WEBVTT - The Big Weekend Pod 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.760 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, all Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:19.079 iTunes and Hillsdale Morning, Laura and even Grays And welcome 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:21.919 to the Big Weekend Pod America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Thank 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:26.000 you for listening today. Our regular weekend and review program 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:29.440 is just jampacked with one subject, really all about Iran, 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:33.120 all about what's going down in Islamabad. This weekend, I'll 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:35.479 talk with John Ellis, the founder of news Items, what 0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:38.000 you ought to be getting every morning in your mailbox 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:40.800 and you just don't need other newspapers if you get 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:43.880 news Items. Eli Lake from Breaking History in the Free Press, 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.960 Charles C. W. Cook, National Review Senior writer, and of 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:50.680 course Ben Dominich will be along today as we focus 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:54.480 on exactly what is it that Iran is lying about. 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:56.880 I mean, they're just lying left and right on the 0:00:56.880 --> 0:01:01.080 web about preconditions. Could be a very short Rekovic like meeting. 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:04.959 Remember there are three categories. You do a Munich fold 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:08.200 like Neville Chamberlain did with Hitler in nineteen thirty eight. 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:11.000 You fold in the effort of trying to get out, 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:13.880 and that's a disaster. Or you can get a surrender 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.360 appomatic style like Grant got from Lee in eighteen sixty five. 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:21.440 Highly unlikely. I don't expect that. All I really want 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:26.240 is for the range to say, stop killing our soldiers, 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:31.000 stop blowing up our weapons production facilities. No moss, no moss. 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:33.920 The strait is open. But if the trait is not open, 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:37.120 I think it's just a Reagan walkout, as in Rekovic 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:40.399 in nineteen eighty six. I'll ask everyone what they think 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:43.280 is going to happen based on what we've seen happen already. 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:48.000 So sit back and enjoy the big weekend pod. Good morning, 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.880 Glory and he being great. A good weekend do all 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:53.120 you folks out there. I hope you've got you a 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:56.560 master's dealing planned. But let's start with as we do 0:01:56.640 --> 0:02:00.480 most fridays. John ellis editor in chief and undred of 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:03.560 news items, and the first item on our list. I'm 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:06.000 glad you put it there, John. I've tried to follow 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:10.360 the anthropic story, the collision with Pete hagset the concerns 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:14.000 about Claude. I don't understand it. Tell me about it. 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:15.840 Well. 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:21.760 Nthropic announced this week that its most recent version of 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:26.800 its AI capability was quote a step change above what 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:31.400 they had previously accomplished, and it was such that they 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:34.280 did not release it publicly because they feared that if 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:37.240 they did, bad actors could get their hands on it 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:43.639 and crack into any software system, business, government, academic. 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:44.119 They could. 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:50.480 Bad actors could get inside of any software program, inside 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:53.600 of anything, and create havoc. 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:56.440 So they did not release the. 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:01.720 New software package or the new AI package, but it 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:06.080 set off alarm bills everywhere, and it's part of this 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:11.200 race to be the ones that arrive at super intelligence first. 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:15.080 And you know, the decision by the company not to 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:17.480 release it public it gives you some idea of how 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:20.760 concerned they were that it would end up in the 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:21.880 hands of bad actors. 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:25.800 John, I'm interested. Why would they announce that our product 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:30.200 is too dangerous to release? Well, I would just not 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:30.880 release it. 0:03:32.520 --> 0:03:36.000 Well they they everybody's been talking about the release of it, 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:40.200 and you know there there have been leaks from Entropic 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:43.280 that that's gotten some of the code out there, so 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.760 I think they felt that they had to act proactively 0:03:47.840 --> 0:03:51.840 and inform the government and inform you know, their major corporate. 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:52.960 Clients and so on and so forth. 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:54.680 And of course if they did that then it would 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.600 leak out anyway. So best to just get out in 0:03:57.600 --> 0:04:01.360 front of it and say, we have this new capability. 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:04.680 It is potentially very dangerous. We're working with all of 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:08.960 the major technology companies to figure out how to limit 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:15.600 or you know, forestall any damage. And were responsible corporate actors. 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:18.479 I think that was the motivation. There's some who think 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:23.000 that it was marketing that they were. They were touting 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:26.120 their their dangerous new model as a way of you know, 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:27.920 gaining customer share. 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:29.440 But I don't think they're. 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:32.039 That That's an old Hollywood trick. I got lots of 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:35.320 friends in the business out there and now create controversy 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:39.520 about a movie just in order to create controversy to 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.880 get more people to see Maybe maybe not. Let's move 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:47.120 this story too, because actually Scott Besseant, Secretarated Treasury and 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:51.799 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Pout we're both talking about AI today. 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:56.960 What were they saying, Well, they're concerned that the capabilities 0:04:57.000 --> 0:05:02.440 of this new entropic package if you well, uh, enable 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:04.960 somebody to get inside of the financial system. 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:07.240 Uh and reek havoc. 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:12.760 So Powell and Bassent uh you know, gathered the major 0:05:12.800 --> 0:05:16.640 banks and the major financial institutions to talk about is 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:18.680 this possible, what are your defenses? 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:21.000 So on and so forth. It gives you some idea 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:22.520 of how. 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:27.839 Concerned people are about the capabilities of not just Anthropics AI, 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:31.599 but but other major companies as well. You know, the 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.599 Federal Reserve Chairman and the Secretary of Treasury don't call 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:38.560 in top bankers in top financial institutions because you know, 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.440 they want to have lunch. They call them in when 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:47.279 there's something close to a crisis. And the announcement of 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:51.200 that Anthropic made this week is in fact a crisis. 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:51.599 It's not. 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.120 I don't believe for a second it's marketing. I think 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:57.520 that they you know, they have been working on this. 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:01.840 They have improved a dramatic and they got to the 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:03.840 end of it and they thought, oh my god, this 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:07.040 is this is way more powerful than we ever imagined, 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:10.560 and we've got to figure out how to put a 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:11.320 fence around it. 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:13.920 Well, it's a validator when the Secretary of the Treasury 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:17.719 and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve both agree danger 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.720 Will Robinson danger. Well, let's go to number two. Nick 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:25.720 ebers Dad has been mister population forever. He's trustworthy, he's believable, 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:30.000 and he's worried about the American population. I suppose the 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:32.839 graying of it, the failure to replace the old with 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:33.360 the young. 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:38.360 Is that what's going to replace the world. Yeah, it's replacement. 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:42.480 And the speed with which it's happening we have obviously 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:46.680 with the baby boomers, we have an aging population. We 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:51.479 all live longer. We therefore take more so security, more medicare. 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:55.120 We already have a very high national debt, we have 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:58.960 very you know, real needs for defense spending. And if 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:02.240 we don't have younger people coming up to be productive 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:06.760 and pay taxes, then the system is under threat. And 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:12.520 that Nick was again raising the alarm that depopulation in 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:16.880 the US is coming much faster than people think and 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:18.840 policymakers need to address it. 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:22.760 It's a very good piece. It's at Aei dot. 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:27.000 Org Ai and that means the childcare tax credit's got 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.480 to go up. That's a real world way to encourage 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:32.440 people to have more children. Number three, This is very 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:37.760 concerning it comes from Pew. Anti Israel ANTIBB sentiment is rising, 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:41.240 and it's especially rising among younger demos. And I think 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:43.480 that's because of TikTok, But what do you think it's 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:44.000 because of it? 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:50.640 I think that there's a sense that we have backed Israel, 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:57.840 you know, with at every turn, and that with President Trump, 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:01.840 who has been his real strongest supporter, BB still gets 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:05.040 out and sort of does what he wants to do 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:07.920 and not what President Trump would prefer him to do 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:11.720 under certain circumstances. And I think that's sort of the 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:16.400 leading edge of a general feeling that we're getting all. 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:20.880 We've supported Israel as no one else has, and they 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:24.200 keep doing things that we would prefer they not do. 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:28.360 If you add that to the media coverage which shows, 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:33.640 you know, carnage in Gaza, carnage in Lebanon, it's like, 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:36.120 why are we sending them all these weapons? 0:08:36.160 --> 0:08:38.560 Why are we giving them all this money? 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.400 It's not you know, it's not whether you agree or 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:46.320 disagree with that, it's that the it's that public opinion 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:52.120 for the first time has moved, I mean traumatically to 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:56.200 an anti Israel position, which is which means you know, 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:59.079 I mean politicians will follow the polls, and so this 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:02.559 has to be of an enormous concern to the Israeli 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:05.120 government and the Israeli people. If you lose the support 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:11.760 of America, Israel's position is exponentially more dire. 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:14.320 I agree. Now I want to ask you about the 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:19.400 Iran negotiations in Islama Bai John, you don't remember Munich 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:22.280 nineteen thirty eight. That's the worst case. You probably do 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:26.120 remember Rekovic in nineteen eighty six when Reagan storms out. 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:29.040 I think that's the likeliest case. And I don't anticipate 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:31.760 in Appomattox, where Iron just throws in the towel. What 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:33.800 do you think we're going to have a Munich, a 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:35.359 Rekovic or an Apomatox. 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:39.720 I think it'll be a Rekovic. I think that there 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:41.800 right now there are doubts in the White House about 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:45.040 whether Advance should have gone at all. Vice President of 0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:46.240 Advance should have gone at all? 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:46.640 I think it. 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:50.760 I think the second guessing has to do with, you know, 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:53.960 we put too much US prestige. 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:55.440 There that it would have been better done by. 0:09:55.800 --> 0:10:02.199 Secretary of Rubio or Witgoff and Kushner. But the Iranians 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.920 think they're winning so they're not they're not likely to 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:09.960 make the concessions that the US is looking for. And 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:12.760 I suspect that once that's clear, which I think it'll 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:16.160 be immediately clear, uh, then the US will walk out. 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:21.479 And then President Trump has to decide whether to quote restart, 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:26.160 end quote the war the you know, that's that's an 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:28.840 enormously difficult decision for him to make. 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:34.640 But I think one thing that that is not is 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:36.720 not paid or not. 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:40.520 You know, people don't really understand or are not hearing 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:44.439 this as much as they might. Uh Iran has been 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:49.640 decimated by these the combined forces attacks. And if the 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:53.160 war were to start to stop tomorrow, uh, and they 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:58.640 didn't have access to the straight, and even if they did, 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:00.800 you know, a kind of easy path on the straight, 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.480 generating millions of dollars a day. The country is in 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:10.480 such disrepair that I'm not sure. I'm not sure that 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:16.240 the government that currently exists can survive. Not. I mean, 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:18.599 we know they're ruthless, we know, you know, we know 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:22.440 all that stuff, But so was the KGB in nineteen 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:25.240 ninety one, and the whole thing came crashing down because 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:29.360 the system didn't deliver it. Maybe, you know, we may 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.800 end up If Iran has won the battle, we may 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:33.840 end up winning the war. 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:36.080 And that's how I look at it. I think Reagan 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.480 walked out of Recovic and three years later that Berlynn 0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:41.040 Wall fell, and five years later George H. W. Bush 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:44.480 presided over the dissolution of the Soviet Union peacefully. That's 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:47.800 my time frame, real quick, John, I'm pulling for ry 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:50.720 McElroy simply because he's a child of County Down I'm 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.720 a great grandson of County Down St Field and County Down. 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:55.480 Who you think is going to win this thing? 0:11:56.920 --> 0:11:59.760 Rory looks like he's running away with it, but we'll 0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:04.280 say it's awfully difficult to know. Saturday they call moving Day, 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:08.079 and after Saturday we should have a pretty good idea. 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.760 We'll talk about it next week. John Ellis go to 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:14.200 news dash Items dot Com, become a subscriber and gets 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:18.440 smart news dashed items dot Com from John Ellison his 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:22.000 wonderful team at News Items. Stay tuned. Eli Lake is 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:28.760 next Walking back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett, joined by 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:31.440 Eli Lake of the Free Press. He's the host of 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:34.679 Breaking History. There's a fabulous new Breaking History this week 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.920 that traces the many ups and downs, mostly downs of 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:41.760 the Iranian people's attempts to shrug off the fanatical regime 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.360 that it's sat at top. It's in nineteen seventy nine, Eli, 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:47.680 welcome back. I want to begin by asking, I'm you're me. 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:49.760 That's always good to talk to you, and I listened 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:53.400 to you talk to I'm boundless this morning, Aviva. And 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:55.920 you know, she read the first line of the president's 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.800 post and it gets me mad because you cannot read 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:02.040 the post about the end of civilization without reading it 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:04.240 to the end and realize he's talking about the regime. 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:07.520 It's a one word change and it's fine. And so 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.600 I thought she was a little hand ringing there. But 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:11.240 let me tell you, let me what do you think 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:12.760 is going to happen? And they're going to be Munich 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:15.880 nineteen thirty eight, Recomic nineteen eighty six, or appamatics on 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.000 our side. 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:20.079 Well, I don't even know if there's going to be 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:23.640 a meeting at this point. Based on the latest rumblings 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:28.560 of the parliament speaker, the Madula speaker Golloboff, he seems 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:30.120 to be I mean, the Iranians are doing what they 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:33.120 always do. They's claiming they got more than they really 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:36.920 did as a precondition for the meeting. I still say 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:40.120 that if they if the straits are open for two 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.199 weeks and that becomes a kind of new status quo, 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:49.079 then given the damage that's been done to Iran's infrastructure 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.240 of their death machine, then that's good because that's the 0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:55.959 last hard power threat and really the only hard power 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:59.720 threat that the Iranians have, which is the Strait of Hormuz. 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:02.480 My suspicion is that the. 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:05.480 Chinese were the ones that forced them to initially accept 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:08.240 the deal, and we'll see kind of whether the Chinese 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:09.800 are still going to pressure because it's not good for 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.160 them to have the straight up Hoore moves in this 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:14.480 sort of situation, even though their vessels are going through. 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:17.959 But on the other hand, yeah, sorry, go ahead. 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.840 Well I was gonna tell you, lie, I expect jd 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:24.560 Vance to go full Michael Corleoni, godfather to this is 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.720 my offer nothing. In other words, you were supposed to 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.800 open the straits, and they didn't open the strait, and 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.640 therefore we got nothing to talk about. And then say 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:36.320 we're leaving, we'll be over in the hotel. When the 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:38.400 ships start moving, we'll come back over and we'll give 0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:39.320 you twenty four hours. 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.400 That's I really do, mister Rochie, and we'd appreciate if 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:44.760 you would handle the gaming fees personally. 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:46.440 Right, Yeah, very good? 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:51.320 Yeah, yeah, no, I agree with you. That should be 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.040 his response. And I also think that JD. Vans understand. 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:58.320 He's a smart man, he's a shrewd politician, and I 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:00.640 think he gets the fact. He gets that he cannot 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:04.560 be humiliated in Islamabad. So that I think is going 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:06.120 to be a top of his mind, and that's good 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.680 for America, it's good for him personally. But that said, 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:13.360 I do think that they the I think the Iranians 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.520 still kind of think they won. Maybe they don't know 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:18.520 the full extent of the damage that's been done. We 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:22.040 saw that really important briefing I think yesterday from General 0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:25.960 Kin and Brad and Admiral Cooper that went through all 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.440 the percentages of like what's been taken away. That doesn't mean, 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.240 by the way, that they don't have some capacity to 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:36.440 still threaten, but it's far diminished, and without their own 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:40.160 defense industry, they can't replenish the stocks. So they really 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:44.040 got to be careful. And so there's still many targets 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.440 to hit inside of Iran, and if that's what they 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.760 want to go back to, they can. I think the 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.920 fact that Trump was willing to have a two week 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.640 you know, negotiation to kind of pause a ceasfire was 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.120 good for markets, and I think that that's been the 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:01.120 real timer the war in a lot of ways that 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:03.560 if things got really bad, I think then that would 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.840 you know, force a retreat in some ways, which I 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:07.080 hope doesn't happen. 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.200 And then keep in mind we haven't. 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:14.280 Tried military force to open the straight upfore moves that 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:20.880 doesn't even have to necessary really be American marines or 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:25.440 special operators that could be mercenaries that are hired by 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:27.160 the Gulf States that have just as much to lose 0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:27.760 here as well. 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:33.240 So on the program afterday, you know, retired Admiral, we've 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:35.960 done this before, we know how to do it. We 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.360 can do it. It's a question of will we did 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:41.960 in nineteen eighty eight. It's expensive, it takes eight airplanes 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.840 in the air the entire time, it takes destroyers coming up. 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:49.080 He thinks for surgery destroyers there. I actually think this 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:52.040 is going to end badly for the Iranians because they 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:55.400 don't know how badly they've been hurt. So I want 0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:56.760 to talk to you about the one thing I heard 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.240 you talking about with Dwain when you were setting up 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:03.280 is U power plants and bridges. Here's shu Hewett's view. 0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:07.159 If you can take out all the bridges leading to 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:10.600 the missile cities around them and they all it's just 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:12.840 a map and we know where the missile cities are, 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:15.479 those are legit targets. And if you can take our 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:20.560 IRGC power greed generators, those are legitimate targets. We don't 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:23.640 want to make the people of IRRIG suffer, we do 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:26.720 want to make it difficult for them remove their missiles. 0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:28.160 Is that a common ground? 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.359 We have common ground one hundred percent there, Which is 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:34.760 why I don't like the term civilian infrastructure because it 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.160 allides the difference that you just put out there. There's 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:39.760 a difference between a million bridges I think are different 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.040 than power plants, because if you took out the power 0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:44.680 plant that was generating electricity for a city like Tehran, 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:47.720 you know you're you're you're going to be responsible for 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:49.720 lots and lots of civilian deaths, people who are the 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:50.679 victims of the regime. 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:54.320 Babies an incubator. If you take a baby's an incubator. 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:56.160 If you choose right, If you take it, you take 0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:59.359 out a power plant that's you know, powering an IRGC 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:02.800 base and you know an attendant like you know, nuclear facility, 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:07.240 then you're mainly just hurting the regime. So there has 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:09.480 to be some sort of distinction. I think we got 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:11.680 in a little bit of problems. Even though I hear 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.800 your point about the tweet and ending civilization and all that, 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:17.400 the president has been somewhat careless with. 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:18.320 How he has described this. 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:21.879 He needed to, I think, maybe make it clear that 0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:25.520 he wasn't targeting the civilians. And that's what that for me, 0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:28.480 is the most important distinction, because that should be the 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.720 because I mean, listen, I still think this. 0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:32.480 War the biggest strategic game. 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.680 There's no guarantee is that sometime I would say, within 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:39.520 six months to a year after combat operations, you're giving 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:44.000 the Iranian people a chance with support from the Mozat 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:45.879 and maybe the CIA or something like that on a 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:49.680 clandesan level. That's the real way to finish the job 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:50.320 for good. 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:52.320 All right now, Eli, I want to go back to 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:56.960 Cold War days. Yeah, the correlation of forces with Soviet doctrine. 0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:59.240 They want to know that the Soviets have the correlation 0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:00.920 of forces going in their favor, and they did in 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.040 the late seventies when the Cubans were all over Africa 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:06.480 and they were in Afghanistan, and then by eighty nine 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:09.960 the wallfalls and by ninety one the Soviet Union is gone. 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:14.080 As the correlation of forces between the United States and 0:19:14.119 --> 0:19:17.720 it's peer China shifted towards the United States in the 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:18.840 last fifteen months. 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:24.720 Well in one sense, in terms of I will have 0:19:24.760 --> 0:19:26.159 to measure it, and we don't know exactly what the 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:30.760 Chinese have. We've demonstrated military capabilities that are I think 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:36.040 a generation ahead, so in that respect, the numbers are 0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:40.639 not really as relevant as the ability plus technology, and 0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:42.080 the Israelis are a huge part of that. 0:19:42.640 --> 0:19:49.600 So absolutely the israel my number one ally, that's by far. Now. 0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:54.800 We've now demonstrated a few times that we can either 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:59.119 capture or kill your leader and leadership without a ground 0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:03.239 invasion force. That's never happened in history. That's extraordinary. And 0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:05.320 the Israelies have demonstrated it more than if I mean, 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:07.040 they did it with Hesbeala, they did it at one 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:09.640 point with the Yemeny Huthi's and they've done it now 0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:13.240 twice in Iran, once with the only military leadership Cadres, 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:15.720 and then this time with the political and military leadership. 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:18.520 That ability is something that the United States has, it's 0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:20.560 something that Israelis have. I don't know that the Chinese 0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:23.639 can do that, and I know that at least when 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:26.560 Plutin started the Ukraine War, he couldn't do that because 0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:29.000 he tried to capture Zelensky in the beginning of the 0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:29.760 war and he failed. 0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:32.400 I'm hoping you can stay with me during the break 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:34.480 so I can put it on the Big Weekend Pod, Eli, 0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:36.679 because I got there's a big question to ask you 0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:40.000 just don't go anywhere America. You're watching the Salem News Channel, 0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:42.600 stay tuned to it coming up later after me tonight 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:45.600 we'll have Larry Elder will be coming along and this 0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:48.000 will be part of the Big Weekend Pod, which is 0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:51.480 available over it highly concentrated you My podcast every weekend, 0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:55.200 Eli Lakes Breaking History is a must listen to. It's 0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:58.880 a history of the four critical times the Iranian people 0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:02.119 have tried to throw up the regime of Mostation. I mean, 0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:05.040 it's pending in the water of thirty five thousand people 0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:07.679 I'll be right back with Eli. Stay tuned. You know, 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:09.680 I want to ask you if you share my perception 0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:16.320 about one thing. If we leave Iran in control, real 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:19.240 or imagined, the straight of Horror Moves, imagine meing people 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:22.480 won't go through it because they're afraid. That's a huge 0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:26.199 loss for Donald Trump. Cannot be interpreted as other than 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:28.679 a huge loss. Now. I think they blinked when they 0:21:28.720 --> 0:21:31.080 agreed to a two week seach fire and of the talks. 0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:33.800 But now they want Donald Trump to blink, and I 0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:36.560 think it would be a huge loss, and he would 0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:39.280 understand it. His ego would understand it as a loss. 0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:40.720 That's why I don't think it's going to happen. But 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:41.920 do you agree with my assessment? 0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:46.480 With one caveat, I think it's a big loss, but 0:21:46.560 --> 0:21:51.080 it's also there we have to understand it's surmountable. What 0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:54.239 I mean by that is that if it becomes you know, 0:21:54.400 --> 0:21:57.040