WEBVTT - The U.S. Armada nears Iran 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 Hillsdale Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at HU for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple, 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:17.599 iTunes and Hillsdale So America. 0:00:17.600 --> 0:00:18.400 I asked promise. 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:22.880 I'm joined by Kareem Sajafor of the Carnegie Endowment. Kareem 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:25.560 is one of the belt Ways genuine experts on the 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:28.200 Islamic Republic of Iran, and he has been tutoring me 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.360 for at least a decade. A mutual friend introduced us 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:34.360 over dinner when I moved back to Washington in twenty sixteen. 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:37.280 Had the occasion since then to get up meet with 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:39.640 him a couple of times and dig deep into the 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:40.680 Islamic Republic. 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:43.040 And boy, you're in demand right now. Kareem. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:44.600 First of all, it's good to see you. Thank you 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:46.640 for doing this. I know how busy you must be 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:49.520 right now. Is the phone just ringing constantly off the hook? 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:54.000 It is indeed a very busy time, and I appreciate 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:55.440 you inviting me. 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:57.280 Back to well welcome back. 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:00.880 Can we start by alerting the audience telling me background. 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:03.200 You went to the University of Michigan. We're going to 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:07.040 overlook that here at Ohio State Headquarters. But tell them 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.360 your background and how you came to specialize and all 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:10.000 things here on. 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:12.400 Sure. 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:14.800 So, I was born in the United States, but my 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:17.679 parents were originally from Iran. 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:19.360 They immigrated to the United States. 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:24.120 Most Iranian families in the United States came here nineteen 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:26.760 seventy nine or shortly thereafter when they were nineteen seventy 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.399 nine revolution happened, but my parents had immigrated to the 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.160 United States a decade prior to that, and so my 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:38.000 father was a neurologist. We grew up mostly in Michigan. 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:41.520 I went to University of Michigan and Arbor. I played soccer. 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:44.840 The first person I met in freshman orientation was Tom 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:50.360 Brady friendship, which in hindsight, I should have cultivated. And 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:54.240 you know I lived. I grew up speaking Persian in 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.920 our kitchen. I call it kitchen Persian. I wasn't formally 0:01:56.920 --> 0:01:59.960 schooled in it, but I grew up with English in Persian, 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:04.640 and then I spent several years living abroad in college 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:07.520 and even in high school, I spent a year living 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:11.080 in Mexico. I lived in college in Italy. I wasn't 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:14.160 really interested in the Middle East until I felt that 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:17.120 things started to change in your own politically. It looked 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:20.720 like there was a political opening in the late nineteen nineties, 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:26.360 and so I started to I went to After undergrad, 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:28.560 I went to graduate school at the Johns Hopkins School 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.480 of Advance International Studies. I focused on the Middle East, 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:35.280 and the first week of my grad school, nine to 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:37.960 eleven happened, and so that was when it was obviously 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:41.960 very clear to me that I wanted to dedicate my 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:45.400 career to this topic. And Hewett, had you asked me 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:53.560 in two thousand and one whether the running regime would 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:55.640 look the way it does today, I would have said, no, 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:57.800 it looked like your own even back then was a 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:01.040 country which was on the CUSCOP change. And so I 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:04.760 was based in Tehran with an organization called the International 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:05.480 Crisis Group. 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:07.480 I was based there for several. 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:11.320 Years until I was nearly imprisoned. I was one of 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:16.480 the first of the dual nationals that they warned, you know, 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:19.560 I came back to the United States, and I hated 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:21.400 that warning. I didn't go back to your own. But 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:24.920 many of my friends, perhaps more than a dozen, tried 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.480 to go back to your own and they spent time 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:27.959 in prison. 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:29.840 And so for the last two. 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:33.640 Decades now, I've I've been focused on Iran at the 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:37.320 Carnegie Down for International Peace. I'm a contributing writer at 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:39.800 The Atlantic, and I teach at Georgetown University. 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:43.360 So grim I've told my audience many times, I watched 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:47.200 the Iranian Revolution unfold on a couch in the Western 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:50.360 White House with exiled Richard Nixon and Ray Price. We 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:52.800 were the writers. The former president was doing the book 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:56.040 The Real War, and we'd watch every afternoon because the 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:58.360 news would come on three hours earlier, and we saw 0:03:58.400 --> 0:04:01.600 the revolution unfold in real time. Where were you when 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:02.800 the revolution unfolded? 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:05.480 So I was a young boy. 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:07.960 I was born late nineteen seventy six, so I was 0:04:08.200 --> 0:04:10.520 just about two years old when the revolution was happening 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:15.320 in the state of Michigan. And you know, it obviously 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:19.360 impacted our lives in different ways. So much of our 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:23.080 extended family had to flee Iran. All of them had 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:27.400 ben and Iran, and our home in Michigan was kind 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:30.240 of the safe harbor for many of them. So they 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:33.440 fled Iran and they would come to stay with us 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:36.240 and Michigan for period until they were able to kind 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:41.000 of resettle elsewhere. And I think in my parents said 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:43.320 they probably thought maybe the one day they would go 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:46.640 back to Iran. But then when the revolution happened, you know, 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:50.320 we stayed in the United States, and my father was 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:53.559 someone who he was a neurologist, but he was someone 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:57.039 who we loved the United States, deeply patriotic American, but 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.320 he also loved his heritage and his culture. 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:03.480 That duality was very much part of our. 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:05.839 Childhood that we used to always tell us, you know, 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:07.599 you guys live in the best country in the world, 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.120 in the United States. But he was so proud of 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:16.120 his heritage and Persian poetry and culture, which is so 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:18.640 rich because it's you know, it's got twenty five hundred 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:20.040 plus years of history. 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:23.240 I've only had one other diaspora member on that hadn't 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:25.480 been Talablue from FDD. 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:27.320 I neglected to. 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:31.919 Ask him how varied is the Iranian diaspora, Does the 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:35.440 regime have any supporters within it, and has it become 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:39.080 increasingly militant about making a change in Iran? 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:45.080 The regime has virtually no support among the certainly the 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:47.040 diaspora in the United States. 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:49.360 When polling is done, I think you. 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.920 Probably see less than one percent support because if you're 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:55.560 a supporter of the regime, you know want you live 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:57.799 in Iran, you don't want to be in the United States. 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:03.200 And I think for many years there's been not really 0:06:03.240 --> 0:06:06.240 a diversity of opinion when it comes to people's desired 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:07.440 endgame in Iran. 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:09.960 Among the dads for Ironians, even. 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.760 Outside the United States, I would say, vast, vast majority 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:17.760 of your Oroonians want to see some form of secular democracy. 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:20.920 I think the debates have been. 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:24.679 About the means to get there, and whether, for example, 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:29.839 economic sanctions is a viable or useful tool to try 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:34.000 to reach that end of secular democracy, whether military action 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.880 is a means that people would accept to get to 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:38.600 that endgame. 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:39.719 And obviously the. 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:44.320 Last month the events in Iran, I think have really 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:47.960 altered that debate. Whereas one month ago, two months ago, 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:52.520 probably those who supported some type of US military action 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:56.120 inside Iran were in the minority, I would argue now, 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.960 and I haven't seen polling, so I'm not This isn't scientific, 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.719 but just anecdotal. My guess is that the majority of 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:06.920 those who are in the diaspora would like to see 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:10.320 President Trump make good on his work. President Trump threatened 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:14.000 on eight occasions that if you're on killed protesters, the 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:17.720 United States was ready to protect them and take action. 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:22.000 And obviously the Runan regime drove a giant truck through 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:27.560 President Trump's redline. They killed as many as thirty thousand protesters. 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:30.120 And so I think both with an Iran among the 0:07:30.160 --> 0:07:34.400 protesters and in the diaspora, I would say there's probably 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.640 a majority consensus, a majority support for some type of 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:38.600 US action. 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:42.960 Kareem, Were you shocked by the level of barbarity that 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:45.440 the regime employed in the last three weeks. I was 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:47.920 one of those eight occasions where the President said help 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:51.160 is on the way. Cape Marching takeover. He was very 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:52.800 adamant that we are going to help. So I think 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:55.040 we are going to help. But were you shocked by 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:59.640 the level to which violence they descended. It's just Bobby 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:03.880 are nineteen forty one match part thirty three thousand Jews 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:07.400 in Ukraine by the advancing Nazis. There hasn't been anything 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:08.960 like this since that. 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:11.080 You know. 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:15.680 Unfortunately, Hugh, I wasn't terribly shocked by the brutality of 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:18.560 the regime because at the end of the day, this 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:21.560 is a regime which has no friends in the world. 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:25.720 They have no great plan b. So, in contrast to 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:29.360 the SHAW, who didn't want to use a lot of 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:33.240 violence against people to stay in power, and both the 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:36.559 SHAW and all of its political and military elites, many 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:39.320 of them were educated in the United States and Europe. 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:42.360 They spoke foreign languages and so they could remake their 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:46.320 lives and Los Angeles or London. But the elites of 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:51.960 the Islamic Republic and Natola Harmony himself have provincial backgrounds. 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:55.800 They are not people who are are worldly. This is 0:08:55.840 --> 0:09:00.440 a regime which is virtually friendless. You know, it's long 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:03.840 time allies, like I said, regime in Syria, Maduro government 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:07.360 in Venezuela. Those guys have been deposed or they're out. 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:12.960 They have partnerships with countries like China and Russia, but 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:15.880 those are not secure partnerships, and so for that reason, 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:20.320 they have a killer be killed mentality. And unfortunately, I 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:24.000 wasn't terribly surprised that they were willing to employ that 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:27.160 kind of brutality to stay in power, because you know 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:30.040 what I say about this regime, and iula homony in 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:34.200 particular is that they're homicidal, but they're not suicidal. What's 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:37.680 paramount for them is to stay in power, and so 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:42.360 that applies here when I don't want to preempt your questions, 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:46.319 but you know, as they're facing potentially existential threat from 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:47.320 the United States right. 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:50.720 Now a minute and a half to break correct, what 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:54.240 are the spectrum of collapses underway for the people who 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:56.360 are actually living there. They're not part of the regime. 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:59.319 They're Persian, they're running just trying to get along. What 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:02.800 do they con with right now? One minute? 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:08.520 So this is a regime which is politically, economically, and 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:13.560 socially authoritarian. Every aspects of people's lives are disrupted because 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:18.800 they're living under a totalitarian dictatorship that polices their personal lives. 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:23.480 There's routine power outages, water shortages, and I think people 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:27.320 are just so exhausted from this reality. Is the most 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:30.920 sanctioned country in the world, and I think people are 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:36.440 desperate for a transition from an ideological regime to a 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:39.960 nation state, the government that prioritizes economic and national. 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:41.520 Interests before revolutionary ideology. 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:44.840 I will be right back with Kurama Japur of the 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:52.840 Carnegie Endowment right after these messages Police State, welcome back 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:55.520 in America. I'm Hugh you at Kareem zad Japur is 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:58.320 the equal of any Iranian analysts in the United States. 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:01.280 He is, of course, very very much in demand right now, 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:03.240 and I thank him for making time for the program 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.679 today on the Sale News channel on the Salem Radio Network. 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:10.839 Kareem can the regime? Is it possible it would just 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:15.160 collapse without outside pressure in the Pharma military force given 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:19.040 the spectrum of failure as we talked about, you. 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.760 Know, anything is possible with these dictatorships here. 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:23.119 There's an old line. 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:25.600 That all dictatorships look good until the last five minutes. 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:30.360 Any of these authoritarian regimes that look so strong before, 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.760 you know, collapse fairly abruptly. So it's my view that 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:39.360 even if the United States doesn't take military action, this 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:43.679 is a regime which is this current status quo in 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:44.800 Iran is not tenable. 0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:47.600 So there's one hundred and fifty thousand members of the 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:52.160 Iranian Revolutionary guardcore, tens of thousands more in the besiege. 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:58.679 They're paramilitary, para police thugs. What about the Iranian military 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:01.960 it's ordinary military. Is it radicalized as well, or is 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:06.400 it a military military like the American military. 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:10.160 So the military is a conscript military, so it reflects 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.440 the Iranian society. I have one kind of personal anecdote 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:15.640 about that. Years ago, when I was living in Tehran, 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:18.840 I went with a group of friends to the Caspian 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:24.000 Sea and I saw there was some military folks from 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:28.080 the regular army conscript army who were just kind of 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:33.440 walking down walking along the shore of the Caspian Sea. 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:34.920 And I initially kind of. 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:40.040 You know, when you see military folks, especially revolutionary guards 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.440 and passiege and you're on especially back then, you would 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:47.000 freeze and hesitate a little bit. And my friends kind 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.960 of continued as they were, including a young woman who 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:54.160 wasn't properly covering her hair, and I looked at them 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:55.840 and they said, no, don't worry about it. These guys 0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:58.719 are These guys are for the money that one of us, 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.880 you know, from the army. The way there is lonal 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:06.400 Republic has managed the regular army is that obviously the 0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:10.079 top commanders have been hand picked by the regime, so 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.760 up until now they've always been loyal. But the body 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:17.920 of that military are reflective of Iranian society at large, 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.600 and I would suspect for the most part, deeply unsatisfied 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.600 with the status quo, deeply unsatisfied with their lives. 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:27.480 So that takes me to my question about if there 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.360 is a military action, what should the United States target 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:33.720 and what shouldn't they target? And I'll follow naturally should 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.599 they leave the regular Iranian military alone? 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:41.840 Listen, I don't want to pretend to like I'm a 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:45.400 military expert, and I obviously haven't. What we've learned from 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.840 so many of US military actions over the last two 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.160 decades in the Middle East, including in the Iraq and Afghanistan, 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.000 so much of it is the execution, and to our credit, 0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:58.080 to our military's credit, they've done in an exceptionally good job, 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:00.080 oftentimes with execution. 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:02.240 But on first the question of. 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.000 Whether to target the regular army, it would seem to 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.240 me that would be a bad idea because, as I mentioned, 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:10.400 this is a conscript army for the most part and 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:14.600 reflective Iranian society, and you don't want anarchy, you don't 0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:18.080 want total disorder. We saw what happened in Iraq when 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:21.440 the Bathist army was disbanded, and I think everyone fears 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.760 that possibility of anarchy. So I think you would want 0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:26.920 the regular army to remain intact. 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:31.360 Would you want if the United States strikes, what would 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.320 you like them to strike in what order? I know 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:37.440 you're not a military expert, but everybody is talking about this. 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.920 Adaal Montgomery gave me a very long target list yesterday. 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:43.520 But you're the fellow who studies the country. What do 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.000 you think might bring regime collapse closer? 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:49.680 So let me say a couple of things here. 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:52.240 One is that one of the things I would have 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:55.920 liked to have seen happened already in fact early days 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:59.720 and the protests would have been to lift this iron 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:03.360 iron curtain that the regime has subjected people to. They've 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:08.359 cut off Internet, satellite connections, they've cut out cellular connections, 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:12.120 and connectivity of the country has been about one percent, 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.160 So they've slaughtered people in the dark. So to the 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:21.120 extent we have capabilities, whether it's kinetic or cyber capabilities, 0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:23.360 to tear down that digital. 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.320 Iron wall, that might be, that's very very important. 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:28.120 Even if that means, for example, because the regime has 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:33.240 their own intranet, their state television is functioning okay, their 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:37.480 officials are doing TV interviews broadcast to the United States, 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:41.080 and so in some ways, you know, one one option 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:44.240 is to take out their Internet systems, so then they 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:49.040 have to plug into to to the system that everyone 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:51.440 else uses. So that that's one thing that I would 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:55.280 have liked to have seen happen already. Second is, uh, 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:58.880 you know, the organs of repression in youron whether that's 0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:02.280 a command and could roll out posts of the revolutionary Guards. 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:05.840 I think that there's Raelis will certainly want to target 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:09.680 their their their missile stock well, because Iran is a 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:12.760 country which you really can't control its own skies right now, 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.440 and you would want to prevent them from from replenishing 0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:21.360 their missile capacity. Then we start to get into much 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:24.160 more sensitive questions and obviously the most sense of the 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:27.239 one arguably, I think that the current the Trump administration 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:31.360 is probably debating as we speak, is whether to target 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:35.000 the Supreme Leader. And you know, I've spoken to folks 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.360 who served and the first Trump administration who are still 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:40.880 close to this one, who believed that if military action 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.960 is taken, they are likely to target the Supreme Leader 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:49.320 eighty six year old al Alia comedy the Only Notes 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:52.520 of Caution, And you I think that you know, I 0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:54.920 don't want to claim to speak for people inside Iran, 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:59.280 but I think most protesters, those who took to the 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:03.520 streets again the regime, welcome some kind of military action. 0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:06.760 The only note of caution I'd make coquere is that 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:12.200 we know historically that when authoritarian regimes collapse or when 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.919 they transition, about four out of five times they unfortunately 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:17.520 don't transition to democracy. 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:19.359 About four out of five. 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:23.000 Times they transfer, they transition to another form of authoritarian regime. 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:25.480 Soviet Union is a good example of that. We went 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.679 from Soviet Union to Putin's Russia. The Iran in nineteen 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:30.440 seventy nine is a good example of that. We went 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:35.840 from the shaw to the Islamic Republic. So I'm not 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:41.000 making the argument that military action can transition Iran to Denmark. 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:43.320 But I think what people want to see, as I 0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:45.640 suggested from the asset, they want to see a government 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:49.240 that is a national government that puts the economic and 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:53.119 national interests of the nation first, not death to America 0:17:53.160 --> 0:17:56.480 and death to Israel. They want to an government whose 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:57.960 ethos is long livey wrong. 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:04.840 So, Sadia Poor, where do you place the probability now 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.040 of a military strike by the United States on Iran, 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:10.760 And do you have any fear that Iran will take 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:13.960 a first preemptive strike on, for example, Israel in the 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:17.000 Gulf oil fields, in the GCC countries. 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:22.119 No, I'm skeptical that they will try to take preemptive 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:25.200 action because, as I said, this is a regime which 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:26.840 is homicidal, not suicidal. 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:28.000 And right now the. 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:34.600 United States has convened some of the most elite facets 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:38.399 of the American military, whether that's warships or fighter jets, 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.000 and I'm skeptical that they will want to. 0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:46.639 Test President Trump. Given President Trump's history. 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:48.280 With your own you have to remember you, and you 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.720 remember it better than anyone. Twenty eighteen, Trump pulled out 0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:56.840 of the nuclear deal. Twenty twenty, assassinated busts some Sulaimani, 0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:00.359 you're on some military commander. Last summer, he dropped bunker 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:03.119 busters on Iran's nuclear program. 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:06.320 In each of these cases, people feared that it could 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:07.320 be World War three. 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:09.639 And in each of these cases, I think President Trump 0:19:09.640 --> 0:19:12.800 feels that his decisions were vindicated. So I don't think 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:16.719 he fears Iran, especially now that they don't control their 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.439 own skies. He thinks they're a paper tiger. So I 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:24.480 would argue that the likelihood of him acting again, I 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:26.600 would say is perhaps six seven out of ten. 0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:30.040 I'll be right back with Kareem zadupor don't go anywhere America. 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:32.800 Very rare you get an expert like this, So listen 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:34.159 very closely to what he has to say. 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:41.959 He stay tuned to the Huhwit Show. Welcome back in America. 0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:44.840 I'm Hugh Hewitt spending this hour with Kareem Masajapoor. 0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:46.719 He's the first generation of American. 0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:50.080 His parents emigrated from Iran ten years before the revolution, 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:52.800 and he knows the diaspora, and he studies this at 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:55.320 the Carnegie Endowment. He's much in demand right now, and 0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:57.920 I appreciate the time Kareem. 0:19:58.440 --> 0:20:01.119 Iran only hard tarreancy comes from oil. 0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:04.000 It is exported from cars Island and from two other 0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:07.000 oil terminals. There's a debate among people that I read 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:08.720 and listen to as to whether or not the United 0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:11.760 States and its allies ought to target those facilities in 0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:17.000 order to impoverish the IRGC and the Ayatola and his cronies. 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:18.480 What do you think. 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:23.080 My sense here is, and if the President has alluded 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:26.200 to this, that the kind of template or strategy they 0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.960 have in mind is similar to the Venezuela playbook, which 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:35.880 was essentially economic stranglehold, and you know, going after oil exports, 0:20:36.119 --> 0:20:41.120 going up to these ghost fleets of oil ships. And 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:45.000 my sense is that that is a more likely outcome 0:20:45.080 --> 0:20:52.160 than going after bombing Iranian oil installations or refiners, which 0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:58.000 you know, could cause real economic devastation to the population. 0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:02.800 But obviously in the Venezeul strategy that that strategy of 0:21:02.960 --> 0:21:07.119 you know, economic stranglehold was a prelude to what became 0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:11.399 a political decapitation. And I do think that, you know, 0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:14.840 based on what the president is said publicly about it. 0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:18.040 I told a homony, calling him a sick man. I 0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:22.480 told it, Homedy. We know from from you know, FBI 0:21:22.640 --> 0:21:27.080 statements that Iran has been trying to assassinate President Trump 0:21:27.200 --> 0:21:31.000 during the ten uere of President Biden. And so, you know, 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:34.920 my sense is that you will see more likely this 0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:40.240 kind of major economic stranglehold and the. 0:21:40.240 --> 0:21:41.560 Hopes that that will lead to. 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:46.800 Either Iran capitulating or some kind of action to force 0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:47.920 political change in your. 0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:51.960 Own now, kareem, after thirty to forty thousand people have 0:21:52.000 --> 0:21:55.760 been mowed down in the streets and the becasion. Revolutionary 0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:57.840 guard are going to the hospitals and shooting people and 0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:00.520 the bodies are left on the sidewalk with little we have. 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:02.000 Is horrific. That's gotten out. 0:22:02.800 --> 0:22:06.159 What the can Is it even fair to expect the 0:22:06.200 --> 0:22:09.680 Iranian straight to rise up a second time after that 0:22:09.800 --> 0:22:12.240 kind of a devastating blow from the regime. 0:22:15.560 --> 0:22:19.680 It's not likely in the immediate term, because people are 0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:22.680 in retreat, you know, they're just in shock. And as 0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:27.040 I mentioned from the outset, their communication ability is very limited, 0:22:27.080 --> 0:22:31.360 given how the regime has throddled the internet and satellite 0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:35.440 television and cellul their communication, and so I think they're 0:22:35.480 --> 0:22:38.840 in retreat. But as I point out to people here, 0:22:38.880 --> 0:22:43.320 the nineteen seventy nine revolution was a thirteen month process 0:22:43.440 --> 0:22:48.200 and essentially began in January seventy eight, and Jomini didn't 0:22:48.280 --> 0:22:51.520 arrive in Tehran until February nineteen seventy nine, and so 0:22:51.600 --> 0:22:55.359 we're only really one month into this process. And it's 0:22:55.400 --> 0:22:58.960 it's strongly my view that whatever the United States chooses 0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:02.800 to do, Iran is a country on the cusp of 0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:05.960 some kind of transformation, because, as I said, not only 0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:09.200 the society has realized, but even within the regime. They've 0:23:09.240 --> 0:23:14.120 realized that this status quo is not tenable. 0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:18.080 Krim, How are they even eating that commerce in and 0:23:18.119 --> 0:23:20.240 out of the country is down to nothing, The real 0:23:20.440 --> 0:23:23.440 is worth nothing. I don't know what the farmers are doing. 0:23:24.040 --> 0:23:26.159 Why are the reports you're able to get on the 0:23:26.240 --> 0:23:30.160 quality of life for the average lower to low class 0:23:30.160 --> 0:23:32.200 individual in terms of income? 0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:33.520 It must be horrific. 0:23:35.240 --> 0:23:39.040 It is horrific because the middle class has been totally decimated. 0:23:39.080 --> 0:23:42.639 The currency has been totally decimated, and it's there's no 0:23:42.800 --> 0:23:46.600 rock bottom. It keeps sinking. I'm sure others have pointed out, 0:23:46.680 --> 0:23:50.600 and you show that the Iranian currency visa VI the 0:23:50.680 --> 0:23:54.000 US dollar has depreciated something like ninety nine point nine 0:23:54.080 --> 0:23:57.400 percent from nineteen seventy nine to the present. So people 0:23:57.480 --> 0:24:03.600 are scraping to get by. And what we oftentimes see, Hugh, 0:24:04.040 --> 0:24:07.600 is only what's happening in Tehran. But you know, perhaps 0:24:07.840 --> 0:24:11.399 only a quarter or so of the runnings live in 0:24:11.720 --> 0:24:15.800 the capitol, and I think both the economic devastation and 0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:19.520 the brutality is much greater in the places that we 0:24:20.000 --> 0:24:22.879 don't see with the same frequency as we see Tehran. 0:24:23.280 --> 0:24:25.520 Last question before this break, and then one more question. 0:24:25.800 --> 0:24:28.240 Do the people believe any of the theology that the 0:24:28.280 --> 0:24:32.359 Iatolas put forward Koreem or have they just view it 0:24:32.359 --> 0:24:33.720 as words. 0:24:35.080 --> 0:24:35.240 You know. 0:24:35.320 --> 0:24:38.960 I think it's very similar to late eighties Soviet Union, 0:24:39.119 --> 0:24:42.919 in which not only within the society but within the regime, 0:24:43.160 --> 0:24:46.120 you have very few true believers left. 0:24:45.880 --> 0:24:46.439 In the system. 0:24:46.520 --> 0:24:48.280 In fact, a friend of mine who was a professor 0:24:48.280 --> 0:24:51.040 in Tehron said, at the beginning of the revolution, the 0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:55.040 regime was eighty percent idiologues and twenty percent Charlatans, and 0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:58.439 now it's the reverse. Only perhaps even within the regime 0:24:58.480 --> 0:25:01.400 only twenty percent true believers. So in society, I would 0:25:01.400 --> 0:25:02.399 say it's even less to that. 0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:06.080 I'll be back with one more segment with Kareem Sajapur. 0:25:06.280 --> 0:25:09.720 You can follow them on actually at k Sajipur, and 0:25:09.760 --> 0:25:11.639 you can read them in the Atlantic. You've got a 0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:14.280 great new piece in the current Atlantic as well as 0:25:14.320 --> 0:25:20.280 at the Karnegie Endowment. Stay tuned, Welcome back in America. 0:25:20.359 --> 0:25:21.159 I'm hughe Hewett. 0:25:21.720 --> 0:25:24.000 I wanted to save the most delicate issue for the 0:25:24.080 --> 0:25:26.720 last Kareem, which is the role of Israel in anycoming 0:25:26.880 --> 0:25:30.560 conflict between the United States and Iran National Security advisor 0:25:30.600 --> 0:25:33.320 the equivalent of National Security advisor in Iran said, if 0:25:33.359 --> 0:25:36.320 there's any conflict with the United States, we're throwing everything 0:25:36.359 --> 0:25:39.600 we got at Israel. What do you expect their role 0:25:39.640 --> 0:25:41.320 to be? What do you want their role to be? 0:25:41.400 --> 0:25:44.760 Does their participation make it more or less difficult to 0:25:44.760 --> 0:25:45.640 topple the regime? 0:25:47.800 --> 0:25:51.919 Well, Israel obviously showed over the last couple of years 0:25:51.920 --> 0:25:57.000 that militarily they're far superior to Iran, even though Iran 0:25:57.119 --> 0:26:00.359 is seventy five times larger as a nation state. 0:26:00.440 --> 0:26:03.440 And so it was Israel which paved. 0:26:03.119 --> 0:26:05.600 The way for the United States to take action because 0:26:05.600 --> 0:26:08.800 they took out Iran's air defenses. And going back to 0:26:08.840 --> 0:26:12.480 what I said earlier, Hugh about restoring connectivity in Iran, 0:26:12.600 --> 0:26:17.120 you know, if Israel, which has a very sophisticated cyber capability, 0:26:17.840 --> 0:26:21.800 but Israel was able to help restore connectivity within Iran, 0:26:22.280 --> 0:26:25.200 I think it's something that would be greatly appreciated. 0:26:25.240 --> 0:26:26.040 But they have. 0:26:27.480 --> 0:26:29.919 Because they're within missile range of Iran and it's a 0:26:29.960 --> 0:26:33.080 much smaller country, things are much more delicate for them. 0:26:33.280 --> 0:26:36.639 And so that's why that's among the many reasons why 0:26:37.480 --> 0:26:40.520 you have a huge US presence now in the region 0:26:41.000 --> 0:26:44.760 and everyone is on alert because ultimately Iranian missiles are 0:26:44.760 --> 0:26:47.879 not going to reach the US home land, but they 0:26:47.880 --> 0:26:50.520 could indeed go after Israel and cause some real damage. 0:26:50.680 --> 0:26:53.600 So kareem to wrap everybody in DC talks to you 0:26:53.640 --> 0:26:56.640 about this. So I'm just curious, off the record, what 0:26:56.720 --> 0:26:58.960 did the other countries in the region not named Israel 0:26:59.000 --> 0:27:02.920 in the United States, Key, Saudi Arabia, the United Ara 0:27:03.000 --> 0:27:05.600 memorates got her. What do they want to see happen? 0:27:05.680 --> 0:27:07.840 Do they want this regime to stay there? It seems 0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:10.920 like it's an endless source of woes for a region 0:27:10.960 --> 0:27:12.240 that ought to be booming. 0:27:14.880 --> 0:27:18.679 You know, I think the only country, major country in 0:27:18.720 --> 0:27:22.040 the world which benefits from keeping the is Lomar Republic 0:27:22.080 --> 0:27:26.080 iround is Russia because as long as Iran is isolated, 0:27:26.119 --> 0:27:29.879 it can't exploit its vast natural gas and oil reserves. 0:27:30.080 --> 0:27:32.600 It doesn't compete with Russia as it should in global 0:27:32.680 --> 0:27:34.680 energy markets. It's a thorn in the society of the 0:27:34.760 --> 0:27:38.600 United States. It can't compete with Russia and its historic 0:27:38.640 --> 0:27:42.760 sphere of influence Central Asia. Obviously, you know, smaller countries 0:27:42.800 --> 0:27:44.680 like North Korea like to keep it around as well, 0:27:44.720 --> 0:27:47.800 but the regional countries, I don't think any of them 0:27:48.560 --> 0:27:51.959 like the status quo of a country on their border 0:27:52.040 --> 0:27:56.000 that is so deeply ideological and destabilizing. But a lot 0:27:56.040 --> 0:27:59.399 of them, for various reasons, worry about conflict. They worry 0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:02.840 that they be retaliated against in the case of our 0:28:02.920 --> 0:28:06.560 golf partners in said Arabia and the UE, the country 0:28:06.640 --> 0:28:10.520 like Turkey worries about chaos that could spill over refugees 0:28:10.560 --> 0:28:15.280 into their territory. So everyone is watching this very carefully. 0:28:15.320 --> 0:28:18.080 But I think most of those regional countries, if they 0:28:18.080 --> 0:28:21.480 could push a button and have a clean transition to 0:28:22.119 --> 0:28:25.760 a nationalist government in Iran rather than an ideological government 0:28:25.760 --> 0:28:27.920 in Iran, I think the vast majority of them would 0:28:27.920 --> 0:28:28.119 do that. 0:28:28.440 --> 0:28:31.640 And is there any worry on your part that Iran 0:28:31.760 --> 0:28:33.959 is play sleeper shelves In the United States? They sent 0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:36.440 people to assassinate people here before. They've tried to kill 0:28:36.480 --> 0:28:39.720 President Trump. We know that, But what about a widespread 0:28:40.040 --> 0:28:42.200 has the law or related network. 0:28:42.280 --> 0:28:43.480 Have you got concerns there? 0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:47.520 I'm not too worried about that in the United States. 0:28:48.160 --> 0:28:51.920 In Europe they have carried out operations and usually here 0:28:52.560 --> 0:28:55.480 it's not Iranian nationals that are doing that. They pay 0:28:55.960 --> 0:29:01.440 European Russian criminal gangs or Pakistan any radicals to carry 0:29:01.440 --> 0:29:06.040 out these activities. So that is, you know, certainly a possibility, 0:29:06.160 --> 0:29:09.760 but at the moment, you know, I think that given 0:29:10.040 --> 0:29:13.200 how the news is tightening around their neck, and as 0:29:13.240 --> 0:29:16.480 you mentioned from the outset, even the Europeans that prescribe 0:29:16.520 --> 0:29:21.240 them their Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, I don't 0:29:21.240 --> 0:29:23.720 think the first instinct is to want to create even 0:29:23.720 --> 0:29:24.880 more problems for themselves. 0:29:25.280 --> 0:29:27.880 Very last question, what is the ceiling? We know it's 0:29:27.960 --> 0:29:30.680 hit rock bottom and they keep digging a hole into 0:29:30.680 --> 0:29:33.520 which they can fall off the floor. What's the ceiling 0:29:33.640 --> 0:29:36.480 for Iran if they were run by even a minimally 0:29:36.520 --> 0:29:38.240 competent nationalist government. 0:29:39.880 --> 0:29:43.160 That's a wonderful question, and it is something which I 0:29:43.160 --> 0:29:46.240 think is obviously in the US national interest. Kissinger once 0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:48.560 said there are few nations in the world with whom 0:29:48.560 --> 0:29:51.520 in the United States, and the United States has more common 0:29:51.560 --> 0:29:54.520 interests and less reason to world than Iran. And it's 0:29:54.560 --> 0:29:58.280 my view that given Iran's enormous human capital, it's enormous 0:29:58.360 --> 0:30:02.200 natural resources, it's rich history, this should be a G 0:30:02.320 --> 0:30:05.080 twenty nation. It should be you know, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, 0:30:05.160 --> 0:30:08.320 ar G twenty nations. Iran should be in that category. 0:30:08.360 --> 0:30:11.880 You know, in nineteen seventy eight q Iran's GDP was 0:30:11.880 --> 0:30:15.200 are on the same level as Spain in South Korea. 0:30:15.360 --> 0:30:17.720 You see where those countries are now and where Iran 0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:20.200 is now, and it just shows you what a profound 0:30:20.200 --> 0:30:23.440 difference leadership makes. And I do believe that this country, 0:30:23.960 --> 0:30:27.720 once it has proper leadership, it could have one of 0:30:27.760 --> 0:30:30.320 the highest growth rates in the coming years. 0:30:30.800 --> 0:30:35.080 And I have bonus question does the United Nations contribute 0:30:35.240 --> 0:30:41.120 anything to Iran? Are they are they protecting world historic sites? 0:30:41.160 --> 0:30:43.400 Are they doing any kind of relief? Have they been 0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:44.800 any help at all in Iran? 0:30:47.400 --> 0:30:50.160 Not terribly when it comes to the politics. You know, 0:30:50.640 --> 0:30:53.160 Uron used to have a large Afghan refugee presence and 0:30:53.200 --> 0:30:56.080 so United Nations UNHCR was helpful there. And I do 0:30:56.120 --> 0:30:57.680 want to give a shout out to the new head 0:30:57.720 --> 0:31:01.320 of UNHCR, the former president of Rock But I'msali was 0:31:01.800 --> 0:31:07.360 a brilliant and wonderful guy. But to your question, National 0:31:07.400 --> 0:31:11.760 Geographic Magazine once called Iran the world's first superpower, and 0:31:11.800 --> 0:31:16.440 so there are enormous, amazing historic sites in Iran and 0:31:16.520 --> 0:31:19.600 it will be hopefully one day soon a great destination 0:31:19.760 --> 0:31:22.280 for Western and American tourists. 0:31:22.480 --> 0:31:25.040 I hope you are right, Kareem Sajipor. Thank you for 0:31:25.120 --> 0:31:28.360 joining me for this extended period of time. I'll continue 0:31:28.400 --> 0:31:30.479 to read and follow you on axtly. You can do that, 0:31:30.560 --> 0:31:34.640 by the way, America at k Sajipor you cannot miss it. 0:31:34.680 --> 0:31:36.920 And his new article in the Atlantic is not to 0:31:36.920 --> 0:31:39.360 be missed as well. One of those experts that you 0:31:39.400 --> 0:31:42.720 can really trust on everything having to do with Iran. 0:31:43.200 --> 0:31:50.760 Thank you, Kareem. Welcome back in America. I'm Hugh Hewitt. 0:31:50.920 --> 0:31:54.680 Lucas Tomlinson is one of the best war correspondents I know. 0:31:54.840 --> 0:31:57.680 You go abroad wherever Fox News send him. Seen him 0:31:57.680 --> 0:31:59.800 a lot in Israel. Recently, though, I was on this 0:32:00.600 --> 0:32:03.240 and he beamed in from Greenland, and I thought to myself, 0:32:03.240 --> 0:32:06.320 I've never had a guest from Greenland before. He's back, Lucas, 0:32:06.360 --> 0:32:08.920 welcome to the u UH Show. When were you in 0:32:08.960 --> 0:32:11.080 Greenland and what did you find out when you were there? 0:32:12.520 --> 0:32:14.760 Well, Hugh, thanks for having me. I just got back 0:32:14.840 --> 0:32:17.680 last night. I spent a week on the ground in 0:32:17.720 --> 0:32:21.360 Greenland when things were getting a little serious about people 0:32:21.400 --> 0:32:25.720 thinking that President Trump might use military means to take Greenland. 0:32:25.760 --> 0:32:28.680 Of course, At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President 0:32:28.720 --> 0:32:31.000 Trump walked that back, said he has no intention of 0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:36.280 using force, but the Danish government to controls Greenland, they 0:32:36.280 --> 0:32:38.280 were a little nervous about it. You know, they spend 0:32:38.320 --> 0:32:43.200 about six hundred million dollars a year on Greenland territory 0:32:43.280 --> 0:32:46.320 that they have possessed. It's been in the Danish realm 0:32:46.360 --> 0:32:50.200 since the eighteenth century. Boat's notable Hugh Denmark has a 0:32:50.200 --> 0:32:53.120 population of just six million people. That's about twice the 0:32:53.160 --> 0:32:57.480 population of Brooklyn. To control an area of Greenland that 0:32:57.560 --> 0:32:59.640 is three times the size of Texas, he had a 0:32:59.680 --> 0:33:02.800 pop elation that could fit into the seats of any 0:33:02.920 --> 0:33:06.760 NFL stadium, just fifty seven thousand people. It's very strategic. 0:33:06.760 --> 0:33:09.360 You've been hearing President Trump many others talk about the 0:33:09.360 --> 0:33:12.320 importance of the Arctic. The President wants to deploy the 0:33:12.360 --> 0:33:15.959 Golden Dome there. As you know right now, US missile 0:33:15.960 --> 0:33:21.000 defense it's pretty limited. Just forty four interceptors in Fork Greally, Alaska, 0:33:21.040 --> 0:33:24.960 and just four interceptor missiles Vanderberg Space four space in 0:33:25.000 --> 0:33:27.640 Santa Barbara, California. Maybe not far from where you are 0:33:27.720 --> 0:33:32.000 right now. That's just an intercept a rogue ballistic missile 0:33:32.080 --> 0:33:36.560 from Iran or North Korea. There's no system in place 0:33:36.640 --> 0:33:39.480 to be able to handle a large scale nuclear missiles 0:33:39.480 --> 0:33:43.120 straight from Russia China. Also, what missile defense experts tell 0:33:43.160 --> 0:33:45.360 me with Golden Dome is that other targets would be 0:33:45.360 --> 0:33:49.920 in play, hypersonic missiles, drones, cruise missiles. That is why 0:33:50.000 --> 0:33:52.520 President Trump wants to deploy the Golden Dome there. Of course, 0:33:52.600 --> 0:33:54.040 when you're at the top of the Earth above the 0:33:54.160 --> 0:33:57.560 Arctic Circle, it's two thirds of Greenland is it's a 0:33:57.640 --> 0:34:01.240 much shorter distance from Russia and to any targets in 0:34:01.280 --> 0:34:03.640 the United States. So that's why President Trump thinks Greenland 0:34:04.240 --> 0:34:06.960 is so important and why he wants to expand the 0:34:07.040 --> 0:34:10.040 US military presidence there. Today, there's less than two hundred 0:34:10.040 --> 0:34:14.480 troops at one single US Space Force space in Patufic 0:34:14.600 --> 0:34:16.640 that was about nine or and thirty miles north of 0:34:16.680 --> 0:34:19.279 the capital of Nuke where I was. It's the same 0:34:19.320 --> 0:34:21.640 distance from la to Seattle View. 0:34:22.040 --> 0:34:25.080 Now, Lucas you were in Greenland for a week, I 0:34:25.160 --> 0:34:26.719 assume you got to talk to a lot of the 0:34:27.080 --> 0:34:31.000 native Greenland theres more than ninety percent of Greenlanders are anyway, 0:34:31.520 --> 0:34:31.879 What do. 0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:32.879 They think about that? 0:34:32.920 --> 0:34:35.719 I'm sure you probably talked all fifty seven thousand in 0:34:35.760 --> 0:34:36.120 a week. 0:34:36.320 --> 0:34:37.440 What do they think about this? 0:34:39.160 --> 0:34:41.840 A lot of the Inuits, the natives, even many of 0:34:41.880 --> 0:34:45.040 the Danes I spoke to Hugh, they just want to 0:34:45.080 --> 0:34:48.680 be left alone. Now, a majority of Greenlanders, Greenlanders as 0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:51.120 they refer to themselves, they want to be left alone. 0:34:51.160 --> 0:34:53.560 They do want to be independent, though they are not 0:34:54.200 --> 0:34:57.800 wild about you know the Danes who they live under. 0:34:58.120 --> 0:35:00.400 You know the Danes. You know, it's a welfare state. 0:35:00.400 --> 0:35:03.520 They spend about six hundred million dollars US a year 0:35:03.640 --> 0:35:07.080 for Greenland to take care of the education, uh, you know, 0:35:07.200 --> 0:35:11.720 police hospitals. It's about twenty percent of their GDP comes 0:35:11.719 --> 0:35:14.640 from Denmark. But many of the people I spoke to 0:35:15.520 --> 0:35:17.319 not only they want to be independent, they really want 0:35:17.360 --> 0:35:18.080 to be left alone. 0:35:18.080 --> 0:35:18.239 There. 0:35:18.360 --> 0:35:20.360 They were not used to the media attention, as you 0:35:20.400 --> 0:35:24.080 can imagine. They're really it's a a territory of hunters 0:35:24.080 --> 0:35:28.440 and gatherers. I mean they hunt polar bear seals. You know, 0:35:28.760 --> 0:35:31.000 muskox might have to google that one, and. 0:35:31.160 --> 0:35:32.759 I have no idea what that is. 0:35:34.200 --> 0:35:39.799 It's a giant ox, big hairy beast in essence, and 0:35:39.840 --> 0:35:43.640 I actually enjoyed some reindeer meat muskos. I ate raw 0:35:43.760 --> 0:35:45.160 seal liver at a market. 0:35:46.120 --> 0:35:50.399 If you're wondering, as he correspondent, look, by the way, 0:35:50.760 --> 0:35:51.760 do they have a costco? 0:35:53.480 --> 0:35:54.960 No costco in Greenland? 0:35:55.080 --> 0:35:56.360 How about job. 0:35:57.680 --> 0:36:01.480 No trader Joe's. I'm not going to local little grocery 0:36:01.480 --> 0:36:03.560 stores of the whale. I had a little bit of 0:36:03.560 --> 0:36:06.960 whale the norwall, a popular delicacy up there to you. 0:36:07.280 --> 0:36:08.880 Yeah, you don't want to be around when a narwal 0:36:09.000 --> 0:36:11.120 comes through the ice. Tell me, look at at least 0:36:11.120 --> 0:36:13.560 I read. That's what I read an endurance, the book 0:36:13.560 --> 0:36:17.799 about a Shackles Shackleton. Yeah, tell me about how you 0:36:17.840 --> 0:36:20.120 were received your big time. I don't know if they 0:36:20.120 --> 0:36:21.959 get cable. I don't know if they watch Fox News. 0:36:21.960 --> 0:36:24.040 They've seen you in Israel when the bombs are coming down? 0:36:24.400 --> 0:36:25.319 Did they know who you are? 0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:28.399 Do they watch Fox News? 0:36:28.440 --> 0:36:29.120 Some dude? 0:36:29.120 --> 0:36:32.520 But I was notable that when the Greenland's Prime minister 0:36:32.600 --> 0:36:35.680 held a press conference, he was almost doing the Joe 0:36:35.719 --> 0:36:38.719 Biden routine. He was going down a prepared list. I 0:36:38.800 --> 0:36:41.759 noticed CNN got the first question and then he was 0:36:41.800 --> 0:36:43.719 going on and on down his list. I'm like, wait 0:36:43.760 --> 0:36:45.800 a minute, I traveled all the way here from Washington. 0:36:45.880 --> 0:36:48.240 I'm getting a question at this press conference. I moved 0:36:48.280 --> 0:36:50.839 my seat and he looked up at one point and 0:36:50.880 --> 0:36:52.840 called to me, which was very nice. I saw I 0:36:52.880 --> 0:36:55.640 could ask him if you would welcome who white? Question 0:36:55.680 --> 0:36:58.840 should welcome a great Yeah? My question was, would you 0:36:58.920 --> 0:37:01.959 welcome a greater with the military presence in Greenland? Would 0:37:01.960 --> 0:37:04.960 you welcome the Golden Dome? As you can imagine. A 0:37:05.040 --> 0:37:08.440 very diplomatic answer, he said, it's discussions he'd love to have. 0:37:08.520 --> 0:37:10.800 He didn't rule it out. You know, it's notable. A 0:37:10.920 --> 0:37:15.040 nineteen fifty one treaty between then President Truman and Denmark says, 0:37:15.120 --> 0:37:17.239 you know, the US military can have a presence, there's 0:37:17.239 --> 0:37:19.040 no limit on that. At the height of the Cold 0:37:19.040 --> 0:37:23.600 War Queue there were ten thousand US troops stationed in Greenland. 0:37:23.600 --> 0:37:25.080 And I don't know if you ever heard of Project 0:37:25.160 --> 0:37:28.040 Ice Swarm, but it was a plan to bury thousands 0:37:28.040 --> 0:37:30.840 of nuclear missiles under the ice in Greenland. It was 0:37:30.920 --> 0:37:34.200 never completed, but it was worked on for years. 0:37:34.560 --> 0:37:37.200 That's doctor Strange love stuff tell me. 0:37:37.920 --> 0:37:41.440 Is the military base that has ten thousand people still 0:37:41.480 --> 0:37:44.200 got the barracks that they still have the infrastructure or 0:37:44.320 --> 0:37:47.280 all the pipes frozen and burst. 0:37:47.440 --> 0:37:50.640 Pipes frozen in burst. There's ten thousand troops. At the 0:37:50.680 --> 0:37:53.280 height of the Cold War was spread out over seventeen bases. 0:37:53.280 --> 0:37:56.799 Today Q there's just one. It's that Betuf Space Force 0:37:56.840 --> 0:37:59.560 Space in the far north, the high north of Greenland. 0:38:00.000 --> 0:38:02.640 How many how many towns of size do they have? 0:38:02.880 --> 0:38:05.600 Lucas and I consider a town to be five thousand 0:38:05.640 --> 0:38:07.040 to ten thousand people. 0:38:08.200 --> 0:38:12.320 Just a handful nuke is about thirty thousand residents. About 0:38:12.600 --> 0:38:16.040 half the territory lives in the capital. They refer to 0:38:16.200 --> 0:38:20.000 settlements as anything, you know, eight hundred and fifty or less. 0:38:20.080 --> 0:38:22.359 They have dozens of those, but they do not have 0:38:22.480 --> 0:38:25.040 many big cities. You can imagine. In fact, some of 0:38:25.040 --> 0:38:28.120 the settlements to the north they're only supplied, you know, 0:38:28.280 --> 0:38:30.520 a few times a year. And you can imagine anything 0:38:30.560 --> 0:38:33.640 even coming into the capital has to come aboard ship. 0:38:33.760 --> 0:38:35.719 Very little come from the. 0:38:35.640 --> 0:38:36.280 Air, of course. 0:38:36.840 --> 0:38:42.000 Looks, have you packed your bags for israel I? 0:38:42.200 --> 0:38:42.640 Have you know? 0:38:42.719 --> 0:38:45.640 I told my boss, my bureau chief, that I'm ready 0:38:45.640 --> 0:38:47.319 to deploy to the Middle East. He goes, why don't 0:38:47.320 --> 0:38:49.439 you get back from Greenland first? And then we'll talk. 0:38:49.840 --> 0:38:52.120 But would it just be Israel or would you possibly 0:38:52.160 --> 0:38:54.560 go to uae Bahrain cut her. Do you have any 0:38:54.560 --> 0:38:55.440 idea where you'd be. 0:38:55.960 --> 0:38:58.560 I would prefer, you know, Israel would be great, of course, 0:38:58.600 --> 0:39:00.799 I would prefer to the Middle East, because if we 0:39:00.880 --> 0:39:03.799 do see action in Iran and the government where to 0:39:03.800 --> 0:39:05.319 break down, it might be a good time to get 0:39:05.320 --> 0:39:06.040 into the country. 0:39:07.840 --> 0:39:09.879 I'm glad you're a young man. Might be a good 0:39:09.920 --> 0:39:11.239 time to be careful of. 0:39:11.320 --> 0:39:14.040 Lucas Tomlinson, you're a friend and it's you're very kind 0:39:14.040 --> 0:39:14.840 to come on and give. 0:39:14.760 --> 0:39:16.640 Us the first person report from Greenland. 0:39:17.160 --> 0:39:21.040 Lucas Tomlinson, you can find him on X I think 0:39:21.040 --> 0:39:23.359 if Lucas Fox News on X. 0:39:23.680 --> 0:39:25.879 Thank you, Lucas. I'll be right back in America State Tune. 0:39:25.880 --> 0:39:28.280 I'm glad to kick it off with former United States 0:39:28.280 --> 0:39:31.759 Senator Jim Talent. He represented the state of Missouri. He's 0:39:31.760 --> 0:39:34.200 now a senior Fellow at the Reagan Institute for the 0:39:34.239 --> 0:39:38.480 Study of Peace through Strength. Senator Talent, we were talking 0:39:38.520 --> 0:39:41.920 off there about Admiral Montgomery yesterday, who was fabulous. But 0:39:42.080 --> 0:39:44.319 you're you've been in the defense business as long as 0:39:44.360 --> 0:39:46.680 he has. Do you think we are on the cusp 0:39:46.840 --> 0:39:49.840 of a very violent war. 0:39:52.719 --> 0:39:55.840 Well, I wouldn't call him. I mean all war is violent. 0:39:56.040 --> 0:39:59.200 I think I think we're we're on the cusp of 0:39:59.239 --> 0:40:04.560 a campaign that will be a much more campaign sustained 0:40:04.600 --> 0:40:06.879 campaign than we had to do to take out their 0:40:06.960 --> 0:40:08.720 nuclear arsenal. 0:40:09.360 --> 0:40:10.240 I heard Mark. 0:40:10.120 --> 0:40:13.480 Say ten to twelve days, which to me seems about right, 0:40:13.960 --> 0:40:15.960 because there's two objectives here. 0:40:16.000 --> 0:40:18.319 The first is to enforce. 0:40:18.040 --> 0:40:20.840 Our red line and thereby enhance our credibility in the 0:40:20.840 --> 0:40:23.520 Middle East and around the world. President's going to do 0:40:23.600 --> 0:40:26.120 that beyond a shadow of it out. The second is 0:40:26.160 --> 0:40:30.320 to further degrade Iran's ability to aggress against its neighbors 0:40:30.360 --> 0:40:34.879 and destabilize the region, which is against our national interest. Again, 0:40:34.880 --> 0:40:38.040 if you read the national security strategy, so the logical 0:40:38.080 --> 0:40:42.160 thing to take out is their missile capabilities and the 0:40:42.239 --> 0:40:44.759 anti air systems that protect them to the extent those 0:40:44.800 --> 0:40:47.480 are still left. And in order to do that job, well, 0:40:48.680 --> 0:40:50.120 it takes a lot of soorties. 0:40:50.640 --> 0:40:51.960 You're not going to do that today. 0:40:52.640 --> 0:40:56.000 So one interesting question which Mark talked about is whether 0:40:56.000 --> 0:40:58.160 the Israelis are going to join in. I would love 0:40:58.200 --> 0:41:01.279 to be a fly on the wall when Trump is 0:41:01.320 --> 0:41:02.799 talking with Netniew about that. 0:41:03.480 --> 0:41:06.480 What do you think the preference of the president is. 0:41:06.560 --> 0:41:09.040 I think he would prefer that they not, But I 0:41:09.040 --> 0:41:11.399 don't think he's going to hold him back if one 0:41:11.480 --> 0:41:12.919 missile is shot at. 0:41:12.840 --> 0:41:15.600 Them, right. 0:41:15.840 --> 0:41:20.080 Look you well, with regard to the Israelis, it's a 0:41:20.120 --> 0:41:25.200 complicated question. I mean because Israel has moved from a 0:41:25.280 --> 0:41:29.160 containment policy in the region to a preemption policy in 0:41:29.200 --> 0:41:32.720 the region, and Netyaho has been very, very decisive about 0:41:32.760 --> 0:41:35.160 doing that, and I think he's got the Israeli people 0:41:35.400 --> 0:41:39.960 behind him, so the Israelis can send the message here too. 0:41:40.080 --> 0:41:42.160 I mean, in the past they've tried to do hands 0:41:42.200 --> 0:41:45.439 off on this sort of thing because they felt more 0:41:45.560 --> 0:41:48.279 vulnerable in the region. If he joins in, I think 0:41:48.280 --> 0:41:50.600 it's a good way of sending the message. Look, we're 0:41:50.600 --> 0:41:52.400 the hedge amount of the region and we're going to 0:41:52.440 --> 0:41:55.040 act like it when our security is at stake. So 0:41:55.160 --> 0:41:57.280 I think they ought to do it. I think Admiral 0:41:57.320 --> 0:41:59.440 Montgomery was right go ahead and join in. 0:42:00.120 --> 0:42:03.040 I was with a client back in my law practice 0:42:03.120 --> 0:42:07.040 days in Nevada, big swinger, Jewish man, big sport of Israel. 0:42:07.440 --> 0:42:10.880 When Israel did not respond to Saddam's scuds, and he 0:42:10.880 --> 0:42:13.120 couldn't believe it. I was in his office. He could 0:42:13.160 --> 0:42:15.680 not believe that they were not responding. But of course 0:42:15.719 --> 0:42:18.520 Secretary Baker and George H. W. Bush asked them not 0:42:18.600 --> 0:42:21.680 to respond. I don't think Donald Trump's in the business 0:42:21.760 --> 0:42:24.759 of asking people not to respond if they want to. 0:42:26.520 --> 0:42:31.880 And I think President Trump adjusts better to changes in 0:42:32.320 --> 0:42:36.240 a strategic in strategic positioning. In other words, in the past, 0:42:36.280 --> 0:42:41.600 Israel has acted sometimes like they can't act, they can't 0:42:41.640 --> 0:42:44.759 be a normal do what a normal nation would do 0:42:44.800 --> 0:42:48.160 in a normal situation, Okay, which is to take advantage 0:42:48.200 --> 0:42:52.400 of this to attack and degrade their chief aggressor. I 0:42:52.440 --> 0:42:54.480 think the Israelis are done with that, and I think 0:42:54.560 --> 0:42:58.640 Trump is fine with it. Trump is not burdened by 0:42:58.920 --> 0:43:01.919 thirty or forty years of assumptions about the Middle East. 0:43:02.000 --> 0:43:05.160 I mean, he's rethinking the region, He's rethought it, and 0:43:05.239 --> 0:43:07.000 I just think, to look, anybody. 0:43:06.520 --> 0:43:09.480 Else in Israel's position, with Israel's. 0:43:08.960 --> 0:43:13.080 Power, would join us in this attack, and so I'd 0:43:13.120 --> 0:43:14.200 like to see him do it now. 0:43:14.520 --> 0:43:15.440 Again, there are a. 0:43:15.440 --> 0:43:17.600 Whole lot of factors working that you and I don't 0:43:17.640 --> 0:43:21.520 know about, So maybe they won't. But we're certainly going 0:43:21.600 --> 0:43:24.680 to use their intel, particularly if we go after command 0:43:24.680 --> 0:43:27.319 and control with the IRGC, They're going to tell us 0:43:27.360 --> 0:43:28.200 where everybody is. 0:43:28.360 --> 0:43:32.120 Would you expect any of the Golf Coordinating Council countries 0:43:32.120 --> 0:43:32.759 to join in? 0:43:35.000 --> 0:43:41.279 No, accepted defensively. When the Iranians respond and you, I 0:43:41.320 --> 0:43:44.680 would reassure people, we're very good at this kind of 0:43:44.760 --> 0:43:48.040 mission when we have time to build up, to plan, 0:43:48.640 --> 0:43:52.440 and when the environment is basically noncompetitive. I mean, this 0:43:52.560 --> 0:43:56.239 is not the South China Sea right where there are 0:43:56.640 --> 0:44:00.480 thousands and thousands and thousands of anti ship cruise of 0:44:00.480 --> 0:44:03.840 ballistic missiles along the coast of China. This is a 0:44:03.880 --> 0:44:07.920 basically uncompetitive environment. We're good at this, and so I'm 0:44:07.960 --> 0:44:11.360 not saying that we can't take any casualties, but I 0:44:11.480 --> 0:44:15.000 feel pretty confident in our force protection package. 0:44:15.080 --> 0:44:16.759 Jim, you and I are the same as here. I 0:44:16.760 --> 0:44:19.560 think you can remember the build up to the nineteen 0:44:19.600 --> 0:44:22.399 ninety one war, which kicked off I think on March 0:44:22.480 --> 0:44:26.480 one or thereabouts nineteen ninety one, and the projections of 0:44:26.520 --> 0:44:29.560 the dead on our team on our side was going 0:44:29.600 --> 0:44:32.760 to be in the five digits and people were horrified 0:44:32.760 --> 0:44:34.640 at that, but it was going to be five digits. 0:44:35.080 --> 0:44:38.040 Men lost their lives, but it was in the hundreds. 0:44:38.080 --> 0:44:40.360 It might not even been over one hundred. I can't remember. 0:44:41.520 --> 0:44:45.440 In the Panama Canal invasion in nineteen ninety one, we 0:44:45.480 --> 0:44:49.640 lost twenty three some soldiers were killed on Heartbreak Ridge 0:44:49.680 --> 0:44:52.600 in Granada. And then when the two thousand and three 0:44:52.680 --> 0:44:56.440 invasion happened, we thought chemical weapons and everything was going 0:44:56.480 --> 0:44:58.719 to rain down on our trips and didn't happen. Do 0:44:58.800 --> 0:45:03.279 you think the false premise of four wars with relatively 0:45:03.320 --> 0:45:08.120 low casualties as Americans complacent about the risk our troops 0:45:08.160 --> 0:45:08.879 face right now? 0:45:10.520 --> 0:45:12.440 Well, we had a couple of wars after that, you 0:45:12.680 --> 0:45:17.160 where unfortunately we took a lot of casualties, so relatively speaking, 0:45:17.680 --> 0:45:20.560 compared to those other engagements, we took a lot of casualties. 0:45:20.640 --> 0:45:22.280 So no, I think people are worried. 0:45:22.760 --> 0:45:28.280 I think Donald Trump is uniquely reluctant to use American 0:45:28.480 --> 0:45:32.920 military power in a sustained combat type situation. Now I 0:45:32.960 --> 0:45:35.719 don't know what we'd call ten twelve, fourteen days all 0:45:35.800 --> 0:45:39.239 that sustained. So this is a president I think who 0:45:39.760 --> 0:45:42.439 uniquely and sometimes I worry about it. Sometimes I think 0:45:42.480 --> 0:45:46.600 maybe he's too reluctant. So We're not going to go 0:45:46.640 --> 0:45:51.920 in until we're ready, until we have in place what 0:45:51.960 --> 0:45:54.040 we need to protect our people as much as they 0:45:54.080 --> 0:45:56.040 can be protected. That's why I say I have a 0:45:56.080 --> 0:45:58.839 fair amount of confidence. I mean, you never know with war, 0:46:00.200 --> 0:46:03.480 and he's got to pull the trigger. It's just a 0:46:03.600 --> 0:46:07.319 question now of when. And I've been saying this on 0:46:07.360 --> 0:46:09.120 the show and on the pod now for the better 0:46:09.160 --> 0:46:11.040 part of a month, so I should be careful, but 0:46:11.360 --> 0:46:12.959 I've got to believe it's going to be soon. 0:46:13.440 --> 0:46:16.680 The podcast that center Talon is referring to a Twain's 0:46:16.680 --> 0:46:19.080 World on which he appears every week when Dwayne gets 0:46:19.120 --> 0:46:21.920 together with the Senator, and it's great national security stuff. 0:46:22.440 --> 0:46:26.040 What do you expect follows a sustained campaign, even if 0:46:26.040 --> 0:46:31.160 it's two weeks more Mula's more IRGC or perhaps a 0:46:31.200 --> 0:46:34.440 different military general. And the way that CC took power 0:46:34.560 --> 0:46:36.480 back from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. 0:46:38.520 --> 0:46:40.520 Well, I heard one of I think it was Dan 0:46:40.600 --> 0:46:43.160 Senor's Interviewees. You know, he has so many good ones. 0:46:43.200 --> 0:46:46.239 I can't remember exactly which one, but he said, the 0:46:46.280 --> 0:46:48.399 next leader of Iran is not going to be wearing 0:46:48.400 --> 0:46:50.520 a turbine. He's going to be wearing a military cap 0:46:50.600 --> 0:46:54.319 and I would really expect that when it happens. I 0:46:54.360 --> 0:46:57.440 don't think we should necessarily expect that to happen as 0:46:57.480 --> 0:46:59.759 a result of this campaign, though, because I don't think 0:47:00.120 --> 0:47:03.640 the purpose of it is to achieve regime collapse. What 0:47:03.760 --> 0:47:06.520 I would expect we'll do after that is really go 0:47:06.640 --> 0:47:11.200 after their oil shipments, their shadow oil fleet. I think 0:47:11.239 --> 0:47:14.240 that's a better alternative than carg Island, which you've talked about. 0:47:14.239 --> 0:47:18.040 You because we don't want to cripple the nation. 0:47:18.200 --> 0:47:21.040 We want to cripple the regime, and you can do 0:47:21.120 --> 0:47:24.080 that by going after their oil ship and so, assuming 0:47:24.120 --> 0:47:25.759 we have the assets to do it, we can do 0:47:25.840 --> 0:47:28.120 to them what we're doing to Venezuela now and choke 0:47:28.160 --> 0:47:29.840 off revenue further from the regime. 0:47:30.200 --> 0:47:32.920 Do you think that they are in touch with the 0:47:32.920 --> 0:47:35.280 reality enough to know what happens where they do inflec 0:47:35.360 --> 0:47:38.560 serious casualties on American troops And I mean, if they 0:47:38.560 --> 0:47:41.719 got a destroyer, I think Donald Trump would go through 0:47:41.719 --> 0:47:42.080 the roof. 0:47:43.400 --> 0:47:45.520 Oh yeah, no, I don't think so. 0:47:45.680 --> 0:47:49.120 You I think this is the collapse and they're going 0:47:49.160 --> 0:47:51.200 to be very This is kind of like Hitler and 0:47:51.239 --> 0:47:53.759 the Bunkers. What I think I mean, this is the 0:47:53.840 --> 0:47:58.960 collapse of all their ideological and scatological pretensions, I think, 0:48:00.040 --> 0:48:02.080 and they'll be desperate to do anything to prevent it. 0:48:02.120 --> 0:48:05.840 And the question is, which the Israelis may know I 0:48:05.920 --> 0:48:10.320 don't know, is are there regime factions that are drawing 0:48:10.400 --> 0:48:13.879 back from that kind of a scorched earth policy, who 0:48:13.920 --> 0:48:16.600 will act if necessary. I think they've been waiting for 0:48:16.680 --> 0:48:19.799 the Supreme Leader to die, which makes sense. I mean, 0:48:19.840 --> 0:48:23.120 that's the time for a transition to something new. So, 0:48:23.680 --> 0:48:25.920 but are there forces that are prepared to say at 0:48:25.920 --> 0:48:28.120 some point, no, you know what, We're going to hurry 0:48:28.120 --> 0:48:30.799 that along. You know, we'll bring a pillow to his 0:48:30.880 --> 0:48:35.360 bedside in the bunker and we'll get changed before that. 0:48:35.520 --> 0:48:38.279 And I don't know. I don't know that anybody knows. 0:48:38.320 --> 0:48:40.239 If anybody knew, it would be the Israelis. 0:48:40.520 --> 0:48:41.640 I'm watching his son. 0:48:41.800 --> 0:48:44.000 His son is a master that fortune of many, many 0:48:44.080 --> 0:48:47.359 hundreds of millions of dollars outside of the country. And 0:48:47.760 --> 0:48:51.200 that's not the action of a confident next in line 0:48:51.239 --> 0:48:52.279 supreme leg is it. 0:48:53.960 --> 0:48:54.160 No? 0:48:54.480 --> 0:48:58.000 And I've got to believe that there are people close 0:48:58.040 --> 0:49:00.080 to him who aren't quite as willing to die as 0:49:00.080 --> 0:49:03.120 he may be. I mean, there's a limit to how 0:49:03.200 --> 0:49:05.759 much you know the top leader is one thing or 0:49:05.800 --> 0:49:10.000 the people immediately around him. But I've never thought that 0:49:10.000 --> 0:49:13.880 that when you broad it out to the RGC generals 0:49:13.880 --> 0:49:17.480 and the rest of it, that they're as willing, you know, 0:49:17.560 --> 0:49:20.080 to meet their maker as the supreme leader is. 0:49:20.640 --> 0:49:22.319 So if it. 0:49:22.320 --> 0:49:26.680 Happens soon, if regime collapses, collapse happens soon, that'll be 0:49:26.719 --> 0:49:27.759 what will cause it. 0:49:28.520 --> 0:49:30.520 We will look for that move against. 0:49:30.160 --> 0:49:32.080 It, and we will look for Center Talent to be 0:49:32.120 --> 0:49:35.120 back next week. He's also a frequent guest on Dwayne World. 0:49:35.719 --> 0:49:37.279 I don't know how often Dwayne. 0:49:37.000 --> 0:49:37.480 Are doing that. 0:49:38.000 --> 0:49:41.640 He's thinking about me kindling the aftershow. Be careful, Jim, 0:49:41.680 --> 0:49:43.600 he'll cut out the end of that on a daily basis. 0:49:43.880 --> 0:49:46.600 Don't go anywhere America. Thank you Senator Talent for him 0:49:46.640 --> 0:49:49.880 on at Jim Talent. It's really the best tex handle 0:49:49.920 --> 0:49:53.160 out there at Jim Talent from the Reagan Instuit for 0:49:53.200 --> 0:49:57.320 the Study of Peace through Stank State tuned Jim Garrity. 0:49:57.680 --> 0:50:01.000 He is of course National are Youth Senior. Of course, 0:50:01.080 --> 0:50:03.960 hosted the Three Martini Lunch. She's of course a contributor 0:50:04.480 --> 0:50:08.680 to The Editors podcast by Nashal review and he's the 0:50:08.880 --> 0:50:11.400 father of Robot Boys, and so I don't know if 0:50:11.400 --> 0:50:14.440 he's smart, but his wife must be. The Robot boys 0:50:14.440 --> 0:50:16.520 interest me a lot more than you, Jim. But someday 0:50:16.520 --> 0:50:18.080 they'll come on and talk to me about what they're 0:50:18.160 --> 0:50:20.080 up to. Have they been set back? Can they get 0:50:20.080 --> 0:50:21.600 a robot to shovel the snow? 0:50:23.480 --> 0:50:24.680 That has not done that? 0:50:25.680 --> 0:50:27.840 But this has been you know, here in Fairfax County 0:50:27.880 --> 0:50:32.799 where they are metaphorical snowflakes over literal snowflakes, we got 0:50:32.840 --> 0:50:35.560 real snow and we were shoveling out. 0:50:35.360 --> 0:50:37.560 Sunday in between the football games. 0:50:37.280 --> 0:50:40.040 And there was you know, like in our driveway there 0:50:40.080 --> 0:50:42.880 was still like a layer of ice on top of 0:50:43.600 --> 0:50:46.839 everything else. So schools were close Monday, that was a guarantee. 0:50:47.920 --> 0:50:51.120 Wednesday's a half day. Thursday and Friday are off because 0:50:51.120 --> 0:50:53.440 it's the end of the quarter of the grading period, 0:50:53.640 --> 0:50:58.440 so off Mountain Day schools canceled get Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon, 0:50:58.520 --> 0:51:00.600 They're like, what are we doing. There's no way we're 0:51:00.640 --> 0:51:02.600 sending the kids for half a day for the week. 0:51:02.880 --> 0:51:06.719 You're off Wednesday too, So usually my son is like 0:51:06.840 --> 0:51:09.880 thrill day, snow days, No wants to get into the 0:51:09.920 --> 0:51:14.080 school to work on the rob robots line schedule. Yeah, 0:51:14.200 --> 0:51:18.040 the first competitions are in like ed the February, so 0:51:18.320 --> 0:51:20.719 you know, they get the assignment in January. 0:51:21.239 --> 0:51:21.640 This year. 0:51:21.640 --> 0:51:23.880 The robot's going to have to like take a ball 0:51:24.960 --> 0:51:27.719 probably with the size like a volleyball, slightly smaller and 0:51:27.800 --> 0:51:30.600 shoot it up into a basket and the question you 0:51:30.640 --> 0:51:33.680 get points for how well your robot can do that. 0:51:34.160 --> 0:51:36.880 It also has to go over a ramp. This is 0:51:36.880 --> 0:51:39.279 the first robotics competition for anybody out there who's like, 0:51:39.320 --> 0:51:41.759 what is this, you know, bizarre thing that my kids 0:51:41.800 --> 0:51:44.759 get to get into and get really competitive about. So 0:51:44.920 --> 0:51:46.719 they're into it, but they have to know the first 0:51:46.800 --> 0:51:48.680 they got like one more month. They have the design, 0:51:49.120 --> 0:51:50.920 they have the basics. They got the robot that can 0:51:51.000 --> 0:51:52.960 roll around by remote control and stuff. It's got to 0:51:53.000 --> 0:51:56.520 be autonomous for I think thirty seconds. This year they 0:51:56.520 --> 0:52:00.480 increase that, so you you program in the software. Robot's 0:52:00.480 --> 0:52:01.799 got to be able to do it by itself for 0:52:01.840 --> 0:52:04.200 the first thirty seconds or else you're not scoring any 0:52:04.239 --> 0:52:06.560 points for the first thirty seconds of like a two 0:52:06.560 --> 0:52:09.600 minute thirty second competition period. So they got their work 0:52:09.600 --> 0:52:12.880 cut out for him and couldn't go into. 0:52:12.320 --> 0:52:14.520 Any day this week, which is making things a little 0:52:14.560 --> 0:52:16.600 more complicated. It made really loudy. 0:52:16.680 --> 0:52:20.440 Statatics advisor came and opened one door and let the 0:52:20.640 --> 0:52:21.680 robotics kids in. 0:52:23.440 --> 0:52:26.200 Hugh, that is an intense topic of discussion. I'll just 0:52:26.239 --> 0:52:29.120 put it there. And I don't want to get the 0:52:29.160 --> 0:52:31.759 illustrious faculty advisor, who's a terrific guy. 0:52:32.760 --> 0:52:33.399 I don't want to get. 0:52:33.280 --> 0:52:36.240 Anybody in trouble, all right, So nobody starts snooping around 0:52:36.280 --> 0:52:38.480 one particular at company wants high school. 0:52:39.680 --> 0:52:43.879 Okay, goodenough, all right, Jim, let's get serious war, no war. 0:52:43.960 --> 0:52:48.319 What do you think, Well, it certainly seems like we've 0:52:48.320 --> 0:52:52.120 got more and more forces going into that region. I 0:52:52.280 --> 0:52:56.360 had been frustrated that both on your program in early 0:52:56.480 --> 0:52:58.879 January and then a little bit more than two weeks ago, 0:53:00.040 --> 0:53:02.920 and Trump had gone on truth social encourage the Iranian 0:53:02.960 --> 0:53:03.960 people to rise up. 0:53:04.000 --> 0:53:06.120 He says, keep track of who the torturers are. 0:53:06.680 --> 0:53:09.640 Help is on the way, Miga, and I assume that means, 0:53:09.680 --> 0:53:12.239 you know, make a ran great again. And I was 0:53:12.320 --> 0:53:14.080 very supportive of that is what I wanted to see 0:53:14.120 --> 0:53:17.239 the president do. And then time went by and not 0:53:17.400 --> 0:53:19.360 much has happened now. Some of this was getting the 0:53:19.360 --> 0:53:22.000 Abraham Lincoln carrier group out to the Persian Gulf. 0:53:22.440 --> 0:53:22.600 Oh. 0:53:22.640 --> 0:53:25.279 By the way, I saw news that Iran, China, and 0:53:25.360 --> 0:53:30.120 Russia plan on doing joint naval exercises in that neighborhood 0:53:30.520 --> 0:53:33.120 in the coming days. Hugh, do you think the timing 0:53:33.160 --> 0:53:35.480 of that joint naval exercise is a coincidence? 0:53:35.960 --> 0:53:36.120 No? 0:53:36.200 --> 0:53:40.160 But I'm also not particularly worried about the Chinese and 0:53:40.200 --> 0:53:43.759 the Russian navies getting together. I'm afraid what they'll do 0:53:43.800 --> 0:53:46.040 is right into each other. They might hit is by accident. 0:53:46.120 --> 0:53:47.400 But if the. 0:53:47.600 --> 0:53:51.319 Ukrainians you know why the Ridian remember the Ukrainian sidney. 0:53:53.560 --> 0:53:55.680 You know why the Ranian navy has glass bottom boats? 0:53:55.719 --> 0:53:55.879 Right? 0:53:55.960 --> 0:53:58.560 Yeah, Operation Operation Praying Manage. 0:53:59.400 --> 0:54:00.640 Well, I was gonna say that way they can see 0:54:00.680 --> 0:54:01.520 the old Iranian navy. 0:54:01.560 --> 0:54:07.080 Okay, but I think they're something's going off here. 0:54:07.480 --> 0:54:09.799 I'm just on record. What do you think. 0:54:11.600 --> 0:54:16.720 I think the president it would look really bad if 0:54:17.080 --> 0:54:17.800 nothing happened. 0:54:17.800 --> 0:54:17.920 Now. 0:54:17.960 --> 0:54:19.760 I want to point out that we have a variety 0:54:19.800 --> 0:54:23.480 of ways to undermine the Iranian regime. Could be cyber, 0:54:23.880 --> 0:54:27.799 could be covert action. I think getting as many starlink 0:54:27.920 --> 0:54:30.560 links and other ways to get communications going on would 0:54:30.560 --> 0:54:33.960 be helpful. I think trying to jam the communications or 0:54:34.000 --> 0:54:37.480 disrupt the communications of the Iranian regime might be helpful 0:54:37.680 --> 0:54:40.160 to the people trying to throw up to overthrow the regime. 0:54:40.320 --> 0:54:44.480 So I'm hoping we're doing something already, and I'm hoping 0:54:44.520 --> 0:54:47.000 that there is more to come, because, as I'm sure 0:54:47.040 --> 0:54:50.480 your listeners know, Hugh, the estimates of the death tolls 0:54:50.520 --> 0:54:54.000 among the protesters. Some have it in the ten thousand range, 0:54:54.040 --> 0:54:56.359 some have it closer to twenty thousand, some of us 0:54:56.560 --> 0:54:57.560 as thirty thousand. 0:54:58.280 --> 0:55:00.400 That's like ten times nine to eleven, like. 0:55:00.239 --> 0:55:02.800 Like the figure that they think since Bobby Are in 0:55:02.880 --> 0:55:06.279 World War One, when the Nazi's wiped out thirty three 0:55:06.320 --> 0:55:09.360 thousand Jews in Ukraine in two days, it's the biggest 0:55:09.640 --> 0:55:11.319 two day massacre since then. 0:55:11.960 --> 0:55:13.040 Unthinkable. 0:55:13.320 --> 0:55:16.480 But Jim, I have talked I think pretty much every 0:55:16.840 --> 0:55:19.640 Iran expert inside the Beltway over the last two weeks 0:55:19.640 --> 0:55:22.239 since the President made his remarks on this show, and 0:55:22.280 --> 0:55:24.799 they all tell me that you cannot bomb. 0:55:24.480 --> 0:55:28.239 The IRGC out of power. They're too deeply dug in. 0:55:28.640 --> 0:55:33.000 All you can do is candaten create conditions of extreme 0:55:33.760 --> 0:55:38.040 opportunity for the street. If it takes that opportunity, they 0:55:38.080 --> 0:55:39.120 may be too shocked. 0:55:39.840 --> 0:55:44.000 What do you think, well, open I used open source 0:55:44.040 --> 0:55:47.680 intelligence shortly after the president's comments to look at which 0:55:47.760 --> 0:55:51.200 parts of the IRGC are most involved in doing things 0:55:51.239 --> 0:55:55.919 like putting down protesters, riot control, you know, that kind 0:55:55.920 --> 0:55:58.480 of stuff. And then I figured out again through open 0:55:58.520 --> 0:56:01.160 source intelligence, I don't have any spies working me or 0:56:01.160 --> 0:56:01.520 anything like. 0:56:01.560 --> 0:56:04.520 That where those facilities are located. 0:56:04.800 --> 0:56:07.040 So when I wrote about the president, like two weeks 0:56:07.080 --> 0:56:08.920 have gone by since the President said help is on 0:56:08.960 --> 0:56:11.120 the way, what's you know, What's what's the deal here? 0:56:11.120 --> 0:56:11.640 What's going on? 0:56:12.000 --> 0:56:14.400 Some people said, Jim, you don't You can't criticize the 0:56:14.400 --> 0:56:16.200 president without saying what he should do. 0:56:17.000 --> 0:56:18.399 Well, I dive everything. 0:56:18.120 --> 0:56:21.480 Short of the coordinates and the street addresses for these locations. 0:56:21.480 --> 0:56:22.239 And I kind of have this. 0:56:22.200 --> 0:56:26.240 Feeling that if the aspects of the rg I RGC 0:56:26.960 --> 0:56:28.879 that are most involved in buying the proto, if their 0:56:29.000 --> 0:56:32.319 barracks suddenly explode, that's not going to help morality. 0:56:32.360 --> 0:56:33.279 That's not going to help, you know. 0:56:33.440 --> 0:56:35.320 And I figure that would be a great shot in 0:56:35.360 --> 0:56:37.880 the arm for the protesters. Now, is it a legitimate 0:56:37.880 --> 0:56:41.680 concern about if the Americans helped, does the regime then say, ah, 0:56:41.719 --> 0:56:44.160 they're all the tools of the Americans, They're all the 0:56:44.160 --> 0:56:45.319 tools of the Israelis. 0:56:45.640 --> 0:56:47.360 Yeah, but the regime is going to say that anyway, 0:56:47.520 --> 0:56:49.160 like the regime. 0:56:49.320 --> 0:56:52.360 That's the one thing I take. There is no support 0:56:52.400 --> 0:56:53.800 for the regime inside of Iran. 0:56:54.000 --> 0:56:54.200 None. 0:56:54.960 --> 0:56:55.160 Yeah. 0:56:55.600 --> 0:56:58.239 The other thing, and I know other guests in your 0:56:58.280 --> 0:57:01.799 program are likely to talk about this today. The main 0:57:01.920 --> 0:57:05.160 impetus behind these protests in this uprising is that the 0:57:05.200 --> 0:57:09.719 Iranian economy is a mess. The currency is becoming completely devalued. 0:57:09.960 --> 0:57:11.920 We think we got problems of inflation in this country, 0:57:11.920 --> 0:57:12.720 it's way way. 0:57:12.520 --> 0:57:13.200 Worse in Iran. 0:57:13.320 --> 0:57:14.920 Right, So even. 0:57:14.800 --> 0:57:16.840 Leff they can somehow kill a whole bunch of people, 0:57:16.880 --> 0:57:19.840 and even if they can somehow, you know, simp stamp 0:57:19.960 --> 0:57:23.800 down every Iranian who dares raise their voice, you're still 0:57:23.800 --> 0:57:26.360 stuck with the economic problems and this regime is not 0:57:26.400 --> 0:57:28.240 going to be able to fix that. It would require 0:57:28.960 --> 0:57:32.440 wholesale changes in all of their policies, and they'd have 0:57:32.440 --> 0:57:34.440 to deal with corruption, and they'd have to deal with 0:57:34.480 --> 0:57:35.120 all the bad load. 0:57:35.240 --> 0:57:37.600 Like, there's really no way for them to get out 0:57:37.600 --> 0:57:37.760 of this. 0:57:38.000 --> 0:57:41.960 So one way or another, the Iranian regime can't continue 0:57:42.040 --> 0:57:44.520 the way it is. The question is do they hang 0:57:44.560 --> 0:57:47.680 on by their fingernails for as long as possible after 0:57:47.760 --> 0:57:50.840 you know, a blood bath of massacring protests, or do 0:57:50.920 --> 0:57:53.320 we give them a little shove and somebody else gets 0:57:53.320 --> 0:57:54.600 to run the show and we hope that they have 0:57:54.640 --> 0:57:56.919 a you know where they're more amenable to our long 0:57:57.000 --> 0:57:59.200 term vision as you know something and with the long 0:57:59.320 --> 0:58:01.160 term prospect of the Iranian people. 0:58:01.440 --> 0:58:04.000 I had rear Admiral Mark Montgomery on yesterday. He actually 0:58:04.080 --> 0:58:06.880 run a strike group and he ran through he's retired. 0:58:07.280 --> 0:58:10.600 He ran through the amount of firepower we have and 0:58:10.680 --> 0:58:13.520 the number of defensive forces we put in there. But 0:58:13.680 --> 0:58:16.360 he also noted they're not a regime for walking away 0:58:17.040 --> 0:58:20.920 if it begins this time, it's not just a discreet 0:58:21.040 --> 0:58:24.480 insular target that the nuclear facilities at portoh where it's 0:58:24.520 --> 0:58:29.920 a bunch of targets. Does Trump risk hemorrhaging support in 0:58:29.960 --> 0:58:33.040 the United States by getting into well, let's even say, 0:58:33.440 --> 0:58:38.040 half of a Yugoslavian campaign that Bill Clinton ran, or 0:58:38.080 --> 0:58:40.920 a third of the Libyan campaign that Barack Obama ran. 0:58:42.240 --> 0:58:45.040 Completely fair concerns And one of the things I would 0:58:45.080 --> 0:58:49.240 note is that the Ayatola theoretically could fly off to Moscow. 0:58:49.360 --> 0:58:51.840 There are all these reports they've been flying gold bars 0:58:51.880 --> 0:58:55.080 to Moscow and bringing in weapons back on the flights 0:58:55.080 --> 0:58:59.280 and stuff like that. If you are the first of all, 0:58:59.280 --> 0:59:02.520 if you're the Ranian military, you know, maybe some of 0:59:02.520 --> 0:59:04.680 these of their units are going out and oppressing the people. 0:59:04.720 --> 0:59:07.480 There are probably some Marianian military folks like I don't 0:59:07.480 --> 0:59:09.920 want to shoot my fellow countrymen. I don't want to 0:59:09.920 --> 0:59:13.240 shoot people who are protesting because they can't afford food 0:59:13.440 --> 0:59:14.400 and their. 0:59:14.160 --> 0:59:15.440 Money has become devalued. 0:59:16.000 --> 0:59:18.480 And if the United States starts bombing you know, military 0:59:18.520 --> 0:59:23.240 targets that are not associated with hitting the civilians, you know, 0:59:23.240 --> 0:59:26.360 if they start hitting like naval you know units or 0:59:26.400 --> 0:59:27.840 something like that, I could see the. 0:59:27.800 --> 0:59:29.440 Iranians saying, what are you doing, America? 0:59:29.440 --> 0:59:32.640 Why are you shooting you know, my brother who's defending 0:59:32.640 --> 0:59:35.720 our country. Idea, So you got your target selection matters 0:59:35.760 --> 0:59:38.480 a lot. I have no idea about how difficult this 0:59:38.520 --> 0:59:40.720 would be, but I do figure if you could do 0:59:40.800 --> 0:59:43.880 anything akin to a decapitation strike, if you could take 0:59:43.920 --> 0:59:46.400 out the iotolf, you could take out the top commanders, 0:59:46.840 --> 0:59:48.760 then there'd be a question for the Iranian military. 0:59:48.960 --> 0:59:50.400 Whose side do you want to be on? 0:59:50.600 --> 0:59:52.240 And do you want to get into a fight with 0:59:52.280 --> 0:59:54.720 the American Americans or do you want to say, you know. 0:59:54.760 --> 0:59:57.280 What, new group of people in charge, we're going to try. 0:59:57.360 --> 0:59:59.520 It's a new, fresh, new day. Let's leave all this 0:59:59.600 --> 1:00:00.800 best flit behind us. 1:00:01.160 --> 1:00:03.600 Oh, we can pray for that. Jim Garrity, good luck, 1:00:03.680 --> 1:00:06.320 get into the school. Remember it's illegal. 1:00:05.880 --> 1:00:10.120 To break and enter even a robotic competition. Follow Jim 1:00:10.160 --> 1:00:12.360 on Acts of Jim Garrity, Read him in the Washington Post, 1:00:12.440 --> 1:00:14.680 Read the Morning Jolt at Nash Review, and come right. 1:00:14.600 --> 1:00:17.120 Back to the Qquit Show on the Salem News Channel. 1:00:21.600 --> 1:00:22.480 Welcome back. 1:00:22.200 --> 1:00:25.200 I'm here here with Noah Rothman, Senior editor way at 1:00:25.320 --> 1:00:29.960 National Review. No I'm from northeastern Ohio, where tonight it's 1:00:30.000 --> 1:00:33.640 going to be minus five degrees in Ashtabula, minus eleven 1:00:33.680 --> 1:00:36.360 degrees in my hometown of Warren, and minus twelve degrees 1:00:36.360 --> 1:00:36.960 in Youngstown. 1:00:37.200 --> 1:00:39.080 Do you have any idea why my wife won't move 1:00:39.120 --> 1:00:39.600 to Ohio? 1:00:41.720 --> 1:00:45.000 I hazard of guess it is so cold you and 1:00:45.120 --> 1:00:48.120 it has been so cold for so long. There's this 1:00:48.200 --> 1:00:50.440 little quirk in my bathroom shower where we have a 1:00:50.520 --> 1:00:53.480 rain headed shower head that just doesn't work under twenty degrees. 1:00:53.880 --> 1:00:56.480 I don't remember the last time that thing has worked 1:00:56.600 --> 1:00:58.400 it is. It's driving me quite batty. 1:00:58.800 --> 1:01:01.640 Well, I New Jersey with getting in the short end 1:01:01.680 --> 1:01:03.000 of the stick as well. But if you're marry a 1:01:03.080 --> 1:01:05.480 California girl, those are unacceptable numbers. 1:01:05.960 --> 1:01:08.280 No, let's get serious and hurry to talk a lot. 1:01:08.360 --> 1:01:09.680 Do you expect a war with they run? 1:01:12.000 --> 1:01:14.680 I expect strikes on a run. I don't know what 1:01:14.760 --> 1:01:16.120 the scale of those strikes are going to be. 1:01:16.200 --> 1:01:17.919 I think the president set himself up to the degree 1:01:17.960 --> 1:01:19.640 that he has to follow through with his red line. 1:01:19.680 --> 1:01:22.520 It has been flagrantly violated, and the President himself has 1:01:22.600 --> 1:01:25.000 said that this was a terrible decision for Barack Obama 1:01:25.040 --> 1:01:26.680 not to follow up on his own self set line. 1:01:26.760 --> 1:01:28.720 I think there has to be strikes. I hope they're 1:01:28.800 --> 1:01:32.440 not symbolic. They very well could be. There's a variety 1:01:32.480 --> 1:01:35.560 of scenarios that we could be seeing. I'm not sure 1:01:35.600 --> 1:01:38.640 if the president wants to see a strike so broad 1:01:38.680 --> 1:01:40.640 and so big that it could actually collapse the regime, 1:01:40.680 --> 1:01:43.760 although I think that's probably desirable, but it could be 1:01:43.840 --> 1:01:48.240 calibrated in a way so as to avoid triggering an 1:01:48.280 --> 1:01:51.880 Iranian response that looks like the response that we could 1:01:52.360 --> 1:01:54.800 expect if it was an existential threat to the regime, 1:01:55.960 --> 1:01:58.520 which could take many forms, the most scary of which 1:01:58.760 --> 1:02:02.000 would be a real concert effort to sink a US warship. 1:02:02.080 --> 1:02:03.840 That would take a lot of drones, a lot of 1:02:04.200 --> 1:02:09.160 one way attack drones, missiles, boats armed with suicide attackers. 1:02:09.320 --> 1:02:12.560 It would be a concentrated attack in order to achieve 1:02:12.640 --> 1:02:15.560 something real, not just a demonstrative display like we saw 1:02:16.240 --> 1:02:18.960 in the wake of the Operation Midnight Hammer where they 1:02:18.960 --> 1:02:21.360 targeted the base in Qatar. It would be something very different, 1:02:21.400 --> 1:02:25.080 But that is my nightmare scenario, not just loosing all 1:02:25.120 --> 1:02:27.360 the missiles and seeing where they go and hopefully they 1:02:27.440 --> 1:02:29.360 have some kind of an effect in a message, something 1:02:29.480 --> 1:02:33.080 really designed to demonstrate that the US is vulnerable. 1:02:33.120 --> 1:02:35.640 And this is how you know the British Navy when 1:02:35.680 --> 1:02:38.920 they invaded successfully the Falklands to take them back from 1:02:38.960 --> 1:02:43.080 the Argentinians many many years ago, Thatcher senate the Argentinians 1:02:43.080 --> 1:02:46.280 sunk a British ship, to the great shock of the 1:02:46.360 --> 1:02:49.880 Imperial Royal Navy that an exo set missile could do that. 1:02:50.120 --> 1:02:52.480 So there's there's no guarantee, and there are a lot 1:02:52.520 --> 1:02:55.440 of basses. I asked Admiral Mark Montgomery yesterday retired were 1:02:55.480 --> 1:02:56.800 admiral from the United States Navy. 1:02:57.200 --> 1:03:00.720 He thinks the greater threat are to our base anywhere. 1:03:00.800 --> 1:03:04.640 With that GPS, they're not so good at the stuff 1:03:04.720 --> 1:03:07.040 that moves that, they're pretty good at finding the bases. 1:03:07.120 --> 1:03:12.840 Noah, Yeah, And this would be for the regime to 1:03:12.880 --> 1:03:14.760 take on that kind of an operation. It would be 1:03:15.240 --> 1:03:17.920 an all or nothing sort of situation. That's that's when 1:03:17.960 --> 1:03:20.320 the claresy believes that the game is really up. I 1:03:20.840 --> 1:03:22.960 heard my colleague gim on your last segment say that 1:03:23.040 --> 1:03:26.800 there's the possibility that the Iranian Clarity could flee to Moscow. 1:03:26.960 --> 1:03:30.080 I think that's pretty remote, just based on their own 1:03:30.120 --> 1:03:33.320 mythology with the Shah that fled a great shaw that 1:03:33.680 --> 1:03:36.400 slaughtered people in the streets, and we're not like that. 1:03:36.480 --> 1:03:38.800 We don't do that, even though they obviously are doing 1:03:38.920 --> 1:03:42.480 precisely that. So there's something of an element to this 1:03:42.840 --> 1:03:46.760 regime from the founding that maintains that this is around, 1:03:46.800 --> 1:03:49.040 we are around, we die with Iran or we live 1:03:49.080 --> 1:03:49.440 with Iron. 1:03:49.520 --> 1:03:51.280 So I don't expect them to flee. I expect them 1:03:51.320 --> 1:03:51.600 to fight. 1:03:52.080 --> 1:03:54.000 No, the older generators also don't want to face the 1:03:54.040 --> 1:03:54.960 rests of their own people. 1:03:55.120 --> 1:03:58.120 Yeah, the younger generation listens to Richard Dawkins. The older 1:03:58.200 --> 1:04:00.520 generation thought the iron I rock war for ten years 1:04:00.520 --> 1:04:04.080 and walk through minefields. So they're not going anywhere. My 1:04:04.320 --> 1:04:07.640 question is in terms of what Trump said. But the 1:04:07.720 --> 1:04:11.280 President said on True Social, then on My show, then 1:04:11.360 --> 1:04:17.800 to Sean Hannity, then to CBS News Tony ducoppol, then 1:04:18.120 --> 1:04:20.520 on True Social again. I think he said eight times 1:04:21.400 --> 1:04:24.920 that a price will be paid if they harm the demonstrator. 1:04:25.120 --> 1:04:27.560 He has to do it, but it's just a question 1:04:27.680 --> 1:04:29.520 of I don't think he has to do it until 1:04:29.520 --> 1:04:31.840 we're as safe as we can be, and I accept 1:04:31.920 --> 1:04:35.160 that as an excuse. We're still flying fads in How 1:04:35.280 --> 1:04:39.240 long does he have until he is rightly subject to 1:04:39.320 --> 1:04:41.960 criticism for erasing a red line like Obama did. 1:04:43.320 --> 1:04:43.680 I don't know. 1:04:43.760 --> 1:04:44.439 That's a good question. 1:04:44.600 --> 1:04:47.240 It's already too late for me, and I suspect that 1:04:47.440 --> 1:04:49.880 it was a material deficit. We talked about this at 1:04:49.920 --> 1:04:52.000 the time that our assets were tied up in the 1:04:52.080 --> 1:04:55.240 campaign in Venezuela and we did not have the assets 1:04:55.280 --> 1:04:57.720 in place to make good on this historic opportunity. I 1:04:57.840 --> 1:05:00.320 think that is a real missed opportunity to Poste already 1:05:00.320 --> 1:05:03.120 will not look at kindly, but he doesn't have much 1:05:03.160 --> 1:05:05.480 longer to wait. I think the protests, we don't have 1:05:05.520 --> 1:05:07.120 a lot of great information coming out of around, but 1:05:07.120 --> 1:05:09.600 I think the protests have already relatively fizzled out, and 1:05:09.680 --> 1:05:11.840 we're starting to talk ourselves into the notion that the 1:05:11.880 --> 1:05:15.640 best case scenario would be a military dictatorship to replace 1:05:15.760 --> 1:05:20.320 the regime ousting. I imagine the IRGC and the Koods forces, 1:05:20.400 --> 1:05:23.080 the religious police, the religious character of the regime would 1:05:23.080 --> 1:05:26.480 be replaced with something much more like the regime now 1:05:26.600 --> 1:05:30.000 under cc Or Mobarik in Egypt, something very military in 1:05:30.080 --> 1:05:32.959 nature and very undemocratic. I think we shouldn't be talking 1:05:33.000 --> 1:05:35.800 ourselves into that as though that's the best case option 1:05:36.080 --> 1:05:40.120 for us. Right now, we have The violence that we 1:05:40.200 --> 1:05:43.800 saw on the street was a result of an outpouring 1:05:43.960 --> 1:05:47.520 of I would call it democratic enthusiasm. I don't think 1:05:47.720 --> 1:05:50.440 I'm shy about saying that that was a liberal movement 1:05:51.280 --> 1:05:53.920 at its root, and it's something that I. 1:05:53.960 --> 1:05:56.720 Have cream side you pour on in the last hour, 1:05:57.080 --> 1:05:58.760 and I'm going to ask him because he knows you're 1:05:58.840 --> 1:06:00.960 on at least as well as anyone inside the belt 1:06:00.960 --> 1:06:04.800 Way without a classified access to information. What is the 1:06:04.960 --> 1:06:08.240 ceiling for I run? I think it's really high. I 1:06:08.360 --> 1:06:11.560 think it is very much. It's a first world country. 1:06:12.080 --> 1:06:14.840 The Shaw had it on the White Revolution path and 1:06:14.960 --> 1:06:17.600 it's just gone backwards for forty seven years. I think 1:06:17.680 --> 1:06:20.720 it can reclaim growth pretty quickly. They've got everything there. 1:06:22.000 --> 1:06:22.880 I think it can too. 1:06:23.040 --> 1:06:25.920 There's a lot of X factors there, including the repression 1:06:26.160 --> 1:06:28.280 of Iranian minorities. 1:06:27.760 --> 1:06:29.240 Over the course of the last fifty years. 1:06:29.880 --> 1:06:32.600 How would the Azeris feel, the Kurds, the Blukes, the 1:06:32.680 --> 1:06:35.920 marsh Arabs, how would they feel about a military dictatorship? 1:06:35.920 --> 1:06:37.480 Would they simply roll over for it? Or would they 1:06:37.520 --> 1:06:38.960 have to be suppressed and pacified? 1:06:40.240 --> 1:06:41.360 Now, let me ask that out. 1:06:41.200 --> 1:06:45.160 The case learning after the break up, play my appearance 1:06:45.240 --> 1:06:48.640 on America Reports this Minke, which was right after America's newsroom, 1:06:49.040 --> 1:06:51.760 right after home and got done speaking, and I began 1:06:51.880 --> 1:06:56.360 by saying that was a masterful class in communication. 1:06:56.640 --> 1:06:57.520 Did you watch him? 1:06:59.160 --> 1:06:59.680 I didn't watch it. 1:06:59.720 --> 1:07:03.080 I read transcript or elements of the transcript, and so 1:07:03.360 --> 1:07:05.600 I can't comment on it. I can't comment on a 1:07:05.680 --> 1:07:07.800 dramaturgy of it as a theater critic, but I can 1:07:07.880 --> 1:07:11.080 say that the substance of the remarks were powerful, impressive, 1:07:11.520 --> 1:07:13.280 and exactly what the moment called for. 1:07:13.520 --> 1:07:15.320 Again, I've said this couple of times. 1:07:15.360 --> 1:07:16.919 I don't know if I said it on your show, 1:07:17.000 --> 1:07:20.560 But a tactical retreat, which is what they're engineering here, 1:07:21.040 --> 1:07:23.120 is not the abandonment of the campaign. It is the 1:07:23.160 --> 1:07:27.160 prosecution of the campaign on more auspicious terms and better circumstances. 1:07:27.640 --> 1:07:29.240 And that's I think with this administration. 1:07:29.480 --> 1:07:32.080 The better part of prudence compelled this administration to do that, 1:07:32.200 --> 1:07:35.120 and I'm very glad that they took that opportunity. That 1:07:35.320 --> 1:07:37.480 the temperature in this country is quite high right now. 1:07:37.960 --> 1:07:41.080 And even though it looks like a retreat, indeed the 1:07:41.200 --> 1:07:44.040 second in as many weeks if you count the off 1:07:44.160 --> 1:07:46.760 ramp that the President took in Greenland, but that is 1:07:47.280 --> 1:07:54.160 a prudent leadership, commendable leadership, and a d escalation of 1:07:54.560 --> 1:07:58.960 the conflict that this administration sought and waged and secured 1:07:59.000 --> 1:08:04.120 many success in the prosecution of it and de escolating 1:08:04.240 --> 1:08:04.680 is important. 1:08:04.840 --> 1:08:06.800 His dad is a cop, his grandfather is a cop. 1:08:06.920 --> 1:08:09.080 He's been in law enforcement for forty years. He did 1:08:09.160 --> 1:08:11.320 not raise his voice. Cops know they do not want 1:08:11.360 --> 1:08:14.360 to be involved in officer shooting. Most importantly, he didn't 1:08:14.400 --> 1:08:18.120 raise his voice. He spoke calmly throughout. I wish everyone 1:08:18.200 --> 1:08:21.439 in America would learn. You don't persuade anyone by shouting. 1:08:21.680 --> 1:08:23.680 Do you think that that message is going to get 1:08:23.680 --> 1:08:24.519 across to anybody? 1:08:26.200 --> 1:08:29.920 Well, he does get across to almost everybody who's not 1:08:30.040 --> 1:08:32.840 engaged in political combat on a daily basis. I mean, 1:08:32.880 --> 1:08:35.799 to those of us who are involved in this business, 1:08:36.640 --> 1:08:39.920 we're the weird ones. We're the ones who think that, 1:08:40.160 --> 1:08:43.080 you know, domestic politics is an existential fight for the 1:08:43.240 --> 1:08:45.200 very soul of the nation. Most of the country doesn't 1:08:45.200 --> 1:08:46.800 think that way, and so they wouldn't behave that way 1:08:46.840 --> 1:08:47.559 in a very high. 1:08:47.479 --> 1:08:48.840 Strung and theatrical manner. 1:08:49.520 --> 1:08:51.599 But those of us who would do this do politics 1:08:51.640 --> 1:08:55.080 as entertainment sometimes lapse into that, and that can find 1:08:55.120 --> 1:08:57.320 its way into the political cast. It's good to see 1:08:57.320 --> 1:09:00.800 that permanent bureaucrats like Tom Holman or get at his job, 1:09:00.960 --> 1:09:04.839 just reject that form of theaters as say. 1:09:04.680 --> 1:09:08.000 Craft, may it spread Oh Noah, no c Rothman read 1:09:08.080 --> 1:09:09.439 him in the National Room and listen to him on 1:09:09.479 --> 1:09:11.639 the Editors and come right back to the Hugh Hewit Show. 1:09:14.000 --> 1:09:17.280 Welcome back America. I'm join Maleana Johnson on the Hugh 1:09:17.320 --> 1:09:19.559 Hewitt Show. She's the editor in chief of the Washington 1:09:19.600 --> 1:09:23.759 Free Beacon, a contributor to Commentary podcast. He is also 1:09:24.360 --> 1:09:27.640 a native of the Twin Cities. Eleana, I want to 1:09:27.680 --> 1:09:30.519 start with the Twin Cities. I haven't heard the Commentary podcast. 1:09:30.600 --> 1:09:32.280 I was in the dentist chair for two days and 1:09:32.400 --> 1:09:36.080 not dancing around listening to you and the fellows and 1:09:36.479 --> 1:09:39.519 Christine over at Commentary. What do you think of Tom 1:09:39.560 --> 1:09:42.400 Homan's remarks this morning and of the situation in the 1:09:42.439 --> 1:09:43.080 Twin Cities? 1:09:43.160 --> 1:09:48.360 Now, well, you, I just listened to your remarks on 1:09:48.800 --> 1:09:52.479 the Fox program and I totally agree with you. I 1:09:52.640 --> 1:09:57.240 thought he gave an absolutely lucid presentation. And I will say, 1:09:57.320 --> 1:09:59.439 as a reporter, I love somebody who goes up to 1:09:59.479 --> 1:10:02.519 the microphone and says I was given talking points, but 1:10:02.560 --> 1:10:06.080 I'm not going to use them. So that that was fantastic. 1:10:06.280 --> 1:10:08.960 And the one thing I thought he did, I know 1:10:09.120 --> 1:10:13.160 you said you appreciated one of his remarks in particular, 1:10:13.280 --> 1:10:16.839 but something else caught my I you liked his remark 1:10:17.360 --> 1:10:21.360 about no comment on the video. I appreciated something else, 1:10:21.880 --> 1:10:27.920 which was his explanation very clearly that minimal cooperation from 1:10:28.200 --> 1:10:31.720 local law enforcement will allow that will allow ICE to 1:10:31.880 --> 1:10:36.599 draw down quickly and why? And he explained that for ICE, 1:10:37.080 --> 1:10:41.320 picking up a criminal illegal immigrant from a jail requires 1:10:41.560 --> 1:10:45.240 much less manpower than doing an operation to pick up 1:10:45.240 --> 1:10:49.000 a criminal off the streets or in their home, which 1:10:49.080 --> 1:10:52.000 requires a big team plus a team to follow to 1:10:52.120 --> 1:10:55.680 deal with all of the rioters whose main goal has 1:10:55.800 --> 1:11:00.160 been not peaceful protests, but to interfere and prevent the 1:11:00.360 --> 1:11:03.240 administration of federal law enforcement. And I thought that was 1:11:03.320 --> 1:11:04.080 really important. 1:11:04.320 --> 1:11:06.920 It was And again I heard that too, and I thought, 1:11:07.120 --> 1:11:11.000 point point point Elianna, do you think Donald Trump has 1:11:11.040 --> 1:11:13.800 a unique way of communicating? But not many people, if 1:11:13.920 --> 1:11:16.920 anyone else, can do it that way, because you have 1:11:17.160 --> 1:11:20.240 to be a celebrity, you have to have a bit 1:11:20.320 --> 1:11:22.720 of the developer in you. You've got to have ten 1:11:22.800 --> 1:11:26.960 years of reality television training to communicate with that range. 1:11:27.560 --> 1:11:31.720 I think the Homan approach, call them quiet collected, ought 1:11:31.760 --> 1:11:35.360 to be passed around the cabinet table and people ought 1:11:35.400 --> 1:11:36.280 to be told to study. 1:11:36.479 --> 1:11:40.679 It's Marco Rubio's way. It's the way of Doug Bergham. 1:11:41.200 --> 1:11:42.840 There are only a few people who want to hit 1:11:43.000 --> 1:11:46.000 ranges that are outside of their vocal expertise. 1:11:48.920 --> 1:11:51.200 There are a number of good communicators I think that 1:11:51.280 --> 1:11:55.600 the President has on hand for this mission, which is 1:11:55.640 --> 1:11:59.760 a serious one. In Minnesota. Tom Homan, whose background for 1:12:00.200 --> 1:12:05.919 years in law enforcement, his sober, mean and deep knowledge 1:12:06.160 --> 1:12:08.880 both of the mission and of the law, I think 1:12:09.040 --> 1:12:13.280 was perfectly suited to Minnesota, as was Marco Rubio's yesterday 1:12:13.400 --> 1:12:18.559 in the Senate, which was a masterclass in diplomatic. 1:12:19.680 --> 1:12:21.040 In diplomacy and. 1:12:21.200 --> 1:12:22.320 Of back and forth. 1:12:22.439 --> 1:12:25.960 And they had different styles, you know, rub Rubio was 1:12:26.080 --> 1:12:29.160 funny and charming, and I wouldn't say home and was 1:12:29.200 --> 1:12:31.240 either of those things. But they were both wonderful in 1:12:31.280 --> 1:12:32.360 their respective venues. 1:12:32.640 --> 1:12:35.880 Here's a third approach from today's cabinet meeting. It's Vice 1:12:35.960 --> 1:12:39.479 President vance cut number sixteen for a Leanna Johnson. 1:12:41.040 --> 1:12:41.960 I just want to thank. 1:12:41.880 --> 1:12:46.000 Everybody for being my cabinet has been amazing. I like 1:12:46.120 --> 1:12:49.400 this much better than going around for three hours. We'll 1:12:49.400 --> 1:12:51.960 pick on other ones. Pam, you're doing great. We're all 1:12:52.040 --> 1:12:52.559 doing great. 1:12:52.800 --> 1:12:53.040 JD. 1:12:53.240 --> 1:12:55.320 You'd like to say something you can would you like 1:12:55.400 --> 1:13:00.200 your Really, he is, after all, the vice president, so. 1:13:00.200 --> 1:13:01.400 I'm here for the free coffee. 1:13:01.520 --> 1:13:03.519 I just say it's an honorous server with this group, 1:13:03.720 --> 1:13:08.080 and that understatement Eliana is also a good trick for people, 1:13:08.160 --> 1:13:08.920 don't you think. 1:13:10.600 --> 1:13:13.840 Well, particularly when you're sitting next to or across from 1:13:13.880 --> 1:13:15.840 the President and he's in the room with you. I 1:13:15.920 --> 1:13:19.280 think Vance really showed his range and his utility on 1:13:19.400 --> 1:13:21.639 the campaign trail where he came out of the gate 1:13:21.720 --> 1:13:24.320 and had a rough go of things. But he's really 1:13:24.400 --> 1:13:29.200 been fantastic doing battle with the media, particularly on these 1:13:29.280 --> 1:13:32.280 Sunday shows, and he really shines going back and forth 1:13:32.400 --> 1:13:34.920 with the mainstream press and has showed he's a real 1:13:35.040 --> 1:13:39.280 asset to this administration where when he does a Sunday show, 1:13:39.320 --> 1:13:42.320 the headlines that come out of it, particularly with Margaret 1:13:42.360 --> 1:13:46.360 Brennan on CBS News, are of the Vice President pressing 1:13:46.439 --> 1:13:50.160 the administration's case and owning the respective hosts, and I 1:13:50.240 --> 1:13:52.560 think the President came to value that both on the 1:13:52.640 --> 1:13:54.360 campaign trail and in the administration. 1:13:54.720 --> 1:13:57.160 I've called it with John Wick of the Sunday shows, 1:13:57.320 --> 1:13:59.160 i think he is the John Wick of the Sunday shows. 1:13:59.200 --> 1:14:02.679 Now, let's go to war or no war? Eleana Johnson, 1:14:02.760 --> 1:14:04.680 What do you think you know? 1:14:04.800 --> 1:14:04.920 Hugh. 1:14:05.000 --> 1:14:06.960 It's funny we talked about this a week ago. I 1:14:07.120 --> 1:14:10.519 was sort of the outlier on the commentary podcast saying 1:14:10.600 --> 1:14:12.840 that I thought the window for action was still open, 1:14:13.240 --> 1:14:15.680 and that's where I still am. I do believe the 1:14:15.720 --> 1:14:18.040 President will act. None of us know what's going to happen. 1:14:18.120 --> 1:14:20.880 I could be wrong, but with the assets in the 1:14:20.920 --> 1:14:24.280 region and Trump renewing his threats, he's laid out his 1:14:24.520 --> 1:14:28.000 conditions for a deal. They are abandoned the nuclear program, 1:14:28.479 --> 1:14:33.479 limit ballistic missile capacity, which remains formidable for this regime 1:14:33.560 --> 1:14:35.559 even though it was weakened by the Twelve Day War 1:14:36.680 --> 1:14:40.240 in June. Israel and the US really did not touch 1:14:40.320 --> 1:14:43.480 ballistic missile capacity, and stop the funding of terror proxies. 1:14:43.680 --> 1:14:46.720 It seems to me that those are conditions that the 1:14:46.840 --> 1:14:50.160 Iranian regime will not agree to, and so I think 1:14:50.200 --> 1:14:52.760 we're going to see action because. 1:14:52.520 --> 1:14:54.920 Adam Crado figured out what the war plan is yet. 1:14:54.960 --> 1:14:57.280 Because Adam usually has the scoops over at the Washington 1:14:57.280 --> 1:14:58.080 Free Beacon. 1:14:59.040 --> 1:15:02.040 I wish trust we'd have that on the front page 1:15:02.080 --> 1:15:02.640 if we knew it. 1:15:03.000 --> 1:15:05.760 He is a remarkable reporter. I don't know how long 1:15:05.840 --> 1:15:08.880 he's been at the Beacon, but he gets scoopy. He 1:15:08.920 --> 1:15:10.000 can know a lot of your people. 1:15:11.320 --> 1:15:13.920 He's a twelve year og and I would point your 1:15:13.960 --> 1:15:18.000 folks to his wonderful report yesterday morning that well, the 1:15:18.080 --> 1:15:21.920 PA president claimed to have suspended pay for slave programs, 1:15:22.120 --> 1:15:26.400 they were merely shifted into another organization and continued. All 1:15:26.479 --> 1:15:30.040 the while a confidential, non public State Department report to 1:15:30.160 --> 1:15:33.439 Congress showed, you know, once a terrorist, always a terrorist. 1:15:33.640 --> 1:15:36.360 I also want to compliment the free Beacon. I hate 1:15:36.360 --> 1:15:40.439 affirmative action. It's unconstitutional to use race to award and 1:15:40.640 --> 1:15:44.560 gender to award benefits or to inflct punishments. Absolutely and constitutional. 1:15:44.880 --> 1:15:46.880 You guys stay on that is that like a beat 1:15:47.000 --> 1:15:47.599 at the Beacon. 1:15:49.400 --> 1:15:53.599 Our star superstar reporter, and we have several of them, 1:15:53.760 --> 1:15:57.280 but our reporter Aaron Sabarium is on that, as are 1:15:57.320 --> 1:15:59.479 a few others. And I would note that the Justice 1:15:59.520 --> 1:16:03.519 Department weighed in in a case on UCLA that was 1:16:03.560 --> 1:16:07.080 brought by Due Noo Harm against UCLA Medical School, and 1:16:07.360 --> 1:16:10.639 the Justice Department weighed in on do No Harm's behalf 1:16:10.840 --> 1:16:15.040 just yesterday. So we're seeing concrete action from this administration 1:16:15.360 --> 1:16:20.160 on this matter. And The source of it is impactful reporting. 1:16:20.640 --> 1:16:23.240 Last year, a former member of the UCLA Board of 1:16:23.280 --> 1:16:25.559 Advisors told me that two years ago, do you how 1:16:25.600 --> 1:16:27.759 many Jews were admitted to UCLA Medical School? 1:16:27.880 --> 1:16:28.479 Two years ago? 1:16:30.000 --> 1:16:35.639 One one one Jewish doctor at the UCLA Medical School 1:16:35.760 --> 1:16:38.320 class and two years ago? I cannot believe it. 1:16:38.760 --> 1:16:40.719 Elianna, Good to see you as always. 1:16:40.920 --> 1:16:44.559 Follow Eleiana on exit Eleana why Johnson, Read the free 1:16:44.600 --> 1:16:46.760 Bacon at freebeacon dot com and come right back. 1:16:46.680 --> 1:16:48.479 To the Qwitt Show. Hi, it's you, Hewett. 1:16:48.479 --> 1:16:51.080 You've heard me talk a lot about Consumer Cellular how 1:16:51.120 --> 1:16:53.880 you can switch your carrier and save money without sacrifice. 1:16:54.320 --> 1:16:57.960 That's because Consumer Cellular uses the same towers as the 1:16:58.000 --> 1:17:00.920 major carrier. You'll save money every month on your bill 1:17:01.240 --> 1:17:04.519 without having to sacrifice the quality of coverage. Right now, 1:17:04.560 --> 1:17:07.559 you get your second month free, plus Folks over fifty 1:17:07.600 --> 1:17:09.840 get two lines of unlimited talk, text and data for 1:17:10.000 --> 1:17:12.880 sixty dollars a month. That's an addition to the second 1:17:12.960 --> 1:17:16.600 month totally free using promo code. 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If 1:17:44.000 --> 1:17:47.559 you're over fifty, go to Consumer siular dot com, slash 1:17:47.640 --> 1:17:51.920 qu promo HU or call one hundred eight or call 1:17:52.000 --> 1:17:54.639 one eight hundred four one one forty four fifty four 1:17:55.160 --> 1:17:57.400 one eight hundred four to one one forty four to 1:17:57.439 --> 1:17:59.880 fifty four. That's one eight hundred four to one, one 1:18:00.000 --> 1:18:02.240 forty four to fifty four. And don't forget My code 1:18:02.479 --> 1:18:03.120 is Hugh. 1:18:11.120 --> 1:18:12.759 Walking Back America. I'm Hugh Hewett. 1:18:12.840 --> 1:18:15.920 Vic Mattis is the weekend unditor and arts and culturtor 1:18:15.960 --> 1:18:17.920 at The Free Beacon. He's also co host of the 1:18:17.960 --> 1:18:21.880 Getting Hammered podcast, my go to podcast for Root canals. 1:18:21.960 --> 1:18:22.080 Vic. 1:18:22.120 --> 1:18:24.080 I don't know if you heard yesterday's program with Mary 1:18:24.120 --> 1:18:27.519 Katherine Ham, but I listened to the latest Getting Hammered yesterday. Well, 1:18:27.520 --> 1:18:30.840 they were pile driving my back bowler to get rid 1:18:30.880 --> 1:18:31.360 of a root I. 1:18:31.360 --> 1:18:32.360 Didn't now I had left. 1:18:34.479 --> 1:18:35.840 No, I did not know about that. 1:18:36.080 --> 1:18:36.200 Hugh. 1:18:36.280 --> 1:18:39.679 I'm very sorry and yet very happy because getting hammered 1:18:39.800 --> 1:18:41.559 is a form of anesthesia for many people. 1:18:41.800 --> 1:18:43.759 Well, it was, but it was easy. 1:18:43.840 --> 1:18:44.599 I kept pain. 1:18:45.600 --> 1:18:47.800 I was laughing, especially at the fact that the winter 1:18:47.920 --> 1:18:50.720 storm has caused you to add some pounds and your 1:18:50.760 --> 1:18:52.880 wife doesn't like watching you work out. 1:18:54.560 --> 1:18:56.240 Yes, that is correct. 1:18:56.280 --> 1:18:59.120 You know, we get into this hoarding mentality when, especially 1:18:59.200 --> 1:19:01.559 in the Washington d See area, you hear a storm's 1:19:01.600 --> 1:19:04.560 coming and then you know, everybody treats the local supermarket 1:19:04.680 --> 1:19:06.600 like it's the Soviet Union and all the you know, 1:19:06.760 --> 1:19:09.880 shelves are suddenly bare. And then you're suddenly eating three 1:19:09.960 --> 1:19:13.400 meals a day plus in between snacks because you feel 1:19:13.439 --> 1:19:15.599 like you have to. As if again, like I mentioned 1:19:15.680 --> 1:19:17.599 on the show, it's like you're living at the Overlook 1:19:17.640 --> 1:19:21.200 Hotel in the shining Yes. Again, it's a couple of days. 1:19:21.280 --> 1:19:23.320 It's not the end of the world. I eat less 1:19:23.439 --> 1:19:24.240 when the weather's. 1:19:24.040 --> 1:19:27.880 Nicer, Vic tell me if I asked Mary Catherine, yesha, 1:19:27.960 --> 1:19:31.320 and she said d C was leading Virginia in the 1:19:31.400 --> 1:19:34.920 Disaster Olympics. Because snowstorms are snowstorms for about two days. 1:19:35.360 --> 1:19:38.920 Then they become failures of government or success stories for government. 1:19:39.320 --> 1:19:40.360 Which is it in d C? 1:19:40.520 --> 1:19:41.120 And Maryland? 1:19:43.040 --> 1:19:46.880 H yeah, well for DC definitely. We're talking about again 1:19:46.960 --> 1:19:49.439 the nation's capital. People are coming into the city as 1:19:49.479 --> 1:19:52.000 we speak. They're flying in, they're taking the trains. I 1:19:52.160 --> 1:19:56.320 had to meet with a friend of mine, Tunkuverdarjian of 1:19:56.360 --> 1:19:58.920 the Wall Street Journal, and he had to hop around. 1:19:59.000 --> 1:20:01.600 He said it was very pair in Washington's capital. He 1:20:01.680 --> 1:20:05.280 thought that was a little bit unnerving and disturbing. I said, 1:20:05.360 --> 1:20:07.120 that's come to be expected. 1:20:07.240 --> 1:20:10.920 So it is a mess. And Muriel Bowser, the mayor, 1:20:11.840 --> 1:20:12.960 is blaming. 1:20:13.360 --> 1:20:17.639 The situation on the unusual circumstance of sleet and snow, 1:20:18.040 --> 1:20:20.960 which she claims has never happened before. 1:20:21.320 --> 1:20:22.880 But everybody, including. 1:20:22.520 --> 1:20:25.040 Our friend Tim Carney, has been saying for a long time, 1:20:26.000 --> 1:20:29.160 get out there, get the shovels out, get the trucks 1:20:29.200 --> 1:20:32.400 out while it's still soft snow, before the sleet hardens 1:20:32.439 --> 1:20:35.120 and you have these giant sheets of ice rock. Of 1:20:35.240 --> 1:20:37.479 course they didn't do that, and now we have the 1:20:37.560 --> 1:20:40.760 mess where we have literally one lane going in and 1:20:40.840 --> 1:20:44.120 out of some of these main thoroughfares. I'm here in Arlington, Virginia, 1:20:44.439 --> 1:20:47.360 and honestly, it's not that much better. The road to 1:20:47.400 --> 1:20:50.400 get over to key Bridge is one lane. Normally it's four. 1:20:51.520 --> 1:20:52.600 That's a bit of a mess, and I don't know 1:20:52.600 --> 1:20:53.439 when they're going to change it. 1:20:53.760 --> 1:20:56.760 Back in nineteen long ago and far away nineteen eighty 1:20:56.800 --> 1:20:58.839 four and the fetching Missish and I had an apartment 1:20:58.920 --> 1:21:01.280 in the Envoy at the corner of California and Connecticut, 1:21:01.760 --> 1:21:04.360 and for to go from there to Vienna, Virginia is 1:21:04.360 --> 1:21:07.200 a straight shot out the sixty six about fifteen twenty minutes. 1:21:07.560 --> 1:21:11.000 Took us seven hours to make that trip because of 1:21:11.160 --> 1:21:16.280 sleet and ice. That was unexpected. It wasn't forecast. Why 1:21:16.479 --> 1:21:19.400 people aren't ready with sand I mean Ohio right now 1:21:19.680 --> 1:21:23.120 is tonight my hometown will be minus eleven degrees. 1:21:23.240 --> 1:21:25.719 And they know how to deal with that in Ohio. 1:21:26.640 --> 1:21:30.280 Muriel Bowser blaming someone who I'm shocked shock that the 1:21:30.360 --> 1:21:33.400 government official didn't stand up and say I failed to prepare. 1:21:34.760 --> 1:21:37.080 Well, I'm actually shocked that she even bothered to sort 1:21:37.080 --> 1:21:38.559 of give an excuse, because you know. 1:21:38.680 --> 1:21:40.960 She's on her way out. She's not running for reelection. 1:21:42.320 --> 1:21:44.920 I made a comparison the other day on getting hammer 1:21:45.000 --> 1:21:48.439 to Marion barry be California, you know, during the Super 1:21:48.520 --> 1:21:50.720 Bowl and saying hey, I called during halftime, you know. 1:21:50.800 --> 1:21:53.040 And they always make sure the mayor's street gets plowed. 1:21:53.360 --> 1:21:57.120 But that's about it. And so I am shocked about that. 1:21:57.280 --> 1:21:59.400 And of course this is a big test, for the 1:21:59.479 --> 1:22:02.639 first of any big tests for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, 1:22:03.040 --> 1:22:05.360 and I honestly don't think she's doing a great job 1:22:05.400 --> 1:22:07.120 at least when it comes to the snow cleanup, let 1:22:07.160 --> 1:22:07.960 alone the taxes. 1:22:08.160 --> 1:22:10.040 Now, I want to go back to the getting hammered 1:22:10.200 --> 1:22:13.840 portion of the discussion. I and twice in my long life, 1:22:14.200 --> 1:22:16.680 twice have I been approached by someone yelling at me 1:22:16.720 --> 1:22:20.080 in a public if we get the boo boo boo 1:22:20.200 --> 1:22:24.280 from Princess Bride, Because apparently someone did the boo boo 1:22:24.360 --> 1:22:27.599 booed at getting hammered Mary Katherine Ham and she marched 1:22:27.680 --> 1:22:30.160 right over there and talked to the individual. I've been 1:22:30.160 --> 1:22:33.400 accosted twice, but I was so shocked that I neither 1:22:33.960 --> 1:22:37.200 got mad or I just kind of that's it. 1:22:38.120 --> 1:22:39.720 So bit has it ever happened to you? 1:22:41.800 --> 1:22:43.960 No, I'm trying to think about this, and I've been 1:22:44.360 --> 1:22:46.439 I've done a lot of you know, speaking gigs over 1:22:46.560 --> 1:22:48.360 many years. I've been in this business now for what 1:22:48.840 --> 1:22:52.360 thirty years now, You and I've dealt with hostile audiences. 1:22:53.040 --> 1:22:56.040 But that was sort of anticipated, especially during the Iraq War, 1:22:56.240 --> 1:22:58.639 and so I expected hostile questions at the time when 1:22:58.640 --> 1:23:01.040 I was at the weekly Standard. But walking into a 1:23:01.080 --> 1:23:05.280 place and getting booed, no, not for not for the 1:23:05.360 --> 1:23:10.080 circumstances that that Mary Catherine found herself in. But of 1:23:10.120 --> 1:23:13.760 course being Mary Catherine, she you know, she likes a 1:23:13.800 --> 1:23:17.840 good conflict. And you sort of stun your opponent when 1:23:17.840 --> 1:23:21.120 you beat them to the punch. And this person obviously 1:23:21.240 --> 1:23:23.439 had to take a step back and realize that, you know, 1:23:23.680 --> 1:23:25.920 maybe they were getting a little carried away. 1:23:26.000 --> 1:23:29.479 You know, have you ever been to Aspen? No, I 1:23:29.560 --> 1:23:31.920 have not been to ask The airport's not very big. 1:23:32.280 --> 1:23:34.639 You have to fly little airplanes in there, and it's 1:23:34.720 --> 1:23:37.040 kind of a quick descent. I got off the plane 1:23:37.080 --> 1:23:41.280 and Aspen and a younger fella, probably thirty at the time, 1:23:41.680 --> 1:23:43.479 got up in my face and me and right in 1:23:43.560 --> 1:23:46.280 my girl, and you're kind or not wanted here? And 1:23:46.520 --> 1:23:49.320 I thought that middle aged white men can't come to Aspen, 1:23:49.479 --> 1:23:52.960 right which kind of which kind is? Like, I like 1:23:53.040 --> 1:23:55.639 the most of all peanut butter and jelly guy in America. 1:23:55.760 --> 1:23:57.640 What do you mean we can't come here that's like 1:23:57.760 --> 1:23:58.519 half the country. 1:23:59.720 --> 1:24:04.280 Yeah, yeah, no, that would be very disturbing. I'm sorry 1:24:04.320 --> 1:24:05.960 you had to deal with Oh it was fine. 1:24:06.600 --> 1:24:06.800 Yeah. 1:24:07.479 --> 1:24:09.639 Now tell me what you thought of Tom Homan this morning. 1:24:09.960 --> 1:24:12.240 That could not be on getting hammered yesterday because it 1:24:12.320 --> 1:24:12.879 was yesterday. 1:24:14.200 --> 1:24:14.599 That's right. 1:24:15.640 --> 1:24:18.200 Again, we talked about the ice situation yesterday before we 1:24:18.280 --> 1:24:20.400 knew that Homan was coming in and he was going 1:24:20.479 --> 1:24:22.960 to replace Paveno in this situation to sort of calm 1:24:23.080 --> 1:24:23.559 things down. 1:24:23.800 --> 1:24:25.120 And I really do think he did. 1:24:25.200 --> 1:24:25.240 So. 1:24:25.400 --> 1:24:27.599 He had an eight am press conference bright in early 1:24:27.680 --> 1:24:28.960 our time on the East coast. 1:24:29.960 --> 1:24:34.160 And look what he wanted to do is he spoke 1:24:34.240 --> 1:24:35.080 to the authorities. 1:24:35.520 --> 1:24:39.200 He spoke to the you know, Minneapolis politicians who matter, 1:24:40.240 --> 1:24:43.719 and he wanted to have a reset because let's let's 1:24:43.800 --> 1:24:48.200 stop for everybody's sake and ask ourselves, why is ice 1:24:48.280 --> 1:24:51.560 here in Minnesota or in any state, what it is 1:24:51.680 --> 1:24:54.200 exactly that they're doing, and why did the situation become 1:24:54.360 --> 1:24:56.880 become so dangerous? And I think he did a very 1:24:56.960 --> 1:24:59.400 good job about explaining what the role of ICE is. 1:24:59.439 --> 1:25:03.160 The people they're apprehending, the number of arrests, the murder 1:25:03.280 --> 1:25:06.719 rate is down in this country, all these things. Again, 1:25:07.720 --> 1:25:10.639 life would be so much easier if they were able, 1:25:10.720 --> 1:25:13.160 If ICE was just able to retrieve illegals who do 1:25:13.760 --> 1:25:16.280 a criminal wrongdoing in the jails. 1:25:16.720 --> 1:25:19.240 I give you thousands of agents. 1:25:19.360 --> 1:25:22.280 Well and quick cut number five from Tom Hummon this morning. 1:25:22.560 --> 1:25:27.160 So target enforcement operations wave, We've always done it. I 1:25:27.280 --> 1:25:30.000 think we got a wait for a little bit, and 1:25:30.200 --> 1:25:32.640 we're going want to make sure we do target enforcement operations. 1:25:32.720 --> 1:25:34.960 And I look at I will say it again. You 1:25:35.040 --> 1:25:38.400 know we are not surrendering our mission at all. 1:25:39.040 --> 1:25:39.840 Do you believe him? 1:25:40.640 --> 1:25:43.000 Madis Yeah? 1:25:43.240 --> 1:25:45.400 I think so. I mean, you know, Trump very much 1:25:45.479 --> 1:25:49.599 campaigned on this. Holman is a very serious, sober guy. 1:25:50.920 --> 1:25:53.639 They can if they can reduce the presence of ICE 1:25:53.680 --> 1:25:56.600 agents on the street, than fine. But in terms of 1:25:57.439 --> 1:26:02.240 getting very dangerous illegal criminals off the streets, that's something 1:26:02.280 --> 1:26:03.720 that they are going to continue to do. 1:26:04.320 --> 1:26:06.599 Great. I'd like to see that continue. 1:26:06.680 --> 1:26:11.080 Obviously, the big question is Jacob Fry talking both sides 1:26:11.120 --> 1:26:13.759 out of his mouth, because on the one hand, behind 1:26:13.800 --> 1:26:15.680 the scenes, I mean he spoke to President Trump and 1:26:15.760 --> 1:26:18.960 he spoke to Homan. Uh and there seems to be 1:26:19.080 --> 1:26:21.760 some level of understanding about what ICE needs to do. 1:26:21.920 --> 1:26:24.120 And again, what do they have in common here? 1:26:24.240 --> 1:26:27.799 Both sides they say they want they want the community 1:26:27.800 --> 1:26:31.200 to be safer, But obviously Jacob Brian tim Mots can 1:26:31.240 --> 1:26:33.759 do a lot more to make it safer by helping 1:26:34.200 --> 1:26:34.880 Tom Homan and. 1:26:34.920 --> 1:26:37.880 Ice, and he got Keith Ellis and the Attorney General 1:26:38.000 --> 1:26:40.639 is not very sharp on the law at least going 1:26:40.680 --> 1:26:42.519 to help I get the detainers that are. 1:26:42.400 --> 1:26:43.439 Their release from prison. 1:26:44.360 --> 1:26:48.400 Victreno Madison X's also the co hosts of there Getting 1:26:48.479 --> 1:26:49.360 Hammered podcast. 1:26:49.439 --> 1:26:52.200 But there's wonderful that for the Denner's chair and anywhere 1:26:52.520 --> 1:26:54.040 you go. Thank you, Vitt. 1:26:54.080 --> 1:26:54.760 I'll be right back in