WEBVTT - We are winning in Iran 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple, 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:22.919 iTunes and Hillsdale. Welcome Back America. Hugh hewittt in the 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.520 Relief Factors studio Beltwigh, joined by an lsc Rothman, you 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.640 can follow on Exit nosc Rothman, senior writer for a 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:34.000 National Review, participant often in the Editors podcast. No. I 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.400 asked you to stick around extra today because I listened 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:41.839 to the editors this week and I love Rich, Love Michael, 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:45.040 Brendan Doherty, love Charles C. W. Cook. They've all been 0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:47.680 guessing here frequently. But I don't think they I don't 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:50.320 think they dealt fairly with you and the last editors. 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:53.600 Did you get enough time to stake the case in 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:54.200 your opinion? 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:57.800 Well, I think I got plenty of time. 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:02.320 My colleagues are more skeptical of the campaign than I am, 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:07.039 and for reasons that are perfectly well reasoned and legitimate 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:10.080 and prudent. I wouldn't question any of their motives. I 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:11.959 think they're sound and the. 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:13.600 Sacticism is justified. 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:16.760 Question they're wrong. 0:01:18.200 --> 0:01:19.320 I argue that as well. 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:20.759 I want to give you a lot. 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:22.800 Of run Unspy. How you see the war. 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:27.759 Well, listen, and as I said on the show, if 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:29.720 you were to gauge it, I gauge it in two 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:33.640 different ways, tactically and strategically. Tactically, this is one of 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:36.880 the most impressive military campaigns in the history of the 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.560 human race. Which is not an exaggeration the degree to 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:43.280 which we're taking out a top twenty military power on 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:46.039 the planet Earth. This is state interstate conflict. This is 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:47.520 not the sort of war that we're used to in 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.000 the post nine to eleven world. We're fighting as state power, 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:54.120 and we are doing so with incredible success. Everything is 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:57.600 relative and in relative terms. We've been gaming out this 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.520 war with a Ran for twenty five years longer, and 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:05.680 those wargames produced catastrophic results in the world. Before October seventh, 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:08.600 twenty twenty three, Iran was capable of shutting down the 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:11.000 Straight within the first week and shutting down the Straight 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:13.600 to its own traffic as well mining the Straight, as 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:16.400 it did in the nineteen eighties, threatening shipping with really 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:21.600 scary anti ship missiles, drones, ballistic missiles, etc. The prospects 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:24.200 were for a major campaign, a ground war with up 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:27.200 to a million troops men at arms occupying the entire country, 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:32.760 Iranian cities, leveled, huge refugee crisis across the region, instability 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.040 throughout the region, up to a million dead on both 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:36.880 sides of the conflict. You can go check this out. 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:39.000 To say nothing of oil prices which were expected to 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:41.440 skyrocket two hundred three hundred dollars a barrow within the 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:46.080 first week. As recently as twenty nineteen, everything changed after 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:50.200 October seventh. Has Reel spent the last three years methodically 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:55.120 dismantling Iran's proxy terrorist network, which were to pose a 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:58.000 real threat in an existential war. We were expecting that 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:03.200 Iranian terrorist cells active and passive, would be activated in 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:06.280 North America, in Latin America, in Europe and would target 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:10.120 soft targets, and that threat has not entirely abated to 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:13.000 my knowledge. I wouldn't say that the threat is completely gone, 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:17.120 but it was much more grave a menace to Israel, 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:20.200 to American troops in the regions and Syria and Iraq, etc. 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:24.360 And what we're experiencing instead is total. 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:27.840 Air superiority, verging on air supremacy, the destruction of the 0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:33.480 Iranian navy, the entire navy, the elimination almost of Iran's 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:37.680 capacity to fire long range ballistic missiles, short range ballistic missiles. 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:39.840 We're attenuating its drone capacity. 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:43.600 We're striking really hard now at these depots and factories 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.480 that allow Iran to manufacture the munitions that would have 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:50.120 shielded its nuclear program and possibly denied US area access 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.600 to the entire Middle East in the event of if 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:53.320 we didn't act. 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:56.640 And we have experienced. 0:03:56.240 --> 0:04:00.200 Three US soldiers killed by enemy fire, six rather just 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:02.280 killed by enemy fire, each of which is a tragedy, 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:04.200 each of which is an atrocity. You could argue, I 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:08.520 would argue, and definitely something to warn. But again, if 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:11.080 we are going to look at this campaign and say 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:15.080 we've sustained three fatalities due to enemy fire and that's unacceptable, 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:18.120 I just don't understand where you're coming from. What metrics 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:22.320 are you using to evaluate that, What historical benchmarks are 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:24.919 you grading this against. I just feel like it's an 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:27.040 impossible standard to hold the United States too, that the 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:29.599 enemy can't be allowed to fire a successful shot. That's 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:32.520 just an unrealistic standard to hold any country engaged in 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:33.960 a real war, and this is a real war. 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:39.640 Some numbers. Ten Israelis have been killed, thirteen American serviceman 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:43.719 sixtion combat seven is a result of an air catastrophe 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:47.000 that was not caused by the enemy or by friendly fire. 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:50.359 We've lost a couple of jets to friendly fire in Kuwait. 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:54.760 A number of our United Arab Emirates in Qatari and 0:04:55.160 --> 0:05:00.840 Saudi Arabian facilities have been hit today. A reported just 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:04.320 minutes ago. The state of Gutter expresses its strong and 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.840 unequivocal condemnation of the brutal Iranian attack on the industrial 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:12.640 city of ross Laffen, which caused fire sufficient damage significant 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:15.680 damage to the facility. Gutter views this attack as a 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:19.400 dangerous escalation, the blatant violation of its sovereignty, as well 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:21.520 as a direct threat to its national security and the 0:05:21.680 --> 0:05:24.560 stability of the region. Meanwhile, Israel in the United States 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:29.000 took out the largest facility seaborne facility for the production 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:33.120 of domestic use natural gas in Iran. So the war 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:37.760 is widening to the Iranian infrastructure and overnight Israel took 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:40.560 out like number three and number five on the list 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:43.240 of the top ten people in Iran. Every morning I 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:47.360 opened up the Times of Israel, Noah, and they've gotten 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:50.040 two or three more of the batties. I don't know 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:54.720 anyone could describe this as other than an overwhelming success 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:57.640 with the tragic costs of life. That's how it is 0:05:57.640 --> 0:05:58.840 to be described. I haven't. 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:02.040 When I say this stuff like I'm accused of being 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:05.600 pollyannish about this campaign, because there are downsides and I 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:10.880 don't want to minimize those. But again, the Iranian campaign 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.680 to extend the pain of this war to Gulf states 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.120 is part of the playbook, and the playbook suggested that 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:20.719 Iran would execute something like the twenty nineteen a Ramco attack. 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:23.799 Remember that the attack on the Saudi petroleum processing facility, 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:25.040 the largest on the planet Earth. 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:26.760 That was a strategic assault. 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:31.280 It was involved multiple drones hitting very specific targets designed 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.599 to affect international oil prices. We're not seeing anything nearly 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:36.799 that coordinated. And the reason we're not seeing anything nearly 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:41.200 that coordinated is because our technological and intelligence capacities shared 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:44.560 with Israel have evolved to the point where strikes on 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:48.800 leadership targets, pinpoint strikes on individuals, the sort of thing 0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:51.080 that we could only fantasize about in two thousand and 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:52.920 three when we attempted to open that war with a 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:54.599 decapitation strike and failed. 0:06:54.800 --> 0:06:58.520 That's usually what happens. Very hard to forget that instead. 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:01.240 Quit early one thousand and three because we thought we 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.640 knew where Sudam was and we didn't get Sadamn for months. 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:07.520 For months he hit out, and of course the dec 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:10.600 of cards, we never fully decapitated the regime. There's a 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:11.960 different kind of war, but. 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.720 No I will one contrast, we've eliminated forty nine of 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:21.320 Kamane's top associates, including the head of his intelligence services, 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:22.600 his security chiefs, the. 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:23.800 Guy who was running the war. 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:26.280 And we're pealing back the layers of this regime, which 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:28.600 is contributing a to instability in the regime. The command 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:31.800 and control structure is gone. We're seeing people individual IRGC 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:35.080 commanders act autonomously, which minimizes the amount of damage they 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:37.640 can do. And second you peel back these layers, you 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.080 finally you get to people who are maybe less loyal 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:42.480 to the regime, who maybe prioritize their own survival and 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.040 their family survival, who maybe want to talk to us. 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.040 These are all stratiefic objectives. 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:50.880 Have you seen the reports of members of the besiege 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.720 and a few IRGC refusing to report for work or deserting. 0:07:56.720 --> 0:07:58.880 I have not, but Hugh and I said this on 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:02.520 the commentary podcast today. It was really curious to me 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:06.320 to hear Benjamin Nya who say, yesterday, Iranian people go 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.920 out and celebrate in the rules. Yep, we got your back. 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.680 We're in the sky, we're watching you. Go celebrate, enjoy 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:15.000 your lives. I didn't expect that to happen for. 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:15.680 A couple of weeks. 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.880 He's not said go engage in insert violence, but he 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:20.680 is saying go outside. 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:23.320 He is, and I was taken him back by that 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:24.920 as well. We may play that for you don't go 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:28.760 anywhere America because Noah Rothman is probably occasionally I like 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:31.200 to talk to pundons who agree with me. Noah and 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:35.360 I might be the most Impacotico views of the war. 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:37.959 I think the world is so much better off. We 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:40.520 got to talk about the strategicy involved as well. China 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.120 cannot be liking any of this, and we got to 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:45.960 talk about American public opinion. Don't go anywhere. I'm you 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:54.040 you itt no A. Rothman will be right back. Welcome 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:56.560 back in America. I'm Hugh Hewittt with Noah C. Rothman, 0:08:56.640 --> 0:09:00.400 senior writer for a National Review. Noah, I have described 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:03.560 this as a battle within Cold War two. Cold War 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:05.800 two of course with the United States and China, but 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:09.280 the battle here has three parts Venezuela, Cuba, and of 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:12.680 course Iran. If you're China, how do you view the 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:16.920 developments of the last fifteen months of Donald Trump's presidency. 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:21.960 Well, it haven't been great if you've predicated your geopolitical 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.840 strategy on developing and leaning on as many of the 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:27.920 anti American powers as you could. And again, as of 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:32.439 January I'm sorry October sixth, twenty twenty three, they consisted 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:36.199 roughly of Russia, China and North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:39.120 and you could say Nicaragua perhaps, but on the edges 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:39.480 of that. 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:39.880 Sort of thing. 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:43.720 And we've seen a significant attenuation of the anti American 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:47.360 access over the course of I would say that the 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:50.079 end of Joe Biden's presidency all the know thanks to him, 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:53.240 in part because Israel took its destiny into its own hands, 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:57.120 but the Trump administration has pretty much taken Venezuela off 0:09:57.160 --> 0:10:00.640 the board for now. I don't love that the regime 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:02.559 is still in place, and it still has the very 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:05.560 same character of the regime that Hugo chav has established 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:08.360 in nineteen ninety nine. But they're playing ball, and the 0:10:08.400 --> 0:10:12.200 oil exports that were gifted to Cuba have been cut off. 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:15.600 China can no longer rely on them either. That's strategically valuable, 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:21.000 and Irana is China's gas pump. China's insulated itself from 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:22.080 fuel shocks. 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:23.920 To my understanding, They've. 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:28.439 Electrified a lot of their civilian automotive fleet, and they 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:31.400 have significant stockpiles in anticipation. 0:10:30.840 --> 0:10:31.920 Of this very scenario. 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:34.680 But it's going to hurt, and they're going to rely 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:39.200 ever more on Russia now strategically. The thinking, as I 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:41.520 understand it, among those who do this kind of thinking, 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:44.880 is that it is in our interests to do something 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:49.400 like the opposite of the Sino Soviets split, like a 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:53.600 reverse Kissingerian approach to the dynamics between China and Russia. 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:56.439 Rather than split them, we want to bind them together. 0:10:56.600 --> 0:11:00.360 We want their fates intertwined, because Russia is a declining power. 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:02.880 It is a power embroiled in a war it cannot win. 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:06.400 It is a gas station that has a nuclear weapons 0:11:06.400 --> 0:11:10.080 facility attached to it, as I believe Lindsay Graham used 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:14.199 to say, and China is a rising power, but it's 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:17.200 got plenty of internal problems on its own, and it 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:19.920 is confronting now something that it hasn't seen in a 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.520 long time, which is a demonstration of American state power. 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:26.720 We're seeing a lot of commentary about how exquisite ordinance 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:30.160 is being depleted, and that's a problem because we can't 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:34.080 replace it as fast as we're using it, specifically missile interceptors, 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:38.280 but also a variety of other high end missiles, you know, 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:43.200 long range weapons, standoff munitions. But that's got to be 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.960 mitigated by the fact that we have demonstrated the will 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:50.000 to use them in a sustained way, in a strategic way, 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:52.880 and in a very impressive way. That's the sort of 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:54.760 thing that puts the fear of God into you. There's 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:58.280 something that people who observe foreign policy just kind of dismiss, 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:02.280 and that is elementary human psychology, Like I don't begrudge 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:02.720 this is something. 0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:03.960 This is where we're going to disagree with you. 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:07.840 I don't begrudge European powers that have been treated like 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:11.280 garbage by this administration for months and saying well, now 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:13.000 you need us, and look where it's going to get you. 0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:18.000 That's elementary human psychology. So too is the human psychology 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:22.000 of seeing the United States decimate a rogue but not 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:27.040 in substantial military power in Iran with the quickness, with 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:32.120 relative ease, and demonstrate the will to continue that fight, 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:36.079 to fruition to an endgame that is shaping the thinking 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.280 in Beijing. That is changing their considerations. It may not 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.200 change the considerations for the better by the way they 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:45.800 may proceed in the windows we do disagree, that's closing fasts. 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:50.360 I expect European leaders to act in their national interest. 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:53.120 Palmerston said that we have no permanent friends or enemy to, 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:57.040 only permanent interests. So I expect them to look past insults, 0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:01.000 behavior that they don't consider to be reciproc all of 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:03.400 that to the fact that they wanted one thing from 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:06.720 America arms for Ukraine, which we sold them. We didn't 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:09.360 give it to them. They haven't spent five percent, much 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:12.640 less two percent for decades. They have been a free 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:15.720 writer and I've been okay with that. I'm like Lindsay Graham, 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:19.360 we need Europe. But this is not the time to 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:22.640 exercise your peak. This is the time to do something 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.400 symbolic because they have you know, the British Navy's down 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.959 to twenty seven ships. I think that they're not really 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:33.199 a superpower. They've got some nukes. France is crippled by 0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:37.200 internal divisions that make our look like paper mache. The 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:40.319 people we can rely on are the Polls, the Ukraines, 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:44.000 the Thins, the Swedes, and they can't really give us 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:47.160 they're involved in a war, so the people are a loser. 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:49.400 Here is great Britain in France. You get a minute 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:53.280 to the break. Then we'll come back and have America. Yeah. 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:55.559 Sure, listen, there's nothing I disagree with there, and it 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.319 would be very valuable for us to have these ships 0:13:57.320 --> 0:13:59.079 to help escort missions when it's time to do those 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.600 escort missions, which is now. Now is the time to 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.000 sequentially degrade RAN's capacity to project power in the Persian golf, 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.560 and then we demonstrate that the Persian golf is clear. 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:10.120 Everything's going to happen in a sequential order. But we're 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:12.360 going to have to agree to disagree. Yes, I understand. 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:14.280 I believe it's cutting off your nose to spite your face, 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.719 to react as they have reacted. Do I blame them? 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:18.880 Do I think that they don't have any motive or 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:20.240 impetus for acting that way? 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.360 No, I guess it's fine. And then we don't disagree. 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:25.520 We just think they had to be I think they 0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:28.320 had to be more mature. So do you. But you're 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:31.800 more understanding of them, I say, huh. Great nations don't 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:35.240 need psychologists. I'll be right back with Noah Rothman to 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:45.720 talk about American public opinion after this Welcome Back America, 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.720 hew it in the Relief Actors Studio inside the Beltway, 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:52.240 Join by Noah C. Rothman, Senior writer for National Review. 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:55.200 You can hear Noah on the Editor's podcast. He's a 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:58.200 guest host on the Commentary podcast Today, which I will 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.680 listen to after the show. You can follow him on 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:04.440 Exit no c Rothman. No, I want you to listen 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.560 to Harry Anton on CNN last night talk about the 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.840 state of American public opinion, beginning with Republicans and Trump. 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:13.080 Then we'll come back and get your thoughts on how 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:16.240 this might feed into November. Here is Harry Anton, and 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:17.200 this is one. 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:19.680 Of those because just take a look here, MAGA GOP 0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:24.760 a view of Trump approve one hundred percent, one hundred percent. 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:27.440 If you are a member of MEGA and the GOP 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:32.760 you approve of Donald John Trump zero percent say that 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:35.560 they disapprove. You don't have to be a mathematical genius 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.040 to know you can't go higher than one hundred percent. 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:41.520 He is the nineteen hundred and seventy two Miami Dolphins. Now, 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.840 there are some Republicans who disapprove of Donald John Trump, 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:48.960 but they are not members of the Make America Great 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:51.320 Again movement. The bottom line is this, if you are 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.040 a member of MEGA, you approve of Donald Trump. 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:56.120 It's interesting, though, because there have been a couple prominent 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:58.640 people who have sort of come out online and they're 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:02.640 very mad about this war with Iran because he promised 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:05.160 no new wars. Is there anything that people might be 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:08.120 leaving MAGA relative to twenty twenty four? 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:11.240 Yeah, okay, so you know I've said it before, and 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.360 you know the theme of this segment is Tucker Carlson 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.800 b darn and when we look at the numbers, I 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.920 mean I've heard some people say, oh, you know what, 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.000 when you look at those MAGA numbers, it doesn't account 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:22.520 for those who might have left MAGA. But take a 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.200 look here Americans who identify as MAGA. In November of 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:27.720 twenty twenty four, it was twenty eight percent of Americans. 0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:30.600 Now it's basically the same of anything, it's slightly higher 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.680 at thirty percent. The bottom line is this, the magabase 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:34.240 within the. 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:35.800 GOP is not shrinking. 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:37.479 It's the same size. 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:40.880 If anything, it is slightly larger than it was back 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:42.880 in twenty twenty four, when, of course, Donald Trump won 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:45.360 a second term. So that one hundred percent that Donald 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.160 Trump has approval among MAGA GOP that is not an 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:49.480 artifact of MAGA shrinking. 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:51.720 It's just an indication of how. 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.640 Strong Donald Trump's grip is on that MAGA base. 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.120 And so I guess it begs the questions what's happening 0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:00.120 with inside the GOP and if there are any splits there, 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:02.640 because with that those kind of numbers, they're going to 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:04.840 want to retain that right so they can retain their seed. 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.880 Yes, yes, and you know what we're talking about. 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:09.480 You know, we've mentioned Iran in the intro. 0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:12.080 Of this segment GOP on US military action in Iran. 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.120 Look at this in Magga, it's ninety percent approval. It's 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.720 ninety percent approval, just five percent disapprove. If you disapprove 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.760 of the job that Donald Trump is doing, or excuse me, 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.119 the US military action in Iran, and you're a member 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:26.800 of the GOP, look at this, it's your non maggot, 0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:29.040 You're not Magga. It's thirty six percent there, fifty four 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.159 percent approval. But the majority of Republicans approve of the 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:34.679 job that the US military action is in Iran, and 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.280 the majority of MAGA, which is the majority of the 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:39.880 GOP very much proof ninety percent, very little. 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:42.639 You No, you are not MAGA. I am not MAGA. 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.640 I'm a Reagan Conservative. I don't know how you describe yourself? 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.040 What do you make of I think Harry is a 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:50.800 pretty good pull, sure, and I think it's an honestly presented, 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:55.200 presented set of numbers. What do you make of them? 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:57.960 It comports with what I've been seeing in the polling. 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:02.840 And it's important to distinguish self described MAGA voters versus 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.440 self described Republican voters, because self describe MEGA voters to 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:09.080 expressed a higher approval rating of the president overall. To 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:12.919 say nothing of the Iran war specific whereas Republican voters 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.480 take a more nuanced view, and I've seen numbers that 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:18.920 are higher than sixty four percent among Republicans who support 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:21.160 this war. Depends on the poll you go to. I've 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:23.280 seen mid seventies, I've seen low eighties. 0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:24.560 You have to. 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:26.960 Remember that it's not like Donald Trump came out of 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:30.600 nowhere and said we should be hostile and confrontational with Iran. 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:35.600 This has been baked into the Republican DNA, Republican voters 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:39.280 DNA since the inception of the Islamic Republic forty seven 0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:41.879 years ago, including Donald Trump himself, who was one of 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:45.160 the most outspoken expostulators of a view that we should 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:48.280 be much more aggressive towards Iran as early as nineteen 0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:51.320 eighty and has been consistent in that view throughout his 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:53.919 career in public life. So this is not something that 0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:56.280 the President really has to sell to Republicans. It's a 0:18:56.440 --> 0:19:00.120 different story when you're talking about the rest of the 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.520 the electorate, and we can get really deep and granular 0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:05.879 with this thing, like for example, YouGov has a survey 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:09.360 of today which indicates that while seventeen percent of self 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:13.919 described Republicans I'm maga. Just Republicans express dissatisfaction with Trump's 0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:17.600 job approval, A full third thirty three percent are disapproving 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:19.720 of the president when it comes to gas prices, and 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:24.439 gas prices are ineluctibly linked with the instability in the 0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:27.520 Persian Gulf and therefore an expression of disapproval in the war. 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:30.960 You could really go granular with this thing if you 0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:33.320 wanted to, But I think that does kind of miss 0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:36.480 the mark because while these voters are expressing dissatisfaction with 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:40.359 their own personal finances, and that satisfaction will could and 0:19:40.440 --> 0:19:43.960 probably will result in less enthusiasm to go to the 0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:47.480 polls in November, especially if these conditions persist. I doubt 0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:49.760 they will, but if we were in stasis between now 0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:52.520 and November, that would mute enthusiasm to vote for Republican 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:55.439 candidates at the polls. But I think it just misses 0:19:55.480 --> 0:20:00.520 the point because we're not talking about November's elections, talking 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:04.120 about the price of gas between now and July. We're 0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:09.919 talking about an apocl confrontation with an immortal American enemy, 0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:12.560 And on the other side of this thing could be 0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:15.640 a lot of benefits that Americans will perceive and don't 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.080 even understand their paying Now. Nobody has any idea how 0:20:19.160 --> 0:20:22.400 much resources we devote, how much time it takes, how 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:27.480 many US service personnel and civilians, public servants alike, devote 0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:30.080 to containing the threat from Iran. These people work day 0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:33.680 and night to kill our servicemen, to kill our public servants, 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:35.440 to frustrate our interests in the world. 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:37.520 We've just gotten really good at interdicting it. But they 0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:40.280 never stop. They do not sleep. This is what they do. 0:20:40.920 --> 0:20:42.680 And if on the other side of a world without 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:45.919 the Islamic Republic, where we finally get to engineer the 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:48.199 pivot to Asia that we've always wanted to engineer, we 0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:51.840 can contain Russia in Europe. We know how to do that. 0:20:52.280 --> 0:20:54.720 NATO allies are very good at doing that. What we 0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:56.679