WEBVTT - A Special Briefing on Looming War With Iran 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.280 Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to 0:00:06.280 --> 0:00:08.800 take advantage of the many free online courses there, and 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:11.119 of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of 0:00:11.119 --> 0:00:14.560 them at Q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple, 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:18.880 iTunes and Hillsdale Morning Laura and Evening Grace America. I'm 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:22.560 Hugh Hewittt. Special emergency pod this week is war Looms 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:25.439 with Iran. It's an edition of the Big Weekend Pod, 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:31.520 which will be available over whoever podcasts are saleing podcast Network, iTunes, Spotify. 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:34.479 But this is the emergency podcast to get you up 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:37.040 to speed if you've been on vacation or just sleepwalking 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:40.000 to the last three weeks. President Trump came on my 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:45.360 program on January eighth and talk some tough talk about Iran. 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:48.480 He followed up that night with a conversation with Sean 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:51.199 Andy in which he doubled down on it, then a 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:54.720 couple of days later with Tony Decopple and on CBS, 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:57.240 and then a few more times both at True Social 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:00.560 on X and Drop Buys with report on the Way 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:03.280 In and Out. From that time forward, I've been devoting 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:05.720 a lot of my program to thinking about exactly what 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:09.000 would that mean, what would it look like? And I 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:11.640 found the very best experts I can. I can't put 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:15.319 all fifteen experts together onto one podcast. It's going to 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:17.880 be a pretty long podcast as it is. But I 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:21.080 got for you the part from my interview with President 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:24.039 Trump about Iran, and then we have lined up have 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.800 you ready gore all the way through Kareem Sadjupur, who 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:30.920 was on Friday of this week. If you want to 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.560 be ready for whatever is coming, might be nothing and 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:36.480 it might be something very big, I suggest you listened 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:41.319 to this very special edition of highly concentrated Hugh. Good Morning, 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:44.000 Glory and Amy, Grace America. I'm Hugh Hewett, proud to 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:47.360 welcome back to the UUs Show President Donald Trump. Happy 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:49.280 New Year, mister Trump. Good to have you back. 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:52.040 Well, thank you very much. You thank you very much. 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:53.400 I don't want to waste your time, so I'm going 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:56.680 to dive right in and begin with Iran. Michael Durant 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.720 at the Hudson Institute says, the regime there is failing. 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:06.000 They have fuel shortages, electricity shortages, water shortage. Kareem Sajiport. 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:10.440 Carnegie is posting the videos of the spreading protests. Mark Dubovitz, 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:13.160 So this is a quote. If President Trump brings down 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:16.079 the Islamic Republic of Iran, he will cement his place 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:19.120 as the greatest foreign policy president since Ronald Reagan. I 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:19.519 think it would. 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:20.960 Actually I already did that. 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:23.520 I thought I just about that with Midnight Hammer. You 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:25.120 did that? How much well can I do? 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:25.360 You know? 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:29.560 We just had Venezuela, which has had Midnight Hammer. We 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:31.519 settled eight wars, eight. 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:32.000 In the quarter. 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:35.280 But I'm willing to accept that. I'm willing to accept it. 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:39.320 What about Iran? Is the aim with Iran the collapse 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:41.919 of that awful forty seven year tyranny. 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:43.959 Well, I don't want to say it, but I will 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:46.560 tell you they're not doing well, as you know, probably 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:49.520 better than anybody. They're doing very poorly. And I have 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.680 let them know that if they start killing people, which 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:54.959 they tend to do during their riots they have lots 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:57.680 of riots, if they do it, we're going to hit 0:02:57.720 --> 0:02:58.480 them very hard. 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.120 Now dozens have been killed. I know you don't do 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.440 red lines, but if you communicated to them what that 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:06.880 limit of your patience. 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:10.919 Is, well, some have been killed by problems of crowd 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.840 control and other things. We're watching it very closely. The 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:18.040 crowds are so large. There's been a stampede. There's been 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:21.080 three stampedes, and people have been killed in that. And 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:24.919 I'm not sure I can necessarily hold somebody responsible for that. 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:28.560 But they know, and they've been told very strongly, even 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:30.640 more strongly than I'm speaking to you right now, that 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:32.959 if they do that, they're going to have to pay. 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:33.200 Hell. 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:35.560 Do you have a message for the people of Iran, 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:36.440 President Trump? 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:39.640 All I can say is you should. You should feel 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:43.720 strongly about freedom. There's nothing like freedom. Your brave people. 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.360 It's a shame what's happened to your country. Your country 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:49.640 was a great country. I remember years ago when I 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:53.280 was a young real estate developer. Friends of mine went 0:03:53.320 --> 0:03:56.320 to Iran and they did great. They built buildings in Iran. 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:59.800 They're still up barely by the way, but there's still 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:03.880 I see pictures of the apartment houses. And they did 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:07.440 very well in Iran. I ran, they passed away. They 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:10.760 were very successful developers. They were great people, mostly New 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.560 York developments, but they went to Iran and they built 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:17.200 some pretty good jobs in Iran. And I remember they 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.119 were saying that people are great. The whole place was great. 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:24.560 It was a tremendous market. And now you look at it, 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:26.000 Look what's happened. 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:30.359 I sat in the office of former President Nixon with 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:33.040 Great Price on a couch with our end, watching the 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:35.600 fall of the shot, and he just kept shaking his hat. 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:38.679 He couldn't believe Jimmy Carter was letting it happen. Would 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:42.400 you meet with Crown Prince pob Lobby Poblai, who is 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:46.360 the heir to the constitutional monarchy. He doesn't want to rule. 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:50.880 He would be a symbolic ruler like King Charles Well. 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:54.480 I've watched him and he just seems like a nice person. 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:56.640 But I'm not sure that it would be appropriate at 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.200 this point to do that. As president. I think that 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:03.760 we should let everybody go out there and we see 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:07.120 who emerges. I'm not sure necessarily that I it would 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:08.280 be an appropriate thing to do. 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:10.760 All right, let me switch to China. Mister President, last 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:12.840 time we talked, and now he's ask you this. I 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:15.479 asked you about Jimmy Lai, who is dying in real time. 0:05:15.560 --> 0:05:18.680 He's been convicted. Have you talked to Jijenping? I know 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:19.159 you get. 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.200 Along with it. I have, I have. I talked to 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:23.400 him and I mentioned Jimmy Lee. I don't know Jimmy Lai. 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:27.720 I know of Jimmy Lai, and he was an activist, 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:30.440 to put it mildly, but a positive activist. But if 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:33.239 you're a Presidency, he wasn't a positive activist. I spoke 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:38.599 to Presidency when I was in South Korea and we 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:41.400 had a great talk about it, and I left it 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.040 with him. He didn't give me an answer one way 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.320 or the other. But obviously so far it hasn't been 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.200 I got a lot of other answers that turned out positive. 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:50.680 I haven't heard back on that one. 0:05:50.800 --> 0:05:53.440 If Jimmy Lai was free, would you consider that to 0:05:53.480 --> 0:05:57.120 be a very significant gesture by China? I would. 0:05:57.160 --> 0:05:58.680 I think it would be a great thing. I think 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:04.560 I told President's that he's an old man who's very sick. 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:06.479 I met his son, who is a very nice young 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:09.880 man who loves his father a lot. His son is 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:13.720 the primary person that's working very hard to get him out, 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:15.600 and I felt I owed it to the son. I 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:17.320 like the son. I mean, look, I don't know him, 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:19.760 but I met him fairly briefly, but I love that 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:21.760 he was fighting hard for his father. I thought that 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:25.280 was I like to see sons that fight hard for fathers, 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:27.920 and he was certainly doing that. And I mentioned that 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:31.279 during my meeting early on in my meeting as a 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:33.360 list of things that I'd like to talk about, but 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:35.120 we have not heard back on that one. 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:38.240 All right, let me turn to Cuba, mister president. For 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:42.240 sixty seven years, that police state dictatorship has sucked the 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:45.480 lifeblood out of the people of that island. Is it 0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:48.560 time to increase the pressure there, maybe even quarantine it 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:49.960 as you have Venezuela. 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:52.240 Well, I don't think you can have much more pressure 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:54.800 other than going in and blasting the hell out of 0:06:54.839 --> 0:06:59.440 the place. Look, they are their whole life blood, their 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:02.160 whole life was Venezuela. They got their oil, they got 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:05.160 their money from Venezuela. And as you know, when our 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:07.760 great soldiers went and we had nobody killed, they lost 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:13.160 many Cuban fighters during that battle. Many amazing job that 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:16.880 the American soldiers did, led by a man who happens 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:20.920 to be sitting right next to me, General Caine. Ah 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.000 a job, what a job he did. And Pete Hegseth did, 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:26.600 and the whole group. What a job they all did. 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:30.880 It's amazing. Actually, John Ratcliffe is walking in, Marco Rubio 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:34.160 is walking in. We have a whole group of people here. 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:37.200 They're all fans of yours. They're not walking in to 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:40.040 listen to this call. They just happened to be walking 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:41.080 in for the next meeting. 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:43.760 I got a little advice for you, mister President. Don't 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:46.920 play golf and give strokes to Director Ratcliffe. Don't do that. 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:48.160 Don't get many strokes. 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:51.280 He's a good golfer and he's a very good guy too. 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:55.960 Back to Cuba, Miguel Diez Canal. Do you think he 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:59.280 could fall like Hamini and Iran might fall? 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.720 Yeah? I think. I look, I think that Cuba is 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:06.440 hanging by a thread. Cuba's in big trouble. Look, Cuba 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.680 got all of its money for protecting. They were like 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:13.320 a protector. They're tough, strong people, they're great people. Marco 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.280 has a little Cuban blood in him. I think Marco's 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:18.280 not doing a bad job, right, What do you think? 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:22.080 Can I ask you one question? How is Marco Rubio doing? 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.440 Is the equal of any secretary of state in my lifetime? 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:27.520 And I'm glad he's not taking the Dolphins job. He 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:29.720 should work for the Browns if he leaves your administration, 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:31.880 that's right, all right, Yeah. 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:35.160 He goes will be successful. But no, I think that 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:38.560 I think that Cuba is really in a lot of trouble. 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:40.760 But you know, people have been saying that for many years. 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.320 In all fairness about Cuban. Cuba has been in trouble 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:46.120 for the last forty five years, and you know, they 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:48.800 haven't quite gone down, but I think they're pretty close 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:49.959 of their own volition. 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:53.640 I want to try and define the Trump doctrine, mister President. 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:55.800 I've been trying to do it on the air. It's 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:59.280 down to that, don't kill or threaten Americans or our 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:02.840 property or American security in general, or we will hit 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:04.000 you very very hard. 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:07.000 Is that the same and included in theirs don't send 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:09.280 drugs and don't send things that are going to kill 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:12.160 our people. But you can you can sort of make 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:15.440 the savement that you've indirectly said that, but it's a 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:18.640 pretty direct statement, don't send drugs into our country. 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:22.000 It's a great doctrine. Now the next question. I'm a 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:24.880 Salem host of Fox Contributors, so this is a bit unusual. 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:28.680 Brett Bair does the best interviews with you. I'm exempting 0:09:28.720 --> 0:09:31.240 myself from consideration, but I think you got to give 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:34.199 Tony Dokapol a chance over at CBS to see if 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:35.640 they've really changed their ways. 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:39.240 Is that on the agenda, Well, it hasn't been on 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.480 the agenda, but if you recommend it, I would do it. 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:42.120 I have a lot of. 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.880 Respect for you, as you know, and I think you're 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:46.800 doing a great job, and you've done a great job. 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:48.559 You went a little bit liberal on us for a 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:53.520 while when you were at nbcby I can't believe. I 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:56.640 couldn't believe you sitting on NBC trying to answer questions 0:09:56.640 --> 0:09:59.680 that you didn't believe in. You only gave them partial answers. 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:02.560 You would never fully there, but you couldn't get out 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:04.840 fast enough. It was very fun to watch. 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:06.880 I'm happy with I. 0:10:06.880 --> 0:10:09.040 Hear good things about Tony, and I can tell you 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:14.959 that David Ellison is a fantastic guy and his father, 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.280 Larry is one of the great been good friends of mine, 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:20.160 both of them, but David's doing a fantastic job, and 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:22.520 they feel very strongly about Tony. 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:24.920 Yeah, I don't want Barry Weiss and Tony to overtake 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:27.120 Fox and Salem. But I would like you to give 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:28.760 him a shot to see if he's got the shop. 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:30.439 Well, it'll be important to you, I do it. No, 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:32.280 are you good things about Tony now? 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:34.640 You gave two hours of The New York Times yesterday. 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:38.040 I appreciate you. The most successful president to the media 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.920 in history, actually, but I would like to see you 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:44.680 sit down with Matt Contenetty, Guy Benson, Spencer Brown, Mary 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:48.240 Catherine Ham, the Mandels, Philip Wegaman. All of our superstar 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:51.480 youngster people are under forty forty five. Is that on 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.320 the agenda sometimes to sit down with art it would 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:54.679 be I. 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:56.400 Mean, they have to ask, and it would be I 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.160 certainly like all the names that you mentioned, And I 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:01.439 will say that I think the Times treated me pretty 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:02.440 fairly yesterday. 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:05.720 Well interesting, I haven't read it yet, the transcriptors and outs. 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:07.680 I'm waiting for the shock and it's a little hard 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:11.439 not to. We have the greatest potential economy in history. 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.320 We have eighteen trillion dollars coming in the record is 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:17.480 three and that was from many, many years ago. We 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:22.120 have something that just took place with Venezuela that everybody 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:25.199 considered as one of the most brilliant attacks they've ever seen. 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:27.720 And you know we had we lost no people in 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.160 the middle of a fort. Don't forget that house was 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:32.840 built in the middle of a fort with thousands of soldiers. 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:35.160 They lost quite a few people. I hate to say that. 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:38.840 I talked to an active duty naval officer yesterday who's 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.000 very jealous that they were not there because it was 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:42.360 such an extraordinary mission. 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:46.880 You know what, we had an extraordinary attack a few 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:49.240 months ago in a place called Iran. We knocked out 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:53.760 the Iran nuclear threat and it was obliterated. And we 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:57.360 also took out Solomoni and we took out Al Bagdaddy. 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.320 So we've had some good attacks so far. We haven't 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:05.040 had the Afghanistan disaster. That was the lowest point I 0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:07.800 think in the history of our country, Biden. But if 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.920 you look also the Jimmy Carter disaster, that was a 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:14.040 disaster with the hostages. And you know, when we were. 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:15.720 Very democratic president, a. 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:18.160 Disaster two planes. I said, I hope it's not a 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:19.160 Jimmy Carter deal. 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:24.600 Carter, Clinton, Obama, Biden. They've all been disasters in national security. 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:25.760 Let me ask you about it. 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:28.400 I haven't had I haven't had any disaster. 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:29.720 Yet, and I hope it stays that way. 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.120 I hope the word yet is going to disappear. 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:34.160 Yeah, well, we got to talk about the Golden Fleet 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:36.520 because this is important. I want to take my hat 0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:38.880 off to you on the Golden Fleet. We need guided 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.160 missile frigates and attack submarines and the Columbia class. And 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:44.840 the worst way is there going to be enough money 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:47.640 in the budget to get everything built that we need, 0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:49.040 including new shipyards. 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.360 Well, we are going to have plenty of money. And 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:53.840 if you notice what I did yesterday, I told all 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.480 defence companies there's going to be no more buybacks. You're 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.640 going to put the money into building new plant and equipment, 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:03.080 and going to be no more stock options, and there's 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:05.640 going to be no more salaries of fifty million dollars 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:07.480 a year. You're gonna put the money in. We're going 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:10.240 to have a capped at five million dollars and that's 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:14.240 effective immediately, and all that money that they're sending out 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:15.679 is going to have to be and you know what, 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:20.280 the stock prices went up. The reason is I also 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.960 put out a statement, a secondary statement saying that next 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.240 year we expect to have one point five trillion in 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:30.160 defense budget. And we're also building battleships. You know, we're 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:33.760 building great battleships. They have twenty five on schedule, but 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:37.200 we're going to start with ten and then we'll see 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:39.440 how that all goes. But we're going to build battleships. 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:42.120 And you know, I thought you remember from Victory at sea. 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:46.280 You take a look at those great, gorgeous ships, the Iowa, 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:50.880 the Alabama, the Missouri, those great ships and if you 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:51.840 see you know what I'm talking. 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.240 Oh yeah, provided they've got lots of missile tubes on it. 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:56.280 I'm all for them. The more missile tubes that see, 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:56.760 the better. 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:58.760 I said, why don't we take some of them out 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:02.640 of bath balls. The new ships will be one hundred 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:06.840 times more powerful than those battleships that we so admired. 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:11.400 Now I know you're up up upping the construction Philadelphia 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:13.800 Shipyard and enhancing capacity. 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:14.439 And numerous others. 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:16.199 Yeah, I was wondering, are you gonna build a new. 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:17.800 Walk into the shipbuilding business? 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.120 That is that's the best news. Do people understand how 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:22.600 important that is to the economy. 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:24.760 I think they know. But the Philadelphia Yard is one 0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:26.600 of the yards that's going to be opened up. But 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.080 we have numerous yards that are opened up. Some of 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.840 those yards have been built up by housing projects. You know, 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:34.040 they're all in the water, so they tended to be 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:37.600 in nice locations. But we have many yards opening up, 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.480 and we're going to be very much back in the 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:44.160 shipbuilding business. And in some cases we're partnering with South 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.120 Korea and others initially because we have to get you know, 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.800 we used to make almost a ship a day during 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.600 World War Two and then we just totally got out 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.960 of that business stupidly. But we're back in the shipbuilding business. 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:57.440 We have to be all right now. I want to 0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.640 switch to one of my other favorite topics with the 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:03.440 image at the Supreme Court. I know you don't expect 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:06.280 a retirement in the spring, but if one happens, you've 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:10.320 appointed sixty Appeals Court judges. Would you expect to take 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.480 either a runner up from last time? I Judge Ktlidge 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.320 or one of your appointees. Judge Row is fifty three 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:19.360 on the DC Circuit. Judge Rushing on the fourth is 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:23.200 forty three. Judge Strass on the eighth is fifty one. 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.960 A MultiPar is fifty six. Don Willets sixty. Then you 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:29.280 got Senator Cruz is fifty five, and you got District 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.360 Court Judge Eileen Cannon. I think she did a good 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:33.720 job in the Florida case. She's forty five. 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:36.200 Ye, she did a great job. She's a great judge. 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.560 Yes, she did, and she came to the right constitutional 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:40.600 conclusion about the illegality of the appointment. 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:44.320 Highly respected. Yeah, So those are all great names. Every 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:46.720 one of those names is a great name. Now, Ted Cruz. 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:49.200 The nice one about him is, we get a one 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:53.680 hundred percent approval. Every Democrat would vote yes, and every 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.160 Republican would vote yes because they would love to get 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:58.000 him the hell out of the Senate, all of them, 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:01.480 so that he's the only one that would be guaranteed confirmation. 0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:03.960 And he's a smart guy. He's a good guy. And 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:06.760 I say that jokingly, but I always say Ted would 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:10.200 get a one hundred percent approval. The Democrats want him out, 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:13.160 the Republicans want him out, and he'd do great and 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.320 he's smart. But all of the names that you mentioned 0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:18.160 are great names, every one of them. 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:21.280 I know who is advising you on judges this term, 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:24.040 as Leonard is not and the Federal society is. 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:28.840 Not well I'm using some people actually that you know, 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.480 i'd rather tell you on a personal prisis, not on 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:33.640 a phone call. But I have some very good people 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:36.160 that are advising me, people that you know in respect. 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:38.800 I have the legislative agenda for this year. I know 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:41.200 I watched your talk to the Republicans at the Trump 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:44.120 County Center, and I know you talked about healthcare. That 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:46.040 would be great, but it would be easier to get 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.600 done if you have bundled it with, for example, the 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:52.560 Dreamers Act, the AM Radio in Every Car Act. Both 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:55.600 of those have got super majority. Do you think that's 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:58.960 the strategy, bundle healthcare with very popular laws, get them 0:16:58.960 --> 0:16:59.960 to the floor and move them. 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:03.080 Well, I think healthcare is so big and so important 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:07.240 that it probably supersedes some slightly less you know, a 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.919 very popular thing, but less important. I like the AM 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.320 in every car, the AM radio in every car. I 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.879 like that. I'm in favor of it. It's interesting. A 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:18.919 lot of people don't know about that, but it's actually 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:20.080 a very big subject. 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:21.120 So it's a huge deal. 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.600 It's a huge we're going to be doing something on that. 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:26.199 All of the things you mentioned I like, but I 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:29.159 think healthcare is so big and so powerful, it's going 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.600 to really going to have to stand in his own way, 0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:34.480 all right. So I want, you know, with healthcare, it's 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:37.320 pretty simple. I want because if you take a look, 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:39.440 I don't know if you study insurance companies, but these 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:43.399 guys have made literally trillions of dollars. I want the 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:46.240 money to go directly to the people and let the 0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:49.800 people buy their own healthcare, and everybody loves it. 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:52.760 I do too. I think that would be a genius. 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:54.879 I just think to get Democratic vote you might have 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:57.280 to put the Dreamers Act in or the Radio Act. 0:17:57.119 --> 0:17:59.800 In along with the Democrats is they're totally in bed 0:17:59.840 --> 0:18:04.720 with the insurance companies. And what you know, what I'm 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:07.240 doing is the exact opposite. I'm giving the money to 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:09.560 the people. They've given the money to the insurance companies. 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.560 It's hard for them to vote against the insurance companies 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:15.880 who have made a fortune because of the Democrats. 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:18.359 Now, Miss President, when we have that sit down that 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.720 probably talk about judges, I would like to talk to 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:23.480 you about Richard Nixon, because I believe your understanding of 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:27.720 American power projection is very similar to his, and I 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.560 think he also liked to keep people guessing. Some people 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:32.320 call it the Madman theory. I just thought it was 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.840 a strategic sense. Do you think that comparison is apt? 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:41.200 Well, look, I don't know. We're just respected. We're respected 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:44.600 again as a country, and I'm respected, but we're respected. 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:47.600 We had a president who shouldn't have been there. First 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:49.600 of all, it was a rigged election, and that's now 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:52.280 coming out loud and clear. But we knew that. I 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:55.280 knew that four years ago. But it was just a rigged, 0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:57.400 horrible election. That's where we go. We got a man 0:18:57.480 --> 0:19:01.639 that allowed millions of people our country from jails and 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:05.560 mental institutions and drug dealers, and what a shame that 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:08.800 what Biden was just a horrible president. And you know, 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:11.280 if she would have won, which is the equivalent, if 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:13.880 she would have won, our country would have been right 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:16.480 now Venezuela on steria disaster. 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.080 A disaster, and Tim Wills would have been the vice 0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:21.199 president instead of vice president of Vance. I can't believe it. 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:24.240 Let me turn to politics. In my last couple of minutes, 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.160 mister president, I want to honor your time. You crush 0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:30.280 the debates in twenty fifteen sixteen. The last one was 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:34.080 just Secretary Rubio Senator Cruizer, We've talked about Governor kh 0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:36.280 and U, and then there were no more. You skip 0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:39.679 the debates in twenty five, twenty three, twenty four. You 0:19:39.760 --> 0:19:42.960 will control, You will whether or not the GOP has 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:46.359 debates in twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty eight. Do you 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:48.320 think they are a good thing for the party or 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:50.000 a bad thing? Do you want to have them or 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:51.040 do you not want to have them? 0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:53.440 Well, I always liked them. For me, I love debating. 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:55.640 But I think I did the right thing. I had, 0:19:56.440 --> 0:19:58.840 you know, ten people. They're all smart people, they're you know, 0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:02.160 governors and senators, and I figured, why should I allow 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:05.399 myself to be whacked by all ten people? At the 0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:06.960 same time, I think I did a very fun A 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:08.679 lot of people said you have to be in the debates. 0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:11.280 I said, I don't think I do. And then I 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:13.199 had the debate with Biden, which turned out to be 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:15.119 a good debate. I don't think I got enough credit 0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:17.359 for that debate because I made him choke, but he 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:20.879 didn't do well in that debate. And the interesting thing is, 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:23.919 without that debate, would he have been allowed to continue running. 0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:26.199 Uh, Yes, he would have been, and that would have 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:29.200 been a disaster. For the party, even worse than Kamala Harris, 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:32.199 because you can't hide the fact he was infirm. He 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:35.080 was infirm, he wasn't there well. 0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:36.640 He didn't do too well, I would say that. 0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:38.840 So let's talk about the Democrats. 0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:40.840 To wrap out is not the greatest go ahead. 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:44.800 Who is the strongest Democrat in twenty twenty eight? Gavin Newsom, AOC, 0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:49.680 Jasmine Crockett, Jared Poulos in Colorado, Chris van Holland, Wes Moore, 0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:52.320 Andy Basheer. Who's their best choice? 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:54.960 You know, as you rattle off those names, I'm just 0:20:54.960 --> 0:20:57.560 seeing in't and amazing. With three hundred and fifty people, 0:20:57.560 --> 0:21:00.119 of course, we have no idea that Biden let and 0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:03.800 so many nobody knows. But with let's say three hundred 0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:06.959 and fifty million people, that that's the best they can do, 0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:10.160 it's pretty sad. I think Newsom's hurt because he's done 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:14.760 so badly in California. He has, he's done so so badly. 0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:19.080 I just you know, look, he's a sort of a 0:21:19.119 --> 0:21:21.639 good politician, but he doesn't get the job done. I 0:21:21.640 --> 0:21:24.120 think people are gonna people aren't going to stand for that. 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:28.040 There's nobody. I do have a couple of people that 0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:30.840 I think would be really tough candidates, but I don't 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:32.760 want to name him because not chosen. 0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:36.160 Well, that does make some sense to me. Okay, let's 0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:38.720 close with mister mayor, Mom Donnie, and you decide when 0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:41.600 to conclude the interview. Mister President, I know you love 0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:43.920 New York City. It's going to be a nightmare. I've 0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:46.639 only lived there once. I've only lived there in nineteen eighty. 0:21:46.960 --> 0:21:49.040 It's going to be worse than nineteen eighty, which was 0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:50.960 damn bad and I left and went to law school 0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:53.360 because it was so bad. Will the city be able 0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:54.160 to recover after? 0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:57.399 Mom, Donnie, Well, it's going to be interesting. You know. 0:21:57.440 --> 0:21:59.679 I've met him and came to the Oval office. Yes, 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:02.359 we've had some nice conversations. Are very good. And then 0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:04.879 he hit me a little bit on the tremendous victory 0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:09.160 and you would say it was a tremendous victory on Venezuela, 0:22:09.280 --> 0:22:10.719 and I said, gee, I thought he would have at 0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:12.800 least waited a month. I was surprised that he hit 0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:14.359 me on that, but he did. You know, So, what 0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:16.479 are you going to do? Kid? I expected it. I 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.119 just thought it would be maybe three or four weeks 0:22:19.119 --> 0:22:21.879 instead of immediately, because I do get along with him. 0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:24.480 He's got a great personality, is a nice guy. His 0:22:24.640 --> 0:22:27.280 policies are not good, but maybe he changes. You know, 0:22:27.320 --> 0:22:29.560 That's what I would view because I want to do 0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:32.560 everything I can to help New York. So I don't know. 0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:36.040 I hope you're wrong. I hope New York is thrive, 0:22:36.160 --> 0:22:39.439 will thrive. But typically those policies, maybe you say not 0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:42.720 only typically in history, those policies have never worked. 0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:44.800 They did never work. The last thing I'll say to you, 0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:48.280 miss President, Golden Dome is the most important legacy you're 0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:50.840 going to leave if it gets built. I've read some 0:22:50.880 --> 0:22:54.240 studies that say Ravenna, Ohio is where the hubb out 0:22:54.280 --> 0:22:56.520 it be for space Force to control that because of 0:22:56.520 --> 0:22:59.760 the polar ice cap. Have you decided where the central 0:22:59.760 --> 0:23:01.560 lopecation of Golden Dome will be yet? 0:23:01.880 --> 0:23:03.760 But I love Ohio, I can tell you that. And 0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:07.480 I've worn Ohio big everything every time, and everybody I've 0:23:07.560 --> 0:23:10.480 endorsed from Ohio is one and you know, it's been great. 0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:13.280 But I've heard that's one of the one of the 0:23:13.280 --> 0:23:14.960 places very much being considered. 0:23:15.000 --> 0:23:17.080 All right, mister President, thank you for the time. I 0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:19.440 appreciate it. Come back again soon and I look forward 0:23:19.480 --> 0:23:21.880 to talking to you again. Congratulations on a great first 0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:23.119 year in your second term. 0:23:23.359 --> 0:23:26.560 Thank you very much. You take care of yourself. Thank bye. 0:23:27.640 --> 0:23:30.320 Morning Glory and Evan Grayson Mac. I'm who ewit in 0:23:30.400 --> 0:23:34.439 the Relief Actor Studio West. Earlier today, President Trump posted 0:23:34.520 --> 0:23:36.040 on true Social and I want to read it to 0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:38.040 you before we get to our guests. Avive Reddy Gore, 0:23:38.520 --> 0:23:42.240 Iranian patriots now all in cap, keep protesting, take over 0:23:42.280 --> 0:23:45.760 your institutions. Three exclamation points. Save the names of the 0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:48.560 killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I've 0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:51.440 canceled all meetings with the reading officials until the senseless 0:23:51.520 --> 0:23:54.480 killing of protesters stops. All in caps, and then all 0:23:54.520 --> 0:23:59.719 in cap help is on its way. Period. Miga MiG 0:24:00.359 --> 0:24:05.120 Maker on great again, three exclamation points, President Donald J. Trump. 0:24:05.480 --> 0:24:08.640 That posted at nine forty three am East Coast time. 0:24:09.000 --> 0:24:12.000 I'm joined now by Aviv Retti Gore. Aviva is a 0:24:12.040 --> 0:24:14.840 senior analyst for The Times Visrael. He's also a podcast 0:24:14.880 --> 0:24:18.680 where the Ask Aviv Anything podcast comes in long form 0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:20.600 and in short form. I listened to today's on the 0:24:20.640 --> 0:24:23.000 two into Fadas, which gave me names and dates that 0:24:23.040 --> 0:24:26.960 I didn't know. Aviv, Happy New Year to you, welcome back. 0:24:27.840 --> 0:24:30.399 Thank you you good to be here. And also just 0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:32.320 the Free Press. I'm also with the Free Press as 0:24:32.320 --> 0:24:33.399 a Middle East aily. 0:24:33.720 --> 0:24:36.800 I've always got to say that Times Visual the Free Press, 0:24:36.840 --> 0:24:39.159 and then we need to tell people. You're also on Patreon, 0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:42.160 which I is the only Patreon I belong to because 0:24:42.200 --> 0:24:44.040 it's the only one I get real value. I subscribe 0:24:44.080 --> 0:24:45.840 to the Free Press, but I get real value from 0:24:45.840 --> 0:24:48.520 your Patreon. How do people find that? Just Patreon and 0:24:48.600 --> 0:24:49.400 Aviv Retti. 0:24:49.240 --> 0:24:52.800 Gore yeah, or ask Aviv anything on Patreon. Thanks so 0:24:52.920 --> 0:24:54.360 much for the plug. I really appreciate it. 0:24:54.560 --> 0:24:57.359 Well, it's only five bucks a month and it's really 0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:01.960 very much worth it. Like Dan Senor's special edition as well, 0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:08.040 I've gone into funnels silos from my news to go deep. 0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:10.359 Have you before I go any further? What do you 0:25:10.440 --> 0:25:12.840 make of what I think is a hinge moment in Iran, 0:25:13.080 --> 0:25:15.520 especially in light of what President Trump posted this morning. 0:25:17.440 --> 0:25:21.000 At this very moment, there are reports that phone lines 0:25:21.000 --> 0:25:23.520 can now call out of Iran again. Some of the 0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:27.000 digital blackouts appears to be lifting or was broken, or 0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:29.359 maybe hackers did it. We don't quite know. There was 0:25:29.400 --> 0:25:34.160 a news from CBS News that they got initial reports 0:25:34.200 --> 0:25:37.560 that the report's about twelve thousand dead in the last 0:25:37.600 --> 0:25:40.680 just two three days that Iran International ran. It might 0:25:40.760 --> 0:25:43.159 be much higher than that. People in Iran are talking 0:25:43.520 --> 0:25:46.119 about something very big, very dramatic. These are, you know, 0:25:46.320 --> 0:25:49.199 early days. We don't have a lot of information. The 0:25:49.240 --> 0:25:53.960 whole country taken off the internet, but the regime crackdown 0:25:53.960 --> 0:25:57.679 has gotten lethal. The regime itself has admitted two thousand dead. 0:25:57.920 --> 0:26:01.560 So everything is escalating. All the gloves are off, the 0:26:01.560 --> 0:26:06.120 regime is terrified, and into that context that those signals 0:26:06.119 --> 0:26:09.440 that we can get out of Iran. President Trump's statement 0:26:09.840 --> 0:26:13.400 probably echoes very very loudly what he said on your 0:26:13.440 --> 0:26:16.840 podcast what was it three days ago, where he just said, 0:26:16.920 --> 0:26:19.920 you know, they know that a lot of that they're 0:26:20.080 --> 0:26:22.879 going to pay a price, and he urged people to 0:26:22.920 --> 0:26:27.480 take the names of officers and officials involved in the repression. 0:26:27.560 --> 0:26:30.280 That's actually really fascinating because we've already seen that. You know, 0:26:30.280 --> 0:26:33.000 there was this what they called a Tianamen Square moment 0:26:33.840 --> 0:26:37.560 where one protester was sitting down on the street in 0:26:37.640 --> 0:26:41.280 front of the police trying to clear out the protests, 0:26:41.680 --> 0:26:44.000 and that protester would go on to get beaten by 0:26:44.040 --> 0:26:47.920 those cops. And what's really fascinating is within a few 0:26:47.960 --> 0:26:52.119 hours the names of the of the agents of the 0:26:52.160 --> 0:26:56.480 regime who beat the protester were publicized on Iranian internet. 0:26:56.880 --> 0:27:00.480 And so it's a new day, it's a new moments. 0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:04.080 Are no longer willing to play the regimes game in huge, 0:27:04.160 --> 0:27:07.159 huge numbers. We don't yet know how it's going to go. 0:27:07.240 --> 0:27:10.159 It's important to say twenty percent of this country is 0:27:10.280 --> 0:27:13.920 deeply Islamist and believes in the regimes ideology and will 0:27:13.960 --> 0:27:16.840 die for the regime. We not literally twice on the 0:27:16.880 --> 0:27:19.040 population will die, but twenty percent of the poplation will fight. 0:27:19.080 --> 0:27:22.160 And the entire besieged militia is hundreds of thousands of people, 0:27:22.160 --> 0:27:25.480 with many more who could volunteer. So it's it's almost 0:27:25.560 --> 0:27:28.840 a kind of mini civil war when you have a 0:27:28.880 --> 0:27:32.000 revolution against this regime. But nevertheless, it has never gone 0:27:32.000 --> 0:27:34.680 this far, and the rage and the lack of any 0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:38.280 willingness to tolerate the regime pretending like everything's okay or 0:27:38.320 --> 0:27:40.959 can never go back to normal, that's all new, and 0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:43.040 so it is a it is a new moment. It 0:27:43.080 --> 0:27:45.840 could fail, but it's never gone this far before. 0:27:46.480 --> 0:27:49.800 So Aviv I had done an entire outline because we 0:27:50.080 --> 0:27:52.359 schedule this six weeks two months in advance to get 0:27:52.359 --> 0:27:54.879 ahold of the vvs in demand everywhere in the world, 0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:56.920 and so I'm happy to talk to him every month 0:27:57.000 --> 0:27:59.600 or so. And we scheduled this weeks ago, and I 0:27:59.640 --> 0:28:02.199 have a whole long list of questions are going to 0:28:02.200 --> 0:28:04.359 get pushed to the back about the Hari Dam and 0:28:04.400 --> 0:28:08.920 the legal legal reform and the elections. That's the next time. 0:28:09.200 --> 0:28:12.240 This just came up. Not long ago. You had Barry 0:28:12.240 --> 0:28:15.400 Strauss on your program. He wrote the new book last year, 0:28:15.520 --> 0:28:18.479 Jews Versus Rome, fascinating book. I had listened to it 0:28:18.520 --> 0:28:20.840 on tape after I listened to your interview, I went 0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:23.520 back and bought it because the names are hard to 0:28:23.520 --> 0:28:26.240 get when you're listening. I mean, I know Pompey the Great, 0:28:26.640 --> 0:28:29.359 and I get Tiberius, and I know this pro Consul 0:28:29.480 --> 0:28:31.800 and Cestius and all these very things, but I need 0:28:31.800 --> 0:28:34.760 to get the chronology in black and white. So I 0:28:34.840 --> 0:28:36.800 really want to kind of do the same thing with 0:28:36.920 --> 0:28:39.960 you throughout that book, which is the History of the 0:28:40.320 --> 0:28:44.640 Great Revolt sixty six eighty to seventy and of the 0:28:44.720 --> 0:28:48.600 Diasper revolt and of the bar Kobat revolt in about 0:28:48.640 --> 0:28:51.400 one hundred and thirty eighty. I want to go back then, 0:28:51.440 --> 0:28:54.440 because Iran is all through that book under the name 0:28:54.480 --> 0:28:58.920 of Parthia, and so Iran modern day Iran was part 0:28:58.960 --> 0:29:01.760 of ancient part empire, the only empire that kind of 0:29:01.800 --> 0:29:05.520 got to a standoff with Rome prior to the revolution 0:29:05.680 --> 0:29:09.680 in nineteen seventy nine. How did Israel and Iran get along? 0:29:11.760 --> 0:29:17.120 They were quite good friends. They were I don't want 0:29:17.120 --> 0:29:19.640 to exaggerate it. They weren't, you know, Bosom buddies, but 0:29:19.720 --> 0:29:24.240 they had a real relationship and alliance. They shared enemies. 0:29:24.560 --> 0:29:28.080 Shared enemies is a very powerful incentive in the Middle 0:29:28.120 --> 0:29:32.720 East to be close. And more than that, the Iran 0:29:33.280 --> 0:29:37.360 of the Shah, okay, the Shah had a repressive regime. 0:29:37.520 --> 0:29:39.360 It was a deeply problematic regime. 0:29:40.120 --> 0:29:42.400 It killed people. It was you know, it was. 0:29:42.440 --> 0:29:44.680 Nothing compared to what the Ayatolas would go on and 0:29:44.720 --> 0:29:47.480 build after the revolution to topple the Shah. But nevertheless, 0:29:47.480 --> 0:29:50.760 the Shaw was not a democrat. But the Iran of 0:29:50.840 --> 0:29:54.360 the Shah was a modern country. It was a country 0:29:54.360 --> 0:29:57.360 where women walked around in you know, with their hair 0:29:57.680 --> 0:30:02.400 out and universities were ill universities and one of the 0:30:02.520 --> 0:30:06.720 tragedies of the last forty seven years of Aetola's rule, 0:30:06.760 --> 0:30:09.440 and there are many tragedies. Iran is a gutted country. 0:30:09.440 --> 0:30:12.400 It's an economy in ruins. It doesn't have electricity, it 0:30:12.400 --> 0:30:15.680 doesn't have you know, it's one of the wealthiest in 0:30:15.760 --> 0:30:19.239 terms of hydrocarbon reserves countries on Earth, and people live 0:30:19.320 --> 0:30:22.000 with less electricity than in most of much of the 0:30:22.040 --> 0:30:25.000 Third World. I mean, it's just it's it's a country 0:30:25.000 --> 0:30:29.160 that has been demolished by this region and the Iran 0:30:29.280 --> 0:30:31.760 before this region of the shop was a country that 0:30:31.800 --> 0:30:35.480 was modernizing with modern universities and modern you know, in 0:30:35.560 --> 0:30:38.360 modern economy and was looking for ways to have investment 0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:42.400 and development. Incidentally, last time you interviewed President President Trump 0:30:42.560 --> 0:30:45.680 noted that he had had friends back in the seventies 0:30:45.760 --> 0:30:48.000 who were real estate developers in New York who were 0:30:48.080 --> 0:30:51.040 looking at Iran to build and had built buildings in Iran, 0:30:51.120 --> 0:30:53.680 and investing in Iran was a smart move because of 0:30:53.680 --> 0:30:55.760 those hydrocarbon reserves, because it was an economy that could 0:30:55.800 --> 0:30:58.760 have turned the place into you know, some mix of 0:30:58.800 --> 0:30:59.920 Saudi Arabia and Turkey. 0:31:00.320 --> 0:31:02.040 There's nothing preventing. 0:31:01.640 --> 0:31:06.160 That from happening, except that the Islamist section of Iranian 0:31:06.160 --> 0:31:09.560 society took over the country and ruined it. Israel saw 0:31:09.640 --> 0:31:13.520 a friend. Israel saw a modern nation, and Israel saw 0:31:14.560 --> 0:31:17.840 basically just the modern commercial world that everybody wants to 0:31:17.840 --> 0:31:20.040 live in. You know, there's a world that's not taken 0:31:20.040 --> 0:31:24.080 over by crazy ideologues demolishing their own country just to 0:31:24.120 --> 0:31:27.640 retain power. So Iran was that it was a friend. 0:31:27.640 --> 0:31:29.560 It was what the Middle East should always have been. 0:31:29.680 --> 0:31:32.120 It would have been but for something it could be. 0:31:33.320 --> 0:31:34.960 When you say it could have been a mix of 0:31:35.000 --> 0:31:37.040 Turkey and Saudi Arabia, I think it could have been 0:31:37.080 --> 0:31:39.480 another Israel, because they had the wealth, and they had 0:31:39.520 --> 0:31:43.960 the university and an tremendous base in nineteen seventy nine 0:31:43.960 --> 0:31:46.720 of an educated elite who could have been at the 0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:50.920 vanguard of the technology revolution in the last fifty years. Instead, 0:31:50.920 --> 0:31:54.240 they went backwards. And you're probably not old enough to 0:31:54.280 --> 0:31:56.800 remember this, but I remember it well. In nineteen seventy nine, 0:31:56.840 --> 0:32:00.560 I was working for then exiled President Nixon and Clementy 0:32:00.640 --> 0:32:02.320 and Ray Price, and I and he would sit on 0:32:02.360 --> 0:32:04.800 a couch and watch this, and the whole world thought 0:32:04.880 --> 0:32:07.920 Harmione was was going to be a good force. Did 0:32:07.960 --> 0:32:11.000 the Israelis get tricked by that too? The whole world 0:32:11.000 --> 0:32:13.920 not Nixon. Nixon said there's a disaster, But did Israel 0:32:14.080 --> 0:32:17.440 think Hamione would bring anything better than the Shaw? 0:32:18.920 --> 0:32:21.240 I can't speak for every analyst, and uh, you know, 0:32:21.280 --> 0:32:23.080 it's a big country with a lot of people who 0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:27.959 have very strong views and not necessarily a lot of knowledge, So, 0:32:28.320 --> 0:32:32.800 you know, speaking as a media pundit, right, No, Fraserelis 0:32:32.920 --> 0:32:35.040 was a disaster, and it was very clearly a disaster. 0:32:35.160 --> 0:32:38.560 And in fact, Kamenei made a point of building his 0:32:38.600 --> 0:32:41.440 coalition with the communists and building his coalition with the 0:32:41.480 --> 0:32:43.880 third world as we might call them today, with all 0:32:43.920 --> 0:32:47.160 of these anti Western powers that were secular, that were 0:32:47.280 --> 0:32:51.160 progressive in Iran. I'm not speaking now about college campuses 0:32:51.160 --> 0:32:53.480 in America. I'm talking about you know, Iran in the seventies. 0:32:53.600 --> 0:32:56.240 He actually built his coalition that was able to topple 0:32:56.280 --> 0:32:59.240 the Shaw with these other powers. One of the main 0:32:59.520 --> 0:33:01.640 things that he shared of all the topics on Earth, 0:33:01.840 --> 0:33:03.920 they didn't agree on religion, they didn't agree on the economy, 0:33:03.960 --> 0:33:06.080 they didn't agree on who should actually run the place. 0:33:06.080 --> 0:33:10.040 After the revolution, they all agreed that the Jews of 0:33:10.080 --> 0:33:13.960 Israel were in evil crime against history and had to 0:33:14.000 --> 0:33:17.640 be removed, whether for progressive, secular for Islamic reasons. 0:33:17.840 --> 0:33:20.360 So this was AA. I gotta take a break and 0:33:20.440 --> 0:33:23.600 go off air, and I'll be right back after the break. 0:33:23.760 --> 0:33:25.560 You're listening to the Hugh Hewitt Show on the Salem 0:33:25.680 --> 0:33:28.280 Radio Network, watching it on the Salem News Channel, and 0:33:28.320 --> 0:33:30.720 this will be part of the podcast today as well. 0:33:31.240 --> 0:33:34.160 Don't go anywhere, Stay tuned. Have Viv ready. Gore can 0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:38.360 be followed on x at Aviv retted Gore. He is 0:33:38.400 --> 0:33:41.040 with the Free Press, he is with senior analysts at 0:33:41.080 --> 0:33:45.720 the Times of Israel. His patreon asked Aviv Anything, Stay 0:33:45.720 --> 0:33:48.560 tuned to the UIT show. Welcome back to America. I'm 0:33:48.640 --> 0:33:52.240 Hugh Hewett. I guess there's Aviv rehtted Gore. You can 0:33:52.280 --> 0:33:56.120 find ask Aviv Anywhere, Ask Aviv Anything Anywhere on the 0:33:56.120 --> 0:33:59.480 podcast World Ask Aviv Anything, Aviv. The reason I brought 0:33:59.520 --> 0:34:02.360 up in the first segment Barry Strauss is it seems 0:34:02.400 --> 0:34:06.720 to me that an ancient civilization like Persia, which was 0:34:06.760 --> 0:34:10.160 part of the Parthian Empire, has beneath that, just beneath 0:34:10.200 --> 0:34:16.520 the surface of this Islamist radicalism, extremism. Another civilization used 0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:20.839 to study history. Israel's an ancient civilization. Do they lay 0:34:20.880 --> 0:34:23.439 dormant forever or is there a reason to give hope 0:34:23.480 --> 0:34:27.480 that maybe the eighty percent of Iranians who want to 0:34:27.480 --> 0:34:31.520 connect with their Persian roots can overwhelm the regime. 0:34:35.160 --> 0:34:40.240 This is an extraordinary nation and it has faced really 0:34:40.680 --> 0:34:42.399 a gutting kind of brain drain. 0:34:43.400 --> 0:34:44.319 Probably hundreds of. 0:34:44.239 --> 0:34:46.840 Thousands, I mean hundreds of thousands of scholars and scientists 0:34:46.840 --> 0:34:49.799 and mathematicians and are contributing to every country in the 0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:52.600 world except Iran because they can't do their work and. 0:34:54.320 --> 0:34:55.560 You're on under this region. 0:34:56.080 --> 0:34:59.120 It is an extraordinary civilization, It is ancient. It has 0:34:59.560 --> 0:35:04.160 one of the one of the cynical element regime is 0:35:04.160 --> 0:35:07.080 that every time there's a protest, every time there's one 0:35:07.080 --> 0:35:09.640 of these, you know, we're uprisings against the regime, and 0:35:09.680 --> 0:35:13.560 it feels a little threatened. It starts to talk about 0:35:13.640 --> 0:35:17.560 Persian history, about the Persian civilization, about the great ancient 0:35:17.600 --> 0:35:20.920 Iranian people, and as soon as everything stabilizes. This is 0:35:20.920 --> 0:35:27.120 something that Roy, an Iranian American writer said beautifully as 0:35:27.120 --> 0:35:29.680 soon as the regime stabilizes, it goes back to being 0:35:29.840 --> 0:35:33.759 Islamist and in part having this ideology of erasing that 0:35:33.840 --> 0:35:37.759 Iranian past in favor of this puritanical Islam. So there 0:35:37.840 --> 0:35:42.400 is absolutely a cultural contest, a culture war, but a 0:35:42.440 --> 0:35:45.399 deeper sense, not not culture war, you know, Republicans democrats 0:35:45.440 --> 0:35:48.520 like an ordinary Western culture war in a democracy. There's 0:35:48.520 --> 0:35:52.080 a culture war between the two cultures of Iran, the 0:35:52.160 --> 0:35:56.160 Islamic Persians, you know, pushed by Ramenei, not sort of 0:35:56.400 --> 0:36:01.000 a peaceful ordinary Islam, but this militant revolution tionary on 0:36:01.040 --> 0:36:05.960 the march, demolishing countries, version and everything that Iran and Persia, 0:36:06.000 --> 0:36:09.120 and you mentioned Aparthi as you said, all this ancient 0:36:09.200 --> 0:36:13.040 story of this ancient storied people who are extraordinarily talented 0:36:13.080 --> 0:36:18.160 and extraordinarily wise, I should say, Persian Jews led Iran 0:36:18.600 --> 0:36:21.520 in the vast, vast majority, less than twenty percent remains 0:36:21.520 --> 0:36:24.759 in the country, and they're under constant regime surveillance, and 0:36:24.840 --> 0:36:28.080 they can't leave the country without forfeiting their every last asset. 0:36:28.600 --> 0:36:32.040 And even then eighty percent shows to leave. And they 0:36:32.120 --> 0:36:37.520 are a huge, you know, strong, wealthy, successful community both 0:36:37.520 --> 0:36:42.040 in Israel, in California, anywhere where they step. So yeah, 0:36:42.120 --> 0:36:46.720 this is an absolutely extra you'd start measuring finding metrics 0:36:46.719 --> 0:36:51.239 of achievement of Iranians. It's amazing, and their country is 0:36:51.280 --> 0:36:54.520 totally gutted and their economy looks like, you know, I 0:36:54.520 --> 0:36:56.640 don't know what the bottom billion of this world. I mean, 0:36:56.760 --> 0:36:59.320 you know the failures of the UN Human Development Reports, 0:36:59.360 --> 0:37:00.279 and there's no reason. 0:37:00.080 --> 0:37:01.200 For it except this regime. 0:37:02.360 --> 0:37:07.839 And by the way, go ahead, go ahead of you. 0:37:07.840 --> 0:37:08.680 You're gonna say, by. 0:37:08.560 --> 0:37:13.200 The way, Malay in that sense where you had one 0:37:13.200 --> 0:37:18.399 of the wealthiest countries of South America, a successful democratic 0:37:18.680 --> 0:37:22.000 and then a bad ideology takes over and a third 0:37:22.000 --> 0:37:25.279 of the country turns into refugees and people can't eat. 0:37:25.600 --> 0:37:27.680 And that's the story. That's the story of this regime. 0:37:27.680 --> 0:37:31.880 People should look up the literal water shortages that have 0:37:32.000 --> 0:37:35.680 gutted Iranian agriculture. They should look up, you know, the 0:37:35.719 --> 0:37:38.480 scale of the hydrocarbon reserves. They should look up the 0:37:38.560 --> 0:37:42.920 incompetence the Twelve Day War, you know, with President Trump's 0:37:42.920 --> 0:37:45.320 decision to help the Israelis with been donning hammer because 0:37:45.360 --> 0:37:48.480 he has said for literally two decades, Iran can't get 0:37:48.480 --> 0:37:51.880 a bomb. All of that stuff is what everyone's talked about. 0:37:51.880 --> 0:37:53.600 But just for a second, let's take a step back 0:37:53.640 --> 0:37:56.360 and just look at Iran. This regime for forty seven 0:37:56.440 --> 0:37:58.720 years has told its people they need to sit quiet 0:37:58.760 --> 0:38:02.440 and suffer because the regime is doing some great important 0:38:02.480 --> 0:38:03.320 thing for Islam. 0:38:03.360 --> 0:38:04.719 What is that great important thing? 0:38:05.000 --> 0:38:08.279 Preparing the destruction of Zionism. Never mind if that's a 0:38:08.280 --> 0:38:10.280 good or bad thing. I happen to like my people 0:38:10.280 --> 0:38:12.360 in my country and my nation and my children. But 0:38:12.600 --> 0:38:16.640 even if you don't like my people, forty seven years 0:38:16.680 --> 0:38:19.760 of preparation, and Israel cleaned their clock in twelve days, 0:38:20.360 --> 0:38:22.960 and Irani in general used to be able to walk 0:38:23.000 --> 0:38:27.120 around the streets of Tehran and command some respect. And 0:38:27.200 --> 0:38:30.400 Irani in general, who walks the streets of Tehran today 0:38:30.840 --> 0:38:31.399 didn't bother. 0:38:31.600 --> 0:38:33.200 Killing is the only reason he's alive. 0:38:33.520 --> 0:38:38.600 If you're in the IRGC, so's there's just why again, 0:38:39.160 --> 0:38:41.400 leave the morality aside, just look at the competence. 0:38:41.880 --> 0:38:44.480 This reason you also mentioned in your first in the 0:38:44.480 --> 0:38:47.120 first segment we talked about, you mentioned the fact that 0:38:47.160 --> 0:38:52.080 they have been brutalized by their currency collapse. I think 0:38:52.120 --> 0:38:54.120 one of the reasons that this is a hinge moment 0:38:54.520 --> 0:38:58.480 is the real is worthless. So everybody's life savings, including 0:38:58.520 --> 0:39:02.400 those of the besiege, those of the IRGC, everyone except 0:39:02.400 --> 0:39:05.200 the very top elite who managed to turn it into 0:39:05.200 --> 0:39:08.640 gold or jewels, they've been wiped out in the last 0:39:08.680 --> 0:39:11.279 six months or since operation of Midnight Hammer and the 0:39:11.320 --> 0:39:14.520 Israeli Twelve Day War. Do you think that is a 0:39:15.120 --> 0:39:18.320 driver here? Because, by the way, coverage of Iran in 0:39:18.320 --> 0:39:20.319 the United States is awful. I have to go to 0:39:20.360 --> 0:39:23.000 the Times of Israel to learn anything about what's going 0:39:23.040 --> 0:39:27.120 on in Iran because the American press doesn't care or 0:39:27.160 --> 0:39:30.160 doesn't have the expertise. So do you think that the 0:39:30.239 --> 0:39:33.280 collapse of the we all gives this one more energy 0:39:33.360 --> 0:39:36.319 than the Women's movement in twenty two where the Green 0:39:36.360 --> 0:39:37.680 movement in two thousand and nine. 0:39:39.320 --> 0:39:43.920 Absolutely, We've already had revolutions of protests, uprisings of the 0:39:43.960 --> 0:39:47.400 students of the liberal activists. We've seen that and they 0:39:47.400 --> 0:39:51.120 were easily crushed. Didn't help the President Obama wouldn't support them. 0:39:51.360 --> 0:39:56.440 And then we saw the Woman Life I. 0:39:56.400 --> 0:39:59.080 Forget freedom exactly, Women Freedom Life. 0:40:00.040 --> 0:40:04.040 The Life movement, which was a whole new thing because 0:40:04.640 --> 0:40:08.680 it was specifically about the religious restrictions and about the 0:40:08.719 --> 0:40:11.440 religious regime and ever since that, by the way, it 0:40:11.600 --> 0:40:14.080 was crushed, and it was crushed brutally. Twenty thousand people 0:40:14.080 --> 0:40:16.719 were arrested and thrown in prison. But the regime has 0:40:16.719 --> 0:40:19.840 started to get a little more lax in enforcing the 0:40:19.920 --> 0:40:22.359 hijab rules, for example, and so we know that they 0:40:22.400 --> 0:40:25.360 got scared. Now we're seeing something completely different. Over the 0:40:25.400 --> 0:40:28.919 last year and even more than a year, You've had 0:40:28.960 --> 0:40:31.960 these because you have these electricity shortages, because you had 0:40:32.000 --> 0:40:36.400 these running water shortages. You've had different groups protesting. You 0:40:36.480 --> 0:40:41.280 had the truckers you protesting. You had agriculturalists, of farmers 0:40:41.320 --> 0:40:43.680 and various kinds of people who work in agriculture starting 0:40:43.680 --> 0:40:47.080 to mount serious protests. You have a lot of disquiet 0:40:47.080 --> 0:40:49.279 among the Arabs in the south. You have a lot 0:40:49.320 --> 0:40:51.920 of movement in all kinds of different sections. And then 0:40:51.960 --> 0:40:55.839 the reality plunges and just implodes, and then you get 0:40:55.840 --> 0:40:59.759 the Bazaris. The bizarre is the small shopkeepers or spread 0:40:59.800 --> 0:41:03.680 up you know, significant importers, business people of Iran, the 0:41:03.719 --> 0:41:06.400 people on whom the economy stands, the people the regime 0:41:06.600 --> 0:41:07.760 has to keep happy. 0:41:08.239 --> 0:41:10.960 They didn't join this uprising. 0:41:11.719 --> 0:41:13.279 Are this uprising? 0:41:13.640 --> 0:41:14.440 Everybody else? 0:41:14.520 --> 0:41:18.800 The students, the farmers, everybody joined them. So we suddenly 0:41:18.840 --> 0:41:22.160 have a cross section of Iranian society of people who 0:41:22.160 --> 0:41:26.360 have never protested, wouldn't have protested, but they can't live anymore. 0:41:26.360 --> 0:41:29.240 This regime has gutted everything. And one of the points 0:41:29.239 --> 0:41:33.040 that I made before about the currency that we all 0:41:33.080 --> 0:41:34.200 collapsed if you're not. 0:41:34.239 --> 0:41:36.400 Close to the regime. If you are close to the regime, the. 0:41:36.400 --> 0:41:40.640 Government actually enforces a separate currency exchange rate for you, 0:41:40.960 --> 0:41:44.400 so you can afford to you know, live feed your family, 0:41:44.760 --> 0:41:47.839 buy iPhones. Everyone else in the country can't afford water 0:41:47.880 --> 0:41:52.440 and electricity. And so this regime has driven more and 0:41:52.560 --> 0:41:56.200 more sections of Iranian society to rise up against it. 0:41:56.600 --> 0:41:58.640 And this might be that Tippic it might not, but 0:41:58.719 --> 0:41:59.200 it might. 0:41:59.120 --> 0:42:02.880 Be that it reminds me of Poland in eighty five, 0:42:03.320 --> 0:42:06.680 and then the East Block in eighty seven to eighty nine, 0:42:06.719 --> 0:42:10.359 and then the Soviet Union in eighty nine to ninety one. 0:42:10.400 --> 0:42:13.080 They're all gone. Now. I'll be right back with Aviv 0:42:13.120 --> 0:42:16.520 Rhttig Gore. Followhim on ax at Haviv Retty Gore, Ask 0:42:16.640 --> 0:42:20.680 Aviv anything is on any podcast network and a Patreon, 0:42:21.120 --> 0:42:24.359 Stay tuned on t quit. Welcome back to America. I'm 0:42:24.400 --> 0:42:27.759 Hugh Hewitt with Aviv Rehttig Gore. Whether you're listening in 0:42:27.800 --> 0:42:30.840 your car on the Salem Radio Network, are affiliates watching 0:42:30.840 --> 0:42:34.080 on the Sale News channel or catching up on the podcast. 0:42:34.280 --> 0:42:39.200 Aviv's podcast is Ask Kaviv Anything. Israel got ten million people, 0:42:39.440 --> 0:42:44.520 Iran's got ninety million people. On October the seventh, Israel 0:42:44.560 --> 0:42:48.960 suffered twelve hundred murders, and the numbers coming out of 0:42:48.960 --> 0:42:52.160 Iran are not yet well. I guess the high estimates 0:42:52.200 --> 0:42:54.840 would be roughly proportional. The high estimates are twelve thousand 0:42:54.880 --> 0:42:57.720 that have been phoned into CBS News have been butchered 0:42:57.760 --> 0:43:00.600 by the mullas. What kind of a effect do you 0:43:00.640 --> 0:43:03.399 think that will have? That kind of a masker because 0:43:03.400 --> 0:43:05.080 you've lived it, you've lived it for two and a 0:43:05.120 --> 0:43:08.880 half years. What do you think the average Iranian emotional 0:43:08.920 --> 0:43:11.399 state is? Because everyone's going to know someone when twelve 0:43:11.400 --> 0:43:12.719 thousand people get mowed down. 0:43:14.280 --> 0:43:16.839 Yeah, let me just say Iranians have suffered a lot 0:43:16.840 --> 0:43:18.120 more than Israelis. 0:43:19.320 --> 0:43:20.719 My own government didn't do. 0:43:20.680 --> 0:43:25.680 It to me, and I don't live in an oppressive state, 0:43:26.640 --> 0:43:31.760 and I you know, the ordinary run ninety two million 0:43:31.800 --> 0:43:36.320 people in iran don't have a vote and don't decide 0:43:36.360 --> 0:43:38.799 the most fundamental things and have been essentially forced to 0:43:38.800 --> 0:43:42.399 live in poverty for the regimes revolution, and so this 0:43:42.520 --> 0:43:46.720 regime massacring people is a whole it's a whole different story. 0:43:47.080 --> 0:43:49.319 You know, if the United States government, because of some 0:43:49.360 --> 0:43:53.800 cultural or Vietnam protests, eat somebody, then all of America 0:43:53.840 --> 0:43:58.280 talks about it. And it's different from a brutal, oppressive, 0:43:58.560 --> 0:44:02.200 five decade regime that forces women to cover their hair 0:44:02.320 --> 0:44:06.200 everywhere suddenly murdering many, many thousands of people who are 0:44:06.200 --> 0:44:09.480 demanding things like the right to devote. So Iranians are 0:44:09.520 --> 0:44:13.600 suffering profoundly. Their families are struggling literally to get by 0:44:13.760 --> 0:44:18.160 to eat, and this regime is willing to murder huge 0:44:18.160 --> 0:44:23.480 swaths of its people. One really dangerous statement came out 0:44:23.480 --> 0:44:27.040 of Kamuna himself, who said, we lost hundreds of thousands 0:44:27.040 --> 0:44:30.439 of people to make the revolution happen. He's not talking 0:44:30.480 --> 0:44:32.720 about the revolution the top of the Shah. He's probably, 0:44:32.719 --> 0:44:34.600 I don't know what, talking about the Irani rock board. 0:44:35.080 --> 0:44:36.560 Yeah, that's what I thought. 0:44:38.000 --> 0:44:41.279 We're willing to kill hundreds of thousands to that's the 0:44:41.320 --> 0:44:45.680 bar for protecting this revolution. He's threatening to kill in 0:44:45.760 --> 0:44:48.480 the six figures. And that's the thing that everybody has 0:44:48.520 --> 0:44:50.920 to watch out for right now. Now this regime suddenly 0:44:51.040 --> 0:44:53.360 ups the ante. You don't shut off the entire country's 0:44:53.360 --> 0:44:55.360 internet if you're not trying to hide something. 0:44:56.320 --> 0:44:59.440 Now, if he summons up the Iraq Iran War. I 0:44:59.480 --> 0:45:02.239 read a book by a fellow by name Ashan Ostovar 0:45:02.360 --> 0:45:05.920 called Vanguard of the Imam, and he said that their strength, 0:45:06.200 --> 0:45:09.120 the regime strength, was rooted in the veterans of that war, 0:45:10.080 --> 0:45:12.719 the Iraq Iran War, which ran for ten years, and 0:45:12.760 --> 0:45:15.560 about which I think Donald RUMs felt famously said, can't 0:45:15.560 --> 0:45:20.880 they both lose? But the question that's that generation of veterans, 0:45:21.239 --> 0:45:24.160 they're dead or they're very old men. Now do they 0:45:24.200 --> 0:45:27.160 still have a grip on the imagination of the country. 0:45:28.800 --> 0:45:31.960 They have nothing. They have nothing, They have no grip. 0:45:32.320 --> 0:45:35.880 There's that again. There's a twenty percent of Iran's population. 0:45:36.920 --> 0:45:40.000 You hear this from academics in the West, from Iranians. 0:45:40.040 --> 0:45:43.000 You hear this from Israeli intelligence, which, as we learned 0:45:43.040 --> 0:45:44.799 back in June, have a pretty good sense of what's 0:45:44.840 --> 0:45:48.120 happening in Iran. There is twenty percent of the Iranian 0:45:48.160 --> 0:45:51.319 population that is utterly totally committed to this regime. Ideologically, 0:45:52.560 --> 0:45:55.239 it's having the same economic troubles everybody else is having. 0:45:55.320 --> 0:45:57.799 We're not seeing them come out quite in the same 0:45:57.880 --> 0:46:00.000 numbers in the past, even though the danger is greater. 0:46:00.480 --> 0:46:01.799 I don't know what that means. I don't know if 0:46:01.840 --> 0:46:04.000 that just means that they're gonna come out next week. 0:46:04.040 --> 0:46:06.840 I don't know what that means, you know, I don't 0:46:06.880 --> 0:46:09.279 know to say. Everything is moving and we're getting these 0:46:09.520 --> 0:46:13.040 very sort of minor, small signals, and we're trying to 0:46:13.080 --> 0:46:18.000 interpret the larger picture. But the eighty percent who aren't 0:46:18.080 --> 0:46:21.520 in that deep Islam is true believer section of Iranian 0:46:21.600 --> 0:46:25.680 society have no respect for this regime at all and 0:46:25.760 --> 0:46:28.759 view this regime correctly as just a mafia. 0:46:28.800 --> 0:46:29.840 It's just a mafia. 0:46:29.920 --> 0:46:32.680 There's no They don't even believe in the things that 0:46:32.719 --> 0:46:36.799 they say. You know, the regime generals their families. More 0:46:36.840 --> 0:46:39.160 and more of their families live abroad, live in the 0:46:39.280 --> 0:46:42.439 United States, live in Britain, live in places where they 0:46:42.440 --> 0:46:45.920 don't have to suffer with the people that their own 0:46:46.160 --> 0:46:49.920 family members in the IRGC are forcing to suffer. And 0:46:50.000 --> 0:46:52.680 so there is this deep disconnect this stuff makes its 0:46:52.680 --> 0:46:56.400 way through Iranian social media. Everybody knows that they're a 0:46:56.520 --> 0:47:00.440 mafia that pretends to be a religious movement. It hasn't 0:47:00.440 --> 0:47:03.279 been a religious movement for decades. And that's basically the 0:47:03.320 --> 0:47:03.839 story here. 0:47:04.960 --> 0:47:07.759 So I would encourage everyone to go over to the 0:47:07.840 --> 0:47:12.279 Commentary podcast because Eli Lake was the guest on Commentary 0:47:12.320 --> 0:47:16.200 Podcast today and he made the point Aviv just avered to, 0:47:16.880 --> 0:47:20.120 which is that a lot of the Iranian elite are abroad, 0:47:20.200 --> 0:47:23.000 their children are abroad, and that one of the things 0:47:23.040 --> 0:47:25.319 the United States and England and other people ought to 0:47:25.360 --> 0:47:28.800 consider is sending them home, is saying, you've got to 0:47:28.840 --> 0:47:32.200 go live with the disaster that is the country that 0:47:32.239 --> 0:47:35.480 your parents have made, and they've sent you to school. 0:47:35.480 --> 0:47:39.920 And he mentioned that the daughter of the Iranian Prime Minister. 0:47:40.200 --> 0:47:42.680 I think that's what he said, or the Iranian President 0:47:43.040 --> 0:47:45.400 is a nursing student at Emery. Now, don't give her 0:47:45.400 --> 0:47:47.800 a hard time. It's not her fault what her parents 0:47:47.840 --> 0:47:50.480 have built and her father has built. But Aviv makes 0:47:50.480 --> 0:47:53.960 an important point when we come back Israel's role in 0:47:54.000 --> 0:47:56.439 whatever the United States is going to come up with, 0:47:56.640 --> 0:47:58.799 which got it could be unfolding tonight. We don't know 0:47:58.840 --> 0:48:02.120 could be underway right now in America. I'm here, Welcome 0:48:02.160 --> 0:48:04.520 back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett with Aviv Reddy Gore. 0:48:04.920 --> 0:48:06.960 I do believe we're at one of those hinge moments 0:48:07.000 --> 0:48:09.560 in history where what happened in Iran's going to drive 0:48:09.560 --> 0:48:12.520 a lot of the next thirty to fifty years. Aviv. 0:48:12.600 --> 0:48:16.120 I've got Bernard Lewis books by the shelf load. I've 0:48:16.160 --> 0:48:19.920 read about The Looming Tower by Lawrence Right. You and 0:48:19.960 --> 0:48:25.480 I have talked about Hamas and Wahabism and radical Sunni Islam, 0:48:25.920 --> 0:48:29.759 radical Shia Islam. I don't get at all other than 0:48:29.760 --> 0:48:32.359 they were waiting for the hidden in mom to come 0:48:32.360 --> 0:48:35.640 out of the well. Why in the world do they 0:48:35.680 --> 0:48:39.640 support Hamas and why are the Jews so central to 0:48:39.680 --> 0:48:42.240 their theology? Do you have any idea? 0:48:42.840 --> 0:48:47.920 It's extraordinary, It's an extraordinary thing in Sunni Islam. I 0:48:48.760 --> 0:48:51.680 any Muslims listening to us will know this, or if 0:48:51.680 --> 0:48:53.440 they don't, they should look it up because they should 0:48:53.440 --> 0:48:56.040 know this, and anyone else please fact check it. In 0:48:56.120 --> 0:49:02.160 Sunni Islam, the most widespread tradition is that alaksa on 0:49:02.200 --> 0:49:04.400 the which translates to the thing at the edge in 0:49:04.440 --> 0:49:07.600 Hebrew Kotse the place Muhammad goes to at the end 0:49:07.640 --> 0:49:09.480 of his life and sends to Heaven. 0:49:09.880 --> 0:49:11.640 That place is Jerusalem. 0:49:11.680 --> 0:49:14.800 That is a widespread sunny tradition, not the only sunny tradition, 0:49:14.800 --> 0:49:19.000 but nonetheless wise in Shia Islam, Alaksa is not in Jerusalem. 0:49:19.040 --> 0:49:21.520 It is simply not. There is no Shia tradition of that. 0:49:22.080 --> 0:49:22.920 It is in Iraq. 0:49:23.560 --> 0:49:27.080 And the whole idea that this regime has created has 0:49:27.120 --> 0:49:30.640 has sort of latched onto this sunny vision. It's an 0:49:30.680 --> 0:49:35.600 attempt to create a political argument for Iranian leadership of 0:49:35.640 --> 0:49:39.600 the Muslim world. And Iran's leadership also saw its its 0:49:39.600 --> 0:49:44.320 own attempt to destroy Israel and building out these proxies 0:49:44.320 --> 0:49:46.759 with tens of billions of dollars over forty years that 0:49:46.840 --> 0:49:50.640 Iran's Iranians didn't have. But the spending on kesbealand the 0:49:50.640 --> 0:49:53.000 proxies in Iraq and Syria, and the Huthis of Yemen 0:49:53.200 --> 0:49:55.800 and every en Kamas and huge spending on Kamas, hundreds 0:49:55.800 --> 0:49:58.640 of millions of dollars at least, all of this investment 0:49:58.719 --> 0:50:01.160 in the proxy system to destroy Israel was essentially a 0:50:01.200 --> 0:50:05.320 Shia argument in the Muslim world. You Sunnis have failed 0:50:05.320 --> 0:50:08.000 to destroy Israel for a century. You have, you know, 0:50:08.160 --> 0:50:11.560 embarrassed Islam. In that sense, we will succeed and that 0:50:11.640 --> 0:50:15.719 will be evidence that Shia Islam is correct. That's the 0:50:15.960 --> 0:50:18.959 kind of stuff you actually get when you drill down 0:50:19.000 --> 0:50:23.279 into it, when you actually listen to an interview on 0:50:23.400 --> 0:50:26.400 Al Jazeera or whatever with an Iranian Ayatola, and you 0:50:26.480 --> 0:50:29.120 actually try and get into why do you want to 0:50:29.160 --> 0:50:31.400 destroy us? I'm not saying why you don't like his 0:50:31.520 --> 0:50:32.440 El you don't like Israel? 0:50:32.440 --> 0:50:32.799 You know what? 0:50:32.920 --> 0:50:35.319 You cannot like France too? Who cares like not? Why 0:50:35.360 --> 0:50:38.040 don't you like Israel? Why are you invested to the 0:50:38.120 --> 0:50:42.600 point of gutting your own economy with this obsession of 0:50:42.640 --> 0:50:44.799 the destruction of a country you have no border with 0:50:44.880 --> 0:50:45.880 and no interests in. 0:50:46.320 --> 0:50:47.000 What is that? 0:50:47.560 --> 0:50:51.320 And you very quickly discover it isn't actually Shia Islam. 0:50:51.719 --> 0:50:57.000 It is Islam. It's an Islamic veneer on an imperialist 0:50:57.160 --> 0:51:00.760 project that's meant to force the Sunnis to rally behind 0:51:00.800 --> 0:51:01.760 the Iranians. 0:51:02.120 --> 0:51:02.720 That's it. 0:51:02.719 --> 0:51:06.239 It's a regional control. There's someone that developed back in 0:51:06.280 --> 0:51:07.640 the seventies and sixties. 0:51:08.400 --> 0:51:12.000 Oh that makes you just gave me at least a 0:51:12.120 --> 0:51:16.400 narrative to understand, because I can go find a Sunni 0:51:16.480 --> 0:51:20.520 extremists imm preaching on the internet the destruction of Israel 0:51:20.800 --> 0:51:23.239 in about ten minutes, and it's whether it's Isis or 0:51:23.280 --> 0:51:27.960 whether it is Al Qaido, whether it's any of their 0:51:27.960 --> 0:51:31.360 offshoot groups around the world, But I can't find Shia 0:51:31.680 --> 0:51:36.120 im Mom's. They're supposed to be almost as peaceful as 0:51:36.120 --> 0:51:39.560 another branch of Islam, the third branch which is eluding 0:51:39.600 --> 0:51:42.719 me right now, the one that's very, very peaceful. When 0:51:42.760 --> 0:51:46.200 did that? Why don't we know that? Is there no 0:51:46.239 --> 0:51:52.280 effort to expose what the Shia pretenders are that Israel 0:51:52.360 --> 0:51:55.040 and the United States are undertaking. Is there any effort 0:51:55.080 --> 0:51:58.840 to put that message out there to do legitimize the regime? 0:52:04.120 --> 0:52:07.960 Sheia have in the Muslim world a long tradition of 0:52:08.000 --> 0:52:12.520 being oppressed by the Sunnis, and so the Shia have 0:52:12.600 --> 0:52:16.160 developed a much less It's weird for me to, like, 0:52:16.360 --> 0:52:18.759 you know, fly the flag of the Shia right now. 0:52:18.840 --> 0:52:21.840 I mean, the greatest force trying to annihilate my people 0:52:21.880 --> 0:52:24.880 at this moment is a Shia political force. But nevertheless, 0:52:25.520 --> 0:52:30.960 the Shia have been less aggressive, less conquering, belligerent, you know, 0:52:31.000 --> 0:52:36.040 colonialist and imperialists than Sunni's overall over fourteenth centuries. I'm 0:52:36.080 --> 0:52:39.000 not singling out any particular people or group or time, 0:52:39.320 --> 0:52:41.759 but in general, the Shia have been the oppressed and 0:52:41.840 --> 0:52:44.719 are much more, much less committed to a kind of 0:52:44.760 --> 0:52:48.040 conquering vision of Islam than the Sunnis. So the Muslim 0:52:48.040 --> 0:52:50.960 Brotherhood vision of the takeover, of getting back to the 0:52:51.000 --> 0:52:53.160 takeover of the world, that's. 0:52:52.960 --> 0:52:55.839 A Sunny project and doesn't really make sense. 0:52:55.840 --> 0:52:59.560 And she is at until really Kromieni and Romiani who 0:52:59.600 --> 0:53:03.960 found it, this Iranian version of Sheism, this political Sheism. 0:53:04.320 --> 0:53:06.720 So just in general, if you go to the Shia 0:53:06.760 --> 0:53:10.560 of Lebanon, until they were radicalized by vast Iranian money 0:53:10.719 --> 0:53:15.719 through chrisbela Iranian shea excuse me, Lebanese Shia were a 0:53:15.840 --> 0:53:18.960 quiet group. They were not on the warpath. They did 0:53:18.960 --> 0:53:22.960 not conduct you know, conquest and massacres. It's similar for 0:53:23.000 --> 0:53:25.200 the Alo whites of Syria who are sort. 0:53:25.040 --> 0:53:27.799 Of thinking of the Sufis. I couldn't. I couldn't come 0:53:27.840 --> 0:53:30.279 up with the name of the Sufis. They're the very 0:53:30.600 --> 0:53:34.720 pacifist branch of Islam. If I am remembering my Lewis correctly, 0:53:34.760 --> 0:53:37.719 But Shia was not was not Wahabist. 0:53:41.000 --> 0:53:43.600 Yeah, Shia have never been Wahabists. 0:53:43.680 --> 0:53:47.319 All the Wahabism, all of the Muslim Brotherhood stuff, all 0:53:47.320 --> 0:53:49.759 the stuff you get out of you know, the al 0:53:49.840 --> 0:53:53.960 Qaeda stuff, the the Saib and all of that stuff 0:53:54.000 --> 0:53:57.719 all happened in Sunnism. All this radicalizing of Islam in 0:53:57.760 --> 0:54:00.839 the modern age happened in Sundism, and the Shia were 0:54:00.960 --> 0:54:04.400 very late to the game. And Komeni basically brought in 0:54:04.560 --> 0:54:06.520 a lot of these ideas and a lot of these 0:54:06.560 --> 0:54:08.359 ways of thinking and talking and gave it as Shia 0:54:08.440 --> 0:54:11.600 vanir and she of vocabulary. But he basically did that 0:54:11.640 --> 0:54:13.320 as a power play to take over Iran. 0:54:13.400 --> 0:54:15.400 That was the idea. 0:54:16.600 --> 0:54:20.960 It's it's hard to understand this regime in Iran as 0:54:21.000 --> 0:54:24.319 a religious movement just because it refuses to act as one. 0:54:24.640 --> 0:54:28.239 It really is just about oppression and power. And when 0:54:28.239 --> 0:54:30.520 you actually go to meet the Shia and talk to 0:54:30.560 --> 0:54:35.520 Shia in Iraq, for example, you get a very ambiguous 0:54:35.680 --> 0:54:38.480 kind of relationship with this Sheism of Iran as this 0:54:38.920 --> 0:54:42.239 thing that isn't what Sheism always was. Even by the way, 0:54:42.280 --> 0:54:45.480 if Iran will support them in their great internal sectarian 0:54:45.520 --> 0:54:48.160 wars in Iraq against the Sunnis and the brutality of 0:54:48.160 --> 0:54:50.840 the Sunnis during Saddam's time and all of that. You 0:54:50.880 --> 0:54:54.000 can sometimes get an appreciation for this ally in Shia Iran, 0:54:54.360 --> 0:54:57.719 but you still don't see an Iraqi Shia in Lebaneshia, 0:54:57.880 --> 0:55:01.680 in Syrian Shia, and frankly, Tilda Hui's in Yemenishia. You 0:55:01.760 --> 0:55:06.240 don't see that kind of aggression that the Iranians introduced 0:55:06.280 --> 0:55:09.000 into Shia politics. And so the Iranians took over and 0:55:09.080 --> 0:55:12.319 kind of reframed Shia politics in the Middle East in 0:55:12.360 --> 0:55:16.840 a way that has demolished frankly, every Shia polity or 0:55:16.840 --> 0:55:19.279 every polity does a large population of Shia Iran has 0:55:19.320 --> 0:55:23.080 been a disastrous curse on the Shia Sunnez of the 0:55:23.120 --> 0:55:25.120 Arab world and Persia itself. 0:55:25.680 --> 0:55:28.560 I'm going to talk to Aviv a little bit off air. 0:55:28.640 --> 0:55:32.319 I'll add it to the podcast today, but please don't 0:55:32.360 --> 0:55:35.040 go anywhere, stay on the radio station or on the 0:55:35.040 --> 0:55:35.799 television station. 0:55:35.880 --> 0:55:37.040 But I'll add the last. 0:55:36.840 --> 0:55:38.759 Bit of the lea to the podcast right back on 0:55:38.840 --> 0:55:42.520 the podcast Down with Aviv, Reddy Gore and Avivan Commentary Today, 0:55:42.600 --> 0:55:45.440 John pod Hoortz Exit question was on a scale after 0:55:45.480 --> 0:55:48.480 President Trump put up his post this morning, on a 0:55:48.520 --> 0:55:50.759 scale of one to ten, what do you think the 0:55:50.840 --> 0:55:54.000 United States will do? With one being nothing and ten 0:55:54.120 --> 0:55:59.120 being anything necessary to Maduro Hamini go in and grab 0:55:59.200 --> 0:56:02.439 him and kill the him and get them and four 0:56:02.480 --> 0:56:06.200 out of five people set a six with some fireworks 0:56:06.200 --> 0:56:08.680 spectacular that we can see. John Potterwartz said at eight 0:56:09.440 --> 0:56:12.279 he thought we're going all in because they're as weak 0:56:12.320 --> 0:56:14.360 as they've ever been. But it occurred to me, as 0:56:14.400 --> 0:56:16.920 I listened to the commentary podcast and Eli Lake knows 0:56:17.040 --> 0:56:20.640 his Iran history, it occurs to me that really depends 0:56:20.719 --> 0:56:22.719 upon the people of Iran and how they react of 0:56:22.800 --> 0:56:26.520 being shot down. I mean, it really is merciless. So 0:56:26.880 --> 0:56:30.240 we saw in Israel on ten to seven the Israelis 0:56:30.280 --> 0:56:32.399 fight back with their bare hands, rocks and whatever they could. 0:56:32.400 --> 0:56:34.560 They kept throwing grenades out of their bomb shelters, and 0:56:34.600 --> 0:56:36.640 then they went to war, and the war's not over yet. 0:56:37.000 --> 0:56:39.240 What do you think the average Iranian in the eighty 0:56:39.280 --> 0:56:42.240 percent does? Now, I'm asking you to be a prophet, 0:56:42.239 --> 0:56:45.120 and I know it's unfair, but you've studied what happens 0:56:45.160 --> 0:56:48.200 when people are they have no hope. They have no money, 0:56:48.200 --> 0:56:49.920 they have no water, what do they do? 0:56:52.800 --> 0:56:56.120 This regime has done nothing for forty seven years. The 0:56:56.239 --> 0:57:01.120 demolished other power center in Iran with the Communists, and 0:57:01.160 --> 0:57:05.680 after the Iran Iraq War, it massacred the communists. It 0:57:05.719 --> 0:57:09.480 has has systematically gone through Iranian society and degraded and 0:57:09.480 --> 0:57:11.839 demolished anyone who could replace them, so that even if 0:57:11.840 --> 0:57:14.600 a revolution does come, there's nobody to lead it and 0:57:14.680 --> 0:57:17.760 there's no power center, single power center, that can actually 0:57:17.760 --> 0:57:20.040 see it through. That's what makes this moment so dangerous 0:57:20.040 --> 0:57:22.240 to the regime. That the Bazaris are such a power. 0:57:22.280 --> 0:57:25.680 If the interests of the basic you know, economic backbone 0:57:25.800 --> 0:57:29.160 of the capital and of the major cities of Iran 0:57:29.560 --> 0:57:32.600 are the uprising, then the Iranian regime has a problem 0:57:32.600 --> 0:57:34.600 because there is a kind of power base. It still 0:57:34.600 --> 0:57:35.920 doesn't have a clear leadership. 0:57:36.120 --> 0:57:36.720 It's still not. 0:57:36.720 --> 0:57:40.440 Clear who actually makes the decision steps in. This regime 0:57:40.520 --> 0:57:42.480 has a lot of bodies it's willing to go through. 0:57:42.520 --> 0:57:44.600 I mean in the hundreds of thousands, as we said, 0:57:45.520 --> 0:57:50.880 before it falls. So I would say two things. One, 0:57:51.760 --> 0:57:54.840 it looks like Iranians don't think anything will ever get better. 0:57:55.400 --> 0:57:57.600 It looks like the regime has managed to convince most 0:57:57.680 --> 0:58:01.240 Iranians of that, and that it's very dangerous for the 0:58:01.280 --> 0:58:03.360 regime because people have to have a reason, they have 0:58:03.360 --> 0:58:05.760 to have something to lose. It doesn't look like they 0:58:05.800 --> 0:58:08.439 think that they have something to lose. And I'll say 0:58:08.480 --> 0:58:11.440 a huge compliment to President Trump in that regard. I 0:58:11.560 --> 0:58:14.800 have no idea what President Trump is going to do. 0:58:15.080 --> 0:58:18.280 He bombed Iran while pretending to be considering not bombing 0:58:18.320 --> 0:58:24.880 Iran by lighting the planes. Everybody in Venezuela didn't predict it. 0:58:24.960 --> 0:58:26.920 Not only didn't predict it, the signals were going in 0:58:27.000 --> 0:58:29.480 all different directions in the last three days, President and 0:58:29.520 --> 0:58:31.880 Trump has said he's going to negotiation and also not 0:58:31.920 --> 0:58:35.240 going to negotiation. That is exactly how you should behave 0:58:35.360 --> 0:58:37.400 if you're about to demolish something, if you're about to 0:58:37.440 --> 0:58:40.160 take them down, and also just if you're terrifying them 0:58:40.200 --> 0:58:44.360 into overreacting, which itself could be the destabilizing factor that 0:58:44.440 --> 0:58:48.200 throws them out of power. So President Trump, inasmuch as 0:58:48.240 --> 0:58:50.960 an American president can affect this, and there's quite a 0:58:50.960 --> 0:58:53.560 bit he can do, but you know, it's not his decision. 0:58:53.600 --> 0:58:56.960 In the end, He's not the factor. But he's basically 0:58:57.000 --> 0:59:00.240 done everything right so far, and saying both sides of 0:59:00.280 --> 0:59:02.960 the thing. Saying something and then the opposite thing is 0:59:03.000 --> 0:59:07.360 a fantastic strategy with this regime, especially after Maduro, especially 0:59:07.440 --> 0:59:08.480 after Midnight Hammer. 0:59:08.560 --> 0:59:10.160 So I think. 0:59:09.960 --> 0:59:12.400 America is in the right place, basically positioned to help 0:59:12.440 --> 0:59:15.480 without being the leadership of this thing. The Iranian people 0:59:15.560 --> 0:59:18.560 will bleed a lot more before this regime dies. If 0:59:18.600 --> 0:59:21.240 this is suppressed, they'll be a bigger and worse one 0:59:21.320 --> 0:59:23.720 because there's nothing in this regime that's capable of turning 0:59:23.720 --> 0:59:26.000 Iran around and setting it on a better path. 0:59:26.880 --> 0:59:30.760 So very last question, we saw what the IDF and 0:59:30.880 --> 0:59:34.000 Mosad can do. Now, I'm not one of those Americans 0:59:34.040 --> 0:59:38.160 that think Masad is thirty stories tall, but I was 0:59:38.200 --> 0:59:42.160 pretty impressed by the Beeper operation and by the takeout 0:59:42.400 --> 0:59:46.720 of the people in Cutter and the people in Tehran. Obviously, 0:59:47.040 --> 0:59:50.280 Israel has got operatives on the ground in Iran, but 0:59:50.320 --> 0:59:53.400 there aren't enough Israelis. Even if they do to actually 0:59:53.480 --> 0:59:55.600 take them out. Do you think they will follow the 0:59:55.640 --> 0:59:59.440 American lead here act independent of it? And the key question, 1:00:00.120 --> 1:00:03.360 if Iran gets scared, they're going to throw ballistic missiles 1:00:03.360 --> 1:00:06.560 at your country. That's what they did. They've done that 1:00:06.720 --> 1:00:09.480 four times now, once against America and three times against you. 1:00:10.080 --> 1:00:12.280 What do you think Israel's reaction. I don't think I 1:00:12.320 --> 1:00:15.520 personally don't think Israel will hold back this time. What 1:00:15.640 --> 1:00:16.480 do you think. 1:00:19.600 --> 1:00:24.400 If Iroan forces, you know, revisiting of the Twelve Day War, 1:00:24.760 --> 1:00:27.360 I don't think Israel will be able to contain. I 1:00:27.360 --> 1:00:29.760 think I think this will be the end. I think, 1:00:29.800 --> 1:00:32.640 first of all, Ron will Be will need there to 1:00:32.720 --> 1:00:35.480 be a serious war with Israel as a distraction, as 1:00:35.520 --> 1:00:39.680 an excuse to crack down more viciously internally, as a 1:00:39.680 --> 1:00:42.160 stabilizing force, and I think the Israelis will have to 1:00:42.200 --> 1:00:43.600 deny them both those things. 1:00:43.760 --> 1:00:44.440 They'll have to have. 1:00:44.400 --> 1:00:47.000 A war where the regime really is destabilized. I'd be 1:00:47.040 --> 1:00:49.680 very surprised if he many survives or if his son, 1:00:49.720 --> 1:00:52.480 who is sort of being groomed to replace some survives. 1:00:52.760 --> 1:00:56.760 This will be something that really does does cause terrible 1:00:56.840 --> 1:00:59.720 damage to the Iranian regime. But the Israelis would be 1:00:59.720 --> 1:01:02.680 why is to respond in a way that looks visibly 1:01:02.760 --> 1:01:05.520 like it's trying to avoid hurting the people of Iran, 1:01:06.240 --> 1:01:08.960 And so you know, it's quite likely that Ronald drag 1:01:09.040 --> 1:01:13.800 us all into a rerun of that war essentially. At 1:01:13.840 --> 1:01:16.840 the same time, it needs to be handled very wisely, 1:01:17.000 --> 1:01:20.120 because it really is the Iranian people who can topple 1:01:20.160 --> 1:01:22.840 this regime, and it has to look like it's then 1:01:22.880 --> 1:01:25.080 toppling the regime, and that allows us all kind of 1:01:25.080 --> 1:01:29.720 post revolution stability. If they can't, just if it isn't 1:01:29.880 --> 1:01:32.640 doesn't appear to be some American or Israeli project, the 1:01:32.680 --> 1:01:35.640 regime will claim that anyway. It told us, any Islamist 1:01:35.680 --> 1:01:39.120 factions will claim that anyway. But most Iranians have to 1:01:39.160 --> 1:01:41.400 know that it's not what's happening, and then it can 1:01:41.440 --> 1:01:42.160 actually happen. 1:01:43.240 --> 1:01:45.720 Well said, as always, Aviv, I thank you for the 1:01:45.800 --> 1:01:50.920 extra time today Again, find ask Aviv anything wherever podcasts are, 1:01:51.000 --> 1:01:53.720 support them on Patreon, read them in the free press, 1:01:53.760 --> 1:01:57.440 razors senior analysts, and occasionally at the times of Israel. Aviv, 1:01:57.520 --> 1:01:59.320 thank you taught to you in a few weeks or months. 1:01:59.320 --> 1:02:00.360 I appreciate the time. 1:02:01.440 --> 1:02:01.800 Thank you. 1:02:03.240 --> 1:02:05.360 Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett. As you heard 1:02:05.360 --> 1:02:07.840 me say at the beginning of the show, the biggest 1:02:07.840 --> 1:02:10.440 story in the world is what's going on in Iran 1:02:10.840 --> 1:02:14.480 and I know we are all have our favorite interesting stories, 1:02:14.520 --> 1:02:16.400 and I cover the news as it breaks, but the 1:02:16.440 --> 1:02:19.400 biggest story in the world is in Iran. For forty 1:02:19.400 --> 1:02:22.120 seven years that tyranny has been in place, and for 1:02:22.160 --> 1:02:25.160 almost as long, the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy has 1:02:25.200 --> 1:02:28.520 been working to bring it down and free the people 1:02:28.720 --> 1:02:31.480 of Iran. Joining us now is the CEO of the 1:02:31.520 --> 1:02:34.440 Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, Mark Dubovitz, who has 1:02:34.480 --> 1:02:37.760 been on with me before. He did a great podcast 1:02:37.800 --> 1:02:41.280 series last year on Iran, which are twelve parts. He 1:02:41.320 --> 1:02:45.760 added another part this weekend called Iran Breakdown. I recommend 1:02:45.760 --> 1:02:48.280 it to you. Mark. Welcome. Let me start with a 1:02:48.320 --> 1:02:50.680 big what's your reaction to what's happened over the last 1:02:50.680 --> 1:02:51.640 two weeks in a day? 1:02:53.040 --> 1:02:54.960 Well, Hugh, thanks so much for having me on. Look here, 1:02:54.960 --> 1:02:55.720 it's extraordinary. 1:02:55.760 --> 1:02:57.640 I mean, as you said, I've been working on Iran 1:02:57.720 --> 1:03:02.080 for twenty two years, working with lots of administrations, including 1:03:02.320 --> 1:03:05.840 the Trump administration, both both Trump administrations on maximum pressure 1:03:05.880 --> 1:03:08.760 on the regime but also encouraging maximum support for the 1:03:08.760 --> 1:03:10.640 Iranian people and the Radiom people have been out on 1:03:10.680 --> 1:03:13.640 the streets since two thousand and nine, repeatedly calling for 1:03:13.760 --> 1:03:18.640 death to the dictator and the Islamic Republic establish relations 1:03:18.680 --> 1:03:21.680 with America, with Israel, and now in the past two 1:03:21.720 --> 1:03:24.880 weeks they've taken to the streets. Millions of Iranians are 1:03:25.160 --> 1:03:28.200 on those streets, but they're also getting mowed down by 1:03:28.200 --> 1:03:31.600 the security forces. Thousands of Iranians have been slaughtered, Tens 1:03:31.640 --> 1:03:36.360 of thousands have been arrested, tortured, and dozens executed. 1:03:36.480 --> 1:03:39.080 So it is a pivotal moment for the United States, 1:03:39.520 --> 1:03:40.720 for Iran, for the region. 1:03:41.720 --> 1:03:45.120 So I've stressed in my audience they can't trust what 1:03:45.160 --> 1:03:47.960 they see on X unless they know that the person 1:03:48.040 --> 1:03:50.720 on X is someone they can trust. They can trust 1:03:50.760 --> 1:03:54.760 you and trust Cliff may Kareem Sawd you pour at Carnegie, 1:03:54.880 --> 1:03:57.480 You've got a lot of colleagues at FDD. I'm pushing out, 1:03:57.880 --> 1:04:00.800 how do you tell if you're just you know, nubie 1:04:00.960 --> 1:04:04.040 to the Iran issue, who to trust on this about 1:04:04.080 --> 1:04:07.640 what's going on there? Since the regime's severed outside world 1:04:07.760 --> 1:04:10.880 contact with the people of Tehran and across all of Iran. 1:04:12.320 --> 1:04:14.600 Yeah, I mean here, listen, it's difficult to know what's 1:04:14.600 --> 1:04:16.200 going on the ground because, as you said, they've shut 1:04:16.240 --> 1:04:16.840 down the internet. 1:04:16.880 --> 1:04:18.720 They're interfering with starlink access. 1:04:19.160 --> 1:04:22.520 Videos are still coming in and we're certainly seeing what's 1:04:22.520 --> 1:04:23.680 happening on the ground. 1:04:23.960 --> 1:04:24.800 What do I trust? 1:04:24.800 --> 1:04:27.800 Look, I don't trust anybody defending the regime number one. 1:04:28.080 --> 1:04:31.320 Number two, I don't trust anybody saying that US intervention 1:04:31.440 --> 1:04:33.160 is going to lead to some kind of rally around 1:04:33.160 --> 1:04:36.000 the flag. The notion that millions of Iranians are on 1:04:36.040 --> 1:04:39.320 the streets and they're getting mowed down by the security forces, 1:04:39.320 --> 1:04:43.200 but somehow, with President Trump intervenes and goes against the regime, 1:04:43.360 --> 1:04:45.720 these Iranians are going to defend the regime, I think 1:04:45.800 --> 1:04:48.960 is nonsense. So anybody's saying that should not be trusted. 1:04:49.240 --> 1:04:52.040 I think a lot of good Iranian voices, my colleagues said, 1:04:52.080 --> 1:04:54.880 got Samanajad certainly Resipolovy. 1:04:55.040 --> 1:04:56.080 I mean, he's all over. 1:04:55.920 --> 1:04:58.760 Social media, the crown Prince, the son of the former Shaw. 1:04:59.360 --> 1:05:03.480 He is been very articulate, and I certainly would trust 1:05:03.760 --> 1:05:05.000 many of the things that he's saying. 1:05:05.720 --> 1:05:09.000 Okay, now let's talk about what the president can do. 1:05:09.080 --> 1:05:12.520 He was my guest last Thursday, and he said, very bluntly, 1:05:12.880 --> 1:05:15.520 will hit him very very hard if they kill people. 1:05:15.560 --> 1:05:17.640 But he also gave him a little bit of an 1:05:17.640 --> 1:05:20.520 out he said some of these deaths were because of stampede. 1:05:20.600 --> 1:05:23.160 Later that night, he didn't use that out with Sean 1:05:23.200 --> 1:05:25.880 Hannity as much, and it's been totally abandoned by Sunday night. 1:05:26.200 --> 1:05:28.200 The president now knows there are thousands of people dead. 1:05:28.240 --> 1:05:31.919 I'm sure we've confirmed that to him. What could he do, 1:05:32.240 --> 1:05:35.680 in your view that would be most effective in fraeing Iran? 1:05:37.240 --> 1:05:38.520 So I think there are number of things he can do. 1:05:38.560 --> 1:05:41.680 I mean, first of all is to target the security 1:05:41.680 --> 1:05:44.280 forces that are actually engaged in this brutal repression. 1:05:44.680 --> 1:05:46.520 Go after the repression apparatus. 1:05:46.520 --> 1:05:49.400 And you could do that through offensive cyber and or 1:05:49.440 --> 1:05:53.600 military strikes against the IOGC is on a Revolutionary Guard corps, 1:05:53.640 --> 1:05:56.480 the besiege, the police. 1:05:56.600 --> 1:05:59.000 These are the people that are engaged in this brutal repression. 1:05:59.400 --> 1:06:03.440 Number two is ready to reach out to Elon musk 1:06:03.920 --> 1:06:07.360 Is to try to restore or improve the starlink connection. 1:06:07.760 --> 1:06:10.320 So these videos are coming out Iranians right now, being 1:06:10.400 --> 1:06:13.760 murdered in the dark. They need to be brought to light, 1:06:14.160 --> 1:06:16.320 and that's very important. I think the presidents and Elon 1:06:16.440 --> 1:06:20.520 can do that. Number three, you know what, Premister Natanyahu 1:06:20.600 --> 1:06:23.120 and President Trump discussed at the end of December that 1:06:23.160 --> 1:06:27.240 you reported on you was the growing and reconstituting Iranian 1:06:27.280 --> 1:06:30.680 missile program, which is gonna represent a significant threat to 1:06:30.760 --> 1:06:33.320 the United States and Israel as it gets rebuilt. 1:06:33.320 --> 1:06:36.480 The Israelis are gonna go take it out. I think 1:06:36.520 --> 1:06:38.000 better the United States takes it out. 1:06:38.040 --> 1:06:41.360 Because of the United States takes out the missile program, Kamine, 1:06:41.520 --> 1:06:44.320 the Supreme Leader Baran is gonna be quite reluctant to 1:06:44.400 --> 1:06:47.240 respond because he knows that if he attacks the United States. 1:06:47.200 --> 1:06:48.360 That's the end of his regime. 1:06:48.480 --> 1:06:50.480 If Israelis take it out, it's going to lead to 1:06:50.560 --> 1:06:53.640 another round around the fire, hundreds of not thousands of 1:06:53.640 --> 1:06:55.960 ballistic missiles at Israel, and we're going to be in 1:06:56.040 --> 1:06:58.560 a major war in the United States. And President Trump's 1:06:58.560 --> 1:07:01.000 gonna have to deal with that. And Trump, if he 1:07:01.040 --> 1:07:04.960 has the opportunity, take out those dangerous ballistic missiles. Support 1:07:04.960 --> 1:07:09.280 the people, unlock the communications, go after the regime apparatus. 1:07:09.840 --> 1:07:12.439 Mark, This is a difficult question for anyone to answer, 1:07:12.520 --> 1:07:15.400 but you'll know if anybody knows. I heard Kareem today 1:07:15.600 --> 1:07:18.160 in a podcast with Dan Senor say that the IRGC 1:07:18.320 --> 1:07:20.720 is one hundred and fifty thousand strong. All right, i'rn 1:07:20.880 --> 1:07:24.720 ninety million people ten percent, nine million people, one percent 1:07:24.760 --> 1:07:27.520 of nine hundred thousand people. So one hundred and fifty 1:07:27.640 --> 1:07:32.120 thousand IERGC members. That's a third of one percent. How 1:07:32.480 --> 1:07:37.760 hard is it to overthrow one hundred and fifty thousand thugs. 1:07:37.960 --> 1:07:39.880 It's a lot of thugs. They got a lot of guns. 1:07:39.880 --> 1:07:41.760 There are any other guns in the Irun. But that's 1:07:41.800 --> 1:07:46.440 not a big police state. It's a relatively small, isn't it. 1:07:47.760 --> 1:07:49.800 Well, there's one hundred and fifty thousand IERGC. 1:07:50.080 --> 1:07:53.040 There's probably two to three million members of the Basiege, 1:07:53.080 --> 1:07:56.200 which is their militia. Those are the thugs that drive 1:07:56.240 --> 1:08:01.160 around in motorcycles and beat up and and torture and 1:08:01.240 --> 1:08:03.760 kill Iranians. So you've got a couple of million there, 1:08:04.280 --> 1:08:07.920 and they're also importing thoughts from Iraq. This is the 1:08:08.160 --> 1:08:11.480 Iraqi Hazbala and the Schiait militias that they're bringing in, 1:08:11.800 --> 1:08:14.880 bringing in Arabs to kill Persians because in some cases 1:08:15.200 --> 1:08:17.760 the security forces throwing to turn their guns on their 1:08:17.800 --> 1:08:21.599 own people. So the regime's apparatus is formidable. But you're right, listen, 1:08:21.640 --> 1:08:24.280 I mean, there's ninety two million Iranians, and if ten 1:08:24.280 --> 1:08:28.240 percent came to the street, they could overwhelm the security forces. 1:08:28.520 --> 1:08:31.880 And certainly some of them are armed, particularly some of 1:08:31.880 --> 1:08:34.439 the Kurdish groups, the Baluchis and others. 1:08:34.479 --> 1:08:37.080 So I think that's that's certainly a potential. 1:08:37.760 --> 1:08:41.479 So, Mark, you're not old enough to remember the actual revolution. 1:08:41.720 --> 1:08:43.960 I watched it in real time with Ray Price and 1:08:44.040 --> 1:08:47.280 Richard Nixon and San Clementy my second job out of college. 1:08:48.040 --> 1:08:51.439 People marched in the daytime. Then do you expect anti 1:08:51.520 --> 1:08:55.559 regime marches to occur in the daytime? Yeah, they are. 1:08:55.640 --> 1:08:57.719 They're occurring in the daytime, they occurring in the nighttime. 1:08:57.960 --> 1:08:59.759 I mean, what I'm. 1:08:59.160 --> 1:09:01.919 Worried about you is that if there's no US intervention, 1:09:02.439 --> 1:09:04.519 that these protests are going to die off because of 1:09:04.520 --> 1:09:07.200 the brutal repression. And whether it's day or night, the 1:09:07.960 --> 1:09:11.320 guns are being turned on Iranians, thousands are being slaughtered. 1:09:11.360 --> 1:09:13.760 At some point, they're just going to have to They're 1:09:13.760 --> 1:09:15.880 going to stay home. And if they stay home, the 1:09:15.920 --> 1:09:17.920 regime is going to come out of this. Yes, a 1:09:17.920 --> 1:09:21.600 wounded animal, but a bitter one, a lethal one, a 1:09:21.680 --> 1:09:22.760 much more dangerous one. 1:09:22.800 --> 1:09:25.080 And I'd be worried that Orion's would never go back. 1:09:24.960 --> 1:09:25.559 On the streets. 1:09:26.520 --> 1:09:30.160 Follow Mark on exit, M Dubovitch. Follow everyone at FDD. 1:09:30.360 --> 1:09:33.840 At FDD, Mark is coming back next hour. So other 1:09:33.880 --> 1:09:37.719 than my drivetime audience in the inside the Beltway, here's 1:09:37.720 --> 1:09:39.960 them for six minutes to repeat a lot of this. 1:09:40.120 --> 1:09:42.840 So make sure you listen to those segments of my 1:09:42.880 --> 1:09:46.879 interview with Mark Dubovitch and follow him. Welcome back in America. 1:09:46.920 --> 1:09:49.800 Coming up after the break. Sebastian lie son of Jimmy Lai, 1:09:49.920 --> 1:09:52.320 is going to join me this hour. This segment though, 1:09:52.680 --> 1:09:55.599 I'm bringing back Mark Dubovitch, who is with us last hour, 1:09:55.800 --> 1:09:59.320 is the CEO of the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy. 1:09:59.400 --> 1:10:02.040 Is one of the actual people you can trust on Iran. 1:10:02.600 --> 1:10:05.559 Follow them on exit, M Dubovitch. Follow everyone at the 1:10:05.560 --> 1:10:08.800 Foundation for the Defensive Democracies, and there are a lot 1:10:08.840 --> 1:10:11.639 of them. There are half dozen Iran experts. The FDD 1:10:11.840 --> 1:10:15.160 is actually the go to place. Mark. When we ran 1:10:15.200 --> 1:10:16.840 out of time last hour, I wanted to ask you. 1:10:17.200 --> 1:10:20.280 President Trump mentioned on Air Force One last night that 1:10:20.320 --> 1:10:23.200 the regime wants to negotiate. My reaction is, God, no, 1:10:23.320 --> 1:10:25.720 don't do that. That they're just playing for time. Is 1:10:25.760 --> 1:10:26.519 that your reaction. 1:10:27.800 --> 1:10:30.400 Yeah, you absolutely. I mean this is a typical regime trick. 1:10:30.400 --> 1:10:32.960 They're back is against the walls. So they offer negotiations 1:10:33.320 --> 1:10:35.960 and try to trap American negotiators. And the only place 1:10:35.960 --> 1:10:38.519 where they tend to win against America is at the 1:10:38.560 --> 1:10:41.640 negotiating table. They won against Biden, they won against Obama, 1:10:41.800 --> 1:10:44.080 they think they could possibly win against President Trump. I 1:10:44.120 --> 1:10:46.240 think it'd be a big mistake to go back to 1:10:46.280 --> 1:10:48.960 the table fundamentally, because number one, it would be a 1:10:48.960 --> 1:10:51.040 betrayal of the Iranian people that are on the streets. 1:10:51.200 --> 1:10:53.960 And number two, Hugh, there's no way that Ali Khamenei, 1:10:54.040 --> 1:10:56.120 the Supreme leader of Iran, is going to meet the 1:10:56.200 --> 1:10:59.680 minimum demands that President Trump has a full dismantlement of 1:10:59.680 --> 1:11:03.120 their new clear missile programs and terror networks. 1:11:03.240 --> 1:11:04.840 No way Kamine is going to give into that. 1:11:04.960 --> 1:11:07.160 And if not, he's just going to play for time, 1:11:07.520 --> 1:11:10.280 try to divide America, try to divide the White House, 1:11:10.320 --> 1:11:12.720 try to divide the US from Europe. And he's going 1:11:12.800 --> 1:11:15.400 to ultimately try to embarrass the President. And I don't 1:11:15.400 --> 1:11:18.559 think the President is going to be embarrassed and is 1:11:18.600 --> 1:11:21.760 prepared to be embarrassed, So he needs to enforce the 1:11:21.800 --> 1:11:23.440 red line that he laid out. 1:11:24.040 --> 1:11:27.760 Now, Mark, the Israelis could have killed Hamione, and no 1:11:27.800 --> 1:11:30.160 doubt we can kill Hamione, but there are arguments on 1:11:30.240 --> 1:11:33.200 both sides. We to leave him alive or we do 1:11:33.280 --> 1:11:36.000 if we have the ability to have him shot killed. 1:11:37.720 --> 1:11:40.800 Well, I do think we need to decapitate the leadership 1:11:40.880 --> 1:11:45.520 of Iran, and that includes Kamene, but also includes senior 1:11:45.920 --> 1:11:50.879 IRGC commanders, those who are in control of the command 1:11:51.000 --> 1:11:55.440 and control system of Iran, and that includes the repression apparatus. 1:11:55.800 --> 1:11:59.600 So yeah, if you decapitate the leadership, then this possibility 1:11:59.600 --> 1:12:01.640 of other stepping into their place. I mean, that's what 1:12:01.760 --> 1:12:04.920 President Trump did in Venezuela with Maduro. I think there's 1:12:05.000 --> 1:12:08.920 more than just Kaminae. There are others, but certainly decapitation 1:12:09.439 --> 1:12:11.360 effort should be seriously considered. 1:12:11.840 --> 1:12:15.440 All right, Now, Mark, what are the How many IRGC 1:12:15.680 --> 1:12:19.280 bases are there? How many besiege bases? The final Israeli 1:12:19.400 --> 1:12:22.240 wave was going to hit them. President Trump waved it 1:12:22.280 --> 1:12:24.240 off in order to bring that conflict to an end 1:12:24.360 --> 1:12:27.479 last June. How many target sites are we talking about? 1:12:29.479 --> 1:12:31.479 So there are, I mean there are dozens and dozens 1:12:31.479 --> 1:12:35.639 of RGC and besiege bases all around the country, obviously 1:12:35.680 --> 1:12:40.080 headquarters in places like Teylan, but certainly it's a target 1:12:40.120 --> 1:12:42.680 rich environment. I mean, the Israelis and the Americans have 1:12:42.960 --> 1:12:50.400 detailed intelligence on all of these bases, maneuvers, apparatus. This 1:12:50.520 --> 1:12:53.840 has been studied for years here, I mean particular by 1:12:53.880 --> 1:12:56.400 the Israelis, I mean MOSAD and military intelligence in Israel 1:12:56.520 --> 1:13:01.040 have a very, very large and expansive target set, and 1:13:01.080 --> 1:13:03.880 that information has been provided to the Americans. So there's 1:13:03.880 --> 1:13:06.000 no shortage of targets. Just the question of what President 1:13:06.000 --> 1:13:07.240 Trump will choose. 1:13:07.880 --> 1:13:11.439 If President Trump brings down this regime, I think he 1:13:11.560 --> 1:13:15.400 goes to the top of American presidents, at least since FDR. 1:13:15.800 --> 1:13:19.559 He's going to actually surpass Reagan. The Soviet Union, of course, 1:13:19.560 --> 1:13:22.800 dissolved under George H. W. Bush. How would you rank 1:13:22.840 --> 1:13:25.559 that achievement. I think Iran is a lynchpin, and I've 1:13:25.600 --> 1:13:28.519 got Nixon on the brain. Nixon used to say, it's everything, 1:13:28.520 --> 1:13:30.160 It's one of the two pillars of the Middle East. 1:13:30.280 --> 1:13:32.400 And so how big of a moment is this for 1:13:32.479 --> 1:13:33.080 Donald Trump? 1:13:34.320 --> 1:13:36.800 Yeah, I've said publicly here you know that that if 1:13:36.800 --> 1:13:38.840 he brings down the Islamic Republic of Iran, he will 1:13:38.880 --> 1:13:42.200 be one of the greatest foreign policy presidents in modern history, 1:13:42.439 --> 1:13:44.880 if not the greatest. I mean, the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1:13:44.920 --> 1:13:47.920 first of all, has killed and named thousands of Americans. 1:13:47.960 --> 1:13:51.200 It has created massive bloodshed and chaos in the Middle 1:13:51.200 --> 1:13:55.240 East and continue to drag us into these endless wars 1:13:55.280 --> 1:13:59.080 in the Middle East. It's sponsored terrorism globally. It's threatened 1:13:59.120 --> 1:14:01.439 to kill President Trump up and try to kill him, 1:14:01.760 --> 1:14:05.280 and it is try to build nuclear weapons. It has 1:14:05.320 --> 1:14:08.360 built a massive ballistic missile program. It's fired hundreds of 1:14:08.400 --> 1:14:11.599 those bulistic missiles at Israel, and missiles and drones at 1:14:11.600 --> 1:14:12.639 our allies in the Middle East. 1:14:12.680 --> 1:14:13.840 I mean, it has been such a. 1:14:13.680 --> 1:14:16.960 Force for murder, chaos, and violence that to get rid 1:14:16.960 --> 1:14:19.599 of it and to replace it with something better and 1:14:19.640 --> 1:14:22.800 more stable, more peaceful, and more prosperous would be a 1:14:22.800 --> 1:14:24.839 game changer for American national security. 1:14:24.960 --> 1:14:26.800 And by the way, it would also allow us. 1:14:26.760 --> 1:14:28.559 To do what we need to do, which is to 1:14:28.600 --> 1:14:31.519 focus our resources in the coming years on the multi 1:14:31.560 --> 1:14:33.960 generational threat from the communist Chinese Party. 1:14:34.400 --> 1:14:36.160 Now I read him here quote and he laughed, he said, 1:14:36.160 --> 1:14:38.599 haven't I already done that? He's done pretty well. I've 1:14:38.600 --> 1:14:41.320 got to admit ruining the Iranian nuclear to turn is 1:14:41.320 --> 1:14:44.080 a big deal. But do you think we could count 1:14:44.240 --> 1:14:49.800 on a post harmonious Harmonius regime being stable and at 1:14:49.880 --> 1:14:50.839 least not evil? 1:14:53.040 --> 1:14:55.120 Yeah, I mean Trump also did say that, he said 1:14:55.400 --> 1:14:57.280 I accept that. I accept that, and he's an a 1:14:57.360 --> 1:14:58.120 view with you, right. 1:14:58.160 --> 1:14:58.320 You know. 1:14:58.360 --> 1:15:02.240 I think he appreciates how important taking down Islamic Republic is, 1:15:02.280 --> 1:15:04.960 and I think he has for most of his adult life. 1:15:05.920 --> 1:15:07.720 I think we have got I don't think we can 1:15:07.760 --> 1:15:09.599 count on anything in the Middle East, and we certainly 1:15:09.840 --> 1:15:12.559 can't count on anything in geopolitics, but there's no doubt 1:15:12.560 --> 1:15:15.000 in my mind that whatever comes next will be much better. 1:15:15.880 --> 1:15:18.519 So everyone in your car go to FDD Foundation for 1:15:18.560 --> 1:15:22.439 the Defensive Democracies. Follow it at FDD, follow Mark at 1:15:22.600 --> 1:15:26.120 m Dubavitch, and there are lots of other people as well. 1:15:26.120 --> 1:15:29.160 But make sure they're reliable. Don't believe the regime propaganda. 1:15:29.200 --> 1:15:32.080 Don't believe the regime mythologists, don't believe people who supported 1:15:32.120 --> 1:15:37.720 the JCPOA, believe people like part Thank Morning or at 1:15:37.760 --> 1:15:40.600 Eating Grace America. I'm Hugh Hewittt on this Monday. As 1:15:40.640 --> 1:15:42.720 I've said throughout the show today, I think we're on 1:15:42.800 --> 1:15:47.200 the brink of a strike on Iran. But I don't 1:15:47.200 --> 1:15:49.479 know anything. I just read people who know things. One 1:15:49.479 --> 1:15:53.000 of them is bet him ben Talablu. Did I get 1:15:53.000 --> 1:15:55.280 it right? Bet him think because it's one of those 1:15:55.400 --> 1:15:58.080 names that always was going to trip me up forever? 1:15:58.240 --> 1:15:58.960 Did I get it right? 1:16:00.240 --> 1:16:00.559 To worry? 1:16:00.560 --> 1:16:02.439 Great? To be with you here? Yes, pretty close? 1:16:02.560 --> 1:16:05.479 Great, We got time. So I want to do a 1:16:05.520 --> 1:16:07.880 deep dive for the benefit of the audience where We've 1:16:07.920 --> 1:16:10.800 got lots of cameras in Minnesota and appropriately so, but 1:16:10.880 --> 1:16:14.080 not enough people are following with great specificity what is 1:16:14.120 --> 1:16:16.960 transpired in the aftermath of a massacre that is really 1:16:17.000 --> 1:16:20.800 without precedent in post war World War two. Do you 1:16:20.840 --> 1:16:23.040 agree with me on that it's bigger than Tianamen Square. 1:16:24.880 --> 1:16:25.120 Yes. 1:16:25.200 --> 1:16:29.559 Unfortunately, the reported estimates we keep getting keep growing. Now, 1:16:29.640 --> 1:16:32.760 thirty to thirty six thousand is a reported estimate. Yes, 1:16:32.800 --> 1:16:36.200 in terms of confirmed people, places, names, faces, it's about 1:16:36.200 --> 1:16:38.879 five to six thousand, depending on the human rights organization 1:16:38.960 --> 1:16:41.960 you choose. But those human rights organizations are steadily and 1:16:42.000 --> 1:16:46.320 busily looking from seventeen to nineteen thousand other cases right now. 1:16:46.360 --> 1:16:47.840 So if you again you take a bottom of the 1:16:47.920 --> 1:16:51.920 barrel assessment here it's twenty to thirty thousand plus. And again, 1:16:51.960 --> 1:16:54.160 this is not just yours truly as a member of 1:16:54.200 --> 1:16:56.759 the running diasp for saying this. This is CBS News, 1:16:56.760 --> 1:17:00.200 this is Iran International, this is Time magazine, and this 1:17:00.320 --> 1:17:03.760 is you know, Times of London. Everyone is coming to 1:17:03.760 --> 1:17:06.599 the same conclusion because they're looking at the same internal sources. 1:17:07.160 --> 1:17:09.400 And I'm going to come back and establish why people 1:17:09.400 --> 1:17:12.240 should listen very closely to you after I get the 1:17:12.360 --> 1:17:18.320 quick update our executions underway despite Donald Trump's red line. 1:17:20.360 --> 1:17:22.240 If you look at what's going on in Persian language 1:17:22.240 --> 1:17:24.600 social media, yes, indeed, And yet you don't have to 1:17:24.640 --> 1:17:27.439 take it for me. You can take it from Iranian officials, 1:17:27.439 --> 1:17:31.840 including someone from the judiciary who mocked actually President Trump 1:17:32.120 --> 1:17:35.439 for believing. Yet someone who also similarly mocked President Trump 1:17:35.439 --> 1:17:38.160 for believing that there was a stay of execution, or 1:17:38.200 --> 1:17:40.640 a pause of executions, or even just a kind of 1:17:40.680 --> 1:17:43.360 an about face on the repression altogether, was a former 1:17:43.720 --> 1:17:47.320 advisor to the Supreme Leader, mister Larry Johnny. These guys 1:17:47.320 --> 1:17:50.240 are like their brothers or the Kennedy family brothers popularly 1:17:50.280 --> 1:17:55.839 called in Iran, and this brother Mohammed Jabad. Larry Johnny 1:17:55.840 --> 1:18:00.639 in a recent Persian language talk show had actually again 1:18:00.880 --> 1:18:04.320 the president for believing that there were these pauses or 1:18:04.360 --> 1:18:05.280 stays of execution. 1:18:05.439 --> 1:18:08.599 Given well, this is why I want the audience to understand. 1:18:08.600 --> 1:18:10.559 The reason I think as strike as imminent is because 1:18:10.600 --> 1:18:14.160 the Iranian officials have been taunting President Trump. Half of 1:18:14.200 --> 1:18:18.320 them have been, including the Atolahameni and his sort of thugs, 1:18:18.560 --> 1:18:20.880 and then the other half of the Iranian regime tries 1:18:20.920 --> 1:18:23.920 to talk nice to us through mister Whitcoff. And we'll 1:18:23.960 --> 1:18:26.639 talk with Benham about that in a moment, but let's 1:18:26.640 --> 1:18:29.639 start by establishing who you are. It's the first time 1:18:29.680 --> 1:18:31.800 on the show, so I've got to ask you. Was 1:18:31.840 --> 1:18:33.599 Aldreus a communist? By Benham? 1:18:35.640 --> 1:18:38.320 First time caller, longtime listener. I'm a big fan of 1:18:38.720 --> 1:18:43.200 Nixon history at Paraphernalia, so I do believe he was. 1:18:43.320 --> 1:18:45.400 Yes, And have you read the Looming Tower? 1:18:47.080 --> 1:18:50.000 I have. Actually, this is a controversial point in the office. 1:18:50.320 --> 1:18:53.120 I have actually only skimmed the Looming Tower and stayed 1:18:53.120 --> 1:18:56.479 away from the documentaries because with some of other colleagues 1:18:56.520 --> 1:18:59.040 there's a line I'm infamous for given that I focused 1:18:59.040 --> 1:19:01.240 on Iran and the acts of resistance in the office, 1:19:01.280 --> 1:19:04.879 which is sometimes I find Sunni terrorism not as interesting 1:19:04.880 --> 1:19:05.879 as Shia terrorism. 1:19:05.960 --> 1:19:09.479 Well that was actually I understand it completely. 1:19:09.040 --> 1:19:13.479 For you, but a nine to eleven hits home very hard. 1:19:14.680 --> 1:19:17.560 I'm gonna I actually am very glad you made the 1:19:17.640 --> 1:19:23.800 key distinction. Al Qaeda is Sunni Wahabbist extremism Islamist fanaticism, 1:19:24.240 --> 1:19:27.560 and what's going on in Iran is the Shia fanaticism. 1:19:27.840 --> 1:19:31.439 And so tell us your background on Iran about him 1:19:31.479 --> 1:19:34.360 so the audience can understand you are not talking out 1:19:34.400 --> 1:19:34.840 of your hat. 1:19:36.240 --> 1:19:38.719 Well, I try not to anyway. But I'm a first 1:19:38.760 --> 1:19:41.120 generation in Iranian American born and raised in the United 1:19:41.120 --> 1:19:44.439 States to two immigrant parents. On my mother's side, her 1:19:44.479 --> 1:19:47.919 father was a political prisoner at the heyday of the revolution. 1:19:48.040 --> 1:19:51.280 He was a reporter under the previous government, taken to 1:19:51.280 --> 1:19:53.800 Eving Prison. Thankfully he got out, but after he got out, 1:19:53.840 --> 1:19:56.639 the whole family fled. And I wouldn't say that cast 1:19:57.040 --> 1:20:01.360 an overcast through a shadow over my future my career, 1:20:01.360 --> 1:20:03.719 But I was interested growing up as a first generation 1:20:03.760 --> 1:20:07.080 Iranian American about these issues, seeing that the Iran I 1:20:07.160 --> 1:20:09.320 knew at home and with family and with friends being 1:20:09.400 --> 1:20:12.400 drastically different than the Iran I saw in the nineties 1:20:12.439 --> 1:20:14.880 and two thousands, and again in the heyday of the 1:20:14.880 --> 1:20:17.360 Global War on Terror at Post nine to eleven Middle East. 1:20:17.680 --> 1:20:20.160 But about nineteen years I've spent in Washington, d c. 1:20:20.400 --> 1:20:23.599 All working on open source stuff, and thirteen years at 1:20:23.600 --> 1:20:26.719 the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, where I've been intimately involved 1:20:26.720 --> 1:20:29.280 in their Iran program, and I'm the senior director of 1:20:29.280 --> 1:20:32.200 their Iran program now, where I oversee the breath and 1:20:32.280 --> 1:20:34.519 depth of a lot of their work on Iran. And 1:20:34.560 --> 1:20:36.600 I've had the privilege over these thirteen years to be 1:20:36.640 --> 1:20:43.200 invited to four different continents to brief media, government, military, 1:20:43.320 --> 1:20:47.919 academic audiences around the world on the Iran issue. 1:20:48.439 --> 1:20:52.479 So I only try and bring on people who are serious, 1:20:52.840 --> 1:20:58.519 mister Ostovar. Richard Goldberg is on tomorrow your calleing. Mark 1:20:58.560 --> 1:21:01.800 Tibowitz has been on this program, Clifford, May I try 1:21:01.840 --> 1:21:06.040 and bring on people but that know what they're speaking about. 1:21:06.240 --> 1:21:08.559 I got to ask you, know, I've been listening to 1:21:08.640 --> 1:21:12.760 the book King of Kings by Scott Anderson. How do 1:21:12.840 --> 1:21:15.640 you write it as a history of nineteen seventy eight 1:21:15.720 --> 1:21:17.799 seventy nine and the immediate thereafter. 1:21:18.960 --> 1:21:22.120 Well, I eagerly bought it because, you know, history is 1:21:22.240 --> 1:21:24.280 kind of what animates us in the policy space. If 1:21:24.280 --> 1:21:25.680 we don't know history, we're not going to know what 1:21:25.720 --> 1:21:29.120 we're talking about today. I recommend buying the book. I 1:21:29.200 --> 1:21:31.759 have some major qualms with the way the book goes 1:21:31.840 --> 1:21:35.360 through the lives of certain individuals, particularly some folks at 1:21:35.400 --> 1:21:37.559 the State Department at the time. It kind of uses 1:21:37.640 --> 1:21:40.559 their personal story to tell a story of the Iranian Revolution. 1:21:40.880 --> 1:21:43.880 I don't think that's always the best prism to tell 1:21:44.000 --> 1:21:46.520 history through. I think if you're doing history as biography, 1:21:46.520 --> 1:21:49.760 you're better off focusing on, you know, the biographies of 1:21:49.800 --> 1:21:51.880 people in the Middle East, because they've really made and 1:21:51.920 --> 1:21:55.240 reshaped their states. You know. Focusing on a bureaucrat at 1:21:55.240 --> 1:21:57.880 the State Department to understand something as seismic as the 1:21:57.880 --> 1:22:02.360 Iranian Revolution is not the best tool. So I think 1:22:02.400 --> 1:22:05.320 it's an important book to have. It is certainly, by 1:22:05.360 --> 1:22:07.679 no means the only book to have on that revolution. 1:22:08.360 --> 1:22:11.400 I would recommend two good books on twentieth century Iran, 1:22:11.560 --> 1:22:14.840 The Last Jaw by Ray tak Here, as well as 1:22:14.880 --> 1:22:17.719 of course Days of God by James Buckan. 1:22:18.560 --> 1:22:20.679 All Right, what do you make of Vanguard of Them 1:22:20.720 --> 1:22:21.839 Mom by mister Rostovar. 1:22:23.400 --> 1:22:26.160 I've actually done a book review of Vanguard of the mom. 1:22:26.200 --> 1:22:31.120 It's actually the nicest, best synthesis of the IRGC, which 1:22:31.160 --> 1:22:34.160 is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps out there from the 1:22:34.240 --> 1:22:37.519 academic world and in terms of the policy world. You know, 1:22:37.520 --> 1:22:39.280 there are some people that I know and respect and 1:22:39.360 --> 1:22:42.200 work with that have talked about the Guard core, this 1:22:42.280 --> 1:22:44.920 kind of tip of the revolutionary sphere of the Islamic 1:22:44.960 --> 1:22:48.759 Republic as being able to create a military dictatorship overnight. 1:22:48.840 --> 1:22:51.000 And then there's some people who talk about it purely 1:22:51.040 --> 1:22:54.800 within the Islamic or Islamist lens. Mosto Far does a 1:22:54.880 --> 1:22:57.519 nice balance in between. So Vanguard of the mom is 1:22:57.520 --> 1:22:59.960 a good book if you want to understand the orige 1:23:00.360 --> 1:23:02.880 and the evolution of the IRGC. 1:23:03.680 --> 1:23:06.479 Now, I have been following a few people very closely. 1:23:06.720 --> 1:23:09.800 Kareem Saidyrpoor, who I'm honored to know. I'm sure you 1:23:09.880 --> 1:23:12.800 respect his work, and he's at Karnage absolutely. Am I 1:23:12.920 --> 1:23:16.760 right that you respect Koreas? And I've been following you 1:23:16.880 --> 1:23:21.240 and Mark Dubowitz and other people. I don't know what 1:23:21.320 --> 1:23:24.640 to trust when people say here's Persian language media, and 1:23:24.680 --> 1:23:28.280 I'm translating it for you because you can't believe everything. 1:23:28.320 --> 1:23:30.479 Have you seen a lot of misinformation on the web 1:23:30.680 --> 1:23:33.840 the in the recent weeks, Well. 1:23:33.720 --> 1:23:36.000 It depends a great deal what you're looking at. There 1:23:36.040 --> 1:23:39.120 is a lot of narrative based misinformation. You know, Iran's 1:23:39.120 --> 1:23:43.280 octagenarian Supreme Leader, so called Supreme Leader, as President Trump 1:23:43.320 --> 1:23:46.680 likes to say, believes that sometimes more important than the 1:23:46.760 --> 1:23:49.920 kinetic war is winning the narrative war. You know, these 1:23:49.920 --> 1:23:52.519 are people who actually believe what they're talking about, and 1:23:52.560 --> 1:23:54.880 they're trying to make you believe what they're talking about 1:23:54.920 --> 1:23:58.679 as well. So they have spent considerable time, effort, attention, 1:23:58.880 --> 1:24:01.880 money to try to sow scored on social media, to 1:24:01.960 --> 1:24:04.479 try to sow discord within the Iranian opposition, to try 1:24:04.479 --> 1:24:07.639 to sow discord everywhere. And you don't have to take 1:24:07.680 --> 1:24:09.240 that just for me. You can even look at the 1:24:09.280 --> 1:24:13.240 way the Bided Administrations Director of National Intelligence talked about 1:24:13.479 --> 1:24:16.000 the way they even tried to penetrate and even fund 1:24:16.040 --> 1:24:18.600 and fuel many of the pro Palestine protests here. So 1:24:18.960 --> 1:24:22.080 you are precisely right to talk about the challenge and 1:24:22.120 --> 1:24:26.200 the kaleidoscope of the information environment and to make it 1:24:26.240 --> 1:24:28.800 even harder to understand, not only is this regime putting 1:24:28.800 --> 1:24:33.960 out disinformation and misinformation, calling Iranian protesters who are unarmed terrorists, 1:24:34.000 --> 1:24:37.400 saying people who were killed were actually regime loyalists, and 1:24:37.479 --> 1:24:40.519 forcing their families into forced confessions and all of this 1:24:40.600 --> 1:24:44.120 other atrocious stuff that has really turned the street against 1:24:44.120 --> 1:24:47.320 the state for many years now inside Iran. But then 1:24:47.360 --> 1:24:50.400 they also had this two plus week internet blackout for 1:24:50.520 --> 1:24:53.680 fear of having been seen as transgressing Trump's redline on 1:24:53.800 --> 1:24:54.479 this crackdown. 1:24:55.400 --> 1:24:59.800 So, benam, have you at the foundation or a group 1:24:59.840 --> 1:25:03.400 of people put forward for journalists like me who want 1:25:03.439 --> 1:25:08.120 to follow credible experts, a comprehensive list of people that 1:25:08.120 --> 1:25:10.559 they I try and do it occasionally. I'm always mentioning 1:25:10.600 --> 1:25:14.519 you and Mark and Kareem and Richard and Yashar, who 1:25:14.560 --> 1:25:16.160 I disagree with, but I think he does a good 1:25:16.240 --> 1:25:18.960 job reporting on Iran. We have one minute. Have I 1:25:19.000 --> 1:25:21.760 missed somebody other than I clif heard? May of course, 1:25:21.800 --> 1:25:24.640 But have I missed anyone I should be following? Absolutely? 1:25:25.920 --> 1:25:27.920 I think you know, you hit some of the greats. 1:25:27.920 --> 1:25:29.880 It's an honor to be included among them. I personally 1:25:29.920 --> 1:25:32.280 don't believe it's my view as a think tanker in 1:25:32.439 --> 1:25:36.000 Washington to you know, name some and not name others. 1:25:36.439 --> 1:25:38.040 But I think you know folks who are in the 1:25:38.040 --> 1:25:41.439 media space like you, who have found credible and reliable voices. 1:25:41.960 --> 1:25:44.200 When you amplify it a we're grateful and be the 1:25:44.240 --> 1:25:46.920 American people are grateful. So you know, kudos to you 1:25:46.960 --> 1:25:47.400 for doing that. 1:25:48.000 --> 1:25:50.040 When we come back from break, I'm going to ask 1:25:50.080 --> 1:25:52.840 bet Him to walk us through the situation as he 1:25:52.960 --> 1:25:56.920 understands it. Monday mid day drive time inside the Beltway, 1:25:57.000 --> 1:25:59.920 a snowed in belt Way, but from all this sort 1:25:59.960 --> 1:26:01.960 of so as I see inside the United States and 1:26:02.000 --> 1:26:04.920 from Israel, which I trust on this file people like 1:26:04.920 --> 1:26:08.840 a Meet Segal and not Aveyal and others will get 1:26:08.880 --> 1:26:11.240 his take on where we are on this Monday. Stay 1:26:11.240 --> 1:26:14.559 tuned at the qq AT shot. Welcome back to America. 1:26:14.680 --> 1:26:20.720 I'm qqw At Benham Ben Talablue is an Iranian, first 1:26:20.760 --> 1:26:24.919 generation Iranian American and an expert on the Islamic Republic 1:26:25.160 --> 1:26:28.479 of Iran. So Benham is joining me for the most 1:26:28.479 --> 1:26:30.280 of this hour, not in the last three minutes when 1:26:30.320 --> 1:26:32.679 we transition to Larry Elder, but most of this hour 1:26:33.040 --> 1:26:35.080 in order to talk about where we are. So I 1:26:35.120 --> 1:26:37.679 want to give you the floor the nine minute segment, Benham, 1:26:37.840 --> 1:26:40.400 Where are we right now in your estimate, and what 1:26:40.439 --> 1:26:43.519 do you see happening in the hours, days, weeks ahead. 1:26:44.720 --> 1:26:48.400 We're at a critical juncture, not just in the long battle, 1:26:48.439 --> 1:26:50.840 the forty seven year battle between the street and the 1:26:50.920 --> 1:26:54.880 state inside Iran, but we're also at a critical juncture 1:26:54.880 --> 1:26:58.960 in US Iran relations. Never has military force been threatened 1:26:59.000 --> 1:27:02.280 so overtly and credibly, I might add in this way. 1:27:02.320 --> 1:27:05.519 So I think right now we're at the countdown to 1:27:05.680 --> 1:27:09.599 a highly likely strike, overt kinetic strike by the Trump 1:27:09.640 --> 1:27:13.240 administration against the Islamic Republic of Iran, with many questions 1:27:13.320 --> 1:27:16.439 lingering about the targets, about the relationship between the strike 1:27:16.520 --> 1:27:20.400 and protest, about how to counter the regime's potential retaliation, 1:27:20.760 --> 1:27:24.400 and perhaps most importantly, how a strike politically and from 1:27:24.439 --> 1:27:28.360 a policy perspective feeds into what the President had already 1:27:28.400 --> 1:27:30.599 wanted to achieve with respect to Iran. 1:27:32.000 --> 1:27:34.320 So there are a lot of options on the table. 1:27:34.360 --> 1:27:37.120 I've heard a lot of people talk about impediments in 1:27:37.160 --> 1:27:40.599 the Israeli media. They mentioned that Turkey has reinstalled radar 1:27:40.720 --> 1:27:43.240 in Damascus, which may be an impediment to the IDF 1:27:43.320 --> 1:27:46.240 working with us. That might not matter to our stealth 1:27:46.240 --> 1:27:48.679 fighters coming off the Lincoln or from the air bases. 1:27:50.200 --> 1:27:54.599 What is your assessment of the Israeli American coordination level 1:27:54.640 --> 1:27:57.040 and whether or not an American strike would be joint 1:27:57.600 --> 1:28:00.679 or prior to Israeli strike. 1:28:01.920 --> 1:28:05.519 It's actually an excellent question because if past this prologue, 1:28:05.600 --> 1:28:08.200 the coordination that exists not just at the military level, 1:28:08.200 --> 1:28:11.640 but at the political and intelligence level between Israel and 1:28:11.680 --> 1:28:15.280 the United States, and in particular between the Trump administration 1:28:16.040 --> 1:28:19.679 and the net Yahoo government in Israel is quite extensive. 1:28:19.720 --> 1:28:21.760 I mean quite literally. They were able to dupe and 1:28:22.280 --> 1:28:26.360 fake and bob and weave over the past few months 1:28:26.400 --> 1:28:28.920 in twenty twenty five, prior to the Twelve Day War, 1:28:28.960 --> 1:28:32.600 with many credible journalists and experts left guessing as to 1:28:32.680 --> 1:28:35.160 the different sides of, you know, the Iran issue. These 1:28:35.160 --> 1:28:38.639 two countries and administrations came down on only to see 1:28:38.640 --> 1:28:41.160 that they were singing from the same sheet of music 1:28:41.439 --> 1:28:44.200 once the actual kinetic activity started with the Twelve Day War. 1:28:44.280 --> 1:28:47.000 So ultimately, I actually think there's a lot more that 1:28:47.160 --> 1:28:49.320 is going on behind the scenes. I think in terms 1:28:49.360 --> 1:28:52.240 of order. You raise a very interesting question, is it 1:28:52.280 --> 1:28:55.400 America first than Israel or is it Israel first in America? 1:28:55.479 --> 1:28:57.240 And in terms of the targeting, if there is going 1:28:57.320 --> 1:28:59.559 to be something kinetic, and again it highly looks like that, 1:29:00.479 --> 1:29:02.719 will there be a division of labor? You know, last 1:29:02.720 --> 1:29:04.920 time these really is cleared the way for America to 1:29:04.960 --> 1:29:07.840 have a powerful strike against the nuclear program. This time, 1:29:07.880 --> 1:29:09.760 of course, you have to worry about how can you 1:29:09.800 --> 1:29:13.800 suppress the regime's lethal ballistic missile force, anti access area 1:29:13.840 --> 1:29:17.080 general capabilities while being able to hold the political and 1:29:17.120 --> 1:29:20.640 security elite responsible for the crackdown against the States. So 1:29:20.680 --> 1:29:23.040 one wonders, right now, is there a division of labor? 1:29:23.400 --> 1:29:26.519 And if passes prologue, I highly think there is, so. 1:29:26.880 --> 1:29:30.400 Benam, I've asked everyone about this. There are only three 1:29:30.680 --> 1:29:35.040 export oil exporting terminals in Iran. One is on carg Island, 1:29:35.080 --> 1:29:38.280 there are two other ones adjacent. That is the lifeblood 1:29:38.360 --> 1:29:41.559 of the IRGC. That is the currency upon which their 1:29:41.640 --> 1:29:44.800 terror network operates, and they pay their people even it's 1:29:44.880 --> 1:29:49.320 hard currency through shadow companies. Why don't we hit them 1:29:49.640 --> 1:29:50.400 if we go in? 1:29:51.840 --> 1:29:54.439 So? I think thus far the US has been a 1:29:54.439 --> 1:29:58.000 bit reticent to escalate and Moss against energy. One reason 1:29:58.000 --> 1:30:00.559 has been energy prices. The other reason has been the 1:30:00.560 --> 1:30:06.160 Iranians might go full force against GCC energy infrastructure, which again, 1:30:06.200 --> 1:30:08.320 if passes prologue, the regime would try to do that. 1:30:08.320 --> 1:30:11.240 That would be the Golf Coordinating Council. You now five 1:30:11.280 --> 1:30:13.240 dollars in the tip jar, then i'd be a rule 1:30:13.280 --> 1:30:15.920 of the heug here would show that former congress from 1:30:15.920 --> 1:30:20.600 Mike Allagher would break no acronyms without expert Okay, the 1:30:20.680 --> 1:30:22.639 Golf Coordinating coordinated Yeah. 1:30:23.000 --> 1:30:26.000 Yes, so if America's Arab partners on the other side 1:30:26.000 --> 1:30:27.880 of the Persian golf places where we have a lot 1:30:27.920 --> 1:30:30.320 of bases. But you remember in twenty nineteen there was 1:30:30.360 --> 1:30:33.439 a drone and cruise missile attack by the regime against 1:30:33.479 --> 1:30:36.439 Saudi oil facilities. It's assumed that it could engage in 1:30:36.520 --> 1:30:39.599 a much larger and much wider operation. Really from the 1:30:39.640 --> 1:30:43.000 mid Obama period twenty ten twenty twelve, when there was 1:30:43.040 --> 1:30:46.519 the talk of oil sanctions being floated in Washington and 1:30:46.520 --> 1:30:50.320 then enforced over time, Iran had talked about responding in 1:30:50.439 --> 1:30:54.479 kind against energy infrastructure. So you know, there's a desire 1:30:54.520 --> 1:30:57.439 not to spook or provoke the Islamic Republic into doing that. 1:30:57.640 --> 1:30:59.600 But then again, at this point in time, when the 1:30:59.640 --> 1:31:02.720 regime is so weak, when the regime basically has no 1:31:02.760 --> 1:31:05.800 air defenses, when it's come up short against American and 1:31:05.880 --> 1:31:09.760 Israeli conventional military capability, when its nuclear program is down, 1:31:10.200 --> 1:31:13.160 when its proxies have been neutered. The question is if 1:31:13.160 --> 1:31:16.200 Iran does respond to a US attack against Caig Island, 1:31:16.280 --> 1:31:19.840 for example, just hypothetically, it would be leading with its 1:31:19.920 --> 1:31:23.840 chin because it would literally try to attack civilian infrastructure 1:31:23.840 --> 1:31:25.680 on the other side of the Persian Gulf and in 1:31:25.800 --> 1:31:28.080 so doing bring Uncle Sam in in a much much 1:31:28.120 --> 1:31:32.080 bigger way. So potentially the Islamic Republic is threatening damage 1:31:32.360 --> 1:31:35.280 that it can't win an escalation spiral with respect to 1:31:35.400 --> 1:31:37.840 So those are options that remain on the table. I 1:31:37.840 --> 1:31:40.160 don't think the US might start with that, but those 1:31:40.160 --> 1:31:42.320 are options that remain on the table, and perhaps the 1:31:42.400 --> 1:31:45.599 US could credibly wield that as a tool to get 1:31:45.680 --> 1:31:49.160 Kamina to take this punishment or even decapitate the Hominy 1:31:49.280 --> 1:31:52.920 led government there as a way to bargain against responding. 1:31:54.040 --> 1:31:55.479 I don't want to be overcomfident, but I was in 1:31:55.479 --> 1:31:59.400 the Reagan administration when Operation praying manage happen, and President 1:31:59.479 --> 1:32:03.280 Reagan or ordered half or two thirds of the Iranian 1:32:03.880 --> 1:32:06.200 navy sunk and it was. And they didn't put a 1:32:06.240 --> 1:32:08.519 glove on us. I don't recall that they did. Maybe 1:32:08.520 --> 1:32:11.759 they did have one destroyer strike. I'm not really worried 1:32:11.880 --> 1:32:15.280 if we go all in about their ability other than 1:32:15.320 --> 1:32:17.839 for Israel. I mean, they could fuse all lot Israel 1:32:18.080 --> 1:32:21.480 with every launcher they've got left and try and overwhelm 1:32:21.640 --> 1:32:26.160 Iron Dome. What is your greatest concern? Because the oil 1:32:26.280 --> 1:32:30.200 money keeps that regime alive. There's no way it survives 1:32:30.560 --> 1:32:32.040 three years without the oil money. 1:32:33.760 --> 1:32:37.559 Precisely, going after a higherg island and Assalujah would basically 1:32:37.560 --> 1:32:40.120 be a death blow to the regime's economy, and there 1:32:40.120 --> 1:32:43.120 would be expediting the taking time bomb that is already 1:32:43.720 --> 1:32:46.840 the poor economy of the Islamic Republic. That being said, 1:32:46.840 --> 1:32:49.760 I think there have been updated plans. If I had 1:32:49.760 --> 1:32:52.799 to guess from the Department of War now with respect 1:32:52.880 --> 1:32:55.000 to Operation Pragmant is how not just to go after 1:32:55.040 --> 1:32:58.320 the conventional Runi Navy, but the much more smaller and 1:32:58.640 --> 1:33:03.240 more greatly first Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp Navy, which uses 1:33:03.240 --> 1:33:06.840 fast attack craft, underwater drones, anti ship cruise missiles. So 1:33:06.880 --> 1:33:08.880 the US has the opportunity to defeat this if it 1:33:08.920 --> 1:33:10.920 operates from range, if it is willing to take a 1:33:10.920 --> 1:33:13.640 few hits and then land a few major blows. But 1:33:13.880 --> 1:33:16.439 ultimately I think you're right when it comes to the 1:33:16.439 --> 1:33:19.400 balance that have passed this prologue, if the US chooses 1:33:19.439 --> 1:33:22.280 to come in a big way, it can actually decisively 1:33:22.320 --> 1:33:26.479 tip the balance and neuter the forces in the Persian Gulf. 1:33:26.479 --> 1:33:28.800 It could be messier now, however, which gets me to 1:33:28.880 --> 1:33:31.639 what my fear is, per your question, the regime will 1:33:31.640 --> 1:33:36.200 be able to land blows against critical energy infrastructure or 1:33:36.200 --> 1:33:39.080 even the American bases, given the distance, and given that 1:33:39.080 --> 1:33:42.120 the Islamic Revolutionary Guard cord now compared to the nineteen 1:33:42.160 --> 1:33:45.600 eighties as precision strikes short range ballistic missiles, many of 1:33:45.640 --> 1:33:48.720 which were not used actually in either the Twelve Day 1:33:48.760 --> 1:33:52.240 War or the April and October military exchanges between Iran 1:33:52.280 --> 1:33:54.960 and Israel. So the threat is the precision strike threat 1:33:55.040 --> 1:34:00.880 across the Persian Gulf, and second, of course American basing infrastructure, 1:34:01.080 --> 1:34:03.559 so not just energy and civilian targets there, but facing 1:34:03.560 --> 1:34:06.840 an infrastructure and third, exactly what you mentioned, which is 1:34:06.880 --> 1:34:10.719 resuming their medium range ballistic missile strikes against Israel, hoping 1:34:10.760 --> 1:34:13.960 to puncture through Israel's layered air and missile defenses. 1:34:14.520 --> 1:34:16.599 When we come back from break, I will ask Benham 1:34:16.640 --> 1:34:21.320 whether or not in his assessment, the IRGC poses a 1:34:21.400 --> 1:34:23.880 threat to the Lincoln or any of its strike group 1:34:25.200 --> 1:34:29.120 escorts or other American naval assets, and what kind of 1:34:29.160 --> 1:34:32.479 threat it poses to our airmen and cutter and our 1:34:32.560 --> 1:34:36.960 other facilities among the Gulf allies that we have. And 1:34:37.160 --> 1:34:40.760 to MBZ, who has been our stauncher's strongest ally other 1:34:40.800 --> 1:34:42.920 than Israel for many many years in the Middle East, 1:34:42.960 --> 1:34:45.559 and MBS who is the up and coming dominant power 1:34:45.600 --> 1:34:47.320 in the region. I'll ask him that after the break, 1:34:47.320 --> 1:34:49.800 don't go any where, stay tuned to the Good Hewitt Show. 1:34:50.479 --> 1:34:53.160 Welcome Back in America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. My guest from 1:34:53.200 --> 1:34:56.760 the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies is that foundation 1:34:57.080 --> 1:35:01.200 head of the Iran program there Bentham Ben Talablue, who 1:35:01.240 --> 1:35:05.479 you can follow the real Benham ben on X and 1:35:05.520 --> 1:35:08.120 I will be reposting that in this interview over at 1:35:08.200 --> 1:35:10.720 YouTube my YouTube channel if you want to send it 1:35:10.760 --> 1:35:16.720 to your friends. Benham based on your extensive contacts, give 1:35:16.800 --> 1:35:19.559 me what you believe is the scenario that will unfold 1:35:19.600 --> 1:35:22.679 within and even your time. Frange because we can't keep 1:35:22.680 --> 1:35:26.400 a carrier off the coast of Iran forever, and the 1:35:26.439 --> 1:35:27.960 Lincoln's been out for a while anyway. 1:35:29.600 --> 1:35:31.760 Well, the first thing I would say is, never underestimate 1:35:31.800 --> 1:35:33.960 the ability of the United States to spend money. There 1:35:33.960 --> 1:35:36.400 have been times we've had two carriers in the Persian Gulf. 1:35:37.120 --> 1:35:39.760 Obviously it was a very different regional threat environment in 1:35:39.800 --> 1:35:42.760 the Sencom aoar, in the Sencom area of responsibility, I 1:35:42.800 --> 1:35:45.120 should say, sorry, another five dollars in the tip shar. 1:35:46.680 --> 1:35:48.559 But so never say never when it comes to Uncle 1:35:48.600 --> 1:35:51.320 Sam being able to spend money, to build leverage, to 1:35:51.400 --> 1:35:55.000 generate the terms by simply amassing these forces and being 1:35:55.000 --> 1:35:58.840 able to politically and militarily strangle the Islamic Republic. But 1:35:58.880 --> 1:36:01.080 that being said, I do think we're the countdown period 1:36:01.160 --> 1:36:03.800 to a strike. The real question is what kind of strike? 1:36:03.840 --> 1:36:06.320 And this is actually where you know decision makers in 1:36:06.400 --> 1:36:09.439 Washington are much more tight lipt than ever before. Trump 1:36:09.520 --> 1:36:11.960 term two is very different than Trump term one in 1:36:12.000 --> 1:36:14.599 that respect. Just as an observer and someone who lives here, 1:36:15.120 --> 1:36:17.040 but I will tell you this, the President is keeping 1:36:17.040 --> 1:36:19.400 the cards close to his chest. I think the mistake 1:36:19.479 --> 1:36:21.200 during Trump term one, as we would focus on the 1:36:21.240 --> 1:36:23.479 people around him, you know, who's up, who's down, the 1:36:23.520 --> 1:36:27.240 kremlinology of the situation, the president, the commander in chief, 1:36:27.320 --> 1:36:30.679 is absolutely one hundred percent in charge. And the reason 1:36:30.720 --> 1:36:32.719 we don't have a strategy set yet or we haven't 1:36:32.760 --> 1:36:35.120 had much insight yet, is that the President is choosing 1:36:35.200 --> 1:36:37.719 not to reveal this. And again he could be building 1:36:37.760 --> 1:36:40.679 up to a situation like we had in last summer 1:36:40.720 --> 1:36:43.400 in twenty twenty five, where he feigns in one direction 1:36:43.479 --> 1:36:45.240 and goes in another. But I think we have to 1:36:45.280 --> 1:36:48.679 understand that more than any other president, President Trump covets 1:36:48.720 --> 1:36:53.080 flexibility and actually creates uncertainty in doubt both in the 1:36:53.080 --> 1:36:56.360 minds of allies and adversaries alike, for his and the 1:36:56.479 --> 1:36:59.280 US strategic benefits. So that's one reason why we're all 1:36:59.320 --> 1:37:02.479 still in this game and holding pattern as the US 1:37:02.600 --> 1:37:05.120 continues to move more assets in theater. I think at 1:37:05.160 --> 1:37:07.720 a very minimum, if we're going to ascribe something to 1:37:07.760 --> 1:37:10.360 what the President is interested in doing, it is to 1:37:10.400 --> 1:37:14.360 borrow a line from Machiavelli's the Prince. It is to 1:37:14.560 --> 1:37:18.760 satisfy and stupefy, to be able to satisfy the constituencies 1:37:18.800 --> 1:37:22.280 that want to strike, and to hold up that US credibility, 1:37:22.280 --> 1:37:24.519 that US red line to look more like Reagan on 1:37:24.560 --> 1:37:28.600 Iran than Obama on Iran, and then more importantly, to 1:37:28.640 --> 1:37:32.280 stupefy to make sure that that credibility transcends just the 1:37:32.320 --> 1:37:35.240 Iran paradigm, to keep the ball rolling, if you will, 1:37:35.280 --> 1:37:38.839 when it comes to US military wins following Venezuela, following 1:37:38.880 --> 1:37:41.920 Operation Midnight Hammer, rather than having this be a critical 1:37:42.000 --> 1:37:46.439 juncture where US credibility and capability is doubted despite the 1:37:46.520 --> 1:37:49.280 successes at least with the regime change at the top 1:37:49.280 --> 1:37:52.519 in Venezuela and at least with the counter proliferation operation 1:37:52.680 --> 1:37:55.920 that was Operation Midnight Hammer. So the President is looking, 1:37:55.960 --> 1:38:02.640 i think, to satisfy and stupefy. 1:38:00.120 --> 1:38:03.400 Worry about attempting to take out Ayatolahameini is that it's 1:38:03.439 --> 1:38:06.320 pretty easy to hide one person. It can't hide an 1:38:06.360 --> 1:38:09.800 oil terminal or their navy or ier GC basis. But 1:38:10.479 --> 1:38:13.599 in order to increase the deterrent that the President has 1:38:13.640 --> 1:38:17.519 painstakingly rebuilt since the collapse in Afghanistan, or President Biden 1:38:17.920 --> 1:38:21.200 to increase that deterrent, He's got to do something visible, 1:38:21.320 --> 1:38:24.840 I mean something dramatic. That's my opinion, and that I 1:38:24.880 --> 1:38:27.320 think he will dent the deterrence he's rebuilt if he 1:38:27.360 --> 1:38:30.360 doesn't do something visible and dramatic. Do you agree with me? 1:38:31.280 --> 1:38:34.519 I agree wholeheartedly. You know this needs to not just 1:38:34.600 --> 1:38:37.519 be seen, to be credible and have an escalating and 1:38:37.560 --> 1:38:43.599 resonating deterrent effect and credibility multiplier for America's or other 1:38:43.680 --> 1:38:47.519 authoritarian adversaries, not just in the region but elsewhere, but 1:38:47.560 --> 1:38:50.920 most importantly needs to be felt and seen by the 1:38:50.960 --> 1:38:53.280 Iranian people. Less we forget the reason we're in this 1:38:53.360 --> 1:38:57.120 situation is there has been nationwide anti regime protests, the 1:38:57.160 --> 1:38:59.919 most significant protests in the history of the Islamic Republic 1:39:00.200 --> 1:39:03.559 and the most violently repressed, not just in the forty 1:39:03.560 --> 1:39:06.919 seven year history of the Islamic Republic, but in the 1:39:06.960 --> 1:39:09.800 past century, if not century and a half, of contemporary 1:39:09.840 --> 1:39:13.479 Iranian history. And the President shows not once or twice, 1:39:13.520 --> 1:39:17.799 but based on whatever open source you're looking at, print, TV, radio, 1:39:17.880 --> 1:39:21.280 social media eight to nine times, has touched this issue, 1:39:21.360 --> 1:39:24.799 has made it a US issue by talking about holding 1:39:24.840 --> 1:39:28.320 the regime accountable, and therefore this is intertwined with a 1:39:28.360 --> 1:39:31.280 credibility issue and a deterrence issue for Washington. But I 1:39:31.280 --> 1:39:33.400 would push even further. I agree with the line that 1:39:33.439 --> 1:39:36.559 has often ascribed to Henry Kissinger that foreign policy is 1:39:36.600 --> 1:39:39.680 not missionary work. You know, it is not charity to 1:39:39.800 --> 1:39:43.000 strike the government of the Islamic Republic just because we're 1:39:43.040 --> 1:39:45.200 standing with the Runian people. This is a regime that 1:39:45.240 --> 1:39:48.240 has chanted since its inception, death to America and death 1:39:48.280 --> 1:39:50.160 to Israel, and has put its money where his mouth 1:39:50.240 --> 1:39:52.040 is for those four and a half decades. 1:39:52.600 --> 1:39:54.840 Okay, So I'm coming back for one more segment with 1:39:54.960 --> 1:39:59.720 Ben Tallablue, and when we do, we've got to find 1:39:59.720 --> 1:40:04.120 out it about the threat to the Lincoln, other adjacent chips, Israel, 1:40:04.240 --> 1:40:07.600 and whether or not Iran's terror proxies are inside the 1:40:07.680 --> 1:40:10.559 United States, because indeed, if we hit them hard enough, 1:40:10.920 --> 1:40:15.080 they'll do everything they can to hurt us. And I 1:40:15.120 --> 1:40:17.599 want people to be very wide eyed and awake about 1:40:17.640 --> 1:40:20.679 those risks. Madam's going to tell us about that after 1:40:20.720 --> 1:40:23.360 the break. Stay tuned here on the Salem News Channel 1:40:23.360 --> 1:40:25.680 and the Salem Radio Network, on our wonderful affiliates on 1:40:25.800 --> 1:40:28.720 q CUTT welcome back in America. I'm Hugh hewittt with that. 1:40:28.960 --> 1:40:33.479 Ben Talla Blue bedam General Madis when he was in 1:40:33.600 --> 1:40:36.800 charge of an expeditionary unit out here in Camp Pedal 1:40:36.920 --> 1:40:39.320 had a chief of staff, Clark Latine, who once it said, 1:40:39.360 --> 1:40:42.040 I wish you civilians would think about second order impacts. Well, 1:40:42.040 --> 1:40:44.880 I am thinking about second order impact. Can they hit 1:40:44.920 --> 1:40:48.280 the Lincoln, can they hit our ships? Can they hit Israel? 1:40:48.320 --> 1:40:50.519 And do they have sleeper sales in the United States. 1:40:50.680 --> 1:40:52.519 That's a lot of questions. You have the floor. 1:40:54.000 --> 1:40:55.960 It's a lot of questions, But I'll do my best answer. 1:40:56.120 --> 1:40:59.040 Certainly they can strike US bases on the opposite side 1:40:59.040 --> 1:41:00.639 of the Persian Gulf. At the end of the Twelve 1:41:00.720 --> 1:41:03.880 Day War, we saw the regime fire ballistic missiles at 1:41:03.920 --> 1:41:08.160 a actual raydome facility at the Alludaide base and Qatar, 1:41:08.240 --> 1:41:10.760 so there's a demonstrated ability to do that. We also 1:41:10.880 --> 1:41:13.880 know that there's the IRGC navy threat, the anti axis 1:41:13.920 --> 1:41:17.320 air denial, and the maritime asymmetric threat in the Persian 1:41:17.320 --> 1:41:19.759 Gulf and Strait of Hormones, which can go from anything 1:41:19.840 --> 1:41:25.559 from mining operations placing limpet mines, selective anti ship missile attacks, 1:41:25.880 --> 1:41:29.240 underwater drone attacks, and harassment operations that could make life 1:41:29.320 --> 1:41:33.479 much more challenging, but certainly not impossible either for the 1:41:33.520 --> 1:41:36.080 Lincoln or for our destroyers. And we need those destroyers 1:41:36.080 --> 1:41:39.439 in that region to bolster air and missile defense because 1:41:39.439 --> 1:41:43.360 these are ages enabled ballistic missile defense destroyers as well. 1:41:44.040 --> 1:41:46.720 But if the US chooses to operate from range, which 1:41:46.760 --> 1:41:48.800 is one way you can get around anti axis air 1:41:48.920 --> 1:41:52.439 denial capabilities, or if the US punches the regime hard 1:41:52.520 --> 1:41:56.320 enough and suppresses their fire in a preemptive operation, then 1:41:56.680 --> 1:41:59.479 there's the chance that you can significantly reduce the zone 1:41:59.479 --> 1:42:02.519 of impact act for the US on the opposite side 1:42:02.520 --> 1:42:04.880 of the Persian Gulf and in those waters that you mentioned. 1:42:05.200 --> 1:42:07.679 Israel is an altogether different matter. You know, Iran has 1:42:07.720 --> 1:42:11.439 three chains of missile bases that are underground caverns or 1:42:11.760 --> 1:42:14.800 underground missile bases. You know, there's the Western chain, the 1:42:14.840 --> 1:42:18.280 Central chain, and the Eastern chain that can fire medium 1:42:18.360 --> 1:42:22.000 range ballistic missiles at Israel. You know, if passes prologue, 1:42:22.000 --> 1:42:24.640 you know, I think about thirty people died in the 1:42:24.760 --> 1:42:27.800 Twelve Day War. The regime fired about five hundred and 1:42:27.800 --> 1:42:31.200 seventy plus medium range ballistic missiles and Israel had a 1:42:31.439 --> 1:42:34.960 eighty five eighty six percent interception rate, so that's fairly 1:42:35.040 --> 1:42:37.439 high level of success. But make no mistake that it 1:42:37.479 --> 1:42:40.880 did a significant amount of damage and burnt through a 1:42:40.920 --> 1:42:44.559 bunch of US and Israeli missile interceptors, which is one 1:42:44.600 --> 1:42:46.880 potential reason for the pause in the Middle East today. 1:42:46.920 --> 1:42:50.120 So certainly the regime is weak. Certainly though it can 1:42:50.200 --> 1:42:52.960 do damage despite being weak, But we still have the 1:42:53.040 --> 1:42:55.360 upper hand. It's about being willing to pay those costs 1:42:55.400 --> 1:42:57.719 upfront or distributing them over time. 1:42:59.040 --> 1:43:03.679 I think in the United States, let. 1:43:03.520 --> 1:43:06.080 Me just say this, because the changing face of Iranian 1:43:06.160 --> 1:43:09.479 terrorism in the US has to be taken seriously. I 1:43:09.520 --> 1:43:12.240 think for far too long we've had a politicized border 1:43:12.240 --> 1:43:15.479 debate when this should be a non partisan debate. The 1:43:15.520 --> 1:43:17.880 fact that you have had not just Iranians, but a 1:43:17.920 --> 1:43:20.400 whole host of different nationalities be able to for many 1:43:20.439 --> 1:43:24.080 years coming through the southern border and be undocumented could 1:43:24.400 --> 1:43:27.160 pose one threat vector, but it's not the only threat vector. 1:43:27.439 --> 1:43:29.559 If you look at the past decade and a half, 1:43:29.680 --> 1:43:32.519 the Islamic Republic has tried to work with everything from 1:43:32.960 --> 1:43:38.679 Mexican drug cartels to Eastern European mafias to Canadian biker 1:43:38.760 --> 1:43:42.800 gangs to try to engage in kidnapping or terrorism or 1:43:42.840 --> 1:43:47.400 assassination on US soil against dissidence defectors and even US 1:43:47.400 --> 1:43:49.960 persons and citizens. So that should be setting off the 1:43:50.000 --> 1:43:52.400 alarm bell as well. The fact that also on the 1:43:52.400 --> 1:43:55.519 anniversary of the killing of Cosm Solimani, the regime's former 1:43:55.840 --> 1:43:59.200 chief terrorists, which the Trump administration killed in January twenty twenty, 1:43:59.479 --> 1:44:02.920 his replace talked about wouldn't it be nice if Americans 1:44:02.960 --> 1:44:06.640 were able to carry out our operations or our activities 1:44:06.720 --> 1:44:10.160 for us, you know, having Americans fight Americans rather than 1:44:10.720 --> 1:44:13.200 you know, the Iranians pay a proxy or a gun 1:44:13.200 --> 1:44:15.280 for hire to kill Americans. So there is that fear 1:44:15.280 --> 1:44:17.640 of well of being able to ride the wave of 1:44:17.720 --> 1:44:21.800 lone wolf frustration that could exist in this country. And 1:44:21.840 --> 1:44:24.559 the third, of course, is the potential for those sleeper cells, 1:44:24.600 --> 1:44:28.200 either in certain communities inside the United States or the 1:44:28.240 --> 1:44:30.960 ability to kind of work through a whole host of 1:44:30.960 --> 1:44:32.960 fronts or affiliates that may not even know they are 1:44:33.000 --> 1:44:36.080 fronts or affiliates. Again, this is something that for d 1:44:36.160 --> 1:44:38.760 and I, Avril Haynes and the Biden administration talked about 1:44:38.760 --> 1:44:41.479 when it came to the pro Palestine protests that they 1:44:41.479 --> 1:44:44.000 didn't even know where some of this direction and funding 1:44:44.880 --> 1:44:49.520 was coming from. So those fears exist. Fortunately, law enforcement 1:44:49.560 --> 1:44:52.519 plus national security has done a good enough job so far. 1:44:52.920 --> 1:44:56.439 But good enough is not good enough for government work 1:44:56.880 --> 1:44:57.639 in this case. 1:44:58.560 --> 1:45:01.240 All right, So everyone, you've got to realize there are 1:45:01.280 --> 1:45:04.200 real risks to Americans and to Israelis and to our 1:45:04.280 --> 1:45:08.679 allies and the golf, especially UIE and Saudi Arabia. Let 1:45:08.680 --> 1:45:12.200 me close by asking you in terms of that Turkish 1:45:12.400 --> 1:45:16.640 radar in Syria that's news to me this weekend. Is 1:45:16.680 --> 1:45:18.920 that a real problem? I mean, do the Turks get 1:45:19.000 --> 1:45:21.799 upset if we blow up their radar for Syria? 1:45:23.120 --> 1:45:25.200 The question is do we even need to blow it up? 1:45:25.439 --> 1:45:27.200 Is it something that the Israelis might do or is 1:45:27.240 --> 1:45:29.559 it something that they be able to work around. You know, 1:45:29.640 --> 1:45:32.320 Turkey is no doubt trying to fast replace the Islamic 1:45:32.360 --> 1:45:35.680 Republic as the other Islamist leaning power in Syria. I 1:45:35.680 --> 1:45:37.720 think this is a real challenge for the US to 1:45:37.720 --> 1:45:41.040 be able to deconflict between admittedly a NATO member not 1:45:41.120 --> 1:45:45.000 in good standing, which is Erdowan's Turkey and our major 1:45:45.040 --> 1:45:47.320 partner in the region, Israel, and to make sure that 1:45:47.360 --> 1:45:49.360 they don't come to blows over Syria. But you know, 1:45:49.400 --> 1:45:53.160 make no mistake, Israel has really post October seven, punched 1:45:53.160 --> 1:45:56.120 through a lot a lot of assumptions we have had 1:45:56.160 --> 1:45:58.559 about things that could limit their room for maneuver and 1:45:58.640 --> 1:46:01.639 freedom for military operations. So I would say here, never 1:46:01.680 --> 1:46:02.120 say never. 1:46:02.720 --> 1:46:04.960 All Right, My last question, I am not an optimist 1:46:05.000 --> 1:46:08.000 about regime change. I think this is forty seven years 1:46:08.000 --> 1:46:11.280 of malignancy and you can't cut that tumor out absent, 1:46:11.880 --> 1:46:15.160 but you can certainly stunt its growth and send it backwards. 1:46:15.560 --> 1:46:17.960 Are you an optimist about the regime collapsing? 1:46:19.880 --> 1:46:22.360 Believe it or not, I'm a long term optimist because 1:46:22.400 --> 1:46:24.600 there is no way output through for Uncle Sam and 1:46:24.640 --> 1:46:26.920 the desert. There's no path out of a desert that 1:46:26.960 --> 1:46:30.320 does not include flipping the script on the Iatolahs in Tehran. 1:46:30.400 --> 1:46:32.360 There is no way to pivot to China. There's no 1:46:32.400 --> 1:46:35.120 way to lock down the Western hemisphere. There's no way 1:46:35.160 --> 1:46:37.439 to generate the credibility to deal with Putin or really 1:46:37.439 --> 1:46:40.400 anybody else if you come up short against the Iyatolas 1:46:40.720 --> 1:46:43.320 we have with the exception of Israel right now an 1:46:43.439 --> 1:46:46.599 important intersection in the Middle East. Again, this is not charity, 1:46:46.680 --> 1:46:49.400 This is not missionary work. This is strategy. We have 1:46:49.680 --> 1:46:52.559 fundamentally the most pro American and the most pro Israeli 1:46:52.640 --> 1:46:55.599 population in the heartland of the Muslim Middle East being 1:46:55.680 --> 1:46:59.200 ruled over and repressed by the most anti American and 1:46:59.240 --> 1:47:01.320 the most anti is really government in the heartland in 1:47:01.360 --> 1:47:03.519 the Middle East. And so long as this regime is 1:47:03.520 --> 1:47:05.960 in power, and so long as those ideologies are at 1:47:05.960 --> 1:47:09.240 the helm, a country with the amazing resources that Iran has, 1:47:09.280 --> 1:47:13.040 will continue to force us back in to conflict after 1:47:13.160 --> 1:47:16.240 conflict when we are least prepared for it. So I see, 1:47:16.400 --> 1:47:18.639 you know, the stars aligning. There is really no way 1:47:18.680 --> 1:47:21.599 out put through here. And whether it's in this current 1:47:21.680 --> 1:47:24.440 round or in a potential future around the Trump administration 1:47:24.520 --> 1:47:26.920 or future US administration, I think is going to have 1:47:26.960 --> 1:47:30.000 to realize that this is again not charity. This is 1:47:30.000 --> 1:47:32.360 not Iraq, this is not Afghanistan. There is a world 1:47:32.400 --> 1:47:37.560 of difference between foreign imposed regime change and foreign supported 1:47:37.600 --> 1:47:41.080 regime change. And for again, those strategies, those values, when 1:47:41.120 --> 1:47:43.519 they align, and you seldom get them to align the 1:47:43.560 --> 1:47:46.280 Middle East, you take that shot Bena. 1:47:46.400 --> 1:47:48.519 Thank you so much for joining me. Follow him on 1:47:49.000 --> 1:47:54.320 x at the real b eh nam Ben and it 1:47:54.360 --> 1:47:56.519 will pop up and you ought to follow him and 1:47:56.560 --> 1:47:58.840 the people that he follows, you ought to follow. I 1:47:58.840 --> 1:48:00.800 hope you'll come back as we are on the edge 1:48:00.800 --> 1:48:03.519 of in momentous events in the Middle East. Thank you, 1:48:03.640 --> 1:48:07.920 and I'm stn't Foundation for Defensive Democracies FVD dot org. 1:48:07.960 --> 1:48:10.679 Go and find more there. I'll be right now morning 1:48:10.720 --> 1:48:13.680 glory and emigration and Merga. I'm Hugh Hewlett, joined by 1:48:13.720 --> 1:48:17.479 Admiral Mark Montgomery, retired Rear Admiral from the United States Navy. 1:48:18.000 --> 1:48:21.080 He is with the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. Admiral. 1:48:21.200 --> 1:48:24.559 It was just reported to Actos that Iran has said 1:48:24.640 --> 1:48:26.559 no way, not now, not ever, and never will we 1:48:26.600 --> 1:48:28.960 give up whatever you want, President Trump, and they've cut 1:48:29.000 --> 1:48:32.439 off all communications. It's also reporting President Trump gave them 1:48:32.439 --> 1:48:34.800 a twenty four hour ultimatum. I can't confirm that that's 1:48:34.800 --> 1:48:37.120 what Dacchios is reporting. What do you think is going 1:48:37.160 --> 1:48:37.559 to happen? 1:48:39.160 --> 1:48:41.120 Well, look, the President has done a great job of, 1:48:41.520 --> 1:48:44.800 you know, bringing together his offensive cost and position capabilities. 1:48:44.840 --> 1:48:47.720 That's the not just the aircraft carrier and its air wing, 1:48:47.800 --> 1:48:50.519 but the three destroyers and their Tommac missiles. I mean, 1:48:50.640 --> 1:48:52.559 I don't know this for a fact, but I'm going 1:48:52.600 --> 1:48:56.160 to bet some money that there's a high class SSG 1:48:56.439 --> 1:49:00.160 and you know got you know, Tomahawk equipped submarine with 1:49:00.200 --> 1:49:03.439 lots of Dalmaks on it somewhere close enough in the 1:49:03.640 --> 1:49:08.560 Arabian Gulf Arabian Sea. And then we've got F fifteen's 1:49:08.960 --> 1:49:13.080 and other Air Force fighter squadrons in al Udeid and 1:49:13.120 --> 1:49:15.519 Qatar and other places in the Middle East. And of 1:49:15.520 --> 1:49:17.840 course we've got our B two's ready to go from 1:49:17.880 --> 1:49:20.840 the continent of the United States. That is collectively enough 1:49:20.840 --> 1:49:23.599 cost and position. The other thing he's done is begin 1:49:23.680 --> 1:49:28.200 to maneuver back into theater sufficient army air defense systems 1:49:28.479 --> 1:49:31.400 to begin to protect our eighteen to twenty spots where 1:49:31.520 --> 1:49:37.960 US forces are spread throughout Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE. 1:49:38.800 --> 1:49:40.880 We can't defend all of them all the time, all 1:49:40.920 --> 1:49:43.559 at once, but we can defend some of the larger 1:49:43.640 --> 1:49:48.080 concentration areas against an runting attacks. So the President's creating 1:49:48.120 --> 1:49:52.080 the conditions where he can impose his will on Iran. 1:49:53.320 --> 1:49:59.120 Now, Admiral the National security advisor equivalent in Iran has 1:49:59.160 --> 1:50:01.920 said any attack on anything in Iran will bring a 1:50:01.960 --> 1:50:05.719 response directed at the United States, but also at Israel. 1:50:05.960 --> 1:50:08.440 Do you think Israel can stand up to a fusilade 1:50:09.040 --> 1:50:10.680 like June again. 1:50:11.160 --> 1:50:13.920 Yeah, So let's be clear. If it's the US alone 1:50:13.960 --> 1:50:17.280 striking them, the absolute last thing I would do if 1:50:17.280 --> 1:50:20.800 I was an Iranian planner is attack Israel because I 1:50:20.920 --> 1:50:24.960 just invited an equivalent or larger size of F thirty 1:50:25.000 --> 1:50:27.920 five fifteen fleet to come visit me the next day 1:50:28.160 --> 1:50:30.000 and the day after and the day after and the 1:50:30.080 --> 1:50:34.640 day after, because with US refueling, it's unlimited, and you know, 1:50:35.320 --> 1:50:37.479 until the United States and Israel say, you know, and 1:50:37.520 --> 1:50:41.800 we've had enough. You know, so again, if they do that, 1:50:42.200 --> 1:50:44.640 they're gonna get some serious cost of position. Now they 1:50:44.640 --> 1:50:46.680 may well do it, and then your question is is 1:50:46.680 --> 1:50:51.600 there enough air defense in Israel? And the answer is, 1:50:51.640 --> 1:50:53.559 you know, they'll be challenged like they were last time. 1:50:53.880 --> 1:50:57.719 You know, missiles got through. They have great systems from 1:50:57.840 --> 1:51:00.240 Iron Dome to David Slang to Arrow to the US 1:51:00.360 --> 1:51:02.800 SM three's on the Ages class ships off in the 1:51:02.800 --> 1:51:07.919 Eastern Mediterranean and the remaining THAD elements. US bad elements. 1:51:08.320 --> 1:51:10.720 There's a lot of missile defense there, Hue, but some 1:51:10.840 --> 1:51:14.559 will get through. But Israel is a resilient country. They 1:51:14.560 --> 1:51:18.120 can take that, and their air force can impose maximum 1:51:18.160 --> 1:51:19.559 cost on Iran for doing it. 1:51:20.680 --> 1:51:25.080 Do is our carrier at risk or destroyers at risk? 1:51:25.320 --> 1:51:27.680 And where do you put on the risk level? The 1:51:27.920 --> 1:51:29.960 basin cutter and throughout the region. 1:51:31.400 --> 1:51:34.920 So the carrier and the destroyers have a high quality 1:51:34.920 --> 1:51:37.519 air defense systems, both point defense for the carrier and 1:51:37.560 --> 1:51:40.439 the destroyers and an area air defense for the destroyers 1:51:40.439 --> 1:51:43.040 which would encapsolute the carrier. And of course the air 1:51:43.040 --> 1:51:46.800 wing provides air defense against drones and against cruise missiles, 1:51:46.800 --> 1:51:49.639 probably not against ballistic missiles. So all of that together 1:51:49.760 --> 1:51:52.639 makes them say it makes them relatively secure. You never 1:51:52.680 --> 1:51:55.200 want to be arrogant enough to say nothing can hit me, 1:51:55.680 --> 1:51:58.200 and you need to plan properly and execute properly. But 1:51:58.240 --> 1:51:59.920 I think they're saying, you know, if you look back 1:52:00.280 --> 1:52:05.240 at literally several hundred crews, ballistic missiles and several hundred 1:52:05.360 --> 1:52:08.639 drones launched against our ships in the Red Sea operations 1:52:08.640 --> 1:52:12.000 over two years, none were hit. So we are good, 1:52:12.800 --> 1:52:15.200 but we shouldn't be arrogant. The bases are a different issue. 1:52:15.840 --> 1:52:19.920 Que they can and will be hit if the Runtians 1:52:19.920 --> 1:52:24.559 can figure out which bases have the most porous air 1:52:24.600 --> 1:52:27.200 defense or non existent air defense around them, because I 1:52:27.200 --> 1:52:29.160 don't think we can defend all of them at all 1:52:29.200 --> 1:52:29.559 the time. 1:52:30.360 --> 1:52:34.080 And how many different would you guess how many different 1:52:35.360 --> 1:52:39.920 strikes can be executed within the initiation first wave? How 1:52:39.960 --> 1:52:44.680 many targets can we expect to disable or destroy in 1:52:44.760 --> 1:52:45.360 a first strike? 1:52:46.479 --> 1:52:48.240 I mean, there's so many. There's a lot that goes 1:52:48.280 --> 1:52:49.920 into that. So I'll just say, you know a lot 1:52:49.920 --> 1:52:53.679 of targets take multiple aim points. How many B twos 1:52:53.720 --> 1:52:55.080 do you want to involve? Do you want to really 1:52:55.080 --> 1:52:57.960 stretch your B two you know, to use everything that's 1:52:58.000 --> 1:53:00.559 not involved in your nuclears set aside. You know, some 1:53:00.640 --> 1:53:02.600 of the B twos are reserved for twenty four to 1:53:02.640 --> 1:53:05.320 seven nuclear missions, you know that kind of stuff. So, 1:53:05.439 --> 1:53:07.240 because the B twos can do a lot of striking. 1:53:07.520 --> 1:53:09.360 But what I would do is I do a deliberate 1:53:09.520 --> 1:53:12.880 several hundred strikes a day. You know, two to three 1:53:12.920 --> 1:53:15.040 to four hundred. We could go up to eight hundred 1:53:15.040 --> 1:53:17.200 one thousand if we wanted, but two to three four hundred. 1:53:17.200 --> 1:53:19.760 But dudover sustained ten or twelve day period where you're 1:53:19.800 --> 1:53:23.080 constantly reassessing where did they move, what did they flex? 1:53:23.160 --> 1:53:24.960 What do you show? Because what we're going to try 1:53:24.960 --> 1:53:26.960 to do, my guess is our target set will be 1:53:27.400 --> 1:53:31.280 knock out their ballistic missile inventory plus the ability to 1:53:31.280 --> 1:53:35.000 build future ballistic missiles, knock out their drone inventory plus 1:53:35.040 --> 1:53:37.360 their ability to build future drones. Knock out their crewis 1:53:37.400 --> 1:53:40.760 missile inventory and that production capability and capacity. That's what 1:53:40.800 --> 1:53:42.920 I would take out first. There might be a little 1:53:42.920 --> 1:53:46.800 bit of IRGC leadership strikes involved as well, but I 1:53:46.800 --> 1:53:49.160 would really go for that production something that is rarely 1:53:49.200 --> 1:53:51.080 started to work over in the Twelve Day War but 1:53:51.120 --> 1:53:52.559 did not complete. 1:53:52.840 --> 1:53:55.320 Now, Bro, you were the executive director of the cyber 1:53:55.439 --> 1:54:00.800 Slarium when it was in play. Do the Iranians an 1:54:00.840 --> 1:54:04.160 offensive cyber capability that can be directed at the homeland? 1:54:05.600 --> 1:54:08.439 Yes, But so the yes is they could do something, 1:54:08.920 --> 1:54:12.680 but this is not China or Russia. They can do 1:54:12.960 --> 1:54:15.800 denial of service operations, minor things. I don't think they 1:54:15.800 --> 1:54:20.280 could do major power system disruptions, and they've tried hard 1:54:20.320 --> 1:54:24.000 against Israel and done again minor things but not major. 1:54:24.040 --> 1:54:27.479 In things I think they would struggle against US to 1:54:27.600 --> 1:54:30.720 do a major disruption. The countries that can do that 1:54:30.840 --> 1:54:36.120 are you know, the US, Israel, China, Russia. I don't 1:54:36.160 --> 1:54:38.120 put a run on that list. That doesn't mean they 1:54:38.160 --> 1:54:41.200 can't do They can disrupt, you know, do minor disruptions, 1:54:42.080 --> 1:54:45.240 things that make you know, one water system out here 1:54:45.320 --> 1:54:47.360 or one water system out there, But they're not going 1:54:47.400 --> 1:54:49.200 to be able to do I think that electrical power 1:54:49.200 --> 1:54:51.920 grid takedown that effects like a major city. 1:54:52.560 --> 1:54:54.440 Now, I've had a lot of your colleagues on from 1:54:54.440 --> 1:54:57.240 the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies in the last few weeks. 1:54:57.640 --> 1:55:01.560 They have never not been in the nation and terrorism business. 1:55:01.960 --> 1:55:04.760 Have you ever founded in your ris to study what 1:55:04.920 --> 1:55:08.160 potential they might have either directly or indirectly through their 1:55:08.200 --> 1:55:09.640 proxies in the United States? 1:55:11.000 --> 1:55:14.760 Well, certainly, I mean both Department of Defense friends of mine, 1:55:14.760 --> 1:55:17.360 but also people here at FDD you are under threat 1:55:17.520 --> 1:55:25.040 from Iran. Iran absolutely practices overseas assassinations against their own people, 1:55:25.120 --> 1:55:31.320 their own you know, uh, overseas activists, protesters, dissidents, but 1:55:31.480 --> 1:55:35.560 also against Americans they hold at risk. So the president 1:55:35.840 --> 1:55:38.840 is one they the President's on an Iranian allegedly on 1:55:38.880 --> 1:55:43.160 an Iranian kill list. You know Frank mcgeneral McKenzie, General Millie, 1:55:43.400 --> 1:55:48.560 you know Secretary Esper, John Bolton, Matt Pottinger, you know 1:55:48.600 --> 1:55:52.000 the former, the leadership from the Nationcarity, leadership from Trump 1:55:52.040 --> 1:55:55.360 forty five or broadly on these lists, which is why 1:55:55.400 --> 1:55:59.000 they need security details and protection, and the President among 1:55:59.120 --> 1:56:01.920 most of all, needs to be protected against them. But 1:56:02.040 --> 1:56:04.480 I think it's much more likely that if the President 1:56:04.480 --> 1:56:07.480 decided to do something about the Supreme Leader, that would 1:56:07.480 --> 1:56:09.240 happen before something happened to the president. 1:56:09.920 --> 1:56:14.200 Yeah. No, you were in uniform when the war against 1:56:14.280 --> 1:56:18.840 Libya was undertaken, and that war brought down Libya. I 1:56:18.880 --> 1:56:20.800 don't know that you were in the service when the 1:56:20.840 --> 1:56:23.560 war against Serbia was undertaken. That war brought it down 1:56:23.800 --> 1:56:27.480 ken An air campaign exclusively caused the regime to collapse, 1:56:27.520 --> 1:56:29.520 in your opinion in Iran because I don't think so, 1:56:29.600 --> 1:56:30.920 but I don't know enough. 1:56:31.600 --> 1:56:33.880 So I participated in both of those, and i'd say 1:56:33.880 --> 1:56:34.440 the answers. 1:56:34.520 --> 1:56:34.600 No. 1:56:34.920 --> 1:56:37.480 I mean, I just think the IRGC is one hundred 1:56:37.480 --> 1:56:40.560 and one hundred and twenty five hundred fifty thousand strong. 1:56:41.120 --> 1:56:43.000 They're not going to go down. I mean, most of 1:56:43.000 --> 1:56:49.440 those guys understand that if the opposition takes over, their 1:56:50.040 --> 1:56:52.880 life expectancy is going to shorten dramatically, So they're going 1:56:52.920 --> 1:56:55.160 to fight, stand and fight. So that would be a 1:56:55.200 --> 1:56:58.720 lot of a lot of costant position from the air 1:56:59.320 --> 1:57:02.800 against target mobile ground targets. That's going to be very hard. 1:57:02.840 --> 1:57:04.720 So I think it's very hard. Do I think we 1:57:04.760 --> 1:57:10.120 can create conditions where it's where the governing mechanisms are weakened, Yes, 1:57:10.760 --> 1:57:12.880 but I think it's going to take a lot more. 1:57:13.640 --> 1:57:15.680 I think we have to do. Uh, there's gonna have 1:57:15.680 --> 1:57:17.520 to be a lot more weakening. Personally. Before I did 1:57:17.880 --> 1:57:20.800 this air campaign, I would do three to six months 1:57:21.280 --> 1:57:25.840 of strangulation of their fossil fuel sales. I would grab, 1:57:25.880 --> 1:57:32.560 I would embargo and seize every shadow Fleet ship bringing 1:57:32.600 --> 1:57:35.720 oil from Iran to China. I would put a prize 1:57:35.720 --> 1:57:37.040 crew on it and take it back to the United 1:57:37.080 --> 1:57:42.360 States as as a prize, as our prize. I I 1:57:42.400 --> 1:57:46.200 think that we should put the economic pain onto Iran, 1:57:46.280 --> 1:57:49.960 weaken the regime further, and then do the air campaign. 1:57:51.040 --> 1:57:52.680 Now, Admeral, I don't know if you can stand on 1:57:52.760 --> 1:57:55.040 the segment. If you can tell Duyne and we'll go this. 1:57:55.200 --> 1:57:58.760 But would you answer for me. Uh Karj Island has 1:57:58.840 --> 1:58:01.280 never been on a target list. Why is that? 1:58:03.520 --> 1:58:06.600 I don't let's separate. Has it been our target list 1:58:06.640 --> 1:58:09.640 for us as Have we actually executed a strike? In 1:58:09.680 --> 1:58:11.080 other words, do I think it's targeted? 1:58:11.160 --> 1:58:11.360 Yes? 1:58:11.440 --> 1:58:16.000 Do I think that it's been struck? No, I'm not 1:58:16.080 --> 1:58:19.280 certain why. I've never been in a political discussion we're 1:58:19.320 --> 1:58:22.000 told not to strike it. I just feel that, like 1:58:22.320 --> 1:58:25.000 when we're doing our cost and position back in nineteen 1:58:25.000 --> 1:58:27.600 eighty eight, we did cost a position after the Iraq 1:58:27.680 --> 1:58:32.000 you know, the oil the oil ships being sung. We 1:58:32.080 --> 1:58:35.040 went after their naval ships to punish them for their 1:58:35.080 --> 1:58:35.960 illegal behaviors. 1:58:36.520 --> 1:58:38.920 Operation Praying Man. I got to go to break on 1:58:39.000 --> 1:58:41.440 the Saale News channel. I will find out if Fadmal 1:58:41.520 --> 1:58:44.640 Montgomery can stay with us. Continue watching Town news channel, 1:58:44.640 --> 1:58:46.560 stay tuned to this radio station if being in a car, 1:58:47.080 --> 1:58:49.040 If you can, you'll come back after the break. I'll 1:58:49.080 --> 1:58:51.520 ask him more questions like those I've been asking. Am 1:58:51.600 --> 1:58:55.960 stay tuned, Welcome back America, per I. Mark Montgomery, retarding 1:58:56.200 --> 1:58:58.440 States Navy has stayed with me a senior fellow at 1:58:58.440 --> 1:59:02.320 the Foundation for the Defensive Demand Inocracy. So, Admiral, you've 1:59:02.400 --> 1:59:05.720 followed Donald Trump as I followed him through the news media. 1:59:06.000 --> 1:59:08.040 Maybe you've talked with him off the record. I don't know, 1:59:08.560 --> 1:59:10.440 what do you think he's going to do When he 1:59:10.480 --> 1:59:14.200 issued a twenty four hour ultimatum that the Iranians turned out, 1:59:14.240 --> 1:59:15.800 I have my guess, but what do you think? 1:59:17.360 --> 1:59:19.480 So I think that means he's eventually going to strike, 1:59:20.360 --> 1:59:24.200 I know, and not three months from now, but within 1:59:24.240 --> 1:59:26.480 the next thirty days, because I look, I hope it 1:59:26.520 --> 1:59:29.280 isn't at twenty three hours fifty nine minutes we hit him. 1:59:29.280 --> 1:59:31.880 I mean, and he did get that one twenty four 1:59:31.880 --> 1:59:34.720 hour one and then the Israeli struck within it, but 1:59:34.760 --> 1:59:38.160 that was Israeli forces. You know that what kind of 1:59:38.160 --> 1:59:41.200 on his timeline. I hope that he and General raising 1:59:41.280 --> 1:59:43.440 kine are Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, have had a 1:59:43.440 --> 1:59:46.560 discussion about how, you know, we can't just go at 1:59:46.560 --> 1:59:49.800 the exact moment he said we would go, because that's 1:59:49.920 --> 1:59:54.120 alerting a otherwise not that consequential defense system that someone's coming. 1:59:55.080 --> 1:59:57.840 So my guess is that you know, he'll do something 1:59:57.880 --> 1:59:59.800 at the twenty four hour period, maybe some cost of 2:00:00.000 --> 2:00:05.760 isition through embargo operations like I mentioned, but eventually you know, Hugh, 2:00:05.800 --> 2:00:07.720 I think we're going to strike him. I think he's pissed. 2:00:08.840 --> 2:00:13.160 So talk me through the best case scenario and the 2:00:13.200 --> 2:00:15.960 worst case scenario from your perspective, Admiral Montgomery. 2:00:16.840 --> 2:00:19.840 So, I think the best case scenario is a well 2:00:19.840 --> 2:00:23.360 thought out, deliberate ten to twelve days strike along with Israel. 2:00:23.440 --> 2:00:25.880 Israel might as well be in it with us, because 2:00:25.920 --> 2:00:27.960 as you as we alluded to in the previous segment, 2:00:28.400 --> 2:00:30.760 it's you know, in it or not. They're probably going 2:00:30.840 --> 2:00:33.360 to be the receiver of, you know, a lot of 2:00:33.360 --> 2:00:35.760 ballistic missiles, so might as well be in it from 2:00:35.800 --> 2:00:40.720 the get go. But a well orchestrated, you know, ten 2:00:40.800 --> 2:00:47.040 twelve day campaign that really removes the Iranian ballistic cruise 2:00:47.240 --> 2:00:51.080 in missile and drone production facilities and their existing inventory. 2:00:53.080 --> 2:00:55.960 And then you know, if there are legitimate nuclear targets remaining, 2:00:56.000 --> 2:00:58.320 I'd hit those as well, I don't. I think we 2:00:58.400 --> 2:01:00.480 in the Israelis took care of that, and anything that 2:01:00.520 --> 2:01:02.800 we didn't take care of is a is hidden in 2:01:02.800 --> 2:01:04.280 a way that would be hard for us to hit. 2:01:06.440 --> 2:01:08.440 So you know, I'm not going to count too much 2:01:08.480 --> 2:01:10.680 on that. And then, as we alluded to earlier, there's 2:01:10.680 --> 2:01:13.760 a decision on what type of senior leadership cost a 2:01:13.840 --> 2:01:17.520 position you do. Do you try to kill the supreme leader? 2:01:17.600 --> 2:01:20.640 Do you just work over their senior leadership? And boy, 2:01:20.640 --> 2:01:23.360 they got worked over last year in the Twelve Day War. 2:01:23.880 --> 2:01:26.320 You know, those were big target sets for the Israelis 2:01:26.360 --> 2:01:29.200 and they did some serious damage to the leadership of 2:01:29.280 --> 2:01:31.040 almost all these organizations. 2:01:31.560 --> 2:01:34.600 Would you, if you were advising them, advise him to 2:01:34.680 --> 2:01:37.720 destroy the oil export industry because it seems to me 2:01:37.760 --> 2:01:40.560 the IRGC has no other source of hard currency with 2:01:40.600 --> 2:01:43.480 which to pay the people who depend upon them to 2:01:43.520 --> 2:01:44.000 be paid. 2:01:45.680 --> 2:01:50.920 I wouldn't, but that's because I say, grab the illegal ships, 2:01:51.520 --> 2:01:55.520 you know, the shadow fleet ships delivering the fossil fuel. 2:01:55.840 --> 2:01:57.440 I would go at it that way. I think hitting 2:01:57.480 --> 2:01:59.880 something that you then have to rebuild as your recon 2:02:00.040 --> 2:02:03.800 stituting a country, you know, that's that's that's an expensive endeavor. 2:02:04.000 --> 2:02:06.000 But I look at Ukraine today, or I look at 2:02:06.640 --> 2:02:08.840 you know, a rock in two thousand and seven, in 2:02:08.880 --> 2:02:12.240 two thousand and eight, you know I would not want 2:02:12.280 --> 2:02:16.240 to impose that that rebuilding costs, and I would instead 2:02:16.840 --> 2:02:17.960 try to grab the ships. 2:02:18.840 --> 2:02:21.320 Okay, what is the worst case scenario so that people 2:02:21.400 --> 2:02:24.840 are fully aware. I'm aware of threats to sailors, soldiers, deirmen, 2:02:24.920 --> 2:02:28.640 and marines. I want the audience to hear you talk 2:02:28.680 --> 2:02:29.080 about that. 2:02:30.520 --> 2:02:33.000 Well, look, I mean they will be they will fire 2:02:33.360 --> 2:02:36.600 at some point. This is an existential threat to the 2:02:36.640 --> 2:02:40.760 regime there, and they will fire everything they have and 2:02:40.920 --> 2:02:43.960 they have chemical weapons. You know, they have used chemical 2:02:43.960 --> 2:02:46.480 weapons in the past. So our forces will need to 2:02:46.520 --> 2:02:50.120 be ready for everything. And so you know, I'm from 2:02:50.160 --> 2:02:52.600 the school, you know, you have to assume something could 2:02:52.640 --> 2:02:55.080 get through, So you have to have maximum defenses up. 2:02:55.120 --> 2:02:57.680 You have to you have to establish defensive positions after 2:02:57.680 --> 2:03:00.000 you do your strikes. You have to get everything right. 2:03:01.000 --> 2:03:03.920 You look, our officers, I'm not worried. They're not arrogant. 2:03:03.960 --> 2:03:08.240 They're they they're looking and managing risk properly. The ones 2:03:08.240 --> 2:03:09.920 who are going to be challenged are the ones with 2:03:09.960 --> 2:03:13.560 a fixed GPS. Those are the airfields some of our 2:03:13.600 --> 2:03:16.640 troop concentration areas. You know, we're really going to have 2:03:16.680 --> 2:03:18.840 to defend those well, and they're gonna have to be 2:03:18.880 --> 2:03:21.000 ready for any kind of strike. And you know, we 2:03:21.080 --> 2:03:23.160 have tough soldiers, but you know, in the end of 2:03:23.520 --> 2:03:26.640 you know, ballistic missiles of you know, it's going mocked 2:03:26.720 --> 2:03:29.400 six and weighs a couple thousand pounds. It's going to 2:03:29.480 --> 2:03:30.360 do some damage. 2:03:30.920 --> 2:03:34.760 I remind people that when they targeted Alasad Air Base 2:03:34.920 --> 2:03:37.280 in the aftermath of the killing of soul Money, they 2:03:37.320 --> 2:03:40.360 hit it. They actually hit it. So their missiles are 2:03:40.400 --> 2:03:43.360 not the junk that Saddam as saying had in nineteen 2:03:43.400 --> 2:03:45.160 ninety one. How many of those do they have? 2:03:47.280 --> 2:03:49.680 Well, that's an interesting thing. So Israel did some damage 2:03:49.680 --> 2:03:51.880 to that and they fired a ton you know. By 2:03:51.960 --> 2:03:56.600 all reports, I think that forty to fifty percent were 2:03:56.680 --> 2:03:59.560 either expended or destroyed in the last attacks. And we 2:03:59.600 --> 2:04:02.280 have done a pretty good job and is raised in 2:04:02.320 --> 2:04:05.640 a good job trying to prevent the reconstruct, you know, 2:04:05.760 --> 2:04:08.800 the replenishment of that. But you know, the Chinese have 2:04:08.840 --> 2:04:12.040 been a little duplicitous in this, illegally shipping some moting, 2:04:12.120 --> 2:04:16.440 some of the other chemicals and fuel necessary for some 2:04:16.520 --> 2:04:21.240 of the weapons. So they are reconstituting slightly, you know, 2:04:21.280 --> 2:04:23.440 but this is going to be in the high hundreds, right, 2:04:23.680 --> 2:04:25.920 the totality of these numbers, and the drones are much 2:04:26.000 --> 2:04:29.720 higher numbers. But on the cruise and ballistic missile view, 2:04:29.800 --> 2:04:30.080 that's a. 2:04:30.080 --> 2:04:33.520 Lot can the drums delivered chemical weapons? 2:04:35.960 --> 2:04:38.880 I have not seen that, even in Russia or elsewhere 2:04:38.920 --> 2:04:42.000 that doesn't But that's the answer is could they I'm 2:04:42.040 --> 2:04:44.840 almost sure they could have they I have not seen that. 2:04:45.680 --> 2:04:48.960 Is there any scenario in the front of your mind, 2:04:49.000 --> 2:04:51.480 not some science fiction novel, but anything in the front 2:04:51.480 --> 2:04:55.080 of your mind that would lead to President Trump deploying 2:04:55.120 --> 2:04:56.839 troops in Iran? 2:04:59.040 --> 2:05:01.040 Not in the front of my mind. Look, you asked 2:05:01.080 --> 2:05:03.320 worst case. I mean, we could get into some kind 2:05:03.360 --> 2:05:06.360 of campaign where damage is inflicted on us that the 2:05:06.400 --> 2:05:09.919 President finds to be unacceptable, and then we get ourselves 2:05:09.920 --> 2:05:13.920 into a punitive campaign that includes ground ups. I don't 2:05:13.960 --> 2:05:17.360 foresee that. I just think that, you know, if we've 2:05:17.400 --> 2:05:20.080 learned anything since, you know, in the last twenty four years, 2:05:20.240 --> 2:05:22.120 is to avoid that kind of ground campaign. 2:05:23.160 --> 2:05:25.879 Okay, very last question, Admiral. Do they have the capacity 2:05:25.960 --> 2:05:28.960 to shoot down our stealthy aircraft other than by a 2:05:29.040 --> 2:05:30.160 lucky shot? 2:05:32.840 --> 2:05:37.720 No, now we say today the capability to do it? No, that, 2:05:38.000 --> 2:05:41.520 but again, there could be a ballistic shot. There could 2:05:41.520 --> 2:05:45.000 be a weapon that goes off nearby that you know, 2:05:45.080 --> 2:05:47.160 it's something else, and a piece of frag you know, 2:05:47.240 --> 2:05:49.800 fragment gets into an engine. We do have some single 2:05:49.800 --> 2:05:51.000 engine planes. 2:05:52.560 --> 2:05:55.400 You know there in the United States. I mean we 2:05:55.480 --> 2:05:58.800 have Yeah, it happens here, so it could happen there 2:05:58.840 --> 2:06:01.560 in a war zone. What do we do if that happens, 2:06:01.920 --> 2:06:02.880 We go get him. 2:06:03.520 --> 2:06:06.600 We will have a team standing by. I think geography, 2:06:06.880 --> 2:06:11.240 you know, location, location, location, Downtown Tehran might be a toughie, 2:06:12.240 --> 2:06:17.200 but we'll have uh, we would have teams search and rescue, 2:06:17.440 --> 2:06:21.040 combat search and rescue teams standing by in different locations 2:06:21.160 --> 2:06:24.560 to service different geographies. But there are limitations to that. 2:06:25.640 --> 2:06:29.040 Okay. So in your life as a warrior, how many 2:06:29.040 --> 2:06:31.720 times have you had this feeling about imminent conflict? 2:06:34.480 --> 2:06:37.880 Probably six or seven, And it's. 2:06:37.800 --> 2:06:39.240 Different about this one. 2:06:39.560 --> 2:06:43.440 And it's happened five or six. So no, Look, what's 2:06:43.520 --> 2:06:48.400 unusual is this president's just so forward leaning on the rhetoric, 2:06:48.600 --> 2:06:51.400 you know, which is he does it for effect. I 2:06:51.400 --> 2:06:54.400 mean it's not this is not shirtlish, right, this is 2:06:55.000 --> 2:06:59.760 this is how he seeks leverage. And so it's very 2:06:59.800 --> 2:07:02.240 on predictable. For those of us who haven't dealt you, 2:07:02.240 --> 2:07:05.040 who were not New York real estate people for thirty years, 2:07:05.240 --> 2:07:07.560 we're not used to this. So you know, my take 2:07:07.720 --> 2:07:10.880 is that when a president uses this kind of language, 2:07:11.160 --> 2:07:12.440 go time is coming. 2:07:13.880 --> 2:07:17.440 Eedmiral Mark Montgomery, retired, Amerald, thank you for joining me today. 2:07:17.520 --> 2:07:20.240 We'll stay in touch. I hope you'll be available throughout 2:07:20.280 --> 2:07:23.400 the weeks ahead, as this thing is getting hotter by 2:07:23.440 --> 2:07:26.000 the moment. Welcome back in America. I'm hu here att 2:07:26.000 --> 2:07:29.920 President Trump said yesterday in Iowa. Secretary Rubio said today 2:07:29.920 --> 2:07:33.760 before the Senate Foreign Relations Panel, and Armada is headed 2:07:33.920 --> 2:07:37.800 and is already on station in part to the near 2:07:39.680 --> 2:07:42.080 shore of Iran. What are you going to do with it? 2:07:42.480 --> 2:07:44.280 I don't know, but I'm going to ask Danielle Pletka, 2:07:44.320 --> 2:07:47.120 a senior fellow at the American Enterprises Stude. He studies 2:07:47.200 --> 2:07:50.000 these things. She's the host of What the Hell is 2:07:50.040 --> 2:07:53.120 going on with Mark Tieson in the Washington Post and AI. 2:07:53.200 --> 2:07:55.040 So I'm going to ask you, Danny, what the hell 2:07:55.160 --> 2:08:01.720 is going on? And right now with our flotilla. 2:08:00.200 --> 2:08:03.440 So, we've got a carrier battle group that is in 2:08:03.480 --> 2:08:08.839 the region that is close enough to position to strike Iran. 2:08:09.280 --> 2:08:12.720 We've got some additional assets that the President has moved 2:08:12.840 --> 2:08:17.520 into other countries in the region, including Jordan. There are 2:08:17.760 --> 2:08:21.320 some more things on the way that may provide additional 2:08:21.440 --> 2:08:25.320 military options to the president. I think right now what 2:08:25.480 --> 2:08:29.120 we're looking at is a go no go decision. 2:08:30.880 --> 2:08:33.800 Okay, Now, what is going to happen and what you 2:08:33.920 --> 2:08:37.240 want to have happened maybe different. Tell me first what 2:08:37.280 --> 2:08:39.040 you think is going to happen, and then tell me 2:08:39.120 --> 2:08:41.080 what you hope happens. 2:08:41.240 --> 2:08:46.040 Look, you know, Hugh, I know that the President made 2:08:46.080 --> 2:08:50.800 a go decision and that he was choked out of 2:08:50.800 --> 2:08:54.680 it by the Israelis who felt they were not prepared 2:08:54.920 --> 2:08:59.680 for what the Iranians were threatening, which is ballistic missile strikes. 2:09:00.040 --> 2:09:04.440 The Iranians have spent the last eight months since the 2:09:04.560 --> 2:09:09.800 Summer War rebuilding their ballistic missile capabilities, and they could 2:09:09.840 --> 2:09:14.000 do very substantial damage. I'm hoping that in addition to 2:09:14.120 --> 2:09:18.040 the offensive capabilities we've brought into the region, we've brought 2:09:18.080 --> 2:09:22.600 additional defensive equipment into the region in order to help 2:09:22.640 --> 2:09:25.200 support the Israelis because some of that was pulled out. 2:09:25.280 --> 2:09:27.680 So what do I hope? What I hope is that 2:09:27.720 --> 2:09:31.520 the President goes with his original decision and that he 2:09:31.680 --> 2:09:36.160 strikes Iran, that the people of Iran finally throw off 2:09:36.240 --> 2:09:41.000 this yoke of tyranny. Islamis tyranny that has been strangling 2:09:41.040 --> 2:09:45.080 them for almost forty seven years, and that we're done with, 2:09:45.600 --> 2:09:48.600 what do I think will happen. I think it's touch 2:09:48.680 --> 2:09:52.240 and go. I think the President is profoundly tempted by 2:09:52.280 --> 2:09:56.760 Iranian blandishments, but he's probably making the kinds of demands 2:09:56.800 --> 2:09:58.480 that they don't want to agree to. 2:10:00.480 --> 2:10:03.480 Danny Pike, we've watched him now for five years, including 2:10:03.600 --> 2:10:06.160 the most recent year. He'll say A and not A, 2:10:06.440 --> 2:10:08.160 he'll say B and not B, and then he'll do 2:10:08.480 --> 2:10:12.320 X now, So I mean he is very good at 2:10:12.560 --> 2:10:16.520 the art of deception, not unlike other wartime leaders in 2:10:16.560 --> 2:10:20.640 recent memory. I'm not sure I have any hope that 2:10:20.720 --> 2:10:23.560 anything the United States can do will end this regime. 2:10:24.000 --> 2:10:27.600 It's got forty seven years of tentacles deep into the ground, 2:10:28.080 --> 2:10:30.520 and they have proven with the execution of thirty thousand 2:10:30.520 --> 2:10:33.240 plus people that they will do do whatever they have 2:10:33.280 --> 2:10:35.680 to do to stay in power. Do you really think 2:10:35.920 --> 2:10:38.800 that anything we do can change that. I still want 2:10:38.840 --> 2:10:42.400 to hit them for punitive purposes to hopefully deter such 2:10:42.440 --> 2:10:47.920 future action, but I'm not an optimist about digging them out. 2:10:48.280 --> 2:10:52.160 So this is unknowable, right. 2:10:53.040 --> 2:10:58.560 We are notoriously bad at predicting revolutions. All I can 2:10:58.600 --> 2:11:02.880 say is that what we were seeing until the Iranians 2:11:03.080 --> 2:11:06.960 clamps down very hard over the last couple of weeks, 2:11:07.360 --> 2:11:12.200 what we were seeing was genuine concern inside the regime 2:11:12.280 --> 2:11:14.640 that they had lost control of the country. You know, 2:11:14.800 --> 2:11:17.720 all of the previous revolutions that we've seen in Iran, 2:11:17.800 --> 2:11:21.480 maksa Emini in twenty twenty two, twenty nineteen, the two 2:11:21.520 --> 2:11:24.960 thousand and nine Green Revolution, they were what you could 2:11:25.040 --> 2:11:29.480 call sectoral revolutions. You know, these were efforts by women 2:11:29.640 --> 2:11:34.960 or women and students or others, unions, economic grievances. This 2:11:35.200 --> 2:11:39.080 was the coalescence of the people of Iran for a 2:11:39.360 --> 2:11:43.680 genuine counter revolution. And while you're one hundred percent right, 2:11:44.080 --> 2:11:49.040 this regime's number one priority above all else is staying 2:11:49.080 --> 2:11:53.040 in power. Not nuclear, not missile, not Israel, not Palestinians. 2:11:53.240 --> 2:11:56.480 Staying in power, and they will do anything to hang 2:11:56.560 --> 2:11:59.920 on to it. At the same time, when your people 2:12:00.120 --> 2:12:03.400 a rise against you, the government starts splitting, and we're 2:12:03.480 --> 2:12:06.320 still seeing those splits today. That's what gives me a 2:12:06.360 --> 2:12:08.040 little bit of hope. I'm not going to tell you 2:12:08.160 --> 2:12:10.120 it's a slam dunk or I'm not even going to 2:12:10.120 --> 2:12:11.920 tell you it's fifty to fifty because I don't know. 2:12:12.760 --> 2:12:16.000 But what I do know is that this is the 2:12:16.000 --> 2:12:18.880 closest that we have come. And when I say we, 2:12:19.040 --> 2:12:23.240 I mean the people who stand against this regime. This 2:12:23.320 --> 2:12:25.720 is the closest we've come in forty seven. 2:12:25.600 --> 2:12:29.400 Years, Danny. I have spent the last two weeks talking 2:12:29.440 --> 2:12:33.000 to everyone, beginning with the President, who knows anybody iron 2:12:33.080 --> 2:12:37.000 and is in the public and has an ability to 2:12:37.040 --> 2:12:41.960 deliver commentary and not give away state secrets. And all 2:12:42.000 --> 2:12:44.600 of them have different target sets, and I ask them all, 2:12:44.640 --> 2:12:47.200 why don't we blow up carg Island Because the regime 2:12:47.240 --> 2:12:49.600 has no other money that doesn't come out of carg 2:12:49.640 --> 2:12:52.360 Island or the other two oil terminals, and they're worried 2:12:52.360 --> 2:12:54.200 about China. Some of them want to blow it up. 2:12:54.200 --> 2:12:58.000 What standy PLETK could think about the target list and 2:12:58.040 --> 2:12:59.959 whether or not it ought to include carg Island. 2:13:01.000 --> 2:13:04.520 So it's really funny you say that, Mark Tison and 2:13:04.560 --> 2:13:08.480 I on our podcast, as you've nicely noted what the 2:13:08.480 --> 2:13:10.920 hell is going on, had my colleague Michael Rubin on, 2:13:11.000 --> 2:13:13.720 and Michael Rubin said, you want to hit them hard, 2:13:13.760 --> 2:13:15.720 you want to hit them once you hit them at 2:13:15.840 --> 2:13:18.520 kaj and that will be That is a single point 2:13:18.560 --> 2:13:23.480 of failure for the Iranian regime. Here's the problem. There 2:13:23.480 --> 2:13:27.120 are a lot of serious problems in Syria right now, 2:13:27.480 --> 2:13:32.320 but one of the problems that the president's new friend, 2:13:32.400 --> 2:13:35.320 Ahmed al Shara, the President of Syria, has is that 2:13:35.560 --> 2:13:40.960 sanctions are absolutely strangling his ability to do anything economically. Now, 2:13:41.240 --> 2:13:44.040 set aside what's been going on, because that's all very troubling, 2:13:44.320 --> 2:13:48.520 but prior to that he couldn't deliver economically. One of 2:13:48.560 --> 2:13:53.440 the things about a transition to a democratically ruled Iran 2:13:54.160 --> 2:13:57.840 is that economic life's blood, that is Iran's oil. And 2:13:57.880 --> 2:14:02.280 so my guess is that when they debate hitting harsh, 2:14:02.360 --> 2:14:06.080 not hitting harsh, hitting the oil infrastructure, not hitting it, 2:14:06.320 --> 2:14:10.440 they are asking themselves, if the good guys come to power, 2:14:11.160 --> 2:14:14.320 how will they repair this? How will they have access 2:14:14.360 --> 2:14:18.160 to money fast enough? And you know, again, I think 2:14:18.160 --> 2:14:20.800 that's just a factor. But in terms of the strategic 2:14:20.840 --> 2:14:22.960 importance of it, I couldn't agree. 2:14:22.600 --> 2:14:24.760 More with the folks who said to you, that is 2:14:24.760 --> 2:14:25.840 a good target. 2:14:26.000 --> 2:14:26.280 All right. 2:14:26.560 --> 2:14:27.840 Let me conclude by I said I don't know how 2:14:27.880 --> 2:14:29.720 to pronounce harge island and I don't care, but I 2:14:30.040 --> 2:14:32.920 don't know much about it the geography of of Iran. 2:14:33.120 --> 2:14:36.120 I do care about their being able to hit all 2:14:36.120 --> 2:14:39.880 these bases. I played Secretary of Rubio testimony today. There 2:14:39.880 --> 2:14:43.919 are forty thousand Americans within range of Iran. If President 2:14:43.920 --> 2:14:46.960 Trump pulls the trigger, should it be overwhelming force on 2:14:47.200 --> 2:14:49.960 everything that moves that can hurt American troops? 2:14:51.640 --> 2:14:55.480 Well, I don't think that. From everything I understand so far, 2:14:55.680 --> 2:14:59.600 I don't think that that is the President's inclination. Notwithstanding 2:14:59.640 --> 2:15:03.520 his I do think that the I do think that 2:15:03.680 --> 2:15:07.360 one thing they will have focused on very intensely is 2:15:07.520 --> 2:15:11.640 Iran's ability to strike US troops US allies. And that 2:15:11.680 --> 2:15:14.680 doesn't just mean Israel. That also means Saudi Arabia, it 2:15:14.680 --> 2:15:17.880 means the United Arab Emirates, it means unfortunately, it also 2:15:17.920 --> 2:15:21.000 means Qatar, where we have a base. So my guess 2:15:21.080 --> 2:15:24.680 is that we will have very good protection in place 2:15:24.800 --> 2:15:27.000 and that we will take out that ability before we 2:15:27.080 --> 2:15:31.360 do anything else. So is that something to worry about. Yes, 2:15:31.440 --> 2:15:34.400 But our Pentagon planners and these guys in the Pentagon 2:15:34.440 --> 2:15:36.960 people like, they don't like Donald Trump. They respect they 2:15:36.960 --> 2:15:40.840 don't respect Pete Haigsat. That's not the factor here. These 2:15:40.920 --> 2:15:43.640 are the guys in uniform. This is the Chairman of 2:15:43.720 --> 2:15:46.960 the Joint Chiefs, Raisin Kine. These guys know what they're doing. 2:15:48.160 --> 2:15:50.280 Danny Plikatt always good to talk to. You're on the 2:15:50.280 --> 2:15:52.200 other side of the world, and I appreciate your making 2:15:52.280 --> 2:15:53.880 time for us from the other side of the world 2:15:53.920 --> 2:15:57.840 on this most important conflext Danny Pliitchett, thank you her 2:15:58.000 --> 2:16:00.560 podcast with Martis and is what the Hell's going on? 2:16:00.640 --> 2:16:04.280 Don't miss it. Stay tuned to the Welcome Back America. 2:16:04.360 --> 2:16:08.840 I'm Hugh Hewitt, joined now by Michael Worn, former ambassador 2:16:08.920 --> 2:16:11.360 from Israel to the United States. Doctor Orrin is the 2:16:11.480 --> 2:16:14.040 go to guy on things in Israel, and I want 2:16:14.040 --> 2:16:16.000 to begin by saying, I think everyone in the audience 2:16:16.040 --> 2:16:18.920 shares the relief that all of Israel must share dr 2:16:19.000 --> 2:16:21.600 Orn with the return of the last hostage body. And 2:16:21.840 --> 2:16:24.480 what a horrific chapter do have closed? But I am 2:16:24.520 --> 2:16:26.440 glad that it closed today. I don't know what the 2:16:26.560 --> 2:16:29.560 emotional reaction is in Israel, but relief has got to 2:16:29.600 --> 2:16:30.200 be part of it. 2:16:31.840 --> 2:16:34.200 We look is the first time in two and a 2:16:34.240 --> 2:16:36.960 half years here that I'm not wearing the yellow ribbon 2:16:37.000 --> 2:16:39.560 pin and I don't know if folks ever going to 2:16:39.560 --> 2:16:41.480 take it off of my lapel, but he just came 2:16:41.520 --> 2:16:43.320 off today, several hours ago. 2:16:43.840 --> 2:16:46.600 And I must say our feelings are divided. 2:16:46.920 --> 2:16:50.000 Part of us are sharing the sorrow of the Gavilli 2:16:50.120 --> 2:16:55.520 family whose son was killed performing heroically on twenty three 2:16:55.760 --> 2:16:58.520 In cover seven twenty twenty three E we shared the 2:16:58.560 --> 2:17:01.920 relief of the family receiving his remains. 2:17:01.440 --> 2:17:03.720 For proper burial in the state of Israel. 2:17:04.800 --> 2:17:07.360 And we are are filled with hope for the future 2:17:07.560 --> 2:17:10.360 now that all those hostages have been returned a living 2:17:10.560 --> 2:17:14.440 and deceased, and we can begin to rebuild and take on. 2:17:14.400 --> 2:17:15.040 The next chapter. 2:17:15.120 --> 2:17:17.600 And as you see that next chapter is coming very 2:17:17.640 --> 2:17:18.680 very rapidly, it seems. 2:17:19.120 --> 2:17:22.040 Yeah, well, let's turn to that. I'm going to benham 2:17:22.240 --> 2:17:25.400 Ben Talib Blue for the last hour of today's program 2:17:25.480 --> 2:17:28.480 talking about Iran. I think we are on the brink 2:17:28.520 --> 2:17:31.560 of the United States initiating kinetic activity, because it would 2:17:31.600 --> 2:17:34.840 be a dent in deterrence if we don't. How do 2:17:34.879 --> 2:17:37.800 you see this situation? Does the United States go alone, 2:17:37.800 --> 2:17:39.879 does it go with Israel? Does it follow Israel like 2:17:39.920 --> 2:17:41.360 it did in June of last year. 2:17:42.879 --> 2:17:45.280 Well, it's like that answer on the SATs. It's d 2:17:45.440 --> 2:17:46.200 all of the above. 2:17:46.320 --> 2:17:49.240 Okay, one of three things going to happen in the 2:17:49.320 --> 2:17:51.720 United States goes it alone. And I can't imagine that 2:17:51.760 --> 2:17:55.280 the President has moved so many massive assets to the 2:17:55.320 --> 2:17:57.680 Middle East region and it's not going to use them. 2:17:58.240 --> 2:18:00.879 You take out a pistol and don't use it. 2:18:00.959 --> 2:18:03.640 It projects weakness and not strength, and you become basically 2:18:03.720 --> 2:18:08.640 a Barack Obama not enforcing a red line. God forbid. Secondly, 2:18:09.200 --> 2:18:11.920 does does Israel join? And from my sources in Israel 2:18:11.959 --> 2:18:13.879 tell me that thisel very much wants to join, wants 2:18:13.920 --> 2:18:17.200 to be part of this, and we can bring to 2:18:17.240 --> 2:18:22.640 bear immense military power with our air force and other 2:18:22.680 --> 2:18:25.440 assets we have in the region. And then thirdly, the 2:18:25.520 --> 2:18:28.800 third option is that maybe there is a coup within 2:18:28.840 --> 2:18:32.640 the Iranian leadership, that they ditch the Supreme leader and 2:18:32.840 --> 2:18:34.760 they cut a deal. The cut of deal, which is 2:18:34.800 --> 2:18:38.800 sort of Venezuela like. The regime will will survive, but 2:18:38.840 --> 2:18:40.400 it won't be the same regime. It will be not 2:18:40.480 --> 2:18:42.520 it will not be antried, Western, will be pro Western, 2:18:42.959 --> 2:18:44.879 and the oil will flow not to China but to 2:18:44.879 --> 2:18:45.680 the United States. 2:18:46.160 --> 2:18:47.320 And they will stop. 2:18:47.240 --> 2:18:52.760 Supporting terrorists around the world and cease steep, cease seeking 2:18:52.800 --> 2:18:55.200 our destruction, and that would be a gaming change. It 2:18:55.240 --> 2:18:57.120 wouldn't be the best outcome for the people every round, 2:18:57.160 --> 2:18:59.880 I must say, but it would be certainly better for 2:18:59.920 --> 2:19:01.320 the people of the Middle East generally. 2:19:01.560 --> 2:19:06.120 Now you have founded the Israel Advocacy Group, and the 2:19:06.160 --> 2:19:09.480 Israel Advocacy Group studies things from the perspective of the 2:19:09.520 --> 2:19:13.480 Jewish state. Do you expect if the United States initiates 2:19:13.520 --> 2:19:16.640 a strike as punishment, just punishment for the slaughter of 2:19:16.720 --> 2:19:19.920 thirty thousand of their own citizens and the ongoing incarceration, 2:19:20.040 --> 2:19:23.360 probably torture and murder of others, that whether or not 2:19:23.400 --> 2:19:26.560 you want to get involved, Iran will hit Israel. So 2:19:26.600 --> 2:19:27.920 you have to get in a first punch. 2:19:29.760 --> 2:19:31.400 Well, I don't know if we'll preempt it, but I 2:19:31.440 --> 2:19:34.160 would say we certainly have a cause of belly. Iran 2:19:34.240 --> 2:19:37.359 has been trying to destroy Israel now since its inception, 2:19:37.520 --> 2:19:39.840 since theception of this long Republican nineteen seventy nine, is 2:19:39.879 --> 2:19:43.120 responsible for the deaths of countless thousands of Israelis and 2:19:43.200 --> 2:19:45.480 Jews around the world, not just as really blowing up 2:19:45.520 --> 2:19:49.480 synagogues and Jewish community centers in South America, example in Argentina. 2:19:49.560 --> 2:19:54.840 That's just one example precipitating wars. Iran was behind October seventh. 2:19:54.840 --> 2:19:57.720 It trained and funded Hamas and his Bola. We don't 2:19:57.760 --> 2:19:59.920 have to look for a reason to go to war 2:20:00.080 --> 2:20:04.680 against Iran, but it would help if Iran would. 2:20:04.520 --> 2:20:06.480 Do is you know Harry Derry. 2:20:06.560 --> 2:20:08.080 Harry used to say, and I know you know what 2:20:08.120 --> 2:20:10.760 I mean, go ahead, pull the trigger at making my day, 2:20:11.240 --> 2:20:13.560 and all we need is one missile fired and we'll 2:20:13.600 --> 2:20:16.040 take it down and we'll respond. 2:20:16.240 --> 2:20:17.240 And we have to prepare that. 2:20:17.280 --> 2:20:18.600 We have to prepare for the fact that it won't 2:20:18.600 --> 2:20:20.600 be just Iran firing ballistic missiles at us. 2:20:20.760 --> 2:20:21.400 We assume that. 2:20:21.320 --> 2:20:24.120 They have about one thousand, five hundred of these very 2:20:24.200 --> 2:20:26.920 large ballistic missiles. They carry between two hundred and fifty 2:20:26.920 --> 2:20:29.440 pounds of TNT. It knocks down just not just a building, 2:20:29.480 --> 2:20:32.640 but a neighborhood. And we're going to have to get 2:20:32.680 --> 2:20:35.400 to those rocket launchers as soon as possible. But we'll 2:20:35.440 --> 2:20:38.119 also be targeted by the hoodies once again, maybe by 2:20:38.160 --> 2:20:41.760 his Bullah, certainly by the Syrian and Iraqi pro Iranian 2:20:41.800 --> 2:20:45.240 militias in Iraq and Syrias. So we have to be 2:20:45.280 --> 2:20:48.520 prepared for that type of combat again. And I think 2:20:48.520 --> 2:20:51.560 that Israel now will be prepared to deliver a knockout. 2:20:51.080 --> 2:20:53.680 Blow doctor on. And I heard over the weekend that 2:20:54.200 --> 2:20:58.520 Turkey has supplied Siria's new regime with air defenses that 2:20:58.560 --> 2:21:01.199 were not there in June of last year. Does Israel 2:21:01.240 --> 2:21:05.600 still have a clear sky all the way to Iran 2:21:05.640 --> 2:21:07.920 if it needs it? Oh? 2:21:08.000 --> 2:21:08.879 Yes, I do it? 2:21:08.920 --> 2:21:09.320 Does it does? 2:21:09.600 --> 2:21:11.800 Listen, the Russians were there, We had a clear sky, 2:21:12.120 --> 2:21:15.160 and the Russians had seemingly the or purportedly the most 2:21:15.200 --> 2:21:18.240 advanced anti aircraft systems in the world, the S three hundred, 2:21:18.840 --> 2:21:20.480 because they know if they fire our planes. 2:21:20.240 --> 2:21:20.960 We're going to fire back. 2:21:21.000 --> 2:21:23.240 If it destroyed those systems and then go try to 2:21:23.280 --> 2:21:25.480 sell them to people around the world. So I don't 2:21:25.480 --> 2:21:27.600 think Turkey's going to risk that, even if they have 2:21:27.720 --> 2:21:30.240 moved those anti aircraft systems into Syria, they're not going. 2:21:30.120 --> 2:21:31.000 To fire at our planes. 2:21:31.120 --> 2:21:34.240 And is there a preparation that if this goes off? 2:21:34.760 --> 2:21:37.119 I think it has to happen or President Trump will 2:21:37.120 --> 2:21:40.520 have dented deterrency rebuilt if it does go off. And 2:21:40.560 --> 2:21:42.800 I expected it well at some point before the middle 2:21:42.800 --> 2:21:46.440 of March. What's the high end. I mean, those are 2:21:46.480 --> 2:21:49.080 a lot of missiles with a lot of TNT on them. 2:21:49.200 --> 2:21:51.920 Do people have any idea what's coming at Israel? 2:21:53.600 --> 2:21:54.960 Yeah, they do certainly because we had it. 2:21:55.000 --> 2:21:57.039 We had not a dry run, we had we had it. 2:21:57.040 --> 2:22:00.040 We had a dress rehearsal in June last year, and 2:22:00.360 --> 2:22:01.760 I was under fire from those rockets. 2:22:01.800 --> 2:22:02.600 It's unpleasant, you know. 2:22:02.640 --> 2:22:05.920 We have we have bomb shelters in our houses that 2:22:06.000 --> 2:22:09.080 can with stand a hit by his bubble rocket or 2:22:09.120 --> 2:22:12.520 a Hamas rocket. But the rockets that iman fire us 2:22:12.640 --> 2:22:17.080 were killing people in those safe rooms, very very powerful explosives. 2:22:17.400 --> 2:22:20.440 So we have to brace ourselves for that and and 2:22:20.560 --> 2:22:23.199 listen to people of Israel, as you know, we're indomitable, 2:22:23.240 --> 2:22:25.520 we're strong, and we will do this. 2:22:25.520 --> 2:22:27.720 This is an opportunity that comes about. 2:22:28.280 --> 2:22:29.880 I can say, maybe I want to say a century, 2:22:29.920 --> 2:22:33.480 but I almost want to say a millennium, to free 2:22:33.760 --> 2:22:36.800 the Jewish state from a from an enemy that seeks 2:22:36.800 --> 2:22:38.440 our destruction, not our defeat. 2:22:38.480 --> 2:22:39.760 You know, it's extremely rare. 2:22:39.600 --> 2:22:42.240 In history for one side in a conflict to seek 2:22:42.280 --> 2:22:45.680 to destroy entirely other side. You know, our parents fought 2:22:45.680 --> 2:22:48.199 against Germany and Japan. They didn't want to destroy Germany 2:22:48.240 --> 2:22:51.240 advantaces change their government. It's extremely rare and this is 2:22:51.280 --> 2:22:52.200 our chance to be free of it. 2:22:52.600 --> 2:22:55.800 Ambassador Michael Orn, founder of the Israel Advocatesy Group, thank 2:22:55.840 --> 2:22:59.480 you for joining me. Ballaman, actually Dr Michael Lauran, Doctor 2:22:59.560 --> 2:23:02.199 Michael aren't glad to kick it off with former United 2:23:02.200 --> 2:23:05.480 States Senator Jim Talent. He represented the state of Missouri. 2:23:05.800 --> 2:23:08.240 He's now a senior Fellow at the Reagan Institute for 2:23:08.360 --> 2:23:12.400 the Study of Peace through Its Strength. Senator Talent, we're 2:23:12.400 --> 2:23:15.840 talking off there about Admiral Montgomery yesterday, who was fabulous. 2:23:16.080 --> 2:23:18.400 But you're you've been in the defense business as long 2:23:18.400 --> 2:23:20.480 as he has. Do you think we are on the 2:23:20.560 --> 2:23:24.080 cusp of a very violent war? 2:23:26.480 --> 2:23:28.280 Well, I wouldn't call him. 2:23:28.400 --> 2:23:30.480 I mean all war is violent. I think I think 2:23:30.520 --> 2:23:34.760 we're we're on the cusp of a campaign that will 2:23:34.800 --> 2:23:39.720 be a much more campaign, sustained campaign than we had 2:23:39.720 --> 2:23:43.520 to do to take out their nuclear arsenal. I heard 2:23:43.560 --> 2:23:46.680 Mark say ten to twelve days, which to me seems 2:23:46.720 --> 2:23:50.240 about right, because you there's two objectives here. The first 2:23:50.320 --> 2:23:53.120 is to is to enforce our red line and thereby 2:23:53.320 --> 2:23:56.120 enhance our credibility in the Middle East and around the world. 2:23:56.400 --> 2:23:58.560 President's going to do that be on a shadow of 2:23:58.560 --> 2:24:02.600 a doubt. The second is to further degrade Iran's ability 2:24:02.640 --> 2:24:06.840 to aggress against its neighbors and destabilize the region, which 2:24:06.879 --> 2:24:09.200 is against our national interest. Again if you read the 2:24:09.280 --> 2:24:12.840 national security strategy, so the logical thing to take out 2:24:13.080 --> 2:24:16.560 is their missile capabilities and every and the anti air 2:24:16.600 --> 2:24:19.240 systems that protect him to the extent those are still left. 2:24:19.320 --> 2:24:22.400 And in order to do that job, well, you know, 2:24:22.440 --> 2:24:24.960 it takes a lot of soorties. You're not going to 2:24:25.040 --> 2:24:28.560 do that in today. So one interesting question which Mark 2:24:28.640 --> 2:24:31.200 talked about is whether the Israelis are going to join in. 2:24:31.440 --> 2:24:33.119 I would love to be a fly on the wall 2:24:34.040 --> 2:24:36.600 when Trump is talking with net Yao about that. 2:24:37.720 --> 2:24:40.720 What do you think the preference of the president is. 2:24:40.800 --> 2:24:43.280 I think he would prefer that they not, but I 2:24:43.280 --> 2:24:45.640 don't think he's going to hold him back if one 2:24:45.720 --> 2:24:47.080 missile is shot at. 2:24:47.080 --> 2:24:53.480 Them, right. Look you well, with regard to the Israelis, yeah, 2:24:53.600 --> 2:24:57.960 it's a complicated question. I mean because Israel has moved 2:24:58.600 --> 2:25:02.840 from a containment in the region to a preemption policy 2:25:02.879 --> 2:25:05.360 in the region, and net yeah, who has been very, 2:25:05.480 --> 2:25:07.880 very decisive about doing that, and I think he's got 2:25:07.879 --> 2:25:12.800 the Israeli people behind him, so the Israelis can send 2:25:12.840 --> 2:25:15.000 the message here too. I mean, in the past they've 2:25:15.000 --> 2:25:17.120 tried to do hands off on this sort of thing 2:25:17.560 --> 2:25:21.080 because they felt more vulnerable in the region. If he 2:25:21.200 --> 2:25:23.119 joins in, I think it's a good way of sending 2:25:23.120 --> 2:25:25.560 the message. Look, we're the hedge amount of the region, 2:25:25.600 --> 2:25:27.600 and we're going to act like it when our security 2:25:27.640 --> 2:25:29.959 is at stake. So I think they ought to do it. 2:25:30.000 --> 2:25:33.200 I think Admiral Montgomery was right go ahead and join in. 2:25:34.040 --> 2:25:36.480 You know, I was with a client back in my 2:25:36.640 --> 2:25:40.440 law practice days in Nevada, big swinger, Jewish man, big 2:25:40.440 --> 2:25:44.640 sport of Israel, when Israel did not respond to Saddam's scuds, 2:25:44.879 --> 2:25:46.959 and he couldn't believe it. I was in his office. 2:25:47.000 --> 2:25:49.520 He could not believe that they were not responding. But 2:25:49.600 --> 2:25:52.360 of course Secretary Baker and George H. W. Bush asked 2:25:52.360 --> 2:25:55.440 them not to respond. I don't think Donald Trump's in 2:25:55.480 --> 2:25:58.520 the business of asking people not to respond if they 2:25:58.560 --> 2:25:59.000 want to. 2:26:00.320 --> 2:26:05.360 And I think President Trump adjusts better to changes in 2:26:05.760 --> 2:26:09.560 a strategic in strategic positioning, in other words, in the 2:26:09.600 --> 2:26:15.039 past Israel has acted sometimes like they can't act, they 2:26:15.120 --> 2:26:18.480 can't be a normal do what a normal nation would 2:26:18.480 --> 2:26:21.360 do in a normal situation, okay, which is to take 2:26:21.400 --> 2:26:25.640 advantage of this to attack and degrade their chief aggressor. 2:26:26.080 --> 2:26:28.120 I think the Israelis are done with that, and I 2:26:28.120 --> 2:26:31.560 think Trump is fine with it. Trump is not burdened 2:26:32.240 --> 2:26:35.760 by thirty or forty years of assumptions about the Middle East. 2:26:35.800 --> 2:26:38.959 I mean, he's rethinking the region, he's rethought it, and 2:26:39.040 --> 2:26:41.920 I just think to look, anybody else in Israel's position, 2:26:42.000 --> 2:26:45.960 with Israel's power, would join us in this attack, and 2:26:46.360 --> 2:26:48.640 so I'd like to see him do it now. Again, 2:26:48.920 --> 2:26:50.760 there are a whole lot of factors working that you 2:26:50.879 --> 2:26:53.720 and I don't know about. So maybe they won't, but 2:26:54.600 --> 2:26:57.520 we're certainly going to use their intel, particularly if we 2:26:57.560 --> 2:27:00.680 go after command and control with the IRGC. They're going 2:27:00.720 --> 2:27:02.000 to tell us where everybody is. 2:27:02.560 --> 2:27:06.320 Would you expect any of the Golf Coordinating Council countries 2:27:06.360 --> 2:27:07.000 to join in? 2:27:08.800 --> 2:27:15.080 No, accepted defensively. When the Iranians respond, and you, I 2:27:15.120 --> 2:27:18.480 would reassure people, we're very good at this kind of 2:27:18.520 --> 2:27:21.800 mission when we have time to build up, to plan, 2:27:22.440 --> 2:27:26.200 and when the environment is basically noncompetitive. I mean, this 2:27:26.360 --> 2:27:30.040 is not the South China Sea right where there are 2:27:30.440 --> 2:27:34.240 thousands and thousands and thousands of anti ship crews and 2:27:34.280 --> 2:27:37.600 ballistic missiles along the coast of China. This is a 2:27:37.640 --> 2:27:41.720 basically uncompetitive environment. We're good at this, and so I'm 2:27:41.720 --> 2:27:45.160 not saying that we can't take any casualties. But I 2:27:45.240 --> 2:27:48.720 feel pretty confident in our force protection package. 2:27:49.320 --> 2:27:51.160 Jim, you and I are the same, Ahure. I think 2:27:51.200 --> 2:27:54.080 you can remember they build up to the nineteen ninety 2:27:54.160 --> 2:27:56.880 one war, which kicked off I think on March one 2:27:57.000 --> 2:28:00.840 or thereabouts nineteen ninety one, and the injections of the 2:28:00.959 --> 2:28:03.920 dead on our team on our side was going to 2:28:03.959 --> 2:28:07.280 be in the five digits and people were horrified at that, 2:28:07.360 --> 2:28:09.840 but it was going to be five digits. Men lost 2:28:09.879 --> 2:28:12.640 their lives, but it was in the hundreds. It might 2:28:12.680 --> 2:28:15.920 not even been over one hundred. I can't remember. In 2:28:16.000 --> 2:28:20.000 the Panama Canal invasion in nineteen ninety one, we lost 2:28:20.000 --> 2:28:24.480 twenty three some soldiers were killed on Heartbreak Ridge in Grenada. 2:28:25.160 --> 2:28:27.959 And then when the two thousand and three invasion happened, 2:28:28.040 --> 2:28:31.000 we thought chemical weapons and everything was going to rain 2:28:31.080 --> 2:28:33.400 down on our troops and didn't happen. Do you think 2:28:33.879 --> 2:28:37.760 that the false premise of four wars with relatively low 2:28:37.840 --> 2:28:42.600 casualties as Americans complacent about the risk our troops face 2:28:42.680 --> 2:28:43.359 right now. 2:28:44.320 --> 2:28:46.240 Well, we had a couple of wars after that, you 2:28:46.480 --> 2:28:49.720 were unfortunately, you know, we took a lot of casualties, 2:28:49.760 --> 2:28:53.440 so relatively speaking, compared to those other engagements, we took 2:28:53.480 --> 2:28:56.039 a lot of casualties. So no, I think people are worried. 2:28:56.520 --> 2:29:02.080 I think Donald Trump is uniquely reluctant to use American 2:29:02.280 --> 2:29:06.680 military power in a sustained combat type situation. Now, I 2:29:06.720 --> 2:29:09.520 don't know that we'd call ten, twelve, fourteen days all 2:29:09.600 --> 2:29:13.039 that sustained. So this is a president I think who 2:29:13.520 --> 2:29:16.240 uniquely and sometimes I worry about it. Sometimes I think 2:29:16.280 --> 2:29:20.360 maybe he's too reluctant. So we're not going to go 2:29:20.440 --> 2:29:25.640 in until we're ready, until we have in place what 2:29:25.720 --> 2:29:27.840 we need to protect our people as much as they 2:29:27.879 --> 2:29:29.840 can be protected. That's why I say I have a 2:29:29.840 --> 2:29:32.640 fair amount of confidence. I mean, you never know with war, 2:29:33.959 --> 2:29:37.280 and he's got to pull the trigger. It's just a 2:29:37.360 --> 2:29:41.120 question now of when. And I've been saying this on 2:29:41.160 --> 2:29:42.920 the show and on the pod now for the better 2:29:42.959 --> 2:29:44.840 part of a month. So I should be careful, but 2:29:45.120 --> 2:29:46.720 I've got to believe it's going to be soon. 2:29:47.680 --> 2:29:50.920 The podcast that center Talon is referring to a Twain's 2:29:50.920 --> 2:29:53.320 World on which you appear every week when Dwayne gets 2:29:53.320 --> 2:29:56.120 together with the Senator, and it's great national security stuff. 2:29:56.680 --> 2:30:00.240 What do you expect follows a sustained campaign? Bit of 2:30:00.280 --> 2:30:05.360 its two weeks more Molas, more IRGC or perhaps a 2:30:05.440 --> 2:30:08.680 different military general, and the way that CC took power 2:30:08.800 --> 2:30:10.680 back from the most of brotherhood in Egypt. 2:30:12.280 --> 2:30:14.320 Well, I heard one of I think it was Dan 2:30:14.400 --> 2:30:16.960 sen Or's interviewees. You know, he has so many good ones. 2:30:17.000 --> 2:30:20.000 I can't remember exactly which one, but he said, the 2:30:20.040 --> 2:30:22.200 next leader of Iran is not going to be wearing 2:30:22.200 --> 2:30:24.320 a turbine. He's going to be wearing a military cap. 2:30:24.360 --> 2:30:28.120 And I would really expect that when it happens. I 2:30:28.120 --> 2:30:31.240 don't think we should necessarily expect that to happen as 2:30:31.240 --> 2:30:33.520 a result of this campaign, though, because I don't think 2:30:33.879 --> 2:30:37.440 the purpose of it is to achieve regime collapse. What 2:30:37.520 --> 2:30:40.280 I would expect we'll do after that is really go 2:30:40.440 --> 2:30:44.960 after their oil shipments, their shadow oil fleet. I think 2:30:45.000 --> 2:30:47.680 that's a better alternative than carg Island, which you've talked 2:30:47.720 --> 2:30:51.840 about you, because we don't want to cripple the nation. 2:30:51.959 --> 2:30:54.840 We want to cripple the regime. And you can do 2:30:54.920 --> 2:30:57.959 that by going after their oil shipment. So, assuming we 2:30:58.000 --> 2:30:59.840 have the assets to do it, we can do to them. 2:31:00.080 --> 2:31:02.920 We're doing to Venezuela now and choke off revenue. Further 2:31:02.959 --> 2:31:03.640 from the regime. 2:31:04.440 --> 2:31:07.600 Do you think that they are in touch with reality 2:31:07.720 --> 2:31:10.000 enough to know what happens where they do inflec serious 2:31:10.000 --> 2:31:13.120 casualties on American troops And I mean, you've got to 2:31:13.200 --> 2:31:15.720 hit on a destroyer. I think Donald Trump would go 2:31:15.800 --> 2:31:16.400 through the roof. 2:31:17.200 --> 2:31:20.199 Oh yeah, no, I don't think so. You. I think 2:31:20.280 --> 2:31:23.760 this is the collapse and they're going to be very 2:31:23.800 --> 2:31:25.720 This is kind of like Hitler and the Bunkers what 2:31:25.800 --> 2:31:28.480 I think. I mean, this is the collapse of all 2:31:28.520 --> 2:31:34.680 their ideological and eschatological pretensions. I think they'll be desperate 2:31:34.680 --> 2:31:36.880 to do anything to prevent it. And the question is 2:31:37.720 --> 2:31:41.040 which the Israelis may know I don't know, is are 2:31:41.120 --> 2:31:45.080 there regime factions that are drawing back from that kind 2:31:45.120 --> 2:31:49.080 of a scorched earth policy who will act if necessary. 2:31:49.160 --> 2:31:51.920 I think they've been waiting for the Supreme Leader to die, 2:31:52.160 --> 2:31:54.600 which makes sense. I mean, that's the time for a 2:31:54.640 --> 2:31:58.600 transition to something new. So, but are there forces that 2:31:58.640 --> 2:32:00.800 are prepared to say, at some point point, no, you 2:32:00.840 --> 2:32:03.400 know what, We're going to hurry that along. You know, 2:32:03.480 --> 2:32:06.800 we'll bring a pillow to his bedside in the bunker 2:32:07.000 --> 2:32:10.360 and and and we'll get changed before that. And I 2:32:10.400 --> 2:32:12.840 don't know, I don't know that anybody knows. If anybody knew, 2:32:12.840 --> 2:32:14.119 it would be the Israelis. 2:32:14.760 --> 2:32:17.080 I'm watching his son. His son is a master that 2:32:17.200 --> 2:32:20.160 fortune of many, many hundreds of millions of dollars outside 2:32:20.160 --> 2:32:24.080 of the country. And that's not the action of a 2:32:24.120 --> 2:32:26.480 confident next in lines fame leader, is it. 2:32:27.720 --> 2:32:27.920 No? 2:32:28.240 --> 2:32:31.800 And I've got to believe that there are people close 2:32:31.840 --> 2:32:33.800 to him who aren't quite as willing to die as 2:32:33.840 --> 2:32:36.920 he may be. I mean, there's a limit to how 2:32:37.000 --> 2:32:39.520 much you know the top leader is one thing, or 2:32:39.560 --> 2:32:43.760 the people immediately around him. But I've never thought that 2:32:44.920 --> 2:32:47.880 when you broad it out the RGC generals and the 2:32:47.879 --> 2:32:51.440 rest of it, that they're as willing, you know, to 2:32:51.480 --> 2:32:55.920 meet their maker as the supreme leader is. So if 2:32:55.920 --> 2:33:00.360 it happens soon, if regime collapses, collapse happens soon, that'll 2:33:00.400 --> 2:33:01.560 be what will cause it. 2:33:02.800 --> 2:33:05.360 We will look for that, and we will look for 2:33:05.440 --> 2:33:07.680 center talent to be back next week. He's also a 2:33:07.680 --> 2:33:10.840 frequent guest on Dwayne's World. I don't know how often 2:33:10.920 --> 2:33:14.320 Dwayne are doing that. He's thinking about rekindling the After Show. 2:33:15.160 --> 2:33:16.879 Be careful, Jim, He'll cut the end of that on 2:33:16.920 --> 2:33:20.280 a daily basis, Morning Glory and evening Grace Americas. I 2:33:20.400 --> 2:33:23.320 promised all day. Richard Goldberg joins us. He is with 2:33:23.360 --> 2:33:26.480 the senior director at the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies 2:33:26.800 --> 2:33:29.480 and he was in the Trump first term at the 2:33:29.560 --> 2:33:32.360 National Security Council with the Iran portfolio, and the Trump 2:33:32.440 --> 2:33:36.280 second term he helps stand up the National Energy Dominance 2:33:36.320 --> 2:33:39.080 Council of Secretary of Berghoman writer, You've heard here a lot. 2:33:39.360 --> 2:33:42.480 They went back to the FDD to study Iran, and boy, 2:33:42.520 --> 2:33:45.000 what a timely time it is. Richard. Welcome to you. 2:33:45.040 --> 2:33:47.879 Hear a show. Great to have you, great to be 2:33:47.959 --> 2:33:48.600 great to be here. 2:33:48.640 --> 2:33:50.080 Thank you so much so Richard. 2:33:50.160 --> 2:33:53.080 Since President Trump appeared on the program, you know, two 2:33:53.120 --> 2:33:55.800 weeks and two days ago and said he's going to 2:33:55.879 --> 2:33:58.000 hit Iran harder than he's ever been hit before. They 2:33:58.000 --> 2:34:00.200 have ever been hit before. If they keep killing people. Well, 2:34:00.640 --> 2:34:03.480 I've had on Mark Davitz, your colleague. I've had on 2:34:03.640 --> 2:34:07.359 Michael Durand from Hudson. I've had on Ben ben Tellerblue, 2:34:07.400 --> 2:34:11.240 your colleague. I've had on I will have on Kareem Sadjapoor. 2:34:11.720 --> 2:34:15.320 I think Thursday have Eve ready gore from Israel. You 2:34:15.959 --> 2:34:18.280 I'm doing my best to get people ready for what 2:34:18.360 --> 2:34:22.039 will be a very big kinetic collision if it happened. 2:34:22.320 --> 2:34:24.279 Do you think it's going to happen with Iran? 2:34:26.440 --> 2:34:28.840 I do think something is going to happen. I think 2:34:28.879 --> 2:34:34.920 the President is a president of determination commitment. I think 2:34:34.959 --> 2:34:38.880 he likely has his mind already set on some sort 2:34:38.920 --> 2:34:43.400 of outcome here and has asked his senior advisors to 2:34:43.520 --> 2:34:46.920 make sure his options are set and the force posture 2:34:47.000 --> 2:34:50.160 matches the options that are most aligned with what he 2:34:50.200 --> 2:34:53.720 wants to achieve. And I think he knows that as 2:34:53.800 --> 2:34:57.039 more and more of this information comes out, the intelligence 2:34:57.080 --> 2:34:59.720 that gets leaked, as some of the Internet peaks back 2:34:59.800 --> 2:35:02.000 on in Iran, his phone calls are being made, as 2:35:02.040 --> 2:35:05.800 pictures and videos come out, he and the rest of 2:35:05.800 --> 2:35:07.760 the world sees that a red line that he drew 2:35:07.879 --> 2:35:11.039 was obliterated by this regime. He is aware of that. 2:35:11.520 --> 2:35:15.400 The promises of no executions apparently have continued in secret 2:35:15.480 --> 2:35:17.800 as well. And when you start seeing a death toll 2:35:17.920 --> 2:35:21.960 in the tens upon tens of thousands, with more still 2:35:22.000 --> 2:35:25.640 in secret locations being held, with more executions potentially on 2:35:25.640 --> 2:35:28.879 the way, that alone, of course obliterates the Red line. 2:35:29.320 --> 2:35:32.200 But he also sees a regime that's teetering, he sees 2:35:32.640 --> 2:35:36.360 historic opportunity, and as he told you, he's already in 2:35:36.440 --> 2:35:40.440 many ways sealed his fate in history as somebody like 2:35:40.560 --> 2:35:44.320 Ronald Reagan who changes the world, whether it's last June 2:35:44.680 --> 2:35:48.080 with the B two bombers Operation Midnight Hammer, whether it's 2:35:48.080 --> 2:35:51.440 the most recent operation against Maduro the Abraham of course 2:35:51.480 --> 2:35:55.320 before that, but you know what, Ronald Reagan brought down 2:35:55.320 --> 2:35:57.480 the Soviet Union, a major threat to the United States, 2:35:57.480 --> 2:36:02.640 transformed the entire world. This president could still bring down 2:36:02.720 --> 2:36:06.360 one of those major threats that is world changing, world 2:36:06.440 --> 2:36:08.920 history changing, if he contributes to the collapse of the 2:36:08.959 --> 2:36:09.920 Islamic Republic of. 2:36:09.879 --> 2:36:14.320 Iran, and in so doing, if that happens, having cut 2:36:14.320 --> 2:36:17.720 off the People's Republic of China from Venezuela and oil, 2:36:18.200 --> 2:36:21.920 he may succeed in cutting off Iran from setting hot 2:36:21.959 --> 2:36:24.200 oil to China, thought have to buy their oil in 2:36:24.280 --> 2:36:26.760 the world market. It's not that they won't get oil, 2:36:26.760 --> 2:36:29.160 it's just that they will pay a lot more for it. Richard, 2:36:29.520 --> 2:36:31.879 does that not serve our strategic interests as well? 2:36:35.000 --> 2:36:38.080 I mean, I think if you, for some reason don't 2:36:38.080 --> 2:36:41.400 care at all about thirty five thousand people being mass 2:36:41.480 --> 2:36:44.640 murdered in forty eight hours and executions going on, you 2:36:44.720 --> 2:36:47.760 just say, not our issue, not our national interests. And 2:36:48.040 --> 2:36:50.000 for some reason you didn't even care about the fact 2:36:50.000 --> 2:36:52.600 that Iran, as the leading state sponsor of terrorism in 2:36:52.640 --> 2:36:56.000 the world, continues to plot war against the United States, 2:36:56.040 --> 2:36:58.280 has tried to assassinate the President of the United States 2:36:58.280 --> 2:37:01.359 while he was out of office. Certainly try to assassinate 2:37:01.440 --> 2:37:04.640 him again if they remain in power after he leaves office, 2:37:04.920 --> 2:37:06.720 and all of the other bad things they do to 2:37:07.160 --> 2:37:09.560 tie us down in the region, All the gold Star 2:37:09.640 --> 2:37:13.680 families around the country who have grieving, have lost loved ones, 2:37:13.720 --> 2:37:17.040 whether in Iraq of Beirut, Cobar Towers over many years, 2:37:17.120 --> 2:37:20.640 in Israel, Gaza, all these different places because of the 2:37:20.680 --> 2:37:23.039 Islamic Republic of Iran. If for some reason you didn't 2:37:23.040 --> 2:37:25.680 see that as a major national security thread to us. 2:37:26.280 --> 2:37:29.160 But you subscribe to great power competition. You say it's 2:37:29.160 --> 2:37:33.120 all about China, that's our greatest existential threat of the century. 2:37:33.760 --> 2:37:37.200 Then let me tell you about why the President is 2:37:37.280 --> 2:37:41.080 executing the most brilliant grand strategy in history right now 2:37:41.080 --> 2:37:44.480 for the United States and taking apart the axis of 2:37:44.640 --> 2:37:49.199 enablers for the top acxis of aggressors against the United States. 2:37:49.640 --> 2:37:53.040 As China starts seeing all of its chess pieces falling 2:37:53.080 --> 2:37:56.880 off the board, as Russia starts seeing its chess pieces 2:37:56.920 --> 2:38:01.640 falling off the board, started with Asia collapsing in Syria 2:38:02.120 --> 2:38:04.360 and then Iran being able to do nothing as the 2:38:04.400 --> 2:38:08.560 President obliterates its nuclear program, Maduro being taken out in 2:38:08.560 --> 2:38:12.320 the middle of the night in fifteen minutes by delta force. 2:38:12.879 --> 2:38:16.400 China is seeing all of its Belt and Road initiatives, 2:38:16.760 --> 2:38:20.080 all of its investments, all of its key supply lines 2:38:20.120 --> 2:38:24.000 being threatened, potentially all the aggressors that are the middle 2:38:24.000 --> 2:38:26.400 powers that can threaten the United States and distract us 2:38:26.720 --> 2:38:30.640 potentially being taken off the game board. And remember, for 2:38:30.879 --> 2:38:35.760 China heavily dependent on energy imports, one of their key weaknesses. 2:38:36.280 --> 2:38:39.760 Fifty percent of their energy imports come through the Strait 2:38:39.800 --> 2:38:42.680 of Hormuz, that's obviously Saudi and the rest of the 2:38:42.720 --> 2:38:45.800 Gulf plus Iran. But if Iran is no longer a 2:38:45.800 --> 2:38:48.880 threat there, if you're able to constrain that oil supply, 2:38:49.440 --> 2:38:52.480 and you've taken off the ability for Maduro to supply 2:38:53.080 --> 2:38:56.039 a few hundred thousand barrels per day going up from 2:38:56.120 --> 2:38:59.360 Venezuela as well, they are left with the potential of 2:38:59.400 --> 2:39:01.720 having to rely on guess who, the United States of 2:39:01.760 --> 2:39:04.959 America from whom they could be buying more oil, and 2:39:05.040 --> 2:39:08.440 other partners where we would have strong relations, and obviously 2:39:08.520 --> 2:39:11.760 the US Navy the ability to interdict in time of conflict. 2:39:11.800 --> 2:39:14.520 That's bad grand strategy for China, that's very good grand 2:39:14.560 --> 2:39:15.640 strategy for US. 2:39:16.120 --> 2:39:20.160 So, Richard Goldberg, I believe that if the President fails 2:39:20.240 --> 2:39:23.640 to strike it Iran, it will dent the deterrence that 2:39:23.720 --> 2:39:27.520 he is so masterfully rebuilt in the first year following 2:39:27.600 --> 2:39:31.279 the disastrous years of the Locust under Joe Biden. However, 2:39:31.800 --> 2:39:35.120 I also don't believe that's going to happen. I think 2:39:35.160 --> 2:39:37.680 what he was doing with me, and then he followed 2:39:37.720 --> 2:39:40.480 with Sean Hannity, and he followed with Tony Dakoppel and 2:39:40.520 --> 2:39:42.879 he did it on true social was trying to prevent violence. 2:39:42.959 --> 2:39:46.320 It did not work ever since then, since the massacre. 2:39:46.320 --> 2:39:48.640 And you use the term thirty five thousand, I've seen 2:39:48.680 --> 2:39:52.880 now today as highest forty thousand. That's almost unimaginable. But 2:39:52.920 --> 2:39:55.800 the president is a visual person. Do you think he 2:39:55.920 --> 2:39:59.360 has a good flow of information from inside Iran? Is 2:39:59.400 --> 2:40:02.280 to exact how widespread the massacre was. 2:40:04.120 --> 2:40:07.039 I think that picture is increasing, and the flow of 2:40:07.080 --> 2:40:11.240 information is obviously accelerating. I do actually think that it's 2:40:11.280 --> 2:40:13.920 possible he did not have a good flow of information 2:40:14.040 --> 2:40:17.960 that first weekend when the massacres were taking place, most 2:40:18.000 --> 2:40:21.000 mainstream media were downplaying the reports that I and others 2:40:21.000 --> 2:40:24.840 were hearing from inside of Iran. The leading opposition news source, 2:40:24.879 --> 2:40:28.120 Iran International, was reporting throughout the weekend five thousand and 2:40:28.200 --> 2:40:30.960 twelve thousand. We were hearing a lot of the stories 2:40:30.959 --> 2:40:33.680 that are now being confirmed through the weekend, But you 2:40:33.680 --> 2:40:35.560 would hear from a lot of sources in government that's 2:40:35.600 --> 2:40:38.840 just not matching what we're hearing so far, both here 2:40:38.879 --> 2:40:41.560 in the United States, in Great Britain and elsewhere where. 2:40:41.560 --> 2:40:45.240 We would rely on the intelligence community to validate rumors 2:40:45.840 --> 2:40:48.600 coming out of Iran. There's no way to deny what's 2:40:48.640 --> 2:40:51.000 happening now. Millions of people came out in the streets. 2:40:51.320 --> 2:40:54.320 There was mass murder. The blood is still stained across 2:40:54.400 --> 2:40:57.920 Tehran and other major cities. People are still trying to 2:40:57.959 --> 2:41:01.680 identify their loved ones who are being held hostage, even 2:41:01.680 --> 2:41:06.039 as dead bodies throughout Iran. Right now, the fear of 2:41:06.080 --> 2:41:08.800 a continued crack down if anybody else comes out into 2:41:08.800 --> 2:41:11.840 the streets, But also understanding that this is a regime 2:41:12.240 --> 2:41:14.760 that teeters. Why did people come out into the streets. 2:41:15.040 --> 2:41:19.160 There was an economic crisis that Donald Trump helped facilitate 2:41:19.240 --> 2:41:23.240 and accelerate. There has been the snapback of UN sanctions, 2:41:23.280 --> 2:41:25.480 and so there's an understanding in the market that the 2:41:25.480 --> 2:41:28.280 old Iron nuclear Deal is never coming back. Banks were 2:41:28.280 --> 2:41:31.960 teetering on the edge of collapse. One did collapse. There's 2:41:32.000 --> 2:41:35.600 a water crisis because of the mismanagement of this maniacal, 2:41:35.680 --> 2:41:38.960 corrupt regime. There is a power energy crisis where the 2:41:39.000 --> 2:41:43.080 grid is experience blackouts throughout Iran. So people hate this regime. 2:41:43.120 --> 2:41:44.800 They already hate them for what they do to the 2:41:44.800 --> 2:41:47.560 people repression wise, as you can see, they hate them 2:41:47.600 --> 2:41:50.600 because their standard of living continues to go down into 2:41:50.600 --> 2:41:53.920 the gutter. This has spread from upper class to middle class, 2:41:53.920 --> 2:41:58.119 the lower class, religious, secular, all across Iran. And if 2:41:58.120 --> 2:42:00.480 millions of people were willing to take to this streets 2:42:01.040 --> 2:42:04.160 but right now are deterred by machine guns and IERGC 2:42:04.360 --> 2:42:08.279 forces out there, if those IRGC forces somehow are dispersed 2:42:08.400 --> 2:42:11.200 have to run away themselves, stands to reason millions of 2:42:11.200 --> 2:42:14.160 people would come back into the streets if they see 2:42:14.400 --> 2:42:18.080 help on the way, as the President promised. And frankly, 2:42:18.680 --> 2:42:22.320 we long term whether or not this collapses tomorrow. Remember 2:42:22.400 --> 2:42:24.800 nineteen seventy eight to nineteen seventy nine took a year 2:42:25.200 --> 2:42:28.360 before the Shah had to flee Iran. Even if this 2:42:28.440 --> 2:42:31.039 is a long term situation and this regime does not 2:42:31.080 --> 2:42:34.120 immediately collapse or the Supreme Leader has taken out and 2:42:34.160 --> 2:42:38.119 you don't have a full change in regime, the RGC 2:42:38.200 --> 2:42:40.800 steps in a different successor from the MULLA step in. 2:42:41.520 --> 2:42:44.560 If you're able to use this opportunity to continue to 2:42:44.640 --> 2:42:47.720 degrade and dismantle a direct threat to the United States, 2:42:48.240 --> 2:42:51.960 a direct tool of the CCP in China and putin 2:42:52.080 --> 2:42:56.800 in Moscow by degrading their missile program, their navy, their 2:42:56.879 --> 2:43:00.160 drone program, and their command and control. You do a 2:43:00.200 --> 2:43:02.440 great service to the United States. You enforce a red 2:43:02.480 --> 2:43:05.040 line and show the enemies of America this president continues 2:43:05.080 --> 2:43:08.080 to mean business. And maybe yes, you give the opportunity 2:43:08.080 --> 2:43:10.600 for millions of Iranians to come back out and take 2:43:10.640 --> 2:43:13.440 this country back for Iran, which will be a game 2:43:13.560 --> 2:43:15.320 changer for US national security. 2:43:15.879 --> 2:43:18.439 Don't go anywhere. I'm coming right back with Richard Goldberg, 2:43:18.480 --> 2:43:21.920 Senior director at the Foundation for the Defense of DEMOCRACIESFDD 2:43:22.360 --> 2:43:24.680 dot org, and you can follow him at Richard Goldberg 2:43:24.720 --> 2:43:27.200 on AX. I'll make sure I get the right. Is 2:43:27.240 --> 2:43:28.800 there a middle initial in there, Richard or is it 2:43:28.879 --> 2:43:29.760 just Richard Goldberg? 2:43:30.240 --> 2:43:33.879 Just at rich Underscore Goldberg. The underscore touches people some. 2:43:34.160 --> 2:43:37.600 At rich Underscore Goldberg. It's one of the people I 2:43:37.640 --> 2:43:40.560 tell you you should follow routinely online because there are 2:43:40.560 --> 2:43:42.720 a whole bunch of people with opinions about Iran, but 2:43:42.760 --> 2:43:45.640 there aren't that many with actual firsthand knowledge of having 2:43:45.680 --> 2:43:49.119 worked the portfolio at the NFC. Richard has don't go anywhere. 2:43:49.120 --> 2:43:51.119 I'll be right bats with rich Goldberg from the FDD. 2:43:51.400 --> 2:43:53.640 After these messages, State tuned to the hen Heal It 2:43:53.760 --> 2:43:57.480 Show Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett with Richard Goldberg, 2:43:57.560 --> 2:44:00.320 senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democrat 2:44:00.440 --> 2:44:04.560 for years and Trump won had the portfoliover Iran sanctions, 2:44:04.600 --> 2:44:07.520 trying to rebuild some kind of pressure on Iran after 2:44:07.840 --> 2:44:10.800 Team Obama gave the world away to them, including paliats 2:44:10.840 --> 2:44:14.160 of cash. He came back in term two at the 2:44:14.200 --> 2:44:16.680 beginning of it to stand up the Energy Dominance Council 2:44:16.840 --> 2:44:19.360 and to try and repair the damage done by four 2:44:19.440 --> 2:44:23.480 years of Biden appeasement. Hypothetical entirely, but before we go 2:44:23.520 --> 2:44:27.000 back to the reality of strike list and priorities. Had 2:44:27.240 --> 2:44:32.720 Barack Obama not gone belly up on Iran in his 2:44:32.800 --> 2:44:35.840 first term and then pursued the JCPO in his second term, 2:44:36.160 --> 2:44:39.360 would this regime have already fallen? Did Obama save it? 2:44:41.480 --> 2:44:41.680 Oh? 2:44:41.680 --> 2:44:44.240 He saved it several times. I mean two thousand and nine, 2:44:44.280 --> 2:44:46.920 the last time we remember, well, the first time I 2:44:46.920 --> 2:44:50.880 remember a mass uprising starting in Iran after what people 2:44:51.000 --> 2:44:53.959 understood to be a stolen election. They don't have elections 2:44:53.959 --> 2:44:57.320 in Iran, they have selections in Iran, and you had 2:44:57.360 --> 2:45:00.920 this sort of mass uprising into Ihran suburb taking place 2:45:00.959 --> 2:45:03.760 it was an upper middle class revolt, and they put 2:45:03.800 --> 2:45:06.480 that down with force. And Barack Obama sent the love 2:45:06.560 --> 2:45:09.960 letters behind people's back to the Supreme Leader, saying, I 2:45:10.040 --> 2:45:12.200 want to have a good relationship. By the way, I've 2:45:12.240 --> 2:45:14.360 seen those letters when I was working in the White House. 2:45:15.600 --> 2:45:18.160 This was unimaginable. He abandoned the people in the street 2:45:18.480 --> 2:45:21.160 because he wanted a nuclear deal, because he internalized this 2:45:21.240 --> 2:45:24.959 anti American ideology that we were actually to blame for 2:45:25.000 --> 2:45:27.560 all of our problems with Iran. He believed in the 2:45:27.600 --> 2:45:30.360 false narrative of a coup that the CIA was behind 2:45:30.440 --> 2:45:33.480 that the Iranian regime has put out for years. He 2:45:33.600 --> 2:45:35.879 believed that you need to have a balance of power 2:45:35.920 --> 2:45:38.240 in the region. Let Iran have a little more power 2:45:38.280 --> 2:45:41.640 and that would offset the Saudi power and the Israeli power, 2:45:41.680 --> 2:45:44.640 and then we would have this great equilibrium and Kumba 2:45:44.760 --> 2:45:46.360 Yah would happen, and we just needed to get to 2:45:46.400 --> 2:45:49.480 a nuclear deal because hey, you know, they have grievances 2:45:49.560 --> 2:45:51.600 and we should understand that. 2:45:52.200 --> 2:45:54.600 Yeah, Richard, it's not very irrelevant, but I want you 2:45:54.800 --> 2:45:59.119 follow Has anything been heard from the Metternik of MS now, 2:45:59.280 --> 2:46:02.080 you know Ben Rowe says President Obama said, anything about 2:46:02.080 --> 2:46:04.240 the massacre of tens of thousands of people. Have the 2:46:04.320 --> 2:46:07.360 people who kept the eye tolls in power, have they 2:46:07.400 --> 2:46:10.279 had the decency to come forward and condemn the regime 2:46:10.360 --> 2:46:11.280 that they parlayed with. 2:46:12.440 --> 2:46:14.959 No, because they're out there working to media right now 2:46:15.000 --> 2:46:18.039 to say it's over. Too late, can't do anything, too 2:46:18.120 --> 2:46:21.520 dangerous to act. Don't know what would come next, could 2:46:21.560 --> 2:46:24.600 be worse if the Supreme Leader were to go. That's 2:46:24.640 --> 2:46:27.199 who's behind a lot of those news stories and headlines 2:46:27.240 --> 2:46:28.080 that you see out there. 2:46:28.120 --> 2:46:29.039 It's Team Obama. 2:46:29.480 --> 2:46:32.560 Ben Rhoades out there still trying to hope for a 2:46:32.640 --> 2:46:35.640 day where they get back to appeasement as the policy 2:46:36.120 --> 2:46:39.480 with this regime. However, I will say that for many 2:46:39.520 --> 2:46:45.720 people who are let's call them normal, more mainstream, clearly 2:46:45.840 --> 2:46:48.240 don't agree with them on a lot of policy issues, 2:46:48.480 --> 2:46:51.280 but they went along with that because they're Democrats. They 2:46:51.320 --> 2:46:52.920 believe they this is what we have to do. This 2:46:53.000 --> 2:46:55.960 is Barack Obama's foreign policy. So I'll get on the train. 2:46:56.600 --> 2:46:59.160 They are looking at you, you say forty thousand. They're 2:46:59.160 --> 2:47:01.679 seeing at the numbers right now, they're seeing the pictures. 2:47:01.280 --> 2:47:01.920 The videos. 2:47:02.640 --> 2:47:05.600 Those types of people on the left and in the 2:47:05.640 --> 2:47:10.959 center cannot justify the jcpoaim or cannot justify an appeasement 2:47:10.959 --> 2:47:13.920 policy anymore. Are looking at this idea of having a 2:47:13.959 --> 2:47:17.600 negotiation with this regime with everything going on right now, saying, 2:47:17.640 --> 2:47:20.120 are you kidding me? This regime has to end up 2:47:20.160 --> 2:47:23.640 in the ash heap of history, the sooner the better. So, yes, 2:47:23.680 --> 2:47:26.680 there are idealogues out there, and we remember some of 2:47:26.680 --> 2:47:29.280 them who served in the Biden administration too, like Rob Malley, 2:47:29.360 --> 2:47:31.760 the Special envoy for Iran. It was kicked out for 2:47:32.080 --> 2:47:34.800 being a little too close to the Iranians perhaps, and 2:47:34.879 --> 2:47:38.320 many others. They might be rooting against the Iranian people 2:47:38.400 --> 2:47:41.320 right now. They might be trying to, in sinister ways, 2:47:41.360 --> 2:47:44.160 influence the President not to act. But I think the 2:47:44.240 --> 2:47:47.120 vast majority of Americans see what's happening here, see a 2:47:47.160 --> 2:47:49.680 red line declared, See what this regime is capable of 2:47:49.720 --> 2:47:53.080 against its own people, know that it's capable of building 2:47:53.120 --> 2:47:56.480 more and more missiles to use against us and our allies, 2:47:56.800 --> 2:47:59.119 and knows that this is a historic time to take 2:47:59.160 --> 2:48:01.080 advantage of for our national security. 2:48:01.240 --> 2:48:04.120 So, Richard, there are lots of different definitions of what 2:48:04.160 --> 2:48:08.560 we're aiming for. Some people want regime negotiations and if 2:48:08.560 --> 2:48:11.960 we are to believe one of those includes Special Envoy Witkoff, 2:48:12.000 --> 2:48:15.200 but he's been involved in some headfakes of extraordinary proportions. 2:48:15.520 --> 2:48:19.199 There's regime coercion, which is what's going on in Venezuela. 2:48:19.280 --> 2:48:22.680 There's regime evolution, which is what we hope goes on 2:48:22.920 --> 2:48:25.920 long term in Venezuela, to free and fair elections and 2:48:26.000 --> 2:48:31.240 democracy return. Then there's regime punishment and just simply a 2:48:31.280 --> 2:48:34.800 punitive strike saying what you have done here is beyond 2:48:34.800 --> 2:48:37.280 the bounds of what the West will tolerate. That's what 2:48:37.320 --> 2:48:40.880 President Trump did in term one visa Viasade when he 2:48:40.959 --> 2:48:45.160 used chemical weapons. And then there's regime change, which involves 2:48:45.440 --> 2:48:48.240 Iraq in two thousand and three, Afghanistan in two thousand 2:48:48.280 --> 2:48:52.360 and one. I'm in favor of at least regime punishment, 2:48:52.520 --> 2:48:55.879 in other words, just a simple punitive strike, and we 2:48:55.879 --> 2:48:58.560 can talk about target lists. Where are you in that option, 2:48:58.680 --> 2:49:00.800 Richard Goldberg? What would you like to see happen as 2:49:00.840 --> 2:49:01.959 a strategic goal. 2:49:03.720 --> 2:49:06.920 Yeah, I am at the very least regime punishment, but 2:49:07.000 --> 2:49:10.039 I would like to see the facilitation of regime collapse 2:49:10.080 --> 2:49:13.520 in transition. That does not mean boots on the ground. 2:49:13.520 --> 2:49:16.000 It does not mean an occupation, does not mean the 2:49:16.120 --> 2:49:19.199 United States literally going to Tehran to do things. Though, 2:49:19.680 --> 2:49:23.920 if somehow the President and General Kine and Director Ratcliffe 2:49:23.920 --> 2:49:25.480 can pull a rabbit out of the hat and there's 2:49:25.560 --> 2:49:29.360 some incredible operation like nobody imagined in Caracas that just 2:49:29.360 --> 2:49:32.240 suddenly happens, I would be impressed with that. I would 2:49:32.240 --> 2:49:34.520 not believe. I would not be predicting that. It would 2:49:34.520 --> 2:49:37.560 seem high risk and dangerous. 2:49:37.640 --> 2:49:38.520 But who knows. 2:49:38.520 --> 2:49:42.800 This president and this team around him have proven everybody else. 2:49:44.600 --> 2:49:47.320 We can't really expect the unexpected with their planning at 2:49:47.320 --> 2:49:50.560 the moment. However, given the normal set of facts in 2:49:50.560 --> 2:49:53.960 front of us, the parameters that we would imagine what 2:49:54.000 --> 2:49:56.840 we would be willing to do with this president should 2:49:56.879 --> 2:49:58.720 be willing to do, and what he should not be 2:49:58.800 --> 2:50:02.440 willing to do. Given the risk to US personnel, I 2:50:02.480 --> 2:50:05.120 think it is quite appropriate A to make sure they 2:50:05.120 --> 2:50:07.400 are punished for going across the red line, but B 2:50:08.440 --> 2:50:11.720 take this moment, seize this moment to continue to squeeze, 2:50:12.080 --> 2:50:16.039 to degrade, to dismantle, and the weaker and weaker and 2:50:16.040 --> 2:50:18.879 weaker they get, the stronger and stronger the people get. 2:50:18.920 --> 2:50:21.360 And yes, you will see some sort of transition. At 2:50:21.360 --> 2:50:25.280 some point, this regime cannot continue if banks are collapsing, 2:50:25.760 --> 2:50:29.440 because the present enforces his thread of twenty five percent 2:50:29.520 --> 2:50:34.240 tariffs against all neighboring countries of Iran, and the cash 2:50:34.320 --> 2:50:38.280 flow starts moving, stops moving from daily trade. And you 2:50:38.360 --> 2:50:41.480 actually use either by naval forces like you saw in Venezuela, 2:50:41.879 --> 2:50:46.400 or kinetic action or cyber action, some sort of prevention 2:50:46.560 --> 2:50:49.560 of the oil flowing out of carg Island, you will 2:50:49.800 --> 2:50:52.920 force an immediate liquidity crisis. You will accelerate what is 2:50:52.959 --> 2:50:55.959 already a liquidity crisis. More banks will fail, There will 2:50:56.000 --> 2:51:01.280 be a massive inability to pay the IRGC payroll. That 2:51:01.320 --> 2:51:04.520 would be be very you know, uncertain for what happens 2:51:04.560 --> 2:51:08.280 next to that regime alone, just internally with fracturing, if 2:51:08.280 --> 2:51:11.360 you were to take out kinetically command and control, if 2:51:11.360 --> 2:51:14.680 you were disrupt communications. At the same time that you 2:51:14.760 --> 2:51:15.520 also have. 2:51:15.480 --> 2:51:18.280 To say it, Richard, does the American people and the 2:51:18.280 --> 2:51:20.160 rest of the world have to see what it is 2:51:20.200 --> 2:51:23.160 that the United States does as a reaction to the massacre, 2:51:23.280 --> 2:51:25.000 because if it doesn't, I don't know that the red 2:51:25.040 --> 2:51:27.560 line isn't erat anyway. I think they have to see. 2:51:27.360 --> 2:51:30.280 It well, of course they have to see it. You 2:51:30.280 --> 2:51:33.520 mean you mean, could there just be a cyber event 2:51:33.600 --> 2:51:36.320 and then you say that's the No, there's no way, 2:51:36.360 --> 2:51:38.560 there's no way that that is sufficient at this point, 2:51:38.600 --> 2:51:41.640 based on what the president has has promised, what he 2:51:41.680 --> 2:51:44.360 has suggested, and what you know, if you're shigen Peing, 2:51:44.400 --> 2:51:47.560 if you're Vladimir Putin and you're expecting if you were 2:51:47.640 --> 2:51:51.080 to default now, moving a carrier strike group there, moving 2:51:51.120 --> 2:51:53.400 all these squadrons, building up a forced posture, and then 2:51:53.440 --> 2:51:55.280 just saying, hey, I had a cyber event and we'll 2:51:55.280 --> 2:51:57.480 call it a day. I think that would be laughed 2:51:57.480 --> 2:52:00.480 out of the room. The president certainly knows that, and 2:52:00.520 --> 2:52:02.360 I think, you know, we should have a little bit 2:52:02.400 --> 2:52:06.920 of level setting here. It's not like she and Putin 2:52:07.040 --> 2:52:09.400 don't believe the president is willing to use force. He 2:52:09.440 --> 2:52:12.200 has proven it certainly over the last year, and in 2:52:12.240 --> 2:52:16.240 his first term he has just taken a dictator out 2:52:16.280 --> 2:52:18.520 of Caracas. I need to have to know he's serious. 2:52:19.040 --> 2:52:21.600 But you start stopping forcing your red lines, that can 2:52:21.640 --> 2:52:22.280 change quickly. 2:52:22.840 --> 2:52:25.160 I'll be right back with Richard Goldberg of the Foundation 2:52:25.240 --> 2:52:27.320 for the Defensive Democracy that we're going to tell about 2:52:27.360 --> 2:52:30.040 risk to American personnel in the region, and then we're 2:52:30.080 --> 2:52:31.879 going to talk about target list. In our last two 2:52:31.920 --> 2:52:35.800 segments on Today Iran in Focus Hours, they tuned. I'm 2:52:35.840 --> 2:52:39.520 hughe Hewing. Welcome back America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. The biggest 2:52:39.520 --> 2:52:41.600 story in the world remains Iran and whether or not 2:52:41.680 --> 2:52:44.480 the United States strikes and if Israel joins in with it. 2:52:45.160 --> 2:52:48.040 Richard Goldberg, I want to talk about target sets now. 2:52:48.120 --> 2:52:50.560 I've asked all of the experts, and I'll ask Kareem 2:52:50.560 --> 2:52:53.119 when he comes on to finish my week of experts 2:52:53.160 --> 2:52:56.840 on Iran. Why don't we hit carg Island because it 2:52:56.879 --> 2:52:59.440 and the two other oil terminals are the only hard 2:52:59.480 --> 2:53:03.080 currency generators that this regime has to pay its terrorists with. 2:53:03.600 --> 2:53:04.520 Why don't we do that? 2:53:06.560 --> 2:53:09.359 This is the number one source of revenue for the regime. 2:53:09.400 --> 2:53:12.560 If you stop the flow of oil, then you are 2:53:12.720 --> 2:53:15.520 on an egg timer for how long the regime can survive. 2:53:15.680 --> 2:53:18.039 I will add that I also think we underestimate the 2:53:18.040 --> 2:53:22.280 importance of border trade just in its very near circle 2:53:22.400 --> 2:53:25.840 of influence and neighbors. If you actually stop some of 2:53:25.879 --> 2:53:29.640 that daily trade and the currency transfers and the cash access, 2:53:29.760 --> 2:53:34.039 you will also accelerate liquidity crises inside the banking system. 2:53:34.080 --> 2:53:38.039 But yes, we have long had this option, and obviously 2:53:38.200 --> 2:53:41.680 on sanctions alone, we saw this happen in Venezuela as well. 2:53:42.160 --> 2:53:45.800 You have an immediate impact in the market, normal actors, 2:53:45.840 --> 2:53:48.920 normal corporations, and by the way, even state owned enterprises 2:53:48.959 --> 2:53:52.959 of China shy away from completing a transaction because they 2:53:52.959 --> 2:53:55.680 don't want to suffer the blow of a cutoff from 2:53:55.720 --> 2:53:59.400 the US financial system, which is the punishment under US sanctions. 2:53:59.440 --> 2:54:02.080 And so for the Chinese at least, they resort to 2:54:02.200 --> 2:54:06.240 illicit activity. They set up these so called teapot refineries. 2:54:06.600 --> 2:54:10.800 These are unofficial, sort of supposedly disconnected from state owned enterprises. 2:54:11.200 --> 2:54:13.200 They have a ghost tanker fleet, just like what you 2:54:13.240 --> 2:54:14.959 saw in Venezuela. A lot of those, by the way, 2:54:15.000 --> 2:54:17.560 were the Iranian ghost tanker fleet. When you saw the 2:54:17.640 --> 2:54:20.240 US seizing them, They seize them with US sanctions attached 2:54:20.240 --> 2:54:22.640 from the Revolutionary Guard Corps. So you have all these 2:54:22.640 --> 2:54:26.520 ghost tankers bringing oil out of carg Island, chugging along. 2:54:26.600 --> 2:54:28.720 We let them go all the way through the Strait, 2:54:28.879 --> 2:54:31.200 We let them go all the way to China deliver it. 2:54:31.360 --> 2:54:34.199 We know exactly who they are, where they're coming from, 2:54:34.280 --> 2:54:37.000 what cargo they got, and when they unload. And by 2:54:37.040 --> 2:54:39.520 the way, who has the off take agreements after they 2:54:39.600 --> 2:54:44.120 hit the teapot refineries, the state owned oil companies of China. 2:54:44.560 --> 2:54:47.880 So we have always had the ability to escalate against 2:54:47.879 --> 2:54:50.520 Beijing in its sanctions realm to get them to try 2:54:50.520 --> 2:54:54.600 to cut off the transactions. Obviously, that's complicated in a 2:54:54.760 --> 2:54:57.840 very complicated Bilatter relationship, and maybe there's reasons in a 2:54:57.879 --> 2:55:00.560 trade war and other things. We haven't gone there direction. 2:55:01.000 --> 2:55:04.080 There are other ways to exert that influence. The President 2:55:04.080 --> 2:55:07.000 has tried a tariff threat now that doesn't seem to 2:55:07.040 --> 2:55:09.280 have worked so far. We haven't enforced it yet that 2:55:09.320 --> 2:55:12.840 I've seen in the face of Chinese continuing to ignore 2:55:12.879 --> 2:55:16.000 that he is now moving a carrier strike group that 2:55:16.040 --> 2:55:18.840 comes with three destroyers he already had three destroyers on station. 2:55:19.000 --> 2:55:22.640 Does he envision some sort of naval armada quarantine again 2:55:23.080 --> 2:55:26.039 like what we saw in Venezuela, to start seizing the 2:55:26.160 --> 2:55:29.039 very large tankers coming out of carg Island and not 2:55:29.160 --> 2:55:33.279 let the oil flow, start having contracts canceled and simply 2:55:33.320 --> 2:55:35.439 de facto stop the oil transaction. 2:55:35.480 --> 2:55:38.320 From times Richard you're a student of history. We spent 2:55:38.440 --> 2:55:41.119 a lot of World War Two trying to hit Hitler's 2:55:41.120 --> 2:55:44.520 capacity to produce oil and to deny him the ability 2:55:44.560 --> 2:55:46.760 to get to the oil fields and the Soviet Union. 2:55:46.840 --> 2:55:49.920 Why don't we just blow up the refineries. They can 2:55:49.959 --> 2:55:51.600 be rebuilt under a new regime. 2:55:54.040 --> 2:55:57.039 We have that option set. The truth is is that 2:55:57.080 --> 2:56:00.440 if you go back to the Twelve Day War, like 2:56:00.560 --> 2:56:03.760 this option set wasn't on the table. And by the way, 2:56:04.160 --> 2:56:06.320 that target set was on the table for the Israelis 2:56:06.320 --> 2:56:08.880 as well during twelve days of their own air strikes 2:56:09.200 --> 2:56:12.560 and with the exception of a couple of fuel depots 2:56:13.240 --> 2:56:17.000 in an inner near Tehran, they avoided hitting energy infrastructure. 2:56:17.680 --> 2:56:18.400 Why is that? 2:56:18.920 --> 2:56:21.400 Why is it that we hesitate to do that? Well, 2:56:22.000 --> 2:56:24.880 in the end, if you are a military planner, if 2:56:24.879 --> 2:56:28.280 you're advising the president, you say, well, mister President, if 2:56:28.320 --> 2:56:32.120 we hit their energy, then they will have a proportional response, 2:56:32.160 --> 2:56:35.080 which will be to hit other energy, whether that be 2:56:35.160 --> 2:56:37.920 to mine the strait of horror moves and deny Saudi 2:56:38.000 --> 2:56:41.800 oil for moving out to the market, or hit Saudi 2:56:41.840 --> 2:56:45.680 oil infrastructure itself and try to create a massive catastrophic 2:56:45.720 --> 2:56:48.800 disruption event for the market. A couple of responses to 2:56:48.840 --> 2:56:51.200 that the President should know about. Number one, then give 2:56:51.240 --> 2:56:53.240 me at the top of the target list. We're going 2:56:53.280 --> 2:56:56.720 to hit the missiles, the drones and the IRGC navy 2:56:56.760 --> 2:56:59.320 first and take that threat off the board. Why do 2:56:59.400 --> 2:57:01.760 we keep having to be deterred by that threat? And 2:57:01.879 --> 2:57:04.960 number two, this is a different oil market today because 2:57:04.959 --> 2:57:07.560 of Donald J. Trump, and we should understand that this 2:57:07.680 --> 2:57:11.359 is China's pressure point, not ours. Fifty percent of China's 2:57:11.360 --> 2:57:14.800 oil imports comes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians 2:57:14.840 --> 2:57:17.000 want to mine that straight. They want to attack Saudi 2:57:17.040 --> 2:57:19.520 oil won't be good, not saying we won't have a 2:57:19.560 --> 2:57:21.880 short term price spike because it is a global commodity, 2:57:22.400 --> 2:57:24.240 but we're not going to run out of oil here. 2:57:24.680 --> 2:57:26.840 We're gonna be okay, and we'll get the straight back 2:57:26.879 --> 2:57:29.560 open fast. And I don't think there will be any 2:57:29.560 --> 2:57:33.199 government facilities left in Tehran afterwards from what the President 2:57:33.200 --> 2:57:34.119 would do in response. 2:57:35.160 --> 2:57:39.080 Yeah, Richard, thank you. I've been through a lot of 2:57:39.640 --> 2:57:41.920 experts and they all say we got to worry about 2:57:41.920 --> 2:57:46.279 our Golf Cooperation Council allies, and we do. And msz 2:57:47.200 --> 2:57:49.800 NBC is our best ally and NBS is a rising 2:57:49.840 --> 2:57:52.480 ally and we got to worry about world roil markets. 2:57:52.800 --> 2:57:55.520 But Canada's coming online with a lot of heavy crude, 2:57:55.520 --> 2:57:57.720 and we got a lot of heavy crude, and Venezuela 2:57:57.760 --> 2:57:59.560 has got a lot of everything that Iran's got. I 2:57:59.800 --> 2:58:01.680 just don't understand why it's not at the top of 2:58:01.720 --> 2:58:04.600 the target list. But my last segment with Richard's coming up, 2:58:04.640 --> 2:58:08.400 because we do have to discuss risk to Americans. Stay 2:58:08.400 --> 2:58:12.720 tuned on, Hugh Hewett, Welcome back America. On CUE Herett. 2:58:12.800 --> 2:58:15.240 Richard Goldberg is they senior Fellow at the Foundation for 2:58:15.280 --> 2:58:17.920 the Defensive Democracies. He's been in Trump one and Trump two. 2:58:17.920 --> 2:58:20.440 He's an Iran expert. We have a lot of assets 2:58:20.480 --> 2:58:25.520 in the region. Rich I know that families that people 2:58:25.600 --> 2:58:27.680 are on the Lincoln, and I've had family on the Lincoln, 2:58:27.720 --> 2:58:30.440 though not right now, are wondering, Hey, can they hit 2:58:30.480 --> 2:58:33.400 the Lincoln? Can they hit the destroyers? Can they hit 2:58:33.080 --> 2:58:37.480 our base? And cutter? We saw a demonstration attack after 2:58:37.800 --> 2:58:41.520 midnight hammer. We saw Israel hammered a lot I think 2:58:41.560 --> 2:58:45.680 thirty dead. We've seen them hit Ali Sad with ballistic missiles, 2:58:45.720 --> 2:58:49.440 precision strikes on Alisad and whatever year that was that 2:58:49.520 --> 2:58:51.640 they blew up alisade I had friends and family on 2:58:51.680 --> 2:58:54.760 Alisada at that might that got off. How much can 2:58:54.760 --> 2:58:57.560 they hurt us with their ballistic missile capacity? 2:58:59.480 --> 2:59:02.240 They can deaf not only target US bases in the 2:59:02.280 --> 2:59:05.720 region through their ballistic missiles, they also have a cruise 2:59:05.720 --> 2:59:09.400 missile capacity as well. We saw that utilized against the 2:59:09.440 --> 2:59:12.520 Saudi oil infrastructure back in twenty nineteen, along with drones. 2:59:13.400 --> 2:59:16.640 So long as we keep our naval forces far away 2:59:17.120 --> 2:59:21.480 with our standoff capabilities, whether that be Tomahawk strikes or 2:59:21.680 --> 2:59:25.959 fighter jets off the boat, we should be outside of 2:59:25.959 --> 2:59:29.560 their striking distance to our naval forces. They do not 2:59:29.720 --> 2:59:32.680 have much of an air defense left, if any any 2:59:32.760 --> 2:59:35.720 that would be still there will be accounted for both 2:59:35.760 --> 2:59:39.480 by the growlers on the aircraft carrier. Those are the 2:59:39.480 --> 2:59:45.560 electronic warfare fighter squadrons that we have eighteen g's and 2:59:45.600 --> 2:59:47.480 also the fact that the Israelis sort of took out 2:59:47.520 --> 2:59:50.160 all of the Russian air defense already, the Iranian knockoff 2:59:50.160 --> 2:59:52.160 of the Russian air defense. It's not to say you 2:59:52.200 --> 2:59:55.440 couldn't have an oopsie, but the threat is much lower 2:59:55.520 --> 2:59:56.680 from an air perspective. 2:59:56.720 --> 3:00:00.680 If remember the Argentinian has hit that British I can't 3:00:00.680 --> 3:00:02.400 remember the name of the ship that they that they 3:00:02.440 --> 3:00:03.280 sunk in the fall. 3:00:03.440 --> 3:00:05.240 You can't have a total prediction here. You have to 3:00:05.240 --> 3:00:07.360 there there. There can always be something that goes wrong. 3:00:07.400 --> 3:00:09.720 There can always be something like you can't believe that happened. 3:00:10.360 --> 3:00:12.720 But by and large, you do have to be prepared 3:00:12.760 --> 3:00:15.400 for their missile threat. We have missile defenses available, We 3:00:15.480 --> 3:00:18.120 have the s M three's on the destroyers, we have 3:00:18.200 --> 3:00:21.840 some land based patriots and other at our bases in 3:00:21.879 --> 3:00:25.840 the region. So yes, we would be on force protection 3:00:26.120 --> 3:00:31.080 condition highest possible level. People in barracks underground, prepared for 3:00:31.120 --> 3:00:35.920 any sort of retaliation, already moving out most essential critical 3:00:37.000 --> 3:00:41.440 personnel and platforms to prepare for such a contingency. But 3:00:41.680 --> 3:00:43.440 that goes back to the fact that if you have 3:00:43.480 --> 3:00:46.440 a target list and you are most afraid of that 3:00:46.520 --> 3:00:50.440 retaliatory capability, then you want to mitigate that from the start. 3:00:50.560 --> 3:00:52.680 You want to go after all the underground facilities where 3:00:52.680 --> 3:00:55.440 they store their missiles. If there is a launch, we 3:00:55.480 --> 3:00:58.000 will detect the launch immediately and take out the launchers. 3:00:58.000 --> 3:01:00.920 That's what the Israelis did very effectively during the Twelve 3:01:00.959 --> 3:01:03.760 Day War. If you see fast boats going around in 3:01:03.840 --> 3:01:05.800 the gulf, there should be a shoot on site or 3:01:05.959 --> 3:01:08.920 get rid of the boats. Don't hesitate if you see 3:01:08.920 --> 3:01:12.720 anything that looks like mining. Shoot the boats, you know, 3:01:12.800 --> 3:01:15.960 take out the poor, take out the IRGC, Navy headquarters 3:01:15.959 --> 3:01:18.720 and command and control. All of those should be on 3:01:18.760 --> 3:01:20.960 the top of a target. Okay, Richard, you are looking 3:01:21.000 --> 3:01:23.920 to do something real. We got four minutes left, so 3:01:23.920 --> 3:01:26.520 I want to ask you the toughest question. Your phone rang, 3:01:27.160 --> 3:01:30.440 it's the president. Hey Goldberg. I heard you talking to 3:01:30.480 --> 3:01:32.400 Hewett and he was quoting me from two weeks ago. 3:01:32.560 --> 3:01:33.199 Things have changed. 3:01:33.240 --> 3:01:34.520 What do you want me to do? And do you 3:01:34.520 --> 3:01:36.320 really think my red line would be a race if 3:01:36.360 --> 3:01:38.680 I don't do anything? What do you want me to do? 3:01:38.720 --> 3:01:40.560 And would it really be a red line erased? What 3:01:40.640 --> 3:01:41.240 do you say to one? 3:01:41.560 --> 3:01:46.400 Mister president? Everyone's watching. You gave your word, you decided 3:01:46.440 --> 3:01:48.320 that you were going to set a red line, which 3:01:48.360 --> 3:01:51.960 was totally appropriate, and that lead line has been obliterated 3:01:52.080 --> 3:01:55.440 because in the end, these are crazy, maniacal radicals who 3:01:55.440 --> 3:01:57.280 have tried to kill you, and we'll try to kill 3:01:57.320 --> 3:01:59.280 you again when you leave office. But you already know 3:01:59.360 --> 3:02:01.640 that killed a lot of Americans, and they will keep 3:02:01.760 --> 3:02:05.560 killing Americans. This is your moment in history. Strike them 3:02:05.600 --> 3:02:08.880 at their most lethal strategic threat to US long term, 3:02:09.240 --> 3:02:11.400 and then hit them in command and control and senior 3:02:11.480 --> 3:02:14.280 leadership to try to blind them, disorient them, and give 3:02:14.280 --> 3:02:16.520 the people a chance. I'm not saying that's going to 3:02:16.560 --> 3:02:18.600 guarantee it's going to be, you know, the collapse of 3:02:18.600 --> 3:02:21.040 the regime overnight. I don't know what's going to come next. 3:02:21.080 --> 3:02:23.000 I can't guarantee you that, but I do know that 3:02:23.040 --> 3:02:25.760 this regime staying in power, with the ability to lash 3:02:25.760 --> 3:02:28.440 out and reach the United States or our allies, is 3:02:28.560 --> 3:02:31.000 very dangerous and very good for China and Russia. And 3:02:31.040 --> 3:02:33.120 you will do the world and the United States a 3:02:33.160 --> 3:02:34.760 great favor by taking action now. 3:02:35.160 --> 3:02:37.959 So Baby says the same thing. Do you want that? 3:02:38.080 --> 3:02:40.000 Do you want me to have Israel come along or 3:02:40.080 --> 3:02:41.280 you want them to stay home? 3:02:43.959 --> 3:02:44.119 Oh? 3:02:44.400 --> 3:02:46.879 I think that if you have the aircraft carrier of 3:02:46.879 --> 3:02:48.879 the State of Israel at our disposal, that means we 3:02:48.920 --> 3:02:52.000 have two carrier strike groups at our disposal. Actually, the 3:02:52.160 --> 3:02:55.880 entire Israeli Air Force and their clandestine and cyber capabilities 3:02:55.920 --> 3:02:58.480 inside of Iran. We don't know what they're what they 3:02:58.480 --> 3:03:01.520 could be capable of doing. If I was the President 3:03:01.600 --> 3:03:04.920 United States, I would say, what are our unique capabilities 3:03:05.240 --> 3:03:09.080 against specific targets that these Raelis can't touch, that they 3:03:09.080 --> 3:03:12.320 can't have impact on? Versus what are the Israelis able 3:03:12.360 --> 3:03:14.720 to do on their own and continue to contribute. I 3:03:14.720 --> 3:03:16.560 think it would be crazy not to coordinate this with 3:03:16.600 --> 3:03:17.400 the Israelis. 3:03:17.760 --> 3:03:20.280 And then he finishes Richard this way, you know, I 3:03:20.360 --> 3:03:21.840 like air to one air. No one called me. He 3:03:21.840 --> 3:03:23.560 doesn't want me to do this. They just put in 3:03:23.600 --> 3:03:26.120 a strike, he put in radar in Damascus. What do 3:03:26.160 --> 3:03:27.039 we do about Turkey? 3:03:29.440 --> 3:03:32.200 Tell him that I hope he really loves what we've 3:03:32.240 --> 3:03:35.480 done to bring the Iraq Turkey pipeline back online and 3:03:35.520 --> 3:03:39.960 the revenue that's creating for his regime and for his country, 3:03:40.400 --> 3:03:43.039 that there's a lot more business to be done, and 3:03:43.280 --> 3:03:46.720 hopefully he understands that the Islamic Republic of Iran at 3:03:46.720 --> 3:03:49.160 war with the United States all these decades. People who 3:03:49.200 --> 3:03:51.720 have tried to kill me personally meet the President United 3:03:51.720 --> 3:03:56.280 States and have killed many, many, many Americans really shouldn't 3:03:56.280 --> 3:03:58.720 be around much longer. After what they've done here in 3:03:58.720 --> 3:04:00.200 the streets and what they continue to do to the 3:04:00.320 --> 3:04:02.920 United States and our allies. And I hope you understand 3:04:02.920 --> 3:04:05.200 that as a NATO ally because we could have a 3:04:05.200 --> 3:04:07.680 great relationship. But I don't think you want to be 3:04:07.760 --> 3:04:09.240 with those guys, right, all. 3:04:09.240 --> 3:04:12.240 Right, very last question. I don't think the red lines 3:04:12.280 --> 3:04:15.200 obliterated yet, because there's a rationale for what he did 3:04:15.200 --> 3:04:16.760 when he did and what he said when he said, 3:04:16.800 --> 3:04:18.720 and I think it was very strategic. But it will 3:04:18.760 --> 3:04:21.840 go away by a date certain. I'm saying Saint Patrick's day. 3:04:22.080 --> 3:04:24.280 How long does he have to act, Richard before the 3:04:24.360 --> 3:04:27.520 damage Obama like damage to his credibility is done. 3:04:29.520 --> 3:04:31.800 I don't like setting a timetable on that. If he 3:04:31.959 --> 3:04:34.800 is intending to act, and he is continuing to move 3:04:35.160 --> 3:04:37.840 forces into position to be able to fulfill his objectives, 3:04:38.240 --> 3:04:42.160 he should use this time to squeeze, destabilize, and disorient 3:04:42.240 --> 3:04:44.040 that can be done in the economic realm, that can 3:04:44.080 --> 3:04:46.400 be done in the cyber realm, and then follow on 3:04:46.480 --> 3:04:49.400 with the kinetic action. So long as that's all sequenced, 3:04:49.720 --> 3:04:51.720 it's all coming together, it's all part of a strategy. 3:04:52.680 --> 3:04:55.520 You know, the time is on his side. He should 3:04:55.520 --> 3:04:58.680 not rush something like this. It should be done correctly. 3:05:00.080 --> 3:05:03.320 Goldberg from the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. Thank you. 3:05:03.400 --> 3:05:07.680 Follow rich on X at Rich Underscore Goldberg at Rich 3:05:07.800 --> 3:05:12.240 Underscore Goldberg, and visit Foundation for Defensive Democracy that's at 3:05:12.440 --> 3:05:15.480 fdd on X as well all of their They've got 3:05:15.520 --> 3:05:18.720 the strongest Iran department inside the Beltway because they've got 3:05:18.760 --> 3:05:21.360 people who have actually done it, including Rich Goldberg, who's 3:05:21.360 --> 3:05:24.280 been mister sanctions for a long long time. Thank you, Rich. 3:05:25.400 --> 3:05:28.840 Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewittt on the Weekend broadcast. 3:05:28.959 --> 3:05:31.640 Eli Lake joins us. He is, of course the host 3:05:31.680 --> 3:05:35.400 of the Breaking History podcast, a contributor to the Free Press, 3:05:35.600 --> 3:05:40.720 an expert on Iran. Eli in the Davos love in 3:05:40.800 --> 3:05:43.920 among bankers, did anyone have the guts to stand up 3:05:43.959 --> 3:05:47.200 and say Iran just mowed down fifteen thousand of their 3:05:47.240 --> 3:05:49.720 people and imprison the same number and is the evilest 3:05:49.760 --> 3:05:50.720 regime on the planet. 3:05:52.080 --> 3:05:54.280 It's a really good question. I don't think anybody kind 3:05:54.280 --> 3:05:56.040 of put it like that, and I think that's exactly 3:05:56.040 --> 3:05:57.360 how we should think about it. 3:05:58.120 --> 3:05:59.640 But that. 3:06:02.240 --> 3:06:05.920 This is the end of the Obama delusion. I have 3:06:06.040 --> 3:06:11.520 not heard from European capitals that there is a sense 3:06:11.600 --> 3:06:15.560 or an expectation that there will be new negotiations with 3:06:15.640 --> 3:06:18.840 Iran over you know, whatever remains of its nuclear program, 3:06:19.440 --> 3:06:24.360 and eventually we will knit Iran into the global order 3:06:24.800 --> 3:06:28.119 by investing in that country as long as that regime 3:06:28.160 --> 3:06:31.680 stays in power. I think at this point, I hope 3:06:31.720 --> 3:06:36.360 it the regime collapses tomorrow, but even if it doesn't, 3:06:36.400 --> 3:06:38.440 I just don't think that we're going to get back 3:06:38.520 --> 3:06:43.039 to what we lived through ten years ago, which was 3:06:43.080 --> 3:06:46.960 the idea that there would be major corporations investing in Iran. 3:06:47.560 --> 3:06:51.920 The sanctions were lifted as Iran built up this proxy 3:06:51.959 --> 3:06:55.480 network throughout the region and continued to have the nuclear option. 3:06:56.360 --> 3:06:59.800 They did not invite. They ended up disinviting the Foreign Ministry, 3:07:00.200 --> 3:07:03.120 which was a good move, but they have not designated 3:07:03.120 --> 3:07:05.880 the IRGC as a terrorist organization at the EU, which 3:07:05.920 --> 3:07:08.640 is a bad move. The most important question in the 3:07:08.680 --> 3:07:10.879 world right now, and I think by a lot, I've 3:07:10.920 --> 3:07:13.320 been on a Canada rant already today because the Mark 3:07:13.360 --> 3:07:17.520 Carney disgusting address or so cowardly in two faced, But 3:07:18.280 --> 3:07:23.320 the most important question remains, should Donald Trump hit Iran hard? 3:07:23.440 --> 3:07:25.599 And Willie? What do you think, Elila? 3:07:27.680 --> 3:07:30.880 I think he absolutely should. I don't see how I 3:07:31.400 --> 3:07:33.360 mean listen, nobody can bring to what's going on with 3:07:33.400 --> 3:07:39.120 Donald Trump. His messaging has been pretty consistent, and I 3:07:39.160 --> 3:07:41.640 think he tried to kind of create his own way 3:07:41.680 --> 3:07:47.480 out by saying that they had they had canceled the 3:07:47.560 --> 3:07:49.760 execution of I think he has a very specific number 3:07:49.760 --> 3:07:52.680 eight hundred and thirty seven people in the hangings which 3:07:52.680 --> 3:07:56.840 he's talked about. We saw today that one of the 3:07:56.879 --> 3:08:02.200 senior kind of judges in Iran said that is not 3:08:02.280 --> 3:08:04.720 true and that they would be going forward with the executions. 3:08:04.760 --> 3:08:10.600 Of course, the death toll is horrific. I think at 3:08:10.640 --> 3:08:12.440 the very least it's four or five thousand, and it 3:08:12.480 --> 3:08:16.959 could be upwards of twenty five thousand or more. They've 3:08:16.959 --> 3:08:21.200 turned off the Internet precisely for this reason, so you know, 3:08:22.000 --> 3:08:24.160 I hope that this is the kind of final straw. 3:08:24.240 --> 3:08:27.600 And then more importantly, the response from Iran's leaders up 3:08:27.600 --> 3:08:32.280 into and including Ayatol Ali Khamene has been effectively to 3:08:32.440 --> 3:08:38.120 taunt Trump, to question his resolve. That that didn't go 3:08:38.240 --> 3:08:40.640 very well for Nicholas Madoro, it didn't go very well 3:08:40.680 --> 3:08:44.280 for costum Ulimani, and I think that they in some 3:08:44.320 --> 3:08:46.080 ways in that respect, they are sealing their fate. 3:08:46.959 --> 3:08:51.840 My worry is though, that I would have liked to. 3:08:51.800 --> 3:08:55.480 Have seen something, and I understand military assets have to 3:08:55.480 --> 3:08:59.360 be in place. I also understand that, according to a 3:08:59.400 --> 3:09:01.760 lot of reports, and I've heard this too in my reporting, 3:09:02.080 --> 3:09:05.560 that Trump really does want a comprehensive military option and 3:09:05.600 --> 3:09:11.400 to go big. So that maybe takes time, but it 3:09:11.440 --> 3:09:15.520 would have been good to have something two weeks ago, 3:09:15.720 --> 3:09:17.360 a week and a half ago, when he said help 3:09:17.400 --> 3:09:19.920 was on the way, because I think the perception is 3:09:19.920 --> 3:09:23.840 is that there was at least a chance that Trump 3:09:23.879 --> 3:09:26.439 would back off and would seek. 3:09:26.160 --> 3:09:28.880 Some kind of deal. I don't think that's going to happen, 3:09:28.920 --> 3:09:31.200 but that's my Let me go all Sophocles on you. 3:09:31.200 --> 3:09:33.840 You cannot know how good the day has been until 3:09:33.879 --> 3:09:36.840 the night has come. And with Donald Trump, the whole 3:09:36.840 --> 3:09:39.360 Greenland thing, he's an actor. The whole Greenland thing might 3:09:39.400 --> 3:09:41.760 have been a way to divert attention away from this. 3:09:42.200 --> 3:09:45.040 But I did have a very smart national security fellow 3:09:45.480 --> 3:09:50.080 of impeccable credential say we can't hit carg Island and 3:09:50.120 --> 3:09:52.480 the oil terminals, which is what seems obvious to me, 3:09:52.720 --> 3:09:55.480 to to keep in the regime alive, because that would 3:09:55.640 --> 3:09:59.600 possibly bring China in to rebuild it and to embed 3:09:59.680 --> 3:10:01.320 within Iran. What do you think of that. 3:10:02.520 --> 3:10:04.160 There's a lot of reasons maybe why you don't hit 3:10:04.160 --> 3:10:06.280 carg Island. You could also cause an oil shock that 3:10:06.320 --> 3:10:08.720 would do terrible things to the price of energy, which 3:10:08.760 --> 3:10:12.120 has been relatively stable and low, and that would have 3:10:12.160 --> 3:10:14.800 an effect in terms of inflation. So Trump's got to 3:10:14.800 --> 3:10:18.520 consider that. I think he would have an enormous effect 3:10:18.520 --> 3:10:21.879 if he just decided to hit the headquarters in regional 3:10:21.959 --> 3:10:24.720 headquarters for the IRGC, that's the Revolutionary Guard core and 3:10:24.720 --> 3:10:28.920 the besieging militia and then target started similar to what 3:10:29.800 --> 3:10:33.480 Israel did, start targeting senior regime officials up to it, 3:10:33.520 --> 3:10:37.720 including Io Lakamine. You have a number of voices from 3:10:38.080 --> 3:10:41.720 Iran's opposition, not just on the outside, that are begging 3:10:42.320 --> 3:10:47.600 the America to hit this supreme leader. What else is 3:10:47.640 --> 3:10:51.720 there left to talk about at this point? So there 3:10:51.760 --> 3:10:54.760 are a lot of targets in Iran short of carg Island. 3:10:55.160 --> 3:10:57.680 The reason I like carg Island is all that money 3:10:57.760 --> 3:11:01.039 goes to the IERGC. Yeah, Canada is ramping up its 3:11:01.080 --> 3:11:04.680 export of oil. It's at sixty dollars a barrel, seventy 3:11:04.720 --> 3:11:07.039 dollars a barrel is not that big of a deal, 3:11:07.080 --> 3:11:09.240 and it can be we can overproduce. We are just 3:11:09.320 --> 3:11:14.000 about to hit full American production. But Eli, before I go, 3:11:14.080 --> 3:11:17.840 I got to ask you the Carnie speech and many 3:11:17.840 --> 3:11:21.840 of the other Europeans seem to take for granted that 3:11:21.879 --> 3:11:25.240 the United States will always protect them no matter what 3:11:25.280 --> 3:11:28.280 they say about us. It's a little bit of what 3:11:28.440 --> 3:11:31.080 Israel must have to deal with on a daily basis, 3:11:31.200 --> 3:11:33.480 that they are really the lynchpin to security in the 3:11:33.520 --> 3:11:36.240 Middle East, but they get dumped on by everyone and 3:11:36.280 --> 3:11:37.279 it's not pleasant. 3:11:38.560 --> 3:11:43.360 I would say this, it's empty rhetoric. Canada and Europe 3:11:43.440 --> 3:11:46.960 do not have the military, do not have the means 3:11:47.440 --> 3:11:51.039 to protect themselves. That is by our design, and there 3:11:51.080 --> 3:11:53.279 are good reasons for that. So I wanted to say, 3:11:53.560 --> 3:11:55.560 I don't want to give Trump a total path. I 3:11:55.560 --> 3:11:57.519 think that some of the things that he said were outrageous, 3:11:57.840 --> 3:11:59.640 and the way that he went about the Greenland thing. 3:11:59.720 --> 3:12:01.680 I think can have but it's not the end of 3:12:01.720 --> 3:12:04.600 the world, because there is no alternative right now to 3:12:04.840 --> 3:12:09.000 the alliance with America. I mean the meeting with g 3:12:10.120 --> 3:12:12.560 and the I'm sorry not even G like the senior 3:12:12.720 --> 3:12:15.119 Chinese official and the statement that you know things are 3:12:15.120 --> 3:12:18.400 going in a different direction is absurd and Carney ought 3:12:18.400 --> 3:12:22.040 to know better. The idea that Canada is going to 3:12:22.120 --> 3:12:25.320 pursue the kind of relationship it has with China over 3:12:25.360 --> 3:12:27.720 the United States even under Trump, and I get you 3:12:27.760 --> 3:12:31.640 know why he's nervous about things, but don't make threats. 3:12:31.680 --> 3:12:34.000 Don't use that rhetoric because it's just not realistic. It's 3:12:34.000 --> 3:12:34.840 not in the cards. 3:12:35.320 --> 3:12:37.880 But they're going to sell a lot of oil to China, 3:12:37.959 --> 3:12:40.120 which is fine because we have freedom of the sea's 3:12:40.200 --> 3:12:43.720 guaranteed by the United States Navy, and if that ends, 3:12:44.120 --> 3:12:46.400 they can only sell it to us, and they only. 3:12:46.440 --> 3:12:48.879 They don't even spend two percent of their GDP on defense. 3:12:49.000 --> 3:12:51.960 Eli he talked about his submarines. They got four submarines, 3:12:52.200 --> 3:12:54.560 the most recent one which was built in twenty fifteen. 3:12:56.560 --> 3:12:59.880 Listen, I agree, and that some of this is a 3:13:00.040 --> 3:13:02.480 exposing things. I mean, listen, some of what Trump is 3:13:02.520 --> 3:13:05.520 saying is I disagree with a lot of it is true. 3:13:06.040 --> 3:13:09.320 When we were fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yes, it's 3:13:09.320 --> 3:13:11.360 true when they say the British did fight, especially on 3:13:11.360 --> 3:13:13.800 the Special operation side, absolutely valiantly. 3:13:13.840 --> 3:13:16.160 That's and the Canadians lost one hundred and fifty eight people. 3:13:16.520 --> 3:13:18.600 And also true, but I'm just saying the Italians and 3:13:18.640 --> 3:13:22.160 the Germans, we couldn't trust them to secure areas they 3:13:22.400 --> 3:13:25.800 they were they they didn't they There are cultural issues 3:13:25.840 --> 3:13:28.640 there that are really deep. It's not just about spending 3:13:28.640 --> 3:13:31.800 more of your GDP. There's it's that there. There's not 3:13:31.879 --> 3:13:34.600 the kind of military culture that we have in America 3:13:34.720 --> 3:13:39.160 right now. So those are deep things that our generations 3:13:39.320 --> 3:13:42.120 are going to be playing out over a generation. But like, 3:13:42.240 --> 3:13:45.240 let's let's let's be realistic. There is no alternative to 3:13:45.280 --> 3:13:47.879 American power. Europeans, Canada, they know. 3:13:47.879 --> 3:13:50.480 That, no matter how many times ago to Davos, I'm 3:13:50.480 --> 3:13:53.480 in the killed Davos Forever club. What do you think? Eli? 3:13:53.560 --> 3:13:55.280 Thirty seconds? I agree with Davos. 3:13:55.320 --> 3:13:59.400 Is is a is a debating society of the plutocratic class. 3:13:59.480 --> 3:14:02.680 It's a pleasuring of the banking class. And I'm sick 3:14:02.720 --> 3:14:05.560 of it. Thank you, Eli Lake. Follow him on X 3:14:05.640 --> 3:14:08.760 at Eli Lake. I'll be right back in America. Stay tuned, Hi, 3:14:08.760 --> 3:14:10.720 it's you, Hewett. You've heard me talk a lot about 3:14:10.720 --> 3:14:13.480 consumer cellular how you can switch your carrier and save 3:14:13.560 --> 3:14:18.080 money without sacrifice. That's because Consumer Cellular uses the same 3:14:18.240 --> 3:14:21.320 towers as the major carrier. You'll save money every month 3:14:21.360 --> 3:14:24.880 on your bill without having to sacrifice the quality of coverage. 3:14:25.120 --> 3:14:28.040 Right now, you get your second month free plus. Folks 3:14:28.040 --> 3:14:29.880 over are fit to get two lines of unlimited talk, 3:14:29.959 --> 3:14:32.560 text and data for sixty dollars a month. 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If you're over fifty, 3:15:06.240 --> 3:15:09.720 go to Consumer Saler dot com, slash hu promo Hugh 3:15:10.320 --> 3:15:13.560 or call one hundred eight or call one eight hundred 3:15:13.600 --> 3:15:16.800 four one one forty four fifty four one eight hundred 3:15:16.920 --> 3:15:19.800 four to one one forty four fifty four. That's one 3:15:19.840 --> 3:15:21.920 eight hundred four one one forty four to fifty four. 3:15:22.040 --> 3:15:26.240 Don't forget My code is Hugh. Welcome back in America. 3:15:26.280 --> 3:15:30.040 I'm Hugh Hewett. A. Greenwald is the executive editor of Commentary, 3:15:30.160 --> 3:15:33.480 a participant almost every day that he's not on jury 3:15:33.560 --> 3:15:36.480 duty on the Commentary podcast. I listened today, Eli. You 3:15:36.520 --> 3:15:39.679 were talking about Iran today as you talk about Minnesota. 3:15:39.800 --> 3:15:42.360 I've been fixed on Iran because I think it could 3:15:42.440 --> 3:15:47.280 be a history changing fortnite ahead. Do you think the 3:15:47.320 --> 3:15:48.920 president is going to order a strike? 3:15:49.879 --> 3:15:53.680 Well, this is very I'm very glad you've asked me 3:15:53.720 --> 3:15:56.160 this because I often, Actually, Hugh, I think of you 3:15:57.120 --> 3:16:03.720 because in the run up to Operation Midnight Hammer, to 3:16:03.840 --> 3:16:08.520 that strike that Trump ordered, I was on your show 3:16:08.560 --> 3:16:11.200 and you asked me then if I thought it was 3:16:11.240 --> 3:16:12.400 going to happen, and. 3:16:12.440 --> 3:16:13.560 I was quite skeptical. 3:16:13.600 --> 3:16:15.600 I didn't think it was going to happen, and you 3:16:16.120 --> 3:16:19.560 were much more certain than I was, and you were correct. 3:16:19.760 --> 3:16:23.600 And I have now kept your voice in my head 3:16:24.240 --> 3:16:24.959 in thinking. 3:16:24.760 --> 3:16:25.600 About these things. 3:16:25.720 --> 3:16:29.440 And you also have to remember that during Trump's first term, 3:16:30.680 --> 3:16:32.680 he called up a strike at the last second as 3:16:32.720 --> 3:16:40.040 well a strike, a strike on Iran because he calculated 3:16:40.080 --> 3:16:43.960 that the death toll would be too great in response 3:16:44.040 --> 3:16:49.879 to the Iranians having knocked down unmanned us drowne but 3:16:49.959 --> 3:16:53.520 that did not stop him from six months later taking 3:16:53.560 --> 3:16:54.760 out costum soul of money. 3:16:56.160 --> 3:17:00.560 So I'm I think it's more like leave him not. 3:17:00.680 --> 3:17:01.280 How about that? 3:17:01.920 --> 3:17:05.200 Okay? I agree with you, And my reasoning is this. 3:17:05.360 --> 3:17:08.960 He's a very visual person. He learns by seeing. And 3:17:09.120 --> 3:17:11.400 John Ratcliffe, who doesn't make any news at all, we 3:17:11.480 --> 3:17:13.760 never see him every day. I think he's bringing in 3:17:13.800 --> 3:17:16.120 new pictures of what they did, and I don't think 3:17:16.160 --> 3:17:19.680 we have quite mentally got our arms around. Channel twenty 3:17:19.680 --> 3:17:23.840 four in Israel is now reporting upwards of eighty thousand 3:17:23.879 --> 3:17:27.840 people murdered by the regime. That if John Ratcliffe and 3:17:27.920 --> 3:17:30.879 our intelligence community gives him pictures of even a tenth 3:17:30.959 --> 3:17:33.440 of that, remember how we reacted to Syria and the 3:17:33.480 --> 3:17:37.520 poison gas, he's going to want to punish people. Oh. 3:17:37.600 --> 3:17:40.720 You know Eleana Johnson, who is the editor of the 3:17:40.800 --> 3:17:43.600 Washington Free Beacon and who was on the commentary podcast Daily, 3:17:44.080 --> 3:17:45.080 She made a good point. 3:17:45.120 --> 3:17:46.800 I think it was today, might have been yesterday. 3:17:48.280 --> 3:17:53.280 Trump has I mean, it's very natural, good aversion, but 3:17:53.400 --> 3:18:01.720 has a profound aversion to dead bodies and unnecessary, and 3:18:02.240 --> 3:18:05.880 I think that he is. And I've also heard that 3:18:05.920 --> 3:18:09.800 in other contexts from in having to do with with 3:18:09.800 --> 3:18:14.000 with other international situations, so I think you're onto something. 3:18:14.000 --> 3:18:18.720 I would also add that if the eighty thousand number 3:18:18.840 --> 3:18:25.240 is anywhere near accurate, think of that. I just have 3:18:25.360 --> 3:18:32.840 to say this as compared to the not accurate Hamas 3:18:33.640 --> 3:18:37.320 Goza Ministry of Health numbers that claim, you know that 3:18:37.480 --> 3:18:43.039 Israel has killed some I don't know, sixty seventy thousand 3:18:43.120 --> 3:18:48.199 over the course of two plus years, and we're talking 3:18:48.240 --> 3:18:54.280 about uh Iran killing nothing but civilians over the over 3:18:54.320 --> 3:18:57.640 a tiny period of time something around eighty thousand. 3:18:59.200 --> 3:19:03.320 Needlessness, simplicity of the media in this double standard. They 3:19:03.320 --> 3:19:06.360 have also made zero complaints that I have seen that 3:19:06.400 --> 3:19:08.959 the regime won't let them in. That was like a 3:19:09.080 --> 3:19:12.000 daily refrain about the net and Yahoo government was, Oh, 3:19:12.040 --> 3:19:13.800 they won't let us into Gaza. What are they hiding? 3:19:13.800 --> 3:19:16.080 What are they hiding? They won't let us into Iran? 3:19:16.200 --> 3:19:19.280 And I mean anybody, zero, nobody, And there isn't a 3:19:19.280 --> 3:19:22.280 Gaza news service. There isn't an Iranian news service because 3:19:22.280 --> 3:19:26.040 they haven't got an internet. Can you imagine even a 3:19:26.080 --> 3:19:30.000 semi modern economy without the Internet. Now everybody's going out 3:19:30.040 --> 3:19:31.080 of business. 3:19:31.600 --> 3:19:34.959 Yeah, well they look in the internet is death to that, 3:19:35.040 --> 3:19:36.039 you know, to the regime. 3:19:36.080 --> 3:19:38.720 They they've got to they've got to go dark to 3:19:39.160 --> 3:19:41.400 do what to take out their people. 3:19:42.080 --> 3:19:46.680 And in some sense it worked because it put a 3:19:46.720 --> 3:19:51.840 temporary cloak over what the regime was up to. Only 3:19:51.959 --> 3:19:56.680 now we're getting some sense of the full extent of 3:19:56.760 --> 3:19:57.480 the brutality. 3:19:58.160 --> 3:20:00.800 Now I got one one big question, I asked Ben 3:20:00.840 --> 3:20:03.680 Dominis this. I just want to say, the only one 3:20:03.720 --> 3:20:06.680 of the Obama era people who I've seen say anything 3:20:06.760 --> 3:20:09.640 with Tommy Veeder was chirping at me that Taco Trump 3:20:10.200 --> 3:20:12.680 and I can't that the lack of self awareness. They 3:20:12.720 --> 3:20:16.360 misjudged this regime so badly. If the regime was willing 3:20:16.400 --> 3:20:19.320 to do this to our own people, imagine what they 3:20:19.360 --> 3:20:22.640 would have done with nukes to Israel. No one seems 3:20:22.640 --> 3:20:25.560 to have made that connection that Tim Obama and Tim 3:20:25.640 --> 3:20:28.879 Biden were wholly wrong about the nature of this regime. 3:20:30.160 --> 3:20:33.240 Obama is I mean, this all sort of comes from Obama. 3:20:33.240 --> 3:20:34.920 I mean, I I don't know the Biden ever would 3:20:34.920 --> 3:20:35.840 have gotten this idea. 3:20:37.120 --> 3:20:40.480 Had Barack Obama not first been president and Biden up 3:20:40.480 --> 3:20:44.840 been his vice president. Obama's whole approach to Iran was 3:20:44.920 --> 3:20:49.480 that the US was somehow talking down to it unwarrantedly, 3:20:50.360 --> 3:20:52.280 and that what we needed to do was offer the 3:20:52.400 --> 3:20:56.520 open hand, if you recall, and sort of welcome it 3:20:56.680 --> 3:21:02.600 back into the community of responsible nations and understand its 3:21:02.640 --> 3:21:08.760 point of view. This was complete, toxic. 3:21:08.440 --> 3:21:10.240 Malign garbage, I mean. 3:21:10.480 --> 3:21:14.440 And when Obama didn't act in two thousand and nine 3:21:15.360 --> 3:21:21.480 after the regime took violent action against those the Iranians 3:21:21.480 --> 3:21:28.080 who protested that rigged election, the excuse was, well, the 3:21:28.160 --> 3:21:31.120 protesters don't want the Americans on their side, it will 3:21:31.160 --> 3:21:32.119 make them look bad. 3:21:32.680 --> 3:21:33.200 Nonsense. 3:21:33.240 --> 3:21:37.080 As we see now, the Iranians are, to the extent 3:21:37.120 --> 3:21:42.560 that they can reach out, are asking for American help here. 3:21:43.320 --> 3:21:47.680 So does the left in America not know and doesn't 3:21:47.760 --> 3:21:50.640 want to learn, or do they know and don't care 3:21:50.720 --> 3:21:53.760 about the nature of this regime China? They kind of 3:21:53.800 --> 3:21:56.640 care about Russia for reasons I'm not quite sure, but 3:21:56.680 --> 3:21:58.920 they don't care about China and the leagers in Hong 3:21:59.000 --> 3:22:01.440 Kong and Jimmy Lai. They don't care about this regime. 3:22:01.920 --> 3:22:03.439 They care about themselves. 3:22:05.080 --> 3:22:09.400 I think liberals generally don't particularly know. 3:22:11.200 --> 3:22:13.680 Or don't care that much. It's not it's not big 3:22:13.720 --> 3:22:14.280 on their radar. 3:22:14.760 --> 3:22:18.400 I think if you're on the left, the honest to 3:22:18.440 --> 3:22:22.400 goodness left in this country, you don't want to say 3:22:22.440 --> 3:22:25.720 word against Iron. You've been You've been protesting on their 3:22:25.879 --> 3:22:31.400 side for two plus years. You've been supporting their terrorist proxies, 3:22:31.760 --> 3:22:39.039 chanting their terrorist proxies, slogans of extermination. You you believe 3:22:39.920 --> 3:22:41.440 essentially in their cause. 3:22:43.520 --> 3:22:46.760 And now you are embarrassed because they are revealed in 3:22:46.800 --> 3:22:49.199 the full light of day, even though it's a completely 3:22:49.320 --> 3:22:52.960 dark society. When those lights turn on, a whole lot 3:22:53.000 --> 3:22:55.120 of video are going to come our way. Y'allsh allend 3:22:55.200 --> 3:22:57.400 that on that comment online and it's been taunting me 3:22:57.440 --> 3:22:59.720 ever since. We're going to be up to our next 3:23:00.800 --> 3:23:05.560 awful video, Hey Greenwald. Follow on at Abe Greenwald. Listen 3:23:05.640 --> 3:23:10.000 to the commentary podcast every day morning Glaury and even 3:23:10.080 --> 3:23:13.720 Grace America. I asked promised. I'm joined by Kareem Sajafor 3:23:13.920 --> 3:23:16.920 of the Carnegie Endowment. Kareem is one of the belt 3:23:16.920 --> 3:23:20.320 Ways genuine experts on the Islamic Republic of Iran, and 3:23:20.360 --> 3:23:22.640 he has been tutoring me for at least a decade. 3:23:23.080 --> 3:23:25.760 A mutual friend introduced us over dinner when I moved 3:23:25.800 --> 3:23:29.199 back to Washington in twenty sixteen. Had the occasion since 3:23:29.240 --> 3:23:31.200 then to get up meet with him a couple of 3:23:31.240 --> 3:23:34.640 times and dig deep into the Islamic Republic. And boy, 3:23:34.680 --> 3:23:36.879 you're in demand right now, Kareem. First of all, it's 3:23:36.879 --> 3:23:38.640 good to see you. Thank you for doing this. I 3:23:38.680 --> 3:23:40.680 know how busy you must be right now. Is the 3:23:40.720 --> 3:23:42.720 phone just ringing constantly off the hook? 3:23:44.040 --> 3:23:46.760 It is indeed a very busy time, and I appreciate 3:23:47.320 --> 3:23:48.600 you inviting me back. 3:23:48.520 --> 3:23:52.280 To well, welcome back. Can we start by alerting the 3:23:52.320 --> 3:23:55.600 audience telling me your background. You went to the University 3:23:55.600 --> 3:23:58.840 of Michigan. We're going to overlook that here at Ohioseate headquarters. 3:23:59.040 --> 3:24:02.360 But tell your background and how you came to specialize 3:24:02.360 --> 3:24:03.240 in all things Heran. 3:24:04.879 --> 3:24:07.360 Sure, so, I was born in the United States, but 3:24:07.440 --> 3:24:10.440 my parents were originally from Iran. 3:24:10.480 --> 3:24:12.120 They immigrated to the United States. 3:24:12.120 --> 3:24:16.879 Most Iranian families in the United States came here nineteen 3:24:16.920 --> 3:24:19.520 seventy nine or shortly thereafter when they were nineteen seventy 3:24:19.600 --> 3:24:23.120 nine revolution happened, But my parents had immigrated to the 3:24:23.200 --> 3:24:25.920 United States a decade prior to that, and so my 3:24:26.560 --> 3:24:30.720 father was a neurologist. We grew up mostly in Michigan. 3:24:31.160 --> 3:24:34.279 I went to University of Michigan and Arbor. I played soccer. 3:24:34.400 --> 3:24:38.000 The first person I met in freshman orientation was Tom Brady, 3:24:38.400 --> 3:24:42.400 a friendship kich. In hindsight, I should have cultivated and 3:24:43.160 --> 3:24:44.000 you know, I lived. 3:24:44.120 --> 3:24:44.800 I grew up. 3:24:44.720 --> 3:24:48.880 Speaking Persian in our kitchen, I call it kitchen Persian. 3:24:48.920 --> 3:24:50.920 I wasn't formally schooled in it, but I grew up 3:24:51.360 --> 3:24:55.400 with English in Persian. And then I spent several years 3:24:55.440 --> 3:24:59.440 living abroad in college and even in high school. I 3:24:59.480 --> 3:25:02.080 spent a year living in Mexico. I lived in college 3:25:02.080 --> 3:25:05.360 in Italy. I wasn't really interested in the Middle East 3:25:05.440 --> 3:25:09.400 until I felt that things started to change in Iran politically. 3:25:09.480 --> 3:25:12.280 It looked like there was a political opening in the 3:25:12.360 --> 3:25:17.200 late nineteen nineties, and so I started to I went 3:25:17.240 --> 3:25:20.280 to After undergrad, I went to graduate school at the 3:25:20.400 --> 3:25:24.480 Johns Hopkins School of Advance International Studies. I focused on 3:25:24.520 --> 3:25:27.760 the Middle East, and the first week of my grad school, 3:25:27.840 --> 3:25:30.000 nine to eleven happened, and so that was when it 3:25:30.080 --> 3:25:33.160 was obviously very clear to me that I wanted to 3:25:34.120 --> 3:25:37.600 dedicate my career to this topic. And Hewett, had you 3:25:37.680 --> 3:25:44.680 asked me in two thousand and one whether the running 3:25:45.200 --> 3:25:47.959 regime would look the way it does today, I would 3:25:47.959 --> 3:25:49.960 have said no, it looked like your own. Even back 3:25:50.000 --> 3:25:52.600 then was a country which was on the custop change. 3:25:53.160 --> 3:25:56.520 And so I was based in Tehran with an organization 3:25:56.640 --> 3:25:59.320 called the International Crisis Group. I was based there for 3:25:59.560 --> 3:26:04.080 several until I was nearly imprisoned. I was one of 3:26:04.120 --> 3:26:09.240 the first of the dual nationals that they warned, you know, 3:26:09.440 --> 3:26:12.320 I came back to the United States, and I hated 3:26:12.360 --> 3:26:14.120 that warning. I didn't go back to your own, but 3:26:14.200 --> 3:26:17.640 many of my friends, perhaps more than a dozen, tried 3:26:17.680 --> 3:26:20.240 to go back to your own, and they spent time 3:26:20.280 --> 3:26:23.119 in prison. And so for the last two decades now, 3:26:23.240 --> 3:26:27.160 i've I've been focused on Iran at the Carnegie Down 3:26:27.200 --> 3:26:30.720 for International Peace. I'm a contributing writer at The Atlantic, 3:26:30.760 --> 3:26:32.519 and I teach at Georgetown University. 3:26:33.320 --> 3:26:36.120 So a Gareham, I've told my audience many times I 3:26:36.240 --> 3:26:40.000 watched the Iranian revolution unfold on a couch in the 3:26:40.000 --> 3:26:43.320 Western White House with exiled Richard Nixon and Ray Price. 3:26:43.520 --> 3:26:45.760 We were the writers the former president was doing the 3:26:45.760 --> 3:26:49.160 book The Real War, and we'd watch every afternoon because 3:26:49.160 --> 3:26:51.320 the news would come on three hours earlier, and we 3:26:51.360 --> 3:26:54.440 saw the revolution unfold in real time. Where were you 3:26:54.600 --> 3:26:56.000 when the revolution unfolded? 3:26:57.160 --> 3:26:58.240 So I was a young boy. 3:26:58.280 --> 3:27:01.039 I was born late nineteen seventy, so I was just 3:27:01.080 --> 3:27:03.360 about two years old when the revolution was happening in 3:27:03.640 --> 3:27:08.920 the state of Michigan. And you know, it obviously impacted 3:27:09.240 --> 3:27:12.720 our lives in different ways. So much of our extended 3:27:12.760 --> 3:27:16.080 family had to flee Iran, all of them at ben 3:27:16.959 --> 3:27:20.240 and Iran, and our home in Michigan was kind of 3:27:20.560 --> 3:27:21.160 the safe. 3:27:21.000 --> 3:27:22.000 Harbor for many of them. 3:27:22.120 --> 3:27:25.800 So they fled Iran and they would come to stay 3:27:25.840 --> 3:27:28.560 with us and Michigan prepared until they were able to 3:27:28.800 --> 3:27:33.400 kind of resettle elsewhere. And I think in my parents 3:27:33.480 --> 3:27:35.959 said they probably thought maybe the one day they would 3:27:35.959 --> 3:27:38.840 go back to Iran. But then when the revolution happened, 3:27:39.200 --> 3:27:42.400 you know, we stayed in the United States. And my 3:27:42.520 --> 3:27:45.760 father was someone who he was a neurologist, but he 3:27:45.920 --> 3:27:49.640 was someone who he loved the United States, deeply patriotic American, 3:27:49.720 --> 3:27:53.800 but he also loved his heritage and his culture, and 3:27:53.879 --> 3:27:56.800 that duality was very much part of our childhood that 3:27:56.879 --> 3:27:59.000 we used to always tell us, you know, you guys 3:27:59.040 --> 3:28:01.240 live in the best country the world, in the United States. 3:28:01.640 --> 3:28:06.400 But he was so proud of his heritage and Persian 3:28:06.520 --> 3:28:10.160 poetry and culture, which is so rich because it's you know, 3:28:10.160 --> 3:28:12.800 it's got twenty five hundred plus years of history. 3:28:13.560 --> 3:28:16.440 I've only had one other diaspora member on that hadn't 3:28:16.480 --> 3:28:21.400 been Talablue from FDD. I neglected to ask him. How 3:28:22.240 --> 3:28:26.000 varied is the Iranian diaspora. Does the regime have any 3:28:26.080 --> 3:28:31.000 supporters within it, and has it become increasingly militant about 3:28:31.080 --> 3:28:32.280 making a change in Iran? 3:28:33.680 --> 3:28:37.800 The regime has virtually no support among the certainly the 3:28:38.000 --> 3:28:41.640 diaspora in the United States. When polling is done, I 3:28:41.640 --> 3:28:44.760 think you probably see less than one percent support because 3:28:45.280 --> 3:28:47.600 if you're a supporter of the regime, you know you 3:28:47.640 --> 3:28:49.480 want you live in Iran, you don't want to be 3:28:49.520 --> 3:28:50.680 in the United States. 3:28:51.640 --> 3:28:55.920 And I think for many years there's been not really 3:28:55.920 --> 3:28:57.040 a diversity. 3:28:56.520 --> 3:28:59.680 Of opinion when it comes to people's desired endgame in 3:28:59.680 --> 3:29:04.160 your among the dads for Ionians, even outside the United States, 3:29:04.200 --> 3:29:07.320 I would say vast, vast majority of your Oroonians want 3:29:07.360 --> 3:29:10.400 to see some form of secular democracy. 3:29:11.480 --> 3:29:14.119 I think the debates have been about. 3:29:13.840 --> 3:29:17.840 The means to get there, and whether, for example, economic 3:29:17.959 --> 3:29:22.880 sanctions is a viable or useful tool to try to 3:29:23.160 --> 3:29:27.240 reach that end of secular democracy, whether military action is 3:29:28.080 --> 3:29:31.240 a means that people would accept to get to that endgame. 3:29:31.640 --> 3:29:36.200 And obviously the last month the events in Iran, I 3:29:36.280 --> 3:29:39.680 think have really altered that debate. Whereas one month ago, 3:29:39.879 --> 3:29:44.039 two months ago, probably those who supported some type of 3:29:44.120 --> 3:29:47.920 US military action inside Iran were in the minority, I 3:29:47.920 --> 3:29:50.720 would argue now, and I haven't seen polling, so I'm 3:29:50.720 --> 3:29:55.160 not This isn't scientific, but just anecdotal. My guess is 3:29:55.200 --> 3:29:57.840 that the majority of those who are in the diaspora 3:29:58.760 --> 3:30:01.280 would like to see President Trump made good on his work. 3:30:02.000 --> 3:30:06.000 President Trump threatened on eight occasions that if Uron killed protesters, 3:30:06.640 --> 3:30:10.360 the United States was ready to protect them and take action. 3:30:11.000 --> 3:30:14.680 And obviously the running regime drove a giant truck through 3:30:14.680 --> 3:30:20.200 President Trump's redline, they killed as many as thirty thousand protesters. 3:30:20.600 --> 3:30:22.920 And so I think both within Iran, among. 3:30:22.720 --> 3:30:26.560 The protesters, and in the diaspora, I would say there's 3:30:26.680 --> 3:30:30.199 probably a majority consensus, a majority support for some type 3:30:30.200 --> 3:30:31.240 of US action. 3:30:32.560 --> 3:30:36.040 Kareem were you shocked by the level of barbarity that 3:30:36.120 --> 3:30:38.560 the regime employed in the last three weeks. I was 3:30:38.600 --> 3:30:41.000 one of the eight occasions where the president said help 3:30:41.080 --> 3:30:43.920 is on the way, keep marching, take over. He was 3:30:44.080 --> 3:30:45.680 very adamant that we were going to help. So I 3:30:45.720 --> 3:30:47.920 think we are going to help. But were you shocked 3:30:47.959 --> 3:30:51.680 by the level to which violence they descended. It's just 3:30:52.360 --> 3:30:56.440 Bobby are nineteen forty one Masaco of thirty three thousand 3:30:56.520 --> 3:31:00.680 Jews in Ukraine by the advancing Nazis been anything like 3:31:00.840 --> 3:31:03.720 this since that, you know. 3:31:03.800 --> 3:31:08.320 Unfortunately here, I wasn't terribly shocked by the brutality of 3:31:08.360 --> 3:31:11.199 the regime because at the end of the day, this 3:31:11.600 --> 3:31:14.200 is a regime which has no friends in the world. 3:31:14.240 --> 3:31:18.360 They have no great plan b So, in contrast to 3:31:18.840 --> 3:31:22.000 the Shaw, who didn't want to use a lot of 3:31:22.080 --> 3:31:25.920 violence against people to stay in power, and both the 3:31:25.959 --> 3:31:29.240 SHAW and all of its political and military elites, many 3:31:29.280 --> 3:31:31.959 of them were educated in the United States and Europe. 3:31:32.000 --> 3:31:35.000 They spoke foreign languages and so they could remake their 3:31:35.040 --> 3:31:38.959 lives and Los Angeles or London. But the elites of 3:31:39.000 --> 3:31:42.680 the Islamic Republic, and I told a Harmony himself, have 3:31:43.240 --> 3:31:47.160 provincial backgrounds. They are not people who are are worldly. 3:31:48.160 --> 3:31:51.520 This is a regime which is virtually friendless. You know, 3:31:51.560 --> 3:31:55.400 it's long time allies like the I said regime in Syria, 3:31:55.560 --> 3:31:59.960 Maduro government in Venezuela. Those guys have been deposed. 3:31:59.480 --> 3:31:59.879 Or they're out. 3:32:01.200 --> 3:32:05.600 They have partnerships with countries like China and Russia, but 3:32:05.680 --> 3:32:08.520 those are not secure partnerships, and so for that reason, 3:32:08.600 --> 3:32:12.959 they have a killer be killed mentality. And unfortunately, I 3:32:13.080 --> 3:32:16.640 wasn't terribly surprised that they were willing to employ that 3:32:16.760 --> 3:32:19.760 kind of brutality to stay in power because you know, 3:32:19.840 --> 3:32:22.200 what I say about this regime, and I tol a 3:32:22.240 --> 3:32:26.600 harmony in particular, is that they're homicidal, but they're not suicidal. 3:32:26.640 --> 3:32:30.200 What's paramount for them is to stay in power, and 3:32:30.240 --> 3:32:33.680 so that applies here when and I don't want to 3:32:33.680 --> 3:32:37.400 preempt your questions, but you know, as they're facing a 3:32:37.480 --> 3:32:39.959 potentially existential threat from the United States right. 3:32:39.879 --> 3:32:43.800 Now a minute and a half to break correct, what 3:32:43.879 --> 3:32:47.320 are the spectrum of collapses underway for the people who 3:32:47.320 --> 3:32:49.480 are actually just living there. They're not part of the regime, 3:32:49.680 --> 3:32:52.480 they're Persian, they're Runnia, just trying to get along. What 3:32:52.560 --> 3:32:55.440 are they confronted with right now one minute. 3:32:56.320 --> 3:33:01.200 So this is a regime which is politically, economically, and 3:33:01.280 --> 3:33:06.199 socially authoritarian. Every aspects of people's lives are disrupted because 3:33:06.240 --> 3:33:11.440 they're living under a totalitarian dictatorship that polices their personal lives. 3:33:11.840 --> 3:33:16.199 There's routine power outages, water shortages, and I think people 3:33:16.240 --> 3:33:20.000 are just so exhausted from this reality. Is the most 3:33:20.000 --> 3:33:23.240 sanctioned country in the world, and I think that people 3:33:23.280 --> 3:33:28.560 are desperate for a transition from an ideological regime to 3:33:29.040 --> 3:33:32.240 a nation state, the government that prioritizes economic and national 3:33:32.240 --> 3:33:34.160 interests before revolutionary ideology. 3:33:35.120 --> 3:33:37.760 I will be right back with Karim sad Japur of 3:33:37.840 --> 3:33:43.240 the Carnegie Endowment right after these messages, Police State, welcome 3:33:43.240 --> 3:33:46.080 back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett. Kareem zad Japur is 3:33:46.080 --> 3:33:48.880 the equal of any Iranian analyst in the United States. 3:33:48.879 --> 3:33:51.840 He is, of course, very very much in demand right now, 3:33:51.840 --> 3:33:53.760 and I thank him for making time for the program 3:33:53.800 --> 3:33:56.200 today on the Sale News Channel and the Salem Radio Network. 3:33:56.800 --> 3:34:01.400 Kareem can the regime? Is it possible it would just 3:34:01.520 --> 3:34:05.040 collapse without outside pressure in the form of military force. 3:34:05.400 --> 3:34:09.080 Given the spectrum of failure, as we talked about, you. 3:34:09.080 --> 3:34:12.360 Know, anything is possible with these dictatorships. Here, there's an 3:34:12.400 --> 3:34:15.080 old line that all dictatorships look good until the last 3:34:15.120 --> 3:34:19.279 five minutes, and many of these authoritarian regimes that looked 3:34:19.280 --> 3:34:23.880 so strong before, you know, collapse fairly abruptly. So it's 3:34:24.000 --> 3:34:27.880 my view that even if the United States doesn't take 3:34:27.920 --> 3:34:33.000 military action, this is a regime which is this current 3:34:33.040 --> 3:34:34.920 status quo in Iran is not tenable. 3:34:35.959 --> 3:34:38.120 So there's one hundred and fifty thousand members of the 3:34:38.160 --> 3:34:42.680 Iranian Revolutionary Guard cores tens of thousands more in the besiege. 3:34:42.680 --> 3:34:49.240 They're paramilitary, para police thugs. What about the Iranian military, 3:34:49.440 --> 3:34:52.480 it's ordinary military. Is it radicalized as well? Or is 3:34:52.520 --> 3:34:55.320 it a military military like the American military? 3:34:56.640 --> 3:34:59.960 So the military is a conscript military, so it reflec 3:35:00.080 --> 3:35:03.000 ex Iranian society. I have one one kind of personal 3:35:03.080 --> 3:35:05.720 anecdote about that. Years ago, when I was living in Tehran, 3:35:06.680 --> 3:35:08.920 I went with a group of friends to the Caspian 3:35:09.000 --> 3:35:14.080 Sea and I saw there was some military folks from 3:35:14.120 --> 3:35:18.160 the regular army, conscript army who were just kind of 3:35:18.160 --> 3:35:23.520 walking down walking along the shore of the Caspian Sea. 3:35:23.560 --> 3:35:27.800 And I initially kind of you know, when you see 3:35:28.040 --> 3:35:31.440 military folks, especially revolutionary guards, and passiege and you're on 3:35:31.600 --> 3:35:35.280 especially back then, you would freeze and hesitate a little bit. 3:35:35.800 --> 3:35:38.880 And my my friends kind of continued as they were, 3:35:39.040 --> 3:35:42.560 including a young woman who wasn't properly covering her hair, 3:35:43.440 --> 3:35:44.959 and I looked at them and they said, no, don't 3:35:45.000 --> 3:35:47.560 worry about it. These guys are These guys are for 3:35:47.680 --> 3:35:49.960 the mooney. They're one of us, you know, from the army. 3:35:50.000 --> 3:35:53.160 So what the way there is Lono Republic has managed 3:35:53.800 --> 3:35:58.040 the regular army is that obviously the top commanders have 3:35:58.120 --> 3:36:01.199 been hand picked by the regimes, so up until. 3:36:00.959 --> 3:36:04.520 Now they've always been loyal. But the body of that. 3:36:04.440 --> 3:36:08.160 Military are reflective of Iranian society at large, and I 3:36:08.160 --> 3:36:12.080 would suspect for the most part, deeply unsatisfied with the 3:36:12.440 --> 3:36:15.000 status quo, deeply unsatisfied with their lives. 3:36:15.440 --> 3:36:18.040 So that takes me to my question about if there 3:36:18.080 --> 3:36:21.480 is military action, what should the United States target and 3:36:21.480 --> 3:36:24.360 what shouldn't they target? And I'll follow naturally, should they 3:36:24.480 --> 3:36:27.119 leave the regular Iranian military alone? 3:36:29.000 --> 3:36:31.920 Listen, I don't want to pretend to like I'm a 3:36:31.959 --> 3:36:35.480 military expert, and I obviously haven't. What we've learned from 3:36:35.600 --> 3:36:38.920 so many of US military action over the last two 3:36:38.959 --> 3:36:42.240 decades in the Middle East, including the Iraq and Afghanistan. 3:36:42.280 --> 3:36:45.080 So much of it is the execution, and to our credit, 3:36:45.120 --> 3:36:48.160 to our military's credit, they've done an exceptionally good job, 3:36:48.240 --> 3:36:52.480 oftentimes with execution. But on first the question of whether 3:36:52.560 --> 3:36:55.200 to target the regular army, it would seem to me 3:36:55.240 --> 3:36:57.320 that would be a bad idea because, as I mentioned, 3:36:58.240 --> 3:37:00.480 this is a conscript army for the more part in 3:37:00.560 --> 3:37:04.480 reflective of Iranian society, and you don't want anarchy, you 3:37:04.520 --> 3:37:07.959 don't want total disorder. We saw what happened in Iraq 3:37:08.040 --> 3:37:11.080 when the Bathist army was disbanded, and I think everyone 3:37:11.120 --> 3:37:14.520 fears that possibility of anarchy. So I think you would 3:37:14.560 --> 3:37:17.000 want the regular army to remain intact. 3:37:18.480 --> 3:37:21.920 Would you want if the United States strikes, what would 3:37:21.959 --> 3:37:24.840 you like them to strike in what order? I know 3:37:24.920 --> 3:37:28.000 you're not a military expert, but everybody is talking about this. 3:37:28.160 --> 3:37:31.439 Adaal Montgomery gave me a very long target list yesterday. 3:37:31.720 --> 3:37:34.039 But you're the fellow who studies the country. What do 3:37:34.080 --> 3:37:36.520 you think might bring regime collapse closer? 3:37:38.240 --> 3:37:39.640 So let me say a couple of things to you. 3:37:39.760 --> 3:37:42.320 One is that one of the things I would have 3:37:42.440 --> 3:37:46.000 liked to have seen happened already in fact early days, 3:37:46.000 --> 3:37:49.800 and the protests would have been to lift this iron 3:37:49.920 --> 3:37:52.959 digital iron curtain that the regime has subjected people to. 3:37:53.120 --> 3:37:58.439 They've cut off intnet, satellite connections, they've cut out cellular connections, 3:37:58.480 --> 3:38:02.200 and activity of the country has been about one percent, 3:38:02.360 --> 3:38:05.240 So they've slaughtered people in the dark. So to the 3:38:05.320 --> 3:38:11.199 extent we have capabilities, whether it's kinetic or cyber capabilities, 3:38:11.320 --> 3:38:14.120 to to tear down that digital iron wall, that might be, 3:38:14.240 --> 3:38:17.040 that's very, very important, even if that means, for example, 3:38:17.240 --> 3:38:21.439 because the regime has their own intranet, their state television 3:38:21.520 --> 3:38:26.520 is functioning okay, their officials are doing TV interviews broadcast 3:38:26.560 --> 3:38:30.240 to the United States, and so in some ways, you know, 3:38:30.280 --> 3:38:33.560 one one option is to take out their internet systems, 3:38:33.560 --> 3:38:38.320 so then they have to plug into to to the 3:38:38.360 --> 3:38:41.080 system that everyone else uses. So that that's one thing 3:38:41.120 --> 3:38:42.840 that I would have liked to have seen happen already. 3:38:43.959 --> 3:38:48.279 Second is, uh, you know, the organs of repression in Iran, 3:38:48.400 --> 3:38:52.360 whether that's a command and control outposts of the Revolutionary Guards. 3:38:52.400 --> 3:38:55.920 I think that there's Raelis will certainly want to target 3:38:56.000 --> 3:38:59.720 their their their missile stock pile because Iran is a 3:38:59.720 --> 3:39:02.840 country here which really can't control its own skies right now, 3:39:03.160 --> 3:39:06.480 and you would want to prevent them from from replenishing 3:39:06.520 --> 3:39:07.600 their missile capacity. 3:39:08.600 --> 3:39:11.680 Then we start to get into much. 3:39:11.440 --> 3:39:15.080 More sensitive questions, and obviously the most sensitive one, arguably, 3:39:15.160 --> 3:39:17.879 I think that the current the Trump administration is probably 3:39:19.160 --> 3:39:22.440 debating as we speak, is whether to target the Supreme Leader. 3:39:22.640 --> 3:39:26.520 And you know, I've spoken to folks who served and 3:39:26.640 --> 3:39:29.240 the first Trump administration who are still close to this one, 3:39:29.240 --> 3:39:32.480 who believed that if military action is sick and they 3:39:32.520 --> 3:39:35.800 are likely to target the Supreme Leader eighty six year 3:39:35.840 --> 3:39:40.320 old tel Ali comedy. The only note of caution, and 3:39:40.400 --> 3:39:43.080 here I think that, you know, I don't want to 3:39:43.080 --> 3:39:46.560 claim to speak for people inside Iran, but I think 3:39:47.000 --> 3:39:50.720 most protesters, those who took to the streets against the regime, 3:39:51.480 --> 3:39:55.200 welcome some kind of military action. The only note of 3:39:55.240 --> 3:39:58.680 caution I'd make cure is that we know historically that 3:39:59.600 --> 3:40:03.879 when if oritarian regimes collapse or when they transition, about 3:40:03.920 --> 3:40:07.640 four out of five times they unfortunately don't transition to democracy. 3:40:08.400 --> 3:40:11.080 About four out of five times they transfer, they transition 3:40:11.200 --> 3:40:14.440 to another form of authoritarian regime. Soviet Union is a 3:40:14.440 --> 3:40:16.600 good example of that, we went from Soviet Union to 3:40:16.959 --> 3:40:19.480 Putin's Russia. The Iran of nineteen seventy nine is a 3:40:19.480 --> 3:40:22.200 good example of that. We went from the shaw to 3:40:22.280 --> 3:40:27.119 the Islamic Republic. But so I'm not making the argument 3:40:27.200 --> 3:40:31.440 that military action can transition Iran to Denmark. But I 3:40:31.440 --> 3:40:34.080 think what people want to see, as I suggested from 3:40:34.080 --> 3:40:36.560 the asset, they want to see a government that is 3:40:36.600 --> 3:40:40.400 a national government that puts the economic and national interests 3:40:40.400 --> 3:40:43.600 of the nation first, not death to America and death 3:40:43.640 --> 3:40:47.040 to Israel. They want to an a government whose ethos 3:40:47.120 --> 3:40:48.040 is long live you wrong. 3:40:49.160 --> 3:40:54.119 So Kareem sajafor do you where do you place their 3:40:54.160 --> 3:40:57.959 probability now of a military strike by the United States 3:40:58.000 --> 3:41:00.800 on Iran? And do you have any year that Iran 3:41:00.879 --> 3:41:04.279 will take a first preemptive strike on, for example, Israel 3:41:04.320 --> 3:41:07.520 and the Gulf oil fields in the GCC countries. 3:41:09.280 --> 3:41:12.199 No, I'm skeptical that they will try to take preemptive 3:41:12.200 --> 3:41:15.280 action because, as I said, this is a regime which 3:41:15.320 --> 3:41:16.920 is homicidal, not suicidal. 3:41:17.360 --> 3:41:18.080 And right now, the. 3:41:18.200 --> 3:41:24.680 United States has convened some of the most elite facets 3:41:24.720 --> 3:41:28.480 of the American military, whether that's warships or fighter jets, 3:41:29.120 --> 3:41:34.959 and I'm skeptical that they will want to test President Trump. 3:41:35.040 --> 3:41:38.080 Given President Trump's history with Iran. You have to remember, Hugh, 3:41:38.160 --> 3:41:42.360 and you remember it better than anyone. Twenty eighteen, Trump 3:41:42.360 --> 3:41:47.160 pulled out of the nuclear deal. Twenty twenty assassinated Blossom Sulimani, Iran, 3:41:47.240 --> 3:41:50.959 some military commander. Last summer, he dropped bunker busters on 3:41:51.040 --> 3:41:55.880 Iran's nuclear program. And each of these cases people feared 3:41:55.879 --> 3:41:58.040 that it could be World War three. And in each 3:41:58.080 --> 3:42:01.320 of these cases, I think President Trump feels his decisions 3:42:01.360 --> 3:42:05.480 were vindicated. So I don't think he fears Eron, especially 3:42:05.520 --> 3:42:08.199 now that they don't control their own skies. He thinks 3:42:08.240 --> 3:42:12.240 they're a paper tiger. So I would argue that the 3:42:12.360 --> 3:42:15.680 likelihood of him acting again, I would say is perhaps 3:42:15.680 --> 3:42:16.640 six seven out of ten. 3:42:17.680 --> 3:42:20.080 I'll be right back with Kareem Sajupor don't go anywhere. 3:42:20.120 --> 3:42:22.960 America very rare you get an expert like this, so 3:42:23.120 --> 3:42:25.000 listen very closely to what he has to say. Stay 3:42:25.000 --> 3:42:28.440 tuned to The Hugh Hewitt Show. Welcome back to America. 3:42:28.520 --> 3:42:32.080 I'm Hugh Hewitt spending this hour with Kareem Masajapour. He's 3:42:32.080 --> 3:42:34.760 the first generation of America and his parents emigrated from 3:42:34.800 --> 3:42:38.160 Iran ten years before the revolution, and he knows the diaspora, 3:42:38.240 --> 3:42:40.959 and he studies this at the Carnegie Endowment. He's much 3:42:41.000 --> 3:42:44.440 in demand right now, and I appreciate the time kareem. 3:42:44.959 --> 3:42:48.760 Iran only hard currency comes from oil. It is exported 3:42:48.800 --> 3:42:51.960 from cars Island and from two other oil terminals. There's 3:42:51.959 --> 3:42:54.120 a debate among people that I read and listen to 3:42:54.160 --> 3:42:55.920 as to whether or not the United States and its 3:42:55.959 --> 3:43:00.560 allies ought to target those facilities in order to fash 3:43:00.760 --> 3:43:04.120 the IRGC and the Ayatola and his crony. What do 3:43:04.200 --> 3:43:05.000 you think. 3:43:06.480 --> 3:43:09.240 My sense here is, and the President has alluded to 3:43:09.280 --> 3:43:12.360 this that the kind of template or strategy they have 3:43:12.440 --> 3:43:15.959 in mind is similar to the Venezuela playbook, which was 3:43:16.080 --> 3:43:21.800 essentially economic stranglehold, and you know, going after oil exports, 3:43:22.160 --> 3:43:28.080 going after these ghost fleets of oil ships. And my 3:43:28.320 --> 3:43:31.320 sense is that that is a more likely outcome than 3:43:32.200 --> 3:43:39.280 going after bombing Iranian oil installations or refiners, which you know, 3:43:39.360 --> 3:43:45.120 could could cause real economic devastation to the population. But 3:43:45.160 --> 3:43:49.200 obviously in the Venezuela strategy that that strategy of you know, 3:43:49.280 --> 3:43:53.360 economic stranglehold was was a prelude to what became a 3:43:53.360 --> 3:43:57.480 political decapitation. And and I do think that, you know, 3:43:57.720 --> 3:44:00.880 based on what the President is said publicly about it, 3:44:00.920 --> 3:44:04.160 I tota homedy, calling him a sick man, I. 3:44:04.160 --> 3:44:04.840 To a homedy. 3:44:04.879 --> 3:44:10.840 We know from you know, FBI statements that Iran has 3:44:10.879 --> 3:44:13.920 been trying to assassinate President Trump during the ten year 3:44:13.920 --> 3:44:17.920 of President Biden. And so you know, my sense is 3:44:17.959 --> 3:44:22.760 that you will see more likely this kind of major 3:44:22.840 --> 3:44:27.520 economic stranglehold and the hopes that that will lead to 3:44:27.560 --> 3:44:32.800 either Iran capitulating or some kind of action to force 3:44:32.879 --> 3:44:34.000 political change in Europe. 3:44:34.760 --> 3:44:38.640 Now, kareem, after thirty to forty thousand people have been 3:44:39.120 --> 3:44:42.440 mowed down in the streets and besieged, and revolutionary guard 3:44:42.560 --> 3:44:44.800 going to the hospitals and shooting people and the bodies 3:44:44.840 --> 3:44:47.000 are left on the sidewalk with little video we have 3:44:47.080 --> 3:44:51.199 is horrific. That's gotten out what you can. Is it 3:44:51.240 --> 3:44:54.320 even fair to expect the Iranian straight to rise up 3:44:54.360 --> 3:44:58.040 a second time after that kind of a devastating blow 3:44:58.080 --> 3:44:58.720 from the regime. 3:45:01.000 --> 3:45:05.680 It's not likely in the immediate term because people are 3:45:05.720 --> 3:45:08.720 in retreat, you know, they're just in shock, and as 3:45:08.720 --> 3:45:12.600 I mentioned from the outset, their communication ability is very 3:45:12.640 --> 3:45:15.200 limited given how the regime has throttled the Internet and 3:45:16.920 --> 3:45:21.480 satellite television and cellular communication, and so I think they're 3:45:21.480 --> 3:45:24.840 in retreat. But as I point out to people here, 3:45:24.879 --> 3:45:29.320 the nineteen seventy nine revolution was a thirteen month process. 3:45:29.480 --> 3:45:34.199 It essentially began in January seventy eight, and Kumani didn't 3:45:34.280 --> 3:45:37.560 arrive in Tehran until February nineteen seventy nine, and so 3:45:37.640 --> 3:45:41.560 we're only really one month into this process. And it's 3:45:41.640 --> 3:45:45.320 strongly my view that whatever the United States chooses to do, 3:45:46.080 --> 3:45:49.480 Iran is a country on the cusp of some kind 3:45:49.520 --> 3:45:52.680 of transformation, because, as I said, not only the society 3:45:52.720 --> 3:45:55.960 has realized, but even within the regime they've realized that 3:45:56.480 --> 3:45:59.640 this status quo is not tenable. 3:46:00.680 --> 3:46:04.560 Krim, how are they even eating that commerce in and 3:46:04.560 --> 3:46:06.720 out of the country is down to nothing, The real 3:46:06.879 --> 3:46:09.920 is worth nothing. I don't know what the farmers are doing. 3:46:10.480 --> 3:46:12.600 Why are the reports you're able to get on the 3:46:12.720 --> 3:46:16.560 quality of life for the average lower to low class 3:46:16.640 --> 3:46:20.000 individual in terms of income, It must be horrific. 3:46:21.240 --> 3:46:25.040 It is horrific because the middle class has been totally decimated, 3:46:25.080 --> 3:46:28.680 the currency has been totally decimated, and it's there's no 3:46:28.800 --> 3:46:32.680 rock bottom. It keeps sinking. I'm sure others have pointed out, 3:46:32.680 --> 3:46:36.600 and you show that the Runian currency visa VI the 3:46:36.680 --> 3:46:40.080 US dollar has depreciated something like ninety nine point nine 3:46:40.080 --> 3:46:43.480 percent from nineteen seventy nine to the present. So people 3:46:43.520 --> 3:46:49.360 are scraping to get by. And what we oftentimes see 3:46:49.440 --> 3:46:52.960 Hue is only what's happening in Tehran. But you know, 3:46:53.040 --> 3:46:57.320 perhaps only a quarter or so of the Runians live 3:46:57.600 --> 3:47:01.840 in the capitol, and I think both economic devastation and 3:47:01.920 --> 3:47:05.560 the brutality is much greater in the places that we 3:47:06.000 --> 3:47:09.760 don't see with the same frequency as we see Tehrone. 3:47:09.760 --> 3:47:11.960 Last question before this break, and then one more question 3:47:12.280 --> 3:47:14.720 to the people. Believe any of the theology that the 3:47:14.760 --> 3:47:18.840 Iatolas put forward Kareem or have they just view it 3:47:18.840 --> 3:47:19.720 as words? 3:47:21.080 --> 3:47:23.880 You know, I think it's very similar to late eighties 3:47:24.120 --> 3:47:28.039 Soviet Union, in which not only within the society but 3:47:28.120 --> 3:47:31.879 within the regime you have very few true believers left 3:47:31.920 --> 3:47:33.560 in the system. In fact, a friend of mine who 3:47:33.600 --> 3:47:36.200 was a professor in Tarhron said, at the beginning of 3:47:36.240 --> 3:47:39.800 the revolution, the regime was eighty percent idiologues and twenty 3:47:39.800 --> 3:47:43.640 percent Charlatan's and now it's the reverse, only perhaps even 3:47:43.680 --> 3:47:46.600 within the regime only twenty percent true believers, So in 3:47:46.640 --> 3:47:48.440 society I would say it's even less than that. 3:47:49.360 --> 3:47:52.560 I'll be back with one more segment with Kareem Sadjapor. 3:47:52.760 --> 3:47:56.200 You can follow them on actually a k sajipor and 3:47:56.240 --> 3:47:58.120 you can read them in the Atlantic. You've got a 3:47:58.120 --> 3:48:01.000 great competion in the current Atlantic as well at the 3:48:01.080 --> 3:48:06.480 Karnegie Endowment. Stay tuned, Welcome back America. I'm huge Hewett. 3:48:07.040 --> 3:48:09.320 I wanted to save the most delicate issue for the 3:48:09.400 --> 3:48:12.040 last career, which is the role of Israel in anycoming 3:48:12.200 --> 3:48:15.879 conflict between the United States and Iran. National Security Advisor, 3:48:15.920 --> 3:48:18.640 the equivalent of national security advisor in Iran, said, if 3:48:18.680 --> 3:48:21.640 there's any conflict with the United States, we're throwing everything 3:48:21.680 --> 3:48:24.920 we got at Israel. What do you expect their role 3:48:24.959 --> 3:48:26.640 to be? What do you want their role to be? 3:48:26.720 --> 3:48:30.080 Does their participation make it more or less difficult to 3:48:30.080 --> 3:48:30.920 topple the regime? 3:48:32.680 --> 3:48:36.800 Well, Israel obviously showed over the last couple of years 3:48:36.800 --> 3:48:41.920 that militarily they're far superior to Iran, even though Iran 3:48:42.000 --> 3:48:45.200 is seventy five times larger as a nation state. 3:48:45.280 --> 3:48:48.320 And so it was Israel which paved. 3:48:48.000 --> 3:48:50.480 The way for the United States to take action because 3:48:50.480 --> 3:48:53.680 they took out Iran's air defenses. And going back to 3:48:53.680 --> 3:48:58.160 what I said earlier about restoring connectivity in Iran, Israel, 3:48:58.920 --> 3:49:04.440 which has a very phisicated cyber capability, Israel was able 3:49:04.520 --> 3:49:07.840 to help restore connectivity within Iran. I think it's something 3:49:07.880 --> 3:49:12.920 that would be greatly appreciated. But they have because they're 3:49:12.920 --> 3:49:15.880 within missile range of Iran and it's a much smaller country, 3:49:16.280 --> 3:49:18.760 things are much more delicate for them. And so that's 3:49:18.800 --> 3:49:23.000 why that's among the many reasons why you have a 3:49:23.120 --> 3:49:26.840 huge US presence now in the region and everyone is 3:49:27.080 --> 3:49:30.160 on alert because ultimately Iranian missiles are not going to 3:49:30.200 --> 3:49:33.400 reach the US home land, but they could indeed go 3:49:33.480 --> 3:49:35.400 after Israel and cause some real damage. 3:49:36.000 --> 3:49:38.800 So kareem to wrap this. Everybody in DC talks to 3:49:38.840 --> 3:49:41.440 you about this. So I'm just curious, off the record, 3:49:41.800 --> 3:49:43.960 what did the other countries in the region not named 3:49:44.040 --> 3:49:48.040 Israel in the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United 3:49:48.080 --> 3:49:50.920 Arab Memorirates got her? What do they want to see happen? 3:49:51.000 --> 3:49:53.160 Do they want this regime to stay there? It seems 3:49:53.160 --> 3:49:56.240 like it's an endless source of woes for a region 3:49:56.280 --> 3:49:57.560 that ought to be booming. 3:50:00.040 --> 3:50:04.120 I think the only country, major country in the world 3:50:04.160 --> 3:50:07.960 which benefits from keeping the Lower Republic iround is Russia, 3:50:08.000 --> 3:50:11.920 because as long as Iran is isolated, it can't exploit 3:50:11.960 --> 3:50:15.800 its vast natural gas and oil reserves. It doesn't compete 3:50:15.880 --> 3:50:18.440 with Russia as it should in global energy markets. It's 3:50:18.440 --> 3:50:20.840 a thorn in the society of the United States. It 3:50:20.960 --> 3:50:24.280 can't compete with Russia and its historic sphere of influence 3:50:24.360 --> 3:50:28.280 Central Asia. Obviously, you know, smaller countries like North Korea 3:50:28.440 --> 3:50:30.760 like to keep it around as well. But the regional countries, 3:50:31.440 --> 3:50:34.520 I don't think any of them like the status quo 3:50:34.880 --> 3:50:37.840 of a country on their border that is so deeply 3:50:37.920 --> 3:50:42.520 ideological and destabilizing. But a lot of them, for various reasons, 3:50:42.720 --> 3:50:45.840 worry about conflict. They worry that they could be retaliated 3:50:45.880 --> 3:50:49.040 against in the case of our golf partners in Saide 3:50:49.040 --> 3:50:53.360 Arabia and Ue the country like Turkey, worries about chaos 3:50:53.400 --> 3:50:58.000 that could spill over refugees into their territory. So everyone 3:50:58.400 --> 3:51:01.600 is watching this very careful. But I think most of 3:51:01.600 --> 3:51:04.560 those regional countries, if they could push a button and 3:51:04.720 --> 3:51:08.800 have a clean transition to a nationalist government, in Iran 3:51:08.880 --> 3:51:11.640 rather than an ideological government in Iran. I think the 3:51:11.720 --> 3:51:12.960 vast majority of them would do that. 3:51:13.760 --> 3:51:16.960 And is there any worry on your part that Iran 3:51:17.080 --> 3:51:19.280 is play sleeper sales In the United States, they sent 3:51:19.360 --> 3:51:21.760 people to assassinate people here before. They've tried to kill 3:51:21.800 --> 3:51:25.080 President Trump. We know that, But what about a widespread 3:51:25.360 --> 3:51:28.800 has the law or related network. Have you got concerns there? 3:51:30.200 --> 3:51:32.400 I'm not too worried about that in the United States. 3:51:33.040 --> 3:51:36.800 In Europe they have carried out operations and usually here 3:51:37.400 --> 3:51:40.360 it's not Iranian nationals that are doing that. They pay 3:51:40.840 --> 3:51:46.320 European Russian criminal gangs or or Pakistani radicals to carry 3:51:46.320 --> 3:51:50.920 out these activities. So that is, you know, certainly a possibility. 3:51:51.000 --> 3:51:54.600 But at the moment, you know, I think that given 3:51:54.920 --> 3:51:58.080 how the news is tightening around their neck, and as 3:51:58.080 --> 3:52:01.360 you mentioned from the odds, even the Europeans have prescribed 3:52:01.400 --> 3:52:06.080 them their revolutionary regards as a terrorist organization, I don't 3:52:06.120 --> 3:52:08.560 think their first instinct is to want to create even 3:52:08.600 --> 3:52:10.040 more problems for themselves. 3:52:10.320 --> 3:52:13.000 Yeah, very last question. What is the ceiling? We know 3:52:13.040 --> 3:52:15.760 it's hit rock bottom and they keep digging a hole 3:52:15.800 --> 3:52:18.400 into which they can fall off the floor. What's the 3:52:18.440 --> 3:52:21.240 ceiling for Iran if they were run by even a 3:52:21.280 --> 3:52:23.560 minimally competent nationalist government. 3:52:24.760 --> 3:52:28.040 That's a wonderful question, and it is something which I 3:52:28.040 --> 3:52:31.320 think is obviously in the US national interests. Kissinger once said, 3:52:31.320 --> 3:52:33.920 their few nations in the world with whom the United 3:52:33.920 --> 3:52:36.840 States and the United States has more common interest and 3:52:36.920 --> 3:52:39.840 less reason to world than Iran. And it's my view 3:52:39.880 --> 3:52:44.320 that given Iran's enormous human capital, it's enormous natural resources, 3:52:44.600 --> 3:52:47.800 it's very rich history, this should be a G twenty nation. 3:52:48.040 --> 3:52:50.240 It should be you know, Saudi Arabia, Turkey r G 3:52:50.360 --> 3:52:53.360 twenty nations. Iran should be in that category. You know, 3:52:53.400 --> 3:52:56.960 in nineteen seventy eight, q Iran's GDP was are on 3:52:57.040 --> 3:53:00.360 the same level as Spain and South Korea. And you 3:53:00.400 --> 3:53:02.960 see where those countries are now and where Iran is now. 3:53:03.000 --> 3:53:06.280 And it just shows you what a profound difference leadership makes. 3:53:06.280 --> 3:53:09.480 And I do believe that this country, once it has 3:53:09.600 --> 3:53:13.920 proper leadership, it could have one of the highest growth 3:53:14.000 --> 3:53:14.320 rates in. 3:53:14.320 --> 3:53:15.400 The coming years. 3:53:16.080 --> 3:53:20.400 And I have bonus question, does the United Nations contribute 3:53:20.560 --> 3:53:26.600 anything to Iran? Are they protecting World historic sites? Are 3:53:26.600 --> 3:53:28.960 they doing any kind of relief. Have they been any 3:53:28.960 --> 3:53:30.280 help at all in Iran? 3:53:32.240 --> 3:53:33.160 Not terribly. 3:53:33.240 --> 3:53:35.720 When it comes to the politics, you know, you're only 3:53:35.800 --> 3:53:38.160 used to have a large Afghan refugee presence, and so 3:53:38.400 --> 3:53:41.160 United Nations UNHCR was helpful there. And I do want 3:53:41.160 --> 3:53:43.360 to give a shout out to the new head of UNHCR, 3:53:43.440 --> 3:53:47.360 the former president of Iraq, Badramsali, was a brilliant and 3:53:47.440 --> 3:53:52.760 wonderful guy. But to your question, you know, National Geographic 3:53:52.840 --> 3:53:56.760 Magazine once called Iran the world's first superpower, and so 3:53:56.880 --> 3:54:01.440 there are enormous, amazing historic site and Iran and it 3:54:01.520 --> 3:54:04.640 will be, hopefully one day soon a great destination for 3:54:05.440 --> 3:54:07.400 Western and American tourists. 3:54:07.800 --> 3:54:10.360 I hope you are right. Kareem Sadupor. Thank you for 3:54:10.440 --> 3:54:13.680 joining me for this extended period of time. I'll continue 3:54:13.720 --> 3:54:15.760 to read and follow you on axt You can do that, 3:54:15.880 --> 3:54:19.960 by the way, America at k Sajipor you cannot miss it. 3:54:20.000 --> 3:54:22.200 And his new article in the Atlantic is not to 3:54:22.240 --> 3:54:24.680 be missed as well. One of those experts that you 3:54:24.680 --> 3:54:28.080 can really trust on everything having to do with Iran. 3:54:28.480 --> 3:54:31.160 Thank you, Kareem. I want to remind everyone if if 3:54:31.160 --> 3:54:33.160 you miss part of this interview, we will post it 3:54:33.440 --> 3:54:36.360 later at tohewit dot com. It'll be over on YouTube 3:54:36.360 --> 3:54:36.840 as well.