Speaker 1: Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, all Things
Speaker 1: hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take
Speaker 1: advantage of the many free online courses there, and of
Speaker 1: course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them
Speaker 1: at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple
Speaker 1: iTunes and Hillsdale Morning, Laura and even Grays And welcome
Speaker 1: to the Big Weekend Pod America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Thank
Speaker 1: you for listening today. Our regular weekend and review program
Speaker 1: is just jampacked with one subject, really all about Iran,
Speaker 1: all about what's going down in Islamabad. This weekend, I'll
Speaker 1: talk with John Ellis, the founder of news Items, what
Speaker 1: you ought to be getting every morning in your mailbox
Speaker 1: and you just don't need other newspapers if you get
Speaker 1: news Items. Eli Lake from Breaking History in the Free Press,
Speaker 1: Charles C. W. Cook, National Review Senior writer, and of
Speaker 1: course Ben Dominich will be along today as we focus
Speaker 1: on exactly what is it that Iran is lying about.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're just lying left and right on the
Speaker 1: web about preconditions. Could be a very short Rekovic like meeting.
Speaker 1: Remember there are three categories. You do a Munich fold
Speaker 1: like Neville Chamberlain did with Hitler in nineteen thirty eight.
Speaker 1: You fold in the effort of trying to get out,
Speaker 1: and that's a disaster. Or you can get a surrender
Speaker 1: appomatic style like Grant got from Lee in eighteen sixty five.
Speaker 1: Highly unlikely. I don't expect that. All I really want
Speaker 1: is for the range to say, stop killing our soldiers,
Speaker 1: stop blowing up our weapons production facilities. No moss, no moss.
Speaker 1: The strait is open. But if the trait is not open,
Speaker 1: I think it's just a Reagan walkout, as in Rekovic
Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty six. I'll ask everyone what they think
Speaker 1: is going to happen based on what we've seen happen already.
Speaker 1: So sit back and enjoy the big weekend pod. Good morning,
Speaker 1: Glory and he being great. A good weekend do all
Speaker 1: you folks out there. I hope you've got you a
Speaker 1: master's dealing planned. But let's start with as we do
Speaker 1: most fridays. John ellis editor in chief and undred of
Speaker 1: news items, and the first item on our list. I'm
Speaker 1: glad you put it there, John. I've tried to follow
Speaker 1: the anthropic story, the collision with Pete hagset the concerns
Speaker 1: about Claude. I don't understand it. Tell me about it.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 3: Nthropic announced this week that its most recent version of
Speaker 3: its AI capability was quote a step change above what
Speaker 3: they had previously accomplished, and it was such that they
Speaker 3: did not release it publicly because they feared that if
Speaker 3: they did, bad actors could get their hands on it
Speaker 3: and crack into any software system, business, government, academic.
Speaker 2: They could.
Speaker 3: Bad actors could get inside of any software program, inside
Speaker 3: of anything, and create havoc.
Speaker 2: So they did not release the.
Speaker 3: New software package or the new AI package, but it
Speaker 3: set off alarm bills everywhere, and it's part of this
Speaker 3: race to be the ones that arrive at super intelligence first.
Speaker 3: And you know, the decision by the company not to
Speaker 3: release it public it gives you some idea of how
Speaker 3: concerned they were that it would end up in the
Speaker 3: hands of bad actors.
Speaker 1: John, I'm interested. Why would they announce that our product
Speaker 1: is too dangerous to release? Well, I would just not
Speaker 1: release it.
Speaker 3: Well they they everybody's been talking about the release of it,
Speaker 3: and you know there there have been leaks from Entropic
Speaker 3: that that's gotten some of the code out there, so
Speaker 3: I think they felt that they had to act proactively
Speaker 3: and inform the government and inform you know, their major corporate.
Speaker 2: Clients and so on and so forth.
Speaker 3: And of course if they did that then it would
Speaker 3: leak out anyway. So best to just get out in
Speaker 3: front of it and say, we have this new capability.
Speaker 3: It is potentially very dangerous. We're working with all of
Speaker 3: the major technology companies to figure out how to limit
Speaker 3: or you know, forestall any damage. And were responsible corporate actors.
Speaker 3: I think that was the motivation. There's some who think
Speaker 3: that it was marketing that they were. They were touting
Speaker 3: their their dangerous new model as a way of you know,
Speaker 3: gaining customer share.
Speaker 2: But I don't think they're.
Speaker 1: That That's an old Hollywood trick. I got lots of
Speaker 1: friends in the business out there and now create controversy
Speaker 1: about a movie just in order to create controversy to
Speaker 1: get more people to see Maybe maybe not. Let's move
Speaker 1: this story too, because actually Scott Besseant, Secretarated Treasury and
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Pout we're both talking about AI today.
Speaker 3: What were they saying, Well, they're concerned that the capabilities
Speaker 3: of this new entropic package if you well, uh, enable
Speaker 3: somebody to get inside of the financial system.
Speaker 2: Uh and reek havoc.
Speaker 3: So Powell and Bassent uh you know, gathered the major
Speaker 3: banks and the major financial institutions to talk about is
Speaker 3: this possible, what are your defenses?
Speaker 2: So on and so forth. It gives you some idea
Speaker 2: of how.
Speaker 3: Concerned people are about the capabilities of not just Anthropics AI,
Speaker 3: but but other major companies as well. You know, the
Speaker 3: Federal Reserve Chairman and the Secretary of Treasury don't call
Speaker 3: in top bankers in top financial institutions because you know,
Speaker 3: they want to have lunch. They call them in when
Speaker 3: there's something close to a crisis. And the announcement of
Speaker 3: that Anthropic made this week is in fact a crisis.
Speaker 2: It's not.
Speaker 3: I don't believe for a second it's marketing. I think
Speaker 3: that they you know, they have been working on this.
Speaker 3: They have improved a dramatic and they got to the
Speaker 3: end of it and they thought, oh my god, this
Speaker 3: is this is way more powerful than we ever imagined,
Speaker 3: and we've got to figure out how to put a
Speaker 3: fence around it.
Speaker 1: Well, it's a validator when the Secretary of the Treasury
Speaker 1: and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve both agree danger
Speaker 1: Will Robinson danger. Well, let's go to number two. Nick
Speaker 1: ebers Dad has been mister population forever. He's trustworthy, he's believable,
Speaker 1: and he's worried about the American population. I suppose the
Speaker 1: graying of it, the failure to replace the old with
Speaker 1: the young.
Speaker 3: Is that what's going to replace the world. Yeah, it's replacement.
Speaker 3: And the speed with which it's happening we have obviously
Speaker 3: with the baby boomers, we have an aging population. We
Speaker 3: all live longer. We therefore take more so security, more medicare.
Speaker 3: We already have a very high national debt, we have
Speaker 3: very you know, real needs for defense spending. And if
Speaker 3: we don't have younger people coming up to be productive
Speaker 3: and pay taxes, then the system is under threat. And
Speaker 3: that Nick was again raising the alarm that depopulation in
Speaker 3: the US is coming much faster than people think and
Speaker 3: policymakers need to address it.
Speaker 2: It's a very good piece. It's at Aei dot.
Speaker 1: Org Ai and that means the childcare tax credit's got
Speaker 1: to go up. That's a real world way to encourage
Speaker 1: people to have more children. Number three, This is very
Speaker 1: concerning it comes from Pew. Anti Israel ANTIBB sentiment is rising,
Speaker 1: and it's especially rising among younger demos. And I think
Speaker 1: that's because of TikTok, But what do you think it's
Speaker 1: because of it?
Speaker 3: I think that there's a sense that we have backed Israel,
Speaker 3: you know, with at every turn, and that with President Trump,
Speaker 3: who has been his real strongest supporter, BB still gets
Speaker 3: out and sort of does what he wants to do
Speaker 3: and not what President Trump would prefer him to do
Speaker 3: under certain circumstances. And I think that's sort of the
Speaker 3: leading edge of a general feeling that we're getting all.
Speaker 3: We've supported Israel as no one else has, and they
Speaker 3: keep doing things that we would prefer they not do.
Speaker 3: If you add that to the media coverage which shows,
Speaker 3: you know, carnage in Gaza, carnage in Lebanon, it's like,
Speaker 3: why are we sending them all these weapons?
Speaker 2: Why are we giving them all this money?
Speaker 3: It's not you know, it's not whether you agree or
Speaker 3: disagree with that, it's that the it's that public opinion
Speaker 3: for the first time has moved, I mean traumatically to
Speaker 3: an anti Israel position, which is which means you know,
Speaker 3: I mean politicians will follow the polls, and so this
Speaker 3: has to be of an enormous concern to the Israeli
Speaker 3: government and the Israeli people. If you lose the support
Speaker 3: of America, Israel's position is exponentially more dire.
Speaker 1: I agree. Now I want to ask you about the
Speaker 1: Iran negotiations in Islama Bai John, you don't remember Munich
Speaker 1: nineteen thirty eight. That's the worst case. You probably do
Speaker 1: remember Rekovic in nineteen eighty six when Reagan storms out.
Speaker 1: I think that's the likeliest case. And I don't anticipate
Speaker 1: in Appomattox, where Iron just throws in the towel. What
Speaker 1: do you think we're going to have a Munich, a
Speaker 1: Rekovic or an Apomatox.
Speaker 3: I think it'll be a Rekovic. I think that there
Speaker 3: right now there are doubts in the White House about
Speaker 3: whether Advance should have gone at all. Vice President of
Speaker 3: Advance should have gone at all?
Speaker 2: I think it.
Speaker 3: I think the second guessing has to do with, you know,
Speaker 3: we put too much US prestige.
Speaker 2: There that it would have been better done by.
Speaker 3: Secretary of Rubio or Witgoff and Kushner. But the Iranians
Speaker 3: think they're winning so they're not they're not likely to
Speaker 3: make the concessions that the US is looking for. And
Speaker 3: I suspect that once that's clear, which I think it'll
Speaker 3: be immediately clear, uh, then the US will walk out.
Speaker 3: And then President Trump has to decide whether to quote restart,
Speaker 3: end quote the war the you know, that's that's an
Speaker 3: enormously difficult decision for him to make.
Speaker 2: But I think one thing that that is not is
Speaker 2: not paid or not.
Speaker 3: You know, people don't really understand or are not hearing
Speaker 3: this as much as they might. Uh Iran has been
Speaker 3: decimated by these the combined forces attacks. And if the
Speaker 3: war were to start to stop tomorrow, uh, and they
Speaker 3: didn't have access to the straight, and even if they did,
Speaker 3: you know, a kind of easy path on the straight,
Speaker 3: generating millions of dollars a day. The country is in
Speaker 3: such disrepair that I'm not sure. I'm not sure that
Speaker 3: the government that currently exists can survive. Not. I mean,
Speaker 3: we know they're ruthless, we know, you know, we know
Speaker 3: all that stuff, But so was the KGB in nineteen
Speaker 3: ninety one, and the whole thing came crashing down because
Speaker 3: the system didn't deliver it. Maybe, you know, we may
Speaker 3: end up If Iran has won the battle, we may
Speaker 3: end up winning the war.
Speaker 1: And that's how I look at it. I think Reagan
Speaker 1: walked out of Recovic and three years later that Berlynn
Speaker 1: Wall fell, and five years later George H. W. Bush
Speaker 1: presided over the dissolution of the Soviet Union peacefully. That's
Speaker 1: my time frame, real quick, John, I'm pulling for ry
Speaker 1: McElroy simply because he's a child of County Down I'm
Speaker 1: a great grandson of County Down St Field and County Down.
Speaker 1: Who you think is going to win this thing?
Speaker 3: Rory looks like he's running away with it, but we'll
Speaker 3: say it's awfully difficult to know. Saturday they call moving Day,
Speaker 3: and after Saturday we should have a pretty good idea.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about it next week. John Ellis go to
Speaker 1: news dash Items dot Com, become a subscriber and gets
Speaker 1: smart news dashed items dot Com from John Ellison his
Speaker 1: wonderful team at News Items. Stay tuned. Eli Lake is
Speaker 1: next Walking back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett, joined by
Speaker 1: Eli Lake of the Free Press. He's the host of
Speaker 1: Breaking History. There's a fabulous new Breaking History this week
Speaker 1: that traces the many ups and downs, mostly downs of
Speaker 1: the Iranian people's attempts to shrug off the fanatical regime
Speaker 1: that it's sat at top. It's in nineteen seventy nine, Eli,
Speaker 1: welcome back. I want to begin by asking, I'm you're me.
Speaker 1: That's always good to talk to you, and I listened
Speaker 1: to you talk to I'm boundless this morning, Aviva. And
Speaker 1: you know, she read the first line of the president's
Speaker 1: post and it gets me mad because you cannot read
Speaker 1: the post about the end of civilization without reading it
Speaker 1: to the end and realize he's talking about the regime.
Speaker 1: It's a one word change and it's fine. And so
Speaker 1: I thought she was a little hand ringing there. But
Speaker 1: let me tell you, let me what do you think
Speaker 1: is going to happen? And they're going to be Munich
Speaker 1: nineteen thirty eight, Recomic nineteen eighty six, or appamatics on
Speaker 1: our side.
Speaker 4: Well, I don't even know if there's going to be
Speaker 4: a meeting at this point. Based on the latest rumblings
Speaker 4: of the parliament speaker, the Madula speaker Golloboff, he seems
Speaker 4: to be I mean, the Iranians are doing what they
Speaker 4: always do. They's claiming they got more than they really
Speaker 4: did as a precondition for the meeting. I still say
Speaker 4: that if they if the straits are open for two
Speaker 4: weeks and that becomes a kind of new status quo,
Speaker 4: then given the damage that's been done to Iran's infrastructure
Speaker 4: of their death machine, then that's good because that's the
Speaker 4: last hard power threat and really the only hard power
Speaker 4: threat that the Iranians have, which is the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaker 5: My suspicion is that the.
Speaker 4: Chinese were the ones that forced them to initially accept
Speaker 4: the deal, and we'll see kind of whether the Chinese
Speaker 4: are still going to pressure because it's not good for
Speaker 4: them to have the straight up Hoore moves in this
Speaker 4: sort of situation, even though their vessels are going through.
Speaker 4: But on the other hand, yeah, sorry, go ahead.
Speaker 1: Well I was gonna tell you, lie, I expect jd
Speaker 1: Vance to go full Michael Corleoni, godfather to this is
Speaker 1: my offer nothing. In other words, you were supposed to
Speaker 1: open the straits, and they didn't open the strait, and
Speaker 1: therefore we got nothing to talk about. And then say
Speaker 1: we're leaving, we'll be over in the hotel. When the
Speaker 1: ships start moving, we'll come back over and we'll give
Speaker 1: you twenty four hours.
Speaker 4: That's I really do, mister Rochie, and we'd appreciate if
Speaker 4: you would handle the gaming fees personally.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, very good?
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, no, I agree with you. That should be
Speaker 4: his response. And I also think that JD. Vans understand.
Speaker 4: He's a smart man, he's a shrewd politician, and I
Speaker 4: think he gets the fact. He gets that he cannot
Speaker 4: be humiliated in Islamabad. So that I think is going
Speaker 4: to be a top of his mind, and that's good
Speaker 4: for America, it's good for him personally. But that said,
Speaker 4: I do think that they the I think the Iranians
Speaker 4: still kind of think they won. Maybe they don't know
Speaker 4: the full extent of the damage that's been done. We
Speaker 4: saw that really important briefing I think yesterday from General
Speaker 4: Kin and Brad and Admiral Cooper that went through all
Speaker 4: the percentages of like what's been taken away. That doesn't mean,
Speaker 4: by the way, that they don't have some capacity to
Speaker 4: still threaten, but it's far diminished, and without their own
Speaker 4: defense industry, they can't replenish the stocks. So they really
Speaker 4: got to be careful. And so there's still many targets
Speaker 4: to hit inside of Iran, and if that's what they
Speaker 4: want to go back to, they can. I think the
Speaker 4: fact that Trump was willing to have a two week
Speaker 4: you know, negotiation to kind of pause a ceasfire was
Speaker 4: good for markets, and I think that that's been the
Speaker 4: real timer the war in a lot of ways that
Speaker 4: if things got really bad, I think then that would
Speaker 4: you know, force a retreat in some ways, which I
Speaker 4: hope doesn't happen.
Speaker 1: And then keep in mind we haven't.
Speaker 4: Tried military force to open the straight upfore moves that
Speaker 4: doesn't even have to necessary really be American marines or
Speaker 4: special operators that could be mercenaries that are hired by
Speaker 4: the Gulf States that have just as much to lose
Speaker 4: here as well.
Speaker 1: So on the program afterday, you know, retired Admiral, we've
Speaker 1: done this before, we know how to do it. We
Speaker 1: can do it. It's a question of will we did
Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty eight. It's expensive, it takes eight airplanes
Speaker 1: in the air the entire time, it takes destroyers coming up.
Speaker 1: He thinks for surgery destroyers there. I actually think this
Speaker 1: is going to end badly for the Iranians because they
Speaker 1: don't know how badly they've been hurt. So I want
Speaker 1: to talk to you about the one thing I heard
Speaker 1: you talking about with Dwain when you were setting up
Speaker 1: is U power plants and bridges. Here's shu Hewett's view.
Speaker 1: If you can take out all the bridges leading to
Speaker 1: the missile cities around them and they all it's just
Speaker 1: a map and we know where the missile cities are,
Speaker 1: those are legit targets. And if you can take our
Speaker 1: IRGC power greed generators, those are legitimate targets. We don't
Speaker 1: want to make the people of IRRIG suffer, we do
Speaker 1: want to make it difficult for them remove their missiles.
Speaker 1: Is that a common ground?
Speaker 4: We have common ground one hundred percent there, Which is
Speaker 4: why I don't like the term civilian infrastructure because it
Speaker 4: allides the difference that you just put out there. There's
Speaker 4: a difference between a million bridges I think are different
Speaker 4: than power plants, because if you took out the power
Speaker 4: plant that was generating electricity for a city like Tehran,
Speaker 4: you know you're you're you're going to be responsible for
Speaker 4: lots and lots of civilian deaths, people who are the
Speaker 4: victims of the regime.
Speaker 1: Babies an incubator. If you take a baby's an incubator.
Speaker 4: If you choose right, If you take it, you take
Speaker 4: out a power plant that's you know, powering an IRGC
Speaker 4: base and you know an attendant like you know, nuclear facility,
Speaker 4: then you're mainly just hurting the regime. So there has
Speaker 4: to be some sort of distinction. I think we got
Speaker 4: in a little bit of problems. Even though I hear
Speaker 4: your point about the tweet and ending civilization and all that,
Speaker 4: the president has been somewhat careless with.
Speaker 5: How he has described this.
Speaker 4: He needed to, I think, maybe make it clear that
Speaker 4: he wasn't targeting the civilians. And that's what that for me,
Speaker 4: is the most important distinction, because that should be the
Speaker 4: because I mean, listen, I still think this.
Speaker 1: War the biggest strategic game.
Speaker 4: There's no guarantee is that sometime I would say, within
Speaker 4: six months to a year after combat operations, you're giving
Speaker 4: the Iranian people a chance with support from the Mozat
Speaker 4: and maybe the CIA or something like that on a
Speaker 4: clandesan level. That's the real way to finish the job
Speaker 4: for good.
Speaker 1: All right now, Eli, I want to go back to
Speaker 1: Cold War days. Yeah, the correlation of forces with Soviet doctrine.
Speaker 1: They want to know that the Soviets have the correlation
Speaker 1: of forces going in their favor, and they did in
Speaker 1: the late seventies when the Cubans were all over Africa
Speaker 1: and they were in Afghanistan, and then by eighty nine
Speaker 1: the wallfalls and by ninety one the Soviet Union is gone.
Speaker 1: As the correlation of forces between the United States and
Speaker 1: it's peer China shifted towards the United States in the
Speaker 1: last fifteen months.
Speaker 4: Well in one sense, in terms of I will have
Speaker 4: to measure it, and we don't know exactly what the
Speaker 4: Chinese have. We've demonstrated military capabilities that are I think
Speaker 4: a generation ahead, so in that respect, the numbers are
Speaker 4: not really as relevant as the ability plus technology, and
Speaker 4: the Israelis are a huge part of that.
Speaker 1: So absolutely the israel my number one ally, that's by far. Now.
Speaker 4: We've now demonstrated a few times that we can either
Speaker 4: capture or kill your leader and leadership without a ground
Speaker 4: invasion force. That's never happened in history. That's extraordinary. And
Speaker 4: the Israelies have demonstrated it more than if I mean,
Speaker 4: they did it with Hesbeala, they did it at one
Speaker 4: point with the Yemeny Huthi's and they've done it now
Speaker 4: twice in Iran, once with the only military leadership Cadres,
Speaker 4: and then this time with the political and military leadership.
Speaker 4: That ability is something that the United States has, it's
Speaker 4: something that Israelis have. I don't know that the Chinese
Speaker 4: can do that, and I know that at least when
Speaker 4: Plutin started the Ukraine War, he couldn't do that because
Speaker 4: he tried to capture Zelensky in the beginning of the
Speaker 4: war and he failed.
Speaker 1: I'm hoping you can stay with me during the break
Speaker 1: so I can put it on the Big Weekend Pod, Eli,
Speaker 1: because I got there's a big question to ask you
Speaker 1: just don't go anywhere America. You're watching the Salem News Channel,
Speaker 1: stay tuned to it coming up later after me tonight
Speaker 1: we'll have Larry Elder will be coming along and this
Speaker 1: will be part of the Big Weekend Pod, which is
Speaker 1: available over it highly concentrated you My podcast every weekend,
Speaker 1: Eli Lakes Breaking History is a must listen to. It's
Speaker 1: a history of the four critical times the Iranian people
Speaker 1: have tried to throw up the regime of Mostation. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's pending in the water of thirty five thousand people
Speaker 1: I'll be right back with Eli. Stay tuned. You know,
Speaker 1: I want to ask you if you share my perception
Speaker 1: about one thing. If we leave Iran in control, real
Speaker 1: or imagined, the straight of Horror Moves, imagine meing people
Speaker 1: won't go through it because they're afraid. That's a huge
Speaker 1: loss for Donald Trump. Cannot be interpreted as other than
Speaker 1: a huge loss. Now. I think they blinked when they
Speaker 1: agreed to a two week seach fire and of the talks.
Speaker 1: But now they want Donald Trump to blink, and I
Speaker 1: think it would be a huge loss, and he would
Speaker 1: understand it. His ego would understand it as a loss.
Speaker 1: That's why I don't think it's going to happen. But
Speaker 1: do you agree with my assessment?
Speaker 4: With one caveat, I think it's a big loss, but
Speaker 4: it's also there we have to understand it's surmountable. What
Speaker 4: I mean by that is that if it becomes you know,
Speaker 4: the new reality for the next you know, months or years,
Speaker 4: that the Iranians controlled the straight up Horror Moves and
Speaker 4: the straight up her Moves becomes no longer an important
Speaker 4: friendshipment point because the Saudis are already expanding the capacity
Speaker 4: of their pipelines, and there are other routes.
Speaker 1: That we can take.
Speaker 4: The Israelis now have an agreement with Somali Land which
Speaker 4: gives them some visibility and ability to project power in
Speaker 4: the Red Sea. So there's a lot of things that
Speaker 4: can be done to mitigate it. It's the biggest and
Speaker 4: highest leverage point at this moment because of all the
Speaker 4: traffic that's effectively kind of backed up. But on the
Speaker 4: other hand, it's not like it's going to be a
Speaker 4: winner for Iran, you know, for years to come, or
Speaker 4: a new status quo, and people don't have any other choice.
Speaker 4: But because they have the only place they can go
Speaker 4: as the straight up four moves, there are alternatives and
Speaker 4: those alternatives will be will make themselves apparent and almost
Speaker 4: because the market will demand it.
Speaker 5: But at the same time it will be.
Speaker 4: A big loss because before the war, the Iranians weren't
Speaker 4: doing this and now they are, and then they have
Speaker 4: to understand they pay a price for it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it would actually split the Republican Party,
Speaker 1: not the not the new Neil Ishalla's two percent. But
Speaker 1: the Reagan Conservatives would say that's a loss and that
Speaker 1: would be bad for the projects, right Elilake. I was
Speaker 1: going to talk to you. Follow him on exit Elilake
Speaker 1: and listen to thank you, my friend. You will welcome
Speaker 1: back in America. I'm Hugh Hewitt, joined by Charles C. W. Cook.
Speaker 1: He's a senior writer and editor at National Review. You
Speaker 1: hear him often on the Editors. He has his own podcast,
Speaker 1: Charles C. W. Cook Podcast. Charles. First question, because this
Speaker 1: is about history a lot today. Did you read in
Speaker 1: history when you were at Oxford or were you in
Speaker 1: economics or philosophy? What did you read in.
Speaker 5: I've read history and politics is the of course.
Speaker 1: Okay, very good. Then I'm going to give you eight choices.
Speaker 1: The Piece of Tislett eighteen oh seven, Congress of Vienna
Speaker 1: eighteen fourteen, Appomattics eighteen sixty five, Congress of Berlin eighteen
Speaker 1: seventy eight, Munich, Hitler and Chamberlain nineteen thirty eight, Yalta
Speaker 1: nineteen forty five, Potsdam nineteen forty five, and Recubec, Reagan
Speaker 1: and Gorby nineteen eighty six. The meetings in Islamabad this
Speaker 1: weekend will most resemble which of those?
Speaker 5: I have no idea.
Speaker 6: I'm not sure it resembles any of those, to be
Speaker 6: honest with you, I'm not quite sure what's going on.
Speaker 6: I caught the tail end of your lot section with Eli.
Speaker 5: I love Eli.
Speaker 6: He's fantastic. I think he's a bit more optimistic than
Speaker 6: I am. This feels very precarious to me, and in
Speaker 6: one sense, it feels nothing like any of those eight
Speaker 6: because I'm not sure it's real here.
Speaker 1: I think it feels the most like Rekkubec. Now you're
Speaker 1: too young, but I was part of the Reagan administration.
Speaker 1: We got all hepped up. We're watching the TV. Richuald
Speaker 1: Peerl was in the bathtub. We thought there was going
Speaker 1: to be an agreement to end all agreements, and we
Speaker 1: didn't know the whole time. Gorbi wanted SDI and Reagan
Speaker 1: kept saying no, and so Reagan left Mad, George Shultz
Speaker 1: left Mad, and Gorby left Mad, and then three years
Speaker 1: later the Berlin Walk came down. So I think this
Speaker 1: is not going to go very long because they're so
Speaker 1: far apart.
Speaker 6: Perhaps what worries me is I'm worried that we're in
Speaker 6: a precarious position where we have an extraordinary military that
Speaker 6: can do extraordinary things. Eli is right to point that out,
Speaker 6: but we have a problem with the straight off hooor moves.
Speaker 6: That is solvable only with action that the public is
Speaker 6: skittish about, and that Trump knows the public it's skittish about.
Speaker 6: And so what we have effectively done here is allowed
Speaker 6: the Iranians to know our pressure point. I mean it's
Speaker 6: not a perfect analogy, of course, but one of the
Speaker 6: reasons we correctly don't want them to have nuclear weapons
Speaker 6: is when you get nuclear weapons, as in North Korea,
Speaker 6: you're able to exert power over the United States. And
Speaker 6: this is power over the United States. Although I think
Speaker 6: you're right that this isn't going to hold I don't
Speaker 6: quite know what worlds it's not going to hold in
Speaker 6: in a couple of weeks. I assume you are more
Speaker 6: optimistic on this than i am.
Speaker 1: Admiral Montgomery was on yesterday. People can go to my
Speaker 1: YouTube channel if they'd like to hear what are real.
Speaker 1: He's a rear admiral, He's run carrier strike groups, and
Speaker 1: he laid it out pretty matter of fact. You have
Speaker 1: to have eight airplanes in the air at all times.
Speaker 1: You have the helos at night, eight tens in the
Speaker 1: daytime to take out speedboats. You need destroyers cruising with
Speaker 1: the convoys and you can secure it. We don't need
Speaker 1: anyone on the land. We did it in nineteen eighty eight.
Speaker 1: There is some risk, a little bit much less risk
Speaker 1: than if they're not convoid. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: you can make a cost imposition on Iran's infrastructure that
Speaker 1: serves the IERGC every time they take a shot at
Speaker 1: one of the tankers. So I read an interesting thing today, Charlie,
Speaker 1: the United airb Emirates, which next day Israel is our
Speaker 1: best ally in the region, little Sparta. They will not
Speaker 1: pay the toll. They are not going to do it period,
Speaker 1: not now, not ever, never. So we're going to have
Speaker 1: a battle of the straight or Iran is going to
Speaker 1: get a faith saving way to stop being the world's
Speaker 1: worst regime. And I'm kind of leaning towards that's going
Speaker 1: to be the result after a period of time.
Speaker 6: Certain Yeah, well that's the optimistic view. I absolutely hope
Speaker 6: you're right.
Speaker 5: It's a violation of international law.
Speaker 6: It's a corruption of the Anglo American naval supremacy we've
Speaker 6: enjoyed since eighteen fifteen to have tolls that I understand
Speaker 6: that he shouldn't always be taken literally.
Speaker 5: I didn't like to read that.
Speaker 6: President Trump had mused about splitting the tolls.
Speaker 5: That was not particularly helpful.
Speaker 6: I just worry that unless we have some sort of
Speaker 6: resolution here, and that would be a resolution a battle
Speaker 6: of the Strait, that we have handed Iran the knowledge
Speaker 6: of how to put us on the back foot. And
Speaker 6: I worry that we don't have enough.
Speaker 5: Public support full a battle of the Strait. But I
Speaker 5: hope I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: Well, it would be a repudiation of freedom of navigation,
Speaker 1: which would have implications for every country in the world,
Speaker 1: and it would it would empower every petty dictator at
Speaker 1: every narrow choke point in the world. And I don't
Speaker 1: think we can allow that. The bridge never did. We can't, right, No.
Speaker 5: We absolutely can't allow it. Look, I don't like this phrase.
Speaker 6: People say, taco. I think it's childish. I also think
Speaker 6: it's often really self. It sort of tells on oneself
Speaker 6: because people use it who want Trump to back down
Speaker 6: and to criticize him for doing it.
Speaker 5: But he is meterial que Oh.
Speaker 1: I don't doubt absolutely, but I think it may in
Speaker 1: fact be part of the strategy. I'm coming back with
Speaker 1: Charles during the break telling you about the political upside
Speaker 1: and downside a head for President Trump and JD Vance.
Speaker 1: Don't go anywhere. It'll be on the big weekend pot
Speaker 1: and you'll be back after the break. I'm back with
Speaker 1: Charles C. Charles, I read the Islamabad meeting this way.
Speaker 1: JD Vance went to bring a Thori taught that's with him.
Speaker 1: The real negotiators of Wig, Cop and Kushner, and they've
Speaker 1: been with these guys in that room before. But the
Speaker 1: key negotiator is President Trump, and he intuits, after a
Speaker 1: lifetime of deal making, if he comes back with other
Speaker 1: than an open straight or a walkout, it's an enormous loss.
Speaker 1: He had a big win. I thought when Iran blinked
Speaker 1: and agreed to a two week seach fire. They backtrack immediately,
Speaker 1: but it was a win for the present. But if
Speaker 1: they come back and they get any kind of control
Speaker 1: over the Strait, that's an enormous loss. And I don't
Speaker 1: know that he ever recovers from that. So much for
Speaker 1: the art of the deal.
Speaker 5: You agree with that assessment, I absolutely agree with that.
Speaker 6: I mean, if you look at it from the perspective
Speaker 6: of someone who doesn't follow politics, by which I don't
Speaker 6: mean someone who is stupid or ignorant.
Speaker 5: But somebody who just.
Speaker 6: Doesn't follow politics closely, they're going to say, well, the
Speaker 6: status currency was fine. I don't think he was fine,
Speaker 6: but I think from that perspective they would say, look,
Speaker 6: we had gas prices at you know, three twenty five,
Speaker 6: and we weren't at war, and the Strait was open,
Speaker 6: and now after our action, gas is at four. I
Speaker 6: know we'll go down probably, but gas is at four
Speaker 6: dollars plus and we are at war and the strait's close,
Speaker 6: And I think it's going to be a really hard
Speaker 6: sell for that person to say. But look or what
Speaker 6: Iran has done for forty six years, look at the
Speaker 6: nature of the regime, look at what they did to
Speaker 6: their own people, including massacring them recently. I think most
Speaker 6: people would say, well, yeah, okay, but we went over
Speaker 6: there and made things worse.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 6: I'm not making that case myself, but I think Trump
Speaker 6: has to know, and he does have a.
Speaker 5: Pretty good horse sense politically.
Speaker 6: I think he has to know that that's how it
Speaker 6: will be cast, and that that will be a fairly
Speaker 6: popular view, especially given that there's quite a lot of
Speaker 6: dissension on the right on this point. Not statistically, your
Speaker 6: right to describe them as two or three percent. But
Speaker 6: those people have big megaphones and they are part of
Speaker 6: the movement. So yeah, I think domestically he cannot leave.
Speaker 5: It like this.
Speaker 1: Domestically, how about historically, I think it will. It will
Speaker 1: be the first line in his obituary he lost the.
Speaker 7: War with Iron.
Speaker 6: Yeah, he came out, he would he would, Yeah.
Speaker 1: And that cannot be in Donald Trump's oh bit. I'll
Speaker 1: be right back with Charles CW. Cook. Don't go anywhere,
Speaker 1: We'll come back in America. I'm Hugh hewittt back with
Speaker 1: Charles C. W. Cook. I recommend his podcast to you
Speaker 1: and the editors on which he appears. Everything he writes
Speaker 1: over a National View as well, Charles. In Cold War One,
Speaker 1: there were two ways of examining the competition between the
Speaker 1: United States and the Soviet Union. Our way was like
Speaker 1: sort of the time magazine. We've got this many missiles,
Speaker 1: this many warheads, as many soldier sailors, airmen and marines,
Speaker 1: and there in these places, and there's NATO and over
Speaker 1: here there the warsaw pack and the Soviets had this.
Speaker 1: But the Soviets had something called the correlation of forces,
Speaker 1: which was a little bit more fluid. They'd talk about
Speaker 1: the Cubans in Africa, they would talk about Castro in
Speaker 1: our backyard, and they would do a different kind of equation.
Speaker 1: Let's use Cold War one logic, correlation of forces. In
Speaker 1: the fifteen months since Donald Trump has returned to the
Speaker 1: Oval office, how's the correlation of forces evolved between China
Speaker 1: and the United States.
Speaker 6: I'm actually somewhat bullish on this. I keep being told
Speaker 6: that the United States has alienated its allies and more
Speaker 6: to your point, alienated those.
Speaker 5: That we need.
Speaker 6: There are, of course vassal states of China and nations
Speaker 6: that are effectively under China's control. But I think that
Speaker 6: the what's the word.
Speaker 5: The break is superfici.
Speaker 6: We've seen and talked about on the show before, the
Speaker 6: Europeans seeming somewhat feckless, declining to join in Britain being
Speaker 6: unable to marshal and naval force within two weeks. I
Speaker 6: don't really see the balance of powers having shifted materially.
Speaker 6: I just think that there's a sort of superficial opposition
Speaker 6: to Trump, and I would liken it to the way
Speaker 6: that the world talked about America at the end of
Speaker 6: the Bush administration. People forget that now because Bush is
Speaker 6: the good Republican, right, but he wasn't in two thousand
Speaker 6: and eight, but it snapped back for reasons that were
Speaker 6: both good and bad. So I still think we're in
Speaker 6: a fairly strong position. I also think that we have
Speaker 6: demonstrated to the world with Venezuela and in Iran, notwithstanding
Speaker 6: the straight to formers, that we mean business and we
Speaker 6: are the strong horse and we should be the one
Speaker 6: that's backed. This will of course come to a head
Speaker 6: if there's an invasion of Taiwan, but I think the
Speaker 6: last two military inter inst have made that slightly less likely.
Speaker 1: I agree, And the trajectory of the change from Midnight
Speaker 1: Hammer on top of that grabbing Maduro, on top of
Speaker 1: that the devastation re wrecked on the Iranian military seventy
Speaker 1: five to eighty percent degraded. They're not powerless, but they're
Speaker 1: down to that. And then the fact that the market
Speaker 1: is kicking in Saudi Arabia has opened a new pipeline.
Speaker 1: The market always finds a way to get its products
Speaker 1: to market, and if the UAE has to build a
Speaker 1: pipeline to Haifa, they will, And if Cutter has to
Speaker 1: do a deal with Israel, they will. Meanwhile, I don't understand.
Speaker 1: I'm not an economist, but I've listened to John Cochran
Speaker 1: long enough. The moment oil hits eighty dollars a barrel
Speaker 1: capped wells, the caps come off. They start adding drilling
Speaker 1: in the North Sea, they start adding rigs in the Gulf,
Speaker 1: they start doing fracking all over the world. The answer
Speaker 1: to high prices high prices, I'm not really that worried
Speaker 1: about that, are you.
Speaker 6: I'm not worried about it in macroeconomic terms. I think
Speaker 6: politically it is a real problem. It's just a fact
Speaker 6: in this country that people like low gas prices. I
Speaker 6: like low gas prices. And the midterms are coming up,
Speaker 6: so that is a short term view, but it is
Speaker 6: a real one in our politics, and it will be
Speaker 6: very different for Donald Trump's second half of his second
Speaker 6: term if he loses the Senate. I think the House
Speaker 6: is probably gone already. Macroeconomically, no, I'm not.
Speaker 5: So worried about it.
Speaker 6: If you look at the oil prices, they're high, but
Speaker 6: they're not high as they were under Biden, for example.
Speaker 6: And the stock market is another one people point to.
Speaker 6: But the stock market is lower than its historical highs.
Speaker 6: It's down from what was a pretty extraordinary peak. So
Speaker 6: I don't think that there's going to be some sort
Speaker 6: of global recession as a result of this, but I
Speaker 6: do think it's a domestic problem for President Trump in
Speaker 6: the short term.
Speaker 1: So last question, Charles A. Cook. Mollie Hemingway's new book,
Speaker 1: Alito came in. Can't wait to read it. Maybe the
Speaker 1: best justice in terms of consistency and predictability and reasoning.
Speaker 1: He I think he's going to retire. That's just a prediction.
Speaker 1: I don't know anything, and justices make up their own mind.
Speaker 1: But would you welcome that? And would you welcome as well,
Speaker 1: the retirement of Clarence Thomas because you mentioned it, the
Speaker 1: Senate could flip. I didn't think that was possible six
Speaker 1: months ago. I do think it's possible now. If it did,
Speaker 1: there won't be one judge confirmed, not one at any level,
Speaker 1: much less of the Supreme Court justice. So would you
Speaker 1: welcome one or two retirements?
Speaker 5: I would?
Speaker 6: Unfortunately, I mean they're wonderful. Justice is the quality of
Speaker 6: the Supreme Court at the moment. In general, it's probably
Speaker 6: at its highest ever since for one hundred years. They
Speaker 6: are a big part of that both Alito and Thomas. Yeah,
Speaker 6: both Alito and Thomas are big.
Speaker 1: Parts of that.
Speaker 6: But the six' to three cult that we have is,
Speaker 6: exceptional AND i would like to keep. It it took
Speaker 6: a long long time to build and to lose, it
Speaker 6: especially for it to flip to five to four in
Speaker 6: the other, DIRECTION i think would be a real. Crime so,
Speaker 6: unfortunately While i'd love them to serve, forever YES i,
Speaker 6: WOULD i will just give my own. PREDICTION i agree with.
Speaker 6: YOU i Think alito is going to step. Down i'm
Speaker 6: not Sure thomas. Is it took him a long time
Speaker 6: to get. There he had a brutal and disgraceful confirmation.
Speaker 6: PROCESS i wouldn't be surprised if he tries to become
Speaker 6: the longest serving justice In american. History is quite close to,
Speaker 6: it so he might take a little. Longer BUT i
Speaker 6: Think alito will step down before the. MIDTERMS i do.
Speaker 1: Think That Justice thomas has found that it was rather selfless
Speaker 1: and a, servant and therefore will assess. THINGS i think
Speaker 1: he'd like to stay if he could get two more.
Speaker 1: Years let me ask you about this in terms of
Speaker 1: The court's birthright. ARGUMENT i think this is an easy
Speaker 1: cage history and tradition from during The Great. Migration we never.
Speaker 1: LOOKED i would argue it for years with the niche
Speaker 1: people who believe in a birthright citizenship is, abhorrent terrible
Speaker 1: departure from the clear meaning of the Fourteenth, amendment and
Speaker 1: they Cite florida. DEBATES i don't care About florida. Debates
Speaker 1: it's the public meaning of the original. Document what do you, Think?
Speaker 1: CHARLES i.
Speaker 6: AGREE i think that there are some really intelligent people
Speaker 6: who've done some research and prevent, yeah presented the other.
Speaker 6: Argument i'm just not on balance persuaded by. It and
Speaker 6: the other THING i think is, this you, Know i'm
Speaker 6: not a slave to. Precedent i'm With Clarence thomas on.
Speaker 6: THIS i think that if The court is obviously, wrong
Speaker 6: then it should overrule its, precedents because what matters is
Speaker 6: the true meaning of The, constitution not what The court
Speaker 6: has said in the. Past BUT i don't think this is.
Speaker 6: Clear and BECAUSE i don't think it's, CLEAR i think
Speaker 6: it would be a real shift to overturn the. Precedent
Speaker 6: SO i suspect it's going to uphold.
Speaker 1: One KIMAK i, agree and, poled, extend, refine and make
Speaker 1: clear that if you're born here on other than diplomat's,
Speaker 1: visa you get to stay. Here my tea room for
Speaker 1: statue is stricting tourism, Visas but we don't. Know CHARLES. C. W,
Speaker 1: Cook thank you station In. America my, friends you've probably
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Speaker 1: Q welcome into the second hour of The friday program
Speaker 1: of The Big Weekend. Pod my, guess as he is
Speaker 1: Most fridays when we are, lucky Is ben dominanch host
Speaker 1: of The Big Ben. Podcast he is at The Daily
Speaker 1: wire where he runs the opinion. Pages And, BEN i gotta,
Speaker 1: say this Week's Big Ben pod shocked me BECAUSE i
Speaker 1: can't imagine living within three minute walk of the bus
Speaker 1: stop Where Stephanie minter was. Murdered that's that's.
Speaker 7: Chilling, yeah it's. UH i, mean this is the thing
Speaker 7: THAT i think people don't understand about what is going
Speaker 7: on in terms of the coverage of what's happened In
Speaker 7: Northern virginia with these with these deaths that have happened
Speaker 7: at the hands of the legal immigrants who you, know
Speaker 7: have in many cases had multiple arrests for past terrible,
Speaker 7: behavior and yet the local prosecutor soros Back Steve, biscano
Speaker 7: who has survived an attempt to actually have him. Recalled
Speaker 7: he basically gives them slaps on the. Wrist and and
Speaker 7: the thing that PEOPLE i think don't quite understand is
Speaker 7: these are not happening in bad. Areas these are happening
Speaker 7: in well, off you, know suburban areas that are you,
Speaker 7: know some of the you, know highest rated in terms
Speaker 7: of per capita, income you, know in the, country you,
Speaker 7: know not just In, virginia not just in THE dc.
Speaker 7: Area and so it's one of these things WHERE i
Speaker 7: think people don't get, that like this is this is
Speaker 7: an absolute, menace and it's unfortunate that we, have you,
Speaker 7: know we had so many people who were willing to
Speaker 7: kind of pull try to pull the wool over people's
Speaker 7: eyes About Abigail spanberger and everything that she and some
Speaker 7: of These Virginia democrats, represent because they are absolutely fine
Speaker 7: with this kind of. Thing they, were you, know her
Speaker 7: response to, this with questions From Nick minok was to
Speaker 7: go turn things around and basically, say, WELL i should
Speaker 7: have dealt with, it even though she literally signed something saying,
Speaker 7: that you, know she does not Want virginia officials to
Speaker 7: in any way cooperate WITH. Ice so it's it's absolutely
Speaker 7: abhorrent And, unfortunately it's one of those situations where you
Speaker 7: kind of feel like it's going to have to get
Speaker 7: worse before there's enough of a backlash for and a
Speaker 7: lot of innocent people are going to get hurt along
Speaker 7: the way because of The.
Speaker 1: Discano and that's The Fairfax County Commonwealth Attorney Steve, Descano
Speaker 1: West Point, Grad Obama Justice department presents very. Well he
Speaker 1: has a hard left sorrows guy with seven hundred thousand,
Speaker 1: Dollars so there's a there's a trajectory for these guys
Speaker 1: Like Chase boudin And San francisco eventually got his ticket,
Speaker 1: polled And george whatever his name was In la got
Speaker 1: gascon got his ticket. Polled Larry krausner will get his
Speaker 1: ticket polled. EVENTUALLY i Think discano's toast because.
Speaker 7: The Thing virginia's aren't going to tolerate. This this is
Speaker 7: too and this is, embarrassing it's. Awful u the families
Speaker 7: question are scary willing to speak about it and and
Speaker 7: are and they're coming forward and it's a terrible. Situation
Speaker 7: and you, know again you have look In virginia and
Speaker 7: people you know who are not from the, area just
Speaker 7: to you, know. Explain one thing that happens is when
Speaker 7: you're across the river From, washington D. C even if
Speaker 7: there's crime problems In, washington D. C which by the,
Speaker 7: way have improved since the president of, course you, know,
Speaker 7: uh you know it did his push into the, city
Speaker 7: cleared out the homeless. Encampments you, know had The National
Speaker 7: guard come. In remember when you, know The atlantic and
Speaker 7: folks like that were saying that that was an impeachable.
Speaker 7: Offense that's pretty pretty amazing retrospect any. Thing the thing
Speaker 7: is that like, this people who live In virginia assume
Speaker 7: that this that the kind of safety that we have
Speaker 7: enjoyed under The young and THE rs regime over the
Speaker 7: last four years was kind of the new reality POST.
Speaker 7: Covid in, fact what we're learning is that that is
Speaker 7: not the, case and that when you reverse, course things
Speaker 7: can get really bad really.
Speaker 1: Quickly all, Right part two of The Virginia i'm going
Speaker 1: in reverse order from local to state to national and.
Speaker 1: International so at the state, level there's an, initiative and
Speaker 1: it's to Redistrict virginia from the constitutionally mandated bipartisan commission
Speaker 1: that came up with Six, democrats Five, republicans And spanburger
Speaker 1: has put forward and signed an initiative in that we'll
Speaker 1: have a ten to one D. R NOW i am
Speaker 1: Actually i'm okay with. This i've always Been redistricting is
Speaker 1: built in The american. System republicans play, ball you, know
Speaker 1: you can't sit on the ground and not play. Ball
Speaker 1: but is it going to, pass ben or are people
Speaker 1: sufficiently shocked by the fact That spanburger is a?
Speaker 7: Liar, well first, OFF i think that the shock has
Speaker 7: less to do with the fact That spanburger is a
Speaker 7: liar and more to do with the fact that the
Speaker 7: districts that were, drawn by the, way not By, spanberger
Speaker 7: but by the person who actually runs policy In, Richmond Louise,
Speaker 7: lucas the, occagenarian, uh you, know chief of The Democratic
Speaker 7: party within the legislature that because Of stanburger's by the,
Speaker 7: way moderate alternative to the ten one redistricting was a
Speaker 7: nine to two redistricting you, know which you, know by the,
Speaker 7: way this is this is one of the reasons why
Speaker 7: you shouldn't have The virginia system of not having a
Speaker 7: governor have to run for. Reelection, ever, yes here's the.
Speaker 7: Thing the districts are so. RIDICULOUS i, mean we, my
Speaker 7: my sister AND i very quickly when they when they
Speaker 7: released the, map we drew and we drew a circle
Speaker 7: around The Army navy Country club and basically tried to
Speaker 7: decide how how many representatives representing two thirds Of virginia
Speaker 7: could live within quick driving distance of The Army navy Country.
Speaker 7: Club and the, Answer, Hugh i'm to tell you is.
Speaker 1: Five, yeah it's. Amazing it will be well. Represented The
Speaker 1: Army Davy Gunchet club will be well. Represented, okay let
Speaker 1: me now move to. National on the political, side if
Speaker 1: The strait of hor moves in any way remained under
Speaker 1: the control Of, IRAN i believe it's a massive political
Speaker 1: defeat For President, trump which will follow him into the history.
Speaker 1: Books that's WHY i don't think he's going to allow to.
Speaker 1: Happen do you agree with my? ASSESSMENT i think he
Speaker 1: won big when they blinked and, Said, okay we'll sit
Speaker 1: down with you and we don't have to have all
Speaker 1: our preconditions for two Weeks eastart now they've been lying and.
Speaker 1: Backpedaling but If Donald trump allows them to collect tolls
Speaker 1: in any, way shape or form or, blinks he can't
Speaker 1: recover from.
Speaker 7: That you agree with. Me SO i do agree with,
Speaker 7: you AND i also think that and this is A
Speaker 7: i did a list On, MONDAY i believe in reaction
Speaker 7: to this sort of this deal that was being rolled
Speaker 7: out at the time that just sort of, said, look you,
Speaker 7: know one of the things that can't be accepted one
Speaker 7: is can't be In. Richmond they've, obviously you, know already
Speaker 7: played handy with that when as you pointed out On Special,
Speaker 7: report you know that where THE farsa was saying something
Speaker 7: different than what was saying In, english the idea that
Speaker 7: they would retain a toll capacity control of the. Strait
Speaker 7: that's also unacceptable any Permanent chinese representation in terms of
Speaker 7: military build up around The, strait WHICH i think is
Speaker 7: something that is still you, know a, threat not not
Speaker 7: perhaps as you, know an immediate, one but it's something
Speaker 7: THAT i think could be in the cards as things
Speaker 7: go really. Sideways AND i think that you, know just
Speaker 7: the actual you, know the ability of the of The
Speaker 7: trump administration to extract very real promises from them in
Speaker 7: terms of getting that uranium out to the degree that
Speaker 7: it's possible that those are all things that need to
Speaker 7: be part of. This and, UNFORTUNATELY i just don't think
Speaker 7: that it's trending in that, direction which is WHY i
Speaker 7: always thought this ceasefire seems to me like a temporary
Speaker 7: thing and not a permanent. Thing it. Is it is
Speaker 7: a stage toward perhaps. Resolution but you, know as much
Speaker 7: as The president would like to hold to a six week,
Speaker 7: Timeline i'm just not sure that's going to. Happen AND
Speaker 7: i think that he knows a bad deal is not
Speaker 7: something that he wants to live with long, term and
Speaker 7: SO i have confidence in him on that front that
Speaker 7: he's not going to be willing to accept, that and.
Speaker 1: So DO i BECAUSE i think he knows the stakes here.
Speaker 1: NOW i don't Think Vice President vance is going because
Speaker 1: he's a particularly skilled negotiated with The. IRANIANS i think
Speaker 1: that's the Witkop kushner. Role he's going because of what
Speaker 1: The romans used to call the. Dignitas he's the second
Speaker 1: highest official in The United states who's elected by the.
Speaker 1: People he just comes, In BUT i want him to
Speaker 1: open With Michael corleone From Godfather, too this is my, offer,
Speaker 1: nothing and then.
Speaker 7: Just walk, out not even the check for the.
Speaker 1: License you, know you're the second person today who knew
Speaker 1: the follow up line.
Speaker 7: Who this. Is this IS i completely. Agree and here's
Speaker 7: by the, way this is an. OPPORTUNITY i Think Jadie
Speaker 7: vance has had different people criticize him for, saying you,
Speaker 7: know oh well he isn't really supportive of, this or
Speaker 7: he's and, FRANKLY i think a lot of it is
Speaker 7: blind then and the elephant they're they're you, know they're
Speaker 7: interpreting different tea leaves over interpreting. THINGS i. Don't ACTUALLY
Speaker 7: i think THAT i think that his views are far more,
Speaker 7: uh they're far more, SOPHISTICATED i would, say than typical vice,
Speaker 7: presidents AND i don't AND i think that they have
Speaker 7: nuanced to them that people maybe don't. Respect so but
Speaker 7: stepping back from, THAT i think this is an opportunity
Speaker 7: for him to be extremely presidential in this moment and
Speaker 7: basically go in there and, say we know that you
Speaker 7: are going to lie to. Us we know that we
Speaker 7: can't take your word at face. Value we have experienced
Speaker 7: the downsides of trying of having your word taken at
Speaker 7: face value under prior, administrations and that's why we are
Speaker 7: at this point. Today And i'm not willing to accept,
Speaker 7: that And i'm not going to take it back to.
Speaker 1: The president well to be, ghosts to show pictures of
Speaker 1: the houses of the new five. Guys we know where you.
Speaker 1: Live we know, well we do know where they. LIVE
Speaker 1: i really.
Speaker 7: Don't Think GODFATHER c is really. GOOD i need to go.
Speaker 1: Back i'm going to come back With ben during the.
Speaker 1: Break we got a lot more to talk. About don't
Speaker 1: go Anywhere america except over to The Big ben podcast
Speaker 1: or The Daily, wire Where ben is in charge of
Speaker 1: the opinion. Section stay. Tuned i'm back With Ben. Dominic.
Speaker 1: BEN i think it's completely absurd the conniptions that we
Speaker 1: saw from legacy media when The president posted his end
Speaker 1: of civilization posts that began with that but ended by
Speaker 1: making it very clear he was talking about the regime
Speaker 1: that's been in power for forty seven, years and he,
Speaker 1: Said god bless The iranian. PEOPLE i was having lunch
Speaker 1: that day with a Retired State Supreme court. Justice he,
Speaker 1: said basic rule a. LIE i read the whole, document
Speaker 1: and then you can at the. Document but We i've
Speaker 1: heard so many people comment about. THAT i don't even
Speaker 1: think they read the second.
Speaker 7: Line, WELL i don't think. THEY i don't think they needed.
Speaker 7: TO i think that they just jump to the same
Speaker 7: conclusion that they always. DO i mean that the people
Speaker 7: who were talking about it is that's staying on the.
Speaker 7: PRESIDENCY i mean it's like you, KNOW i mean they
Speaker 7: say that about. Anything you, know he can make a
Speaker 7: comment offhandedly at The easter egg role that they could
Speaker 7: use that. Way is this is a situation That i'm
Speaker 7: completely tired. Of it makes no sense whatsoever. Anymore we
Speaker 7: know the way that The president of The United states.
Speaker 7: TALKS i like it personally BECAUSE i like coaches who
Speaker 7: are psychopaths and who you, know, say you, know they're
Speaker 7: going to destroy the other. Team they're going to wipe
Speaker 7: them off the phase of the. Earth they're going to
Speaker 7: destroy them on the. Field and, look you, KNOW i
Speaker 7: think that that's the way The president has always. Talked
Speaker 7: he does so because he wants to deliver the. MESSAGE
Speaker 7: i am willing to do some crazy stuff in order
Speaker 7: to achieve the end THAT i, believe, sir the interest
Speaker 7: of The United states Of. America and guess, What iran hurt.
Speaker 7: HIM i, mean they did not want to come to the.
Speaker 7: Table they were not going coming to the. Table they
Speaker 7: two weeks ago they were, saying we aren't even talking to.
Speaker 7: Him what is he talking? About we're not, negotiating we're
Speaker 7: not doing, anything and then it's, like, okay well actually
Speaker 7: here's some, things and so that to, me it's, like,
Speaker 7: look that's the way that you achieved that. End if
Speaker 7: you haven't learned that about this president by, NOW i
Speaker 7: just don't know why you're in the business of political.
Speaker 7: Analysis it's still. Stupid.
Speaker 1: Ben he's broken so many. People AND i don't mean that.
Speaker 1: LIGHTLY i mean he's really broken some. People they can't
Speaker 1: think straight when he's connected to a. Topic AND i
Speaker 1: think that's going to.
Speaker 7: ENDURE i think it. Is and you, know you AND,
Speaker 7: I you AND i have been around long enough that
Speaker 7: we know enough of the people who are, advocating literally
Speaker 7: at the beginning of The Iraq war that we should
Speaker 7: be doing things that went After iran, instead who are
Speaker 7: now you, know just completely on the opp this. Side,
Speaker 7: yeah and are basically TAKING i, mean in some cases
Speaker 7: even you, know going After israel in ways THAT i
Speaker 7: never thought people would. That that is JUST i just
Speaker 7: if you're reaching that, point come, on look in the,
Speaker 7: mirror you, know try to try to take yourself more
Speaker 7: seriously than. That have some self.
Speaker 1: Respect i'll be right back With Ben. Dominic don't go
Speaker 1: anywhere on The Big Weekend. Pod Welcome Back. America I'm
Speaker 1: Hugh Hewett Ben. Dominic, FIRST i just want to test the.
Speaker 1: Market The olympics ticket lottery is underway and everyone in
Speaker 1: my family wants to. Go we've never been swimming is
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars a? Ticket would you pay for?
Speaker 7: THAT i. WOULD i went with my family to the
Speaker 7: nineteen ninety Six olympics in Uh Or, sorry wait a,
Speaker 7: minute which one was.
Speaker 1: The one in the Land atlanta is ninety?
Speaker 7: Six, yeah, six and had a great. Time we did,
Speaker 7: swimming and we did table, tennis which was actually very,
Speaker 7: exciting and we got a random map with the second
Speaker 7: go round of The Dream team absolutely Destroying. Brazil that
Speaker 7: was something that was very enjoyable for me to watch
Speaker 7: as AS i guess as a thirteen year, old so
Speaker 7: it WAS i highly recommend it to. People even if
Speaker 7: you can get just some of these random events that
Speaker 7: are out, there you don't necessarily need to see the.
Speaker 7: Stars if you, can, great maybe pick one or, two
Speaker 7: but don't you, know it's still worth going just to,
Speaker 7: see so you just rack up some wins against.
Speaker 1: Them now we go to politics cut number. Two Kamala
Speaker 1: harris talking With Al sharpton at The National Action Network
Speaker 1: Conference cut number. Two so are you going to run
Speaker 1: again in twenty?
Speaker 5: Eight so, okay, okay you KNOW i.
Speaker 1: Tried to be, subtle BUT i just figured i'd go RIGHT.
Speaker 5: O that's is subtle at reve now, sharp it could never.
Speaker 5: Be we love you for many, things but not being. Subtle,
Speaker 5: LISTEN i, MIGHT i might be.
Speaker 1: There we got everything in The kamla, package the, laugh
Speaker 1: the indirect, answer the attempt to be, funny and an indecisive.
Speaker 1: CONCLUSION i hope she, Runs she'll get.
Speaker 7: CRUSHED i completely, agree AND i WILL i will, say you,
Speaker 7: know just you, know if, you if you perhaps are
Speaker 7: are looking at you, know the way that things are
Speaker 7: hashing out on the democratic. SIDE i do think it
Speaker 7: is telling that, people particularly in the prediction, markets are
Speaker 7: getting higher and higher on AOC's, chances AND i think
Speaker 7: that that's something that people should pay attention to as
Speaker 7: a very real. Threat, now don't don't think that Because
Speaker 7: i'm saying THAT i have some newfound respects FOR aoc
Speaker 7: as as an, Intellectual but it's more because of the
Speaker 7: way things are playing out within that party right. Now
Speaker 7: if you have a tired retread which is What Kamala harris.
Speaker 7: Is if you have a far too slick and hampered
Speaker 7: by lots of baggage white guy In Gavin newsom THAT i,
Speaker 7: think you, know looks good to a lot of people
Speaker 7: who are billionaire, donors but maybe looks less good to the.
Speaker 7: Country there's the potential for a real, populist leftist uprising
Speaker 7: that just you, know thrives on the same motivations that
Speaker 7: Elevated mamdani and the like IN aoc THAT i think
Speaker 7: people should not. Underestimate there's a desire for generational change
Speaker 7: on The democratic side that has been held down for
Speaker 7: far too, long AND i think you could see it
Speaker 7: explode in this.
Speaker 1: Primery so NOW i want to talk about The democrats,
Speaker 1: generally because their reaction To iran has been deeply. Disappointing
Speaker 1: since the one consensus In america for twenty five years
Speaker 1: Of iron can't have a nuclear, weapon a president finally
Speaker 1: acted on, it and The democrats ran for the. Hills
Speaker 1: that's because they are in the thrall of their hard
Speaker 1: left PROGRESSIVE i think they're headed for their version of
Speaker 1: The republican nineteen sixty four. Election that is where they
Speaker 1: just turned the party over to the hardest of the
Speaker 1: hardcore and sit back and get. Shellac that's WHAT i
Speaker 1: think is. Happening what do you? Think?
Speaker 7: SO i think the big question there is how powerful
Speaker 7: The democratic established establishment still. Is and if you, believe
Speaker 7: AS i, believe That kanella was essentially their last gaft
Speaker 7: that putting her forward with something the establishment, did you
Speaker 7: know in preventing any kind of actual competitive, primary that
Speaker 7: it could have played out in any way that that
Speaker 7: is a situation where the establishment finally steps. Back democrat
Speaker 7: establishment figures have held the reins on that party for so.
Speaker 7: Long we've seen it play out so many. Times remember
Speaker 7: the way that it did After South carolina in, particular
Speaker 7: in order to clear the lane For Joe. Biden, look
Speaker 7: this is is a moment WHERE i think that finally
Speaker 7: could be fading. Away and if that is the, case
Speaker 7: you could definitely see something like that play out and
Speaker 7: actually have the nomination of someone so radical that the
Speaker 7: country rejects them to such a degree that you're not
Speaker 7: looking at the kind of match that we've seen.
Speaker 1: BEFORE i want to finish by talking about the absolute
Speaker 1: and ability Of democrats to figure out a message that
Speaker 1: resonates beyond the left wing of their. Party are there
Speaker 1: any moderates left at all in The Democratic?
Speaker 7: Party that's a really good, Question. Hugh and my answer
Speaker 7: to that is. No and the reason THAT i answer
Speaker 7: it that way is because if you look at the
Speaker 7: actual polling data that we, have that is it's now
Speaker 7: by numerous polls or some of them have AN x
Speaker 7: to grind within, it but a lot of them do.
Speaker 7: Not that says where the Different democratic voters find themselves.
Speaker 7: Aligned if they propose to them the different things that
Speaker 7: have been put forward By Bernie, sanders BY, aoc by
Speaker 7: other members of their associated wing of the, party they
Speaker 7: are a majority Of democrats say that they favor. It
Speaker 7: the most recent polls showed about fifty three percent versus
Speaker 7: around thirty percent or so for The Hakeem jeffries part
Speaker 7: of the, party which is also not moderate by the,
Speaker 7: way it is not in any way a shape or form.
Speaker 7: Moderate and so to the degree that there are any
Speaker 7: moderates that, exists there are local level people and, alike
Speaker 7: and really they're few and far. Between you're more likely
Speaker 7: to find, them as you, know mayors of cities in
Speaker 7: red states than just about anything.
Speaker 1: Else so in the old days there was always A Scoop,
Speaker 1: jackson there was always A Sam, nunn there Were series
Speaker 1: Wend for a, While Mark warner was that our senator
Speaker 1: here In. Virginia he's still On Senate. Intel i've enjoyed
Speaker 1: lunch with them a couple of. Times you have a
Speaker 1: very smart. Guy but is there Any democrat who's actually
Speaker 1: serious About iran And? CHINA i, mean really serious about
Speaker 1: thinking about.
Speaker 7: This, NO i certainly have. NOT i certainly have not
Speaker 7: heard any of, that AND i don't think that we
Speaker 7: are going. TO i think that's the problem is you,
Speaker 7: said is that they're so beholden to the far wing
Speaker 7: of their party that they just can't afford to take
Speaker 7: any position that is in any way seen or viewed as,
Speaker 7: being you, know in favor of a position held by the.
Speaker 7: President you, know even on the basic level of saying
Speaker 7: we should be able to compete and win Against, china
Speaker 7: which is something that you Know democrats are going. BACK i,
Speaker 7: mean this is something That democrats said, forever you, know
Speaker 7: in terms of their. Attitudes it was just a difference
Speaker 7: of opinion about what that represented and how that should be.
Speaker 7: ACHIEVED i just don't think you hear that. Anymore AND
Speaker 7: i think that when it comes to their pivot on
Speaker 7: The iran. Situation you, know this was the whole justification
Speaker 7: for The iran deal in the first, place you, know
Speaker 7: the justification offered by all of these different people who supported,
Speaker 7: that you, know podbro answer to the, Problem, Pod, yes
Speaker 7: we have to we have to we have to do
Speaker 7: this in order to give. Them we have to give
Speaker 7: them this, big you, know sack of money in order
Speaker 7: to make them not do this thing that is so
Speaker 7: abhorrent that it's a nex essential. Threat now they're acting, like,
Speaker 7: well that's just you, know anybody who says that they're
Speaker 7: that kind of threat anymore is just you, know aligning you,
Speaker 7: know a magat person or the, like which is just.
Speaker 7: Absurd and so THEN i.
Speaker 1: Got thirty seconds. LEFT i Think biden will be ranked
Speaker 1: lower Than. Obama BUT i don't know That obama has
Speaker 1: anything to put in his. Library what does he put
Speaker 1: in his?
Speaker 7: Library, well what what he probably puts in his library,
Speaker 7: is uh is is a lot of a lot of,
Speaker 7: hope a lot of hopium maybe, hope a lot of campaign,
Speaker 7: here a lot of, things a lot of you, know
Speaker 7: shepherd fairy paintings and the, like things that all came
Speaker 7: before he actually got.
Speaker 1: Elected, yeah and there's there's just everything with Nothing. Obama
Speaker 1: there is a. Disaster THE jcpoa is a. Disaster that's
Speaker 1: going to be the hardest president to library to get
Speaker 1: exhibits For Ben, dominich fall him on, exit be. Dominant
Speaker 1: what