WEBVTT - Timeless Wisdom: Ultimate Issues Hour - How Randomness Rules Our Lives 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:24.200 Welcome to Timeless Wisdom with Dennis Prager. Here thousands of 0:00:24.240 --> 0:00:27.720 hours of Dennis's lectures, courses in classic radio programs, and 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:38.319 to purchase Dennis Prager's Rational Bibles, go to Dennisprager dot com. 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:42.120 On today's episode of Timeless Wisdom. 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:43.840 There is one question I will tell you now that 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.320 is not answerable. That is simply a matter of faith. 0:00:48.239 --> 0:00:52.880 And I respect both positions equally as it happens, and 0:00:53.920 --> 0:00:57.800 that is God directs everything or God allows randomness to 0:00:57.840 --> 0:01:02.600 take place. I respect both positions equally, and I am 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:05.559 comfortable with both and uncomfortable with both. 0:01:06.960 --> 0:01:10.000 That's coming off on Timeless Wisdom with Dennis Prager. 0:01:10.479 --> 0:01:14.959 It starts right now, to be or not to be? 0:01:16.479 --> 0:01:19.320 That is the question God. 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:21.120 Isn't God supposed to be good? 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:22.520 This needs supposed to love us? 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:25.760 Does God want us to suffer ten years? 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:32.840 You're not finished yet? Why did you go there? Who 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:39.640 are you? Bruce? I am God? Bingo Yazi? 0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:41.360 Is that your final answer? 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:45.120 Our service has God bing ding ding ding ding ding 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:45.560 ding ding. 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:47.240 Well, it was nice to meet you. 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:47.440 God. 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:49.960 Thank you for the Grand Canyon and good luck with 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:50.680 the apocalypse. 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:59.400 You're listening to the Dennis Prager Show, and this is 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:05.440 the Ultimate Issues hour. We talk about some great issue 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:09.719 of life. The great issue of life this hour is randomness, 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:15.240 luck and everything related to that, and it is it is. 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:18.120 There is one question I will tell you now that 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:21.560 is not answer. That is simply a matter of faith. 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:27.079 And I respect both positions equally as it happens. And 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:30.600 I'm talking about, obviously in this arena, those who do 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:36.160 believe in God, and that is God directs everything or 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:40.919 God allows randomness to take place. I respect both positions equally, 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:45.600 and I am comfortable with both and uncomfortable with both. 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:50.799 So just just know that that's one issue. It's an 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:54.360 issue that we may discuss later on in the hour, 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:58.880 But right now, I have a professor at cal Tech, California. 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:03.320 What is the actual California Instute of Technology. You see, 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:05.400 it's so funny you say cal Tech so much and 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:09.919 you forget it. It actually stands. It's probably that an MIT. 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:16.760 They are the most distinguished technology or technological universities in 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:19.360 the United States, if not the world. One on the 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:22.119 East coast, one on the West coast. He's a professor 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:27.400 who has his PhD in physics from Berkeley. Leonard Laudenell 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:35.240 and he is he teaches randomness. He teaches about randomness 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:38.440 to future scientists at cal Tech. This book was on 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:41.160 the New York Times bestseller list and is now number 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:45.520 four on the Business best Sellers. Which is interesting that 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.720 it would be a business bestseller. I think doctor Mlauddenew 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:52.360 I must say we have him in studio and the 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:56.680 book is titled The Drunkards Walk, How Randomness Rules our 0:03:56.800 --> 0:04:00.800 lives and Dr Laddinew pleasure to have you on. 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:02.480 The Dennis Prager Show. Great to be here. 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:07.200 Now let me first deal with some definitions and then 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:11.640 we'll talk about the philosophy of all this, because we 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:14.400 use these terms all the time. And then when I 0:04:14.480 --> 0:04:16.960 was looking through your book, I realized, by golly, I 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:20.040 really don't know exactly what or I thought I knew 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:26.000 exactly what I meant. If I'm told Dennis daily exercise 0:04:26.039 --> 0:04:30.600 will reduce the risk of a cardio incident by twenty 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:31.760 six percent. 0:04:32.159 --> 0:04:32.680 Right right? 0:04:32.919 --> 0:04:33.680 What does that mean? 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:37.360 Well, that means that if you look at a large 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:39.840 number of people who are in your situation, and you 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:42.359 look at two groups, one of them who do the 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:46.080 exercise and one of them who don't. Then the people 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:48.560 who do the exercise have been found to have that 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:50.880 much many fewer heart attacks. 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:55.800 Okay, so fine, then, so compared to those who don't 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.240 do it. Okay, that's what I thought it meant. But 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:02.480 looking through your book, you said, sometimes it's not quite 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:05.440 as clear as we think it is, these statements of 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:08.160 percentage less likely or more likely. 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:11.719 Well, that's true. You have to look at the studies. 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:14.120 If it's a medical study, one would hope that they 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:16.200 did a good study and that there were enough people 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:19.200 in the study, because when you say twenty six percent us, 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:21.560 it means that you sample to a certain numbers. 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:23.479 Okay, you're right, you're right. Then I'll tell you where 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:25.599 you raised it that I'd love you to deal with. Okay, 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:31.120 what are the odds against my taking two dice? And 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:34.920 because you deal with this and rolling a snake eyes 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:37.800 twice in a row, that is a two ones. 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.840 Well, the odds of rolling one one is one and 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:43.880 six and the odds of rolling another one is also 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:45.599 one in six. So the odds of rolling two in 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:47.440 a row are one in thirty six. And the way 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:49.640 you could look at that is there are thirty six 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:53.920 possible combinations when you roll to die two dice, and 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:57.040 they're all equally probable, given that the dice are fair. 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:58.320 If the dice are fair, and. 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:00.120 If you want to talk philosophically, that could be an 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:02.440 assumption that we might want to question. But if you 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:04.560 assume that the dice are fair, there are thirty six 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:08.480 different possibilities, each equally probable, and one only one of 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:09.480 them is two ones. 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:13.960 Right. Okay, fine, but you point out, I believe it's 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:16.560 probably not going to happen if I roll thirty six. 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:20.840 Times, right, Well, that's the deeper question. Well, there's two 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:23.080 questions there. Okay, If you if you roll it a 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:27.440 small number of times, the chances are that that that 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.360 the results that you achieve are not going to reflect 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:34.480 the actual underlying probabilities. And that is a big issue. 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.440 That a big issue in interpreting life and the world 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:42.600 around us, not just in throwing dice. Take a simpler example, 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:46.960 for instance, suppose that you have a sixty percent chance 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.799 of success in some venture, that a company has sixty 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:51.920 percent chance of success, or you have a sixty percent 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:52.640 chance of success. 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.160 However you define that and. 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:58.560 Suppose that you take five shots at it, you would 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:02.599 think if your results were to reflect the underlying probabilities 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:05.839 precisely that you would get three out of five successes, 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:10.160 because that that's sixty percent of five. But in reality, 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:11.760 when you do the math, you find out that the 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:14.080 chances are only one out of three that you'll have 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:14.960 that you'll have. 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.040 Sixty percent or three out of five successes. 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:20.200 If your underlying probability is sixty per the chances are 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.080 two thirds that your results in five tries will not 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:25.560 reflect that. And there's a one in ten chance, in fact, 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:28.440 that one inten chance that you have five success or 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:29.440 five failures in a row. 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.880 So why would we even say it's a sixty percent chance. 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.760 Well, it's meaningful if you have a larger number of 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:39.920 success of ries like the dice. Like the dice you 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:41.960 have to have. See, there's something in mathematics called the 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:44.000 law of large numbers, which says that if you do 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:47.160 it enough, and the chances are very great that your 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:50.800 results will reflect the underlying probabilities. One mistake that people 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:53.360 make is what psychologists call the law of small numbers, 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:55.200 which is not a law at all, So it's kind 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:57.480 of a bad term, but it's a harcastic term, and 0:07:57.480 --> 0:07:58.840 what it means is they apply the law of. 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:01.080 Large numbers to small numbers, and they can't be you 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:01.400 can't be. 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:03.200 So if you look at the Fortune five hundred, if 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:06.360 every company was equal, and every company had a sixty 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.680 percent chance of success in a given year, and you 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:11.360 look at the track records over five years, you would 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:15.560 find fifty companies with either five straight good or bad years, 0:08:15.960 --> 0:08:18.680 even though everyone had identical sixty percent chance of success. 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:21.480 Will need to understand that in that real we don't 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.640 often have samples of hundreds where we can write exactly that. 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:27.960 And let me explain this in layman's terms, and tell 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:29.760 me if I'm right, And that is those of you 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:32.840 who have played blackjack at a casino, say in Vegas, 0:08:33.839 --> 0:08:37.520 and there there are rules in blackjack that are based 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:41.040 on numbers. In other words, if the if the the 0:08:41.079 --> 0:08:44.160 dealer is showing a ten or a picture card, same thing, 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:50.360 and you have a five, you should you should think 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:53.160 what are you supposed to get hit? Exactly, But if 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:57.959 they're showing a five or a runder and you're showing something, 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:00.600 you shouldn't take a hit away. But still people will 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:03.360 draw on a fifteen when they shouldn't, and they'll get 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:06.319 a six, and they're they're terrific twenty one because it 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:09.800 interesting well, and the reason is because it's small numbers, 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:13.760 which then the casino tries to undo by having six decks. 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:17.840 Right, yeah, they try, so you can't count, So you 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:20.600 can't count, So you can't count because the odds change 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:22.440 as cars are revealed. 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:27.360 Exactly. So at what point when we say, you said, 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:30.840 back to the dice, it's a one in thirty six 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:34.920 chance that I will do two ones in a row? Correct? 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:41.000 Is that what you said? Okay? Now, at what point 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:46.040 is that iron clad in the billions? How many roles 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:49.760 will make that an iron clad fact? Or is there 0:09:49.840 --> 0:09:50.719 never such a thing? 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.160 Oh, there's never such Well what do you mean by 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:55.240 iron clad facts? In other words, that you will throw 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:57.720 that that that that you have exactly went out of six? 0:09:57.840 --> 0:09:58.920 Yes, so that's correct. 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:01.800 Never an iron clad fact, never, no matter how big 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:02.200 the number. 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:06.480 That's right. So what it becomes the chance? The chance. 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:08.920 Here's the way the law works. 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:11.720 If you tell me how if you say that that 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:14.679 the probability is one in thirty six, yeah, then the 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.440 law works this way. You tell me what your error 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:18.640 allowed air is away. 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:21.120 From one in thirty six? Is it one in thirty six? 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:24.240 Point one or one in thirty six point oh one 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:26.679 or okay plus or minus point oh one? 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:27.760 Okay, what is that? 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:30.319 Then I can and then I can tell you, and 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:32.120 you have to also tell me how certain you want 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:33.520 to be that you're going to get within that era 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:33.880 of one. 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:37.240 Right, I'll even make it broader thirty five, thirty six 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:38.079 or thirty seven. 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:40.079 Yeah, well, I would have to do a calculation, which 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:41.880 I think Boorre your your listener, It. 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:44.719 Would, it would. But but is there if you think 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:45.360 about the. 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.040 Coin tosses, for instance, it's you need hundreds or a thousand, 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:50.480 depending on how much margin of error you want and 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:52.720 how probable you want to be of getting within that 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:55.280 margin of error. So in the in the in the 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:57.319 in the in the coin toss example, I gave you 0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:00.360 with sixty percent, depending on whether you want to have, 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.880 let's say, ninety five percent certainty that you're within three 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:06.040 percent of sixty percent, or do you want ninety nine 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:07.839 percent certainty that you're within one percent of. 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:09.360 You know the way these things. 0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:12.440 But in general, in that example, you would probably want 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:14.560 hundreds at least exactly. 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:14.880 Okay. 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.520 So, and in life we don't normally give for somebody 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:19.000 else one hundred years right. 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:21.080 What about game? 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:23.480 I'm doing a coin toss with you. I just got 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:27.200 three tails in a row. Is there anything in the 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:30.400 universe that would make it less likely that the fourth 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.319 one is a tail? Answer? 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:35.000 Let me come back. 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:37.319 We got to take a break, and then I want 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:39.400 to ask the big stuff. How does this play out 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:44.080 in our lives? Drunk drivers, cancer, et cetera. The book 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:47.959 is The Drunkard's Walk. Professor Leonard Bladenow. This is the 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.240 Ultimate Issues Hour on the Dennis Prager Show. 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:54.240 This episode of Timeless Wisdom will continue right after this. 0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:03.800 Now back to more of Dennis Prager's Timeless Wisdom. 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:06.800 Prager. It is the Ultimate Issues Hour. The subject is 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:12.000 the randomness of life, probability, randomness, luck. But first we're 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:15.199 establishing our parameters about what it even means. What does 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:18.120 it mean that there's a fifty percent chance? What do 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.400 we even understand that sort of stuff? And there's a 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:25.080 best selling book out on that called The Drunkard's Walk, 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:30.720 How Randomness Rules Our Lives? Leonard Mladenow or Maladenow mL 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:36.160 od that's the Malod I now in l He is 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:41.079 a He teaches at cal Tech California Institute of technology 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:45.480 and has a PhD in physics. Okay, doctor Maladden, Now 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:49.160 let's do a real life a situation. Then go to 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:51.800 the great some of the great philosophic questions, because you 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:55.640 have some stories there from your parents' lives which are riveting. 0:12:56.320 --> 0:13:00.680 But let's talk about sports for a moment. In a 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:04.080 world series, the winner is the team that wins four 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:08.800 games first, four out of seven. It's called obviously. It 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:16.120 is said though, among baseball, basketball, hockey, football connoisseurs, that 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.640 the winner is not necessarily the best team because pretty 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.719 much any team can beat any pro team can beat 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:25.640 any other pro team on any given day. That's what 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:32.199 they always say. So does do your statistics of randomness 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:37.800 and probability support that statement that in a four out 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:42.560 of seven series the best team doesn't have all that 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.520 much more likelihood? You have to play a lot more 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:47.959 than seven games for it to play out. 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:48.880 Yes. 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.959 Well, first we have to recognize that in sports is 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:55.320 a good orient to test these ideas because it's controlled, 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.760 there are set rules, and the statistics are publicly available. 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:02.360 But in sports there are many random factors depending on 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:04.640 the sport. But if there weren't random factors, and any 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:07.400 time one team teamMy play team B. You'd have the 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:09.720 same result. Teammate would win every time, but they don't 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:12.559 because there are random factors, which can be anything from 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.240 someone not feeling well to the wind blowing the wrong 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:19.160 way or different things. But you let's say that we 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:21.640 took a team, and let's take baseball, and that team 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:24.400 A had A was better than team B. Let's say 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.600 their their theoretical advantage was fifty five percent to forty 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.840 five so if they played a zillion games, they would 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:32.640 tend to win fifty five percent of them. Now they 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:36.440 play a seven game series and best of seven wins, Well, 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:38.200 if you do the calculation, then you'll find that the 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.080 chances are about forty percent that the lesser team in 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:43.680 that case will win the seventh best of seven series. 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:46.000 So even in seven games, game. 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:46.920 Is almost a toss up. 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:50.800 And oh wait, oh, you consider forty percent toss up. 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.760 Well, it's forty versus sixty, so the superior team will 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:57.760 win more often. But certainly I wouldn't bet my life 0:14:57.800 --> 0:14:59.520 on even car of. 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:02.720 Course, but wait, if they played one thousand games. 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:04.520 Well, so here's the question is and that we were 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:06.080 talking before about when you can use a law of 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:08.479 large numbers. Let's say you wanted to lower the percentage 0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:12.120 in this case of the lower of the lesser team 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:15.560 winning with the four or seven series winning the best 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:17.800 of something series, how many games do you have to play? 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:22.360 If you're willing to accept a twenty five percent chance 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:24.480 of the lesser team winning, then you have to play 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.920 the best of forty game series. Oh and if you 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.400 want to have what they call statistical significance, there's only 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:33.080 a five percent chance the lesser team will win. In 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:34.720 this case, you'd have to play a two hundred and 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:35.600 sixty nine games. 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:40.680 It does support the theory that seven games is an 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:42.480 advantage for the worst team. 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:45.200 Seven games gives them a shot, right, yes, it might 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:47.680 allow better shot. As in most of life, as I 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.479 keep saying, you don't really play, you have enough opportunities 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:54.040 to really see what's going on. You know, it's almost 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.560 two baseball seasons or one and a half or several 0:15:56.560 --> 0:16:00.840 basketball seasons to really see what's going on. Of course, 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:02.800 different games are different backs you might want to factor 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:04.560 in home court advantagees were cimplified. 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:12.760 Wait, I want to remember that. That is fascinating A Okay, 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:14.800 I get it, I really do get it. Two hundred 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:17.560 and sixty nine games would have to be played in 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:22.120 order to ensure that you got what should be the 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.280 chances of the worst team winning. 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:27.400 Well, if one team is better than the other by 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:30.440 fifty five to forty five, I get you where there 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:31.680 usually are pretty close. 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:31.880 That's right. 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:33.560 But if you want to minimize, if you want to 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.800 have the chances being only one out of twenty or 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:37.640 five percent that the lesser team will win, you have 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:38.080 to play two. 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.600 I understand the sixty nine right right, I understand now. 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:44.960 To make it clear to folks out there, if the 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.400 team is much better than another team, let's say the 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:49.840 first place team and the last place team played a 0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:53.120 World Series, you wouldn't need two hundred less. 0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:54.320 That's it. You have to do. 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:58.040 The calcultation ends on what the so that's so. So 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:00.600 there are a lot of a lot of factors, all right. Now, 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:06.080 Obviously we try to apply this to our lives. Where 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:12.600 where does this apply? In other words, if somebody, unfortunately, 0:17:12.639 --> 0:17:14.720 and it makes me very angry to even say this, 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:16.960 will be hit by a drunk driver today on some 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:25.720 highway in America, that you view that as utterly random from. 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:27.400 The point of view of the person who was hit. Yes, 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:29.800 it is, I would viewed as a random event in 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:32.840 the sense that it's unpredictable, and all you can say 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:35.200 when you leave the house is what your probabilities are 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:39.080 of getting hit. There's no deterministic factor unless you're the 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:39.639 one drinking. 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:46.879 Yes, exactly, exactly now, The only the only balance in 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:50.720 view would be that there was a divine will that 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:52.760 you be hit that day, right, I mean there was, 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:56.560 There is no other There's no third possibility. There's divine 0:17:56.600 --> 0:18:00.200 will that you be hit there, or there is randomness 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:02.479 now and now the problem is that a lot of 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:06.959 religious people feel that God and randomness can coexist. I 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.320 don't happen to agree with that, but I, as I 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:11.720 said earlier, I respect that view, but I don't happen 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:13.439 to agree with that. I think that God made a 0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:15.520 world where you can be hit by a drunk driver, 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:19.240 and God didn't will it now? And I know you're 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.080 not theologically that's not your area. But but is that 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:24.240 a fair statement? There is no other possibility? 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:24.439 Right? 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:26.760 Either was what the other possibility would be that you 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:30.560 that you have some control over the situation or the 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:32.920 other the drunk which I don't feel that you do yeah. 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:35.479 A lot of people like to believe that positive thinking 0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:38.560 will make sure that no, exactly. 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:41.240 And it's an interesting illustration because what it shows is 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:44.520 that very small see, our lives are guided not just 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:48.119 by our abilities and our efforts, but also by random 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.480 factors that happen. And it's those factors and our reactions 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.680 to them that govern a lot of our lives. And 0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:57.160 in this case, this is an example where a very 0:18:57.160 --> 0:18:59.520 small random factor like having an extra cup of coffee 0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:01.680 could save your life and you'd never know it, because 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:03.040 you will not know that you would have been hit 0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:05.720 had you left a minute earlier. Yes, of course, and 0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:07.480 sometimes something happens. 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:09.960 But you yeah, or you could have the same cup 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:11.320 of coffee and it causes. 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:12.000 You cause me to be hit. 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:14.440 Yeah, And and and when you look back at your lives, 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:19.240 there are many areas where you can identify relatively well 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:22.199 completely unrelated events that changed your life completely. I mean, 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.240 in my life that's happened. But in the book, I 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:27.040 tend to focus more on people that are more interesting 0:19:27.080 --> 0:19:30.760 than I. And for instance, Bruce Willis is one example 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:34.199 I give. And he was a struggling actor, not a 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.119 complete unknown, so people had looked at him just no 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.000 one picked him out and said you're the man. 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:40.680 He was in New York tending. 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:43.880 Bar on and off, being an off Broadway plays and whatnot. 0:19:44.280 --> 0:19:47.679 And then one one summer he decided to, depending on 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:51.480 which story you believe, to visit his girlfriend in Los Angeles, 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:54.600 or if you believe another version, to go see the 0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:57.280 eighty four Olympics. And he came out to Los Angeles 0:19:57.720 --> 0:19:59.760 and an agent recommended that he go and try out 0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:02.240 for this TV show that they were casting. And the 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:05.479 TV show already had a favorite. But he showed up 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:08.679 there and of the three decision makers, two out of 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:10.400 three didn't like him, and the other one did. 0:20:10.680 --> 0:20:12.600 All right, you'll tell us the rest when we come back. 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:14.719 We'll take your calls. We got a full board already. 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:16.680 One eight Prager seven seven six. 0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:26.000 This episode of Timeless Wisdom continue right after this. Now 0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:29.879 back to more of Dennis Prager's Timeless Wisdom. 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:33.840 The subject of this Ultimate Issues hour is randomness. How 0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:36.920 randomness rules our lives? Is the book which is titled 0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:41.720 The Drunkard's Walk by Leonard Mladenow, and it's up at 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:47.160 Praguer Radio dot com. At the blog he teaches exactly 0:20:47.200 --> 0:20:53.200 this subject. Doctor Vladenell at Caltech, and you were telling 0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:56.720 the story about Bruce Willis, who coincidentally turned out to 0:20:56.800 --> 0:20:58.920 come out to Los Angeles. 0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:01.119 Where he had no. 0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:06.720 Career at the time in acting, and somebody suggested the audition. 0:21:07.359 --> 0:21:10.320