WEBVTT - Another installment of Hugh’s interviews with experts on Iran 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 Hillsdale Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just google Apple 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:19.279 iTunes and Hillsdale Morning Glory at Evening Grace America's I 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:22.239 promised all day. Richard Goldberg joins us. He is with 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.599 the senior director at the Foundation for the Defense of 0:00:24.680 --> 0:00:28.480 Democracies and he was in the Trump first term at 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:31.120 the National Security Council with the Iran portfolio, and the 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:34.720 Trump second term he helped stand up the National Energy 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:37.520 Dominance Council of Secretary of Berghaman and writer. You've heard 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:40.320 here a lot. They went back to the FDD to 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:43.480 study Iran, and boy, what a timely time it is. Richard. 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:45.239 Welcome to you here at show. Great to have you, 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.120 great to be here. Thank you so much so, Richard. 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:52.080 Since President Trump appeared on the program, you know, two 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:54.840 weeks and two days ago and said he's going to 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.040 hit Iran harder and he's ever been hit before. They 0:00:57.040 --> 0:00:59.120 have ever been hit before. If they keep killing people 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:03.360 on Mark Duvitch, your colleague, I've had on Michael Duran 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:07.080 from Hudson. I've had on Ben and Ben Tellerblue, your colleague, 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:10.840 I've had on I will have on Kareem Sajyapor. I 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:15.200 think Thursday of the writty gore from Israel you, I'm 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:17.600 doing my best to get people ready for what will 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:21.480 be a very big kinetic collision if it happens. Do 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:23.320 you think it's going to happen with Iran? 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:28.320 I do think something is going to happen. I think 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:34.400 the president is a president of determination commitment. I think 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:38.360 he likely has his mind already set on some sort 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:42.920 of outcome here and has asked his senior advisors to 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:46.440 make sure his options are set and the force posture 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:49.640 matches the options that are most aligned with what he 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:53.200 wants to achieve. And I think he knows that as 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:56.520 more and more of this information comes out, the intelligence 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.240 that gets leaked, as some of the Internet peaks back 0:01:59.280 --> 0:02:01.320 on in Iran and his phone calls are being made, 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:05.200 as pictures and videos come out, he and the rest 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:06.960 of the world sees that a red line that he 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.320 drew was obliterated by this regime. He is aware of 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:14.400 that the promises of no executions apparently have continued in 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:15.440 secret as well. 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:16.799 And when you start seeing a. 0:02:16.760 --> 0:02:20.600 Death toll in the tens upon tens of thousands, with 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:24.520 more still in secret locations being held, with more executions 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.680 potentially on the way, that alone, of course obliterates the 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:31.000 Red Line. But he also sees a regime that's teetering, 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:35.120 he sees historic opportunity, and as he told you, he's 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:39.200 already in many ways sealed his fate in history as 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:42.760 somebody like Ronald Reagan who changes the world, whether it's 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:46.760 last June with the B two bombers Operation Midnight Hammer, 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:50.480 whether it's the most recent operation against Maduro, the Abraham 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:54.560 Cords before that. But you know what, Ronald Reagan brought 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:56.960 down the Soviet Union, a major threat to the United States, 0:02:56.960 --> 0:03:01.800 transformed the entire world scene. This president could still bring 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:05.240 down one of those major threats that is world changing, 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:08.320 world history changing, if he contributes to the collapse of 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:09.640 the Islamic Republic. 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:12.680 Of Iran, and in so doing, if that happens, having 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:16.760 cut off the People's Republic of China from Venezuela and oil, 0:03:17.240 --> 0:03:20.960 he may succeed in cutting off Iran from setting hot 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:23.239 oil to China. They't have to buy their oil in 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:25.760 the world market. It's not that they won't get oil, 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.200 it's just that they will pay a lot more for it. Richard, 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:33.160 does that not serve our strategic interests as well? 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:37.560 I mean, I think if you, for some reason don't 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:40.880 care at all about thirty five thousand people being mass 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:44.120 murdered in forty eight hours and executions going on, you 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:47.240 just say, not our issue, not our national interest. And 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:49.440 for some reason you didn't even care about the fact 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:52.080 that Iran, as the leading state sponsor of terrorism in 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:55.480 the world, continues to plot war against the United States, 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:57.760 has tried to assassinate the President of the United States 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:00.280 while he was out of office, will most certainly to 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:03.280 assassinate him again if they remain in power after he 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.880 leaves office, and all of the other bad things they 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.440 do to tie us down in the region, all the 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:12.000 gold Star families around the country who have grieving I 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.200 have lost loved ones, whether in Iraq, of Beirut, colbar 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:18.960 towers over many years, in Israel, Gaza, all these different 0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:21.720 places because of the Islamic Republic of Iran. If for 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:24.000 some reason you didn't see that as a major national 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:28.080 security thread to us. But you subscribe to great power competition, 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:31.120 you say it's all about China, that's our greatest existential 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.480 threat of the century. Then let me tell you about 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:39.040 why the President is executing the most brilliant grand strategy 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.440 in history right now for the United States and taking 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:46.680 apart the axis of enablers for the top acxis of 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:50.880 aggressors against the United States. As China starts seeing all 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:54.839 of its chess pieces falling off the board, as Russia 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:58.440 starts seeing its chess pieces falling off the board, started 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:02.960 with ASAD collapse in Syria, and then Iran being able 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:06.320 to do nothing as the President obliterates its nuclear program, 0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:08.880 Maduro being taken out in the middle of the night 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:14.039 in fifteen minutes by delta force. China is seeing all 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:17.480 of its Belt and Road initiatives, all of its investments, 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:21.440 all of its key supply lines being threatened, potentially all 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:24.440 the aggressors that are the middle powers that can threaten 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:28.040 the United States and distract us potentially being taken off 0:05:28.240 --> 0:05:32.479 the game board. And remember, for China heavily dependent on 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:36.960 energy imports, one of their key weaknesses. Fifty percent of 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:40.680 their energy imports come through the Strait of Hormuz. That's 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:43.440 obviously Saudi and the rest of the Gulf plus Iran. 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:46.120 But if Iran is no longer a threat there, if 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:50.080 you're able to constrain that oil supply, and you've taken 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:53.200 off the ability for Maduro to supply a few hundred 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.839 thousand barrels per day going up from Venezuela as well, 0:05:57.320 --> 0:05:59.600 they are left with the potential of having to rely 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:02.599 on GUSU, the United States of America, from whom they 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:05.800 could be buying more oil, and other partners where we 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:08.800 would have strong relations, and obviously the US Navy the 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:12.040 ability to interdict in time of conflict. That's bad grand 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:14.920 strategy for China, that's very good grand strategy for US. 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:19.240 So, Richard Goldberg, I believe that if the President fails 0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:22.680 to strike it Iran, it will dent the deterrence that 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:26.560 he is so masterfully rebuilt in the first year following 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:30.320 the disastrous years of the Locust under Joe Biden. However, 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:34.120 I also don't believe that's going to happen. I think 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:36.720 what he was doing with me, and then he followed 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:39.520 with Sean Hannity, and he followed with Tony Dakoppel, and 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:41.520 he did it on true social was trying to prevent 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:45.280 violent It did not work ever since then, since the massacre, 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:47.680 And you use the term thirty five thousand, I've seen 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:51.920 now today as highest forty thousand. That's almost unimaginable. But 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:54.839 the president is a visual person. Do you think he 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:58.440 has a good flow of information from inside Iran as 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:01.320 to exactly how why spread the massacre was? 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:06.520 I think that picture is increasing and the flow of 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:10.720 information is obviously accelerating. I do actually think that it's 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:13.400 possible he did not have a good flow of information 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:17.480 that first weekend when the massacres were taking place, most 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.440 mainstream media were downplaying the reports that I and others 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:24.320 were hearing from inside of Iran. The leading opposition news source, 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:28.440 Iran International, was reporting throughout the weekend five and twelve thousand. 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:30.720 We were hearing a lot of the stories that are 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:33.560 now being confirmed through the weekend. But you would hear 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:35.320 from a lot of sources in government that's just not 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.480 matching what we're hearing so far, both here in the 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.440 United States, in Great Britain, and elsewhere where. We would 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:45.720 rely on the intelligence community to validate rumors coming out 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:48.720 of Iran. There's no way to deny what's happening now. 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.080 Millions of people came out in the streets. There was 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.480 mass murder. The blood is still stained across Tehran and 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:58.640 other major cities. People are still trying to identify their 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.560 loved ones who are being held hostage, even as dead 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:06.320 bodies throughout Iran. Right now, the fear of a continued 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:09.240 crackdown if anybody else comes out into the streets. But 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:12.800 also understanding that this is a regime that teeters. Why 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:15.040 did people come out into the streets. There was an 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:20.360 economic crisis that Donald Trump helped facilitate and accelerate. There 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:23.280 has been the snapback of UN sanctions, and so there's 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:25.800 an understanding in the market that the old Iron nuclear 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:29.120 deal is never coming back. Banks were teetering on the 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:32.480 edge of collapse. One did collapse. There's a water crisis 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:36.520 because of the mismanagement of this maniacal, corrupt regime. There 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:39.320 is a power energy crisis where the grid is experience 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:43.040 blackouts throughout Iran. So people hate this regime. They already 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.480 hate them for what they do to the people repression wise, 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:47.920 as you can see, they hate them because their standard 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.079 of living continues to go down into the gutter. This 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:55.080 has spread from upper class to middle class to lower class, religious, 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:58.600 secular all across Iran. And if millions of people were 0:08:58.640 --> 0:09:01.520 willing to take to the streets but right now are 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:05.319 deterred by machine guns and IERGC forces out there, if 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:09.240 those IRGC forces somehow are dispersed have to run away themselves, 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:11.800 stands to reason millions of people would come back into 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:14.959 the streets if they see help on the way, as 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:19.439 the President promised. And frankly, we long term whether or 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:23.080 not this collapses tomorrow. Remember nineteen seventy eight to nineteen 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:25.680 seventy nine took a year before the shot had to 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:29.280 flee Iran. Even if this is a long term situation 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:32.200 and this regime does not immediately collapse or the Supreme 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.920 Leader has taken out and you don't have a full 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:39.319 change in regime, the RGC steps in a different successor 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:42.120 from the MULLA step in. If you're able to use 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:45.960 this opportunity to continue to degrade and dismantle a direct 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:49.360 threat to the United States, a direct tool of the 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:53.839 CCP in China and putin in Moscow by degrading their 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:58.320 missile program, their navy, their drone program and their command 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:01.000 and control. You do a great service to the United States. 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:03.040 You enforce a red line and show the enemies of 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:06.400 America this president continues to mean business. And maybe yes, 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:09.200 you give the opportunity for millions of Iranians to come 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:12.200 back out and take this country back for Iran, which 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:14.800 will be a game changer for US national security. 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.480 Don't go anywhere. I'm coming right back with Richard Goldberg, 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:21.000 Senior director at the Foundation for the Defense of DEMOCRACIESFDD 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:23.720 dot org, and you can follow him at Richard Goldberg 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.240 on AX. I'll make sure I get the right. Is 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:27.840 there a middle initial in there, Richard or is it 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:28.800 just Richard Goldberg? 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:33.240 Just at rich underscore Goldberg. The underscore catches people something 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:36.839 rich Underscore Goldberg. It's one of the people I tell 0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:39.640 you you should follow routinely online because there are a 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:41.880 whole bunch of people with opinions about Iran, but there 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.920 aren't that many with actual firsthand knowledge of having worked 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.559 the portfolio at the NFC Richard has. 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:49.520 Don't go anywhre. I'll be right back with rich Goldberg 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:52.079 from the FDD. After the mess to State tuned that 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:58.559 they can heal it show, Welcome back to America. I'm 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:00.880 to heal it. With Richard Goldberg, senior fellow at the 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:04.400 Foundation for the Defensive Democracies for years and Trump won 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:08.200 had the portfolio over Iran sanctions, trying to rebuild some 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:11.520 kind of pressure on Iran after Team Obama gave the 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:14.960 world away to them, including pallets of cash. He came 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:17.400 back in term two at the beginning of it to 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:19.920 stand up the Energy Dominance Council and to try and 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:23.160 repair the damage done by four years of Biden appeasement. 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:26.760 Hypothetical entirely, Richard, before we go back to the reality 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:32.040 of strike lists and priorities. Had Barack Obama not gone 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:36.199 belly up on Iran in his first term and then 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:39.520 pursued the JCPO in his second term, would this regime 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:41.880 have already fallen? Did Obama save it? 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:44.640 Oh? 0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:47.200 He saved it several times. I mean two thousand and nine, 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:49.920 the last time we remember, well, the first time I 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:53.840 remember a mass uprising starting in Iran after what people 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.920 understood to be a stolen election. They don't have elections 0:11:56.960 --> 0:12:00.480 in Iran, they have selections in Iran, and add this 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:04.040 sort of mass uprising into Ihran suburbs taking place. It 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:06.920 was an upper middle class revolt and they put that 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.959 down with force. And Barack Obama sent the love letters 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.160 behind people's back to the Supreme Leader, saying, I want 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:15.440 to have a good relationship. By the way, I've seen 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:17.360 those letters when I was working in the White House. 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:21.120 This was unimaginable. He abandoned the people in the street 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:24.160 because he wanted a nuclear deal, because he internalized this 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:27.960 anti American ideology that we were actually to blame for 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.560 all of our problems with Iran. He believed in the 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:33.360 false narrative of a coup that the CIA was behind 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.480 that the Iranian regime has put out for years. He 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:38.880 believed that you need to have a balance of power 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.240 in the region. Let Iran have a little more power 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.640 and that would offset the Saudi power and the Israeli power, 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:47.720 and then we would have this great equilibrium and kumbai 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:49.360 Yah would happen, and we just needed to get to 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:52.480 a nuclear deal because hey, you know, they have grievances 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:54.520 and we should understand that. 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:57.680 Richard, it's not very relevable, but I want you follow 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:01.679 Has anything been heard from the Metternik of MS now 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:05.080 Ben Rhoades. Has President Obama said anything about the massacre 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:07.760 of tens of thousands of people. Have the people who 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.160 kept the eye tolls in power, have they had the 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:13.160 decency to come forward and condemn the regime that they 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:13.880 parlayed with. 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:17.960 No, because they're out there working the media right now 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:21.040 to say it's over too late, can't do anything, too 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.560 dangerous to act. Don't know what would come next, could 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:27.600 be worse if the Supreme Leader were to go. That's 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:30.200 who's behind a lot of those news stories and headlines 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:33.120 that you see out there. It's Team Obama Ben Rhodes 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:35.959 out there still trying to hope for a day where 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:40.920 they get back to appeasement as the policy with this regime. However, 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:44.319 I will say that for many people who are let's 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:49.680 call them normal, more mainstream, clearly don't agree with them 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.360 on a lot of policy issues, but they went along 0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.080 with that because they're Democrats. They believe they this is 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.480 what we have to do. This is Barack Obama's foreign policy. 0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:01.320 So I'll get get on the train looking at you, say, 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.520 forty thousand. They're seeing it the numbers right now, they're 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:07.200 seeing the pictures, the videos. Those types of people on 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:11.880 the left and in the center cannot justify the jcpoaim 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:15.920 or cannot justify an appeasement policy anymore. Are looking at 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:18.760 this idea of having a negotiation with this regime with 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.280 everything going on right now, saying, are you kidding me? 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:23.720 This regime has to end up in the ash heap 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:27.000 of history, the sooner the better. So, yes, there are 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:29.920 idealogues out there, and we remember some of them who 0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:32.440 served in the Biden administration too, like Rob Malley, the 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:35.240 Special envoy for Iran. It was kicked out for being 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:38.520 a little too close to the Iranians perhaps, and many others. 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:41.760 They might be rooting against the Iranian people right now. 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.880 They might be trying to, in sinister ways, influence the 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:47.880 President not to act. But I think the vast majority 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:51.120 of Americans see what's happening here, see a red line declared, 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.760 See what this regime is capable of against its own people. 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:57.040 Know that it's capable of building more and more missiles 0:14:57.040 --> 0:15:00.280 to use against us and our allies. He knows that 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.920 this is a historic time to take advantage of for 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:03.840 our national security. 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:06.640 So, Richard, there are lots of different definitions of what 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:11.080 we're aiming for. Some people want regime negotiations, and if 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:14.520 we are to believe. One of those includes Special Envoy WITCOP, 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:17.760 but he's been involved in some headfakes of extraordinary proportions. 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.720 There's regime coercion, which is what's going on in Venezuela. 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:25.240 There's regime evolution, which is what we hope goes on 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.440 long term in Venezuela, to free and fair elections and 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:33.760 democracy return. Then there's regime punishment and just simply a 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:37.320 punitive strike saying what you have done here is beyond 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:39.800 the bounds of what the West will tolerate. That's what 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:43.360 President Trump did in term one visa via SAD when 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:47.080 he used chemical weapons. And then there's regime change, which 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.480 involves Iraq in two thousand and three, Afghanistan in two 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:54.880 thousand and one. I'm in favor of at least regime punishment, 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:58.400 in other words, just a simple punitive strike, and we 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:01.120 can talk about target lists. Where are you in that option, 0:16:01.240 --> 0:16:03.360 Richard Goldberg? What would you like to see happen as 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:04.520 a strategic goal. 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:09.880 Yeah, I am at the very least regime punishment, but 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:13.040 I would like to see the facilitation of regime collapse 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.520 in transition. That does not mean boots on the ground, 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.000 It does not mean an occupation, does not mean the 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:22.160 United States literally going to Tehran to do things. Though, 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:26.880 if somehow the President and General Kine and Director Ratcliffe 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:28.480 can pull a rabbit out of the hat and there's 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:32.320 some incredible operation like nobody imagined in Caracas that just 0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:34.840 suddenly happens, I would be impressed with that. 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:35.680 I would not believe. 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.440 I would not be predicting that it would seem high 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:40.560 risk and dangerous. 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:41.520 But who knows. 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:45.480 This president and this team around him have proven everybody 0:16:45.560 --> 0:16:50.200 else that we can't really expect the unexpected with their planning. 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:53.440 At the moment. However, given the normal set of facts 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.320 in front of us, the parameters that we would imagine 0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.280 what we would be willing to do with this president 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:01.440 should be going to do and what he should not 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.920 be willing to do. Given the risks to US personnel, 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:07.960 I think it is quite appropriate A to make sure 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:10.240 they are punished for going across the red line. But 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:14.720 B take this moment, seize this moment to continue to squeeze, 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:19.000 to degrade, to dismantle, and the weaker and weaker and 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:21.880 weaker they get, the stronger and stronger the people get. 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:24.320 And yes, you will see some sort of transition. At 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:28.280 some point, this regime cannot continue if banks are collapsing 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:32.439 because the president enforces his thread of twenty five percent 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:37.240 tariffs against all neighboring countries of Iran, and the cash 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:41.280 flow starts moving, stops moving from daily trade. And you 0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:44.520 actually use either by naval forces like you saw in Venezuela, 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:49.360 or kinetic action or cyber action, some sort of prevention 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:52.520 of the oil flowing out of carg Island, you will 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:55.920 force an immediate liquidity crisis. You will accelerate what is 0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:58.960 already a liquidity crisis. More banks will fail, There will 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:04.240 be a massive inability to pay the IRGC payroll. That 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:07.520 would be be very you know, uncertain for what happens 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:11.240 next to that regime alone, just internally with fracturing, if 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:14.360 you were to take out kinetically command and control, if 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:19.080 you were disrupt communications at the same time, then to see, Richard. 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:21.520 Does the American people and the rest of the world 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:23.639 have to see what it is that the United States 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:26.560 does as a reaction to the massacre, because if it doesn't, 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:28.879 I don't know that the red line isn't erased anyway. 0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:30.040 I think they have to see it. 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:33.440 Well, of course they have to see it. You mean 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:36.520 you mean, could there just be a cyber uh event? 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:39.880 And that's the no. There's no way, there's no way 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.040 that that is sufficient at dis point, based on what 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:45.560 the president has has promised, what he has suggested, and 0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:48.600 what you know, if you're sheigen Peing, if you're Vladimir 0:18:48.640 --> 0:18:51.440 Putin and you're expecting if you were to default now, 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:55.000 moving a carrier strike group there, moving all these squadrons, 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:56.880 building up a force posture, and then just saying, hey, 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:58.920 I had a cyber event and we'll call it a day. 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:00.960 I think that would be laughed out of the room. 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:04.119 The president certainly knows that, and I think, you know, 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:07.840 we should have a little bit of a level setting here. 0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:11.200 It's not like she and Putin don't believe the president 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:14.000 is willing to use force. He has proven it certainly 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:16.480 over the last year and in his first term he 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:20.400 has just taken a dictator out of Caracas. I need 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.320 to have to know he's serious. But you start stopping 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:25.240 forcing your red lines, that can change quickly. 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:27.640 I'll be right back with Richard Goldberg of the Foundation 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:29.600 for the Defensive Democracy, and he's for going to talk 0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:32.439 about risk to American personnel in the region, and then 0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:34.240 we're going to talk about target loos in our last 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:38.160 two segments on Today is Iran in Focus Hours Day tuned. 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:46.439 I'm Vio, Hugh, Welcome back America. I'm here, Hugh at 0:19:46.440 --> 0:19:48.760 the biggest story in the world remains Iran and whether 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:51.280 or not the United States strikes and if Israel joins 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:54.159 in with it. Richard Goldberger, I want to talk about 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:57.040 target sets now. I've asked all of the experts, and 0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:59.159 I'll ask Kareem when he comes on to finish my 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:02.680 week of end experts on Iran. Why don't we hit 0:20:02.760 --> 0:20:05.720 carg Island because it and the two other oil terminals 0:20:05.760 --> 0:20:09.120 are the only hard currency generators that this regime has 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:11.840 to pay its terrorists with. Why don't we do that? 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:17.120 This is the number one source of revenue for the regime. 0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:20.320 If you stop the flow of oil, then you are 0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:23.320 on an egg timer for how long the regime can survive. 0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:25.800 I will add that I also think we underestimate the 0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:30.040 importance of border trade, just in its very near circle 0:20:30.200 --> 0:20:33.639 of influence and neighbors. If you actually stop some of 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:37.920 that daily trade and the currency transfers and the cash access, 0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:41.800 you will also accelerate liquidity crises inside the banking system. 0:20:41.840 --> 0:20:45.800 But yes, we have long had this option, and obviously 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:49.480 on sanctions alone, we saw this happen in Venezuela as well. 0:20:49.920 --> 0:20:53.560 You have an immediate impact in the market, normal actors, 0:20:53.600 --> 0:20:56.719 normal corporations, and by the way, even state owned enterprises 0:20:56.720 --> 0:21:00.679 of China shy away from completing a trans because they 0:21:00.760 --> 0:21:03.479 don't want to suffer the blow of a cutoff from 0:21:03.480 --> 0:21:07.200 the US financial system, which is the punishment under US sanctions. 0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:09.879 And so for the Chinese at least, they resort to 0:21:09.960 --> 0:21:14.000 illicit activity. They set up these so called teapot refineries. 0:21:14.400 --> 0:21:18.600 These are unofficial, sort of supposedly disconnected from state owned enterprises. 0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:21.000 They have a ghost tanker fleet, just like what you 0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:22.760 saw in Venezuela. A lot of those, by the way, 0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:25.359 were the Iranian ghost tanker fleet. When you saw the 0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:28.000 US seizing them, they seize them with US sanctions attached 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:30.400 from the Revolutionary Guard Corps. So you have all these 0:21:30.440 --> 0:21:34.320