1 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, and good night. Great 2 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: to have your company here in the Aaron Mullin Show. 3 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 1: We have two huge guests coming up for you, General 4 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 1: David Petraeus, former head of Central Command and of course 5 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: former head of the CIA, Plus Dahlia Ziada, the Egyptian activist. 6 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 2: She was part of the Arab springs. 7 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,959 Speaker 1: She saw what happened firsthand when there's a vacuum in leadership, 8 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: people fight up, get rid of evil. 9 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 2: And then more evil comes in. 10 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: So General David Petraeus knows all too well what happens 11 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: when it goes wrong in the Middle East. He's learned 12 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: every lesson possible. How does it apply to. 13 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 2: The here and the now? Well, I asked. 14 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: Him, General Petraeus, thank you so very much for johinning 15 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: us here on the Aaron Mullin Show. 16 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 2: Really appreciate your company. 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 3: Good to be with you again. 18 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: Early days. 19 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: Have they learned the lessons and the lessons from the 20 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: last war in the Middle Ace that the US was 21 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: involved in over a long period of time. 22 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: What is your early take on that question? 23 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 3: Well, it's hard to say. I think that the lesson 24 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 3: of the challenges of putting boots on the ground certainly 25 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,199 Speaker 3: has been learned, but there obviously is a question about 26 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 3: whether you can bring about regime change from the air 27 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,199 Speaker 3: or not unless there are other activities going on behind 28 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 3: the scenes that we're not aware of. At this point, 29 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 3: I would point out that I think there are many, 30 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 3: many other objectives that are very important here. One of 31 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 3: these was the reconstitution of the Iranian missile force, a 32 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 3: particular concern to Israel and frankly to other countries in 33 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 3: the region. In fact, a number of US had assessed 34 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 3: that Israel was going to attack within a month or 35 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 3: two from now, had this not already taken place because 36 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 3: of those concerns. There's some concern that there may have 37 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,239 Speaker 3: been some activity resumed at the nuclear sites, really more 38 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 3: clean up and so forth. And then there was an 39 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 3: announcement by the International Atomic Energy Agency that there might 40 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:20,519 Speaker 3: be some stockpile of sixty percent uranium underneath the Esfahan 41 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 3: site in some kind of tunnels there, so that's a 42 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 3: concern as well. And then the objectives of taking out 43 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 3: the regime leadership. Obviously that was conducted, that's a historic achievement, 44 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 3: many others beyond that, and then this substantial damage to 45 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 3: the Navy to the other regime force leadership, headquarters, stockpiles, bases, 46 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 3: and forces in general. All of that is ongoing, and 47 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 3: I think all of that is really quite important. The question, though, 48 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 3: is whether having set the conditions for the Iranian people 49 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 3: to rise up, as President Trump has described it, Now 50 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 3: there's been a bit of a clarification to what it 51 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 3: is that our military forces are seeking to do, noting 52 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 3: that they can't bring about a regime change themselves, given 53 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 3: that it's an air campaign. Having done that, will there 54 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 3: be a force that emerges with a charismatic leader hopefully 55 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 3: and real military hertage capability to take on a very 56 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 3: substantial regime, even as battered and degraded as it will 57 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 3: be when ultimately this campaign is concluded. Keep in mind 58 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 3: that they're nearly a million or so members of the 59 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 3: overall security forces, and I actually listed them the other day. 60 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 3: The Revolutionary Guards Corps, of course, that's the regime survival force. 61 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 3: It's over one hundred and fifty thousand. The besieged militia, 62 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 3: the pipe swingers who are willing to shoot at the 63 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 3: crowds as well. They are armed. They're over two hundred thousand. 64 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 3: The Artees that's the regular Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine, 65 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 3: they're over four hundred thousand, the National Police or some 66 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty thousand, and even the Ministry of 67 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 3: Intelligence has some tens of thousands of elements. And again, 68 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 3: when you add it all up, you can flood the 69 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 3: country in the streets with nearly a million men under 70 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 3: arms who have shown a willingness to be extraordinarily brutal. 71 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 3: So what can emerge maybe splinter off from this. Break 72 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 3: off from this galvanize the support by the population, maybe 73 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 3: even some elements inside the country that have long been 74 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 3: wanting to stand up against this brutal regime. There are Curds, 75 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 3: there are a Zeri's, there are Turkmen, there's even the 76 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 3: Macha Dino Kalki. Remember that we're on a rocky soil 77 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 3: when we liberated Iraq and have already selected a secular 78 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 3: parliament and so forth. But who of these can have 79 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 3: that kind of real capacity, even given how ruinous the 80 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 3: regime has been in running the country and managing its affairs. 81 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 3: And economists the other day calculated that the Iranian real 82 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 3: the currency is down by ninety nine percent since the 83 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:18,039 Speaker 3: revolution of nineteen seventy nine. This is a country that 84 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,799 Speaker 3: has the number two natural gas reserves in the world, 85 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 3: the number three crude oil reserves in the world, and 86 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 3: educated population all the rest of this, all the ingredients 87 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 3: are there for Iran to be a true energy superpower 88 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,159 Speaker 3: and an economic force to be reckoned with. And instead 89 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 3: what they've done has tried to build a nuclear program. 90 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 3: They have armed proxies in the region who have killed 91 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 3: thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Arabs, and it brought this 92 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 3: onto the country. I mean, could there be a pragmatist 93 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 3: somewhere who rises up and persuades the people that the 94 00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: way to go again truly is to oppose the regime 95 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 3: with as much force as they can muster and see 96 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 3: if that could be successful. But again, that's a big if. 97 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 3: It's a big question. In fact, someone just in a 98 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 3: previous program asked what my lessons about soft power are 99 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 3: in the situation yes, and my response was that soft 100 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 3: power is what solidifies the gains that you achieve by 101 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 3: hard power. You establish security, get rid of all the 102 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 3: bad guys, and then you solidify those gains by showing 103 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,239 Speaker 3: the people that life can be better if they support 104 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 3: you as opposed to supporting those who oppose you. Can 105 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 3: there be that dynamic here and that question is just 106 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 3: not answerable right now. 107 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:47,159 Speaker 1: It's really interesting when we've spoken in previous interviews about 108 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 1: war in the Middle East and looking particularly at Israel 109 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: and Gaza, and how different a situation it is for 110 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: an army when you're going in and the people in 111 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: there have been raised from birth to. 112 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:58,919 Speaker 2: Despise you, to want to kill you. 113 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: This is a different situation in that they say eighty 114 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: ninety percent of the people in Iran don't support this regime. 115 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: But does that matter when they don't have guns and 116 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: weapons or capacity at the moment to fight back. 117 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 3: That's exactly the question. And again, normally in this situation, 118 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 3: the most guys that the most guns and the most 119 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 3: willingness to be brutal, as we have seen from the 120 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 3: regime forces, as they've gunned down tens of thousands of 121 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 3: demonstrators and prison tens of thousands more and so forth 122 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 3: over a number of years. How can you stand up 123 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 3: against them? The answer is you've got to have a 124 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 3: lot of guys with guns and a willingness to be 125 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 3: tough as well. And again that is not clear if 126 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 3: that will emerge in this case, despite all of those 127 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 3: that would like to overthrow or at least see the 128 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 3: regime in the rear view mirror, how do. 129 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 1: You see it playing out? And again, a very difficult question, 130 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 1: an impossible one to answer. But Trump is saying, I think, 131 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: just a few moments ago in his own special way, 132 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: you know we've basically blown up everything, or we're very 133 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: close to that. But does everything include every objective? And 134 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: the extension to that? I asked the Israeli foreign minister yesterday, 135 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 1: are your objectives completely. 136 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 2: Aligned with those of the US. 137 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 1: Is there a scenario in which the US achieves its 138 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 1: objectives walks away, Yet Israel continues because they haven't achieved theirs, 139 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: and we see that with Hesbeler at this stage as well, 140 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: they've opened a new offensive front. 141 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:34,680 Speaker 3: I tend to think that there will be a coordinated 142 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 3: cessation of hostilities at a moment where both the Israelis 143 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 3: and the Americans can say, look, we destroyed any remnants 144 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 3: whatsoever that we're left over from the strikes and the 145 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 3: nuclear program. We have destroyed their navy and reduced therefore 146 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 3: the ability of them to impede maritime freedom of navigation, 147 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 3: which right now they are, although some of that is 148 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 3: also voluntary by companies that are just saying they're not 149 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 3: going to sail through the trader her moves of the 150 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 3: Babel Mandevs Marisk announced earlier, and of course that's what's 151 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 3: resulting in the spike in the price of Brent crude 152 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 3: and also of natural gas. When we have done enough damage, 153 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 3: a real destruction to not just the existing missile stocks 154 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 3: and launchers, but to the manufacturing facilities, to the drone 155 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 3: the same and the drone capabilities. Noting that that has 156 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 3: been particularly challenging. Here We've got all these exquisite interceptors 157 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 3: for the missiles, some of which costs two million dollars 158 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 3: per interceptor, but you don't want to use those against 159 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,959 Speaker 3: the twenty thousand dollars shah Head drone that Iran sends 160 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 3: your way. Some countries have done very impressively. The UAE 161 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 3: invested for years in the procurement and training of short 162 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 3: range air defense systems, both the early warning, the radar 163 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 3: of the tracking, and then the various systems to take 164 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,839 Speaker 3: them down in a cost effective way, and you're seeing 165 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 3: the results of that investment. But even then, a handful 166 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 3: of drones do get through, and they have unwisely, I 167 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 3: think Iran widened this. They conducted horizontal relation, as the 168 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 3: term is. They got his Bulla to enter the war 169 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 3: against Israel. That has brought enormous response retaliation by Israel 170 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 3: and the rest of the Lebanese I'm sure are absolutely 171 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 3: angry with them. Has Bulla sent a drone towards Cyprus. 172 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,559 Speaker 3: That's bringing the UK into this in a much more 173 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:40,080 Speaker 3: substantial way. In Iran of course has attacked airports, seaports, 174 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 3: oil and gas loading locations, even a French base, I think, 175 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 3: in addition to our bases and diplomatic facilities and so forth. 176 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:50,959 Speaker 3: And I think that was very unwise because the Gulf 177 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 3: States were hoping to set this out. They did not 178 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 3: even allow American forces to use the normal basis from 179 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 3: which we operate. That backfired when Iran made a very 180 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 3: unwise decision, and they are now being brought into this 181 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 3: as well. By the way. It makes it much tougher 182 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 3: for China. Also because although China has made some overtures 183 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 3: to Iran as well as of course Russia and North Korea, 184 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 3: they get the bulk of their oil and gas from 185 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 3: folks on the other side. Of the Gulf, who have 186 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 3: now been attacked by their somewhat friend Iran. Also the 187 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 3: efforts against the regime leadership, even against the proxy networks 188 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 3: again his Bullah, the Huthis who have made trouble in 189 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 3: the Bab al Mandeb leading to the Suez Canal and 190 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 3: so forth. I think there's a moment when our objectives 191 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 3: relative to all of them, will have been achieved, and 192 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 3: then the question is what's the prospect for some kind 193 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,559 Speaker 3: of emergence of an opposition force in Iran that can 194 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 3: capitalize on the opportunities that our forces will have provided 195 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 3: for them. You're the daughter of a former Chief of 196 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 3: Operations and the Multinational Force Iraq, and I was pubished 197 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 3: to work with your father when he was in that capacity. 198 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 3: You know that a mission statement to the military includes 199 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 3: a task and a purpose. I don't think that the 200 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 3: military has been given a task in purpose which is 201 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 3: overthrow the regime. Rather, I think the purpose has been 202 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 3: to degrade the regime forces, leadership, and capabilities and assets 203 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 3: sufficiently that it conditions that could allow of the regime. 204 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 1: What do you think is the biggest mistake that the 205 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 1: Americans and Israelis can make right now? 206 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 3: I'm not sure. I see a huge mistake. I guess 207 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 3: it would be more in rhetoric, and that would be 208 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 3: to seem to assume that the regime might collapse of 209 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 3: its own incompetence and bad decisions and degradation. I'm not 210 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 3: sure I see that coming. I think unfortunately. Right now, still, 211 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 3: the base case, regrettably is that the regime will be 212 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 3: enormously degraded. Its leadership will have been decimated, its manufacturing 213 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 3: of weapons systems, and all of its different arms will 214 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 3: have been dramatically damaged, destroyed in some cases, but not 215 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 3: clear that that results in the actual collapse. There will 216 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 3: be some figure who is selected by the Assembly of 217 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 3: experts when they reconvene the meeting they were hit today 218 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 3: as they started to have their conclave. If you will 219 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 3: to select the next supreme lead, then the question is 220 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 3: will that supreme leader be someone who is as hardline 221 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 3: and ideological as his two predecessors? And of course President 222 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 3: Trump said, you know what's the worst case, and his 223 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 3: answer was someone some years from now we recognize as 224 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 3: as bad as the others, and something has to be 225 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 3: done again for some reason. 226 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 1: I understand, and you would better than anyone the paranoia 227 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: from the US when it comes to regime change, but 228 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: do you And they won't say it out loud, and 229 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: I understand why, and maybe it's because they genuinely don't 230 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: desire that, but a lot of the commentary surrounding it 231 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 1: shows that they do, and they'd be silly not to. 232 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 2: Should they be doing more? 233 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: What about a Resipo Lavi who the people seem to 234 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 1: have rallied around or is that just a fanciful idea 235 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: because how does it practically work? 236 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 3: Well? They have an indeed been chanting his name, But 237 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 3: the question is are they chanting his name because they 238 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 3: very much want him to take over or is it 239 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 3: because he is anything but the regime. He is symbolically 240 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 3: opposing the regime and therefore chanting his name symbolically has 241 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 3: enormous appeal. I actually met with him at the Munich 242 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 3: Security Conference. He has actually published quite a general view 243 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 3: of how a transition could go. He would be willing 244 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 3: to be an interim leader before eventually there is a 245 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 3: democratically elected new leadership. Is he the Ahmed shahma Sud 246 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 3: of Iran? You know? If so, where is the Ponchier 247 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 3: Valley to ark him back to Afghanistan. Shahma Sud, of course, 248 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 3: the hero of the Northern Alliance, which eventually we enabled 249 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 3: to topple the Taliban regime with our air power in 250 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 3: their boots on the ground. I don't see that yet, 251 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 3: you know. Is he right now in Azerbaijan or Turkey 252 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 3: or somewhere near the fight, maybe Iraqi, Kurdistan, perhaps assembling 253 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 3: some forces that would be willing to enter the country 254 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 3: and begin the process of overthrowing the regime and seeing 255 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 3: if the people rally to that leadership. Again, I'm not 256 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 3: aware of that. It would be great to see him 257 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 3: or someone like that emerge who really could galvanize, But 258 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 3: it has to galvanize members of the existing forces, not 259 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 3: all of which are resimed support. The Army, Navy, air Force, 260 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 3: and Marines are a little bit less focused on that. 261 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 3: The Revolutionary Guard's Guard Corps, on the other hand, is 262 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 3: very much in existence to preserve the regime. And I 263 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 3: gave you the numbers earlier that they represent in the 264 00:16:56,400 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 3: besieged militia and the others. So again, where is that individual? 265 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,479 Speaker 3: Is this possible? And the answer right now is we 266 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 3: really just don't know, but I think we do know 267 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 3: in general that it is unlikely to bring about regime 268 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 3: change through the air. In fact, you have Gallant, the 269 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 3: former Israeli Minister of Defense, for whom I have such 270 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 3: high regard and a personal friendship. Noted that earlier as well. 271 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: Final question general, Also as head of the CIA, you're 272 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 1: experienced in so many different fields looking at potential domestic 273 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,919 Speaker 1: terror incidents, sleeper cells, we've already seen moments everyone's on 274 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: hire alert. 275 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: What can people do when it. 276 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: Is just individuals who are radicalized by what they're seeing. 277 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: What advice would you give to people, particularly in America 278 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: where their most vulnerable right now? How can people try 279 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 1: and keep safe when this is a real threat. 280 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 3: Well, I think have to be very very vigilant. They 281 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 3: should be very alert to anything that doesn't seem right, 282 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 3: as someone who is not fitting in in a way, 283 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 3: or seems to be preoccupied in some fashion, or what 284 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 3: have you. But that's always the case. I guess it 285 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 3: should just be a bit more heightened now we've had 286 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 3: our Diplotment of Homeland Security has in all administrations has 287 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 3: often advocated for that kind of vigilance, if you will, 288 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 3: among the people immediately to call in something that seems 289 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 3: again not right, and there should be concern about this, 290 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 3: but I can't imagine that there is any particularly significant 291 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 3: capability like that, though we have seen from time to 292 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 3: time attacked by elements of the Revolutionary Guards cuts force, 293 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 3: their external in a sense, their combination of CIA and 294 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 3: Special Operations forces in Eastern Europe and Latin America, attempts 295 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 3: in the United States. When I was a CI director, 296 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 3: I remember there was a of the Kutz force in 297 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 3: Mexico City who hired what he thought was a hitman 298 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:11,440 Speaker 3: to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, d C. In 299 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 3: the Cafe Milano, the CNBC in place in the district, 300 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 3: and thankfully he hired a DEA source, a drug enforcement 301 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:26,199 Speaker 3: agency source, who immediately contacted US and we managed to 302 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,400 Speaker 3: have the plane that was supposed to fly him home 303 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 3: to Tehran from Mexico City make an interim landing at 304 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 3: Kennedy International Airport outside New York, where the FBI was 305 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 3: waiting for him at the bottom of the ramp. So again, 306 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,679 Speaker 3: competence has not always been a hallmark of them, but 307 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 3: they have indeed carried out brutal attacks and should have 308 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 3: added Bangkok into that as well. In a number of 309 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 3: places overseas over the years, and so there should absolutely 310 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 3: be an awareness that this is a possibility. We should 311 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 3: be cautish, we should beyond guard, we should be vigilant. 312 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 1: And to a lesser extent, a couple of incidents, violent 313 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 1: incidents synagogue bombings in Australia for which the ambassador of 314 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 1: the Islamic Strait was kicked out for as well. So, 315 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: Hilo Gerald, thank you so much for your time. I 316 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 1: know how busy you are at the moment. We really 317 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: appreciate your expertise and your brilliance. 318 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 3: Thank you, pleasure to be with you. 319 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: Erin Dalia's YadA had to flee Egypt because after October seven, 320 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 1: she said, Israel has the right to defend itself. She 321 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: is courageous. She was also part of the Arab Springs, 322 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:42,360 Speaker 1: the uprising of young people, but instead of a good, solid, strong, innocent, 323 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 1: decent government going in, islamus took over. She watched it happen. 324 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,359 Speaker 1: How does Iran stop history from repeating itself? 325 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 2: I asked her. 326 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 1: We'll get into all of that, but first, here's a 327 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 1: word from our partner. Now, if you were like me 328 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: and you're tired of random stuff, getting thrown into your 329 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 1: supplements like artificial colors and sugars. You probably would like 330 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: to know more about phyto nutrition. Yes, I had to 331 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 1: google too. Let me save you by telling you phyto 332 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 1: nutrients are the naturally occurring plant nutrients found in whole 333 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: foods that give them their color, their taste, and their smell. 334 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 1: And the presence of these three things is a short 335 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 1: fire sign you're getting real phyto nutrients now. Balance of 336 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 1: Nature's Whole Health Systems Supplements are a value bundle that 337 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: includes their fruits and veggies, fiber and spice supplements, which 338 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 1: gives you forty seven ingredients of fruits, vegetables, spices and 339 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: fibers and all of the naturally occurring phyton nutrients that 340 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 1: come with them. 341 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,439 Speaker 2: Every single day Dick Balance of. 342 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:43,199 Speaker 1: Nature takes produce through a specialized vacuum cold process and 343 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:44,880 Speaker 1: it stabilizes the ingredients. 344 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 4: Now. 345 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: They're then powdered and packaged with no binders, fillers or 346 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: flow agents. So whether you've been on the fence for 347 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: a long time or it's the first time you're hearing 348 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: about them, I recommend that you go to Balance of 349 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,199 Speaker 1: Nature dot com and order the Whole Health System supplements 350 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 1: as a preferred customer today the Balance of Nature dot com. 351 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 1: Dali Asiada. It is so great to have you back on. 352 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Aaron Mullan Show. What is going through 353 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 1: your mind over the past say seventy two hours? 354 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 2: Tell me all your feelings. 355 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 4: Thank you so much, Irene. Always a pleasure to be 356 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 4: with you. So there is a lot of feelings out there. 357 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 4: And I would first speak as an Arab and looking 358 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 4: at also my fellow Arabs, especially in the Arab Golf 359 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 4: country countries, there are going through waves of relief at 360 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 4: the very first hours that finally this Sonni Shia dynamic 361 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 4: is coming to an end with the fall of the 362 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 4: Iranian regime, which is a big deal, a big relief 363 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 4: to the entire region. 364 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 2: Then as Iran. 365 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 4: Started to move the center of the conflict from Tehran 366 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 4: to the out of Golf states in order to create 367 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 4: some kind of pressure on the United States and also 368 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 4: to widen the conflict to make it more like a 369 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:13,719 Speaker 4: regional and then a global conflict, in hope that this 370 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 4: will accelerate the US operation or the US Israelid operation. 371 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 4: Rather than taking weeks, it may take days. So with 372 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 4: this in mind, unfortunately the feeling shifted in the Arab 373 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 4: on the Arab side from relief and very much excitement 374 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 4: and happiness to disbelief and fear. 375 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 2: And the fear here. 376 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 4: Is not only coming from a sense of uncertainty of 377 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 4: what might come next, but it's coming from the fact 378 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 4: that for the first time Orab golf countries are under 379 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 4: direct attack. 380 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 2: This never happened before. 381 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 4: This is a first, and we saw that the Arabian 382 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 4: Peninsula geographically speaking, and our Gulf states has been kind 383 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 4: of immune to all the politically changes and military turmoils 384 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 4: and security turmoils that happened in the past four decades 385 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,959 Speaker 4: or five decades or so. They have been always unshaken 386 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 4: by these events. Now they are not only shaken by 387 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,360 Speaker 4: other events happening around them in the region, but they 388 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 4: are the main target, the main target of a very 389 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 4: strong military power like Iran. So this is forcing the 390 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,439 Speaker 4: re alignment that we have been seeing in the region 391 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 4: to accelerate, actually in a good way, I believe. It's 392 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 4: I know, it's very the perspective now, it's very dark, 393 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 4: but this realignment is going into. 394 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 2: A very positive direction. 395 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:54,360 Speaker 4: Two weeks ago, before this attack, we were all we 396 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 4: were very concerned by the reft between the United Arab 397 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 4: Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and also very concerned by the 398 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:06,880 Speaker 4: return of anti sematic narrative in the Saudi media. And 399 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 4: then all of a sudden, this always bought a side. 400 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 4: Our Gulf countries are thinking as one collective. They are 401 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 4: facing one enemy, and even more, they are taking the 402 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:21,880 Speaker 4: side of Israel and the United States in the fight 403 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 4: against this enemy. It's huge, it's a huge it's a 404 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 4: gaming changer in my opinion. So from the other our perspective, 405 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 4: things are still are still concerning. However, if you look 406 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 4: at it from the Iranian perspective, of course, I'm very, 407 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 4: very excited to my friends in Iran who are finally 408 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 4: having a real chance to get read of this regime. 409 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 4: This not I wouldn't call it a regime of this 410 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 4: gang that hijacked their country for more than four decades ago, 411 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 4: forty seven years ago specifically, So now they have this chance, 412 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 4: and this chance, by the way, it was not possible 413 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 4: without a foreign intervention. I can see right now, like 414 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 4: people are criticizing, how come, you know, like the regime 415 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 4: is gonna fall in the hands of Americans, So how 416 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:19,200 Speaker 4: can Uranians take credit for that, but the fact is, 417 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:23,439 Speaker 4: this Uranian regime is an ideological regime. It's not just 418 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 4: like any political regime. Breaking an ideology based regime is 419 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 4: very strong because you cannot pull away the pillars giving 420 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 4: this regime intact, like the military for example, or the 421 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 4: second tier of political leadership for exam. You cannot take 422 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 4: them out to let the regime fall because their connection 423 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,239 Speaker 4: to the regime is an ideological connection. So it was 424 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 4: impossible for the non violent activists in Iran to do 425 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 4: that on their own. The other option was to either 426 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 4: if the people in Iran arms and just rebeat the 427 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,479 Speaker 4: scenario of Syria once again and end up with civil 428 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:10,479 Speaker 4: wars that will threaten the entire region, or what just 429 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:15,440 Speaker 4: President Trump did, which is a foreign intervention to wave 430 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 4: the way for the Iranian people to take over. 431 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:20,800 Speaker 2: So but so far, the. 432 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 4: Regime, the Iranian regime is doing its best to survive, 433 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,919 Speaker 4: just once again by trying to widen the scope of 434 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 4: the conflict by targeting energy resources and energy facilities in 435 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 4: our Gulf countries. And let's see what's gonna happen next. 436 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,400 Speaker 1: I suspect it will contribute to a fast downfall for them. 437 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:46,880 Speaker 2: It feels like such an own goal. 438 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 1: They thought if they extended the front of this war 439 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,120 Speaker 1: that it would put pressure on the US in Israel 440 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,119 Speaker 1: to pull back or to stop. But it's had the 441 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:59,480 Speaker 1: complete opposite effect, and it has galvanized people who were 442 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 1: not saying iron a lot of issues. So it's such 443 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 1: an own goal. You were part of the Arab Springs uprising. 444 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 1: You have been part of fighting and a willingness to 445 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,639 Speaker 1: give your life to save your nation, and then you've 446 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 1: watched others come in and destroy that. What lessons were 447 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 1: learned there and what do the Iranian people need to 448 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 1: be hyper vigilant about to ensure the right people go 449 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 1: in when there is a vacuum. 450 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,920 Speaker 4: Oh, it's actually you talk me back to the time 451 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 4: when I tell you even before the Arab Spring happened, 452 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 4: which I proudly participated, and we were looking at the 453 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 4: Iranian people as an example. In Many people don't know that. 454 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 4: In two thousand and nine, the Iranian youth came out 455 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 4: and they did the Green Revolution. It was a big 456 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 4: deal at that time, and I remember I was watching 457 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 4: from Cairo like so many other young liberal activists who 458 00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 4: wanted to bring change to Egypt. And we we're telling 459 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 4: ourselves that if the Iranians do it, we will do 460 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 4: it too. If they get rid of their dictators, we 461 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 4: will get rid of our dictator too. But what happened 462 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 4: is that, unfortunately, because the regime there is very strong, 463 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 4: the regime in Iran is very strong, very ideology, paste 464 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 4: they failed to do that one revolution after the other, 465 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,960 Speaker 4: and actually so many young people had to pay their 466 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 4: lives for. 467 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:27,320 Speaker 2: This to happen. 468 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 4: Tens we're speaking about tens of thousands of young people 469 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 4: who were killed by this brutal regime. We did the 470 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,480 Speaker 4: Arab Spring, but soon after the Arab Spring, we fell 471 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 4: in the same trap that Iran fell in many decades ago, 472 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 4: which is Islamists taking advantage of the young people's revolution 473 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 4: and trying to claim this country. Except that we also, 474 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 4: learning from the example of Iran, we acted very quickly 475 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,640 Speaker 4: in order not to end up with the same scenario 476 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 4: having the Muslim brotherhood in power forever. So I believe 477 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 4: the main listen that the Iranian people need to learn 478 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:12,240 Speaker 4: from the Arab Spring experience is the day after, is 479 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:15,200 Speaker 4: how to prepare for the day after what will happen 480 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 4: after the dictatorship fall. Now we saw the how many 481 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 4: has been killed the REGI and other leaders. 482 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 2: In the Iranian regime. 483 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,479 Speaker 4: The regime is already collapsing as we speak, so sooner 484 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 4: or later this regime will vanish and there will be. 485 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 2: A vacuum in power. 486 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 4: If the Iranian people did not act strategically and quickly 487 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,880 Speaker 4: enough to fill in this vacuum in power with the 488 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 4: right people, with the right persons who support liberalism, who 489 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:53,560 Speaker 4: support democracy, who support rights. Unfortunately, other evil actors will 490 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 4: try to take advantage of the situation and jump in 491 00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 4: and fill in this vacuum in power. So I believe 492 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 4: this is the most important Listen from now, start planning 493 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 4: for the day after the dictator falls. This is very, 494 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 4: very crucial. 495 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 1: How do you think this will change the Middle East? 496 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 1: And do you think, maybe for the first time in 497 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 1: your lifetime, that peace is a legitimate chance. 498 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:21,480 Speaker 2: Because even you look at. 499 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 1: Qatar and it appears as though they are trying to 500 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 1: move away from their faults and behavior of the past 501 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 1: i e. 502 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 2: Harboring Hamasa. 503 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 1: Whether or not that is the case, it appears that 504 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 1: way from the outside, they're trying to be considered and 505 00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 1: looked at as an ally of the US. Could this 506 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,959 Speaker 1: eventuate in peace or is that still fanciful? 507 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 4: Green, I tell you something, and I'm not exaggerating. This 508 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,320 Speaker 4: is the end of the Middle East as we know it. 509 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,400 Speaker 4: Everything you know about the Middle East before is something, 510 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 4: and ever the thing that will come next in the 511 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,400 Speaker 4: Middle East is a totally different thing. And by the way, 512 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 4: this process of death and rebirth in the Middle East 513 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:13,479 Speaker 4: has been happening for two years now, specifically since October seventh, 514 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,800 Speaker 4: which was meant to direct the region into a certain 515 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:22,000 Speaker 4: direction that once again empowered terrorism, empowered Islamist groups, empower 516 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:28,960 Speaker 4: political Islamists, and so but thanks to Israel's very amazing, 517 00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,960 Speaker 4: actually I don't even find the good word to describe it, 518 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:38,200 Speaker 4: very insightful way in dealing with the situation, by focusing 519 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 4: on the head of the snake, by focusing on the source, 520 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 4: the Iranian militia, the armies of Iran, and then after 521 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 4: that Iran itself, and being very strategic, strategic and very 522 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:54,000 Speaker 4: careful of how to navigate this without losing their relationships 523 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,440 Speaker 4: with Arab countries to spite the pressure they were under. 524 00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 2: This was amazing. 525 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 4: This is what creating the new Middle East. Not not 526 00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 4: the use of power, not the use of force alone, 527 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:09,520 Speaker 4: but the strategic use of this power and this force. 528 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 4: And now we are and the peak actually of this 529 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 4: death and repairs process in the Middle East as the 530 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 4: fall of the Iranian regime, which is happening as we 531 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:24,600 Speaker 4: speak right now, thanks to the pressure put by the 532 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:30,400 Speaker 4: US military and the US Israel campaign to finish this job. 533 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 4: So now a new Middle East will be born. In 534 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:38,440 Speaker 4: this new Middle East, actually, I believe the main power, 535 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 4: or the two main powers who will dictate the future 536 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 4: or set the agenda for the future of this Middle 537 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 4: East are not Iran, are not Arabs. All Arabs are 538 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:51,400 Speaker 4: not Arabs, are not Iran. 539 00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 2: But Turkey and Israel. 540 00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 4: These are the two main powers that will dictate the 541 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 4: future of the Middle East from now on. In the US, 542 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:06,560 Speaker 4: in Washington, there are clear assessments about that. And we 543 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,120 Speaker 4: saw even recently President Trump in the Board of Peace 544 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,799 Speaker 4: he tried to speak about or he actually mentioned the 545 00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 4: necessity of bringing cutter sorry, Turkey and Israel closer together 546 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 4: once again. And why because the assessment here in Washington 547 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:28,280 Speaker 4: is that these are the future leaders of the region, 548 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:31,240 Speaker 4: and we need to make sure that they will work together, 549 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,240 Speaker 4: not again ast each other. I mean the era where 550 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,240 Speaker 4: we saw Arabs taking the lead is not going to 551 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:44,320 Speaker 4: be the case anymore either the bassist and nacerist Arabs, 552 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 4: like the example of Egypt and Syria in the past, 553 00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 4: or the post Arabs bring Arab leadership in the form 554 00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,399 Speaker 4: of the Arab golf countries. No, forget about all of that. 555 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,160 Speaker 4: It's not that it's obviously not Iran. 556 00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 2: We are now on. 557 00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,239 Speaker 4: The verge of seeing new Iran being rebuilt and it 558 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 4: will be a more once again, a civilized Iran that 559 00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,759 Speaker 4: respects its neighbors. It's not the Islamic regime Iran. So 560 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,879 Speaker 4: it will be, yes, a key actor. Arabs, of course 561 00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 4: will continue to be a key actor, but not the 562 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:19,240 Speaker 4: leaders because once again Arabs because of their economic power, 563 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,279 Speaker 4: Iran because of its cultural power. But it will not 564 00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:27,680 Speaker 4: be They will not be the leaders. The big sisters, 565 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 4: in other words, the big sisters for the region will 566 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,080 Speaker 4: be Turkey and Israel, and we have to account for that, 567 00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 4: we have to plan for that, we have to understand 568 00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 4: the future of the region based on that. 569 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:45,400 Speaker 1: It's interesting because I think at every opportunity that Trump 570 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:49,640 Speaker 1: and Urduwan have come together, Trump has said consistently he's 571 00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 1: a really good guy. 572 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:51,400 Speaker 2: I really like him. 573 00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 1: He's a good boke, he's a good bike and those 574 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,400 Speaker 1: of us who know a lot about him kind of 575 00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:59,920 Speaker 1: cringe and go ugh. But the necessity of what is 576 00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 1: to come and pushing that relationship with Israel sounds like 577 00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 1: it will be absolutely key. Finally, on a personal note 578 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 1: for you, you mentioned Egypt. I think I saw that 579 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:15,080 Speaker 1: Egypt is going to allow Israeli planes to take off 580 00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,040 Speaker 1: in land and there'd be some kind of evacuation or 581 00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:21,279 Speaker 1: coming in coming out process there. Does that give you 582 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,239 Speaker 1: hope for maybe a future where you can go back 583 00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:28,840 Speaker 1: to your country where there are relations that are less 584 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:30,360 Speaker 1: less tense. 585 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:35,640 Speaker 4: Unfortunately, it's still not a possibility. It's Egypt is yes, 586 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:40,000 Speaker 4: or maybe from time to time they make guest stures 587 00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,880 Speaker 4: that make them appear like they are finally opening up 588 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,719 Speaker 4: to Israel or becoming friendly to Israel, but no, unfortunately 589 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:50,080 Speaker 4: this is not the case right now. For example, while 590 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:55,360 Speaker 4: they are availing their Taba, a city very close to 591 00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,920 Speaker 4: the border with Israel, availing the airport in Taba for 592 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,480 Speaker 4: israel Is to travel to back to their countries because 593 00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:04,960 Speaker 4: the airspace in Israel. 594 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 2: Is not available. At that same time, the. 595 00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:12,399 Speaker 4: Egyptian president the other day was making a very vague 596 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 4: speech to the leaders of the military about potential conflict 597 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:22,320 Speaker 4: without naming names, but you can tell from his words 598 00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,040 Speaker 4: that he is referring to Israel. Also, if you follow 599 00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,480 Speaker 4: the Egyptian media, it's very disturbing. They are copying the 600 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:34,800 Speaker 4: Turkey narrative about Iran. They are mirroring exactly the Turkish position. 601 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 4: And also once again they are framing us if we 602 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,919 Speaker 4: let Iran fall, this means Israel will be stronger and 603 00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 4: this will be a threat to Egypt. Although Israel literally, 604 00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,600 Speaker 4: at least since the peace treaty, they have never been 605 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:51,360 Speaker 4: a threat to Egypt. But this is the logic in Egypt, 606 00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,960 Speaker 4: and as long as this continues, unfortunately, all the political 607 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:56,440 Speaker 4: guest shures will mean nothing. 608 00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 1: Now, you're absolutely right, and I suspect it's a very 609 00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 1: similar case Katar as well. Even reading their statement, it 610 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,239 Speaker 1: didn't mention Israel. It talked about the death of civilians 611 00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,239 Speaker 1: and how appalling that was. And I'm there thinking how 612 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,600 Speaker 1: many civilians died in October seven that you were directly 613 00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,400 Speaker 1: involved in, and then you protected and harbored the people 614 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,480 Speaker 1: who actually carried it out. Yeah, come on, you can't 615 00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:24,160 Speaker 1: just care now that it's your own civilians. Dahlia's YadA brilliant. 616 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,439 Speaker 1: Is always so good to have you on. I can't 617 00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,680 Speaker 1: wait to hear hear your thoughts as we move further 618 00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,880 Speaker 1: along and hopefully not too much of an extended conflict. 619 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,960 Speaker 4: Thank you, thank you so much, Irian, thank you. 620 00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,000 Speaker 1: Well, thank you so much for joining us here on 621 00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,399 Speaker 1: the Aeron Mullins Show. 622 00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:42,440 Speaker 2: We hope you've enjoyed it. 623 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,120 Speaker 1: We will see you not just Monday six am, but 624 00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,440 Speaker 1: weekend episodes on the Salem News Channel and of course 625 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,600 Speaker 1: just all the time, because it's all we do.