1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things

2
00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,280
Speaker 1: Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to

3
00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:08,800
Speaker 1: take advantage of the many free online courses there, and

4
00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:11,119
Speaker 1: of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of

5
00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,560
Speaker 1: them at Q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple,

6
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:18,880
Speaker 1: iTunes and Hillsdale Morning Laura and Evening Grace America. I'm

7
00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,560
Speaker 1: Hugh Hewittt. Special emergency pod this week is war Looms

8
00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:25,439
Speaker 1: with Iran. It's an edition of the Big Weekend Pod,

9
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:31,520
Speaker 1: which will be available over whoever podcasts are saleing podcast Network, iTunes, Spotify.

10
00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,479
Speaker 1: But this is the emergency podcast to get you up

11
00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,040
Speaker 1: to speed if you've been on vacation or just sleepwalking

12
00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,000
Speaker 1: to the last three weeks. President Trump came on my

13
00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:45,360
Speaker 1: program on January eighth and talk some tough talk about Iran.

14
00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,480
Speaker 1: He followed up that night with a conversation with Sean

15
00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,199
Speaker 1: Andy in which he doubled down on it, then a

16
00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,720
Speaker 1: couple of days later with Tony Decopple and on CBS,

17
00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,240
Speaker 1: and then a few more times both at True Social

18
00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,560
Speaker 1: on X and Drop Buys with report on the Way

19
00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,280
Speaker 1: In and Out. From that time forward, I've been devoting

20
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,720
Speaker 1: a lot of my program to thinking about exactly what

21
00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,000
Speaker 1: would that mean, what would it look like? And I

22
00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,640
Speaker 1: found the very best experts I can. I can't put

23
00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,319
Speaker 1: all fifteen experts together onto one podcast. It's going to

24
00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,880
Speaker 1: be a pretty long podcast as it is. But I

25
00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,080
Speaker 1: got for you the part from my interview with President

26
00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,039
Speaker 1: Trump about Iran, and then we have lined up have

27
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,800
Speaker 1: you ready gore all the way through Kareem Sadjupur, who

28
00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 1: was on Friday of this week. If you want to

29
00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,560
Speaker 1: be ready for whatever is coming, might be nothing and

30
00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,480
Speaker 1: it might be something very big, I suggest you listened

31
00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:41,319
Speaker 1: to this very special edition of highly concentrated Hugh. Good Morning,

32
00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,000
Speaker 1: Glory and Amy, Grace America. I'm Hugh Hewett, proud to

33
00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,360
Speaker 1: welcome back to the UUs Show President Donald Trump. Happy

34
00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:49,280
Speaker 1: New Year, mister Trump. Good to have you back.

35
00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,040
Speaker 2: Well, thank you very much. You thank you very much.

36
00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:53,400
Speaker 1: I don't want to waste your time, so I'm going

37
00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,680
Speaker 1: to dive right in and begin with Iran. Michael Durant

38
00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,720
Speaker 1: at the Hudson Institute says, the regime there is failing.

39
00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:06,000
Speaker 1: They have fuel shortages, electricity shortages, water shortage. Kareem Sajiport.

40
00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:10,440
Speaker 1: Carnegie is posting the videos of the spreading protests. Mark Dubovitz,

41
00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,160
Speaker 1: So this is a quote. If President Trump brings down

42
00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,079
Speaker 1: the Islamic Republic of Iran, he will cement his place

43
00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,120
Speaker 1: as the greatest foreign policy president since Ronald Reagan. I

44
00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:19,519
Speaker 1: think it would.

45
00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:20,960
Speaker 2: Actually I already did that.

46
00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,520
Speaker 1: I thought I just about that with Midnight Hammer. You

47
00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:25,120
Speaker 1: did that? How much well can I do?

48
00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:25,360
Speaker 3: You know?

49
00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:29,560
Speaker 2: We just had Venezuela, which has had Midnight Hammer. We

50
00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:31,519
Speaker 2: settled eight wars, eight.

51
00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:32,000
Speaker 1: In the quarter.

52
00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:35,280
Speaker 2: But I'm willing to accept that. I'm willing to accept it.

53
00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:39,320
Speaker 1: What about Iran? Is the aim with Iran the collapse

54
00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,919
Speaker 1: of that awful forty seven year tyranny.

55
00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:43,959
Speaker 2: Well, I don't want to say it, but I will

56
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,560
Speaker 2: tell you they're not doing well, as you know, probably

57
00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 2: better than anybody. They're doing very poorly. And I have

58
00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,680
Speaker 2: let them know that if they start killing people, which

59
00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:54,959
Speaker 2: they tend to do during their riots they have lots

60
00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:57,680
Speaker 2: of riots, if they do it, we're going to hit

61
00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:58,480
Speaker 2: them very hard.

62
00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,120
Speaker 1: Now dozens have been killed. I know you don't do

63
00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,440
Speaker 1: red lines, but if you communicated to them what that

64
00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,880
Speaker 1: limit of your patience.

65
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,919
Speaker 2: Is, well, some have been killed by problems of crowd

66
00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,840
Speaker 2: control and other things. We're watching it very closely. The

67
00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,040
Speaker 2: crowds are so large. There's been a stampede. There's been

68
00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,080
Speaker 2: three stampedes, and people have been killed in that. And

69
00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,919
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I can necessarily hold somebody responsible for that.

70
00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,560
Speaker 2: But they know, and they've been told very strongly, even

71
00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:30,640
Speaker 2: more strongly than I'm speaking to you right now, that

72
00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:32,959
Speaker 2: if they do that, they're going to have to pay.

73
00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 3: Hell.

74
00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:35,560
Speaker 1: Do you have a message for the people of Iran,

75
00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:36,440
Speaker 1: President Trump?

76
00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,640
Speaker 2: All I can say is you should. You should feel

77
00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,720
Speaker 2: strongly about freedom. There's nothing like freedom. Your brave people.

78
00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,360
Speaker 2: It's a shame what's happened to your country. Your country

79
00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,640
Speaker 2: was a great country. I remember years ago when I

80
00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:53,280
Speaker 2: was a young real estate developer. Friends of mine went

81
00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,320
Speaker 2: to Iran and they did great. They built buildings in Iran.

82
00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,800
Speaker 2: They're still up barely by the way, but there's still

83
00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,880
Speaker 2: I see pictures of the apartment houses. And they did

84
00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:07,440
Speaker 2: very well in Iran. I ran, they passed away. They

85
00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,760
Speaker 2: were very successful developers. They were great people, mostly New

86
00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,560
Speaker 2: York developments, but they went to Iran and they built

87
00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:17,200
Speaker 2: some pretty good jobs in Iran. And I remember they

88
00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,119
Speaker 2: were saying that people are great. The whole place was great.

89
00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,560
Speaker 2: It was a tremendous market. And now you look at it,

90
00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:26,000
Speaker 2: Look what's happened.

91
00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,359
Speaker 1: I sat in the office of former President Nixon with

92
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,040
Speaker 1: Great Price on a couch with our end, watching the

93
00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,600
Speaker 1: fall of the shot, and he just kept shaking his hat.

94
00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,679
Speaker 1: He couldn't believe Jimmy Carter was letting it happen. Would

95
00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,400
Speaker 1: you meet with Crown Prince pob Lobby Poblai, who is

96
00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:46,360
Speaker 1: the heir to the constitutional monarchy. He doesn't want to rule.

97
00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:50,880
Speaker 1: He would be a symbolic ruler like King Charles Well.

98
00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,480
Speaker 2: I've watched him and he just seems like a nice person.

99
00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,640
Speaker 2: But I'm not sure that it would be appropriate at

100
00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,200
Speaker 2: this point to do that. As president. I think that

101
00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,760
Speaker 2: we should let everybody go out there and we see

102
00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:07,120
Speaker 2: who emerges. I'm not sure necessarily that I it would

103
00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:08,280
Speaker 2: be an appropriate thing to do.

104
00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,760
Speaker 1: All right, let me switch to China. Mister President, last

105
00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:12,840
Speaker 1: time we talked, and now he's ask you this. I

106
00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,479
Speaker 1: asked you about Jimmy Lai, who is dying in real time.

107
00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,680
Speaker 1: He's been convicted. Have you talked to Jijenping? I know

108
00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:19,159
Speaker 1: you get.

109
00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,200
Speaker 2: Along with it. I have, I have. I talked to

110
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:23,400
Speaker 2: him and I mentioned Jimmy Lee. I don't know Jimmy Lai.

111
00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,720
Speaker 2: I know of Jimmy Lai, and he was an activist,

112
00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,440
Speaker 2: to put it mildly, but a positive activist. But if

113
00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,239
Speaker 2: you're a Presidency, he wasn't a positive activist. I spoke

114
00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:38,599
Speaker 2: to Presidency when I was in South Korea and we

115
00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,400
Speaker 2: had a great talk about it, and I left it

116
00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,040
Speaker 2: with him. He didn't give me an answer one way

117
00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,320
Speaker 2: or the other. But obviously so far it hasn't been

118
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,200
Speaker 2: I got a lot of other answers that turned out positive.

119
00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:50,680
Speaker 2: I haven't heard back on that one.

120
00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,440
Speaker 1: If Jimmy Lai was free, would you consider that to

121
00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:57,120
Speaker 1: be a very significant gesture by China? I would.

122
00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:58,680
Speaker 2: I think it would be a great thing. I think

123
00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:04,560
Speaker 2: I told President's that he's an old man who's very sick.

124
00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,479
Speaker 2: I met his son, who is a very nice young

125
00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,880
Speaker 2: man who loves his father a lot. His son is

126
00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,720
Speaker 2: the primary person that's working very hard to get him out,

127
00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:15,600
Speaker 2: and I felt I owed it to the son. I

128
00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:17,320
Speaker 2: like the son. I mean, look, I don't know him,

129
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,760
Speaker 2: but I met him fairly briefly, but I love that

130
00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:21,760
Speaker 2: he was fighting hard for his father. I thought that

131
00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:25,280
Speaker 2: was I like to see sons that fight hard for fathers,

132
00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:27,920
Speaker 2: and he was certainly doing that. And I mentioned that

133
00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,279
Speaker 2: during my meeting early on in my meeting as a

134
00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,360
Speaker 2: list of things that I'd like to talk about, but

135
00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,120
Speaker 2: we have not heard back on that one.

136
00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,240
Speaker 1: All right, let me turn to Cuba, mister president. For

137
00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:42,240
Speaker 1: sixty seven years, that police state dictatorship has sucked the

138
00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,480
Speaker 1: lifeblood out of the people of that island. Is it

139
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,560
Speaker 1: time to increase the pressure there, maybe even quarantine it

140
00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:49,960
Speaker 1: as you have Venezuela.

141
00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:52,240
Speaker 2: Well, I don't think you can have much more pressure

142
00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,800
Speaker 2: other than going in and blasting the hell out of

143
00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:59,440
Speaker 2: the place. Look, they are their whole life blood, their

144
00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,160
Speaker 2: whole life was Venezuela. They got their oil, they got

145
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:05,160
Speaker 2: their money from Venezuela. And as you know, when our

146
00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,760
Speaker 2: great soldiers went and we had nobody killed, they lost

147
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:13,160
Speaker 2: many Cuban fighters during that battle. Many amazing job that

148
00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,880
Speaker 2: the American soldiers did, led by a man who happens

149
00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:20,920
Speaker 2: to be sitting right next to me, General Caine. Ah

150
00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,000
Speaker 2: a job, what a job he did. And Pete Hegseth did,

151
00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,600
Speaker 2: and the whole group. What a job they all did.

152
00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:30,880
Speaker 2: It's amazing. Actually, John Ratcliffe is walking in, Marco Rubio

153
00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,160
Speaker 2: is walking in. We have a whole group of people here.

154
00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:37,200
Speaker 2: They're all fans of yours. They're not walking in to

155
00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,040
Speaker 2: listen to this call. They just happened to be walking

156
00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:41,080
Speaker 2: in for the next meeting.

157
00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:43,760
Speaker 1: I got a little advice for you, mister President. Don't

158
00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,920
Speaker 1: play golf and give strokes to Director Ratcliffe. Don't do that.

159
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:48,160
Speaker 1: Don't get many strokes.

160
00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,280
Speaker 2: He's a good golfer and he's a very good guy too.

161
00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:55,960
Speaker 1: Back to Cuba, Miguel Diez Canal. Do you think he

162
00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:59,280
Speaker 1: could fall like Hamini and Iran might fall?

163
00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,720
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think. I look, I think that Cuba is

164
00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,440
Speaker 2: hanging by a thread. Cuba's in big trouble. Look, Cuba

165
00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,680
Speaker 2: got all of its money for protecting. They were like

166
00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,320
Speaker 2: a protector. They're tough, strong people, they're great people. Marco

167
00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,280
Speaker 2: has a little Cuban blood in him. I think Marco's

168
00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,280
Speaker 2: not doing a bad job, right, What do you think?

169
00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:22,080
Speaker 2: Can I ask you one question? How is Marco Rubio doing?

170
00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,440
Speaker 1: Is the equal of any secretary of state in my lifetime?

171
00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,520
Speaker 1: And I'm glad he's not taking the Dolphins job. He

172
00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:29,720
Speaker 1: should work for the Browns if he leaves your administration,

173
00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:31,880
Speaker 1: that's right, all right, Yeah.

174
00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:35,160
Speaker 2: He goes will be successful. But no, I think that

175
00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,560
Speaker 2: I think that Cuba is really in a lot of trouble.

176
00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,760
Speaker 2: But you know, people have been saying that for many years.

177
00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,320
Speaker 2: In all fairness about Cuban. Cuba has been in trouble

178
00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 2: for the last forty five years, and you know, they

179
00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,800
Speaker 2: haven't quite gone down, but I think they're pretty close

180
00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:49,959
Speaker 2: of their own volition.

181
00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,640
Speaker 1: I want to try and define the Trump doctrine, mister President.

182
00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:55,800
Speaker 1: I've been trying to do it on the air. It's

183
00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,280
Speaker 1: down to that, don't kill or threaten Americans or our

184
00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,840
Speaker 1: property or American security in general, or we will hit

185
00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:04,000
Speaker 1: you very very hard.

186
00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,000
Speaker 2: Is that the same and included in theirs don't send

187
00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:09,280
Speaker 2: drugs and don't send things that are going to kill

188
00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:12,160
Speaker 2: our people. But you can you can sort of make

189
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,440
Speaker 2: the savement that you've indirectly said that, but it's a

190
00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,640
Speaker 2: pretty direct statement, don't send drugs into our country.

191
00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 1: It's a great doctrine. Now the next question. I'm a

192
00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,880
Speaker 1: Salem host of Fox Contributors, so this is a bit unusual.

193
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,680
Speaker 1: Brett Bair does the best interviews with you. I'm exempting

194
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,240
Speaker 1: myself from consideration, but I think you got to give

195
00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:34,199
Speaker 1: Tony Dokapol a chance over at CBS to see if

196
00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:35,640
Speaker 1: they've really changed their ways.

197
00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,240
Speaker 2: Is that on the agenda, Well, it hasn't been on

198
00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:41,480
Speaker 2: the agenda, but if you recommend it, I would do it.

199
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:42,120
Speaker 1: I have a lot of.

200
00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:44,880
Speaker 2: Respect for you, as you know, and I think you're

201
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:46,800
Speaker 2: doing a great job, and you've done a great job.

202
00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:48,559
Speaker 2: You went a little bit liberal on us for a

203
00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:53,520
Speaker 2: while when you were at nbcby I can't believe. I

204
00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,640
Speaker 2: couldn't believe you sitting on NBC trying to answer questions

205
00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,680
Speaker 2: that you didn't believe in. You only gave them partial answers.

206
00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:02,560
Speaker 2: You would never fully there, but you couldn't get out

207
00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,840
Speaker 2: fast enough. It was very fun to watch.

208
00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:06,880
Speaker 1: I'm happy with I.

209
00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,040
Speaker 2: Hear good things about Tony, and I can tell you

210
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:14,959
Speaker 2: that David Ellison is a fantastic guy and his father,

211
00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,280
Speaker 2: Larry is one of the great been good friends of mine,

212
00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,160
Speaker 2: both of them, but David's doing a fantastic job, and

213
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:22,520
Speaker 2: they feel very strongly about Tony.

214
00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:24,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't want Barry Weiss and Tony to overtake

215
00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,120
Speaker 1: Fox and Salem. But I would like you to give

216
00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:28,760
Speaker 1: him a shot to see if he's got the shop.

217
00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:30,439
Speaker 2: Well, it'll be important to you, I do it. No,

218
00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,280
Speaker 2: are you good things about Tony now?

219
00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,640
Speaker 1: You gave two hours of The New York Times yesterday.

220
00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,040
Speaker 1: I appreciate you. The most successful president to the media

221
00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:40,920
Speaker 1: in history, actually, but I would like to see you

222
00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,680
Speaker 1: sit down with Matt Contenetty, Guy Benson, Spencer Brown, Mary

223
00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:48,240
Speaker 1: Catherine Ham, the Mandels, Philip Wegaman. All of our superstar

224
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,480
Speaker 1: youngster people are under forty forty five. Is that on

225
00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,320
Speaker 1: the agenda sometimes to sit down with art it would

226
00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:54,679
Speaker 1: be I.

227
00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,400
Speaker 2: Mean, they have to ask, and it would be I

228
00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,160
Speaker 2: certainly like all the names that you mentioned, And I

229
00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,439
Speaker 2: will say that I think the Times treated me pretty

230
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:02,440
Speaker 2: fairly yesterday.

231
00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,720
Speaker 1: Well interesting, I haven't read it yet, the transcriptors and outs.

232
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:07,680
Speaker 2: I'm waiting for the shock and it's a little hard

233
00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:11,439
Speaker 2: not to. We have the greatest potential economy in history.

234
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,320
Speaker 2: We have eighteen trillion dollars coming in the record is

235
00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,480
Speaker 2: three and that was from many, many years ago. We

236
00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:22,120
Speaker 2: have something that just took place with Venezuela that everybody

237
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,199
Speaker 2: considered as one of the most brilliant attacks they've ever seen.

238
00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,720
Speaker 2: And you know we had we lost no people in

239
00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,160
Speaker 2: the middle of a fort. Don't forget that house was

240
00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:32,840
Speaker 2: built in the middle of a fort with thousands of soldiers.

241
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,160
Speaker 2: They lost quite a few people. I hate to say that.

242
00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,840
Speaker 1: I talked to an active duty naval officer yesterday who's

243
00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:41,000
Speaker 1: very jealous that they were not there because it was

244
00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:42,360
Speaker 1: such an extraordinary mission.

245
00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,880
Speaker 2: You know what, we had an extraordinary attack a few

246
00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,240
Speaker 2: months ago in a place called Iran. We knocked out

247
00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:53,760
Speaker 2: the Iran nuclear threat and it was obliterated. And we

248
00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:57,360
Speaker 2: also took out Solomoni and we took out Al Bagdaddy.

249
00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,320
Speaker 2: So we've had some good attacks so far. We haven't

250
00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:05,040
Speaker 2: had the Afghanistan disaster. That was the lowest point I

251
00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,800
Speaker 2: think in the history of our country, Biden. But if

252
00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,920
Speaker 2: you look also the Jimmy Carter disaster, that was a

253
00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:14,040
Speaker 2: disaster with the hostages. And you know, when we were.

254
00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:15,720
Speaker 1: Very democratic president, a.

255
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,160
Speaker 2: Disaster two planes. I said, I hope it's not a

256
00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:19,160
Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter deal.

257
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:24,600
Speaker 1: Carter, Clinton, Obama, Biden. They've all been disasters in national security.

258
00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:25,760
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about it.

259
00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,400
Speaker 2: I haven't had I haven't had any disaster.

260
00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:29,720
Speaker 1: Yet, and I hope it stays that way.

261
00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:32,120
Speaker 2: I hope the word yet is going to disappear.

262
00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we got to talk about the Golden Fleet

263
00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,520
Speaker 1: because this is important. I want to take my hat

264
00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:38,880
Speaker 1: off to you on the Golden Fleet. We need guided

265
00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,160
Speaker 1: missile frigates and attack submarines and the Columbia class. And

266
00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,840
Speaker 1: the worst way is there going to be enough money

267
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,640
Speaker 1: in the budget to get everything built that we need,

268
00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:49,040
Speaker 1: including new shipyards.

269
00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:51,360
Speaker 2: Well, we are going to have plenty of money. And

270
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,840
Speaker 2: if you notice what I did yesterday, I told all

271
00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,480
Speaker 2: defence companies there's going to be no more buybacks. You're

272
00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,640
Speaker 2: going to put the money into building new plant and equipment,

273
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,080
Speaker 2: and going to be no more stock options, and there's

274
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,640
Speaker 2: going to be no more salaries of fifty million dollars

275
00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:07,480
Speaker 2: a year. You're gonna put the money in. We're going

276
00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,240
Speaker 2: to have a capped at five million dollars and that's

277
00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,240
Speaker 2: effective immediately, and all that money that they're sending out

278
00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:15,679
Speaker 2: is going to have to be and you know what,

279
00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:20,280
Speaker 2: the stock prices went up. The reason is I also

280
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,960
Speaker 2: put out a statement, a secondary statement saying that next

281
00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:26,240
Speaker 2: year we expect to have one point five trillion in

282
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:30,160
Speaker 2: defense budget. And we're also building battleships. You know, we're

283
00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,760
Speaker 2: building great battleships. They have twenty five on schedule, but

284
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,200
Speaker 2: we're going to start with ten and then we'll see

285
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,440
Speaker 2: how that all goes. But we're going to build battleships.

286
00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,120
Speaker 2: And you know, I thought you remember from Victory at sea.

287
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:46,280
Speaker 2: You take a look at those great, gorgeous ships, the Iowa,

288
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:50,880
Speaker 2: the Alabama, the Missouri, those great ships and if you

289
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:51,840
Speaker 2: see you know what I'm talking.

290
00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, provided they've got lots of missile tubes on it.

291
00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,280
Speaker 1: I'm all for them. The more missile tubes that see,

292
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:56,760
Speaker 1: the better.

293
00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:58,760
Speaker 2: I said, why don't we take some of them out

294
00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:02,640
Speaker 2: of bath balls. The new ships will be one hundred

295
00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:06,840
Speaker 2: times more powerful than those battleships that we so admired.

296
00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:11,400
Speaker 1: Now I know you're up up upping the construction Philadelphia

297
00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,800
Speaker 1: Shipyard and enhancing capacity.

298
00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:14,439
Speaker 2: And numerous others.

299
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:16,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was wondering, are you gonna build a new.

300
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:17,800
Speaker 2: Walk into the shipbuilding business?

301
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,120
Speaker 1: That is that's the best news. Do people understand how

302
00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:22,600
Speaker 1: important that is to the economy.

303
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,760
Speaker 2: I think they know. But the Philadelphia Yard is one

304
00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:26,600
Speaker 2: of the yards that's going to be opened up. But

305
00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,080
Speaker 2: we have numerous yards that are opened up. Some of

306
00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,840
Speaker 2: those yards have been built up by housing projects. You know,

307
00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:34,040
Speaker 2: they're all in the water, so they tended to be

308
00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,600
Speaker 2: in nice locations. But we have many yards opening up,

309
00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,480
Speaker 2: and we're going to be very much back in the

310
00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:44,160
Speaker 2: shipbuilding business. And in some cases we're partnering with South

311
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,120
Speaker 2: Korea and others initially because we have to get you know,

312
00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,800
Speaker 2: we used to make almost a ship a day during

313
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,600
Speaker 2: World War Two and then we just totally got out

314
00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,960
Speaker 2: of that business stupidly. But we're back in the shipbuilding business.

315
00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:57,440
Speaker 1: We have to be all right now. I want to

316
00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,640
Speaker 1: switch to one of my other favorite topics with the

317
00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 1: image at the Supreme Court. I know you don't expect

318
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,280
Speaker 1: a retirement in the spring, but if one happens, you've

319
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:10,320
Speaker 1: appointed sixty Appeals Court judges. Would you expect to take

320
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,480
Speaker 1: either a runner up from last time? I Judge Ktlidge

321
00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,320
Speaker 1: or one of your appointees. Judge Row is fifty three

322
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,360
Speaker 1: on the DC Circuit. Judge Rushing on the fourth is

323
00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:23,200
Speaker 1: forty three. Judge Strass on the eighth is fifty one.

324
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,960
Speaker 1: A MultiPar is fifty six. Don Willets sixty. Then you

325
00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:29,280
Speaker 1: got Senator Cruz is fifty five, and you got District

326
00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,360
Speaker 1: Court Judge Eileen Cannon. I think she did a good

327
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 1: job in the Florida case. She's forty five.

328
00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,200
Speaker 2: Ye, she did a great job. She's a great judge.

329
00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,560
Speaker 1: Yes, she did, and she came to the right constitutional

330
00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,600
Speaker 1: conclusion about the illegality of the appointment.

331
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:44,320
Speaker 2: Highly respected. Yeah, So those are all great names. Every

332
00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,720
Speaker 2: one of those names is a great name. Now, Ted Cruz.

333
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,200
Speaker 2: The nice one about him is, we get a one

334
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:53,680
Speaker 2: hundred percent approval. Every Democrat would vote yes, and every

335
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 2: Republican would vote yes because they would love to get

336
00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:58,000
Speaker 2: him the hell out of the Senate, all of them,

337
00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,480
Speaker 2: so that he's the only one that would be guaranteed confirmation.

338
00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:03,960
Speaker 2: And he's a smart guy. He's a good guy. And

339
00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,760
Speaker 2: I say that jokingly, but I always say Ted would

340
00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,200
Speaker 2: get a one hundred percent approval. The Democrats want him out,

341
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,160
Speaker 2: the Republicans want him out, and he'd do great and

342
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,320
Speaker 2: he's smart. But all of the names that you mentioned

343
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 2: are great names, every one of them.

344
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,280
Speaker 1: I know who is advising you on judges this term,

345
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,040
Speaker 1: as Leonard is not and the Federal society is.

346
00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:28,840
Speaker 2: Not well I'm using some people actually that you know,

347
00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,480
Speaker 2: i'd rather tell you on a personal prisis, not on

348
00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 2: a phone call. But I have some very good people

349
00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 2: that are advising me, people that you know in respect.

350
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,800
Speaker 1: I have the legislative agenda for this year. I know

351
00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,200
Speaker 1: I watched your talk to the Republicans at the Trump

352
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,120
Speaker 1: County Center, and I know you talked about healthcare. That

353
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 1: would be great, but it would be easier to get

354
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 1: done if you have bundled it with, for example, the

355
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 1: Dreamers Act, the AM Radio in Every Car Act. Both

356
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 1: of those have got super majority. Do you think that's

357
00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,960
Speaker 1: the strategy, bundle healthcare with very popular laws, get them

358
00:16:58,960 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 1: to the floor and move them.

359
00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:03,080
Speaker 2: Well, I think healthcare is so big and so important

360
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:07,240
Speaker 2: that it probably supersedes some slightly less you know, a

361
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,919
Speaker 2: very popular thing, but less important. I like the AM

362
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,320
Speaker 2: in every car, the AM radio in every car. I

363
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 2: like that. I'm in favor of it. It's interesting. A

364
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,919
Speaker 2: lot of people don't know about that, but it's actually

365
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 2: a very big subject.

366
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:21,120
Speaker 1: So it's a huge deal.

367
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 2: It's a huge we're going to be doing something on that.

368
00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:26,199
Speaker 2: All of the things you mentioned I like, but I

369
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,159
Speaker 2: think healthcare is so big and so powerful, it's going

370
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 2: to really going to have to stand in his own way,

371
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,480
Speaker 2: all right. So I want, you know, with healthcare, it's

372
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 2: pretty simple. I want because if you take a look,

373
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,440
Speaker 2: I don't know if you study insurance companies, but these

374
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:43,399
Speaker 2: guys have made literally trillions of dollars. I want the

375
00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 2: money to go directly to the people and let the

376
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 2: people buy their own healthcare, and everybody loves it.

377
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,760
Speaker 1: I do too. I think that would be a genius.

378
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:54,879
Speaker 1: I just think to get Democratic vote you might have

379
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 1: to put the Dreamers Act in or the Radio Act.

380
00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 2: In along with the Democrats is they're totally in bed

381
00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 2: with the insurance companies. And what you know, what I'm

382
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 2: doing is the exact opposite. I'm giving the money to

383
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 2: the people. They've given the money to the insurance companies.

384
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 2: It's hard for them to vote against the insurance companies

385
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,880
Speaker 2: who have made a fortune because of the Democrats.

386
00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,359
Speaker 1: Now, Miss President, when we have that sit down that

387
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 1: probably talk about judges, I would like to talk to

388
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 1: you about Richard Nixon, because I believe your understanding of

389
00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,720
Speaker 1: American power projection is very similar to his, and I

390
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 1: think he also liked to keep people guessing. Some people

391
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 1: call it the Madman theory. I just thought it was

392
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,840
Speaker 1: a strategic sense. Do you think that comparison is apt?

393
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 2: Well, look, I don't know. We're just respected. We're respected

394
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 2: again as a country, and I'm respected, but we're respected.

395
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 2: We had a president who shouldn't have been there. First

396
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 2: of all, it was a rigged election, and that's now

397
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 2: coming out loud and clear. But we knew that. I

398
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 2: knew that four years ago. But it was just a rigged,

399
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,400
Speaker 2: horrible election. That's where we go. We got a man

400
00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 2: that allowed millions of people our country from jails and

401
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 2: mental institutions and drug dealers, and what a shame that

402
00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,800
Speaker 2: what Biden was just a horrible president. And you know,

403
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 2: if she would have won, which is the equivalent, if

404
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 2: she would have won, our country would have been right

405
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,480
Speaker 2: now Venezuela on steria disaster.

406
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 1: A disaster, and Tim Wills would have been the vice

407
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,199
Speaker 1: president instead of vice president of Vance. I can't believe it.

408
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 1: Let me turn to politics. In my last couple of minutes,

409
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,160
Speaker 1: mister president, I want to honor your time. You crush

410
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 1: the debates in twenty fifteen sixteen. The last one was

411
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 1: just Secretary Rubio Senator Cruizer, We've talked about Governor kh

412
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 1: and U, and then there were no more. You skip

413
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,679
Speaker 1: the debates in twenty five, twenty three, twenty four. You

414
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 1: will control, You will whether or not the GOP has

415
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 1: debates in twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty eight. Do you

416
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 1: think they are a good thing for the party or

417
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 1: a bad thing? Do you want to have them or

418
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 1: do you not want to have them?

419
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,440
Speaker 2: Well, I always liked them. For me, I love debating.

420
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:55,640
Speaker 2: But I think I did the right thing. I had,

421
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 2: you know, ten people. They're all smart people, they're you know,

422
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,160
Speaker 2: governors and senators, and I figured, why should I allow

423
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 2: myself to be whacked by all ten people? At the

424
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 2: same time, I think I did a very fun A

425
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:08,679
Speaker 2: lot of people said you have to be in the debates.

426
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 2: I said, I don't think I do. And then I

427
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,199
Speaker 2: had the debate with Biden, which turned out to be

428
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,119
Speaker 2: a good debate. I don't think I got enough credit

429
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 2: for that debate because I made him choke, but he

430
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,879
Speaker 2: didn't do well in that debate. And the interesting thing is,

431
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,919
Speaker 2: without that debate, would he have been allowed to continue running.

432
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,199
Speaker 1: Uh, Yes, he would have been, and that would have

433
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 1: been a disaster. For the party, even worse than Kamala Harris,

434
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,199
Speaker 1: because you can't hide the fact he was infirm. He

435
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 1: was infirm, he wasn't there well.

436
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 2: He didn't do too well, I would say that.

437
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:38,840
Speaker 1: So let's talk about the Democrats.

438
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 2: To wrap out is not the greatest go ahead.

439
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 1: Who is the strongest Democrat in twenty twenty eight? Gavin Newsom, AOC,

440
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:49,680
Speaker 1: Jasmine Crockett, Jared Poulos in Colorado, Chris van Holland, Wes Moore,

441
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 1: Andy Basheer. Who's their best choice?

442
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 2: You know, as you rattle off those names, I'm just

443
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: seeing in't and amazing. With three hundred and fifty people,

444
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 2: of course, we have no idea that Biden let and

445
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 2: so many nobody knows. But with let's say three hundred

446
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,959
Speaker 2: and fifty million people, that that's the best they can do,

447
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 2: it's pretty sad. I think Newsom's hurt because he's done

448
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 2: so badly in California. He has, he's done so so badly.

449
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 2: I just you know, look, he's a sort of a

450
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 2: good politician, but he doesn't get the job done. I

451
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 2: think people are gonna people aren't going to stand for that.

452
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 2: There's nobody. I do have a couple of people that

453
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 2: I think would be really tough candidates, but I don't

454
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: want to name him because not chosen.

455
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 1: Well, that does make some sense to me. Okay, let's

456
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 1: close with mister mayor, Mom Donnie, and you decide when

457
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 1: to conclude the interview. Mister President, I know you love

458
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 1: New York City. It's going to be a nightmare. I've

459
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 1: only lived there once. I've only lived there in nineteen eighty.

460
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 1: It's going to be worse than nineteen eighty, which was

461
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 1: damn bad and I left and went to law school

462
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,360
Speaker 1: because it was so bad. Will the city be able

463
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 1: to recover after?

464
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 2: Mom, Donnie, Well, it's going to be interesting. You know.

465
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,679
Speaker 2: I've met him and came to the Oval office. Yes,

466
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 2: we've had some nice conversations. Are very good. And then

467
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 2: he hit me a little bit on the tremendous victory

468
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 2: and you would say it was a tremendous victory on Venezuela,

469
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:10,719
Speaker 2: and I said, gee, I thought he would have at

470
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 2: least waited a month. I was surprised that he hit

471
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 2: me on that, but he did. You know, So, what

472
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,479
Speaker 2: are you going to do? Kid? I expected it. I

473
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 2: just thought it would be maybe three or four weeks

474
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 2: instead of immediately, because I do get along with him.

475
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 2: He's got a great personality, is a nice guy. His

476
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 2: policies are not good, but maybe he changes. You know,

477
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 2: That's what I would view because I want to do

478
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 2: everything I can to help New York. So I don't know.

479
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: I hope you're wrong. I hope New York is thrive,

480
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,439
Speaker 2: will thrive. But typically those policies, maybe you say not

481
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: only typically in history, those policies have never worked.

482
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: They did never work. The last thing I'll say to you,

483
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 1: miss President, Golden Dome is the most important legacy you're

484
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 1: going to leave if it gets built. I've read some

485
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 1: studies that say Ravenna, Ohio is where the hubb out

486
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 1: it be for space Force to control that because of

487
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: the polar ice cap. Have you decided where the central

488
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: lopecation of Golden Dome will be yet?

489
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 2: But I love Ohio, I can tell you that. And

490
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 2: I've worn Ohio big everything every time, and everybody I've

491
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: endorsed from Ohio is one and you know, it's been great.

492
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 2: But I've heard that's one of the one of the

493
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 2: places very much being considered.

494
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 1: All right, mister President, thank you for the time. I

495
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Come back again soon and I look forward

496
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 1: to talking to you again. Congratulations on a great first

497
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 1: year in your second term.

498
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. You take care of yourself. Thank bye.

499
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: Morning Glory and Evan Grayson Mac. I'm who ewit in

500
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 1: the Relief Actor Studio West. Earlier today, President Trump posted

501
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: on true Social and I want to read it to

502
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: you before we get to our guests. Avive Reddy Gore,

503
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 1: Iranian patriots now all in cap, keep protesting, take over

504
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 1: your institutions. Three exclamation points. Save the names of the

505
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 1: killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I've

506
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 1: canceled all meetings with the reading officials until the senseless

507
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 1: killing of protesters stops. All in caps, and then all

508
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 1: in cap help is on its way. Period. Miga MiG

509
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 1: Maker on great again, three exclamation points, President Donald J. Trump.

510
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 1: That posted at nine forty three am East Coast time.

511
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: I'm joined now by Aviv Retti Gore. Aviva is a

512
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: senior analyst for The Times Visrael. He's also a podcast

513
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 1: where the Ask Aviv Anything podcast comes in long form

514
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: and in short form. I listened to today's on the

515
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 1: two into Fadas, which gave me names and dates that

516
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: I didn't know. Aviv, Happy New Year to you, welcome back.

517
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 4: Thank you you good to be here. And also just

518
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 4: the Free Press. I'm also with the Free Press as

519
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 4: a Middle East aily.

520
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: I've always got to say that Times Visual the Free Press,

521
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 1: and then we need to tell people. You're also on Patreon,

522
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 1: which I is the only Patreon I belong to because

523
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: it's the only one I get real value. I subscribe

524
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 1: to the Free Press, but I get real value from

525
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: your Patreon. How do people find that? Just Patreon and

526
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 1: Aviv Retti.

527
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 4: Gore yeah, or ask Aviv anything on Patreon. Thanks so

528
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 4: much for the plug. I really appreciate it.

529
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: Well, it's only five bucks a month and it's really

530
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 1: very much worth it. Like Dan Senor's special edition as well,

531
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: I've gone into funnels silos from my news to go deep.

532
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: Have you before I go any further? What do you

533
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: make of what I think is a hinge moment in Iran,

534
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 1: especially in light of what President Trump posted this morning.

535
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 4: At this very moment, there are reports that phone lines

536
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 4: can now call out of Iran again. Some of the

537
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: digital blackouts appears to be lifting or was broken, or

538
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 4: maybe hackers did it. We don't quite know. There was

539
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 4: a news from CBS News that they got initial reports

540
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 4: that the report's about twelve thousand dead in the last

541
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 4: just two three days that Iran International ran. It might

542
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 4: be much higher than that. People in Iran are talking

543
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 4: about something very big, very dramatic. These are, you know,

544
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,199
Speaker 4: early days. We don't have a lot of information. The

545
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 4: whole country taken off the internet, but the regime crackdown

546
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,679
Speaker 4: has gotten lethal. The regime itself has admitted two thousand dead.

547
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 4: So everything is escalating. All the gloves are off, the

548
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 4: regime is terrified, and into that context that those signals

549
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 4: that we can get out of Iran. President Trump's statement

550
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 4: probably echoes very very loudly what he said on your

551
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 4: podcast what was it three days ago, where he just said,

552
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 4: you know, they know that a lot of that they're

553
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 4: going to pay a price, and he urged people to

554
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 4: take the names of officers and officials involved in the repression.

555
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 4: That's actually really fascinating because we've already seen that. You know,

556
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 4: there was this what they called a Tianamen Square moment

557
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 4: where one protester was sitting down on the street in

558
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 4: front of the police trying to clear out the protests,

559
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 4: and that protester would go on to get beaten by

560
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 4: those cops. And what's really fascinating is within a few

561
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 4: hours the names of the of the agents of the

562
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 4: regime who beat the protester were publicized on Iranian internet.

563
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 4: And so it's a new day, it's a new moments.

564
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 4: Are no longer willing to play the regimes game in huge,

565
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 4: huge numbers. We don't yet know how it's going to go.

566
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 4: It's important to say twenty percent of this country is

567
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 4: deeply Islamist and believes in the regimes ideology and will

568
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 4: die for the regime. We not literally twice on the

569
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 4: population will die, but twenty percent of the poplation will fight.

570
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 4: And the entire besieged militia is hundreds of thousands of people,

571
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 4: with many more who could volunteer. So it's it's almost

572
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 4: a kind of mini civil war when you have a

573
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 4: revolution against this regime. But nevertheless, it has never gone

574
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 4: this far, and the rage and the lack of any

575
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 4: willingness to tolerate the regime pretending like everything's okay or

576
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,959
Speaker 4: can never go back to normal, that's all new, and

577
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 4: so it is a it is a new moment. It

578
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 4: could fail, but it's never gone this far before.

579
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: So Aviv I had done an entire outline because we

580
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: schedule this six weeks two months in advance to get

581
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: ahold of the vvs in demand everywhere in the world,

582
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 1: and so I'm happy to talk to him every month

583
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: or so. And we scheduled this weeks ago, and I

584
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,199
Speaker 1: have a whole long list of questions are going to

585
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 1: get pushed to the back about the Hari Dam and

586
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 1: the legal legal reform and the elections. That's the next time.

587
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: This just came up. Not long ago. You had Barry

588
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 1: Strauss on your program. He wrote the new book last year,

589
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,479
Speaker 1: Jews Versus Rome, fascinating book. I had listened to it

590
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: on tape after I listened to your interview, I went

591
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: back and bought it because the names are hard to

592
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: get when you're listening. I mean, I know Pompey the Great,

593
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: and I get Tiberius, and I know this pro Consul

594
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: and Cestius and all these very things, but I need

595
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: to get the chronology in black and white. So I

596
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: really want to kind of do the same thing with

597
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: you throughout that book, which is the History of the

598
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 1: Great Revolt sixty six eighty to seventy and of the

599
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: Diasper revolt and of the bar Kobat revolt in about

600
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty eighty. I want to go back then,

601
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: because Iran is all through that book under the name

602
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: of Parthia, and so Iran modern day Iran was part

603
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: of ancient part empire, the only empire that kind of

604
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: got to a standoff with Rome prior to the revolution

605
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy nine. How did Israel and Iran get along?

606
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 4: They were quite good friends. They were I don't want

607
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 4: to exaggerate it. They weren't, you know, Bosom buddies, but

608
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 4: they had a real relationship and alliance. They shared enemies.

609
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 4: Shared enemies is a very powerful incentive in the Middle

610
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 4: East to be close. And more than that, the Iran

611
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 4: of the Shah, okay, the Shah had a repressive regime.

612
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 4: It was a deeply problematic regime.

613
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 5: It killed people. It was you know, it was.

614
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 4: Nothing compared to what the Ayatolas would go on and

615
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 4: build after the revolution to topple the Shah. But nevertheless,

616
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 4: the Shaw was not a democrat. But the Iran of

617
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 4: the Shah was a modern country. It was a country

618
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 4: where women walked around in you know, with their hair

619
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 4: out and universities were ill universities and one of the

620
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 4: tragedies of the last forty seven years of Aetola's rule,

621
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 4: and there are many tragedies. Iran is a gutted country.

622
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 4: It's an economy in ruins. It doesn't have electricity, it

623
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 4: doesn't have you know, it's one of the wealthiest in

624
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,239
Speaker 4: terms of hydrocarbon reserves countries on Earth, and people live

625
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 4: with less electricity than in most of much of the

626
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 4: Third World. I mean, it's just it's it's a country

627
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 4: that has been demolished by this region and the Iran

628
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 4: before this region of the shop was a country that

629
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 4: was modernizing with modern universities and modern you know, in

630
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 4: modern economy and was looking for ways to have investment

631
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 4: and development. Incidentally, last time you interviewed President President Trump

632
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 4: noted that he had had friends back in the seventies

633
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 4: who were real estate developers in New York who were

634
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 4: looking at Iran to build and had built buildings in Iran,

635
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 4: and investing in Iran was a smart move because of

636
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 4: those hydrocarbon reserves, because it was an economy that could

637
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 4: have turned the place into you know, some mix of

638
00:30:58,800 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

639
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 5: There's nothing preventing.

640
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 4: That from happening, except that the Islamist section of Iranian

641
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 4: society took over the country and ruined it. Israel saw

642
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 4: a friend. Israel saw a modern nation, and Israel saw

643
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 4: basically just the modern commercial world that everybody wants to

644
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 4: live in. You know, there's a world that's not taken

645
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 4: over by crazy ideologues demolishing their own country just to

646
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 4: retain power. So Iran was that it was a friend.

647
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 4: It was what the Middle East should always have been.

648
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 4: It would have been but for something it could be.

649
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 1: When you say it could have been a mix of

650
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 1: Turkey and Saudi Arabia, I think it could have been

651
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 1: another Israel, because they had the wealth, and they had

652
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 1: the university and an tremendous base in nineteen seventy nine

653
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 1: of an educated elite who could have been at the

654
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: vanguard of the technology revolution in the last fifty years. Instead,

655
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: they went backwards. And you're probably not old enough to

656
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: remember this, but I remember it well. In nineteen seventy nine,

657
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: I was working for then exiled President Nixon and Clementy

658
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: and Ray Price, and I and he would sit on

659
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: a couch and watch this, and the whole world thought

660
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: Harmione was was going to be a good force. Did

661
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: the Israelis get tricked by that too? The whole world

662
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 1: not Nixon. Nixon said there's a disaster, But did Israel

663
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: think Hamione would bring anything better than the Shaw?

664
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 4: I can't speak for every analyst, and uh, you know,

665
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 4: it's a big country with a lot of people who

666
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:27,959
Speaker 4: have very strong views and not necessarily a lot of knowledge, So,

667
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 4: you know, speaking as a media pundit, right, No, Fraserelis

668
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 4: was a disaster, and it was very clearly a disaster.

669
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 4: And in fact, Kamenei made a point of building his

670
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 4: coalition with the communists and building his coalition with the

671
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 4: third world as we might call them today, with all

672
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 4: of these anti Western powers that were secular, that were

673
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 4: progressive in Iran. I'm not speaking now about college campuses

674
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 4: in America. I'm talking about you know, Iran in the seventies.

675
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 4: He actually built his coalition that was able to topple

676
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 4: the Shaw with these other powers. One of the main

677
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 4: things that he shared of all the topics on Earth,

678
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 4: they didn't agree on religion, they didn't agree on the economy,

679
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 4: they didn't agree on who should actually run the place.

680
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 4: After the revolution, they all agreed that the Jews of

681
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 4: Israel were in evil crime against history and had to

682
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 4: be removed, whether for progressive, secular for Islamic reasons.

683
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 1: So this was AA. I gotta take a break and

684
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 1: go off air, and I'll be right back after the break.

685
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Hugh Hewitt Show on the Salem

686
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: Radio Network, watching it on the Salem News Channel, and

687
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 1: this will be part of the podcast today as well.

688
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: Don't go anywhere, Stay tuned. Have Viv ready. Gore can

689
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: be followed on x at Aviv retted Gore. He is

690
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: with the Free Press, he is with senior analysts at

691
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 1: the Times of Israel. His patreon asked Aviv Anything, Stay

692
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: tuned to the UIT show. Welcome back to America. I'm

693
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: Hugh Hewett. I guess there's Aviv rehtted Gore. You can

694
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 1: find ask Aviv Anywhere, Ask Aviv Anything Anywhere on the

695
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 1: podcast World Ask Aviv Anything, Aviv. The reason I brought

696
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 1: up in the first segment Barry Strauss is it seems

697
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 1: to me that an ancient civilization like Persia, which was

698
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: part of the Parthian Empire, has beneath that, just beneath

699
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: the surface of this Islamist radicalism, extremism. Another civilization used

700
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 1: to study history. Israel's an ancient civilization. Do they lay

701
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,439
Speaker 1: dormant forever or is there a reason to give hope

702
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 1: that maybe the eighty percent of Iranians who want to

703
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: connect with their Persian roots can overwhelm the regime.

704
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 4: This is an extraordinary nation and it has faced really

705
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,399
Speaker 4: a gutting kind of brain drain.

706
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 5: Probably hundreds of.

707
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 4: Thousands, I mean hundreds of thousands of scholars and scientists

708
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 4: and mathematicians and are contributing to every country in the

709
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 4: world except Iran because they can't do their work and.

710
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 6: You're on under this region.

711
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 4: It is an extraordinary civilization, It is ancient. It has

712
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 4: one of the one of the cynical element regime is

713
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 4: that every time there's a protest, every time there's one

714
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 4: of these, you know, we're uprisings against the regime, and

715
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 4: it feels a little threatened. It starts to talk about

716
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 4: Persian history, about the Persian civilization, about the great ancient

717
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 4: Iranian people, and as soon as everything stabilizes. This is

718
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 4: something that Roy, an Iranian American writer said beautifully as

719
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 4: soon as the regime stabilizes, it goes back to being

720
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 4: Islamist and in part having this ideology of erasing that

721
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 4: Iranian past in favor of this puritanical Islam. So there

722
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 4: is absolutely a cultural contest, a culture war, but a

723
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 4: deeper sense, not not culture war, you know, Republicans democrats

724
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 4: like an ordinary Western culture war in a democracy. There's

725
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 4: a culture war between the two cultures of Iran, the

726
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 4: Islamic Persians, you know, pushed by Ramenei, not sort of

727
00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 4: a peaceful ordinary Islam, but this militant revolution tionary on

728
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 4: the march, demolishing countries, version and everything that Iran and Persia,

729
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 4: and you mentioned Aparthi as you said, all this ancient

730
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 4: story of this ancient storied people who are extraordinarily talented

731
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 4: and extraordinarily wise, I should say, Persian Jews led Iran

732
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 4: in the vast, vast majority, less than twenty percent remains

733
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 4: in the country, and they're under constant regime surveillance, and

734
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 4: they can't leave the country without forfeiting their every last asset.

735
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 4: And even then eighty percent shows to leave. And they

736
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 4: are a huge, you know, strong, wealthy, successful community both

737
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 4: in Israel, in California, anywhere where they step. So yeah,

738
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 4: this is an absolutely extra you'd start measuring finding metrics

739
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 4: of achievement of Iranians. It's amazing, and their country is

740
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 4: totally gutted and their economy looks like, you know, I

741
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 4: don't know what the bottom billion of this world. I mean,

742
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,320
Speaker 4: you know the failures of the UN Human Development Reports,

743
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 4: and there's no reason.

744
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 5: For it except this regime.

745
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 1: And by the way, go ahead, go ahead of you.

746
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 1: You're gonna say, by.

747
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 4: The way, Malay in that sense where you had one

748
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:18,399
Speaker 4: of the wealthiest countries of South America, a successful democratic

749
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 4: and then a bad ideology takes over and a third

750
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 4: of the country turns into refugees and people can't eat.

751
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 4: And that's the story. That's the story of this regime.

752
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 4: People should look up the literal water shortages that have

753
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 4: gutted Iranian agriculture. They should look up, you know, the

754
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 4: scale of the hydrocarbon reserves. They should look up the

755
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 4: incompetence the Twelve Day War, you know, with President Trump's

756
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 4: decision to help the Israelis with been donning hammer because

757
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 4: he has said for literally two decades, Iran can't get

758
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 4: a bomb. All of that stuff is what everyone's talked about.

759
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 4: But just for a second, let's take a step back

760
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,360
Speaker 4: and just look at Iran. This regime for forty seven

761
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 4: years has told its people they need to sit quiet

762
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 4: and suffer because the regime is doing some great important

763
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 4: thing for Islam.

764
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 5: What is that great important thing?

765
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 4: Preparing the destruction of Zionism. Never mind if that's a

766
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,280
Speaker 4: good or bad thing. I happen to like my people

767
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,360
Speaker 4: in my country and my nation and my children. But

768
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 4: even if you don't like my people, forty seven years

769
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,760
Speaker 4: of preparation, and Israel cleaned their clock in twelve days,

770
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 4: and Irani in general used to be able to walk

771
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 4: around the streets of Tehran and command some respect. And

772
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 4: Irani in general, who walks the streets of Tehran today

773
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:31,399
Speaker 4: didn't bother.

774
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 5: Killing is the only reason he's alive.

775
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 4: If you're in the IRGC, so's there's just why again,

776
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 4: leave the morality aside, just look at the competence.

777
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 1: This reason you also mentioned in your first in the

778
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 1: first segment we talked about, you mentioned the fact that

779
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: they have been brutalized by their currency collapse. I think

780
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: one of the reasons that this is a hinge moment

781
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: is the real is worthless. So everybody's life savings, including

782
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 1: those of the besiege, those of the IRGC, everyone except

783
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: the very top elite who managed to turn it into

784
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 1: gold or jewels, they've been wiped out in the last

785
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 1: six months or since operation of Midnight Hammer and the

786
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 1: Israeli Twelve Day War. Do you think that is a

787
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 1: driver here? Because, by the way, coverage of Iran in

788
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 1: the United States is awful. I have to go to

789
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: the Times of Israel to learn anything about what's going

790
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 1: on in Iran because the American press doesn't care or

791
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: doesn't have the expertise. So do you think that the

792
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,280
Speaker 1: collapse of the we all gives this one more energy

793
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 1: than the Women's movement in twenty two where the Green

794
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 1: movement in two thousand and nine.

795
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 4: Absolutely, We've already had revolutions of protests, uprisings of the

796
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 4: students of the liberal activists. We've seen that and they

797
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 4: were easily crushed. Didn't help the President Obama wouldn't support them.

798
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 5: And then we saw the Woman Life I.

799
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: Forget freedom exactly, Women Freedom Life.

800
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 4: The Life movement, which was a whole new thing because

801
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 4: it was specifically about the religious restrictions and about the

802
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 4: religious regime and ever since that, by the way, it

803
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 4: was crushed, and it was crushed brutally. Twenty thousand people

804
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 4: were arrested and thrown in prison. But the regime has

805
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 4: started to get a little more lax in enforcing the

806
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,359
Speaker 4: hijab rules, for example, and so we know that they

807
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 4: got scared. Now we're seeing something completely different. Over the

808
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,919
Speaker 4: last year and even more than a year, You've had

809
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 4: these because you have these electricity shortages, because you had

810
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 4: these running water shortages. You've had different groups protesting. You

811
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:41,280
Speaker 4: had the truckers you protesting. You had agriculturalists, of farmers

812
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 4: and various kinds of people who work in agriculture starting

813
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 4: to mount serious protests. You have a lot of disquiet

814
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 4: among the Arabs in the south. You have a lot

815
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 4: of movement in all kinds of different sections. And then

816
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 4: the reality plunges and just implodes, and then you get

817
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 4: the Bazaris. The bizarre is the small shopkeepers or spread

818
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 4: up you know, significant importers, business people of Iran, the

819
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 4: people on whom the economy stands, the people the regime

820
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:07,760
Speaker 4: has to keep happy.

821
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 5: They didn't join this uprising.

822
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 7: Are this uprising?

823
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 5: Everybody else?

824
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:18,800
Speaker 4: The students, the farmers, everybody joined them. So we suddenly

825
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 4: have a cross section of Iranian society of people who

826
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 4: have never protested, wouldn't have protested, but they can't live anymore.

827
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,240
Speaker 4: This regime has gutted everything. And one of the points

828
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 4: that I made before about the currency that we all

829
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 4: collapsed if you're not.

830
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 5: Close to the regime. If you are close to the regime, the.

831
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 4: Government actually enforces a separate currency exchange rate for you,

832
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 4: so you can afford to you know, live feed your family,

833
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 4: buy iPhones. Everyone else in the country can't afford water

834
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 4: and electricity. And so this regime has driven more and

835
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 4: more sections of Iranian society to rise up against it.

836
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 4: And this might be that Tippic it might not, but

837
00:41:58,719 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 4: it might.

838
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: Be that it reminds me of Poland in eighty five,

839
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: and then the East Block in eighty seven to eighty nine,

840
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 1: and then the Soviet Union in eighty nine to ninety one.

841
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 1: They're all gone. Now. I'll be right back with Aviv

842
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 1: Rhttig Gore. Followhim on ax at Haviv Retty Gore, Ask

843
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 1: Aviv anything is on any podcast network and a Patreon,

844
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,359
Speaker 1: Stay tuned on t quit. Welcome back to America. I'm

845
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: Hugh Hewitt with Aviv Rehttig Gore. Whether you're listening in

846
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 1: your car on the Salem Radio Network, are affiliates watching

847
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: on the Sale News channel or catching up on the podcast.

848
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: Aviv's podcast is Ask Kaviv Anything. Israel got ten million people,

849
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 1: Iran's got ninety million people. On October the seventh, Israel

850
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 1: suffered twelve hundred murders, and the numbers coming out of

851
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 1: Iran are not yet well. I guess the high estimates

852
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 1: would be roughly proportional. The high estimates are twelve thousand

853
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,720
Speaker 1: that have been phoned into CBS News have been butchered

854
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 1: by the mullas. What kind of a effect do you

855
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,399
Speaker 1: think that will have? That kind of a masker because

856
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: you've lived it, you've lived it for two and a

857
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 1: half years. What do you think the average Iranian emotional

858
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,399
Speaker 1: state is? Because everyone's going to know someone when twelve

859
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: thousand people get mowed down.

860
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, let me just say Iranians have suffered a lot

861
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 4: more than Israelis.

862
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 5: My own government didn't do.

863
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 4: It to me, and I don't live in an oppressive state,

864
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:31,760
Speaker 4: and I you know, the ordinary run ninety two million

865
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:36,320
Speaker 4: people in iran don't have a vote and don't decide

866
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 4: the most fundamental things and have been essentially forced to

867
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:42,399
Speaker 4: live in poverty for the regimes revolution, and so this

868
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:46,720
Speaker 4: regime massacring people is a whole it's a whole different story.

869
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 4: You know, if the United States government, because of some

870
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 4: cultural or Vietnam protests, eat somebody, then all of America

871
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:58,280
Speaker 4: talks about it. And it's different from a brutal, oppressive,

872
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 4: five decade regime that forces women to cover their hair

873
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 4: everywhere suddenly murdering many, many thousands of people who are

874
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 4: demanding things like the right to devote. So Iranians are

875
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 4: suffering profoundly. Their families are struggling literally to get by

876
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 4: to eat, and this regime is willing to murder huge

877
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 4: swaths of its people. One really dangerous statement came out

878
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 4: of Kamuna himself, who said, we lost hundreds of thousands

879
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 4: of people to make the revolution happen. He's not talking

880
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,720
Speaker 4: about the revolution the top of the Shah. He's probably,

881
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 4: I don't know what, talking about the Irani rock board.

882
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I thought.

883
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,279
Speaker 4: We're willing to kill hundreds of thousands to that's the

884
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 4: bar for protecting this revolution. He's threatening to kill in

885
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 4: the six figures. And that's the thing that everybody has

886
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 4: to watch out for right now. Now this regime suddenly

887
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 4: ups the ante. You don't shut off the entire country's

888
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 4: internet if you're not trying to hide something.

889
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 1: Now, if he summons up the Iraq Iran War. I

890
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 1: read a book by a fellow by name Ashan Ostovar

891
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 1: called Vanguard of the Imam, and he said that their strength,

892
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 1: the regime strength, was rooted in the veterans of that war,

893
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 1: the Iraq Iran War, which ran for ten years, and

894
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: about which I think Donald RUMs felt famously said, can't

895
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 1: they both lose? But the question that's that generation of veterans,

896
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 1: they're dead or they're very old men. Now do they

897
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 1: still have a grip on the imagination of the country.

898
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 4: They have nothing. They have nothing, They have no grip.

899
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,880
Speaker 4: There's that again. There's a twenty percent of Iran's population.

900
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 4: You hear this from academics in the West, from Iranians.

901
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 4: You hear this from Israeli intelligence, which, as we learned

902
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 4: back in June, have a pretty good sense of what's

903
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 4: happening in Iran. There is twenty percent of the Iranian

904
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:51,319
Speaker 4: population that is utterly totally committed to this regime. Ideologically,

905
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 4: it's having the same economic troubles everybody else is having.

906
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,799
Speaker 4: We're not seeing them come out quite in the same

907
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 4: numbers in the past, even though the danger is greater.

908
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 4: I don't know what that means. I don't know if

909
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 4: that just means that they're gonna come out next week.

910
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 4: I don't know what that means, you know, I don't

911
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 4: know to say. Everything is moving and we're getting these

912
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 4: very sort of minor, small signals, and we're trying to

913
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 4: interpret the larger picture. But the eighty percent who aren't

914
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 4: in that deep Islam is true believer section of Iranian

915
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 4: society have no respect for this regime at all and

916
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 4: view this regime correctly as just a mafia.

917
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 5: It's just a mafia.

918
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 4: There's no They don't even believe in the things that

919
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 4: they say. You know, the regime generals their families. More

920
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 4: and more of their families live abroad, live in the

921
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,439
Speaker 4: United States, live in Britain, live in places where they

922
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 4: don't have to suffer with the people that their own

923
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 4: family members in the IRGC are forcing to suffer. And

924
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 4: so there is this deep disconnect this stuff makes its

925
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 4: way through Iranian social media. Everybody knows that they're a

926
00:46:56,520 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 4: mafia that pretends to be a religious movement. It hasn't

927
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 4: been a religious movement for decades. And that's basically the

928
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:03,839
Speaker 4: story here.

929
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:07,759
Speaker 1: So I would encourage everyone to go over to the

930
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 1: Commentary podcast because Eli Lake was the guest on Commentary

931
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 1: Podcast today and he made the point Aviv just avered to,

932
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: which is that a lot of the Iranian elite are abroad,

933
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: their children are abroad, and that one of the things

934
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 1: the United States and England and other people ought to

935
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,800
Speaker 1: consider is sending them home, is saying, you've got to

936
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 1: go live with the disaster that is the country that

937
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 1: your parents have made, and they've sent you to school.

938
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 1: And he mentioned that the daughter of the Iranian Prime Minister.

939
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 1: I think that's what he said, or the Iranian President

940
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 1: is a nursing student at Emery. Now, don't give her

941
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 1: a hard time. It's not her fault what her parents

942
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 1: have built and her father has built. But Aviv makes

943
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: an important point when we come back Israel's role in

944
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:56,439
Speaker 1: whatever the United States is going to come up with,

945
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 1: which got it could be unfolding tonight. We don't know

946
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 1: could be underway right now in America. I'm here, Welcome

947
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 1: back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett with Aviv Reddy Gore.

948
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 1: I do believe we're at one of those hinge moments

949
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 1: in history where what happened in Iran's going to drive

950
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 1: a lot of the next thirty to fifty years. Aviv.

951
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 1: I've got Bernard Lewis books by the shelf load. I've

952
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: read about The Looming Tower by Lawrence Right. You and

953
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 1: I have talked about Hamas and Wahabism and radical Sunni Islam,

954
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 1: radical Shia Islam. I don't get at all other than

955
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:32,359
Speaker 1: they were waiting for the hidden in mom to come

956
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: out of the well. Why in the world do they

957
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: support Hamas and why are the Jews so central to

958
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,240
Speaker 1: their theology? Do you have any idea?

959
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 4: It's extraordinary, It's an extraordinary thing in Sunni Islam. I

960
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 4: any Muslims listening to us will know this, or if

961
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 4: they don't, they should look it up because they should

962
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 4: know this, and anyone else please fact check it. In

963
00:48:56,120 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 4: Sunni Islam, the most widespread tradition is that alaksa on

964
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 4: the which translates to the thing at the edge in

965
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 4: Hebrew Kotse the place Muhammad goes to at the end

966
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 4: of his life and sends to Heaven.

967
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 5: That place is Jerusalem.

968
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,800
Speaker 4: That is a widespread sunny tradition, not the only sunny tradition,

969
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 4: but nonetheless wise in Shia Islam, Alaksa is not in Jerusalem.

970
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 5: It is simply not. There is no Shia tradition of that.

971
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 5: It is in Iraq.

972
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 4: And the whole idea that this regime has created has

973
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 4: has sort of latched onto this sunny vision. It's an

974
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 4: attempt to create a political argument for Iranian leadership of

975
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 4: the Muslim world. And Iran's leadership also saw its its

976
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 4: own attempt to destroy Israel and building out these proxies

977
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 4: with tens of billions of dollars over forty years that

978
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 4: Iran's Iranians didn't have. But the spending on kesbealand the

979
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 4: proxies in Iraq and Syria, and the Huthis of Yemen

980
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,800
Speaker 4: and every en Kamas and huge spending on Kamas, hundreds

981
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 4: of millions of dollars at least, all of this investment

982
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 4: in the proxy system to destroy Israel was essentially a

983
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 4: Shia argument in the Muslim world. You Sunnis have failed

984
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 4: to destroy Israel for a century. You have, you know,

985
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 4: embarrassed Islam. In that sense, we will succeed and that

986
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 4: will be evidence that Shia Islam is correct. That's the

987
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,959
Speaker 4: kind of stuff you actually get when you drill down

988
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 4: into it, when you actually listen to an interview on

989
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 4: Al Jazeera or whatever with an Iranian Ayatola, and you

990
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 4: actually try and get into why do you want to

991
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 4: destroy us? I'm not saying why you don't like his

992
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 4: El you don't like Israel?

993
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 1: You know what?

994
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,319
Speaker 4: You cannot like France too? Who cares like not? Why

995
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 4: don't you like Israel? Why are you invested to the

996
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 4: point of gutting your own economy with this obsession of

997
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 4: the destruction of a country you have no border with

998
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 4: and no interests in.

999
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 7: What is that?

1000
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:51,320
Speaker 4: And you very quickly discover it isn't actually Shia Islam.

1001
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 4: It is Islam. It's an Islamic veneer on an imperialist

1002
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,760
Speaker 4: project that's meant to force the Sunnis to rally behind

1003
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:01,760
Speaker 4: the Iranians.

1004
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:02,720
Speaker 3: That's it.

1005
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 4: It's a regional control. There's someone that developed back in

1006
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 4: the seventies and sixties.

1007
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 1: Oh that makes you just gave me at least a

1008
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 1: narrative to understand, because I can go find a Sunni

1009
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 1: extremists imm preaching on the internet the destruction of Israel

1010
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 1: in about ten minutes, and it's whether it's Isis or

1011
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 1: whether it is Al Qaido, whether it's any of their

1012
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 1: offshoot groups around the world, But I can't find Shia

1013
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 1: im Mom's. They're supposed to be almost as peaceful as

1014
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 1: another branch of Islam, the third branch which is eluding

1015
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:42,719
Speaker 1: me right now, the one that's very, very peaceful. When

1016
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 1: did that? Why don't we know that? Is there no

1017
00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:52,280
Speaker 1: effort to expose what the Shia pretenders are that Israel

1018
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: and the United States are undertaking. Is there any effort

1019
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 1: to put that message out there to do legitimize the regime?

1020
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 4: Sheia have in the Muslim world a long tradition of

1021
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 4: being oppressed by the Sunnis, and so the Shia have

1022
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 4: developed a much less It's weird for me to, like,

1023
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 4: you know, fly the flag of the Shia right now.

1024
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:21,840
Speaker 4: I mean, the greatest force trying to annihilate my people

1025
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 4: at this moment is a Shia political force. But nevertheless,

1026
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 4: the Shia have been less aggressive, less conquering, belligerent, you know,

1027
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 4: colonialist and imperialists than Sunni's overall over fourteenth centuries. I'm

1028
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 4: not singling out any particular people or group or time,

1029
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,759
Speaker 4: but in general, the Shia have been the oppressed and

1030
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 4: are much more, much less committed to a kind of

1031
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 4: conquering vision of Islam than the Sunnis. So the Muslim

1032
00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 4: Brotherhood vision of the takeover, of getting back to the

1033
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 4: takeover of the world, that's.

1034
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,839
Speaker 5: A Sunny project and doesn't really make sense.

1035
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:59,560
Speaker 4: And she is at until really Kromieni and Romiani who

1036
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 4: found it, this Iranian version of Sheism, this political Sheism.

1037
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,720
Speaker 4: So just in general, if you go to the Shia

1038
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 4: of Lebanon, until they were radicalized by vast Iranian money

1039
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:15,719
Speaker 4: through chrisbela Iranian shea excuse me, Lebanese Shia were a

1040
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 4: quiet group. They were not on the warpath. They did

1041
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 4: not conduct you know, conquest and massacres. It's similar for

1042
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 4: the Alo whites of Syria who are sort.

1043
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:27,799
Speaker 1: Of thinking of the Sufis. I couldn't. I couldn't come

1044
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 1: up with the name of the Sufis. They're the very

1045
00:53:30,600 --> 00:53:34,720
Speaker 1: pacifist branch of Islam. If I am remembering my Lewis correctly,

1046
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 1: But Shia was not was not Wahabist.

1047
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, Shia have never been Wahabists.

1048
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:47,319
Speaker 4: All the Wahabism, all of the Muslim Brotherhood stuff, all

1049
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 4: the stuff you get out of you know, the al

1050
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 4: Qaeda stuff, the the Saib and all of that stuff

1051
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 4: all happened in Sunnism. All this radicalizing of Islam in

1052
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,839
Speaker 4: the modern age happened in Sundism, and the Shia were

1053
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 4: very late to the game. And Komeni basically brought in

1054
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 4: a lot of these ideas and a lot of these

1055
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,359
Speaker 4: ways of thinking and talking and gave it as Shia

1056
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 4: vanir and she of vocabulary. But he basically did that

1057
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 4: as a power play to take over Iran.

1058
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 3: That was the idea.

1059
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 4: It's it's hard to understand this regime in Iran as

1060
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:24,319
Speaker 4: a religious movement just because it refuses to act as one.

1061
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:28,239
Speaker 4: It really is just about oppression and power. And when

1062
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 4: you actually go to meet the Shia and talk to

1063
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 4: Shia in Iraq, for example, you get a very ambiguous

1064
00:54:35,680 --> 00:54:38,480
Speaker 4: kind of relationship with this Sheism of Iran as this

1065
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:42,239
Speaker 4: thing that isn't what Sheism always was. Even by the way,

1066
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 4: if Iran will support them in their great internal sectarian

1067
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 4: wars in Iraq against the Sunnis and the brutality of

1068
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:50,840
Speaker 4: the Sunnis during Saddam's time and all of that. You

1069
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 4: can sometimes get an appreciation for this ally in Shia Iran,

1070
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 4: but you still don't see an Iraqi Shia in Lebaneshia,

1071
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 4: in Syrian Shia, and frankly, Tilda Hui's in Yemenishia. You

1072
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:06,240
Speaker 4: don't see that kind of aggression that the Iranians introduced

1073
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 4: into Shia politics. And so the Iranians took over and

1074
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:12,319
Speaker 4: kind of reframed Shia politics in the Middle East in

1075
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:16,840
Speaker 4: a way that has demolished frankly, every Shia polity or

1076
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:19,279
Speaker 4: every polity does a large population of Shia Iran has

1077
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 4: been a disastrous curse on the Shia Sunnez of the

1078
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 4: Arab world and Persia itself.

1079
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:28,560
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk to Aviv a little bit off air.

1080
00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:32,319
Speaker 1: I'll add it to the podcast today, but please don't

1081
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 1: go anywhere, stay on the radio station or on the

1082
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:35,799
Speaker 1: television station.

1083
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 2: But I'll add the last.

1084
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:38,759
Speaker 1: Bit of the lea to the podcast right back on

1085
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 1: the podcast Down with Aviv, Reddy Gore and Avivan Commentary Today,

1086
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 1: John pod Hoortz Exit question was on a scale after

1087
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 1: President Trump put up his post this morning, on a

1088
00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:50,759
Speaker 1: scale of one to ten, what do you think the

1089
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 1: United States will do? With one being nothing and ten

1090
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 1: being anything necessary to Maduro Hamini go in and grab

1091
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:02,439
Speaker 1: him and kill the him and get them and four

1092
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 1: out of five people set a six with some fireworks

1093
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 1: spectacular that we can see. John Potterwartz said at eight

1094
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 1: he thought we're going all in because they're as weak

1095
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:14,360
Speaker 1: as they've ever been. But it occurred to me, as

1096
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,920
Speaker 1: I listened to the commentary podcast and Eli Lake knows

1097
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 1: his Iran history, it occurs to me that really depends

1098
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 1: upon the people of Iran and how they react of

1099
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 1: being shot down. I mean, it really is merciless. So

1100
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 1: we saw in Israel on ten to seven the Israelis

1101
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,399
Speaker 1: fight back with their bare hands, rocks and whatever they could.

1102
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 1: They kept throwing grenades out of their bomb shelters, and

1103
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 1: then they went to war, and the war's not over yet.

1104
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:39,240
Speaker 1: What do you think the average Iranian in the eighty

1105
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:42,240
Speaker 1: percent does? Now, I'm asking you to be a prophet,

1106
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 1: and I know it's unfair, but you've studied what happens

1107
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 1: when people are they have no hope. They have no money,

1108
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:49,920
Speaker 1: they have no water, what do they do?

1109
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 4: This regime has done nothing for forty seven years. The

1110
00:56:56,239 --> 00:57:01,120
Speaker 4: demolished other power center in Iran with the Communists, and

1111
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:05,680
Speaker 4: after the Iran Iraq War, it massacred the communists. It

1112
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 4: has has systematically gone through Iranian society and degraded and

1113
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:11,839
Speaker 4: demolished anyone who could replace them, so that even if

1114
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 4: a revolution does come, there's nobody to lead it and

1115
00:57:14,680 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 4: there's no power center, single power center, that can actually

1116
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 4: see it through. That's what makes this moment so dangerous

1117
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 4: to the regime. That the Bazaris are such a power.

1118
00:57:22,280 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 4: If the interests of the basic you know, economic backbone

1119
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 4: of the capital and of the major cities of Iran

1120
00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 4: are the uprising, then the Iranian regime has a problem

1121
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 4: because there is a kind of power base. It still

1122
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 4: doesn't have a clear leadership.

1123
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 5: It's still not.

1124
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 4: Clear who actually makes the decision steps in. This regime

1125
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 4: has a lot of bodies it's willing to go through.

1126
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 4: I mean in the hundreds of thousands, as we said,

1127
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 4: before it falls. So I would say two things. One,

1128
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 4: it looks like Iranians don't think anything will ever get better.

1129
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:57,600
Speaker 4: It looks like the regime has managed to convince most

1130
00:57:57,680 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 4: Iranians of that, and that it's very dangerous for the

1131
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 4: regime because people have to have a reason, they have

1132
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 4: to have something to lose. It doesn't look like they

1133
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:08,439
Speaker 4: think that they have something to lose. And I'll say

1134
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:11,440
Speaker 4: a huge compliment to President Trump in that regard. I

1135
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 4: have no idea what President Trump is going to do.

1136
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:18,280
Speaker 4: He bombed Iran while pretending to be considering not bombing

1137
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:24,880
Speaker 4: Iran by lighting the planes. Everybody in Venezuela didn't predict it.

1138
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:26,920
Speaker 4: Not only didn't predict it, the signals were going in

1139
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 4: all different directions in the last three days, President and

1140
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 4: Trump has said he's going to negotiation and also not

1141
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 4: going to negotiation. That is exactly how you should behave

1142
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 4: if you're about to demolish something, if you're about to

1143
00:58:37,440 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 4: take them down, and also just if you're terrifying them

1144
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 4: into overreacting, which itself could be the destabilizing factor that

1145
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 4: throws them out of power. So President Trump, inasmuch as

1146
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 4: an American president can affect this, and there's quite a

1147
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:53,560
Speaker 4: bit he can do, but you know, it's not his decision.

1148
00:58:53,600 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 4: In the end, He's not the factor. But he's basically

1149
00:58:57,000 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 4: done everything right so far, and saying both sides of

1150
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 4: the thing. Saying something and then the opposite thing is

1151
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 4: a fantastic strategy with this regime, especially after Maduro, especially

1152
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 4: after Midnight Hammer.

1153
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 5: So I think.

1154
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:12,400
Speaker 4: America is in the right place, basically positioned to help

1155
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 4: without being the leadership of this thing. The Iranian people

1156
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:18,560
Speaker 4: will bleed a lot more before this regime dies. If

1157
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 4: this is suppressed, they'll be a bigger and worse one

1158
00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:23,720
Speaker 4: because there's nothing in this regime that's capable of turning

1159
00:59:23,720 --> 00:59:26,000
Speaker 4: Iran around and setting it on a better path.

1160
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:30,760
Speaker 1: So very last question, we saw what the IDF and

1161
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:34,000
Speaker 1: Mosad can do. Now, I'm not one of those Americans

1162
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:38,160
Speaker 1: that think Masad is thirty stories tall, but I was

1163
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:42,160
Speaker 1: pretty impressed by the Beeper operation and by the takeout

1164
00:59:42,400 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 1: of the people in Cutter and the people in Tehran. Obviously,

1165
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:50,280
Speaker 1: Israel has got operatives on the ground in Iran, but

1166
00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 1: there aren't enough Israelis. Even if they do to actually

1167
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 1: take them out. Do you think they will follow the

1168
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:59,440
Speaker 1: American lead here act independent of it? And the key question,

1169
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 1: if Iran gets scared, they're going to throw ballistic missiles

1170
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 1: at your country. That's what they did. They've done that

1171
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:09,480
Speaker 1: four times now, once against America and three times against you.

1172
01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 1: What do you think Israel's reaction. I don't think I

1173
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:15,520
Speaker 1: personally don't think Israel will hold back this time. What

1174
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:16,480
Speaker 1: do you think.

1175
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 4: If Iroan forces, you know, revisiting of the Twelve Day War,

1176
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:27,360
Speaker 4: I don't think Israel will be able to contain. I

1177
01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 4: think I think this will be the end. I think,

1178
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 4: first of all, Ron will Be will need there to

1179
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 4: be a serious war with Israel as a distraction, as

1180
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:39,680
Speaker 4: an excuse to crack down more viciously internally, as a

1181
01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:42,160
Speaker 4: stabilizing force, and I think the Israelis will have to

1182
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 4: deny them both those things.

1183
01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:44,440
Speaker 5: They'll have to have.

1184
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:47,000
Speaker 4: A war where the regime really is destabilized. I'd be

1185
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 4: very surprised if he many survives or if his son,

1186
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 4: who is sort of being groomed to replace some survives.

1187
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 4: This will be something that really does does cause terrible

1188
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:59,720
Speaker 4: damage to the Iranian regime. But the Israelis would be

1189
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 4: why is to respond in a way that looks visibly

1190
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:05,520
Speaker 4: like it's trying to avoid hurting the people of Iran,

1191
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:08,960
Speaker 4: And so you know, it's quite likely that Ronald drag

1192
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:13,800
Speaker 4: us all into a rerun of that war essentially. At

1193
01:01:13,840 --> 01:01:16,840
Speaker 4: the same time, it needs to be handled very wisely,

1194
01:01:17,000 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 4: because it really is the Iranian people who can topple

1195
01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:22,840
Speaker 4: this regime, and it has to look like it's then

1196
01:01:22,880 --> 01:01:25,080
Speaker 4: toppling the regime, and that allows us all kind of

1197
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:29,720
Speaker 4: post revolution stability. If they can't, just if it isn't

1198
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 4: doesn't appear to be some American or Israeli project, the

1199
01:01:32,680 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 4: regime will claim that anyway. It told us, any Islamist

1200
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 4: factions will claim that anyway. But most Iranians have to

1201
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:41,400
Speaker 4: know that it's not what's happening, and then it can

1202
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:42,160
Speaker 4: actually happen.

1203
01:01:43,240 --> 01:01:45,720
Speaker 1: Well said, as always, Aviv, I thank you for the

1204
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:50,920
Speaker 1: extra time today Again, find ask Aviv anything wherever podcasts are,

1205
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:53,720
Speaker 1: support them on Patreon, read them in the free press,

1206
01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:57,440
Speaker 1: razors senior analysts, and occasionally at the times of Israel. Aviv,

1207
01:01:57,520 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 1: thank you taught to you in a few weeks or months.

1208
01:01:59,320 --> 01:02:00,360
Speaker 1: I appreciate the time.

1209
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 3: Thank you.

1210
01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 1: Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett. As you heard

1211
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 1: me say at the beginning of the show, the biggest

1212
01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:10,440
Speaker 1: story in the world is what's going on in Iran

1213
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 1: and I know we are all have our favorite interesting stories,

1214
01:02:14,520 --> 01:02:16,400
Speaker 1: and I cover the news as it breaks, but the

1215
01:02:16,440 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 1: biggest story in the world is in Iran. For forty

1216
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 1: seven years that tyranny has been in place, and for

1217
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 1: almost as long, the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy has

1218
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:28,520
Speaker 1: been working to bring it down and free the people

1219
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 1: of Iran. Joining us now is the CEO of the

1220
01:02:31,520 --> 01:02:34,440
Speaker 1: Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, Mark Dubovitz, who has

1221
01:02:34,480 --> 01:02:37,760
Speaker 1: been on with me before. He did a great podcast

1222
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 1: series last year on Iran, which are twelve parts. He

1223
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 1: added another part this weekend called Iran Breakdown. I recommend

1224
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 1: it to you. Mark. Welcome. Let me start with a

1225
01:02:48,320 --> 01:02:50,680
Speaker 1: big what's your reaction to what's happened over the last

1226
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 1: two weeks in a day?

1227
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:54,960
Speaker 8: Well, Hugh, thanks so much for having me on. Look here,

1228
01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 8: it's extraordinary.

1229
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:57,640
Speaker 9: I mean, as you said, I've been working on Iran

1230
01:02:57,720 --> 01:03:02,080
Speaker 9: for twenty two years, working with lots of administrations, including

1231
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:05,840
Speaker 9: the Trump administration, both both Trump administrations on maximum pressure

1232
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 9: on the regime but also encouraging maximum support for the

1233
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:10,640
Speaker 9: Iranian people and the Radiom people have been out on

1234
01:03:10,680 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 9: the streets since two thousand and nine, repeatedly calling for

1235
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 9: death to the dictator and the Islamic Republic establish relations

1236
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 9: with America, with Israel, and now in the past two

1237
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:24,880
Speaker 9: weeks they've taken to the streets. Millions of Iranians are

1238
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:28,200
Speaker 9: on those streets, but they're also getting mowed down by

1239
01:03:28,200 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 9: the security forces. Thousands of Iranians have been slaughtered, Tens

1240
01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:36,360
Speaker 9: of thousands have been arrested, tortured, and dozens executed.

1241
01:03:36,480 --> 01:03:39,080
Speaker 8: So it is a pivotal moment for the United States,

1242
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 8: for Iran, for the region.

1243
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:45,120
Speaker 1: So I've stressed in my audience they can't trust what

1244
01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:47,960
Speaker 1: they see on X unless they know that the person

1245
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:50,720
Speaker 1: on X is someone they can trust. They can trust

1246
01:03:50,760 --> 01:03:54,760
Speaker 1: you and trust Cliff may Kareem Sawd you pour at Carnegie,

1247
01:03:54,880 --> 01:03:57,480
Speaker 1: You've got a lot of colleagues at FDD. I'm pushing out,

1248
01:03:57,880 --> 01:04:00,800
Speaker 1: how do you tell if you're just you know, nubie

1249
01:04:00,960 --> 01:04:04,040
Speaker 1: to the Iran issue, who to trust on this about

1250
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:07,640
Speaker 1: what's going on there? Since the regime's severed outside world

1251
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 1: contact with the people of Tehran and across all of Iran.

1252
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:14,600
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean here, listen, it's difficult to know what's

1253
01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:16,200
Speaker 9: going on the ground because, as you said, they've shut

1254
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:16,840
Speaker 9: down the internet.

1255
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:18,720
Speaker 8: They're interfering with starlink access.

1256
01:04:19,160 --> 01:04:22,520
Speaker 9: Videos are still coming in and we're certainly seeing what's

1257
01:04:22,520 --> 01:04:23,680
Speaker 9: happening on the ground.

1258
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 8: What do I trust?

1259
01:04:24,800 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 9: Look, I don't trust anybody defending the regime number one.

1260
01:04:28,080 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 9: Number two, I don't trust anybody saying that US intervention

1261
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:33,160
Speaker 9: is going to lead to some kind of rally around

1262
01:04:33,160 --> 01:04:36,000
Speaker 9: the flag. The notion that millions of Iranians are on

1263
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:39,320
Speaker 9: the streets and they're getting mowed down by the security forces,

1264
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:43,200
Speaker 9: but somehow, with President Trump intervenes and goes against the regime,

1265
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 9: these Iranians are going to defend the regime, I think

1266
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:48,960
Speaker 9: is nonsense. So anybody's saying that should not be trusted.

1267
01:04:49,240 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 9: I think a lot of good Iranian voices, my colleagues said,

1268
01:04:52,080 --> 01:04:54,880
Speaker 9: got Samanajad certainly Resipolovy.

1269
01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:56,080
Speaker 8: I mean, he's all over.

1270
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:58,760
Speaker 9: Social media, the crown Prince, the son of the former Shaw.

1271
01:04:59,360 --> 01:05:03,480
Speaker 9: He is been very articulate, and I certainly would trust

1272
01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:05,000
Speaker 9: many of the things that he's saying.

1273
01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:09,000
Speaker 1: Okay, now let's talk about what the president can do.

1274
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:12,520
Speaker 1: He was my guest last Thursday, and he said, very bluntly,

1275
01:05:12,880 --> 01:05:15,520
Speaker 1: will hit him very very hard if they kill people.

1276
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:17,640
Speaker 1: But he also gave him a little bit of an

1277
01:05:17,640 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 1: out he said some of these deaths were because of stampede.

1278
01:05:20,600 --> 01:05:23,160
Speaker 1: Later that night, he didn't use that out with Sean

1279
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 1: Hannity as much, and it's been totally abandoned by Sunday night.

1280
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 1: The president now knows there are thousands of people dead.

1281
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:31,919
Speaker 1: I'm sure we've confirmed that to him. What could he do,

1282
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:35,680
Speaker 1: in your view that would be most effective in fraeing Iran?

1283
01:05:37,240 --> 01:05:38,520
Speaker 8: So I think there are number of things he can do.

1284
01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 9: I mean, first of all is to target the security

1285
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:44,280
Speaker 9: forces that are actually engaged in this brutal repression.

1286
01:05:44,680 --> 01:05:46,520
Speaker 8: Go after the repression apparatus.

1287
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 9: And you could do that through offensive cyber and or

1288
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:53,600
Speaker 9: military strikes against the IOGC is on a Revolutionary Guard corps,

1289
01:05:53,640 --> 01:05:56,480
Speaker 9: the besiege, the police.

1290
01:05:56,600 --> 01:05:59,000
Speaker 8: These are the people that are engaged in this brutal repression.

1291
01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:03,440
Speaker 9: Number two is ready to reach out to Elon musk

1292
01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:07,360
Speaker 9: Is to try to restore or improve the starlink connection.

1293
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:10,320
Speaker 9: So these videos are coming out Iranians right now, being

1294
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:13,760
Speaker 9: murdered in the dark. They need to be brought to light,

1295
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 9: and that's very important. I think the presidents and Elon

1296
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:20,520
Speaker 9: can do that. Number three, you know what, Premister Natanyahu

1297
01:06:20,600 --> 01:06:23,120
Speaker 9: and President Trump discussed at the end of December that

1298
01:06:23,160 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 9: you reported on you was the growing and reconstituting Iranian

1299
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:30,680
Speaker 9: missile program, which is gonna represent a significant threat to

1300
01:06:30,760 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 9: the United States and Israel as it gets rebuilt.

1301
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:36,480
Speaker 8: The Israelis are gonna go take it out. I think

1302
01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:38,000
Speaker 8: better the United States takes it out.

1303
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:41,360
Speaker 9: Because of the United States takes out the missile program, Kamine,

1304
01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:44,320
Speaker 9: the Supreme Leader Baran is gonna be quite reluctant to

1305
01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 9: respond because he knows that if he attacks the United States.

1306
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:48,360
Speaker 8: That's the end of his regime.

1307
01:06:48,480 --> 01:06:50,480
Speaker 9: If Israelis take it out, it's going to lead to

1308
01:06:50,560 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 9: another round around the fire, hundreds of not thousands of

1309
01:06:53,640 --> 01:06:55,960
Speaker 9: ballistic missiles at Israel, and we're going to be in

1310
01:06:56,040 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 9: a major war in the United States. And President Trump's

1311
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 9: gonna have to deal with that. And Trump, if he

1312
01:07:01,040 --> 01:07:04,960
Speaker 9: has the opportunity, take out those dangerous ballistic missiles. Support

1313
01:07:04,960 --> 01:07:09,280
Speaker 9: the people, unlock the communications, go after the regime apparatus.

1314
01:07:09,840 --> 01:07:12,439
Speaker 1: Mark, This is a difficult question for anyone to answer,

1315
01:07:12,520 --> 01:07:15,400
Speaker 1: but you'll know if anybody knows. I heard Kareem today

1316
01:07:15,600 --> 01:07:18,160
Speaker 1: in a podcast with Dan Senor say that the IRGC

1317
01:07:18,320 --> 01:07:20,720
Speaker 1: is one hundred and fifty thousand strong. All right, i'rn

1318
01:07:20,880 --> 01:07:24,720
Speaker 1: ninety million people ten percent, nine million people, one percent

1319
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:27,520
Speaker 1: of nine hundred thousand people. So one hundred and fifty

1320
01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:32,120
Speaker 1: thousand IERGC members. That's a third of one percent. How

1321
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:37,760
Speaker 1: hard is it to overthrow one hundred and fifty thousand thugs.

1322
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:39,880
Speaker 1: It's a lot of thugs. They got a lot of guns.

1323
01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 1: There are any other guns in the Irun. But that's

1324
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:46,440
Speaker 1: not a big police state. It's a relatively small, isn't it.

1325
01:07:47,760 --> 01:07:49,800
Speaker 8: Well, there's one hundred and fifty thousand IERGC.

1326
01:07:50,080 --> 01:07:53,040
Speaker 9: There's probably two to three million members of the Basiege,

1327
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:56,200
Speaker 9: which is their militia. Those are the thugs that drive

1328
01:07:56,240 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 9: around in motorcycles and beat up and and torture and

1329
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:03,760
Speaker 9: kill Iranians. So you've got a couple of million there,

1330
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:07,920
Speaker 9: and they're also importing thoughts from Iraq. This is the

1331
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:11,480
Speaker 9: Iraqi Hazbala and the Schiait militias that they're bringing in,

1332
01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:14,880
Speaker 9: bringing in Arabs to kill Persians because in some cases

1333
01:08:15,200 --> 01:08:17,760
Speaker 9: the security forces throwing to turn their guns on their

1334
01:08:17,800 --> 01:08:21,599
Speaker 9: own people. So the regime's apparatus is formidable. But you're right, listen,

1335
01:08:21,640 --> 01:08:24,280
Speaker 9: I mean, there's ninety two million Iranians, and if ten

1336
01:08:24,280 --> 01:08:28,240
Speaker 9: percent came to the street, they could overwhelm the security forces.

1337
01:08:28,520 --> 01:08:31,880
Speaker 9: And certainly some of them are armed, particularly some of

1338
01:08:31,880 --> 01:08:34,439
Speaker 9: the Kurdish groups, the Baluchis and others.

1339
01:08:34,479 --> 01:08:37,080
Speaker 8: So I think that's that's certainly a potential.

1340
01:08:37,760 --> 01:08:41,479
Speaker 1: So, Mark, you're not old enough to remember the actual revolution.

1341
01:08:41,720 --> 01:08:43,960
Speaker 1: I watched it in real time with Ray Price and

1342
01:08:44,040 --> 01:08:47,280
Speaker 1: Richard Nixon and San Clementy my second job out of college.

1343
01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:51,439
Speaker 1: People marched in the daytime. Then do you expect anti

1344
01:08:51,520 --> 01:08:55,559
Speaker 1: regime marches to occur in the daytime? Yeah, they are.

1345
01:08:55,640 --> 01:08:57,719
Speaker 8: They're occurring in the daytime, they occurring in the nighttime.

1346
01:08:57,960 --> 01:08:59,759
Speaker 8: I mean, what I'm.

1347
01:08:59,160 --> 01:09:01,919
Speaker 9: Worried about you is that if there's no US intervention,

1348
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:04,519
Speaker 9: that these protests are going to die off because of

1349
01:09:04,520 --> 01:09:07,200
Speaker 9: the brutal repression. And whether it's day or night, the

1350
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:11,320
Speaker 9: guns are being turned on Iranians, thousands are being slaughtered.

1351
01:09:11,360 --> 01:09:13,760
Speaker 9: At some point, they're just going to have to They're

1352
01:09:13,760 --> 01:09:15,880
Speaker 9: going to stay home. And if they stay home, the

1353
01:09:15,920 --> 01:09:17,920
Speaker 9: regime is going to come out of this. Yes, a

1354
01:09:17,920 --> 01:09:21,600
Speaker 9: wounded animal, but a bitter one, a lethal one, a

1355
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:22,760
Speaker 9: much more dangerous one.

1356
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:25,080
Speaker 8: And I'd be worried that Orion's would never go back.

1357
01:09:24,960 --> 01:09:25,559
Speaker 3: On the streets.

1358
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 1: Follow Mark on exit, M Dubovitch. Follow everyone at FDD.

1359
01:09:30,360 --> 01:09:33,840
Speaker 1: At FDD, Mark is coming back next hour. So other

1360
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:37,719
Speaker 1: than my drivetime audience in the inside the Beltway, here's

1361
01:09:37,720 --> 01:09:39,960
Speaker 1: them for six minutes to repeat a lot of this.

1362
01:09:40,120 --> 01:09:42,840
Speaker 1: So make sure you listen to those segments of my

1363
01:09:42,880 --> 01:09:46,879
Speaker 1: interview with Mark Dubovitch and follow him. Welcome back in America.

1364
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:49,800
Speaker 1: Coming up after the break. Sebastian lie son of Jimmy Lai,

1365
01:09:49,920 --> 01:09:52,320
Speaker 1: is going to join me this hour. This segment though,

1366
01:09:52,680 --> 01:09:55,599
Speaker 1: I'm bringing back Mark Dubovitch, who is with us last hour,

1367
01:09:55,800 --> 01:09:59,320
Speaker 1: is the CEO of the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy.

1368
01:09:59,400 --> 01:10:02,040
Speaker 1: Is one of the actual people you can trust on Iran.

1369
01:10:02,600 --> 01:10:05,559
Speaker 1: Follow them on exit, M Dubovitch. Follow everyone at the

1370
01:10:05,560 --> 01:10:08,800
Speaker 1: Foundation for the Defensive Democracies, and there are a lot

1371
01:10:08,840 --> 01:10:11,639
Speaker 1: of them. There are half dozen Iran experts. The FDD

1372
01:10:11,840 --> 01:10:15,160
Speaker 1: is actually the go to place. Mark. When we ran

1373
01:10:15,200 --> 01:10:16,840
Speaker 1: out of time last hour, I wanted to ask you.

1374
01:10:17,200 --> 01:10:20,280
Speaker 1: President Trump mentioned on Air Force One last night that

1375
01:10:20,320 --> 01:10:23,200
Speaker 1: the regime wants to negotiate. My reaction is, God, no,

1376
01:10:23,320 --> 01:10:25,720
Speaker 1: don't do that. That they're just playing for time. Is

1377
01:10:25,760 --> 01:10:26,519
Speaker 1: that your reaction.

1378
01:10:27,800 --> 01:10:30,400
Speaker 9: Yeah, you absolutely. I mean this is a typical regime trick.

1379
01:10:30,400 --> 01:10:32,960
Speaker 9: They're back is against the walls. So they offer negotiations

1380
01:10:33,320 --> 01:10:35,960
Speaker 9: and try to trap American negotiators. And the only place

1381
01:10:35,960 --> 01:10:38,519
Speaker 9: where they tend to win against America is at the

1382
01:10:38,560 --> 01:10:41,640
Speaker 9: negotiating table. They won against Biden, they won against Obama,

1383
01:10:41,800 --> 01:10:44,080
Speaker 9: they think they could possibly win against President Trump. I

1384
01:10:44,120 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 9: think it'd be a big mistake to go back to

1385
01:10:46,280 --> 01:10:48,960
Speaker 9: the table fundamentally, because number one, it would be a

1386
01:10:48,960 --> 01:10:51,040
Speaker 9: betrayal of the Iranian people that are on the streets.

1387
01:10:51,200 --> 01:10:53,960
Speaker 9: And number two, Hugh, there's no way that Ali Khamenei,

1388
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:56,120
Speaker 9: the Supreme leader of Iran, is going to meet the

1389
01:10:56,200 --> 01:10:59,680
Speaker 9: minimum demands that President Trump has a full dismantlement of

1390
01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:03,120
Speaker 9: their new clear missile programs and terror networks.

1391
01:11:03,240 --> 01:11:04,840
Speaker 8: No way Kamine is going to give into that.

1392
01:11:04,960 --> 01:11:07,160
Speaker 9: And if not, he's just going to play for time,

1393
01:11:07,520 --> 01:11:10,280
Speaker 9: try to divide America, try to divide the White House,

1394
01:11:10,320 --> 01:11:12,720
Speaker 9: try to divide the US from Europe. And he's going

1395
01:11:12,800 --> 01:11:15,400
Speaker 9: to ultimately try to embarrass the President. And I don't

1396
01:11:15,400 --> 01:11:18,559
Speaker 9: think the President is going to be embarrassed and is

1397
01:11:18,600 --> 01:11:21,760
Speaker 9: prepared to be embarrassed, So he needs to enforce the

1398
01:11:21,800 --> 01:11:23,440
Speaker 9: red line that he laid out.

1399
01:11:24,040 --> 01:11:27,760
Speaker 1: Now, Mark, the Israelis could have killed Hamione, and no

1400
01:11:27,800 --> 01:11:30,160
Speaker 1: doubt we can kill Hamione, but there are arguments on

1401
01:11:30,240 --> 01:11:33,200
Speaker 1: both sides. We to leave him alive or we do

1402
01:11:33,280 --> 01:11:36,000
Speaker 1: if we have the ability to have him shot killed.

1403
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:40,800
Speaker 9: Well, I do think we need to decapitate the leadership

1404
01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:45,520
Speaker 9: of Iran, and that includes Kamene, but also includes senior

1405
01:11:45,920 --> 01:11:50,879
Speaker 9: IRGC commanders, those who are in control of the command

1406
01:11:51,000 --> 01:11:55,440
Speaker 9: and control system of Iran, and that includes the repression apparatus.

1407
01:11:55,800 --> 01:11:59,600
Speaker 9: So yeah, if you decapitate the leadership, then this possibility

1408
01:11:59,600 --> 01:12:01,640
Speaker 9: of other stepping into their place. I mean, that's what

1409
01:12:01,760 --> 01:12:04,920
Speaker 9: President Trump did in Venezuela with Maduro. I think there's

1410
01:12:05,000 --> 01:12:08,920
Speaker 9: more than just Kaminae. There are others, but certainly decapitation

1411
01:12:09,439 --> 01:12:11,360
Speaker 9: effort should be seriously considered.

1412
01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:15,440
Speaker 1: All right, Now, Mark, what are the How many IRGC

1413
01:12:15,680 --> 01:12:19,280
Speaker 1: bases are there? How many besiege bases? The final Israeli

1414
01:12:19,400 --> 01:12:22,240
Speaker 1: wave was going to hit them. President Trump waved it

1415
01:12:22,280 --> 01:12:24,240
Speaker 1: off in order to bring that conflict to an end

1416
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:27,479
Speaker 1: last June. How many target sites are we talking about?

1417
01:12:29,479 --> 01:12:31,479
Speaker 9: So there are, I mean there are dozens and dozens

1418
01:12:31,479 --> 01:12:35,639
Speaker 9: of RGC and besiege bases all around the country, obviously

1419
01:12:35,680 --> 01:12:40,080
Speaker 9: headquarters in places like Teylan, but certainly it's a target

1420
01:12:40,120 --> 01:12:42,680
Speaker 9: rich environment. I mean, the Israelis and the Americans have

1421
01:12:42,960 --> 01:12:50,400
Speaker 9: detailed intelligence on all of these bases, maneuvers, apparatus. This

1422
01:12:50,520 --> 01:12:53,840
Speaker 9: has been studied for years here, I mean particular by

1423
01:12:53,880 --> 01:12:56,400
Speaker 9: the Israelis, I mean MOSAD and military intelligence in Israel

1424
01:12:56,520 --> 01:13:01,040
Speaker 9: have a very, very large and expansive target set, and

1425
01:13:01,080 --> 01:13:03,880
Speaker 9: that information has been provided to the Americans. So there's

1426
01:13:03,880 --> 01:13:06,000
Speaker 9: no shortage of targets. Just the question of what President

1427
01:13:06,000 --> 01:13:07,240
Speaker 9: Trump will choose.

1428
01:13:07,880 --> 01:13:11,439
Speaker 1: If President Trump brings down this regime, I think he

1429
01:13:11,560 --> 01:13:15,400
Speaker 1: goes to the top of American presidents, at least since FDR.

1430
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:19,559
Speaker 1: He's going to actually surpass Reagan. The Soviet Union, of course,

1431
01:13:19,560 --> 01:13:22,800
Speaker 1: dissolved under George H. W. Bush. How would you rank

1432
01:13:22,840 --> 01:13:25,559
Speaker 1: that achievement. I think Iran is a lynchpin, and I've

1433
01:13:25,600 --> 01:13:28,519
Speaker 1: got Nixon on the brain. Nixon used to say, it's everything,

1434
01:13:28,520 --> 01:13:30,160
Speaker 1: It's one of the two pillars of the Middle East.

1435
01:13:30,280 --> 01:13:32,400
Speaker 1: And so how big of a moment is this for

1436
01:13:32,479 --> 01:13:33,080
Speaker 1: Donald Trump?

1437
01:13:34,320 --> 01:13:36,800
Speaker 9: Yeah, I've said publicly here you know that that if

1438
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:38,840
Speaker 9: he brings down the Islamic Republic of Iran, he will

1439
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:42,200
Speaker 9: be one of the greatest foreign policy presidents in modern history,

1440
01:13:42,439 --> 01:13:44,880
Speaker 9: if not the greatest. I mean, the Islamic Republic of Iran,

1441
01:13:44,920 --> 01:13:47,920
Speaker 9: first of all, has killed and named thousands of Americans.

1442
01:13:47,960 --> 01:13:51,200
Speaker 9: It has created massive bloodshed and chaos in the Middle

1443
01:13:51,200 --> 01:13:55,240
Speaker 9: East and continue to drag us into these endless wars

1444
01:13:55,280 --> 01:13:59,080
Speaker 9: in the Middle East. It's sponsored terrorism globally. It's threatened

1445
01:13:59,120 --> 01:14:01,439
Speaker 9: to kill President Trump up and try to kill him,

1446
01:14:01,760 --> 01:14:05,280
Speaker 9: and it is try to build nuclear weapons. It has

1447
01:14:05,320 --> 01:14:08,360
Speaker 9: built a massive ballistic missile program. It's fired hundreds of

1448
01:14:08,400 --> 01:14:11,599
Speaker 9: those bulistic missiles at Israel, and missiles and drones at

1449
01:14:11,600 --> 01:14:12,639
Speaker 9: our allies in the Middle East.

1450
01:14:12,680 --> 01:14:13,840
Speaker 8: I mean, it has been such a.

1451
01:14:13,680 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 9: Force for murder, chaos, and violence that to get rid

1452
01:14:16,960 --> 01:14:19,599
Speaker 9: of it and to replace it with something better and

1453
01:14:19,640 --> 01:14:22,800
Speaker 9: more stable, more peaceful, and more prosperous would be a

1454
01:14:22,800 --> 01:14:24,839
Speaker 9: game changer for American national security.

1455
01:14:24,960 --> 01:14:26,800
Speaker 8: And by the way, it would also allow us.

1456
01:14:26,760 --> 01:14:28,559
Speaker 9: To do what we need to do, which is to

1457
01:14:28,600 --> 01:14:31,519
Speaker 9: focus our resources in the coming years on the multi

1458
01:14:31,560 --> 01:14:33,960
Speaker 9: generational threat from the communist Chinese Party.

1459
01:14:34,400 --> 01:14:36,160
Speaker 1: Now I read him here quote and he laughed, he said,

1460
01:14:36,160 --> 01:14:38,599
Speaker 1: haven't I already done that? He's done pretty well. I've

1461
01:14:38,600 --> 01:14:41,320
Speaker 1: got to admit ruining the Iranian nuclear to turn is

1462
01:14:41,320 --> 01:14:44,080
Speaker 1: a big deal. But do you think we could count

1463
01:14:44,240 --> 01:14:49,800
Speaker 1: on a post harmonious Harmonius regime being stable and at

1464
01:14:49,880 --> 01:14:50,839
Speaker 1: least not evil?

1465
01:14:53,040 --> 01:14:55,120
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean Trump also did say that, he said

1466
01:14:55,400 --> 01:14:57,280
Speaker 9: I accept that. I accept that, and he's an a

1467
01:14:57,360 --> 01:14:58,120
Speaker 9: view with you, right.

1468
01:14:58,160 --> 01:14:58,320
Speaker 1: You know.

1469
01:14:58,360 --> 01:15:02,240
Speaker 9: I think he appreciates how important taking down Islamic Republic is,

1470
01:15:02,280 --> 01:15:04,960
Speaker 9: and I think he has for most of his adult life.

1471
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:07,720
Speaker 9: I think we have got I don't think we can

1472
01:15:07,760 --> 01:15:09,599
Speaker 9: count on anything in the Middle East, and we certainly

1473
01:15:09,840 --> 01:15:12,559
Speaker 9: can't count on anything in geopolitics, but there's no doubt

1474
01:15:12,560 --> 01:15:15,000
Speaker 9: in my mind that whatever comes next will be much better.

1475
01:15:15,880 --> 01:15:18,519
Speaker 1: So everyone in your car go to FDD Foundation for

1476
01:15:18,560 --> 01:15:22,439
Speaker 1: the Defensive Democracies. Follow it at FDD, follow Mark at

1477
01:15:22,600 --> 01:15:26,120
Speaker 1: m Dubavitch, and there are lots of other people as well.

1478
01:15:26,120 --> 01:15:29,160
Speaker 1: But make sure they're reliable. Don't believe the regime propaganda.

1479
01:15:29,200 --> 01:15:32,080
Speaker 1: Don't believe the regime mythologists, don't believe people who supported

1480
01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:37,720
Speaker 1: the JCPOA, believe people like part Thank Morning or at

1481
01:15:37,760 --> 01:15:40,600
Speaker 1: Eating Grace America. I'm Hugh Hewittt on this Monday. As

1482
01:15:40,640 --> 01:15:42,720
Speaker 1: I've said throughout the show today, I think we're on

1483
01:15:42,800 --> 01:15:47,200
Speaker 1: the brink of a strike on Iran. But I don't

1484
01:15:47,200 --> 01:15:49,479
Speaker 1: know anything. I just read people who know things. One

1485
01:15:49,479 --> 01:15:53,000
Speaker 1: of them is bet him ben Talablu. Did I get

1486
01:15:53,000 --> 01:15:55,280
Speaker 1: it right? Bet him think because it's one of those

1487
01:15:55,400 --> 01:15:58,080
Speaker 1: names that always was going to trip me up forever?

1488
01:15:58,240 --> 01:15:58,960
Speaker 1: Did I get it right?

1489
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:00,559
Speaker 10: To worry?

1490
01:16:00,560 --> 01:16:02,439
Speaker 6: Great? To be with you here? Yes, pretty close?

1491
01:16:02,560 --> 01:16:05,479
Speaker 1: Great, We got time. So I want to do a

1492
01:16:05,520 --> 01:16:07,880
Speaker 1: deep dive for the benefit of the audience where We've

1493
01:16:07,920 --> 01:16:10,800
Speaker 1: got lots of cameras in Minnesota and appropriately so, but

1494
01:16:10,880 --> 01:16:14,080
Speaker 1: not enough people are following with great specificity what is

1495
01:16:14,120 --> 01:16:16,960
Speaker 1: transpired in the aftermath of a massacre that is really

1496
01:16:17,000 --> 01:16:20,800
Speaker 1: without precedent in post war World War two. Do you

1497
01:16:20,840 --> 01:16:23,040
Speaker 1: agree with me on that it's bigger than Tianamen Square.

1498
01:16:24,880 --> 01:16:25,120
Speaker 2: Yes.

1499
01:16:25,200 --> 01:16:29,559
Speaker 6: Unfortunately, the reported estimates we keep getting keep growing. Now,

1500
01:16:29,640 --> 01:16:32,760
Speaker 6: thirty to thirty six thousand is a reported estimate. Yes,

1501
01:16:32,800 --> 01:16:36,200
Speaker 6: in terms of confirmed people, places, names, faces, it's about

1502
01:16:36,200 --> 01:16:38,879
Speaker 6: five to six thousand, depending on the human rights organization

1503
01:16:38,960 --> 01:16:41,960
Speaker 6: you choose. But those human rights organizations are steadily and

1504
01:16:42,000 --> 01:16:46,320
Speaker 6: busily looking from seventeen to nineteen thousand other cases right now.

1505
01:16:46,360 --> 01:16:47,840
Speaker 6: So if you again you take a bottom of the

1506
01:16:47,920 --> 01:16:51,920
Speaker 6: barrel assessment here it's twenty to thirty thousand plus. And again,

1507
01:16:51,960 --> 01:16:54,160
Speaker 6: this is not just yours truly as a member of

1508
01:16:54,200 --> 01:16:56,759
Speaker 6: the running diasp for saying this. This is CBS News,

1509
01:16:56,760 --> 01:17:00,200
Speaker 6: this is Iran International, this is Time magazine, and this

1510
01:17:00,320 --> 01:17:03,760
Speaker 6: is you know, Times of London. Everyone is coming to

1511
01:17:03,760 --> 01:17:06,599
Speaker 6: the same conclusion because they're looking at the same internal sources.

1512
01:17:07,160 --> 01:17:09,400
Speaker 1: And I'm going to come back and establish why people

1513
01:17:09,400 --> 01:17:12,240
Speaker 1: should listen very closely to you after I get the

1514
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:18,320
Speaker 1: quick update our executions underway despite Donald Trump's red line.

1515
01:17:20,360 --> 01:17:22,240
Speaker 6: If you look at what's going on in Persian language

1516
01:17:22,240 --> 01:17:24,600
Speaker 6: social media, yes, indeed, And yet you don't have to

1517
01:17:24,640 --> 01:17:27,439
Speaker 6: take it for me. You can take it from Iranian officials,

1518
01:17:27,439 --> 01:17:31,840
Speaker 6: including someone from the judiciary who mocked actually President Trump

1519
01:17:32,120 --> 01:17:35,439
Speaker 6: for believing. Yet someone who also similarly mocked President Trump

1520
01:17:35,439 --> 01:17:38,160
Speaker 6: for believing that there was a stay of execution, or

1521
01:17:38,200 --> 01:17:40,640
Speaker 6: a pause of executions, or even just a kind of

1522
01:17:40,680 --> 01:17:43,360
Speaker 6: an about face on the repression altogether, was a former

1523
01:17:43,720 --> 01:17:47,320
Speaker 6: advisor to the Supreme Leader, mister Larry Johnny. These guys

1524
01:17:47,320 --> 01:17:50,240
Speaker 6: are like their brothers or the Kennedy family brothers popularly

1525
01:17:50,280 --> 01:17:55,839
Speaker 6: called in Iran, and this brother Mohammed Jabad. Larry Johnny

1526
01:17:55,840 --> 01:18:00,639
Speaker 6: in a recent Persian language talk show had actually again

1527
01:18:00,880 --> 01:18:04,320
Speaker 6: the president for believing that there were these pauses or

1528
01:18:04,360 --> 01:18:05,280
Speaker 6: stays of execution.

1529
01:18:05,439 --> 01:18:08,599
Speaker 1: Given well, this is why I want the audience to understand.

1530
01:18:08,600 --> 01:18:10,559
Speaker 1: The reason I think as strike as imminent is because

1531
01:18:10,600 --> 01:18:14,160
Speaker 1: the Iranian officials have been taunting President Trump. Half of

1532
01:18:14,200 --> 01:18:18,320
Speaker 1: them have been, including the Atolahameni and his sort of thugs,

1533
01:18:18,560 --> 01:18:20,880
Speaker 1: and then the other half of the Iranian regime tries

1534
01:18:20,920 --> 01:18:23,920
Speaker 1: to talk nice to us through mister Whitcoff. And we'll

1535
01:18:23,960 --> 01:18:26,639
Speaker 1: talk with Benham about that in a moment, but let's

1536
01:18:26,640 --> 01:18:29,639
Speaker 1: start by establishing who you are. It's the first time

1537
01:18:29,680 --> 01:18:31,800
Speaker 1: on the show, so I've got to ask you. Was

1538
01:18:31,840 --> 01:18:33,599
Speaker 1: Aldreus a communist? By Benham?

1539
01:18:35,640 --> 01:18:38,320
Speaker 6: First time caller, longtime listener. I'm a big fan of

1540
01:18:38,720 --> 01:18:43,200
Speaker 6: Nixon history at Paraphernalia, so I do believe he was.

1541
01:18:43,320 --> 01:18:45,400
Speaker 1: Yes, And have you read the Looming Tower?

1542
01:18:47,080 --> 01:18:50,000
Speaker 6: I have. Actually, this is a controversial point in the office.

1543
01:18:50,320 --> 01:18:53,120
Speaker 6: I have actually only skimmed the Looming Tower and stayed

1544
01:18:53,120 --> 01:18:56,479
Speaker 6: away from the documentaries because with some of other colleagues

1545
01:18:56,520 --> 01:18:59,040
Speaker 6: there's a line I'm infamous for given that I focused

1546
01:18:59,040 --> 01:19:01,240
Speaker 6: on Iran and the acts of resistance in the office,

1547
01:19:01,280 --> 01:19:04,879
Speaker 6: which is sometimes I find Sunni terrorism not as interesting

1548
01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:05,879
Speaker 6: as Shia terrorism.

1549
01:19:05,960 --> 01:19:09,479
Speaker 1: Well that was actually I understand it completely.

1550
01:19:09,040 --> 01:19:13,479
Speaker 6: For you, but a nine to eleven hits home very hard.

1551
01:19:14,680 --> 01:19:17,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I actually am very glad you made the

1552
01:19:17,640 --> 01:19:23,800
Speaker 1: key distinction. Al Qaeda is Sunni Wahabbist extremism Islamist fanaticism,

1553
01:19:24,240 --> 01:19:27,560
Speaker 1: and what's going on in Iran is the Shia fanaticism.

1554
01:19:27,840 --> 01:19:31,439
Speaker 1: And so tell us your background on Iran about him

1555
01:19:31,479 --> 01:19:34,360
Speaker 1: so the audience can understand you are not talking out

1556
01:19:34,400 --> 01:19:34,840
Speaker 1: of your hat.

1557
01:19:36,240 --> 01:19:38,719
Speaker 6: Well, I try not to anyway. But I'm a first

1558
01:19:38,760 --> 01:19:41,120
Speaker 6: generation in Iranian American born and raised in the United

1559
01:19:41,120 --> 01:19:44,439
Speaker 6: States to two immigrant parents. On my mother's side, her

1560
01:19:44,479 --> 01:19:47,919
Speaker 6: father was a political prisoner at the heyday of the revolution.

1561
01:19:48,040 --> 01:19:51,280
Speaker 6: He was a reporter under the previous government, taken to

1562
01:19:51,280 --> 01:19:53,800
Speaker 6: Eving Prison. Thankfully he got out, but after he got out,

1563
01:19:53,840 --> 01:19:56,639
Speaker 6: the whole family fled. And I wouldn't say that cast

1564
01:19:57,040 --> 01:20:01,360
Speaker 6: an overcast through a shadow over my future my career,

1565
01:20:01,360 --> 01:20:03,719
Speaker 6: But I was interested growing up as a first generation

1566
01:20:03,760 --> 01:20:07,080
Speaker 6: Iranian American about these issues, seeing that the Iran I

1567
01:20:07,160 --> 01:20:09,320
Speaker 6: knew at home and with family and with friends being

1568
01:20:09,400 --> 01:20:12,400
Speaker 6: drastically different than the Iran I saw in the nineties

1569
01:20:12,439 --> 01:20:14,880
Speaker 6: and two thousands, and again in the heyday of the

1570
01:20:14,880 --> 01:20:17,360
Speaker 6: Global War on Terror at Post nine to eleven Middle East.

1571
01:20:17,680 --> 01:20:20,160
Speaker 6: But about nineteen years I've spent in Washington, d c.

1572
01:20:20,400 --> 01:20:23,599
Speaker 6: All working on open source stuff, and thirteen years at

1573
01:20:23,600 --> 01:20:26,719
Speaker 6: the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, where I've been intimately involved

1574
01:20:26,720 --> 01:20:29,280
Speaker 6: in their Iran program, and I'm the senior director of

1575
01:20:29,280 --> 01:20:32,200
Speaker 6: their Iran program now, where I oversee the breath and

1576
01:20:32,280 --> 01:20:34,519
Speaker 6: depth of a lot of their work on Iran. And

1577
01:20:34,560 --> 01:20:36,600
Speaker 6: I've had the privilege over these thirteen years to be

1578
01:20:36,640 --> 01:20:43,200
Speaker 6: invited to four different continents to brief media, government, military,

1579
01:20:43,320 --> 01:20:47,919
Speaker 6: academic audiences around the world on the Iran issue.

1580
01:20:48,439 --> 01:20:52,479
Speaker 1: So I only try and bring on people who are serious,

1581
01:20:52,840 --> 01:20:58,519
Speaker 1: mister Ostovar. Richard Goldberg is on tomorrow your calleing. Mark

1582
01:20:58,560 --> 01:21:01,800
Speaker 1: Tibowitz has been on this program, Clifford, May I try

1583
01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:06,040
Speaker 1: and bring on people but that know what they're speaking about.

1584
01:21:06,240 --> 01:21:08,559
Speaker 1: I got to ask you, know, I've been listening to

1585
01:21:08,640 --> 01:21:12,760
Speaker 1: the book King of Kings by Scott Anderson. How do

1586
01:21:12,840 --> 01:21:15,640
Speaker 1: you write it as a history of nineteen seventy eight

1587
01:21:15,720 --> 01:21:17,799
Speaker 1: seventy nine and the immediate thereafter.

1588
01:21:18,960 --> 01:21:22,120
Speaker 6: Well, I eagerly bought it because, you know, history is

1589
01:21:22,240 --> 01:21:24,280
Speaker 6: kind of what animates us in the policy space. If

1590
01:21:24,280 --> 01:21:25,680
Speaker 6: we don't know history, we're not going to know what

1591
01:21:25,720 --> 01:21:29,120
Speaker 6: we're talking about today. I recommend buying the book. I

1592
01:21:29,200 --> 01:21:31,759
Speaker 6: have some major qualms with the way the book goes

1593
01:21:31,840 --> 01:21:35,360
Speaker 6: through the lives of certain individuals, particularly some folks at

1594
01:21:35,400 --> 01:21:37,559
Speaker 6: the State Department at the time. It kind of uses

1595
01:21:37,640 --> 01:21:40,559
Speaker 6: their personal story to tell a story of the Iranian Revolution.

1596
01:21:40,880 --> 01:21:43,880
Speaker 6: I don't think that's always the best prism to tell

1597
01:21:44,000 --> 01:21:46,520
Speaker 6: history through. I think if you're doing history as biography,

1598
01:21:46,520 --> 01:21:49,760
Speaker 6: you're better off focusing on, you know, the biographies of

1599
01:21:49,800 --> 01:21:51,880
Speaker 6: people in the Middle East, because they've really made and

1600
01:21:51,920 --> 01:21:55,240
Speaker 6: reshaped their states. You know. Focusing on a bureaucrat at

1601
01:21:55,240 --> 01:21:57,880
Speaker 6: the State Department to understand something as seismic as the

1602
01:21:57,880 --> 01:22:02,360
Speaker 6: Iranian Revolution is not the best tool. So I think

1603
01:22:02,400 --> 01:22:05,320
Speaker 6: it's an important book to have. It is certainly, by

1604
01:22:05,360 --> 01:22:07,679
Speaker 6: no means the only book to have on that revolution.

1605
01:22:08,360 --> 01:22:11,400
Speaker 6: I would recommend two good books on twentieth century Iran,

1606
01:22:11,560 --> 01:22:14,840
Speaker 6: The Last Jaw by Ray tak Here, as well as

1607
01:22:14,880 --> 01:22:17,719
Speaker 6: of course Days of God by James Buckan.

1608
01:22:18,560 --> 01:22:20,679
Speaker 1: All Right, what do you make of Vanguard of Them

1609
01:22:20,720 --> 01:22:21,839
Speaker 1: Mom by mister Rostovar.

1610
01:22:23,400 --> 01:22:26,160
Speaker 6: I've actually done a book review of Vanguard of the mom.

1611
01:22:26,200 --> 01:22:31,120
Speaker 6: It's actually the nicest, best synthesis of the IRGC, which

1612
01:22:31,160 --> 01:22:34,160
Speaker 6: is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps out there from the

1613
01:22:34,240 --> 01:22:37,519
Speaker 6: academic world and in terms of the policy world. You know,

1614
01:22:37,520 --> 01:22:39,280
Speaker 6: there are some people that I know and respect and

1615
01:22:39,360 --> 01:22:42,200
Speaker 6: work with that have talked about the Guard core, this

1616
01:22:42,280 --> 01:22:44,920
Speaker 6: kind of tip of the revolutionary sphere of the Islamic

1617
01:22:44,960 --> 01:22:48,759
Speaker 6: Republic as being able to create a military dictatorship overnight.

1618
01:22:48,840 --> 01:22:51,000
Speaker 6: And then there's some people who talk about it purely

1619
01:22:51,040 --> 01:22:54,800
Speaker 6: within the Islamic or Islamist lens. Mosto Far does a

1620
01:22:54,880 --> 01:22:57,519
Speaker 6: nice balance in between. So Vanguard of the mom is

1621
01:22:57,520 --> 01:22:59,960
Speaker 6: a good book if you want to understand the orige

1622
01:23:00,360 --> 01:23:02,880
Speaker 6: and the evolution of the IRGC.

1623
01:23:03,680 --> 01:23:06,479
Speaker 1: Now, I have been following a few people very closely.

1624
01:23:06,720 --> 01:23:09,800
Speaker 1: Kareem Saidyrpoor, who I'm honored to know. I'm sure you

1625
01:23:09,880 --> 01:23:12,800
Speaker 1: respect his work, and he's at Karnage absolutely. Am I

1626
01:23:12,920 --> 01:23:16,760
Speaker 1: right that you respect Koreas? And I've been following you

1627
01:23:16,880 --> 01:23:21,240
Speaker 1: and Mark Dubowitz and other people. I don't know what

1628
01:23:21,320 --> 01:23:24,640
Speaker 1: to trust when people say here's Persian language media, and

1629
01:23:24,680 --> 01:23:28,280
Speaker 1: I'm translating it for you because you can't believe everything.

1630
01:23:28,320 --> 01:23:30,479
Speaker 1: Have you seen a lot of misinformation on the web

1631
01:23:30,680 --> 01:23:33,840
Speaker 1: the in the recent weeks, Well.

1632
01:23:33,720 --> 01:23:36,000
Speaker 6: It depends a great deal what you're looking at. There

1633
01:23:36,040 --> 01:23:39,120
Speaker 6: is a lot of narrative based misinformation. You know, Iran's

1634
01:23:39,120 --> 01:23:43,280
Speaker 6: octagenarian Supreme Leader, so called Supreme Leader, as President Trump

1635
01:23:43,320 --> 01:23:46,680
Speaker 6: likes to say, believes that sometimes more important than the

1636
01:23:46,760 --> 01:23:49,920
Speaker 6: kinetic war is winning the narrative war. You know, these

1637
01:23:49,920 --> 01:23:52,519
Speaker 6: are people who actually believe what they're talking about, and

1638
01:23:52,560 --> 01:23:54,880
Speaker 6: they're trying to make you believe what they're talking about

1639
01:23:54,920 --> 01:23:58,679
Speaker 6: as well. So they have spent considerable time, effort, attention,

1640
01:23:58,880 --> 01:24:01,880
Speaker 6: money to try to sow scored on social media, to

1641
01:24:01,960 --> 01:24:04,479
Speaker 6: try to sow discord within the Iranian opposition, to try

1642
01:24:04,479 --> 01:24:07,639
Speaker 6: to sow discord everywhere. And you don't have to take

1643
01:24:07,680 --> 01:24:09,240
Speaker 6: that just for me. You can even look at the

1644
01:24:09,280 --> 01:24:13,240
Speaker 6: way the Bided Administrations Director of National Intelligence talked about

1645
01:24:13,479 --> 01:24:16,000
Speaker 6: the way they even tried to penetrate and even fund

1646
01:24:16,040 --> 01:24:18,600
Speaker 6: and fuel many of the pro Palestine protests here. So

1647
01:24:18,960 --> 01:24:22,080
Speaker 6: you are precisely right to talk about the challenge and

1648
01:24:22,120 --> 01:24:26,200
Speaker 6: the kaleidoscope of the information environment and to make it

1649
01:24:26,240 --> 01:24:28,800
Speaker 6: even harder to understand, not only is this regime putting

1650
01:24:28,800 --> 01:24:33,960
Speaker 6: out disinformation and misinformation, calling Iranian protesters who are unarmed terrorists,

1651
01:24:34,000 --> 01:24:37,400
Speaker 6: saying people who were killed were actually regime loyalists, and

1652
01:24:37,479 --> 01:24:40,519
Speaker 6: forcing their families into forced confessions and all of this

1653
01:24:40,600 --> 01:24:44,120
Speaker 6: other atrocious stuff that has really turned the street against

1654
01:24:44,120 --> 01:24:47,320
Speaker 6: the state for many years now inside Iran. But then

1655
01:24:47,360 --> 01:24:50,400
Speaker 6: they also had this two plus week internet blackout for

1656
01:24:50,520 --> 01:24:53,680
Speaker 6: fear of having been seen as transgressing Trump's redline on

1657
01:24:53,800 --> 01:24:54,479
Speaker 6: this crackdown.

1658
01:24:55,400 --> 01:24:59,800
Speaker 1: So, benam, have you at the foundation or a group

1659
01:24:59,840 --> 01:25:03,400
Speaker 1: of people put forward for journalists like me who want

1660
01:25:03,439 --> 01:25:08,120
Speaker 1: to follow credible experts, a comprehensive list of people that

1661
01:25:08,120 --> 01:25:10,559
Speaker 1: they I try and do it occasionally. I'm always mentioning

1662
01:25:10,600 --> 01:25:14,519
Speaker 1: you and Mark and Kareem and Richard and Yashar, who

1663
01:25:14,560 --> 01:25:16,160
Speaker 1: I disagree with, but I think he does a good

1664
01:25:16,240 --> 01:25:18,960
Speaker 1: job reporting on Iran. We have one minute. Have I

1665
01:25:19,000 --> 01:25:21,760
Speaker 1: missed somebody other than I clif heard? May of course,

1666
01:25:21,800 --> 01:25:24,640
Speaker 1: But have I missed anyone I should be following? Absolutely?

1667
01:25:25,920 --> 01:25:27,920
Speaker 6: I think you know, you hit some of the greats.

1668
01:25:27,920 --> 01:25:29,880
Speaker 6: It's an honor to be included among them. I personally

1669
01:25:29,920 --> 01:25:32,280
Speaker 6: don't believe it's my view as a think tanker in

1670
01:25:32,439 --> 01:25:36,000
Speaker 6: Washington to you know, name some and not name others.

1671
01:25:36,439 --> 01:25:38,040
Speaker 6: But I think you know folks who are in the

1672
01:25:38,040 --> 01:25:41,439
Speaker 6: media space like you, who have found credible and reliable voices.

1673
01:25:41,960 --> 01:25:44,200
Speaker 6: When you amplify it a we're grateful and be the

1674
01:25:44,240 --> 01:25:46,920
Speaker 6: American people are grateful. So you know, kudos to you

1675
01:25:46,960 --> 01:25:47,400
Speaker 6: for doing that.

1676
01:25:48,000 --> 01:25:50,040
Speaker 1: When we come back from break, I'm going to ask

1677
01:25:50,080 --> 01:25:52,840
Speaker 1: bet Him to walk us through the situation as he

1678
01:25:52,960 --> 01:25:56,920
Speaker 1: understands it. Monday mid day drive time inside the Beltway,

1679
01:25:57,000 --> 01:25:59,920
Speaker 1: a snowed in belt Way, but from all this sort

1680
01:25:59,960 --> 01:26:01,960
Speaker 1: of so as I see inside the United States and

1681
01:26:02,000 --> 01:26:04,920
Speaker 1: from Israel, which I trust on this file people like

1682
01:26:04,920 --> 01:26:08,840
Speaker 1: a Meet Segal and not Aveyal and others will get

1683
01:26:08,880 --> 01:26:11,240
Speaker 1: his take on where we are on this Monday. Stay

1684
01:26:11,240 --> 01:26:14,559
Speaker 1: tuned at the qq AT shot. Welcome back to America.

1685
01:26:14,680 --> 01:26:20,720
Speaker 1: I'm qqw At Benham Ben Talablue is an Iranian, first

1686
01:26:20,760 --> 01:26:24,919
Speaker 1: generation Iranian American and an expert on the Islamic Republic

1687
01:26:25,160 --> 01:26:28,479
Speaker 1: of Iran. So Benham is joining me for the most

1688
01:26:28,479 --> 01:26:30,280
Speaker 1: of this hour, not in the last three minutes when

1689
01:26:30,320 --> 01:26:32,679
Speaker 1: we transition to Larry Elder, but most of this hour

1690
01:26:33,040 --> 01:26:35,080
Speaker 1: in order to talk about where we are. So I

1691
01:26:35,120 --> 01:26:37,679
Speaker 1: want to give you the floor the nine minute segment, Benham,

1692
01:26:37,840 --> 01:26:40,400
Speaker 1: Where are we right now in your estimate, and what

1693
01:26:40,439 --> 01:26:43,519
Speaker 1: do you see happening in the hours, days, weeks ahead.

1694
01:26:44,720 --> 01:26:48,400
Speaker 6: We're at a critical juncture, not just in the long battle,

1695
01:26:48,439 --> 01:26:50,840
Speaker 6: the forty seven year battle between the street and the

1696
01:26:50,920 --> 01:26:54,880
Speaker 6: state inside Iran, but we're also at a critical juncture

1697
01:26:54,880 --> 01:26:58,960
Speaker 6: in US Iran relations. Never has military force been threatened

1698
01:26:59,000 --> 01:27:02,280
Speaker 6: so overtly and credibly, I might add in this way.

1699
01:27:02,320 --> 01:27:05,519
Speaker 6: So I think right now we're at the countdown to

1700
01:27:05,680 --> 01:27:09,599
Speaker 6: a highly likely strike, overt kinetic strike by the Trump

1701
01:27:09,640 --> 01:27:13,240
Speaker 6: administration against the Islamic Republic of Iran, with many questions

1702
01:27:13,320 --> 01:27:16,439
Speaker 6: lingering about the targets, about the relationship between the strike

1703
01:27:16,520 --> 01:27:20,400
Speaker 6: and protest, about how to counter the regime's potential retaliation,

1704
01:27:20,760 --> 01:27:24,400
Speaker 6: and perhaps most importantly, how a strike politically and from

1705
01:27:24,439 --> 01:27:28,360
Speaker 6: a policy perspective feeds into what the President had already

1706
01:27:28,400 --> 01:27:30,599
Speaker 6: wanted to achieve with respect to Iran.

1707
01:27:32,000 --> 01:27:34,320
Speaker 1: So there are a lot of options on the table.

1708
01:27:34,360 --> 01:27:37,120
Speaker 1: I've heard a lot of people talk about impediments in

1709
01:27:37,160 --> 01:27:40,599
Speaker 1: the Israeli media. They mentioned that Turkey has reinstalled radar

1710
01:27:40,720 --> 01:27:43,240
Speaker 1: in Damascus, which may be an impediment to the IDF

1711
01:27:43,320 --> 01:27:46,240
Speaker 1: working with us. That might not matter to our stealth

1712
01:27:46,240 --> 01:27:48,679
Speaker 1: fighters coming off the Lincoln or from the air bases.

1713
01:27:50,200 --> 01:27:54,599
Speaker 1: What is your assessment of the Israeli American coordination level

1714
01:27:54,640 --> 01:27:57,040
Speaker 1: and whether or not an American strike would be joint

1715
01:27:57,600 --> 01:28:00,679
Speaker 1: or prior to Israeli strike.

1716
01:28:01,920 --> 01:28:05,519
Speaker 6: It's actually an excellent question because if past this prologue,

1717
01:28:05,600 --> 01:28:08,200
Speaker 6: the coordination that exists not just at the military level,

1718
01:28:08,200 --> 01:28:11,640
Speaker 6: but at the political and intelligence level between Israel and

1719
01:28:11,680 --> 01:28:15,280
Speaker 6: the United States, and in particular between the Trump administration

1720
01:28:16,040 --> 01:28:19,679
Speaker 6: and the net Yahoo government in Israel is quite extensive.

1721
01:28:19,720 --> 01:28:21,760
Speaker 6: I mean quite literally. They were able to dupe and

1722
01:28:22,280 --> 01:28:26,360
Speaker 6: fake and bob and weave over the past few months

1723
01:28:26,400 --> 01:28:28,920
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty five, prior to the Twelve Day War,

1724
01:28:28,960 --> 01:28:32,600
Speaker 6: with many credible journalists and experts left guessing as to

1725
01:28:32,680 --> 01:28:35,160
Speaker 6: the different sides of, you know, the Iran issue. These

1726
01:28:35,160 --> 01:28:38,639
Speaker 6: two countries and administrations came down on only to see

1727
01:28:38,640 --> 01:28:41,160
Speaker 6: that they were singing from the same sheet of music

1728
01:28:41,439 --> 01:28:44,200
Speaker 6: once the actual kinetic activity started with the Twelve Day War.

1729
01:28:44,280 --> 01:28:47,000
Speaker 6: So ultimately, I actually think there's a lot more that

1730
01:28:47,160 --> 01:28:49,320
Speaker 6: is going on behind the scenes. I think in terms

1731
01:28:49,360 --> 01:28:52,240
Speaker 6: of order. You raise a very interesting question, is it

1732
01:28:52,280 --> 01:28:55,400
Speaker 6: America first than Israel or is it Israel first in America?

1733
01:28:55,479 --> 01:28:57,240
Speaker 6: And in terms of the targeting, if there is going

1734
01:28:57,320 --> 01:28:59,559
Speaker 6: to be something kinetic, and again it highly looks like that,

1735
01:29:00,479 --> 01:29:02,719
Speaker 6: will there be a division of labor? You know, last

1736
01:29:02,720 --> 01:29:04,920
Speaker 6: time these really is cleared the way for America to

1737
01:29:04,960 --> 01:29:07,840
Speaker 6: have a powerful strike against the nuclear program. This time,

1738
01:29:07,880 --> 01:29:09,760
Speaker 6: of course, you have to worry about how can you

1739
01:29:09,800 --> 01:29:13,800
Speaker 6: suppress the regime's lethal ballistic missile force, anti access area

1740
01:29:13,840 --> 01:29:17,080
Speaker 6: general capabilities while being able to hold the political and

1741
01:29:17,120 --> 01:29:20,640
Speaker 6: security elite responsible for the crackdown against the States. So

1742
01:29:20,680 --> 01:29:23,040
Speaker 6: one wonders, right now, is there a division of labor?

1743
01:29:23,400 --> 01:29:26,519
Speaker 6: And if passes prologue, I highly think there is, so.

1744
01:29:26,880 --> 01:29:30,400
Speaker 1: Benam, I've asked everyone about this. There are only three

1745
01:29:30,680 --> 01:29:35,040
Speaker 1: export oil exporting terminals in Iran. One is on carg Island,

1746
01:29:35,080 --> 01:29:38,280
Speaker 1: there are two other ones adjacent. That is the lifeblood

1747
01:29:38,360 --> 01:29:41,559
Speaker 1: of the IRGC. That is the currency upon which their

1748
01:29:41,640 --> 01:29:44,800
Speaker 1: terror network operates, and they pay their people even it's

1749
01:29:44,880 --> 01:29:49,320
Speaker 1: hard currency through shadow companies. Why don't we hit them

1750
01:29:49,640 --> 01:29:50,400
Speaker 1: if we go in?

1751
01:29:51,840 --> 01:29:54,439
Speaker 6: So? I think thus far the US has been a

1752
01:29:54,439 --> 01:29:58,000
Speaker 6: bit reticent to escalate and Moss against energy. One reason

1753
01:29:58,000 --> 01:30:00,559
Speaker 6: has been energy prices. The other reason has been the

1754
01:30:00,560 --> 01:30:06,160
Speaker 6: Iranians might go full force against GCC energy infrastructure, which again,

1755
01:30:06,200 --> 01:30:08,320
Speaker 6: if passes prologue, the regime would try to do that.

1756
01:30:08,320 --> 01:30:11,240
Speaker 1: That would be the Golf Coordinating Council. You now five

1757
01:30:11,280 --> 01:30:13,240
Speaker 1: dollars in the tip jar, then i'd be a rule

1758
01:30:13,280 --> 01:30:15,920
Speaker 1: of the heug here would show that former congress from

1759
01:30:15,920 --> 01:30:20,600
Speaker 1: Mike Allagher would break no acronyms without expert Okay, the

1760
01:30:20,680 --> 01:30:22,639
Speaker 1: Golf Coordinating coordinated Yeah.

1761
01:30:23,000 --> 01:30:26,000
Speaker 6: Yes, so if America's Arab partners on the other side

1762
01:30:26,000 --> 01:30:27,880
Speaker 6: of the Persian golf places where we have a lot

1763
01:30:27,920 --> 01:30:30,320
Speaker 6: of bases. But you remember in twenty nineteen there was

1764
01:30:30,360 --> 01:30:33,439
Speaker 6: a drone and cruise missile attack by the regime against

1765
01:30:33,479 --> 01:30:36,439
Speaker 6: Saudi oil facilities. It's assumed that it could engage in

1766
01:30:36,520 --> 01:30:39,599
Speaker 6: a much larger and much wider operation. Really from the

1767
01:30:39,640 --> 01:30:43,000
Speaker 6: mid Obama period twenty ten twenty twelve, when there was

1768
01:30:43,040 --> 01:30:46,519
Speaker 6: the talk of oil sanctions being floated in Washington and

1769
01:30:46,520 --> 01:30:50,320
Speaker 6: then enforced over time, Iran had talked about responding in

1770
01:30:50,439 --> 01:30:54,479
Speaker 6: kind against energy infrastructure. So you know, there's a desire

1771
01:30:54,520 --> 01:30:57,439
Speaker 6: not to spook or provoke the Islamic Republic into doing that.

1772
01:30:57,640 --> 01:30:59,600
Speaker 6: But then again, at this point in time, when the

1773
01:30:59,640 --> 01:31:02,720
Speaker 6: regime is so weak, when the regime basically has no

1774
01:31:02,760 --> 01:31:05,800
Speaker 6: air defenses, when it's come up short against American and

1775
01:31:05,880 --> 01:31:09,760
Speaker 6: Israeli conventional military capability, when its nuclear program is down,

1776
01:31:10,200 --> 01:31:13,160
Speaker 6: when its proxies have been neutered. The question is if

1777
01:31:13,160 --> 01:31:16,200
Speaker 6: Iran does respond to a US attack against Caig Island,

1778
01:31:16,280 --> 01:31:19,840
Speaker 6: for example, just hypothetically, it would be leading with its

1779
01:31:19,920 --> 01:31:23,840
Speaker 6: chin because it would literally try to attack civilian infrastructure

1780
01:31:23,840 --> 01:31:25,680
Speaker 6: on the other side of the Persian Gulf and in

1781
01:31:25,800 --> 01:31:28,080
Speaker 6: so doing bring Uncle Sam in in a much much

1782
01:31:28,120 --> 01:31:32,080
Speaker 6: bigger way. So potentially the Islamic Republic is threatening damage

1783
01:31:32,360 --> 01:31:35,280
Speaker 6: that it can't win an escalation spiral with respect to

1784
01:31:35,400 --> 01:31:37,840
Speaker 6: So those are options that remain on the table. I

1785
01:31:37,840 --> 01:31:40,160
Speaker 6: don't think the US might start with that, but those

1786
01:31:40,160 --> 01:31:42,320
Speaker 6: are options that remain on the table, and perhaps the

1787
01:31:42,400 --> 01:31:45,599
Speaker 6: US could credibly wield that as a tool to get

1788
01:31:45,680 --> 01:31:49,160
Speaker 6: Kamina to take this punishment or even decapitate the Hominy

1789
01:31:49,280 --> 01:31:52,920
Speaker 6: led government there as a way to bargain against responding.

1790
01:31:54,040 --> 01:31:55,479
Speaker 1: I don't want to be overcomfident, but I was in

1791
01:31:55,479 --> 01:31:59,400
Speaker 1: the Reagan administration when Operation praying manage happen, and President

1792
01:31:59,479 --> 01:32:03,280
Speaker 1: Reagan or ordered half or two thirds of the Iranian

1793
01:32:03,880 --> 01:32:06,200
Speaker 1: navy sunk and it was. And they didn't put a

1794
01:32:06,240 --> 01:32:08,519
Speaker 1: glove on us. I don't recall that they did. Maybe

1795
01:32:08,520 --> 01:32:11,759
Speaker 1: they did have one destroyer strike. I'm not really worried

1796
01:32:11,880 --> 01:32:15,280
Speaker 1: if we go all in about their ability other than

1797
01:32:15,320 --> 01:32:17,839
Speaker 1: for Israel. I mean, they could fuse all lot Israel

1798
01:32:18,080 --> 01:32:21,480
Speaker 1: with every launcher they've got left and try and overwhelm

1799
01:32:21,640 --> 01:32:26,160
Speaker 1: Iron Dome. What is your greatest concern? Because the oil

1800
01:32:26,280 --> 01:32:30,200
Speaker 1: money keeps that regime alive. There's no way it survives

1801
01:32:30,560 --> 01:32:32,040
Speaker 1: three years without the oil money.

1802
01:32:33,760 --> 01:32:37,559
Speaker 6: Precisely, going after a higherg island and Assalujah would basically

1803
01:32:37,560 --> 01:32:40,120
Speaker 6: be a death blow to the regime's economy, and there

1804
01:32:40,120 --> 01:32:43,120
Speaker 6: would be expediting the taking time bomb that is already

1805
01:32:43,720 --> 01:32:46,840
Speaker 6: the poor economy of the Islamic Republic. That being said,

1806
01:32:46,840 --> 01:32:49,760
Speaker 6: I think there have been updated plans. If I had

1807
01:32:49,760 --> 01:32:52,799
Speaker 6: to guess from the Department of War now with respect

1808
01:32:52,880 --> 01:32:55,000
Speaker 6: to Operation Pragmant is how not just to go after

1809
01:32:55,040 --> 01:32:58,320
Speaker 6: the conventional Runi Navy, but the much more smaller and

1810
01:32:58,640 --> 01:33:03,240
Speaker 6: more greatly first Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp Navy, which uses

1811
01:33:03,240 --> 01:33:06,840
Speaker 6: fast attack craft, underwater drones, anti ship cruise missiles. So

1812
01:33:06,880 --> 01:33:08,880
Speaker 6: the US has the opportunity to defeat this if it

1813
01:33:08,920 --> 01:33:10,920
Speaker 6: operates from range, if it is willing to take a

1814
01:33:10,920 --> 01:33:13,640
Speaker 6: few hits and then land a few major blows. But

1815
01:33:13,880 --> 01:33:16,439
Speaker 6: ultimately I think you're right when it comes to the

1816
01:33:16,439 --> 01:33:19,400
Speaker 6: balance that have passed this prologue, if the US chooses

1817
01:33:19,439 --> 01:33:22,280
Speaker 6: to come in a big way, it can actually decisively

1818
01:33:22,320 --> 01:33:26,479
Speaker 6: tip the balance and neuter the forces in the Persian Gulf.

1819
01:33:26,479 --> 01:33:28,800
Speaker 6: It could be messier now, however, which gets me to

1820
01:33:28,880 --> 01:33:31,639
Speaker 6: what my fear is, per your question, the regime will

1821
01:33:31,640 --> 01:33:36,200
Speaker 6: be able to land blows against critical energy infrastructure or

1822
01:33:36,200 --> 01:33:39,080
Speaker 6: even the American bases, given the distance, and given that

1823
01:33:39,080 --> 01:33:42,120
Speaker 6: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard cord now compared to the nineteen

1824
01:33:42,160 --> 01:33:45,600
Speaker 6: eighties as precision strikes short range ballistic missiles, many of

1825
01:33:45,640 --> 01:33:48,720
Speaker 6: which were not used actually in either the Twelve Day

1826
01:33:48,760 --> 01:33:52,240
Speaker 6: War or the April and October military exchanges between Iran

1827
01:33:52,280 --> 01:33:54,960
Speaker 6: and Israel. So the threat is the precision strike threat

1828
01:33:55,040 --> 01:34:00,880
Speaker 6: across the Persian Gulf, and second, of course American basing infrastructure,

1829
01:34:01,080 --> 01:34:03,559
Speaker 6: so not just energy and civilian targets there, but facing

1830
01:34:03,560 --> 01:34:06,840
Speaker 6: an infrastructure and third, exactly what you mentioned, which is

1831
01:34:06,880 --> 01:34:10,719
Speaker 6: resuming their medium range ballistic missile strikes against Israel, hoping

1832
01:34:10,760 --> 01:34:13,960
Speaker 6: to puncture through Israel's layered air and missile defenses.

1833
01:34:14,520 --> 01:34:16,599
Speaker 1: When we come back from break, I will ask Benham

1834
01:34:16,640 --> 01:34:21,320
Speaker 1: whether or not in his assessment, the IRGC poses a

1835
01:34:21,400 --> 01:34:23,880
Speaker 1: threat to the Lincoln or any of its strike group

1836
01:34:25,200 --> 01:34:29,120
Speaker 1: escorts or other American naval assets, and what kind of

1837
01:34:29,160 --> 01:34:32,479
Speaker 1: threat it poses to our airmen and cutter and our

1838
01:34:32,560 --> 01:34:36,960
Speaker 1: other facilities among the Gulf allies that we have. And

1839
01:34:37,160 --> 01:34:40,760
Speaker 1: to MBZ, who has been our stauncher's strongest ally other

1840
01:34:40,800 --> 01:34:42,920
Speaker 1: than Israel for many many years in the Middle East,

1841
01:34:42,960 --> 01:34:45,559
Speaker 1: and MBS who is the up and coming dominant power

1842
01:34:45,600 --> 01:34:47,320
Speaker 1: in the region. I'll ask him that after the break,

1843
01:34:47,320 --> 01:34:49,800
Speaker 1: don't go any where, stay tuned to the Good Hewitt Show.

1844
01:34:50,479 --> 01:34:53,160
Speaker 1: Welcome Back in America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. My guest from

1845
01:34:53,200 --> 01:34:56,760
Speaker 1: the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies is that foundation

1846
01:34:57,080 --> 01:35:01,200
Speaker 1: head of the Iran program there Bentham Ben Talablue, who

1847
01:35:01,240 --> 01:35:05,479
Speaker 1: you can follow the real Benham ben on X and

1848
01:35:05,520 --> 01:35:08,120
Speaker 1: I will be reposting that in this interview over at

1849
01:35:08,200 --> 01:35:10,720
Speaker 1: YouTube my YouTube channel if you want to send it

1850
01:35:10,760 --> 01:35:16,720
Speaker 1: to your friends. Benham based on your extensive contacts, give

1851
01:35:16,800 --> 01:35:19,559
Speaker 1: me what you believe is the scenario that will unfold

1852
01:35:19,600 --> 01:35:22,679
Speaker 1: within and even your time. Frange because we can't keep

1853
01:35:22,680 --> 01:35:26,400
Speaker 1: a carrier off the coast of Iran forever, and the

1854
01:35:26,439 --> 01:35:27,960
Speaker 1: Lincoln's been out for a while anyway.

1855
01:35:29,600 --> 01:35:31,760
Speaker 6: Well, the first thing I would say is, never underestimate

1856
01:35:31,800 --> 01:35:33,960
Speaker 6: the ability of the United States to spend money. There

1857
01:35:33,960 --> 01:35:36,400
Speaker 6: have been times we've had two carriers in the Persian Gulf.

1858
01:35:37,120 --> 01:35:39,760
Speaker 6: Obviously it was a very different regional threat environment in

1859
01:35:39,800 --> 01:35:42,760
Speaker 6: the Sencom aoar, in the Sencom area of responsibility, I

1860
01:35:42,800 --> 01:35:45,120
Speaker 6: should say, sorry, another five dollars in the tip shar.

1861
01:35:46,680 --> 01:35:48,559
Speaker 6: But so never say never when it comes to Uncle

1862
01:35:48,600 --> 01:35:51,320
Speaker 6: Sam being able to spend money, to build leverage, to

1863
01:35:51,400 --> 01:35:55,000
Speaker 6: generate the terms by simply amassing these forces and being

1864
01:35:55,000 --> 01:35:58,840
Speaker 6: able to politically and militarily strangle the Islamic Republic. But

1865
01:35:58,880 --> 01:36:01,080
Speaker 6: that being said, I do think we're the countdown period

1866
01:36:01,160 --> 01:36:03,800
Speaker 6: to a strike. The real question is what kind of strike?

1867
01:36:03,840 --> 01:36:06,320
Speaker 6: And this is actually where you know decision makers in

1868
01:36:06,400 --> 01:36:09,439
Speaker 6: Washington are much more tight lipt than ever before. Trump

1869
01:36:09,520 --> 01:36:11,960
Speaker 6: term two is very different than Trump term one in

1870
01:36:12,000 --> 01:36:14,599
Speaker 6: that respect. Just as an observer and someone who lives here,

1871
01:36:15,120 --> 01:36:17,040
Speaker 6: but I will tell you this, the President is keeping

1872
01:36:17,040 --> 01:36:19,400
Speaker 6: the cards close to his chest. I think the mistake

1873
01:36:19,479 --> 01:36:21,200
Speaker 6: during Trump term one, as we would focus on the

1874
01:36:21,240 --> 01:36:23,479
Speaker 6: people around him, you know, who's up, who's down, the

1875
01:36:23,520 --> 01:36:27,240
Speaker 6: kremlinology of the situation, the president, the commander in chief,

1876
01:36:27,320 --> 01:36:30,679
Speaker 6: is absolutely one hundred percent in charge. And the reason

1877
01:36:30,720 --> 01:36:32,719
Speaker 6: we don't have a strategy set yet or we haven't

1878
01:36:32,760 --> 01:36:35,120
Speaker 6: had much insight yet, is that the President is choosing

1879
01:36:35,200 --> 01:36:37,719
Speaker 6: not to reveal this. And again he could be building

1880
01:36:37,760 --> 01:36:40,679
Speaker 6: up to a situation like we had in last summer

1881
01:36:40,720 --> 01:36:43,400
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty five, where he feigns in one direction

1882
01:36:43,479 --> 01:36:45,240
Speaker 6: and goes in another. But I think we have to

1883
01:36:45,280 --> 01:36:48,679
Speaker 6: understand that more than any other president, President Trump covets

1884
01:36:48,720 --> 01:36:53,080
Speaker 6: flexibility and actually creates uncertainty in doubt both in the

1885
01:36:53,080 --> 01:36:56,360
Speaker 6: minds of allies and adversaries alike, for his and the

1886
01:36:56,479 --> 01:36:59,280
Speaker 6: US strategic benefits. So that's one reason why we're all

1887
01:36:59,320 --> 01:37:02,479
Speaker 6: still in this game and holding pattern as the US

1888
01:37:02,600 --> 01:37:05,120
Speaker 6: continues to move more assets in theater. I think at

1889
01:37:05,160 --> 01:37:07,720
Speaker 6: a very minimum, if we're going to ascribe something to

1890
01:37:07,760 --> 01:37:10,360
Speaker 6: what the President is interested in doing, it is to

1891
01:37:10,400 --> 01:37:14,360
Speaker 6: borrow a line from Machiavelli's the Prince. It is to

1892
01:37:14,560 --> 01:37:18,760
Speaker 6: satisfy and stupefy, to be able to satisfy the constituencies

1893
01:37:18,800 --> 01:37:22,280
Speaker 6: that want to strike, and to hold up that US credibility,

1894
01:37:22,280 --> 01:37:24,519
Speaker 6: that US red line to look more like Reagan on

1895
01:37:24,560 --> 01:37:28,600
Speaker 6: Iran than Obama on Iran, and then more importantly, to

1896
01:37:28,640 --> 01:37:32,280
Speaker 6: stupefy to make sure that that credibility transcends just the

1897
01:37:32,320 --> 01:37:35,240
Speaker 6: Iran paradigm, to keep the ball rolling, if you will,

1898
01:37:35,280 --> 01:37:38,839
Speaker 6: when it comes to US military wins following Venezuela, following

1899
01:37:38,880 --> 01:37:41,920
Speaker 6: Operation Midnight Hammer, rather than having this be a critical

1900
01:37:42,000 --> 01:37:46,439
Speaker 6: juncture where US credibility and capability is doubted despite the

1901
01:37:46,520 --> 01:37:49,280
Speaker 6: successes at least with the regime change at the top

1902
01:37:49,280 --> 01:37:52,519
Speaker 6: in Venezuela and at least with the counter proliferation operation

1903
01:37:52,680 --> 01:37:55,920
Speaker 6: that was Operation Midnight Hammer. So the President is looking,

1904
01:37:55,960 --> 01:38:02,640
Speaker 6: i think, to satisfy and stupefy.

1905
01:38:00,120 --> 01:38:03,400
Speaker 1: Worry about attempting to take out Ayatolahameini is that it's

1906
01:38:03,439 --> 01:38:06,320
Speaker 1: pretty easy to hide one person. It can't hide an

1907
01:38:06,360 --> 01:38:09,800
Speaker 1: oil terminal or their navy or ier GC basis. But

1908
01:38:10,479 --> 01:38:13,599
Speaker 1: in order to increase the deterrent that the President has

1909
01:38:13,640 --> 01:38:17,519
Speaker 1: painstakingly rebuilt since the collapse in Afghanistan, or President Biden

1910
01:38:17,920 --> 01:38:21,200
Speaker 1: to increase that deterrent, He's got to do something visible,

1911
01:38:21,320 --> 01:38:24,840
Speaker 1: I mean something dramatic. That's my opinion, and that I

1912
01:38:24,880 --> 01:38:27,320
Speaker 1: think he will dent the deterrence he's rebuilt if he

1913
01:38:27,360 --> 01:38:30,360
Speaker 1: doesn't do something visible and dramatic. Do you agree with me?

1914
01:38:31,280 --> 01:38:34,519
Speaker 6: I agree wholeheartedly. You know this needs to not just

1915
01:38:34,600 --> 01:38:37,519
Speaker 6: be seen, to be credible and have an escalating and

1916
01:38:37,560 --> 01:38:43,599
Speaker 6: resonating deterrent effect and credibility multiplier for America's or other

1917
01:38:43,680 --> 01:38:47,519
Speaker 6: authoritarian adversaries, not just in the region but elsewhere, but

1918
01:38:47,560 --> 01:38:50,920
Speaker 6: most importantly needs to be felt and seen by the

1919
01:38:50,960 --> 01:38:53,280
Speaker 6: Iranian people. Less we forget the reason we're in this

1920
01:38:53,360 --> 01:38:57,120
Speaker 6: situation is there has been nationwide anti regime protests, the

1921
01:38:57,160 --> 01:38:59,919
Speaker 6: most significant protests in the history of the Islamic Republic

1922
01:39:00,200 --> 01:39:03,559
Speaker 6: and the most violently repressed, not just in the forty

1923
01:39:03,560 --> 01:39:06,919
Speaker 6: seven year history of the Islamic Republic, but in the

1924
01:39:06,960 --> 01:39:09,800
Speaker 6: past century, if not century and a half, of contemporary

1925
01:39:09,840 --> 01:39:13,479
Speaker 6: Iranian history. And the President shows not once or twice,

1926
01:39:13,520 --> 01:39:17,799
Speaker 6: but based on whatever open source you're looking at, print, TV, radio,

1927
01:39:17,880 --> 01:39:21,280
Speaker 6: social media eight to nine times, has touched this issue,

1928
01:39:21,360 --> 01:39:24,799
Speaker 6: has made it a US issue by talking about holding

1929
01:39:24,840 --> 01:39:28,320
Speaker 6: the regime accountable, and therefore this is intertwined with a

1930
01:39:28,360 --> 01:39:31,280
Speaker 6: credibility issue and a deterrence issue for Washington. But I

1931
01:39:31,280 --> 01:39:33,400
Speaker 6: would push even further. I agree with the line that

1932
01:39:33,439 --> 01:39:36,559
Speaker 6: has often ascribed to Henry Kissinger that foreign policy is

1933
01:39:36,600 --> 01:39:39,680
Speaker 6: not missionary work. You know, it is not charity to

1934
01:39:39,800 --> 01:39:43,000
Speaker 6: strike the government of the Islamic Republic just because we're

1935
01:39:43,040 --> 01:39:45,200
Speaker 6: standing with the Runian people. This is a regime that

1936
01:39:45,240 --> 01:39:48,240
Speaker 6: has chanted since its inception, death to America and death

1937
01:39:48,280 --> 01:39:50,160
Speaker 6: to Israel, and has put its money where his mouth

1938
01:39:50,240 --> 01:39:52,040
Speaker 6: is for those four and a half decades.

1939
01:39:52,600 --> 01:39:54,840
Speaker 1: Okay, So I'm coming back for one more segment with

1940
01:39:54,960 --> 01:39:59,720
Speaker 1: Ben Tallablue, and when we do, we've got to find

1941
01:39:59,720 --> 01:40:04,120
Speaker 1: out it about the threat to the Lincoln, other adjacent chips, Israel,

1942
01:40:04,240 --> 01:40:07,600
Speaker 1: and whether or not Iran's terror proxies are inside the

1943
01:40:07,680 --> 01:40:10,559
Speaker 1: United States, because indeed, if we hit them hard enough,

1944
01:40:10,920 --> 01:40:15,080
Speaker 1: they'll do everything they can to hurt us. And I

1945
01:40:15,120 --> 01:40:17,599
Speaker 1: want people to be very wide eyed and awake about

1946
01:40:17,640 --> 01:40:20,679
Speaker 1: those risks. Madam's going to tell us about that after

1947
01:40:20,720 --> 01:40:23,360
Speaker 1: the break. Stay tuned here on the Salem News Channel

1948
01:40:23,360 --> 01:40:25,680
Speaker 1: and the Salem Radio Network, on our wonderful affiliates on

1949
01:40:25,800 --> 01:40:28,720
Speaker 1: q CUTT welcome back in America. I'm Hugh hewittt with that.

1950
01:40:28,960 --> 01:40:33,479
Speaker 1: Ben Talla Blue bedam General Madis when he was in

1951
01:40:33,600 --> 01:40:36,800
Speaker 1: charge of an expeditionary unit out here in Camp Pedal

1952
01:40:36,920 --> 01:40:39,320
Speaker 1: had a chief of staff, Clark Latine, who once it said,

1953
01:40:39,360 --> 01:40:42,040
Speaker 1: I wish you civilians would think about second order impacts. Well,

1954
01:40:42,040 --> 01:40:44,880
Speaker 1: I am thinking about second order impact. Can they hit

1955
01:40:44,920 --> 01:40:48,280
Speaker 1: the Lincoln, can they hit our ships? Can they hit Israel?

1956
01:40:48,320 --> 01:40:50,519
Speaker 1: And do they have sleeper sales in the United States.

1957
01:40:50,680 --> 01:40:52,519
Speaker 1: That's a lot of questions. You have the floor.

1958
01:40:54,000 --> 01:40:55,960
Speaker 6: It's a lot of questions, But I'll do my best answer.

1959
01:40:56,120 --> 01:40:59,040
Speaker 6: Certainly they can strike US bases on the opposite side

1960
01:40:59,040 --> 01:41:00,639
Speaker 6: of the Persian Gulf. At the end of the Twelve

1961
01:41:00,720 --> 01:41:03,880
Speaker 6: Day War, we saw the regime fire ballistic missiles at

1962
01:41:03,920 --> 01:41:08,160
Speaker 6: a actual raydome facility at the Alludaide base and Qatar,

1963
01:41:08,240 --> 01:41:10,760
Speaker 6: so there's a demonstrated ability to do that. We also

1964
01:41:10,880 --> 01:41:13,880
Speaker 6: know that there's the IRGC navy threat, the anti axis

1965
01:41:13,920 --> 01:41:17,320
Speaker 6: air denial, and the maritime asymmetric threat in the Persian

1966
01:41:17,320 --> 01:41:19,759
Speaker 6: Gulf and Strait of Hormones, which can go from anything

1967
01:41:19,840 --> 01:41:25,559
Speaker 6: from mining operations placing limpet mines, selective anti ship missile attacks,

1968
01:41:25,880 --> 01:41:29,240
Speaker 6: underwater drone attacks, and harassment operations that could make life

1969
01:41:29,320 --> 01:41:33,479
Speaker 6: much more challenging, but certainly not impossible either for the

1970
01:41:33,520 --> 01:41:36,080
Speaker 6: Lincoln or for our destroyers. And we need those destroyers

1971
01:41:36,080 --> 01:41:39,439
Speaker 6: in that region to bolster air and missile defense because

1972
01:41:39,439 --> 01:41:43,360
Speaker 6: these are ages enabled ballistic missile defense destroyers as well.

1973
01:41:44,040 --> 01:41:46,720
Speaker 6: But if the US chooses to operate from range, which

1974
01:41:46,760 --> 01:41:48,800
Speaker 6: is one way you can get around anti axis air

1975
01:41:48,920 --> 01:41:52,439
Speaker 6: denial capabilities, or if the US punches the regime hard

1976
01:41:52,520 --> 01:41:56,320
Speaker 6: enough and suppresses their fire in a preemptive operation, then

1977
01:41:56,680 --> 01:41:59,479
Speaker 6: there's the chance that you can significantly reduce the zone

1978
01:41:59,479 --> 01:42:02,519
Speaker 6: of impact act for the US on the opposite side

1979
01:42:02,520 --> 01:42:04,880
Speaker 6: of the Persian Gulf and in those waters that you mentioned.

1980
01:42:05,200 --> 01:42:07,679
Speaker 6: Israel is an altogether different matter. You know, Iran has

1981
01:42:07,720 --> 01:42:11,439
Speaker 6: three chains of missile bases that are underground caverns or

1982
01:42:11,760 --> 01:42:14,800
Speaker 6: underground missile bases. You know, there's the Western chain, the

1983
01:42:14,840 --> 01:42:18,280
Speaker 6: Central chain, and the Eastern chain that can fire medium

1984
01:42:18,360 --> 01:42:22,000
Speaker 6: range ballistic missiles at Israel. You know, if passes prologue,

1985
01:42:22,000 --> 01:42:24,640
Speaker 6: you know, I think about thirty people died in the

1986
01:42:24,760 --> 01:42:27,800
Speaker 6: Twelve Day War. The regime fired about five hundred and

1987
01:42:27,800 --> 01:42:31,200
Speaker 6: seventy plus medium range ballistic missiles and Israel had a

1988
01:42:31,439 --> 01:42:34,960
Speaker 6: eighty five eighty six percent interception rate, so that's fairly

1989
01:42:35,040 --> 01:42:37,439
Speaker 6: high level of success. But make no mistake that it

1990
01:42:37,479 --> 01:42:40,880
Speaker 6: did a significant amount of damage and burnt through a

1991
01:42:40,920 --> 01:42:44,559
Speaker 6: bunch of US and Israeli missile interceptors, which is one

1992
01:42:44,600 --> 01:42:46,880
Speaker 6: potential reason for the pause in the Middle East today.

1993
01:42:46,920 --> 01:42:50,120
Speaker 6: So certainly the regime is weak. Certainly though it can

1994
01:42:50,200 --> 01:42:52,960
Speaker 6: do damage despite being weak, But we still have the

1995
01:42:53,040 --> 01:42:55,360
Speaker 6: upper hand. It's about being willing to pay those costs

1996
01:42:55,400 --> 01:42:57,719
Speaker 6: upfront or distributing them over time.

1997
01:42:59,040 --> 01:43:03,679
Speaker 1: I think in the United States, let.

1998
01:43:03,520 --> 01:43:06,080
Speaker 6: Me just say this, because the changing face of Iranian

1999
01:43:06,160 --> 01:43:09,479
Speaker 6: terrorism in the US has to be taken seriously. I

2000
01:43:09,520 --> 01:43:12,240
Speaker 6: think for far too long we've had a politicized border

2001
01:43:12,240 --> 01:43:15,479
Speaker 6: debate when this should be a non partisan debate. The

2002
01:43:15,520 --> 01:43:17,880
Speaker 6: fact that you have had not just Iranians, but a

2003
01:43:17,920 --> 01:43:20,400
Speaker 6: whole host of different nationalities be able to for many

2004
01:43:20,439 --> 01:43:24,080
Speaker 6: years coming through the southern border and be undocumented could

2005
01:43:24,400 --> 01:43:27,160
Speaker 6: pose one threat vector, but it's not the only threat vector.

2006
01:43:27,439 --> 01:43:29,559
Speaker 6: If you look at the past decade and a half,

2007
01:43:29,680 --> 01:43:32,519
Speaker 6: the Islamic Republic has tried to work with everything from

2008
01:43:32,960 --> 01:43:38,679
Speaker 6: Mexican drug cartels to Eastern European mafias to Canadian biker

2009
01:43:38,760 --> 01:43:42,800
Speaker 6: gangs to try to engage in kidnapping or terrorism or

2010
01:43:42,840 --> 01:43:47,400
Speaker 6: assassination on US soil against dissidence defectors and even US

2011
01:43:47,400 --> 01:43:49,960
Speaker 6: persons and citizens. So that should be setting off the

2012
01:43:50,000 --> 01:43:52,400
Speaker 6: alarm bell as well. The fact that also on the

2013
01:43:52,400 --> 01:43:55,519
Speaker 6: anniversary of the killing of Cosm Solimani, the regime's former

2014
01:43:55,840 --> 01:43:59,200
Speaker 6: chief terrorists, which the Trump administration killed in January twenty twenty,

2015
01:43:59,479 --> 01:44:02,920
Speaker 6: his replace talked about wouldn't it be nice if Americans

2016
01:44:02,960 --> 01:44:06,640
Speaker 6: were able to carry out our operations or our activities

2017
01:44:06,720 --> 01:44:10,160
Speaker 6: for us, you know, having Americans fight Americans rather than

2018
01:44:10,720 --> 01:44:13,200
Speaker 6: you know, the Iranians pay a proxy or a gun

2019
01:44:13,200 --> 01:44:15,280
Speaker 6: for hire to kill Americans. So there is that fear

2020
01:44:15,280 --> 01:44:17,640
Speaker 6: of well of being able to ride the wave of

2021
01:44:17,720 --> 01:44:21,800
Speaker 6: lone wolf frustration that could exist in this country. And

2022
01:44:21,840 --> 01:44:24,559
Speaker 6: the third, of course, is the potential for those sleeper cells,

2023
01:44:24,600 --> 01:44:28,200
Speaker 6: either in certain communities inside the United States or the

2024
01:44:28,240 --> 01:44:30,960
Speaker 6: ability to kind of work through a whole host of

2025
01:44:30,960 --> 01:44:32,960
Speaker 6: fronts or affiliates that may not even know they are

2026
01:44:33,000 --> 01:44:36,080
Speaker 6: fronts or affiliates. Again, this is something that for d

2027
01:44:36,160 --> 01:44:38,760
Speaker 6: and I, Avril Haynes and the Biden administration talked about

2028
01:44:38,760 --> 01:44:41,479
Speaker 6: when it came to the pro Palestine protests that they

2029
01:44:41,479 --> 01:44:44,000
Speaker 6: didn't even know where some of this direction and funding

2030
01:44:44,880 --> 01:44:49,520
Speaker 6: was coming from. So those fears exist. Fortunately, law enforcement

2031
01:44:49,560 --> 01:44:52,519
Speaker 6: plus national security has done a good enough job so far.

2032
01:44:52,920 --> 01:44:56,439
Speaker 6: But good enough is not good enough for government work

2033
01:44:56,880 --> 01:44:57,639
Speaker 6: in this case.

2034
01:44:58,560 --> 01:45:01,240
Speaker 1: All right, So everyone, you've got to realize there are

2035
01:45:01,280 --> 01:45:04,200
Speaker 1: real risks to Americans and to Israelis and to our

2036
01:45:04,280 --> 01:45:08,679
Speaker 1: allies and the golf, especially UIE and Saudi Arabia. Let

2037
01:45:08,680 --> 01:45:12,200
Speaker 1: me close by asking you in terms of that Turkish

2038
01:45:12,400 --> 01:45:16,640
Speaker 1: radar in Syria that's news to me this weekend. Is

2039
01:45:16,680 --> 01:45:18,920
Speaker 1: that a real problem? I mean, do the Turks get

2040
01:45:19,000 --> 01:45:21,799
Speaker 1: upset if we blow up their radar for Syria?

2041
01:45:23,120 --> 01:45:25,200
Speaker 6: The question is do we even need to blow it up?

2042
01:45:25,439 --> 01:45:27,200
Speaker 6: Is it something that the Israelis might do or is

2043
01:45:27,240 --> 01:45:29,559
Speaker 6: it something that they be able to work around. You know,

2044
01:45:29,640 --> 01:45:32,320
Speaker 6: Turkey is no doubt trying to fast replace the Islamic

2045
01:45:32,360 --> 01:45:35,680
Speaker 6: Republic as the other Islamist leaning power in Syria. I

2046
01:45:35,680 --> 01:45:37,720
Speaker 6: think this is a real challenge for the US to

2047
01:45:37,720 --> 01:45:41,040
Speaker 6: be able to deconflict between admittedly a NATO member not

2048
01:45:41,120 --> 01:45:45,000
Speaker 6: in good standing, which is Erdowan's Turkey and our major

2049
01:45:45,040 --> 01:45:47,320
Speaker 6: partner in the region, Israel, and to make sure that

2050
01:45:47,360 --> 01:45:49,360
Speaker 6: they don't come to blows over Syria. But you know,

2051
01:45:49,400 --> 01:45:53,160
Speaker 6: make no mistake, Israel has really post October seven, punched

2052
01:45:53,160 --> 01:45:56,120
Speaker 6: through a lot a lot of assumptions we have had

2053
01:45:56,160 --> 01:45:58,559
Speaker 6: about things that could limit their room for maneuver and

2054
01:45:58,640 --> 01:46:01,639
Speaker 6: freedom for military operations. So I would say here, never

2055
01:46:01,680 --> 01:46:02,120
Speaker 6: say never.

2056
01:46:02,720 --> 01:46:04,960
Speaker 1: All Right, My last question, I am not an optimist

2057
01:46:05,000 --> 01:46:08,000
Speaker 1: about regime change. I think this is forty seven years

2058
01:46:08,000 --> 01:46:11,280
Speaker 1: of malignancy and you can't cut that tumor out absent,

2059
01:46:11,880 --> 01:46:15,160
Speaker 1: but you can certainly stunt its growth and send it backwards.

2060
01:46:15,560 --> 01:46:17,960
Speaker 1: Are you an optimist about the regime collapsing?

2061
01:46:19,880 --> 01:46:22,360
Speaker 6: Believe it or not, I'm a long term optimist because

2062
01:46:22,400 --> 01:46:24,600
Speaker 6: there is no way output through for Uncle Sam and

2063
01:46:24,640 --> 01:46:26,920
Speaker 6: the desert. There's no path out of a desert that

2064
01:46:26,960 --> 01:46:30,320
Speaker 6: does not include flipping the script on the Iatolahs in Tehran.

2065
01:46:30,400 --> 01:46:32,360
Speaker 6: There is no way to pivot to China. There's no

2066
01:46:32,400 --> 01:46:35,120
Speaker 6: way to lock down the Western hemisphere. There's no way

2067
01:46:35,160 --> 01:46:37,439
Speaker 6: to generate the credibility to deal with Putin or really

2068
01:46:37,439 --> 01:46:40,400
Speaker 6: anybody else if you come up short against the Iyatolas

2069
01:46:40,720 --> 01:46:43,320
Speaker 6: we have with the exception of Israel right now an

2070
01:46:43,439 --> 01:46:46,599
Speaker 6: important intersection in the Middle East. Again, this is not charity,

2071
01:46:46,680 --> 01:46:49,400
Speaker 6: This is not missionary work. This is strategy. We have

2072
01:46:49,680 --> 01:46:52,559
Speaker 6: fundamentally the most pro American and the most pro Israeli

2073
01:46:52,640 --> 01:46:55,599
Speaker 6: population in the heartland of the Muslim Middle East being

2074
01:46:55,680 --> 01:46:59,200
Speaker 6: ruled over and repressed by the most anti American and

2075
01:46:59,240 --> 01:47:01,320
Speaker 6: the most anti is really government in the heartland in

2076
01:47:01,360 --> 01:47:03,519
Speaker 6: the Middle East. And so long as this regime is

2077
01:47:03,520 --> 01:47:05,960
Speaker 6: in power, and so long as those ideologies are at

2078
01:47:05,960 --> 01:47:09,240
Speaker 6: the helm, a country with the amazing resources that Iran has,

2079
01:47:09,280 --> 01:47:13,040
Speaker 6: will continue to force us back in to conflict after

2080
01:47:13,160 --> 01:47:16,240
Speaker 6: conflict when we are least prepared for it. So I see,

2081
01:47:16,400 --> 01:47:18,639
Speaker 6: you know, the stars aligning. There is really no way

2082
01:47:18,680 --> 01:47:21,599
Speaker 6: out put through here. And whether it's in this current

2083
01:47:21,680 --> 01:47:24,440
Speaker 6: round or in a potential future around the Trump administration

2084
01:47:24,520 --> 01:47:26,920
Speaker 6: or future US administration, I think is going to have

2085
01:47:26,960 --> 01:47:30,000
Speaker 6: to realize that this is again not charity. This is

2086
01:47:30,000 --> 01:47:32,360
Speaker 6: not Iraq, this is not Afghanistan. There is a world

2087
01:47:32,400 --> 01:47:37,560
Speaker 6: of difference between foreign imposed regime change and foreign supported

2088
01:47:37,600 --> 01:47:41,080
Speaker 6: regime change. And for again, those strategies, those values, when

2089
01:47:41,120 --> 01:47:43,519
Speaker 6: they align, and you seldom get them to align the

2090
01:47:43,560 --> 01:47:46,280
Speaker 6: Middle East, you take that shot Bena.

2091
01:47:46,400 --> 01:47:48,519
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining me. Follow him on

2092
01:47:49,000 --> 01:47:54,320
Speaker 1: x at the real b eh nam Ben and it

2093
01:47:54,360 --> 01:47:56,519
Speaker 1: will pop up and you ought to follow him and

2094
01:47:56,560 --> 01:47:58,840
Speaker 1: the people that he follows, you ought to follow. I

2095
01:47:58,840 --> 01:48:00,800
Speaker 1: hope you'll come back as we are on the edge

2096
01:48:00,800 --> 01:48:03,519
Speaker 1: of in momentous events in the Middle East. Thank you,

2097
01:48:03,640 --> 01:48:07,920
Speaker 1: and I'm stn't Foundation for Defensive Democracies FVD dot org.

2098
01:48:07,960 --> 01:48:10,679
Speaker 1: Go and find more there. I'll be right now morning

2099
01:48:10,720 --> 01:48:13,680
Speaker 1: glory and emigration and Merga. I'm Hugh Hewlett, joined by

2100
01:48:13,720 --> 01:48:17,479
Speaker 1: Admiral Mark Montgomery, retired Rear Admiral from the United States Navy.

2101
01:48:18,000 --> 01:48:21,080
Speaker 1: He is with the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. Admiral.

2102
01:48:21,200 --> 01:48:24,559
Speaker 1: It was just reported to Actos that Iran has said

2103
01:48:24,640 --> 01:48:26,559
Speaker 1: no way, not now, not ever, and never will we

2104
01:48:26,600 --> 01:48:28,960
Speaker 1: give up whatever you want, President Trump, and they've cut

2105
01:48:29,000 --> 01:48:32,439
Speaker 1: off all communications. It's also reporting President Trump gave them

2106
01:48:32,439 --> 01:48:34,800
Speaker 1: a twenty four hour ultimatum. I can't confirm that that's

2107
01:48:34,800 --> 01:48:37,120
Speaker 1: what Dacchios is reporting. What do you think is going

2108
01:48:37,160 --> 01:48:37,559
Speaker 1: to happen?

2109
01:48:39,160 --> 01:48:41,120
Speaker 3: Well, look, the President has done a great job of,

2110
01:48:41,520 --> 01:48:44,800
Speaker 3: you know, bringing together his offensive cost and position capabilities.

2111
01:48:44,840 --> 01:48:47,720
Speaker 3: That's the not just the aircraft carrier and its air wing,

2112
01:48:47,800 --> 01:48:50,519
Speaker 3: but the three destroyers and their Tommac missiles. I mean,

2113
01:48:50,640 --> 01:48:52,559
Speaker 3: I don't know this for a fact, but I'm going

2114
01:48:52,600 --> 01:48:56,160
Speaker 3: to bet some money that there's a high class SSG

2115
01:48:56,439 --> 01:49:00,160
Speaker 3: and you know got you know, Tomahawk equipped submarine with

2116
01:49:00,200 --> 01:49:03,439
Speaker 3: lots of Dalmaks on it somewhere close enough in the

2117
01:49:03,640 --> 01:49:08,560
Speaker 3: Arabian Gulf Arabian Sea. And then we've got F fifteen's

2118
01:49:08,960 --> 01:49:13,080
Speaker 3: and other Air Force fighter squadrons in al Udeid and

2119
01:49:13,120 --> 01:49:15,519
Speaker 3: Qatar and other places in the Middle East. And of

2120
01:49:15,520 --> 01:49:17,840
Speaker 3: course we've got our B two's ready to go from

2121
01:49:17,880 --> 01:49:20,840
Speaker 3: the continent of the United States. That is collectively enough

2122
01:49:20,840 --> 01:49:23,599
Speaker 3: cost and position. The other thing he's done is begin

2123
01:49:23,680 --> 01:49:28,200
Speaker 3: to maneuver back into theater sufficient army air defense systems

2124
01:49:28,479 --> 01:49:31,400
Speaker 3: to begin to protect our eighteen to twenty spots where

2125
01:49:31,520 --> 01:49:37,960
Speaker 3: US forces are spread throughout Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE.

2126
01:49:38,800 --> 01:49:40,880
Speaker 3: We can't defend all of them all the time, all

2127
01:49:40,920 --> 01:49:43,559
Speaker 3: at once, but we can defend some of the larger

2128
01:49:43,640 --> 01:49:48,080
Speaker 3: concentration areas against an runting attacks. So the President's creating

2129
01:49:48,120 --> 01:49:52,080
Speaker 3: the conditions where he can impose his will on Iran.

2130
01:49:53,320 --> 01:49:59,120
Speaker 1: Now, Admiral the National security advisor equivalent in Iran has

2131
01:49:59,160 --> 01:50:01,920
Speaker 1: said any attack on anything in Iran will bring a

2132
01:50:01,960 --> 01:50:05,719
Speaker 1: response directed at the United States, but also at Israel.

2133
01:50:05,960 --> 01:50:08,440
Speaker 1: Do you think Israel can stand up to a fusilade

2134
01:50:09,040 --> 01:50:10,680
Speaker 1: like June again.

2135
01:50:11,160 --> 01:50:13,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, So let's be clear. If it's the US alone

2136
01:50:13,960 --> 01:50:17,280
Speaker 3: striking them, the absolute last thing I would do if

2137
01:50:17,280 --> 01:50:20,800
Speaker 3: I was an Iranian planner is attack Israel because I

2138
01:50:20,920 --> 01:50:24,960
Speaker 3: just invited an equivalent or larger size of F thirty

2139
01:50:25,000 --> 01:50:27,920
Speaker 3: five fifteen fleet to come visit me the next day

2140
01:50:28,160 --> 01:50:30,000
Speaker 3: and the day after and the day after and the

2141
01:50:30,080 --> 01:50:34,640
Speaker 3: day after, because with US refueling, it's unlimited, and you know,

2142
01:50:35,320 --> 01:50:37,479
Speaker 3: until the United States and Israel say, you know, and

2143
01:50:37,520 --> 01:50:41,800
Speaker 3: we've had enough. You know, so again, if they do that,

2144
01:50:42,200 --> 01:50:44,640
Speaker 3: they're gonna get some serious cost of position. Now they

2145
01:50:44,640 --> 01:50:46,680
Speaker 3: may well do it, and then your question is is

2146
01:50:46,680 --> 01:50:51,600
Speaker 3: there enough air defense in Israel? And the answer is,

2147
01:50:51,640 --> 01:50:53,559
Speaker 3: you know, they'll be challenged like they were last time.

2148
01:50:53,880 --> 01:50:57,719
Speaker 3: You know, missiles got through. They have great systems from

2149
01:50:57,840 --> 01:51:00,240
Speaker 3: Iron Dome to David Slang to Arrow to the US

2150
01:51:00,360 --> 01:51:02,800
Speaker 3: SM three's on the Ages class ships off in the

2151
01:51:02,800 --> 01:51:07,919
Speaker 3: Eastern Mediterranean and the remaining THAD elements. US bad elements.

2152
01:51:08,320 --> 01:51:10,720
Speaker 3: There's a lot of missile defense there, Hue, but some

2153
01:51:10,840 --> 01:51:14,559
Speaker 3: will get through. But Israel is a resilient country. They

2154
01:51:14,560 --> 01:51:18,120
Speaker 3: can take that, and their air force can impose maximum

2155
01:51:18,160 --> 01:51:19,559
Speaker 3: cost on Iran for doing it.

2156
01:51:20,680 --> 01:51:25,080
Speaker 1: Do is our carrier at risk or destroyers at risk?

2157
01:51:25,320 --> 01:51:27,680
Speaker 1: And where do you put on the risk level? The

2158
01:51:27,920 --> 01:51:29,960
Speaker 1: basin cutter and throughout the region.

2159
01:51:31,400 --> 01:51:34,920
Speaker 3: So the carrier and the destroyers have a high quality

2160
01:51:34,920 --> 01:51:37,519
Speaker 3: air defense systems, both point defense for the carrier and

2161
01:51:37,560 --> 01:51:40,439
Speaker 3: the destroyers and an area air defense for the destroyers

2162
01:51:40,439 --> 01:51:43,040
Speaker 3: which would encapsolute the carrier. And of course the air

2163
01:51:43,040 --> 01:51:46,800
Speaker 3: wing provides air defense against drones and against cruise missiles,

2164
01:51:46,800 --> 01:51:49,639
Speaker 3: probably not against ballistic missiles. So all of that together

2165
01:51:49,760 --> 01:51:52,639
Speaker 3: makes them say it makes them relatively secure. You never

2166
01:51:52,680 --> 01:51:55,200
Speaker 3: want to be arrogant enough to say nothing can hit me,

2167
01:51:55,680 --> 01:51:58,200
Speaker 3: and you need to plan properly and execute properly. But

2168
01:51:58,240 --> 01:51:59,920
Speaker 3: I think they're saying, you know, if you look back

2169
01:52:00,280 --> 01:52:05,240
Speaker 3: at literally several hundred crews, ballistic missiles and several hundred

2170
01:52:05,360 --> 01:52:08,639
Speaker 3: drones launched against our ships in the Red Sea operations

2171
01:52:08,640 --> 01:52:12,000
Speaker 3: over two years, none were hit. So we are good,

2172
01:52:12,800 --> 01:52:15,200
Speaker 3: but we shouldn't be arrogant. The bases are a different issue.

2173
01:52:15,840 --> 01:52:19,920
Speaker 3: Que they can and will be hit if the Runtians

2174
01:52:19,920 --> 01:52:24,559
Speaker 3: can figure out which bases have the most porous air

2175
01:52:24,600 --> 01:52:27,200
Speaker 3: defense or non existent air defense around them, because I

2176
01:52:27,200 --> 01:52:29,160
Speaker 3: don't think we can defend all of them at all

2177
01:52:29,200 --> 01:52:29,559
Speaker 3: the time.

2178
01:52:30,360 --> 01:52:34,080
Speaker 1: And how many different would you guess how many different

2179
01:52:35,360 --> 01:52:39,920
Speaker 1: strikes can be executed within the initiation first wave? How

2180
01:52:39,960 --> 01:52:44,680
Speaker 1: many targets can we expect to disable or destroy in

2181
01:52:44,760 --> 01:52:45,360
Speaker 1: a first strike?

2182
01:52:46,479 --> 01:52:48,240
Speaker 3: I mean, there's so many. There's a lot that goes

2183
01:52:48,280 --> 01:52:49,920
Speaker 3: into that. So I'll just say, you know a lot

2184
01:52:49,920 --> 01:52:53,679
Speaker 3: of targets take multiple aim points. How many B twos

2185
01:52:53,720 --> 01:52:55,080
Speaker 3: do you want to involve? Do you want to really

2186
01:52:55,080 --> 01:52:57,960
Speaker 3: stretch your B two you know, to use everything that's

2187
01:52:58,000 --> 01:53:00,559
Speaker 3: not involved in your nuclears set aside. You know, some

2188
01:53:00,640 --> 01:53:02,600
Speaker 3: of the B twos are reserved for twenty four to

2189
01:53:02,640 --> 01:53:05,320
Speaker 3: seven nuclear missions, you know that kind of stuff. So,

2190
01:53:05,439 --> 01:53:07,240
Speaker 3: because the B twos can do a lot of striking.

2191
01:53:07,520 --> 01:53:09,360
Speaker 3: But what I would do is I do a deliberate

2192
01:53:09,520 --> 01:53:12,880
Speaker 3: several hundred strikes a day. You know, two to three

2193
01:53:12,920 --> 01:53:15,040
Speaker 3: to four hundred. We could go up to eight hundred

2194
01:53:15,040 --> 01:53:17,200
Speaker 3: one thousand if we wanted, but two to three four hundred.

2195
01:53:17,200 --> 01:53:19,760
Speaker 3: But dudover sustained ten or twelve day period where you're

2196
01:53:19,800 --> 01:53:23,080
Speaker 3: constantly reassessing where did they move, what did they flex?

2197
01:53:23,160 --> 01:53:24,960
Speaker 3: What do you show? Because what we're going to try

2198
01:53:24,960 --> 01:53:26,960
Speaker 3: to do, my guess is our target set will be

2199
01:53:27,400 --> 01:53:31,280
Speaker 3: knock out their ballistic missile inventory plus the ability to

2200
01:53:31,280 --> 01:53:35,000
Speaker 3: build future ballistic missiles, knock out their drone inventory plus

2201
01:53:35,040 --> 01:53:37,360
Speaker 3: their ability to build future drones. Knock out their crewis

2202
01:53:37,400 --> 01:53:40,760
Speaker 3: missile inventory and that production capability and capacity. That's what

2203
01:53:40,800 --> 01:53:42,920
Speaker 3: I would take out first. There might be a little

2204
01:53:42,920 --> 01:53:46,800
Speaker 3: bit of IRGC leadership strikes involved as well, but I

2205
01:53:46,800 --> 01:53:49,160
Speaker 3: would really go for that production something that is rarely

2206
01:53:49,200 --> 01:53:51,080
Speaker 3: started to work over in the Twelve Day War but

2207
01:53:51,120 --> 01:53:52,559
Speaker 3: did not complete.

2208
01:53:52,840 --> 01:53:55,320
Speaker 1: Now, Bro, you were the executive director of the cyber

2209
01:53:55,439 --> 01:54:00,800
Speaker 1: Slarium when it was in play. Do the Iranians an

2210
01:54:00,840 --> 01:54:04,160
Speaker 1: offensive cyber capability that can be directed at the homeland?

2211
01:54:05,600 --> 01:54:08,439
Speaker 3: Yes, But so the yes is they could do something,

2212
01:54:08,920 --> 01:54:12,680
Speaker 3: but this is not China or Russia. They can do

2213
01:54:12,960 --> 01:54:15,800
Speaker 3: denial of service operations, minor things. I don't think they

2214
01:54:15,800 --> 01:54:20,280
Speaker 3: could do major power system disruptions, and they've tried hard

2215
01:54:20,320 --> 01:54:24,000
Speaker 3: against Israel and done again minor things but not major.

2216
01:54:24,040 --> 01:54:27,479
Speaker 3: In things I think they would struggle against US to

2217
01:54:27,600 --> 01:54:30,720
Speaker 3: do a major disruption. The countries that can do that

2218
01:54:30,840 --> 01:54:36,120
Speaker 3: are you know, the US, Israel, China, Russia. I don't

2219
01:54:36,160 --> 01:54:38,120
Speaker 3: put a run on that list. That doesn't mean they

2220
01:54:38,160 --> 01:54:41,200
Speaker 3: can't do They can disrupt, you know, do minor disruptions,

2221
01:54:42,080 --> 01:54:45,240
Speaker 3: things that make you know, one water system out here

2222
01:54:45,320 --> 01:54:47,360
Speaker 3: or one water system out there, But they're not going

2223
01:54:47,400 --> 01:54:49,200
Speaker 3: to be able to do I think that electrical power

2224
01:54:49,200 --> 01:54:51,920
Speaker 3: grid takedown that effects like a major city.

2225
01:54:52,560 --> 01:54:54,440
Speaker 1: Now, I've had a lot of your colleagues on from

2226
01:54:54,440 --> 01:54:57,240
Speaker 1: the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies in the last few weeks.

2227
01:54:57,640 --> 01:55:01,560
Speaker 1: They have never not been in the nation and terrorism business.

2228
01:55:01,960 --> 01:55:04,760
Speaker 1: Have you ever founded in your ris to study what

2229
01:55:04,920 --> 01:55:08,160
Speaker 1: potential they might have either directly or indirectly through their

2230
01:55:08,200 --> 01:55:09,640
Speaker 1: proxies in the United States?

2231
01:55:11,000 --> 01:55:14,760
Speaker 3: Well, certainly, I mean both Department of Defense friends of mine,

2232
01:55:14,760 --> 01:55:17,360
Speaker 3: but also people here at FDD you are under threat

2233
01:55:17,520 --> 01:55:25,040
Speaker 3: from Iran. Iran absolutely practices overseas assassinations against their own people,

2234
01:55:25,120 --> 01:55:31,320
Speaker 3: their own you know, uh, overseas activists, protesters, dissidents, but

2235
01:55:31,480 --> 01:55:35,560
Speaker 3: also against Americans they hold at risk. So the president

2236
01:55:35,840 --> 01:55:38,840
Speaker 3: is one they the President's on an Iranian allegedly on

2237
01:55:38,880 --> 01:55:43,160
Speaker 3: an Iranian kill list. You know Frank mcgeneral McKenzie, General Millie,

2238
01:55:43,400 --> 01:55:48,560
Speaker 3: you know Secretary Esper, John Bolton, Matt Pottinger, you know

2239
01:55:48,600 --> 01:55:52,000
Speaker 3: the former, the leadership from the Nationcarity, leadership from Trump

2240
01:55:52,040 --> 01:55:55,360
Speaker 3: forty five or broadly on these lists, which is why

2241
01:55:55,400 --> 01:55:59,000
Speaker 3: they need security details and protection, and the President among

2242
01:55:59,120 --> 01:56:01,920
Speaker 3: most of all, needs to be protected against them. But

2243
01:56:02,040 --> 01:56:04,480
Speaker 3: I think it's much more likely that if the President

2244
01:56:04,480 --> 01:56:07,480
Speaker 3: decided to do something about the Supreme Leader, that would

2245
01:56:07,480 --> 01:56:09,240
Speaker 3: happen before something happened to the president.

2246
01:56:09,920 --> 01:56:14,200
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, you were in uniform when the war against

2247
01:56:14,280 --> 01:56:18,840
Speaker 1: Libya was undertaken, and that war brought down Libya. I

2248
01:56:18,880 --> 01:56:20,800
Speaker 1: don't know that you were in the service when the

2249
01:56:20,840 --> 01:56:23,560
Speaker 1: war against Serbia was undertaken. That war brought it down

2250
01:56:23,800 --> 01:56:27,480
Speaker 1: ken An air campaign exclusively caused the regime to collapse,

2251
01:56:27,520 --> 01:56:29,520
Speaker 1: in your opinion in Iran because I don't think so,

2252
01:56:29,600 --> 01:56:30,920
Speaker 1: but I don't know enough.

2253
01:56:31,600 --> 01:56:33,880
Speaker 3: So I participated in both of those, and i'd say

2254
01:56:33,880 --> 01:56:34,440
Speaker 3: the answers.

2255
01:56:34,520 --> 01:56:34,600
Speaker 6: No.

2256
01:56:34,920 --> 01:56:37,480
Speaker 3: I mean, I just think the IRGC is one hundred

2257
01:56:37,480 --> 01:56:40,560
Speaker 3: and one hundred and twenty five hundred fifty thousand strong.

2258
01:56:41,120 --> 01:56:43,000
Speaker 3: They're not going to go down. I mean, most of

2259
01:56:43,000 --> 01:56:49,440
Speaker 3: those guys understand that if the opposition takes over, their

2260
01:56:50,040 --> 01:56:52,880
Speaker 3: life expectancy is going to shorten dramatically, So they're going

2261
01:56:52,920 --> 01:56:55,160
Speaker 3: to fight, stand and fight. So that would be a

2262
01:56:55,200 --> 01:56:58,720
Speaker 3: lot of a lot of costant position from the air

2263
01:56:59,320 --> 01:57:02,800
Speaker 3: against target mobile ground targets. That's going to be very hard.

2264
01:57:02,840 --> 01:57:04,720
Speaker 3: So I think it's very hard. Do I think we

2265
01:57:04,760 --> 01:57:10,120
Speaker 3: can create conditions where it's where the governing mechanisms are weakened, Yes,

2266
01:57:10,760 --> 01:57:12,880
Speaker 3: but I think it's going to take a lot more.

2267
01:57:13,640 --> 01:57:15,680
Speaker 3: I think we have to do. Uh, there's gonna have

2268
01:57:15,680 --> 01:57:17,520
Speaker 3: to be a lot more weakening. Personally. Before I did

2269
01:57:17,880 --> 01:57:20,800
Speaker 3: this air campaign, I would do three to six months

2270
01:57:21,280 --> 01:57:25,840
Speaker 3: of strangulation of their fossil fuel sales. I would grab,

2271
01:57:25,880 --> 01:57:32,560
Speaker 3: I would embargo and seize every shadow Fleet ship bringing

2272
01:57:32,600 --> 01:57:35,720
Speaker 3: oil from Iran to China. I would put a prize

2273
01:57:35,720 --> 01:57:37,040
Speaker 3: crew on it and take it back to the United

2274
01:57:37,080 --> 01:57:42,360
Speaker 3: States as as a prize, as our prize. I I

2275
01:57:42,400 --> 01:57:46,200
Speaker 3: think that we should put the economic pain onto Iran,

2276
01:57:46,280 --> 01:57:49,960
Speaker 3: weaken the regime further, and then do the air campaign.

2277
01:57:51,040 --> 01:57:52,680
Speaker 1: Now, Admeral, I don't know if you can stand on

2278
01:57:52,760 --> 01:57:55,040
Speaker 1: the segment. If you can tell Duyne and we'll go this.

2279
01:57:55,200 --> 01:57:58,760
Speaker 1: But would you answer for me. Uh Karj Island has

2280
01:57:58,840 --> 01:58:01,280
Speaker 1: never been on a target list. Why is that?

2281
01:58:03,520 --> 01:58:06,600
Speaker 3: I don't let's separate. Has it been our target list

2282
01:58:06,640 --> 01:58:09,640
Speaker 3: for us as Have we actually executed a strike? In

2283
01:58:09,680 --> 01:58:11,080
Speaker 3: other words, do I think it's targeted?

2284
01:58:11,160 --> 01:58:11,360
Speaker 2: Yes?

2285
01:58:11,440 --> 01:58:16,000
Speaker 3: Do I think that it's been struck? No, I'm not

2286
01:58:16,080 --> 01:58:19,280
Speaker 3: certain why. I've never been in a political discussion we're

2287
01:58:19,320 --> 01:58:22,000
Speaker 3: told not to strike it. I just feel that, like

2288
01:58:22,320 --> 01:58:25,000
Speaker 3: when we're doing our cost and position back in nineteen

2289
01:58:25,000 --> 01:58:27,600
Speaker 3: eighty eight, we did cost a position after the Iraq

2290
01:58:27,680 --> 01:58:32,000
Speaker 3: you know, the oil the oil ships being sung. We

2291
01:58:32,080 --> 01:58:35,040
Speaker 3: went after their naval ships to punish them for their

2292
01:58:35,080 --> 01:58:35,960
Speaker 3: illegal behaviors.

2293
01:58:36,520 --> 01:58:38,920
Speaker 1: Operation Praying Man. I got to go to break on

2294
01:58:39,000 --> 01:58:41,440
Speaker 1: the Saale News channel. I will find out if Fadmal

2295
01:58:41,520 --> 01:58:44,640
Speaker 1: Montgomery can stay with us. Continue watching Town news channel,

2296
01:58:44,640 --> 01:58:46,560
Speaker 1: stay tuned to this radio station if being in a car,

2297
01:58:47,080 --> 01:58:49,040
Speaker 1: If you can, you'll come back after the break. I'll

2298
01:58:49,080 --> 01:58:51,520
Speaker 1: ask him more questions like those I've been asking. Am

2299
01:58:51,600 --> 01:58:55,960
Speaker 1: stay tuned, Welcome back America, per I. Mark Montgomery, retarding

2300
01:58:56,200 --> 01:58:58,440
Speaker 1: States Navy has stayed with me a senior fellow at

2301
01:58:58,440 --> 01:59:02,320
Speaker 1: the Foundation for the Defensive Demand Inocracy. So, Admiral, you've

2302
01:59:02,400 --> 01:59:05,720
Speaker 1: followed Donald Trump as I followed him through the news media.

2303
01:59:06,000 --> 01:59:08,040
Speaker 1: Maybe you've talked with him off the record. I don't know,

2304
01:59:08,560 --> 01:59:10,440
Speaker 1: what do you think he's going to do When he

2305
01:59:10,480 --> 01:59:14,200
Speaker 1: issued a twenty four hour ultimatum that the Iranians turned out,

2306
01:59:14,240 --> 01:59:15,800
Speaker 1: I have my guess, but what do you think?

2307
01:59:17,360 --> 01:59:19,480
Speaker 3: So I think that means he's eventually going to strike,

2308
01:59:20,360 --> 01:59:24,200
Speaker 3: I know, and not three months from now, but within

2309
01:59:24,240 --> 01:59:26,480
Speaker 3: the next thirty days, because I look, I hope it

2310
01:59:26,520 --> 01:59:29,280
Speaker 3: isn't at twenty three hours fifty nine minutes we hit him.

2311
01:59:29,280 --> 01:59:31,880
Speaker 3: I mean, and he did get that one twenty four

2312
01:59:31,880 --> 01:59:34,720
Speaker 3: hour one and then the Israeli struck within it, but

2313
01:59:34,760 --> 01:59:38,160
Speaker 3: that was Israeli forces. You know that what kind of

2314
01:59:38,160 --> 01:59:41,200
Speaker 3: on his timeline. I hope that he and General raising

2315
01:59:41,280 --> 01:59:43,440
Speaker 3: kine are Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, have had a

2316
01:59:43,440 --> 01:59:46,560
Speaker 3: discussion about how, you know, we can't just go at

2317
01:59:46,560 --> 01:59:49,800
Speaker 3: the exact moment he said we would go, because that's

2318
01:59:49,920 --> 01:59:54,120
Speaker 3: alerting a otherwise not that consequential defense system that someone's coming.

2319
01:59:55,080 --> 01:59:57,840
Speaker 3: So my guess is that you know, he'll do something

2320
01:59:57,880 --> 01:59:59,800
Speaker 3: at the twenty four hour period, maybe some cost of

2321
02:00:00,000 --> 02:00:05,760
Speaker 3: isition through embargo operations like I mentioned, but eventually you know, Hugh,

2322
02:00:05,800 --> 02:00:07,720
Speaker 3: I think we're going to strike him. I think he's pissed.

2323
02:00:08,840 --> 02:00:13,160
Speaker 1: So talk me through the best case scenario and the

2324
02:00:13,200 --> 02:00:15,960
Speaker 1: worst case scenario from your perspective, Admiral Montgomery.

2325
02:00:16,840 --> 02:00:19,840
Speaker 3: So, I think the best case scenario is a well

2326
02:00:19,840 --> 02:00:23,360
Speaker 3: thought out, deliberate ten to twelve days strike along with Israel.

2327
02:00:23,440 --> 02:00:25,880
Speaker 3: Israel might as well be in it with us, because

2328
02:00:25,920 --> 02:00:27,960
Speaker 3: as you as we alluded to in the previous segment,

2329
02:00:28,400 --> 02:00:30,760
Speaker 3: it's you know, in it or not. They're probably going

2330
02:00:30,840 --> 02:00:33,360
Speaker 3: to be the receiver of, you know, a lot of

2331
02:00:33,360 --> 02:00:35,760
Speaker 3: ballistic missiles, so might as well be in it from

2332
02:00:35,800 --> 02:00:40,720
Speaker 3: the get go. But a well orchestrated, you know, ten

2333
02:00:40,800 --> 02:00:47,040
Speaker 3: twelve day campaign that really removes the Iranian ballistic cruise

2334
02:00:47,240 --> 02:00:51,080
Speaker 3: in missile and drone production facilities and their existing inventory.

2335
02:00:53,080 --> 02:00:55,960
Speaker 3: And then you know, if there are legitimate nuclear targets remaining,

2336
02:00:56,000 --> 02:00:58,320
Speaker 3: I'd hit those as well, I don't. I think we

2337
02:00:58,400 --> 02:01:00,480
Speaker 3: in the Israelis took care of that, and anything that

2338
02:01:00,520 --> 02:01:02,800
Speaker 3: we didn't take care of is a is hidden in

2339
02:01:02,800 --> 02:01:04,280
Speaker 3: a way that would be hard for us to hit.

2340
02:01:06,440 --> 02:01:08,440
Speaker 3: So you know, I'm not going to count too much

2341
02:01:08,480 --> 02:01:10,680
Speaker 3: on that. And then, as we alluded to earlier, there's

2342
02:01:10,680 --> 02:01:13,760
Speaker 3: a decision on what type of senior leadership cost a

2343
02:01:13,840 --> 02:01:17,520
Speaker 3: position you do. Do you try to kill the supreme leader?

2344
02:01:17,600 --> 02:01:20,640
Speaker 3: Do you just work over their senior leadership? And boy,

2345
02:01:20,640 --> 02:01:23,360
Speaker 3: they got worked over last year in the Twelve Day War.

2346
02:01:23,880 --> 02:01:26,320
Speaker 3: You know, those were big target sets for the Israelis

2347
02:01:26,360 --> 02:01:29,200
Speaker 3: and they did some serious damage to the leadership of

2348
02:01:29,280 --> 02:01:31,040
Speaker 3: almost all these organizations.

2349
02:01:31,560 --> 02:01:34,600
Speaker 1: Would you, if you were advising them, advise him to

2350
02:01:34,680 --> 02:01:37,720
Speaker 1: destroy the oil export industry because it seems to me

2351
02:01:37,760 --> 02:01:40,560
Speaker 1: the IRGC has no other source of hard currency with

2352
02:01:40,600 --> 02:01:43,480
Speaker 1: which to pay the people who depend upon them to

2353
02:01:43,520 --> 02:01:44,000
Speaker 1: be paid.

2354
02:01:45,680 --> 02:01:50,920
Speaker 3: I wouldn't, but that's because I say, grab the illegal ships,

2355
02:01:51,520 --> 02:01:55,520
Speaker 3: you know, the shadow fleet ships delivering the fossil fuel.

2356
02:01:55,840 --> 02:01:57,440
Speaker 3: I would go at it that way. I think hitting

2357
02:01:57,480 --> 02:01:59,880
Speaker 3: something that you then have to rebuild as your recon

2358
02:02:00,040 --> 02:02:03,800
Speaker 3: stituting a country, you know, that's that's that's an expensive endeavor.

2359
02:02:04,000 --> 02:02:06,000
Speaker 3: But I look at Ukraine today, or I look at

2360
02:02:06,640 --> 02:02:08,840
Speaker 3: you know, a rock in two thousand and seven, in

2361
02:02:08,880 --> 02:02:12,240
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight, you know I would not want

2362
02:02:12,280 --> 02:02:16,240
Speaker 3: to impose that that rebuilding costs, and I would instead

2363
02:02:16,840 --> 02:02:17,960
Speaker 3: try to grab the ships.

2364
02:02:18,840 --> 02:02:21,320
Speaker 1: Okay, what is the worst case scenario so that people

2365
02:02:21,400 --> 02:02:24,840
Speaker 1: are fully aware. I'm aware of threats to sailors, soldiers, deirmen,

2366
02:02:24,920 --> 02:02:28,640
Speaker 1: and marines. I want the audience to hear you talk

2367
02:02:28,680 --> 02:02:29,080
Speaker 1: about that.

2368
02:02:30,520 --> 02:02:33,000
Speaker 3: Well, look, I mean they will be they will fire

2369
02:02:33,360 --> 02:02:36,600
Speaker 3: at some point. This is an existential threat to the

2370
02:02:36,640 --> 02:02:40,760
Speaker 3: regime there, and they will fire everything they have and

2371
02:02:40,920 --> 02:02:43,960
Speaker 3: they have chemical weapons. You know, they have used chemical

2372
02:02:43,960 --> 02:02:46,480
Speaker 3: weapons in the past. So our forces will need to

2373
02:02:46,520 --> 02:02:50,120
Speaker 3: be ready for everything. And so you know, I'm from

2374
02:02:50,160 --> 02:02:52,600
Speaker 3: the school, you know, you have to assume something could

2375
02:02:52,640 --> 02:02:55,080
Speaker 3: get through, So you have to have maximum defenses up.

2376
02:02:55,120 --> 02:02:57,680
Speaker 3: You have to you have to establish defensive positions after

2377
02:02:57,680 --> 02:03:00,000
Speaker 3: you do your strikes. You have to get everything right.

2378
02:03:01,000 --> 02:03:03,920
Speaker 3: You look, our officers, I'm not worried. They're not arrogant.

2379
02:03:03,960 --> 02:03:08,240
Speaker 3: They're they they're looking and managing risk properly. The ones

2380
02:03:08,240 --> 02:03:09,920
Speaker 3: who are going to be challenged are the ones with

2381
02:03:09,960 --> 02:03:13,560
Speaker 3: a fixed GPS. Those are the airfields some of our

2382
02:03:13,600 --> 02:03:16,640
Speaker 3: troop concentration areas. You know, we're really going to have

2383
02:03:16,680 --> 02:03:18,840
Speaker 3: to defend those well, and they're gonna have to be

2384
02:03:18,880 --> 02:03:21,000
Speaker 3: ready for any kind of strike. And you know, we

2385
02:03:21,080 --> 02:03:23,160
Speaker 3: have tough soldiers, but you know, in the end of

2386
02:03:23,520 --> 02:03:26,640
Speaker 3: you know, ballistic missiles of you know, it's going mocked

2387
02:03:26,720 --> 02:03:29,400
Speaker 3: six and weighs a couple thousand pounds. It's going to

2388
02:03:29,480 --> 02:03:30,360
Speaker 3: do some damage.

2389
02:03:30,920 --> 02:03:34,760
Speaker 1: I remind people that when they targeted Alasad Air Base

2390
02:03:34,920 --> 02:03:37,280
Speaker 1: in the aftermath of the killing of soul Money, they

2391
02:03:37,320 --> 02:03:40,360
Speaker 1: hit it. They actually hit it. So their missiles are

2392
02:03:40,400 --> 02:03:43,360
Speaker 1: not the junk that Saddam as saying had in nineteen

2393
02:03:43,400 --> 02:03:45,160
Speaker 1: ninety one. How many of those do they have?

2394
02:03:47,280 --> 02:03:49,680
Speaker 3: Well, that's an interesting thing. So Israel did some damage

2395
02:03:49,680 --> 02:03:51,880
Speaker 3: to that and they fired a ton you know. By

2396
02:03:51,960 --> 02:03:56,600
Speaker 3: all reports, I think that forty to fifty percent were

2397
02:03:56,680 --> 02:03:59,560
Speaker 3: either expended or destroyed in the last attacks. And we

2398
02:03:59,600 --> 02:04:02,280
Speaker 3: have done a pretty good job and is raised in

2399
02:04:02,320 --> 02:04:05,640
Speaker 3: a good job trying to prevent the reconstruct, you know,

2400
02:04:05,760 --> 02:04:08,800
Speaker 3: the replenishment of that. But you know, the Chinese have

2401
02:04:08,840 --> 02:04:12,040
Speaker 3: been a little duplicitous in this, illegally shipping some moting,

2402
02:04:12,120 --> 02:04:16,440
Speaker 3: some of the other chemicals and fuel necessary for some

2403
02:04:16,520 --> 02:04:21,240
Speaker 3: of the weapons. So they are reconstituting slightly, you know,

2404
02:04:21,280 --> 02:04:23,440
Speaker 3: but this is going to be in the high hundreds, right,

2405
02:04:23,680 --> 02:04:25,920
Speaker 3: the totality of these numbers, and the drones are much

2406
02:04:26,000 --> 02:04:29,720
Speaker 3: higher numbers. But on the cruise and ballistic missile view,

2407
02:04:29,800 --> 02:04:30,080
Speaker 3: that's a.

2408
02:04:30,080 --> 02:04:33,520
Speaker 1: Lot can the drums delivered chemical weapons?

2409
02:04:35,960 --> 02:04:38,880
Speaker 3: I have not seen that, even in Russia or elsewhere

2410
02:04:38,920 --> 02:04:42,000
Speaker 3: that doesn't But that's the answer is could they I'm

2411
02:04:42,040 --> 02:04:44,840
Speaker 3: almost sure they could have they I have not seen that.

2412
02:04:45,680 --> 02:04:48,960
Speaker 1: Is there any scenario in the front of your mind,

2413
02:04:49,000 --> 02:04:51,480
Speaker 1: not some science fiction novel, but anything in the front

2414
02:04:51,480 --> 02:04:55,080
Speaker 1: of your mind that would lead to President Trump deploying

2415
02:04:55,120 --> 02:04:56,839
Speaker 1: troops in Iran?

2416
02:04:59,040 --> 02:05:01,040
Speaker 3: Not in the front of my mind. Look, you asked

2417
02:05:01,080 --> 02:05:03,320
Speaker 3: worst case. I mean, we could get into some kind

2418
02:05:03,360 --> 02:05:06,360
Speaker 3: of campaign where damage is inflicted on us that the

2419
02:05:06,400 --> 02:05:09,919
Speaker 3: President finds to be unacceptable, and then we get ourselves

2420
02:05:09,920 --> 02:05:13,920
Speaker 3: into a punitive campaign that includes ground ups. I don't

2421
02:05:13,960 --> 02:05:17,360
Speaker 3: foresee that. I just think that, you know, if we've

2422
02:05:17,400 --> 02:05:20,080
Speaker 3: learned anything since, you know, in the last twenty four years,

2423
02:05:20,240 --> 02:05:22,120
Speaker 3: is to avoid that kind of ground campaign.

2424
02:05:23,160 --> 02:05:25,879
Speaker 1: Okay, very last question, Admiral. Do they have the capacity

2425
02:05:25,960 --> 02:05:28,960
Speaker 1: to shoot down our stealthy aircraft other than by a

2426
02:05:29,040 --> 02:05:30,160
Speaker 1: lucky shot?

2427
02:05:32,840 --> 02:05:37,720
Speaker 3: No, now we say today the capability to do it? No, that,

2428
02:05:38,000 --> 02:05:41,520
Speaker 3: but again, there could be a ballistic shot. There could

2429
02:05:41,520 --> 02:05:45,000
Speaker 3: be a weapon that goes off nearby that you know,

2430
02:05:45,080 --> 02:05:47,160
Speaker 3: it's something else, and a piece of frag you know,

2431
02:05:47,240 --> 02:05:49,800
Speaker 3: fragment gets into an engine. We do have some single

2432
02:05:49,800 --> 02:05:51,000
Speaker 3: engine planes.

2433
02:05:52,560 --> 02:05:55,400
Speaker 1: You know there in the United States. I mean we

2434
02:05:55,480 --> 02:05:58,800
Speaker 1: have Yeah, it happens here, so it could happen there

2435
02:05:58,840 --> 02:06:01,560
Speaker 1: in a war zone. What do we do if that happens,

2436
02:06:01,920 --> 02:06:02,880
Speaker 1: We go get him.

2437
02:06:03,520 --> 02:06:06,600
Speaker 3: We will have a team standing by. I think geography,

2438
02:06:06,880 --> 02:06:11,240
Speaker 3: you know, location, location, location, Downtown Tehran might be a toughie,

2439
02:06:12,240 --> 02:06:17,200
Speaker 3: but we'll have uh, we would have teams search and rescue,

2440
02:06:17,440 --> 02:06:21,040
Speaker 3: combat search and rescue teams standing by in different locations

2441
02:06:21,160 --> 02:06:24,560
Speaker 3: to service different geographies. But there are limitations to that.

2442
02:06:25,640 --> 02:06:29,040
Speaker 1: Okay. So in your life as a warrior, how many

2443
02:06:29,040 --> 02:06:31,720
Speaker 1: times have you had this feeling about imminent conflict?

2444
02:06:34,480 --> 02:06:37,880
Speaker 3: Probably six or seven, And it's.

2445
02:06:37,800 --> 02:06:39,240
Speaker 1: Different about this one.

2446
02:06:39,560 --> 02:06:43,440
Speaker 3: And it's happened five or six. So no, Look, what's

2447
02:06:43,520 --> 02:06:48,400
Speaker 3: unusual is this president's just so forward leaning on the rhetoric,

2448
02:06:48,600 --> 02:06:51,400
Speaker 3: you know, which is he does it for effect. I

2449
02:06:51,400 --> 02:06:54,400
Speaker 3: mean it's not this is not shirtlish, right, this is

2450
02:06:55,000 --> 02:06:59,760
Speaker 3: this is how he seeks leverage. And so it's very

2451
02:06:59,800 --> 02:07:02,240
Speaker 3: on predictable. For those of us who haven't dealt you,

2452
02:07:02,240 --> 02:07:05,040
Speaker 3: who were not New York real estate people for thirty years,

2453
02:07:05,240 --> 02:07:07,560
Speaker 3: we're not used to this. So you know, my take

2454
02:07:07,720 --> 02:07:10,880
Speaker 3: is that when a president uses this kind of language,

2455
02:07:11,160 --> 02:07:12,440
Speaker 3: go time is coming.

2456
02:07:13,880 --> 02:07:17,440
Speaker 1: Eedmiral Mark Montgomery, retired, Amerald, thank you for joining me today.

2457
02:07:17,520 --> 02:07:20,240
Speaker 1: We'll stay in touch. I hope you'll be available throughout

2458
02:07:20,280 --> 02:07:23,400
Speaker 1: the weeks ahead, as this thing is getting hotter by

2459
02:07:23,440 --> 02:07:26,000
Speaker 1: the moment. Welcome back in America. I'm hu here att

2460
02:07:26,000 --> 02:07:29,920
Speaker 1: President Trump said yesterday in Iowa. Secretary Rubio said today

2461
02:07:29,920 --> 02:07:33,760
Speaker 1: before the Senate Foreign Relations Panel, and Armada is headed

2462
02:07:33,920 --> 02:07:37,800
Speaker 1: and is already on station in part to the near

2463
02:07:39,680 --> 02:07:42,080
Speaker 1: shore of Iran. What are you going to do with it?

2464
02:07:42,480 --> 02:07:44,280
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I'm going to ask Danielle Pletka,

2465
02:07:44,320 --> 02:07:47,120
Speaker 1: a senior fellow at the American Enterprises Stude. He studies

2466
02:07:47,200 --> 02:07:50,000
Speaker 1: these things. She's the host of What the Hell is

2467
02:07:50,040 --> 02:07:53,120
Speaker 1: going on with Mark Tieson in the Washington Post and AI.

2468
02:07:53,200 --> 02:07:55,040
Speaker 1: So I'm going to ask you, Danny, what the hell

2469
02:07:55,160 --> 02:08:01,720
Speaker 1: is going on? And right now with our flotilla.

2470
02:08:00,200 --> 02:08:03,440
Speaker 11: So, we've got a carrier battle group that is in

2471
02:08:03,480 --> 02:08:08,839
Speaker 11: the region that is close enough to position to strike Iran.

2472
02:08:09,280 --> 02:08:12,720
Speaker 11: We've got some additional assets that the President has moved

2473
02:08:12,840 --> 02:08:17,520
Speaker 11: into other countries in the region, including Jordan. There are

2474
02:08:17,760 --> 02:08:21,320
Speaker 11: some more things on the way that may provide additional

2475
02:08:21,440 --> 02:08:25,320
Speaker 11: military options to the president. I think right now what

2476
02:08:25,480 --> 02:08:29,120
Speaker 11: we're looking at is a go no go decision.

2477
02:08:30,880 --> 02:08:33,800
Speaker 1: Okay, Now, what is going to happen and what you

2478
02:08:33,920 --> 02:08:37,240
Speaker 1: want to have happened maybe different. Tell me first what

2479
02:08:37,280 --> 02:08:39,040
Speaker 1: you think is going to happen, and then tell me

2480
02:08:39,120 --> 02:08:41,080
Speaker 1: what you hope happens.

2481
02:08:41,240 --> 02:08:46,040
Speaker 11: Look, you know, Hugh, I know that the President made

2482
02:08:46,080 --> 02:08:50,800
Speaker 11: a go decision and that he was choked out of

2483
02:08:50,800 --> 02:08:54,680
Speaker 11: it by the Israelis who felt they were not prepared

2484
02:08:54,920 --> 02:08:59,680
Speaker 11: for what the Iranians were threatening, which is ballistic missile strikes.

2485
02:09:00,040 --> 02:09:04,440
Speaker 11: The Iranians have spent the last eight months since the

2486
02:09:04,560 --> 02:09:09,800
Speaker 11: Summer War rebuilding their ballistic missile capabilities, and they could

2487
02:09:09,840 --> 02:09:14,000
Speaker 11: do very substantial damage. I'm hoping that in addition to

2488
02:09:14,120 --> 02:09:18,040
Speaker 11: the offensive capabilities we've brought into the region, we've brought

2489
02:09:18,080 --> 02:09:22,600
Speaker 11: additional defensive equipment into the region in order to help

2490
02:09:22,640 --> 02:09:25,200
Speaker 11: support the Israelis because some of that was pulled out.

2491
02:09:25,280 --> 02:09:27,680
Speaker 11: So what do I hope? What I hope is that

2492
02:09:27,720 --> 02:09:31,520
Speaker 11: the President goes with his original decision and that he

2493
02:09:31,680 --> 02:09:36,160
Speaker 11: strikes Iran, that the people of Iran finally throw off

2494
02:09:36,240 --> 02:09:41,000
Speaker 11: this yoke of tyranny. Islamis tyranny that has been strangling

2495
02:09:41,040 --> 02:09:45,080
Speaker 11: them for almost forty seven years, and that we're done with,

2496
02:09:45,600 --> 02:09:48,600
Speaker 11: what do I think will happen. I think it's touch

2497
02:09:48,680 --> 02:09:52,240
Speaker 11: and go. I think the President is profoundly tempted by

2498
02:09:52,280 --> 02:09:56,760
Speaker 11: Iranian blandishments, but he's probably making the kinds of demands

2499
02:09:56,800 --> 02:09:58,480
Speaker 11: that they don't want to agree to.

2500
02:10:00,480 --> 02:10:03,480
Speaker 1: Danny Pike, we've watched him now for five years, including

2501
02:10:03,600 --> 02:10:06,160
Speaker 1: the most recent year. He'll say A and not A,

2502
02:10:06,440 --> 02:10:08,160
Speaker 1: he'll say B and not B, and then he'll do

2503
02:10:08,480 --> 02:10:12,320
Speaker 1: X now, So I mean he is very good at

2504
02:10:12,560 --> 02:10:16,520
Speaker 1: the art of deception, not unlike other wartime leaders in

2505
02:10:16,560 --> 02:10:20,640
Speaker 1: recent memory. I'm not sure I have any hope that

2506
02:10:20,720 --> 02:10:23,560
Speaker 1: anything the United States can do will end this regime.

2507
02:10:24,000 --> 02:10:27,600
Speaker 1: It's got forty seven years of tentacles deep into the ground,

2508
02:10:28,080 --> 02:10:30,520
Speaker 1: and they have proven with the execution of thirty thousand

2509
02:10:30,520 --> 02:10:33,240
Speaker 1: plus people that they will do do whatever they have

2510
02:10:33,280 --> 02:10:35,680
Speaker 1: to do to stay in power. Do you really think

2511
02:10:35,920 --> 02:10:38,800
Speaker 1: that anything we do can change that. I still want

2512
02:10:38,840 --> 02:10:42,400
Speaker 1: to hit them for punitive purposes to hopefully deter such

2513
02:10:42,440 --> 02:10:47,920
Speaker 1: future action, but I'm not an optimist about digging them out.

2514
02:10:48,280 --> 02:10:52,160
Speaker 8: So this is unknowable, right.

2515
02:10:53,040 --> 02:10:58,560
Speaker 11: We are notoriously bad at predicting revolutions. All I can

2516
02:10:58,600 --> 02:11:02,880
Speaker 11: say is that what we were seeing until the Iranians

2517
02:11:03,080 --> 02:11:06,960
Speaker 11: clamps down very hard over the last couple of weeks,

2518
02:11:07,360 --> 02:11:12,200
Speaker 11: what we were seeing was genuine concern inside the regime

2519
02:11:12,280 --> 02:11:14,640
Speaker 11: that they had lost control of the country. You know,

2520
02:11:14,800 --> 02:11:17,720
Speaker 11: all of the previous revolutions that we've seen in Iran,

2521
02:11:17,800 --> 02:11:21,480
Speaker 11: maksa Emini in twenty twenty two, twenty nineteen, the two

2522
02:11:21,520 --> 02:11:24,960
Speaker 11: thousand and nine Green Revolution, they were what you could

2523
02:11:25,040 --> 02:11:29,480
Speaker 11: call sectoral revolutions. You know, these were efforts by women

2524
02:11:29,640 --> 02:11:34,960
Speaker 11: or women and students or others, unions, economic grievances. This

2525
02:11:35,200 --> 02:11:39,080
Speaker 11: was the coalescence of the people of Iran for a

2526
02:11:39,360 --> 02:11:43,680
Speaker 11: genuine counter revolution. And while you're one hundred percent right,

2527
02:11:44,080 --> 02:11:49,040
Speaker 11: this regime's number one priority above all else is staying

2528
02:11:49,080 --> 02:11:53,040
Speaker 11: in power. Not nuclear, not missile, not Israel, not Palestinians.

2529
02:11:53,240 --> 02:11:56,480
Speaker 11: Staying in power, and they will do anything to hang

2530
02:11:56,560 --> 02:11:59,920
Speaker 11: on to it. At the same time, when your people

2531
02:12:00,120 --> 02:12:03,400
Speaker 11: a rise against you, the government starts splitting, and we're

2532
02:12:03,480 --> 02:12:06,320
Speaker 11: still seeing those splits today. That's what gives me a

2533
02:12:06,360 --> 02:12:08,040
Speaker 11: little bit of hope. I'm not going to tell you

2534
02:12:08,160 --> 02:12:10,120
Speaker 11: it's a slam dunk or I'm not even going to

2535
02:12:10,120 --> 02:12:11,920
Speaker 11: tell you it's fifty to fifty because I don't know.

2536
02:12:12,760 --> 02:12:16,000
Speaker 11: But what I do know is that this is the

2537
02:12:16,000 --> 02:12:18,880
Speaker 11: closest that we have come. And when I say we,

2538
02:12:19,040 --> 02:12:23,240
Speaker 11: I mean the people who stand against this regime. This

2539
02:12:23,320 --> 02:12:25,720
Speaker 11: is the closest we've come in forty seven.

2540
02:12:25,600 --> 02:12:29,400
Speaker 1: Years, Danny. I have spent the last two weeks talking

2541
02:12:29,440 --> 02:12:33,000
Speaker 1: to everyone, beginning with the President, who knows anybody iron

2542
02:12:33,080 --> 02:12:37,000
Speaker 1: and is in the public and has an ability to

2543
02:12:37,040 --> 02:12:41,960
Speaker 1: deliver commentary and not give away state secrets. And all

2544
02:12:42,000 --> 02:12:44,600
Speaker 1: of them have different target sets, and I ask them all,

2545
02:12:44,640 --> 02:12:47,200
Speaker 1: why don't we blow up carg Island Because the regime

2546
02:12:47,240 --> 02:12:49,600
Speaker 1: has no other money that doesn't come out of carg

2547
02:12:49,640 --> 02:12:52,360
Speaker 1: Island or the other two oil terminals, and they're worried

2548
02:12:52,360 --> 02:12:54,200
Speaker 1: about China. Some of them want to blow it up.

2549
02:12:54,200 --> 02:12:58,000
Speaker 1: What standy PLETK could think about the target list and

2550
02:12:58,040 --> 02:12:59,959
Speaker 1: whether or not it ought to include carg Island.

2551
02:13:01,000 --> 02:13:04,520
Speaker 11: So it's really funny you say that, Mark Tison and

2552
02:13:04,560 --> 02:13:08,480
Speaker 11: I on our podcast, as you've nicely noted what the

2553
02:13:08,480 --> 02:13:10,920
Speaker 11: hell is going on, had my colleague Michael Rubin on,

2554
02:13:11,000 --> 02:13:13,720
Speaker 11: and Michael Rubin said, you want to hit them hard,

2555
02:13:13,760 --> 02:13:15,720
Speaker 11: you want to hit them once you hit them at

2556
02:13:15,840 --> 02:13:18,520
Speaker 11: kaj and that will be That is a single point

2557
02:13:18,560 --> 02:13:23,480
Speaker 11: of failure for the Iranian regime. Here's the problem. There

2558
02:13:23,480 --> 02:13:27,120
Speaker 11: are a lot of serious problems in Syria right now,

2559
02:13:27,480 --> 02:13:32,320
Speaker 11: but one of the problems that the president's new friend,

2560
02:13:32,400 --> 02:13:35,320
Speaker 11: Ahmed al Shara, the President of Syria, has is that

2561
02:13:35,560 --> 02:13:40,960
Speaker 11: sanctions are absolutely strangling his ability to do anything economically. Now,

2562
02:13:41,240 --> 02:13:44,040
Speaker 11: set aside what's been going on, because that's all very troubling,

2563
02:13:44,320 --> 02:13:48,520
Speaker 11: but prior to that he couldn't deliver economically. One of

2564
02:13:48,560 --> 02:13:53,440
Speaker 11: the things about a transition to a democratically ruled Iran

2565
02:13:54,160 --> 02:13:57,840
Speaker 11: is that economic life's blood, that is Iran's oil. And

2566
02:13:57,880 --> 02:14:02,280
Speaker 11: so my guess is that when they debate hitting harsh,

2567
02:14:02,360 --> 02:14:06,080
Speaker 11: not hitting harsh, hitting the oil infrastructure, not hitting it,

2568
02:14:06,320 --> 02:14:10,440
Speaker 11: they are asking themselves, if the good guys come to power,

2569
02:14:11,160 --> 02:14:14,320
Speaker 11: how will they repair this? How will they have access

2570
02:14:14,360 --> 02:14:18,160
Speaker 11: to money fast enough? And you know, again, I think

2571
02:14:18,160 --> 02:14:20,800
Speaker 11: that's just a factor. But in terms of the strategic

2572
02:14:20,840 --> 02:14:22,960
Speaker 11: importance of it, I couldn't agree.

2573
02:14:22,600 --> 02:14:24,760
Speaker 8: More with the folks who said to you, that is

2574
02:14:24,760 --> 02:14:25,840
Speaker 8: a good target.

2575
02:14:26,000 --> 02:14:26,280
Speaker 10: All right.

2576
02:14:26,560 --> 02:14:27,840
Speaker 1: Let me conclude by I said I don't know how

2577
02:14:27,880 --> 02:14:29,720
Speaker 1: to pronounce harge island and I don't care, but I

2578
02:14:30,040 --> 02:14:32,920
Speaker 1: don't know much about it the geography of of Iran.

2579
02:14:33,120 --> 02:14:36,120
Speaker 1: I do care about their being able to hit all

2580
02:14:36,120 --> 02:14:39,880
Speaker 1: these bases. I played Secretary of Rubio testimony today. There

2581
02:14:39,880 --> 02:14:43,919
Speaker 1: are forty thousand Americans within range of Iran. If President

2582
02:14:43,920 --> 02:14:46,960
Speaker 1: Trump pulls the trigger, should it be overwhelming force on

2583
02:14:47,200 --> 02:14:49,960
Speaker 1: everything that moves that can hurt American troops?

2584
02:14:51,640 --> 02:14:55,480
Speaker 11: Well, I don't think that. From everything I understand so far,

2585
02:14:55,680 --> 02:14:59,600
Speaker 11: I don't think that that is the President's inclination. Notwithstanding

2586
02:14:59,640 --> 02:15:03,520
Speaker 11: his I do think that the I do think that

2587
02:15:03,680 --> 02:15:07,360
Speaker 11: one thing they will have focused on very intensely is

2588
02:15:07,520 --> 02:15:11,640
Speaker 11: Iran's ability to strike US troops US allies. And that

2589
02:15:11,680 --> 02:15:14,680
Speaker 11: doesn't just mean Israel. That also means Saudi Arabia, it

2590
02:15:14,680 --> 02:15:17,880
Speaker 11: means the United Arab Emirates, it means unfortunately, it also

2591
02:15:17,920 --> 02:15:21,000
Speaker 11: means Qatar, where we have a base. So my guess

2592
02:15:21,080 --> 02:15:24,680
Speaker 11: is that we will have very good protection in place

2593
02:15:24,800 --> 02:15:27,000
Speaker 11: and that we will take out that ability before we

2594
02:15:27,080 --> 02:15:31,360
Speaker 11: do anything else. So is that something to worry about. Yes,

2595
02:15:31,440 --> 02:15:34,400
Speaker 11: But our Pentagon planners and these guys in the Pentagon

2596
02:15:34,440 --> 02:15:36,960
Speaker 11: people like, they don't like Donald Trump. They respect they

2597
02:15:36,960 --> 02:15:40,840
Speaker 11: don't respect Pete Haigsat. That's not the factor here. These

2598
02:15:40,920 --> 02:15:43,640
Speaker 11: are the guys in uniform. This is the Chairman of

2599
02:15:43,720 --> 02:15:46,960
Speaker 11: the Joint Chiefs, Raisin Kine. These guys know what they're doing.

2600
02:15:48,160 --> 02:15:50,280
Speaker 1: Danny Plikatt always good to talk to. You're on the

2601
02:15:50,280 --> 02:15:52,200
Speaker 1: other side of the world, and I appreciate your making

2602
02:15:52,280 --> 02:15:53,880
Speaker 1: time for us from the other side of the world

2603
02:15:53,920 --> 02:15:57,840
Speaker 1: on this most important conflext Danny Pliitchett, thank you her

2604
02:15:58,000 --> 02:16:00,560
Speaker 1: podcast with Martis and is what the Hell's going on?

2605
02:16:00,640 --> 02:16:04,280
Speaker 1: Don't miss it. Stay tuned to the Welcome Back America.

2606
02:16:04,360 --> 02:16:08,840
Speaker 1: I'm Hugh Hewitt, joined now by Michael Worn, former ambassador

2607
02:16:08,920 --> 02:16:11,360
Speaker 1: from Israel to the United States. Doctor Orrin is the

2608
02:16:11,480 --> 02:16:14,040
Speaker 1: go to guy on things in Israel, and I want

2609
02:16:14,040 --> 02:16:16,000
Speaker 1: to begin by saying, I think everyone in the audience

2610
02:16:16,040 --> 02:16:18,920
Speaker 1: shares the relief that all of Israel must share dr

2611
02:16:19,000 --> 02:16:21,600
Speaker 1: Orn with the return of the last hostage body. And

2612
02:16:21,840 --> 02:16:24,480
Speaker 1: what a horrific chapter do have closed? But I am

2613
02:16:24,520 --> 02:16:26,440
Speaker 1: glad that it closed today. I don't know what the

2614
02:16:26,560 --> 02:16:29,560
Speaker 1: emotional reaction is in Israel, but relief has got to

2615
02:16:29,600 --> 02:16:30,200
Speaker 1: be part of it.

2616
02:16:31,840 --> 02:16:34,200
Speaker 12: We look is the first time in two and a

2617
02:16:34,240 --> 02:16:36,960
Speaker 12: half years here that I'm not wearing the yellow ribbon

2618
02:16:37,000 --> 02:16:39,560
Speaker 12: pin and I don't know if folks ever going to

2619
02:16:39,560 --> 02:16:41,480
Speaker 12: take it off of my lapel, but he just came

2620
02:16:41,520 --> 02:16:43,320
Speaker 12: off today, several hours ago.

2621
02:16:43,840 --> 02:16:46,600
Speaker 13: And I must say our feelings are divided.

2622
02:16:46,920 --> 02:16:50,000
Speaker 12: Part of us are sharing the sorrow of the Gavilli

2623
02:16:50,120 --> 02:16:55,520
Speaker 12: family whose son was killed performing heroically on twenty three

2624
02:16:55,760 --> 02:16:58,520
Speaker 12: In cover seven twenty twenty three E we shared the

2625
02:16:58,560 --> 02:17:01,920
Speaker 12: relief of the family receiving his remains.

2626
02:17:01,440 --> 02:17:03,720
Speaker 13: For proper burial in the state of Israel.

2627
02:17:04,800 --> 02:17:07,360
Speaker 12: And we are are filled with hope for the future

2628
02:17:07,560 --> 02:17:10,360
Speaker 12: now that all those hostages have been returned a living

2629
02:17:10,560 --> 02:17:14,440
Speaker 12: and deceased, and we can begin to rebuild and take on.

2630
02:17:14,400 --> 02:17:15,040
Speaker 13: The next chapter.

2631
02:17:15,120 --> 02:17:17,600
Speaker 12: And as you see that next chapter is coming very

2632
02:17:17,640 --> 02:17:18,680
Speaker 12: very rapidly, it seems.

2633
02:17:19,120 --> 02:17:22,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's turn to that. I'm going to benham

2634
02:17:22,240 --> 02:17:25,400
Speaker 1: Ben Talib Blue for the last hour of today's program

2635
02:17:25,480 --> 02:17:28,480
Speaker 1: talking about Iran. I think we are on the brink

2636
02:17:28,520 --> 02:17:31,560
Speaker 1: of the United States initiating kinetic activity, because it would

2637
02:17:31,600 --> 02:17:34,840
Speaker 1: be a dent in deterrence if we don't. How do

2638
02:17:34,879 --> 02:17:37,800
Speaker 1: you see this situation? Does the United States go alone,

2639
02:17:37,800 --> 02:17:39,879
Speaker 1: does it go with Israel? Does it follow Israel like

2640
02:17:39,920 --> 02:17:41,360
Speaker 1: it did in June of last year.

2641
02:17:42,879 --> 02:17:45,280
Speaker 13: Well, it's like that answer on the SATs. It's d

2642
02:17:45,440 --> 02:17:46,200
Speaker 13: all of the above.

2643
02:17:46,320 --> 02:17:49,240
Speaker 12: Okay, one of three things going to happen in the

2644
02:17:49,320 --> 02:17:51,720
Speaker 12: United States goes it alone. And I can't imagine that

2645
02:17:51,760 --> 02:17:55,280
Speaker 12: the President has moved so many massive assets to the

2646
02:17:55,320 --> 02:17:57,680
Speaker 12: Middle East region and it's not going to use them.

2647
02:17:58,240 --> 02:18:00,879
Speaker 13: You take out a pistol and don't use it.

2648
02:18:00,959 --> 02:18:03,640
Speaker 12: It projects weakness and not strength, and you become basically

2649
02:18:03,720 --> 02:18:08,640
Speaker 12: a Barack Obama not enforcing a red line. God forbid. Secondly,

2650
02:18:09,200 --> 02:18:11,920
Speaker 12: does does Israel join? And from my sources in Israel

2651
02:18:11,959 --> 02:18:13,879
Speaker 12: tell me that thisel very much wants to join, wants

2652
02:18:13,920 --> 02:18:17,200
Speaker 12: to be part of this, and we can bring to

2653
02:18:17,240 --> 02:18:22,640
Speaker 12: bear immense military power with our air force and other

2654
02:18:22,680 --> 02:18:25,440
Speaker 12: assets we have in the region. And then thirdly, the

2655
02:18:25,520 --> 02:18:28,800
Speaker 12: third option is that maybe there is a coup within

2656
02:18:28,840 --> 02:18:32,640
Speaker 12: the Iranian leadership, that they ditch the Supreme leader and

2657
02:18:32,840 --> 02:18:34,760
Speaker 12: they cut a deal. The cut of deal, which is

2658
02:18:34,800 --> 02:18:38,800
Speaker 12: sort of Venezuela like. The regime will will survive, but

2659
02:18:38,840 --> 02:18:40,400
Speaker 12: it won't be the same regime. It will be not

2660
02:18:40,480 --> 02:18:42,520
Speaker 12: it will not be antried, Western, will be pro Western,

2661
02:18:42,959 --> 02:18:44,879
Speaker 12: and the oil will flow not to China but to

2662
02:18:44,879 --> 02:18:45,680
Speaker 12: the United States.

2663
02:18:46,160 --> 02:18:47,320
Speaker 13: And they will stop.

2664
02:18:47,240 --> 02:18:52,760
Speaker 12: Supporting terrorists around the world and cease steep, cease seeking

2665
02:18:52,800 --> 02:18:55,200
Speaker 12: our destruction, and that would be a gaming change. It

2666
02:18:55,240 --> 02:18:57,120
Speaker 12: wouldn't be the best outcome for the people every round,

2667
02:18:57,160 --> 02:18:59,880
Speaker 12: I must say, but it would be certainly better for

2668
02:18:59,920 --> 02:19:01,320
Speaker 12: the people of the Middle East generally.

2669
02:19:01,560 --> 02:19:06,120
Speaker 1: Now you have founded the Israel Advocacy Group, and the

2670
02:19:06,160 --> 02:19:09,480
Speaker 1: Israel Advocacy Group studies things from the perspective of the

2671
02:19:09,520 --> 02:19:13,480
Speaker 1: Jewish state. Do you expect if the United States initiates

2672
02:19:13,520 --> 02:19:16,640
Speaker 1: a strike as punishment, just punishment for the slaughter of

2673
02:19:16,720 --> 02:19:19,920
Speaker 1: thirty thousand of their own citizens and the ongoing incarceration,

2674
02:19:20,040 --> 02:19:23,360
Speaker 1: probably torture and murder of others, that whether or not

2675
02:19:23,400 --> 02:19:26,560
Speaker 1: you want to get involved, Iran will hit Israel. So

2676
02:19:26,600 --> 02:19:27,920
Speaker 1: you have to get in a first punch.

2677
02:19:29,760 --> 02:19:31,400
Speaker 12: Well, I don't know if we'll preempt it, but I

2678
02:19:31,440 --> 02:19:34,160
Speaker 12: would say we certainly have a cause of belly. Iran

2679
02:19:34,240 --> 02:19:37,359
Speaker 12: has been trying to destroy Israel now since its inception,

2680
02:19:37,520 --> 02:19:39,840
Speaker 12: since theception of this long Republican nineteen seventy nine, is

2681
02:19:39,879 --> 02:19:43,120
Speaker 12: responsible for the deaths of countless thousands of Israelis and

2682
02:19:43,200 --> 02:19:45,480
Speaker 12: Jews around the world, not just as really blowing up

2683
02:19:45,520 --> 02:19:49,480
Speaker 12: synagogues and Jewish community centers in South America, example in Argentina.

2684
02:19:49,560 --> 02:19:54,840
Speaker 12: That's just one example precipitating wars. Iran was behind October seventh.

2685
02:19:54,840 --> 02:19:57,720
Speaker 12: It trained and funded Hamas and his Bola. We don't

2686
02:19:57,760 --> 02:19:59,920
Speaker 12: have to look for a reason to go to war

2687
02:20:00,080 --> 02:20:04,680
Speaker 12: against Iran, but it would help if Iran would.

2688
02:20:04,520 --> 02:20:06,480
Speaker 13: Do is you know Harry Derry.

2689
02:20:06,560 --> 02:20:08,080
Speaker 12: Harry used to say, and I know you know what

2690
02:20:08,120 --> 02:20:10,760
Speaker 12: I mean, go ahead, pull the trigger at making my day,

2691
02:20:11,240 --> 02:20:13,560
Speaker 12: and all we need is one missile fired and we'll

2692
02:20:13,600 --> 02:20:16,040
Speaker 12: take it down and we'll respond.

2693
02:20:16,240 --> 02:20:17,240
Speaker 13: And we have to prepare that.

2694
02:20:17,280 --> 02:20:18,600
Speaker 12: We have to prepare for the fact that it won't

2695
02:20:18,600 --> 02:20:20,600
Speaker 12: be just Iran firing ballistic missiles at us.

2696
02:20:20,760 --> 02:20:21,400
Speaker 3: We assume that.

2697
02:20:21,320 --> 02:20:24,120
Speaker 12: They have about one thousand, five hundred of these very

2698
02:20:24,200 --> 02:20:26,920
Speaker 12: large ballistic missiles. They carry between two hundred and fifty

2699
02:20:26,920 --> 02:20:29,440
Speaker 12: pounds of TNT. It knocks down just not just a building,

2700
02:20:29,480 --> 02:20:32,640
Speaker 12: but a neighborhood. And we're going to have to get

2701
02:20:32,680 --> 02:20:35,400
Speaker 12: to those rocket launchers as soon as possible. But we'll

2702
02:20:35,440 --> 02:20:38,119
Speaker 12: also be targeted by the hoodies once again, maybe by

2703
02:20:38,160 --> 02:20:41,760
Speaker 12: his Bullah, certainly by the Syrian and Iraqi pro Iranian

2704
02:20:41,800 --> 02:20:45,240
Speaker 12: militias in Iraq and Syrias. So we have to be

2705
02:20:45,280 --> 02:20:48,520
Speaker 12: prepared for that type of combat again. And I think

2706
02:20:48,520 --> 02:20:51,560
Speaker 12: that Israel now will be prepared to deliver a knockout.

2707
02:20:51,080 --> 02:20:53,680
Speaker 1: Blow doctor on. And I heard over the weekend that

2708
02:20:54,200 --> 02:20:58,520
Speaker 1: Turkey has supplied Siria's new regime with air defenses that

2709
02:20:58,560 --> 02:21:01,199
Speaker 1: were not there in June of last year. Does Israel

2710
02:21:01,240 --> 02:21:05,600
Speaker 1: still have a clear sky all the way to Iran

2711
02:21:05,640 --> 02:21:07,920
Speaker 1: if it needs it? Oh?

2712
02:21:08,000 --> 02:21:08,879
Speaker 13: Yes, I do it?

2713
02:21:08,920 --> 02:21:09,320
Speaker 3: Does it does?

2714
02:21:09,600 --> 02:21:11,800
Speaker 12: Listen, the Russians were there, We had a clear sky,

2715
02:21:12,120 --> 02:21:15,160
Speaker 12: and the Russians had seemingly the or purportedly the most

2716
02:21:15,200 --> 02:21:18,240
Speaker 12: advanced anti aircraft systems in the world, the S three hundred,

2717
02:21:18,840 --> 02:21:20,480
Speaker 12: because they know if they fire our planes.

2718
02:21:20,240 --> 02:21:20,960
Speaker 13: We're going to fire back.

2719
02:21:21,000 --> 02:21:23,240
Speaker 12: If it destroyed those systems and then go try to

2720
02:21:23,280 --> 02:21:25,480
Speaker 12: sell them to people around the world. So I don't

2721
02:21:25,480 --> 02:21:27,600
Speaker 12: think Turkey's going to risk that, even if they have

2722
02:21:27,720 --> 02:21:30,240
Speaker 12: moved those anti aircraft systems into Syria, they're not going.

2723
02:21:30,120 --> 02:21:31,000
Speaker 13: To fire at our planes.

2724
02:21:31,120 --> 02:21:34,240
Speaker 1: And is there a preparation that if this goes off?

2725
02:21:34,760 --> 02:21:37,119
Speaker 1: I think it has to happen or President Trump will

2726
02:21:37,120 --> 02:21:40,520
Speaker 1: have dented deterrency rebuilt if it does go off. And

2727
02:21:40,560 --> 02:21:42,800
Speaker 1: I expected it well at some point before the middle

2728
02:21:42,800 --> 02:21:46,440
Speaker 1: of March. What's the high end. I mean, those are

2729
02:21:46,480 --> 02:21:49,080
Speaker 1: a lot of missiles with a lot of TNT on them.

2730
02:21:49,200 --> 02:21:51,920
Speaker 1: Do people have any idea what's coming at Israel?

2731
02:21:53,600 --> 02:21:54,960
Speaker 13: Yeah, they do certainly because we had it.

2732
02:21:55,000 --> 02:21:57,039
Speaker 12: We had not a dry run, we had we had it.

2733
02:21:57,040 --> 02:22:00,040
Speaker 12: We had a dress rehearsal in June last year, and

2734
02:22:00,360 --> 02:22:01,760
Speaker 12: I was under fire from those rockets.

2735
02:22:01,800 --> 02:22:02,600
Speaker 13: It's unpleasant, you know.

2736
02:22:02,640 --> 02:22:05,920
Speaker 12: We have we have bomb shelters in our houses that

2737
02:22:06,000 --> 02:22:09,080
Speaker 12: can with stand a hit by his bubble rocket or

2738
02:22:09,120 --> 02:22:12,520
Speaker 12: a Hamas rocket. But the rockets that iman fire us

2739
02:22:12,640 --> 02:22:17,080
Speaker 12: were killing people in those safe rooms, very very powerful explosives.

2740
02:22:17,400 --> 02:22:20,440
Speaker 12: So we have to brace ourselves for that and and

2741
02:22:20,560 --> 02:22:23,199
Speaker 12: listen to people of Israel, as you know, we're indomitable,

2742
02:22:23,240 --> 02:22:25,520
Speaker 12: we're strong, and we will do this.

2743
02:22:25,520 --> 02:22:27,720
Speaker 13: This is an opportunity that comes about.

2744
02:22:28,280 --> 02:22:29,880
Speaker 12: I can say, maybe I want to say a century,

2745
02:22:29,920 --> 02:22:33,480
Speaker 12: but I almost want to say a millennium, to free

2746
02:22:33,760 --> 02:22:36,800
Speaker 12: the Jewish state from a from an enemy that seeks

2747
02:22:36,800 --> 02:22:38,440
Speaker 12: our destruction, not our defeat.

2748
02:22:38,480 --> 02:22:39,760
Speaker 13: You know, it's extremely rare.

2749
02:22:39,600 --> 02:22:42,240
Speaker 12: In history for one side in a conflict to seek

2750
02:22:42,280 --> 02:22:45,680
Speaker 12: to destroy entirely other side. You know, our parents fought

2751
02:22:45,680 --> 02:22:48,199
Speaker 12: against Germany and Japan. They didn't want to destroy Germany

2752
02:22:48,240 --> 02:22:51,240
Speaker 12: advantaces change their government. It's extremely rare and this is

2753
02:22:51,280 --> 02:22:52,200
Speaker 12: our chance to be free of it.

2754
02:22:52,600 --> 02:22:55,800
Speaker 1: Ambassador Michael Orn, founder of the Israel Advocatesy Group, thank

2755
02:22:55,840 --> 02:22:59,480
Speaker 1: you for joining me. Ballaman, actually Dr Michael Lauran, Doctor

2756
02:22:59,560 --> 02:23:02,199
Speaker 1: Michael aren't glad to kick it off with former United

2757
02:23:02,200 --> 02:23:05,480
Speaker 1: States Senator Jim Talent. He represented the state of Missouri.

2758
02:23:05,800 --> 02:23:08,240
Speaker 1: He's now a senior Fellow at the Reagan Institute for

2759
02:23:08,360 --> 02:23:12,400
Speaker 1: the Study of Peace through Its Strength. Senator Talent, we're

2760
02:23:12,400 --> 02:23:15,840
Speaker 1: talking off there about Admiral Montgomery yesterday, who was fabulous.

2761
02:23:16,080 --> 02:23:18,400
Speaker 1: But you're you've been in the defense business as long

2762
02:23:18,400 --> 02:23:20,480
Speaker 1: as he has. Do you think we are on the

2763
02:23:20,560 --> 02:23:24,080
Speaker 1: cusp of a very violent war?

2764
02:23:26,480 --> 02:23:28,280
Speaker 3: Well, I wouldn't call him.

2765
02:23:28,400 --> 02:23:30,480
Speaker 14: I mean all war is violent. I think I think

2766
02:23:30,520 --> 02:23:34,760
Speaker 14: we're we're on the cusp of a campaign that will

2767
02:23:34,800 --> 02:23:39,720
Speaker 14: be a much more campaign, sustained campaign than we had

2768
02:23:39,720 --> 02:23:43,520
Speaker 14: to do to take out their nuclear arsenal. I heard

2769
02:23:43,560 --> 02:23:46,680
Speaker 14: Mark say ten to twelve days, which to me seems

2770
02:23:46,720 --> 02:23:50,240
Speaker 14: about right, because you there's two objectives here. The first

2771
02:23:50,320 --> 02:23:53,120
Speaker 14: is to is to enforce our red line and thereby

2772
02:23:53,320 --> 02:23:56,120
Speaker 14: enhance our credibility in the Middle East and around the world.

2773
02:23:56,400 --> 02:23:58,560
Speaker 14: President's going to do that be on a shadow of

2774
02:23:58,560 --> 02:24:02,600
Speaker 14: a doubt. The second is to further degrade Iran's ability

2775
02:24:02,640 --> 02:24:06,840
Speaker 14: to aggress against its neighbors and destabilize the region, which

2776
02:24:06,879 --> 02:24:09,200
Speaker 14: is against our national interest. Again if you read the

2777
02:24:09,280 --> 02:24:12,840
Speaker 14: national security strategy, so the logical thing to take out

2778
02:24:13,080 --> 02:24:16,560
Speaker 14: is their missile capabilities and every and the anti air

2779
02:24:16,600 --> 02:24:19,240
Speaker 14: systems that protect him to the extent those are still left.

2780
02:24:19,320 --> 02:24:22,400
Speaker 14: And in order to do that job, well, you know,

2781
02:24:22,440 --> 02:24:24,960
Speaker 14: it takes a lot of soorties. You're not going to

2782
02:24:25,040 --> 02:24:28,560
Speaker 14: do that in today. So one interesting question which Mark

2783
02:24:28,640 --> 02:24:31,200
Speaker 14: talked about is whether the Israelis are going to join in.

2784
02:24:31,440 --> 02:24:33,119
Speaker 14: I would love to be a fly on the wall

2785
02:24:34,040 --> 02:24:36,600
Speaker 14: when Trump is talking with net Yao about that.

2786
02:24:37,720 --> 02:24:40,720
Speaker 1: What do you think the preference of the president is.

2787
02:24:40,800 --> 02:24:43,280
Speaker 1: I think he would prefer that they not, but I

2788
02:24:43,280 --> 02:24:45,640
Speaker 1: don't think he's going to hold him back if one

2789
02:24:45,720 --> 02:24:47,080
Speaker 1: missile is shot at.

2790
02:24:47,080 --> 02:24:53,480
Speaker 14: Them, right. Look you well, with regard to the Israelis, yeah,

2791
02:24:53,600 --> 02:24:57,960
Speaker 14: it's a complicated question. I mean because Israel has moved

2792
02:24:58,600 --> 02:25:02,840
Speaker 14: from a containment in the region to a preemption policy

2793
02:25:02,879 --> 02:25:05,360
Speaker 14: in the region, and net yeah, who has been very,

2794
02:25:05,480 --> 02:25:07,880
Speaker 14: very decisive about doing that, and I think he's got

2795
02:25:07,879 --> 02:25:12,800
Speaker 14: the Israeli people behind him, so the Israelis can send

2796
02:25:12,840 --> 02:25:15,000
Speaker 14: the message here too. I mean, in the past they've

2797
02:25:15,000 --> 02:25:17,120
Speaker 14: tried to do hands off on this sort of thing

2798
02:25:17,560 --> 02:25:21,080
Speaker 14: because they felt more vulnerable in the region. If he

2799
02:25:21,200 --> 02:25:23,119
Speaker 14: joins in, I think it's a good way of sending

2800
02:25:23,120 --> 02:25:25,560
Speaker 14: the message. Look, we're the hedge amount of the region,

2801
02:25:25,600 --> 02:25:27,600
Speaker 14: and we're going to act like it when our security

2802
02:25:27,640 --> 02:25:29,959
Speaker 14: is at stake. So I think they ought to do it.

2803
02:25:30,000 --> 02:25:33,200
Speaker 14: I think Admiral Montgomery was right go ahead and join in.

2804
02:25:34,040 --> 02:25:36,480
Speaker 1: You know, I was with a client back in my

2805
02:25:36,640 --> 02:25:40,440
Speaker 1: law practice days in Nevada, big swinger, Jewish man, big

2806
02:25:40,440 --> 02:25:44,640
Speaker 1: sport of Israel, when Israel did not respond to Saddam's scuds,

2807
02:25:44,879 --> 02:25:46,959
Speaker 1: and he couldn't believe it. I was in his office.

2808
02:25:47,000 --> 02:25:49,520
Speaker 1: He could not believe that they were not responding. But

2809
02:25:49,600 --> 02:25:52,360
Speaker 1: of course Secretary Baker and George H. W. Bush asked

2810
02:25:52,360 --> 02:25:55,440
Speaker 1: them not to respond. I don't think Donald Trump's in

2811
02:25:55,480 --> 02:25:58,520
Speaker 1: the business of asking people not to respond if they

2812
02:25:58,560 --> 02:25:59,000
Speaker 1: want to.

2813
02:26:00,320 --> 02:26:05,360
Speaker 14: And I think President Trump adjusts better to changes in

2814
02:26:05,760 --> 02:26:09,560
Speaker 14: a strategic in strategic positioning, in other words, in the

2815
02:26:09,600 --> 02:26:15,039
Speaker 14: past Israel has acted sometimes like they can't act, they

2816
02:26:15,120 --> 02:26:18,480
Speaker 14: can't be a normal do what a normal nation would

2817
02:26:18,480 --> 02:26:21,360
Speaker 14: do in a normal situation, okay, which is to take

2818
02:26:21,400 --> 02:26:25,640
Speaker 14: advantage of this to attack and degrade their chief aggressor.

2819
02:26:26,080 --> 02:26:28,120
Speaker 14: I think the Israelis are done with that, and I

2820
02:26:28,120 --> 02:26:31,560
Speaker 14: think Trump is fine with it. Trump is not burdened

2821
02:26:32,240 --> 02:26:35,760
Speaker 14: by thirty or forty years of assumptions about the Middle East.

2822
02:26:35,800 --> 02:26:38,959
Speaker 14: I mean, he's rethinking the region, he's rethought it, and

2823
02:26:39,040 --> 02:26:41,920
Speaker 14: I just think to look, anybody else in Israel's position,

2824
02:26:42,000 --> 02:26:45,960
Speaker 14: with Israel's power, would join us in this attack, and

2825
02:26:46,360 --> 02:26:48,640
Speaker 14: so I'd like to see him do it now. Again,

2826
02:26:48,920 --> 02:26:50,760
Speaker 14: there are a whole lot of factors working that you

2827
02:26:50,879 --> 02:26:53,720
Speaker 14: and I don't know about. So maybe they won't, but

2828
02:26:54,600 --> 02:26:57,520
Speaker 14: we're certainly going to use their intel, particularly if we

2829
02:26:57,560 --> 02:27:00,680
Speaker 14: go after command and control with the IRGC. They're going

2830
02:27:00,720 --> 02:27:02,000
Speaker 14: to tell us where everybody is.

2831
02:27:02,560 --> 02:27:06,320
Speaker 1: Would you expect any of the Golf Coordinating Council countries

2832
02:27:06,360 --> 02:27:07,000
Speaker 1: to join in?

2833
02:27:08,800 --> 02:27:15,080
Speaker 14: No, accepted defensively. When the Iranians respond, and you, I

2834
02:27:15,120 --> 02:27:18,480
Speaker 14: would reassure people, we're very good at this kind of

2835
02:27:18,520 --> 02:27:21,800
Speaker 14: mission when we have time to build up, to plan,

2836
02:27:22,440 --> 02:27:26,200
Speaker 14: and when the environment is basically noncompetitive. I mean, this

2837
02:27:26,360 --> 02:27:30,040
Speaker 14: is not the South China Sea right where there are

2838
02:27:30,440 --> 02:27:34,240
Speaker 14: thousands and thousands and thousands of anti ship crews and

2839
02:27:34,280 --> 02:27:37,600
Speaker 14: ballistic missiles along the coast of China. This is a

2840
02:27:37,640 --> 02:27:41,720
Speaker 14: basically uncompetitive environment. We're good at this, and so I'm

2841
02:27:41,720 --> 02:27:45,160
Speaker 14: not saying that we can't take any casualties. But I

2842
02:27:45,240 --> 02:27:48,720
Speaker 14: feel pretty confident in our force protection package.

2843
02:27:49,320 --> 02:27:51,160
Speaker 1: Jim, you and I are the same, Ahure. I think

2844
02:27:51,200 --> 02:27:54,080
Speaker 1: you can remember they build up to the nineteen ninety

2845
02:27:54,160 --> 02:27:56,880
Speaker 1: one war, which kicked off I think on March one

2846
02:27:57,000 --> 02:28:00,840
Speaker 1: or thereabouts nineteen ninety one, and the injections of the

2847
02:28:00,959 --> 02:28:03,920
Speaker 1: dead on our team on our side was going to

2848
02:28:03,959 --> 02:28:07,280
Speaker 1: be in the five digits and people were horrified at that,

2849
02:28:07,360 --> 02:28:09,840
Speaker 1: but it was going to be five digits. Men lost

2850
02:28:09,879 --> 02:28:12,640
Speaker 1: their lives, but it was in the hundreds. It might

2851
02:28:12,680 --> 02:28:15,920
Speaker 1: not even been over one hundred. I can't remember. In

2852
02:28:16,000 --> 02:28:20,000
Speaker 1: the Panama Canal invasion in nineteen ninety one, we lost

2853
02:28:20,000 --> 02:28:24,480
Speaker 1: twenty three some soldiers were killed on Heartbreak Ridge in Grenada.

2854
02:28:25,160 --> 02:28:27,959
Speaker 1: And then when the two thousand and three invasion happened,

2855
02:28:28,040 --> 02:28:31,000
Speaker 1: we thought chemical weapons and everything was going to rain

2856
02:28:31,080 --> 02:28:33,400
Speaker 1: down on our troops and didn't happen. Do you think

2857
02:28:33,879 --> 02:28:37,760
Speaker 1: that the false premise of four wars with relatively low

2858
02:28:37,840 --> 02:28:42,600
Speaker 1: casualties as Americans complacent about the risk our troops face

2859
02:28:42,680 --> 02:28:43,359
Speaker 1: right now.

2860
02:28:44,320 --> 02:28:46,240
Speaker 14: Well, we had a couple of wars after that, you

2861
02:28:46,480 --> 02:28:49,720
Speaker 14: were unfortunately, you know, we took a lot of casualties,

2862
02:28:49,760 --> 02:28:53,440
Speaker 14: so relatively speaking, compared to those other engagements, we took

2863
02:28:53,480 --> 02:28:56,039
Speaker 14: a lot of casualties. So no, I think people are worried.

2864
02:28:56,520 --> 02:29:02,080
Speaker 14: I think Donald Trump is uniquely reluctant to use American

2865
02:29:02,280 --> 02:29:06,680
Speaker 14: military power in a sustained combat type situation. Now, I

2866
02:29:06,720 --> 02:29:09,520
Speaker 14: don't know that we'd call ten, twelve, fourteen days all

2867
02:29:09,600 --> 02:29:13,039
Speaker 14: that sustained. So this is a president I think who

2868
02:29:13,520 --> 02:29:16,240
Speaker 14: uniquely and sometimes I worry about it. Sometimes I think

2869
02:29:16,280 --> 02:29:20,360
Speaker 14: maybe he's too reluctant. So we're not going to go

2870
02:29:20,440 --> 02:29:25,640
Speaker 14: in until we're ready, until we have in place what

2871
02:29:25,720 --> 02:29:27,840
Speaker 14: we need to protect our people as much as they

2872
02:29:27,879 --> 02:29:29,840
Speaker 14: can be protected. That's why I say I have a

2873
02:29:29,840 --> 02:29:32,640
Speaker 14: fair amount of confidence. I mean, you never know with war,

2874
02:29:33,959 --> 02:29:37,280
Speaker 14: and he's got to pull the trigger. It's just a

2875
02:29:37,360 --> 02:29:41,120
Speaker 14: question now of when. And I've been saying this on

2876
02:29:41,160 --> 02:29:42,920
Speaker 14: the show and on the pod now for the better

2877
02:29:42,959 --> 02:29:44,840
Speaker 14: part of a month. So I should be careful, but

2878
02:29:45,120 --> 02:29:46,720
Speaker 14: I've got to believe it's going to be soon.

2879
02:29:47,680 --> 02:29:50,920
Speaker 1: The podcast that center Talon is referring to a Twain's

2880
02:29:50,920 --> 02:29:53,320
Speaker 1: World on which you appear every week when Dwayne gets

2881
02:29:53,320 --> 02:29:56,120
Speaker 1: together with the Senator, and it's great national security stuff.

2882
02:29:56,680 --> 02:30:00,240
Speaker 1: What do you expect follows a sustained campaign? Bit of

2883
02:30:00,280 --> 02:30:05,360
Speaker 1: its two weeks more Molas, more IRGC or perhaps a

2884
02:30:05,440 --> 02:30:08,680
Speaker 1: different military general, and the way that CC took power

2885
02:30:08,800 --> 02:30:10,680
Speaker 1: back from the most of brotherhood in Egypt.

2886
02:30:12,280 --> 02:30:14,320
Speaker 14: Well, I heard one of I think it was Dan

2887
02:30:14,400 --> 02:30:16,960
Speaker 14: sen Or's interviewees. You know, he has so many good ones.

2888
02:30:17,000 --> 02:30:20,000
Speaker 14: I can't remember exactly which one, but he said, the

2889
02:30:20,040 --> 02:30:22,200
Speaker 14: next leader of Iran is not going to be wearing

2890
02:30:22,200 --> 02:30:24,320
Speaker 14: a turbine. He's going to be wearing a military cap.

2891
02:30:24,360 --> 02:30:28,120
Speaker 14: And I would really expect that when it happens. I

2892
02:30:28,120 --> 02:30:31,240
Speaker 14: don't think we should necessarily expect that to happen as

2893
02:30:31,240 --> 02:30:33,520
Speaker 14: a result of this campaign, though, because I don't think

2894
02:30:33,879 --> 02:30:37,440
Speaker 14: the purpose of it is to achieve regime collapse. What

2895
02:30:37,520 --> 02:30:40,280
Speaker 14: I would expect we'll do after that is really go

2896
02:30:40,440 --> 02:30:44,960
Speaker 14: after their oil shipments, their shadow oil fleet. I think

2897
02:30:45,000 --> 02:30:47,680
Speaker 14: that's a better alternative than carg Island, which you've talked

2898
02:30:47,720 --> 02:30:51,840
Speaker 14: about you, because we don't want to cripple the nation.

2899
02:30:51,959 --> 02:30:54,840
Speaker 14: We want to cripple the regime. And you can do

2900
02:30:54,920 --> 02:30:57,959
Speaker 14: that by going after their oil shipment. So, assuming we

2901
02:30:58,000 --> 02:30:59,840
Speaker 14: have the assets to do it, we can do to them.

2902
02:31:00,080 --> 02:31:02,920
Speaker 14: We're doing to Venezuela now and choke off revenue. Further

2903
02:31:02,959 --> 02:31:03,640
Speaker 14: from the regime.

2904
02:31:04,440 --> 02:31:07,600
Speaker 1: Do you think that they are in touch with reality

2905
02:31:07,720 --> 02:31:10,000
Speaker 1: enough to know what happens where they do inflec serious

2906
02:31:10,000 --> 02:31:13,120
Speaker 1: casualties on American troops And I mean, you've got to

2907
02:31:13,200 --> 02:31:15,720
Speaker 1: hit on a destroyer. I think Donald Trump would go

2908
02:31:15,800 --> 02:31:16,400
Speaker 1: through the roof.

2909
02:31:17,200 --> 02:31:20,199
Speaker 14: Oh yeah, no, I don't think so. You. I think

2910
02:31:20,280 --> 02:31:23,760
Speaker 14: this is the collapse and they're going to be very

2911
02:31:23,800 --> 02:31:25,720
Speaker 14: This is kind of like Hitler and the Bunkers what

2912
02:31:25,800 --> 02:31:28,480
Speaker 14: I think. I mean, this is the collapse of all

2913
02:31:28,520 --> 02:31:34,680
Speaker 14: their ideological and eschatological pretensions. I think they'll be desperate

2914
02:31:34,680 --> 02:31:36,880
Speaker 14: to do anything to prevent it. And the question is

2915
02:31:37,720 --> 02:31:41,040
Speaker 14: which the Israelis may know I don't know, is are

2916
02:31:41,120 --> 02:31:45,080
Speaker 14: there regime factions that are drawing back from that kind

2917
02:31:45,120 --> 02:31:49,080
Speaker 14: of a scorched earth policy who will act if necessary.

2918
02:31:49,160 --> 02:31:51,920
Speaker 14: I think they've been waiting for the Supreme Leader to die,

2919
02:31:52,160 --> 02:31:54,600
Speaker 14: which makes sense. I mean, that's the time for a

2920
02:31:54,640 --> 02:31:58,600
Speaker 14: transition to something new. So, but are there forces that

2921
02:31:58,640 --> 02:32:00,800
Speaker 14: are prepared to say, at some point point, no, you

2922
02:32:00,840 --> 02:32:03,400
Speaker 14: know what, We're going to hurry that along. You know,

2923
02:32:03,480 --> 02:32:06,800
Speaker 14: we'll bring a pillow to his bedside in the bunker

2924
02:32:07,000 --> 02:32:10,360
Speaker 14: and and and we'll get changed before that. And I

2925
02:32:10,400 --> 02:32:12,840
Speaker 14: don't know, I don't know that anybody knows. If anybody knew,

2926
02:32:12,840 --> 02:32:14,119
Speaker 14: it would be the Israelis.

2927
02:32:14,760 --> 02:32:17,080
Speaker 1: I'm watching his son. His son is a master that

2928
02:32:17,200 --> 02:32:20,160
Speaker 1: fortune of many, many hundreds of millions of dollars outside

2929
02:32:20,160 --> 02:32:24,080
Speaker 1: of the country. And that's not the action of a

2930
02:32:24,120 --> 02:32:26,480
Speaker 1: confident next in lines fame leader, is it.

2931
02:32:27,720 --> 02:32:27,920
Speaker 3: No?

2932
02:32:28,240 --> 02:32:31,800
Speaker 14: And I've got to believe that there are people close

2933
02:32:31,840 --> 02:32:33,800
Speaker 14: to him who aren't quite as willing to die as

2934
02:32:33,840 --> 02:32:36,920
Speaker 14: he may be. I mean, there's a limit to how

2935
02:32:37,000 --> 02:32:39,520
Speaker 14: much you know the top leader is one thing, or

2936
02:32:39,560 --> 02:32:43,760
Speaker 14: the people immediately around him. But I've never thought that

2937
02:32:44,920 --> 02:32:47,880
Speaker 14: when you broad it out the RGC generals and the

2938
02:32:47,879 --> 02:32:51,440
Speaker 14: rest of it, that they're as willing, you know, to

2939
02:32:51,480 --> 02:32:55,920
Speaker 14: meet their maker as the supreme leader is. So if

2940
02:32:55,920 --> 02:33:00,360
Speaker 14: it happens soon, if regime collapses, collapse happens soon, that'll

2941
02:33:00,400 --> 02:33:01,560
Speaker 14: be what will cause it.

2942
02:33:02,800 --> 02:33:05,360
Speaker 1: We will look for that, and we will look for

2943
02:33:05,440 --> 02:33:07,680
Speaker 1: center talent to be back next week. He's also a

2944
02:33:07,680 --> 02:33:10,840
Speaker 1: frequent guest on Dwayne's World. I don't know how often

2945
02:33:10,920 --> 02:33:14,320
Speaker 1: Dwayne are doing that. He's thinking about rekindling the After Show.

2946
02:33:15,160 --> 02:33:16,879
Speaker 1: Be careful, Jim, He'll cut the end of that on

2947
02:33:16,920 --> 02:33:20,280
Speaker 1: a daily basis, Morning Glory and evening Grace Americas. I

2948
02:33:20,400 --> 02:33:23,320
Speaker 1: promised all day. Richard Goldberg joins us. He is with

2949
02:33:23,360 --> 02:33:26,480
Speaker 1: the senior director at the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies

2950
02:33:26,800 --> 02:33:29,480
Speaker 1: and he was in the Trump first term at the

2951
02:33:29,560 --> 02:33:32,360
Speaker 1: National Security Council with the Iran portfolio, and the Trump

2952
02:33:32,440 --> 02:33:36,280
Speaker 1: second term he helps stand up the National Energy Dominance

2953
02:33:36,320 --> 02:33:39,080
Speaker 1: Council of Secretary of Berghoman writer, You've heard here a lot.

2954
02:33:39,360 --> 02:33:42,480
Speaker 1: They went back to the FDD to study Iran, and boy,

2955
02:33:42,520 --> 02:33:45,000
Speaker 1: what a timely time it is. Richard. Welcome to you.

2956
02:33:45,040 --> 02:33:47,879
Speaker 1: Hear a show. Great to have you, great to be

2957
02:33:47,959 --> 02:33:48,600
Speaker 1: great to be here.

2958
02:33:48,640 --> 02:33:50,080
Speaker 3: Thank you so much so Richard.

2959
02:33:50,160 --> 02:33:53,080
Speaker 1: Since President Trump appeared on the program, you know, two

2960
02:33:53,120 --> 02:33:55,800
Speaker 1: weeks and two days ago and said he's going to

2961
02:33:55,879 --> 02:33:58,000
Speaker 1: hit Iran harder than he's ever been hit before. They

2962
02:33:58,000 --> 02:34:00,200
Speaker 1: have ever been hit before. If they keep killing people. Well,

2963
02:34:00,640 --> 02:34:03,480
Speaker 1: I've had on Mark Davitz, your colleague. I've had on

2964
02:34:03,640 --> 02:34:07,359
Speaker 1: Michael Durand from Hudson. I've had on Ben ben Tellerblue,

2965
02:34:07,400 --> 02:34:11,240
Speaker 1: your colleague. I've had on I will have on Kareem Sadjapoor.

2966
02:34:11,720 --> 02:34:15,320
Speaker 1: I think Thursday have Eve ready gore from Israel. You

2967
02:34:15,959 --> 02:34:18,280
Speaker 1: I'm doing my best to get people ready for what

2968
02:34:18,360 --> 02:34:22,039
Speaker 1: will be a very big kinetic collision if it happened.

2969
02:34:22,320 --> 02:34:24,279
Speaker 1: Do you think it's going to happen with Iran?

2970
02:34:26,440 --> 02:34:28,840
Speaker 15: I do think something is going to happen. I think

2971
02:34:28,879 --> 02:34:34,920
Speaker 15: the President is a president of determination commitment. I think

2972
02:34:34,959 --> 02:34:38,880
Speaker 15: he likely has his mind already set on some sort

2973
02:34:38,920 --> 02:34:43,400
Speaker 15: of outcome here and has asked his senior advisors to

2974
02:34:43,520 --> 02:34:46,920
Speaker 15: make sure his options are set and the force posture

2975
02:34:47,000 --> 02:34:50,160
Speaker 15: matches the options that are most aligned with what he

2976
02:34:50,200 --> 02:34:53,720
Speaker 15: wants to achieve. And I think he knows that as

2977
02:34:53,800 --> 02:34:57,039
Speaker 15: more and more of this information comes out, the intelligence

2978
02:34:57,080 --> 02:34:59,720
Speaker 15: that gets leaked, as some of the Internet peaks back

2979
02:34:59,800 --> 02:35:02,000
Speaker 15: on in Iran, his phone calls are being made, as

2980
02:35:02,040 --> 02:35:05,800
Speaker 15: pictures and videos come out, he and the rest of

2981
02:35:05,800 --> 02:35:07,760
Speaker 15: the world sees that a red line that he drew

2982
02:35:07,879 --> 02:35:11,039
Speaker 15: was obliterated by this regime. He is aware of that.

2983
02:35:11,520 --> 02:35:15,400
Speaker 15: The promises of no executions apparently have continued in secret

2984
02:35:15,480 --> 02:35:17,800
Speaker 15: as well. And when you start seeing a death toll

2985
02:35:17,920 --> 02:35:21,960
Speaker 15: in the tens upon tens of thousands, with more still

2986
02:35:22,000 --> 02:35:25,640
Speaker 15: in secret locations being held, with more executions potentially on

2987
02:35:25,640 --> 02:35:28,879
Speaker 15: the way, that alone, of course obliterates the Red line.

2988
02:35:29,320 --> 02:35:32,200
Speaker 15: But he also sees a regime that's teetering, he sees

2989
02:35:32,640 --> 02:35:36,360
Speaker 15: historic opportunity, and as he told you, he's already in

2990
02:35:36,440 --> 02:35:40,440
Speaker 15: many ways sealed his fate in history as somebody like

2991
02:35:40,560 --> 02:35:44,320
Speaker 15: Ronald Reagan who changes the world, whether it's last June

2992
02:35:44,680 --> 02:35:48,080
Speaker 15: with the B two bombers Operation Midnight Hammer, whether it's

2993
02:35:48,080 --> 02:35:51,440
Speaker 15: the most recent operation against Maduro the Abraham of course

2994
02:35:51,480 --> 02:35:55,320
Speaker 15: before that, but you know what, Ronald Reagan brought down

2995
02:35:55,320 --> 02:35:57,480
Speaker 15: the Soviet Union, a major threat to the United States,

2996
02:35:57,480 --> 02:36:02,640
Speaker 15: transformed the entire world. This president could still bring down

2997
02:36:02,720 --> 02:36:06,360
Speaker 15: one of those major threats that is world changing, world

2998
02:36:06,440 --> 02:36:08,920
Speaker 15: history changing, if he contributes to the collapse of the

2999
02:36:08,959 --> 02:36:09,920
Speaker 15: Islamic Republic of.

3000
02:36:09,879 --> 02:36:14,320
Speaker 1: Iran, and in so doing, if that happens, having cut

3001
02:36:14,320 --> 02:36:17,720
Speaker 1: off the People's Republic of China from Venezuela and oil,

3002
02:36:18,200 --> 02:36:21,920
Speaker 1: he may succeed in cutting off Iran from setting hot

3003
02:36:21,959 --> 02:36:24,200
Speaker 1: oil to China, thought have to buy their oil in

3004
02:36:24,280 --> 02:36:26,760
Speaker 1: the world market. It's not that they won't get oil,

3005
02:36:26,760 --> 02:36:29,160
Speaker 1: it's just that they will pay a lot more for it. Richard,

3006
02:36:29,520 --> 02:36:31,879
Speaker 1: does that not serve our strategic interests as well?

3007
02:36:35,000 --> 02:36:38,080
Speaker 15: I mean, I think if you, for some reason don't

3008
02:36:38,080 --> 02:36:41,400
Speaker 15: care at all about thirty five thousand people being mass

3009
02:36:41,480 --> 02:36:44,640
Speaker 15: murdered in forty eight hours and executions going on, you

3010
02:36:44,720 --> 02:36:47,760
Speaker 15: just say, not our issue, not our national interests. And

3011
02:36:48,040 --> 02:36:50,000
Speaker 15: for some reason you didn't even care about the fact

3012
02:36:50,000 --> 02:36:52,600
Speaker 15: that Iran, as the leading state sponsor of terrorism in

3013
02:36:52,640 --> 02:36:56,000
Speaker 15: the world, continues to plot war against the United States,

3014
02:36:56,040 --> 02:36:58,280
Speaker 15: has tried to assassinate the President of the United States

3015
02:36:58,280 --> 02:37:01,359
Speaker 15: while he was out of office. Certainly try to assassinate

3016
02:37:01,440 --> 02:37:04,640
Speaker 15: him again if they remain in power after he leaves office,

3017
02:37:04,920 --> 02:37:06,720
Speaker 15: and all of the other bad things they do to

3018
02:37:07,160 --> 02:37:09,560
Speaker 15: tie us down in the region, All the gold Star

3019
02:37:09,640 --> 02:37:13,680
Speaker 15: families around the country who have grieving, have lost loved ones,

3020
02:37:13,720 --> 02:37:17,040
Speaker 15: whether in Iraq of Beirut, Cobar Towers over many years,

3021
02:37:17,120 --> 02:37:20,640
Speaker 15: in Israel, Gaza, all these different places because of the

3022
02:37:20,680 --> 02:37:23,039
Speaker 15: Islamic Republic of Iran. If for some reason you didn't

3023
02:37:23,040 --> 02:37:25,680
Speaker 15: see that as a major national security thread to us.

3024
02:37:26,280 --> 02:37:29,160
Speaker 15: But you subscribe to great power competition. You say it's

3025
02:37:29,160 --> 02:37:33,120
Speaker 15: all about China, that's our greatest existential threat of the century.

3026
02:37:33,760 --> 02:37:37,200
Speaker 15: Then let me tell you about why the President is

3027
02:37:37,280 --> 02:37:41,080
Speaker 15: executing the most brilliant grand strategy in history right now

3028
02:37:41,080 --> 02:37:44,480
Speaker 15: for the United States and taking apart the axis of

3029
02:37:44,640 --> 02:37:49,199
Speaker 15: enablers for the top acxis of aggressors against the United States.

3030
02:37:49,640 --> 02:37:53,040
Speaker 15: As China starts seeing all of its chess pieces falling

3031
02:37:53,080 --> 02:37:56,880
Speaker 15: off the board, as Russia starts seeing its chess pieces

3032
02:37:56,920 --> 02:38:01,640
Speaker 15: falling off the board, started with Asia collapsing in Syria

3033
02:38:02,120 --> 02:38:04,360
Speaker 15: and then Iran being able to do nothing as the

3034
02:38:04,400 --> 02:38:08,560
Speaker 15: President obliterates its nuclear program, Maduro being taken out in

3035
02:38:08,560 --> 02:38:12,320
Speaker 15: the middle of the night in fifteen minutes by delta force.

3036
02:38:12,879 --> 02:38:16,400
Speaker 15: China is seeing all of its Belt and Road initiatives,

3037
02:38:16,760 --> 02:38:20,080
Speaker 15: all of its investments, all of its key supply lines

3038
02:38:20,120 --> 02:38:24,000
Speaker 15: being threatened, potentially all the aggressors that are the middle

3039
02:38:24,000 --> 02:38:26,400
Speaker 15: powers that can threaten the United States and distract us

3040
02:38:26,720 --> 02:38:30,640
Speaker 15: potentially being taken off the game board. And remember, for

3041
02:38:30,879 --> 02:38:35,760
Speaker 15: China heavily dependent on energy imports, one of their key weaknesses.

3042
02:38:36,280 --> 02:38:39,760
Speaker 15: Fifty percent of their energy imports come through the Strait

3043
02:38:39,800 --> 02:38:42,680
Speaker 15: of Hormuz, that's obviously Saudi and the rest of the

3044
02:38:42,720 --> 02:38:45,800
Speaker 15: Gulf plus Iran. But if Iran is no longer a

3045
02:38:45,800 --> 02:38:48,880
Speaker 15: threat there, if you're able to constrain that oil supply,

3046
02:38:49,440 --> 02:38:52,480
Speaker 15: and you've taken off the ability for Maduro to supply

3047
02:38:53,080 --> 02:38:56,039
Speaker 15: a few hundred thousand barrels per day going up from

3048
02:38:56,120 --> 02:38:59,360
Speaker 15: Venezuela as well, they are left with the potential of

3049
02:38:59,400 --> 02:39:01,720
Speaker 15: having to rely on guess who, the United States of

3050
02:39:01,760 --> 02:39:04,959
Speaker 15: America from whom they could be buying more oil, and

3051
02:39:05,040 --> 02:39:08,440
Speaker 15: other partners where we would have strong relations, and obviously

3052
02:39:08,520 --> 02:39:11,760
Speaker 15: the US Navy the ability to interdict in time of conflict.

3053
02:39:11,800 --> 02:39:14,520
Speaker 15: That's bad grand strategy for China, that's very good grand

3054
02:39:14,560 --> 02:39:15,640
Speaker 15: strategy for US.

3055
02:39:16,120 --> 02:39:20,160
Speaker 1: So, Richard Goldberg, I believe that if the President fails

3056
02:39:20,240 --> 02:39:23,640
Speaker 1: to strike it Iran, it will dent the deterrence that

3057
02:39:23,720 --> 02:39:27,520
Speaker 1: he is so masterfully rebuilt in the first year following

3058
02:39:27,600 --> 02:39:31,279
Speaker 1: the disastrous years of the Locust under Joe Biden. However,

3059
02:39:31,800 --> 02:39:35,120
Speaker 1: I also don't believe that's going to happen. I think

3060
02:39:35,160 --> 02:39:37,680
Speaker 1: what he was doing with me, and then he followed

3061
02:39:37,720 --> 02:39:40,480
Speaker 1: with Sean Hannity, and he followed with Tony Dakoppel and

3062
02:39:40,520 --> 02:39:42,879
Speaker 1: he did it on true social was trying to prevent violence.

3063
02:39:42,959 --> 02:39:46,320
Speaker 1: It did not work ever since then, since the massacre.

3064
02:39:46,320 --> 02:39:48,640
Speaker 1: And you use the term thirty five thousand, I've seen

3065
02:39:48,680 --> 02:39:52,880
Speaker 1: now today as highest forty thousand. That's almost unimaginable. But

3066
02:39:52,920 --> 02:39:55,800
Speaker 1: the president is a visual person. Do you think he

3067
02:39:55,920 --> 02:39:59,360
Speaker 1: has a good flow of information from inside Iran? Is

3068
02:39:59,400 --> 02:40:02,280
Speaker 1: to exact how widespread the massacre was.

3069
02:40:04,120 --> 02:40:07,039
Speaker 15: I think that picture is increasing, and the flow of

3070
02:40:07,080 --> 02:40:11,240
Speaker 15: information is obviously accelerating. I do actually think that it's

3071
02:40:11,280 --> 02:40:13,920
Speaker 15: possible he did not have a good flow of information

3072
02:40:14,040 --> 02:40:17,960
Speaker 15: that first weekend when the massacres were taking place, most

3073
02:40:18,000 --> 02:40:21,000
Speaker 15: mainstream media were downplaying the reports that I and others

3074
02:40:21,000 --> 02:40:24,840
Speaker 15: were hearing from inside of Iran. The leading opposition news source,

3075
02:40:24,879 --> 02:40:28,120
Speaker 15: Iran International, was reporting throughout the weekend five thousand and

3076
02:40:28,200 --> 02:40:30,960
Speaker 15: twelve thousand. We were hearing a lot of the stories

3077
02:40:30,959 --> 02:40:33,680
Speaker 15: that are now being confirmed through the weekend, But you

3078
02:40:33,680 --> 02:40:35,560
Speaker 15: would hear from a lot of sources in government that's

3079
02:40:35,600 --> 02:40:38,840
Speaker 15: just not matching what we're hearing so far, both here

3080
02:40:38,879 --> 02:40:41,560
Speaker 15: in the United States, in Great Britain and elsewhere where.

3081
02:40:41,560 --> 02:40:45,240
Speaker 15: We would rely on the intelligence community to validate rumors

3082
02:40:45,840 --> 02:40:48,600
Speaker 15: coming out of Iran. There's no way to deny what's

3083
02:40:48,640 --> 02:40:51,000
Speaker 15: happening now. Millions of people came out in the streets.

3084
02:40:51,320 --> 02:40:54,320
Speaker 15: There was mass murder. The blood is still stained across

3085
02:40:54,400 --> 02:40:57,920
Speaker 15: Tehran and other major cities. People are still trying to

3086
02:40:57,959 --> 02:41:01,680
Speaker 15: identify their loved ones who are being held hostage, even

3087
02:41:01,680 --> 02:41:06,039
Speaker 15: as dead bodies throughout Iran. Right now, the fear of

3088
02:41:06,080 --> 02:41:08,800
Speaker 15: a continued crack down if anybody else comes out into

3089
02:41:08,800 --> 02:41:11,840
Speaker 15: the streets, But also understanding that this is a regime

3090
02:41:12,240 --> 02:41:14,760
Speaker 15: that teeters. Why did people come out into the streets.

3091
02:41:15,040 --> 02:41:19,160
Speaker 15: There was an economic crisis that Donald Trump helped facilitate

3092
02:41:19,240 --> 02:41:23,240
Speaker 15: and accelerate. There has been the snapback of UN sanctions,

3093
02:41:23,280 --> 02:41:25,480
Speaker 15: and so there's an understanding in the market that the

3094
02:41:25,480 --> 02:41:28,280
Speaker 15: old Iron nuclear Deal is never coming back. Banks were

3095
02:41:28,280 --> 02:41:31,960
Speaker 15: teetering on the edge of collapse. One did collapse. There's

3096
02:41:32,000 --> 02:41:35,600
Speaker 15: a water crisis because of the mismanagement of this maniacal,

3097
02:41:35,680 --> 02:41:38,960
Speaker 15: corrupt regime. There is a power energy crisis where the

3098
02:41:39,000 --> 02:41:43,080
Speaker 15: grid is experience blackouts throughout Iran. So people hate this regime.

3099
02:41:43,120 --> 02:41:44,800
Speaker 15: They already hate them for what they do to the

3100
02:41:44,800 --> 02:41:47,560
Speaker 15: people repression wise, as you can see, they hate them

3101
02:41:47,600 --> 02:41:50,600
Speaker 15: because their standard of living continues to go down into

3102
02:41:50,600 --> 02:41:53,920
Speaker 15: the gutter. This has spread from upper class to middle class,

3103
02:41:53,920 --> 02:41:58,119
Speaker 15: the lower class, religious, secular, all across Iran. And if

3104
02:41:58,120 --> 02:42:00,480
Speaker 15: millions of people were willing to take to this streets

3105
02:42:01,040 --> 02:42:04,160
Speaker 15: but right now are deterred by machine guns and IERGC

3106
02:42:04,360 --> 02:42:08,279
Speaker 15: forces out there, if those IRGC forces somehow are dispersed

3107
02:42:08,400 --> 02:42:11,200
Speaker 15: have to run away themselves, stands to reason millions of

3108
02:42:11,200 --> 02:42:14,160
Speaker 15: people would come back into the streets if they see

3109
02:42:14,400 --> 02:42:18,080
Speaker 15: help on the way, as the President promised. And frankly,

3110
02:42:18,680 --> 02:42:22,320
Speaker 15: we long term whether or not this collapses tomorrow. Remember

3111
02:42:22,400 --> 02:42:24,800
Speaker 15: nineteen seventy eight to nineteen seventy nine took a year

3112
02:42:25,200 --> 02:42:28,360
Speaker 15: before the Shah had to flee Iran. Even if this

3113
02:42:28,440 --> 02:42:31,039
Speaker 15: is a long term situation and this regime does not

3114
02:42:31,080 --> 02:42:34,120
Speaker 15: immediately collapse or the Supreme Leader has taken out and

3115
02:42:34,160 --> 02:42:38,119
Speaker 15: you don't have a full change in regime, the RGC

3116
02:42:38,200 --> 02:42:40,800
Speaker 15: steps in a different successor from the MULLA step in.

3117
02:42:41,520 --> 02:42:44,560
Speaker 15: If you're able to use this opportunity to continue to

3118
02:42:44,640 --> 02:42:47,720
Speaker 15: degrade and dismantle a direct threat to the United States,

3119
02:42:48,240 --> 02:42:51,960
Speaker 15: a direct tool of the CCP in China and putin

3120
02:42:52,080 --> 02:42:56,800
Speaker 15: in Moscow by degrading their missile program, their navy, their

3121
02:42:56,879 --> 02:43:00,160
Speaker 15: drone program, and their command and control. You do a

3122
02:43:00,200 --> 02:43:02,440
Speaker 15: great service to the United States. You enforce a red

3123
02:43:02,480 --> 02:43:05,040
Speaker 15: line and show the enemies of America this president continues

3124
02:43:05,080 --> 02:43:08,080
Speaker 15: to mean business. And maybe yes, you give the opportunity

3125
02:43:08,080 --> 02:43:10,600
Speaker 15: for millions of Iranians to come back out and take

3126
02:43:10,640 --> 02:43:13,440
Speaker 15: this country back for Iran, which will be a game

3127
02:43:13,560 --> 02:43:15,320
Speaker 15: changer for US national security.

3128
02:43:15,879 --> 02:43:18,439
Speaker 1: Don't go anywhere. I'm coming right back with Richard Goldberg,

3129
02:43:18,480 --> 02:43:21,920
Speaker 1: Senior director at the Foundation for the Defense of DEMOCRACIESFDD

3130
02:43:22,360 --> 02:43:24,680
Speaker 1: dot org, and you can follow him at Richard Goldberg

3131
02:43:24,720 --> 02:43:27,200
Speaker 1: on AX. I'll make sure I get the right. Is

3132
02:43:27,240 --> 02:43:28,800
Speaker 1: there a middle initial in there, Richard or is it

3133
02:43:28,879 --> 02:43:29,760
Speaker 1: just Richard Goldberg?

3134
02:43:30,240 --> 02:43:33,879
Speaker 15: Just at rich Underscore Goldberg. The underscore touches people some.

3135
02:43:34,160 --> 02:43:37,600
Speaker 1: At rich Underscore Goldberg. It's one of the people I

3136
02:43:37,640 --> 02:43:40,560
Speaker 1: tell you you should follow routinely online because there are

3137
02:43:40,560 --> 02:43:42,720
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of people with opinions about Iran, but

3138
02:43:42,760 --> 02:43:45,640
Speaker 1: there aren't that many with actual firsthand knowledge of having

3139
02:43:45,680 --> 02:43:49,119
Speaker 1: worked the portfolio at the NFC. Richard has don't go anywhere.

3140
02:43:49,120 --> 02:43:51,119
Speaker 1: I'll be right bats with rich Goldberg from the FDD.

3141
02:43:51,400 --> 02:43:53,640
Speaker 1: After these messages, State tuned to the hen Heal It

3142
02:43:53,760 --> 02:43:57,480
Speaker 1: Show Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett with Richard Goldberg,

3143
02:43:57,560 --> 02:44:00,320
Speaker 1: senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democrat

3144
02:44:00,440 --> 02:44:04,560
Speaker 1: for years and Trump won had the portfoliover Iran sanctions,

3145
02:44:04,600 --> 02:44:07,520
Speaker 1: trying to rebuild some kind of pressure on Iran after

3146
02:44:07,840 --> 02:44:10,800
Speaker 1: Team Obama gave the world away to them, including paliats

3147
02:44:10,840 --> 02:44:14,160
Speaker 1: of cash. He came back in term two at the

3148
02:44:14,200 --> 02:44:16,680
Speaker 1: beginning of it to stand up the Energy Dominance Council

3149
02:44:16,840 --> 02:44:19,360
Speaker 1: and to try and repair the damage done by four

3150
02:44:19,440 --> 02:44:23,480
Speaker 1: years of Biden appeasement. Hypothetical entirely, but before we go

3151
02:44:23,520 --> 02:44:27,000
Speaker 1: back to the reality of strike list and priorities. Had

3152
02:44:27,240 --> 02:44:32,720
Speaker 1: Barack Obama not gone belly up on Iran in his

3153
02:44:32,800 --> 02:44:35,840
Speaker 1: first term and then pursued the JCPO in his second term,

3154
02:44:36,160 --> 02:44:39,360
Speaker 1: would this regime have already fallen? Did Obama save it?

3155
02:44:41,480 --> 02:44:41,680
Speaker 7: Oh?

3156
02:44:41,680 --> 02:44:44,240
Speaker 15: He saved it several times. I mean two thousand and nine,

3157
02:44:44,280 --> 02:44:46,920
Speaker 15: the last time we remember, well, the first time I

3158
02:44:46,920 --> 02:44:50,880
Speaker 15: remember a mass uprising starting in Iran after what people

3159
02:44:51,000 --> 02:44:53,959
Speaker 15: understood to be a stolen election. They don't have elections

3160
02:44:53,959 --> 02:44:57,320
Speaker 15: in Iran, they have selections in Iran, and you had

3161
02:44:57,360 --> 02:45:00,920
Speaker 15: this sort of mass uprising into Ihran suburb taking place

3162
02:45:00,959 --> 02:45:03,760
Speaker 15: it was an upper middle class revolt, and they put

3163
02:45:03,800 --> 02:45:06,480
Speaker 15: that down with force. And Barack Obama sent the love

3164
02:45:06,560 --> 02:45:09,960
Speaker 15: letters behind people's back to the Supreme Leader, saying, I

3165
02:45:10,040 --> 02:45:12,200
Speaker 15: want to have a good relationship. By the way, I've

3166
02:45:12,240 --> 02:45:14,360
Speaker 15: seen those letters when I was working in the White House.

3167
02:45:15,600 --> 02:45:18,160
Speaker 15: This was unimaginable. He abandoned the people in the street

3168
02:45:18,480 --> 02:45:21,160
Speaker 15: because he wanted a nuclear deal, because he internalized this

3169
02:45:21,240 --> 02:45:24,959
Speaker 15: anti American ideology that we were actually to blame for

3170
02:45:25,000 --> 02:45:27,560
Speaker 15: all of our problems with Iran. He believed in the

3171
02:45:27,600 --> 02:45:30,360
Speaker 15: false narrative of a coup that the CIA was behind

3172
02:45:30,440 --> 02:45:33,480
Speaker 15: that the Iranian regime has put out for years. He

3173
02:45:33,600 --> 02:45:35,879
Speaker 15: believed that you need to have a balance of power

3174
02:45:35,920 --> 02:45:38,240
Speaker 15: in the region. Let Iran have a little more power

3175
02:45:38,280 --> 02:45:41,640
Speaker 15: and that would offset the Saudi power and the Israeli power,

3176
02:45:41,680 --> 02:45:44,640
Speaker 15: and then we would have this great equilibrium and Kumba

3177
02:45:44,760 --> 02:45:46,360
Speaker 15: Yah would happen, and we just needed to get to

3178
02:45:46,400 --> 02:45:49,480
Speaker 15: a nuclear deal because hey, you know, they have grievances

3179
02:45:49,560 --> 02:45:51,600
Speaker 15: and we should understand that.

3180
02:45:52,200 --> 02:45:54,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, Richard, it's not very irrelevant, but I want you

3181
02:45:54,800 --> 02:45:59,119
Speaker 1: follow Has anything been heard from the Metternik of MS now,

3182
02:45:59,280 --> 02:46:02,080
Speaker 1: you know Ben Rowe says President Obama said, anything about

3183
02:46:02,080 --> 02:46:04,240
Speaker 1: the massacre of tens of thousands of people. Have the

3184
02:46:04,320 --> 02:46:07,360
Speaker 1: people who kept the eye tolls in power, have they

3185
02:46:07,400 --> 02:46:10,279
Speaker 1: had the decency to come forward and condemn the regime

3186
02:46:10,360 --> 02:46:11,280
Speaker 1: that they parlayed with.

3187
02:46:12,440 --> 02:46:14,959
Speaker 15: No, because they're out there working to media right now

3188
02:46:15,000 --> 02:46:18,039
Speaker 15: to say it's over. Too late, can't do anything, too

3189
02:46:18,120 --> 02:46:21,520
Speaker 15: dangerous to act. Don't know what would come next, could

3190
02:46:21,560 --> 02:46:24,600
Speaker 15: be worse if the Supreme Leader were to go. That's

3191
02:46:24,640 --> 02:46:27,199
Speaker 15: who's behind a lot of those news stories and headlines

3192
02:46:27,240 --> 02:46:28,080
Speaker 15: that you see out there.

3193
02:46:28,120 --> 02:46:29,039
Speaker 3: It's Team Obama.

3194
02:46:29,480 --> 02:46:32,560
Speaker 15: Ben Rhoades out there still trying to hope for a

3195
02:46:32,640 --> 02:46:35,640
Speaker 15: day where they get back to appeasement as the policy

3196
02:46:36,120 --> 02:46:39,480
Speaker 15: with this regime. However, I will say that for many

3197
02:46:39,520 --> 02:46:45,720
Speaker 15: people who are let's call them normal, more mainstream, clearly

3198
02:46:45,840 --> 02:46:48,240
Speaker 15: don't agree with them on a lot of policy issues,

3199
02:46:48,480 --> 02:46:51,280
Speaker 15: but they went along with that because they're Democrats. They

3200
02:46:51,320 --> 02:46:52,920
Speaker 15: believe they this is what we have to do. This

3201
02:46:53,000 --> 02:46:55,960
Speaker 15: is Barack Obama's foreign policy. So I'll get on the train.

3202
02:46:56,600 --> 02:46:59,160
Speaker 15: They are looking at you, you say forty thousand. They're

3203
02:46:59,160 --> 02:47:01,679
Speaker 15: seeing at the numbers right now, they're seeing the pictures.

3204
02:47:01,280 --> 02:47:01,920
Speaker 3: The videos.

3205
02:47:02,640 --> 02:47:05,600
Speaker 15: Those types of people on the left and in the

3206
02:47:05,640 --> 02:47:10,959
Speaker 15: center cannot justify the jcpoaim or cannot justify an appeasement

3207
02:47:10,959 --> 02:47:13,920
Speaker 15: policy anymore. Are looking at this idea of having a

3208
02:47:13,959 --> 02:47:17,600
Speaker 15: negotiation with this regime with everything going on right now, saying,

3209
02:47:17,640 --> 02:47:20,120
Speaker 15: are you kidding me? This regime has to end up

3210
02:47:20,160 --> 02:47:23,640
Speaker 15: in the ash heap of history, the sooner the better. So, yes,

3211
02:47:23,680 --> 02:47:26,680
Speaker 15: there are idealogues out there, and we remember some of

3212
02:47:26,680 --> 02:47:29,280
Speaker 15: them who served in the Biden administration too, like Rob Malley,

3213
02:47:29,360 --> 02:47:31,760
Speaker 15: the Special envoy for Iran. It was kicked out for

3214
02:47:32,080 --> 02:47:34,800
Speaker 15: being a little too close to the Iranians perhaps, and

3215
02:47:34,879 --> 02:47:38,320
Speaker 15: many others. They might be rooting against the Iranian people

3216
02:47:38,400 --> 02:47:41,320
Speaker 15: right now. They might be trying to, in sinister ways,

3217
02:47:41,360 --> 02:47:44,160
Speaker 15: influence the President not to act. But I think the

3218
02:47:44,240 --> 02:47:47,120
Speaker 15: vast majority of Americans see what's happening here, see a

3219
02:47:47,160 --> 02:47:49,680
Speaker 15: red line declared, See what this regime is capable of

3220
02:47:49,720 --> 02:47:53,080
Speaker 15: against its own people, know that it's capable of building

3221
02:47:53,120 --> 02:47:56,480
Speaker 15: more and more missiles to use against us and our allies,

3222
02:47:56,800 --> 02:47:59,119
Speaker 15: and knows that this is a historic time to take

3223
02:47:59,160 --> 02:48:01,080
Speaker 15: advantage of for our national security.

3224
02:48:01,240 --> 02:48:04,120
Speaker 1: So, Richard, there are lots of different definitions of what

3225
02:48:04,160 --> 02:48:08,560
Speaker 1: we're aiming for. Some people want regime negotiations and if

3226
02:48:08,560 --> 02:48:11,960
Speaker 1: we are to believe one of those includes Special Envoy Witkoff,

3227
02:48:12,000 --> 02:48:15,200
Speaker 1: but he's been involved in some headfakes of extraordinary proportions.

3228
02:48:15,520 --> 02:48:19,199
Speaker 1: There's regime coercion, which is what's going on in Venezuela.

3229
02:48:19,280 --> 02:48:22,680
Speaker 1: There's regime evolution, which is what we hope goes on

3230
02:48:22,920 --> 02:48:25,920
Speaker 1: long term in Venezuela, to free and fair elections and

3231
02:48:26,000 --> 02:48:31,240
Speaker 1: democracy return. Then there's regime punishment and just simply a

3232
02:48:31,280 --> 02:48:34,800
Speaker 1: punitive strike saying what you have done here is beyond

3233
02:48:34,800 --> 02:48:37,280
Speaker 1: the bounds of what the West will tolerate. That's what

3234
02:48:37,320 --> 02:48:40,880
Speaker 1: President Trump did in term one visa Viasade when he

3235
02:48:40,959 --> 02:48:45,160
Speaker 1: used chemical weapons. And then there's regime change, which involves

3236
02:48:45,440 --> 02:48:48,240
Speaker 1: Iraq in two thousand and three, Afghanistan in two thousand

3237
02:48:48,280 --> 02:48:52,360
Speaker 1: and one. I'm in favor of at least regime punishment,

3238
02:48:52,520 --> 02:48:55,879
Speaker 1: in other words, just a simple punitive strike, and we

3239
02:48:55,879 --> 02:48:58,560
Speaker 1: can talk about target lists. Where are you in that option,

3240
02:48:58,680 --> 02:49:00,800
Speaker 1: Richard Goldberg? What would you like to see happen as

3241
02:49:00,840 --> 02:49:01,959
Speaker 1: a strategic goal.

3242
02:49:03,720 --> 02:49:06,920
Speaker 15: Yeah, I am at the very least regime punishment, but

3243
02:49:07,000 --> 02:49:10,039
Speaker 15: I would like to see the facilitation of regime collapse

3244
02:49:10,080 --> 02:49:13,520
Speaker 15: in transition. That does not mean boots on the ground.

3245
02:49:13,520 --> 02:49:16,000
Speaker 15: It does not mean an occupation, does not mean the

3246
02:49:16,120 --> 02:49:19,199
Speaker 15: United States literally going to Tehran to do things. Though,

3247
02:49:19,680 --> 02:49:23,920
Speaker 15: if somehow the President and General Kine and Director Ratcliffe

3248
02:49:23,920 --> 02:49:25,480
Speaker 15: can pull a rabbit out of the hat and there's

3249
02:49:25,560 --> 02:49:29,360
Speaker 15: some incredible operation like nobody imagined in Caracas that just

3250
02:49:29,360 --> 02:49:32,240
Speaker 15: suddenly happens, I would be impressed with that. I would

3251
02:49:32,240 --> 02:49:34,520
Speaker 15: not believe. I would not be predicting that. It would

3252
02:49:34,520 --> 02:49:37,560
Speaker 15: seem high risk and dangerous.

3253
02:49:37,640 --> 02:49:38,520
Speaker 5: But who knows.

3254
02:49:38,520 --> 02:49:42,800
Speaker 15: This president and this team around him have proven everybody else.

3255
02:49:44,600 --> 02:49:47,320
Speaker 15: We can't really expect the unexpected with their planning at

3256
02:49:47,320 --> 02:49:50,560
Speaker 15: the moment. However, given the normal set of facts in

3257
02:49:50,560 --> 02:49:53,960
Speaker 15: front of us, the parameters that we would imagine what

3258
02:49:54,000 --> 02:49:56,840
Speaker 15: we would be willing to do with this president should

3259
02:49:56,879 --> 02:49:58,720
Speaker 15: be willing to do, and what he should not be

3260
02:49:58,800 --> 02:50:02,440
Speaker 15: willing to do. Given the risk to US personnel, I

3261
02:50:02,480 --> 02:50:05,120
Speaker 15: think it is quite appropriate A to make sure they

3262
02:50:05,120 --> 02:50:07,400
Speaker 15: are punished for going across the red line, but B

3263
02:50:08,440 --> 02:50:11,720
Speaker 15: take this moment, seize this moment to continue to squeeze,

3264
02:50:12,080 --> 02:50:16,039
Speaker 15: to degrade, to dismantle, and the weaker and weaker and

3265
02:50:16,040 --> 02:50:18,879
Speaker 15: weaker they get, the stronger and stronger the people get.

3266
02:50:18,920 --> 02:50:21,360
Speaker 15: And yes, you will see some sort of transition. At

3267
02:50:21,360 --> 02:50:25,280
Speaker 15: some point, this regime cannot continue if banks are collapsing,

3268
02:50:25,760 --> 02:50:29,440
Speaker 15: because the present enforces his thread of twenty five percent

3269
02:50:29,520 --> 02:50:34,240
Speaker 15: tariffs against all neighboring countries of Iran, and the cash

3270
02:50:34,320 --> 02:50:38,280
Speaker 15: flow starts moving, stops moving from daily trade. And you

3271
02:50:38,360 --> 02:50:41,480
Speaker 15: actually use either by naval forces like you saw in Venezuela,

3272
02:50:41,879 --> 02:50:46,400
Speaker 15: or kinetic action or cyber action, some sort of prevention

3273
02:50:46,560 --> 02:50:49,560
Speaker 15: of the oil flowing out of carg Island, you will

3274
02:50:49,800 --> 02:50:52,920
Speaker 15: force an immediate liquidity crisis. You will accelerate what is

3275
02:50:52,959 --> 02:50:55,959
Speaker 15: already a liquidity crisis. More banks will fail, There will

3276
02:50:56,000 --> 02:51:01,280
Speaker 15: be a massive inability to pay the IRGC payroll. That

3277
02:51:01,320 --> 02:51:04,520
Speaker 15: would be be very you know, uncertain for what happens

3278
02:51:04,560 --> 02:51:08,280
Speaker 15: next to that regime alone, just internally with fracturing, if

3279
02:51:08,280 --> 02:51:11,360
Speaker 15: you were to take out kinetically command and control, if

3280
02:51:11,360 --> 02:51:14,680
Speaker 15: you were disrupt communications. At the same time that you

3281
02:51:14,760 --> 02:51:15,520
Speaker 15: also have.

3282
02:51:15,480 --> 02:51:18,280
Speaker 1: To say it, Richard, does the American people and the

3283
02:51:18,280 --> 02:51:20,160
Speaker 1: rest of the world have to see what it is

3284
02:51:20,200 --> 02:51:23,160
Speaker 1: that the United States does as a reaction to the massacre,

3285
02:51:23,280 --> 02:51:25,000
Speaker 1: because if it doesn't, I don't know that the red

3286
02:51:25,040 --> 02:51:27,560
Speaker 1: line isn't erat anyway. I think they have to see.

3287
02:51:27,360 --> 02:51:30,280
Speaker 15: It well, of course they have to see it. You

3288
02:51:30,280 --> 02:51:33,520
Speaker 15: mean you mean, could there just be a cyber event

3289
02:51:33,600 --> 02:51:36,320
Speaker 15: and then you say that's the No, there's no way,

3290
02:51:36,360 --> 02:51:38,560
Speaker 15: there's no way that that is sufficient at this point,

3291
02:51:38,600 --> 02:51:41,640
Speaker 15: based on what the president has has promised, what he

3292
02:51:41,680 --> 02:51:44,360
Speaker 15: has suggested, and what you know, if you're shigen Peing,

3293
02:51:44,400 --> 02:51:47,560
Speaker 15: if you're Vladimir Putin and you're expecting if you were

3294
02:51:47,640 --> 02:51:51,080
Speaker 15: to default now, moving a carrier strike group there, moving

3295
02:51:51,120 --> 02:51:53,400
Speaker 15: all these squadrons, building up a forced posture, and then

3296
02:51:53,440 --> 02:51:55,280
Speaker 15: just saying, hey, I had a cyber event and we'll

3297
02:51:55,280 --> 02:51:57,480
Speaker 15: call it a day. I think that would be laughed

3298
02:51:57,480 --> 02:52:00,480
Speaker 15: out of the room. The president certainly knows that, and

3299
02:52:00,520 --> 02:52:02,360
Speaker 15: I think, you know, we should have a little bit

3300
02:52:02,400 --> 02:52:06,920
Speaker 15: of level setting here. It's not like she and Putin

3301
02:52:07,040 --> 02:52:09,400
Speaker 15: don't believe the president is willing to use force. He

3302
02:52:09,440 --> 02:52:12,200
Speaker 15: has proven it certainly over the last year, and in

3303
02:52:12,240 --> 02:52:16,240
Speaker 15: his first term he has just taken a dictator out

3304
02:52:16,280 --> 02:52:18,520
Speaker 15: of Caracas. I need to have to know he's serious.

3305
02:52:19,040 --> 02:52:21,600
Speaker 15: But you start stopping forcing your red lines, that can

3306
02:52:21,640 --> 02:52:22,280
Speaker 15: change quickly.

3307
02:52:22,840 --> 02:52:25,160
Speaker 1: I'll be right back with Richard Goldberg of the Foundation

3308
02:52:25,240 --> 02:52:27,320
Speaker 1: for the Defensive Democracy that we're going to tell about

3309
02:52:27,360 --> 02:52:30,040
Speaker 1: risk to American personnel in the region, and then we're

3310
02:52:30,080 --> 02:52:31,879
Speaker 1: going to talk about target list. In our last two

3311
02:52:31,920 --> 02:52:35,800
Speaker 1: segments on Today Iran in Focus Hours, they tuned. I'm

3312
02:52:35,840 --> 02:52:39,520
Speaker 1: hughe Hewing. Welcome back America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. The biggest

3313
02:52:39,520 --> 02:52:41,600
Speaker 1: story in the world remains Iran and whether or not

3314
02:52:41,680 --> 02:52:44,480
Speaker 1: the United States strikes and if Israel joins in with it.

3315
02:52:45,160 --> 02:52:48,040
Speaker 1: Richard Goldberg, I want to talk about target sets now.

3316
02:52:48,120 --> 02:52:50,560
Speaker 1: I've asked all of the experts, and I'll ask Kareem

3317
02:52:50,560 --> 02:52:53,119
Speaker 1: when he comes on to finish my week of experts

3318
02:52:53,160 --> 02:52:56,840
Speaker 1: on Iran. Why don't we hit carg Island because it

3319
02:52:56,879 --> 02:52:59,440
Speaker 1: and the two other oil terminals are the only hard

3320
02:52:59,480 --> 02:53:03,080
Speaker 1: currency generators that this regime has to pay its terrorists with.

3321
02:53:03,600 --> 02:53:04,520
Speaker 1: Why don't we do that?

3322
02:53:06,560 --> 02:53:09,359
Speaker 15: This is the number one source of revenue for the regime.

3323
02:53:09,400 --> 02:53:12,560
Speaker 15: If you stop the flow of oil, then you are

3324
02:53:12,720 --> 02:53:15,520
Speaker 15: on an egg timer for how long the regime can survive.

3325
02:53:15,680 --> 02:53:18,039
Speaker 15: I will add that I also think we underestimate the

3326
02:53:18,040 --> 02:53:22,280
Speaker 15: importance of border trade just in its very near circle

3327
02:53:22,400 --> 02:53:25,840
Speaker 15: of influence and neighbors. If you actually stop some of

3328
02:53:25,879 --> 02:53:29,640
Speaker 15: that daily trade and the currency transfers and the cash access,

3329
02:53:29,760 --> 02:53:34,039
Speaker 15: you will also accelerate liquidity crises inside the banking system.

3330
02:53:34,080 --> 02:53:38,039
Speaker 15: But yes, we have long had this option, and obviously

3331
02:53:38,200 --> 02:53:41,680
Speaker 15: on sanctions alone, we saw this happen in Venezuela as well.

3332
02:53:42,160 --> 02:53:45,800
Speaker 15: You have an immediate impact in the market, normal actors,

3333
02:53:45,840 --> 02:53:48,920
Speaker 15: normal corporations, and by the way, even state owned enterprises

3334
02:53:48,959 --> 02:53:52,959
Speaker 15: of China shy away from completing a transaction because they

3335
02:53:52,959 --> 02:53:55,680
Speaker 15: don't want to suffer the blow of a cutoff from

3336
02:53:55,720 --> 02:53:59,400
Speaker 15: the US financial system, which is the punishment under US sanctions.

3337
02:53:59,440 --> 02:54:02,080
Speaker 15: And so for the Chinese at least, they resort to

3338
02:54:02,200 --> 02:54:06,240
Speaker 15: illicit activity. They set up these so called teapot refineries.

3339
02:54:06,600 --> 02:54:10,800
Speaker 15: These are unofficial, sort of supposedly disconnected from state owned enterprises.

3340
02:54:11,200 --> 02:54:13,200
Speaker 15: They have a ghost tanker fleet, just like what you

3341
02:54:13,240 --> 02:54:14,959
Speaker 15: saw in Venezuela. A lot of those, by the way,

3342
02:54:15,000 --> 02:54:17,560
Speaker 15: were the Iranian ghost tanker fleet. When you saw the

3343
02:54:17,640 --> 02:54:20,240
Speaker 15: US seizing them, They seize them with US sanctions attached

3344
02:54:20,240 --> 02:54:22,640
Speaker 15: from the Revolutionary Guard Corps. So you have all these

3345
02:54:22,640 --> 02:54:26,520
Speaker 15: ghost tankers bringing oil out of carg Island, chugging along.

3346
02:54:26,600 --> 02:54:28,720
Speaker 15: We let them go all the way through the Strait,

3347
02:54:28,879 --> 02:54:31,200
Speaker 15: We let them go all the way to China deliver it.

3348
02:54:31,360 --> 02:54:34,199
Speaker 15: We know exactly who they are, where they're coming from,

3349
02:54:34,280 --> 02:54:37,000
Speaker 15: what cargo they got, and when they unload. And by

3350
02:54:37,040 --> 02:54:39,520
Speaker 15: the way, who has the off take agreements after they

3351
02:54:39,600 --> 02:54:44,120
Speaker 15: hit the teapot refineries, the state owned oil companies of China.

3352
02:54:44,560 --> 02:54:47,880
Speaker 15: So we have always had the ability to escalate against

3353
02:54:47,879 --> 02:54:50,520
Speaker 15: Beijing in its sanctions realm to get them to try

3354
02:54:50,520 --> 02:54:54,600
Speaker 15: to cut off the transactions. Obviously, that's complicated in a

3355
02:54:54,760 --> 02:54:57,840
Speaker 15: very complicated Bilatter relationship, and maybe there's reasons in a

3356
02:54:57,879 --> 02:55:00,560
Speaker 15: trade war and other things. We haven't gone there direction.

3357
02:55:01,000 --> 02:55:04,080
Speaker 15: There are other ways to exert that influence. The President

3358
02:55:04,080 --> 02:55:07,000
Speaker 15: has tried a tariff threat now that doesn't seem to

3359
02:55:07,040 --> 02:55:09,280
Speaker 15: have worked so far. We haven't enforced it yet that

3360
02:55:09,320 --> 02:55:12,840
Speaker 15: I've seen in the face of Chinese continuing to ignore

3361
02:55:12,879 --> 02:55:16,000
Speaker 15: that he is now moving a carrier strike group that

3362
02:55:16,040 --> 02:55:18,840
Speaker 15: comes with three destroyers he already had three destroyers on station.

3363
02:55:19,000 --> 02:55:22,640
Speaker 15: Does he envision some sort of naval armada quarantine again

3364
02:55:23,080 --> 02:55:26,039
Speaker 15: like what we saw in Venezuela, to start seizing the

3365
02:55:26,160 --> 02:55:29,039
Speaker 15: very large tankers coming out of carg Island and not

3366
02:55:29,160 --> 02:55:33,279
Speaker 15: let the oil flow, start having contracts canceled and simply

3367
02:55:33,320 --> 02:55:35,439
Speaker 15: de facto stop the oil transaction.

3368
02:55:35,480 --> 02:55:38,320
Speaker 1: From times Richard you're a student of history. We spent

3369
02:55:38,440 --> 02:55:41,119
Speaker 1: a lot of World War Two trying to hit Hitler's

3370
02:55:41,120 --> 02:55:44,520
Speaker 1: capacity to produce oil and to deny him the ability

3371
02:55:44,560 --> 02:55:46,760
Speaker 1: to get to the oil fields and the Soviet Union.

3372
02:55:46,840 --> 02:55:49,920
Speaker 1: Why don't we just blow up the refineries. They can

3373
02:55:49,959 --> 02:55:51,600
Speaker 1: be rebuilt under a new regime.

3374
02:55:54,040 --> 02:55:57,039
Speaker 15: We have that option set. The truth is is that

3375
02:55:57,080 --> 02:56:00,440
Speaker 15: if you go back to the Twelve Day War, like

3376
02:56:00,560 --> 02:56:03,760
Speaker 15: this option set wasn't on the table. And by the way,

3377
02:56:04,160 --> 02:56:06,320
Speaker 15: that target set was on the table for the Israelis

3378
02:56:06,320 --> 02:56:08,880
Speaker 15: as well during twelve days of their own air strikes

3379
02:56:09,200 --> 02:56:12,560
Speaker 15: and with the exception of a couple of fuel depots

3380
02:56:13,240 --> 02:56:17,000
Speaker 15: in an inner near Tehran, they avoided hitting energy infrastructure.

3381
02:56:17,680 --> 02:56:18,400
Speaker 3: Why is that?

3382
02:56:18,920 --> 02:56:21,400
Speaker 15: Why is it that we hesitate to do that? Well,

3383
02:56:22,000 --> 02:56:24,880
Speaker 15: in the end, if you are a military planner, if

3384
02:56:24,879 --> 02:56:28,280
Speaker 15: you're advising the president, you say, well, mister President, if

3385
02:56:28,320 --> 02:56:32,120
Speaker 15: we hit their energy, then they will have a proportional response,

3386
02:56:32,160 --> 02:56:35,080
Speaker 15: which will be to hit other energy, whether that be

3387
02:56:35,160 --> 02:56:37,920
Speaker 15: to mine the strait of horror moves and deny Saudi

3388
02:56:38,000 --> 02:56:41,800
Speaker 15: oil for moving out to the market, or hit Saudi

3389
02:56:41,840 --> 02:56:45,680
Speaker 15: oil infrastructure itself and try to create a massive catastrophic

3390
02:56:45,720 --> 02:56:48,800
Speaker 15: disruption event for the market. A couple of responses to

3391
02:56:48,840 --> 02:56:51,200
Speaker 15: that the President should know about. Number one, then give

3392
02:56:51,240 --> 02:56:53,240
Speaker 15: me at the top of the target list. We're going

3393
02:56:53,280 --> 02:56:56,720
Speaker 15: to hit the missiles, the drones and the IRGC navy

3394
02:56:56,760 --> 02:56:59,320
Speaker 15: first and take that threat off the board. Why do

3395
02:56:59,400 --> 02:57:01,760
Speaker 15: we keep having to be deterred by that threat? And

3396
02:57:01,879 --> 02:57:04,960
Speaker 15: number two, this is a different oil market today because

3397
02:57:04,959 --> 02:57:07,560
Speaker 15: of Donald J. Trump, and we should understand that this

3398
02:57:07,680 --> 02:57:11,359
Speaker 15: is China's pressure point, not ours. Fifty percent of China's

3399
02:57:11,360 --> 02:57:14,800
Speaker 15: oil imports comes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians

3400
02:57:14,840 --> 02:57:17,000
Speaker 15: want to mine that straight. They want to attack Saudi

3401
02:57:17,040 --> 02:57:19,520
Speaker 15: oil won't be good, not saying we won't have a

3402
02:57:19,560 --> 02:57:21,880
Speaker 15: short term price spike because it is a global commodity,

3403
02:57:22,400 --> 02:57:24,240
Speaker 15: but we're not going to run out of oil here.

3404
02:57:24,680 --> 02:57:26,840
Speaker 15: We're gonna be okay, and we'll get the straight back

3405
02:57:26,879 --> 02:57:29,560
Speaker 15: open fast. And I don't think there will be any

3406
02:57:29,560 --> 02:57:33,199
Speaker 15: government facilities left in Tehran afterwards from what the President

3407
02:57:33,200 --> 02:57:34,119
Speaker 15: would do in response.

3408
02:57:35,160 --> 02:57:39,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, Richard, thank you. I've been through a lot of

3409
02:57:39,640 --> 02:57:41,920
Speaker 1: experts and they all say we got to worry about

3410
02:57:41,920 --> 02:57:46,279
Speaker 1: our Golf Cooperation Council allies, and we do. And msz

3411
02:57:47,200 --> 02:57:49,800
Speaker 1: NBC is our best ally and NBS is a rising

3412
02:57:49,840 --> 02:57:52,480
Speaker 1: ally and we got to worry about world roil markets.

3413
02:57:52,800 --> 02:57:55,520
Speaker 1: But Canada's coming online with a lot of heavy crude,

3414
02:57:55,520 --> 02:57:57,720
Speaker 1: and we got a lot of heavy crude, and Venezuela

3415
02:57:57,760 --> 02:57:59,560
Speaker 1: has got a lot of everything that Iran's got. I

3416
02:57:59,800 --> 02:58:01,680
Speaker 1: just don't understand why it's not at the top of

3417
02:58:01,720 --> 02:58:04,600
Speaker 1: the target list. But my last segment with Richard's coming up,

3418
02:58:04,640 --> 02:58:08,400
Speaker 1: because we do have to discuss risk to Americans. Stay

3419
02:58:08,400 --> 02:58:12,720
Speaker 1: tuned on, Hugh Hewett, Welcome back America. On CUE Herett.

3420
02:58:12,800 --> 02:58:15,240
Speaker 1: Richard Goldberg is they senior Fellow at the Foundation for

3421
02:58:15,280 --> 02:58:17,920
Speaker 1: the Defensive Democracies. He's been in Trump one and Trump two.

3422
02:58:17,920 --> 02:58:20,440
Speaker 1: He's an Iran expert. We have a lot of assets

3423
02:58:20,480 --> 02:58:25,520
Speaker 1: in the region. Rich I know that families that people

3424
02:58:25,600 --> 02:58:27,680
Speaker 1: are on the Lincoln, and I've had family on the Lincoln,

3425
02:58:27,720 --> 02:58:30,440
Speaker 1: though not right now, are wondering, Hey, can they hit

3426
02:58:30,480 --> 02:58:33,400
Speaker 1: the Lincoln? Can they hit the destroyers? Can they hit

3427
02:58:33,080 --> 02:58:37,480
Speaker 1: our base? And cutter? We saw a demonstration attack after

3428
02:58:37,800 --> 02:58:41,520
Speaker 1: midnight hammer. We saw Israel hammered a lot I think

3429
02:58:41,560 --> 02:58:45,680
Speaker 1: thirty dead. We've seen them hit Ali Sad with ballistic missiles,

3430
02:58:45,720 --> 02:58:49,440
Speaker 1: precision strikes on Alisad and whatever year that was that

3431
02:58:49,520 --> 02:58:51,640
Speaker 1: they blew up alisade I had friends and family on

3432
02:58:51,680 --> 02:58:54,760
Speaker 1: Alisada at that might that got off. How much can

3433
02:58:54,760 --> 02:58:57,560
Speaker 1: they hurt us with their ballistic missile capacity?

3434
02:58:59,480 --> 02:59:02,240
Speaker 15: They can deaf not only target US bases in the

3435
02:59:02,280 --> 02:59:05,720
Speaker 15: region through their ballistic missiles, they also have a cruise

3436
02:59:05,720 --> 02:59:09,400
Speaker 15: missile capacity as well. We saw that utilized against the

3437
02:59:09,440 --> 02:59:12,520
Speaker 15: Saudi oil infrastructure back in twenty nineteen, along with drones.

3438
02:59:13,400 --> 02:59:16,640
Speaker 15: So long as we keep our naval forces far away

3439
02:59:17,120 --> 02:59:21,480
Speaker 15: with our standoff capabilities, whether that be Tomahawk strikes or

3440
02:59:21,680 --> 02:59:25,959
Speaker 15: fighter jets off the boat, we should be outside of

3441
02:59:25,959 --> 02:59:29,560
Speaker 15: their striking distance to our naval forces. They do not

3442
02:59:29,720 --> 02:59:32,680
Speaker 15: have much of an air defense left, if any any

3443
02:59:32,760 --> 02:59:35,720
Speaker 15: that would be still there will be accounted for both

3444
02:59:35,760 --> 02:59:39,480
Speaker 15: by the growlers on the aircraft carrier. Those are the

3445
02:59:39,480 --> 02:59:45,560
Speaker 15: electronic warfare fighter squadrons that we have eighteen g's and

3446
02:59:45,600 --> 02:59:47,480
Speaker 15: also the fact that the Israelis sort of took out

3447
02:59:47,520 --> 02:59:50,160
Speaker 15: all of the Russian air defense already, the Iranian knockoff

3448
02:59:50,160 --> 02:59:52,160
Speaker 15: of the Russian air defense. It's not to say you

3449
02:59:52,200 --> 02:59:55,440
Speaker 15: couldn't have an oopsie, but the threat is much lower

3450
02:59:55,520 --> 02:59:56,680
Speaker 15: from an air perspective.

3451
02:59:56,720 --> 03:00:00,680
Speaker 1: If remember the Argentinian has hit that British I can't

3452
03:00:00,680 --> 03:00:02,400
Speaker 1: remember the name of the ship that they that they

3453
03:00:02,440 --> 03:00:03,280
Speaker 1: sunk in the fall.

3454
03:00:03,440 --> 03:00:05,240
Speaker 15: You can't have a total prediction here. You have to

3455
03:00:05,240 --> 03:00:07,360
Speaker 15: there there. There can always be something that goes wrong.

3456
03:00:07,400 --> 03:00:09,720
Speaker 15: There can always be something like you can't believe that happened.

3457
03:00:10,360 --> 03:00:12,720
Speaker 15: But by and large, you do have to be prepared

3458
03:00:12,760 --> 03:00:15,400
Speaker 15: for their missile threat. We have missile defenses available, We

3459
03:00:15,480 --> 03:00:18,120
Speaker 15: have the s M three's on the destroyers, we have

3460
03:00:18,200 --> 03:00:21,840
Speaker 15: some land based patriots and other at our bases in

3461
03:00:21,879 --> 03:00:25,840
Speaker 15: the region. So yes, we would be on force protection

3462
03:00:26,120 --> 03:00:31,080
Speaker 15: condition highest possible level. People in barracks underground, prepared for

3463
03:00:31,120 --> 03:00:35,920
Speaker 15: any sort of retaliation, already moving out most essential critical

3464
03:00:37,000 --> 03:00:41,440
Speaker 15: personnel and platforms to prepare for such a contingency. But

3465
03:00:41,680 --> 03:00:43,440
Speaker 15: that goes back to the fact that if you have

3466
03:00:43,480 --> 03:00:46,440
Speaker 15: a target list and you are most afraid of that

3467
03:00:46,520 --> 03:00:50,440
Speaker 15: retaliatory capability, then you want to mitigate that from the start.

3468
03:00:50,560 --> 03:00:52,680
Speaker 15: You want to go after all the underground facilities where

3469
03:00:52,680 --> 03:00:55,440
Speaker 15: they store their missiles. If there is a launch, we

3470
03:00:55,480 --> 03:00:58,000
Speaker 15: will detect the launch immediately and take out the launchers.

3471
03:00:58,000 --> 03:01:00,920
Speaker 15: That's what the Israelis did very effectively during the Twelve

3472
03:01:00,959 --> 03:01:03,760
Speaker 15: Day War. If you see fast boats going around in

3473
03:01:03,840 --> 03:01:05,800
Speaker 15: the gulf, there should be a shoot on site or

3474
03:01:05,959 --> 03:01:08,920
Speaker 15: get rid of the boats. Don't hesitate if you see

3475
03:01:08,920 --> 03:01:12,720
Speaker 15: anything that looks like mining. Shoot the boats, you know,

3476
03:01:12,800 --> 03:01:15,960
Speaker 15: take out the poor, take out the IRGC, Navy headquarters

3477
03:01:15,959 --> 03:01:18,720
Speaker 15: and command and control. All of those should be on

3478
03:01:18,760 --> 03:01:20,960
Speaker 15: the top of a target. Okay, Richard, you are looking

3479
03:01:21,000 --> 03:01:23,920
Speaker 15: to do something real. We got four minutes left, so

3480
03:01:23,920 --> 03:01:26,520
Speaker 15: I want to ask you the toughest question. Your phone rang,

3481
03:01:27,160 --> 03:01:30,440
Speaker 15: it's the president. Hey Goldberg. I heard you talking to

3482
03:01:30,480 --> 03:01:32,400
Speaker 15: Hewett and he was quoting me from two weeks ago.

3483
03:01:32,560 --> 03:01:33,199
Speaker 15: Things have changed.

3484
03:01:33,240 --> 03:01:34,520
Speaker 1: What do you want me to do? And do you

3485
03:01:34,520 --> 03:01:36,320
Speaker 1: really think my red line would be a race if

3486
03:01:36,360 --> 03:01:38,680
Speaker 1: I don't do anything? What do you want me to do?

3487
03:01:38,720 --> 03:01:40,560
Speaker 1: And would it really be a red line erased? What

3488
03:01:40,640 --> 03:01:41,240
Speaker 1: do you say to one?

3489
03:01:41,560 --> 03:01:46,400
Speaker 15: Mister president? Everyone's watching. You gave your word, you decided

3490
03:01:46,440 --> 03:01:48,320
Speaker 15: that you were going to set a red line, which

3491
03:01:48,360 --> 03:01:51,960
Speaker 15: was totally appropriate, and that lead line has been obliterated

3492
03:01:52,080 --> 03:01:55,440
Speaker 15: because in the end, these are crazy, maniacal radicals who

3493
03:01:55,440 --> 03:01:57,280
Speaker 15: have tried to kill you, and we'll try to kill

3494
03:01:57,320 --> 03:01:59,280
Speaker 15: you again when you leave office. But you already know

3495
03:01:59,360 --> 03:02:01,640
Speaker 15: that killed a lot of Americans, and they will keep

3496
03:02:01,760 --> 03:02:05,560
Speaker 15: killing Americans. This is your moment in history. Strike them

3497
03:02:05,600 --> 03:02:08,880
Speaker 15: at their most lethal strategic threat to US long term,

3498
03:02:09,240 --> 03:02:11,400
Speaker 15: and then hit them in command and control and senior

3499
03:02:11,480 --> 03:02:14,280
Speaker 15: leadership to try to blind them, disorient them, and give

3500
03:02:14,280 --> 03:02:16,520
Speaker 15: the people a chance. I'm not saying that's going to

3501
03:02:16,560 --> 03:02:18,600
Speaker 15: guarantee it's going to be, you know, the collapse of

3502
03:02:18,600 --> 03:02:21,040
Speaker 15: the regime overnight. I don't know what's going to come next.

3503
03:02:21,080 --> 03:02:23,000
Speaker 15: I can't guarantee you that, but I do know that

3504
03:02:23,040 --> 03:02:25,760
Speaker 15: this regime staying in power, with the ability to lash

3505
03:02:25,760 --> 03:02:28,440
Speaker 15: out and reach the United States or our allies, is

3506
03:02:28,560 --> 03:02:31,000
Speaker 15: very dangerous and very good for China and Russia. And

3507
03:02:31,040 --> 03:02:33,120
Speaker 15: you will do the world and the United States a

3508
03:02:33,160 --> 03:02:34,760
Speaker 15: great favor by taking action now.

3509
03:02:35,160 --> 03:02:37,959
Speaker 1: So Baby says the same thing. Do you want that?

3510
03:02:38,080 --> 03:02:40,000
Speaker 1: Do you want me to have Israel come along or

3511
03:02:40,080 --> 03:02:41,280
Speaker 1: you want them to stay home?

3512
03:02:43,959 --> 03:02:44,119
Speaker 6: Oh?

3513
03:02:44,400 --> 03:02:46,879
Speaker 15: I think that if you have the aircraft carrier of

3514
03:02:46,879 --> 03:02:48,879
Speaker 15: the State of Israel at our disposal, that means we

3515
03:02:48,920 --> 03:02:52,000
Speaker 15: have two carrier strike groups at our disposal. Actually, the

3516
03:02:52,160 --> 03:02:55,880
Speaker 15: entire Israeli Air Force and their clandestine and cyber capabilities

3517
03:02:55,920 --> 03:02:58,480
Speaker 15: inside of Iran. We don't know what they're what they

3518
03:02:58,480 --> 03:03:01,520
Speaker 15: could be capable of doing. If I was the President

3519
03:03:01,600 --> 03:03:04,920
Speaker 15: United States, I would say, what are our unique capabilities

3520
03:03:05,240 --> 03:03:09,080
Speaker 15: against specific targets that these Raelis can't touch, that they

3521
03:03:09,080 --> 03:03:12,320
Speaker 15: can't have impact on? Versus what are the Israelis able

3522
03:03:12,360 --> 03:03:14,720
Speaker 15: to do on their own and continue to contribute. I

3523
03:03:14,720 --> 03:03:16,560
Speaker 15: think it would be crazy not to coordinate this with

3524
03:03:16,600 --> 03:03:17,400
Speaker 15: the Israelis.

3525
03:03:17,760 --> 03:03:20,280
Speaker 1: And then he finishes Richard this way, you know, I

3526
03:03:20,360 --> 03:03:21,840
Speaker 1: like air to one air. No one called me. He

3527
03:03:21,840 --> 03:03:23,560
Speaker 1: doesn't want me to do this. They just put in

3528
03:03:23,600 --> 03:03:26,120
Speaker 1: a strike, he put in radar in Damascus. What do

3529
03:03:26,160 --> 03:03:27,039
Speaker 1: we do about Turkey?

3530
03:03:29,440 --> 03:03:32,200
Speaker 15: Tell him that I hope he really loves what we've

3531
03:03:32,240 --> 03:03:35,480
Speaker 15: done to bring the Iraq Turkey pipeline back online and

3532
03:03:35,520 --> 03:03:39,960
Speaker 15: the revenue that's creating for his regime and for his country,

3533
03:03:40,400 --> 03:03:43,039
Speaker 15: that there's a lot more business to be done, and

3534
03:03:43,280 --> 03:03:46,720
Speaker 15: hopefully he understands that the Islamic Republic of Iran at

3535
03:03:46,720 --> 03:03:49,160
Speaker 15: war with the United States all these decades. People who

3536
03:03:49,200 --> 03:03:51,720
Speaker 15: have tried to kill me personally meet the President United

3537
03:03:51,720 --> 03:03:56,280
Speaker 15: States and have killed many, many, many Americans really shouldn't

3538
03:03:56,280 --> 03:03:58,720
Speaker 15: be around much longer. After what they've done here in

3539
03:03:58,720 --> 03:04:00,200
Speaker 15: the streets and what they continue to do to the

3540
03:04:00,320 --> 03:04:02,920
Speaker 15: United States and our allies. And I hope you understand

3541
03:04:02,920 --> 03:04:05,200
Speaker 15: that as a NATO ally because we could have a

3542
03:04:05,200 --> 03:04:07,680
Speaker 15: great relationship. But I don't think you want to be

3543
03:04:07,760 --> 03:04:09,240
Speaker 15: with those guys, right, all.

3544
03:04:09,240 --> 03:04:12,240
Speaker 1: Right, very last question. I don't think the red lines

3545
03:04:12,280 --> 03:04:15,200
Speaker 1: obliterated yet, because there's a rationale for what he did

3546
03:04:15,200 --> 03:04:16,760
Speaker 1: when he did and what he said when he said,

3547
03:04:16,800 --> 03:04:18,720
Speaker 1: and I think it was very strategic. But it will

3548
03:04:18,760 --> 03:04:21,840
Speaker 1: go away by a date certain. I'm saying Saint Patrick's day.

3549
03:04:22,080 --> 03:04:24,280
Speaker 1: How long does he have to act, Richard before the

3550
03:04:24,360 --> 03:04:27,520
Speaker 1: damage Obama like damage to his credibility is done.

3551
03:04:29,520 --> 03:04:31,800
Speaker 15: I don't like setting a timetable on that. If he

3552
03:04:31,959 --> 03:04:34,800
Speaker 15: is intending to act, and he is continuing to move

3553
03:04:35,160 --> 03:04:37,840
Speaker 15: forces into position to be able to fulfill his objectives,

3554
03:04:38,240 --> 03:04:42,160
Speaker 15: he should use this time to squeeze, destabilize, and disorient

3555
03:04:42,240 --> 03:04:44,040
Speaker 15: that can be done in the economic realm, that can

3556
03:04:44,080 --> 03:04:46,400
Speaker 15: be done in the cyber realm, and then follow on

3557
03:04:46,480 --> 03:04:49,400
Speaker 15: with the kinetic action. So long as that's all sequenced,

3558
03:04:49,720 --> 03:04:51,720
Speaker 15: it's all coming together, it's all part of a strategy.

3559
03:04:52,680 --> 03:04:55,520
Speaker 15: You know, the time is on his side. He should

3560
03:04:55,520 --> 03:04:58,680
Speaker 15: not rush something like this. It should be done correctly.

3561
03:05:00,080 --> 03:05:03,320
Speaker 1: Goldberg from the Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. Thank you.

3562
03:05:03,400 --> 03:05:07,680
Speaker 1: Follow rich on X at Rich Underscore Goldberg at Rich

3563
03:05:07,800 --> 03:05:12,240
Speaker 1: Underscore Goldberg, and visit Foundation for Defensive Democracy that's at

3564
03:05:12,440 --> 03:05:15,480
Speaker 1: fdd on X as well all of their They've got

3565
03:05:15,520 --> 03:05:18,720
Speaker 1: the strongest Iran department inside the Beltway because they've got

3566
03:05:18,760 --> 03:05:21,360
Speaker 1: people who have actually done it, including Rich Goldberg, who's

3567
03:05:21,360 --> 03:05:24,280
Speaker 1: been mister sanctions for a long long time. Thank you, Rich.

3568
03:05:25,400 --> 03:05:28,840
Speaker 1: Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewittt on the Weekend broadcast.

3569
03:05:28,959 --> 03:05:31,640
Speaker 1: Eli Lake joins us. He is, of course the host

3570
03:05:31,680 --> 03:05:35,400
Speaker 1: of the Breaking History podcast, a contributor to the Free Press,

3571
03:05:35,600 --> 03:05:40,720
Speaker 1: an expert on Iran. Eli in the Davos love in

3572
03:05:40,800 --> 03:05:43,920
Speaker 1: among bankers, did anyone have the guts to stand up

3573
03:05:43,959 --> 03:05:47,200
Speaker 1: and say Iran just mowed down fifteen thousand of their

3574
03:05:47,240 --> 03:05:49,720
Speaker 1: people and imprison the same number and is the evilest

3575
03:05:49,760 --> 03:05:50,720
Speaker 1: regime on the planet.

3576
03:05:52,080 --> 03:05:54,280
Speaker 16: It's a really good question. I don't think anybody kind

3577
03:05:54,280 --> 03:05:56,040
Speaker 16: of put it like that, and I think that's exactly

3578
03:05:56,040 --> 03:05:57,360
Speaker 16: how we should think about it.

3579
03:05:58,120 --> 03:05:59,640
Speaker 1: But that.

3580
03:06:02,240 --> 03:06:05,920
Speaker 16: This is the end of the Obama delusion. I have

3581
03:06:06,040 --> 03:06:11,520
Speaker 16: not heard from European capitals that there is a sense

3582
03:06:11,600 --> 03:06:15,560
Speaker 16: or an expectation that there will be new negotiations with

3583
03:06:15,640 --> 03:06:18,840
Speaker 16: Iran over you know, whatever remains of its nuclear program,

3584
03:06:19,440 --> 03:06:24,360
Speaker 16: and eventually we will knit Iran into the global order

3585
03:06:24,800 --> 03:06:28,119
Speaker 16: by investing in that country as long as that regime

3586
03:06:28,160 --> 03:06:31,680
Speaker 16: stays in power. I think at this point, I hope

3587
03:06:31,720 --> 03:06:36,360
Speaker 16: it the regime collapses tomorrow, but even if it doesn't,

3588
03:06:36,400 --> 03:06:38,440
Speaker 16: I just don't think that we're going to get back

3589
03:06:38,520 --> 03:06:43,039
Speaker 16: to what we lived through ten years ago, which was

3590
03:06:43,080 --> 03:06:46,960
Speaker 16: the idea that there would be major corporations investing in Iran.

3591
03:06:47,560 --> 03:06:51,920
Speaker 16: The sanctions were lifted as Iran built up this proxy

3592
03:06:51,959 --> 03:06:55,480
Speaker 16: network throughout the region and continued to have the nuclear option.

3593
03:06:56,360 --> 03:06:59,800
Speaker 1: They did not invite. They ended up disinviting the Foreign Ministry,

3594
03:07:00,200 --> 03:07:03,120
Speaker 1: which was a good move, but they have not designated

3595
03:07:03,120 --> 03:07:05,880
Speaker 1: the IRGC as a terrorist organization at the EU, which

3596
03:07:05,920 --> 03:07:08,640
Speaker 1: is a bad move. The most important question in the

3597
03:07:08,680 --> 03:07:10,879
Speaker 1: world right now, and I think by a lot, I've

3598
03:07:10,920 --> 03:07:13,320
Speaker 1: been on a Canada rant already today because the Mark

3599
03:07:13,360 --> 03:07:17,520
Speaker 1: Carney disgusting address or so cowardly in two faced, But

3600
03:07:18,280 --> 03:07:23,320
Speaker 1: the most important question remains, should Donald Trump hit Iran hard?

3601
03:07:23,440 --> 03:07:25,599
Speaker 1: And Willie? What do you think, Elila?

3602
03:07:27,680 --> 03:07:30,880
Speaker 16: I think he absolutely should. I don't see how I

3603
03:07:31,400 --> 03:07:33,360
Speaker 16: mean listen, nobody can bring to what's going on with

3604
03:07:33,400 --> 03:07:39,120
Speaker 16: Donald Trump. His messaging has been pretty consistent, and I

3605
03:07:39,160 --> 03:07:41,640
Speaker 16: think he tried to kind of create his own way

3606
03:07:41,680 --> 03:07:47,480
Speaker 16: out by saying that they had they had canceled the

3607
03:07:47,560 --> 03:07:49,760
Speaker 16: execution of I think he has a very specific number

3608
03:07:49,760 --> 03:07:52,680
Speaker 16: eight hundred and thirty seven people in the hangings which

3609
03:07:52,680 --> 03:07:56,840
Speaker 16: he's talked about. We saw today that one of the

3610
03:07:56,879 --> 03:08:02,200
Speaker 16: senior kind of judges in Iran said that is not

3611
03:08:02,280 --> 03:08:04,720
Speaker 16: true and that they would be going forward with the executions.

3612
03:08:04,760 --> 03:08:10,600
Speaker 16: Of course, the death toll is horrific. I think at

3613
03:08:10,640 --> 03:08:12,440
Speaker 16: the very least it's four or five thousand, and it

3614
03:08:12,480 --> 03:08:16,959
Speaker 16: could be upwards of twenty five thousand or more. They've

3615
03:08:16,959 --> 03:08:21,200
Speaker 16: turned off the Internet precisely for this reason, so you know,

3616
03:08:22,000 --> 03:08:24,160
Speaker 16: I hope that this is the kind of final straw.

3617
03:08:24,240 --> 03:08:27,600
Speaker 16: And then more importantly, the response from Iran's leaders up

3618
03:08:27,600 --> 03:08:32,280
Speaker 16: into and including Ayatol Ali Khamene has been effectively to

3619
03:08:32,440 --> 03:08:38,120
Speaker 16: taunt Trump, to question his resolve. That that didn't go

3620
03:08:38,240 --> 03:08:40,640
Speaker 16: very well for Nicholas Madoro, it didn't go very well

3621
03:08:40,680 --> 03:08:44,280
Speaker 16: for costum Ulimani, and I think that they in some

3622
03:08:44,320 --> 03:08:46,080
Speaker 16: ways in that respect, they are sealing their fate.

3623
03:08:46,959 --> 03:08:51,840
Speaker 1: My worry is though, that I would have liked to.

3624
03:08:51,800 --> 03:08:55,480
Speaker 16: Have seen something, and I understand military assets have to

3625
03:08:55,480 --> 03:08:59,360
Speaker 16: be in place. I also understand that, according to a

3626
03:08:59,400 --> 03:09:01,760
Speaker 16: lot of reports, and I've heard this too in my reporting,

3627
03:09:02,080 --> 03:09:05,560
Speaker 16: that Trump really does want a comprehensive military option and

3628
03:09:05,600 --> 03:09:11,400
Speaker 16: to go big. So that maybe takes time, but it

3629
03:09:11,440 --> 03:09:15,520
Speaker 16: would have been good to have something two weeks ago,

3630
03:09:15,720 --> 03:09:17,360
Speaker 16: a week and a half ago, when he said help

3631
03:09:17,400 --> 03:09:19,920
Speaker 16: was on the way, because I think the perception is

3632
03:09:19,920 --> 03:09:23,840
Speaker 16: is that there was at least a chance that Trump

3633
03:09:23,879 --> 03:09:26,439
Speaker 16: would back off and would seek.

3634
03:09:26,160 --> 03:09:28,880
Speaker 1: Some kind of deal. I don't think that's going to happen,

3635
03:09:28,920 --> 03:09:31,200
Speaker 1: but that's my Let me go all Sophocles on you.

3636
03:09:31,200 --> 03:09:33,840
Speaker 1: You cannot know how good the day has been until

3637
03:09:33,879 --> 03:09:36,840
Speaker 1: the night has come. And with Donald Trump, the whole

3638
03:09:36,840 --> 03:09:39,360
Speaker 1: Greenland thing, he's an actor. The whole Greenland thing might

3639
03:09:39,400 --> 03:09:41,760
Speaker 1: have been a way to divert attention away from this.

3640
03:09:42,200 --> 03:09:45,040
Speaker 1: But I did have a very smart national security fellow

3641
03:09:45,480 --> 03:09:50,080
Speaker 1: of impeccable credential say we can't hit carg Island and

3642
03:09:50,120 --> 03:09:52,480
Speaker 1: the oil terminals, which is what seems obvious to me,

3643
03:09:52,720 --> 03:09:55,480
Speaker 1: to to keep in the regime alive, because that would

3644
03:09:55,640 --> 03:09:59,600
Speaker 1: possibly bring China in to rebuild it and to embed

3645
03:09:59,680 --> 03:10:01,320
Speaker 1: within Iran. What do you think of that.

3646
03:10:02,520 --> 03:10:04,160
Speaker 16: There's a lot of reasons maybe why you don't hit

3647
03:10:04,160 --> 03:10:06,280
Speaker 16: carg Island. You could also cause an oil shock that

3648
03:10:06,320 --> 03:10:08,720
Speaker 16: would do terrible things to the price of energy, which

3649
03:10:08,760 --> 03:10:12,120
Speaker 16: has been relatively stable and low, and that would have

3650
03:10:12,160 --> 03:10:14,800
Speaker 16: an effect in terms of inflation. So Trump's got to

3651
03:10:14,800 --> 03:10:18,520
Speaker 16: consider that. I think he would have an enormous effect

3652
03:10:18,520 --> 03:10:21,879
Speaker 16: if he just decided to hit the headquarters in regional

3653
03:10:21,959 --> 03:10:24,720
Speaker 16: headquarters for the IRGC, that's the Revolutionary Guard core and

3654
03:10:24,720 --> 03:10:28,920
Speaker 16: the besieging militia and then target started similar to what

3655
03:10:29,800 --> 03:10:33,480
Speaker 16: Israel did, start targeting senior regime officials up to it,

3656
03:10:33,520 --> 03:10:37,720
Speaker 16: including Io Lakamine. You have a number of voices from

3657
03:10:38,080 --> 03:10:41,720
Speaker 16: Iran's opposition, not just on the outside, that are begging

3658
03:10:42,320 --> 03:10:47,600
Speaker 16: the America to hit this supreme leader. What else is

3659
03:10:47,640 --> 03:10:51,720
Speaker 16: there left to talk about at this point? So there

3660
03:10:51,760 --> 03:10:54,760
Speaker 16: are a lot of targets in Iran short of carg Island.

3661
03:10:55,160 --> 03:10:57,680
Speaker 1: The reason I like carg Island is all that money

3662
03:10:57,760 --> 03:11:01,039
Speaker 1: goes to the IERGC. Yeah, Canada is ramping up its

3663
03:11:01,080 --> 03:11:04,680
Speaker 1: export of oil. It's at sixty dollars a barrel, seventy

3664
03:11:04,720 --> 03:11:07,039
Speaker 1: dollars a barrel is not that big of a deal,

3665
03:11:07,080 --> 03:11:09,240
Speaker 1: and it can be we can overproduce. We are just

3666
03:11:09,320 --> 03:11:14,000
Speaker 1: about to hit full American production. But Eli, before I go,

3667
03:11:14,080 --> 03:11:17,840
Speaker 1: I got to ask you the Carnie speech and many

3668
03:11:17,840 --> 03:11:21,840
Speaker 1: of the other Europeans seem to take for granted that

3669
03:11:21,879 --> 03:11:25,240
Speaker 1: the United States will always protect them no matter what

3670
03:11:25,280 --> 03:11:28,280
Speaker 1: they say about us. It's a little bit of what

3671
03:11:28,440 --> 03:11:31,080
Speaker 1: Israel must have to deal with on a daily basis,

3672
03:11:31,200 --> 03:11:33,480
Speaker 1: that they are really the lynchpin to security in the

3673
03:11:33,520 --> 03:11:36,240
Speaker 1: Middle East, but they get dumped on by everyone and

3674
03:11:36,280 --> 03:11:37,279
Speaker 1: it's not pleasant.

3675
03:11:38,560 --> 03:11:43,360
Speaker 16: I would say this, it's empty rhetoric. Canada and Europe

3676
03:11:43,440 --> 03:11:46,960
Speaker 16: do not have the military, do not have the means

3677
03:11:47,440 --> 03:11:51,039
Speaker 16: to protect themselves. That is by our design, and there

3678
03:11:51,080 --> 03:11:53,279
Speaker 16: are good reasons for that. So I wanted to say,

3679
03:11:53,560 --> 03:11:55,560
Speaker 16: I don't want to give Trump a total path. I

3680
03:11:55,560 --> 03:11:57,519
Speaker 16: think that some of the things that he said were outrageous,

3681
03:11:57,840 --> 03:11:59,640
Speaker 16: and the way that he went about the Greenland thing.

3682
03:11:59,720 --> 03:12:01,680
Speaker 16: I think can have but it's not the end of

3683
03:12:01,720 --> 03:12:04,600
Speaker 16: the world, because there is no alternative right now to

3684
03:12:04,840 --> 03:12:09,000
Speaker 16: the alliance with America. I mean the meeting with g

3685
03:12:10,120 --> 03:12:12,560
Speaker 16: and the I'm sorry not even G like the senior

3686
03:12:12,720 --> 03:12:15,119
Speaker 16: Chinese official and the statement that you know things are

3687
03:12:15,120 --> 03:12:18,400
Speaker 16: going in a different direction is absurd and Carney ought

3688
03:12:18,400 --> 03:12:22,040
Speaker 16: to know better. The idea that Canada is going to

3689
03:12:22,120 --> 03:12:25,320
Speaker 16: pursue the kind of relationship it has with China over

3690
03:12:25,360 --> 03:12:27,720
Speaker 16: the United States even under Trump, and I get you

3691
03:12:27,760 --> 03:12:31,640
Speaker 16: know why he's nervous about things, but don't make threats.

3692
03:12:31,680 --> 03:12:34,000
Speaker 16: Don't use that rhetoric because it's just not realistic. It's

3693
03:12:34,000 --> 03:12:34,840
Speaker 16: not in the cards.

3694
03:12:35,320 --> 03:12:37,880
Speaker 1: But they're going to sell a lot of oil to China,

3695
03:12:37,959 --> 03:12:40,120
Speaker 1: which is fine because we have freedom of the sea's

3696
03:12:40,200 --> 03:12:43,720
Speaker 1: guaranteed by the United States Navy, and if that ends,

3697
03:12:44,120 --> 03:12:46,400
Speaker 1: they can only sell it to us, and they only.

3698
03:12:46,440 --> 03:12:48,879
Speaker 1: They don't even spend two percent of their GDP on defense.

3699
03:12:49,000 --> 03:12:51,960
Speaker 1: Eli he talked about his submarines. They got four submarines,

3700
03:12:52,200 --> 03:12:54,560
Speaker 1: the most recent one which was built in twenty fifteen.

3701
03:12:56,560 --> 03:12:59,880
Speaker 16: Listen, I agree, and that some of this is a

3702
03:13:00,040 --> 03:13:02,480
Speaker 16: exposing things. I mean, listen, some of what Trump is

3703
03:13:02,520 --> 03:13:05,520
Speaker 16: saying is I disagree with a lot of it is true.

3704
03:13:06,040 --> 03:13:09,320
Speaker 16: When we were fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yes, it's

3705
03:13:09,320 --> 03:13:11,360
Speaker 16: true when they say the British did fight, especially on

3706
03:13:11,360 --> 03:13:13,800
Speaker 16: the Special operation side, absolutely valiantly.

3707
03:13:13,840 --> 03:13:16,160
Speaker 1: That's and the Canadians lost one hundred and fifty eight people.

3708
03:13:16,520 --> 03:13:18,600
Speaker 16: And also true, but I'm just saying the Italians and

3709
03:13:18,640 --> 03:13:22,160
Speaker 16: the Germans, we couldn't trust them to secure areas they

3710
03:13:22,400 --> 03:13:25,800
Speaker 16: they were they they didn't they There are cultural issues

3711
03:13:25,840 --> 03:13:28,640
Speaker 16: there that are really deep. It's not just about spending

3712
03:13:28,640 --> 03:13:31,800
Speaker 16: more of your GDP. There's it's that there. There's not

3713
03:13:31,879 --> 03:13:34,600
Speaker 16: the kind of military culture that we have in America

3714
03:13:34,720 --> 03:13:39,160
Speaker 16: right now. So those are deep things that our generations

3715
03:13:39,320 --> 03:13:42,120
Speaker 16: are going to be playing out over a generation. But like,

3716
03:13:42,240 --> 03:13:45,240
Speaker 16: let's let's let's be realistic. There is no alternative to

3717
03:13:45,280 --> 03:13:47,879
Speaker 16: American power. Europeans, Canada, they know.

3718
03:13:47,879 --> 03:13:50,480
Speaker 1: That, no matter how many times ago to Davos, I'm

3719
03:13:50,480 --> 03:13:53,480
Speaker 1: in the killed Davos Forever club. What do you think? Eli?

3720
03:13:53,560 --> 03:13:55,280
Speaker 1: Thirty seconds? I agree with Davos.

3721
03:13:55,320 --> 03:13:59,400
Speaker 16: Is is a is a debating society of the plutocratic class.

3722
03:13:59,480 --> 03:14:02,680
Speaker 1: It's a pleasuring of the banking class. And I'm sick

3723
03:14:02,720 --> 03:14:05,560
Speaker 1: of it. Thank you, Eli Lake. Follow him on X

3724
03:14:05,640 --> 03:14:08,760
Speaker 1: at Eli Lake. I'll be right back in America. Stay tuned, Hi,

3725
03:14:08,760 --> 03:14:10,720
Speaker 1: it's you, Hewett. You've heard me talk a lot about

3726
03:14:10,720 --> 03:14:13,480
Speaker 1: consumer cellular how you can switch your carrier and save

3727
03:14:13,560 --> 03:14:18,080
Speaker 1: money without sacrifice. That's because Consumer Cellular uses the same

3728
03:14:18,240 --> 03:14:21,320
Speaker 1: towers as the major carrier. You'll save money every month

3729
03:14:21,360 --> 03:14:24,880
Speaker 1: on your bill without having to sacrifice the quality of coverage.

3730
03:14:25,120 --> 03:14:28,040
Speaker 1: Right now, you get your second month free plus. Folks

3731
03:14:28,040 --> 03:14:29,880
Speaker 1: over are fit to get two lines of unlimited talk,

3732
03:14:29,959 --> 03:14:32,560
Speaker 1: text and data for sixty dollars a month. That's an

3733
03:14:32,600 --> 03:14:35,840
Speaker 1: addition to the second month totally free using promo code

3734
03:14:35,959 --> 03:14:39,440
Speaker 1: Q and are you tired of your wireless company telling

3735
03:14:39,480 --> 03:14:42,600
Speaker 1: you have to talk to an AI robot, download an app,

3736
03:14:42,680 --> 03:14:46,120
Speaker 1: or Horizon pay ten dollars to talk to someone when

3737
03:14:46,160 --> 03:14:50,119
Speaker 1: paying your bill? Yeah? No thanks. Consumer Cellular ranks number

3738
03:14:50,120 --> 03:14:54,360
Speaker 1: one for network coverage and customer satisfaction. According to ACSI,

3739
03:14:54,800 --> 03:14:56,960
Speaker 1: whether you're switching online or over the phone, you'll be

3740
03:14:57,000 --> 03:14:59,480
Speaker 1: working with an actual human being based right here in

3741
03:14:59,520 --> 03:15:02,439
Speaker 1: the US. So switch and get your second month free

3742
03:15:02,640 --> 03:15:05,720
Speaker 1: plus two unlimited lines of sixty dollars. If you're over fifty,

3743
03:15:06,240 --> 03:15:09,720
Speaker 1: go to Consumer Saler dot com, slash hu promo Hugh

3744
03:15:10,320 --> 03:15:13,560
Speaker 1: or call one hundred eight or call one eight hundred

3745
03:15:13,600 --> 03:15:16,800
Speaker 1: four one one forty four fifty four one eight hundred

3746
03:15:16,920 --> 03:15:19,800
Speaker 1: four to one one forty four fifty four. That's one

3747
03:15:19,840 --> 03:15:21,920
Speaker 1: eight hundred four one one forty four to fifty four.

3748
03:15:22,040 --> 03:15:26,240
Speaker 1: Don't forget My code is Hugh. Welcome back in America.

3749
03:15:26,280 --> 03:15:30,040
Speaker 1: I'm Hugh Hewett. A. Greenwald is the executive editor of Commentary,

3750
03:15:30,160 --> 03:15:33,480
Speaker 1: a participant almost every day that he's not on jury

3751
03:15:33,560 --> 03:15:36,480
Speaker 1: duty on the Commentary podcast. I listened today, Eli. You

3752
03:15:36,520 --> 03:15:39,679
Speaker 1: were talking about Iran today as you talk about Minnesota.

3753
03:15:39,800 --> 03:15:42,360
Speaker 1: I've been fixed on Iran because I think it could

3754
03:15:42,440 --> 03:15:47,280
Speaker 1: be a history changing fortnite ahead. Do you think the

3755
03:15:47,320 --> 03:15:48,920
Speaker 1: president is going to order a strike?

3756
03:15:49,879 --> 03:15:53,680
Speaker 17: Well, this is very I'm very glad you've asked me

3757
03:15:53,720 --> 03:15:56,160
Speaker 17: this because I often, Actually, Hugh, I think of you

3758
03:15:57,120 --> 03:16:03,720
Speaker 17: because in the run up to Operation Midnight Hammer, to

3759
03:16:03,840 --> 03:16:08,520
Speaker 17: that strike that Trump ordered, I was on your show

3760
03:16:08,560 --> 03:16:11,200
Speaker 17: and you asked me then if I thought it was

3761
03:16:11,240 --> 03:16:12,400
Speaker 17: going to happen, and.

3762
03:16:12,440 --> 03:16:13,560
Speaker 7: I was quite skeptical.

3763
03:16:13,600 --> 03:16:15,600
Speaker 17: I didn't think it was going to happen, and you

3764
03:16:16,120 --> 03:16:19,560
Speaker 17: were much more certain than I was, and you were correct.

3765
03:16:19,760 --> 03:16:23,600
Speaker 17: And I have now kept your voice in my head

3766
03:16:24,240 --> 03:16:24,959
Speaker 17: in thinking.

3767
03:16:24,760 --> 03:16:25,600
Speaker 7: About these things.

3768
03:16:25,720 --> 03:16:29,440
Speaker 17: And you also have to remember that during Trump's first term,

3769
03:16:30,680 --> 03:16:32,680
Speaker 17: he called up a strike at the last second as

3770
03:16:32,720 --> 03:16:40,040
Speaker 17: well a strike, a strike on Iran because he calculated

3771
03:16:40,080 --> 03:16:43,960
Speaker 17: that the death toll would be too great in response

3772
03:16:44,040 --> 03:16:49,879
Speaker 17: to the Iranians having knocked down unmanned us drowne but

3773
03:16:49,959 --> 03:16:53,520
Speaker 17: that did not stop him from six months later taking

3774
03:16:53,560 --> 03:16:54,760
Speaker 17: out costum soul of money.

3775
03:16:56,160 --> 03:17:00,560
Speaker 7: So I'm I think it's more like leave him not.

3776
03:17:00,680 --> 03:17:01,280
Speaker 3: How about that?

3777
03:17:01,920 --> 03:17:05,200
Speaker 1: Okay? I agree with you, And my reasoning is this.

3778
03:17:05,360 --> 03:17:08,960
Speaker 1: He's a very visual person. He learns by seeing. And

3779
03:17:09,120 --> 03:17:11,400
Speaker 1: John Ratcliffe, who doesn't make any news at all, we

3780
03:17:11,480 --> 03:17:13,760
Speaker 1: never see him every day. I think he's bringing in

3781
03:17:13,800 --> 03:17:16,120
Speaker 1: new pictures of what they did, and I don't think

3782
03:17:16,160 --> 03:17:19,680
Speaker 1: we have quite mentally got our arms around. Channel twenty

3783
03:17:19,680 --> 03:17:23,840
Speaker 1: four in Israel is now reporting upwards of eighty thousand

3784
03:17:23,879 --> 03:17:27,840
Speaker 1: people murdered by the regime. That if John Ratcliffe and

3785
03:17:27,920 --> 03:17:30,879
Speaker 1: our intelligence community gives him pictures of even a tenth

3786
03:17:30,959 --> 03:17:33,440
Speaker 1: of that, remember how we reacted to Syria and the

3787
03:17:33,480 --> 03:17:37,520
Speaker 1: poison gas, he's going to want to punish people. Oh.

3788
03:17:37,600 --> 03:17:40,720
Speaker 17: You know Eleana Johnson, who is the editor of the

3789
03:17:40,800 --> 03:17:43,600
Speaker 17: Washington Free Beacon and who was on the commentary podcast Daily,

3790
03:17:44,080 --> 03:17:45,080
Speaker 17: She made a good point.

3791
03:17:45,120 --> 03:17:46,800
Speaker 7: I think it was today, might have been yesterday.

3792
03:17:48,280 --> 03:17:53,280
Speaker 17: Trump has I mean, it's very natural, good aversion, but

3793
03:17:53,400 --> 03:18:01,720
Speaker 17: has a profound aversion to dead bodies and unnecessary, and

3794
03:18:02,240 --> 03:18:05,880
Speaker 17: I think that he is. And I've also heard that

3795
03:18:05,920 --> 03:18:09,800
Speaker 17: in other contexts from in having to do with with

3796
03:18:09,800 --> 03:18:14,000
Speaker 17: with other international situations, so I think you're onto something.

3797
03:18:14,000 --> 03:18:18,720
Speaker 17: I would also add that if the eighty thousand number

3798
03:18:18,840 --> 03:18:25,240
Speaker 17: is anywhere near accurate, think of that. I just have

3799
03:18:25,360 --> 03:18:32,840
Speaker 17: to say this as compared to the not accurate Hamas

3800
03:18:33,640 --> 03:18:37,320
Speaker 17: Goza Ministry of Health numbers that claim, you know that

3801
03:18:37,480 --> 03:18:43,039
Speaker 17: Israel has killed some I don't know, sixty seventy thousand

3802
03:18:43,120 --> 03:18:48,199
Speaker 17: over the course of two plus years, and we're talking

3803
03:18:48,240 --> 03:18:54,280
Speaker 17: about uh Iran killing nothing but civilians over the over

3804
03:18:54,320 --> 03:18:57,640
Speaker 17: a tiny period of time something around eighty thousand.

3805
03:18:59,200 --> 03:19:03,320
Speaker 1: Needlessness, simplicity of the media in this double standard. They

3806
03:19:03,320 --> 03:19:06,360
Speaker 1: have also made zero complaints that I have seen that

3807
03:19:06,400 --> 03:19:08,959
Speaker 1: the regime won't let them in. That was like a

3808
03:19:09,080 --> 03:19:12,000
Speaker 1: daily refrain about the net and Yahoo government was, Oh,

3809
03:19:12,040 --> 03:19:13,800
Speaker 1: they won't let us into Gaza. What are they hiding?

3810
03:19:13,800 --> 03:19:16,080
Speaker 1: What are they hiding? They won't let us into Iran?

3811
03:19:16,200 --> 03:19:19,280
Speaker 1: And I mean anybody, zero, nobody, And there isn't a

3812
03:19:19,280 --> 03:19:22,280
Speaker 1: Gaza news service. There isn't an Iranian news service because

3813
03:19:22,280 --> 03:19:26,040
Speaker 1: they haven't got an internet. Can you imagine even a

3814
03:19:26,080 --> 03:19:30,000
Speaker 1: semi modern economy without the Internet. Now everybody's going out

3815
03:19:30,040 --> 03:19:31,080
Speaker 1: of business.

3816
03:19:31,600 --> 03:19:34,959
Speaker 17: Yeah, well they look in the internet is death to that,

3817
03:19:35,040 --> 03:19:36,039
Speaker 17: you know, to the regime.

3818
03:19:36,080 --> 03:19:38,720
Speaker 7: They they've got to they've got to go dark to

3819
03:19:39,160 --> 03:19:41,400
Speaker 7: do what to take out their people.

3820
03:19:42,080 --> 03:19:46,680
Speaker 17: And in some sense it worked because it put a

3821
03:19:46,720 --> 03:19:51,840
Speaker 17: temporary cloak over what the regime was up to. Only

3822
03:19:51,959 --> 03:19:56,680
Speaker 17: now we're getting some sense of the full extent of

3823
03:19:56,760 --> 03:19:57,480
Speaker 17: the brutality.

3824
03:19:58,160 --> 03:20:00,800
Speaker 1: Now I got one one big question, I asked Ben

3825
03:20:00,840 --> 03:20:03,680
Speaker 1: Dominis this. I just want to say, the only one

3826
03:20:03,720 --> 03:20:06,680
Speaker 1: of the Obama era people who I've seen say anything

3827
03:20:06,760 --> 03:20:09,640
Speaker 1: with Tommy Veeder was chirping at me that Taco Trump

3828
03:20:10,200 --> 03:20:12,680
Speaker 1: and I can't that the lack of self awareness. They

3829
03:20:12,720 --> 03:20:16,360
Speaker 1: misjudged this regime so badly. If the regime was willing

3830
03:20:16,400 --> 03:20:19,320
Speaker 1: to do this to our own people, imagine what they

3831
03:20:19,360 --> 03:20:22,640
Speaker 1: would have done with nukes to Israel. No one seems

3832
03:20:22,640 --> 03:20:25,560
Speaker 1: to have made that connection that Tim Obama and Tim

3833
03:20:25,640 --> 03:20:28,879
Speaker 1: Biden were wholly wrong about the nature of this regime.

3834
03:20:30,160 --> 03:20:33,240
Speaker 17: Obama is I mean, this all sort of comes from Obama.

3835
03:20:33,240 --> 03:20:34,920
Speaker 7: I mean, I I don't know the Biden ever would

3836
03:20:34,920 --> 03:20:35,840
Speaker 7: have gotten this idea.

3837
03:20:37,120 --> 03:20:40,480
Speaker 17: Had Barack Obama not first been president and Biden up

3838
03:20:40,480 --> 03:20:44,840
Speaker 17: been his vice president. Obama's whole approach to Iran was

3839
03:20:44,920 --> 03:20:49,480
Speaker 17: that the US was somehow talking down to it unwarrantedly,

3840
03:20:50,360 --> 03:20:52,280
Speaker 17: and that what we needed to do was offer the

3841
03:20:52,400 --> 03:20:56,520
Speaker 17: open hand, if you recall, and sort of welcome it

3842
03:20:56,680 --> 03:21:02,600
Speaker 17: back into the community of responsible nations and understand its

3843
03:21:02,640 --> 03:21:08,760
Speaker 17: point of view. This was complete, toxic.

3844
03:21:08,440 --> 03:21:10,240
Speaker 7: Malign garbage, I mean.

3845
03:21:10,480 --> 03:21:14,440
Speaker 17: And when Obama didn't act in two thousand and nine

3846
03:21:15,360 --> 03:21:21,480
Speaker 17: after the regime took violent action against those the Iranians

3847
03:21:21,480 --> 03:21:28,080
Speaker 17: who protested that rigged election, the excuse was, well, the

3848
03:21:28,160 --> 03:21:31,120
Speaker 17: protesters don't want the Americans on their side, it will

3849
03:21:31,160 --> 03:21:32,119
Speaker 17: make them look bad.

3850
03:21:32,680 --> 03:21:33,200
Speaker 7: Nonsense.

3851
03:21:33,240 --> 03:21:37,080
Speaker 17: As we see now, the Iranians are, to the extent

3852
03:21:37,120 --> 03:21:42,560
Speaker 17: that they can reach out, are asking for American help here.

3853
03:21:43,320 --> 03:21:47,680
Speaker 1: So does the left in America not know and doesn't

3854
03:21:47,760 --> 03:21:50,640
Speaker 1: want to learn, or do they know and don't care

3855
03:21:50,720 --> 03:21:53,760
Speaker 1: about the nature of this regime China? They kind of

3856
03:21:53,800 --> 03:21:56,640
Speaker 1: care about Russia for reasons I'm not quite sure, but

3857
03:21:56,680 --> 03:21:58,920
Speaker 1: they don't care about China and the leagers in Hong

3858
03:21:59,000 --> 03:22:01,440
Speaker 1: Kong and Jimmy Lai. They don't care about this regime.

3859
03:22:01,920 --> 03:22:03,439
Speaker 1: They care about themselves.

3860
03:22:05,080 --> 03:22:09,400
Speaker 17: I think liberals generally don't particularly know.

3861
03:22:11,200 --> 03:22:13,680
Speaker 7: Or don't care that much. It's not it's not big

3862
03:22:13,720 --> 03:22:14,280
Speaker 7: on their radar.

3863
03:22:14,760 --> 03:22:18,400
Speaker 17: I think if you're on the left, the honest to

3864
03:22:18,440 --> 03:22:22,400
Speaker 17: goodness left in this country, you don't want to say

3865
03:22:22,440 --> 03:22:25,720
Speaker 17: word against Iron. You've been You've been protesting on their

3866
03:22:25,879 --> 03:22:31,400
Speaker 17: side for two plus years. You've been supporting their terrorist proxies,

3867
03:22:31,760 --> 03:22:39,039
Speaker 17: chanting their terrorist proxies, slogans of extermination. You you believe

3868
03:22:39,920 --> 03:22:41,440
Speaker 17: essentially in their cause.

3869
03:22:43,520 --> 03:22:46,760
Speaker 1: And now you are embarrassed because they are revealed in

3870
03:22:46,800 --> 03:22:49,199
Speaker 1: the full light of day, even though it's a completely

3871
03:22:49,320 --> 03:22:52,960
Speaker 1: dark society. When those lights turn on, a whole lot

3872
03:22:53,000 --> 03:22:55,120
Speaker 1: of video are going to come our way. Y'allsh allend

3873
03:22:55,200 --> 03:22:57,400
Speaker 1: that on that comment online and it's been taunting me

3874
03:22:57,440 --> 03:22:59,720
Speaker 1: ever since. We're going to be up to our next

3875
03:23:00,800 --> 03:23:05,560
Speaker 1: awful video, Hey Greenwald. Follow on at Abe Greenwald. Listen

3876
03:23:05,640 --> 03:23:10,000
Speaker 1: to the commentary podcast every day morning Glaury and even

3877
03:23:10,080 --> 03:23:13,720
Speaker 1: Grace America. I asked promised. I'm joined by Kareem Sajafor

3878
03:23:13,920 --> 03:23:16,920
Speaker 1: of the Carnegie Endowment. Kareem is one of the belt

3879
03:23:16,920 --> 03:23:20,320
Speaker 1: Ways genuine experts on the Islamic Republic of Iran, and

3880
03:23:20,360 --> 03:23:22,640
Speaker 1: he has been tutoring me for at least a decade.

3881
03:23:23,080 --> 03:23:25,760
Speaker 1: A mutual friend introduced us over dinner when I moved

3882
03:23:25,800 --> 03:23:29,199
Speaker 1: back to Washington in twenty sixteen. Had the occasion since

3883
03:23:29,240 --> 03:23:31,200
Speaker 1: then to get up meet with him a couple of

3884
03:23:31,240 --> 03:23:34,640
Speaker 1: times and dig deep into the Islamic Republic. And boy,

3885
03:23:34,680 --> 03:23:36,879
Speaker 1: you're in demand right now, Kareem. First of all, it's

3886
03:23:36,879 --> 03:23:38,640
Speaker 1: good to see you. Thank you for doing this. I

3887
03:23:38,680 --> 03:23:40,680
Speaker 1: know how busy you must be right now. Is the

3888
03:23:40,720 --> 03:23:42,720
Speaker 1: phone just ringing constantly off the hook?

3889
03:23:44,040 --> 03:23:46,760
Speaker 18: It is indeed a very busy time, and I appreciate

3890
03:23:47,320 --> 03:23:48,600
Speaker 18: you inviting me back.

3891
03:23:48,520 --> 03:23:52,280
Speaker 1: To well, welcome back. Can we start by alerting the

3892
03:23:52,320 --> 03:23:55,600
Speaker 1: audience telling me your background. You went to the University

3893
03:23:55,600 --> 03:23:58,840
Speaker 1: of Michigan. We're going to overlook that here at Ohioseate headquarters.

3894
03:23:59,040 --> 03:24:02,360
Speaker 1: But tell your background and how you came to specialize

3895
03:24:02,360 --> 03:24:03,240
Speaker 1: in all things Heran.

3896
03:24:04,879 --> 03:24:07,360
Speaker 18: Sure, so, I was born in the United States, but

3897
03:24:07,440 --> 03:24:10,440
Speaker 18: my parents were originally from Iran.

3898
03:24:10,480 --> 03:24:12,120
Speaker 10: They immigrated to the United States.

3899
03:24:12,120 --> 03:24:16,879
Speaker 18: Most Iranian families in the United States came here nineteen

3900
03:24:16,920 --> 03:24:19,520
Speaker 18: seventy nine or shortly thereafter when they were nineteen seventy

3901
03:24:19,600 --> 03:24:23,120
Speaker 18: nine revolution happened, But my parents had immigrated to the

3902
03:24:23,200 --> 03:24:25,920
Speaker 18: United States a decade prior to that, and so my

3903
03:24:26,560 --> 03:24:30,720
Speaker 18: father was a neurologist. We grew up mostly in Michigan.

3904
03:24:31,160 --> 03:24:34,279
Speaker 18: I went to University of Michigan and Arbor. I played soccer.

3905
03:24:34,400 --> 03:24:38,000
Speaker 18: The first person I met in freshman orientation was Tom Brady,

3906
03:24:38,400 --> 03:24:42,400
Speaker 18: a friendship kich. In hindsight, I should have cultivated and

3907
03:24:43,160 --> 03:24:44,000
Speaker 18: you know, I lived.

3908
03:24:44,120 --> 03:24:44,800
Speaker 10: I grew up.

3909
03:24:44,720 --> 03:24:48,880
Speaker 18: Speaking Persian in our kitchen, I call it kitchen Persian.

3910
03:24:48,920 --> 03:24:50,920
Speaker 18: I wasn't formally schooled in it, but I grew up

3911
03:24:51,360 --> 03:24:55,400
Speaker 18: with English in Persian. And then I spent several years

3912
03:24:55,440 --> 03:24:59,440
Speaker 18: living abroad in college and even in high school. I

3913
03:24:59,480 --> 03:25:02,080
Speaker 18: spent a year living in Mexico. I lived in college

3914
03:25:02,080 --> 03:25:05,360
Speaker 18: in Italy. I wasn't really interested in the Middle East

3915
03:25:05,440 --> 03:25:09,400
Speaker 18: until I felt that things started to change in Iran politically.

3916
03:25:09,480 --> 03:25:12,280
Speaker 18: It looked like there was a political opening in the

3917
03:25:12,360 --> 03:25:17,200
Speaker 18: late nineteen nineties, and so I started to I went

3918
03:25:17,240 --> 03:25:20,280
Speaker 18: to After undergrad, I went to graduate school at the

3919
03:25:20,400 --> 03:25:24,480
Speaker 18: Johns Hopkins School of Advance International Studies. I focused on

3920
03:25:24,520 --> 03:25:27,760
Speaker 18: the Middle East, and the first week of my grad school,

3921
03:25:27,840 --> 03:25:30,000
Speaker 18: nine to eleven happened, and so that was when it

3922
03:25:30,080 --> 03:25:33,160
Speaker 18: was obviously very clear to me that I wanted to

3923
03:25:34,120 --> 03:25:37,600
Speaker 18: dedicate my career to this topic. And Hewett, had you

3924
03:25:37,680 --> 03:25:44,680
Speaker 18: asked me in two thousand and one whether the running

3925
03:25:45,200 --> 03:25:47,959
Speaker 18: regime would look the way it does today, I would

3926
03:25:47,959 --> 03:25:49,960
Speaker 18: have said no, it looked like your own. Even back

3927
03:25:50,000 --> 03:25:52,600
Speaker 18: then was a country which was on the custop change.

3928
03:25:53,160 --> 03:25:56,520
Speaker 18: And so I was based in Tehran with an organization

3929
03:25:56,640 --> 03:25:59,320
Speaker 18: called the International Crisis Group. I was based there for

3930
03:25:59,560 --> 03:26:04,080
Speaker 18: several until I was nearly imprisoned. I was one of

3931
03:26:04,120 --> 03:26:09,240
Speaker 18: the first of the dual nationals that they warned, you know,

3932
03:26:09,440 --> 03:26:12,320
Speaker 18: I came back to the United States, and I hated

3933
03:26:12,360 --> 03:26:14,120
Speaker 18: that warning. I didn't go back to your own, but

3934
03:26:14,200 --> 03:26:17,640
Speaker 18: many of my friends, perhaps more than a dozen, tried

3935
03:26:17,680 --> 03:26:20,240
Speaker 18: to go back to your own, and they spent time

3936
03:26:20,280 --> 03:26:23,119
Speaker 18: in prison. And so for the last two decades now,

3937
03:26:23,240 --> 03:26:27,160
Speaker 18: i've I've been focused on Iran at the Carnegie Down

3938
03:26:27,200 --> 03:26:30,720
Speaker 18: for International Peace. I'm a contributing writer at The Atlantic,

3939
03:26:30,760 --> 03:26:32,519
Speaker 18: and I teach at Georgetown University.

3940
03:26:33,320 --> 03:26:36,120
Speaker 1: So a Gareham, I've told my audience many times I

3941
03:26:36,240 --> 03:26:40,000
Speaker 1: watched the Iranian revolution unfold on a couch in the

3942
03:26:40,000 --> 03:26:43,320
Speaker 1: Western White House with exiled Richard Nixon and Ray Price.

3943
03:26:43,520 --> 03:26:45,760
Speaker 1: We were the writers the former president was doing the

3944
03:26:45,760 --> 03:26:49,160
Speaker 1: book The Real War, and we'd watch every afternoon because

3945
03:26:49,160 --> 03:26:51,320
Speaker 1: the news would come on three hours earlier, and we

3946
03:26:51,360 --> 03:26:54,440
Speaker 1: saw the revolution unfold in real time. Where were you

3947
03:26:54,600 --> 03:26:56,000
Speaker 1: when the revolution unfolded?

3948
03:26:57,160 --> 03:26:58,240
Speaker 10: So I was a young boy.

3949
03:26:58,280 --> 03:27:01,039
Speaker 18: I was born late nineteen seventy, so I was just

3950
03:27:01,080 --> 03:27:03,360
Speaker 18: about two years old when the revolution was happening in

3951
03:27:03,640 --> 03:27:08,920
Speaker 18: the state of Michigan. And you know, it obviously impacted

3952
03:27:09,240 --> 03:27:12,720
Speaker 18: our lives in different ways. So much of our extended

3953
03:27:12,760 --> 03:27:16,080
Speaker 18: family had to flee Iran, all of them at ben

3954
03:27:16,959 --> 03:27:20,240
Speaker 18: and Iran, and our home in Michigan was kind of

3955
03:27:20,560 --> 03:27:21,160
Speaker 18: the safe.

3956
03:27:21,000 --> 03:27:22,000
Speaker 10: Harbor for many of them.

3957
03:27:22,120 --> 03:27:25,800
Speaker 18: So they fled Iran and they would come to stay

3958
03:27:25,840 --> 03:27:28,560
Speaker 18: with us and Michigan prepared until they were able to

3959
03:27:28,800 --> 03:27:33,400
Speaker 18: kind of resettle elsewhere. And I think in my parents

3960
03:27:33,480 --> 03:27:35,959
Speaker 18: said they probably thought maybe the one day they would

3961
03:27:35,959 --> 03:27:38,840
Speaker 18: go back to Iran. But then when the revolution happened,

3962
03:27:39,200 --> 03:27:42,400
Speaker 18: you know, we stayed in the United States. And my

3963
03:27:42,520 --> 03:27:45,760
Speaker 18: father was someone who he was a neurologist, but he

3964
03:27:45,920 --> 03:27:49,640
Speaker 18: was someone who he loved the United States, deeply patriotic American,

3965
03:27:49,720 --> 03:27:53,800
Speaker 18: but he also loved his heritage and his culture, and

3966
03:27:53,879 --> 03:27:56,800
Speaker 18: that duality was very much part of our childhood that

3967
03:27:56,879 --> 03:27:59,000
Speaker 18: we used to always tell us, you know, you guys

3968
03:27:59,040 --> 03:28:01,240
Speaker 18: live in the best country the world, in the United States.

3969
03:28:01,640 --> 03:28:06,400
Speaker 18: But he was so proud of his heritage and Persian

3970
03:28:06,520 --> 03:28:10,160
Speaker 18: poetry and culture, which is so rich because it's you know,

3971
03:28:10,160 --> 03:28:12,800
Speaker 18: it's got twenty five hundred plus years of history.

3972
03:28:13,560 --> 03:28:16,440
Speaker 1: I've only had one other diaspora member on that hadn't

3973
03:28:16,480 --> 03:28:21,400
Speaker 1: been Talablue from FDD. I neglected to ask him. How

3974
03:28:22,240 --> 03:28:26,000
Speaker 1: varied is the Iranian diaspora. Does the regime have any

3975
03:28:26,080 --> 03:28:31,000
Speaker 1: supporters within it, and has it become increasingly militant about

3976
03:28:31,080 --> 03:28:32,280
Speaker 1: making a change in Iran?

3977
03:28:33,680 --> 03:28:37,800
Speaker 18: The regime has virtually no support among the certainly the

3978
03:28:38,000 --> 03:28:41,640
Speaker 18: diaspora in the United States. When polling is done, I

3979
03:28:41,640 --> 03:28:44,760
Speaker 18: think you probably see less than one percent support because

3980
03:28:45,280 --> 03:28:47,600
Speaker 18: if you're a supporter of the regime, you know you

3981
03:28:47,640 --> 03:28:49,480
Speaker 18: want you live in Iran, you don't want to be

3982
03:28:49,520 --> 03:28:50,680
Speaker 18: in the United States.

3983
03:28:51,640 --> 03:28:55,920
Speaker 10: And I think for many years there's been not really

3984
03:28:55,920 --> 03:28:57,040
Speaker 10: a diversity.

3985
03:28:56,520 --> 03:28:59,680
Speaker 18: Of opinion when it comes to people's desired endgame in

3986
03:28:59,680 --> 03:29:04,160
Speaker 18: your among the dads for Ionians, even outside the United States,

3987
03:29:04,200 --> 03:29:07,320
Speaker 18: I would say vast, vast majority of your Oroonians want

3988
03:29:07,360 --> 03:29:10,400
Speaker 18: to see some form of secular democracy.

3989
03:29:11,480 --> 03:29:14,119
Speaker 10: I think the debates have been about.

3990
03:29:13,840 --> 03:29:17,840
Speaker 18: The means to get there, and whether, for example, economic

3991
03:29:17,959 --> 03:29:22,880
Speaker 18: sanctions is a viable or useful tool to try to

3992
03:29:23,160 --> 03:29:27,240
Speaker 18: reach that end of secular democracy, whether military action is

3993
03:29:28,080 --> 03:29:31,240
Speaker 18: a means that people would accept to get to that endgame.

3994
03:29:31,640 --> 03:29:36,200
Speaker 18: And obviously the last month the events in Iran, I

3995
03:29:36,280 --> 03:29:39,680
Speaker 18: think have really altered that debate. Whereas one month ago,

3996
03:29:39,879 --> 03:29:44,039
Speaker 18: two months ago, probably those who supported some type of

3997
03:29:44,120 --> 03:29:47,920
Speaker 18: US military action inside Iran were in the minority, I

3998
03:29:47,920 --> 03:29:50,720
Speaker 18: would argue now, and I haven't seen polling, so I'm

3999
03:29:50,720 --> 03:29:55,160
Speaker 18: not This isn't scientific, but just anecdotal. My guess is

4000
03:29:55,200 --> 03:29:57,840
Speaker 18: that the majority of those who are in the diaspora

4001
03:29:58,760 --> 03:30:01,280
Speaker 18: would like to see President Trump made good on his work.

4002
03:30:02,000 --> 03:30:06,000
Speaker 18: President Trump threatened on eight occasions that if Uron killed protesters,

4003
03:30:06,640 --> 03:30:10,360
Speaker 18: the United States was ready to protect them and take action.

4004
03:30:11,000 --> 03:30:14,680
Speaker 18: And obviously the running regime drove a giant truck through

4005
03:30:14,680 --> 03:30:20,200
Speaker 18: President Trump's redline, they killed as many as thirty thousand protesters.

4006
03:30:20,600 --> 03:30:22,920
Speaker 10: And so I think both within Iran, among.

4007
03:30:22,720 --> 03:30:26,560
Speaker 18: The protesters, and in the diaspora, I would say there's

4008
03:30:26,680 --> 03:30:30,199
Speaker 18: probably a majority consensus, a majority support for some type

4009
03:30:30,200 --> 03:30:31,240
Speaker 18: of US action.

4010
03:30:32,560 --> 03:30:36,040
Speaker 1: Kareem were you shocked by the level of barbarity that

4011
03:30:36,120 --> 03:30:38,560
Speaker 1: the regime employed in the last three weeks. I was

4012
03:30:38,600 --> 03:30:41,000
Speaker 1: one of the eight occasions where the president said help

4013
03:30:41,080 --> 03:30:43,920
Speaker 1: is on the way, keep marching, take over. He was

4014
03:30:44,080 --> 03:30:45,680
Speaker 1: very adamant that we were going to help. So I

4015
03:30:45,720 --> 03:30:47,920
Speaker 1: think we are going to help. But were you shocked

4016
03:30:47,959 --> 03:30:51,680
Speaker 1: by the level to which violence they descended. It's just

4017
03:30:52,360 --> 03:30:56,440
Speaker 1: Bobby are nineteen forty one Masaco of thirty three thousand

4018
03:30:56,520 --> 03:31:00,680
Speaker 1: Jews in Ukraine by the advancing Nazis been anything like

4019
03:31:00,840 --> 03:31:03,720
Speaker 1: this since that, you know.

4020
03:31:03,800 --> 03:31:08,320
Speaker 18: Unfortunately here, I wasn't terribly shocked by the brutality of

4021
03:31:08,360 --> 03:31:11,199
Speaker 18: the regime because at the end of the day, this

4022
03:31:11,600 --> 03:31:14,200
Speaker 18: is a regime which has no friends in the world.

4023
03:31:14,240 --> 03:31:18,360
Speaker 18: They have no great plan b So, in contrast to

4024
03:31:18,840 --> 03:31:22,000
Speaker 18: the Shaw, who didn't want to use a lot of

4025
03:31:22,080 --> 03:31:25,920
Speaker 18: violence against people to stay in power, and both the

4026
03:31:25,959 --> 03:31:29,240
Speaker 18: SHAW and all of its political and military elites, many

4027
03:31:29,280 --> 03:31:31,959
Speaker 18: of them were educated in the United States and Europe.

4028
03:31:32,000 --> 03:31:35,000
Speaker 18: They spoke foreign languages and so they could remake their

4029
03:31:35,040 --> 03:31:38,959
Speaker 18: lives and Los Angeles or London. But the elites of

4030
03:31:39,000 --> 03:31:42,680
Speaker 18: the Islamic Republic, and I told a Harmony himself, have

4031
03:31:43,240 --> 03:31:47,160
Speaker 18: provincial backgrounds. They are not people who are are worldly.

4032
03:31:48,160 --> 03:31:51,520
Speaker 18: This is a regime which is virtually friendless. You know,

4033
03:31:51,560 --> 03:31:55,400
Speaker 18: it's long time allies like the I said regime in Syria,

4034
03:31:55,560 --> 03:31:59,960
Speaker 18: Maduro government in Venezuela. Those guys have been deposed.

4035
03:31:59,480 --> 03:31:59,879
Speaker 10: Or they're out.

4036
03:32:01,200 --> 03:32:05,600
Speaker 18: They have partnerships with countries like China and Russia, but

4037
03:32:05,680 --> 03:32:08,520
Speaker 18: those are not secure partnerships, and so for that reason,

4038
03:32:08,600 --> 03:32:12,959
Speaker 18: they have a killer be killed mentality. And unfortunately, I

4039
03:32:13,080 --> 03:32:16,640
Speaker 18: wasn't terribly surprised that they were willing to employ that

4040
03:32:16,760 --> 03:32:19,760
Speaker 18: kind of brutality to stay in power because you know,

4041
03:32:19,840 --> 03:32:22,200
Speaker 18: what I say about this regime, and I tol a

4042
03:32:22,240 --> 03:32:26,600
Speaker 18: harmony in particular, is that they're homicidal, but they're not suicidal.

4043
03:32:26,640 --> 03:32:30,200
Speaker 18: What's paramount for them is to stay in power, and

4044
03:32:30,240 --> 03:32:33,680
Speaker 18: so that applies here when and I don't want to

4045
03:32:33,680 --> 03:32:37,400
Speaker 18: preempt your questions, but you know, as they're facing a

4046
03:32:37,480 --> 03:32:39,959
Speaker 18: potentially existential threat from the United States right.

4047
03:32:39,879 --> 03:32:43,800
Speaker 1: Now a minute and a half to break correct, what

4048
03:32:43,879 --> 03:32:47,320
Speaker 1: are the spectrum of collapses underway for the people who

4049
03:32:47,320 --> 03:32:49,480
Speaker 1: are actually just living there. They're not part of the regime,

4050
03:32:49,680 --> 03:32:52,480
Speaker 1: they're Persian, they're Runnia, just trying to get along. What

4051
03:32:52,560 --> 03:32:55,440
Speaker 1: are they confronted with right now one minute.

4052
03:32:56,320 --> 03:33:01,200
Speaker 18: So this is a regime which is politically, economically, and

4053
03:33:01,280 --> 03:33:06,199
Speaker 18: socially authoritarian. Every aspects of people's lives are disrupted because

4054
03:33:06,240 --> 03:33:11,440
Speaker 18: they're living under a totalitarian dictatorship that polices their personal lives.

4055
03:33:11,840 --> 03:33:16,199
Speaker 18: There's routine power outages, water shortages, and I think people

4056
03:33:16,240 --> 03:33:20,000
Speaker 18: are just so exhausted from this reality. Is the most

4057
03:33:20,000 --> 03:33:23,240
Speaker 18: sanctioned country in the world, and I think that people

4058
03:33:23,280 --> 03:33:28,560
Speaker 18: are desperate for a transition from an ideological regime to

4059
03:33:29,040 --> 03:33:32,240
Speaker 18: a nation state, the government that prioritizes economic and national

4060
03:33:32,240 --> 03:33:34,160
Speaker 18: interests before revolutionary ideology.

4061
03:33:35,120 --> 03:33:37,760
Speaker 1: I will be right back with Karim sad Japur of

4062
03:33:37,840 --> 03:33:43,240
Speaker 1: the Carnegie Endowment right after these messages, Police State, welcome

4063
03:33:43,240 --> 03:33:46,080
Speaker 1: back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett. Kareem zad Japur is

4064
03:33:46,080 --> 03:33:48,880
Speaker 1: the equal of any Iranian analyst in the United States.

4065
03:33:48,879 --> 03:33:51,840
Speaker 1: He is, of course, very very much in demand right now,

4066
03:33:51,840 --> 03:33:53,760
Speaker 1: and I thank him for making time for the program

4067
03:33:53,800 --> 03:33:56,200
Speaker 1: today on the Sale News Channel and the Salem Radio Network.

4068
03:33:56,800 --> 03:34:01,400
Speaker 1: Kareem can the regime? Is it possible it would just

4069
03:34:01,520 --> 03:34:05,040
Speaker 1: collapse without outside pressure in the form of military force.

4070
03:34:05,400 --> 03:34:09,080
Speaker 1: Given the spectrum of failure, as we talked about, you.

4071
03:34:09,080 --> 03:34:12,360
Speaker 18: Know, anything is possible with these dictatorships. Here, there's an

4072
03:34:12,400 --> 03:34:15,080
Speaker 18: old line that all dictatorships look good until the last

4073
03:34:15,120 --> 03:34:19,279
Speaker 18: five minutes, and many of these authoritarian regimes that looked

4074
03:34:19,280 --> 03:34:23,880
Speaker 18: so strong before, you know, collapse fairly abruptly. So it's

4075
03:34:24,000 --> 03:34:27,880
Speaker 18: my view that even if the United States doesn't take

4076
03:34:27,920 --> 03:34:33,000
Speaker 18: military action, this is a regime which is this current

4077
03:34:33,040 --> 03:34:34,920
Speaker 18: status quo in Iran is not tenable.

4078
03:34:35,959 --> 03:34:38,120
Speaker 1: So there's one hundred and fifty thousand members of the

4079
03:34:38,160 --> 03:34:42,680
Speaker 1: Iranian Revolutionary Guard cores tens of thousands more in the besiege.

4080
03:34:42,680 --> 03:34:49,240
Speaker 1: They're paramilitary, para police thugs. What about the Iranian military,

4081
03:34:49,440 --> 03:34:52,480
Speaker 1: it's ordinary military. Is it radicalized as well? Or is

4082
03:34:52,520 --> 03:34:55,320
Speaker 1: it a military military like the American military?

4083
03:34:56,640 --> 03:34:59,960
Speaker 18: So the military is a conscript military, so it reflec

4084
03:35:00,080 --> 03:35:03,000
Speaker 18: ex Iranian society. I have one one kind of personal

4085
03:35:03,080 --> 03:35:05,720
Speaker 18: anecdote about that. Years ago, when I was living in Tehran,

4086
03:35:06,680 --> 03:35:08,920
Speaker 18: I went with a group of friends to the Caspian

4087
03:35:09,000 --> 03:35:14,080
Speaker 18: Sea and I saw there was some military folks from

4088
03:35:14,120 --> 03:35:18,160
Speaker 18: the regular army, conscript army who were just kind of

4089
03:35:18,160 --> 03:35:23,520
Speaker 18: walking down walking along the shore of the Caspian Sea.

4090
03:35:23,560 --> 03:35:27,800
Speaker 18: And I initially kind of you know, when you see

4091
03:35:28,040 --> 03:35:31,440
Speaker 18: military folks, especially revolutionary guards, and passiege and you're on

4092
03:35:31,600 --> 03:35:35,280
Speaker 18: especially back then, you would freeze and hesitate a little bit.

4093
03:35:35,800 --> 03:35:38,880
Speaker 18: And my my friends kind of continued as they were,

4094
03:35:39,040 --> 03:35:42,560
Speaker 18: including a young woman who wasn't properly covering her hair,

4095
03:35:43,440 --> 03:35:44,959
Speaker 18: and I looked at them and they said, no, don't

4096
03:35:45,000 --> 03:35:47,560
Speaker 18: worry about it. These guys are These guys are for

4097
03:35:47,680 --> 03:35:49,960
Speaker 18: the mooney. They're one of us, you know, from the army.

4098
03:35:50,000 --> 03:35:53,160
Speaker 18: So what the way there is Lono Republic has managed

4099
03:35:53,800 --> 03:35:58,040
Speaker 18: the regular army is that obviously the top commanders have

4100
03:35:58,120 --> 03:36:01,199
Speaker 18: been hand picked by the regimes, so up until.

4101
03:36:00,959 --> 03:36:04,520
Speaker 10: Now they've always been loyal. But the body of that.

4102
03:36:04,440 --> 03:36:08,160
Speaker 18: Military are reflective of Iranian society at large, and I

4103
03:36:08,160 --> 03:36:12,080
Speaker 18: would suspect for the most part, deeply unsatisfied with the

4104
03:36:12,440 --> 03:36:15,000
Speaker 18: status quo, deeply unsatisfied with their lives.

4105
03:36:15,440 --> 03:36:18,040
Speaker 1: So that takes me to my question about if there

4106
03:36:18,080 --> 03:36:21,480
Speaker 1: is military action, what should the United States target and

4107
03:36:21,480 --> 03:36:24,360
Speaker 1: what shouldn't they target? And I'll follow naturally, should they

4108
03:36:24,480 --> 03:36:27,119
Speaker 1: leave the regular Iranian military alone?

4109
03:36:29,000 --> 03:36:31,920
Speaker 18: Listen, I don't want to pretend to like I'm a

4110
03:36:31,959 --> 03:36:35,480
Speaker 18: military expert, and I obviously haven't. What we've learned from

4111
03:36:35,600 --> 03:36:38,920
Speaker 18: so many of US military action over the last two

4112
03:36:38,959 --> 03:36:42,240
Speaker 18: decades in the Middle East, including the Iraq and Afghanistan.

4113
03:36:42,280 --> 03:36:45,080
Speaker 18: So much of it is the execution, and to our credit,

4114
03:36:45,120 --> 03:36:48,160
Speaker 18: to our military's credit, they've done an exceptionally good job,

4115
03:36:48,240 --> 03:36:52,480
Speaker 18: oftentimes with execution. But on first the question of whether

4116
03:36:52,560 --> 03:36:55,200
Speaker 18: to target the regular army, it would seem to me

4117
03:36:55,240 --> 03:36:57,320
Speaker 18: that would be a bad idea because, as I mentioned,

4118
03:36:58,240 --> 03:37:00,480
Speaker 18: this is a conscript army for the more part in

4119
03:37:00,560 --> 03:37:04,480
Speaker 18: reflective of Iranian society, and you don't want anarchy, you

4120
03:37:04,520 --> 03:37:07,959
Speaker 18: don't want total disorder. We saw what happened in Iraq

4121
03:37:08,040 --> 03:37:11,080
Speaker 18: when the Bathist army was disbanded, and I think everyone

4122
03:37:11,120 --> 03:37:14,520
Speaker 18: fears that possibility of anarchy. So I think you would

4123
03:37:14,560 --> 03:37:17,000
Speaker 18: want the regular army to remain intact.

4124
03:37:18,480 --> 03:37:21,920
Speaker 1: Would you want if the United States strikes, what would

4125
03:37:21,959 --> 03:37:24,840
Speaker 1: you like them to strike in what order? I know

4126
03:37:24,920 --> 03:37:28,000
Speaker 1: you're not a military expert, but everybody is talking about this.

4127
03:37:28,160 --> 03:37:31,439
Speaker 1: Adaal Montgomery gave me a very long target list yesterday.

4128
03:37:31,720 --> 03:37:34,039
Speaker 1: But you're the fellow who studies the country. What do

4129
03:37:34,080 --> 03:37:36,520
Speaker 1: you think might bring regime collapse closer?

4130
03:37:38,240 --> 03:37:39,640
Speaker 10: So let me say a couple of things to you.

4131
03:37:39,760 --> 03:37:42,320
Speaker 18: One is that one of the things I would have

4132
03:37:42,440 --> 03:37:46,000
Speaker 18: liked to have seen happened already in fact early days,

4133
03:37:46,000 --> 03:37:49,800
Speaker 18: and the protests would have been to lift this iron

4134
03:37:49,920 --> 03:37:52,959
Speaker 18: digital iron curtain that the regime has subjected people to.

4135
03:37:53,120 --> 03:37:58,439
Speaker 18: They've cut off intnet, satellite connections, they've cut out cellular connections,

4136
03:37:58,480 --> 03:38:02,200
Speaker 18: and activity of the country has been about one percent,

4137
03:38:02,360 --> 03:38:05,240
Speaker 18: So they've slaughtered people in the dark. So to the

4138
03:38:05,320 --> 03:38:11,199
Speaker 18: extent we have capabilities, whether it's kinetic or cyber capabilities,

4139
03:38:11,320 --> 03:38:14,120
Speaker 18: to to tear down that digital iron wall, that might be,

4140
03:38:14,240 --> 03:38:17,040
Speaker 18: that's very, very important, even if that means, for example,

4141
03:38:17,240 --> 03:38:21,439
Speaker 18: because the regime has their own intranet, their state television

4142
03:38:21,520 --> 03:38:26,520
Speaker 18: is functioning okay, their officials are doing TV interviews broadcast

4143
03:38:26,560 --> 03:38:30,240
Speaker 18: to the United States, and so in some ways, you know,

4144
03:38:30,280 --> 03:38:33,560
Speaker 18: one one option is to take out their internet systems,

4145
03:38:33,560 --> 03:38:38,320
Speaker 18: so then they have to plug into to to the

4146
03:38:38,360 --> 03:38:41,080
Speaker 18: system that everyone else uses. So that that's one thing

4147
03:38:41,120 --> 03:38:42,840
Speaker 18: that I would have liked to have seen happen already.

4148
03:38:43,959 --> 03:38:48,279
Speaker 18: Second is, uh, you know, the organs of repression in Iran,

4149
03:38:48,400 --> 03:38:52,360
Speaker 18: whether that's a command and control outposts of the Revolutionary Guards.

4150
03:38:52,400 --> 03:38:55,920
Speaker 18: I think that there's Raelis will certainly want to target

4151
03:38:56,000 --> 03:38:59,720
Speaker 18: their their their missile stock pile because Iran is a

4152
03:38:59,720 --> 03:39:02,840
Speaker 18: country here which really can't control its own skies right now,

4153
03:39:03,160 --> 03:39:06,480
Speaker 18: and you would want to prevent them from from replenishing

4154
03:39:06,520 --> 03:39:07,600
Speaker 18: their missile capacity.

4155
03:39:08,600 --> 03:39:11,680
Speaker 10: Then we start to get into much.

4156
03:39:11,440 --> 03:39:15,080
Speaker 18: More sensitive questions, and obviously the most sensitive one, arguably,

4157
03:39:15,160 --> 03:39:17,879
Speaker 18: I think that the current the Trump administration is probably

4158
03:39:19,160 --> 03:39:22,440
Speaker 18: debating as we speak, is whether to target the Supreme Leader.

4159
03:39:22,640 --> 03:39:26,520
Speaker 18: And you know, I've spoken to folks who served and

4160
03:39:26,640 --> 03:39:29,240
Speaker 18: the first Trump administration who are still close to this one,

4161
03:39:29,240 --> 03:39:32,480
Speaker 18: who believed that if military action is sick and they

4162
03:39:32,520 --> 03:39:35,800
Speaker 18: are likely to target the Supreme Leader eighty six year

4163
03:39:35,840 --> 03:39:40,320
Speaker 18: old tel Ali comedy. The only note of caution, and

4164
03:39:40,400 --> 03:39:43,080
Speaker 18: here I think that, you know, I don't want to

4165
03:39:43,080 --> 03:39:46,560
Speaker 18: claim to speak for people inside Iran, but I think

4166
03:39:47,000 --> 03:39:50,720
Speaker 18: most protesters, those who took to the streets against the regime,

4167
03:39:51,480 --> 03:39:55,200
Speaker 18: welcome some kind of military action. The only note of

4168
03:39:55,240 --> 03:39:58,680
Speaker 18: caution I'd make cure is that we know historically that

4169
03:39:59,600 --> 03:40:03,879
Speaker 18: when if oritarian regimes collapse or when they transition, about

4170
03:40:03,920 --> 03:40:07,640
Speaker 18: four out of five times they unfortunately don't transition to democracy.

4171
03:40:08,400 --> 03:40:11,080
Speaker 18: About four out of five times they transfer, they transition

4172
03:40:11,200 --> 03:40:14,440
Speaker 18: to another form of authoritarian regime. Soviet Union is a

4173
03:40:14,440 --> 03:40:16,600
Speaker 18: good example of that, we went from Soviet Union to

4174
03:40:16,959 --> 03:40:19,480
Speaker 18: Putin's Russia. The Iran of nineteen seventy nine is a

4175
03:40:19,480 --> 03:40:22,200
Speaker 18: good example of that. We went from the shaw to

4176
03:40:22,280 --> 03:40:27,119
Speaker 18: the Islamic Republic. But so I'm not making the argument

4177
03:40:27,200 --> 03:40:31,440
Speaker 18: that military action can transition Iran to Denmark. But I

4178
03:40:31,440 --> 03:40:34,080
Speaker 18: think what people want to see, as I suggested from

4179
03:40:34,080 --> 03:40:36,560
Speaker 18: the asset, they want to see a government that is

4180
03:40:36,600 --> 03:40:40,400
Speaker 18: a national government that puts the economic and national interests

4181
03:40:40,400 --> 03:40:43,600
Speaker 18: of the nation first, not death to America and death

4182
03:40:43,640 --> 03:40:47,040
Speaker 18: to Israel. They want to an a government whose ethos

4183
03:40:47,120 --> 03:40:48,040
Speaker 18: is long live you wrong.

4184
03:40:49,160 --> 03:40:54,119
Speaker 1: So Kareem sajafor do you where do you place their

4185
03:40:54,160 --> 03:40:57,959
Speaker 1: probability now of a military strike by the United States

4186
03:40:58,000 --> 03:41:00,800
Speaker 1: on Iran? And do you have any year that Iran

4187
03:41:00,879 --> 03:41:04,279
Speaker 1: will take a first preemptive strike on, for example, Israel

4188
03:41:04,320 --> 03:41:07,520
Speaker 1: and the Gulf oil fields in the GCC countries.

4189
03:41:09,280 --> 03:41:12,199
Speaker 18: No, I'm skeptical that they will try to take preemptive

4190
03:41:12,200 --> 03:41:15,280
Speaker 18: action because, as I said, this is a regime which

4191
03:41:15,320 --> 03:41:16,920
Speaker 18: is homicidal, not suicidal.

4192
03:41:17,360 --> 03:41:18,080
Speaker 10: And right now, the.

4193
03:41:18,200 --> 03:41:24,680
Speaker 18: United States has convened some of the most elite facets

4194
03:41:24,720 --> 03:41:28,480
Speaker 18: of the American military, whether that's warships or fighter jets,

4195
03:41:29,120 --> 03:41:34,959
Speaker 18: and I'm skeptical that they will want to test President Trump.

4196
03:41:35,040 --> 03:41:38,080
Speaker 18: Given President Trump's history with Iran. You have to remember, Hugh,

4197
03:41:38,160 --> 03:41:42,360
Speaker 18: and you remember it better than anyone. Twenty eighteen, Trump

4198
03:41:42,360 --> 03:41:47,160
Speaker 18: pulled out of the nuclear deal. Twenty twenty assassinated Blossom Sulimani, Iran,

4199
03:41:47,240 --> 03:41:50,959
Speaker 18: some military commander. Last summer, he dropped bunker busters on

4200
03:41:51,040 --> 03:41:55,880
Speaker 18: Iran's nuclear program. And each of these cases people feared

4201
03:41:55,879 --> 03:41:58,040
Speaker 18: that it could be World War three. And in each

4202
03:41:58,080 --> 03:42:01,320
Speaker 18: of these cases, I think President Trump feels his decisions

4203
03:42:01,360 --> 03:42:05,480
Speaker 18: were vindicated. So I don't think he fears Eron, especially

4204
03:42:05,520 --> 03:42:08,199
Speaker 18: now that they don't control their own skies. He thinks

4205
03:42:08,240 --> 03:42:12,240
Speaker 18: they're a paper tiger. So I would argue that the

4206
03:42:12,360 --> 03:42:15,680
Speaker 18: likelihood of him acting again, I would say is perhaps

4207
03:42:15,680 --> 03:42:16,640
Speaker 18: six seven out of ten.

4208
03:42:17,680 --> 03:42:20,080
Speaker 1: I'll be right back with Kareem Sajupor don't go anywhere.

4209
03:42:20,120 --> 03:42:22,960
Speaker 1: America very rare you get an expert like this, so

4210
03:42:23,120 --> 03:42:25,000
Speaker 1: listen very closely to what he has to say. Stay

4211
03:42:25,000 --> 03:42:28,440
Speaker 1: tuned to The Hugh Hewitt Show. Welcome back to America.

4212
03:42:28,520 --> 03:42:32,080
Speaker 1: I'm Hugh Hewitt spending this hour with Kareem Masajapour. He's

4213
03:42:32,080 --> 03:42:34,760
Speaker 1: the first generation of America and his parents emigrated from

4214
03:42:34,800 --> 03:42:38,160
Speaker 1: Iran ten years before the revolution, and he knows the diaspora,

4215
03:42:38,240 --> 03:42:40,959
Speaker 1: and he studies this at the Carnegie Endowment. He's much

4216
03:42:41,000 --> 03:42:44,440
Speaker 1: in demand right now, and I appreciate the time kareem.

4217
03:42:44,959 --> 03:42:48,760
Speaker 1: Iran only hard currency comes from oil. It is exported

4218
03:42:48,800 --> 03:42:51,960
Speaker 1: from cars Island and from two other oil terminals. There's

4219
03:42:51,959 --> 03:42:54,120
Speaker 1: a debate among people that I read and listen to

4220
03:42:54,160 --> 03:42:55,920
Speaker 1: as to whether or not the United States and its

4221
03:42:55,959 --> 03:43:00,560
Speaker 1: allies ought to target those facilities in order to fash

4222
03:43:00,760 --> 03:43:04,120
Speaker 1: the IRGC and the Ayatola and his crony. What do

4223
03:43:04,200 --> 03:43:05,000
Speaker 1: you think.

4224
03:43:06,480 --> 03:43:09,240
Speaker 18: My sense here is, and the President has alluded to

4225
03:43:09,280 --> 03:43:12,360
Speaker 18: this that the kind of template or strategy they have

4226
03:43:12,440 --> 03:43:15,959
Speaker 18: in mind is similar to the Venezuela playbook, which was

4227
03:43:16,080 --> 03:43:21,800
Speaker 18: essentially economic stranglehold, and you know, going after oil exports,

4228
03:43:22,160 --> 03:43:28,080
Speaker 18: going after these ghost fleets of oil ships. And my

4229
03:43:28,320 --> 03:43:31,320
Speaker 18: sense is that that is a more likely outcome than

4230
03:43:32,200 --> 03:43:39,280
Speaker 18: going after bombing Iranian oil installations or refiners, which you know,

4231
03:43:39,360 --> 03:43:45,120
Speaker 18: could could cause real economic devastation to the population. But

4232
03:43:45,160 --> 03:43:49,200
Speaker 18: obviously in the Venezuela strategy that that strategy of you know,

4233
03:43:49,280 --> 03:43:53,360
Speaker 18: economic stranglehold was was a prelude to what became a

4234
03:43:53,360 --> 03:43:57,480
Speaker 18: political decapitation. And and I do think that, you know,

4235
03:43:57,720 --> 03:44:00,880
Speaker 18: based on what the President is said publicly about it,

4236
03:44:00,920 --> 03:44:04,160
Speaker 18: I tota homedy, calling him a sick man, I.

4237
03:44:04,160 --> 03:44:04,840
Speaker 10: To a homedy.

4238
03:44:04,879 --> 03:44:10,840
Speaker 18: We know from you know, FBI statements that Iran has

4239
03:44:10,879 --> 03:44:13,920
Speaker 18: been trying to assassinate President Trump during the ten year

4240
03:44:13,920 --> 03:44:17,920
Speaker 18: of President Biden. And so you know, my sense is

4241
03:44:17,959 --> 03:44:22,760
Speaker 18: that you will see more likely this kind of major

4242
03:44:22,840 --> 03:44:27,520
Speaker 18: economic stranglehold and the hopes that that will lead to

4243
03:44:27,560 --> 03:44:32,800
Speaker 18: either Iran capitulating or some kind of action to force

4244
03:44:32,879 --> 03:44:34,000
Speaker 18: political change in Europe.

4245
03:44:34,760 --> 03:44:38,640
Speaker 1: Now, kareem, after thirty to forty thousand people have been

4246
03:44:39,120 --> 03:44:42,440
Speaker 1: mowed down in the streets and besieged, and revolutionary guard

4247
03:44:42,560 --> 03:44:44,800
Speaker 1: going to the hospitals and shooting people and the bodies

4248
03:44:44,840 --> 03:44:47,000
Speaker 1: are left on the sidewalk with little video we have

4249
03:44:47,080 --> 03:44:51,199
Speaker 1: is horrific. That's gotten out what you can. Is it

4250
03:44:51,240 --> 03:44:54,320
Speaker 1: even fair to expect the Iranian straight to rise up

4251
03:44:54,360 --> 03:44:58,040
Speaker 1: a second time after that kind of a devastating blow

4252
03:44:58,080 --> 03:44:58,720
Speaker 1: from the regime.

4253
03:45:01,000 --> 03:45:05,680
Speaker 18: It's not likely in the immediate term because people are

4254
03:45:05,720 --> 03:45:08,720
Speaker 18: in retreat, you know, they're just in shock, and as

4255
03:45:08,720 --> 03:45:12,600
Speaker 18: I mentioned from the outset, their communication ability is very

4256
03:45:12,640 --> 03:45:15,200
Speaker 18: limited given how the regime has throttled the Internet and

4257
03:45:16,920 --> 03:45:21,480
Speaker 18: satellite television and cellular communication, and so I think they're

4258
03:45:21,480 --> 03:45:24,840
Speaker 18: in retreat. But as I point out to people here,

4259
03:45:24,879 --> 03:45:29,320
Speaker 18: the nineteen seventy nine revolution was a thirteen month process.

4260
03:45:29,480 --> 03:45:34,199
Speaker 18: It essentially began in January seventy eight, and Kumani didn't

4261
03:45:34,280 --> 03:45:37,560
Speaker 18: arrive in Tehran until February nineteen seventy nine, and so

4262
03:45:37,640 --> 03:45:41,560
Speaker 18: we're only really one month into this process. And it's

4263
03:45:41,640 --> 03:45:45,320
Speaker 18: strongly my view that whatever the United States chooses to do,

4264
03:45:46,080 --> 03:45:49,480
Speaker 18: Iran is a country on the cusp of some kind

4265
03:45:49,520 --> 03:45:52,680
Speaker 18: of transformation, because, as I said, not only the society

4266
03:45:52,720 --> 03:45:55,960
Speaker 18: has realized, but even within the regime they've realized that

4267
03:45:56,480 --> 03:45:59,640
Speaker 18: this status quo is not tenable.

4268
03:46:00,680 --> 03:46:04,560
Speaker 1: Krim, how are they even eating that commerce in and

4269
03:46:04,560 --> 03:46:06,720
Speaker 1: out of the country is down to nothing, The real

4270
03:46:06,879 --> 03:46:09,920
Speaker 1: is worth nothing. I don't know what the farmers are doing.

4271
03:46:10,480 --> 03:46:12,600
Speaker 1: Why are the reports you're able to get on the

4272
03:46:12,720 --> 03:46:16,560
Speaker 1: quality of life for the average lower to low class

4273
03:46:16,640 --> 03:46:20,000
Speaker 1: individual in terms of income, It must be horrific.

4274
03:46:21,240 --> 03:46:25,040
Speaker 18: It is horrific because the middle class has been totally decimated,

4275
03:46:25,080 --> 03:46:28,680
Speaker 18: the currency has been totally decimated, and it's there's no

4276
03:46:28,800 --> 03:46:32,680
Speaker 18: rock bottom. It keeps sinking. I'm sure others have pointed out,

4277
03:46:32,680 --> 03:46:36,600
Speaker 18: and you show that the Runian currency visa VI the

4278
03:46:36,680 --> 03:46:40,080
Speaker 18: US dollar has depreciated something like ninety nine point nine

4279
03:46:40,080 --> 03:46:43,480
Speaker 18: percent from nineteen seventy nine to the present. So people

4280
03:46:43,520 --> 03:46:49,360
Speaker 18: are scraping to get by. And what we oftentimes see

4281
03:46:49,440 --> 03:46:52,960
Speaker 18: Hue is only what's happening in Tehran. But you know,

4282
03:46:53,040 --> 03:46:57,320
Speaker 18: perhaps only a quarter or so of the Runians live

4283
03:46:57,600 --> 03:47:01,840
Speaker 18: in the capitol, and I think both economic devastation and

4284
03:47:01,920 --> 03:47:05,560
Speaker 18: the brutality is much greater in the places that we

4285
03:47:06,000 --> 03:47:09,760
Speaker 18: don't see with the same frequency as we see Tehrone.

4286
03:47:09,760 --> 03:47:11,960
Speaker 1: Last question before this break, and then one more question

4287
03:47:12,280 --> 03:47:14,720
Speaker 1: to the people. Believe any of the theology that the

4288
03:47:14,760 --> 03:47:18,840
Speaker 1: Iatolas put forward Kareem or have they just view it

4289
03:47:18,840 --> 03:47:19,720
Speaker 1: as words?

4290
03:47:21,080 --> 03:47:23,880
Speaker 18: You know, I think it's very similar to late eighties

4291
03:47:24,120 --> 03:47:28,039
Speaker 18: Soviet Union, in which not only within the society but

4292
03:47:28,120 --> 03:47:31,879
Speaker 18: within the regime you have very few true believers left

4293
03:47:31,920 --> 03:47:33,560
Speaker 18: in the system. In fact, a friend of mine who

4294
03:47:33,600 --> 03:47:36,200
Speaker 18: was a professor in Tarhron said, at the beginning of

4295
03:47:36,240 --> 03:47:39,800
Speaker 18: the revolution, the regime was eighty percent idiologues and twenty

4296
03:47:39,800 --> 03:47:43,640
Speaker 18: percent Charlatan's and now it's the reverse, only perhaps even

4297
03:47:43,680 --> 03:47:46,600
Speaker 18: within the regime only twenty percent true believers, So in

4298
03:47:46,640 --> 03:47:48,440
Speaker 18: society I would say it's even less than that.

4299
03:47:49,360 --> 03:47:52,560
Speaker 1: I'll be back with one more segment with Kareem Sadjapor.

4300
03:47:52,760 --> 03:47:56,200
Speaker 1: You can follow them on actually a k sajipor and

4301
03:47:56,240 --> 03:47:58,120
Speaker 1: you can read them in the Atlantic. You've got a

4302
03:47:58,120 --> 03:48:01,000
Speaker 1: great competion in the current Atlantic as well at the

4303
03:48:01,080 --> 03:48:06,480
Speaker 1: Karnegie Endowment. Stay tuned, Welcome back America. I'm huge Hewett.

4304
03:48:07,040 --> 03:48:09,320
Speaker 1: I wanted to save the most delicate issue for the

4305
03:48:09,400 --> 03:48:12,040
Speaker 1: last career, which is the role of Israel in anycoming

4306
03:48:12,200 --> 03:48:15,879
Speaker 1: conflict between the United States and Iran. National Security Advisor,

4307
03:48:15,920 --> 03:48:18,640
Speaker 1: the equivalent of national security advisor in Iran, said, if

4308
03:48:18,680 --> 03:48:21,640
Speaker 1: there's any conflict with the United States, we're throwing everything

4309
03:48:21,680 --> 03:48:24,920
Speaker 1: we got at Israel. What do you expect their role

4310
03:48:24,959 --> 03:48:26,640
Speaker 1: to be? What do you want their role to be?

4311
03:48:26,720 --> 03:48:30,080
Speaker 1: Does their participation make it more or less difficult to

4312
03:48:30,080 --> 03:48:30,920
Speaker 1: topple the regime?

4313
03:48:32,680 --> 03:48:36,800
Speaker 18: Well, Israel obviously showed over the last couple of years

4314
03:48:36,800 --> 03:48:41,920
Speaker 18: that militarily they're far superior to Iran, even though Iran

4315
03:48:42,000 --> 03:48:45,200
Speaker 18: is seventy five times larger as a nation state.

4316
03:48:45,280 --> 03:48:48,320
Speaker 10: And so it was Israel which paved.

4317
03:48:48,000 --> 03:48:50,480
Speaker 18: The way for the United States to take action because

4318
03:48:50,480 --> 03:48:53,680
Speaker 18: they took out Iran's air defenses. And going back to

4319
03:48:53,680 --> 03:48:58,160
Speaker 18: what I said earlier about restoring connectivity in Iran, Israel,

4320
03:48:58,920 --> 03:49:04,440
Speaker 18: which has a very phisicated cyber capability, Israel was able

4321
03:49:04,520 --> 03:49:07,840
Speaker 18: to help restore connectivity within Iran. I think it's something

4322
03:49:07,880 --> 03:49:12,920
Speaker 18: that would be greatly appreciated. But they have because they're

4323
03:49:12,920 --> 03:49:15,880
Speaker 18: within missile range of Iran and it's a much smaller country,

4324
03:49:16,280 --> 03:49:18,760
Speaker 18: things are much more delicate for them. And so that's

4325
03:49:18,800 --> 03:49:23,000
Speaker 18: why that's among the many reasons why you have a

4326
03:49:23,120 --> 03:49:26,840
Speaker 18: huge US presence now in the region and everyone is

4327
03:49:27,080 --> 03:49:30,160
Speaker 18: on alert because ultimately Iranian missiles are not going to

4328
03:49:30,200 --> 03:49:33,400
Speaker 18: reach the US home land, but they could indeed go

4329
03:49:33,480 --> 03:49:35,400
Speaker 18: after Israel and cause some real damage.

4330
03:49:36,000 --> 03:49:38,800
Speaker 1: So kareem to wrap this. Everybody in DC talks to

4331
03:49:38,840 --> 03:49:41,440
Speaker 1: you about this. So I'm just curious, off the record,

4332
03:49:41,800 --> 03:49:43,960
Speaker 1: what did the other countries in the region not named

4333
03:49:44,040 --> 03:49:48,040
Speaker 1: Israel in the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United

4334
03:49:48,080 --> 03:49:50,920
Speaker 1: Arab Memorirates got her? What do they want to see happen?

4335
03:49:51,000 --> 03:49:53,160
Speaker 1: Do they want this regime to stay there? It seems

4336
03:49:53,160 --> 03:49:56,240
Speaker 1: like it's an endless source of woes for a region

4337
03:49:56,280 --> 03:49:57,560
Speaker 1: that ought to be booming.

4338
03:50:00,040 --> 03:50:04,120
Speaker 18: I think the only country, major country in the world

4339
03:50:04,160 --> 03:50:07,960
Speaker 18: which benefits from keeping the Lower Republic iround is Russia,

4340
03:50:08,000 --> 03:50:11,920
Speaker 18: because as long as Iran is isolated, it can't exploit

4341
03:50:11,960 --> 03:50:15,800
Speaker 18: its vast natural gas and oil reserves. It doesn't compete

4342
03:50:15,880 --> 03:50:18,440
Speaker 18: with Russia as it should in global energy markets. It's

4343
03:50:18,440 --> 03:50:20,840
Speaker 18: a thorn in the society of the United States. It

4344
03:50:20,960 --> 03:50:24,280
Speaker 18: can't compete with Russia and its historic sphere of influence

4345
03:50:24,360 --> 03:50:28,280
Speaker 18: Central Asia. Obviously, you know, smaller countries like North Korea

4346
03:50:28,440 --> 03:50:30,760
Speaker 18: like to keep it around as well. But the regional countries,

4347
03:50:31,440 --> 03:50:34,520
Speaker 18: I don't think any of them like the status quo

4348
03:50:34,880 --> 03:50:37,840
Speaker 18: of a country on their border that is so deeply

4349
03:50:37,920 --> 03:50:42,520
Speaker 18: ideological and destabilizing. But a lot of them, for various reasons,

4350
03:50:42,720 --> 03:50:45,840
Speaker 18: worry about conflict. They worry that they could be retaliated

4351
03:50:45,880 --> 03:50:49,040
Speaker 18: against in the case of our golf partners in Saide

4352
03:50:49,040 --> 03:50:53,360
Speaker 18: Arabia and Ue the country like Turkey, worries about chaos

4353
03:50:53,400 --> 03:50:58,000
Speaker 18: that could spill over refugees into their territory. So everyone

4354
03:50:58,400 --> 03:51:01,600
Speaker 18: is watching this very careful. But I think most of

4355
03:51:01,600 --> 03:51:04,560
Speaker 18: those regional countries, if they could push a button and

4356
03:51:04,720 --> 03:51:08,800
Speaker 18: have a clean transition to a nationalist government, in Iran

4357
03:51:08,880 --> 03:51:11,640
Speaker 18: rather than an ideological government in Iran. I think the

4358
03:51:11,720 --> 03:51:12,960
Speaker 18: vast majority of them would do that.

4359
03:51:13,760 --> 03:51:16,960
Speaker 1: And is there any worry on your part that Iran

4360
03:51:17,080 --> 03:51:19,280
Speaker 1: is play sleeper sales In the United States, they sent

4361
03:51:19,360 --> 03:51:21,760
Speaker 1: people to assassinate people here before. They've tried to kill

4362
03:51:21,800 --> 03:51:25,080
Speaker 1: President Trump. We know that, But what about a widespread

4363
03:51:25,360 --> 03:51:28,800
Speaker 1: has the law or related network. Have you got concerns there?

4364
03:51:30,200 --> 03:51:32,400
Speaker 18: I'm not too worried about that in the United States.

4365
03:51:33,040 --> 03:51:36,800
Speaker 18: In Europe they have carried out operations and usually here

4366
03:51:37,400 --> 03:51:40,360
Speaker 18: it's not Iranian nationals that are doing that. They pay

4367
03:51:40,840 --> 03:51:46,320
Speaker 18: European Russian criminal gangs or or Pakistani radicals to carry

4368
03:51:46,320 --> 03:51:50,920
Speaker 18: out these activities. So that is, you know, certainly a possibility.

4369
03:51:51,000 --> 03:51:54,600
Speaker 18: But at the moment, you know, I think that given

4370
03:51:54,920 --> 03:51:58,080
Speaker 18: how the news is tightening around their neck, and as

4371
03:51:58,080 --> 03:52:01,360
Speaker 18: you mentioned from the odds, even the Europeans have prescribed

4372
03:52:01,400 --> 03:52:06,080
Speaker 18: them their revolutionary regards as a terrorist organization, I don't

4373
03:52:06,120 --> 03:52:08,560
Speaker 18: think their first instinct is to want to create even

4374
03:52:08,600 --> 03:52:10,040
Speaker 18: more problems for themselves.

4375
03:52:10,320 --> 03:52:13,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, very last question. What is the ceiling? We know

4376
03:52:13,040 --> 03:52:15,760
Speaker 1: it's hit rock bottom and they keep digging a hole

4377
03:52:15,800 --> 03:52:18,400
Speaker 1: into which they can fall off the floor. What's the

4378
03:52:18,440 --> 03:52:21,240
Speaker 1: ceiling for Iran if they were run by even a

4379
03:52:21,280 --> 03:52:23,560
Speaker 1: minimally competent nationalist government.

4380
03:52:24,760 --> 03:52:28,040
Speaker 18: That's a wonderful question, and it is something which I

4381
03:52:28,040 --> 03:52:31,320
Speaker 18: think is obviously in the US national interests. Kissinger once said,

4382
03:52:31,320 --> 03:52:33,920
Speaker 18: their few nations in the world with whom the United

4383
03:52:33,920 --> 03:52:36,840
Speaker 18: States and the United States has more common interest and

4384
03:52:36,920 --> 03:52:39,840
Speaker 18: less reason to world than Iran. And it's my view

4385
03:52:39,880 --> 03:52:44,320
Speaker 18: that given Iran's enormous human capital, it's enormous natural resources,

4386
03:52:44,600 --> 03:52:47,800
Speaker 18: it's very rich history, this should be a G twenty nation.

4387
03:52:48,040 --> 03:52:50,240
Speaker 18: It should be you know, Saudi Arabia, Turkey r G

4388
03:52:50,360 --> 03:52:53,360
Speaker 18: twenty nations. Iran should be in that category. You know,

4389
03:52:53,400 --> 03:52:56,960
Speaker 18: in nineteen seventy eight, q Iran's GDP was are on

4390
03:52:57,040 --> 03:53:00,360
Speaker 18: the same level as Spain and South Korea. And you

4391
03:53:00,400 --> 03:53:02,960
Speaker 18: see where those countries are now and where Iran is now.

4392
03:53:03,000 --> 03:53:06,280
Speaker 18: And it just shows you what a profound difference leadership makes.

4393
03:53:06,280 --> 03:53:09,480
Speaker 18: And I do believe that this country, once it has

4394
03:53:09,600 --> 03:53:13,920
Speaker 18: proper leadership, it could have one of the highest growth

4395
03:53:14,000 --> 03:53:14,320
Speaker 18: rates in.

4396
03:53:14,320 --> 03:53:15,400
Speaker 10: The coming years.

4397
03:53:16,080 --> 03:53:20,400
Speaker 1: And I have bonus question, does the United Nations contribute

4398
03:53:20,560 --> 03:53:26,600
Speaker 1: anything to Iran? Are they protecting World historic sites? Are

4399
03:53:26,600 --> 03:53:28,960
Speaker 1: they doing any kind of relief. Have they been any

4400
03:53:28,960 --> 03:53:30,280
Speaker 1: help at all in Iran?

4401
03:53:32,240 --> 03:53:33,160
Speaker 10: Not terribly.

4402
03:53:33,240 --> 03:53:35,720
Speaker 18: When it comes to the politics, you know, you're only

4403
03:53:35,800 --> 03:53:38,160
Speaker 18: used to have a large Afghan refugee presence, and so

4404
03:53:38,400 --> 03:53:41,160
Speaker 18: United Nations UNHCR was helpful there. And I do want

4405
03:53:41,160 --> 03:53:43,360
Speaker 18: to give a shout out to the new head of UNHCR,

4406
03:53:43,440 --> 03:53:47,360
Speaker 18: the former president of Iraq, Badramsali, was a brilliant and

4407
03:53:47,440 --> 03:53:52,760
Speaker 18: wonderful guy. But to your question, you know, National Geographic

4408
03:53:52,840 --> 03:53:56,760
Speaker 18: Magazine once called Iran the world's first superpower, and so

4409
03:53:56,880 --> 03:54:01,440
Speaker 18: there are enormous, amazing historic site and Iran and it

4410
03:54:01,520 --> 03:54:04,640
Speaker 18: will be, hopefully one day soon a great destination for

4411
03:54:05,440 --> 03:54:07,400
Speaker 18: Western and American tourists.

4412
03:54:07,800 --> 03:54:10,360
Speaker 1: I hope you are right. Kareem Sadupor. Thank you for

4413
03:54:10,440 --> 03:54:13,680
Speaker 1: joining me for this extended period of time. I'll continue

4414
03:54:13,720 --> 03:54:15,760
Speaker 1: to read and follow you on axt You can do that,

4415
03:54:15,880 --> 03:54:19,960
Speaker 1: by the way, America at k Sajipor you cannot miss it.

4416
03:54:20,000 --> 03:54:22,200
Speaker 1: And his new article in the Atlantic is not to

4417
03:54:22,240 --> 03:54:24,680
Speaker 1: be missed as well. One of those experts that you

4418
03:54:24,680 --> 03:54:28,080
Speaker 1: can really trust on everything having to do with Iran.

4419
03:54:28,480 --> 03:54:31,160
Speaker 1: Thank you, Kareem. I want to remind everyone if if

4420
03:54:31,160 --> 03:54:33,160
Speaker 1: you miss part of this interview, we will post it

4421
03:54:33,440 --> 03:54:36,360
Speaker 1: later at tohewit dot com. It'll be over on YouTube

4422
03:54:36,360 --> 03:54:36,840
Speaker 1: as well.