1 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: I'm Josh Hammer, and this is the Josh Hammer Show, 2 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: So welcome back, Hobefall had a great week. I am 3 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 1: personally replenish and recharge from the Passover holiday just in 4 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: time for Master's Weekend, one of the greatest weekends of 5 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:20,639 Speaker 1: the year for US sports fan A little bit more 6 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: on that towards the end of today's show. Also, is 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,479 Speaker 1: the Republican Party trying to sell you out when it 8 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: comes to a horrific, outrageous George W. Bush style mass 9 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: amnesty bill. We have the analysis I'm Ria Salazar's horrific, 10 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: horrific legislation, the so called did they asks a little 11 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 1: bit later on the show as well. Eli Lake of 12 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: the Free Press will join us a little bit later 13 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: in the show as well to assess what is the 14 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: topic of today's opening monologue, which is, of course, the 15 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 1: cease fire in Iran. So just as I was powering 16 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: down on Tuesday evening ready to go off line for 17 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: the final two days of the Passover holiday, literally just 18 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: maybe twenty three minutes before powering down my phone, we 19 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: got this news that President Trump had announced this two 20 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: week tentative conditional ceasefire. Now this two week ceasefire with 21 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: the Republic of Iran was conditioned on Iran opening the 22 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: straight of horror moose. There's a lot to be said 23 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: on that, and number one thing to be said is 24 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: that that has thus far not actually really happened. 25 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 2: Trump has increasingly been vocal about that. 26 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: Actually, he took to truth Social just yesterday on a 27 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: Thursday to say as much, to say that Iran is 28 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: not upholding their end of the bargain. How do we 29 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: know that, Well, because we actually have cameras and we 30 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: actually have metrics, we're able to track this. 31 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: So, for instance, over the course. 32 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: Of just the first couple days of this ceasefire, there 33 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: were one or two vessels a day on average that 34 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: we're able to go through the straight or horror moose. 35 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: That's in contrast to the roughly one hundred and fifty 36 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: or more vessels on a given day. We're talking here 37 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: about commercial vessels, oil tankers, things like that that were 38 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: happening prior to the beginning of the war on February 39 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: twenty eighth of twenty twenty six. So the straight objectively 40 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: is not open. Moreover, the Mollahs or whoever is still 41 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: frankly in charge these days, in the Republic of Iram 42 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 1: is now threatening to extort the very few ships that 43 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: do go through. They're talking about taking multi million dollar 44 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: potentially bounties just to allow the vessels to go through. 45 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: They're actually seemingly in a bit of a stick the 46 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 1: knife in and twisted kind of thing. When it comes 47 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: to Jara Christer and Steve Wikoff, they're now making fun 48 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: of them, saying that we will only accept payment and 49 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: cryptocurrency there. So the Iranians are basically just messing with us. 50 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: That's essentially what they're doing. And in fact JD Van's 51 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: the vice president who has been dispatched to Pakistan to Islamabad. 52 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: By the way, What a coup for Pakistan. I mean, 53 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: Pakistan is a it's a second world country at best, 54 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: maybe a third world country there. Pakistan infamously was where 55 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: Osam bin Laden was being housed there in Abadabad when 56 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 1: the United States sent in Sealed Team six to go 57 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: ahead and take out the man who perportrayed at nine 58 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: to eleven there. What a coup for Pakistan to be 59 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: hosting this summit, or at least this anticipated summit this 60 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: weekend between the United States and Iran. When it comes 61 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: to trying to see whether there actually is a deal 62 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: to be had. Trump has been talking a lot about 63 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 1: Iran's proposed ten point plan in theory, and it's always 64 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 1: in theory with the moles Iran. This two week cease 65 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 1: fires is supposed to be a means towards a ten 66 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: point proposal. And again, the number one problem you're zooming 67 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 1: out of about the number one problem when it comes 68 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: to Iran is that they are led by some of 69 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: the most deceitful lying people on the face of the earth. 70 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: Sharia law radical Islamism commands these people at times, commands 71 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: them permits at best, commands and worse to lie to 72 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: deceive gullible Westerners, as to say, Christians and Jews, as 73 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: well to deceive Christians and Americans, Europeans, the West more generally, 74 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 1: in so far as you can lie to them to 75 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: achieve your greater goal. And we've seen this with radical 76 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: Muslims going back at decades and decades, and a lot 77 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: of this happens at a non state level when it 78 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: comes to Al Qaeda, ISIS and all the various alphabet 79 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: soup of jihadist groups. At a state level, Iran is 80 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: the number one institutional organ that does this on a day. 81 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: In debiz it has been the number one reason why 82 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: you cannot make a deal with these guys, because you 83 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: do not trust them. Nonetheless, Donald Trump agreed to this 84 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 1: two week ceasefire. My personal take on this so called 85 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: ceasefire is essentially as follows. I believe that Donald Trump 86 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: did this to try to calm jittery markets. That is 87 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 1: what I believe Donald Trump was thinking. Trump is, if 88 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: nothing else, a businessman. He is someone who has made 89 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: oodles of money in real estate deals, being a general 90 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: tycoon and everything from commercial real estate to residential real 91 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 1: estate to caseeos and so forth. 92 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: There. 93 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: He's been an avid follower of the markets for decades 94 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: and decades, going back to his twenties and thirties in 95 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: New York City. There, and he wanted to try to 96 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 1: calm jury market, especially energy markets there and Horrormuz, as 97 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: he explained countless times on the show over the course 98 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,239 Speaker 1: of operation of a fury hormuse, is a very crucial 99 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 1: waterway because it is a means of trying to hold 100 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: the energy markets of the world essentially hostage. Twenty percent 101 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: of the world's oil flows through that straight Actually just 102 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: on Friday, we got some troubling new inflation data. It 103 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: looks like the monthly inflation metric went up the most 104 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: month to month in four years. But the specific gasoline metric, 105 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: the gasoline metric, this is really astonishing. There, the gasoline 106 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: metric has gone up on a month to month basis 107 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: the most in six decades. 108 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 2: That is astonishing. 109 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: I mean literally six decades, going back to the nineteen 110 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: sixties to roughly the Lyndon Johnson administration. Really crazy stuff. 111 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 1: So that above all is what Trump is essentially trying 112 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: to tamp down here. The problem again is that Iran 113 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:48,919 Speaker 1: is not upholding the end of the bargain. And the 114 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: latest actually that just happened on Friday morning is that 115 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 1: the speaker of Iran's parliament, a man by the name 116 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: of Golliboth, who is one of the leaders now of 117 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: the on the Republic of Iran again, this regime has 118 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: been deeply crippled. He's one of the leaders there, essentially 119 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 1: said this is essentially this is at the time that 120 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: Jady Vance was getting on the plane at Andrews Air 121 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: Force Base to fly to Islamabad, Pakistan. Run the same 122 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: time Gallibav of Iran puts on x quote. Two of 123 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet 124 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 1: to be implemented, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release 125 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: of Iran's blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations. 126 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin. So 127 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: jady Vance was saying, Iran better not play us. Well, 128 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 1: I hate to say it, but Iran is literally playing 129 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: us like they're literally doing it in real time. They 130 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: are trolling us. They are are just messing with us. 131 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: The notion that the United States will go ahead and 132 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 1: unfreeze the terrorist Irani regimes frozen assets in banks held 133 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: in the US is nuts. These acid has been frozen 134 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: for decades. So the whole thing is frank mess. Is 135 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: very much open question as to where exactly we go 136 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: from here. But first, folks, just a word from our 137 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: sponsorfor today show, which is Angel's Studio. You know, I 138 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: recently joined the Angel Guild and watched their new documentary 139 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: film Death of Recess. Let me tell you, I was 140 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: not expecting this. It was a wonderful, wonderful, powerful documentary 141 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: about the rise of the corrupt teachers unions led by 142 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: organizations like the NEA. Look, folks, for me, it's actually 143 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: very personal. I come from a lineage of teachers. My 144 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,239 Speaker 1: mother was a teacher, my grandmother, great grandmother all teachers, 145 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: And I heard my mother all the time back when 146 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: she was teaching about the way in which the teachers 147 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: unions would come in and in dogrinight our kids and overall, 148 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: just take the classmic experience and use it not as 149 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: a means of enriching the pupils, but rather as a 150 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: means of ultimately enriching the teachers and all that that 151 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: and tells there. So kids are being pulled into all 152 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: sorts of ideological battles. It ultimately is what happens when 153 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: institutions protect themselves instead of children. But really, this is 154 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: why platforms like Angel Studios matter because they're willing to 155 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: tell stories that others won't. 156 00:07:58,240 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 2: So folks, go. 157 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: To angel dot com slash hammer to join the Angel 158 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: Guilt and watch Death of Recess right now. If you 159 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,119 Speaker 1: care about the future of your children, this is essential viewing. 160 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: I guarantee you, folks, this will not prove to be 161 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: a waste of your time. So again, there's a huge 162 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: question whether or not this shit down in Pakistan is 163 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: actually even going to happen? Really, I mean, is this 164 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: actually even going to happen this weekend? To me, it 165 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: seems eminently possible that jad Vans could fly halfway around 166 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: the world of Pakistan and as Iran essentially says, just kidding, 167 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: you know, the conditions were met, and then he gets 168 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 1: on a plane and hops all the way back. So 169 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: Horne moves is largely still being shot. Trump is rapidly 170 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: souring on the deal in real time while the vice 171 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: president is flying halfway around the world. I Meanwhile, hostilities 172 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: between Israel and has Ball and Lebanon are indeed heating up. 173 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 1: Israel has waged some pretty serious warfare against what remains 174 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: of Hezbolah in Lebanon. Recall that Hesbla, is Iran's number 175 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: one site Islamic Hesbelah, was grievously wounded in twenty twenty four, 176 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: ultimately colmanating in the assassination of Hassan Israla, who is 177 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:12,199 Speaker 1: the decades long head of that particular jihadist organizational hierarchy. 178 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:17,439 Speaker 1: But there still are remnants, and unfortunately pretty lethal remnants, 179 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 1: and Israel is now going to war as Heasbella rockets 180 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: continued to rain down on Northern is in particular. Next Yahoo, 181 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 1: for what it's worth, on Thursday, did tell President Trump 182 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: that he will scale back upon President Trump's request. So 183 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: Trump seems like he is interested in trying to make 184 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 1: this thing work, and of course he is. This is 185 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: a guy who campaigns against forever warse Now, if in theory, 186 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: if in theory this conflict were to end right now, 187 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: which I do not believe it is going to do, 188 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: Trump has left all the American military assets in the region, 189 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: like literally, they're just sitting there, like the aircraft carriers, 190 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: the USS Abraham Lincoln, et cetera. They're just sitting there. 191 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: They're off the coast in the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, 192 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: Indian Ocean, et cetera. They're essentially just waiting to be 193 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:04,079 Speaker 1: ordered to resume hostilities. So I don't think this is 194 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: going to be the end. But I do think that 195 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: it's worth emphasizing that if this is indeed the end 196 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 1: of Operation Epic theory, it will be a mixed bag result. 197 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: On the one hand, it will still be a very 198 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: fine result because the situation in the Middle East is 199 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: undoubtedly much better now than it was a month and 200 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: a half ago. The Iranian Navy and the Iranian Air Force, 201 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: as Secretary of warpete Heexdath has said, are essentially non existent. 202 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 1: The Navy has essentially sunk to the bomb the sea, 203 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: and the Air Force is essentially donezo. Nonetheless, they still 204 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: do have Ballista missiles and drones and all sorts of 205 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: other offensive facing weapons capabilities. Perhaps even more to the point, 206 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 1: they still have hundreds of kilograms we believe of enriched uranium. 207 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 1: The nuclear sites have been damaged, but some of them 208 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: still exists, and the regime certainly still exists, albeit in 209 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:57,559 Speaker 1: a heavily heavily subdued, dumbed down and largely of no 210 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: entirely defanged form. So it would be a partial victory, 211 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 1: but not a total victory if this were to actually 212 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: be the end of Operation Epic Theory. Again, my read 213 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: on the situation is that Donald Trump was above all 214 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: trying to calm down Jitry markets. That he's trying to 215 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: indicate not to the Orions because who cares what they think. 216 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: He's trying to indicate to the Europeans, to our allies 217 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: in Asia, the Far East, Australia, Japan, India, whoever, that 218 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: we are trying in good faith to try to reach 219 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 1: a deal here, that this thing does not go on forever. 220 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:30,839 Speaker 1: But the Iranians are just systemically incapable of engaging in 221 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 1: good faith negotiations. Again, I could be wrong. Maybe we'll 222 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: come back here on Monday show on Tuesday. I'll be 223 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: off on Monday. I'll come back on Tuesday, and there 224 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 1: will actually be a brand new deal, and maybe things 225 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 1: will look all cheery there. I would not get my 226 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: hopes up. In fact, I'm very much not getting my 227 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: hopes out there. If I had to place a wager, 228 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: I think the hostilities will probably resume within the next 229 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,559 Speaker 1: week or so. Obviously we will see whether I am 230 00:11:53,640 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: right or not. So joining us now to try to 231 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: make sense of this very chaotic moving picture of a 232 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: so called seasefire is Eli Lake. Eli Lake is a 233 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: columnist for The Free Press, where he also hosts the 234 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: Breaking History podcast and all around Smart Guy when it 235 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: comes to Iran and related topics. So Eli thinks joined 236 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: the program ay long overdue main appearance. Actually, if I 237 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 1: may say so, we hope they'll join us again of 238 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: course soon as well. So what do you make of this. 239 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 1: I kind of just gave my take here. I don't frankly, 240 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: exactly know what to me because I don't think that 241 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: this actually is much of a ceasefire. It seems to 242 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 1: me that it's being violated in real time and the 243 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: goal poser shifting here. Is this a good thing? This 244 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: is actually going to hold for the full two weeks? 245 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,240 Speaker 1: Fit give us your kind of thirty five thousand foot 246 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: view assessment of it. 247 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 3: Well, I wrote originally that it was a very good 248 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 3: thing because I thought that when it was announced that 249 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 3: that was what the deal was meaning. If the straight 250 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 3: up FOROE moves opens and you know, in exchange for 251 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 3: basically a two week ceasefire, then and Iran was giving 252 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 3: up its only hard power leverage, which was to try 253 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 3: to shock the world economy, and the US and Israel 254 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 3: had accomplished a great deal in terms of defanging Iran's 255 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 3: ability not only you know, not only to threaten its neighbors. 256 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,199 Speaker 3: It still can, it does have ballistic missiles and launchers, 257 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 3: but you know, the ability for Iran to produce and 258 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 3: to replace its stocks and replenish its stocks. Add to 259 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 3: that the damage done in the Twelve Day War to 260 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 3: the nuclear program. Add to that the loss of its 261 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 3: leadership and everything else. Just I think that, you know, 262 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 3: the Iranian regime has been diminished and its ability to 263 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 3: be the belief of the Middle eastys diminished. And if 264 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 3: you then got the straight up her moves open, then 265 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 3: you basically would sort of reverse the damage done to 266 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 3: the global economy, which I think acted as a kind 267 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 3: of timer on the war, and the United States would 268 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 3: have been in the capartcy. So that's one of the 269 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 3: reasons I thought it was just cregically advantageous. The other reason, 270 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 3: to be perfectly blunt, is that the threat to bomb 271 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 3: Iran's power plants, let's leave bridges aside because they are 272 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 3: military purposes, to me, was a pointless kind of atrocity 273 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 3: that would have harmed our allies on the ground, which 274 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 3: are for the most part the Iranian people, not all 275 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 3: of them, but I'd say over eighty percent. And the 276 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 3: final idea for the war, at least as the Israelis 277 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 3: have said it, and occasionally even Donald Trump has been 278 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 3: that you know, when the bombing stops, there will be 279 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 3: an opportunity for the Iranians to take their country back. 280 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 3: And I believe the Mossad has capabilities in place that 281 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 3: would advantage that. It's no guarantee, but if that was 282 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 3: the idea, then bombing power plants and making the Iranian 283 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 3: population more desperate would be a way to make sure 284 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 3: that you could never get that payoff in the end, which, 285 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 3: again no guarantee. I'm not saying you bet the farm 286 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 3: on that, but I I think there's certainly a possibility given 287 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 3: recent history in Iran and my read of Iranian history 288 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 3: in general, which is that the Islamic Republic is an 289 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 3: anomaly when it comes to the broad sweep of what 290 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 3: Iranians are largely used to in terms of how they 291 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 3: organize themselves. So that's why initially I was very optimistic. 292 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 3: Now it looks like the Iranians are playing a bait 293 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 3: and switch. They are trying to expand the terms. They 294 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 3: have not really opened the strait. There was firing i 295 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 3: think yesterday against Kuwait really so it was a one 296 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 3: side I mean, if it's a one sided ceasefire, I 297 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 3: hope that Trump sees through it and just you know, 298 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 3: saying okay, if it's war you want and it's where 299 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:46,479 Speaker 3: you get. There was very good news, you know yesterday 300 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 3: when you saw the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutt, 301 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 3: And what did he say. He said that he was 302 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 3: working on getting those European mind sweepers two poor moves, 303 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 3: which means that there might be an opportunity to have 304 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 3: some of our NATO allies reluctantly relatedly sort of join 305 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 3: this mission to preserve an important waterway that protects the 306 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 3: global economy and certainly affects them, So that would be 307 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 3: good news. And then I think that there are military 308 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 3: options to try to clear that area out, not just 309 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 3: I mean there's obvious, the obvious one, which is naval convoys, 310 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 3: which is important. But I think that there are limited 311 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 3: ground operations that can be done to try to clear 312 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 3: the coastline. But I also think that those are risky. 313 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 3: And I think that after the amazing effort to try 314 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 3: to retrieve the second pilot from the down F fifteen 315 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 3: over the weekend, there might have been that the President said, 316 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 3: imagine if that hadn't gone the way we wanted and 317 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 3: they had a hostage. Imagine if they got more hostages 318 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 3: because of a ground operation. I think hostages paraded in 319 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 3: front of television would be a kind of political catastrophe 320 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 3: for Trump, and it would have been and that could 321 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 3: then we would really be in a lot of trouble. 322 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 3: So I think he's reluctant to try to commit ground forces, 323 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 3: and I understand that, but maybe others can contribute some 324 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,920 Speaker 3: ground forces. I do think that there are the military 325 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 3: operation is not impossible, and I think that's probably our 326 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:19,959 Speaker 3: best option for horror moves. And I think that, you know, 327 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 3: given the fact that this doesn't look like it's a 328 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,679 Speaker 3: real ceasefire at this point, then maybe that's where we're headed. 329 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: Eli Lake. 330 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: You can be followed on x at Eli Lake's comments 331 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,360 Speaker 1: with Free Press host of Bringing History at the Free Press. Eli, 332 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: thank you very much for that very throw assessment. Just 333 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: before you and I started chatting, actually there was a 334 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: statement release from from the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, 335 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: who was essentially the point man on the Iranian negotiating team, 336 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 1: basically saying that we're we're not even going to sit 337 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: down with the United States and discuss anything this weekend 338 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: in Pakistan unless the hostilities in Lebanon between Hezbala and 339 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: Israel sees and unless and until all the various frozen 340 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 1: Iranian assets in international fangial solutions are unfrozen. Certainly the 341 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 1: ladder is just not going to happen. It's just not 342 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: It's a complete and utter non starter. So I guess 343 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 1: you know, remain time. What's going to happen in Pakistan 344 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 1: this weekend? Is there going to be a meeting of 345 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 1: the first place there? And depending on the answers to 346 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 1: that question there, what's going to happen as early is 347 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 1: potentially Monday or Tuesday of next week. Then back in 348 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: hormones in Iran. 349 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 3: Well, okay, so let's start with Goalibof, the speaker of 350 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 3: the Iranian maj Les. He is one of five people 351 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 3: right now who comprise basically kind of a ruling council 352 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 3: for Iran, most of bah Kamine, who is the supreme leader. 353 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 3: And I'm reported at piece yesterday he's alive, he's talking, 354 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:45,119 Speaker 3: he is sentient, but he has delegated the responsibilities for 355 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 3: governing Iran and during the war and probably for the 356 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 3: foreseeable future to this five person council. Ghaliboff is one voice. 357 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 3: Almost everybody on it, with the exception of the President, 358 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 3: I think you would have to characterize as a fanatic, lunatic, 359 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 3: and the President himself obviously has no great shakes but 360 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:09,160 Speaker 3: is maybe more moderate, more realistic in my view, if 361 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 3: that could be posturing, but at least on the Lebanon front, 362 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 3: I think that there's potentially a win win where you know, 363 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 3: the Israelis hit very very hard last night, as I 364 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:27,439 Speaker 3: understand it, in a pretty significant bombing run. They hit 365 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 3: a lot of targets. And then you also now have 366 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 3: pretty much a political pledge from the government in Beyrout 367 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 3: and that is unprecedented at least in recent times that 368 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 3: they now consider has a lot to be an outlaw 369 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 3: organization and that they are going to be. I don't 370 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 3: know they have the capability, but then they've expressed that 371 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 3: they have the desire at least to disarm them. So 372 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 3: that's big because before governments in Beirut were intimidated by 373 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 3: Hasbalah for good reason, they were the strongest militia in 374 00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:03,920 Speaker 3: the country. So if maybe Netnya who can bank that 375 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 3: even though he knows it's probably not going to be successful, 376 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 3: with the understanding that you can come in and backstop 377 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 3: a Lebanese forward effort, that would be good for Israel 378 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 3: from the perspective of their regional diplomacy. I think it 379 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 3: would be good for Israel from the perspective of their 380 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 3: standing in the world, although that's not very great right now. 381 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 3: But the question is militarily would that be effective? And 382 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 3: the Israelis are living under you know, I don't know, 383 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 3: around one hundred rocket attacks a day from Hesbelah from 384 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 3: from their remaining stocks. The good news there is again 385 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 3: the Iranians don't have a pipeline to replenish them. They 386 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 3: can't even replenish their own missile stocks at this point. 387 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 3: So in some ways this seems like it's it feels 388 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 3: a little bit like the last Gasp, And you know, 389 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 3: in the meantime, I think that Israel's sort of goal 390 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,160 Speaker 3: at this point is to finish the organization. We'll see 391 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 3: if they're successful. But I think the idea that you've 392 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 3: already seen a change. If Hesbelah is now can no 393 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 3: longer dictate the politics of Lebanon, if the parasite has 394 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 3: is no longer in charge of the host, then that's 395 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 3: a change. And I think that there's an opportunity to 396 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 3: politically build on that and intermittently militarily build on it. 397 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 3: And maybe that means that that will give some space 398 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 3: tot and Yahoo, if you can convince his own country 399 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,200 Speaker 3: that they're going to call this part of the war 400 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 3: off and at least give some space to the negotiations. 401 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 3: I don't think the negotiations are going to go anywhere. 402 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,439 Speaker 3: I want to make that really clear. But if you 403 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 3: it also then sort of begins to change a little 404 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 3: bit of the narrative because if the Iranians can't, you know, 405 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 3: get to yes, and I don't think they will be 406 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 3: I don't think this this council will be able to 407 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 3: do that. 408 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 2: They're definitely not going to an ELM. So sorry to 409 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:46,199 Speaker 2: tell you off. 410 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: Come up on pretty heartbreak here there great analysis is 411 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 1: always you have Lake folks w all hands at Eli Lake, 412 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 1: host of Breaking History podcast for the Free Press. Eli, 413 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 1: we really appreciate joining us up by against soon if you. 414 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 3: Will, absolutely will do. Thank you so much, Josh big sham. 415 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 1: So in closing, before we move on, I want to 416 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: just state my position on what we see currently with 417 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: this eastfire in the Middle East, and two things are 418 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: simultaneously true at once. On the one hand, the situation 419 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 1: in the region is substantially better, no doubt about that, 420 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: than it was a month and a half ago. Frankly, 421 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 1: for the matter of the situation, is dramatically better in 422 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,200 Speaker 1: the region than it was prior to October seventh, twenty 423 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: twenty three. Iran has been severely degraded, its ring of terror, 424 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 1: its ring of fire, all of its various proxies, the 425 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:35,359 Speaker 1: Huthis and Yemen, Has Bula and Lebanon. Certainly Hamas, by 426 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: the way, they actually faced a deadline last evening on 427 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 1: Thursday evening, there was actually an international deadline from Trump's 428 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 1: Border Peace for Hamas to fully disarmed. The media didn't 429 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,359 Speaker 1: really cover this because they've been so obsessed with Iran, 430 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: and understandably so, Hamas, spice to say, did not actually 431 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 1: abide by this deadline to disarm there. So what happens 432 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 1: next in Gaza, I think is very much an open question. Frankly, 433 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,199 Speaker 1: Israel would be well within the rights to actually they 434 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,719 Speaker 1: so chose, and they saw a Nymen threat to resume 435 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 1: hostilities against what remains of Hamas. Now that Hamas has 436 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:10,160 Speaker 1: just not has not abided by their Trump imposed Board 437 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: of Peace international deadline. So the region is definitely still 438 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 1: a mess again. Where you where you have Islam, where 439 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,920 Speaker 1: you have radical Islam, you're gonna have a Messa situation. 440 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 1: I mean, this is the reason why the region is 441 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: so messy. But it's clearly better than it was a 442 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,439 Speaker 1: month and a half go prior to Operation Epic Fury. 443 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 1: It's clearly better than it was prior to October seven, 444 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: twenty firfty. 445 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:30,440 Speaker 2: All of that is true. 446 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 1: On the other hand, it is simultaneously true that on 447 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: the mission's own terms, Operation Epic Fury has not yet 448 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,919 Speaker 1: been accomplished. I think that I think that really just 449 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: cannot go without saying it seems like it is. It 450 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 1: should be obvious, it should it should be, frankly, be 451 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: self evidence that the mission is not yet done. Just 452 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, we saw that Aron was able 453 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: to launch some of these missiles at Diego Garcia, the 454 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 1: joint American British military base two and a half thousand 455 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 1: miles away in the Indian Ocean. That that missile range 456 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 1: shows that a sally the entire European continent is in place. 457 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 1: So there's still a threat. They are defanged, their Air Force, 458 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,920 Speaker 1: Navy essentially done so, but they are very much still 459 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 1: a threat. And unlesson until that is taken care of, 460 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: I think there will be legitimate questions frankly as to 461 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: what Donald Trump's legacy will look like when it comes 462 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 1: to essentially getting your opponent and wrestling match all the 463 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 1: way on the mat and then letting him go again. 464 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,479 Speaker 1: That's if it ends here. But I don't think it's 465 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 1: actually going to end here, So we will see what happens. 466 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:31,679 Speaker 1: Of course, if I am right, well we'll know a 467 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 1: lot more frankly after this meeting or non meaning in 468 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: Pakistan this weekend. Meanwhile, Trump's attacks on NATO continue a pace. 469 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 1: So NATO has nosed out the covered itself in glory 470 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,199 Speaker 1: over the course of this conflict. As we have covered 471 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 1: time and time again, Trump has called them out and 472 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,679 Speaker 1: it has said, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 473 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,679 Speaker 1: has basically said, what is the point, like literally, what 474 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: is the point of the United States subsizing this alliance 475 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 1: if you guys are are not gonna come to us 476 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: in our hour of need? And they're right, they are 477 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,199 Speaker 1: fundamentally correct. The European NATO countries are a bunch of 478 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 1: free writers. They are a bunch of free writers that 479 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: are continuing to live off of the American security umbrella. 480 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 1: NATO more generally speaking, is at this point a multilateral 481 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: internationalist organization in search of a purpose. NATO is obsolete 482 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:26,719 Speaker 1: and has them for three and a half decades. For 483 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 1: literally the best reason that an organization can be obsolete. 484 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 1: If you have a concrete goal in mind, and you 485 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 1: achieve that goal, take a bow, you know, clap your hands. Bravo, 486 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 1: you freaking did it. But maybe maybe, just maybe at 487 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: that point, bye bye, exit stage left, you know, go 488 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: do something new with your life. Nonetheless, this doesn't happen, 489 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 1: as you know, because people have careers, and they have 490 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: and they have money, and they have all these some 491 00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 1: costs and commitments there. So the threats of organization mission 492 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 1: creep is here there in everywhere threat where As here 493 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: you have an organization that has lived to see the fulfillments, 494 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 1: the actual completion of its task. I've compared here on 495 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 1: the show in the past NATO in this respect, it's 496 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 1: somewha of a Cras's analogy, but I think I think 497 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,879 Speaker 1: it holds to the Human Rights Campaign, which was the 498 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: pro same sex marriage organization. You know, you know that 499 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 1: that stupid red equal sign then became like a purple 500 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 1: and yellow equal sign, but that dumb equal sign logo 501 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 1: during the marriage warstbaate there. Guess what they won Unfortunately 502 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 1: it was a garbage Spreme Court opinion from Anthony Kennedy 503 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 1: and frankly, a terrible public policy. It's wrong marriage should 504 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,679 Speaker 1: between one man and one one. But they won, and 505 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,360 Speaker 1: instead of going away, what did the HRC do? They 506 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 1: just rebranded as a pro trans organization that, frankly, in 507 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,360 Speaker 1: many ways, that's actually someone better than what NATO has done. 508 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 1: Not better, because transgenderism is a lying humanity and it's 509 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: just it's horrific, It's absolutely horrific. But it's better at 510 00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 1: least if they actually chose a new mission in the 511 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: first place. NATO hasn't even done that. NATO has literally 512 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: I could not tell you what NATO stands for. I 513 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 1: mean that is the craziest part. This organization achieved its 514 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: mission three and a half decades ago, and I literally 515 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: could not tell you what it stands for todays. So 516 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 1: Trump is understandably upset. These countries, the UK, France, Germany, 517 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: all of them have barely seen fit to lift a 518 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 1: finger to help America in our hour of need. The 519 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: only country that has meaningfully contributed to this war is Israel. 520 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,200 Speaker 1: Some countries have done a little bit. I think South 521 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,200 Speaker 1: Korea has been a little involved in sending some people 522 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: to the straight. There barely anything there, but NATO has 523 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: done absolutely nothing there. Now the silver lining is that 524 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 1: Mark Ruti, who is the long standing Dutch political figure 525 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,119 Speaker 1: who was currently the General Secretary of NATO, he is 526 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,399 Speaker 1: aware of this, and interestingly enough, he actually went on 527 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 1: Jake Tapper's CNN show to essentially say that Trump that 528 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 1: there's a kernel of truth theory. 529 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,480 Speaker 2: Go go ahead and check this out, President Trump. 530 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 4: He's not been hiding his frustrations with NATO countries. 531 00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 2: How was the meeting? Did he say he's withdrawing. 532 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 5: Let me be absolutely clear, he is clearly disappointed and 533 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,359 Speaker 5: with many nature allies, and I can see his point. 534 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 5: But at the same time I was also able to 535 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 5: point in to the fact that the large majority of 536 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:20,640 Speaker 5: European nations has been helpful with basing, with logistics, with overflights, 537 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,439 Speaker 5: with making sure that they lift up to the commitments. 538 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,399 Speaker 5: And there is also widespread support for the fact that 539 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 5: degrading the nuclear and the ballistic missile capacity from Iran 540 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,919 Speaker 5: was really crucial and that only the US was able 541 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,239 Speaker 5: at this point to do that. 542 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 1: Okay, so you know you're in trouble when you're the 543 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 1: head of oranization and you are conceding that your number 544 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,719 Speaker 1: one critic is on something. Now again, he has a 545 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 1: very self serving need to say this because America again 546 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: is the number one subsize, number one funder of the 547 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 1: new alliance there. So if this dude wants a job, 548 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 1: if he doesn't want to go back to try to 549 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 1: run for the Dutch legislature or try to go be 550 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: a consultant or a lobbyist, whatever, he actually wants to 551 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: keep his job as a General Secretary of NATO, then 552 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 1: he needs America to stay in. So he actually needs 553 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 1: to flatter Trump a little bit, which is why, if 554 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: you recall, at the NATO summit back in December, he 555 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 1: called Trump Daddy, which is really quite funny. Actually, so 556 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 1: he's actually ses he's got above and beyond actually in 557 00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 1: deeply obsequious fashion. Frankly at times there whether or not 558 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: Donald Trump actually adbuis this, I think is a whole 559 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 1: another story. It's very much a story though that we 560 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 1: are keeping an eye on here. Speaking of things that 561 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 1: we do not expect people to buy. There is a 562 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 1: story we have not covered yet that is now picking 563 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 1: him traction as it should. I want to set the 564 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,719 Speaker 1: table for you, furthest for you, and then we'll come 565 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: back on the other side of the break to kind 566 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: of finish the story. The daily listeners and viewers of 567 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: the show will recall that a couple of months ago, 568 00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 1: maybe in late January early February, Giver take I leave 569 00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 1: here in South Florida. I told you at the time 570 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 1: that I received a phone call from a man who 571 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 1: was very personally conservative, perhaps necessarily on immigration. 572 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 2: I know him personally. 573 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 1: He's a very nice guy, major donor to Republicans here 574 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: in Florida and Concerto Causes. And he called me to 575 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 1: a century try to pull test something. Get my instinct, 576 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: he said, Josh, I've been in touch with Maria Salazar's 577 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,160 Speaker 1: office when it comes to a possible immigration compromise. The 578 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,160 Speaker 1: compromise will essentially be that it will be increased for security, 579 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 1: for some path to legal status for those who are 580 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,800 Speaker 1: here illegally. But you know, he assured me it won't 581 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 1: be citizenship. It'll be something less than that there and 582 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 1: he was so confident, seemingly that this would be popular, 583 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 1: that would be politically popular than President Trump's base, and 584 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 1: that it would be the right and just thing to 585 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: do as a matter of public policy, to which I 586 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: respectfully but politely said, this is crazy. 587 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:02,480 Speaker 2: This is absolutely nuts. This is just the George W. 588 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 1: Bush second term amnesty debate all over again, where Jeff Sessions, 589 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 1: among others helped kill it in the Senate against against 590 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 1: President Bush and his Republican sympathizers. They are the pro 591 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: amnesty caucus in the Republican Caucus. Well, I hate to 592 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 1: be the bearer bad news. I told this done by 593 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 1: the way. I said, Look, I love you a great guy. 594 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,920 Speaker 1: MAGA will never buy this for a second. I will 595 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: vehemently oppose. This is what I told him, vehemently. I 596 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 1: used the word vehemently. Well, the bill is now out, 597 00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 1: and the bill is called the Dinity Act. And I 598 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 1: can't tell you that in see his coming because I 599 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 1: literally got word of it once before it became public. 600 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 1: And this bill is a flaming, stinking bit of Republican 601 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 1: duplicitous garbage. It is offensive and it should be it 602 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,600 Speaker 1: should it should be killed. And frankly, anyone who's board 603 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 1: this train ought to be primaried at the next available 604 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 1: election opportunity. 605 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 2: So what is the so called called did They Act? 606 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 1: That is proposed by Maria Salazar, one of the squishiest 607 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 1: rhinos in the entire House Republican Caucus, unfortunately from near 608 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: where I live here in South Florida. So the so 609 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: called didn the ADS would essentially allow illegal aliens to 610 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 1: apply for temporary legal status through this new program called 611 00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 1: the quote unquote Dignity Program how or Williams sounding, provided, 612 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,600 Speaker 1: of course, they need specific conditions. Those conditions include passing 613 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 1: background checks, paying restitution in taxes, and maintaining gainful employment 614 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 1: and exchange. For this, there will be some a morphous 615 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 1: amount of war of security there, and the bill, according 616 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 1: to its technical terms, does not offer a direct path 617 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 1: to citizenship. The problem is that Maria Salazar is a 618 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: moron and every so often she just lets the mask slip. So, 619 00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 1: for instance, she joined local news Channel ten here in 620 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 1: South Florida and the mask very much up to go 621 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: ahead and watch this. 622 00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,719 Speaker 6: We give them dignity at some point in the future, 623 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 6: and another legislator will write another law to give them 624 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,480 Speaker 6: paths to citizenship. Right now, what we need to do 625 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 6: is to buy peace for these people, allow them to stay, 626 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,520 Speaker 6: to continue working because they're needed. 627 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 1: Uh you ma'am are an idiot. You are a capital 628 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 1: or Republican trying to sell your bill. You and your 629 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 1: traitorous co signers trying to sell this bill to a 630 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 1: party that has shifted dramatically to the right on immigration 631 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 1: since the Bush era, let alone the Reagan era when 632 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 1: you have the infamous Reagan Tip O'Neil immigration compromise. So 633 00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,960 Speaker 1: you're trying to sell this bill to a MAGA base 634 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 1: that has become very very hawkish on the immigration issue. While, 635 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 1: by the way, someone's Hanley picking up new voters, new 636 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 1: black mail voters, new Hispanic voters, young mail voters, ball 637 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 1: stripes there. So the immigration issue has not been a 638 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 1: political loser for the Maga era GOP, but they definitely 639 00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,479 Speaker 1: been more hawkish on it. And you can't even keep 640 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,160 Speaker 1: your darn mouth shot to say that you're not gonna 641 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 1: try to give citizenship. 642 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 2: It's nuts. It's nuts. 643 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,799 Speaker 1: Mike Lee, the Senator from Utah not having it, nor 644 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 1: should he. Here was Mike Lee just ripping Rhya Salazar 645 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 1: and saying that this bill should never ever be pass 646 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 1: Go ahead and watch this. 647 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 4: Amnesty is still amnesty, even if you call it dignity, 648 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 4: and even if you make people pay a fine So look, 649 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,680 Speaker 4: if you want to push amnesty, go right ahead. I 650 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,560 Speaker 4: strongly disagree with that, but don't tell us that it's 651 00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 4: not amnesty, because that's exactly. 652 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:31,680 Speaker 5: What it is. 653 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:33,200 Speaker 2: So it's obviously amnesty. 654 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,440 Speaker 1: Amnesty to me is defined as taking someone who is 655 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,200 Speaker 1: here illegally and allowing them to live here illegally. You 656 00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 1: do not need citizenship for it to be amnesty. If 657 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,080 Speaker 1: you take someone here who is here illegally and then 658 00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:48,800 Speaker 1: they are suddenly here legally, guess what, that's amnesty. You 659 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,320 Speaker 1: might not think of it as amsy, but that is 660 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,560 Speaker 1: absolutely one thousand percent an amnesty system. 661 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:52,719 Speaker 3: There. 662 00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,439 Speaker 1: I don't know what you're this sis, if you're twenty 663 00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 1: twenty six or two thousand and six. No, really, I 664 00:34:58,000 --> 00:34:59,759 Speaker 1: actually I look at I look at this bill, and 665 00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:01,239 Speaker 1: my my eyes want to roll through the back of 666 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 1: my head. I mean, each and everyone, you guys should 667 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,600 Speaker 1: go ahead and read up on this legislation, because each 668 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 1: and every one of these congressmen and centers deserves to 669 00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 1: be primary. Unless there is some sort of outrageously good 670 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,279 Speaker 1: reason that I cannot possibly think of as to why 671 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,800 Speaker 1: some certain individual might need to sign on here. This 672 00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:25,839 Speaker 1: is bad, bad legislation and they really, really, really ought 673 00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,080 Speaker 1: to pay some sort of price for it. The GP 674 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: cannot go soft on the immigration issue. Maybe you change 675 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,200 Speaker 1: the way in the short term. Maybe maybe that's enforce 676 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,200 Speaker 1: from here through November. Maybe I'm not even sure about that. 677 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 1: You can focus disportionately on people who have committed high 678 00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 1: profile crimes. Guess what, they're actually already doing that though, 679 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,160 Speaker 1: And again, as we have spent a million times, just 680 00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 1: being here illegally is a crime unto itself, So this 681 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,320 Speaker 1: is totally going backwards. By the way, border security is 682 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,200 Speaker 1: still an issue. Southern southern border Mechau with Mescow border 683 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:59,720 Speaker 1: crossings have dramatically plummeted, dramatically plummeted, certainly since the Trump 684 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,360 Speaker 1: issue came back into power there. And that's amazing that 685 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 1: they've they've they've plummeted ninety five plus percent according to 686 00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 1: some metrics. It's been incredible. But there there was a 687 00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,480 Speaker 1: remarkable story that broke. According to Bill Malugan, he reports 688 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 1: over at over at Fox News, this happened just on 689 00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 1: on Thursday. Border patrol caught and arrested four British nationals 690 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,480 Speaker 1: entering the US illegally in a remote part of the 691 00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:25,480 Speaker 1: forest of Maine crossing in from Canada, probably the province 692 00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 1: of New Brunswick. Their names of these British nationals Ali Mohammad, 693 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:36,040 Speaker 1: Ali Abdullah Hammid, Mohammed Nagi, Ibrahim Ayub Khan, and Mohammed 694 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 1: Sultan Salah. I'm noticing a theme, are you as well? 695 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 1: Is this really the time I ask for an amnesty? 696 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:50,279 Speaker 1: I think the question, Frankly answers itself. Wall Street Journal 697 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 1: reporting yesterday another troubling story. The US fertility rate has 698 00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:58,279 Speaker 1: hit a record low. This this is topic that we 699 00:36:58,280 --> 00:36:59,799 Speaker 1: will come back to many times there. It's a very 700 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:01,719 Speaker 1: very important topic, one that's not going to go stale 701 00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,759 Speaker 1: unfortunately in time. Assume overall the American fertility rate has 702 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,799 Speaker 1: gone down to one point five seven one point five 703 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:14,880 Speaker 1: to seven children per child bearing woman. That is the 704 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,960 Speaker 1: lowest in recorded history. You need eight what the demographers 705 00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,399 Speaker 1: call a TFI or a total fertility rates of two 706 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,279 Speaker 1: point one. You need two point one in order to 707 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:28,799 Speaker 1: grow a population, And contrary to the open border crowd even, 708 00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,120 Speaker 1: you need to lend the whole world. That's not really 709 00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,840 Speaker 1: gonna necessarily change things. If the name population is still shrinking. 710 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,680 Speaker 1: There's all sorts of reasons for this beginning, I would 711 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,880 Speaker 1: argue with the decline of religion and the decline of 712 00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:46,720 Speaker 1: actual tendants in house of worship churches, Bible believing churches, 713 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,440 Speaker 1: tour observing synagogues, things like that. That above all is 714 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:54,279 Speaker 1: the number one because all sorts of other sociological factors 715 00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,160 Speaker 1: as well. I having to think that our higher education 716 00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,600 Speaker 1: complex has a lot to do with the story. I 717 00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,200 Speaker 1: mean that, frankly, that way too many people go to college, 718 00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 1: Way too many people pursue degrees for four years and 719 00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,440 Speaker 1: then try to pursue careers as opposed to trying to 720 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,840 Speaker 1: focus on family and dating and building a life together. 721 00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:14,840 Speaker 1: I think about that. I mean, I mean, who seriously 722 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,840 Speaker 1: dates for marriage in college? It's a very very rare breed. 723 00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,919 Speaker 1: Who has the mentality in the first place. Most people 724 00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:22,520 Speaker 1: are there to kind of study a little bit and 725 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,160 Speaker 1: have fun and drink beer and go watch sports and 726 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:30,200 Speaker 1: this and that there. So we're structurally delaying the age 727 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,759 Speaker 1: of dating and marriage. Therefore no surprise that according to 728 00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,480 Speaker 1: this same poll, it is actually the first year, reports 729 00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:39,799 Speaker 1: to Walter Journal in twenty twenty five, that there were 730 00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:42,920 Speaker 1: more child bearing women in their late thirties than their 731 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,480 Speaker 1: early twenties, the first year on record that's ever happened. 732 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:51,480 Speaker 1: That is not a recipe for sustaining population growth. So 733 00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,560 Speaker 1: there's lots and lots of ways to try to fix this. 734 00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,160 Speaker 1: Some has been tried in recent years in places like 735 00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:00,239 Speaker 1: Polled and Hungary and Central and Eastern in Europe. Those 736 00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,960 Speaker 1: solutions are not perfect, but they're certainly a step in 737 00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,680 Speaker 1: the right direction. Overall, though, this is a cultural and 738 00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,279 Speaker 1: spiritual crisis, and a religious one. And the number one 739 00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:09,640 Speaker 1: thing that I come back to over and over and 740 00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:13,320 Speaker 1: over again is this country needs another great awakening, and 741 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,839 Speaker 1: we need it really, really, really badly. Easier said than done. 742 00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:17,200 Speaker 2: Trust me. 743 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,120 Speaker 1: If I can make it happen, I would. But that 744 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,440 Speaker 1: is the number one thing that would make this I think, 745 00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:26,200 Speaker 1: really really, really considerably better. Well, speaking of things that 746 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,560 Speaker 1: are better, we will close with this. It's Master's weekend. 747 00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:33,040 Speaker 1: We recently just concluded the NSA, March Madness Battle Torment. 748 00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:34,800 Speaker 1: This really is the greatest time of the year on 749 00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,160 Speaker 1: the sports calendar. You have Opening Day for baseball, you 750 00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,760 Speaker 1: have March Madness, which is just an amazing, amazing events. 751 00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,320 Speaker 1: Now you have the Masters. I even obsessed with the 752 00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:45,560 Speaker 1: Masters for my entire life. I own no shortage of 753 00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,400 Speaker 1: Masters paraphernalia when it comes to hats. When it comes 754 00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,560 Speaker 1: to shirts, I tragically have never been as a lifelong 755 00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,520 Speaker 1: sports fan. My two sports bucket list items for the 756 00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,120 Speaker 1: events that I am most dying to go to I 757 00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,320 Speaker 1: have not been to are the Masters, for which I 758 00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,879 Speaker 1: enter the lotter to get tickets essentially every year I've 759 00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,560 Speaker 1: never won. If by some chance you work for a 760 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,080 Speaker 1: group close to August National and or listened to the show, Hello, 761 00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 1: I'm right here, I would love to go one year. 762 00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:10,759 Speaker 2: So there's that. 763 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:12,759 Speaker 1: And it's also the Monaco Grand Prix in formy one 764 00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,320 Speaker 1: those my two sports bucket lists items. 765 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:15,520 Speaker 6: There. 766 00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:19,239 Speaker 2: The Masters is just a magisterial event. It is what 767 00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 2: can you say? 768 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:25,080 Speaker 1: It's simply paradisical. It's paradise on Earth. Looking at August 769 00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,920 Speaker 1: National Golf Club, Amen corner of the eleven twelve thirteen holes, 770 00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:32,799 Speaker 1: the amazing bridge, the Hogan Bridge there and the par 771 00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:37,440 Speaker 1: three twelfth halled, the azaleas, the flowers, the magnolias, the trees. 772 00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,200 Speaker 1: Have you ever seen that shade of green before? That verdant, 773 00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,800 Speaker 1: striking shade of green on the fairways and the putting 774 00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:47,600 Speaker 1: services there the caddies are where these traditional white jumpsuits, 775 00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:53,919 Speaker 1: the iconic caddy uniforms. It's a place, as the tagline goes, 776 00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:59,240 Speaker 1: a tradition unlike any other. Interestingly, ironically, it has established 777 00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,560 Speaker 1: that that reputation, despite being I believe the youngest actually 778 00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,440 Speaker 1: have the four golf majors. They're going on the shortest 779 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,839 Speaker 1: period of time. But it is atrition like any other, 780 00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,000 Speaker 1: and the prices have stayed that way. The prices for 781 00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,760 Speaker 1: a hot dog a coke have stated that the same price, 782 00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:17,719 Speaker 1: roughly speaking, barely moving an inch for decades, you know. 783 00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:21,160 Speaker 1: Earlier this week, Mark Calkovecia, a former major golf champion, 784 00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,520 Speaker 1: was kicked off the grounds for using a cell phone. 785 00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:24,920 Speaker 2: No cell phones allowed. 786 00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:29,840 Speaker 1: It is a throwback in time and it's just an amazing, amazing, 787 00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,880 Speaker 1: amazing tournament, a quintessential American sporting experience. I will be 788 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:35,840 Speaker 1: at a wedding on Sunday, my cousin's wedding there, but 789 00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:39,640 Speaker 1: I will be sneaking in some streaming of the Masters 790 00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:41,799 Speaker 1: on my phone during the ceremonying. I hope my cousin, 791 00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:43,520 Speaker 1: if she's watching this, it is not two offended there. 792 00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,120 Speaker 1: It's gonna be a great wedding, but I look forward 793 00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,319 Speaker 1: to be a great, great weekend at August National very 794 00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,719 Speaker 1: much as well, folks. Have a great weekend. Will be 795 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:51,480 Speaker 1: right back Here're nottally gonna be off Mondays. We'll be 796 00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,560 Speaker 1: right back with a new show on Tuesday. Mark Davis 797 00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:55,520 Speaker 1: is filling in for me on Monday. Have a great weekend, folks,