WEBVTT - Primary Day in 6 States 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, all Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 Hilldale Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hilldale dialogues, all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:19.640 iTunes and Hilldale Morning Laura and Iman Grace America. I'm 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:22.800 give you went on this August eleventh, twenty twenty six. 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:26.720 I understand down the line in Dallas, we may have 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:30.320 some problems technical problems with our radio broadcast. But welcome 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:32.640 to the Sale News Channel, which I hope you turn 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:35.640 to every day anyway, and do all of our affiliates 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:39.479 across the United States especially want to say hello to 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:45.000 our listeners in Oa Claire, Wisconsin on WOGO six eighty 0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:48.400 I believe that is, and to our they've got a 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:51.800 repeater on one O three point one as well. FM. 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:56.680 Get out and vote. We cover a lot of Wisconsin 0:00:56.960 --> 0:01:01.880 out of Chicago, WI and D five sixty and w 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:05.240 I in D five point sixty, and we pick up 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:09.520 western Wisconsin from Am Toby to the Patriot. So get 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:13.280 out there and vote. It's an open primary. Republicans can 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.399 vote in the Democratic primary if they want. It's a 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:19.800 carnival of craziness over there. So I want to start 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:24.559 with Francesca Hong, who is the state senator, allegedly leading 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.160 by double digits. But that's what they said about LSA 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:30.040 ED and Michigan. The polls were all broken there, so 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:33.320 I'm not you know, if you are in favor of 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:37.039 mister Barnes, get out there and vote for mister Barnes. 0:01:37.040 --> 0:01:38.760 If you're in favor of mister Crowley, get out there 0:01:38.760 --> 0:01:42.640 and vote for mister Crowley. It's not over till it's over. 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:45.479 Francesca Hong, though, was doing the best that she can 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:50.280 to put a bullet in her own campaign cut number eight. 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:52.240 Francesca Hong earlier. 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:57.000 Today, I learned then you have some hot takes, sometimes 0:01:57.040 --> 0:01:59.840 bad takes on Twitter, and I let my feelings out 0:01:59.880 --> 0:02:02.360 in the world. And right now as governor, what I'm 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:05.040 most serious about are the issues that voters are telling 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.680 me they want solutions for, for permanent affordability, to tax 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:11.280 the ultra rich, to make sure we're getting corruption like 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:13.919 he is out of politics, to make sure that we're 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:16.920 fully funding public schools, and that we're fighting for universal 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:18.560 childcare and raising wages. 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:22.160 Anybody want to guess how many billionaires we have in 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:25.400 the United States. I actually went to chetch Ebt to 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:29.399 look up these numbers. Okay, ultra rich, that means billionaires, right, 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.200 and so how many of them have we got? We 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:35.600 have a grand total of nine hundred and eighty nine billionaires. 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:39.760 They're worth eight trillion dollars. I don't think a lot 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:42.840 of them live in Wisconsin. Some of them do. But 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:45.840 you're not going to raise a lot of money taxing billionaire. 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:50.160 And we have about ten thousand cent to millionaires people 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:53.240 are worth one hundred million dollars or more. And we've 0:02:53.280 --> 0:02:59.640 got about twelve thousand Americans with ten million dollars or 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:05.120 more in their retirement accounts. Plus we've got lots of 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:09.600 Americans who are multimillionaires because they own a house in 0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:11.160 the right part of the country and they've owned the 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.280 house for thirty years. So when you hear Democrats, it's 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:17.480 about talking about the taxing the rich. It's either not 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:20.359 going to be efficacious, it's not going to work right, 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:22.520 it won't raise the revenue that they think it's going 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:27.639 to raise. Moreover, they're really talking about you if you 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:31.240 own a house. That's what they're talking They're talking about you, 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.359 if you own a house. She also went on to 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:39.280 elaborate on her philosophy. Today cut number nine, Francesca hung 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:41.600 again outside of polling place, feeling. 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:45.600 Stop feeling good like she day is always an exciting day. 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.720 Have you spoken to yours? I've not spoken to the 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:51.160 governor yet quite early. I want to let him have 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:52.040 his coffee first. 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.000 Are you concerned though it's been a tough primary? Do 0:03:55.040 --> 0:03:56.720 you need a united party in November? 0:03:56.840 --> 0:04:00.400 Can you get everybody back on the same team. 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:04.200 We need an We need a united party. We are 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:07.040 ready to unite not just the party, but working class 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:10.560 people all across the state to defeat Tom Tiffany in November. 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:12.760 Do you feel like your policies are the future of 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:14.440 the Democratic Party. 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:18.480 I think our policies are ones that are the solutions 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:22.039 to live for working class people, permanent affordability, so we 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:24.920 don't come back to moments like these. I think the 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:28.600 Democratic Party we are a big tent party. There's always 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.239 room for better policies and always room for more people. 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.839 Who would you look prepared for this intense pushback that 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:38.039 you've received, especially from Republicans framing you as far too 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:39.479 extreme for Wisconsin. 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:45.839 What's extreme is Congressman Tiffany, a longtime DC congressman, has 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:49.880 voted against the interests of Wisconsin. It's over and over again. 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:52.839 What's extreme is that he's an election denial What's extreme 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:56.880 he continues to protect Epstein and pedophiles. What's extreme is 0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:59.800 that he has voted to help raise gas prices, and 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:03.960 they like harder for Wisconsins. I think what people of 0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:07.480 our state are ready for. The good people of Wisconsin 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.320 are ready for a government that actually puts them first, 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:11.000 not Trump. 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:15.160 Do you really think the good people of Wisconsin are 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:18.640 turned on by the Epstein talking point? I'm always it's 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:20.400 just kind of a giveaway that you've got nothing to 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:24.200 say if you're talking about Epstein. Meanwhile, Tony Evers, who 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:29.520 was the incumbent Democratic governor of Wisconsin, is begging Democrats 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:32.480 not to vote for her because she's a nut. And 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:35.840 he was out at a polling pace polling place himself 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:36.800 cut number ten. 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:44.440 He has spent with her entire campaign dealing with not 0:05:44.520 --> 0:05:48.919 with the Issuers, but what's on the Twitter. And I 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:51.400 just find that that's not a good way to be 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:52.480 Tom Tiffany. 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:56.839 A good way to win anything is to be online 0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:01.120 too much, and that's what Francesca is. But it's not over. 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:04.760 You can vote till eight o'clock in Wisconsin. Let's go 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:08.360 check in on Peggy Flanagan, who is running for Senate 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:12.760 in Minnesota. She was on that reliable place for left 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:17.240 wing lunatics MS now with Ali bel She cut number thirteen. 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:20.800 In at July twenty seventh debate. She said, Republicans are 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:22.200 going to have a field day with this with you, 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:25.080 and it's my responsibility to warn Democratic primary voters that 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:27.599 Republicans are dying to run against you because they believe 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.120 you have a unique vulnerability on fraud. 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:32.120 Your response, I mean. 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:34.720 My response to that is that Republicans are running against 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:39.400 every Democrat in this race on that issue. 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:43.080 Not much of a response, but quite a look if 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:47.880 you're not watching on Salem News Channel. She got the big, big, big, 0:06:47.920 --> 0:06:50.880 big big black classes. Now, I've got nothing against black classes. 0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:53.240 I've worn them my whole life. I started wearing them 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:56.480 when my late father in law, Wilberhelmer, said that's what 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:58.440 the Marine Corps issued to him when he joined the 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:01.880 Marine Corps in nineteen thirty nine or nineteen forty, and 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:03.800 it'll warn him ever since. And I thought, you know what, 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:07.080 you stick with black glasses the same size. It's kind 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.960 of easy to go into the optometrist in order. I 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:12.080 don't know if that's a fashion statement or not. Can 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.680 we roll that again in case, I just want to 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:17.920 try and get a measurement on it. Let's play Cut 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:20.160 number thirteen. 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:22.840 In at July twenty seventh debates, you said Republicans are 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:24.760 gonna have a field day with this with you, he's 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:27.840 my responsibility to warn Democratic primary voters that Republicans are 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.240 dying to run against you because they believe you have 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.200 a unique vulnerability on fraud. 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.200 Your response, I mean. 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:39.040 By response to that is that, well we lost it. 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.640 Were they too big to fit in the frame? Oh 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:45.840 well they were big. They were big. Let's go down now. 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.480 Since we're playing it's the greatest it's of weird Democrats 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:54.240 opening James Taller Rico. He's something they think he's gonna 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:57.440 win in Texas. Cut number eleven from a stump speech. 0:07:57.600 --> 0:07:58.880 Yeah, time. 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:04.080 It is time to repeal the Big Ugly Bill's tax 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:05.480 cuts for the wealthy. 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:09.520 And give out one stealing dollars to the clos. 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:12.800 Okay, that would mean a tax hike on every Texan 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:17.520 because the One Big Beautiful Bill took away not only 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:22.560 taxes on Social Security, taxes on taxes on overtime. It 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:25.760 kept in place the Trump tax cuts from twenty seventeen, 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:29.680 which cut taxes for every American in every bracket. So 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:33.360 what mister Talla Rica wants to do is raise taxes 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:37.200 on every American. Way to go for Texas, he continued, 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:38.200 Cut number twelve. 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:43.360 Trickle down economics is not a theory. It is theft. 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:47.439 They have been stealing from all of us who have 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:50.840 been doing the actual work in this economy. And for 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:56.199 five decades, Republicans and too many Democrats have sold the 0:08:56.240 --> 0:09:00.000 false gospel of trickle down economics. 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:01.840 The idea, the idea. 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:04.040 That the best way to grow the economy is to 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.800 let the ridge get richer and forget about the rest 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:07.120 of us. 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:09.480 That would be a lie. 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:13.079 And by the way, trickle down economics is not gospel. 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:18.280 It's the talking point adjective given to supply side economics, 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.199 which boom the country during the Reagan years and boom 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:23.200 the country and Trump won and beginning to boom the 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:25.880 country again in Trump two because it works when you 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:28.280 let people keep their own harder and money and spend 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.600 it in the way that they want. We're back in America, 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:33.280 Hude Hewett. It's been too long since I've talked with 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:36.640 Ben and Ben Talabu. He is the senior research fellow 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:39.680 at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.960 director of the Iran Program. Benam welcome back. It's been 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:45.320 too long. I want to give you the floor for 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:48.320 your assessment of where we stand in the battle with 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:51.280 Iran as of today, August eleventh. 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:55.920 Great to be with you, Hugh, It's always a pleasure listen. 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:59.040 I'll keep it short. The President is picking up on 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:03.040 a strategy that was actually successful in term one, but 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:05.520 he's adding to it something and that's the blockade. So 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:09.120 it seems like what's being popularly reported that after the 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:12.040 thirteen days of strikes, that after the attempt to open 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:14.520 up the straight of horror moves, the president is going 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:17.680 to be relying on two pillars, particularly before the midterms. 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:20.760 The first is maximum pressure sanctions to put the economic 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:23.240 squeeze on the Islamic Republic and to keep it there 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:25.600 and escalate it over time, and to make sure that 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:28.600 the regime doesn't have the cash on hand for lack 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:31.080 of a better world to build back better. And on 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:33.400 the second it's the blockade, it's to find a way 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:36.440 to kind of physically constrain the regime to make sure 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:39.520 that they can't export their most important source of revenue, 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.400 which is energy from the Persian Gulf, and to be 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:45.320 able together on the finance side and the commodity sky 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:48.120 to squeeze in this regime to make them have more 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:50.640 of a budgetary crisis, and to force them into a 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:54.160 position of either surrender, submission, or making mistakes. The only 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:58.160 challenge here is that Trump administration should not prepare for failure. 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.680 They should prepare for success because this will squeeze the regime. 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:04.640 The regime is likely going to respond unless we forget. 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:08.600 Despite the capability and capacity the Trump administration has taken 0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:11.840 away in the multiple cycles of violence against the regime 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:16.120 this year, this regime feels more confidence because it survives. 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:19.040 So even though they have less to actually punch back with, 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.000 they are more eager to punch back and earlier in 0:11:22.040 --> 0:11:24.560 the conflict. So as they feel the squeeze, you know, 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:27.160 Washington better have a strategy for a way to deal 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.240 with that squeeze, even though it is popular being called 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:33.280 the low key way to deal with this regime before 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:33.960 the midterms. 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:37.240 So benam A lot of questions follow from that. The 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:41.720 first one is during Blockade Part one that ended with 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.760 the MoU that then failed. During that we heard a 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:49.040 lot about the storage capacity of the Iranian regime. I've 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:52.680 heard nothing about that in Blockade two. Do they have 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:56.320 the same infrastructure problem, the same problem with shutting down 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:58.800 wells and not being able to restart them that we 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:00.720 heard about during Blockade one? 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:05.320 In my view, yes, But in Blockade one, something that 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:09.360 is technically true or physically true may not be politically 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.240 true for this regime, which is, yes, you can have 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:13.960 a storage crisis, Yes you can have an energy crisis, 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.120 and yes you can even have a budgetary crisis from 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:21.160 the infrastructural crisis that follows. But because this is an 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:24.959 Islamist Homanist authoritarian regime that is playing to the edge, 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:29.040 that believes the stakes are borderline, if not directly existential, 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.680 the things that might normally constrain and restrain the foreign 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:35.839 policy behavior of a normal state are not yet at 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:38.240 all in play here. I mean, this regime understands that 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:42.320 so long as President Trump is in office, any kind 0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:47.040 of real you know, more meeting the administration more than 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.440 halfway could come with a political cost and a security cost, 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:53.000 and that's why they're inclined to double down and triple down. 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:56.040 And so in the short term, you know, trying to 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.880 see where the infrastructure will force the regime to sur 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:04.000 is a necessary but not sufficient way to understand what 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:07.000 the metrics are that will compel the regime to be 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:10.520 boxed in. So I'm glad folks are not over focusing 0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:13.800 on the shortcomings and the challenges in running infrastructure, and 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.559 instead what they need to focus on is the big picture, 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.960 the macro economics, the fact that the regime is going 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:22.760 to be bleeding and bleeding and bleeding, and how the 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:26.240 regime tries to triage the bleeding. There that's when the 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.000 opportunities arise for umpicle stam. It's not just going to 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.239 be based in my view, on the infrastructure alone. 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:36.240 Now, Benham, it's my belief that a regime like this 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:40.120 will loot its own people and provided that they can 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.640 feed the quarter million hiere GC And however, many people 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:46.960 are in the besiege that they don't really care about 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:49.480 the suffering of their own people. So the inflation can 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.720 be eighty eight percent overall, one hundred and twenty percent 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:55.360 over a year over year in food, and they won't blink. 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:58.680 Is that true that they'll basically go to the mattresses 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:01.560 and loot their own people wealth just to stay in power. 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.120 Well, unfortunately, it's been true for the past four decades, 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:09.320 depending on particularly in what time you're looking at it. 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:14.160 It's precisely why the protesters really since two thousand and nine, 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:17.440 have targeted the regime's foreign in security policy, because the 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:21.560 things the regime prioritizes are the antithesis of the things 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:24.880 the nation, the street, the people prioritize. It's why there 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:28.440 is such a sharp chasm between state and society in 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:31.200 that country. It's perhaps one of the greatest chasms that 0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:33.600 we see in the Middle East, which is not demographic, 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:37.080 it's ideological. It's that you have an Islamist, anti American, 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:40.640 anti Israeli government and a nationalist, secular, pro American, pro 0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:43.280 Israeli society, and these two things are like oil and water. 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.080 So the regime is only too happy to try to 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:48.560 find a way to transfer the cost. But it's kind 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:51.920 of already been doing that already. So the challenge for 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:54.360 the regime in the short to medium term is how 0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.240 does it manage the budgetary crisis, How does it manage, 0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:00.240 for example, the subsidy crisis, and how does does it 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:03.200 not actually lead to a situation where it finds itself 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:06.760 under foreign pressure and domestic pressure at the exact same time. 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.040 And if you pay attention closely, it's why there was 0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:11.760 musical chairs just a few days ago in Tehran. They're 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:14.480 putting in a new leadership for the besiege. They're trying 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.440 to show strength militarily. They're trying to have an ideologue 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:21.240 greater you could even imagine, an ideological veneer to the 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.600 world and to the Irobian people to say basically, we're 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:25.960 not going to cave and that we can afford to 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:28.600 be in the red. That's precisely the message that the 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:30.480 new men at the Helm are designed to send. 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:35.000 So Benam I didn't know. I did note the musical 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:38.440 chairs and THEHITI gets a new job and Xyz gets 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:42.120 another job. They didn't mention anything about the arteche you're 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:45.800 the senior director. Is there a possible division between the 0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:49.600 ARTECH and the RGDC, the RTEs being the regular military. 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:53.720 Is that something we might see and be exploitable in 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:55.840 the near term. 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.440 You know, it's something that should be cultivated, particularly because 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.520 the RTEs is a force that has been really squandered 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.520 given the inheritance of the Islamic Republic from the pro 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:10.239 American Pathlavi dynasty prior to nineteen seventy nine. But institutionally 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:13.080 the artees has been weakened and then co opted such 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:15.520 that the ARTEESH was even launching some drone attacks on 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:18.920 neighboring Kuwait during the early period of the fighting after 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.720 the Forty Day War and after the MoU collapse, for example. 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.600 So we shouldn't put all our eggs in the Arteese basket. 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:28.000 But something America and in particular the intelligence community really 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:31.240 needs to unleash here is the capability to get creative 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:34.240 against the Islamic Republic, to play to this selfishness and 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:37.840 the opportunism and the desire for self preservation that exists 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:41.560 across armed forces across many different authoritarian regimes, and to 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.120 be able to turn on or ignite a different front 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:47.720 based on real sentiment due to real shortcomings like the 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:53.160 fact that the RTESCH had been so squandered and deprioritized 0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.360 compared to the revolutionary Successor organization. 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.160 The IRGC is there, and. 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.680 We got a minute to the brain any indication coming 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:07.520 out through opposition media of cracks in the regime, benam. 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:09.399 You know, this is actually where I disagree with the 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.359 conventional wisdom. Just because there is a loud debate in 0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:15.639 Iran does not necessarily mean that that is the signal 0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:17.359 and the fact in my view, that is the noise. 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:19.840 My fear is in the short to medium term, what 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:23.440 we see from regime elites is actually more cohesion than fracture. 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:27.040 It's literally just like something that is calcifying. This system 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:30.240 does not bend, it will break though, and we are 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:34.360 watching the calcification of a generation of hardline national security 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.600 elites that aren't from one faction another faction, but are 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:41.000 all from within one larger hard line faction. So the 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:46.480 intra factional disputes, the intra IRGC disputes, the intra Iran 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.960 Iraq war veterans, debates among friends and like minded people 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.359 are much more important than debates among the other factions. 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:56.160 I will be right back with Ben and Ben Talablue 0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:59.280 from the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy. We'll talk about 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:13.160 pick Action Next. Stay tuned America, Welcome Back America. Ben 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.960 and Ben Talabou is the Senior Director Senior Fellow at 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:20.800 the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He's also run 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.360 the Iran program there. Ben a month ago I talked 0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:27.440 to President Trump on this program about Pickaxe Mountain said 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:29.320 it was time to put a missile in the front door. 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.280 That didn't happen. How much are you worried about that? 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:35.080 Because the President didn't seem to be overly concerned. 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:40.000 The President is right to have a measure of confidence 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:42.960 given the fact that the fisile material, meaning the uranium 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.480 that has to be further enriched to actually get a bomb, 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.919 is believed to be under Isfahan and under Natans. But 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:52.280 this is a regime that is still in power. It's 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:54.320 not a race to a bomb. It's a slow, steady 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:57.240 quest for a bomb. And Pickaxe mounted is worrisome for 0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:59.159 me and a lot of other Iran washers and a 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:01.240 lot of other arms controllers and a lot of other 0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:05.040 non proliferation experts because it could be a future enrichment 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:07.600 site and the regime has already said that this is 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:11.160 going to be at the very least a centrifuge manufacturing site, 0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:15.199 and given a that we lost continuity of knowledge and 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:19.320 the additional protocol of the IAEA during the Biden administration 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:22.320 as early as February twenty twenty one, and b in 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:25.440 terms of declared enrichment uranium sites that the President has 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:27.760 struck since the Twelve Day War, we haven't had the 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:30.840 IE go into those sites. Pickaxe Mountain, which is at 0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:34.000 least two to three times deeper than four dough and 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:36.720 was not struck by the US or Israelis and either 0:19:36.720 --> 0:19:39.280 of the two military operations. The fact that that could 0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:41.800 be used to squirrel away uranium, or the fact that 0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:44.919 could be used as part of some larger breakout effort 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:48.159 is very worrisome, and particularly if you zoom out and 0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:50.960 you look at the trend line of how America and 0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:55.320 the West's adversaries have been increasingly using subterranean facilities and 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:58.800 tunneling to preserve some of their core capabilities. This regime, 0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:03.520 nuclear and missile hamas, certainly it's Arsenal, the cartels on 0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:06.399 the southern border their weapons and also their drugs, and 0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:09.959 certainly the North Koreans their military industrial complex. We're going 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:11.639 to have to find a way to either build a 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:14.119 bigger bomb or neutralize this facility. 0:20:14.840 --> 0:20:18.440 Okay, last question magazine depth is talked about is a 0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:22.720 constraint on the American war fighting ability because we lack interceptors. 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:26.520 You did the original research paper on magazine depth for 0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:30.000 the Iranian missile program. How do you assess the Iranian 0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:35.199 missile magazine depth now after six months of on and 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:35.600 off war. 0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:39.680 Well, we have to be incredibly humble when it comes 0:20:39.720 --> 0:20:42.360 to whatever the base number or the baseline is from 0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:45.400 which we draw assessments about magazine depth. But what we 0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:47.680 saw during the Twelve Day War, what we saw during 0:20:47.720 --> 0:20:49.800 the forty day ward, what we saw with the intermitted 0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:54.000 skirmishes against the Arab world, and critical infrastructure in US bases. 0:20:54.040 --> 0:20:57.359 Following that and following the MoU tells me one big 0:20:57.400 --> 0:21:01.000 bright thing that the Islamic Republic is just as concerned, 0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:04.160 if not more concerned, with magazine depth than the US 0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:07.240 is with tea, lambs and interceptors and everything else. And 0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:11.040 the reason is Iran's defense, industrial base and ballistic missile 0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:15.480 production infrastructure is largely above ground, and the US largely 0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:19.760 did real and meaningful damage setting back that production capability 0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:22.520 several years that doesn't mean they won't be able to 0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:25.399 regroup and rebuild, particularly if we have sanctions in the 0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:28.840 blockade and are willing to do interdictions and interceptions, particularly 0:21:28.840 --> 0:21:31.160 if it comes from states like Russia, China and North 0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:35.360 Korea for example. But ultimately Iran knows that as much 0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:37.879 as of its arsenal it's been able to excavate and 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:40.720 dig out from bases that were struck, the ability to 0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:43.639 backfill that which it fires or that which it uses 0:21:43.680 --> 0:21:48.080 to threaten is significantly limited. And that's why both during 0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:51.240