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Speaker 1: the program. Admiral Mark Sea montgomery 'admiral Montgomery's retired from
Speaker 1: the United States Navy. He is in the past commanded
Speaker 1: carrier groups and he joins me from I don't know where.
Speaker 1: He's always going around the globe somewhere. Admiral, thank you
Speaker 1: for joining us again, fairly soon after your last appearance.
Speaker 1: But we've had a big new development, an embargo a blockade.
Speaker 1: Let me begin by asking you how do we do that?
Speaker 2: Thank you for having you.
Speaker 3: I am in Taiwan, where blockades are an interesting topic,
Speaker 3: So how do we do this one? This one is
Speaker 3: about I fully support this. The President had a couple
Speaker 3: options here. Iran was illegally blocking the you know, transit
Speaker 3: passage of merchant ships to the Straits orb who was
Speaker 3: trying to charge a toll you know, in contravention of
Speaker 3: international law. He had two options, and one he could
Speaker 3: go back to the kinnetic attacks he was doing before
Speaker 3: the ceasefire, knock their you know, missiles, drones and such back,
Speaker 3: and then under you know, under threat of US military attack,
Speaker 3: escort threw merchant ships. The merchant ships weren't thrilled with
Speaker 3: this because there's still risk to them, you know, it's
Speaker 3: a very high risk in terms of the cost of their.
Speaker 2: Of their cargo. So that was one option.
Speaker 3: He chose the second option, which is, look, if you're
Speaker 3: going to block everyone else who doesn't pay you a toll,
Speaker 3: whose country of origin you don't like, I'm going to
Speaker 3: block you, and I'm going to stop detain sees and
Speaker 3: divert to friendly ports. Ships you know that have that
Speaker 3: have that have ported in Iranian ports and are now
Speaker 3: coming out of the streets trying to deliver you know,
Speaker 3: mostly fossil fuels.
Speaker 2: And so I think this is the right thing to do.
Speaker 2: It is a it is the.
Speaker 3: Much less risky to our force, much more direct you know,
Speaker 3: uh mission application of Iran knock this off.
Speaker 1: So I add noll how many ships I've seen reports
Speaker 1: that we have fifteen ships on the station. I'm sure
Speaker 1: other ones are going there, and the hw Bush is
Speaker 1: coming around the long way. They're not going through the
Speaker 1: Red Sea to get there. How many ships do you
Speaker 1: need to effectively blockade? Both the Arabian Golf and the
Speaker 1: Golf are going on Iranian ports.
Speaker 3: So I think what you do is you're selected. The
Speaker 3: answer is, you know variable, because you can select, do
Speaker 3: I try to stop every possible ship that's going to
Speaker 3: take a good number, you know, fifteen plus ships just
Speaker 3: I think for the Iranian side of it, the Gulf,
Speaker 3: the Arabian Golf, Sigh and Gulf of Amn side of it.
Speaker 3: But you know, if you seize enough of these, detain
Speaker 3: and seize them, work gets around the shadow fleet. The
Speaker 3: shadow fleet ships that hey, this is a bad business
Speaker 3: deal for us. The owners of those ships, the merchant,
Speaker 3: the captains of those ships, they may be criminals, but
Speaker 3: they're not stupid, right like they do not want to
Speaker 3: have their vessel seas.
Speaker 2: And by the way, once their vessel seas they're in
Speaker 2: the world have hurt. The chance that they.
Speaker 3: Haven't done other violations, that the chance that once they
Speaker 3: were criminals, they kept adhering to International Maritime Organization rules
Speaker 3: for safety are pretty low. My gut reaction is those
Speaker 3: ships will be you know, fined and held for a
Speaker 3: long period of time. But the bottom line is deterrents
Speaker 3: will kick in. And so the question how many you need,
Speaker 3: you need a bunch up front, and I think fifteen
Speaker 3: is a pretty good number to start with.
Speaker 1: Now, I read that we had in the chase of
Speaker 1: the Venezuelan tankers, two destroyers and an e SB exhibition
Speaker 1: I C base, overtake and board in seas of Venezuela
Speaker 1: and hot tanker. Is that what we have in mind here?
Speaker 1: ESPs and destroyers.
Speaker 3: I think the boarding teams can be deployed from ESVs
Speaker 3: that can be deployed from destroyers. I think we'll get
Speaker 3: efficient at that so that they can be deployed from
Speaker 3: a lot of different assets and then you only need
Speaker 3: one asset. That was also a political chase where we
Speaker 3: were deciding what to do because the Russians the thing
Speaker 3: kept switching its flag of origin.
Speaker 2: Once you leave in Iranian port, you've tripped the wire
Speaker 2: on this.
Speaker 3: You can't change your flag of origin and hope that
Speaker 3: it's going to make a significant change in the pace
Speaker 3: with which we board you. So My take is that
Speaker 3: this will not be one of these extended you know,
Speaker 3: trans atlantic all the way from Venezuela to the coast
Speaker 3: of the ukata Iceland Gap. It won't be one of those.
Speaker 3: It these will be much quicker, much more, you know,
Speaker 3: much more aggressive in our boarding. The boarding teams are
Speaker 3: limited too, although we do, you know, have a great
Speaker 3: number of special forces trained in this.
Speaker 2: You want to just get them.
Speaker 3: Up to speed on the latest steps of doing, you know,
Speaker 3: making sure you get everybody current, and then you can
Speaker 3: have multiple teams ready to go. You don't have to
Speaker 3: have just one or two teams doing all these boardings.
Speaker 1: I had Admiral mcgraven on at the end of last year.
Speaker 1: He was talking about a new book, but he also
Speaker 1: referenced in that book that he was doing this in
Speaker 1: the Indian Ocean, repelling down onto tankers prior to the
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one war with Saddam because we had a
Speaker 1: UN resolution that authorized it. We don't have a UN
Speaker 1: resolution authorizing this. Do you think we are comporting with
Speaker 1: the law of the sea when we board tankers like this?
Speaker 3: I do if we feel Look, I'm pretty sure I'm
Speaker 3: not a maritime law expert I do not believe there's
Speaker 3: like a rico, you know, a clause in maritime law.
Speaker 3: But that's what's really happening here. Aroan is breaking international
Speaker 3: law by by preferentially giving transit passage to ships that
Speaker 3: either are Iranian or pay tolls to Iran. All illegal
Speaker 3: in my mind, these ships are participating in that conspiracy
Speaker 3: and benefiting from it. I think at a minimum that
Speaker 3: gives us the opportunity to board it. Whether whether we
Speaker 3: can seize them under that is going to be different.
Speaker 3: But they definitely have been participating in an illegal activity
Speaker 3: soborn by the Iranian the IRGC. So we'll have to
Speaker 3: watch what, you know, we'll have to watch on this
Speaker 3: how far we can take this.
Speaker 2: Some ships will be violating other sanctions that exist.
Speaker 3: About Iran's oil, and other ones will be violated, you know,
Speaker 3: some are you know, there are law, there are sanctions
Speaker 3: against Iran already in existence before this. So if we're
Speaker 3: just simply enforcing that, then in that case, you know,
Speaker 3: we'll be completely within international and I'll probably be able
Speaker 3: to seize and you know, seize the content the cargo
Speaker 3: as well.
Speaker 2: So I think I'm okay on that.
Speaker 1: What is the risk to our boarding. You know, I'm
Speaker 1: thinking right now Jack Aubrey and Patrick O'Brien novels, and
Speaker 1: now it's a prize cruise and there's always a boarding
Speaker 1: party and a lot of people all got knocked over
Speaker 1: the head. But then the prize crews would sail the
Speaker 1: prize away. What happened to our special operators when they
Speaker 1: come down? What's their level of risk?
Speaker 2: So there's different levels of visit boarding.
Speaker 3: So Adam McCrae been talking about the highest level when
Speaker 3: it's done by special operators like himself or much younger
Speaker 3: versions of him. Now we also do this with other
Speaker 3: people like I did VBSS boardings. I mean we did
Speaker 3: it with traditional Navy officers as well, and Navy enlisted
Speaker 3: to personnel, and with Coast Guard enlisted personnel and officers
Speaker 3: on board the ships. So there's all kinds of different
Speaker 3: levels of visit boarding these kind of teams. I suspect
Speaker 3: that we start with the high level, the Admiral McCabe
Speaker 3: and Sealed Team special operator focused level, and then we
Speaker 3: see what the hell the threat emerges on these when
Speaker 3: they drop down. I don't worry too much about like
Speaker 3: crew gets mutantus because a crew. Getting mutants against five
Speaker 3: or six admal mcgraveans is not going to go well
Speaker 3: for the.
Speaker 2: Crew and wor to goot around.
Speaker 3: Don't do that, then you put you bring on actual
Speaker 3: mariners who begin who direct the ship's crew in the
Speaker 3: operation of the ship to bring it into the port
Speaker 3: where you're going to detain them.
Speaker 1: Okay, now that that raises a very arcane thing. Where
Speaker 1: do we go with the crew? I mean, what do
Speaker 1: we do with the hot oil in the ship?
Speaker 3: Well, we're gonna have to find a completely a a
Speaker 3: participating port, you know, a country who's willing to support
Speaker 3: us on this and take these ships.
Speaker 2: That if it were inside the Arabian golf, that's pretty easy.
Speaker 3: I could name any of a number of Arab states
Speaker 3: that are happy to hold these for us. Outside the
Speaker 3: Arabian Golf, it gets a little more complicated whether Oman
Speaker 3: will take them obviously, you know, you can think about Yemen,
Speaker 3: Pakistan and India.
Speaker 2: They're probably not going to take.
Speaker 3: Them, and so you have to start, you know, working
Speaker 3: your way around and finding someone who is who is.
Speaker 1: In charge of the specifics of an embargo. Admiral you've
Speaker 1: been in and out of depending on forever who's working
Speaker 1: this plan, because this is the first time we've done
Speaker 1: this since Cuba.
Speaker 2: I think, well, we've done sanctioned enforcement though, I mean
Speaker 2: just off of Venezuela, we did it. We've done it
Speaker 2: against Iran, we've better. I don't believe we've done it
Speaker 2: against Russia explicitly, although we've been authorized to. We've just
Speaker 2: chosen not to.
Speaker 3: And we've done it in the past against Iran and
Speaker 3: North Korea over years, so we know how to do it.
Speaker 2: It is.
Speaker 3: You're right, though it is an interagency process between the
Speaker 3: State Department and the Department of Defense. It's informed by
Speaker 3: the intelligence community, so there's a lot of you know,
Speaker 3: this has got to be done properly, but you know,
Speaker 3: the planning for it is coming out of US Central Command.
Speaker 3: The are been authorized as line of effort and they're
Speaker 3: coming to the plan, but it definitely needs State Department support.
Speaker 3: They're the ones who go contact countries, I think, and say,
Speaker 3: can we bring you these ships, which you're not going
Speaker 3: to appreciate getting unless you already have significant beef with
Speaker 3: the rod in which case you won't care.
Speaker 1: And the cargo on them are they sees for the
Speaker 1: benefit of the international community. Who have been hurt by Iran,
Speaker 1: So that.
Speaker 3: Depends on whether they're in violation of an existing sanctions
Speaker 3: norm you know, some of these will be so some
Speaker 3: of these will be treated differently than others.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll be right back with Admiral Montgomery after
Speaker 1: the break. During the break, I'm going to talk to
Speaker 1: him about any conditions under which we might actually sink
Speaker 1: as chef. That'll be over at my YouTube page. Don't
Speaker 1: go anywhere, stay on the sale on news channel. I'm
Speaker 1: back with Admiral Montgomery between network broadcasts. Admiral, are there
Speaker 1: any conditions under which you can imagine we would have
Speaker 1: to sink a ship leaving Iran?
Speaker 2: Ship is remains non compliant and it's in our efforts
Speaker 2: to board it, you know, keeps its speed up.
Speaker 3: You know, first of all, we can board by helicopters.
Speaker 3: At that point, we may also do some disabling fire.
Speaker 3: I don't think we're gonna like doing that, because you know,
Speaker 3: I'm not saying this is the pottery barn rules of
Speaker 3: general power, where you break it, you own it. But
Speaker 3: if you break it and then you want to take
Speaker 3: it someplace, now you've got to toe it.
Speaker 2: So we'll be trying our hardest not to do damage.
Speaker 3: The ship as we it's engineering plan, as we board
Speaker 3: it and and get it out.
Speaker 2: Now, having said that, if we drop guys.
Speaker 3: On and there is uh, you know, some kind of
Speaker 3: kinetic response by the Iranians, you know, we'll fight it
Speaker 3: and then drop back and if necessary, you know, take
Speaker 3: further action against the ship that could result in the sinking.
Speaker 2: I doubt it. I think I think the Seals would
Speaker 2: win most of those you know meetings.
Speaker 1: Would we would we give notice to a crew to
Speaker 1: abandoned ship of are we disabled or sunk it? Because
Speaker 1: it's an oil tanker, I assume it can explode at
Speaker 1: some point, Yes.
Speaker 2: We would give we give the crew fair warning. Look, first,
Speaker 2: we're just trying to get them to lay two so
Speaker 2: we can board them. If they failed to allow us
Speaker 2: to do that, we might be disabling fire if necessary. Again,
Speaker 2: we're going to try to prevent that.
Speaker 3: We're gonna but if we ever get to the point
Speaker 3: where we're going to sink it, we would give fair warning,
Speaker 3: I think, because my presumption is that some of the
Speaker 3: like the boat engineers and stuff are non combatants. In
Speaker 3: that case, they're just you know, unfortunate criminals along for
Speaker 3: the ride, and you know, we want to give them
Speaker 3: an opportunity to get off. I don't think we'd give
Speaker 3: them a lot of time though.
Speaker 1: Now it's a speculative, Admiral. Are the American Naval officers
Speaker 1: and crews involved in this? Are they excited to be
Speaker 1: doing this? Is this something that they live for? You know?
Speaker 3: I did a VBSS boarding of a ship where they
Speaker 3: sequentially shoveled sheep crap down on all of us as
Speaker 3: we climbed up the ladder wells to it that I
Speaker 3: did not look forward to the next few boardings.
Speaker 2: But in general, this is about doing the mission.
Speaker 3: I think, I think seal you know, our special operators
Speaker 3: have a operator. They get into an operational mindset and
Speaker 3: I'm not sure happy is the right word, but driven
Speaker 3: and fixated and focused and mission accomplished. So I'm not
Speaker 3: you know, the Seals will be fine. The Navy people
Speaker 3: supporting them, let's visit, boarding surgencies will be fine. I
Speaker 3: these these will not be considered unimportant missions by by
Speaker 3: naval crews.
Speaker 1: And one minute too we go back. Is the Navy
Speaker 1: under stress right now? Given the number of ships we
Speaker 1: have and how many are deployed.
Speaker 3: So it's becoming under stress. And you know this, this
Speaker 3: is a law. You know this is an extended a pointment.
Speaker 3: We were under stressed after October seventh when we served
Speaker 3: ships to the Middle East. That's maintained through the Venezuela
Speaker 3: operations and now the increase for this. So what I
Speaker 3: would tell you is it's you have to look across
Speaker 3: a two to three year spectrum and say, too many
Speaker 3: ships have been underway, missing maintenance availabilities, getting backed up
Speaker 3: for training assessments, crews deployed excess amount of times. Yes,
Speaker 3: we are under stressed. Air Force fighter squadrons under stressed,
Speaker 3: and RB air defenders are under stressed. Those are three
Speaker 3: vital assets that have been pushed hard in the Middle East. So, yes,
Speaker 3: there's stress.
Speaker 1: But we're coming right back with the Admiral standby, be
Speaker 1: right back. Welcome back in America. I'm gonna do it
Speaker 1: with a senior fellow for the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy.
Speaker 1: We're Admiral Mark Montgomery, retired in the United States Navy.
Speaker 1: I remember we have watched a six week war unfold,
Speaker 1: its head turns and twists, the blow up in Islamabad.
Speaker 1: Now the embargo how do you assess how it's going overall?
Speaker 2: Well, look, if our you know, if our strategic goal
Speaker 2: was regime change, where we have not, we're not on
Speaker 2: track to achieve it.
Speaker 3: If our strategic goal is change how the regime acts
Speaker 3: towards its partners, towards Israel, towards the United States, we're
Speaker 3: on the sp we're moving that, and we've applied a
Speaker 3: lot of combat power that makes it. You know, as
Speaker 3: Brad Admiral Cooper and Denial Kine have laid out, we
Speaker 3: have really eliminated a significant amount of their of Iran's
Speaker 3: cost and position capabilities and their production facilities to reconstitute them.
Speaker 3: So there, I would tell you we've made a lot
Speaker 3: of progress on that, but obviously we haven't achieved, you know,
Speaker 3: a complete change in how the regime acts, as evidence
Speaker 3: by them walking away from Vice.
Speaker 2: President advance in Asamabad.
Speaker 3: I think the embargo will be another pressure element applied
Speaker 3: to them. This is going to hurt them economically significantly,
Speaker 3: and we'll see if it brings them back to the
Speaker 3: table so they do change the regime's behavior.
Speaker 1: No, No, I count this as a strategic win. I'd
Speaker 1: like your opinion on it. This is Secretary of Rubio
Speaker 1: speaking bluntly about the regime in Iran, cut number six.
Speaker 4: These people are lunatics, They are insane. They are religious
Speaker 4: zelots who can never be allowed to possess a nuclear
Speaker 4: weapon because they have an apocalyptic vision of the future.
Speaker 4: And all of their neighbors know that, by the way,
Speaker 4: which is why.
Speaker 1: All of their nual I think that's the kind of
Speaker 1: clarity America needed about the Islamic Republic, and I count
Speaker 1: that as a win. Do you, I do.
Speaker 3: I think it'd even better if we played clips from
Speaker 3: the Supreme previous Supreme leaders comments about what they would
Speaker 3: do to Israel when they got a bomb, what they
Speaker 3: would do in the United States when they got a
Speaker 3: bomb and a long range ICBM. There's no doubt that
Speaker 3: they had apocryphal intentions towards Israel and eventually towards the
Speaker 3: US States. We're holding we're holding them accountable for what
Speaker 3: they said they would do when they got those weapons,
Speaker 3: and preventing them from getting the precursors those weapons, whether
Speaker 3: they be in ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, is absolutely appropriate.
Speaker 1: Last question, Adam, I give you a couple of minutes
Speaker 1: to open this up on for people to be educated.
Speaker 1: We've invested a lot of our navy's resources and our
Speaker 1: military's capital in the Middle East for thirty months since
Speaker 1: ten to seven, and rightly, so, where have we thinned
Speaker 1: it out in response? Because we don't have a lot
Speaker 1: of strategic reserve built into our military.
Speaker 3: You're absolutely right, Hugh, is that when there's a we
Speaker 3: have you know, two hundred and eighty to three hundred
Speaker 3: ships at any one time and commission, about a third
Speaker 3: of them can be underway and about you know, seventy
Speaker 3: to eighty could be like deployed. So when you have
Speaker 3: a significant amount deployed like this on this mission, it
Speaker 3: means that you're not doing something someplace else.
Speaker 2: I think it's the Western Pacific is the big loser
Speaker 2: on this. And you know a number of ships that
Speaker 2: are operating, you know, from the Koream Peninsula down to Singapore,
Speaker 2: you know, down to Australia is low because we push
Speaker 2: those ships forward either and we haven't had ships stop there.
Speaker 2: They've gone from San Diego all the way straight to
Speaker 2: the Arabian Gulf.
Speaker 3: We've got to prevent that. Right, we are losing some
Speaker 3: deterrent impact on China. But what I'm really worried about
Speaker 3: is two to three years from now, there's going to
Speaker 3: be a readiness deficit, both in the Navy ships, the
Speaker 3: Air Force fighter squadrons that we have at Basis, and
Speaker 3: Army air defenders. All three of those assets are burning
Speaker 3: readiness right now. In the Middle East.
Speaker 2: It's important they're burning readiness because we're accomplishing a national
Speaker 2: security a mission tasked by the President. But when that's over,
Speaker 2: you need to understand that our ability to do other
Speaker 2: missions is impacted.
Speaker 1: I don't understand that, Admiral, what do you mean we're
Speaker 1: burning readiness?
Speaker 2: That means what happens is when ships do these kind
Speaker 2: of missions, and you served ships in to do we
Speaker 2: wouldn't normally have fifteen destroyers in the Middle East. We'd
Speaker 2: have them doing training, doing maintenance, doing other things.
Speaker 3: What happens is they all come back and they try
Speaker 3: to pile into maintenance activities together and they get extended out.
Speaker 3: Over two or three years. They tried to pile into
Speaker 3: training activities to get it and expanded out. So when
Speaker 3: you look forward, like twenty four or thirty six or
Speaker 3: forty eight months from now, there's a lot less ships underway. Famously,
Speaker 3: we did this in twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen in
Speaker 3: the Middle East, where we had two carrier strike groups
Speaker 3: on deployment for eighteen months straight. The reflection came four
Speaker 3: years later, twenty seventeen President Trump and his first year
Speaker 3: as president, he had no carriers deploy So that was
Speaker 3: the readiness had been burned four years earlier, and ships
Speaker 3: were not effectively ready to go, you know, four years.
Speaker 3: Hence now carriers tend to show themselves much later.
Speaker 2: The destroyers will be earlier two to three year years
Speaker 2: from now.
Speaker 3: There'll be lesser stories available for underway operations because of
Speaker 3: the excess deployment time they're doing right now and did
Speaker 3: six months ago and twelve months ago.
Speaker 1: Okay, last question, Admiral, our allies in the Pacific, Philippines,
Speaker 1: Australia and Singapore, Taiwan, Japan. Are they viewing this as
Speaker 1: a net plus because Iran might flip from being with
Speaker 1: the alliance of tyrants to being at least neutral, maybe
Speaker 1: on our side, or are they viewing it as a
Speaker 1: positive negative in other words, a disaster for readiness in
Speaker 1: the Pacific.
Speaker 3: Look, they understand both of those impacts, and I'll tell
Speaker 3: you they take a third one, which is they like
Speaker 3: to see the United States standing up to an authoritarian
Speaker 3: regime right alongside a model ally Israel. You know who's
Speaker 3: another model, ally Japan as they increase their defense spending.
Speaker 3: You know who's another model, ally Korea as they increase
Speaker 3: their defense spending, another model ally Taiwan. Those three countries
Speaker 3: see this and see the United States taking action alongside
Speaker 3: in this case a non treaty ally Israel, and they
Speaker 3: appreciate it.
Speaker 2: And non treaty.
Speaker 3: Allies in the former Saudi Arabia ue Qatar, they appreciate that.
Speaker 3: And by the way, the Taiwanese particularly have to look
Speaker 3: at this counter block and bargo issue, go, hey, that's
Speaker 3: a pretty good trick. China tries to blockade ships from
Speaker 3: coming to visit US in the United States goes down
Speaker 3: the streets of block and says, nothing goes to China.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a pretty good lesson.
Speaker 3: For the Chinese that they're not going to have their
Speaker 3: way with a blockade or embargo against Iiwan without a
Speaker 3: counter punch from the United States.
Speaker 2: So in all those ways, you they're happy.
Speaker 1: Padn't thought about that, but that's why we talked to you.
Speaker 1: Admiral Mark Montgomery, Rare Admiral Mark Montgomery, retiring United States
Speaker 1: Navy Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy,
Speaker 1: following him on acts at Mark C. Montgomery. If he
Speaker 1: only caught the last part of that, I'll post it
Speaker 1: over at my YouTube channel as well. Thank you, Adam.
Speaker 1: I'll get some sleep wherever you are far flying across
Speaker 1: the world. We never find them in the same place. Twice.
Speaker 1: Welcome back, America. If you don't recognize that music, it's
Speaker 1: because you're under sixty. That's the same sound from Let's
Speaker 1: Make a Deal, which marked Michael Orran, doctor Michael Orran,
Speaker 1: ambassador from is to the United States for many many decades.
Speaker 1: He used that analogy today with a Viva Klompass in
Speaker 1: her wonderful podcast Boundless Insights and dtr Orran. I normally
Speaker 1: just take everything you say and believe it. But I
Speaker 1: think you're depressed. I think you need some sleep. This
Speaker 1: was a big win for America and Israel. They're bleeding
Speaker 1: out over there in the regime of the fanatics. Why
Speaker 1: are you so depressed?
Speaker 5: Well, and you go back to what I said about
Speaker 5: the number one and door number two. All right, Monty Hall,
Speaker 5: forgive me. Behind door number one is Iran wins the war.
Speaker 5: Ron wins the war even though it lost its navy
Speaker 5: and lost its many many factories and so many institutions
Speaker 5: and its leadership. But the fact of that is that
Speaker 5: the United States and Israel did not achieve any of
Speaker 5: our strategical goal as yet of eliminating Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Speaker 5: Certainly that Arsenal stockpile of high in the enrich geranium
Speaker 5: remains there. The ballistic system, probably fifty percent of their
Speaker 5: rockets are still usable with rockets and that can be launchers,
Speaker 5: which is a serious threat to Israel in the Middle East.
Speaker 6: Iran can still support terror and the straits of her moves.
Speaker 5: It was not in control of the rounds, not in
Speaker 5: stroll of the straights of the moves before the war.
Speaker 6: Now it is okay. So that's behind door number one.
Speaker 5: Behind door number two is that Iran lost the war
Speaker 5: and America and Israel are the great winners of the war.
Speaker 5: Because yes, none of these strategic objectives have been a change.
Speaker 5: But Iran is economically broke its own people hate the regime.
Speaker 5: Eighty five percent of the people hate the regime. Irani
Speaker 5: regime has no friends in the Middle East at all.
Speaker 5: It's surrounded now by enemies. It has lost and estimated
Speaker 5: three hundred billion dollars in assets, and damage has suffered,
Speaker 5: and it's not coming back.
Speaker 6: It's not coming back.
Speaker 5: And the ring of fire that terrorist groups that Iran
Speaker 5: once had against Israel has been greatly, greatly depleted. And
Speaker 5: it's just a matter of time before this regime fall.
Speaker 5: So you know more Number two, Umber one, door number two.
Speaker 5: Clearly the truth lies somewhere in between. And this naval
Speaker 5: blockade which the President is now levied today on Iran
Speaker 5: could design between door number one and door number two.
Speaker 5: And here I have a feel, but you know, I
Speaker 5: don't know if you saw the fox off ed I
Speaker 5: had about two weeks ago where I called for a
Speaker 5: naval blockade, that this is the ultimate end for this war,
Speaker 5: that the goal of that the model of the war
Speaker 5: is not a rock in Afghanistan but the Cold War.
Speaker 5: And you have an initial military stage which is followed
Speaker 5: by a strong economic stranghold on Iran to bring the
Speaker 5: regime down. And I hope that this will be the balance,
Speaker 5: this will make the decision between door number one and
Speaker 5: door number two.
Speaker 1: All right, let me add a couple of dimensions for
Speaker 1: you two the strategic goals obtained as a broadcaster and
Speaker 1: an analyst in the United States. I want to play
Speaker 1: for you Marko bo enunciating what I consider to be
Speaker 1: a strategic win, which is clarity in the United States.
Speaker 1: Cut numbers six, Secretary of State Rubio.
Speaker 4: These people are lunatics, They are insane. They are religious
Speaker 4: zelots who can never be allowed to possess a nuclear
Speaker 4: weapon because they have an apocalyptic vision of the future.
Speaker 2: And all of their.
Speaker 4: Neighbors know that, by the way, which is why all
Speaker 4: of their neighbors have been supportive of the efforts work.
Speaker 1: Sir Ambassador or I think it is a strategic breakthrough
Speaker 1: that the jcpoa Obama, Podbros. And everybody on the left
Speaker 1: are now confronted with the fact that Yosemite Sam lives
Speaker 1: in Tehranney fires at everyone whenever he's mad. I mean,
Speaker 1: we can't hide. But they're not rational people. They'll never
Speaker 1: be rational people.
Speaker 5: Well that we would assume in Israel debt that that
Speaker 5: would be self evident, that you know, the difference between
Speaker 5: North Korea and Iranas and North Korea gets nuclear weapons
Speaker 5: because it wants food. Iran wants to gole weapons because
Speaker 5: it wants to dominate the Middle East and ultimately the world,
Speaker 5: and his lie systematically about its nuclear program. I was
Speaker 5: actually in the room in Washington, in the in the
Speaker 5: White House when Fordah was revealed, when the kum the
Speaker 5: underground facility was discovered, and oh wow, gee, they have
Speaker 5: this underground facility just to make peaceful nuclear power with
Speaker 5: the one hundred thousand centrifuges.
Speaker 6: So they lie about it all, and of course this
Speaker 6: is what they want to do.
Speaker 5: It if they had had that nuclear weapon, they would
Speaker 5: be sitting now on this dride the Straits of Humus
Speaker 5: with the nuclear weapon and in the United States would
Speaker 5: not be able to levy that naval blockade.
Speaker 6: If you were to ask, I think I probably said
Speaker 6: this on the program before. If you would ask Bill Clinton.
Speaker 5: Whether he could go back, you know, thirty forty years
Speaker 5: and prevent North Korea from getting a nuclear weapon by
Speaker 5: use of military means, would he say yes?
Speaker 6: Of course he'd say yes.
Speaker 5: And what the administration is doing now with this naval
Speaker 5: blockade is not just assuring the security of Americans now,
Speaker 5: but assuring the security of the children grandchildren of America's today.
Speaker 1: And I think that gets into the groundwater of American
Speaker 1: public opinion. I think the Democrats have gone off the
Speaker 1: left edge and they're going to have to bring themselves back.
Speaker 1: I'lla Clinton in nineteen ninety two before anyone takes them seriously.
Speaker 1: Let's talk next about Lebanon. You were worried with Lady's
Speaker 1: accompass about Lebanon, and I really do understand it's a
Speaker 1: neglistential threat. I really do understand you're beating the crap
Speaker 1: out of him. And when you said the President leaned
Speaker 1: on you a little bit, that might have been a
Speaker 1: little public consumption stuff. I don't think we're asking you
Speaker 1: to stop, are we, because you can't.
Speaker 6: No, No, it wasn't stopping.
Speaker 5: I think the President asked them to scale it down.
Speaker 5: So what we did was to stop bombing Beirut.
Speaker 6: And we're focusing our.
Speaker 5: Aerial activity and our grand activity on southern Lebanon the time.
Speaker 6: B but still it's not going to get the head
Speaker 6: of the snake.
Speaker 5: And eventually, if we're going to stop his Bola to
Speaker 5: degree that we can stop is Bola short of some
Speaker 5: type of international intervention or preferably the drying up of
Speaker 5: the of the funds from Iran. That's what would kill
Speaker 5: his bula. We're going to have to keep on striking it,
Speaker 5: his bulla wherever it is. But we're up against a
Speaker 5: and I cannot stress this enough, Hugh. We're up against
Speaker 5: a narrative that has taken hold of the mainstream media
Speaker 5: in the United States, which is that, you know, Israel's
Speaker 5: wake up in the morning, we think nothing else but
Speaker 5: to go out and kill a bunch of innocent Lebanese
Speaker 5: without provocation. So you had a front page story in
Speaker 5: the New York Times what two or three year days
Speaker 5: ago that was a huge story, went on for like
Speaker 5: five ten pages about all the suffering that we have
Speaker 5: inflicted on the Lebanes without mentioning.
Speaker 6: One, not one rocket fired it at Northern Israel.
Speaker 5: Hugh. His bulla has fired six thousand rockets at Northern Israel.
Speaker 6: It fired at the other day at Southard Israel.
Speaker 1: I made another note when I'm stopping every minute I'm
Speaker 1: out there trundling on my run in the morning, listening
Speaker 1: to you and Aviva, and I stopped and tell Michael,
Speaker 1: nobody reads the New York Times anymore. They do the
Speaker 1: crossword puzzles, they play wordle and they listen to the recipe.
Speaker 1: Jonathan Swine and Maggie Haberman have a good piece. They
Speaker 1: have a few good reporters, but nobody take their cues
Speaker 1: from it. And what did you make of the President
Speaker 1: denouncing the Nutter fringe of the Republican Party? Finally, the
Speaker 1: people who hated Israel?
Speaker 6: He probably that's why I candid them. That's great, that's great,
Speaker 6: But listen, it's not just the New York Times. That's
Speaker 6: the thing.
Speaker 5: You know, even out of the Wall Street Journal. We
Speaker 5: tend to depend more on the Wall Street Journal. I
Speaker 5: had a headline two days ago Israeli's kill eleven Lebanese.
Speaker 3: Who were they?
Speaker 6: Eleven Lebanese? They were just Bulla people.
Speaker 5: A major aerial operation against against against Beirut the other day,
Speaker 5: and they the reporters said that three hundred elevenies were killed.
Speaker 5: Of the three hundred elevenies, because how many were his Bullah?
Speaker 5: In one building? We killed one hundred his ball of
Speaker 5: terrorists in one building. We have killed one thousand, four
Speaker 5: hundred his Bulla terrorists since this war began. You de
Speaker 5: duck that from those casualty levels there, and you're going
Speaker 5: to get something like a one to one civilian to
Speaker 5: combatant casualty ratio, which is which is a world record,
Speaker 5: But you won't hear that anywhere anywhere in the mainstream
Speaker 5: President United States. So is a systematic delegitimization of this
Speaker 5: country and the denial of our right to defender cells.
Speaker 1: And I'll be right back with Michael Lauren because I've
Speaker 1: got I'm mister happy Talk today because I'm so glad
Speaker 1: that jd Vance slapped them and left that I'm enormously
Speaker 1: relieved that we didn't do a deal and instead we've
Speaker 1: got an embargo. But I'll bring doctor Oran back during
Speaker 1: the break. We'll play on the podcast, and you'll be
Speaker 1: back after the break as well. I'm back with Michael
Speaker 1: Oran during the break. Michael, there is this trend line
Speaker 1: that shows younger Americans influenced by TikTok and other influencers
Speaker 1: don't support Israel the way that older Americans like my
Speaker 1: generation does. I also believe that that's going to change
Speaker 1: because the trajectories of the countries are so dramatically different.
Speaker 1: Israel emerges from this war a technological superpower, the only
Speaker 1: reliable ally we have who can interoperate with us in
Speaker 1: a way that has not been sent since World War
Speaker 1: Two and probably not even then. And they're reliable and
Speaker 1: they talk to us versus the I mean marginal people
Speaker 1: on either end of the spectrum who don't like Jews
Speaker 1: and they're poor, sick people. I just think, to Iran
Speaker 1: is broken? Am I too happy?
Speaker 5: Hold on, listen, We thought we had defeated his Bola
Speaker 5: very very decisively during the last round of fighting.
Speaker 6: And it turned out we didn't look how quickly they
Speaker 6: came back.
Speaker 5: So my fear is, and I'll put my finger on
Speaker 5: it that, Yeah, the Rudions will do, will make, you know,
Speaker 5: reopen the straits of humors. They may give up the
Speaker 5: nuclear arsenal, the stockpile, they may you know, freeze enrichment indefinitely,
Speaker 5: but the quid pro quoe could be sanctioned relief. And
Speaker 5: to me, and I think too of the Israelis, that
Speaker 5: is the key to it all that the minute they
Speaker 5: get their hands on money, they will rebuild.
Speaker 6: And that's going to be crucial. I haven't seen the
Speaker 6: president talk about, you know what he's willing to pay
Speaker 6: for any of this. He set down the red lines.
Speaker 6: We like the red lines very much.
Speaker 5: And by the way, the IDF is on high alert
Speaker 5: tonight for the possibility of renewed fighting.
Speaker 6: We all are we just you know, we have.
Speaker 5: Our national it's Holocaust Memorial Day to day, and then
Speaker 5: we have our Independence Day coming up, and our National
Speaker 5: Memorial Day for the Army coming up. And most of
Speaker 5: the ceremonies have now been canceled for the fear that
Speaker 5: Iran actually may launch a preemptive strike against us. And
Speaker 5: we'd have, you know, thousands of thousand people out of
Speaker 5: some ceremony. We'd like that, But I think the concern
Speaker 5: here is that the sanctions would be lifted and Iran
Speaker 5: would then use that money to rebuild.
Speaker 1: So you wrote a book Israel at one hundred, probably
Speaker 1: four years ago, before ten to seven, and you were
Speaker 1: mister optimists, with the exception of the Haredi issue and
Speaker 1: a couple of other issues, including the Palestinian popular I
Speaker 1: am very much more an optimist for Israel now because regime,
Speaker 1: it's my understanding, you're the historian. My understanding, no Arab regime,
Speaker 1: no Middle Easian regime, suffers a loss of faith, there's
Speaker 1: significant and survives. Am I right about that?
Speaker 5: Depends on you to define regime. But Arab leaders have
Speaker 5: suffered tremendous loss of faith. You know, Gamal Apto Nasser survived.
Speaker 5: He died of a heart attack after the in nineteen
Speaker 5: seventy fifter Six Day War.
Speaker 6: But you can survive.
Speaker 5: Certainly, the Asads kept on losing in Syria, but you
Speaker 5: know they survived because they have their the ability to
Speaker 5: oppress their population. You know, it could be the eighty
Speaker 5: five percent of the Iranian population hates the regime, but
Speaker 5: if they're afraid to go out in the street, you know,
Speaker 5: because they're going to get a bullet in their head
Speaker 5: and they would, then that regime can survive and it
Speaker 5: can build again. We're dealing with an enemy here that
Speaker 5: does not think in terms of weeks and months, but
Speaker 5: rather years and decades.
Speaker 6: Look what's happening with Hamas.
Speaker 5: And Gaza Look what happened, which was look what happened
Speaker 5: with Hamas and Gaza U All right.
Speaker 6: Basically they were let off the hook. Yeah, sure, we'll
Speaker 6: we'll disarmed, we'll disarm.
Speaker 5: And now they're telling to the United States to take
Speaker 5: a powder and they're getting stronger and stronger every day,
Speaker 5: and the most recent news shows that they are rebuilding
Speaker 5: their rocket capabilities.
Speaker 1: All right, stand by, we're coming back on the network.
Speaker 1: Doctor Michael Oran is with me. Stay tuned, Welcome back
Speaker 1: in America. Doctor Michael Lauren, former Israeli ambassador United States,
Speaker 1: former deputy minister in a previous Netnahuu government, is still
Speaker 1: with me, Doctor arn Because you were pessimistic this morning
Speaker 1: on the podcast I listened to, I'm going to ask
Speaker 1: you to put on your optimist hat. And I hope
Speaker 1: you and I hope you both we both talk on
Speaker 1: Israel's hundredth birthday, and I have a feeling it will
Speaker 1: be a superpower, the equal of the United States, with
Speaker 1: its own B two bombers and its own strategic capability,
Speaker 1: and no one will screw with them, and that there
Speaker 1: will be oil and gas pipelines that end up in
Speaker 1: Haifa because it's safer than going through the Red Sea.
Speaker 1: I have a different bit. What is your most optimistic
Speaker 1: vision for Israel at its one hundredth birthday in twenty
Speaker 1: forty eight.
Speaker 5: Now I would subscribe to everything you just said, But
Speaker 5: the biggest challenge for this country, you know, far beyond
Speaker 5: Iran ultimately, are the internal challenges.
Speaker 6: Whether we can reunite the unite Israeli society.
Speaker 5: The issue of the ultra Orthodox service in the military,
Speaker 5: their integration and the economy is tearing this country apart,
Speaker 5: and it's got to stop. We had the Chief of
Speaker 5: Staff tell the government last week that unless the ultra
Speaker 5: Ethlex are inducted in the military, the army is going
Speaker 5: to collapse. Can you imagine, you know, the chairman of
Speaker 5: the joined Chief of Staff saying that to the President
Speaker 5: of the United States in the middle of a war.
Speaker 6: So these are major.
Speaker 5: Issues that are not well understood outside of Israel, but
Speaker 5: in Israel, everyone knows that these are the make it
Speaker 5: or break it, make it or break it issue. And
Speaker 5: I just add one other thing about make it or
Speaker 5: break it is that what's going to make it or
Speaker 5: break it in this war, it's a match of wills.
Speaker 5: It's the Iranian will against the American will.
Speaker 7: And we are here.
Speaker 6: We're not going anywhere.
Speaker 5: We've been through a lot in many ways, were tired,
Speaker 5: and some of us are depressed, but we know we
Speaker 5: have no choice and we're going to keep fighting.
Speaker 6: And we just hope that the American people will understand.
Speaker 5: That this is a war not just for their security today,
Speaker 5: but for the churity of their children and grandchildren, and
Speaker 5: that's where that can. You gonna kick that can down
Speaker 5: the ball of the world road. That's where that can
Speaker 5: is going to end up in future generations.
Speaker 1: Okay, good question. You've carried a lot. I hope you've
Speaker 1: carried a lot of the load of doing public diplomacy
Speaker 1: for Israel. I mean, you've been working around the clock.
Speaker 1: I don't know how many interviews you've given in the
Speaker 1: last five weeks, but it's got to be three hundred,
Speaker 1: yeah four. Who does that when you retire? Who has
Speaker 1: got and who actually has credentials. There are a lot
Speaker 1: of people who have talking heads in Israel, just like here,
Speaker 1: but not many of them have sured does Ambassador of
Speaker 1: the United States? Do they have any young people groom
Speaker 1: for that?
Speaker 5: John, No, they don't. But we have some really excellent
Speaker 5: young people are coming up the pipe. I know you've
Speaker 5: had an istery you've had have you've ret the gore
Speaker 5: on your program? Who's excellent.
Speaker 1: If you know.
Speaker 5: Natasha Hausdorf, he's this international lawyer's wonderful for Britain. There
Speaker 5: are some young people who are coming up were terrific,
Speaker 5: really terrific to be in the government room.
Speaker 6: In the government. It means you have to be in governments.
Speaker 5: Having sat in the Parliament for five years, you don't
Speaker 5: necessarily get to do this. You're busy voting on postal reform,
Speaker 5: but I'm working on you often mentioned you're very nice
Speaker 5: to mention. My NGO called the Israel Advocacy Group, and
Speaker 5: one of the things we do with the israe Athecy
Speaker 5: Group is.
Speaker 6: Try to groom young people.
Speaker 5: To a point where they can enable me to retire
Speaker 5: because after this war, who knows we may need it.
Speaker 1: How do you do that? Because there's a funny place
Speaker 1: to end. We do need people to make the arguments
Speaker 1: from Israel in English to Americans about why you are
Speaker 1: our greatest ally and will remain that way. And if
Speaker 1: the Israel Advocacy Group is doing that, Americans of all
Speaker 1: stripes ought to support the Israel Advocacy Group. How do
Speaker 1: you do it? Thank you?
Speaker 6: How do we do it?
Speaker 5: We work, We have some food from generous donors, and
Speaker 5: I have to spend a big chunk of my time
Speaker 5: fundraising and showing and we so, for example, if we've
Speaker 5: done on four hundred interviews in the last six weeks,
Speaker 5: we send this out to our donors. Then they can
Speaker 5: click on any of those interviews and see them. I
Speaker 5: was on Fox Elier tonight. I just finished about four
Speaker 5: interviews tonight alone. And that's an addition to writing. And
Speaker 5: I'm coming out with a book about this war, a
Speaker 5: very detailed book with HarperCollins.
Speaker 6: Well more about that later. And we're just we are
Speaker 6: acting around.
Speaker 5: I had a wonderful staff, and I think above all
Speaker 5: a very dedicated, indefatigable and fearless wife. So a lot
Speaker 5: of we keep in mind that most of the interviews
Speaker 5: with the United States are on your primetime, which is two, three,
Speaker 5: four o'clock in the morning, our time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, very last question, doctor Oran. When you look back
Speaker 1: at ten to six and you look today and here
Speaker 1: we are in April, is Israel better off than it
Speaker 1: was despite the horror that would come on ten to seven?
Speaker 1: Then it was on ten six, twenty three.
Speaker 5: Oh instably and asked toably war. I know this is
Speaker 5: a very controversial thing. I'm going to say the war
Speaker 5: saved us at a horrible price, but it saved us.
Speaker 5: We were privitly content to let his bullet humus, you know,
Speaker 5: build up on our borders, to let Iran get nuclear
Speaker 5: capabilities and to let them build up ballistic capabilities that
Speaker 5: would threaten us in a conventional way.
Speaker 6: We were preventing.
Speaker 5: The ultra arth stocks. Enlistment issue was a radical left
Speaker 5: wing issue, it wasn't a national issue. And so today
Speaker 5: no terrorist organization is going to build up on our
Speaker 5: borders again. We are facing this ultra orthlocks issue and
Speaker 5: we will face Iran and we will address the question
Speaker 5: of you know, the Iran's threat to our national assistance.
Speaker 1: And aimably is the correct answer my view, Doctor Michael Awan.
Speaker 1: Always a pleasure following on action, Dr Michael Law and
Speaker 1: support Israel Advocacy Group because if anyone can room people
Speaker 1: are to talk and communicate its Michael Lauren, Thank you, doctor.
Speaker 1: I'll be right back, Stay tuned. I'm America. I'm h Hughett.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Sale News at Salem Radio Network, our
Speaker 1: wonderful array of affiliates across the United States. We had
Speaker 1: a whka Y talk radio over the weekend in Hickory,
Speaker 1: North Carolina, twelve ninety AM and one or two point
Speaker 1: three FM. Welcome, there are hundreds of you and we're
Speaker 1: glad to have you. Look. Oil is in the front pages.
Speaker 1: Everybody knows that they're paying more for gas. I thought
Speaker 1: I would go to the source, the American Petroleum Institute,
Speaker 1: and ask them about what I thought I knew. But
Speaker 1: I'm a lawyer and I used to do environmental law,
Speaker 1: but I didn't really do energy. And so I'm so
Speaker 1: pleased to welcome Dustin Meyer, Senior vice president of API.
Speaker 1: The American Petroleum Institute is where you go for your
Speaker 1: facts and figures on oil. Dustin, how long have you
Speaker 1: been with API?
Speaker 8: Well almost eight years, but been in the oil business
Speaker 8: my entire career.
Speaker 1: All right, So my big question is when something like
Speaker 1: the Strait of Horror Moves gets shut down, oil goes up.
Speaker 1: I think it's about one hundred and two dollars a
Speaker 1: barrel today. How does that signal other producers of oil
Speaker 1: to bring new production online?
Speaker 8: Yeah, Well, when it comes to a disruption like this,
Speaker 8: there's always two variables, right, There's the scale of it,
Speaker 8: and there's the duration. We've known the scale from the beginning,
Speaker 8: and the straight orforard Moves has always been a critical
Speaker 8: choke point. It's about twenty percent of global oil supply,
Speaker 8: twenty percent of global LNG supply. Major refined products transit
Speaker 8: as well. So we know the scale, but the duration
Speaker 8: has always been the open question. Right now, we're at
Speaker 8: about six weeks. It could go farther. And the reason
Speaker 8: why I mentioned that is because when you start considering
Speaker 8: what the supply response is going to be from other
Speaker 8: producing areas, it really does depend on that duration. You're
Speaker 8: not going to see much of a response if there's
Speaker 8: a conflict or a disruption that only lasts a couple
Speaker 8: weeks or a month and a half. It's really once
Speaker 8: you get into month two, month three, month four that
Speaker 8: that provides a clear enough and persistent enough signal to
Speaker 8: see a meaningful production response, be it from the United
Speaker 8: States or anywhere else around the world.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about the indication that would you would
Speaker 1: be led to believe it's going to be long in
Speaker 1: the have to lead to a supply response. How long
Speaker 1: or what sort of things would make you call up
Speaker 1: your buddies in the API world and say, you know,
Speaker 1: we've got to turn on some wells, or we got
Speaker 1: to uncap some old wells, or we got to drill
Speaker 1: some new wells.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 8: I think realistically it would take several months. You know,
Speaker 8: there's just a lot of uncertainty and volatility in the
Speaker 8: marketplace right now, and for any company that's operating around
Speaker 8: the world, including in the United States, you need clarity,
Speaker 8: You need some predictability to make what are ultimately pretty
Speaker 8: large CAPEX decisions. A lot of the companies you know,
Speaker 8: are very clear about this coming into the year. Coming
Speaker 8: into the year, the market environment was very different, right
Speaker 8: The markets were very well supplied. If anything, people thought
Speaker 8: that market prices were going to fall, and companies set
Speaker 8: their capital expenditures accordingly. Now to be moving in a
Speaker 8: fundamentally different trajectory, well cryer is a pretty significant shift.
Speaker 8: If you're going to do that, you may if you
Speaker 8: know that the duration is going to be persistent, but
Speaker 8: if you think it's going to be short lived, that's
Speaker 8: a lot less likely, and so we need to be
Speaker 8: realistic about what the supply response is.
Speaker 1: Going to be.
Speaker 8: It's always the case that the United States is uniquely
Speaker 8: responsive to changing market conditions. Right Not only are we
Speaker 8: the world's largest oil producer, but we have also been
Speaker 8: the world's largest supplier of new oil over the last
Speaker 8: several years, including if you go back to the Russian
Speaker 8: invasion Ukraine, that was a significant price spike that lasted
Speaker 8: for several months, and you saw US increase their production significantly.
Speaker 8: So the United States is well positioned to do it,
Speaker 8: but it is still a function of the duration of
Speaker 8: the crisis of the disruption.
Speaker 1: Where when we go to get new supply do we
Speaker 1: look in American terms, not to Venezuela getting new equipment,
Speaker 1: new operators, but in the United States, where are the
Speaker 1: wells that come online when the price rises in stays
Speaker 1: sufficiently high that it makes economic sense for the company involved.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so the United States is really blessed to have
Speaker 8: so many diverse producing basins. But what you've seen over
Speaker 8: the last several years is that really the first place
Speaker 8: to respond, the first basin to respond, especially for oil markets,
Speaker 8: is almost always the Permian basin in West Texas and
Speaker 8: going into eastern New Mexico. I mean, it's the most
Speaker 8: important oil field in the world. It's a tremendous resource,
Speaker 8: and developers there can move pretty quickly. And so when
Speaker 8: you rewind back to these various crises points throughout the
Speaker 8: last several years and then you see a US production
Speaker 8: response and look at where it came from, it does
Speaker 8: overwhelmingly often come from the Permian basin. But that's not
Speaker 8: to say that that's the only game in town. Right
Speaker 8: The Bachan formation up in North Dakota is a tremendous resource.
Speaker 8: We have a lot of development going on in the
Speaker 8: Gulf of America that's a little bit longer lead time
Speaker 8: that's not going to be responsive to rapidly changing market
Speaker 8: conditions of the sorts that we've seen over the last
Speaker 8: couple of months. But it is still a huge baseload
Speaker 8: source that we continue to exp and that's one of
Speaker 8: the benefits of the overall US portfolio of producing assets
Speaker 8: is it's not just one basin. There are so many
Speaker 8: different supply zones that we can pull on, both in
Speaker 8: the short term and in the long term.
Speaker 1: Now and again, I'm a lawyer and a landage sky,
Speaker 1: not an economist, But one of the few things I
Speaker 1: remember learning about economics is that the answer to high
Speaker 1: prices is high prices, and people answer high prices by
Speaker 1: producing more of what is in demand. Two ways to
Speaker 1: produce it increase the supply or increase the delivery mechanisms.
Speaker 1: And I've read over the weekend that there are a
Speaker 1: lot of plans to diversified delivery from our friends in
Speaker 1: the Gulf, thee Saudi Arabia, Kuwait via pipelines. What do
Speaker 1: you know about that?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean these are pretty loosely foregmned plans, but
Speaker 8: it makes sense. And this is one of the oldest
Speaker 8: rules in the energy business, right is there is strength
Speaker 8: in diversity of supply. This has always been the case.
Speaker 8: In many ways. This is an unfortunate reminder of how
Speaker 8: important that lesson is. It has long been known that
Speaker 8: the straight of Horror Moves is a critical choke point
Speaker 8: for energy flows. Now having been through this experience, you
Speaker 8: could completely understand if a lot of producers in the
Speaker 8: Golf area are very interested in expanding or developing new
Speaker 8: infrastructure that's designed to circumvent the straight of Horror moves
Speaker 8: and maybe move product from the east to the west
Speaker 8: and have it go out the Red Sea or have
Speaker 8: it go all the way up through the Mediterranean. I
Speaker 8: think that that inevitably, whenever this conflict ends, that is
Speaker 8: going to be one of the takeaways is the importance
Speaker 8: of diversifying supply, not just within the Persian Gulf region itself,
Speaker 8: but even around the world. And again, when you look
Speaker 8: around the world, there's only so many major supply sources
Speaker 8: out there, and the United States really is one of them.
Speaker 8: That's why it's so important to have a policy environment
Speaker 8: in place that ensures that our companies and investors from
Speaker 8: around the world can develop these resources a timely manner
Speaker 8: to reduce the overall dependence on some of these ship
Speaker 8: chokeholds like the straight offormos.
Speaker 1: Now dusin Meier. I assume that American Petroleum Institute not
Speaker 1: only knows where all the oil is and all the gas,
Speaker 1: they also know who builds the pipelines, and they also
Speaker 1: know who builds the infrastructure. Is their capacity within those
Speaker 1: companies to go about a year or two years worth
Speaker 1: of infrastructure expansion.
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 8: Absolutely. I mean the industry is capable of building enormous
Speaker 8: projects very swiftly and can move quite quickly, and so yeah,
Speaker 8: the capabilities are there. It really just becomes a question of,
Speaker 8: you know, is there a long term signal to make
Speaker 8: these sort of investments that ultimately have to last for
Speaker 8: many decades in order to really make sense. I think
Speaker 8: that this has been such a painful chapter for so
Speaker 8: many different regions of the world that that probably sends
Speaker 8: a pretty strong signal, not just in the Gulf area,
Speaker 8: but in the United States. You know, we talk a lot, Hugh,
Speaker 8: about how difficult it is to build projects in the
Speaker 8: United States. We benefit from all of these resources in
Speaker 8: the subsurface, but can we reliably get them from where
Speaker 8: the product is produced to where it's in demand. Historically
Speaker 8: the answer has been yes. But now it's so difficult
Speaker 8: to build interstate natural gas pipeline. Sometimes it can be
Speaker 8: difficult to build LNG export projects. Getting that level of
Speaker 8: permitting certainty is so important for our industry, not just
Speaker 8: here in the United States, but anywhere around the world,
Speaker 8: because that's the sort of investment that the world is
Speaker 8: going to need coming out of this conflict.
Speaker 1: You know, Leader Thoon and Spiger Johnson both been on
Speaker 1: this program talking about permitting reform that will allow us,
Speaker 1: for example, to connect Pittsburgh area natural gas with New
Speaker 1: England that is paying so much. Do you think that
Speaker 1: this shock will shock some legislators into realizing we need
Speaker 1: permitting reform in the United States.
Speaker 8: Well, it's a great question, Hugh. And look, permitting reform
Speaker 8: has been our number one legislative priority already, going all
Speaker 8: the way back to last summer. Right, it is so
Speaker 8: essential that we get this done. And I think that
Speaker 8: the experiences over the last couple of months, among other things,
Speaker 8: it is a reminder of the importance of controlling your
Speaker 8: own energy destiny, and one of the obstacles for us
Speaker 8: doing that. We've made a lot of progress as we've
Speaker 8: shifted from being a major importer of oil and gas
Speaker 8: to being a net energy exporter, the world's largest producer
Speaker 8: of oil, the world's largest producer of natural gas, and
Speaker 8: all of the benefits that come along with that. We've
Speaker 8: made a lot of progress, but the primary remaining obstacle
Speaker 8: is the need to reform our permitting system to the
Speaker 8: environmental review process that has become so disconnected from what
Speaker 8: the original statutory intent was. It just makes it so
Speaker 8: difficult to build anything anywhere. I absolutely think that that
Speaker 8: is one of the lessons from this crisis is you
Speaker 8: have to be able to build things in your own country.
Speaker 8: You have to be able to build it quickly. Everybody
Speaker 8: agrees there should be an environmental review process, nobody questioning that,
Speaker 8: but it should be smart, it should be predictable allow
Speaker 8: those investments to take place.
Speaker 1: Dustin Meyers, Senior vice president of the American Patroleum Institute,
Speaker 1: Thanks for being available on a hurry for me, and
Speaker 1: I look forward to talking to another API spoke first
Speaker 1: and about Nizeweale another alternative later in the week. I
Speaker 1: appreciate your being there. Don't go anywhere, America. I'm Hugh
Speaker 1: Hewitt on the Salem News Channel Salem Radio Network. It's
Speaker 1: a wonderful radio affiliate network. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewett.
Speaker 1: Selena Asita has calmness of the world. She's the President's
Speaker 1: favorite journalist. She's also a writer for The Washington Post,
Speaker 1: the Washington exemin of the New York Post, to Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: Post Gazette and creator Syndicate Selena, I want to talk
Speaker 1: to you about your piece about the pit revival, but
Speaker 1: before I do, I have had messages today from TDS
Speaker 1: affected old friends who want to know if I'm outraged
Speaker 1: at the President and the poper mixing it up. And
Speaker 1: I won't engage because this is hardly new and it's
Speaker 1: hardly news, and it hasn't bothered me in the least.
Speaker 1: You're as catholic as I am. What's your reaction?
Speaker 3: Same?
Speaker 9: Absolutely the same.
Speaker 10: In fact, I didn't even know about it until today
Speaker 10: because I've been so busy working and I don't. Sometimes
Speaker 10: wonder you how do people even have time to spend
Speaker 10: as much energy on being outraged when.
Speaker 1: Catholic they're anti Trump, and so they want Catholics to
Speaker 1: be anti Trump, and Catholics say, uh, the pope. The
Speaker 1: pope gets it right, the pope gets it wrong. The
Speaker 1: Pope doesn't do politics. The pope does doctrine. Call me
Speaker 1: when he says that divorce people and get married, or
Speaker 1: call me when he says the communion, Yeah, call me
Speaker 1: on a doctrinal matter. I don't expect them to get politics, right,
Speaker 1: do you.
Speaker 5: No?
Speaker 9: Absolutely no, it's not a politician.
Speaker 10: I mean in a way he is, but in a
Speaker 10: way that we don't think of in traditional American politics. Look,
Speaker 10: popes have always weighed in on wars. Popes have always
Speaker 10: weighed in on immigration. It's often always been way off
Speaker 10: from from where leaders of countries are for a variety
Speaker 10: of different reasons. But that's the way a pope is
Speaker 10: always going to be. Does it make me dislike the pope?
Speaker 10: Does it make me dislike the president? It's just another
Speaker 10: day that ends with why as.
Speaker 1: Far as okay, let me switch over to your fascinating
Speaker 1: story on Sanctuary Church in Pittsburgh and the Pittsburgh Revival
Speaker 1: and what happened downtown. Tell people about it, take your time.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it was really amazing.
Speaker 10: It was how the University of Pittsburgh at at Peterson
Speaker 10: Center where the peat as they call it, which is
Speaker 10: where you usually will catch a basketball game or cont shirt. Uh,
Speaker 10: And it was filled with thousands and thousands of mostly young.
Speaker 9: People though I'm not so young, who just came for
Speaker 9: for this revival.
Speaker 10: It's it's sort of stemmed out of another revival that
Speaker 10: happened in September, not long after Charlie Karp was murdered,
Speaker 10: and and it's it's just sort of this growth that
Speaker 10: I've seen in faith that has been happening since excuse me,
Speaker 10: last fall. And I have to say in that story,
Speaker 10: I also talk about the growth and Catholic attendance. And
Speaker 10: my little parents alone there were too. My little parents
Speaker 10: is just like this little country church, right, there's two
Speaker 10: hundred new baptisms, and they were babies. They were all
Speaker 10: babies of people coming coming together and being awakened right
Speaker 10: drawn back into church.
Speaker 9: And it's a very very real thing.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, I went to the vigil on Saturday
Speaker 1: night Eastern because I was working on Sunday morning for
Speaker 1: Fox New Sunday, and so I went to the vigil,
Speaker 1: which is not my favorite service because it is a
Speaker 1: three and a half hour service, but there were fifty
Speaker 1: adult baptisms, which is kind of remarkable. And I don't
Speaker 1: think it's unique. I think it's going on. I credit Focus,
Speaker 1: which was begun by Archbishopship Hugh Back in Denver. I
Speaker 1: credit John Paul, the Ion and the benedict Seminarians, not
Speaker 1: the Francis Seminarians. Don't credit them. But I think the
Speaker 1: American Church is pretty vibrant right now. And I got
Speaker 1: to say, sixteen minutes went out of their way to
Speaker 1: find the three lefties who are bishops in the United States,
Speaker 1: and they didn't do the church in the favor, but
Speaker 1: they didn't hurt it either. It's not like it makes it.
Speaker 1: It's like throwing pebbles at a battleship, right, and.
Speaker 9: People are people that are drawn to Catholicism.
Speaker 10: If we just keep it a Catholicism, people would have
Speaker 10: drawn to Catholics andraicism. We're not watching sixty minutes to
Speaker 10: see three people gripe about American politics.
Speaker 9: They're just not These are most.
Speaker 10: Of these people that are coming to the faith are young,
Speaker 10: they have young families.
Speaker 9: You know, just this little antidote from yesterday. I am
Speaker 9: always late.
Speaker 1: For church, not like late you're Italian.
Speaker 9: When the bells ring, I'm just like scooting in there.
Speaker 10: And there are four parking lots and they're filled to
Speaker 10: the brim and people are parked on It wasn't like
Speaker 10: this year ago.
Speaker 9: People are parked on the side of the road.
Speaker 10: And this die comes past me like really aggressive, like mad,
Speaker 10: and he goes and he's grumbling about it because I
Speaker 10: can't believe the parking here.
Speaker 9: And I said, you ought to consider the alternative.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And.
Speaker 9: He looked at me and I said, yesterday. Yesterday was
Speaker 9: the one hundredth anniversary. I hope people go to my
Speaker 9: Twitter account and check this out.
Speaker 10: I put it very sad today, one hundred anniversary of
Speaker 10: the church that my family came up in, and it
Speaker 10: was the last service.
Speaker 9: I couldn't even bring myself to go.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, it happened sometimes because of demographics and populationship. Yes,
Speaker 1: what are they going to do? What are they going
Speaker 1: to do with the building.
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 10: I think it's too soon. But yeah, the neighborhood changed
Speaker 10: drafts drastically. It was a church that you walked to.
Speaker 10: It really have a parking lot. It was built one
Speaker 10: hundred years ago when the northern suburbs of the city
Speaker 10: were booming, and that has changed.
Speaker 9: People have moved.
Speaker 10: They have moved to places where I am, where it's
Speaker 10: more country, more rural, and that's where you see the
Speaker 10: explosion in a lot of churches.
Speaker 1: So it has always been, so it will always be.
Speaker 1: But I did see your post and I thought, oh,
Speaker 1: that's kind of sad. On the other hand, tell me
Speaker 1: about the church as a whole and not about the
Speaker 1: arguments between the pope and the president. They're not very
Speaker 1: similar people, right, They're not very similar.
Speaker 9: You know, They're not similar people at all.
Speaker 10: And the only people that are mad about this is
Speaker 10: the same people that are mad every day, every minute
Speaker 10: of every day, who cannot have gotten over Donald Trump
Speaker 10: winning one, not one, but two elections, And they're going
Speaker 10: to be mad for the rest of their lives because
Speaker 10: he's never going to leave the atmosphere in terms of
Speaker 10: a kid, He's going to always be part of what
Speaker 10: we talk about in American culture and politics, and.
Speaker 1: Their anger is not good for them.
Speaker 2: I really do believe that.
Speaker 1: I think I think their anger is disfiguring their peace
Speaker 1: of mind and probably taking years off of this life
Speaker 1: and maybe making it more difficult than the next. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure. I don't judge, judge not let you be judged.
Speaker 1: Selena Zito. You can follow or add Zito Selena on ax.
Speaker 1: See the picture of her beautiful church of origin. Were
Speaker 1: you baptized there?
Speaker 8: Selena?
Speaker 6: I was dead my dad?
Speaker 1: All right, So go look at the picture over at
Speaker 1: Zito Selena on ax. Sign up for all of the
Speaker 1: columns at Selena zito dot com and come right, my friends.
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Speaker 1: Hewett his promise. Josh Cross, our editor in chief of
Speaker 1: Jewish Insider, Josh, how would you judge reaction both within
Speaker 1: the American Jewish community and within Israel to the ceasefire
Speaker 1: and the embargo?
Speaker 11: So two different, I think points of view when you
Speaker 11: look at Israeli public opinion and American Jewish public opinion.
Speaker 11: There was a wave of new polls in Israel that
Speaker 11: we reported on this weekend showing a lot of Israeli frustration.
Speaker 7: About the ceasefire. This is conducted by the way before.
Speaker 11: The negotiation in Pakistan went nowhere, and that Trump has
Speaker 11: now decided to blockade the straight and sounding a more
Speaker 11: I think a much more hawkish tone in the last
Speaker 11: twenty four hours. But look, I think Israelis expected, at
Speaker 11: least for the time being, a little more impact out
Speaker 11: of the military operation. I think they're satisfied. And Benjamin
Speaker 11: Netanyahu gave I think a notable speech where he talked
Speaker 11: about the damage done to the Iranian ballistic missile program,
Speaker 11: to the nuclear program. But based on some of the
Speaker 11: rhetoric at the beginning of the war versus what was
Speaker 11: accomplished so far, I think a lot of Israelis are
Speaker 11: a little bit I mean, they spent six weeks in
Speaker 11: bomb shelters and having their lives disrupted.
Speaker 7: I think they expected a more military games with the
Speaker 7: war to go on longer.
Speaker 11: Frankly, there's a hawkish sense that that there should have
Speaker 11: been more military action taken. I think in the US
Speaker 11: Jewish community it's much more divided. I think it's more
Speaker 11: divided along partisans, where Jewish Democrats I think are more
Speaker 11: cool about the war, and Jewish Republicans and dependence that
Speaker 11: may be more supportive.
Speaker 7: But I also think that there's a lot of uncertainty
Speaker 7: about where this is going.
Speaker 11: To go given the negotiations which led you know, the
Speaker 11: Trump administration have a hard line, and now we will
Speaker 11: see where things happen, but where things head militarily.
Speaker 1: Now, Josh, my point of view is the Iranians are
Speaker 1: always lying and the Americans in the Israelis are never
Speaker 1: telling us the whole truth. I suspect that I have
Speaker 1: seen estimates of three hundred billion dollars worth of damage
Speaker 1: to the Iranian economy, and embargo means they're out of money.
Speaker 1: They could have their assets seeds at any moment by
Speaker 1: the UAE, where the shadow banking is. They're on their back,
Speaker 1: and I don't know what they're going to do if
Speaker 1: we board and seize a couple of tankers or even worse,
Speaker 1: sink them, They're really screwed. I don't know how anyone
Speaker 1: isn't happy with where we are relative to where we
Speaker 1: were on February twenty seven. Are you happy with where
Speaker 1: we are relative to where we were on February twenty seven?
Speaker 11: Well, I can say that a lot has been accomplished
Speaker 11: militarily and has degriten to the point where I think
Speaker 11: even the most skeptical onlooker will acknowledge that a lot
Speaker 11: of Iran's weapons production and facilities have been degraded. I
Speaker 11: think we're the polit I mean, and then this is
Speaker 11: partly politics, but both Prime Minister and Anatanyahu in Israel
Speaker 11: and President Trump here in the US, you know, they
Speaker 11: are prone to very lofty rhetoric or very ambitious rhetoric.
Speaker 11: And I think, uh, the expectation was in Israel, the
Speaker 11: prospect of regime change was was floated, not so much
Speaker 11: here in the United States.
Speaker 7: But I think, you know, the notion that the.
Speaker 11: Weapons production has been devastated and totally destroyed not not.
Speaker 7: Quite the case. There's still more to do.
Speaker 11: And also the economic implications here in the States and
Speaker 11: across across the world. So you know, you kind of
Speaker 11: got I think the politics flow from a cost benefit analysis.
Speaker 11: I think there definitely have been some tangible benefits in
Speaker 11: degrading Iran's military production. Further, h was it, you know,
Speaker 11: but does mean we're in another year, there's going to
Speaker 11: have to be another war because not everything was completed.
Speaker 11: That that's the open question, both in Israel and the
Speaker 11: United States.
Speaker 1: That I spent most of the last week saying it
Speaker 1: could be Munich, it could be Recovic, it could be Appomatics,
Speaker 1: turned out to be Rekovic and jd Vance did the
Speaker 1: Reagan grim face leave in a hurry. But when you
Speaker 1: look at what's happened, Iran has no money, They have
Speaker 1: no ability to project force beyond some speed boats and
Speaker 1: ten to twenty percent of their missile capacity. And they
Speaker 1: can still maybe haunt the haunt the straight of horror moves,
Speaker 1: but already alternatives to that are being developed on paper.
Speaker 1: I would think Israelis would be if not. And by
Speaker 1: the way, we haven't stopped. The United States did not
Speaker 1: demand Israel stop operating in Lebanon. That's just win after
Speaker 1: we're stacking wins here.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 11: I also think the point you made, Hugh crazy that
Speaker 11: we're kind of having these conclusivets with six seven weeks
Speaker 11: into the war, like this attention deficit disorder in the
Speaker 11: country where we expect immediate returns. That's not how history
Speaker 11: oper I mean, you look through any war, you look
Speaker 11: at any diplomatic negotiations. This stuff tent does take time.
Speaker 11: The notion that this is a failure massive, I mean,
Speaker 11: it's kind of absurd on its face.
Speaker 7: So I do agree with you on that.
Speaker 11: I try to try to put it in with our
Speaker 11: coverage a Jewish insider, try to add that nuance because
Speaker 11: this is not black and white, and this is not
Speaker 11: something that's going to happen immediately.
Speaker 7: And I do think the trends have been encouraging.
Speaker 11: I don't think the regime is more powerful than it
Speaker 11: was at the beginning of the war, and hopefully maybe
Speaker 11: with some economic pressure, there could be pressure from the inside.
Speaker 11: But I don't think it's going to happen overnight. It'll
Speaker 11: take a longer amount of time. I also think that,
Speaker 11: you know, the big question is what is the Trump
Speaker 11: administration going to do. I do think there was a
Speaker 11: sort of a Ratievic moment where people were worried that
Speaker 11: Vance was going to give away the store. It turns
Speaker 11: out he held the line and left after twenty one hours,
Speaker 11: and I think that was the right way.
Speaker 7: I think a lot of Israelis will relieved, a lot
Speaker 7: of Americans.
Speaker 11: I think our relief that we're not taking undue concessions
Speaker 11: to a ran. But I think the big question here is,
Speaker 11: you know, is there gonna be military operations again? What
Speaker 11: does it mean to to blockade the Straight. How is
Speaker 11: that going to affect the economy in the larger context
Speaker 11: of the war.
Speaker 1: Well, what is I think? I know what a blockade
Speaker 1: does is it means they're out of money and they're
Speaker 1: not going to get any What do you think a
Speaker 1: blockade means?
Speaker 7: You know, my read of it is that they're they're
Speaker 7: putting back and they're they're pausing the.
Speaker 11: Military pressure, but they're going to now try to put
Speaker 11: economic pressure on the regime. I think it makes some sense,
Speaker 11: given that the regime has lost militarily and they're other
Speaker 11: they're facing the squeeze economically. But it is sort of
Speaker 11: counterintuitive because you know, we've been talking about trying to
Speaker 11: open the Straight and that was sort of the context
Speaker 11: of a lot of our conversation and how to handle
Speaker 11: the situation, and now you know the US is actually
Speaker 11: trying to keep it closed for preventing ran from making
Speaker 11: money off of the limited amount of oil transfers or
Speaker 11: energy transfers that we're coming through.
Speaker 1: We have our cake and eat it too. We don't
Speaker 1: want any ships from Iran going through, but we want
Speaker 1: everyone else to come through, and we've sent a couple
Speaker 1: of destroyers through. We got a minute last minute, Josh,
Speaker 1: we have blown up fifty to one hundred of their
Speaker 1: senior people. There's a power scramble underweigh in Iran right now.
Speaker 1: We can't see it. I can't hope to understand who is.
Speaker 1: But do you have any sense of how it's going?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 11: There was a story I read over the weekend that
Speaker 11: highlighted the five leading officials left in the Iranian regime,
Speaker 11: one of them being that the Speaker of the Parliament,
Speaker 11: who is someone that the White House has at least
Speaker 11: privately identified as someone that may be a little more pragmatic.
Speaker 7: I don't know if that's the case, but that's that's
Speaker 7: what the White.
Speaker 11: House is thinking is But it shows they're generally fairly
Speaker 11: lower level folks, which shows how significant not just the
Speaker 11: losity Iola, but a lot of the.
Speaker 7: More senior IRGC officials work or for six weeks or
Speaker 1: More, Many many more chapters to be written, many of
Speaker 1: them can be read at you Shinsider, and you ought
Speaker 1: to follow Josh on x at Josh Cross Hour Coming