WEBVTT - What Does Iran War Victory Actually Look Like? Trump on $250 Bill? 0:00:00.680 --> 0:00:03.280 He's editor in chief of breit Bart News and a 0:00:03.360 --> 0:00:06.760 New York Times best selling author, and on this podcast 0:00:06.920 --> 0:00:11.720 he brings deep research, prescient analysis at world class guests. 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:16.320 He's Alex Marlow and this is the Alex Marlow Show. 0:00:18.040 --> 0:00:20.720 All right, Newsy show for you today. With two guests. 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:24.040 We got Carla Sands, the former ambassador to Denmark, very 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:26.920 smart lady. We talked mostly about the Iran War. It's 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:29.600 got a ton of background foreign policy, national security, and 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:32.239 we tried to find what victory will actually look like 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:34.920 for President Trump. And we also get into some things 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.599 like Visa's visa abuses of where she's putting a lot 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:41.800 of her effort and resources into investigating that, which is important. 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:43.960 Then we speak to John Carney, my partner in crime 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:45.920 in the Bright Bar Business Digest, and I think the 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:50.200 most knowledgeable person on macca, maga economics, maganomics, if you will, 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:52.600 in the world, perhaps second to Scott Bessant, but I 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:55.160 think they're right there, neck and neck. And I asked 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:57.280 him about the potential for a Trump two hundred and 0:00:57.280 --> 0:01:01.040 fifty dollars bill. I asked him about inflation numbers. I 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:03.840 ask him about how the economy is actually doing, and 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:06.240 one of my favorite things the Trump accounts how you 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:09.240 can get involved, particularly if you've got young kids or grandkids. 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:11.480 So all that is cool and covered on the broadcast. 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:13.360 Let's get into it first with Carla sans. 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:17.840 Right. 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.760 Really pleased if Carla sands with me, the former ambassador 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.600 to Denmark for the United States ambassador and last time 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:26.080 you were here, we were talking about Greenland. That's kind 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.720 of fallen off of the radar. Are you disappointing this? 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:30.760 I'm a little disappointed in this. I still want us 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:33.080 to take Greenland and have that become the next date, 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:34.800 but it's a well what happened? 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:36.200 How come the conversation? I dropped. 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:38.600 Well, we've got this Iron War going on and a 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:43.000 few things cooking down around Cuba. In our southern hemisphere, 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:45.120 I would say it's on the back burner, but I 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:48.040 would say within maybe the third quarter of this year, 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.960 you'll probably see more developments regarding Greenland and the Arctic. 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:53.080 I hope so. 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:54.920 And a lot of that is dependent on getting through 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:57.720 the Iran war, which I think largely is pretty noble. 0:01:57.800 --> 0:02:00.960 But as are all foreign intervention engines around the world, 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:04.280 there's always so many issues that it's hard to foresee 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.960 when you enter a war, even for righteous regions. 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:08.400 So I want to talk about. 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:11.160 Where we think we're at here and what do you 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.600 define How would you define a victory? What do we 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:15.760 need to achieve to be able to be able to 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:18.720 come home and say definitively, declaratively we won this thing. 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:21.840 Yeah, it's a great question, Alex, because that's what's on 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:25.120 the mind of every American. How do we get out 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:27.840 and what are we achieving? And thank god President Trump 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:29.920 doesn't believe in forever work, so we're not going to 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.799 be there for twenty years. Iran has a fuse lit 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.519 because they at some point are not going to be 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:39.040 able to pump any more energy. Once carg Island and 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:42.080 all of the storage areas are full, they're going to 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:47.440 put the oil into the ships, into the the carrier ships, 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:49.639 and then once those are full, they're going to have 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:50.919 to cap off those wells. 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:53.640 How long is it going to take? Not that long. 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.520 So when President Trump says today in his cabinet meeting, 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:59.720 I don't care about the midterms, he's telling the Malas 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:03.000 and the IRGC members in Iran, we're not going to 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:05.280 end this war because of the midterm so you can 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.600 stop watching the clock thinking that I'm going to blink. 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.600 I'm not going to blink. That was a direct communication 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:15.680 to the regime was strong. He also said, We're not 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.200 going to leave with a bad deal. We're not doing 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:21.880 a bad deal like Obama did with the JCPOA where 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:25.760 they can slowly get that bomb. He's saying no nuclear 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.080 bomb for the Iranians, and that's a good thing. We 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.320 don't want them to have nuclear arms. They've threatened us 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:33.640 and said death to America and death to Israel. We 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:35.800 don't want to be on their radar when they have 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:40.720 a much longer range, medium range missile than they had claimed. 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:43.560 They had lied about about fifty percent of its capability. 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:45.600 So how long what's the. 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:48.760 Timeline till they have a long range nuclear weapon or 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:51.520 a long range missile that can attack the homeland. 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:52.520 I don't know. 0:03:52.880 --> 0:03:55.720 Probably not that long because China and Russia are helping them. 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:57.600 So what do we want to do. 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:00.440 We want to shut down all the trains and trucks 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:04.040 that are bringing supplies in from China and others who 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:06.560 are helping to resupply Iran. We want to cut off 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:09.800 the money so that they're starved of cash, and then 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:12.720 we don't want to let their energy get out because 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:15.720 that starves them of first of all, they're going to overflow, 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:17.479 and then their wells will have to be capped. I 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.120 think they blink when that happens. If they don't and 0:04:20.160 --> 0:04:23.760 they just let their economy complete completely collapse to like 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.360 stone Age, well then it's going to take more attacks 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:30.000 to make this happen. Let's not forget. In World War Two, 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:35.760 Japan also a very strong opponent. They in spite of 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:39.640 the devastation, they would not surrender until we dropped two 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:40.760 nuclear bombs. 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:42.039 Right. 0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:43.880 Yeah, And I'm glad you brought up China because it 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:45.560 does feel like a lot of what President Trump is 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:48.440 doing foreign policy wives are designed to indirectly put pressure 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:50.960 on China. I don't think they would respond very well 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:53.120 to too much direct pressure, so I think this is 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:56.320 pretty wise on the President's part. But China is a 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.240 huge beneficiary for all that commerce going through the Strait, 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:01.279 so I know they would like to see it open, 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:05.240 which could ultimately perhaps drive China closer to the United States, 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:08.480 which is interesting. And also China maybe the position where 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:10.640 they might decide to buy more of our oil versus 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:13.520 Iranian oil. Do you feel like there's some upside here. 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:14.840 Yeah, I do. 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:17.279 They are talking about it, so there's a potential that 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:20.440 they'll buy our energy. They already buy our coal. But 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:26.120 one of the beautyful things about President Trump's foreign policy 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:29.080 is what he did in Venezuela actually took away about 0:05:29.120 --> 0:05:32.320 four percent of China's energy and redirected it to the 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:34.920 United States where we're now refining it like we did 0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:37.880 ten years ago. So that's a win for the US. 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:41.920 But then that Iranian energy supplied on another seventeen percent 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:45.320 of China's energy, so that takes that off the table 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:47.400 because it's not getting through it. But China also buys 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:50.400 even more energy from the Saudis, and that's not getting 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:53.040 through Cargo Island. Now there are not cargo the Hormu 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:57.440 straight but Saudis have other ways of getting the energy out. 0:05:57.480 --> 0:05:59.920 But the less energy that China is getting, the more 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:03.160 pressure it puts on them. Although they have really great reserves, 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:05.960 much more than our reserves, it puts a lot of 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:09.839 pressure on China to do the right thing and stop 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:12.960 being the malign presence as a country that they are 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:16.200 against the United States with the propaganda, the theft, the 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:20.640 ip theft, the restriction on rare earth minerals, all the 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:23.919 things they're doing to try to destroy our economy but 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:27.240 also our society. I mean they're behind if you're looking 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.400 at these the riots and the sort of the pressure 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:34.000 from the left on stopping data centers for instance. The 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:38.720 money's coming from China, so you know, you know, it's 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:42.440 kind of throwing through flowing through people like Nevill Singham, 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:45.240 but a lot of that money is funded by China 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:49.080 to stop our progress as a society so that they 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:51.640 can take over and they can win in things like 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:52.480 the data wars. 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.160 Yeah, I'm important to always mentioned Nevill saying where you can. 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:57.000 We've did a lot of research on him at Brightbart. 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:58.560 I already did a segment on him earlier in the 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:01.440 week on the show, So definitely a good call out there. 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:01.920 All right. 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:04.799 So the couple of the deal points potentially with Iron 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:06.599 that I'm curious your take on. First of all, the 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:10.440 issue of cash. It's the we really mocked Obama for 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:13.680 giving Iran cash, and it feels like they're asking for 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.120 a lot of cash. I think they can get cash again. 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:19.320 For me, I've kind of conceptualized it as I don't 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:21.560 think it's the cash that matters. It's that we don't 0:07:21.560 --> 0:07:23.000 really know where the cash is going to go. So 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:24.640 we could assume it's going to terror, and if the 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:28.040 cash does good to terror, then that's really the problem. 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.440 But I don't I theoretically don't mind if they use 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:32.960 the cash for something like rebuilding their society, that probably 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.840 doesn't hurt. But there's a real way to know, right, 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:39.200 So what's your position on them getting cash. 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:42.440 Well, you're absolutely right with your first promise, and that 0:07:42.600 --> 0:07:44.920 is that they have doubled down and said, even in 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:48.600 the last week, we are going to get a nuclear weapon. 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:52.600 We are going to continue all of our activities. They 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:56.080 are an existential threat to the United States if they 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:58.120 have the power to attack us, and that means no 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:01.760 nuclear weapon. But also so all of the proxies that 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:06.440 that they're funding, the who these hamas hesballah, And let's 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:08.920 not forget I think they put out a fifty million 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:12.720 dollar bounty on President Trump's head, so they've literally ordered 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:15.680 a high level hit. I've never heard of a fifty 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:21.040 million dollar bounty to assassinate someone that's truly evil. And 0:08:21.120 --> 0:08:24.760 so these people, if we can call them people because 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:29.040 they behave in subhuman ways. These really evil people are 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:34.079 intent on their express and you know, their express determination 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:37.760 to be an existential threat to everything that we hold dear. 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:41.520 They want this caliphate. They are they are. 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:45.360 A kind of religious cult looking for the thirteenth Bodi. 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:50.360 They want revolution, and they want they welcome the terrible 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.480 explosions and the end of everything as we know it, 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.960 because they believe that there's their kind of heaven waiting 0:08:57.000 --> 0:09:00.360 for them. These are really crazy people, That's what President 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:02.880 Trump says. I like that they are crazy people. 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:04.800 So then how do you kind of deal with crazy people? 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:06.599 They're also very hard to negotiate. They spoke to the 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:09.760 President about this personally. They move very slowly. They have 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:12.600 huge layers of bureaucracy so that it's hard to get through. 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:14.680 He says he doesn't even know who he's talking to 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:16.800 some of the time. He said that publicly too, That's 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:19.760 what he said to me before, and he's only echoed 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:22.040 that in the pass. Then how do you go about 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:24.880 this is what's interesting because day to day we're tracking markets, 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.440 we're tracking oil prices, and people are trying to read 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:29.440 tea leaves here. How do you read tea leaves when 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:33.920 you're negotiating with crazy people who are notoriously difficult. 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:34.800 Yeah. 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:38.600 Well, Alex and that's the great question. So, first of all, 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:41.640 Americans are really good to deal with, Like we like 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:44.079 to do deals. We do a lot of deals. I 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:46.719 would say Europeans are good to do deals with. We 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:51.720 all share common common things. The Iranians are probably the 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.920 hardest people to do deals with in the world. Right, 0:09:55.320 --> 0:10:00.400 they have an ancient society, they're very tough negotiators, and 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:03.040 that goes for even American Iranians. I mean, these are 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:05.280 people that are hard to do a deal with. They're 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:09.040 very tough. But you get into this IRGC where it's 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:12.960 like a mafia hard because these are the gangsters that 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:16.720 run the country. It's about thirty one different decentralized nodes 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:20.480 with different leaders, and so it's really hard to take 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:23.320 this on when you don't have one central person that's 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:25.199 going to be the pivot, there's no president. 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:29.960 It's diffuse and I'm not sure how much power really 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:31.839 this mala has. 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:35.200 I think the IRGC is basically in control at this point, 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.600 and I do believe that President Trump is going to 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:41.600 have to go in and do a little more to 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:45.560 just wake them up. They think that they're winning, or 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:48.000 at least that's what their line is. Do you remember 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:50.720 bag Dad Bob during the Iraq War, the guy would 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:53.240 come out, he would say just crazy lies all day, 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:55.840 every day, and I mean you could laugh, but that 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:59.880 was there. That's kind of what the Iranian press is 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:02.839 doing now, is they're just making things up and saying 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:06.440 crazy things. But because there's maybe an idea of the 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:10.080 truth or something that people can hook on. I think 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:13.720 probably there's a certain segment of the Iranian population and 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.439 maybe people living in the Gulf States that might believe it, 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:20.160 maybe twenty percent. But the Iranian people are so oppressed. 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:23.680 They don't have the basic things that those of us 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:27.320 used to living in societies that function have, Like they 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:30.360 didn't do the investments in the infrastructure. They don't have 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.000 functioning water for a lot of the country, things like 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:36.680 that things because the Mala regime did not invest that 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:39.440 money you were mentioning, what would they do with the money. 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:41.920 They're not going to put it in infrastructure. They're going 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.960 to invest in terror and in building more you know, 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.360 three hundred foot deep bunkers, or they're going to make 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:51.600 more bombs. That's who they are. So believe people when 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:53.319 they've shown you over and over again. 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:54.720 So what do we want. 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:57.040 We want infrastructure built, We want the people of Iran 0:11:57.120 --> 0:11:59.960 to be peaceful. There's a group called NCRI that's where 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:03.080 looking on that the National Council Resistance of Iran, and 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:07.800 they want to be a non nuclear, democratically elected republic, 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:11.240 a democracy with equal rights and freedom of religion and 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:11.840 things like that. 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:13.440 So let's see if they can get it done. 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:17.160 There's other groups in Iran that want, you know, similar things, 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:20.559 So let's see if the people can rise up. Unfortunately, 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:24.680 China has exported a lot of its surveillance technology to 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:29.960 Iran because of the agreement between the Malas and China, 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.000 and so it's getting harder and harder for the people 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:36.559 to actually advocate and fight for their independence. 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:38.840 If you've got a problem with aches and pains, perhaps 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.120 youre feeling a little older, a little stiffer these days. 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:42.600 I've got a solution that. 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:47.000 Is Maha pure Maha medical grade red light therapy tool. 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.040 You don't want to get hooked on drugs and pharmaceuticals. 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.560 You don't have been in the doctor's office all the time. Well, 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:53.760 my friend Tom Kerber and the folks. 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They help me and 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.000 code Marlow get you ten percent off at check out 0:13:58.040 --> 0:13:59.520 somepowerled dot com. 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:00.319 Right. 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:04.480 So this is an important point because we're trying to 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:06.240 think about what our best case like, what's the worst 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:08.920 case scenario victory where the best case scenario victories. I mean, 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:10.360 I think all of us would love to see a 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.160 regime change, though I think all of us are not 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.760 holding our breath that that could potentially happen. But we 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:20.000 all hate them all as we hate the IRGC is there. 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:22.840 It just feels like that would just take way too 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:25.080 much time and be too complicated to see that through 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:26.680 to the end. But I think all of us sort 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:28.520 of holding out hope that maybe one day something could 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:29.360 emerge that's not this. 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:36.120 Yeah, I agree, I'm hoping there. President Trump says they're 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.360 in negotiations now. It's I think the Iranians are calling 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:42.480 it the Islamabad Framework. I'm not sure what we're calling it. 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.200 But I saw Steve Wikoff was in that in the 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:47.760 room when he just the president just had his recent 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:51.800 cabinet meeting, and so you know, if if there can 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:56.800 be a negotiated deal, that's fantastic. Otherwise I just think 0:14:56.840 --> 0:15:00.320 we starve them out until they literally society collapses because 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.120 they have no money to pay their military. The RGC 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:07.160 has the leadership, has no money to pay they're you know, 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:11.320 members of the IRGC, and so things just collapse, which 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.040 is what's happening in Cuba right now. So if President 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:16.480 Trump keeps his eye on this and he's willing to 0:15:16.520 --> 0:15:19.760 wait them out, we win. We absolutely win. We're not 0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:22.240 in a hurry for a deal. Time is on our side. 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:24.360 Time is not on Ron. 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.280 So well, one other complicating thing here when it comes 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:29.880 to the Middle East is is Reel attacking Lebanon. I 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:34.200 understand why Israel is doing it because Lebanon is Heswell 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:36.920 is there and they're an ancient foe of Israel's and 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:39.840 Hesbela is proped u Yra and Aron is attracted to 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:42.800 their stuff. They're just hitting docks for Israel. But also 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:45.920 that means that they're gonna invariably, because of the nature 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.000 of the way Hesla operates, there's gonna be innocence who 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:50.680 get injured and killed. 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:51.280 During the process. 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:53.920 I feel like this is not great timing for world 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:57.520 peace that Israel continues to pummel Heswela. Right now, you've 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.120 a thought on this, because they're they're still fighting them. 0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:03.720 Well, I do, actually, so, Egypt used to be a 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:06.840 Christian country. Syria was a Christian country. Lebanon was a 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:09.600 Christian country. People used to call it the Paris of 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:14.920 the Middle East. But the Muslims came in, Hesbela came in, 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:20.560 and they basically they purged. They purged, they killed people, 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.720 and they killed the Christians and drove them out largely. 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.200 It's not any longer a majority Christian country. Could it 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:29.680 be again, I don't know. I think Israel wants to 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:33.320 see if that's possible. Lebanon should be peaceful. It shouldn't 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:36.560 be at war and trying to attack Israel at every turn. 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.800 It should not be a hostile neighbor. And so let's 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:41.960 see what happens, Okay. 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.400 And then so last one for today. You've been doing 0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:46.240 some work on visas. This is something we keep a 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:48.560 close eye on at Breitbark. Could you share some of 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.880 your findings you've had recently with us because this is 0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:53.520 a near and dear issue for us. 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:57.560 Sure, maybe I should publish at Breitbart sometime, Alex, that'd 0:16:57.600 --> 0:16:57.960 be great. 0:16:58.320 --> 0:16:59.240 I love Wreitbart. 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.920 But the fact is that these visas that the US 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:08.359 government has issued to foreigners over the years has resulted 0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:12.520 in is it forty five million or seventy five million 0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:16.760 visa holders? It's American visa holders. It's either forty five 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:18.720 million or seventy five million. I can't remember the number, 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:21.720 but either one is like crazy hoigh millions. 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:23.160 It's a lot of millions. 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:29.040 And the American young college graduates, but even non college 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:33.960 graduates and mid career professionals are losing jobs or opportunity 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:38.119 because we have people from foreign countries coming in. About 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.199 eighty percent of them are Indian. They're coming in and 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:44.399 sometimes they don't even have real credentials. They fake them, 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:48.320 and once the one of these visa holders gets a 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:52.080 hold of like the HR position or leadership position, they 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:55.400 bring in people from their own town. Like if it's Hydrobod, 0:17:55.680 --> 0:18:00.760 everybody's from Hydrobod is now being hired by that company, 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:03.400 or it maybe from their own cast, and they bring 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:06.320 people in from their own cast. But they it seems 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:11.560 like they're favoring illegally people from their own country and 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:14.000 often their own religion or their own cast. 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:16.600 And for America doesn't want cast systems. 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:19.840 We want to be equality, you know, under the eyes 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:23.040 of God, we're all created equal. We don't have cast systems, 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:24.800 we don't know high and low. We can move around 0:18:24.840 --> 0:18:28.000 in society, and so it's a really bad the corruption 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:31.440 that they're bringing and also the sort of bad societal 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:34.119 things that we don't want. We want to have our 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:36.960 American culture that says we're all equal, we meet on 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:40.120 the street. So this is an issue that I think 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:44.200 the government has to pay more attention to. I see 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.119 now Congress is beginning. I just talked to Representative Brandon 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:50.240 Gill and Speaker Johnson about this. These are really big 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:52.640 deal issues that Congress is going to have to get 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:55.720 on top of to end because we need to hire 0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:58.719 American and in an age of AI when there's going 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.520 to be different Chaine just happening in employment, jobs will 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.720 be there, but they may be a little different. We 0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:06.720 want to make sure that those American jobs and even 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:11.000 American universities that they're hiring American. They're not bringing in 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:13.600 people from third world countries because they can spend a 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:16.919 little less, or moving the jobs to a foreign country 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:18.879 because it can cost them a little less if it's 0:19:18.920 --> 0:19:21.920 an American company. This is our two and fiftieth anniversary. 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:24.840 I think they should show some patriotism, and they should 0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:29.080 hire American and celebrate our own great American working people. 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:32.440 Yeah, really really important points. I was interesting, I've been 0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:36.280 I just watched do documentary Hills Deals got coming out 0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:39.800 called Revolutionary America, and they were talking about how diversity 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:42.480 was not the strength of the founders. The whole goal 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:44.880 was to try to get a bunch of a lot 0:19:44.880 --> 0:19:49.280 of diversity, all growing in the same direction, and we 0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:50.200 really lose. 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:50.600 Sight of that. 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:52.720 That That's kind of what got us on the right 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:56.320 track as a country, was trying to say, Okay, everyone's 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.720 got different values, and everyone's got different principles and backgrounds, 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.600 we all got to go in this direction. That's the 0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:05.960 real trick. It's not just announcing, oh, look, with diversity 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:09.680 is beautiful. It can be, sure, but not always. We're 0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:12.360 trying to keep a society together. Sometimes we do need 0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:13.840 to have a collective consciousness. 0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:17.520 Yes, and that's the shared common background that we have 0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:18.360 as Americans. 0:20:18.400 --> 0:20:19.760 It's really really important. 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:22.080 I mean, when we see some of these foreigners that 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:24.960 have been elected to Congress and the crazy ideas and 0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:27.879 the anti American sentiment coming out of their mouths, it 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:29.680 really is kind of shocking. 0:20:30.280 --> 0:20:30.879 Yeah, it really is. 0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:33.640 Okay, anyway, the good stuff Carlos has. Where can people 0:20:33.680 --> 0:20:35.480 find some of your stuff? I know you're writing Daily Caller, 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:37.600 you're writing in Washington Times. You're going to write for me? 0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:44.120 Now we work that's coming up. Hey, I'm easy to find. 0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:45.879 You know where to buy me? So good key with 0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:47.960 the great stuff. I'm enjoying these conversations, and let's do. 0:20:47.920 --> 0:20:48.520 Another one soon. 0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:50.120 Thanks. 0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:54.399 All right. 0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:56.440 One of my favorite people all media, John Carney, is here. 0:20:56.440 --> 0:20:59.439 He's my economic and finance editor at Brightbart News. We 0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:01.680 collaborate frequently on all sorts of different things. The Bright 0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:04.160 Bar Business Digest is a must read newsletter. He does 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:06.639 the heavy lifting and I'm his sidekick on that one. 0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:08.960 And then we also appear quite a bit together on 0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:11.639 bright par Confidential, which is our show for premium members 0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:13.159 that we do over break part. So if your big 0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:15.880 Bright Bar fan supporter, that's a way to get more involved, 0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:18.199 get to know some of your favorite writers and editors 0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:19.080 a little bit better. 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:19.400 John. 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:21.919 I collaborate over there quite a bit, but on the 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:24.480 podcast today, John, because there's just too much economic news 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:26.560 and I just want to start running stuff by you 0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:29.199 and start getting your take on stuff. The first and 0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:33.040 most fun item is breaking this morning. As we're recording this, 0:21:33.080 --> 0:21:36.560 probably a day afters comes out, Trump has allegedly pitched 0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:39.280 a two hundred and fifty dollars bill. I want to 0:21:39.320 --> 0:21:41.080 get your sense on the wisdom of a two hundred 0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:43.960 and fifty dollars bill does what signal does send about 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.560 inflation putting the president on it. I love that idea 0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:51.040 because it trolls all the bad guys. Also the two 0:21:51.080 --> 0:21:53.240 hundred and fiftieth anniversary of the country that kind of 0:21:53.240 --> 0:21:56.240 makes it relevant. Maybe there's all fake news, maybe just 0:21:56.359 --> 0:21:58.200 one of these headfakes, like we're going to buy Greenland, 0:21:58.200 --> 0:21:59.520 even though I want to buy Greenland. 0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:03.400 What is your initial opinion on this stuff? 0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:07.119 So part of me is exactly where you are. I 0:22:07.240 --> 0:22:10.120 really love the idea. A few years ago they were 0:22:10.160 --> 0:22:12.399 trying to get rid of the one hundred dollars bill. 0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:14.480 They thought, like, we. 0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:17.400 You know, we shouldn't have it. One of the reasons though, 0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:18.680 for that, is. 0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:22.800 That the larger denomination bills actually make it much easier 0:22:22.800 --> 0:22:25.280 to do crime. You know, like whenever you see a 0:22:26.040 --> 0:22:28.960 you know, like a drug deal in a movie, right, 0:22:29.040 --> 0:22:32.680 if it's one hundred dollars bills in briefcases. So if 0:22:32.680 --> 0:22:35.720 I were the president, I'd worry a little bit about 0:22:35.760 --> 0:22:38.440 like two hundred and fifty dollars bills in a suitcase 0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:42.440 being used to buy you know, you know, drugs or 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:45.720 guns or whatever. You don't really want your face to 0:22:45.720 --> 0:22:50.240 be the face of criminal activity. On the other hand, look, 0:22:50.760 --> 0:22:52.959 we have had a lot of inflation. We don't have 0:22:53.000 --> 0:22:55.000 we haven't had a higher than one hundred dollars bill 0:22:55.040 --> 0:22:59.840 in quite some time in general circulation, So why not, 0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:02.280 you know, it seems kind of cool. I mean, it 0:23:02.280 --> 0:23:04.920 would be fun to have. You know, they probably won't 0:23:05.000 --> 0:23:06.720 to be honest, they're not going to print that many 0:23:06.760 --> 0:23:08.679 two hundred and fifty dollars bills, right. 0:23:08.880 --> 0:23:10.320 No, I don't know. I use them. 0:23:10.400 --> 0:23:13.639 I've got a couple of things that I use cash for. 0:23:13.920 --> 0:23:16.879 I like having it around. I'm is it you know, 0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:20.720 miss missus doctor Marlow does not like any cash, like 0:23:20.920 --> 0:23:22.399 and then when she asked for cash for me, she 0:23:22.400 --> 0:23:24.400 always once like sixty dollars like some sort of. 0:23:24.560 --> 0:23:28.040 Like really minimal about of cash. But it's for me. 0:23:28.119 --> 0:23:31.520 I like having it, and I do feel like I 0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:33.560 end up sometimes when I go and I get the 0:23:33.600 --> 0:23:34.600 denominations I want. 0:23:35.160 --> 0:23:38.000 The stats are pretty high, so I think it's kind 0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:38.560 of a cool idea. 0:23:38.560 --> 0:23:40.480 Also, Trump being the guy that the rappers, all the 0:23:40.520 --> 0:23:42.800 rappers talked about for so long and then he's our 0:23:42.880 --> 0:23:45.800 richest president and for him to be on the biggest currency, 0:23:45.920 --> 0:23:48.000 I mean, it's just sort of fabulous to me. But 0:23:48.200 --> 0:23:51.000 does that is that necessary? Is it's a waste of time? 0:23:51.040 --> 0:23:53.000 Is it a distraction? What's you're talking? 0:23:53.520 --> 0:23:58.959 She said? I'm not really one hundred percent convinced it's real. So, 0:23:59.520 --> 0:24:02.520 you know, these stories, maybe they pushed for it, maybe 0:24:02.640 --> 0:24:05.399 the Washington Post, you know, talk to some people who 0:24:05.440 --> 0:24:07.439 were you know, that's where the story came from, I 0:24:07.440 --> 0:24:10.040 think originally. So I'm not sure how real it is. 0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:13.440 It could be like, it could be real in that 0:24:13.520 --> 0:24:15.000 like they proposed it, but it might just be in 0:24:15.000 --> 0:24:17.520 no patrol. I would carry around a two hundred and 0:24:17.560 --> 0:24:20.600 fifty dollars Trump bill in my you know, like in 0:24:20.680 --> 0:24:24.080 my wallet. I'd like to have, you know, didn't look, 0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:26.040 I don't want to like encourage criminals out there. I 0:24:26.040 --> 0:24:27.959 always have a little bit of extra cash, I mean, 0:24:28.160 --> 0:24:31.200 just in case, right, So a two hundred and fifty 0:24:31.240 --> 0:24:33.960 dollars bill would make it really easy to have, you know, 0:24:34.119 --> 0:24:37.840 a two hundred and fifty bucks on you at any 0:24:37.960 --> 0:24:40.720 given points. So not, you know, not a terrible idea. 0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:44.080 I do love that. It, you know, will freak people out. 0:24:44.200 --> 0:24:46.320 It's going to you know, all the people who hate 0:24:46.320 --> 0:24:47.960 Donald Trump are going to think this is the end 0:24:48.040 --> 0:24:50.199 of the world. Oh no, he's going to put his 0:24:50.240 --> 0:24:54.560 face on the currency. Come on, like it's it's more 0:24:54.600 --> 0:24:58.040 of a fun thing than anything else. And as you said, 0:24:58.680 --> 0:25:01.640 I bet you you know, it would be fun to have, 0:25:01.880 --> 0:25:05.240 you know, like you said, like rappers, you know, raining 0:25:05.440 --> 0:25:10.240 making it rain money falling to Yeah, that's cool. 0:25:10.920 --> 0:25:13.199 Yeah, I think it's cool too. And it's just like, 0:25:13.440 --> 0:25:14.399 how about how about you. 0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:16.200 Know, like you're giving out a Christmas gift and then 0:25:16.359 --> 0:25:19.359 you pull out four crisp Donald Trump to fifty dollars 0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:21.320 bills forty who's not gonn feel like a million bucks? 0:25:21.400 --> 0:25:23.119 It's only a thousand, but you'll feel like a million 0:25:23.200 --> 0:25:26.119 if you have that. And you know what, imagine giving 0:25:26.119 --> 0:25:28.200 that to like somebody for like the graduation. 0:25:28.320 --> 0:25:31.800 Yeah, exact hard and they got a Trump fill inside. 0:25:31.840 --> 0:25:33.920 I think it's you know, I like it. I like 0:25:34.000 --> 0:25:34.359 the idea. 0:25:34.600 --> 0:25:37.359 I do think sadly though, it does represent that is 0:25:37.480 --> 0:25:39.760 just money is not what it was. I mean, it's 0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:42.720 the I think I got. I think I cracked one 0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:46.040 hundred bucks at the pizza joint last week. John, I 0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:48.399 mean I got, I got, you know, six mouths to 0:25:48.440 --> 0:25:50.679 feed minimum on a given night. So I'm not a 0:25:50.760 --> 0:25:54.320 typical family. But it's the they're small mouths. And I mean, 0:25:54.400 --> 0:25:58.440 it just feels like normal stuff is just so insanely expensive. 0:25:59.080 --> 0:26:02.080 As I've been known to know that the uh, the 0:26:02.080 --> 0:26:06.200 the credit card fraud alert goes off on my gap 0:26:06.320 --> 0:26:08.080 on two of my cars, like I can't fill the 0:26:08.119 --> 0:26:12.919 car before the credit card limit kicks in in California. 0:26:13.119 --> 0:26:14.320 And not great. 0:26:14.520 --> 0:26:17.520 Two hundred and fifty dollars is the new one hundred dollars. Sure, 0:26:17.640 --> 0:26:24.280 that's that's not That's not great. And I but I think, really, 0:26:26.520 --> 0:26:28.800 like I said, there's not going to be a ton 0:26:29.080 --> 0:26:31.120 of use for the two hundred and fifty dollars bills, 0:26:31.160 --> 0:26:33.359 Like I said, mostly you would. I think it would 0:26:33.400 --> 0:26:35.919 be you know, people use it for gifts, they'd use 0:26:35.920 --> 0:26:39.760 it to carry around some extra cash. So there's probably 0:26:39.760 --> 0:26:41.600 not going to be a ton of these things ever pricked, 0:26:42.160 --> 0:26:45.040 which you know also might make them collectors' items. Because, 0:26:45.040 --> 0:26:46.960 by the way, if the Democrat ever gets in office, 0:26:46.960 --> 0:26:48.560 do you think they're going to keep the two hundred 0:26:48.600 --> 0:26:51.879 and fifty dollars bills with Donald Trump's face in the circulation? 0:26:52.520 --> 0:26:56.040 They will end that as soon as they can, which, uh, 0:26:56.359 --> 0:26:59.680 you know, might make them collectors items. Right, we might 0:26:59.720 --> 0:27:02.119 have two hundred and fifty dollars bulls in a frame 0:27:02.200 --> 0:27:05.800 that are worth five hundred dollars because they've been discontinued 0:27:05.920 --> 0:27:10.920 by the Kamala Harris or you know, Gavin Newsome administration. 0:27:11.000 --> 0:27:12.680 At some point, I've been saying, I think it's gonna 0:27:12.680 --> 0:27:14.200 be hear us. I've been I've got to you know, 0:27:14.280 --> 0:27:15.920 my track record on this is second to none. I 0:27:16.000 --> 0:27:17.840 feel like she's by far at the front runner, sign 0:27:17.880 --> 0:27:21.360 him close. So it's the it'd be so magnanimous, though 0:27:21.440 --> 0:27:24.840 if she she let it go one, it's. 0:27:24.680 --> 0:27:26.040 So perfect, it's so perfect. 0:27:26.280 --> 0:27:27.879 And look, it's the I don't even know if it 0:27:27.880 --> 0:27:32.080 sends the right message with the fact that disinflation is 0:27:32.480 --> 0:27:35.560 it's too high and it's lower than it wasn't her Biden, 0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:37.400 but it's too high and we're gonna get to that momentarily. 0:27:37.440 --> 0:27:40.160 But before we get to inflation, which is on my list, John, 0:27:40.880 --> 0:27:42.560 this is as a recording. Is a big day because 0:27:42.560 --> 0:27:44.920 Trump accounts are open. There's a Trump account app. I'm 0:27:44.960 --> 0:27:48.040 not played with it, but I anticipate trying to do 0:27:48.119 --> 0:27:49.080 so today right away. 0:27:49.080 --> 0:27:50.520 I want to know what's going on over there. 0:27:50.800 --> 0:27:53.600 This does feel like potentially a big moment for people 0:27:53.600 --> 0:27:55.679 who are trying to come up with any way to 0:27:55.760 --> 0:27:58.360 scrimp and save for their future, for their children. 0:27:58.840 --> 0:28:00.920 What is this? What do we you know about? Yeah? 0:28:00.920 --> 0:28:03.600 So the great thing about the Trump account it is 0:28:04.040 --> 0:28:06.679 another way to save for your children's future. 0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:09.240 There is right now. 0:28:09.560 --> 0:28:13.040 So if you had a kid born in between January 0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:16.840 first of twenty twenty five and or over the next 0:28:16.920 --> 0:28:20.199 couple years, you actually get a thousand bucks to start 0:28:20.240 --> 0:28:22.720 the accounting. My kids are too old for that, so 0:28:22.760 --> 0:28:26.000 I'm not going to get the thousand bucks, although you could, 0:28:26.040 --> 0:28:30.399 you know, talk to our CEO. Because employers are allowed 0:28:30.440 --> 0:28:34.000 to contribute, parents are allowed to contribute, grandparents are allowed 0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:35.639 to contribute. 0:28:35.040 --> 0:28:39.400 And this money has to be putt in relatively safe investments, 0:28:39.440 --> 0:28:43.640 basically an S and P five hundred fund. So it's not, 0:28:43.800 --> 0:28:48.320 you know, like you can't do crazy investments. It's not 0:28:48.480 --> 0:28:50.560 money that's really going to be at risk. But it 0:28:50.600 --> 0:28:54.200 gives away I think, to put more people in the 0:28:54.240 --> 0:28:55.400 market give. 0:28:55.520 --> 0:28:57.920 When you try to educate kids about how like the 0:28:57.960 --> 0:29:01.080 stock market works and they don't have any skin in 0:29:01.080 --> 0:29:03.840 the game, it's hard for them to really learn this 0:29:03.880 --> 0:29:05.080 could potentially mean. 0:29:05.120 --> 0:29:05.760 And I talked to. 0:29:05.960 --> 0:29:09.760 A high school teacher, a friend of mine, who said, 0:29:09.920 --> 0:29:12.000 even exists would be great if all the kids in 0:29:12.080 --> 0:29:15.440 his class had Trump accounts so that they could actually 0:29:15.480 --> 0:29:18.400 be tracking how their accounts are doing, how the stock 0:29:18.400 --> 0:29:20.320 market is doing will actually affect them. 0:29:20.720 --> 0:29:22.000 That'd be really good. 0:29:22.080 --> 0:29:23.880 I got to say that this is something that I 0:29:23.920 --> 0:29:27.360 don't do a lot of interesting investments, John, but it's 0:29:27.360 --> 0:29:29.840 in my I would really love it. And if I 0:29:29.840 --> 0:29:32.440 had more money when I was in college, I worked 0:29:32.440 --> 0:29:34.160 in college at one or two jobs at a time, 0:29:34.200 --> 0:29:35.760 but I never had enough where I was like, really 0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:37.920 able to make a difference. If I had enough of 0:29:37.960 --> 0:29:40.680 an estay where I could really I could have seen 0:29:40.800 --> 0:29:43.400 building habits where I'm way on top of that stuff 0:29:43.400 --> 0:29:46.280 at an early age. And I'm treating it as though 0:29:46.520 --> 0:29:48.400 it's a game that you can win in the stakes 0:29:48.400 --> 0:29:50.280 so you can make more money at it, and it 0:29:50.440 --> 0:29:53.800 just feels like something that could be really it could 0:29:53.840 --> 0:29:55.720 be a good teaching tool, is the main thing. 0:29:56.680 --> 0:29:59.680 That's one of the ways Treasury Secretary Scott beston what's that. 0:30:00.160 --> 0:30:02.400 He's really big on the idea that we can increase 0:30:02.400 --> 0:30:05.360 Americans financial literacy, and he thinks this will actually be 0:30:05.480 --> 0:30:11.680 a great tool to help young Americans understand the value 0:30:11.680 --> 0:30:15.600 of savings over time. One of the things I really 0:30:15.640 --> 0:30:18.120 like about these accounts is we've had similar things. There 0:30:18.160 --> 0:30:20.800 are these five twenty nine accounts where you can save, 0:30:20.880 --> 0:30:23.440 but it has to be spent on education. This is 0:30:23.520 --> 0:30:26.520 not limited in this way, so it can be spent 0:30:26.880 --> 0:30:31.040 after your child is no longer eighteen years old, particularly 0:30:31.120 --> 0:30:33.880 once they get a couple of years beyond that. They 0:30:33.920 --> 0:30:36.959 really shouldn't be spending it immediately, but it can be 0:30:37.120 --> 0:30:40.800 used to do things like put down a down payment 0:30:40.840 --> 0:30:46.080 for a house started this, or just accumulating savings for retirement. 0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:50.080 I think that's really great. It's not restricted. It's not 0:30:50.440 --> 0:30:53.360 a subsidy for colleges, which is more or less what 0:30:53.360 --> 0:30:56.600 the five twenty nine things were. 0:30:56.840 --> 0:30:59.640 The other things there were like you could do a 0:30:59.800 --> 0:31:02.480 rawira for your kids, so you could do a traditional 0:31:02.520 --> 0:31:04.680 ira for your kids but it had to be money 0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:08.160 that the keys themselves earned, which might was like you know, 0:31:08.320 --> 0:31:12.440 basically like a child actor subsidy. It was not something 0:31:12.480 --> 0:31:15.440 aimed for everyone. This is an account that everybody can use, 0:31:15.880 --> 0:31:20.720 and particularly if you are a new parent. It's free money. 0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:23.440 I mean, the government is literally cutting you a check 0:31:23.800 --> 0:31:27.400 and giving those too. There are also charitable organizations that 0:31:27.440 --> 0:31:29.560 are giving people money, and a lot of employers have 0:31:29.640 --> 0:31:35.920 said they will match their employee contributions to these accounts. 0:31:36.320 --> 0:31:39.840 That's really good. And you know, the key to any. 0:31:39.680 --> 0:31:44.120 Savings, and you were alluding to this earlier is time, Right, 0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:47.600 the earlier you start to time in a bank in 0:31:47.640 --> 0:31:52.480 an account, particularly one that's invested in something like that SIP, 0:31:52.600 --> 0:31:54.120 which is going to go up a lot more than money. 0:31:54.160 --> 0:31:55.600 You know, you put money in a bank account, you 0:31:55.640 --> 0:31:57.520 don't get a lot of interest, but if you could 0:31:57.560 --> 0:31:59.680 grow on average seventy eight percent a year, which is 0:31:59.680 --> 0:32:02.760 what the simptas, that really adds up. 0:32:02.800 --> 0:32:05.640 So after forty years you will have gained a lot 0:32:05.720 --> 0:32:09.000 of money accumulated. I think it's it's a great opportunity 0:32:09.040 --> 0:32:09.800 for Americans. 0:32:09.920 --> 0:32:12.440 Yeah, I can't wait. I'm gonna get my kids involved immediately. 0:32:12.520 --> 0:32:14.920 Maybe even as early as today. It's just good stuff 0:32:15.000 --> 0:32:17.440 from the president. And it's good that we can have 0:32:17.520 --> 0:32:20.120 a minute to talk about something positive that's putting on 0:32:21.120 --> 0:32:21.400 you know. 0:32:21.440 --> 0:32:25.719 Like like they made it maximally easy. Yeah, you know, 0:32:25.840 --> 0:32:28.200 everything's on it app. But it's kind of it's very 0:32:28.200 --> 0:32:30.920 annoying that so many other things that the government tries 0:32:30.960 --> 0:32:33.840 to do, you have to go through like a million hoops, 0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:36.760 get a form mailed to you and you know, fill 0:32:36.760 --> 0:32:39.040 it out and then mail back or forth. This isn't 0:32:39.080 --> 0:32:42.720 like that you can actually start it on your phone. 0:32:42.880 --> 0:32:45.840 Yes, that's exactly right. And I just like that and 0:32:45.920 --> 0:32:48.960 the simplicity. So and I want to keep an eye 0:32:48.960 --> 0:32:51.680 on the app because recall, you know, president won't always 0:32:51.680 --> 0:32:54.120 have a great track record of starting new apps. 0:32:53.840 --> 0:32:57.440 Or yeah, it's like this, you know, is this they're 0:32:57.440 --> 0:33:01.480 going to crash They these things happen if too many 0:33:01.480 --> 0:33:03.080 people try to sign up all at once. 0:33:03.360 --> 0:33:07.160 It happened for Obamacare and many other places as well. 0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:10.160 But like the fact that Obamacare the biggest bet that 0:33:10.200 --> 0:33:12.760 Barack Obama made his whole administration, and the heat botched 0:33:12.800 --> 0:33:17.640 the website. Just stutting stuff. Okay, John, here's the main question. 0:33:17.760 --> 0:33:19.320 This is the biggest question. I want to take on 0:33:19.360 --> 0:33:22.440 those two specifics, but this is the most the biggest thing, 0:33:22.880 --> 0:33:24.840 What is the state of the US economy? Every time 0:33:24.840 --> 0:33:26.800 you're on it's because I want to give the audience 0:33:26.880 --> 0:33:30.400 a assessment from your vantage point, because whenever I look down 0:33:30.480 --> 0:33:33.200 at the news on a given day, I'm seeing certain 0:33:33.240 --> 0:33:36.360 gauges that look positive, certain gauges that look negative. 0:33:36.600 --> 0:33:37.960 Let me go through some of the stuff. 0:33:37.680 --> 0:33:39.360 That you've been reporting on for us at bright barp 0:33:39.400 --> 0:33:42.600 and in the bright Bar Business Digest. So it's the 0:33:42.880 --> 0:33:47.400 consumer sentiment historic low. Americans are increasingly gloomy, including Trump supporters, 0:33:47.440 --> 0:33:48.320 about the economy. 0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:52.160 But businesses are seeing strong sales growth. We just saw 0:33:52.200 --> 0:33:55.200 today Cohle's is anticipating bigger sales growth. But there are 0:33:55.200 --> 0:33:56.040 some exceptions to this. 0:33:56.160 --> 0:33:59.800 Some car companies are seeing they're cutting their forecasts. 0:34:00.360 --> 0:34:01.680 Businesses are betting. 0:34:01.720 --> 0:34:05.000 According to your bright Our Business Digest article from a 0:34:05.080 --> 0:34:08.160 couple of days ago, they're betting on a boom taking place. 0:34:08.680 --> 0:34:12.960 And the FEDS preferred inflation gauge is up, but not 0:34:13.280 --> 0:34:15.680 up as much as the experts predicted. 0:34:16.120 --> 0:34:17.719 All of this makes a very. 0:34:17.480 --> 0:34:20.480 Confusing environment for people who are even I think pretty 0:34:20.560 --> 0:34:23.480 observant about this stuff. So I know that's a lot 0:34:23.520 --> 0:34:27.080 to bite off, but let's just get into it where 0:34:27.080 --> 0:34:27.479 we at. 0:34:28.239 --> 0:34:31.479 Yeah, so the most so, yes, you're right, let's start 0:34:31.520 --> 0:34:35.200 with where you end in inflation. Uh, inflation is up, 0:34:35.320 --> 0:34:37.839 and it is up year over year. It's way too high. 0:34:37.880 --> 0:34:40.960 It's three point eight percent. A huge part of that 0:34:41.000 --> 0:34:41.759 it's gasoline. 0:34:41.760 --> 0:34:41.960 Though. 0:34:42.719 --> 0:34:45.799 Core inflation it's like three point three percent. Still too high, 0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:49.280 and we did want it to rise, right, everybody wants 0:34:49.280 --> 0:34:52.080 inflation to go down. The Fed end for two percent, 0:34:52.160 --> 0:34:58.360 we're well above that. Uh, and again gasoline politific. But 0:34:58.400 --> 0:35:02.359 even if you take out gasoline, inflation still rows, and 0:35:02.640 --> 0:35:05.800 it is and it's going up at two fasted picks. 0:35:06.080 --> 0:35:08.560 The thing that really amazed me those is if you 0:35:08.600 --> 0:35:12.120 look at the consumer spending numbers that were released alongside 0:35:12.120 --> 0:35:18.319 those inflation numbers, the personal consumption expenditures, those are up 0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:21.960 a lot, in other words, and not just even outside 0:35:22.000 --> 0:35:26.480 of gasoline. So people actually haven't yet what the high 0:35:26.520 --> 0:35:30.160 price of gasoline mean that they're not buying other things. 0:35:30.280 --> 0:35:32.319 That was my big fear with the economy, right that 0:35:32.840 --> 0:35:35.640 you once you get gas heading up to four dollars 0:35:35.640 --> 0:35:38.960 and fifty cents. People have less money to spend on 0:35:39.120 --> 0:35:42.760 other things. Less why it just spend on groceries, on shoes, 0:35:42.960 --> 0:35:46.560 on clothing, on haircuts, right on services. 0:35:46.600 --> 0:35:48.040 You know, we're not seeing that. 0:35:48.080 --> 0:35:52.840 Actually, consumers are being resilient to the high gas prices. 0:35:53.600 --> 0:35:56.360 That's not great, you know, meaning people are going to 0:35:56.400 --> 0:36:01.719 feel stretched. They're real spending, meaning it's after inflation is 0:36:01.760 --> 0:36:05.760 actually falling, meaning they're getting less stuff for their money. 0:36:05.880 --> 0:36:07.760 But that's going to happen when you have gas prices 0:36:07.800 --> 0:36:11.520 go up twenty They're close to thirty percent year over 0:36:11.640 --> 0:36:17.160 year according to the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, So people 0:36:17.239 --> 0:36:19.680 are still spending. They're not being scared out of this. 0:36:19.960 --> 0:36:23.960 I think a big part of that is that unemployment 0:36:24.080 --> 0:36:27.320 is very low. Jobless claims are very low, which means 0:36:27.480 --> 0:36:29.280 people are not losing their jobs. 0:36:29.840 --> 0:36:31.280 So that is encouraging. 0:36:31.320 --> 0:36:34.760 As long as that measure holds up, people are going 0:36:34.840 --> 0:36:37.239 to be able to keep spending. And I think a 0:36:37.280 --> 0:36:42.000 lot of people do think that, unlike when if gas 0:36:42.080 --> 0:36:45.400 prices rise, because you know, we've had like a policy 0:36:45.560 --> 0:36:49.440 change that's going to permanently raise gas prices. People I 0:36:49.440 --> 0:36:53.600 think are looking at this gas price increase and saying 0:36:53.600 --> 0:36:57.200 it's temporary, so they're not saying, oh, I can't buy 0:36:57.239 --> 0:36:58.320 other things. 0:36:57.960 --> 0:37:01.520 Because gas is so high. They don't like gas being high, 0:37:01.600 --> 0:37:03.960 but they think they can still keep spending because they 0:37:04.160 --> 0:37:06.279 think eventually gas prices will come back down. 0:37:06.320 --> 0:37:08.920 And I think they're right. I'm not sure they'll come 0:37:08.960 --> 0:37:12.120 back down very quickly. I think we may be stuck 0:37:12.160 --> 0:37:14.080 with high gas prices for several months. 0:37:14.280 --> 0:37:15.399 There's good news, you know. 0:37:16.880 --> 0:37:19.640 I think the latest news is that there is a 0:37:19.960 --> 0:37:23.440 you know, maybe something of an agreement to reopen the 0:37:23.440 --> 0:37:27.120 Straight of Her Moves. But I don't think that's going 0:37:27.200 --> 0:37:29.680 to make gas prices go down at three dollars and 0:37:29.800 --> 0:37:33.000 fifty cents anytime in the next two months. I think 0:37:33.000 --> 0:37:36.120 we're stuck through a lot of the summer with high 0:37:36.120 --> 0:37:36.720 gas prices. 0:37:36.800 --> 0:37:38.399 Yeah, I think so too, because I think it takes 0:37:38.440 --> 0:37:38.719 a while. 0:37:38.719 --> 0:37:42.000 And then also remember the the it's a lagging index, 0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:47.480 and also the summer formula that they use is more expensive. 0:37:47.600 --> 0:37:50.120 So it's just one of those things that we're going 0:37:50.160 --> 0:37:52.319 to have to deal with. They'll come down eventually, but 0:37:52.360 --> 0:37:54.200 not yet. So I'm just trying to square this circle 0:37:54.239 --> 0:37:56.200 where you're saying businesses are betting on a boom. I 0:37:56.200 --> 0:37:58.719 want you explain that at the same time we're seeing 0:37:58.760 --> 0:38:02.000 consumer sentiment falls the floor, at the same time we're 0:38:02.040 --> 0:38:06.080 seeing Coals raise their projections for earnings. 0:38:06.600 --> 0:38:09.640 Yeah, so look, Coal's numbers will just to be honest, 0:38:09.680 --> 0:38:13.480 aren't really that great. They're better than people expected. But 0:38:13.640 --> 0:38:15.600 Coals has had I just use that as. 0:38:15.480 --> 0:38:17.479 An example of sort of just like an average store, 0:38:17.600 --> 0:38:20.840 average people buy average stuff at right, Coles has. 0:38:20.680 --> 0:38:24.000 Some management problems. They even admitted this. 0:38:24.360 --> 0:38:26.359 I just want to like put this out there so 0:38:26.400 --> 0:38:29.880 people don't think I'm counting Coals, Coals and Vincent like 0:38:29.920 --> 0:38:31.759 they have a problem. People walk into their store and 0:38:31.760 --> 0:38:33.399 they can't find the stuff they want to buy. 0:38:33.440 --> 0:38:36.399 Their merchandise isn't exactly right, but they're stuck. 0:38:36.480 --> 0:38:40.160 Is up twenty percent because they're actually doing better than 0:38:40.200 --> 0:38:41.520 a lot of people expected. 0:38:42.239 --> 0:38:44.799 We saw that would best buy. Also they're doing they're 0:38:44.840 --> 0:38:46.200 they're doing better than expected. 0:38:46.640 --> 0:38:51.560 The numbers that informed my piece about the businesses expected 0:38:51.640 --> 0:38:55.040 boom comes from the survey of businesses that the atlant 0:38:55.040 --> 0:38:58.200 of Fen does, and they expect that we're going to 0:38:58.239 --> 0:39:03.680 see a huge risons sales over the next year, and 0:39:03.719 --> 0:39:07.960 not because prices are going up. Yes, that also contributes 0:39:08.000 --> 0:39:10.800 to it. But because I think people will be buying more, 0:39:11.080 --> 0:39:14.920 businesses are confidence. So yes, you have consumer sentiment really, 0:39:15.200 --> 0:39:19.160 really down. The University of Michigan's measure is at the 0:39:19.320 --> 0:39:22.520 all time low. That to me blows my mind. But 0:39:22.600 --> 0:39:25.960 I heard a good explanation for it. I mean, think 0:39:26.000 --> 0:39:28.560 about that, it's lower than it was during the pandemic, 0:39:28.640 --> 0:39:31.640 right when we block everything down. It's lower than it 0:39:31.800 --> 0:39:34.480 was during the financial crisis in two thousand and eight 0:39:34.480 --> 0:39:37.520 and two thousand and nine. How could it be that 0:39:37.560 --> 0:39:42.000 at four point three percent unemployment, the economy growing, you know, 0:39:42.440 --> 0:39:48.520 a AI investment boom happening, businesses, stock markets at an 0:39:48.560 --> 0:39:50.879 all time Just to put it the easiest way, stock 0:39:50.920 --> 0:39:54.040 market is at an all time high and consumer sentiment 0:39:54.080 --> 0:39:54.919 is at all time low. 0:39:55.400 --> 0:40:00.080 What's going on there? My favorite theory right now is 0:40:00.120 --> 0:40:05.040 that there's been a sort of cumulative impact on consumer sentiment. 0:40:05.640 --> 0:40:08.800 It just off. It seems like it's one thing after another, 0:40:09.400 --> 0:40:09.919 right like. 0:40:10.239 --> 0:40:14.279 You know, you get the financial crisis, then you get 0:40:14.280 --> 0:40:17.720 the slow growth and the sort of depressing Obama years. 0:40:18.200 --> 0:40:20.440 Things went pretty well under Donald Trump, but then we 0:40:20.480 --> 0:40:22.920 got hit with the pandemic, and then we got hit 0:40:23.000 --> 0:40:26.240 with Biden inflation, and so I think even when times 0:40:26.239 --> 0:40:29.840 are good now, people don't feel good about the economy 0:40:29.880 --> 0:40:32.960 because they feel like they get ambushed every time. It's 0:40:33.000 --> 0:40:35.760 like when the you know, you're watching like a horror 0:40:35.800 --> 0:40:39.440 movie and the nice music comes on, You're supposed to relax, 0:40:39.520 --> 0:40:42.200 but you don't relax, you know, the like you know 0:40:42.239 --> 0:40:43.879 they're going to open the door and the killers right 0:40:43.880 --> 0:40:44.319 behind it. 0:40:44.400 --> 0:40:46.439 Right, that's what's happening. I think that's how people feel 0:40:46.440 --> 0:40:47.200 about the economy. 0:40:47.440 --> 0:40:52.560 The cumulative effect of all of the series of bad 0:40:52.600 --> 0:40:55.800 things that have happened to us, it has just basically 0:40:55.840 --> 0:41:01.759 depressed consumer sentiment. But look, consumers might not feel good 0:41:01.800 --> 0:41:05.239 about the economy, but and years ago that would have 0:41:05.280 --> 0:41:07.759 been indicated that they were going to spend a lot. 0:41:08.400 --> 0:41:09.600 But that's not happening. 0:41:09.640 --> 0:41:14.279 We actually aren't seeing a tight correlation between how consumers 0:41:14.320 --> 0:41:19.000 say they feel about the economy and how they act. 0:41:18.840 --> 0:41:20.000 About the economy. I mean. 0:41:20.080 --> 0:41:22.480 One of the other thing that's going on, obviously, is 0:41:22.560 --> 0:41:25.719 Democrats are out of their mind when it comes to 0:41:25.760 --> 0:41:28.320 think about the economy. I just looked at an economists 0:41:28.360 --> 0:41:32.640 you gou pull and fifty five percent of Democrats think 0:41:33.360 --> 0:41:37.520 that we're in a recession right now, you know, the 0:41:37.560 --> 0:41:40.080 first procession we've ever had where nobody ever lost their job. 0:41:42.239 --> 0:41:46.279 Another twenty four percent of Democrats say we're likely to 0:41:46.280 --> 0:41:51.360 be in a recession sometime over the next twelve months. 0:41:51.640 --> 0:41:59.759 So then you're looking at eighty eighty something percent of Democrats. 0:42:00.120 --> 0:42:02.719 We are not such an are headed one. So that's 0:42:02.800 --> 0:42:07.919 automatically going to weigh down any measure of consumer sentiment. Now, 0:42:07.960 --> 0:42:11.840 we have seen a little shakiness on the part of Republicans. 0:42:12.360 --> 0:42:14.880 Trump voters, people who say they're maga, people would say 0:42:14.880 --> 0:42:18.680 they're conservatives. Their consumer sentiment has come down, but they're 0:42:18.680 --> 0:42:22.800 nowhere near as depressed. That's these awful Democrat numbers were getting. 0:42:22.960 --> 0:42:25.239 I think Democrats just hate Donald Trump and they will 0:42:25.320 --> 0:42:28.520 never feel good about the economy as long as Donald 0:42:28.560 --> 0:42:29.560 Trump still around. 0:42:29.800 --> 0:42:31.640 All right, if you're watching what's happening in i Ran 0:42:31.719 --> 0:42:34.240 right now, you already know this isn't another headline. 0:42:34.280 --> 0:42:35.680 It's potential turning point. 0:42:36.080 --> 0:42:38.760 When conflict breaks out of the mid least, oil moves 0:42:38.800 --> 0:42:40.680 first and everything follows. 0:42:41.200 --> 0:42:44.920 Gas prices rise, shipping costs bike, and suddenly your dollar 0:42:45.040 --> 0:42:45.960 doesn't go as far. 0:42:46.680 --> 0:42:49.760 We've seen this before and now, banks like JP Morgan 0:42:49.800 --> 0:42:53.800 and Bank of America are forecasting higher gold and silver ahead, 0:42:53.880 --> 0:42:56.600 and central banks are buying gold. 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And it feels like there's 0:44:04.360 --> 0:44:06.839 unless you're some sort of a capitalist that prefers Trump 0:44:06.920 --> 0:44:10.280 to Democrats secretly, which I do think that's a subset 0:44:10.280 --> 0:44:15.080 of people. But again, John, I guess the main question 0:44:15.160 --> 0:44:17.960 I've got here is, other than the war, is there 0:44:17.960 --> 0:44:20.480 anything else inflation area that's going on that you feel 0:44:20.520 --> 0:44:23.799 like is not good and the Trump adminstration should rein 0:44:23.880 --> 0:44:24.799 in No. 0:44:26.360 --> 0:44:28.880 I actually think that's the fantastic I'm happy to hear it. 0:44:29.520 --> 0:44:33.279 I think the economy is doing really well even despite 0:44:33.320 --> 0:44:33.920 the war. Right. 0:44:34.239 --> 0:44:36.760 The thing that impressed me the most about the latest 0:44:36.800 --> 0:44:41.759 consider spending numbers that we got today was that it 0:44:41.840 --> 0:44:44.440 didn't disrupt people as much as I thought that it would. 0:44:44.680 --> 0:44:47.239 I you know, I think we've talked about this. My 0:44:47.320 --> 0:44:51.359 biggest fear was that people would have to pull back 0:44:51.400 --> 0:44:53.640 on spending because they're spending so much on gasoline. We're 0:44:53.680 --> 0:44:56.759 not seeing that. So the economy is doing well. Employment 0:44:56.840 --> 0:45:01.680 is doing well, business investment is booming, The hiring has 0:45:01.719 --> 0:45:05.360 been really good for several months, and layoffs are almost 0:45:05.400 --> 0:45:06.040 non existent. 0:45:06.360 --> 0:45:08.120 So the economy is doing very well. 0:45:08.600 --> 0:45:13.200 The gas price oil prices are the obstacle to it 0:45:13.280 --> 0:45:17.000 doing even better. But what I would say is even 0:45:17.200 --> 0:45:20.399 with those gas prices, we're still doing well. So it's 0:45:20.440 --> 0:45:23.880 not like we could be doing well if not for 0:45:23.920 --> 0:45:26.799 gas prices. It's we are doing well, and we could 0:45:26.800 --> 0:45:29.799 be doing even better if we didn't. 0:45:29.480 --> 0:45:31.240 Have gas prices as highs. 0:45:31.000 --> 0:45:35.600 There, John Carney, what else do you feel like the 0:45:35.640 --> 0:45:38.680 audience we should impress upon them during our remaining time 0:45:38.680 --> 0:45:40.920 that we've got today on this very podcast. 0:45:41.840 --> 0:45:45.200 So I think we're going to get next week some 0:45:45.320 --> 0:45:48.680 employment numbers, and those will be important, But. 0:45:48.800 --> 0:45:51.040 Is it jobs? Is it jobs week? Already? We're already here, 0:45:52.000 --> 0:45:54.880 not tomorrow, not Friday, but next weekend. 0:45:55.239 --> 0:46:01.120 Next week we're back to jobs Friday, and we've had 0:46:01.239 --> 0:46:05.640 several good months where jobs numbers really blew away expectations. 0:46:06.280 --> 0:46:08.960 I think we're going to see a pretty strong jobs 0:46:09.040 --> 0:46:09.600 number again. 0:46:10.040 --> 0:46:12.080 But the one thing I want to like tell everybody 0:46:12.080 --> 0:46:14.480 about this because you'll often hear people say, well, the 0:46:14.560 --> 0:46:17.840 job's numbers, we're not adding that many jobs in the economy, 0:46:18.640 --> 0:46:21.480 and this is the mental reset a lot of people 0:46:21.560 --> 0:46:25.280 haven't yet made. We don't need to add many jobs 0:46:25.360 --> 0:46:29.600 in the American economy. We are actually very near full employment. 0:46:30.080 --> 0:46:32.480 We needed to add a lot of jobs when the 0:46:32.520 --> 0:46:35.480 population was growing fast. We needed to add a lot 0:46:35.520 --> 0:46:38.160 of jobs during the Biden administration because they were letting 0:46:38.200 --> 0:46:40.640 in millions of people a year over the border. 0:46:41.080 --> 0:46:42.120 We put an end to that. 0:46:42.680 --> 0:46:45.120 So the at growth of the labor force is now 0:46:45.320 --> 0:46:49.400 very low. A month where we get ten thousand jobs 0:46:50.120 --> 0:46:54.000 is a good month. That's something that like the economic 0:46:54.080 --> 0:46:57.000 pundits haven't gotten their head around, and I don't think 0:46:57.000 --> 0:47:00.360 the American public has either. We're used to seeing one 0:47:00.440 --> 0:47:03.959 hundred two hundred thousand jobs as a good month. We're 0:47:03.960 --> 0:47:06.759 not yet used to seeing ten thousand jobs is a 0:47:06.760 --> 0:47:09.960 good month. I think we're going to have to readjust 0:47:09.960 --> 0:47:12.799 our expectations of that. And it's not a downgrading of 0:47:12.800 --> 0:47:13.680 our expectations. 0:47:13.760 --> 0:47:13.920 Right. 0:47:13.920 --> 0:47:16.640 I'm not saying, like, get used to bad jobs reports. 0:47:16.719 --> 0:47:20.640 I'm saying, rethink what a good jobs report is. When 0:47:20.640 --> 0:47:25.600 you have very low unemployment and low labor force growth, 0:47:25.960 --> 0:47:29.720 you just are not going to be adding that many employees. Instead, 0:47:29.800 --> 0:47:34.080 businesses are going to grow by increasing productivity and investing 0:47:34.520 --> 0:47:39.480 in equipment, machinery, doing capital expenditures. That's how they're going 0:47:39.520 --> 0:47:43.040 to grow workers. And by the way, that's a path 0:47:43.120 --> 0:47:46.759 to higher wages for workers, non inflationary. Higher wages need 0:47:47.080 --> 0:47:50.520 more productivity. So this is a good development for the 0:47:50.600 --> 0:47:55.359 US economy. But people's minds aren't yet there. So when 0:47:55.360 --> 0:47:58.719 we watch the jobs evers coming next month, look, I 0:47:58.840 --> 0:48:00.879 know I'm not going to try to dicked exactly where 0:48:00.880 --> 0:48:03.160 they're going to come out, but I will say the 0:48:03.280 --> 0:48:07.680 number might not look good by historical standards, but it 0:48:07.760 --> 0:48:10.640 may be amazing. 0:48:10.080 --> 0:48:12.200 By what we need right now for the US economy. 0:48:13.239 --> 0:48:16.080 John Carney, Economic and Finance editor for Bry Partners. Always 0:48:16.160 --> 0:48:18.319 appreciate the insight that you give me, and really I 0:48:18.320 --> 0:48:19.759 get coached up in these things. I always have my 0:48:19.840 --> 0:48:22.960 number two pencil I type, but I do theory to 0:48:22.960 --> 0:48:26.440 have my modern version of that out, so I learn 0:48:26.480 --> 0:48:28.720 a bit when we talk to John. Thank you, my friend, 0:48:28.760 --> 0:48:30.200 and thanks to all of you in the audience. Thanks 0:48:30.200 --> 0:48:32.719 Misty for putting it together, and all of you for 0:48:32.719 --> 0:48:34.799 a two on ten thousand friends and family members about 0:48:34.800 --> 0:48:35.080 the show. 0:48:35.160 --> 0:48:35.719 See you next time.