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Speaker 1: Mark Duboitz from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining us here on the Aeron

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Speaker 1: Mullin Show.

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Speaker 2: It's great to have your company.

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Speaker 3: I earned such an arm to me on your show,

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Speaker 3: and thank you for all you've done.

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Speaker 1: Right back at you. Your organization is phenomenal. You've got

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Speaker 1: brilliant people and you deliver a message superbly. So that

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Speaker 1: sets you up for a lot of pressure here, doesn't it.

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Speaker 1: Let's jump straight in the news. We were all waiting for,

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Speaker 1: not just military action, but the death of the Supreme Leader.

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Speaker 1: What are your initial thoughts, feelings, reactions to this.

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Speaker 3: They got him, you know, Aaron, I've been working on

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Speaker 3: the Iran issue for twenty two years. I remember when

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Speaker 3: Trump killed Kassam Sulamaney, the head of the urgency could Force.

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Speaker 3: I was in a state of disbelief and then it

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Speaker 3: transformed into elition. It's nothing compared to today. I mean again,

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Speaker 3: disbelief and to know that the longest serving dictator in

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Speaker 3: the world, who ruled with an iron fist for thirty

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Speaker 3: seven years, is gone and can no longer terrorize the

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Speaker 3: Iranian peace people and the region and the United States

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Speaker 3: and the West is it's a blessing.

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Speaker 1: It's an unfamiliar feeling for people to feel joy it

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Speaker 1: at someone's death, and there are few exceptions in the world.

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Speaker 1: But I'm already seeing some of the reaction from those

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Speaker 1: who will just despise anything that America does, including Americans

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Speaker 1: who seem to hate themselves anything that Israel is involved

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Speaker 1: with they hate passionately. There is not one thing that

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Speaker 1: is good about this person that you could possibly mourn.

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Speaker 1: He is an evil, scumbag terrorist who is not only

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Speaker 1: responsible for the deaths of thousands, if not millions, of

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Speaker 1: his own people, but American blood, Western blood on his hands.

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Speaker 2: This was not a good blow.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Aaron, So look, I mean, the hyperpartisanship in Washington

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Speaker 3: is too bad. I mean, I was not a fan

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Speaker 3: of Barack Obama. I didn't support Barack Obama's foreign policies,

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Speaker 3: but when he killed Osama bin Laden, I stood up

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Speaker 3: with everybody on both sides of the isle and joyously

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Speaker 3: applauded that because bin Laden was also evil incarnate. So

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Speaker 3: I think the partisanship and Trump arrangement syndrome and Israel's

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Speaker 3: derangement syndrome is warping people's moral and intellectual compass, and

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Speaker 3: it's really a shame looking ahead.

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Speaker 2: Trump said in the statement that is only just put out.

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Speaker 1: That this will continue for weeks, if not longer, or

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Speaker 1: as long as it takes, if we start to see

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Speaker 1: IRGC join the people. And I know this was encouraged

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Speaker 1: during the initial protests a couple of months ago and

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Speaker 1: it didn't eventuate. But it looks like more and more

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Speaker 1: of this is happening, and the loss of the Supreme

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Speaker 1: Leader is certainly going to help. Same as military leaders,

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Speaker 1: those who are still living police security forces. If things

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Speaker 1: were to change, military action would no longer be required.

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Speaker 1: How would they determine when the right time is to stop,

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Speaker 1: what needs to be achieved, or what assurances need to

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Speaker 1: be made for the US and Israel to say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: our job here is done.

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Speaker 4: Well, it depends on who you ask.

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Speaker 3: I mean the president to sort of flirt of the

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Speaker 3: idea of regime change, which is not sending you know,

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Speaker 3: five hundred thousand mechanized US troops to invade Iran, but

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Speaker 3: really providing maximum support to the Iranian people, coupling that

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Speaker 3: with maximum pressure on the regime using you know, military pressure,

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Speaker 3: economic pressure, COVID action, cyber using all the tools of

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Speaker 3: American and Israeli power. And then what Trump is also

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Speaker 3: hinting at, which I think is really important, and that

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Speaker 3: is maximum fracturing of the support base of the regime.

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Speaker 3: Because the support base held during the January slaughter of Iranians,

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Speaker 3: when the security services killed thirty two thousand Iranians in

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Speaker 3: two days, was probably the single biggest slaughter in modern

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Speaker 3: history in a two day period since the Nazis killed

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Speaker 3: thirty two thousand Jews of Babyr and Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: So I mean absolute brutality the security.

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Speaker 3: Service is held. Trump making it very clear, you got

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Speaker 3: a choice. You know, you can either stop you're pursuing

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Speaker 3: nuclear weapons, stop building these long range ballist missile, stop

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Speaker 3: supporting terrorism, be a normal nation, or I'm going to

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Speaker 3: eliminate you as well. And I think he said that

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Speaker 3: very clearly, much more clearly than any US president has.

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Speaker 3: And if anybody in Iran is questioning the sincerity of

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Speaker 3: the commander in chief, I think they're making a big mistake.

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Speaker 1: You talk about regime change, and I think that's very

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Speaker 1: obvious to anyone with half a brain. What is the

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Speaker 1: desirable outcome from the US and Israel. But they're still

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Speaker 1: trying to distance themselves from that, aren't they. And they're

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Speaker 1: still trying to say, Netna, who mentioned it specifically to

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Speaker 1: the people, Your future is in your hands now, and

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Speaker 1: Trump has repeatedly said, We're going to kind of hand

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Speaker 1: it to you, not on a platter, but take back

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Speaker 1: your government.

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Speaker 2: It will be there for the taking. Essentially.

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Speaker 1: You can tell that they're still nervous about being responsible

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Speaker 1: for that or choosing who goes in there, which is

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Speaker 1: why they haven't been vocal about endorsing Rezipa Lavia.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the United States and Israel have

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Speaker 3: kind of split the operations and sort of split the mission.

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Speaker 3: I think President Trump has made it clear over and

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Speaker 3: over again that he's most concerned about Iran's reconstituting nuclear

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Speaker 3: weapons program. He's very concerned that the Ranians are rebuilding

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Speaker 3: their missile program, including an intercontinental ballistic rope program, which

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Speaker 3: when it's ready, can target the American homeland, and I

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Speaker 3: think those are the two most dangerous capabilities that Trump

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Speaker 3: wants to degrade and eliminate. The Israelis, on the other hand,

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Speaker 3: very concerned about nuclear and missiles, and you can see

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Speaker 3: their operational tempo over the past number of hours. But

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Speaker 3: they're the ones going after the leadership. I mean, they're

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Speaker 3: the ones who kill Khamene. They're the ones who've taken

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Speaker 3: out forty to fifty of the top security officials on

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Speaker 3: the military side, IRGC, besiege intelligence. So these Raelis are

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Speaker 3: the ones committed, I think, to bringing down the regime.

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Speaker 4: And President Trump.

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Speaker 3: Is happy to let these rallies do it, let the

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Speaker 3: Israelis use their incredible intelligence dominance to achieve that. But

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Speaker 3: President Rome I think, is laser focused on getting rid

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Speaker 3: of this reconstituting nuclear and missile program.

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Speaker 1: And that rhetoric was reflected in comments that JD Vance

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Speaker 1: made again and again prior as well, which was essentially,

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Speaker 1: our concern is only nuclear rather than the deaths of

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Speaker 1: all those people, and that kind of thing. And I

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Speaker 1: understand that from it, you know, I get that it's

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Speaker 1: not America's job to save everyone. But this regime doesn't

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Speaker 1: just kill its own people and doesn't just desire to.

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Speaker 1: As we know, death to America, Death to America. Not

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Speaker 1: in the dark corners, but in parliament, you know, in

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Speaker 1: their version of parliament. It's insane. I'd like to ask

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Speaker 1: you about the broader Middle East. I found it surprising

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Speaker 1: early on the targets that the Uranium regime were retaliating against.

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Speaker 1: We knew Israel would be fast and hard, but this

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Speaker 1: is really going to be fascinating to see how a

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Speaker 1: lot of these regions in the Middle East react to this.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think the Iranians, you know, they've

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Speaker 3: made a mistake, because the Golf countries, at least publicly,

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Speaker 3: were very cautious. They were advocating for President Trump to

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Speaker 3: do a deal and not use military force, though privately

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Speaker 3: some of them, like the Saudis and Emoradis and others,

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Speaker 3: were a little more focused privately on trying to convince

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Speaker 3: the president that if he doesn't strike, Iran would emerge

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Speaker 3: stronger and more dangerous.

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Speaker 4: But the regime struck them.

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Speaker 3: They went after the Amaradis, they went after the Bahrainis, Jordanians,

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Speaker 3: the Qataris. I think this really focused minds in the Gulf,

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Speaker 3: and you've seen in that wave of condemnation of the

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Speaker 3: Islamic Republic coming from countries even like Katar, which they.

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Speaker 1: Are normally quite sympathetic towards them, have a lot in

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Speaker 1: common with them.

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Speaker 4: They do.

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Speaker 3: It's an Islamist regime. Muslim brotherhood led shares a natural

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Speaker 3: gas field, quite sympathetic to the Islamic Republic.

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Speaker 4: But the golf.

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Speaker 3: Countries united in their condemnation of Iranian strikes, and I

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Speaker 3: think it's a good thing. I think that president is

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Speaker 3: enjoying a lot of support from Australia, from your prime minister,

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Speaker 3: who's normally not very good on these issues. From the

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Speaker 3: Canadian Prime Minister Marcaroni.

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Speaker 1: K Darmer was weak as deep as you can. You

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Speaker 1: know that was unsurprising at any level, but how embarrassing

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Speaker 1: to get up and say it as though this was

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Speaker 1: a bad javonna. We have played no part, no part

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Speaker 1: in potentially one of the most monumental occasions in our lifetime.

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Speaker 1: This could be the greatest, biggest thing that happens geopolitically,

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Speaker 1: and old mates standing up there saying we played no part.

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Speaker 2: You're welcome.

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Speaker 4: What yeah, I think.

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Speaker 3: Look, for many years we've enjoyed this special relationship with

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Speaker 3: our British friends. You know, we fought in wars together

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Speaker 3: in World War Wide, World War two, and we've had.

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Speaker 4: A very very strong partnership with them.

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Speaker 3: But this is no longer the you know, our fathers

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Speaker 3: and grandfathers United Kingdom, and under Starmer it's gotten even worse.

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Speaker 3: I think what the President is demonstrating is that Israel

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Speaker 3: is a model ally, and in fact, in the National

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Speaker 3: Defense strategy that the Department of War put out just

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Speaker 3: a couple months ago, they actually used that language that

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Speaker 3: Israel is a model ally that's only to fight and

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Speaker 3: die in its own defense as extraordinary military and intelligence

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Speaker 3: and technology capabilities. And you know, you hear privately from

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Speaker 3: administration officials on all sides of the ideological divide that

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Speaker 3: they would just wish there were more Israels in the world.

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Speaker 3: And I think there is one. I think it's Ukraine,

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Speaker 3: which has been also fighting and dying in its own

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Speaker 3: defense against Vladimir Putin. I think I think Trump and

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Speaker 3: the Republican Party to some extent have made a real

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Speaker 3: mistake and creating a partisan divide there. But Israel as

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Speaker 3: a model ally, it's acknowledged as such. I don't think

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Speaker 3: the UK unfortunately today is a model ally.

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Speaker 2: I'd agree with you on Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: As someone who is banned in Russia for my commentary

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Speaker 1: surrounding Ukraine, I agree entirely.

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Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I'm not in.

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Speaker 1: Agreeance with the administration on the way in which it's

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Speaker 1: tackled that issue. And again you know, rabios each was brilliant,

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Speaker 1: but to have no mention of Ukraine, I thought, was

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Speaker 1: you know, that was disappointing from my perspective the speech

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Speaker 1: that he made.

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Speaker 3: Parent you know, you call balls and strikes to use

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Speaker 3: a baseball analogy. I don't know what the Australian analogy is,

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Speaker 3: but you you know, you're.

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Speaker 2: On this trade. We say we call a spade a spade.

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Speaker 3: Call a spade a spade exactly. And I think you've

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Speaker 3: shown great intellectual integrity to call a spade a spade.

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Speaker 3: And it's very difficult in Washington. It's very difficult in

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Speaker 3: this very divisive environment to support the president when he

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Speaker 3: does things that are right and you know, criticize him

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Speaker 3: when he does.

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Speaker 4: Things that aren't.

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Speaker 3: But there's very few people willing to abandon their ideological

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Speaker 3: affiliations in order to provide moral and intellectual clarity.

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Speaker 1: No, I agree, and I think you know, you can

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Speaker 1: also say I think it was wonderful that he's forced

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Speaker 1: the Europeans to lift their game. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: they needed to lift up to five percent of GDP

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Speaker 1: with defense. They needed to do more to help Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: It shouldn't have just been a burden on a mamyer.

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Speaker 1: I know they've done a lot, but those things can

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Speaker 1: be true as well as I think the US could

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Speaker 1: do a hell of a lot more, and I think

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Speaker 1: it would benefit the US and the rest of the

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Speaker 1: world as well. Looking forward, mark in terms of what

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Speaker 1: happens in Iran, and I mean, there are.

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Speaker 2: So many assumptions.

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Speaker 1: This could all go barely up in the next two hours.

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Speaker 1: We don't know what will occur or how it will

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Speaker 1: play out. But thus far, given the names and the

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Speaker 1: figures that have been killed, it would be hard to

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Speaker 1: see this regime surviving. That doesn't mean it won't. But

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Speaker 1: what happens next? How does a country of ninety million?

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Speaker 1: We know that Rezipo Lavi seems to be very popular

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Speaker 1: in a lot of quarters and the only one name

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Speaker 1: that you see repeatedly mentioned over and over, But how

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Speaker 1: does that then this transfer of power occur and he's saying,

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Speaker 1: I'm just transition, I'm not permanent.

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Speaker 2: How does it work?

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Speaker 4: I think the regime is definitely on its knees.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think over the coming days and weeks

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Speaker 3: we'll see if the United States and.

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Speaker 4: Israel can put it on its back.

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Speaker 3: I mean, as I said, I've been working over two

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Speaker 3: decades on this issue, so I remain cautious because this

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Speaker 3: is a wounded animal. The most dangerous animal in the

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Speaker 3: animal kingdom is a wounded one. So the regime still

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Speaker 3: has the guns and the people don't. And so I

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Speaker 3: am not getting too pollyannish about the coming weeks. But

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Speaker 3: I think there is an opportunity. I mean, I think

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Speaker 3: Rezipoloy has done serious work with his organization and with

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Speaker 3: some of my Iran experts. On day after planning, they

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Speaker 3: put together a something called the Iran Prosperity Project where

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Speaker 3: they pulled in lots of top experts to look at

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Speaker 3: economy and internal security and international relations and the judicial

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Speaker 3: piece of this.

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Speaker 4: So serious work's been done.

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Speaker 3: I hope the US government starts to do more serious

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Speaker 3: work internally on this, because I think we don't want

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Speaker 3: to be caught their pants down and all of a

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Speaker 3: sudden there's a political vacuum that's being filled by bad actors.

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Speaker 1: But the point I had, sorry to interrupt you, Mark,

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Speaker 1: but I had kind of Richard Kemp on a couple

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Speaker 1: of days years ago and he was talking, and as

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Speaker 1: he was talking, I thought, you know, we're thinking that

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Speaker 1: the Islamic crazy em in place.

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Speaker 2: They are the evil ones.

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Speaker 1: The ninety million people are the good, innocent ones who

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Speaker 1: are desperate for freedom. But there are other evil parties

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Speaker 1: who are not in power, who would kill for the opportunity,

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Speaker 1: who would be circling, wouldn't they?

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Speaker 3: Well, absolutely internally within Iran, certainly the Chinese, the Russians. Well,

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Speaker 3: I was yeah, And you know, I mean you got

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Speaker 3: to always be careful of al Qaeda and ISIS and

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Speaker 3: the Sunni jihadist groups who moved to take advantage. I mean,

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Speaker 3: this is what happened in Iraq. And you know, you

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Speaker 3: saw the collapse of the Saddam regime. You saw a

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Speaker 3: program of debathivocation where we had we thought we'd learned

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Speaker 3: the right lesson from denazification after World War Two. But

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Speaker 3: there were tens of thousands of Iraqis who were bathists.

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Speaker 3: But they were bathtists because they had no choice. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you want to be a teacher in Saddam's Iraq, you

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Speaker 3: have to be a Bathists. So we we debathified, we

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Speaker 3: dismissed them all, and you know, many of the men

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Speaker 3: and some of the women joined that vicious insurgency.

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Speaker 4: So I think we've got to learn from Iraq. But

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Speaker 4: I think, as JD.

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Speaker 3: Van said, you know, you don't want to underlearn, but

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Speaker 3: you don't want to overlearn. You don't want to think

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Speaker 3: everything is Iraq, And I think there's serious work to

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Speaker 3: be done. But I'm of the view, and I think

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Speaker 3: President Trump probably is as well, that the support base

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Speaker 3: of the regime is probably twenty percent true believers and

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Speaker 3: eighty percent crooks and Charlatans, as our friend Kareem Sadgripur

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Speaker 3: has put it, And that's a flip from seventy nine

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Speaker 3: where eighty percent with true believers and twenty percent with Charlatan's.

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Speaker 3: You know, if you can flip the non true believers

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Speaker 3: and the Charlatans and they can keep their money in

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Speaker 3: their lives, then you get to a situation that President

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Speaker 3: Trump's talking about, which is to really fracture the support

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Speaker 3: base and remove the guns from those who have been

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Speaker 3: so brutal in slaughtering our audience.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned China.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk finally about out the impact on

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Speaker 1: and great point you make, by the way, about the

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Speaker 1: defense strategy I've read that in full as well, and

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Speaker 1: that was one of my takeouts. The other place that

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Speaker 1: was mentioned and identified quite rightly as the greatest threat

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Speaker 1: to American national security and America as a whole is

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Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party in Jijingping. You weaken one of

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Speaker 1: these allies, you weaken them all. Is that a fair

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Speaker 1: assessment to make? Given what China gets out of Iran?

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Speaker 1: You look at Russia as well North Korea? What does

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Speaker 1: this do to the bad guys around the world if

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Speaker 1: this regime were not to exist anymore?

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Speaker 3: So at FDD we call it the Access of Aggressors,

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Speaker 3: and as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, my colleague

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Speaker 3: Brad Bowman is about to put out a book, very

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Speaker 3: detailed study on this access and there are five six

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Speaker 3: hundred lines of partnership and cooperation between members of the ACCESS,

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Speaker 3: So first as identifying that exists, second is really understanding

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Speaker 3: how they work together from a military, political, security, intelligence,

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Speaker 3: economic point of view. And then really, I mean, Brad's

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Speaker 3: book is going to be chock full of actual recommendations

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Speaker 3: on how you can actually weaken the axis. But I

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Speaker 3: think the best way to weaken the axis is actually

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Speaker 3: remove the Islamic Republic of Iran from it, it's an

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Speaker 3: essentral element of the axis. It's essential to Chinese Communist

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Speaker 3: Party force projection and economic projection in the Middle East

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Speaker 3: and in the broader Near East, and that would be

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Speaker 3: a serious blow to the Chinese Communists if we were to.

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Speaker 4: Remove the Islamic Republic.

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Speaker 3: And I think the Islamic Republic is the weakest element

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Speaker 3: of the axis, right China multi generational, nuclear armed superpower

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Speaker 3: with a massive army, Russia nuclear weapons.

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Speaker 4: Huge energy resources.

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Speaker 3: Putin's willing to throw hundreds of thousands of Russians into

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Speaker 3: the meat grinder in North Korea already has nuclear weapons

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Speaker 3: and ICBMs. It could probably destroy Soul in a matter

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Speaker 3: of a few hours. So if you really want to

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Speaker 3: weaken that axis, you want to break the weakest member,

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Speaker 3: and so far that is the Islamic Republic.

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Speaker 4: And let's see how things ensue. But I think so far, cautiously,

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Speaker 4: very cautiously, so far so good.

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Speaker 2: You look at China.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the wounded Bull prior in the danger of that,

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Speaker 1: plenty think that Jijingping is in as weak a position

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Speaker 1: as he has been in Internally, the domestic issues with

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Speaker 1: the economy. I don't know if you called his New

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Speaker 1: Year's speech. I think I watched three different translations of it.

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Speaker 1: All were slightly different, so I'm relying upon translations. But

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Speaker 1: he seems primed to go when it comes to not

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Speaker 1: just Taiwan. There were three or four mentions of that,

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Speaker 1: but broader in terms of his global ambitions. If the

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Speaker 1: regime in Iran falls, does that then potentially rather than

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Speaker 1: doing the opposite and him going, oh gosh, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Americans might get involved and it's you know, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, or does it make him think, well, I

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Speaker 1: gotta go now?

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Speaker 4: You know?

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Speaker 2: Is that a danger as well?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's certainly, it's always a danger.

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Speaker 3: I mean, she's ing has been preparing the People's Liberation

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Speaker 3: Army for a twenty twenty five invasion of Taiwan. He's facing,

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Speaker 3: as you say, enormous challenges economic challenge, but internal challenges.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's he's been firing his generals left right

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Speaker 4: and center.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, childhood friends as well. Who would you know? It's yeah,

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Speaker 1: something's going on.

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Speaker 4: Something's going on. And I think what's going on is

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Speaker 4: that many of these men.

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Speaker 3: Don't believe that the PLA is ready for a Taiwan invasion.

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Speaker 3: But I think there's no substitute for the credibility of

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Speaker 3: American power, and it's on display right now inside the

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Speaker 3: Islamic Republic of Iran. And if you are Shijimping or

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Speaker 3: Vadimir Putin, or you know Kim or any of these dictators,

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Speaker 3: you've seen that Trump's got a pretty good track record

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Speaker 3: of enforcing red lines. And I think it was so

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Speaker 3: critical that he did after promising that help was on

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Speaker 3: its way for the Iranian people, well he delivered it

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Speaker 3: six weeks later. Help is now on its way and

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Speaker 3: we're seeing the results in real time.

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Speaker 1: It's a beautiful way to finish. Help is on its way.

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Speaker 2: Is there now?

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Speaker 1: And let's pray for all the innocent people in Iran,

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Speaker 1: for the US troops, Israeli troops, and everyone around the world,

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Speaker 1: because this will be an incredible thing if it pans

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Speaker 1: out the way we hope it does. Mark Didwitz, thank

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Speaker 1: you so very much for coming on the Erwin Mullin

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Speaker 1: Show and for the brilliant job that you all do

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Speaker 1: at the FDD.

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Speaker 2: We really appreciate it.

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Speaker 4: Thanks Erin, it's a great honor.

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Speaker 2: You are amazing my friend. Thank you so much,