WEBVTT - Previewing the Islamabad talks 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple, 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:18.880 iTunes and Hillsdale. You at inside the Belwagh in the 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:22.000 Relief Factors Studio, Welcome, thank you for joining. I got 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:24.480 a lot of great guests coming up today. Eleana Johnson 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:28.480 of the Washington Freebeacon, the Commentary Podcast, Philip Alboni of 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:32.040 The Global Post, Josh Krasauer from The Juitionsider. I've got 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.280 Ben and Ben Talabu and Admiral Mark Montgomery from the 0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:39.040 Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. And we're talking about one thing, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:44.920 almost only one thing, the upcoming negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, 0:00:45.680 --> 0:00:50.239 between Vice President jd Vance, Special ENVOYE. Steve Whitcock and 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:54.640 Jared Kushner and whomever the Iranian regime sends, whatever is 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:59.960 left of that regime. They're sending representatives to Islamabad. Meanwhile, 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:03.600 Israel has rejected the idea of a ceasefire, in Lebanon. 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:07.080 Iran has issued so many different statements. We don't quite 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:10.000 know what to believe there. I do know that they 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:15.000 are alleged Supreme Leader Hamini two point zero, the one 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:17.919 who's in a coma income and he might be dead. 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:21.480 He issued a written statement that was read over at 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:24.000 Iran TV. And we don't know who's running what in Iran. 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.759 Iran is not seeking more, but we will not forfeit 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:29.360 it's right and will consider all resistance fronts as a 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:33.039 unified entity. He also added they're the definite victor in 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:36.200 the war. All right, So there's propaganda and there's posturing, 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:39.080 and we've got lots of banging fits and shoes on 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:42.639 lecterns at the UN cruse chef style. But I remind 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:46.120 everyone at the beginning we have lots of presidents to 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:50.360 study when high stakes international negotiations occur. And I got 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:52.760 to break this down for the Steelers fan. I'm not 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:55.280 going to tell you about the Congress of Berlin. I'm 0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:56.760 not going to tell you about the Congress of. 0:01:58.720 --> 0:01:59.200 Vienna. 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:01.520 I'm not going back to the history of diplomacy, but 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:04.880 I'll use some obvious examples. We can go back to 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:09.760 nineteen thirty eight, Neville Chamberlain goes to Munich and basically 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:13.600 gives Hitler everything he wants and comes back with an 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:16.120 umbrella and a piece of paper saying peace in our time, 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:19.200 and the world goes to war. World War Two begins 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:24.080 a year later. We've also got full and complete surrender 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:26.639 by the bad guys. The good guys that would be Appomatics. 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:31.960 In eighteen sixty five, when Lee offers the surrender of 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.919 the Army of Northern Virginia to Grant, Commander in chief 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.440 of all the Union armies. That's a total capitulation. And 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:41.160 by the way, that can happen, and we might not 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:44.359 know it might be a secret deal in between. We've 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:46.960 got Rekovic nineteen eighty six. This is the one I 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.440 know the best because I was in the Reagan administration. 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:53.280 I wasn't there, but boy were we transfixed. President Reagan 0:02:53.280 --> 0:02:56.200 went off to negotiate with the charismatic new leader of 0:02:56.240 --> 0:03:01.040 the Soviet Union, and we'd run through Leonid Breshna. Then 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:05.120 we had the head of the KGB and he died. 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:08.600 Then we had Tchernanco and he died. And finally the 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:11.959 pall up hero says, let's go with someone who's under 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:15.040 the age of eighty, and they picked Cher, they picked 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:18.639 Gorbachev and Andre Gromico has been around as long as 0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:21.640 as the other guys. But he's still alive. He's still breathing. 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:23.840 He says to his communist buddies. 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:24.680 Don't worry. 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:26.520 The man has a nice smile, but he has teeth 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:28.840 of iron. Turned out he didn't. He had a glass jaw. 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:33.280 He went to Iceland and wanted Reagan to do one thing, 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:37.320 give up the Strategic Defense initiative. He was willing to 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:40.120 put everything on the table, give up Sdi. Reagan would 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:43.480 not give up Sdi and Reagan walked out, and the 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:47.560 Soviet Union collapsed. Five years later. Three years after that, 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.000 the Berlin Wall came down. Sometimes the walk out and 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:52.320 no result is the best thing that can happen. What 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.600 we can't have is a Munich, right, There are lots 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:57.840 of things in between. By the way, there's the Yalta 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:02.680 Conference nineteen forty five, Fdr Churchill sit down with Stalin. 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:06.400 Basically Fdr gets his hat handed to him because he's 0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:09.520 being advised by algera history as a Communist spy, and 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:12.640 it's really just the Soviet Union. United States left Britain 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:16.640 has spent their empires almost over and Churchill's kind of 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.400 cut out of Yalta. There's the Potsdam talks. Truman doesn't 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:22.040 really know what's going on. He knew on the job. 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:26.120 They don't really get that. There's the Tehran Conference during 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:28.400 I think it's nineteen forty three during World War Two, 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:31.599 when FDR and Churchill at his power get together with 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:35.000 Stalin in Tehran and they agree on a second front 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:37.320 in nineteen forty four. So there are all sorts of 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:41.160 meetings all over. We can go back to the River Neemen, 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:45.440 the Treaty of Tislit. Napoleon meets with Alexander, the one 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:48.000 in the middle of the River Nemen on especially built 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.800 wrap that would convey equality, and they enter into a 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:54.239 peace deal in eighteen oh seven and lasts until eighteen twelve. 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:56.240 Begins to fall apart a couple of years before that, 0:04:56.600 --> 0:04:59.440 but Napoleon marches into Russia in eighteen twelve and is doomed. 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.800 And there's a bunch of other things. So we have 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.160 no idea what's going to come out. But I do 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:07.520 want you to know one thing. Everyone who's out there 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:11.599 saying that this is a debacle or that the United 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:15.680 States lost. They are more interested in hating Donald Trump 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:19.640 than loving the United States. They're more interested in their 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:23.080 agenda of scoring points against Trump, which they don't do 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:25.599 because they're just talking to each other, than in seeing 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:30.440 the United States conclude this war, this battle with a 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:34.320 significant win. Now we already have a significant win. Iran's 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:36.960 military has been reduced by seventy five to ninety percent. 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:40.640 They have lost their ability to project power except in 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:43.000 the Persian Gulf and the straight of arm moves, and 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:44.440 they have one weapon left. 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:45.479 Which is the straight Or moves. 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:48.240 And securing the straight of Or moves might require a 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:52.000 long standing convoy operation that might take years. It might 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:55.039 require no fly zones, might require the resumption of the 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:55.760 war in full. 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:56.880 Lebanon. 0:05:57.279 --> 0:05:59.960 Israel is going to enter into negotiations with the government 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:02.320 of Lebanon, but they're continuing the war with Hesbela, the 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:04.760 remnants of it. We don't know what's going to happen, 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:08.040 but the good guys are winning and they can't give 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:11.080 it away. The only thing that worries me is a 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:14.360 Munich style agreement. And I want Vice President of Vance 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:15.880 coming back declaring peace in our time. 0:06:15.880 --> 0:06:17.120 He wouldn't do that. He's too smart. 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:20.160 Neither would Witcoffin Jared Kushner, both of whom are very 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:23.360 experienced negotiators, and they know the Iranians. I think they're 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:27.960 sending two experienced negotiators with the Iranians who were very, very, 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:30.280 very responsible and relaying to the President that we're going 0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:32.920 nowhere with these people. So he started the war and 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:35.720 they're setting a symbol of authority. President Trump's not going 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:37.719 to go deal with these people. But they're sending the 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:41.240 number two person in the United States, and though he 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:45.800 has no constitutional authority, he is the only other elected 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:47.960 person in the United States beside Trump who's elected by 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:49.520 all the people, Shadie Vans. 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:50.960 So it's big. 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:54.120 Time, high stakes. But I've been reading take after take 0:06:54.160 --> 0:06:57.800 after take, and they're all wrong. The Iranians blinked, is 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.680 keep that in mind when they agreed to this. They 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.719 blinked when they agreed to a ceasefire, because they said 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:06.039 from the beginning of the war there will be no ceasefire. 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:08.560 There will be no ceasefire. There will be no ceasefire. 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.840 Now there's a seafire. It's not holding up really really well. 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:14.560 I think Saudi Arabia might be under some drone attacks 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:16.120 as we speak, but. 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:18.720 I'm not sure. No one's really sure. 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:22.600 But Donald Trump confirmed that he told Prime Minister Netnaho 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:26.160 in a phone call yesterday to scale back Israel's bombing 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:29.360 of Lebanon in order to preserve the fragile ceasefire in 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.240 Iran to at least get to Islamabad. 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:32.520 But they hasn't. 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:35.600 President Trump did not ask Prime Minister in Netah who 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:40.440 to stop the attacks that are necessary against Hasbolah, which 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:43.880 is on its last legs. And they need Iran to 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:45.400 come out of this with a win because they don't 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.840 have any money and the people of Lebanon hate them. 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:50.840 So all you need to know is that the United 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:53.600 States has the upper hand. They have scored a dramatic 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:58.760 strategic victory over Iran's military, which is ruined. Don't use 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:01.600 the word decimated. People like to use the word decimated. 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:04.000 Every time I hear someone use the word decimated, and 0:08:04.040 --> 0:08:07.640 someone will probably use it today. Decimated actually means to 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:11.520 lose one tenth of your force. It was a punishment 0:08:12.080 --> 0:08:14.760 that the Roman legions would be subject to when they 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:17.800 really screwed up, like Marcus Crass has took over the 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:21.080 legion that failed to kill Spartacus and his slave rebellion 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:25.400 thousands of years ago, and he ordered decimation. That's where 0:08:25.440 --> 0:08:27.600 every tenth man in line got clubbed to death by 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:30.880 nine of his buddies. And you know what, It's a 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:34.320 pretty brutal way of inflicting punishment on a failed legion. 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:37.960 But decimation means to lose one tenth. It's not what 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:41.000 happened to Iran. They've lost seventy five to ninety percent 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:46.040 of their military. They cannot project power. Admiral Brad Cooper 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:48.520 took to the airwaves today to give the latest scent 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:51.560 Coom update. I want to play it for you right now. 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:52.480 CUTT number six. 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:56.200 I'm met Brad Cooper, Commander of US Central Command. Less 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:59.480 than six weeks ago, more than fifty thousand of America's 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:03.760 Sons and DAWs uniform launched Operation Epic Fury and embarked 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:07.080 on the mission of Profound Consequence. We set out to 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:11.160 dismantle the Iranian regime's ability to project power beyond its 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:16.000 own borders, and we clearly accomplished this task. Iran has 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:20.400 suffered a generational military defeat. The United States and Israel 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:25.280 systematically destroyed Iran's ability to conduct large scale military operations 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:30.160 for years to come. Iran's conventional military capability, built over 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:33.079 forty years at the cost of billions of dollars, has 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:37.240 been eliminated. As the President expressed earlier this week, our 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:43.080 core strategic military objectives have been achieved. After destroying Iran's missile, drone, 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:48.120 and naval capabilities and their defensive industrial base. After successfully 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:52.000 conducting more than thirteen thousand strikes on Iranian military targets 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:56.400 and flying thousands upon thousands of combat flights, US forces 0:09:56.440 --> 0:10:01.200 have paused offensive operations in accordance with the ongoing ceasefire. However, 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:05.720 we remain present, we remain vigilant, and we remain ready 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:06.320 if cold. 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:09.319 That's all you need to know is that we are 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:12.600 in a very fragile ceasefire. It's one Iran asked for, 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:15.920 Iran blinked, and we don't know what's going to happen. 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:19.160 But we sent the heavy hitters, the people that the 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:23.400 Iridians notes can speak with authority for President Trump, and 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:25.600 if there's a deal to be had to remove the 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:28.720 uranium and open the strait, they can have that deal 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:32.120 and have a continuing ceasefire. But they're not going back 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:36.160 to terrorizing the world. That's not happening. That's the minimum 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:38.720 is the opening of the strait of Hormons. Stay tuned. 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:42.280 I'll be right back America. I'm Eleano Y. Johnson is 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.280 editor in chief of the Washington Free Beacon and a 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:48.920 participant in almost every commentary podcast Monday through Friday. 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.240 Eleana, good to see you. I'm going to remind the audience. 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:55.520 You're graduate of Yale and Charles Hill was a great 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:58.439 professor there. He took Grand strategy from him. So I'm 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:01.000 going to my quiz is, we've had lots of high 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:05.640 profile negotiations before the Islamab attacks. Do you expect them 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:13.120 to be Munich, Rakovic, Appomatics, Yalta, Potsdam, the Congress of Berlin? 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:17.800 What do you expect out of this weekend? O? G. 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:18.280 Hugh? 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:22.439 Well, I'm certainly hoping for appomatics. I'm not sure. I uh, 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:28.080 I'm hoping for appomatics, and uh, you know, maybe I 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.080 think Raykovic is more more likely. 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.720 That's what I am predicting. I am afraid of Munich. 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:35.200 Are you afraid of Munich? 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:42.800 Oh? I'm petrified of Munich, and you know I'm However, 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:50.840 I'm petrified of something worse, which is that after ceasing hostilities, 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:56.079 there will be reluctance to resume war after two weeks 0:11:56.280 --> 0:12:01.360 if Iran does not agree to give up it's nuclear 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:09.520 materials and its future capabilities, and that future presidents. You 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:11.520 know that this president won't want to go back to war, 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.679 and that no other president before this has been willing 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:18.920 to confront this regime militarily, and that no future president 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:22.880 will do so either. So I'm afraid of that, Okay. 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:26.200 So am I I don't think however, if there's been 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.040 a report of a breach in the ceasefire today drones 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:32.480 fired at Kuwait, but we know that Iran's got thirty 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:37.079 one provinces and a mosaic defense strategy, and any IRGC 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:39.760 commander and any of those provinces can do whatever they want, 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:43.200 so it's pretty hard to patrol. One breach with drones 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:45.640 of Kuwait is not a reason to resume the war. 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:47.080 I want to know. 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.360 If it's acceptable to you, because it's acceptable to me 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.480 if they get a pledge from Iran not to fire 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:58.200 on the Strait of Hormones, a standdown, and negotiations on 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:02.000 the removal of the in retched uranium in exchange for 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:04.160 easing of sanctions, which will take a long time. 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:05.520 Would that be acceptable to you. 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.800 Under no conditions? Do I really think we should be 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:16.040 easing sanctions on this regime and allowing cash to flow 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.319 into this And I would point out one thing in 0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:23.040 my view, Iran is already cheating on this ceasefire. It 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:25.800 was a cease fire in exchange for the opening of 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.280 the Strait of Horror Moves, and I don't believe that 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:31.800 straight is open. It is an international waterway, and Iran 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:36.240 is asserting control over it, demanding permission for vessels to 0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:39.839 cross and charging tolls. Maybe that won't continue, but as 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:43.679 of right now, they're violating that ceasefire. 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:47.880 Secretary, I'm going to caution. 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.040 My caution is I've seen reports that they're charging tolls 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.600 and that they threaten and that people have turned back. 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:56.120 I saw a report that the ship that turned back 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:58.360 was in fact the Iranian shadow fleet that was afraid 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.320 of getting snatched by US. I have no idea what's 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:03.880 going on there. Is it possible, It's just we don't 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:04.520 know what's going on. 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:08.840 It's possible. I think we're in a fog of peace period. 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:13.560 It's possible, but I hope that our representatives refuse to 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:15.400 sit down at the table if this is in fact 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.160 a violation. The other thing that's concerning me is that 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:21.080 the White House Press Secretary said yesterday Lebanon was not 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:23.680 part of this ceasefire, and then it does appear the 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:27.280 President is leaning on Israel to go easy on Hesbalah 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.320 in Lebanon as a result of this. So it seems 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:32.880 to me that we are giving quite a lot, and 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.000 I don't really see the Iranians giving. I actually see 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:37.320 them pressing their luck here. 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:38.240 Okay. 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.960 I saw them blink when they agreed to the ceasefire 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.720 negotiations because they said not now, not ever, and never, 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:47.480 we won't ever have a ceasefire, and then they did. 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:52.480 And now they're doing the classic Gharanian Islamist option, which is. 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:54.040 To lie about what they agreed to. 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.800 However, I'm willing to suspend judgment until we see what 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:00.760 comes out of Islamabad. But I do believe I want 0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:02.800 to hear what people think is a loss, and I 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.560 think a loss is if they have any control over 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.760 the strait of hormones. That's actually a strategic loss. 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:09.440 Do you agree with that. 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:15.480 I think a loss is if we don't achieve the 0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.880 political objectives we set out to achieve. I think we've 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:25.360 achieved many of our military objectives. The ballistic missile and 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.960 nuclear programs have been set back quite a bit in 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.280 a brilliant military campaign, but they cannot have any control 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:33.240 over the strait of horror moons. One hundred percent agree 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:35.320 with you, and the reason we went into this war 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.880 was to strip them of their nuclear capabilities and to 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:42.760 extract from them a concession that they would not pursue 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.120 those capabilities, and so I think that's also quite important 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:50.720 to the control gre We're worse off than when we started, 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:54.000 but I do think that the nuclear ambitions are quite 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:54.720 important to. 0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:58.200 I agree about the fact that we've got to have 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:02.280 an understanding that they are not moving forward with nuclear weaponry. 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:05.600 But if it was here's two hundred of our six 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:09.880 hundred pounds, take away a third of the sanction, then 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:11.840 you can come get the four hundred pound and we 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:13.800 get two thirds of the sanctions off, and then you 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:15.760 get the six hundred pound and we get all the 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:16.560 sanctions off. 0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:20.840 Does that work for you, Hugh. 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.920 I'd like to know what kind of verification goes along 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:30.240 with that. I'm really skeptical of funding a regime that 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:36.200 is fundamentally run by the IRGC. Despite what the President 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:38.720 and the Defense Secretary is saying, there really hasn't been 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.360 regime change. It is still really run by the same 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:45.200 people that maybe you know a lower IQ three point 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:48.360 zero version, but we haven't quite had regime change. And 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:52.360 with that money they will rebuild their ballistic missiles to 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:55.520 protect what they have. So I'd like to know what 0:16:55.560 --> 0:17:00.280 the verification is, and you know, I suppose I'm open 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:04.120 to that with the right sort of verification. 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:05.920 And so I can agree with all that as well. 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:09.440 But do you think it is correct to be condemning 0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:13.960 the ceasefire as a taco? Jimmy Kimmel last night did that, 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:17.400 and I see it everywhere on X. There's no way 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.000 to judge it other than okay, they're going to the table. 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:21.840 Iron said they were never going to go to the table. 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:23.800 I think they said uncle, but now they don't want 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.199 to be understood to be saying uncle. Last word to you, 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:27.840 Aliana one minute. 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:30.960 No you I think you know what you hear People 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:34.240 who are steeped in diplomacy always say is that diplomacy 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:36.720 only works with the threat of force looming In the background, 0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:39.040 and I really think that's the key here. I'm quite 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:42.520 skeptical of the ceasefire because I'm skeptical that Iran will 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:46.160 negotiate away things that we couldn't win on the battlefield. 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.560 But I'm not condemning it. I'm willing to wait and see. 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:54.240 And so the key thing is being willing to go 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:57.720 back to war if Iran gives us the run around 0:17:57.720 --> 0:17:59.000 in these negotiations. 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:04.560 Agreed, polar Rekovic walk out and presume firing at will. 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:08.040 Eleian Ali Johnson, thank you. Follow on exit Elean O. 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:10.840 Y Johnson, reader in the Free Beacon at the Freebeacon 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:14.160 and Freebeacon dot Com. I'll be right back America Institution, 0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:17.760 Welcome back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett. Josh Cuash Hours, 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:22.200 editor in chief of Jewish Insider. Josh, you studied international 0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:25.840 affairs for a long time. In the history of diplomacy, 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:28.920 I got a long list here. We've got the Piece 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:32.760 of Tislit in eighteen oh seven. We have the Congress 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:36.399 of Vienna in eighteen fourteen. We've got Appomatics in eighteen 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:39.480 sixty five. That's pretty straightforward. Got the Congress of Berlin 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:42.560 in eighteen seventy eight. We've got the Munich Agreement in 0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:45.920 nineteen thirty eight, We've got y Alta in nineteen forty five, 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:50.040 Potsdam in nineteen forty five, We've got Rekovic in nineteen 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:54.000 eighty six. What do you expect out of Islamabad twenty 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:54.960 twenty six. 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:58.359 Che, I don't expect much. 0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:01.280 And I feel like we've played this, uh, this game 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:06.800 before where we've engaged in serious negotiations with the Iranian 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:11.280 regime through an intermediary. This time it's the Pakistanis. This 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:14.720 time we're sending Vice President Jade Vance to lead the negotiations, 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:18.560 which may suggest that the White House is thinking about 0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:21.520 more concessions than then in the past. But you know, look, 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:25.439 it's hard to read whether this is actually I'm very 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:28.480 skeptical this is going to lead to any real deal 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:32.679 or anything concrete. I think it's you know, maybe on 0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:33.960 both ends to buy some time. 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:34.679 UH. 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:38.080 And what's been a pretty pretty devastating war for the Iranians, 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:40.840 and in a tough, tough political moment for the president, 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:43.280 dealing with a rough you know, at least on the 0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:45.440 on the gas prices side of the economy, dealing with 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:47.840 a little bit of political pressure back home. So you know, 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:49.800 I feel like this is almost a way to buy 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:53.160 some time more than seeing this as a real likelihood 0:19:53.160 --> 0:19:56.320 that it'll lead to an agreement after two weeks. 0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:58.520 I think it's going to do a recovic two point zero. 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:00.320 I think our guys are going to walk out. I 0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:02.919 certainly hope they walk out unless they get the minimum 0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:05.679 for a win. Now, I was on Special Report on 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:07.879 Tuesday night when this happened, and so I had to 0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:10.600 do the instant reaction. I said, well, President Trump's tweet 0:20:10.680 --> 0:20:14.359 says the straits of horror moves will will open and 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:17.480 will remain open. And I said, that's a win if 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:20.720 that happens. If they open and we negotiate, that's a win. 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:24.920 We have to negotiate over the highly enriched uranium, about sanctions. 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:26.879 There's lots to talk to them about, but the strait 0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:29.119 has to be open or it's not a win. Do 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:30.280 you agree with that assessment? 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:32.760 Well, then we talked on the show. 0:20:32.800 --> 0:20:35.960 The three things that I've been paying close attention to 0:20:36.080 --> 0:20:38.640 is the metrics of success is you know, did did 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.840 the US Israeli operation uh degrade? If I destroy the 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:47.080 ballistic missile supply and missile launching missile launcher, supply the 0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:50.720 nuclear material as I've been dealt with, and and and 0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:52.720 and in the straight up hor moves, and then is 0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:53.639 it going to be opened up? 0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:56.720 At first, it's outed like, at least from Trump's. 0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:00.679 Assessment, that that that was happening. But we now seeing 0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:03.600 that the Iranians have closed it again and allegedly because 0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:07.960 of the Israeli military operation against Kasbola and Lebanon, and 0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:10.359 that's there's been some movement on that front as well today. 0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:12.720 But look, I still think there are a lot of 0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:15.920 incomplete grades and I think there's a lot of TBD 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:20.600 grades on the other two parts of the equation. So 0:21:20.760 --> 0:21:23.520 you know, I think we, you know, the Israelis are 0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:26.199 a little bit you know, I think there there's a 0:21:26.200 --> 0:21:29.960 lot of questions and more questions, frankly you than answers 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:34.400 about the degree to which the operation degraded Iran's military 0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.879