1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Welcome to today's podcast, sponsored by Hillsdale College. All thanks

2
00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,440
Speaker 1: hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to take

3
00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:08,920
Speaker 1: advantage of the many free online courses there, and of

4
00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:11,280
Speaker 1: course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them

5
00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,560
Speaker 1: at Q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple,

6
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:20,080
Speaker 1: iTunes and Hillsdale Morning, Lauren, Even Grace America. I'm Hugh Hewittt.

7
00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:22,240
Speaker 1: Welcome to the program. I hope you enjoyed the Super

8
00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,079
Speaker 1: Bowl yesterday. But we are on the cusp of big events.

9
00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,840
Speaker 1: Whether it's this week or this month or next month,

10
00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,760
Speaker 1: it's a very important time and I'm honored to have

11
00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,160
Speaker 1: with me. Prince raise Up Paula VI. He's the Crown

12
00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:36,480
Speaker 1: Prince of Iran. He is also the voice and face

13
00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:40,360
Speaker 1: of the Iranian opposition in exile. Prince Paulavi, welcome, Thank

14
00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,479
Speaker 1: you for joining me. I want to start with a

15
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,040
Speaker 1: very direct question to your understanding. How many of your

16
00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,519
Speaker 1: fellow countrymen were murdered by the regime on January eight

17
00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:51,880
Speaker 1: to nine. I've heard a lot of different numbers.

18
00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,480
Speaker 2: First of all, thank you for having me on your program.

19
00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:01,800
Speaker 2: The number vary between thirty six and a half thousand

20
00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,680
Speaker 2: to about forty thousand. That's the last estimate that we've had.

21
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,039
Speaker 2: It could be higher than that because they're still ongoing

22
00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:12,880
Speaker 2: arrest happening. They are killing people in hospitals, they are

23
00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:16,759
Speaker 2: finishing them off on their wounded beds. They are arresting

24
00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:21,040
Speaker 2: doctors or anybody rendering assistant to the victims. Who knows

25
00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,759
Speaker 2: how much the total numbers will be, but the most

26
00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,640
Speaker 2: conservative figure so far has been over thirty six thousand people.

27
00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:31,880
Speaker 1: Unfortunately, I'm going to start using that number. Prince, thank you.

28
00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,440
Speaker 1: What do you hope to say, President Trump, order our

29
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,120
Speaker 1: military in the America to do right now?

30
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,600
Speaker 2: Look, when you are fighting an occupying force that has

31
00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,240
Speaker 2: taken a whole country hostage, and people are on the

32
00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:51,160
Speaker 2: streets unarmed as civilians demanding liberation from this tyranny and

33
00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,960
Speaker 2: hoping for freedom, and at the time that they're being

34
00:01:55,000 --> 00:02:01,880
Speaker 2: shot on the streets by military machine guns and war instruments.

35
00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,360
Speaker 2: This is no longer a fair fight. This is a

36
00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,600
Speaker 2: genocide in the making. And the only thing that will

37
00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,600
Speaker 2: equalize the playing field for these brave Iranians who are

38
00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,799
Speaker 2: fighting for their own liberation is to have an assistance

39
00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:19,400
Speaker 2: that is needed help at this time to neutralize elements

40
00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:22,440
Speaker 2: that the regime has used against its own citizenry to

41
00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,720
Speaker 2: brutalize them the way they have, and this means targeting

42
00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,839
Speaker 2: the regime's top apparatus of repression, which is of course

43
00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,240
Speaker 2: the IRGC and many other elements that are associated with

44
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,919
Speaker 2: that repression, and only a military intervention at this point

45
00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,000
Speaker 2: could level the playing field. This is the reason why

46
00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:42,840
Speaker 2: the Running people have been anxiously awaiting the action that

47
00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:47,000
Speaker 2: the President has promised he will do in support of

48
00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,040
Speaker 2: the Running people, that help will arrive us hang in there,

49
00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,519
Speaker 2: and they have, and they hope that this president will

50
00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,200
Speaker 2: stay true to his world as he has always demonstrated,

51
00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,680
Speaker 2: and that he's no Barack Obama and he believes in

52
00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:02,280
Speaker 2: what he says and is a man of peace, and

53
00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,080
Speaker 2: ultimately will help the Running people get ridw of this

54
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:10,240
Speaker 2: regime who has been devastating not only to Iran and Iranians,

55
00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,200
Speaker 2: but has been a source of chaos and instability since

56
00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:18,160
Speaker 2: its exception, and most dramatically, the most hostile regime against

57
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:24,600
Speaker 2: America as opposed to a country that was always with America.

58
00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,799
Speaker 2: Is certainly not at all on the same wavelength as

59
00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,959
Speaker 2: this regime Prince.

60
00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,040
Speaker 1: I saw over the weekend the regime ran an AI

61
00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,600
Speaker 1: video demonstrating how they were going to destroy the Lincoln

62
00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,120
Speaker 1: and other associated ships in the and the Abraham Lincoln

63
00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:45,360
Speaker 1: carrier strike force. What risk do you think the United

64
00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,160
Speaker 1: States runs to its forces and its allies in the

65
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,200
Speaker 1: regions if it does strike in that way against the regime.

66
00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,920
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, we saw how the Iranian attempted

67
00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:00,240
Speaker 2: to respond to the Israeli attacked by targeting israel help

68
00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,760
Speaker 2: with missiles and drones, and I don't think that was

69
00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,800
Speaker 2: quite a successful campaign if you look at the actual

70
00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,200
Speaker 2: result of that. If this is the might of the

71
00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,040
Speaker 2: running forces, and if they are hit before they have

72
00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 2: a chance to strike, and very much doubt that unless

73
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:19,120
Speaker 2: the AI projected messages, they actually have a capacity to

74
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,200
Speaker 2: do that. And if so, there's no other military in

75
00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:24,080
Speaker 2: this world that can neutralize that than the American military

76
00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:26,400
Speaker 2: with the help of some of its allies. So I

77
00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:30,520
Speaker 2: think that's just basically saber rattling as a desperate regime

78
00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,240
Speaker 2: that is on his last leg and once again wants

79
00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,000
Speaker 2: to create doubt as to whether or not they need

80
00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,440
Speaker 2: to be intervened against what's in the balance right now

81
00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:41,840
Speaker 2: is not just, as I said, the liberty for the

82
00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,120
Speaker 2: running people, but it's to put a complete end to

83
00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,600
Speaker 2: a regime that has only raised havoc in the region.

84
00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,520
Speaker 2: And the best way to do that is to make

85
00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,159
Speaker 2: sure that this time you don't just wound the beast,

86
00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,760
Speaker 2: but go for the full kill. By that, I mean

87
00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:58,839
Speaker 2: you cannot leave it with the possibility of retaliation. Clearly,

88
00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:03,000
Speaker 2: this deployment is not the simple target practice. It clearly

89
00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,360
Speaker 2: is much more in depth and much more compressive than

90
00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:10,599
Speaker 2: everything I've seen before outside of a full World war

91
00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,160
Speaker 2: level type of deployment. This is serious.

92
00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,120
Speaker 1: I agree with that. What do you say, Prince to

93
00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:20,359
Speaker 1: the so called restrainers that really neo isolation is in

94
00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,200
Speaker 1: the United States? They said there's no upside for America

95
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,839
Speaker 1: in fraeing the Iranian people and going to war with Iran.

96
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,800
Speaker 2: Well, look, if America had not gone to war in

97
00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,520
Speaker 2: the Second World War, what would have been the outcome

98
00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,039
Speaker 2: of the Nazis victory or Hitler getting his hand on

99
00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,400
Speaker 2: the atom bomb. Who knows what his story would be

100
00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:45,000
Speaker 2: looking like. Right now, and again, Americans have to realize

101
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,600
Speaker 2: that this is a regime that has been the root

102
00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,920
Speaker 2: cause of instability in the region has been the biggest

103
00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:56,919
Speaker 2: enemy of American and its allies versus a nation that

104
00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,120
Speaker 2: has proven time again that it doesn't have any hostility

105
00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,640
Speaker 2: versus its neighbors, most of them are allies of the

106
00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:08,640
Speaker 2: United States, unlike this regime who calls for the disappearance

107
00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,159
Speaker 2: of an entire nation from the face of the earth.

108
00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,160
Speaker 2: I mean by that Israel, of course, that the Iranians

109
00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,440
Speaker 2: have not only a friendly attitude towards our neighbors, but

110
00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:21,320
Speaker 2: particularly with Israel, because I think the two nations on

111
00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,599
Speaker 2: disbanded that can claim that they have a biblical relationship

112
00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:26,839
Speaker 2: happen to be the people of Iran and the people

113
00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:28,640
Speaker 2: of Israel. And that goes back to the time of

114
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,520
Speaker 2: Cyrus the Great twenty five centuries ago, before America even

115
00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,400
Speaker 2: existed as a country. But what does it mean to America.

116
00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,839
Speaker 2: What it means to America is not only not having

117
00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 2: to yet again have to police the whole region, but

118
00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,679
Speaker 2: to rely on partners that are on the same boat

119
00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,359
Speaker 2: with you, that share the same values of freedom and

120
00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,159
Speaker 2: democracy and human rights, that want to be partner in

121
00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 2: that future, and they will bring that element of stability

122
00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,839
Speaker 2: so you no longer have to have your troops deployed

123
00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,839
Speaker 2: in far away lands, or have American taxpayers fund the

124
00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,640
Speaker 2: bill of having to sustain long term campaigns. That's what's

125
00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,599
Speaker 2: in the balance for America. A country that will be

126
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,720
Speaker 2: on your side as the best partners. It's good for

127
00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,720
Speaker 2: regional peace, is good for world peace, and it's good

128
00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,680
Speaker 2: for business and economic opportunities. Iran is a country that

129
00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,880
Speaker 2: would represent in the first fifteen years at least a

130
00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:24,760
Speaker 2: trillion dollars worth of revenue to the US economy by

131
00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,760
Speaker 2: means of American investment in Iran. There are one hundreds

132
00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:30,880
Speaker 2: of I agree with all that. I'm willing to invest

133
00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,360
Speaker 2: in that, and that's at the end of the day,

134
00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,200
Speaker 2: that's what the net benefit to America with a regime

135
00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:39,920
Speaker 2: changing around, as opposed to the continuation of this regime

136
00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,800
Speaker 2: that already deprives you from that market but has been

137
00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:44,600
Speaker 2: a constant threat to America directly.

138
00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,680
Speaker 1: I agree with all that. Prince, you are the most

139
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,680
Speaker 1: prominent and voice and face for the Iranian opposition. In fact,

140
00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,800
Speaker 1: you may be the only one of which I am aware,

141
00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,560
Speaker 1: and I'm pretty aware of the news. Right before I

142
00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,480
Speaker 1: talk to you, I talked to Professor Dan schiftan from

143
00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:04,080
Speaker 1: hyper University has been basically the kissinger of Israel for

144
00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,080
Speaker 1: forty years. And I said, I'm going to talk to

145
00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:07,760
Speaker 1: the Prince. What would you ask him? And the same

146
00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 1: thing I'm going to ask you? Who else would help

147
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:14,040
Speaker 1: you lead a transition? Are there other people in the

148
00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,680
Speaker 1: position to step up in the aftermath of regime collapse

149
00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,960
Speaker 1: in Iran to lead the country back to what it

150
00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:25,040
Speaker 1: was prior to nineteen to a gone of freedom again.

151
00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,559
Speaker 2: All the Iranian democratic secular forces that believe in these

152
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:36,320
Speaker 2: four core principles have a place under this tent. The

153
00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,840
Speaker 2: four core principles that is the basis of our coalition

154
00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:45,200
Speaker 2: is number one, Iran's territorial integrity. Number two is a

155
00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:49,000
Speaker 2: clear separation of religion from government as a prerequisite to democracy,

156
00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:54,080
Speaker 2: the importance of individual liberties and equality of all citizens

157
00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,800
Speaker 2: under the law. And finally, the right for the running

158
00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,760
Speaker 2: people to determine their own future by means of free

159
00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,400
Speaker 2: election and the ballot box, which is a process that

160
00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:07,160
Speaker 2: the interim transitional government will have to play. They have

161
00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 2: called for me to lead this movement, as witnessed within

162
00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,400
Speaker 2: Iran and across the world. I'm humbled by that trust

163
00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:15,120
Speaker 2: and confidence.

164
00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:16,439
Speaker 3: They have in me, and.

165
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,040
Speaker 2: I've always intended to play this role, except that today

166
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,240
Speaker 2: there's no question that they have chosen me to lead

167
00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,080
Speaker 2: this movement, and that's why I have stepped in. But

168
00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,280
Speaker 2: I'm not doing this alone. I'm doing it with the

169
00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:31,000
Speaker 2: broadest possible coalition of democratically minded Iranians who may vote

170
00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,760
Speaker 2: differently at the very end for the final outcome, but

171
00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,040
Speaker 2: they believe that this is the only process that will

172
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,760
Speaker 2: take us to where we need to be. And in

173
00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:42,240
Speaker 2: that we have the broadest coalition ever I running democratic

174
00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:45,440
Speaker 2: forces within Iran and of course within the International Committee

175
00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,320
Speaker 2: and Iranian experts.

176
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,600
Speaker 1: Do you think, in the way that the Air Force

177
00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,280
Speaker 1: General has met with har Maine forty seven years ago,

178
00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:55,800
Speaker 1: do you think there are members of the regular Iranian

179
00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,880
Speaker 1: armed forces who would help you establish and your allies

180
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,679
Speaker 1: establish a monopoly of force in Iran so that there

181
00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:03,640
Speaker 1: was in a civil war.

182
00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:09,080
Speaker 2: Well, look, when I started this campaign about a year ago,

183
00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:13,600
Speaker 2: and we started a special process whereby people who want

184
00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,280
Speaker 2: to defect from the regime have a secure means to

185
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,720
Speaker 2: communicate their intentions to us. We started this about six

186
00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,920
Speaker 2: months ago. To this day, we had over one hundred

187
00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,920
Speaker 2: and sixty thousand people who have applied. Many of them

188
00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,880
Speaker 2: are members of the security forces, the military forces, the

189
00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:32,120
Speaker 2: civil bureaucracy that have reached out to us that they're

190
00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,160
Speaker 2: willing to play a role and making sure that we

191
00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,360
Speaker 2: can all share in that transition. In other words, they

192
00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,120
Speaker 2: want to be part of the solution. And I like

193
00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,080
Speaker 2: to take this opportunity to stress that unlike scenario that

194
00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:48,080
Speaker 2: wasn't quite well handled in terms of regime change example

195
00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:52,480
Speaker 2: Iraq and debatification, our position is very clear. For all

196
00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:56,520
Speaker 2: those people who are not directly responsible for the massacre

197
00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:58,360
Speaker 2: of their own cities and re or have the blood

198
00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,080
Speaker 2: of the people on their hand, they can survive regime

199
00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,720
Speaker 2: change and have a place in the future. The people

200
00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,120
Speaker 2: who will have rendered justice for their crimes will be

201
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:08,720
Speaker 2: judged like we had at the end of the Second

202
00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,520
Speaker 2: World War and the Nurember Trials for instance, but many

203
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:15,640
Speaker 2: of them have not been directly associated with that violence

204
00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:19,200
Speaker 2: or criminally involved, and they can have a place in

205
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,560
Speaker 2: the future. When you're part of the solution, you are

206
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:25,960
Speaker 2: an element that will in fact reduce the risks of

207
00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,880
Speaker 2: instability or chaos to the country. It will help facilitate

208
00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 2: a more smooth transition so there's a sense of national

209
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,880
Speaker 2: reconciliation and amnesty at play as well. But those who

210
00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,400
Speaker 2: will have to face justice will face justice. There's no

211
00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,960
Speaker 2: question about that. The running people need to have their

212
00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:45,679
Speaker 2: day in court against the discriminal people. But at the

213
00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,000
Speaker 2: same time, they understand that we need to make sure

214
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:51,040
Speaker 2: that we can have a successful transition, and every running

215
00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:55,120
Speaker 2: that I know that believing in that freedom, know the

216
00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:59,760
Speaker 2: responsibility that we all bear together to push that agenda forward.

217
00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:04,280
Speaker 2: Minimize all the risks, minimize the casualties, maximize success by

218
00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,160
Speaker 2: getting the most stable possible transition.

219
00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,719
Speaker 1: Well, let me focus in on that, Prince, because I've

220
00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,960
Speaker 1: been thinking since the massacre, how in the world would

221
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,440
Speaker 1: you ever prevent around the reprisals After France was liberated,

222
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:21,120
Speaker 1: the resistance did quite a lot of blowback at those

223
00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:25,080
Speaker 1: who cooperated with the Nazis. After you've murdered thirty five

224
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,240
Speaker 1: thousand people, how in the world would you keep the

225
00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:34,199
Speaker 1: families of the victims from seeking rough justice or vigilante justice.

226
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,320
Speaker 2: Again? You know, but when people have faith in the

227
00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,600
Speaker 2: fact that justice will be served, when people have faith

228
00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:46,200
Speaker 2: that this time the institutions that we are creating or

229
00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,760
Speaker 2: these time have faith in the leaders in their government

230
00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,320
Speaker 2: or institutions. That changes the dynamics of whether or not

231
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,880
Speaker 2: you believe in your system or you don't believe in

232
00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,640
Speaker 2: your system. I think vigilantism usually occurs when there's total

233
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,920
Speaker 2: lack of trust and an abandonment of any hope for

234
00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:06,800
Speaker 2: civility or, if you will, a more moderate approach as

235
00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:10,720
Speaker 2: opposed to extreme measures. All of that is at play.

236
00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,480
Speaker 2: I don't know on the psychological level how one handles that.

237
00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:15,080
Speaker 2: I think a lot of it has to do with

238
00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,360
Speaker 2: hope for a better future and the fact that we

239
00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:21,040
Speaker 2: already paid too much of a price to continue building

240
00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:25,080
Speaker 2: our nation on bloodshed and retaliation and vedication. I think

241
00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:30,160
Speaker 2: that sense of a national relief in terms of everybody

242
00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,640
Speaker 2: is now in an opportunity to mend the woods and

243
00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:37,079
Speaker 2: heal together is more important than seeking revenge, because an

244
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,439
Speaker 2: eye for an eye only makes the world go blind.

245
00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:43,920
Speaker 1: Eventually, forty seven years ago, Prince I watched the Revolution

246
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,600
Speaker 1: on a couch in the old Western White House with

247
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,640
Speaker 1: Richard Nixon and Ray Price every night, and former President

248
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:51,360
Speaker 1: Nick I was a writer on his staff just out

249
00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,680
Speaker 1: of college. He could not believe that Iran was falling

250
00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:56,720
Speaker 1: because it was so pro American, and he was, of

251
00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,240
Speaker 1: course a great friend of your father's. After forty seven

252
00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,839
Speaker 1: years of NonStop anti US, great Satan, anti Israel Little

253
00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:09,440
Speaker 1: Satan rhetoric and propaganda, and after the devastation of the

254
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:13,200
Speaker 1: Iran Iraq War, is there ever returning Iran to a

255
00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:17,720
Speaker 1: pro US, resting face, to being an ally.

256
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:19,480
Speaker 3: No doubt.

257
00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,640
Speaker 2: Listen, remember ninety eleven and how many people on your

258
00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:27,600
Speaker 2: so called allied countries in the Middle East were dancing

259
00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,120
Speaker 2: in the streets in celebration after that attack. The only

260
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:35,080
Speaker 2: country where people held candlelight visual in sympathy to the

261
00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:37,640
Speaker 2: victims of ninety eleven were no other than the Iranian

262
00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:41,520
Speaker 2: people in Iran, in Iran, not just outside of Iran.

263
00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:46,280
Speaker 2: In Iran that was then, and the same people who

264
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 2: today march in rallies in protests against the regime. You

265
00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,800
Speaker 2: will see that in all our demonstrations from Australia to Canada,

266
00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:58,000
Speaker 2: to the US to Europe, there is alongside the Iranian

267
00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:02,960
Speaker 2: national flag, either an Israeli flag or an American flag,

268
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,400
Speaker 2: or whatever the host country in which they live flag.

269
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,320
Speaker 2: That's the Iran that we know, That's the Iran that

270
00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:11,720
Speaker 2: we are, not this regime that always called for death

271
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,560
Speaker 2: to America or death to Israel. And I think many

272
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:18,800
Speaker 2: Americans know that many Americans know a fellow Iranian that

273
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,400
Speaker 2: was either schoolmate of his or a colleague of their,

274
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,280
Speaker 2: or work in a company vice versa. They know that Iranians,

275
00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 2: unlike this regime, are peace loving people, are with that

276
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,480
Speaker 2: culture and civilization, want to be friends with whoever respects

277
00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:40,360
Speaker 2: them and respect that their sovereignty. And America has always

278
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,680
Speaker 2: been a great friend to Iran, and it should be.

279
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,080
Speaker 2: That's the way it should be. And I don't think

280
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 2: that it would be by miracle that this will recur.

281
00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,160
Speaker 2: It's just that this regime has been an aberration. This

282
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:54,120
Speaker 2: regime has been the product of two extreme forces that

283
00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:59,400
Speaker 2: were clearly against the West, the Marxists and the Islamists.

284
00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:05,280
Speaker 2: That that gangs together brought this regime into power. And

285
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,760
Speaker 2: from the very beginning we saw the hostility towards the

286
00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 2: West and the US in particular, and liberated Iran that

287
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 2: doesn't buy into the extreme radical ideology of to titanium.

288
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:21,280
Speaker 2: Marxists or Islamists unlike them, are committed to freedom, are

289
00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,320
Speaker 2: committed to human rights. And guess what America has been

290
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,640
Speaker 2: a beacon of open opportunities. Many Iranians came all the

291
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:31,200
Speaker 2: way to the United States to find refuge or find

292
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,240
Speaker 2: a better life, and most of them, once iranis freed,

293
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,200
Speaker 2: would like to go back to their country to bring

294
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 2: back these very same values that are taken for granted

295
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,520
Speaker 2: here in the United States by many Americans, but that

296
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 2: the Iranians are starving and dying for having in our

297
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 2: own country. And what better partner can we have that

298
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,600
Speaker 2: America to help us not only liberate ourselves and bring

299
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 2: about all the aspects of liberty that we deserve, but

300
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,600
Speaker 2: also what good partners with could be the future and

301
00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:02,880
Speaker 2: the rebuilding of Iran. As President Trump has said, Maga,

302
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,560
Speaker 2: we say Mega make Iran great again, and together with

303
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,720
Speaker 2: America will make both countries great again.

304
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,400
Speaker 1: I have two final questions, Prince, have you noticed from

305
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,439
Speaker 1: your various sources of information that there are fissures within

306
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,800
Speaker 1: the regime, maybe between the IRGC and the regular armed forces.

307
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:22,439
Speaker 1: Do you see that?

308
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,879
Speaker 2: Well, this is nothing new. Remember that the RGC was

309
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 2: created as a parallel military or militia to contain the

310
00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 2: military that the regime, the revolutionary regime of Comeni, could

311
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,639
Speaker 2: never trust. That started right in the early eighties, and

312
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 2: as a result, it became more and more of a

313
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 2: parasitic mafia that took control of many aspects of Iran's economy,

314
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 2: and basically they're in full control of mostly aspects of

315
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 2: the nation. The military, on the other hand, considered itself

316
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,480
Speaker 2: much more of a professional army and a national army,

317
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,760
Speaker 2: so the divide between the RGC and the military was

318
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 2: there from the very get go. In fact, the I

319
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,840
Speaker 2: orgy C doesn't even have the name Iran in its title,

320
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:10,119
Speaker 2: which is kind of basi being militia that doesn't even

321
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:11,840
Speaker 2: have the name of a country in its name. So

322
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,400
Speaker 2: that is an aberration that will need to be uh

323
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,399
Speaker 2: disappearing from the from from as an organization that can

324
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 2: be reincorporated into the military or go to the private sector,

325
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 2: we won't have a parallel militia. So obviously the military

326
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 2: would be a professional army in charge of protecting our

327
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 2: territories and the rest of them could be distributed into

328
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,919
Speaker 2: various aspects of either private sector or other aspects of

329
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,200
Speaker 2: you know, other military institutions or like a national guard

330
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 2: of some form. Anyway, there are plans for that as

331
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,879
Speaker 2: well now, even within the orgycy. Mind you, there are

332
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 2: some who want to defect. There are some who want

333
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,879
Speaker 2: to abandon ship. There are some who are disillusioned. There

334
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 2: are some who may be thought at some point that

335
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 2: this was a sacred cost to fight for.

336
00:18:57,920 --> 00:18:58,679
Speaker 3: But guess what.

337
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 2: Many of them have their chiechildren on the streets that

338
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 2: are being shot at. They also are paying the price

339
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 2: for having been associated with this regime. And as I said,

340
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 2: those who haven't been criminally involved can abandon ship, can

341
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 2: join with the people. This is the last chance to

342
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 2: do so, and at some point they would have to

343
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 2: be accountable for having helped preserve this regime rather than

344
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 2: to come to the rescue of their old citizen tree.

345
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 2: The choices there is there to make, but I think

346
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,639
Speaker 2: this is the outcome that we hope to push for

347
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,920
Speaker 2: and minimize the last pockets of resistance there is out there,

348
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,119
Speaker 2: and hopefully not through vigilantism, but through proper planning and

349
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 2: make sure that they don't even think that they have

350
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 2: a chance of resisting and creating some distractions in the past.

351
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 2: It's more be easy, but it can be done.

352
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 1: Our last question, Prince, you mentioned Persia is very old.

353
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 1: It's twenty five centuries old, so I risk the Great

354
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,680
Speaker 1: and others. It's been an empire forever and it defeated

355
00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 1: the party and it goes way back. But Ilam is

356
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 1: very old in Iran as well, and there are these

357
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 1: enormous centers of learning for Islam within Iran. After a

358
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 1: iteration to democracy, what will be the position of those

359
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:18,360
Speaker 1: modern I mean traditional Muslim studies and Islamic scholars and molas.

360
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 1: Will they have their freedom to recognized and protected as well?

361
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 2: Well? Freedom of religion should be one of the guarantee

362
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 2: of the constitution that is based on the universal the

363
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 2: traation of human rights. And therefore, when we say we

364
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 2: want to have a secular alternative, that doesn't mean that

365
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 2: we have anti religious thoughts. But as much as religions

366
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 2: have to have their right physicist society, what about the

367
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 2: right of atheists, what about the right of the LGBTQ community,

368
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 2: What about human rights in general? I think a future

369
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 2: constitution that will be guaranteeing those rights, among them includes

370
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 2: freedom of religion. Now to this point, I may also

371
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,959
Speaker 2: remind your distinguished audience that is listening to this program

372
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 2: that we have many clerics in Iran that never believed

373
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:09,239
Speaker 2: in this Velayatvapi, which was Komeni's version of establishing an

374
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 2: ideologically based regime that is so radical and treats everybody

375
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 2: in an inferior way and has been discriminating against other

376
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 2: faiths and other religions that have spoken against this regime

377
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 2: and also believe in a secular alternative. In fact, one

378
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 2: of the most prominent religious clerics that we have in Iran,

379
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:31,160
Speaker 2: who is a Sunni cleric leader in Balduzhastan, his name

380
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,200
Speaker 2: is Molavi abdol Havid. He's been calling for a secular

381
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 2: government in the future because he recognizes, among many other

382
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 2: clerics that it is in the best interest of the

383
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 2: faith itself not to be in any shape or from

384
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 2: directly involved in politics. In fact, being directly involved in

385
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 2: politics has weakened the faith and have weakened our religious establishment.

386
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 2: That will be the first one to tell you that.

387
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 2: So therefore they realize that they'll have their place in

388
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 2: society like in any other pre secular country where nobody

389
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 2: is questioning the fact that people have a right to

390
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 2: practice their faith as long as we have a separation

391
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 2: of church from state as a prerequisite to democracy, which

392
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 2: is another thing that has been proven in almost every

393
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,120
Speaker 2: democracy we see around the planet today.

394
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,159
Speaker 1: Prince you've been very generous with your time. Thank you

395
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: for it, and good luck in prayers for the success

396
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: of your movement so that there is in fact an

397
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 1: iteration and evolution of the regime there. Thank you very much, morning,

398
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: Laurie and even Grace America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. Welcome back.

399
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 1: Professor Dan Schiftan is the preeminent Israeli national security expert.

400
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 1: That's what Aviv ready Gore called them in an interview

401
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 1: done with Professor Schifton on February the second, which I

402
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 1: heard and said, we got to go get this guy.

403
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 1: He sounds like Israel's Kissinger. Professor, welcome to the Huhwite Show.

404
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: That was a fabulous episode with Aviv. Thank you for

405
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 1: joining me today. I want to begin by saying to

406
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 1: the audience they should go listen to that entire hour

407
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: and ten minutes with Aviv. It was taped on February second,

408
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: but I don't have that time, so I want to

409
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: condense one thing you said. You said American presidents can

410
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 1: be smarter dumb on the Middle East. Eijen, Arra and

411
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: Obama were dumb. Johnson and Nixon were smart. How do

412
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:13,479
Speaker 1: you rate Trump?

413
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 4: Trump has the right instincts, and mostly what he did

414
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 4: in the Middle East was very helpful for the whole region.

415
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 4: Think of the Abraham McCord. Think of the recognition of

416
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 4: Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and the support he

417
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 4: had for Israel when Israel needed not only to assert

418
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 4: its power, not only to destroy the terrorists, but also

419
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 4: to deter them from the immediate next step. And now

420
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 4: the question is, of course, how it will work with

421
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 4: Iran and with Lebanon. But so far his instincts about

422
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 4: the Middle East were correct, and he was certainly not

423
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 4: the kind of naive president that we had in Jimmy

424
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 4: Carter and in Barack Obama. And hour made a terrible

425
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 4: mistake in his first term in office in nineteen fifty six,

426
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 4: but by nineteen fifty eight he already corrected it by

427
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 4: understanding that it was a mistake to build up Naser.

428
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 4: But you have presidents like Nixon and Kissinger as National

429
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,959
Speaker 4: Security Advisor and Secretary of State who are excellent in

430
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 4: the Middle East.

431
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 1: Professor. That leads us to my second question, what do

432
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 1: you hope President Trump decides to do about Iran? And when.

433
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 4: First of all, I don't think you can arrive at

434
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 4: something that the Iranians will agree to, because whatever Iran

435
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 4: accepts will be terrible for the whole region and beyond

436
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 4: this region. This regime is as dangerous a combination as

437
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 4: we had Nazi Germany, in the sense that the very

438
00:24:55,280 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 4: able people and a very barbaric leadership is a combination

439
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 4: that presents a danger to the entire region and beyond.

440
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 4: And unless this regime is undermined, weakened, and hopefully one

441
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 4: day replaced, you cannot rest in the Middle East with

442
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 4: the regular problems. We have problems even without Iran, but

443
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 4: Iran makes these problems unacceptable, by the way, not only

444
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 4: to the region very soon. If they have nuclear weapons

445
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 4: and ballistic missiles, they can reach Europe, they can dominate

446
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 4: the Middle East, they can use all the oil in

447
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 4: the region, control of Mecca and Medina. They can be

448
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 4: a major power. Let me put it this way, North

449
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 4: Korea will be considered minor compared to Iran if Iran.

450
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 4: If we make the same mistake in Iran that we

451
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 4: made with North Korea, allowing them to get nuclear weapons

452
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 4: and ballistic miocilees.

453
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 1: Now in the conversation with it. You said that the

454
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 1: arch radical the Middle East, Iran had been terribly weakened,

455
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 1: and I agree, But what do you want President trumpet

456
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: serves a lot of American striking power into the region,

457
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: as well as a lot of defensive power that might

458
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: not have been there when the demonstration began, and December

459
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: twenty it definitely wasn't there. Do you want him to

460
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 1: hit Iran this week, next month, three months from now?

461
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: And what do you want him to hit in Iran?

462
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 4: I don't see any other choice, because again, if the

463
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 4: Iranians even agree to something on the nuclear issue but

464
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 4: maintain the unbelievable capacity they have to build a very

465
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 4: large number of ballistic missiles, we will have the same

466
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 4: problem that we have today, only compounded or only multiplied

467
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 4: by ten in a very short time. You need to

468
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 4: destroy the Iranian economy, certainly, not under any circumstances whatsoever

469
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 4: allowed the sanctions to go away. Certainly not to prevent

470
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 4: the possibility of Iran being so weak that it cannot,

471
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 4: at the same time satisfy its own citizens and support

472
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 4: the entire array of proxies that they have in the

473
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 4: Middle East. So whatever is bad for the Iranian economy.

474
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 4: Whatever undermines its military capacity is good. If I thought

475
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 4: that any kind of agreement could be helpful, I would

476
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 4: be for an agreement. It should always be the first choice.

477
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 4: But I don't see any kind of agreement that the

478
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 4: United States can live with, Europe can live with, Israel

479
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 4: can live with, the moderate Arab States can live with.

480
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 4: I don't see any of that, and therefore, now that

481
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,719
Speaker 4: we have the opportunity, I think that the military strike

482
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 4: will be very helpful.

483
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: Now I agree with that assessment of agreements, Professor. I

484
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 1: don't know that I've heard anyone, but you mentioned economic

485
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: targets before. I've asked a number of our military analysts

486
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: who've come on political analysts at President trump on in

487
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 1: fact in January, but I didn't ask him this. Why

488
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 1: Israel and the United States did not hit KRJ Island

489
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: or the other two oil terminals. It run's got nothing

490
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: except oil. I mean, they don't export anything. I guess

491
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: Pistachia and Caveat. Should Carsh Island be taken out in

492
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: a second round of strikes, I.

493
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 4: Would be very careful there. Remember, we don't want an

494
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 4: enormous search in oil prices all around the world. It

495
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 4: will not only be the Iranian resources, it will be

496
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 4: in the entire Gulf. It has impacts on the Straits

497
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 4: of Hormuz. It can change the entire balance of power.

498
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 4: For instance, I don't want the Russians to get more

499
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 4: money from selling oil. After the price of oilrouble doubles.

500
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 4: Remember we under a war we had in nineteen seventy three,

501
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 4: the oil prices quadrupled and again quadrupled. Now I don't

502
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 4: think that we will go that far, but I would

503
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 4: be careful before I do that. If I go in

504
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 4: this direction, I would take it only if other means

505
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 4: don't work, then you have to destroy this as well.

506
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 4: But it's not as if you do it, you harm

507
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 4: me Iran and that's the end of it. That's not

508
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 4: the end of.

509
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 1: It, all right, So, Professor Chaffn, the chiefn, this is

510
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: a missiles first for me, then IRGC headquarters. If you

511
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: can find the Supreme leader, great, blow them up. But

512
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: I that's my target list. Do you have a better one?

513
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 4: I would hit in Iran first of all, the whatever

514
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 4: is left of the nuclear project, whatever you can hit

515
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 4: concerning the missiles, the ballistic missiles, any other military target,

516
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 4: and whatever harms their economy, their ports, there anything that

517
00:29:55,960 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 4: can harm. They are in a terribly economic situation. They

518
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 4: don't have water, they don't have electricity, nothing works. You

519
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 4: need to bring out the people of Iran when they

520
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 4: are desperate about the ability to live in Iran. They're

521
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 4: already in very, very bad shape, and you should compound it.

522
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 4: You should make it even more difficult in Iran economically.

523
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: Okay, what do you make of the regime over the

524
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: weekend putting out AI videos about sinking the Abraham Lincoln,

525
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: sinking other American ships And does that telegraph to you

526
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 1: incredible weakness and fear or are they trying to get

527
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: inside American Ana? They should have bought a Super Bowl ad.

528
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 1: They didn't that they should have if they wanted to

529
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 1: get that message out there.

530
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: What are they doing?

531
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 4: They are I think underestimating the difficulty of their own situation.

532
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,719
Speaker 4: I don't think they understand how bad their situation is,

533
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 4: and they're doing things that they could have done if

534
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 4: they had a better bargaining position. I wouldn't be alarmed

535
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 4: for it, living for it this way, If the Iranians

536
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 4: can hit effectively an American aircraft carrier, then America is

537
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 4: in very very bad shape. And if anything like that happened,

538
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 4: and they even try and the United States doesn't respond

539
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 4: in a very major way, then we have a problem. Look,

540
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 4: these barbarians, you need not only to hit and to starve,

541
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 4: you need to humiliate them. If they're not humiliated, this

542
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 4: is a world order where the United States cannot function.

543
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 4: Then everything you do in Venezuela and in Cuba and

544
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 4: in other parts of the world, and visibly Russia, doesn't

545
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 4: work if you don't break and humiliate these minor threats

546
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 4: to the national security of the United States. What will

547
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 4: the Chinese learn about it when they come to a

548
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 4: hit Taiwan? What will the Russians learn when they need

549
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 4: to reach some kind of an agree in Ukraine in Europe.

550
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 4: So unless you humiliate to break the Iranians, you can't

551
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 4: in any way proceed with any major objective of the

552
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 4: United States on the international arena, Professor.

553
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 1: After Solimani was killed on order to President Trump in

554
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, the Iranians hit the Ali Sade base with

555
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: great precision. Now, we either had the intelligence capability to

556
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: see it coming, or we were tipped off by the

557
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 1: Iranians or a third party that it was coming and

558
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: the base was evacuated. Only a few soldiers were injured.

559
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: So they can hit bases. How much damage do you

560
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: think Ships are different? Ships don't have a GPS, but

561
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 1: bases do. How much damage do you think Iran can

562
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: do to the US to Israel in the Middle East?

563
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: If the United States and Israel hit it very hard,

564
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: very fast.

565
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 4: They can do concer considerable damage to American basis, to

566
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 4: American allies in the Middle East, to Israel. The question is,

567
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 4: are you willing to take a minor hit when you

568
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 4: don't allow them to behave this way or will you

569
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 4: take a ten times harder hit if you wait and

570
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 4: let them not only arm again, but also have the

571
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 4: self confidence that you need in order to do it.

572
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 4: It's not only the Americans who benefited from the fact

573
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 4: that no Americans were killed by the Iranian Besides, Iran

574
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 4: benefited from it because there was no American response. So

575
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 4: unless you prove that whatever they do, you can always

576
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 4: escalate much more than they can. You see, this is

577
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 4: where Israel has a lot of experience over one hundred years,

578
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 4: even before the establishment of the State of Israel. Unless

579
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 4: we can escalate more than all of our enemies. We

580
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 4: are domed, and the United States can definitely escalate. So

581
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 4: whatever the question, the answer is more force. In other words,

582
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 4: if there is one thing that they can do that

583
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 4: we cannot make them sorry that they did, I think

584
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 4: that we are doomed in this region. This is something

585
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 4: that the Israelis have learned from their experience and the

586
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 4: Americans are learning now. Anybody who's not afraid of you,

587
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 4: you should be afraid of them.

588
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: Israel has taken enormous casualties since ten seven, and of

589
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 1: course since the founding of the state and even before

590
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 1: in nineteen twenty nine. In Israel and in the Middle East.

591
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 1: The United States is not very capable of taking casualties

592
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 1: like we did in World War Two, Korea, Vietnam, and

593
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 1: the Long Wars. Do you think do you fear America

594
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,399
Speaker 1: has lost the ability to take casualties. And I say

595
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: that with active duty family members. I am not indifferent

596
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 1: to it. I'm just a realist about this.

597
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 2: Look.

598
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 4: Israel behaved irresponsibly with a Vijamas before the seventh of October,

599
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 4: and we brought the seventh of October on us because

600
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 4: we wanted peace at any cost. We wanted tranquility, at

601
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 4: any cost. We didn't realize that we can't afford it,

602
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:24,280
Speaker 4: and the result was many more casualties. You can either

603
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 4: take some casualties when you select when to go to war,

604
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 4: or many more casualties when they select when to go

605
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 4: to war when they're ready to go to war. So,

606
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 4: because we are more ready now than ever before, and

607
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 4: they are in the weakest possible bargaining position that they've

608
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 4: ever been, this is the time to see to it

609
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 4: that they will regret it.

610
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 1: Professor, I'm talking to you before I talk to Prince

611
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 1: paul A VI, who's coming up in a taping session

612
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: when I'm done with you. I'm curious what you think

613
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: I should ask the Prince about Iran.

614
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 4: How can he or anybody provide a leadership for the

615
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 4: people who are rebelling in Iran. They are unbelievably courageous.

616
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 4: He is all they have at the moment. We need

617
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 4: much more than that in terms of a coordinated leadership,

618
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 4: so that people, on the one hand will not let

619
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 4: the existing situation continue, and at the same time they

620
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:37,760
Speaker 4: should have an alternative reality. Nobody wants chaos in i Iran.

621
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 4: Nobody wants even if this regime is gone to have

622
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 4: a situation where we cannot find a substitute, where we

623
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 4: have nobody responsible in Tehran that we can speak to.

624
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 4: So the most urgent goal of anybody at the moment

625
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 4: concerning the unresting Iran itself is to find a wide

626
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 4: leadership that enjoys the support of a considerable part of

627
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 4: the Iranian people. This is extremely important to remember. When

628
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 4: the Shah fell, it was not so much the weakness

629
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 4: of the Shah, but an alternative was there. The alternative

630
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 4: of Humani was there, and Iranian democrats were stupid enough

631
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 4: in order to believe that they can replace the Shah

632
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 4: together with the Mullahs and then bring about something that

633
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 4: is better than the Shah. A lot of the questions

634
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 4: are decided domestically. When I'm looking at Israel today, my

635
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 4: major concerns are, how do you translate the unbelievable resilience

636
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 4: of the Israeli people that we have shown in this

637
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 4: war into more of a political benefit. So a strong

638
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 4: Israel is strong primary because of a strong society and

639
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 4: a resilient society. In Iran, you have a lot of

640
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 4: brave people, but you don't have enough organized leadership to take.

641
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 1: Over Now Professor, I can remember a time when Iran

642
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 1: was an ally of Israel prior to the revolution. Do

643
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 1: you think it can ever go back to the after

644
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: forty seven years of being sheeped Definitely, an anti Semitic,

645
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 1: anti Israel, anti Americans, it can go back, definitely.

646
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 4: First of all, antisemitic today in the WESITY have so

647
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 4: much antisemitism, including unfortunately in the United States, that if

648
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 4: we were to think that if there is antisemitism, then

649
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 4: we cannot go anywhere, we would be in very bad shape.

650
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 4: Today antisemitism is more popular than any recent time in

651
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 4: history that I can think of. In Iran, you have

652
00:38:54,360 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 4: a people who are unbelievably capable, unlike the Arab world

653
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:04,280
Speaker 4: most of the Arab world, with few exceptions, notably the Ue.

654
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 4: Unlike the Arab world, where you have a society that

655
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 4: is not functioning or is incapable at the moment of

656
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 4: meeting the challenges of the twenty first century. In Iran,

657
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 4: the society is they're capable of a high level of

658
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 4: science of technology. Many of them want a pluralistic society.

659
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 4: My guess is that about a quoted or a third

660
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 4: of the Iranian society wants something like the Mollahs and

661
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:40,399
Speaker 4: a majority of Iranians not only want another regime, but

662
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 4: also are capable to develop a very strong society, a

663
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 4: societies that will be more pluralistic, as societies that can

664
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,280
Speaker 4: win its position in the Middle East, not by rockets

665
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 4: and nuclear weapons, but by being more capable than its

666
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 4: Arab neighbors. So I don't think that people who want

667
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 4: to make Iran great again need to think beyond replacing

668
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 4: this regime. If they replace it with something that functions

669
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 4: and reflects the qualities of a majority of the Iranian people,

670
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 4: we will have a kind of a coalition in the

671
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 4: Middle East of Iran, Israel, and the United States, and

672
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 4: they can work together with those Arabs who want a

673
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 4: more stable Middle East, a less radical Middle East, and

674
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 4: you can have a great future for this region if

675
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:49,320
Speaker 4: there is no major radical force. Remember, most Arab states

676
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 4: at the moment don't want regional wars, don't want major confrontations.

677
00:40:55,640 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 4: Radical forces were eradicated or at least very severely hit

678
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 4: by Israel. Today we have less functioning radicals in the

679
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 4: Middle East than we had before. Today we have to

680
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:14,479
Speaker 4: deal with problems like Turkey and Qatar, which are very

681
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 4: serious problems. And I'm very sorry that the President of

682
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 4: the United States supports Turkey and Katar. But at the

683
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:26,399
Speaker 4: moment in the Middle East, there are no radicals that

684
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 4: are strong enough to change the reality inside the Arab world.

685
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 4: If Iran is out of this picture, the whole region

686
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 4: will look differently.

687
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 1: Two more questions, professor, And you've been generous are your time?

688
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 1: Thank you for that. It's like you're reading my outline.

689
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,720
Speaker 1: You just mentioned United Air of Emirates in the beginning

690
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: of part of the last answer. I think Israel is

691
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: the equal, if not better than any ally America has,

692
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 1: because it's nuclear, because it has the will to use

693
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: its power, because it projects power, and it's pro American.

694
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: Our European ally are a little bit sclerotic. We got

695
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:05,479
Speaker 1: great allies in Asia and Japan and Australia and South

696
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 1: Korea and the Philippines and Taiwan, but Israel is number one.

697
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: Do you put the UAE in the same circle of

698
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 1: allyship for America as everyone other than Israel. I think

699
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,240
Speaker 1: Israel are most important now for a lot of reasons.

700
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 1: But in that second tier, do you put the UAE

701
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 1: in there?

702
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 4: Yes, for two reasons, not only because it's more committed,

703
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 4: but also because there is a fascinating experience in the

704
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,879
Speaker 4: UAE of trying to do something about their own society.

705
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 4: Theyre educate their elite for tolerance. I've had a lot

706
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:47,240
Speaker 4: of experience in the UAE. I visited the place nine

707
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 4: times in the last two years. I'm friends with the

708
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 4: Foreign Minister Sekhabdala, and I'm very very impressed by this person.

709
00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 4: I've been teaching there in their diplomatic academy, and I'm

710
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:08,280
Speaker 4: unbelievably impressed. I'm very deeply impressed by what they're trying

711
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 4: to do in their own society. They are really trying

712
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 4: and succeeding to meet the challenges of the twenty first century.

713
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 4: And I would like to see in the Arab world

714
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 4: more like the UAE. Israel Is, as you said, in

715
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 4: a very unique situation. I think the best thing for

716
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 4: the United States would be if the United States had

717
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 4: three Israels, one in the Middle East, one next to

718
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 4: North Korea, and one next to Venezuela in Cuba. I

719
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 4: think the Americans would have benefited from the fact that

720
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,879
Speaker 4: the Israelis are willing to be fierce and committed when

721
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 4: Americans sometimes hesitate.

722
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,240
Speaker 2: I amen amen.

723
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: Now I want to close on a discordant note, because

724
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: if I agree with you on everything, it's no fun.

725
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,760
Speaker 1: In my view, Professor, I don't know anyone in Israel

726
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 1: who could have led Israel after ten to seven other

727
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 1: than Prime Minister in at Yahoo. I know you were

728
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 1: an advisor to Ravine and Perez and pretty much everybody

729
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 1: else on the other side. Do you agree with me

730
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,360
Speaker 1: that I don't know who, but BB, I don't know

731
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 1: if you need him now, but for the last two

732
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 1: and a half years, could anyone else have done this?

733
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 4: It is a very complex question because Natanyao has a

734
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 4: good strategic mind and made very good important decisions in

735
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:34,279
Speaker 4: this war. On the other hand, his government is the

736
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 4: worst government that Israel ever had, including the ultra Orthodox parasites.

737
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 4: So I think it's a mixed bag. And Israel, like

738
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 4: the United States, like all democracies, has a major problem

739
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:57,720
Speaker 4: where the political sphere is very deeply divided. We are lucky,

740
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 4: unlike the United States, that the Israeli society is not divided,

741
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:06,359
Speaker 4: and the Israeli society is the eighth wonder of the

742
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 4: world in spite of the problems we have on the

743
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 4: political level. But yes, Benjamin Nataniao is all my criticism

744
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 4: against him. On many other things, the decisions in the

745
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 4: major decisions in this war were correct, particularly not stopping

746
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 4: the war when many others, almost everybody pushed enormously to

747
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 4: stop it in the beginning of twenty four. Had we

748
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 4: done it in the beginning of twenty four, the results

749
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 4: would have been catastrophic. And I think that when you

750
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 4: blame somebody for the drought, you also need to give

751
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 4: him credit for the reign. In other words, when you say,

752
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 4: and you should say that being Prime Minister for so long,

753
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 4: he has special responsibility for our being unprepared on October seventh.

754
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 4: At the same time time, coming out of this predicament,

755
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:06,760
Speaker 4: I think the achievements of the moves that he led

756
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 4: were enormous.

757
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 1: Professor Dan Shuftowan, I hope you will come back again

758
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: and again, that was a fabulous half hour, and I

759
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 1: appreciate your taking that much time. And I again I

760
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: recommend everyone go over to ask avif anything the February

761
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,399
Speaker 1: second interview. It's much longer than this. It's seventy one

762
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 1: minutes long and it's all gold. That's where I found

763
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 1: the Professor, I have to give Viva Quarter or something.

764
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 1: I don't know. He's my booking agent, but thank you, professor.

765
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 1: I look forward to talking to you again in the future.

766
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 3: Thank you.

767
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 2: Hi, it's you, Hewett.

768
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 1: You've heard me talk a lot about Consumer Cellular how

769
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 1: you can switch your carrier and save money without sacrifice.

770
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 1: That's because Consumer Cellular uses the same towers as the

771
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 1: major carrier. You'll save money every month on your bill

772
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 1: without having to sacrifice the quality of coverage. Right now,

773
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,399
Speaker 1: you get your second month free plus Folks who are

774
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 1: fit to get two lines of unlimited talk, text and

775
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 1: data for sixty dollars a month to the second month

776
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 1: totally free using promo code Q And are you tired

777
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 1: of your wireless company telling you have to talk to

778
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 1: an AI robot, download an app, or Horizon pay ten

779
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,720
Speaker 1: dollars to talk to someone when paying your bill? Yeah?

780
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,440
Speaker 1: No thanks. Consumer Sellular ranks number one for network coverage

781
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 1: and customer satisfaction according to ACSI, whether you're switching online

782
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 1: or over the phone, you'll be working with an actual

783
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: human being based right here in the US. So switch

784
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 1: and get your second month free plus two unlimited lines

785
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 1: of sixty dollars. If you're over fifty go to consumer

786
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 1: siler dot com slash hu promo Hugh or call one

787
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 1: hundred eight or call one eight hundred four one one

788
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:44,800
Speaker 1: forty four fifty four one eight hundred four one one

789
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 1: forty four to fifty four. That's one eight hundred four

790
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:49,399
Speaker 1: to one, one forty four to fifty four. And don't

791
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 1: forget My code is Hughcica. I'm Hugh Hewett. We're Admiral

792
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 1: Mark Montgomery, retired United States Navy, is with the Foundation

793
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 1: for the Defensive Democracy Disease, a good friend of the program.

794
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 1: Admiral welcome. I'm going to get back to that part

795
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 1: two of Prince Paul a ve after the break with you,

796
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:10,040
Speaker 1: But I got to ask you, what do you think

797
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:13,720
Speaker 1: is going to happen in Iran? And part two? Given

798
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 1: that you've been the strike group commander before of an

799
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 1: aircraft carriers strike group, how much are you worried about

800
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:23,760
Speaker 1: the Lincoln and the escort ships? Then are bases given

801
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 1: Iran saber rattling over the weekend with their AI videos.

802
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 3: So I'll handle number two first and then go to

803
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 3: number one. So number two is you have my I

804
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 3: worried about those? And I'd say, first of all. I'm

805
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 3: glad they've had a couple of weeks in theater to

806
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 3: stabilize after a transit from the Western Pacific from the

807
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 3: South China Sea, they've been able to now operate in

808
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 3: the area for a couple weeks. That's critical, and in fact,

809
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 3: at this point now the benefit the advantage goes to

810
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 3: the US forces here as they get very comfortable operating.

811
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 3: I'm sure the Iranian what's left of their air defense

812
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:01,280
Speaker 3: sports are going up and down, responding to every presumed

813
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 3: or possible aircraft contact. And so for the next three

814
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:06,800
Speaker 3: months or so, we're going to be in a groove.

815
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 3: I think after about three months we get a little

816
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:11,280
Speaker 3: tired out at sea, but we're in a nice groove

817
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:13,759
Speaker 3: here for about three months. So I feel really good

818
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 3: and I feel they can protect themselves. We just watched

819
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:23,280
Speaker 3: twenty two months of unremitting drone, cruise, missile and hypersonic

820
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 3: missile attacks on our forces in the Red Sea, where

821
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 3: we shot down several hundred of those type missiles and

822
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 3: drones and of all types, you know, at the cost

823
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 3: of several of a couple billion dollars, but still very successful.

824
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 3: So I feel comfortable that we can handle that mission

825
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 3: that our ships are safe. Now, you did also mention

826
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 3: our ground force. Our ground force is a different issue.

827
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 3: Not that we don't have great air defense forces in

828
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 3: our army, but what we don't have is great air

829
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 3: defence forces of our army at all sixteen to eighteen

830
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:58,239
Speaker 3: facilities there may or may not have American State at them.

831
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 3: In the Middle East and those rains form Syria to

832
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 3: Rock to Guitar Uae, Nitia Air Memorate, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain

833
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 3: or Naval Base is and Kuwait. We have forces at

834
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 3: all those bases. There's no way we can, you know,

835
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 3: defend them all against all types of threats. So I

836
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 3: feel there's probably some risk to those forces and they

837
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 3: need to have good sheltering and obviously the threat that

838
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 3: we will counter strike aggressively if they're attacked directly.

839
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:31,879
Speaker 1: Okay, So the first question is what do you want

840
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 1: us to attack, if anything, and when do you want

841
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 1: us to do it? If you have a time frame

842
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 1: that you're willing to share, some people don't want to

843
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 1: share it.

844
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 3: I do. Look, I don't know when it's going to

845
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 3: be because this president, among all others, practices you know,

846
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 3: what we call strategic uncertainty. Right, it's not strategic ambiguity anymore.

847
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 3: It's strategic uncertainty. That's fine. He's president, he gets to

848
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 3: do that. So what I would do if I were him,

849
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 3: is I would be hitting I would have I would

850
00:50:57,520 --> 00:51:01,720
Speaker 3: ask for a war plan that covers a campaign plan

851
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 3: that covers different lines of effort, and then he gets

852
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 3: to pick and choose. He might choose all of them.

853
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 3: And then also a campaign plan, by the way, that

854
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,879
Speaker 3: integrates with Israel. So if Israel joins in, you get

855
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 3: a two for the price of one event, and you know,

856
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 3: and you can get you know, strike three four hundred

857
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:19,840
Speaker 3: targets a night. But what I would ask for is

858
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:26,520
Speaker 3: missile production facilities, missile stowage, and field facilities. So remove

859
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 3: their ballistic and cruise missile capabilities. And we then do

860
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 3: the same for the drones, so remove their droll cabilities.

861
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 3: That'd be line of effort one, line of effort, two

862
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:37,239
Speaker 3: line of effort. Three might be reattacking their nuclear facilities

863
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 3: anywhere where we think they've made some headway, headed anywhere

864
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 3: where we think they moved things to after the strike

865
00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 3: before after the strike at four to oh, we hit that,

866
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 3: and then that's Those are the first three to me

867
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 3: are easy. Then come the two hard ones. How much

868
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 3: do we try to eliminate Iranian Revolutionary Guard comment IRGC leadership.

869
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,799
Speaker 3: We can't remove the IRGC. It's one hundred and twenty

870
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 3: five thousand strong, probably fifty thousand or true ideological you

871
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 3: know believers. You can't kill all of those, but you

872
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 3: could definitely eliminate a lot of their leadership. And then finally,

873
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 3: the fifth target set would be their refining capability, their

874
00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 3: economic productivity, and say, look, we could try to get

875
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:26,879
Speaker 3: that by grabbing the shadow fleet ships. This is kind

876
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 3: of a quicker way to do it, you know, our

877
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 3: choice there. But those would be the five lines of effort.

878
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 3: And if I were briefing the President, I would go

879
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,240
Speaker 3: after probably the first four. I'd probably leave the energy

880
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:39,439
Speaker 3: one for just grabbing their shadow fleet ships.

881
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 1: So, Admiral, this is I want to make sure my

882
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 1: question is understood. Every casualty is a life event for

883
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 1: a whole family of Americans. Every wounding, every death, it's

884
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:56,359
Speaker 1: a terrible thing. America had a certain casualty patients in

885
00:52:56,400 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 1: World War Two in Korea. Then it went down in Vietnam,

886
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: and it went down further in deserted one and then

887
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:06,400
Speaker 1: in the Iraq and Afghanistan work. What is the casualty

888
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:08,360
Speaker 1: capacity for America now?

889
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:13,920
Speaker 3: So look, I don't believe America likes any casualties. Think

890
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:18,359
Speaker 3: you're right. I will remind people we practice and train

891
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 3: for these fights year round and lose literally several hundred soldier, sailors,

892
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 3: air me marine a year in different types of training casualties,

893
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 3: you know. I mean maybe it's low one hundreds, but

894
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 3: still not an insignificant number. So we prepare for that,

895
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:36,840
Speaker 3: you know, As you know, I have a son in

896
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 3: the military. I think about that all the time. But

897
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:41,759
Speaker 3: it's one of those things that I think you have

898
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:45,320
Speaker 3: to understand is part of the ethos and military services.

899
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 3: You're there to serve and to do the mission the

900
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 3: President says. So I don't think that's I don't think

901
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 3: that should stop us. Now, look, that inhibits the president

902
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 3: planning a large ground defensive, right, there's no doubt about that.

903
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 3: But I think an air campaign has a level of

904
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 3: risk that the president can accept. And so my gut,

905
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 3: that doesn't mean zero casuties, you know, and God forbid

906
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 3: a prisoner of war. I mean, those are things that

907
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 3: could happen. But the reality is we have a strong

908
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 3: our air defense. Our ability to establish air control over

909
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 3: Runnian airspace is much higher than we probably thought it

910
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 3: was two years ago, thanks to the work of the Israelis.

911
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:32,839
Speaker 1: So what is the casualty or damage capacity of our

912
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:36,880
Speaker 1: allies not named Israel in the region, because boy if Turkey,

913
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 1: Egypt and cod are doing their best to get us

914
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:40,200
Speaker 1: to stand down.

915
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I mean, I don't think Turkey and Egypt

916
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:46,200
Speaker 3: are going to be affected by this, but you're right,

917
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 3: they're playing spoiler roles in that fact it spoiler being

918
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 3: probably the wrong term there, but you know negative Nelly rules. Look,

919
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 3: Qatar is legit. Qatar could get hit by this. You know,

920
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:01,360
Speaker 3: we have a very large base there, We have facilities

921
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 3: spread in different parts of the country, So Katar is

922
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 3: a legitimate reason to be concerned. Look, they don't have

923
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 3: a lot of appetite for casualties, but the Iranians would

924
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 3: be foolish to strike civilian sites in those countries. Now.

925
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:18,760
Speaker 3: I don't think they would intentionally do it, they could

926
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 3: accidentally do it with these strikes. I mean, the real

927
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 3: risk is the one that you took off the board

928
00:55:23,640 --> 00:55:25,879
Speaker 3: at the very beginning of that question. That's Israel, where

929
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:28,239
Speaker 3: I think there is no doubt in either of our

930
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:31,720
Speaker 3: minds that Iran will attempt to impose costs on Israel

931
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 3: with long range but didn't rearrange bilistic missile and their

932
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 3: long range short range ballistic missile shots as they did

933
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:41,080
Speaker 3: during the Twelve Day War. And as we recall, some

934
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:41,720
Speaker 3: get through.

935
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep talking to Admiral Montgomery in the break

936
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 1: and play it an hour three. So don't go anywhere, America,

937
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:50,919
Speaker 1: stay tuned to the hue uh. I'll be right back

938
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 1: to you. Thanks for sticking around, Admiral Montgomery for part two. Here.

939
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:58,399
Speaker 1: I am very outspoken that I don't think Donald Trump

940
00:55:58,440 --> 00:55:59,880
Speaker 1: can do nothing here. I think he has to hit

941
00:55:59,920 --> 00:56:02,320
Speaker 1: it round pretty hard or his presidency is cripple and

942
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:04,840
Speaker 1: history will be very unkind to him. What do you

943
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 1: think about that? And what does it do to the

944
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 1: deterrence of the United States elsewhere in the world if

945
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 1: he doesn't do anything.

946
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 3: Well, first, you got to give President I agree with you,

947
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 3: and you got to give President Trump credit. He has

948
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 3: restored some of the belief about our returns with the

949
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 3: strikes on Fodoh. When he joined the Israelis and that

950
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:23,560
Speaker 3: that was a that was a weapon strike that myself

951
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 3: and other generals and animals had argued for fifteen years

952
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:31,279
Speaker 3: and we finally did it. And then again in Venezuela,

953
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 3: you know, the operation to secure Maduro. I mean, these

954
00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 3: are significant military operations that introduce you know, risk, you know,

955
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:45,880
Speaker 3: they introduce a strategic uncertainty for the adversary, whether it's Russia, China,

956
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:50,040
Speaker 3: Ron or North Korea. Trump will take action, so should

957
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 3: he in this case have said I'm with you boys

958
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 3: to the protesters and then not shown up. Ever, he

959
00:56:57,239 --> 00:56:58,799
Speaker 3: has a problem. You know, we know why he didn't

960
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:00,919
Speaker 3: show up initially, which is that he got briefed after

961
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:02,960
Speaker 3: he said that, hey, sir, we're really not in a

962
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 3: great defensive posture. We can strike them, we can always strike.

963
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 3: We've got long ring strike from B two bombers, but

964
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:14,319
Speaker 3: we can't accept the the return fire with good with

965
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 3: our normal good for defense systems. So he had to

966
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 3: back off. Now he's still got to carry through on that.

967
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 3: In my mind, I'm with you. I think it's about

968
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 3: three months. There's a Ramadan timeframe in here that we

969
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:28,840
Speaker 3: may want to wait through. I mean, if you want

970
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:31,600
Speaker 3: protesters to come out. You should not be doing this

971
00:57:31,640 --> 00:57:34,280
Speaker 3: during Ramadan. You don't want the people the other people

972
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 3: of ran met at him over coming out during Ramadan.

973
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 3: You know, you want general support for this. So in

974
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 3: my mind, unless you're just taking out the ballistic missile systems,

975
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 3: just taking out the drone systems, I think they're gonna

976
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 3: have to wait till after Ramadan. But Mike, you know,

977
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:53,479
Speaker 3: when do I start feeling uncomfortable as to carry strike

978
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:56,120
Speaker 3: commander out there? Past three and a half months, on

979
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 3: the end of another three months, it was in this

980
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 3: out I see, you know, not the people get not

981
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 3: that we you know, are negligent, but you know, you

982
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 3: do get tired, and you get you do get kind

983
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:11,600
Speaker 3: of bored by the redundancy of not striking over three months.

984
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 3: So I'm hoping the end the end of this, the

985
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:16,959
Speaker 3: right side limit is about three months from.

986
00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 1: Now, Admiral Mark Mincart That's what I was looking for.

987
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:22,479
Speaker 1: Thank you for that. I appreciate you. You're sticking around

988
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 1: for the extra time and I'll be playing that nowur

989
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 1: number three today. I appreciate it. Adam. I'll talk to

990
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 1: you again soon.

991
00:58:27,320 --> 00:58:27,600
Speaker 3: Thank you.

992
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 2: Thank