WEBVTT - The Big Weekend Pod 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 Hillsdale Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listener to the Hilldale dialogues, all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:18.760 iTunes and Hilldale Warning Laura and Eating Grace America. Welcome 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:21.880 to the Big Weekend Pod. We've got regulars, Our regulars. 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:26.079 John Ella is from news item, Eli Lake, calumnist, contributing 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:28.920 editor at The Free Press and commentary. He's the host 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:31.960 of the Breaking History podcast Ben Dominis as Long as 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:35.160 he Is, and special guest Aaron McClain. Aaron is here 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:37.839 to talk us through the School of War podcast and 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:40.040 everything he's learned in the last three weeks about where 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:42.680 we are right now visa be the war with Iran? 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.080 Are we gonna escalate, I'm gonna hold pat I'm gonna 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:49.159 let the blockade simply squeeze the Iranian regime out of 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:52.560 all life. What's Aaron McClain think is happening, What's he 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:56.080 think ought to happen? That's all coming up on today's 0:00:56.080 --> 0:01:00.240 Big Weekend Podcast. So stay tuned Lauri and Evening Grays. Yeah, 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:04.160 give you a big weekend show I had. We always 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:07.680 began our weekend coverage with John Ellis, founder and editor 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:10.199 in chief of News Items, because we like to cover 0:01:10.240 --> 0:01:13.560 a few stories that may have skipped your attention span 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.880 and your radar. John, good Friday to you. Let's start 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:19.480 in Montana. Because when I read your notes from me, 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:22.360 it might surprise you. But I don't read the MIT 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:26.880 Technology Review on a regular basis. This sounds wild. Tell 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:27.679 us about it. 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:29.440 Well. 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:33.200 As of this week, any biotech company with an experimental 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:37.240 drug has a clear path to selling it to consumers. 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:41.880 This is a so called right to try rule. And 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:44.479 so if you live in mont or you live anywhere, 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:48.200 you can go to Montana and perhaps you read about 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:54.920 some special treatment that's being developed by Eli Lilly or 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:59.000 Murk or something, and although it's only at stage one 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:05.080 of clinical trials, you can get that by essentially invoking 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:09.560 the right to try. You sign a write off you 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:13.639 you know, a disclaimer for going any for going any 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:17.440 chance of litigation, and you try whatever drug it might be. 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:19.760 It might be a wellness drug, it might be for 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:25.440 a rare drug that's only had ten people tested. It's 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:29.520 a big thing, and I think it will become a 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:31.880 bigger thing. I think you'll see this more and more 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:35.519 and more states, So keep an eye out on Right 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:36.600 to Try. 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:40.400 Now John Ellis, Mexico has made a big business out 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:42.840 of this for years. I've known people who have gone 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:45.880 to Mexico to try everything from the idiotic Laya trill 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:51.280 to third generation drugs supervised by physicians of great credentials. 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:54.600 Doesn't the FDA have a role in this? I mean? 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:58.560 Or is it like dope? Dope is illegal on the 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:03.360 federal controlled substance but every state that wants to legalize it. 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:06.880 Is that where we're headed? I think that's the latter. Yes, 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:08.960 I do, and I think that's where we're headed. I 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:14.840 think because so much work is being done that points 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:22.919 to breakthrough therapies and break through pharmaceutical breakthroughs. You know, 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:27.400 the demand for it is simply going to overwhelm opposition 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:31.560 to it, and states like Montana, which are notoriously libertarian, 0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:34.760 can make a good deal of tax money out of it. 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:38.680 So we'll see. But I think it's like gambling. You know, 0:03:38.800 --> 0:03:42.400 gambling started small and it's now it's everywhere. 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:46.880 The libertarian streak in America is deep. Let's move to 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:51.240 point number two about Democratic voters and whether they're likely 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:53.880 to vote for the person who can be Trump or 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:56.920 the mainstream Republican or whether they're going to go left. 0:03:57.240 --> 0:03:59.680 What's your data show you? 0:03:59.760 --> 0:03:59.920 Well? 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:03.920 In twenty nineteen, Gallup took a poll and they said, 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:06.960 for whom we vote in the Democratic primaries in twenty 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:10.320 twenty somebody whose views aligned with yours or somebody who 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:13.880 can beat Trump. And the result was two to one 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:18.000 beat Trump, and thus Joe Biden was the nominee, even 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.719 though you know he had been defeated in primary and 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:24.599 caucus in the early going. This time, the Washington Post 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:28.160 and AP excuse me, the Washington Post and IPSOS have 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:31.159 taken a poll and they've asked, are you open to 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:35.920 voting for a Democratic socialist candidate for president in twenty 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:40.120 twenty eight And the answer to that question from Democratic 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:44.920 primary voters was seventy five percent Yes. That is a 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:49.599 I understand that two questions are not exactly parallel, but 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.160 that's an enormous change. 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:56.159 And in the last two weeks, mister l Say, doctor 0:04:56.279 --> 0:05:00.159 Lsayed in Michigan has surge passed Hailey Stevens in the 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:03.719 most recent polls by double digit It's astonishing to me 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:06.240 that lsay Ed can win in Michigan even in a 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:08.599 Democratic primary. Are you surprised by that? 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:12.200 I've been very surprised. 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:15.400 I mean, I wasn't surprised by Mundanami, because you know, 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:18.520 it's New York City and right, you know, fourteen percent 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:21.440 of the electorate votes, and so yes, it was going 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:25.080 to go left. But the fact that you know, the 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.200 Sayatt is doing well in Michigan and Hong is doing 0:05:28.240 --> 0:05:33.560 well in Wisconsin, and these these congressional primaries that have 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:40.440 produced Democratic socialist victories points to a real problem for 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:44.160 the Democratic Party because fifty five percent of the electorate 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:49.320 generally won't consider a socialist candidate for presidents. 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.719 So that's bad math for the Democrat. 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:55.080 And it's also Peggy Plan again in Minnesota is a 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:55.760 hard left. 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:56.640 Yeah. 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:58.880 I like to say socialists in their mouth, Marxists in 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:02.760 their mind, and communists heart. Troy Jackson in Maine, who 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:06.200 replaced the kicked out Graham Plattner, he just as wildly 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:10.240 left I think Tall Rico in Texas is, but he's 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.520 polling better than I thought as well. Tell us about Texas. 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:18.119 Well, Texas, you know, as a good barometer of whether 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:21.200 there's going to be a blue wave, or whether there's 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:23.479 going to be a mini blue wave, or whether there's 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:25.640 going to be you know, no blue wave. 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:26.800 And the blue. 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:30.479 Wave would point to a Tall Rico victory in the 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:35.000 Senate race and a very close scubinatorial race with Governor 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.160 Abbot probably pulling it out. So the most recent polling 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:42.520 shows Tell Rico head by five percentage points. The new 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:45.640 Fox News poll shows him up by three percentage points. 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:51.280 Given the difficulty of polling, you know, statistically, it's probably 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:53.880 a tie or with the slightest edge at this point 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:56.200 to Tall Rico. But the thing that really interested me 0:06:56.960 --> 0:07:01.279 was the gubinatorial race, where Abbot and the Democratic challenger 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:05.880 are tied statistically. And you know, if you looked at 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:08.080 Texas and you just looked at the map and said, 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:10.640 what is the good what did the gubernatorial races look like? 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:13.440 You would say, well, Texas, you know that'll be our 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:18.160 that's safe. Apparently not, according to the Fox News poll. 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:21.920 So the big new thing for me, John Allis, and 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:23.680 I've seen a little bit of this in news items 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:27.080 every day, is volatility. Some of these races just change 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:31.320 in two weeks time. Have you do you recall anything 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:35.880 as volatile as twenty twenty six? Uh? 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:42.240 Well, I think twenty twenty two was surprising in that 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:45.720 two and a half weeks out the Republicans were headed 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:49.640 to a red wave, if you will, and it didn't materialize. 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:51.000 That was surprising. 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:55.480 I don't think you know in Iowa, Ohio the race 0:07:55.480 --> 0:08:01.680 that I look at, or Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, and Alaska. 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:03.240 I'm really interested in Alaska. 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:07.360 But if you just look at Iowa and Ohio, the 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.520 Democrats are a little bit ahead in both uh, in 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.600 both races, and they have been since the beginning of 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:17.440 the year. So that points to somewhere between a wave 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:21.760 and a big wave. But that's before the Republicans have really, 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.360 you know, campaigned as hard as they can campaign and 0:08:25.440 --> 0:08:27.480 spend as much money as they can spend. 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:29.520 And they have an arsenal of money that I wish 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:33.000 we had matched in our Interceptors munitions file. All right, 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.040 let's finish with Annie Jacobson's book, which you tell me 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:39.760 is about bio warfare, and I haven't read this. Is 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:41.000 it going to keep me up at night? 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:42.720 Yeah? 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:44.760 You don't want to read it, it'll you know, you'll 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:48.240 jump out the window. So I heard your readers, I 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:51.120 heard your listeners not to read it. But there was 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:55.360 a book published years ago by Richard Preston called Demon 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:57.520 in the Freezer, which was sort of the best book 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:01.679 of at the time, about by a warfare, and it 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:06.360 was a terrifying read. And Jacobson, who wrote a very 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:10.000 good book about nuclear war which was published I think 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:14.520 two or three years ago and was equally terrifying, has 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:19.960 now published this book Biological War, which is the most 0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:23.240 terrifying thing you'll ever read. So I urge your listeners 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:24.160 not to buy the book. 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:30.600 Well, does she imagine a widely distributed capability to produce 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:33.920 these agents? My brother is a PhD toxicologist. He've been 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:36.640 telling me for years, don't worry about nukes, worry about 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:39.800 the fact that people can do cookup bugs in their basement. 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:40.920 Is that where she's going. 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:43.080 Well, the big thing. 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:47.040 Is, obviously, the change that's taken place is the advance 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:51.320 of artificial intelligence. To you know, we're fairly close now 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:55.400 to artificial superintelligence. So if you have that tool, and 0:09:55.480 --> 0:10:01.360 you have some basic knowledge of how germs were, you 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:06.000 can genetically modify those terms into a weapon. And given 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:10.000 that open models are all around the world, and given 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:15.240 that artificial superintelligence models will be inevitably in the possession 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:20.439 of places like North Korea, it's a terrifying prospect and 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:26.520 one that I think you have to make massive preparations. 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:31.680 For well warned any Jacobson biological war. John Ellis, editor 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:35.480 and cheape of News Items. Thank you, John. People should 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:38.720 be reading news items every day. You can subscribe it, substack, 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:41.880 just Google news Items, John Ellis, you'll go there. Let 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:44.080 me remind everyone it's the last dam I'm asking you 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:46.560 to support Food for the Poor, the last day that 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:50.360 we're having our handout and asking with our sponsor Food 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:53.960 for the Poor, that you remember the children of Central America, 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:58.400 the Caribbean, Northern South America that depend upon Food for 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:00.839 the Poor to eat every day. You can call in 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:04.040 a contribution at eight five five three five nine, forty 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:07.440 six seventy three. It's tax deductible. It's the slow season, 0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:10.200 but it doesn't mean they're less hungry. They need people 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:13.400 like you. With eighty dollars, For example, we'll feed two 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:16.600 children for an entire year. You can call eight five 0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:20.520 five three five nine forty six, seventy three, eighty five, 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:23.760 five three five nine forty six seventy three. Or go 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.520 to my website q Hewett. At the very top there 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:31.400 is a banner give food, and I really everyone at 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.760 Salem joins everyone at Food for the Poor in thanking 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:37.439 you for thinking of others in this summer season. I'll 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:38.160 be right back. 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:47.720 That go. Well, I think we just want to win. 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:49.079 You know, we just want to win. 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:50.040 We're doing very well. 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:53.600 We're trying to be nice as nice as you can 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:57.080 be in you know, a situation like that. But you 0:11:57.120 --> 0:12:00.760 know they're they're being decimated. They have no navy, they 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:04.839 have no air force, they have no anti aircraft. Does 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:06.960 it mean they don't have any capability? They have some 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.480 Madrid little We just. 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:09.880 Want to win. 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:13.600 We don't want to have them as very simple, they 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:16.040 cannot have a nuclear weapon. 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:20.000 Welcome back America, President Trump. Day Camp David, I'm joined 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:23.280 by Eli Lake from the Free Press. He's also those 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.920 of breaking history. We just want to win, Eli, What 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:28.440 does that mean to you? 0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:33.280 Well, on the one hand, you can kind of claim 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:36.640 victory because I don't think that Iran is anywhere. I mean, 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:41.000 I would put it like this, thirteen fourteen months ago, 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:48.320 Iran was almost to break out nuclear power, and now 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:52.640 it's nuclear program, which is you know, they have investigating 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:58.000 in for decades, had incredible costs diplomatically and also obviously financially, 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:01.839 and everything else is pretty much in ruins. I mean, 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.640 there is Pickaxe Mountain, but I tend to think that 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:07.760 it's it's nothing compared to what they had. It's unclear 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:10.920 whether they could really start up again. So he's saved 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:14.720 the world in terms of Iran is no longer going 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.240 to be a breakout nuclear power. What it is now 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:22.920 is a desperate regime that has figured out that right 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:30.320 now the mass between missile defense and missile offense favors them. 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.160 So they have a dwindling supply of ballistic missiles and 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:36.000 they can do quite a bit of damage. And they're 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:37.720 kind of doing quite a bit of damage not just 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:40.560 to our bases, but to the oil refineries of the 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:44.280 Gulf and our allies desalmination plans and you know the rest. 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:47.280 And it has also has a kind of de facto 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.520 control of the Strait of Hormuse. I think these are 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:57.440 temporary situations, and you know, and and there are things 0:13:57.440 --> 0:13:59.200 that we can do to try to mitigate the straight 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:02.040 of hermus like going back to the freedom of navigation 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:06.920 and military escorts trying to find that route, reassuring allies, 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:10.280 although it doesn't take much because this latest round of 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.400 tit for tat you saw that not just Saudi's getting hit, 0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:18.520 but the saudis striking back. And then we have to 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:20.440 kind of play a smart game here. And I think 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:24.200 one thing that error that I would identify. I mean, 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.560 there's obviously the error of not having enough missile defense 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:30.680 systems and not maybe preparing for the straight up our moves. 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.760 But the big one is we don't need a nuclear 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:36.720 agreement right now with Iran. We don't want the people 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.560 who would sign the nuclear agreement to be in power, 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:43.080 and I don't think we need them. I mean, why 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:44.840 are we arguing, why do we want them to sign 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.640 something saying we'll never enricher raning for fifteen years? A 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:49.520 we don't believe them, and B they don't have the 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.840 capability right now and if they tried to rebuild it, 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:54.760 Israel and the United States has already proven that we 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.400 can take it away fairly quickly. I think what we 0:14:57.440 --> 0:14:59.240 need to do is to figure out the long, hard 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.240 work of trying to open the strait of horn moves. 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:04.680 I think the President's done an admirable job in calming 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:06.800 the oil market, so it hasn't been the kind of 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:09.680 disaster that a lot of experts predicted it might be. 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:12.600 So that's how I would I would approach it. At 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:15.560 this point. It's not a clean victory. Clean victory would 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:21.040 be regime change. But you know, let's not it's not 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:24.080 nothing that they don't have much of a nuclear program anymore. 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.240 It's a lot. But what I think the President means 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:30.640 when he says we'd like to win, he'd like capitulation 0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:34.040 of the IERGC to the reality of the power dynamic, 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.160 and that can come one of two ways. Admiral Cooper, 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:39.240 according to Wall Street Journal, has a two week plan 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:43.960 to destroy every asset the IERGC has, including their construction companies, 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:49.040 their shipping company, just impoverish them for generations. And then 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:52.280 there's the keep the blockade on and try and keep 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:55.560 the ships moving. But I just don't understand why we're 0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:58.280 talking to them. So Option A is fine. Option BE 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:01.760 as fine. Military vegetables can advise on that. Why would 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:03.320 we talk to them at this point? 0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.240 Well, I think my theory of it is is that 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:12.200 we talk to them in order to calm. 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:13.480 The oil markets. 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:17.000 So you know, if if if you know, every time 0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:20.920 there has been an announcement that talks are beginning or 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:25.240 something like that, you know, you notice that the price 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:28.040 of oil goes down, and that's really the main thing 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:32.479 that Trump is looking at, particularly before the midterms. 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:33.120 You know. 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.680 But I also think that, you know, I would agree 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:41.480 with your next guest, Darren McLain that it's a really 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:44.280 bad thing to have the president that you know, we 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:46.480 are giving up on the freedom of navigation for now, 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.320 But I think it's a temporary situation, which is the 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:53.160 straight up. Her news will be a depreciating asset for 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:56.160 the Iranians themselves as the rest of the world figures 0:16:56.160 --> 0:17:01.280 out alternative roots. Which it that's not you know, it's 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:04.280 not great. But in the end, you know, Hugh, in 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:06.040 the end, we got to get back to what Trump 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.320 was saying in the beginning of January and the end 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:10.040 of December. I mean, this is a regime that has 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.320 to go. Ultimately, it's going to be for the Iranian people. 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:14.399 There are a lot of things we can do to 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:16.080 help the Iranian people, and it's not going to be 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.040 right away, and we can't predict exactly when, but that's 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:21.359 the ultimate goal. I don't want to deal and you know, 0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:24.120 you know, I don't trust the the Mola's one bid. 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:26.520 And the reason, by the way, we probably haven't done 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:28.880 the Brad Cooper plan is that they still have enough 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:31.359 ballistic missiles to cause quite a bit of damage. And 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:34.639 until we can you know, find the interceptors that we 0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:38.080 would need to defend against that, then that's a major 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.200 risk and it's not worth probably taking the interceptors out 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:44.080 of the Pacific taking. You know, we need those just 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.720 for deterrence in many ways against China when it comes 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.800 to the Straight of Taiwan. So we're stuck right now, 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:54.359 and I it's not ideal. But again, if I was Trump, 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:56.679 I would be emphasizing the damage done to the nuclear 0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:59.960 program unless he has an insormation about like Pickax Mountain 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:00.440 or something. 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.160 Yeah, let me switch to a bigger subject. I think 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:06.600 Anthony Fauci ties into the Iran war because we listened 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:10.040 to experts on everything. We listened to experts on the 0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:14.720 military situation, on interceptors, on oil as opposed to facts 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:19.439 of market prices. Has Fauci destroyed expertise. I mean, does 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:22.960 it destroy the Woodrow Wilson project that there's a group 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:24.800 of people over here who know how to run thing? 0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:26.800 Have we done away with that? Now? 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:31.560 Well, I wouldn't put it all on Fauci, but he's 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:35.080 a big part of it. And a lot of it 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:40.320 I think was that he often believed that he could 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:43.240 be the arbiter of you know, he couldn't trust the 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:47.680 American people with sort of uncertainties like, hey, I don't 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:49.639 know what the we don't know, experts don't know what 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:52.320 the origin of coronavirus is, yet we can't really rule 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:55.679 it out. Instead, it became it's a conspiracy theory to 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:57.640 say that it results it from a lab leak. That's 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.400 and and you know, as a result, now I think 0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:04.119 Senator Tom Cotton, you know, looks pressient of course, but 0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:06.880 at the time he was pilloried by and But it's 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:09.680 not just Fauci, It's the New York Times, I'm sorry 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:13.520 to say, it's the Washington Post, It's CNN, it's the 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:17.960 it's the mediators, uh, the old elite media. They have 0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:22.560 had they they when it wasn't just COVID, it was Russia, Gate. 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:24.960 It was a series of things. It was the laptop 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:27.399 that belonged to Hunter Biden and the fact that no, 0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:30.719 you know, and that particular scandal, even though there are 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:32.879 corruption scandals on the other side right now. But the 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.520 point is is that there are a series of things 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.840 that the people, the expert class, if you will, was 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:42.640 entrusted to get it straight and to at least when 0:19:42.640 --> 0:19:46.800 they got it wrong, take responsibility and punish the malefactors 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:50.000 that didn't happen. The New York Times hasn't returned their 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:53.480 Pulitzer prize that they got for Russigate reporting. So that's 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:55.959 when you don't When you have institutions that can't self 0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:59.639 correct that way, that's when you really run into trouble. 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:03.360 And right now our politics is broken because there's no 0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:07.479 reason why the Democrats shouldn't look at the facts that 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:11.760 we have right now and say, Fauci told us things 0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:13.600 that were not true. He said he was stirring about 0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:18.320 things when it was uncertainty, and we can't stand for that. Instead, they're, 0:20:18.440 --> 0:20:21.359 you know, they're they're lining up behind him and you know, 0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:23.959 trying to say that, you know, man, Paul's the new 0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:24.720 Joe McCarthy. 0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:27.960 Yeah, credibility will not be returning to the left or 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:32.080 legacy media until Candor precides it. Elili. Follow him on 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:35.520 Exit Eli Lake and listen to the Breaking History podcast. 0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:36.200 Thank you, Elike. 0:20:45.600 --> 0:20:48.280 Welcome back in America. I'm here to a special guest 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.000 for this weekend because it could be a very very 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.800 kinetic weekend over this guys of Iran and possibly Yemen. 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:57.760 Aaron B. McLain is the host of the School of 0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:01.399 War podcasts, which should be on your like and subscribe, 0:21:01.440 --> 0:21:04.440 download it listen every episode to School of War. He's 0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:07.760 also a national security correspondent for the CBS Evening News 0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:12.119 and a marine. Aaron, welcome. I've been eating up the 0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:14.040 School of War and I wanted to ask you to 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:17.240 join us for the benefit of civilians like me. And 0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:19.480 I want to put up a couple of maps for 0:21:19.520 --> 0:21:23.320 you to kind of explain people. I keep looking at 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:27.280 the Middle East and where the straight over mows is, 0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:31.000 where the band al Mandeb Strait is in the red seat. 0:21:31.400 --> 0:21:34.240 This is all very close. How hard can it be 0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:38.000 to dominate this space for a superpart? Why is it 0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:38.840 taking so long? 0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:42.280 Hey Hugh, thank you so much for having me. I 0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:42.840 love your show. 0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:44.440 I love the music on your show, by the way, 0:21:44.480 --> 0:21:46.480 and I love your guests. I was listening with great 0:21:46.480 --> 0:21:48.800 interest to Elia, like my free press colleague just before 0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:53.399 ask to your question, how hard is it to dominate? Well, look, 0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:56.800 the standard that has to be met right is for 0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:00.680 commercial shipping to feel safe enough to go through these 0:22:00.760 --> 0:22:04.040 choke points that are threatened by organizations like the IRGC 0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:06.879 for the Strait of Hormuz or the HOHO Thi's for 0:22:06.920 --> 0:22:09.480 the Red Sea in order for us to get the 0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:11.679 amount of oil and other energy resources through that we 0:22:11.720 --> 0:22:15.679 need to support the global economy. And so unfortunately, the 0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:18.080 standard for Iran and the houthis is not that they 0:22:18.119 --> 0:22:21.080 stop all traffic going to the strait. The standards they 0:22:21.080 --> 0:22:24.080 get just enough shots through here and there that they 0:22:24.160 --> 0:22:28.359 generate unease amongst commercial shippers and make it less likely 0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:29.280