WEBVTT - The Big Weekend Pod 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.760 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.280 Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to 0:00:06.320 --> 0:00:08.800 take advantage of the many free online courses there, and 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:11.119 of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogue all of 0:00:11.119 --> 0:00:14.560 them at hue for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple, 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:19.120 iTunes and Hillsdale Mornin, Glory and evening Grace America. Welcome 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:22.759 to the Big Weekend pod Our. Regular guest are here, Eli Lake, 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:26.880 Matt Continetti, John Ellis, Ben Dominic, and we're talking about 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.600 what we've been talking about for two months, the war 0:00:29.640 --> 0:00:33.360 with Iran, which enters a new phase perhaps over this weekend. 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:37.640 Headline in the Times of Israel Israel said bracing for 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:41.400 iron fighting to resume soon as Trump briefed on military options. 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:44.680 I'll be talking with most of my guests, but especially Elila, 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:50.159 about the crazy upside down analysis of the war. Iran's 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:52.919 gotten crushed and they continue to get crushed, and they 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:56.800 put out press releases instead of offensive action because they 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:59.040 had no offensive action. They have no way to move forward. 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.360 And whether or not the United States goes back to 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:05.720 kinetic operations or just squeezes them to death. I don't 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:07.760 know what is the preferred way to go. The world 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:12.120 is hurting because of higher oil prices, but Iran is 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:16.400 crumbling before our eyes. We have won. We are wrapping up. 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.080 It may take a few months, but it's over. I 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:23.160 just want everyone to know that. But before we get there, 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.280 we're going to start by talking about none other than 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:30.480 Graham Platner, the anti Semitic, Nazi tattoo wearing nutter who 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:34.360 has got the Democratic nomination locked up in Maine. I 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:38.120 had a friend rate me last night and say they'd 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:42.199 sent one thousand dollars to Susancollins dot com to stop 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:45.679 the jewater. I don't think that person's alone. I think 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.720 Susan Collins is going to benefit from everyone in the country, 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:52.720 even Democrats who've just had it with crazy people getting 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:56.240 in the politics and saying crazy things about Jews in Israel. 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:58.520 And that will be the focus of a little bit 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:02.600 of today's show, primarily though Iran the war after three months, 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:05.559 what comes next? All come to you on the Big 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:09.280 Weekend Pod. Stay tuned Morning, Lore Rating and Grace America. 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:11.639 Welcome to the Friday edition of the hu Us Show. 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:13.840 Whether you're watching on the Salem New Channel, we'll say 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:16.280 on the Salem Radio Network and one of our wonderful 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:19.840 radio affiliates across the country, Welcome as usual on Friday, 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.200 I begin with John Ellis, founder and editor in chief 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:26.000 of News Items, your morning newsletter, which is the first 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:28.880 thing I read every morning. And John's hit me a 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:31.440 cheat sheet of stories he'd like to cover. And I 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:35.200 covered Graham Platner for most of yesterday. But I want 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.280 your take on it, John, because you know Maine a 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:40.040 lot better than I do. I've spent four or five 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:43.440 summers there and a few vacations, but I don't know 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:48.320 it that well. But I do know extremism and unbalanced minds, 0:02:48.919 --> 0:02:51.880 and Graham Platner is an extremist with an unbalanced mind. 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:57.560 Can he possibly beat Susan Collins? Yeah? I think he can. 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:02.519 If we go back to two thousand nineteen, gallop ass 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:07.560 democratic primary voters, Democratic presidential primary voters whether they preferred 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:10.640 to candidate who could defeat President Trump in the fall 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.400 or whether they want someone whose views most you know, 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:19.000 closely resembled their own. And they said, by margin of 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:22.400 two to one, we want somebody who can defeat President Trump. 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:27.600 Fast forward to twenty twenty six, Janet Mills the incumbent governor. 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:31.200 She's term limited, she's running for the Democratic president Senate 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:34.640 nomination in Maine, and she makes the argument, I'm the 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.480 one with the best chance to defeat Susan Collins in 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:40.200 the fall, and in so doing, I will send a 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:43.640 message to President Trump, which is what you Democratic primary 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:48.120 voters want me to do. So you know that she 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:51.640 made the electability argument, and to sort of cap it off, 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:55.240 she ran a fairly extensive media campaign beginning in March 0:03:55.760 --> 0:04:00.960 that pointed out all of Graham Plattner's flaws and so 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:04.960 you would think, given her you know, tenure as governor, 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:10.640 a popular Democratic figure, and a highly flawed challenger, that 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:14.600 she would coast a victory, when in fact, during the 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:20.600 media blitz, Graham Plattner's numbers went up. He was when 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:24.120 the media campaign began about ten points ahead. By the 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:28.520 time the media campaign ended, he was thirty points ahead. 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.560 So the mood seems to be if you're old and 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:35.440 in the way, get out of the way. We don't care, 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:40.240 you know, we just wanted we just want to, you know, 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:41.200 shake things up. 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:46.320 And John after after Afterday's program, a friend of mine 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:48.839 Joey's friend of mine said, I just sent a thousand 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:51.680 dollars to Susancollins dot com to stop the jew hater. 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:55.280 And when you reduce it to everything, Graham Plattner is 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:59.359 an anti semi anything not and so he might be 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:02.919 able to win the Democratic base polling. But Main's a 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:06.440 nice place, it's a gracious place. It's about as purple 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:09.000 a state as you can get. I know it's got 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:12.600 its crunchy elements to it. I don't see that state 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:15.719 not only again, grand total of twenty months in the 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:20.480 state and ten vacations, what would it be what would 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:22.640 happen to Maine to make it go off the left 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:23.880 side of the moon. 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:27.400 I don't think it's the left right thing. I think 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:32.679 it's get anyone who's in power out. And I'm not saying, 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:34.760 by the way, that Susan Collins is going to lose. 0:05:34.800 --> 0:05:39.919 I mean, in twenty twenty, President Bush, I mean President 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:43.839 Trump lost the state of Maine by nine points and 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:47.480 Susan Collins won her reelection by ten. 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:49.800 That's a nineteen point split. 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.160 So there's no doubt that Susan Collins is a terrific 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.400 vote get her. There's no doubt she knows the state 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:59.119 inside out. The question is whether the mood is such 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:02.800 that if you're in power, people want you out of power, 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:05.640 and that, you know, that's a question that I think 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:07.239 will be answered in the Senate race. 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:10.160 I think you're right. I also think that whatever Janet 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:14.119 Mills did for the primary, Susan Collins and the super 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:16.640 Pacts are going to do times one thousand for the general. 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:21.960 Let's move to your second story. President Trump's extravagance, grandiosity, 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:25.320 called esthetic, let's call it whatever you want, step on 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:29.640 the ballroom, the arc de triump arch, et cetera. You're right, 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:32.320 it's starting to earn him with voters. I have not 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:35.599 seen that polling. Where do you find that evidence? Because 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:37.440 everyone's I know that. 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:43.560 I am told by polsters that I trust that. While 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:46.719 it didn't, I was started to ask posters that I know, 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:48.839 you know, why is the Trump. 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:52.200 What do you call it? The Trump aesthetic? 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:58.240 Aesthetic not registered more with voters, and they said it 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:01.279 didn't in twenty twenty five, But it's beginning to now 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:06.280 all of the talk about the ballroom at the time 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:09.240 that we're at war and you know, times are tough, 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:14.240 apparently has raised this quote salience end quote of that 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.160 issue in a way that it was not raised in 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:18.239 twenty twenty five. 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:21.560 That'll be interesting to see if that's I think that's true, 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:26.720 If democratic Olama to the ballroom or the archititrium arch. 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:28.760 I just don't want them to build the arch while 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.560 I'm still living here, because that will make going over 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:35.240 the moorial bridge, which I did twice today in Nightmare. Next, 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:40.160 this is Saudi Arabia story, the LIV golf tournament. Now 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:43.120 I have not followed this closely, the whole LIV controversy, 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:46.440 but the Saudis are pulling the rugout, and you suggested 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:49.720 to me this is just the first bubble coming to 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:53.760 the top of the water of GCC golf, a coordinating 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:58.000 council money being withdrawn from extravagance. Is that a good 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:00.520 way to put it? Yeah, I think. 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:03.920 I mean, I don't think anybody cares that the Sods 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:06.560 have pulled the plug on Live. I don't think anybody 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:11.280 really cared about the live golf tour. But the war, 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:17.360 you know, they'll turn down. The downturn in revenues from 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:24.000 oil and from tourism have caused the GCC states to 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:28.960 pull back, and the question because there's such you know, 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:35.080 large investors in the American innovation economy, if you will, 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:39.880 particularly in the AI data server compute space, that if 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:45.720 they pull back, that could have significant impact on the 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:50.360 buildout of the infrastructure for artificial intelligence. There is I 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:53.679 think I don't think anybody disagrees that there is a 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:56.920 sort of reckoning coming, a shakeout coming in the AI 0:08:57.240 --> 0:09:03.080 infrastructure compute space. If the SuDS and the Emirates and 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:07.920 stuff start, you know, pulling back their investment in infrastructure 0:09:07.960 --> 0:09:12.680 and compute, then the shakeout will come to us faster 0:09:12.880 --> 0:09:14.040 than it otherwise would. 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:17.640 And that's that's a big deal. My frequent guest and friend, 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:20.480 David Monson, I'm not his client, he's not my client, 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:22.920 but I do turn them for economic advice. There is 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:27.360 a AI shakeout coming. This will accelerate it. There will 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:29.280 be winners, but there will be a lot of losers. 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:33.920 You better you're in Las Vegas when you're investing in AI. Finally, John, 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:36.280 let's talk about this is the most important story. I 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:39.320 want people to hear it here. First, al Qaeda is 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:44.080 taking over a large swath of the Sahl, including Mali, 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:47.280 and they beat the Russians to do so this is 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:51.320 this is worse than Afghanistan. Really they got more assets there. 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:54.640 Explain Well, it's. 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:59.320 Yeah, I mean the Mali is resource rich, as they say, 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:03.160 and the Russians have been making a you know, fairly 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:08.839 significant move to ingratiate themselves with the junta if you will, 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:13.560 in Mali and sending mercenaries to protect the hunt and 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:17.800 its leadership, and you know, basically trying to make it 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:18.680 a client state. 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:21.920 Uh and al Qaeda, a form of. 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:25.719 Al Qaeda, an offshoot of al Qaeda, has is at 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.320 the capitol gates, so to speak. I mean, it's a 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:36.440 little bit like Afghanistan during the Biden administration. So if 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:40.319 if in fact Mali falls, it will be an enormous 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:47.280 defeat for mister Putin and mister Putin's inability to win 0:10:47.960 --> 0:10:51.240 the Ukraine war to be you know, it's a they 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:55.240 have a huge military advantage and they're not gaining ground. 0:10:55.800 --> 0:11:00.239 Put those two together, and I think mister Putin's tenure 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:02.320 is you know, at risk. 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:03.640 I really do. I think. 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:08.000 I think the combination of Mali and Ukraine could be 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:09.600 his Afghanistan. 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.439 The tyrant in the Kremlin cannot be wearing his crown 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:17.000 very easily right now, so uneasily. You also know that 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.920 to me that the May Day Parade is going to 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:23.000 be sort of a third of a parade, not really 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:27.240 the May Day parade that they usually have in Russia. Yeah, 0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:29.120 well we always see it on TV. Right you have 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:29.720 all these. 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:33.280 Missiles and tanks and troops and they all march through, 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:37.560 you know, by the Kremlin, and it's a huge thing 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.800 that's dating back to you know, the Soviet Union days, 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:44.920 great show of force and strength and so on and 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:49.839 so forth. And because the Ukraine Ukraine military has been 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:54.640 able to penetrate so deeply into Russia that they've scaled. 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:55.080 The whole thing down. 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:59.240 No missiles, no tanks, and very few soldiers. It's a 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:04.600 sparse Victory Day parade. And I think telling that it 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.560 has to be that way, we ever talent, you know, 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:09.319 it shouldn't. 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.800 It shouldn't have to be that way. Putin cannot be 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:16.400 happy right now. John Ellis, as always, thank you following 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:19.160 at Ellis Items. If you want all your news in 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:23.920 one place in one newsletter every morning, subscribe to news Items. 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:26.480 Google news items in John Ellis and you'll get there, 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:29.960 or news items dot subseat dot com. It really is 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.600 your one stop shopping center for all the news that 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:36.560 matters at six am in the morning. It covers the world. 0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:39.600 Thank you, John, be right back with Elila. Stay tuned. 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.840 I'm joined now by Eli Lake, who is a correspondent 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:46.840 for The Free Press, the host of the Breaking History podcast. Eli, 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.040 let me tell you. I could spend the entire segment 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:54.040 talking about your new Breaking History on the misinformation campaign 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:57.679 in Great Britain. I found that that's fascinating where I 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:00.600 could talk to you about Graham Platner. But instead I 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:02.840 got to focus on a story in the Atlantic and 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:07.679 the general world around it. Yesterday, Nancy Yusef and Jonathan 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:11.440 Lemire published in the Atlantic the Iran Wars ramifications have 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:15.480 only just begun subtitle US goals have not been met, 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.679 but the war will cause long term disruption. And they 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:21.319 quote a friend of the radio program, Richard Haas, and 0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:24.840 he's a smart guy, saying, even if Iran does not 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:28.480 have explicit control of this trait, there is now always 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:32.200 an implicit measure of control. Because they have shut it once, 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.040 now they know they can do so again. Now, Eli, 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.920 that's just dumb, and Richard's not dumb. North Korea didn't 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:43.120 invade South Korea a second time. I got all sorts 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:47.440 of you know, Egypt in Syria never invaded Israel a 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:51.680 second time after the Mkipor war. It doesn't happen that 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:53.960 way just because they do it. They've been crushed, they've 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:57.800 been smashed. So how do you explain the defeatism or 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:02.040 Iran's won a secret victory that permeates the left and 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:03.240 people like Richard Oz. 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:08.320 It's hard to understand because I keep going back to 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:12.520 the reason why we're doing it, which is that the 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:17.439 war is about making sure Iran doesn't have a conventional 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:22.160 shield so that it can race for a nuclear weapon, a. 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:26.440 Full stop yep. So everything else in between. 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:31.920 Yes, it's important that Iran doesn't charge tolls on the 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:34.720 straight up her moves and doesn't control it. I think 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.680 that that is eminently militarily possible. My senses that we'll 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:41.920 be seeing more on this very soon. But the big 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:44.760 thing here is to make sure a bunch of fanatics 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:48.920 in Tehran do not have nuclear weapons. In that respect, 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:50.080 mission accomplished. 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:55.000 Agree, But everywhere I turn I see narratives like this. 0:14:55.240 --> 0:15:00.720 They're coming from the New York Times, the Atlantic center right, 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:04.560 people like Richard Hassu may have a twinge of TDS, 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:08.960 and it's just it's defying logic. Now, Mat Connetti has 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:10.840 a peach in the Wall Street Journal today, we have 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.680 to force the straight of hormones. People can argue about tactics, 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:18.000 but there's no arguing we crushed the Iranian military. They 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:20.880 don't have any offensive power. They just have terrorism power. 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:26.920 Yeah, they do have a few missiles left and those 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:30.880 and they have some drones and they You're right, it 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:31.400 is that they can. 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:31.800 They can. 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.360 They can be vandals, they can be like terrorists, but 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:38.040 they do not have the strategic to terrance that a 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:42.320 nuclear weapon or being a nuclear breakoup power would give them. 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:48.480 And meanwhile, their economy is in free fall. And that is, 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.720 you know, not because of the sanctions entirely, it's because 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:56.000 of their own corruption. And I'm still not counting out 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:58.320 the Iranian people. I know, I might be the last one. 0:15:58.400 --> 0:15:58.600 I know. 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:00.760 It's not sort I think, I think in some ways 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:06.560 what happened here. Another explanation is that we've never seen 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:09.840 a war begin like this, other than what the Israelis 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:13.600 kind of did to Hezbollah at one point, to the Emmy. 0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:16.800 But the ability without any ground troops to start a 0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:22.080 war taking out the political and military leadership, like literally 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:24.600 within a few minutes, like in the in the first move. 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:27.680 That's never been done before. And I think that people 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:31.280 cannot be blamed for thinking, wow, we've never seen that before, 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:33.760 or maybe the Iranian regime should fall. It didn't fall. 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.320 It was resilient. But all this, like I told you, 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:38.360 so they would Nobody knew that they were going to 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:41.080 necessarily survive, that they would be able to restore their 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:44.560 command and control. But that was not the war aim. 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.640 You know, it's two months, so that's the key thing. Yeah, 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:51.200 it's like two months. We had the Battle of Castarine 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:55.720 Pass was our first major battle with Rommel got our 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.320 rear ends kicked all over North Africa that told, and 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.760 we haven't lost anything here. They just haven't collapsed. But 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:05.560 just because we lost the Battle of Castering Passed, it 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:09.040 meanwharire I'll lose North Africa, Italy, Normandy or the bat 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.919 It's nuts and it the only I can come up 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:16.240 with is like when the Democratic establishment turned against Vietnam 0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:19.400 as soon as Jack Kennedy was dead and they had 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.080 sufficient INTERVOWSS A little bit after that, Yeah, and then 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:23.600 I mean, it. 0:17:23.640 --> 0:17:25.600 Was like sixty six to sixty seven is when they 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:27.720 start turning on it for real, when Bobby Kennedy turns 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:28.000 on him. 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:31.879 Yeah. Yeah, And so this time it accelerated to two months. 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:34.080 But I don't think the American public are well served 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:38.040 by Doom saying we're crushing it, and I think their 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.200 economy is going to collapse. I'm fairly confident that this 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:44.359 will end with a neutered regime. I don't know what 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:45.480 it looks like, but they. 0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.439 Have to neuterd I think I wouldn't give the current crowd. 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:52.600 I think eventually in the short ter, medium term there through. 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:54.160 But we also kind of. 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:56.920 Know q why there is so much of a rooting 0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:59.040 interest against it and to try to kind of create 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:01.680 a phony conventional wisdom of the war was a failure. 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.440 Because if the war was a success, what does that 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:08.280 tell us about the signature foreign policy initiative of a 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:13.080 Barack Obama and the Democrats, The JCPOA, the nuclear deal, but. 0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:15.919 That there is a way, there. 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:20.760 Is a way to contain Iran's nuclear program without giving 0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:23.840 them gazillions of dollars in pallets of cash, which they did. 0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:28.280 They used to supercharge their ring of fire around Israel 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:32.720 and their their terrorist proxies. So I think this is 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.040 a little bit of kind of you know, getting out 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:39.960 in front of what they understand to be historically will 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.399 be an embarrassing story. Many people built their careers and 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:47.080 reputations on the JCPOA, and this is the we're in 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.560 the process right now. At least I think of showing 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.040 that the JCPOA was a mistake and there was another 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:53.840 way there was a military solution. 0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:57.000 Not only a mistake a disaster, because it allowed the 0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:59.560 funding of has At, allowed the funding of moss which 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:02.879 led it to and it didn't have to happen. Maximum 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:05.880 pressure could have done it. That there is no legacy 0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:09.600 of the Obama years his Obamacare failed. Now that JCPOA 0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:13.080 is revealed as a monumental mistake. It was a phantasm 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:17.120 for the whole time. Tom Cotton was right. And if 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:21.400 Trump wins, this is a world historical event. I don't 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:23.680 know how anyone's going to be able to deny it. Right, 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:25.520 it's a new. 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:27.800 Middle East if this war goes as I think it 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:30.919 will eventually, it's a new Middle East. Israel has proven 0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:33.480 that it is a now a regional superpower in every sense, 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:35.840 it doesn't have the aircraft carriers, but it has the 0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:39.440 ability to send its you know, air force over one 0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:42.800 thousand miles away and take out the leadership of another regime. 0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:47.040 That's what it did. That speaks louder than anything else. 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:50.480 Everybody knows it, and you're already kind of seeing the 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:54.040 alignments forming in the aftermath of ua E getting out 0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:56.919 of OPEC and all that. These are the ramifications of 0:19:56.960 --> 0:20:01.240 a huge hinge of history moment. So again I think 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:03.920 it's not over until the regime falls. But I also 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:05.879 think the regime probably is going to fall. But in 0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:09.080 terms of this war, the bottom line is is that 0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:12.840 the military has been neutered, the nuclear program has been 0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:14.440 turned into rubble. 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:17.200 Shuttered and shuddered, and I think people are going to 0:20:17.240 --> 0:20:19.720 be embarrassed by what they write and say to the contrary, 0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:23.240 and not for very It won't take very long. However, 0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:25.280 I do want to tell everyone the new Breaking History 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:29.800 is fabulous. It makes me worry about the Five Eyes program, 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:31.840 and I hope you think about that. I don't know 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:35.280 that we can trust the nsay of Great Britain when 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.639 I read listening to Breaking History, Eli Lake, thank you 0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:44.760 Stay tuned in America. Welcome back in America. I'm Heugh Hewittt, 0:20:44.960 --> 0:20:48.080 joined now by Matt Continetti. Matt is at the American 0:20:48.200 --> 0:20:51.840 Enterprise Institute, where he oversees domestic policy studies. He's also 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:54.120 a calumnist for the Wall Street Journal and their Free 0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:58.720 Expressions Vertical. His very excellent column today, Time to Force 0:20:58.760 --> 0:21:02.400 Open the Strait of Horror Moved, begins quite simply. Sometime soon, 0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:04.679 President Trump will open the strait of war moves. He 0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:08.520 has no other choice. Matt, Welcome. I agree with you, 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:11.520 but I think he has time on his side. He 0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:13.720 also sent a letter to Congress today to sort of 0:21:13.800 --> 0:21:17.399 sidestep the War Powers Act, which he doesn't think is constitutional. 0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:20.320 Neither do I. But when does he have to open 0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:21.480 the strait of war moves? 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:27.200 Well, Hugh, I think he needs to do it before June, 0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:31.480 to be honest. I mean, this war has been extremely 0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:36.560 effective in defanging the Iranian regime, in knocking out the 0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:41.480 Iranian leadership, command and control, in reducing the Iranian nuclear 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:46.440 program to rubble. But it's exacted an economic cost on 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.359 the world and in the United States and the rising 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:53.639 gasoline prices, and that in turn has affected President Trump's 0:21:53.640 --> 0:21:57.399 political standing, and so I think the clearest way to 0:21:57.520 --> 0:22:00.840 change the momentum or the lack of momentum in this conflict, 0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:03.840 the standstill we seem to be in, is to prove 0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:06.399 to the world that the United States will not allow 0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:09.840 Iran to hold a veto over the Strait of Hormuz, 0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:12.920 and that might require us to go back into combat 0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:16.119 operations for a short period of time so that we 0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:19.360 can prepare the ground for a naval escort operation. We've 0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:21.840 done it before in the Tanker War. We can do 0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:25.800 it again. And once we deny Iran this leverage that 0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:29.560 they've held over us, they will be truly, truly broken. 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:32.720 Now I agree with all of that, and I think 0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:35.240 we're going to do the kinetic option as well as 0:22:35.320 --> 0:22:39.359 continue the blockade because they're staggering and they're broke. But 0:22:39.440 --> 0:22:42.920 I want to contrast what you wrote, which was optimistic 0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:45.919 about the result, with a quote by Richard Haas a 0:22:45.920 --> 0:22:49.840 smart Guy in an Atlantic article yesterday. Richard is quoted 0:22:49.880 --> 0:22:52.840 as saying, even if Iran does not have explicit control, 0:22:53.240 --> 0:22:57.040 there's now always an implicit measure of control. Because they 0:22:57.080 --> 0:22:58.840 have shut it once, now they know they can do 0:22:58.920 --> 0:23:02.800 it again. That's just silly. North Korea didn't invade South 0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:05.840 Korea a second time. Sadam didn't go back into kuwaita 0:23:05.920 --> 0:23:08.760 second time. Egypt didn't invade across as so as in 0:23:08.960 --> 0:23:12.800 Israel a second time. When you get smacked and crushed, 0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:16.920