WEBVTT - Peace Talks Fail, Blockade Begins 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 Hillsdale Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple, 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:19.000 iTunes and Hillsdale Hewett. So please, but welcome back to 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:23.160 the program. Admiral Mark Sea montgomery 'admiral Montgomery's retired from 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:25.960 the United States Navy. He is in the past commanded 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:28.720 carrier groups and he joins me from I don't know where. 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:31.520 He's always going around the globe somewhere. Admiral, thank you 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:35.320 for joining us again, fairly soon after your last appearance. 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:38.479 But we've had a big new development, an embargo a blockade. 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:41.440 Let me begin by asking you how do we do that? 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:44.559 Thank you for having you. 0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:47.920 I am in Taiwan, where blockades are an interesting topic, 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.519 So how do we do this one? This one is 0:00:51.560 --> 0:00:55.560 about I fully support this. The President had a couple 0:00:55.600 --> 0:01:01.279 options here. Iran was illegally blocking the you know, transit 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:04.240 passage of merchant ships to the Straits orb who was 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:07.039 trying to charge a toll you know, in contravention of 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:09.840 international law. He had two options, and one he could 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:12.960 go back to the kinnetic attacks he was doing before 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:17.800 the ceasefire, knock their you know, missiles, drones and such back, 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:22.559 and then under you know, under threat of US military attack, 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:27.680 escort threw merchant ships. The merchant ships weren't thrilled with 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:29.600 this because there's still risk to them, you know, it's 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:31.760 a very high risk in terms of the cost of their. 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:34.680 Of their cargo. So that was one option. 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:37.320 He chose the second option, which is, look, if you're 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:40.360 going to block everyone else who doesn't pay you a toll, 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:43.120 whose country of origin you don't like, I'm going to 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:48.880 block you, and I'm going to stop detain sees and 0:01:48.920 --> 0:01:53.960 divert to friendly ports. Ships you know that have that 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:58.680 have that have ported in Iranian ports and are now 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:00.640 coming out of the streets trying to deliver you know, 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:01.920 mostly fossil fuels. 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:04.720 And so I think this is the right thing to do. 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:06.280 It is a it is the. 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:11.079 Much less risky to our force, much more direct you know, 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:16.080 uh mission application of Iran knock this off. 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:20.120 So I add noll how many ships I've seen reports 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:23.359 that we have fifteen ships on the station. I'm sure 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:26.160 other ones are going there, and the hw Bush is 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:28.120 coming around the long way. They're not going through the 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:30.560 Red Sea to get there. How many ships do you 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:33.960 need to effectively blockade? Both the Arabian Golf and the 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:36.320 Golf are going on Iranian ports. 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:42.440 So I think what you do is you're selected. The 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:45.480 answer is, you know variable, because you can select, do 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:49.840 I try to stop every possible ship that's going to 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.720 take a good number, you know, fifteen plus ships just 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:57.239 I think for the Iranian side of it, the Gulf, 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:02.120 the Arabian Golf, Sigh and Gulf of Amn side of it. 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:07.400 But you know, if you seize enough of these, detain 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:12.400 and seize them, work gets around the shadow fleet. The 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:15.880 shadow fleet ships that hey, this is a bad business 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:17.960 deal for us. The owners of those ships, the merchant, 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.880 the captains of those ships, they may be criminals, but 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:23.320 they're not stupid, right like they do not want to 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:24.280 have their vessel seas. 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:26.160 And by the way, once their vessel seas they're in 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:28.040 the world have hurt. The chance that they. 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:30.960 Haven't done other violations, that the chance that once they 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:35.160 were criminals, they kept adhering to International Maritime Organization rules 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:38.440 for safety are pretty low. My gut reaction is those 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:40.880 ships will be you know, fined and held for a 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:44.240 long period of time. But the bottom line is deterrents 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:48.080 will kick in. And so the question how many you need, 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.200 you need a bunch up front, and I think fifteen 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:51.600 is a pretty good number to start with. 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:55.880 Now, I read that we had in the chase of 0:03:56.000 --> 0:04:01.520 the Venezuelan tankers, two destroyers and an e SB exhibition 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:05.640 I C base, overtake and board in seas of Venezuela 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:08.440 and hot tanker. Is that what we have in mind here? 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:10.360 ESPs and destroyers. 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:16.160 I think the boarding teams can be deployed from ESVs 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:19.840 that can be deployed from destroyers. I think we'll get 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.560 efficient at that so that they can be deployed from 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:24.360 a lot of different assets and then you only need 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:27.839 one asset. That was also a political chase where we 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:30.600 were deciding what to do because the Russians the thing 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:32.479 kept switching its flag of origin. 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:36.520 Once you leave in Iranian port, you've tripped the wire 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:36.920 on this. 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:39.880 You can't change your flag of origin and hope that 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:42.280 it's going to make a significant change in the pace 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:47.200 with which we board you. So My take is that 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:49.880 this will not be one of these extended you know, 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:53.080 trans atlantic all the way from Venezuela to the coast 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:56.880 of the ukata Iceland Gap. It won't be one of those. 0:04:57.000 --> 0:05:00.520 It these will be much quicker, much more, you know, 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:03.680 much more aggressive in our boarding. The boarding teams are 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.440 limited too, although we do, you know, have a great 0:05:06.520 --> 0:05:08.080 number of special forces trained in this. 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:09.200 You want to just get them. 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:11.760 Up to speed on the latest steps of doing, you know, 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:14.400 making sure you get everybody current, and then you can 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:16.479 have multiple teams ready to go. You don't have to 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:18.799 have just one or two teams doing all these boardings. 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:21.960 I had Admiral mcgraven on at the end of last year. 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:23.559 He was talking about a new book, but he also 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:25.719 referenced in that book that he was doing this in 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:30.960 the Indian Ocean, repelling down onto tankers prior to the 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.960 nineteen ninety one war with Saddam because we had a 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:36.800 UN resolution that authorized it. We don't have a UN 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:40.400 resolution authorizing this. Do you think we are comporting with 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:42.880 the law of the sea when we board tankers like this? 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:48.640 I do if we feel Look, I'm pretty sure I'm 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.240 not a maritime law expert I do not believe there's 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:54.720 like a rico, you know, a clause in maritime law. 0:05:54.760 --> 0:06:00.120 But that's what's really happening here. Aroan is breaking international 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:05.920 law by by preferentially giving transit passage to ships that 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:10.880 either are Iranian or pay tolls to Iran. All illegal 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:14.640 in my mind, these ships are participating in that conspiracy 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.800 and benefiting from it. I think at a minimum that 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.359 gives us the opportunity to board it. Whether whether we 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:22.520 can seize them under that is going to be different. 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:28.040 But they definitely have been participating in an illegal activity 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:32.960 soborn by the Iranian the IRGC. So we'll have to 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:35.120 watch what, you know, we'll have to watch on this 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:36.360 how far we can take this. 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:40.040 Some ships will be violating other sanctions that exist. 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.560 About Iran's oil, and other ones will be violated, you know, 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:46.200 some are you know, there are law, there are sanctions 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:50.120 against Iran already in existence before this. So if we're 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:53.440 just simply enforcing that, then in that case, you know, 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:55.760 we'll be completely within international and I'll probably be able 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:59.000 to seize and you know, seize the content the cargo 0:06:59.040 --> 0:06:59.520 as well. 0:06:59.880 --> 0:07:01.440 So I think I'm okay on that. 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:04.600 What is the risk to our boarding. You know, I'm 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:08.800 thinking right now Jack Aubrey and Patrick O'Brien novels, and 0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:11.440 now it's a prize cruise and there's always a boarding 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:13.480 party and a lot of people all got knocked over 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:15.920 the head. But then the prize crews would sail the 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:19.160 prize away. What happened to our special operators when they 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:20.680 come down? What's their level of risk? 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:23.720 So there's different levels of visit boarding. 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:27.400 So Adam McCrae been talking about the highest level when 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:31.040 it's done by special operators like himself or much younger 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:36.200 versions of him. Now we also do this with other 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.200 people like I did VBSS boardings. I mean we did 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:42.160 it with traditional Navy officers as well, and Navy enlisted 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:45.239 to personnel, and with Coast Guard enlisted personnel and officers 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:47.280 on board the ships. So there's all kinds of different 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:51.800 levels of visit boarding these kind of teams. I suspect 0:07:51.800 --> 0:07:54.440 that we start with the high level, the Admiral McCabe 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:58.720 and Sealed Team special operator focused level, and then we 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:02.120 see what the hell the threat emerges on these when 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.320 they drop down. I don't worry too much about like 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:08.480 crew gets mutantus because a crew. Getting mutants against five 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:11.040 or six admal mcgraveans is not going to go well 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:11.360 for the. 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:13.040 Crew and wor to goot around. 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.120 Don't do that, then you put you bring on actual 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:20.480 mariners who begin who direct the ship's crew in the 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:22.520 operation of the ship to bring it into the port 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:23.840 where you're going to detain them. 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:28.200 Okay, now that that raises a very arcane thing. Where 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:29.760 do we go with the crew? I mean, what do 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:31.640 we do with the hot oil in the ship? 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:37.480 Well, we're gonna have to find a completely a a 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:42.520 participating port, you know, a country who's willing to support 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:44.280 us on this and take these ships. 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:48.280 That if it were inside the Arabian golf, that's pretty easy. 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:50.520 I could name any of a number of Arab states 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:53.040 that are happy to hold these for us. Outside the 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:55.720 Arabian Golf, it gets a little more complicated whether Oman 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:59.839 will take them obviously, you know, you can think about Yemen, 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:01.040 Pakistan and India. 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:02.200 They're probably not going to take. 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:05.400 Them, and so you have to start, you know, working 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:08.880 your way around and finding someone who is who is. 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:13.000 In charge of the specifics of an embargo. Admiral you've 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:15.840 been in and out of depending on forever who's working 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:18.320 this plan, because this is the first time we've done 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:19.280 this since Cuba. 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:24.640 I think, well, we've done sanctioned enforcement though, I mean 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:27.040 just off of Venezuela, we did it. We've done it 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:30.920 against Iran, we've better. I don't believe we've done it 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:34.040 against Russia explicitly, although we've been authorized to. We've just 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:34.840 chosen not to. 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.000 And we've done it in the past against Iran and 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:42.920 North Korea over years, so we know how to do it. 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:43.240 It is. 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:46.120 You're right, though it is an interagency process between the 0:09:46.120 --> 0:09:49.880 State Department and the Department of Defense. It's informed by 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:53.400 the intelligence community, so there's a lot of you know, 0:09:53.480 --> 0:09:56.760 this has got to be done properly, but you know, 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:59.800 the planning for it is coming out of US Central Command. 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:02.640 The are been authorized as line of effort and they're 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:05.920 coming to the plan, but it definitely needs State Department support. 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.600 They're the ones who go contact countries, I think, and say, 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:12.800 can we bring you these ships, which you're not going 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:16.320 to appreciate getting unless you already have significant beef with 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:17.800 the rod in which case you won't care. 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:22.280 And the cargo on them are they sees for the 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:25.000 benefit of the international community. Who have been hurt by Iran, 0:10:26.559 --> 0:10:27.040 So that. 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:32.000 Depends on whether they're in violation of an existing sanctions 0:10:32.080 --> 0:10:34.480 norm you know, some of these will be so some 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:36.720 of these will be treated differently than others. 0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:39.280 All right, I'll be right back with Admiral Montgomery after 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:40.800 the break. During the break, I'm going to talk to 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:44.120 him about any conditions under which we might actually sink 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:47.360 as chef. That'll be over at my YouTube page. Don't 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.080 go anywhere, stay on the sale on news channel. I'm 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:53.880 back with Admiral Montgomery between network broadcasts. Admiral, are there 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:56.000 any conditions under which you can imagine we would have 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:57.480 to sink a ship leaving Iran? 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:05.040 Ship is remains non compliant and it's in our efforts 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:06.840 to board it, you know, keeps its speed up. 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:10.080 You know, first of all, we can board by helicopters. 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:12.720 At that point, we may also do some disabling fire. 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:15.360 I don't think we're gonna like doing that, because you know, 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:17.800 I'm not saying this is the pottery barn rules of 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:20.760 general power, where you break it, you own it. But 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:22.560 if you break it and then you want to take 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:24.360 it someplace, now you've got to toe it. 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:28.079 So we'll be trying our hardest not to do damage. 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:31.079 The ship as we it's engineering plan, as we board 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:32.280 it and and get it out. 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.800 Now, having said that, if we drop guys. 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.920 On and there is uh, you know, some kind of 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:42.800 kinetic response by the Iranians, you know, we'll fight it 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:47.160 and then drop back and if necessary, you know, take 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:49.560 further action against the ship that could result in the sinking. 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.000 I doubt it. I think I think the Seals would 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:55.320 win most of those you know meetings. 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:58.839 Would we would we give notice to a crew to 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:02.319 abandoned ship of are we disabled or sunk it? Because 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:04.800 it's an oil tanker, I assume it can explode at 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.800 some point, Yes. 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:10.520 We would give we give the crew fair warning. Look, first, 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.480 we're just trying to get them to lay two so 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:15.600 we can board them. If they failed to allow us 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:20.880 to do that, we might be disabling fire if necessary. Again, 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:22.000 we're going to try to prevent that. 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:24.320 We're gonna but if we ever get to the point 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.520 where we're going to sink it, we would give fair warning, 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.959 I think, because my presumption is that some of the 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:32.680 like the boat engineers and stuff are non combatants. In 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:36.680 that case, they're just you know, unfortunate criminals along for 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.280 the ride, and you know, we want to give them 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.120 an opportunity to get off. I don't think we'd give 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:41.040 them a lot of time though. 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:48.280 Now it's a speculative, Admiral. Are the American Naval officers 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:51.480 and crews involved in this? Are they excited to be 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:56.920 doing this? Is this something that they live for? You know? 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.760 I did a VBSS boarding of a ship where they 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:04.920 sequentially shoveled sheep crap down on all of us as 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:08.400 we climbed up the ladder wells to it that I 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:11.360 did not look forward to the next few boardings. 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.480 But in general, this is about doing the mission. 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:17.880 I think, I think seal you know, our special operators 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:23.319 have a operator. They get into an operational mindset and 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.319 I'm not sure happy is the right word, but driven 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:30.880 and fixated and focused and mission accomplished. So I'm not 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.600 you know, the Seals will be fine. The Navy people 0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:36.760 supporting them, let's visit, boarding surgencies will be fine. I 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:41.280 these these will not be considered unimportant missions by by 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:42.440 naval crews. 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:44.800 And one minute too we go back. Is the Navy 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:47.200 under stress right now? Given the number of ships we 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:48.480 have and how many are deployed. 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:54.120 So it's becoming under stress. And you know this, this 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:56.160 is a law. You know this is an extended a pointment. 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.960 We were under stressed after October seventh when we served 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:02.559 ships to the Middle East. That's maintained through the Venezuela 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.839 operations and now the increase for this. So what I 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.320 would tell you is it's you have to look across 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:12.120 a two to three year spectrum and say, too many 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:16.120 ships have been underway, missing maintenance availabilities, getting backed up 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:21.040 for training assessments, crews deployed excess amount of times. Yes, 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:24.040 we are under stressed. Air Force fighter squadrons under stressed, 0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:26.880 and RB air defenders are under stressed. Those are three 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:31.200 vital assets that have been pushed hard in the Middle East. So, yes, 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:31.840 there's stress. 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.920 But we're coming right back with the Admiral standby, be 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:40.320 right back. Welcome back in America. I'm gonna do it 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.520 with a senior fellow for the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy. 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:46.680 We're Admiral Mark Montgomery, retired in the United States Navy. 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:50.120 I remember we have watched a six week war unfold, 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:54.120 its head turns and twists, the blow up in Islamabad. 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:59.360 Now the embargo how do you assess how it's going overall? 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.880 Well, look, if our you know, if our strategic goal 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:08.880 was regime change, where we have not, we're not on 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:09.840 track to achieve it. 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:13.200 If our strategic goal is change how the regime acts 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:16.400 towards its partners, towards Israel, towards the United States, we're 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:19.160 on the sp we're moving that, and we've applied a 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:21.680 lot of combat power that makes it. You know, as 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:26.080 Brad Admiral Cooper and Denial Kine have laid out, we 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:30.640 have really eliminated a significant amount of their of Iran's 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:36.160 cost and position capabilities and their production facilities to reconstitute them. 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:38.920 So there, I would tell you we've made a lot 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:43.760 of progress on that, but obviously we haven't achieved, you know, 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:47.480 a complete change in how the regime acts, as evidence 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.120 by them walking away from Vice. 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:52.320 President advance in Asamabad. 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:57.720 I think the embargo will be another pressure element applied 0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:00.760 to them. This is going to hurt them economically significantly, 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:03.640 and we'll see if it brings them back to the 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.640 table so they do change the regime's behavior. 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.800 No, No, I count this as a strategic win. I'd 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:12.280 like your opinion on it. This is Secretary of Rubio 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.800 speaking bluntly about the regime in Iran, cut number six. 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:20.880 These people are lunatics, They are insane. They are religious 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:23.400 zelots who can never be allowed to possess a nuclear 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:25.880 weapon because they have an apocalyptic vision of the future. 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:27.920 And all of their neighbors know that, by the way, 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:28.720 which is why. 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:31.400 All of their nual I think that's the kind of 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:34.840 clarity America needed about the Islamic Republic, and I count 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:38.160 that as a win. Do you, I do. 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.360 I think it'd even better if we played clips from 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:45.160 the Supreme previous Supreme leaders comments about what they would 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:49.400 do to Israel when they got a bomb, what they 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:50.840 would do in the United States when they got a 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:55.000 bomb and a long range ICBM. There's no doubt that 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:59.720 they had apocryphal intentions towards Israel and eventually towards the 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:03.480 US States. We're holding we're holding them accountable for what 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:05.640 they said they would do when they got those weapons, 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.560 and preventing them from getting the precursors those weapons, whether 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:12.679 they be in ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, is absolutely appropriate. 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:15.440 Last question, Adam, I give you a couple of minutes 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.440 to open this up on for people to be educated. 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:21.840 We've invested a lot of our navy's resources and our 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:26.359 military's capital in the Middle East for thirty months since 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:29.679 ten to seven, and rightly, so, where have we thinned 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.600 it out in response? Because we don't have a lot 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:37.359 of strategic reserve built into our military. 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:42.080 You're absolutely right, Hugh, is that when there's a we 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:44.240 have you know, two hundred and eighty to three hundred 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:47.320 ships at any one time and commission, about a third 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:51.560 of them can be underway and about you know, seventy 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:54.280 to eighty could be like deployed. So when you have 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:57.480 a significant amount deployed like this on this mission, it 0:17:57.600 --> 0:17:59.480 means that you're not doing something someplace else. 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:03.119 I think it's the Western Pacific is the big loser 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:05.760 on this. And you know a number of ships that 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:09.719 are operating, you know, from the Koream Peninsula down to Singapore, 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:13.520 you know, down to Australia is low because we push 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:16.880 those ships forward either and we haven't had ships stop there. 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:19.280 They've gone from San Diego all the way straight to 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:21.280 the Arabian Gulf. 0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:24.560 We've got to prevent that. Right, we are losing some 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:30.359 deterrent impact on China. But what I'm really worried about 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:32.639 is two to three years from now, there's going to 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:35.879 be a readiness deficit, both in the Navy ships, the 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:38.639 Air Force fighter squadrons that we have at Basis, and 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:43.600 Army air defenders. All three of those assets are burning 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:45.080 readiness right now. In the Middle East. 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:48.320 It's important they're burning readiness because we're accomplishing a national 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:52.960 security a mission tasked by the President. But when that's over, 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.240 you need to understand that our ability to do other 0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:56.639 missions is impacted. 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.240 I don't understand that, Admiral, what do you mean we're 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:00.000 burning readiness? 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:03.880 That means what happens is when ships do these kind 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.359 of missions, and you served ships in to do we 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:09.560 wouldn't normally have fifteen destroyers in the Middle East. We'd 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:12.320 have them doing training, doing maintenance, doing other things. 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:15.560 What happens is they all come back and they try 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:18.959 to pile into maintenance activities together and they get extended out. 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:21.720 Over two or three years. They tried to pile into 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:24.280 training activities to get it and expanded out. So when 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.480 you look forward, like twenty four or thirty six or 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:32.280 forty eight months from now, there's a lot less ships underway. Famously, 0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:34.639 we did this in twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen in 0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:36.520 the Middle East, where we had two carrier strike groups 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:40.440 on deployment for eighteen months straight. The reflection came four 0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:43.679 years later, twenty seventeen President Trump and his first year 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:47.560 as president, he had no carriers deploy So that was 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:51.320 the readiness had been burned four years earlier, and ships 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:54.480 were not effectively ready to go, you know, four years. 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:57.800 Hence now carriers tend to show themselves much later. 0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:00.200 The destroyers will be earlier two to three year years 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:00.399 from now. 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:03.919 There'll be lesser stories available for underway operations because of 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:07.040 the excess deployment time they're doing right now and did 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:08.720 six months ago and twelve months ago. 0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:13.040 Okay, last question, Admiral, our allies in the Pacific, Philippines, 0:20:13.080 --> 0:20:17.880 Australia and Singapore, Taiwan, Japan. Are they viewing this as 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:21.439 a net plus because Iran might flip from being with 0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:24.119 the alliance of tyrants to being at least neutral, maybe 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:26.600 on our side, or are they viewing it as a 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:29.919 positive negative in other words, a disaster for readiness in 0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:30.520 the Pacific. 0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:34.760 Look, they understand both of those impacts, and I'll tell 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:37.080 you they take a third one, which is they like 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:39.880 to see the United States standing up to an authoritarian 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:43.600 regime right alongside a model ally Israel. You know who's 0:20:43.600 --> 0:20:46.919 another model, ally Japan as they increase their defense spending. 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:49.680 You know who's another model, ally Korea as they increase 0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:53.679 their defense spending, another model ally Taiwan. Those three countries 0:20:53.720 --> 0:20:57.320 see this and see the United States taking action alongside 0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:01.040 in this case a non treaty ally Israel, and they 0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:01.680 appreciate it. 0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:02.720 And non treaty. 0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:07.120