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Speaker 1: We spend most Monday show talking about the exploding Somali

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Speaker 1: fraud Scandali story that continues to utterly baffle him in

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Speaker 1: bamboozle and swindle and defraud and all the works, all

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Speaker 1: the additives. I think our fair game when it comes

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Speaker 1: to this terrible story out of Minnesota, the repercussions of

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Speaker 1: which we are only beginning to learn the extent of it.

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Speaker 1: As Cash Hotel said over the weekend, this is very

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Speaker 1: much only the tip of the iceberg we have seen

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Speaker 1: when it comes to the independent YouTuber Nick Shirley on

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Speaker 1: the ground and from various other sources at this point.

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Speaker 1: But the world keeps on spinning, and there's plenty of

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Speaker 1: other events going on as well. And we're going to

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Speaker 1: bring on shortly to the show, rebeccaheim Res. Rebecca is

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Speaker 1: a senior fellow at the Hudson Suit, one of my

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Speaker 1: favorite thinkers when it comes to foreign affairs more generally,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna kind of just hop scotch across the

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Speaker 1: globe because from my vantage points, Donald Trump is a

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Speaker 1: peace making president. Donald Trump is a pro peace statement,

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Speaker 1: someone who has presided over god knows how many peace deals, ceasefires,

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Speaker 1: military off rams, in this first year of his second term,

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Speaker 1: whether it's Congo and Rwanda in Sub Saharan Africa, whether

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Speaker 1: it's Armenia and Azerbaijan, a conflict that I saw up

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Speaker 1: close and personal when I was there two and a

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Speaker 1: half years ago. If you had told me that there

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Speaker 1: will be peace there in twenty twenty five, I literally

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Speaker 1: would not have believed that. He has seen peace deals

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Speaker 1: between two nuclear powers Indian Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, all

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Speaker 1: sorts of Middle East peacemaking. He's been a phenomenal pro

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Speaker 1: peace president. The big question and the question that we

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Speaker 1: will get into in a few minutes here just with

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Speaker 1: with Rebecca Himriz, is is this pro peace momentum going

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Speaker 1: to continue into the year twenty twenty six? On Sunday,

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Zelenski of Ukraine was at mar A Lago visiting

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Speaker 1: with Donald Trump, and on Monday Benjaminincinniak Whu was their

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Speaker 1: mini president Trump as well. Russia Ukraine continues to be

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Speaker 1: the huge question that is still looming out there when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the lack of a peace steal. If

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Speaker 1: the were still raging this February, which unfortunately there is

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Speaker 1: a very good chance it will be that will now

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Speaker 1: mark four years since the carnage first started in the

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Speaker 1: Dombas region of eastern Ukraine and in the Crimean Peninsula.

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Speaker 1: It was in February twenty twenty two that Lamar Putin

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Speaker 1: first sent the tanks over the border into Ukraine. And

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Speaker 1: are we closer to a piece still now than we

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Speaker 1: were three to four years ago? Maybe it's kind of

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Speaker 1: hard to tell sometimes, frankly, because both sides are not

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Speaker 1: quite budging on some of their terminal demands. Russia is

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Speaker 1: clearly the more obstinate party. They are the aggressor. They're

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Speaker 1: the ones who are refusing to compromise virtually on anything,

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Speaker 1: as far as I can tell a Zelenski Foid's worth.

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Speaker 1: It's also not quite ready to compromise when it comes

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Speaker 1: to territorial concessions in eastern Ukraine. What a mess, certainly

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Speaker 1: for me personally. As the calendar gets ready to flip

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Speaker 1: from twenty twenty five into twenty twenty six, that is

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Speaker 1: something that I will be paying very very close attention to.

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Speaker 1: Is there anything, Is there anything that we can possibly

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Speaker 1: do to try to cajole these parties to try to

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Speaker 1: make mutual concessions again, Primarily from the Russian side. They

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Speaker 1: are the more opnits of the two. Certainly at this time.

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Speaker 1: We'll get into all that, certainly and more on the

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Speaker 1: Russian crane conflict with Rebecca Heinrich speaking of Primus Nataniyahu

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Speaker 1: and his visit to mar A Lago on Monday, both

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Speaker 1: men fully smiling. They seem to be very much in

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Speaker 1: lockstep on the same page. Trump's warm embrace of his

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Speaker 1: longtime compatriot and ally Netsniaho's certainly doing a lot, I

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Speaker 1: think to simmer the boiling tensions in this particular Bilatter relationship,

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Speaker 1: which has really been dragged through the mud by bad

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Speaker 1: faith actors, mostly on the left, but increasingly with some

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Speaker 1: ferocity on the quote unquote right. And I use those

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Speaker 1: scare quotes deliberately. But whatever's worth whatever the naysayers and

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Speaker 1: the conspiracists may be saying, they're certainly not reaching sixteen

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Speaker 1: hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. They're certainly not reaching Maro Lago. Because

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump doesn't give a crap what the conspiracists say.

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Speaker 1: He clearly believes strongly in this particular relationship. He clearly

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Speaker 1: believes strongly in Benjamintiak, who, as an individual leader most recently,

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Speaker 1: actually on this trip, the Israeli delegation announcing that they

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Speaker 1: will be giving their Israel Prize, which is what they

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Speaker 1: named their Great Annual National Prize. It's typically given to

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Speaker 1: an Israeli citizen. This is actually the first time they're

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Speaker 1: give it to Donald Trump. Apparently, this is the first

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Speaker 1: time they'll be giving it to a non Israeli citizen

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Speaker 1: in seven and a half eight decades essentially in the

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Speaker 1: entire existence of the contemporary Jewish date. So that just

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Speaker 1: shows you how he is viewed, does to say how

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is viewed in the state of Israel. And

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Speaker 1: that's for good reason, because Donal Trump has been an

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Speaker 1: amazing friend, an amazing friend to Israel where the rubber

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Speaker 1: could potentially meet the road come twenty twenty six, and

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Speaker 1: again we'll get Rebecca Himer's thoughts on this is when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the reascendant threat of the Iranian regime.

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Speaker 1: Recall that it was now six and a half months

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Speaker 1: ago that the Israelis first took out a lot of

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Speaker 1: the Iranian air defenses inside of the country of Iran,

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Speaker 1: and then the United States came in for the kude

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Speaker 1: Grath for the death blow with those B two bombers

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Speaker 1: dropping those massive bombs at four Donatans and various other

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Speaker 1: Iranian nuclear sites. The big question right now is what

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Speaker 1: is the current state of the Iranian nuclear program. We

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Speaker 1: know that there is some level of enriched geranium that

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Speaker 1: is currently around there, and certainly we know that there

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Speaker 1: is still a ballistic missile program that is in place

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Speaker 1: there as well. So what is going to happen when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the country of Iran in the year

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: We will go ahead and ask Rebecca. China, another huge

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Speaker 1: issue that we have to pay very close attention to

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Speaker 1: was actually just on Monday that Hijianping sent his military

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Speaker 1: to perform some of the largest live fire drills in

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Speaker 1: the entire history of the Chinese military. This time it

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Speaker 1: was directed at you guessed it, at the island of Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: where they are really ramping up and ratcheting up the pressure. Clearly,

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Speaker 1: Shijinping wants to reabsorb Taiwan into China, much as Varim

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Speaker 1: Putin wants to reabsorb Ukraine and probably other places like

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Speaker 1: Georgia and Belaries as well into broader Russia. Will he

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Speaker 1: attempt something really crazy in the year twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I think probably not. What I do

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Speaker 1: know is that China remains the number one threat to

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Speaker 1: the United States, to the American citizen, and to the

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Speaker 1: American way of life throughout this presidency and frankly throughout

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Speaker 1: this century as well. And finally, that takes us to

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Speaker 1: one of these foremost allies, one of the stalwart allies

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Speaker 1: of Russia and China in our own hemisphere, and that

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Speaker 1: is Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela. This month's long pressure campaign

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Speaker 1: against Nicholas Maduro and his failed tinpot socialist communist state

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Speaker 1: seems to be reaching something of a boiling point and

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Speaker 1: something of a fever pitch. How much longer can this

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Speaker 1: pressure campaign go on? I don't really know the answer

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Speaker 1: to that. What I do know is that it can't

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Speaker 1: go on forever. At some point, there's gonna have to

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Speaker 1: be something that's gonna have to give. Maybe Madua will abdicate,

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Speaker 1: Maybe he may pull a Baucher alasade and flee to

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Speaker 1: the welcoming warm bosom of Lamyir Putin in Moscow. Maybe

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Speaker 1: he will stay in power. Maybe the US will actually

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Speaker 1: engage in tactical airstrikes.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: There are a lot of open questions there at What

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Speaker 1: I do know is that there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: a lot of unresolved conflicts around the world. As we

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Speaker 1: turn from twenty twenty five into twenty twenty six, Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's first year in office, the reputation is very much

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Speaker 1: that of a peacemaker and is a very very welldess

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Speaker 1: of reputation. Frankly, Donald Trump should have won the Nobel

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Speaker 1: Peace Prize for his efforts. If the Noble Peace Prize

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Speaker 1: was not catastrophically induced and afflicted with TDS Trump arrangement syndrome.

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Speaker 1: That didn't happen. There will twenty twenty six bring more

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Speaker 1: of the blessings of fruits? Or on the contrary, will

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Speaker 1: there be multiple one or multiple of these geopolitical hotspots

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Speaker 1: around the world that could explode into a large scale,

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Speaker 1: large scale tinder box or two. I don't know the answer.

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Speaker 1: What I do know is that we have to be

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Speaker 1: prepared for the worst, hope for the best, but always always.

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Speaker 2: Prepare for the worst.

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Speaker 1: So, as we're saying there in our introductory monologue, there

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Speaker 1: are no shortage of geopolitical hotspots right now, all around

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Speaker 1: the globe, pretty much everywhere you look, whether it is

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Speaker 1: South America our own hemispheric backyard, whether it's the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: whether it's in Europe, whether it's China ever encroaching on

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Speaker 1: Taiwan in the Indo Pacific, and many other hotspots in between.

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Speaker 1: We wanted to bring on the consummates expert to go

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Speaker 1: on and break it down for us, and that of

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Speaker 1: course is Rebecca Heinritz. Becca Hinrich is a senior fellow

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Speaker 1: at the Hudson Institute's one of our great thinkers when

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Speaker 1: it comes to foreign affairs, and generally you can follow

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Speaker 1: her on x at r L Heinrich. Rebecca Witching you

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Speaker 1: a very merry belated and Christmas an early happy New Year.

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Speaker 1: We really appreciate you joined the Josh Ammers Show.

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Speaker 3: Thanks so much, Josh, and Happy Hanaka to you.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so Recca. It's hard to know where to

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Speaker 2: start to.

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Speaker 1: Honestly, I thought that we would kind of just do

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Speaker 1: a bit a of a foreign policy Poe Pride is

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Speaker 1: kind of hopscotch your way around all of the all

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Speaker 1: all of the geopolitical hotspots. I want to get to

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Speaker 1: rush to the Ukraine. When I get to to Israel

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Speaker 1: with Zelenski and Netsiahu with their recent visits to Trump

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Speaker 1: and mar A Lago. I thought I would start, though,

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Speaker 1: with with Venezuela, which a situation that is rapidly escalating.

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Speaker 1: It's been escalating seemingly for months now, but it seems

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Speaker 1: like it's reaching something of a fever pitch, with Trump

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Speaker 1: recently acknowledging that the US did indeed strike this implementation area.

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Speaker 1: He's calling it this dock where some of these drug

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Speaker 1: voats were being loaded for possible shipment into the United

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Speaker 1: States In North America, there is some sort of blockade

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Speaker 1: around Venezuela right now. What is your read on the

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Speaker 1: current situation? Frankly, Rebecca, I didn't have this one on

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Speaker 1: my bingo card. If if you had ask me what

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Speaker 1: was gonna happen or in our own hemisphere back on

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Speaker 1: January twentieth, I wouldn't have thought that there'd be this

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Speaker 1: month's long pressure campaign against Nicholas Maduro. He's a very

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Speaker 1: bad actor, obviously, I just didn't necessarily see this level

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Speaker 1: of intense administration pressure coming.

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Speaker 2: What is your guests as to what happens.

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Speaker 1: Here in let's call the next two to three months

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Speaker 1: and in the foreseeable future and what should happen from

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Speaker 1: your perspective.

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Speaker 4: Great, So I don't think it was on anybody's BINGO card,

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Speaker 4: so it wasn't just your bad Bingo card. So one

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Speaker 4: thing I think is always notable as somebody who just

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Speaker 4: like you do comments very regularly on events, is you know,

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump actually has a very very high.

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Speaker 3: Tolerance to keep people waiting.

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Speaker 4: So he allows these pressure campaigns to just continue to

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Speaker 4: build and we're all kind of waiting for the next

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Speaker 4: thing or trying to understand it better, or something to break.

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Speaker 4: But he's pretty impervious to this sort of just pressure

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Speaker 4: to do something. So I think we might we might

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Speaker 4: still be in this phase of just cranking up pressure

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Speaker 4: for some time, even though it feels like we're reaching

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Speaker 4: kind of a culminating point. I don't know if we're

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Speaker 4: there yet. It seems to me that that what President

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Speaker 4: Trump wants. He obviously he wants the drugs to stop flowing.

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Speaker 4: And he keeps talking about the seaborne drugs or down eliminated,

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Speaker 4: you know, ninety eight percent or whatever the percentages. But

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Speaker 4: I think more than that, Maduro represents a regime that

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Speaker 4: is a drug regime. Has a symbiotic relationship. There's really

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Speaker 4: not a difference between the drug cartels and what they're

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Speaker 4: doing and Venezuelan government with Maduro in power, not only

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Speaker 4: that he has permitted these other adversaries into our own

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Speaker 4: hemisphere by backing him, the Chinese, the Russians. You know,

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Speaker 4: Trump tried to push out Maduro during his first administration,

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Speaker 4: was unsuccessful in part because they backed off day of

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Speaker 4: United We the United States backed off because the Russians

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Speaker 4: sent in troops to back Maduro, and so we didn't

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Speaker 4: want to have a conflict obviously with the Russians in Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: We're not seeing that.

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Speaker 4: This time because Russia is busy creating other problems in

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Speaker 4: Eastern Europe. But I clearly I think that Trump administrations

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Speaker 4: wants Maduro to go with the least cost to the

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Speaker 4: American people, so preferably we do not want to have

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Speaker 4: troops in Venezuela. But I do think that the president

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Speaker 4: seems to have very willing to do conduct air strikes

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Speaker 4: on the ground in Venezuela. That's going to make members

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Speaker 4: of Congress very uncomfortable, clearly, if they're not consulted and

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Speaker 4: have some kind of way in here, which I know

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Speaker 4: that there are many Republicans talking to the Trump administration

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Speaker 4: pushing for that before any other, you know, increased escalation

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Speaker 4: in terms of the United States directly launching strikes into Venezuela.

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Speaker 1: So a related question that follows directly off of that

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Speaker 1: about this question of strikes, the proverbial or literal use

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Speaker 1: of boots.

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Speaker 2: On the ground.

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Speaker 1: I mean, frankly, this term kind of gets bandoned about

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Speaker 1: as a talking point more often than the reality. But

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Speaker 1: this broad discussion also the recent intervention to strike some

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Speaker 1: ISIS militants in the Sokota State of Nigeria to save

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Speaker 1: the persecuted Belieguer Christians there. I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: folks Rebecka are looking at the Maduro pressure campaign and

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Speaker 1: this humanitarian intervention in Nigeria. And to be clear, it's

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Speaker 1: a completely righteous intervention, for sure, But I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of folks are looking at this and they're trying

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Speaker 1: to say, how does this fit into the Trump doctrine.

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Speaker 1: You know, it wasn't that long ago that I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of us were thinking about the Trump foreign

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Speaker 1: policy doctrine as being very sober and narrow minded, concrete

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Speaker 1: national interests, the notion of regime change for a lot

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Speaker 1: of people was tanta amount to kind of throw back

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Speaker 1: to the Bush era. Now, distinction that I've made many

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Speaker 1: times on this show is that it's very different. So

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Speaker 1: you have us militarily imposed regime changed in the one

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Speaker 1: tan versus just doing other sorts of tools to try

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Speaker 1: to try to implement a change regime. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: but nonetheless, I kind of want to kick over to you,

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Speaker 1: what is your attempt to kind of make sense from

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Speaker 1: a Trump doctrine perspective of the Maduro situation in this

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Speaker 1: more over the humanitarian situation in Nigeria as well.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think what the way, and I think

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Speaker 4: that Trump two is very different than Trump one and

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Speaker 4: Trump one. I think had you had more Republicans in

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Speaker 4: the administration, longtime Republicans, people like Mike Pompeo, a Urma Master,

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Speaker 4: or you know, others who lean more sort of conservative

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Speaker 4: conservative internationalist types were in power and try to put

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Speaker 4: some coherency in a grand strategy on the way President

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Speaker 4: Trump operates.

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Speaker 3: This time, we have much less of that, and.

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Speaker 4: So we have much more sort of raw Trumpian impulse

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Speaker 4: and the way President Trump oper rates. And I think

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Speaker 4: It can be best understood as President Trump wants to

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Speaker 4: do what is in the best interests of the United States,

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Speaker 4: that is doable, that is doable and doesn't drag the

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Speaker 4: United States.

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Speaker 3: Sounds so if you give me a problem.

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Speaker 4: You know, if you come in to President Trump and

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Speaker 4: you say, there's Christians being slaughtered in Nigeria by ISIS

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Speaker 4: or a variant of ISIS, and the Nigerian government is

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Speaker 4: going to let us wipe them out. We should do that, sir,

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Speaker 4: He'll say, great, let's do it, and then and so

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Speaker 4: and we'll do it. And the American people support it generally,

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Speaker 4: and it's not a long, dragged out campaign, military campaign.

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Speaker 4: It makes that area a bit safer for Christians, at

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Speaker 4: least in the case of Venezuela. You know, it's like, look,

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Speaker 4: we want to take out drugs that are just pouring

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Speaker 4: into the American you know, into the United States. Fentanyl,

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Speaker 4: of course, is the number one killer of Americans between

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Speaker 4: the ages of I think it's eighteen and thirty five

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Speaker 4: in the United States.

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Speaker 3: Fentanyl's not coming out of Venezuela. That's coc other things.

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Speaker 4: But there is this there is this sort of communist

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Speaker 4: operation with the drug cartels in our own hemisphere that

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Speaker 4: are sending in all kinds of drugs throughout the region.

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Speaker 4: And so I do think that there is now beginning

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Speaker 4: to be a bit of a theory here. Maybe it's

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Speaker 4: Marco Rubio who's developing, and I'm not quite sure who

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Speaker 4: the mind behind it does.

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Speaker 3: I think it's Rubio, but that.

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Speaker 4: If you can, maybe you can pressure these regimes to

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Speaker 4: stop this, this this car the cartel regime kind of relationship,

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Speaker 4: that you might be able to affect all of them,

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Speaker 4: because now you've seen these other these other countries are

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Speaker 4: starting to get nervous, and President Trump has said, look,

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Speaker 4: Venezuela might.

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Speaker 3: Not be the only country. We do this too.

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Speaker 4: And and so I think again, it's sort of it's

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Speaker 4: like whenever the Iran strikes whenever. When President Trump initiated

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Speaker 4: Operation Midnight Hammer, that was something that was incredibly doable,

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Speaker 4: but he still waited until it was as little risk

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Speaker 4: as possible to the Americans who are going to conduct

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Speaker 4: those strikes. He waited until Israel, of course did most

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Speaker 4: of the work and taking out air defenses, et cetera

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Speaker 4: in Iran. So I think that that's what he's doing.

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Speaker 4: It's much less it's much less of a grand strategy

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Speaker 4: starting with which would be my preference. China is the

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Speaker 4: biggest threat to the American way of life, and so

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Speaker 4: you have to start there and then kind of see

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Speaker 4: all of the parts, you know, how Iran fits into that,

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Speaker 4: how Russia fits into that, and develop a coherent strategy

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Speaker 4: work from there.

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Speaker 3: He's much more what.

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Speaker 4: Can I do with the least amount of harm to

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Speaker 4: the United States that's possibly doable, so I can achieve

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Speaker 4: an outcome, and I think we're.

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Speaker 3: Going to see some mixed results. Some of it's been.

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Speaker 4: Exceptionally good, and then you know, but we'll see what

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Speaker 4: the effect is at the end of the second term.

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Speaker 1: Rebecca Heimrich, because a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute,

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Speaker 1: follow her on x at url Heimris, you mentioned China.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna get the China momentarily. I very much am.

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Speaker 2: I think I was talking about that.

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Speaker 1: You know a lot of folks say they're China first,

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Speaker 1: and they kind of use that as a pejorative to say,

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Speaker 1: I don't really care about about other issues. Now I'm

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Speaker 1: China first, while still caring about other issues. I really

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Speaker 1: do think that China's most important foreign policy issue. I

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Speaker 1: also care about all the other issues as well. We'll

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Speaker 1: get the China just momentarily, but before then I thought

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Speaker 1: we would kind of just touch on a couple of

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Speaker 1: these very recent visits and mar Lago. You had Vladimir

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Speaker 1: Zelenski coming in on Sunday and then Natanyahu coming in

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Speaker 1: just yesterday on Monday. Let's let's take the one at

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Speaker 1: a time. Let's start with the Zelenski visit. Trump followed

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Speaker 1: his Zelenski powwow with a phone call to Laimir Putin.

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Speaker 1: And you know, you know, Trump says some shall we say,

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Speaker 1: funny things I guess black of better word at some

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Speaker 1: of these prescal conferences. I mean, he said, he said

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Speaker 1: in front of Zelenski that Pudin wants Ukraine to be

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Speaker 1: made great. It's not entirely obvious what he means by that,

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Speaker 1: other than maybe Putin just wants to gobble up Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: I guess that's really Putin's vision of making Ukraine great.

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Speaker 1: This situation, to me, right, Rebecca, is so frustrating because

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Speaker 1: I feel like the rough contours of what a peace

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Speaker 1: deal looks like have been so screamingly obvious for the

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Speaker 1: past two to three years, and the parties just just

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Speaker 1: just for for xyz reasons just just can't get there.

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Speaker 1: I think the administration frankly deserves a lot of credit

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Speaker 1: for working as hard as they.

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Speaker 2: Have trying to get this peace deal in place. CLA.

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Speaker 1: It's not quite working though, So what has to happen

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Speaker 1: what is not currently happening that you think has to

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Speaker 1: happen primarily but perhaps not exclusively from an American perspective

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Speaker 1: in terms of trying to get these two parties to

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Speaker 1: actually reach a deal.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So on the first thing, in terms of the comments

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Speaker 4: that President Trump says whenever he's in the middle of

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Speaker 4: negotiating things, and I try to remind people, you know,

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Speaker 4: go back and think about the first term too. He

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Speaker 4: said flattering things about Kim Jung un whenever he was

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Speaker 4: trying to respond to North Korea's you know, illicit missile

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Speaker 4: testing and was preparing for a nuclear test, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: And so we had this big push to have peace with.

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Speaker 4: North Korea, and President Trump said all kinds of flattering

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Speaker 4: things about Kim jungun. It's almost like President Trump is

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Speaker 4: taking sort of how he operates in the business world,

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Speaker 4: and he almost tries to will things into being.

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Speaker 3: Reality when they're clearly not reality, and.

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Speaker 4: So it is odd, it can be off putting, But

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Speaker 4: once you realize that this is kind of how he

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Speaker 4: does it and doesn't necessarily mean anything materially about the

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Speaker 4: substance of the negotiations, then you know you can kind

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Speaker 4: of be.

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Speaker 3: Put at ease at least a little bit.

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Speaker 4: No, clearly, Russia is still if vladivra Putin had his way,

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Speaker 4: he wants to subjugate all of you, all of Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: He believes that Ukraine belongs to this greater Russia, and

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Speaker 4: so Putin is going to take whatever he can, whatever

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Speaker 4: he can get away with.

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Speaker 3: And I think that Zelensky I don't like.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Zolensky has really he had a lot more

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Speaker 4: willingness to push back on President Trump to he was

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Speaker 4: was a little cock here in the beginning of this

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Speaker 4: of this administration. I think President Trump has sort of

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Speaker 4: put that to rest and now said, look, you're going

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Speaker 4: to have to listen to the way the United States

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Speaker 4: is going to negotiate this. So you know, Ukraine I

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Speaker 4: think has come a long way in Dolensky's willingness to

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Speaker 4: negotiate and to try to come up to a peaceful resolution,

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Speaker 4: at least temporarily. It's Russia that remains completely unwilling to

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Speaker 4: bend at all. And so Zelenski even said, I thought

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Speaker 4: Brettbahar had a great interview for Fox with Zelensky where

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Speaker 4: Zalynsky said, look, if we if we've voted right now,

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Speaker 4: eighty five percent of Ukrainians like want this war to

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Speaker 4: be over. We want peace, but eighty five percent also

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Speaker 4: do not want to surrender territory that the Russians have

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Speaker 4: not already taken through force. So if the Russians can't

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Speaker 4: take this fortified area of dun Esque, they haven't been

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Speaker 4: able to take it since twenty fourteen. If Ukraine surrenders that,

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Speaker 4: and there's like there's men in there right now, I

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Speaker 4: mean they're defending it. They've been defending it now for years.

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Speaker 4: They don't want to give it up. There's people living

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Speaker 4: around that area, they don't they see themselves as Ukrainian

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Speaker 4: and they don't want to give it up. And so

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Speaker 4: Zelenski says, look, I'd be willing to even put this

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Speaker 4: to a vote. Now, you want to have.

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Speaker 3: A referendum, let's do that, something that he's been unwilling

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Speaker 3: to do. Until this point.

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Speaker 4: But in order to do that, you have to have

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Speaker 4: a ceasefire. It has to be peaceful for people to

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Speaker 4: come out and vote. And now the Russians are like,

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Speaker 4: we're not going to do that though, And the Russians

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Speaker 4: were refused.

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Speaker 3: To have a ceasefire before there is a peace deal,

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Speaker 3: which makes no sense to me at all.

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Speaker 4: So and then now, of course you have a little

434
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 4: bit of it's being sorted out I think in the media,

435
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 4: and we'll hear what our own intelligence community says. But

436
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 4: the Russians are claiming that during these high stakes negotiations

437
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 4: that the Ukrainians launched an attack, an attempted attack on

438
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 4: Putin's own residents, which Ukrainians have disputed. They said, we

439
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 4: have not done that, but Putin told President Trump that

440
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,199
Speaker 4: that's what the Ukrainians did as well. So there's a

441
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 4: lot of just you know, wrong information I think coming

442
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 4: out of Moscow trying to really muddy the waters.

443
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 3: And make this very difficult.

444
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 4: My last point, I would just say, Josh, I think

445
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 4: the way this is going to end. I appreciate President

446
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 4: Trump pushing for these talks, I really do, and I

447
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 4: think it's going to get us in a better position.

448
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 3: For what security guarantees.

449
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 4: Look like for Ukraine, rebuilding Ukraine, you know, bolstering Eastern Europe,

450
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,479
Speaker 4: which I think is necessary to prevent Russia from testing

451
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 4: the waters outside of Ukraine. All of that is very

452
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 4: overdue and necessary, and Europeans have to step up and

453
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 4: rearm and provide the bulk of that. So all of

454
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 4: this is going to move us towards that, which is great.

455
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 4: I do think we're going to have to increase pressure

456
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 4: on the Russians. The Russians simply are just they are

457
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 4: not feeling like they need to make any concessions. And

458
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 4: I do think that means we're going to have to

459
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 4: ramp up selling weapons to Ukraine or selling weapons to

460
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 4: the Europeans that they can send them to Ukraine.

461
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 3: And I think it.

462
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 4: Means more crushing sanctions on Russia and getting back and

463
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 4: President Trump, I think was in a better place on this,

464
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 4: sort of clearly on the side of NATO and Ukraine

465
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 4: and pressuring Russia a few months ago, and I think

466
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 4: we need to get back to that if we are

467
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 4: going to have anything like even like a ceasefire temporarily.

468
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, it does seem like Trump has shifted a little

469
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 1: bit so around October, giver take has Tona shifted in

470
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 1: a notably more pro Zolensky anti pun direction. And you know,

471
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: now it's a little hard to tell, so it's entirely

472
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 1: clear exactly what's going on. But Rebecca, real quick, before

473
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 1: we move on to the Middle East, I kind of

474
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 1: one your thumbs up thumbs down prediction here. Do you

475
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 1: think we have a peace deal or a ceasefire in

476
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: Rushi Ukraine in twenty twenty six.

477
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 4: Or no, I don't, No, I don't, but I do

478
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 4: my I think sort of best case, best best case

479
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: scenario that is most likely is frozen along the lines

480
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 4: of contact right now between Ukraine and Russia, with a

481
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 4: bolstered Ukrain ability to defend itself, hold the line and

482
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 4: then hopefully rebuilding its own society. And then you know,

483
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 4: a stronger, stronger NATO, a stronger NATO so that the

484
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 4: United States is not providing the bulk of the conventional defense.

485
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 4: But that's Europe, and that, to me is going to

486
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 4: be the best most realistic scenario.

487
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: Fair enough, And I hope that you're wrong. I fear

488
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 1: you probably are not wrong, whatever whatever it's worth. So

489
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: let's move on to another troubled part of the world,

490
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: a perennially perpetually troubled part of the world, as the

491
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 1: case may be. I speak of course, of the Middle East.

492
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: There's all sorts of brand new developments actually in the

493
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 1: country of Yemen. When it comes to this somewhat bizarre

494
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 1: orchane dispute between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

495
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 2: That's a little outside of.

496
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 1: The confines of our conversations, very in the weed stuff,

497
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: but it was just breaking this morning. I'm definitely starting

498
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 1: to monitor it a little more closely. We'll see what

499
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 1: happens there when it comes to the ongoing decade longth

500
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 1: civil war in Yemen. But sticking right now with Nantia,

501
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 1: who's visit to Israel. So he was there on Monday,

502
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 1: just yesterday, Rebecca. This seemed to me to be a

503
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 1: very warm meeting between these two men who clearly share

504
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 1: a natural liking and sympathy for one another. Trump seems

505
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 1: to genuinely like bibing Nantia Nyakhu as a human being

506
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 1: based on all that I can tell there, and they

507
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: seem to agree basically on what the Israelis came to present.

508
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: So it seems that the Israelis brought their assessment of

509
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 1: the current state of the Iranian ballistic missile program and

510
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 1: the nuclear program. It's now been six and a half

511
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: months since the B two bombers, since Operation Midnight Hammer.

512
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 1: We know that contrary to that classic trumpy and braggadocio,

513
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 1: we know that the nuclear program is not obliterated. Rather,

514
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 1: it was definitely dealt a very heavy blow set back

515
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 1: by Xyz years. We can kind of debate exactly what

516
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: the assessment is there. What do you think is the

517
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: administration's mentality right now, Rebecca, when it comes not just

518
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 1: to the bilateral US Israel relationship, but also to all

519
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 1: the various Islamic radical organizations and state sponsors in the

520
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: Middle East. Because it's a little hard to tell, right

521
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 1: because on the one hand, they're very sympathetic to this

522
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 1: new Islamist sympathetic if not just our Iselmust regime in Damascus, Syria.

523
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 1: They're definitely playing very nice with the rest of type

524
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 1: Ertawan's Turkey, which is a huge supporter of Hamas and

525
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: the Muslim Brotherhood there. On the other hand, they're definitely

526
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: playing very very nice with Israel. They still seem to

527
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: take the Iranian threat very seriously. So it's somewhat hard

528
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 1: to figure out exactly where they stand when it comes

529
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: to radical Islam than the Middle East in general. Kind

530
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 1: of curious just for your general take on all the above.

531
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 4: So I think that one I think you always be

532
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 4: and this is a consistent now consistent from the first

533
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 4: Trump administration the second Trump administration, was that key to

534
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 4: any stability in the Middle East is going to be

535
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 4: complete and total solidarity with Israel. So that's like, you know,

536
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 4: starting that's President Trump clearly has that very clear in

537
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 4: his own mind. And despite some maybe pressure even from

538
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 4: the far right of the of the Trump base or

539
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 4: those who voted for President Trump, they wanted more distance

540
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 4: between the United States and Israel, and certainly Trump and

541
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,640
Speaker 4: beating at in Yahoo and maybe from those advisors even

542
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 4: inside the administration. So there was some chatter about that

543
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 4: coming out in the in the media, reporting of people

544
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 4: trying to push President Trump to separate himself, and he

545
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:05,719
Speaker 4: won't do it.

546
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 3: He won't.

547
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:07,959
Speaker 4: Not only will he not do it, but it's almost

548
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 4: like he's like doubly over the top. And his compliments

549
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 4: of beating it in Yahoo and his leadership of Israel.

550
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 3: So that I think is obvious.

551
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 4: That's very very clear that he understands that US interests

552
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 4: are inextricably tied to the success of Israel and it

553
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 4: being secure in the region. And he President Trump was

554
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 4: very clear that if Iran does, you know, build its

555
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 4: ballistic missile program, rebuild it, which it is. It's been

556
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 4: getting help from China. China's providing some of these precursors

557
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 4: needed for the solid rocket fuel to that Iran desperately needs.

558
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 4: And so that has been ongoing for the last several months,

559
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 4: and so there Israel is obviously going to keep a

560
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 4: close eye on that. Remind people that one of the

561
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 4: big reasons I was not supportive of the Iran deal

562
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 4: during the Obama administration for many reasons, but one of

563
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 4: them was it didn't include the missile program, and you

564
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 4: need the missile program goes hand in glove with the

565
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 4: nuclear program, So why would you let it build out

566
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 4: its ballistic missile fleet and improve on its ICBM capability.

567
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 3: The Iranians are back to launching satellites again.

568
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 4: Satellite launches are directly that technology is directly applicable to

569
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 4: an intercontinentiballistic missile, which means they could reach Americans.

570
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 3: So you can't let them have that.

571
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 4: And then, of course President Trump said, and if they

572
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 4: were to sort of reconstitute and sort of work begin

573
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 4: development again on their nuclear on the nuclear piece specifically,

574
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 4: that it would immediately that it should be destroyed. And

575
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 4: as you pointed out, Josh, you know, my nuclear deterrence

576
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 4: and counterproliferation is kind of my specialty, what I really

577
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 4: focus on. And for years what we have said is

578
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 4: that even if you blow up you know, four doh,

579
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 4: these natans, these these nuclear facilities, nobody was under the

580
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 4: illusion that it would completely eliminate every single particle of

581
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 4: its nuclear program and.

582
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 3: That would be the end of it.

583
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 4: It would significantly degrade it make it very very difficult

584
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 4: to operate and to work in there, to get the

585
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 4: scientists back in there, and it sets back the program.

586
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 4: It buys us time, and then you have to keep

587
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 4: pressure on the regime to make sure that they don't reconstitute.

588
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 4: So everything is actually going according to from our side,

589
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 4: what we can manage and what the Israelis can manage

590
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 4: are according to plan. It's up to the Iran government

591
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 4: if they're going to be so foolish as to try

592
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 4: to get scientists back in there and rebuild it when

593
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 4: the Israelis in the United States is watching so closely.

594
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 4: And then to your point about Islamism around the region,

595
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 4: I think that that the Trump administration is just looking

596
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,680
Speaker 4: at regimes that are just going to be generally cooperative

597
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 4: with the United States and not proxies of the Iran regime.

598
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 4: So Syria seems to fit into that category right now.

599
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 4: I agree with you, We've got some major problems with

600
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 4: the leadership in Syria right now, but at least it's

601
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 4: not you know, it's not it's not a sad and

602
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 4: so I think that that's kind of what we're doing

603
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 4: with what we're.

604
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 3: Dealing with, and same with with Turkey. What can we

605
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 3: get out of them?

606
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 4: What can we get out with the Emordies, you know,

607
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 4: the Egyptians, et cetera.

608
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 3: And then you point it out Yemen. You know, Mmen

609
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 3: has been a proxy for Iran.

610
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 4: Iran has tried to make Yemen a proxy, and so

611
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 4: that's where the Huthis obviously have been operating out of

612
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:08,719
Speaker 4: And so it's been the Amorandis and the Saudis who

613
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 4: have really been hammering to make sure that Yemen does

614
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 4: not become a totally you know, proxy state of the

615
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 4: Iran regime. So that's basically I think how the Trump

616
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 4: administration sees it.

617
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: Seems like sober analysis to me.

618
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: Rebecca Himris again is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute,

619
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: clearly a woman who knows what she is talking about.

620
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: Follow her on x at r Alheimris Rebecca as we

621
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: continue our tour eastward, I do want to touch on

622
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: the aforementioned threats of the Chinese Communist Party. It actually

623
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: was just on Monday that the PLA, the People's Liberation Army,

624
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 1: the military of the Chinese Communist Party engage in some

625
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: of the largest live fire military drills that they've ever

626
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: done when it comes to Taiwan, up to and including

627
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: full simulated blockades of all of Taiwan's ports. There're certainly

628
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 1: ramping up the pressure. I feel like it's been going

629
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: on for a long time. I mean part of me,

630
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: Rebecca kind of looks at the and says, you know,

631
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 1: if you guys are going to act on this, you

632
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 1: really should have done it under the Bond administration, when

633
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: he had a president who was just totally asleep at

634
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: the wheel, who didn't even know what the difference between

635
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 1: China and Russia and Iran. Was I mean, are you

636
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 1: really gonna test Donald Trump right now? I mean maybe,

637
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 1: I mean, but clearly it's it's deeply concerning. And what

638
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 1: I what I said to my show recently was I

639
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: encouraged the administration to not take the foot off the

640
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: gas pedal of China. There was a potentially troubling recent

641
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 1: phone call that Trump had with the brand new, precocious

642
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Japan basically trying to kind of coax

643
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: her into maybe lowering down the decibel of her rhetoric

644
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 1: when it comes to China Taiwan. Japan had previously threatened

645
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 1: military action if China had invaded Taiwan. There and my

646
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: stance is, basically, this is not the right time to

647
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: be telling our allies like Japan, Philippines, et cetera, to

648
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 1: take their foot off the gas pedal. Frankly, I think

649
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: it should be all hands on deck when it comes

650
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: to China and Taiwan. I assume you view it similarly,

651
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 1: But what would what would your advice to foreign policy

652
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 1: makers at this time be when it comes to China

653
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: More broadly, I guess Taiwana particular.

654
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 4: No, I totally agree with you. I mean that now

655
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 4: is the time to be backing our allies. I mean

656
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:09,239
Speaker 4: this is this is actually just a great reaganie, you know,

657
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 4: page out of his playbook in the Cold War, which

658
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 4: is you just you back the countries that are closer

659
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 4: to the problem, closer to our shared adversary, and who

660
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 4: are standing up to them. And that's what Japan is doing.

661
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 4: We have an amazing new ally leader government in Japan,

662
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 4: and she's wildly popular among especially young Japanese. I don't

663
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 4: think that she's sort of one of these like picking

664
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 4: for a fight, you know, looking for a fight. She's

665
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 4: not that, she's not reckless, but she's tough. She's very

666
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 4: very pro Japan, she's very very careful, and she has

667
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 4: been I think very prudently and understandably pushing back on

668
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 4: Chinese aggression against Japanese equities in the region.

669
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 3: And so I agree with you.

670
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 4: I think that now's the time for President Trump to

671
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 4: be encouraging her and backing her and providing diplomatic cover

672
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 4: for her public even and this kind of goes back.

673
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 4: This is the corollary to the first point I said

674
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 4: about the Trump doctrine, where President Trump wants to.

675
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 3: He likes to get these wins in defense.

676
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 4: Policy and geopolitically at a low cost to the Americans

677
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 4: that are achievable. But of course a corollary to that

678
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 4: is he seems to be pretty risk averse when it

679
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 4: comes to contending with peer adversaries. And that's where it

680
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,719
Speaker 4: gets me a little bit uncomfortable because the president, you know,

681
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 4: his advisors should be encouraging him though that if you

682
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 4: if you look like you're in any way week or

683
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,719
Speaker 4: backing down to our peer adversaries or near peer adversaries

684
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 4: China or Russia because of its nuclear program, if you

685
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 4: kind of back away, they just take that. They just

686
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 4: you give an inch, they take a mile. And so

687
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 4: you know, now is the time, I agree with you

688
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 4: to be bolstering our allies much closer to the threat,

689
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 4: who are doing a lot and this this blockade, this

690
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 4: new military you know, flexing their muscles, the Chinese flexing

691
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 4: their muscles around Taiwan. They're doing that in response to

692
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 4: the United States to prove the largest weapons sale of

693
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 4: military equipment and weapons to Taiwan, which I think is great.

694
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 4: We have a backlog. We haven't even delivered everything. They've

695
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 4: already purchased, so we need to get at that. But

696
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 4: that's what this is in response to. And so it's

697
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 4: you know, now is not the time to.

698
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 3: Be you know, hitting the brakes.

699
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 4: You got it. You got to hit the gas so

700
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 4: that the Chinese know that they should not move on

701
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 4: Taiwan and they should not test the United States.

702
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: So I do I do have one final substance question

703
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: for you before lego, but before the final question, just

704
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: very quick, you know, similar kind of thumbs of thumbs

705
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: down fallow up to those remarks. Did you think that

706
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: that China actually does make a legitimate move for Taiwan

707
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: during this second Trump presidency?

708
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't.

709
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 4: I don't as long as as long as we keep

710
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 4: doing things like this weapon sale to Taiwan, I think

711
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 4: we need a correct course and back the Japanese. I

712
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 4: think we need to make sure that we're not removing

713
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 4: US troops from South Korea or Japan, which Congress has

714
00:33:57,840 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 4: already kind of put the marker down saying we're not

715
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 4: going to approve that. I think that my assessment has

716
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:08,879
Speaker 4: always been Hijin Ping will move on Taiwan as soon

717
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 4: as he believes that the United States will either not

718
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,800
Speaker 4: come to the defense of Taiwan or is just simply

719
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 4: ill prepared that we might try and then back out

720
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 4: of it because we're not going to win, and because

721
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 4: he really, I mean that his political will to fight

722
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:25,919
Speaker 4: is going to be very, very high if he goes

723
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 4: against Taiwan, and he's gonna want to win. And so

724
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,439
Speaker 4: I'm very worried about the possibility of the highest levels

725
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 4: of violence with a country that is going gangbusters on

726
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 4: their own nuclear weapons program right now. And so I

727
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,879
Speaker 4: think that as long as the United States demonstrates that

728
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 4: Taiwan is still a core interest of the United States,

729
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 4: it does not want Taiwan to be subjugated by the

730
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 4: Chinese Economist Party, and that we remain committed to making

731
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 4: sure that there's a free and open Indo Pacific, and

732
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 4: that means that China cannot push the United States out.

733
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 4: As long as we keep pushing that and then demonstrates

734
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 4: to get through building our own defense industrial base and

735
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 4: supporting our allies, I think we keep China deterred. And

736
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 4: so I agree with you, though I thought man did

737
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 4: the Biden administration when things were sort of falling apart.

738
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 4: It's kind of wild to me that she's in pain,

739
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 4: didn't make a go for it.

740
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I agree with you for what I was

741
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: worth in this second Trump term. Now having said that,

742
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 1: if Gavin Newsom er god forbid, Jasmine Crockett AOC is

743
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 1: in the White House, god forbid come January twenty twenty nine,

744
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 1: I think all that's are off at that point, But

745
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 1: for the next few years, I definitely tend to agree

746
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,399
Speaker 1: with your analysis. Rebecca, You've been amazing, so real quick

747
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 1: before I let you go, just one final question for you.

748
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 1: This is really not really particularly to current events, but

749
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 1: kind of just zooming out a little bit. You and

750
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 1: I chat a lot, both publicly and offline about the

751
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 1: states of the rights more generally and all these current

752
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 1: wins that are blowing and cross blowing there, and I

753
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: kind of want to just take your sense as to

754
00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: how you feel about the future. I'm gonna call conservative

755
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: foreign policy because that's self explanatory. I mean that doesn't

756
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 1: need to be kind of gained out, but kind of

757
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: going with like the more part is in part of this,

758
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 1: I thinking about the Republican Party and a post Trump

759
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: Republican Party. What are your current thoughts is the various

760
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 1: ways that that foreign policy could emerge after twenty twenty eight.

761
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 3: Well, so, one of the.

762
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 4: Things I tell people, I am a conservative, So I'm

763
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 4: dispositionally conservative. I believe in certain things that make me

764
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 4: a sort of a conservative internationalist. That doesn't mean that

765
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 4: everything that I prescribe in foreign policy I would expect

766
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 4: everybody who's also a conservative to agree with it. It takes

767
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 4: enormous amount of you know, just it's just study and thought,

768
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 4: and people are going to come away with different, different ideas.

769
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 4: What I am most concerned about, though, is there does

770
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 4: seem to be a part of the Republican Party they

771
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 4: code right wing, I think sort of philosophically may this

772
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 4: is for another longer podcast where we just talk about this.

773
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 4: They're not even philosophically conservative, and yet they are part

774
00:36:59,960 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 4: of the Republican coalition, or at least they say they

775
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 4: voted for Trump, you know, multiple times, et cetera.

776
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 3: But maybe they hadn't voted for Republicans before.

777
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 4: But I do believe that they are They're not conservative,

778
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 4: and they are they've manifest.

779
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 3: As anti Semitic.

780
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 4: They don't believe in the United States having a strong

781
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,479
Speaker 4: leadership role in the world. They you know, you see

782
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 4: some members of Congress, like Marjorie Taylor Green now who's

783
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 4: on the oules with President Trump, but she didn't used

784
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 4: to be, and she gets frustrated when she sees President

785
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 4: Trump even talking with world leaders, like she thinks that

786
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 4: the president United States should just be sort of looking inward.

787
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 3: It's like, you know, the United States.

788
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 4: Regardless of what you think the United States should do

789
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 4: to end the war in Ukraine, or to back Israel,

790
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 4: or to you know, keep China at bay, all of

791
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 4: us should want the United States to have the capacity,

792
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 4: the strength, and the influence to move in the world

793
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 4: on terms that benefit the American people.

794
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 3: And we are a global superpower.

795
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,839
Speaker 4: We are the global superpower, and we want to use

796
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 4: our power for good of the American people, the American

797
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 4: way of life, and that requires the President of the

798
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 4: United States to engage with foreign leaders. So I'm a

799
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 4: little bit concerned with this sort of far right flank

800
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 4: that's you know, like they pushed conspiracy theories, and I think,

801
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 4: and I've written about this, I think that the conspiracy

802
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 4: theories are really meant to confuse Americans about who we

803
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 4: even are and what our role is in the world,

804
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 4: what our relative power is to our adversaries. Who is

805
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 4: our adversaries and who are our adversaries and so but

806
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 4: my hope, my hope is that there will be Republican

807
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:43,879
Speaker 4: leadership that will come up and will sort of put

808
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 4: put you know, put these people in their place, and

809
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 4: essentially say there is no Republican coalition, there's no conservative

810
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,439
Speaker 4: coalition with people who reject the idea that America is good,

811
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 4: it's good for the world, and that it's good for

812
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 4: us to be strong and to be the strongest superpower

813
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 4: and to back our allies and to you know, try

814
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 4: to deter major power conflicts so that we can live

815
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,280
Speaker 4: at peace. That's my hope. But I think we really

816
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 4: are in a time for choosing right now, and it's

817
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 4: very dynamic, and so I always appreciate you, Josh, to

818
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 4: stay in the fight and pushing back on this really

819
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 4: dangerous wing, I think, and it's going to just take

820
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 4: ideas fighting ideas, and may the better ideas prevail.

821
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 2: Thank you.

822
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,879
Speaker 1: And likewise, Rebecca, and you know, one final thing I'll

823
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 1: say is that a lot of these folks, I mean,

824
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:29,399
Speaker 1: in addition to being conspiracists, racist and de semites, again,

825
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 1: not all of them but definitely some of them. In

826
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 1: addition to that, they have a rather curious view of

827
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 1: history too, right, don't they? I mean a lot of them,

828
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 1: like to quote George Washington's Farewell address, this notion of

829
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 1: being aware of foreign entanglements, and to be clear that

830
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 1: that's a probatally fine and suitable sentiments actually, But at

831
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 1: the same time, there was the X Y Z affair,

832
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 1: which is a total foreign affair kerfuffle in the later

833
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 1: Washingt administration. They're also the Barbary Wars, so the first

834
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 1: and second Barbary Wars in the Jefferson presidency when it

835
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 1: comes to fighting these Muslim pirates there. I mean, it's

836
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 1: just a very very bizarre view of history, frankly, and

837
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 1: a rewriting history many ways as well. But in any event, Rebecca,

838
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 1: I share your sentiments made the best ideas when and

839
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: we're proud to I'm so only proud to count to

840
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: you not only as a friend but of someone who

841
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: is on the sober side of all these issues. One

842
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 1: fall on time, folks. Rebeccahim Risu is a senior fellow

843
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 1: at the Hudson Institute. You can follow her on x

844
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 1: at rl HEIMERSUS Brekley been very generous for the time,

845
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 1: wishing you a very happy new year. May twenty twenty

846
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:26,920
Speaker 1: six be a wonderful year for all of us and

847
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 1: for these great United.

848
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 3: States you too, Thanks so much, Josh

849
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: And thank you for watching day's episode of The Josh

850
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: Hemmers