WEBVTT - The Big Weekend Pod 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.760 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:19.000 iTunes and Hillsdale Morning Glory and even Grace America. And 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:21.720 here's the Big Weekend pod. I'm Hugh Hewett. Thank you 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:24.920 for listening. Big line up today, John ellis of course 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:27.560 with the news items of great import that you may 0:00:27.560 --> 0:00:30.480 have missed this week. Be following it up with Eli Lake. 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:32.599 We'll be talking about Iron, as I will be with 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:36.519 Matt Continei and Ben Dominicic as well. Look at a possible, 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:39.920 as I said on America Reports yesterday John Roberts, possible 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:44.239 that Iron will capitulate and simply say, hey, we're going 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:46.680 to open up the kimono, Come get our missiles, come 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:50.400 get our uranium. It's what Kadafi did in two thousand 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:52.640 and three December two thousand and three through the spring 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:54.800 of two thousand and four, after the invasion of Rock 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:57.640 had marched up to Bagdad Kadafi saw what the United 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:00.680 States military could do, and he said, okay, out come 0:01:00.720 --> 0:01:03.160 get all my bad stuff, and we did go and 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:06.280 get all of his bad stuff. Could the Iranians make 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:06.839 that deal. 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:07.840 I don't know. 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:10.760 I don't think actually a regime is capable of doing that. 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:14.000 But could a new regime put a bullet in the 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:17.280 back of Himene's head and decide, no, we're not going 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:18.440 to go down with this ship. 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:21.399 These people are crazy. Yeah, that's possible, but it. 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:23.160 Would be a new regime, Like there's a new regime 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:27.240 in Venezuela that is cooperating with President Trump and the 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:30.720 rest of the administration in the transition to something new 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.319 and something that doesn't threaten the United States or the 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:37.720 people of Venezuela. That transition undeterminate yet how long it 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:40.080 will go. But I'll talk with all my guests about 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:45.280 that today. Plus Japan takes a Chinese shipping boat. We'll 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:49.360 start there with John Ellis on this big weekend pod. 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:52.440 Thank you for listening, Glory and even Graves in America. 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:54.960 I hope your Valentine's Day weekend is off to a 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:58.280 good start. I'm starting the program today with John Allis, 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:01.240 founder and editor in chief of News Items, your morning 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:03.920 newsletter on everything that's important in the world. Get rid 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:06.000 of everything else. You can stick with news items and 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:09.000 be well read. John, I had no idea until you 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:11.079 sent me the note that we got a little crisis 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:13.680 brewing in the South China Sea. I didn't know that 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:17.360 Prime Minister Takaichi had won a thumping, big victory last Sunday, 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:21.000 did not know that Japan had seized a Chinese fishing 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:25.480 vessel within their exclusive economic zone and China is not happy. 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:28.920 How goes that situation, Well. 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:29.359 It's interesting. 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.000 I think it's the most important story of the day, 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:34.560 and it may, you know, become more important as the 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:39.359 day's passed. But if you go back to November, Takeishi 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:43.840 was newly installed as the Prime minister. She was asked 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.959 what would happen if China invaded Taiwan, and she said, 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:51.160 Japan could become involved if that were to occur. The 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.280 Chinese completely flipped out about that. They said, mind your 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:58.320 own business, you know, you have no right to even 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.440 think that, and they and they put down, you know, 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:03.720 some market, you know, tourists from. 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:05.600 China could go to Japan. Whatever. 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:10.840 She then last weekend was elected her party got a 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:14.440 two thirds majority in the Diet, which is the Japanese Congress, 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:18.680 and you know, she won a landslide victory. And here 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:21.680 we are five days later and a Chinese fishing boat 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:27.000 is in Japanese water. The Japanese seized the fishing boat 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:30.680 and they arrest the captain. And so that's where we're 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:33.959 at right now. But the one thing that President g 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:39.880 has simply can't allow is for him to appear week 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:44.600 and at the moment he appears weak because the Chinese 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:45.960 haven't done anything yet. 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:47.520 So we'll see what. 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:55.160 I would also add to what into her newly elected status. 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:59.240 It's a fairly bold move and one I think that well. 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:02.560 I surprised it wasn't on the front page of every 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:05.000 major news website. 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:07.160 Now you brought to my attention and I immediately went 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:09.000 to see what have we got there? The Lincoln was 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:11.480 on patrol in the South China Sea. That George Washington 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:13.840 is back in Yakuska in the homeport. We do have 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:19.159 a big deck Tripoli US Marine Corps carrying ship out there, 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:21.520 and it's a big deck. But we really don't need 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:23.720 another crisis in the world right now. With two carriers 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:25.599 on their way to off the coast of Iran. So 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:28.640 good heads up on that. Let's go to the good 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:32.120 news in your briefing that you sent me Alzheimer's A 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:35.640 I'm covered on coffee. I'm not sure I'm covered on 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:38.760 language unless high school Latin counts. Let people know about 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:41.000 how to ward off Alzheimer's and dementia. 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:43.839 So there are two stories today. 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:48.240 One is that caffeine reduces your risk of Alzheimer's, and 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:52.000 it's a huge study conducted over forty three years. Two 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:54.240 or three cups of coffee a day, two or three 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:58.159 cups of tea a day reduces your risk of inflation of. 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.560 It reduces it reduces your risk. 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:09.080 Hope that might be why the number came in today. 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:15.080 Sorry about that reduces your risk of dementia and you know, 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:17.240 as I said, it's a huge study. So that was 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:20.320 encouraging news, particularly for me because I get up very 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:21.440 early in the morning. 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:22.640 And drink a fair amount of coffee. 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:27.080 The second is that if you if you keep engaged intellectually, 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:30.080 if you read, if you write, if you do puzzles, 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:34.599 you know, if you stay active, if you learn the language, 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:40.240 it reduces your risk of dementia by forty percent. So 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:44.000 the advice is to start reading, start writing, and start 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:44.839 doing puzzles. 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:47.760 And well, I work with Dwayne every day, so I'm 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:49.880 covered on the puzzles too. But yeah, one thing they 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:52.120 never tell you in these studies on caffeine is I 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:53.920 don't know anyone who drinks three cups of coffee. He 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:55.960 doesn't drink five cups of coffee. So I'm the five 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.600 cup of copy a guy day. Does it decline? Did 0:05:58.600 --> 0:05:59.720 you get to the small print? 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:02.520 I didn't get to the small print. 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:04.960 I was so excited about the first paragraph that I 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:07.240 didn't read it anymore. 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:10.200 Now you have to explain to me the AI story 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:12.840 you sent me, because the numbers are mind boggling on 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:15.359 the speed with which AI can compute or likely to 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:16.920 compute in the next twenty years. 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:24.640 Yeah, there's a research group called METR and they built 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:31.440 a simple model for forecasting when AI will automate AI development. Okay, 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:35.960 so essentially the AI will wrote write the code, and 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:40.360 at current rate I'm going to quote from the research article, 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:45.560 at current rates of compute growth and algorithmic progress, this 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:51.880 model's median prediction is ninety nine percent automation of AI 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:57.440 R and D in late twenty thirty two, So six 0:06:57.520 --> 0:07:03.320 years from today, all code, all AI code, will be 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:04.360 written by AI. 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:05.719 And that is. 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:17.480 That it has enormously positive implications because if genetics is 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:21.640 code as well, there are four letters and three billion 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:25.440 base pairs, So if your AI is able to write 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:28.320 that code, then we'll have a much better understanding of 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:32.800 every disease. It will be astonishing. On the other hand, 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:40.560 there are no guardrails to code writing code. There's no structure, 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.880 there's no salt talk if you will, that that nations 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:46.720 all agree on and how it should develop. So it 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:48.680 could be that the machines win. 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:52.240 In the absence of an agreement, everyone goes fast as 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:55.720 you can, which may lead to why people are so gloomy. 0:07:56.360 --> 0:08:00.680 The poll that you brought from Pew about the percentage 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:04.000 of US adults who anticipate living high quality lives in 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:08.840 five years down to under sixty percent. I find that astonishing. 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:14.280 John ellis, Yeah, it was actually a gallup pole. But 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:18.360 they've been, you know, they've been tracking this forever, and 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:22.640 it is truly discouraging because people in the US are 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:27.000 you know, discouraged, and the younger they are, the more 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:30.760 discouraged they are. So it's something that needs to be 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:33.720 turned around or else we're in a lot more trouble 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:34.040 than we. 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:34.600 Think we are. 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:39.080 Is exuberance always been lower among the younger than it 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:41.720 has been among the middle aged because they are uncertainty? 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:45.120 Or is it something that is precipitously declining with gen alpha. 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:57.520 It's declining. It's not that it's precipitously declining. It's that 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:01.480 the steady decline has full en off a couple of 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:02.880 stairs instead. 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:06.040 Of one stair at a time I got my books. 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:10.840 Discouraging the Pew Pole does not surprise me. That's the 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:14.360 low confidence in journalism to act in the best interest 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:19.640 in public Fifty seven percent express low confidence in journalism 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:21.480 when it comes to acting in the public interest. 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:24.000 I kind of actually surprised it's that high. 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:29.480 John Well, I think you know this is not this 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:31.800 is not news, right, I mean, we've been watching this 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:35.360 trend for a long time, uh, and you know that 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:39.160 it's I think the reason that it's not higher is 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:42.000 it because people have found their own news sources, which 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:44.200 they quite like, right. I mean people who listen to 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:47.600 Hugh hewittt like the Hugh Hewitt Show. So from from 0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:51.320 their point of view, you know, the news media isn't 0:09:51.320 --> 0:09:56.160 a bad thing. But I think big news media organizations, 0:09:56.200 --> 0:10:00.760 the major broadcast networks, the major cable organizations measure what 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:05.960 we used to call newspapers, are suffering a crisis of confidence. 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.040 But that's you know, that's not news. 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:11.800 That's yeah, you've got tens of thousands, You've got tens 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.040 of thousands of subscribers to news items. 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:14.880 I am among them. 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.560 Do they ever do you ever get feedback from them 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.200 why they have confidence and news items? Because I think 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:23.160 it's because you cover the waterfront quickly, but I'm not sure. 0:10:25.200 --> 0:10:26.280 I think, I mean, I think the. 0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:30.080 Key to our success, such as it is, is that 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:34.000 in eight minutes, you get a lot of information that 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:38.400 is you know, vetted, and that brings to your attention 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:41.400 stuff that you might not otherwise see. I mean, the 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:44.560 basic premises, We read it all so you don't have to, 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:47.200 and then we make the decisions as to what is 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:48.119 most important. 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:49.880 And people like. 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.240 That because it's you know, they can get a pretty 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:53.839 broad picture in eight minutes and. 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:55.000 Then they can get on with their day. 0:10:55.480 --> 0:10:58.640 All right, last story you sent me, Switzerland is joining 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:02.120 the anti immigrant maybe joining the anti immigrant wave. They're 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:03.880 going to hold a referendum. I'm not sure when it's 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:05.800 going to be on whether or not to admit more people. 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:12.400 Details, yeah, details are that the current population is nine million. 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:19.880 There's a strong conservative movement in Switzerland that has gathered 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:24.360 the signatures to put a petition, put a referendum essentially 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:26.960 on the ballot to say, look, we're going to cap 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:31.000 the population of Switzerland at ten millions so that we're 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:36.920 not overrun by immigration. And it's an important vote. Switzerland 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:41.080 is not part of the EU, but it is indicative 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:47.480 I think of a very strong reaction to immigration across Europe. 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:53.000 And as the climate gets worse in the upper part 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:57.199 of Africa and stuff, and as the political climate deteriorates 0:11:57.240 --> 0:11:59.280 in the Middle East, more and more people are going 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:03.120 to want you moved to Europe. And so Switzerland has 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.440 said nope, quartering to go ten millions the number and 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:06.960 that's it. 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:11.920 And Italy deployed its navy today saying stop introduce all 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:15.880 shipping from Africa. So it is not just the Swist's everywhere. 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:18.480 John Ellis from news Items, Thank you. If you want 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.880 news items, just go to Google news items. Sean Ellis 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:31.760 substack and you'll find it. Thank you, John, I'll be right. 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:34.440 Welcome back to America. 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:37.200 I'm Hugh Hewett, joined now by Eli Lake of the 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.120 Free Press, where he was writing about the Kurds inside 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.079 of Iran today. Eli, good to see you. Follow Eli 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:47.760 at x on exit Eli Lake. Yesterday, the President said 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:51.560 if negotiations don't work, there will be severe trauma for Iran, 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:53.120 and that they have about a month or zo to 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.600 make them work. I note before we start that Kadaffi 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:59.280 in fact capitulated in late two thousand and three, early 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:03.200 two thousand or opened up as Kaimano. Take my nuclear stuff, 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.400 take my chemical take my skates. That's really the only 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:09.640 choice that I think the Iranians have other than getting 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:10.240 hammered again. 0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:14.720 What do you think, Well, I agree with you. 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.600 I think it's slightly different than what happened with Kadaffi. 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:22.280 Kadaffi was responding to the invasion of Iraq and the 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:27.280 coalition that George W. Bush had put together, and this 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:31.439 was pursued discreetly. There was no announcement of it until 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:35.479 there was a deal. It was done first through intelligence, 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:39.839 and it was done very quietly. This time it's a 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:44.080 little different. We we know that we had Midnight Hammer 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:50.640 last June and the Iranian people, which were we began 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:55.320 the year with that front and center. I think, you 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:59.000 know are we're We're in the beginning stages. My hope 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:01.240 is that we are in the beginning stages of a 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:06.560 revolution that will finally topple the Islamic Republic. In this respect, 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:11.480 Trump is basically offering a kind of lifeline, albeit a 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:15.680 godfather offer, sort of light fline. If you disarm and 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:17.360 you do all these things which are definitely in the 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:22.280 US national interest, we will let you survive. But the 0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:26.520 problem is he began twenty twenty six by promising to 0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:28.640 come to the aid of the Iranian people who've already 0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:30.920 died in the tens of thousands at the hands of 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.800 this vicious regime. So I have mixed feelings about them. 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:37.880 Where we are at this moment, I have very. 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:41.120 Clear feeling eli, which is, if the President follows through, 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:43.840 he will have done what he promised to do, meaning 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:46.560 if he attacks Iran, or if they totally capitulate and 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:48.880 Hamani is gone and his son is gone and there's 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:50.360 a general in charge, it's. 0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:52.080 Possible, it is not likely. 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:55.680 And then I think it is very likely that he's 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:59.280 going to hammer Iran, but that as Admiral Montgomery explained 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:02.000 on this program on Monday, he's going to do it 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:04.320 after making sure we're it's defended as we can be 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:06.800 wherever we are vulnerable. And I don't I don't know 0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.480 if they'll be Serbia like or Libya like in terms 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:12.040 of our pounding of him, but it's going to be big, 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:13.920 and I think it's going to be within a month 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:14.560 to two months. 0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:19.280 Well, this is again I want to What I want 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.680 to say though, is that what bought. What concerns me 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:25.080 is that he has it seems that he has dropped 0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:28.800 the condition that you can't kill the Iranians who are 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:29.800 protesting the regime. 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:31.240 That's the problem. 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:34.040 They did kill in the tens of thousands, lots of 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:39.080 they defied his redline. And if there is a final deal, 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.560 I have not heard any I mean, it could be 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.440 that that's in the deal, but we haven't heard. 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:44.400 When Trump talks. 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:46.840 About the deal, he talks about nuclear he talks about missiles. 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:48.960 He meets with net and Yahoo, but we don't hear. 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:51.800 And we talked about the terror proxies, but what about 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:57.520 the executions, what about you know, the Iranian people and Ultimately, 0:15:57.840 --> 0:15:59.720 I think the end goal has to be the end 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:00.480 of the regime. 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:02.000 Well, I give you that. 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.720 I'm not gonna I agree, but el I've heard a 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.240 lot of people talking about this. We won't know how 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:10.880 well Trump has pulled this off until it's over. 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:11.720 It's like Sophocle. 0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:13.480 He will not know how good the day has been 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:15.800 until the sun is set, and we want the sun 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:17.920 doesn't set on this drama for a while. So I'm 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:20.360 I don't think he can bring those people back to life. 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:22.440 I don't blame them that the regime killed them and 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:25.200 they've been killing people for forty seven years. But I 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:27.480 do think we got to give him a chance to 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:29.440 do what he said he would do, and by by 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.320 upping the any with terror, with the missiles on the table, 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:34.880 they're not going to give up their missiles, are they? 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:35.640 Well? 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:38.160 Agree that now you're getting into something else, which is 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:41.880 that can they accept the offer? Are they motivated by 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:44.240 a kind of regime death wish? I believe they are. 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:47.440 I think they're apocalyptic. And then the second thing is 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:51.440 is that it's absolutely prudent to want to make sure that. 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:52.600 You have the innerset. 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:57.240 Actors in place and the military positioning in place to 0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:02.320 absorb any kind of barrages that the Iranians will launch 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:06.080 after an attack. All of that's true, and I hope 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:07.959 and that there's a lot of coordination I assume there 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:10.840 is between the Mosad and our military and the CIA 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.040 to find out exactly where them as the launchers are 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:15.159 and to make sure maybe we get them before they 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.879 can fire them off. All that's great, but I just 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:20.959 want to stress it's not a judgment, because I think 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:22.800 you're right, we have to judge this until we can't 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:25.680 judge until it's over. I'm throwing one red flag, though, 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:31.160 is that the regime was cratering. They had lost popular legitimacy. 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:34.360 Even the Chancellor of Germany said they're in their final 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:35.560 months or days. 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:37.680 At this point. 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:42.639 Even the act of negotiations is reflected back to the 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:48.600 Iranian people, see America will abandon you. And that's the 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.080 part of it that doesn't sit well with me. I 0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:54.520 understand that he's trying to do it without war. That's 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:58.399 always admirable, but then why make a promise that you 0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:01.639 didn't deliver on When they did that, now you know 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:04.639 again it could be one of these things where he 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:08.280 said that that was where his heart was. And then 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:11.520 he's briefed, listen, we don't have the interceptors in place. 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:14.640 We've got to move these assets into the Persian golf. 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:18.160 That's going to take some time. I understand that. And 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:20.800 in the end history will judge him by the final result, 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.480 not by what maybe happens in the interim. But just 0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:29.600 right now, where is that original demand, stop killing your 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:30.159 own people? 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.080 Moas we hold all the cards, they have zero leverage. 0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:36.359 They can't deliver that now. I mean, I think he 0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:39.000 was actually trying to protect those people. I think he 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:41.120 was trying to tell their regime not to do that. 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.359 And the regime did it, and they did something I 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:48.359 didn't think possible. They out Chinese the tannem and square thing. 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.480 They went three times and square, and I didn't think 0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:54.760 we'd ever see that done in the daylight or at 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:58.320 nighttime or without the internet. So they have done the 0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:01.119 worst that they could possibly And now it's made it 0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:04.200 harder because the IRGC can't really lay down its arms, 0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:06.920 can they are the people will? I asked the Crown 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.240 Prince that this on Monday, how do you stop the 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.720 reprisals if the regime falls? And he says, they think 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:14.320 they can. I don't think he can. 0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:14.439 Do you. 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:18.000 I hope he can. 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:20.200 I think there was I think in I think reprisals 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:23.960 in the situation, and it's been building I'd say since 0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:28.480 seventy nine, are inevitable. I mean, there reprisals. As we 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.160 know in Romania, it's very rare that you don't get 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:35.040 reprisals when you have a regime this violent, repressive finally topple. 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:36.840 But they do have to go. 0:19:37.040 --> 0:19:41.320 And I'm just worried that even if we got a 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:44.680 great deal on all the things we wanted, the survival 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:46.600 of the regime is still in my view of failure. 0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:49.440 Well, I agree, but I don't think. I don't think 0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:50.280 that's possible. 0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:50.560 Eli. 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:52.800 Yeah, because if that is, then trumps gerald in a 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.920 way it would be as it would be a historic failure. 0:19:56.040 --> 0:19:58.960 It would haunt his presidency if he collapses. 0:19:59.040 --> 0:19:59.240 Yep. 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:03.840 Yes, And I think the good The difference between Trump 0:20:03.880 --> 0:20:05.919 and Obama, there's been a lot of these comparisons, is 0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:09.720 that Trump understands that you can never go into a 0:20:09.760 --> 0:20:12.800 negotiation wanting the deal more than the other side. So 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:15.520 he's shown before he is willing to say to walk 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:18.440 away and say I'm not going to play games anymore. 0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:21.840 That was something that was Obama's big weakness. He at 0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:23.560 the end of it, he just wanted any deal and 0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:25.560 he got a very bad one. So I don't think 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:28.680 Trump will agree to a bad deal in terms of 0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:31.520 our US interest. I just want him to understand that 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:33.080 even if what he thinks is a good dealer, the 0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:35.280 AD either says a good deal, it can't be a 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:38.800 good deal until we see a new regime in Iran. 0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:41.560 Yeah, and I agree. And if you ever played Jackson Open, 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:45.440 trust the Wynn poker. H the Iranians doing Jackson Open. 0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:48.320 They can't open. Yeah, I mean they can't write and 0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:50.800 so yeah, So I hope we're there. I never seen 0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:53.680 Well keep talking about it every week because Eli and 0:20:53.760 --> 0:20:56.000 I have gotten there's no other story that's important in 0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:59.359 the world. Maybe the Chinese fishing boat, the Japanese cities 0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:01.920 this morning, but all other story is this close. Stay 0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:03.960 tuned in America. Thank you, Eli Lake, follow him at 0:21:03.960 --> 0:21:05.440 Eli Lake, and read them in the Free Press. 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:11.840 Stay tune. Welcome back to America. 0:21:12.000 --> 0:21:15.280 I'm Hugh Hewett, joined now by Wall Street Journal columnist 0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:18.440 Matt Continetti. Matt also has domestic policy studies at the 0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:21.320 American Enterprise Institute, and in his column this week for 0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:24.280 the Journal, he was talking domestic policy. He said, the 0:21:24.359 --> 0:21:28.480