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Speaker 1: Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, and good night. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Aaron Mullins Show. As always, it is so

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Speaker 1: wonderful to have your company. This is a very special

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Speaker 1: weekend edition with a very special guest. I got to

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Speaker 1: meet him in person in Washington last week, Elliot Abrams.

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Speaker 1: He's worked in foreign policy for well you name it,

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Speaker 1: President Reagan, President Bush, junior President Trump. Imagine being able

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Speaker 1: to walk into the Oval Office. I mean just imagine

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Speaker 1: that for US immortals. That's a very very cool. But

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Speaker 1: imagine being able to do that, look the president in

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Speaker 1: the eye and tell him what you think he should do. Well,

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Speaker 1: that is what Elliot Abrams has been able to do

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Speaker 1: with three separate presidents. And an extension of that, sometimes

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Speaker 1: they listen. In fact, it hasard a guess that they

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Speaker 1: would listen much more often than they wouldn't.

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Speaker 2: He is utterly brilliant.

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Speaker 1: So I got to see him in real life, which

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Speaker 1: was amazing, and then I said, well, you have to

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Speaker 1: come on my show now, and he has all for you.

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Speaker 2: Please enjoy.

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Speaker 1: This is an incredible conversation, not just about Venezuela, not

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Speaker 1: just about Rantou areas that he is an expert in

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Speaker 1: but about what it is like to have such close

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Speaker 1: relationships with such powerful people, and what it is like

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Speaker 1: to have what you think sought after by people who

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Speaker 1: make decisions that change the course of history. It's an

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Speaker 1: incredibly powerful conversation and I know you will love it.

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Speaker 2: So here it is.

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Speaker 1: We'll get into all of that, but first, here's a

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Speaker 1: word from our partner. Now, New year's resolutions sound great

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Speaker 1: on January first, but by January tenth, well, not so much.

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Speaker 2: This year.

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Speaker 1: There's one resolution though, that's actually worth keeping. Getting your

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Speaker 1: finances in order. You need to do it now. For

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Speaker 1: many people, that starts with balance, not just growth, but

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Speaker 1: We cover so much of that here every day. And

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Speaker 1: if this sounds complicated, I promise you it's not. It

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Speaker 1: starts with a simple conversation about your goals. A Noble

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Speaker 1: built around you. Not this one size fits all, So

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Speaker 1: make this a year you stop putting off your finances

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Speaker 1: and start getting them in order. Now visit Noblegoldinvestments dot

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Speaker 1: com forward slash erin. That's noble goold Investments dot com

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Speaker 1: forward slash erin. Elliot Abrams, thank you so so much

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Speaker 1: for coming on the Aaron Rollin Show.

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Speaker 2: It's such a pleasure to have you.

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Speaker 3: It's a great pleasure to be here with you.

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Speaker 1: You've had a busy couple of months. That would be

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Speaker 1: an understatement given two of your areas of expertise, Venezuela

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Speaker 1: and Iran.

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Speaker 2: Are you tired?

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Speaker 3: I am, but soon to go to Florida for a

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Speaker 3: couple of days off.

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Speaker 1: Bless What has surprised you most out of each of

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Speaker 1: the current situations we find ourselves in with those two nations,

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Speaker 1: starting with Venezuela, Were you blown away by what occurred?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I think the real mystery at Venezuela is why

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Speaker 3: the president did it. There's so much else going on, Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan,

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Speaker 3: our own economy. He didn't have to do it, and

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Speaker 3: he didn't have to do it now and I'm still

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Speaker 3: not sure I understand that decision, you know why now,

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Speaker 3: So that was a real surprise to me.

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Speaker 1: What about Iran, We've seen moments of uprising prior and

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Speaker 1: in recent times as well. We've seen periods where they've

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Speaker 1: been I mean unsettling is an understatement. Where we've seen momentum.

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Speaker 1: People say this could be the moment where the iotoler

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Speaker 1: is overthrown, and it never quite eventuates, quite eventuates.

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Speaker 2: This feels different. Did you see it getting to this stage?

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Speaker 3: Well, as you just said, they've had this has happened

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Speaker 3: periodically every five years, and here, I'd say so far.

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Speaker 3: The opposite that is, I'm a little bit surprised that

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Speaker 3: president has not yet done anything. At the moment you

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Speaker 3: and I are speaking, there was a newsflash a few

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Speaker 3: minutes ago saying that the US warship had shot down

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Speaker 3: an Iranian drone, and you know, are we on the

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Speaker 3: edge of war? I don't think that means we're on

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Speaker 3: the edge of war. It could have been an observation drone,

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Speaker 3: not an attack. And the US warship was rightly sort

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Speaker 3: of saying no, no, no, you send a drone near us,

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Speaker 3: we'll get it. So it's a pushback, But I don't

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Speaker 3: think it's an announce meant that we're going to attack,

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Speaker 3: and I think the President would rather that these negotiations succeed.

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Speaker 3: But he did say help is on the way, and

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Speaker 3: I think it's always a mistake to say something like

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Speaker 3: that if you don't intend to act, and.

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Speaker 1: You suspect that he knows that, I mean, he's fully

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Speaker 1: aware of what he has said and the pressure that

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Speaker 1: comes with that, or would he be willing to sacrifice

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Speaker 1: maybe a bit of cred for what he believes to

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Speaker 1: be a better outcome that isn't military strike. So you

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Speaker 1: know him better than I mean, I know him and

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Speaker 1: probably most of my audience.

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Speaker 3: I think he knows that it's dangerous to bluff, and

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Speaker 3: that you know, as a matter of general principle, he

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Speaker 3: knows that he won't do it. He made a mistake

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Speaker 3: in this case. He got out a bit ahead of himself.

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Speaker 3: Though we still don't know what the outcome here is

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Speaker 3: going to be. It's perfectly plausible that this negotiation will succeed,

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Speaker 3: but I think it's more plausible that it will fail.

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Speaker 3: And if it fails, he's kind of on the hook

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Speaker 3: to do something, and he's in a bit to mixed metaphors.

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Speaker 3: He's on the hook, he's in a corner. But he's

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Speaker 3: got a tough situation here because they're not so many

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Speaker 3: good obvious targets. I think most people would say, you

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Speaker 3: can't bring down the regime by air strikes. That has

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Speaker 3: to come from inside. If he does air strikes, what

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Speaker 3: is he going to attack the nuclear program? But he

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Speaker 3: said the nuclear program had been obliterated, so why do

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Speaker 3: you have to hit it again? Maybe the missile program,

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Speaker 3: Maybe missile launchers and missiles and storage. People have talked

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Speaker 3: about one other major thing that he could conceivably do,

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Speaker 3: which is a kind of blockade so that Iran cannot

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Speaker 3: export oil until they agree to do certain things. It's

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Speaker 3: a very big thing to bite off militarily. You know,

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Speaker 3: it takes a lot of military assets. Mostly their oil

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Speaker 3: goes to China. So now it's not just Iran policy,

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Speaker 3: it's China policy.

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Speaker 1: When you talk about succeeding when it comes to a deal,

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Speaker 1: and you mentioned what just occurred as we started talking.

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Speaker 1: A couple of hours ago, Steve Witkoff was meeting with

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Speaker 1: net and Yahoo and there was a bit of talk

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Speaker 1: around that regarding Israel's stance, and that is ballistic missiles

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Speaker 1: must be included in any kind of deal. But any

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Speaker 1: kind of deal, regardless of how incredible it might seem

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Speaker 1: on the surface, is going to be a horrific deal

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Speaker 1: for the people of Iran.

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Speaker 2: Any deal that.

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Speaker 1: Enables this regime to survive longer and to continue in

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Speaker 1: some form of power, and they don't do degrees of

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Speaker 1: power and around there completely in power is a bad

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Speaker 1: deal for the Iranians, isn't it. How does a US

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Speaker 1: balance that. I know it's not their job to save

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Speaker 1: the world, but as you said, President Trump said, help

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Speaker 1: is on the way, and it benefits America to not

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Speaker 1: have this regime impowered. This regime tries to kill Trump repeatedly.

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Speaker 3: Well, this is a real problem for the United States.

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Speaker 3: I think, first, what kind of deal. The Iranians have

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Speaker 3: said the only deal we're interested in might be a

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Speaker 3: nuclear deal. But if you're doing a nuclear only deal,

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Speaker 3: so nothing about missiles, nothing about support for terrorist groups

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Speaker 3: like Hamas and his below, nothing about the internal situation

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Speaker 3: the Iranian people, that's a terrible deal. And that is

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Speaker 3: exactly what Obama did in twenty fifteen, And that is

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Speaker 3: a deal that Trump has dumped on and criticized and

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Speaker 3: insulted for ten years, so I don't think he can

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Speaker 3: actually repeat that mistake. The timing if he does is

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Speaker 3: even it's just awful because to make that deal with

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Speaker 3: the regime with the Eyehola is a complete betrayal of

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Speaker 3: the Iranian people weeks, just weeks after how many ten thousand,

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Speaker 3: twenty thousand have been killed in the streets. I think

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Speaker 3: it would be personally, I think it would be unconscionable

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Speaker 3: for him to do that. And the only thing that

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Speaker 3: kind of encourages me is I think I don't think

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Speaker 3: the regime is going to agree to anything beyond some

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Speaker 3: kind of nuclear deal.

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Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham came out and I thought it was a

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Speaker 1: brilliant line and said, you can't talk like Reagan and

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Speaker 1: an act like Obama.

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Speaker 2: And it was actually, I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, for someone to say it publicly, and it felt

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Speaker 1: like he was almost it was accusatory towards Trump. Of course,

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Speaker 1: he then went online and softened it over and over

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Speaker 1: and over and this is what our president would never do,

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Speaker 1: and he's doing, you know that, as you'd expect. But

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Speaker 1: I thought it was a very strong line you have

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Speaker 1: and I'm not saying year old Elliott, But you have

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Speaker 1: a lot of experience over many administrations. What did you

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Speaker 1: make of that line? And do you think he got

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Speaker 1: that right?

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Speaker 3: Well? I think Lindsey Graham got it right, and I

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Speaker 3: think that he was a little bit out over his skis.

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Speaker 3: He knows the president, and he knows the President is

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Speaker 3: not going to like that kind of taunt. Let's call it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this may turn out fine for Lindsey Graham

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Speaker 3: in this sense. Maybe maybe the President has decided that

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Speaker 3: he's going to use military force, but because he's being

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Speaker 3: advised by so many friends not to do it and

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Speaker 3: to try negotiating, maybe he wants to just let the

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Speaker 3: negotiations go on for a week or two so that

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Speaker 3: you can say, look, I tried, we tried to start

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Speaker 3: down with them. I tried. Meanwhile, we are getting our

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Speaker 3: forces in place. On the day the President began this,

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Speaker 3: we did not have the carrier Carrier Task Force near Iran,

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Speaker 3: and even now we are moving air defense assets more

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Speaker 3: and more into the region. So from a military point

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Speaker 3: of view, it may be good to give us a

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Speaker 3: few more days, even another week, and by then the

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Speaker 3: President can say, you know, they're hopeless. I sent witkof

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Speaker 3: I sent my son in law it wouldn't agree to

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Speaker 3: any of it.

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Speaker 1: And I guess that for him enables him to justify

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Speaker 1: it as much as he can domestically as well to

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Speaker 1: an American public who may not be interested in any

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Speaker 1: military action in a still gunshoff the back of Iraq

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Speaker 1: off obviously his opposition in Parliament, but also his allies

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East, who as we know, are very

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Speaker 1: reluctant for anything to occur in this space, or some

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Speaker 1: of them are. That's an issue, isn't it the likes

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Speaker 1: of Katar and Saudi Arabia and Turkey who are clearly

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Speaker 1: very opposed to this, and see I do I with

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Speaker 1: the Iatolas regime on things that weigh in the West dined.

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Speaker 3: Yes, they've all advised against it. I think partly because

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Speaker 3: they're afraid that the Irans might, in response to an

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Speaker 3: American attack, say well, it's crazy to attack the Americans

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Speaker 3: because we'll get hit very, very, very hard. So let's

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Speaker 3: attack the Arabs across the Gulf. And they've done it before.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the largest oil site in the world is

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Speaker 3: Abtake in Saudi Arabia, and Iran did attack it once before.

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Speaker 3: I think the other thing, frankly, is that for Cutter

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Speaker 3: the Emirates Saudis, having a weak Iran that is under

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Speaker 3: heavy sanctions is not a bad thing because it depresses

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Speaker 3: the amount of oil that's on the world market, which

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Speaker 3: means they get more for their oil. If you had

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Speaker 3: an Iran that was producing and producing and getting full

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Speaker 3: access to the whole world, sanctions are lifted, oil prices

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Speaker 3: would go down. That'd be great for these those of

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Speaker 3: US who import oil, but it would be terrible for them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you've worked with different presidents, other presidents, with Bush,

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Speaker 1: with Trump during the first term. What is it like

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Speaker 1: to be in such close proximity to so much power

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Speaker 1: and to walk into oval offices and tell presidents what

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Speaker 1: you think and maybe have robust conversations because again, I say,

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Speaker 1: for us me immortals, that's just, I mean, very difficult

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Speaker 1: to imagine.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's you never quite get used to it. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I was in the George W. Bush administration working in

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Speaker 3: the White House for eight years, but every time you

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Speaker 3: go into the Oval office, you do get that sort

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Speaker 3: of sense of my god, I'm sitting here with the

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Speaker 3: President of the United States. There is one thing that

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Speaker 3: lets you off the hook a bit, and that is

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Speaker 3: you're not deciding anything. You are, in a sense, just advising.

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Speaker 3: You know my view, missed President, it is that, but

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Speaker 3: he's making the decisions. But I think it is and

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Speaker 3: you're not the only one advising. And that's the other thing.

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Speaker 3: Typically it's not a one on one conversation. There are

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Speaker 3: two or three or four or more people in the room.

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Speaker 3: But you know, depending on who the president is. I

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Speaker 3: worked for Reagan, I worked for George W. Bush, and

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Speaker 3: the atmosphere in the Oval Office was formal, cot and tie,

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Speaker 3: but relaxed. It wasn't stiff. It was conversational, and those

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Speaker 3: two presidents at least really welcomed diverse opinions. George W. Bush,

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Speaker 3: for example, never never minded it. As you said, sir,

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Speaker 3: I don't agree with that. Can I explain why he

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Speaker 3: was all ears because he was trying to make the

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Speaker 3: best decision he possibly could. But it is it is again.

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Speaker 3: I mean, at the last day of the eighth year,

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Speaker 3: I still was looking around and saying, my god, I'm

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Speaker 3: actually here. It's wonderful.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that.

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Speaker 1: I think it's I often, even as you know, I

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Speaker 1: was in Washington last week and I'm not twenty anymore

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Speaker 1: starting out, but I'm walking. I mean, I feel like

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Speaker 1: I'm starting out in the American market, which I am.

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Speaker 1: But looking at these buildings and think to even be

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Speaker 1: in close proximity feels so special. And I feel sorry

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Speaker 1: for people who don't get so excited about things that

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Speaker 1: are just amazing.

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Speaker 2: You know, those people that it's just.

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Speaker 1: They're a bit too cool, or they don't realize, you know,

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Speaker 1: the privilege that they have. I think it's an amazing

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Speaker 1: thing to be very aware of how privileged you are

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Speaker 1: in life.

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Speaker 3: I've found there are exceptions to this, but not many.

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Speaker 3: There are a lot of people who think they're going

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Speaker 3: to be very cool when they're going to the Oval

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Speaker 3: office or who say, you know, I'm going to tell

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Speaker 3: the president and they get in there and they you know,

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Speaker 3: they start looking around and the move changes.

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Speaker 2: Look, I've been guilty of that in interviews.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I'm going to push him on that, and the

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Speaker 1: second he says it, absolutely so I get it.

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Speaker 2: It can be intimidating, Elliott.

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Speaker 1: Looking forward, it's very hard to ask anyone to predict

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Speaker 1: what's going to occur, particularly in the Middle East. I

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Speaker 1: think if I asked Trump what was about to occur.

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Speaker 1: He may not even know himself quite yet. How do

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Speaker 1: you see it playing out? And what do you think

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Speaker 1: is the best thing the people of Iran and those

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Speaker 1: of us who advocate for them can do.

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Speaker 2: Is it to apply more pressure?

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Speaker 1: Is it to just let the president do his job

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Speaker 1: and trust as a lot of people are saying. We'll

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Speaker 1: get into all of that, but first, here's a word

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Speaker 2: What's the best.

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Speaker 1: Way to continue to try and help people who are

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Speaker 1: being slaughtered by terrorists essentially every day.

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Speaker 3: I think, you know, on the military side, it's going

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Speaker 3: to be a decision President Trump. But I think that

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Speaker 3: many many governments, including the US government, very often have

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Speaker 3: been remiss in not really reacting when these kinds of

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Speaker 3: slaughter takes place. That is, do we go to the

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Speaker 3: UN Human Rights Commission and demand a special session? Do

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Speaker 3: we sanction people immediately? Do we go to the Security

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Speaker 3: Council or the General Assembly to demand action? Do we

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Speaker 3: take a case to the International Court Criminal Court? Do

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Speaker 3: we show the Iranian people we are watching this, we're

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Speaker 3: aware of it. We're completely on your side. I think

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Speaker 3: there's a tendency to quiet down, you know, issue statement

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Speaker 3: and then forget about it in the day or two.

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Speaker 3: And they deserve more than that for the courage they

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Speaker 3: are showing.

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Speaker 1: What changes if say, best case scenario, this regime topples.

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Speaker 1: And I know that this is very much wishful thinking

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Speaker 1: in that there is somewhat of a smooth transition. You

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Speaker 1: get Pilavi or whoever to come in and democracy works

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Speaker 1: and it's healthy. And I know it will take time,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, and these are very hard to

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Speaker 1: work with. But I mean, what I'm trying to say

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Speaker 1: to people is even if you feel far away from this,

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Speaker 1: so you think I'm in America, why would I care

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Speaker 1: I'm in Australia, I'm in Europe. It doesn't really impact me.

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Speaker 1: I feel sorry for the people on the ground. But

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Speaker 1: when you realize the tentacles, the reach that this regime has,

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Speaker 1: the terror that it is behind, the things that it funds,

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Speaker 1: that makes the entire world unstable. What does a peaceful Iran,

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Speaker 1: a democratic Iran, or a healthy Iran look like for

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world.

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Speaker 2: Why should we aspire for it?

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Speaker 3: I think it would be the biggest change since the

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Speaker 3: collapse of the Soviet Emperor in nineteen ninety one. In

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Speaker 3: the Middle East. It would completely change Iraq and Syria

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Speaker 3: and Lebanon, and it would change I think the Israeli

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Speaker 3: Palestinian situation. It would change Yemen in the Middle Ea.

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Speaker 3: It would be transformative. It would change the world terrorism situation.

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Speaker 3: You know, they keep making these attacks all over Europe

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Speaker 3: and this isn't a matter of you know, old will

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Speaker 3: it up? And twenty years ago they continue to have

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Speaker 3: a real presence. They are the world's largest state sponsor

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Speaker 3: of terrorism and that matters to all of us around

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Speaker 3: the world. We have a fairly good record since the

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Speaker 3: Second World War of not permitting nuclear proliferation. If this

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Speaker 3: regime continues, it will continue trying to build a weapon,

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Speaker 3: and if it does, others in the region will and

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Speaker 3: that's the end of non proliferation. But a change of

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Speaker 3: regime I think would mean, as it did in Brazil

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Speaker 3: and Argentina and South Africa, that they would turn away

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Speaker 3: from trying to build nuclear weapons. So this really would

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Speaker 3: would again I think change be a larger change than

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Speaker 3: anything since the Soviets fell.

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Speaker 1: And not to mention the impact on China and the

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Speaker 1: Chinese Communist Party if one of its great allies where

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Speaker 1: we wiped out. We see the well reports of big

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Speaker 1: Chinese planes dropping things off over the past couple of weeks. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you are phenomenal. Thank you so so much for sharing

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Speaker 1: your expertise with us here. We really appreciate it and

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Speaker 1: lovely to have you on Elliott.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 3: Did you see you again? Bye?

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Speaker 1: Well there you go. Here is phenomenal, isn't he? Thank

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Speaker 1: you so so much for joining us here on the

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Speaker 1: Aaron Mullin Show. You know I love you all. Thank you,

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Speaker 1: thank you, thank you. I will see you Monday six

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Speaker 1: am ET for a brand new episode, just to give

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Speaker 1: you a little overview of what we're doing at the moment. Actually,

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Speaker 1: because a few different people are asking, we do our

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Speaker 1: Monday Tuesday Wednesday episode each week six am ET. It

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Speaker 1: drops big name guests, commentary, everything you could ever possibly

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Speaker 1: desire is there. Then we also do a bone weekend

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Speaker 1: episode with a guest. It's more just a conversation. You

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Speaker 1: love those two, they're brilliant. Then we also now appear

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Speaker 1: on the Salem News Channel. We do a weekend show

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Speaker 1: one pm ET Saturday and Sunday. So guys, if you

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Speaker 1: can never get enough, believe you me. We will continue

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Speaker 1: to provide so that one day you might, but then

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Speaker 1: you'll still want more, which is good for business.

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Speaker 2: Clearly, we love you all. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: joining us. Make sure you.

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Speaker 1: Share, follow, subscribe like whatever it is else you can do.

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Speaker 1: We love you and support our sponsors as well. They're amazing,

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Speaker 1: Noble Gold, Balance of Nature. I'm very fussy by the way.

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Speaker 1: We've had so many different people attempt to jump on

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Speaker 1: board with this, and bless them, we were very grateful,

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Speaker 1: but I am very very specific with who I will

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Speaker 1: let to come along this journey with us, because I

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Speaker 1: want you to trust me and to trust us.

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Speaker 2: They're amazing. Love you all.

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Speaker 1: Bye, don d don't just get down