1 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to a special mini episode. 2 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 2: I guess you can call it of the Eron Mullin Show. 3 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 1: Great to have your company, I guess is retired Rear 4 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:22,759 Speaker 1: Admiral Mark Montgomery. A phenomenal interview with him. He sees 5 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,279 Speaker 1: it from a place of experience, and yes, that is 6 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: a foreign concept to a lot of people who speak 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: with authority in this space. He can identify what is 8 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: an actual threat, unlike some of those who very publicly 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: resigned from the US administration this week. Didn't feel genuine, 10 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: did it, And of course I refer to Joe Kent, 11 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: it felt very, very calculated. Let's get the Rear admiral's 12 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: take on whether or not this Islamic regime was a threat. 13 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: Mark Montgomery, thank you so so much for joining us 14 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: here on the Eron Mullin Show. 15 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: It's such a pleasure to have you. 16 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 3: Thank you very much for having me er and. 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your service. 18 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: I'd like to start with Joe Kent if I may, 19 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 1: and of course thank him for his service remotely. His 20 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: assessment is that the islambon crazy Game of Iron was 21 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 1: not an imminent threat. 22 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 2: Is that correct in your opinion? 23 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 3: You know, imminent it's a tough word, right. 24 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 4: I think they're an ongoing, persistent threat, So to me, 25 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 4: that's imminent. 26 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 3: Right. 27 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 4: If they're ongoing and persistent, that's going on. But I 28 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 4: understand what he's saying that there had not been a 29 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 4: substantial change in the threat since the Israeli attacks in 30 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 4: the Twelve Day War. So what he is saying is, 31 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 4: I wasn't see I'm sitting here, the person who's supposed 32 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,279 Speaker 4: to monitor for counter terrorism threats to the United States. 33 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 4: I wasn't seeing a change. So to say that they 34 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 4: are an imminent threat, you know, they are a terrorist state. 35 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 4: Who's a inminent threat. He wasn't seeing it. I'd say, 36 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 4: you have to step back further than him. And I 37 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 4: don't agree with the president on everything, but I do agree. 38 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:53,639 Speaker 3: With them on this. This is his job. 39 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 4: It's the President Trump's job to assess is a country 40 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 4: a threat to US national security interests? And he made 41 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 4: the determination that was And I can proved you one 42 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 4: hundred ways where there was ongoing persistent things, whether it 43 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 4: was through Huti's whether it was through Syrian and Iraqi 44 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 4: based IRGC proxy forces, through Hesblah, or through the actions 45 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 4: of the regime itself in all of those areas. You know, 46 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 4: the Iritan regime presented a long standing, forty seven year 47 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 4: persistent threat to its Arab neighbors, Israel and the United States. 48 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: You've been in situations where you are giving advice to 49 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: very powerful people. 50 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 2: How difficult is it? 51 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: And is there a balance when it comes to that 52 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: if you know that that advice may not be welcomed. 53 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 3: No, it's hard. 54 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 4: And you know there's two different types of disagreement. I mean, 55 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 4: if you have a subjective policy disagreement, your job is 56 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 4: to accept what your spirits says and carry it out. 57 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 4: If you think it's an ill legal order or an 58 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 4: order that's unsafe for the men and women that work 59 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 4: for you, you have a different responsibility that has not 60 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 4: been broached here. This was simply a case. 61 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 3: So Kent did the right thing. If you feel you 62 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 3: can't work with him, that it's a policy difference. He 63 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 3: didn't do it that day. He waited, you know, two. 64 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 4: Three weeks and decided to leave. Personally, he could have 65 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 4: waited longer. I think you know, no one sits around 66 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 4: fretting about who's the NCT. You know, the National Categterism 67 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:32,399 Speaker 4: Center director. Right, So you know, his announcement. It might 68 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 4: have been time. I'm not sure if it was time 69 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 4: for Tolsey Gabber's testimony the next day. It's called our 70 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 4: our our threat Intel, our worldwide threat Intel. 71 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 3: You know, briefing occurred by Yeah, all of our intel. 72 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 4: Officials from Director C, I, A, D, N, I, N say, 73 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 4: all the three letter agencies, right, so they're all up 74 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 4: their FBI. Maybe he timed it for that. It certainly 75 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 4: became a big element of that hearing. 76 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: There's probably also well there is we know, a slot 77 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 1: on Tucker's show that's opened up, so we don't know 78 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 1: whether timing had anything to do with that as well. 79 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 1: But the other point I'll make, and then we'll move 80 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: on because I want to talk about the stuff that 81 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 1: really matters on the ground in Iran. There are reports 82 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: that he was being left out of some fairly significant 83 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 1: intelligence sharing because there were fears regarding whether or not 84 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: leakages were occurring. 85 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 2: That could also be a reason. 86 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 1: Maybe in his mind the intelligence he was seeing did 87 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: not make him fear, but he was maybe not seeing 88 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:32,679 Speaker 1: the entire picture. 89 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 3: It could be true. 90 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 4: It is unhealthy to have someone in that senior position 91 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 4: not be exposed to all the intelligence in that case, 92 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 4: you know, you know that should be part of his statements. 93 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 3: I was uncomfortable wasn't being given on intelligence to leak 94 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 3: Someone's probably leaked. 95 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 4: That out on his behalf and that that doesn't resolve 96 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 4: the issue, right, And I do think it's I'm uncomfortable 97 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 4: that so many people and the massure because I think 98 00:04:56,880 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 4: the same thing he was said about Tulca Gabber. Watching 99 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 4: the hearing today, there's no doubt who's in charge of 100 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 4: US intelligence. 101 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 3: It's John Radcliffe, the director of the CIA. 102 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 4: You know that was abundantly clear for three and a 103 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 4: half hours blind. 104 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: Freddie could have told you that after watching that absolutely right. 105 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: Looking at what's happening in Iran right now, I mean, 106 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: it's not a great place to be the next in 107 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 1: line or to be someone significant. Do you think that 108 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: potentially it could be people who are looking around who 109 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: have thought previously in that administration that they were fairly important, 110 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 1: who were still alive and going, what's wrong with me? 111 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 3: Am? 112 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 2: I'm obviously not a big enough deal to have been 113 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 2: taken out. 114 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 4: See right, So you know we have you know, there's 115 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 4: an end's discussion of what are the strategic instates we're 116 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 4: looking for. That's a little confusing, But then there's a 117 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 4: ways and means that's not confusing. That's the kind of 118 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,679 Speaker 4: six lines of effort that the US and Israeli forces 119 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 4: are pursuing. And and you know, the first one was 120 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 4: suppression of enemy air defense and that's all that's done, 121 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 4: so only one that's probably done done. 122 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 3: But the next one on there. 123 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 4: Was a tax on IERGI leadership, ERODN and rovershrit Guard 124 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 4: court leadership and their facilities. And yeah, there's been a 125 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 4: they've worked their way up and down and around the chain. 126 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 4: I'm hoping, you know, it's clear that we in the 127 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 4: Israelis were listening to a lot of communications. I mean 128 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 4: we were watching, you were able to We're inside travel 129 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,799 Speaker 4: you know, street light cameras and things, or traffic light cameras. 130 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 4: I'm hoping there was a guy who's like calling his wife, going, man, 131 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 4: these guys around me are crazy. 132 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 3: These are money in the Cayman's okay, you know, and 133 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 3: that's the guy. We're like, okay, we're gonna be going 134 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 3: to work with that guy. We understand what matters to him. 135 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 4: It wasn't he wasn't a you know, a a hardliner. 136 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 2: He was in it for the money. 137 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 3: He's flexible. His wife is flexible with him. You know, 138 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 3: they're both alive. 139 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 4: Let's work, let's go, let's get down to him, let's 140 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 4: create the dig I don't know, maybe that hasn't happened, 141 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 4: but in that second line of. 142 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 3: Effort, we are doing a lot. Now. 143 00:06:56,560 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 4: Look, I think there's a different we kind of I think, no, oh, 144 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:02,799 Speaker 4: it's unlikely you're going to get resume change out of this. Again, 145 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 4: President hasn't clearly said his strategic against states. 146 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 3: I don't think that's one of them. 147 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 4: I think aspirationally, the Israeli still hope they can get there, 148 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 4: and that's why you see them really working over that 149 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 4: line of succession. And you're right, I would right now. 150 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 4: You know, you know, when they say who wants this job? 151 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 4: One step forward, I think everyone's taking one step back 152 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 4: and hoping to a little bit of you know, Benny Hill. 153 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was thinking a British version of a Yes 154 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: Prime Minister or a Blackadder. 155 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 2: I don't know if you're that familiar with that comedy. 156 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 2: Looking at where to from here? 157 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 1: And you're right, I think Israel is much more invested 158 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: for very obvious reasons in regime change, it's much more 159 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: existential for them. You've seen that in Yahoo alongside you know, 160 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: his big decision makers overnight, essentially saying to the Iranian people, 161 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: we're in the skies, we're watching go out and celebrate 162 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: that they're starting to take out the IAGC and those 163 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: in the regime who are targeting civilians. We're seeing more 164 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: of the movement now with civilians hitting the streets. There 165 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: was that period where they didn't for very obvious again reasons. 166 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 2: What needs to happen. 167 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: What can the US do to give the Uranian people 168 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: the best chance at regime change? Or is it impossible? 169 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 1: From a willingness perspective? Do you need boots on the ground, 170 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: How does it actually happen? 171 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 4: So, look, I think we've reset to an end state 172 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 4: that isn't regime change. It's change in how the regime 173 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 4: can treat its Arab neighbors, Israel, United States, even its 174 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 4: own people. Remove its tools of repression, it's tools of 175 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 4: terrorism as tools of harassment. That's why you know I 176 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 4: said suppression air defense in the IERGC and now the 177 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 4: other ones. We have destroyed a lot of their ballistic missiles, 178 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 4: but not just their missiles this time. You know, the 179 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 4: president called a halt of this in the Twelve Day 180 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 4: war before the Israel has got to it. We have 181 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 4: now collectively destroyed their ballistic missile production capability. 182 00:08:58,440 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 2: That's the key. 183 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 4: Yeah, means that is if we can prevent anyone from 184 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 4: helping them, they're five or six years away. Again, we've 185 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 4: moved them way down the path. We've destroyed their drone 186 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 4: production capability. There they get it back faster two or 187 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 4: three years. But we've destroyed their naval shipbuilding. So that's 188 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 4: a seven year problem for them. And uh, and we've 189 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 4: uh and we're working on their nuclear program. And again 190 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 4: I think the nuclear program, it's there's TBD. 191 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,319 Speaker 3: On that a little bit like the IRGC, but. 192 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 4: That could be moved back three five seven years. So 193 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 4: if you move all these instruments back three five seven years, 194 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 4: you really weaken. That's our contribution that Israel's working over 195 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 4: the leadership trying to get, you know, trying to create 196 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 4: a sense of the. 197 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 3: IRGC is not in control. 198 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 4: Maybe that a lot causes the Arteeste, which is the 199 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 4: traditional Iranian army, not the IRGC, to rise up there. 200 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 3: I mean, they have the one thing no one else 201 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 3: has weapons. 202 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 4: Right, you know they could, you know, but this this 203 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 4: is aspirational by Israel at this point. Clearly it was 204 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 4: not pre programmed in and so regime change was not 205 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 4: a good strategic If that was your strategic against state, 206 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 4: you did not have the right land. But if your 207 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 4: stiggins state was what I said, affect what the regime 208 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 4: can do, then you do have the right plan. 209 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: Looking at the reaction of the allies and President Trump 210 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: clearly very very disappointed with particularly Europe, with Japan, with Australia, 211 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,719 Speaker 1: with the UK, I mean he is not held back 212 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: when it comes to kiss drama a Were you surprised 213 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: at their lack of willingness to come in and be 214 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 1: What does that say to those who really wish us harm? 215 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: And when I say that, I refer the Chinese Communist 216 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,839 Speaker 1: Party bigger than anyone, what do they think when they 217 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,319 Speaker 1: look at the unwillingness, because I've made the point that 218 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: it looks reflects badly on them with Venezuela, with Iran, 219 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Jijinping hasn't flown into help. 220 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:54,679 Speaker 2: Our allies haven't really either. 221 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 4: I do think it's funny that he asked that Trump 222 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 4: asked China. I mean, China hasn't shot up to help 223 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 4: on anything that wasn't about China's core national interest ever 224 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 4: since nineteen forty. Now, I hope I think he did 225 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 4: that kind of humor human yeah, so, but look, look, 226 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 4: if I were to take a just a short term, look, 227 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 4: you know, short term view of what's happened here, I 228 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 4: would say to the president, well, you show what you reap. 229 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 4: Right if you treat your allies of partners poorly for 230 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,840 Speaker 4: fourteen months and then turn around and say I need 231 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 4: some help right now, don't be surprised when you know 232 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 4: there's a little hitch in their giddy up to come 233 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 4: help you. But long term, these are countries, the countries 234 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 4: we're talking about here, Japan, Korea, Australia, UK, France, Germany. 235 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 4: These are countries committed to the principle of freedom and 236 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 4: navigation and the right of nations to transit the Straits 237 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:57,680 Speaker 4: of Hormis, which which Iran routinely and now temporally is 238 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 4: attempting to block. 239 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 3: They should before this. 240 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 4: And look when you look at a country like Australia 241 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 4: for one hundred since nineteen oh eight, when we first 242 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 4: had the Great White Fleet, go there. 243 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 3: We have been the closest of allies, and I you know, 244 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 3: we have everyone. 245 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 4: I mean, most Americans have no idea that Australians are 246 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 4: sitting with us in the jungles of Vietnam. They were 247 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 4: with us in Korea, They've been with us in the 248 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 4: Arab in a rocket Afghanistan. They are Australian forces, are 249 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 4: our closest allies in the Australian military. They won't like 250 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 4: this part is a little bit of a mini me 251 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 4: in the sense of it's a lot of US equipment. 252 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 4: Even if it was foolishly built by Spanish shipbuilders, it's 253 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:35,839 Speaker 4: still US technology. 254 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:37,679 Speaker 3: That's a whole separate issue. 255 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 4: But that's thirty fives growlers, E eighteen's, the helicopters, the 256 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 4: lift everything. 257 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 3: We are partners. 258 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 4: There's no I would not trust any country more than 259 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 4: I would trust an Australian on my flank, either in air, 260 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 4: maritime or naval or ground combat. That's just a true statement. 261 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 4: And every senior mil US motoriy officer knows that. So 262 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 4: we want them there. I wish we treated them better. 263 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 4: ARCAS has somehow stayed on track. I think I think 264 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 4: if the Prime Minister could you know, not take the 265 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 4: foolish short term win and take the long term. 266 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 3: Good of the US. 267 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 4: Not just US Australia, but US Australia as we're perceived. 268 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 3: By the Chinese Communist Party. 269 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 4: If he wants to have that win, he needs to 270 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 4: put aside the hurt and I agree Trump has not 271 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:37,439 Speaker 4: handled as well. Set that aside, and send a destroyer 272 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 4: to participate in this off. 273 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: I just think, even from it, even if you want 274 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: to take out you know, doing what is right, or 275 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: put your value, you know, whatever else aside, where you 276 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: say I don't want to make a decision because he's 277 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,199 Speaker 1: not treated us in the way we deserve. 278 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 2: Blah blah blah blah blah, I get all that. 279 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 1: But just from a very basic survival instinct, we have 280 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: twenty days feel in this country, if China decided to 281 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: take Taiwan, we are completely screwed. We cannot defend ourselves. 282 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: We have not invested enough in our in our defense. 283 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 1: Just from a pure perspective of yes, you've been a dick, 284 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: but we're going to need you at some stage, I 285 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: would have sent I just don't think we're in a 286 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,320 Speaker 1: position where we can afford to take personally, even if 287 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,439 Speaker 1: we've found behavior from Trump to be offensive. 288 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 4: I agree, you agree with your sentiment, but I will 289 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 4: tell you, yeah, the uh, I'm here in Eastern Europe 290 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 4: right now, and a lot of he has lost a 291 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 4: lot of Europe. I mean, he hasn't lost the desperate countries, 292 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 4: the Baltics. You know, here's when Trump hasn't lost the Baltics, 293 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 4: in Poland, Taiwan. 294 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 3: You know, the countries who have no one else they're 295 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 3: they're like. 296 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 4: But I'll tell you when I say about Astralia, I 297 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 4: mean the President called his national scourty actually called Israel 298 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 4: a model ally. 299 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 3: You know, I think that they and they are. 300 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 4: By the way, Ukraine's a model ally, and they demonstrated 301 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 4: by offering you know, people and equipment in a very 302 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 4: stressful environment that they're in right now under Russian attacks 303 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 4: that dwarf every week. They get everything that happened over 304 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 4: the last two weeks, every week, for fifty two weeks 305 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 4: a year, for four years they offered. 306 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 3: Australia is a model ally. Australia and the. 307 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 4: United States have done so much together that I hope 308 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 4: that petty politics doesn't cause anyone to take short termers 309 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 4: and include Trump in this take some kind of short 310 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 4: term win and long term jeopardize what's been a terrific political, 311 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 4: military relationship and economic relationship over one hundred and ten years. 312 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: Oh, I agree, particularly about Ukraine as well as someone 313 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: who is banned in Russia by Putin for my commentary 314 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: on that issue. 315 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 2: I take that as a badge of honor. Absolutely, I 316 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 2: think they have. 317 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: Been Finally, what happens from now? The US keeps going hard? 318 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: What is their left to achieve? If they're objective is 319 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: as you said earlier, to get rid of the capability 320 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 1: to produce something in the immediate short term future. 321 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 2: Is that done? 322 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 4: Now? 323 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 2: When does the US stop? 324 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: And I'm assuming Israel keeps going HESBLA, they're not going 325 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: to accept to remain in existence and they've got other objectives. 326 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 3: That's good. 327 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 4: Well, I think Israel's got a different timeline. But in Iran, 328 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 4: I think we have a shared timeline of probably four 329 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 4: and a half weeks from problems start in terms of 330 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 4: a heavy air campaign, So sometime around April first you 331 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 4: end the heavy air campaign, but look to achieve that 332 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 4: first objective where Iran loses his ability to pressure its 333 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 4: Arab neighbors in Israel in the US. We also have 334 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 4: to ensure that we control flow through the straits or 335 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 4: her moves. And to do that, we're going to very 336 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 4: specifically have to continue to knock down their missile, drone, 337 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 4: unmanned kamikaze, you know, sea drones, and mines, and we're 338 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 4: working all those down and at some point you get 339 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 4: them down low enough, not to zero, but all of 340 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 4: them are low enough that a commodore and an admiral 341 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 4: can say this is a manageable military risk. And then 342 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 4: you bring in you know, you have your persistent overhead 343 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 4: staring eye looking really focused on that area now not 344 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 4: just all of a run, but that area. And you 345 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 4: have airborne cap which are you know, four four by 346 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 4: two aircraft like eight F eighteens eight a total of 347 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 4: F eighteens, F sixteens, fifteens that. 348 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 3: Are together they can shoot down the drones. 349 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 4: They have this our new Advanced Precistion kN a weapon 350 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 4: system which is a counter drone weapon. 351 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 3: Only twenty five thousand dollars to shoot down drone. Very 352 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 3: good thing. 353 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,679 Speaker 4: But I also have other weapons, Like you pop your 354 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 4: head up somewhere ashore, we put a weapon on you. 355 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 4: Then you have and final two things you have armed 356 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,959 Speaker 4: helos to take care of those small attack craft, and 357 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 4: you have those ages destroyers, air defense destroyers, ten to 358 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 4: fourteen of them, initially all American, I'm afraid to say 359 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 4: at this point. And then they do the bulk of 360 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 4: that escorting, of convoy, escorting of ships through. If you 361 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 4: if you do those two lines of effort, diminish the enemy, 362 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 4: build up the proper capacity of your own. 363 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 3: I think we can take I know we can take 364 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:00,360 Speaker 3: control of the rights. 365 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 4: I've done this before is in convoy operations as a 366 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 4: junior officer. It is doable. And then then we turn 367 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 4: to our partners. Everybody say, this is who iron is. 368 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 4: A country that can't control the straits, a country that 369 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 4: has no missiles, no drones, no nuclear program, a weekend 370 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 4: diar GC, no naval program. 371 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 3: This is who they are. 372 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,719 Speaker 4: Let's build a better Middle East together in this three 373 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 4: five seven years while they're on their backside. 374 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: Brilliant, Well put, Mark, thank you so so much for 375 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: again your service, your expertise. 376 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 2: And for joining us here on the Aaron Mullin Show. 377 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 4: We're very grateful, thank you for having me here.