WEBVTT - Is Iran Going To Go Full Alamo? 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.280 Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to 0:00:06.280 --> 0:00:08.800 take advantage of the many free online courses there, and 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:11.119 of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale Dialogues, all of 0:00:11.119 --> 0:00:14.080 them at q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:19.400 Apple iTunes and Hillsdale Grace America. Good Thursday to you 0:00:19.480 --> 0:00:22.640 from the Relief Factor Studio West. I'm beginning the program 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:25.400 with the former Israeli Ambassador the United States, former Deputy 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:28.280 Prime Minister of Israel, doctor Michael Oran. You can follo 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:31.760 him on exit d R Michael Orran, Ambassador Oran. I 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:34.040 think we're about to get into a battle with Iran. 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:36.720 I don't care about the talks tomorrow unless they give 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:40.440 them the Assaud option and Hamini capitulates, which I don't 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:42.800 see happening. That's where I think it's going. What do 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:43.520 you think. 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:45.600 I think so too. 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:46.400 I think so too. 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:48.600 Let me dug down a little bit and just what's 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:49.520 happened of the last week. 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:53.400 Because we sort of opened with that drone approaching the 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:57.360 USS Lincoln. I'm getting shot down at a champ by 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:02.080 Iranian missile boats. Try to take over an American tanker, 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:04.960 American flag tanker in the Gulf of for moves. 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:07.199 Why would Heron do this big question? 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:10.280 Why would he ron try to provoke the United States 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:12.080 into launching a war now? 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:15.600 And the answer is this, I think the Irinians understand what. 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:20.080 You understand, Hugh, that these negotiations are going nowhere that 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:22.399 maybe they can conceive part of their nuclear program. What 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:24.720 is their conceed It's it's half destroyed at least already. 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.039 And secondly, you know they're not going to give up 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:29.360 their support for terrorist groups. They're not going to give 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:32.320 up their missile program. This is in their DNA, It's 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:35.280 who they are. And so the question is when does 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:38.880 the America strike. And since America's building up his forces 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:40.479 very rapidly in the Middle East, now that. 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:43.920 The hw Bush aircraft charriage is on route in approaching. 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:45.920 The area, the Irrinians would rad to have this, have 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:47.880 the America attack earlier or rather than later. 0:01:48.920 --> 0:01:51.280 And they think they can maybe survive it, and they maybe. 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:55.040 Can cause prohibitive damage to American naval vessels and forces 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:57.360 in the Middle East and force and cease fire. 0:01:58.120 --> 0:01:59.720 They are relying on the experience they. 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:04.560 Had last summer when the Ryans fired rather performatively at Katar, 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:08.040 and Trump quickly called for ceasefire. 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:11.480 They were going to make up his calculation on this. 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:13.680 But that's what I'm thinking to me, there's no other 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:18.160 reason why this drone approached the USS Lincoln. Why these 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:20.760 missile boats try to take an American flag tanker is 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:25.040 to provoke the United States into a military confrontation sooner 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:26.240 rather than later. 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:30.920 So, Michael, why would they want to do that because 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:34.720 we've already got there a lot of force. I assume 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:37.480 they will strike at Israel. Israel will join in. It 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:41.120 will be an overwhelming punishment that I think will end 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:44.400 up with regime decapitation. Do they not believe that? 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:48.400 I think that right now they understand that the United 0:02:48.400 --> 0:02:52.440 States position military deployment in the Middle East is not 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:52.959 as a height. 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:53.600 It's far from it. 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:56.440 Right now, you have one aircraft carrier there, best of 0:02:56.440 --> 0:02:58.840 my knowledge, the aircraft carriers about ninety planes. Of those 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:02.919 about seventy warplanes. You have other planes safe in the area, 0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:07.680 You have bases. But listen, even generally, even in President 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.040 Biden on October eighth, twenty twenty three, cent two aircraft 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:13.480 carriers off the coast of Lebanon the Ford in the 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:16.640 Eisenhower and that was considered a formidable force, not a 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:17.760 force for war, but war. 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:20.560 For preventing war. And you need a much bigger build 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:21.120 up if. 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:22.800 You're going to take on a country of ninety million 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:25.720 people that is more than the size of France and 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:29.400 Germany combined. It is a very huge country, armed with 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:32.160 thousands of rockets, many thousands of drones, and then it 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:35.520 has positions throughout the Middle East. It has all these proxies. 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:36.640 And you know all. 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:40.280 The difficulties the US Navy had in fighting the Goodies. 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.840 I have a colleague who was an officer in the 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:46.280 US Navy was involved in that in that campaign, told 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:49.040 me it was the biggest combat operation that the US 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:50.520 Navy has had since World War Two. 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:52.360 Messages from the Hoodies alone. 0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:54.680 And had a very difficult time because they were firing 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:58.600 between thirty and forty rockets at US Naval vestas every day, 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:01.360 and they had to do all these face if maneuvers. 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:03.920 In fact, at one point one of the airplanes off 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:07.720 the aircraft carrier went into the ocean because they were 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:11.560 moving so fast trying to swivel to avoid these oncoming rockets. 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:12.920 Well, you're going to get that from many. 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:17.839 Different directions from Iran, from the Syrian and Iraqi Iran 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:19.320 backed militias. 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:22.320 They also have rockets, and it's going to be a 0:04:22.360 --> 0:04:23.000 big challenge. 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:25.400 The last time we spoke here we talked about I said, 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:30.560 remember the Sheffield right and the HMS the British destroyer 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:33.000 that was hit by an Exocet missile file by the 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:35.320 Argentinians during the Falklin Boards of nineteen eighty two. I 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:38.200 think we also have to remember the coal and two thousand, 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:42.400 the US naval vessels that was hit by a suicide 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:47.960 speedboat in Odden Harbor and Yemen in two thousand. Iran 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:51.200 has many, many of these speedboats. The hooties are perfectly 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:52.360 willing to blow themselves up. 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:55.000 They're big on market. So you're going to have you 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:57.239 coming at something like the USS. 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:00.640 Abraham Lincoln is going to have all the thrones, all 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:03.359 these rockets, all these missile boats coming at you. It 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:05.680 is going to be quite a challenge. So in order 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:07.640 to meet that challenge, you have to build up, build 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:11.679 up anti missile capability which is unrivaled anywhere in the world, 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:14.719 and that takes time, and I think dat armies understand that, 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:18.000 and they don't want to give President Trump at that time. 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:22.200 So ambasorin, I don't think Trump will go until he 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:26.280 has everything there. But as Admiral Montgomery said on this 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:29.800 program the day or Friday before the Monday we last talked, 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:35.360 no doubt we have one or two Ohio class Tomahawk 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:38.960 missile carrying submarines. We have all of the Air Force 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:41.760 assets that have been moved to the variety of bases, 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:43.719 and we have the Israeli Air Force, and we have 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.920 the first carrier and the second carriers en route. If 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:50.880 we cannot decapitate a regime or overwhelm it with force, 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:54.719 with that, then the United States isn't a superpower and 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:56.600 we don't have to invade. We're not going to invade. 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:59.280 If we can't do it, that can't be done. What 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:02.360 in fact Israel to do if we begin that campaign. 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:05.000 Before I answer that, let me tell you. 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:08.080 Let me tell you about whether America, what America can 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:10.240 and cannot do. I think the expectation is not just 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:13.480 a whole. The expectation is that once America acts against 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:16.960 the regime, that the people once again rise up. Typicular 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:19.839 they see that the regime's hands are tied, that it's 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:23.360 on its hind legs, they'll rise up again. And that 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.880 is where the regime gets its koudi gras, not to say, 0:06:26.920 --> 0:06:29.040 from American missiles, but from its own people, as. 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:30.960 It should be, by the way, and here we get 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:34.680 to the reason why nine Arab and Muslim. 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.400 Countries pressured President Trump to go back to the negotiating 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:41.440 table even after the Iranians have balked at meeting with 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:45.839 the President and other Arab Middle East term representatives in 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:48.839 acre Instable this week, and they move the talks to Aman. 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:54.400 It's interesting, Hugh, that these these nine countries share Israel 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:57.839 in America's interest in removing the nuclear threat from around, 0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:01.120 removing the ballistic missile capability from on, and stopping Iran 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:03.240 support for terrorist groups throughout the. 0:07:03.160 --> 0:07:04.920 Middle East of the world. That we all agree on. 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:08.000 That there's one point we are not on the same page, 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:08.880 and it's this. 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:09.840 It's this. 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:15.000 These countries want to see a weakened, emasculated Iran. They 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:18.440 don't necessarily want the Iranan regime to fall, because if 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:20.880 you see a regime falling as a result of a 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:23.120 popular uprising, that won't be good. 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:23.840 For those countries. 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:27.600 They aren't democracies and they don't want that precedent, so 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:29.800 they would like to see just Iran, you know, sort 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:31.600 of defangt toothless. 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:34.320 But I think the United States and. 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:38.360 Israel together care about the Iranian people and care about 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:45.560 run Asi, and that sets us apart. Now as to 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:49.880 what Israel do. Israel defend itself. Israel has immense capabilities. 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.040 We're talking about an air force. The number of actual 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:55.120 airplanes we have is classified, but it is in the 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:57.840 hundreds plus other capabilities. We also have submarines. 0:07:57.880 --> 0:07:58.320 We also have a. 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:02.080 Navy, and I measure that all of these assets will 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:04.160 be brought to bear. We will also have to spend 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:07.120 a tremendous amount of energy on missile defense because the 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:08.520 audience have these missiles. 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:09.480 They are quite large. 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:10.840 I think the last time I spoke on the Protram, 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.920 I talked about the warheads, which are about twenty times 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:16.360 the size of a rocket that has follow a rocket that. 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:17.400 Hamas will fire. 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:20.320 That our safe rooms can be of little utility of 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.200 protecting us in the face of these massive rockets. 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:24.680 They can take down a neighborhood, and we're going to 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.280 have to have quickly quickly to locate the launchers. 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:30.239 The point is Iran may have one thousand, five hundred 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:32.679 ballistic missiles left, but it doesn't have one thousand, five 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:35.960 hundred launchers. If we could knock out the launchers very 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:38.360 very quickly, those missiles will be useless. 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:41.160 So doctor Oran, I also have a friend in the 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:43.840 United States Navy who is deployed in the Gulf during 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.839 Round one with the Hooties, and it was an annoyance, 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:52.319 but this officer was not worried about attacks on carriers, 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:55.360 although I am and I thought, I've been repeating your 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:58.160 warning about the Sheffield ever since you made it to me. 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:00.440 It reminded me of nineteen eighty two about it with 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:05.120 brit Hume yesterday. I do believe that everything has to 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:08.720 go at once in order to decapitate the regime. And 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:11.600 I don't think it's a ninety million, ninety two million 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:14.400 person regime. I think it's one hundred and fifty thousand 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:18.600 members of the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Just finished 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.560 reading a book on them, Empire of Evil by Mark Soliski, 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:23.520 which came out four years ago, but the numbers are 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:27.040 probably still the same. They're ideological, they are corrupt. They 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.640 are completely glued to Hamani. They can't give up, and 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.040 that people will kill them. So it's one hundred and 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:34.480 fifty thousand people. You got another half million people in 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.960 the Iranian army, but they are not as ideologically fanatical 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:42.440 as that. Do you think what John Thune told me yesterday, 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:45.880 The objective of this ought to be regime change, not occupation. 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:48.080 Regime change. We have one minute, doctor worn. 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.079 Listen, I have to be very cross this year because 0:09:51.320 --> 0:09:51.840 we don't position. 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:54.160 There are by people already saying that Israel's pushing America 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:57.200 into this war, and it's for Israel's interests. It's all 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:00.400 thattayak who's doing And I don't want to push anybody 0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:03.720 into any war. But the question of regime change are 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:07.120 not regime change almost a mood point, because if the 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.840 Iranians theoretically were agreed to give up their nuclear program, 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:13.600 give up their missiles, and stop supporting his Balla Alhaja 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:16.920 Musk and al Kudz force which operates tear around the world, 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:19.120 then it's not the same regime anymore, is it. It's 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:23.040 basically a regime change, as if the regime is incapable 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:25.960 of making those changes. What alternative is there. It's kind 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:26.760 of a moot point. 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.560 I agree, and I also think I agree with britt 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:34.120 Hereman yesterday. Having built up this kind of force in 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:38.040 the Middle East, not to use it would significantly deteriorate 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:41.400 America's deternity. Doctor Orm. We'll talk again next week. I 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.920 appreciate the special appearance on the Thursday. Stand by me, 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:51.000 Welcome back America. Open source Intel reporting at this hour, 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:53.960 the US air lift activity for the Iran operation has 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:57.680 hit at least one hundred and two C seventeen and 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:02.360 C five flights into Sentcom as of February five. That 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:06.240 includes fifty eight arrivals at our air base in Jordan, 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:11.200 thirteen arrivals at our air base and cut Her, twelve 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:15.239 arrivals at our air base in Saudi Arabia, nine arrivals 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:19.760 at Diego Garcia, which is a British Indian ocean territory 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:21.920 which does have quite a lot of our stuff there. 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:27.720 I didn't think that the Iranians had a missile capable 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.240 of getting to Diego Garcia, but no chances of being 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:36.920 taken there. Kuwait seven arrivals, Bahrain three arrivals. I started 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:40.600 thinking that's low and pending flights twelve and I would 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:43.160 guess they're going to go to Bahrain. So that is 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:47.200 a build up without precedent. I think bigger than the 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:52.040 one before midnight hammer by a lot. And Prime Minister 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:58.240 Netanyahu warned his Knesset today that the conditions for the 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:01.480 collapse of the regime are mounting, and I do think 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:08.240 that is a partial explanation for the schizophrenic activity coming 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:14.880 out of Iran. Some members of the regime, senior military members, spokespeople, 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:19.400 are attempting to intimidate the United States via their statements, 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:22.040 and they're showing of pictures of missiles and stuff like that, 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:28.720 pronouncements that are poking the bear, and then actions by 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:34.160 Iran to actually poke the bear, like attacking the Abraham 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:37.840 Lincoln with a drone. They could do drone swarms, they 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:40.400 could put up a lot of drones, but the Lincoln 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:43.760 can move, and I'm not sure their drones are that good. 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:47.319 But all of our ships will not be sitting around 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:51.400 waiting for a drone to find it. The airbases can't move, 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:57.400 which is why the THAD Theater Altitude Deployment System and 0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:02.480 the Patriot missiles are being deployed to our stationary basis 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:07.160 they have a GPS. Very very likely that America will 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.920 be hit hard, not continental the United States, but our 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.000 bases and our people at sea and on land in 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:17.640 the region if this begins, and I think it's going 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:19.480 to begin, because I don't believe the Iranians are going 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:22.200 to give up anything that they have. They have to capitulate. Basically, 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:25.560 if they give up what they has been demanded of them, 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:29.040 they will have to capitulate. I am afraid that the 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:33.320 Special Envoy is invested in envoying, but mister Widcoff has 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.800 pulled off a lot thus far this year, so hopefully 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:38.720 he will continue to do so. We'll talk with Jim 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:41.880 Tallan after the break. Donald Trump at the prayer Bakfast 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.600 today Cut number twenty. 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:48.960 Under the Trump administration was standing strongly behind the Americans 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:53.240 of faith, stopping the attacks on our values, our traditions, 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:54.760 defending religious liberty. 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:56.280 Cut number twenty two. 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:02.840 The Department of Justice recently charged individuals from for storming 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:06.400 a church in Minnesota during a worship service and trampling 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:08.280 on Americans First Amendment rights. 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:09.120 I watched that. 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:11.600 Type and you know that was violent. 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:16.120 I saw the people sitting there Pam and they were scared. 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.800 They were well, some were scared and some were holding 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.560 up their hands like I believe in God. 0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:24.480 But they were violent people. 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:30.960 Screaming your parents and Nazis. Your parents had Nazis. The 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.600 people are sitting and I thought the minister was great, 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:36.680 he was so calm and good. 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:38.160 They's screaming at him. 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:39.520 Terrible right in the middle of. 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:40.200 A church service. 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:42.560 It's got to be illegal. I mean, Pam is doing it. 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:44.560 I'm not doing it, but Pam is doing it. And 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.840 I'll tell you people are happy with the job that's 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:49.480 taking place because they're bad people. 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:50.440 They're bad people. 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:53.560 You have on one Trumpeter in particular that just I 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:54.680 watched his performance. 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:55.400 It was terrible. 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:57.360 They tried and use freemo, repressed. 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.120 And alls to get out of a criminal event. 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.680 They were. That was a horrible thing to witness. And 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:05.240 if we allowed that to go, and you wouldn't, You 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:06.360 wouldn't be able to have a church. 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:08.360 No, everybody would be afraid to go to church. 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.240 He is not wrong about that. Coming up, Senator Jim 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.400 Talent from a senator from the very jointing to talk 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:20.920 about Iran. Stay tuned, Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewett, 0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:23.560 joined by a former United States Senator, Jim Talent, who's 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:25.479 on the Reague Institute Center for Security. 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:26.080 Uh. 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:29.640 Center, Talent, your assessment of what's going on with Iran? 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:33.160 I think the odds that we're going to strikech are 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:37.000 very very high. You uh, there's You've been talking all 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.320 day about the three things that we want. No nukes, 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:45.800 no support for the proxies, and no ballistic missiles. Well, 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:49.480 the new program has pretty much gone. Their economies collapsed. 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.560 I can't imagine they're sending much money to Hesbalaut, but 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:56.240 they still have a substantial ballistic missile arsenal. So the 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:59.360 big win for the administration is if we get some 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:05.600 kind of regime realignment or recalibration, if somebody wearing a 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:10.040 military cap takes over from Homine and decides to play 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.680 ball with us. But if they don't, we're going to 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:15.360 go after the ballistic missiles directly. That's what I think 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:18.800 is going to happen. And you know the issue is 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:22.680 when your guess is as good as mine, they're certainly 0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:24.280 getting ready now. 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:28.600 Center Talent at the Regan Institute Center for Peace through Strength. 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:32.760 It believes in muscular foreign policy. But we haven't seen 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:35.520 a build up like this since the invasion of Iraq 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:39.520 and two carrier groups, all of these fads and patriots, 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:42.480 no boots on the ground planned and not that we 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:45.080 know of, and certainly doesn't look that way. Are you 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:49.280 still nevertheless worried about American casualties at our bases and 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:49.960 on our ships? 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:52.040 You always worry you. 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:55.280 I remember as a kid listening to your old boss, 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.480 Dick Nixon talking about the Vietnam War and how much 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:02.560 casualties it he had gone down, but he said, you know, 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:04.160 one casualty's won too many. 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:06.440 So and we all feel that way. 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:11.560 But that's why we have send coom planners, Admiral Cooper, 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:14.680 That's why we have the Joint Staff under General Kine, 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:17.600 That's why we have the Undersecretariat for Policy in the 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:21.480 Department of Defense, you know, to prepare to advise the 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:24.200 President whether there's something like this can be done within 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:27.680 an acceptable margin of risk. And I think clearly they've 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:30.040 told them that they can, that they can do it. 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:33.240 And my experience through the years is that when we're 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:36.520 in a basically non competitive environment in the sense that 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:41.280 the air defenses have not proven effective and we're going 0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:44.040 up against a non peer competitor, and we have time 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.679 to build up. We're very good at this, so I 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.320 have a fairly high confidence level. But of course you're 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:54.679 gonna worry until it's over, and nobody can guarantee there 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:57.920 won't be any losses. I mean, that's just not possible. 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:01.520 But these are substantial Americans secure already interests that we 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:05.480 can gain by this operation, and I think the President's 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:07.239 decided he's going to do it if we don't get 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:08.320 a diplomatic solution. 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:09.240 I think he's right. 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.520 Ambassador ORNs twice in a week reminded me of the 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.520 British ship the Sheffield, which was hit by an Exocet 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:19.359 missile in the Falklands conflict in nineteen eighty two. It 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:21.800 was a lucky hit, but it killed a lot of 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:25.399 British sailors anyway and sunk the ship. What is the 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.480 threat to the Lincoln or any of the destroyers or 0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:29.160 support ships, do you think. 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:33.760 Well, it's obviously the anti ship crews and ballistic missiles, 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.000 but we know about that. I mean, those ships have 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:41.560 very sophisticated air defense systems. We're going to take out 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:44.600 the launchers as quickly as we can. They're going to 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:48.800 try and achieve tactical surprise. And with all due respect 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.520 to our allies, the Brits, you know, our navy, which 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:55.160 and they had a much better navy in nineteen eighty two, 0:18:56.280 --> 0:19:00.159 but nowhere near even relatively speaking, as good as ours now. 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:05.240 So this is why you people who all my former 0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:08.199 colleagues and colleagues who want to be president, these are 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:11.640 the kind of decisions you got to make. I think 0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:13.840 it's time to do this. I think I think the 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:18.360 administration is determined to eliminate the Iranian threat, which has 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:21.760 been with us for fifty years. It's necessary to do 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:25.120 that to achieve our vital national interest in the Middle East. 0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:30.720 Read the National Security Strategy, page five, and I think 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:33.320 I think the President is determined, and we got the 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:36.040 best guys and gals in the world, and if we 0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:37.879 have to do it, I think will be successful. 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:41.240 Now. Britta Hume was my guest yesterday, Jim, and he said, 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:45.040 and after many years of watching presidents, if a president 0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:48.680 leans this far forward as President Trump has, if nothing happens, 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:51.920 his deterrence is injured. Do you agree with him? 0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:56.000 Yes, oh, absolutely, And the president knows that. I mean, 0:19:56.520 --> 0:19:59.520 that's why he would not have said this as often 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:03.000 as he's at it if he did not intend to 0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:08.280 order a strike in the event the diplomatic channels fail, 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:13.080 And I'm not quite as down on that as some 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:16.240 other people are. I think part of this may be 0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:20.160 to pressure this regime. Well, there's no question the president's 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:23.400 got leverage because he's in this case, it's military leverage, 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:26.399 and he's increasing the pressure on the regime, which is 0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:29.040 one reason I think why this is going on for weeks. 0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:33.280 Imagine what that's like in their bunkers view, especially since 0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:35.480 so many of their people have already been taken out. 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:38.680 And I know again there's concern about what they might 0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:43.040 do in response, but you I bet anything, we're holding 0:20:43.080 --> 0:20:46.160 secondary deterrence in reserve. In other words, if they respond 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:49.679 and attack Americans, they know we can come back with 0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:53.440 even more. And what about the Israelis. If they don't 0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:55.800 go in in the first wave, they may go in 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:59.439 in the second. So you know, I'd much rather be 0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:01.480 on our side making these decisions. 0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:03.560 Then on the Mulla side. 0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:06.280 I'm going to talk with you about timing after the break, 0:21:06.920 --> 0:21:11.199 But can you run through what you would assess the 0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:14.240 response to an actual hit on a carrier or a 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.520 destroyer that took a lot of sailors lives. 0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:19.760 Well, we go in with everything then, and that would 0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:24.720 probably trigger an attack on directly on the Iranian economy. 0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:27.960 You've talked about Cark Island and I can't pronounce it either, 0:21:28.160 --> 0:21:31.639 by the way, the way the Iranians do. You've talked 0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:35.000 about that, I mean at that point, and again the 0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:38.000 president's warned that about that, and we've seen how sensitive 0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:41.160 he's been in the past to taking American casualties. 0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:43.360 So we're going very heavy then. 0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:47.720 You know, the power of an aircraft carrier task force, 0:21:47.800 --> 0:21:52.160 not to mention the submarines, not to mention the long 0:21:52.280 --> 0:21:54.680 range precision strike aircraft. 0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:55.800 We've got the V two's. 0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:00.679 If we have targets that don't have effect of anti 0:22:00.760 --> 0:22:02.760 air defenses, they're just helpless. 0:22:02.840 --> 0:22:05.239 You I'm doing my math in my head. And if 0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:09.159 the Israeli Air Force gets involved, it's five hundred bomb 0:22:09.200 --> 0:22:15.359 delivering precision munitions every cycle from the ship to the 0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:17.560 sea and from the Israeli Air Force. But it's an 0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:19.760 incredible amount of firepower. 0:22:21.000 --> 0:22:25.760 It will turn, you know, eight hundred sorties into several 0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:32.320 thousand sorties and just be absolutely devastating. And so again, 0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:37.840 they've got to be thinking about that too, before they unleash, 0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:39.720 you know, hundreds of missiles at US. 0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:41.840 Stand by Cenator Town. I'm going to ask you about 0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:44.640 timing when we come back to the u ushef stay 0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:50.280 turned in America. Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett, Centertor 0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:51.960 of Talent, is still with me because I wanted to 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:54.040 talk to him about the window in which he believes 0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:57.640 battle with Iran will begin. What's your estimate, Center of Talent. 0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:00.760 Well, let's look at the reasons for the delay. I 0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:01.639 think there were three. 0:23:01.920 --> 0:23:04.920 One of them is so we could build up that's 0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:07.639 got to be near completion now you've been tracking the 0:23:07.680 --> 0:23:09.919 forces that have been coming into the region. The second 0:23:10.080 --> 0:23:14.480 was diplomatic because, as doctor Warren said, our allies and 0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:17.560 partners want all the things we want with their round, 0:23:17.760 --> 0:23:21.960 but the Gulf States in particular, probably nbs IS, they're 0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:26.920 nervous about whether a military conflict will destabilize the region. 0:23:26.960 --> 0:23:28.920 And I think the third reason is the president is 0:23:29.680 --> 0:23:33.000 letting the regime sweat. I mean, he's seeing that they've 0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:34.320 been pushed to the edge. 0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:41.800 We locked you there, Jim, and we don't know. 0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:45.640 Yeah, I don't know how much. 0:23:45.680 --> 0:23:46.800 You. 0:23:47.080 --> 0:23:50.480 Yeah, they're pushed to the edge and we're waiting to 0:23:50.520 --> 0:23:53.240 see if they'll break. I mean, as I said, they're 0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:55.560 the ones who are sweating at this point. Yeah, we're 0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:58.919 concerned about our servicemen and women, but we've done this 0:23:59.000 --> 0:24:01.840 kind of thing before, So I think those are the reasons. 0:24:01.920 --> 0:24:04.919 And I think once we get the force package in place, 0:24:05.440 --> 0:24:06.800 it could happen at any time. 0:24:07.640 --> 0:24:09.919 And do you think the present beat us to the 0:24:09.960 --> 0:24:12.320 punch because they have been known to go first before. 0:24:13.880 --> 0:24:16.480 Well, to me, the two questions about this you other 0:24:16.520 --> 0:24:20.200 than timing, and I have little doubt that the administration 0:24:20.280 --> 0:24:23.160 will seek to engineer a tactical surprise, which they did 0:24:23.200 --> 0:24:25.840 with Midnight Hammer. They'll do that again. To me, the 0:24:25.880 --> 0:24:29.040 two questions with this are are the Israelis going to 0:24:29.160 --> 0:24:32.760 join in initially with us? They certainly will if Iron 0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:36.200 attacks them in response. And then the second is are 0:24:36.240 --> 0:24:40.240 we going to attempt to decapitate the highest levels of 0:24:40.320 --> 0:24:46.159 leadership Omane, the Mullahs, the IRG commanders, I mean a 0:24:46.200 --> 0:24:48.399 lot of them have already been killed. Are we going 0:24:48.480 --> 0:24:50.080 to do that or are we going to hold that 0:24:50.280 --> 0:24:55.320 back to use for secondary deterrence? Those are tactical questions, 0:24:55.359 --> 0:24:58.600 as is timing, and you unless you're read into these 0:24:58.600 --> 0:25:02.439 briefings every day, I mean, you just don't know. But 0:25:02.640 --> 0:25:05.480 I think they'll they'll try and engineer a tactical surprise. 0:25:05.560 --> 0:25:07.160 It's going to be interesting to see how they try 0:25:07.200 --> 0:25:07.560 and do it. 0:25:07.800 --> 0:25:11.840 Maybe the discombobulator will be deployed. Jim Talent, do you 0:25:11.840 --> 0:25:13.360 think that's an ends. 0:25:15.080 --> 0:25:15.439 Could be? 0:25:15.560 --> 0:25:18.880 We have a lot of ways of breaking the kill chain, 0:25:19.200 --> 0:25:21.719 and the Navy is particularly good at it and always 0:25:21.760 --> 0:25:26.240 has been electronic countermeasures, jamming the radar. I mean, there's 0:25:26.359 --> 0:25:30.000 there's all kinds of things. We're good at that and 0:25:30.880 --> 0:25:32.639 which is one of the reasons we haven't had the 0:25:32.720 --> 0:25:37.320 kind of disaster you're talking about. So again, it's it's 0:25:37.400 --> 0:25:39.439 up to the president to decide whether we can do 0:25:39.520 --> 0:25:41.400 this within an acceptable margin of risk. 0:25:41.480 --> 0:25:42.360 But I think. 0:25:42.200 --> 0:25:45.640 Clearly he has decided, and I would be surprised if 0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:48.720 that's if that's not a well founded decision. 0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:50.760 Center Jim Talent, always good to talk to you. 0:25:50.840 --> 0:25:57.880 Following or fencing, we have seen the Iranian leadership wiring 0:25:57.920 --> 0:26:02.480 money out of the country. So the rats are leaving 0:26:02.520 --> 0:26:05.360 the ship and that is a good sign that they 0:26:05.640 --> 0:26:06.920 know the end may be near. 0:26:08.080 --> 0:26:10.560 Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh hewittt that with Treasury 0:26:10.600 --> 0:26:14.800 Secretary Scott Besson on what the molocracy is doing right now. 0:26:14.840 --> 0:26:18.080 I'm joined by Noah Rothman, senior writer at National Review. 0:26:18.640 --> 0:26:21.800 No I just talked to Ambassador Oran, who believes they 0:26:22.040 --> 0:26:26.160 Iranians attempted to bake the United States into striking too 0:26:26.240 --> 0:26:29.040 soon yesterday or this week with the attack on the 0:26:29.080 --> 0:26:31.200 Lincoln by the drone and the attempt to seize the 0:26:31.240 --> 0:26:34.560 oil ship. They took two cargo ships today or two 0:26:34.600 --> 0:26:37.000 freighters today? What do you think? What's your assessment of 0:26:37.000 --> 0:26:37.960 what's going on over there. 0:26:39.560 --> 0:26:42.320 So that was a very interesting interview with Ambassador Oran. 0:26:42.359 --> 0:26:44.359 I hope your listeners caught it. That they didn't, they 0:26:44.400 --> 0:26:47.920 should catch up with it. He painted a pretty dire situation, 0:26:48.160 --> 0:26:52.240 very dire scenario, and it concerns me. It's the worst 0:26:52.240 --> 0:26:56.160 case scenario, and we've talked about it previously, the notion 0:26:56.240 --> 0:26:59.359 that the Iranian military or the IRGC will throw everything 0:26:59.400 --> 0:27:02.920 they can at US assets, particularly naval assets, but also 0:27:02.960 --> 0:27:06.560 its bases and its partner bases around the region, and 0:27:06.640 --> 0:27:08.840 it would be a significant challenge. They would attempt to 0:27:09.720 --> 0:27:13.280 in my view, engineer sinking of a US warship, but 0:27:13.320 --> 0:27:15.280 that would require a lot of assets. Now here's the 0:27:15.320 --> 0:27:18.480 other situation scenario rather that the ambassador did not bring up. 0:27:19.840 --> 0:27:24.120 Is that that situation, that scenario where Iran looses all 0:27:24.160 --> 0:27:28.760 its munitions, all its ordinance, sacrifices future deterrent capability. This 0:27:28.800 --> 0:27:31.359 is a regime that is hyper focused on survival. It 0:27:31.359 --> 0:27:35.400 has a long time horizon. It is not necessarily going 0:27:35.440 --> 0:27:38.800 to sacrifice all its missiles, all its drones in a 0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:40.680 one off strike because it won't have them to deter 0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:43.760 future aggression against future adversaries. We can anticipate that a 0:27:43.880 --> 0:27:47.840 US operation will begin with, as Ambassador orre And said, 0:27:48.000 --> 0:27:51.639 the striking of missile launch facilities and production facilities. So 0:27:51.680 --> 0:27:56.600 Iran can be certain that its capabilities will be damaged 0:27:56.720 --> 0:27:58.720 for the foreseeable future. It will take a long time 0:27:58.760 --> 0:28:01.280 to spin up those productions facilities. So what it's got 0:28:01.320 --> 0:28:02.879 is what it's got, and if it uses them, it 0:28:02.920 --> 0:28:05.119 won't have them in the future. The turn capability is 0:28:05.119 --> 0:28:07.560 something this regime would like to preserve, so we can't 0:28:07.640 --> 0:28:10.479 rule out the prospect of a calibrated response akin to 0:28:10.520 --> 0:28:14.240 what it marshaled after the operation that destroyed its nuclear 0:28:14.240 --> 0:28:15.240 facilities in June. 0:28:15.640 --> 0:28:21.920 Yeah. No, the Iranians demonstrated in two thousand and twenty 0:28:22.320 --> 0:28:25.400 when President Trump ordered Sillimani to be killed, that they 0:28:25.440 --> 0:28:28.879 can hit a United States base. They hit Ali Sad 0:28:29.000 --> 0:28:34.920 with array of ballistic missiles, and so they if there's 0:28:34.960 --> 0:28:37.760 a GPS attached, we know they can hit it. Because 0:28:37.760 --> 0:28:40.920 they hit Ali Sad. They injured a few American soldiers 0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:43.000 that were left on the base, but we had warning 0:28:43.040 --> 0:28:46.160 of it and we evacuated beforehand. What would be the 0:28:46.200 --> 0:28:52.160 response if they actually did a serious casualty figure on America, 0:28:52.280 --> 0:28:55.719 much less taking out a carrier, which is five thousand people, 0:28:55.760 --> 0:28:58.520 which is the nightmare scenario. What do you think the 0:28:58.600 --> 0:28:59.960 response from America would be. 0:29:01.600 --> 0:29:05.440 Well, the nightmare scenario that you just discussed would require 0:29:06.080 --> 0:29:10.560 a very significant response, a response that would involve, basis 0:29:10.840 --> 0:29:14.080 in the United States sending B twos with mops and 0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:17.920 five thousand pounds bombs to attack regime targets, to attack 0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:21.080 military targets as well as IRGC targets. We would make 0:29:21.120 --> 0:29:22.960 an example of the Iranian nation. 0:29:23.720 --> 0:29:24.280 That is not. 0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:26.680 Because we would want to communicate to our adversaries in 0:29:26.680 --> 0:29:29.560 Beijing and Moscow. What happens if you attack a carrier 0:29:29.960 --> 0:29:32.880 not because of iron. That is the worst case scenario. 0:29:32.960 --> 0:29:37.480 That's almost inconceivably bad for American prestige and American determ capabilities. 0:29:37.680 --> 0:29:42.320 But a smaller response is possible to think about. And 0:29:42.400 --> 0:29:44.960 the notion that the United States will not experience casualties 0:29:45.040 --> 0:29:48.080 or fatalities in that response is not something you could 0:29:48.120 --> 0:29:52.040 rule out. And how would Trump administration response, I think 0:29:52.080 --> 0:29:55.520 that depends on how the American public response. Would the 0:29:55.520 --> 0:29:59.080 American public regard this as an operation of choice, not 0:29:59.160 --> 0:30:02.760 of military, an ass and therefore something we invited on ourselves, 0:30:03.160 --> 0:30:05.760 or do they think it's an absolute imperative to get 0:30:05.840 --> 0:30:07.840 rid of this regime by whatever means are necessary and 0:30:07.880 --> 0:30:09.800 whatever comes after it is a good. 0:30:09.680 --> 0:30:10.440 Problem to have. 0:30:11.080 --> 0:30:15.400 I hope the American public would respond with the latter assumption. 0:30:15.600 --> 0:30:18.160 But the President needs to make this case to the nation. 0:30:18.560 --> 0:30:21.360 President needs to enlist the public in this project because 0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:23.360 it is a national project. And the sooner he comes 0:30:23.400 --> 0:30:25.640 before the public and says why we're doing this, the better. 0:30:25.960 --> 0:30:29.760 I agree with that, by the way, because the first 0:30:30.000 --> 0:30:32.880 part of that case is to announce how many people 0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:35.720 we think they murdered. I think it's over thirty thousand 0:30:36.320 --> 0:30:39.400 that hasn't sunk in Noah, and I don't know that 0:30:39.440 --> 0:30:42.480 the American people have their arms around that yet. That 0:30:42.600 --> 0:30:46.400 this regime is capable of murdering thirty thousand or more 0:30:46.480 --> 0:30:49.800 of its own citizens in forty eight hours, and that therefore, 0:30:49.840 --> 0:30:52.200 if they ever got a nuclear weapon or of ICBM 0:30:52.240 --> 0:30:54.000 that could hit the United States with a dirty bomb 0:30:54.080 --> 0:30:57.640 or whatever, they would do it. There's just nothing they wouldn't. 0:30:57.280 --> 0:31:01.800 Do, absolutely, And that is so to say the scale 0:31:01.840 --> 0:31:06.800 of the bloodshed, because it communicates to the public how 0:31:06.840 --> 0:31:11.680 this regime views its own survival. It compelled its own 0:31:11.720 --> 0:31:15.600 security forces to sign their death warrants with the execution 0:31:15.920 --> 0:31:19.800 of their neighbors in the streets in January. This regime 0:31:19.960 --> 0:31:25.120 regards survival, its own survival, their personal survival, as an imperative, 0:31:25.480 --> 0:31:28.960 and nothing else compares, including the survival of the citizens 0:31:29.000 --> 0:31:32.960 to which it is ostensibly dedicated. There's nothing that it 0:31:33.000 --> 0:31:37.320 wouldn't do in order to preserve its own stability, its 0:31:37.360 --> 0:31:40.480 own existence, and that does mean attacking the United States 0:31:40.480 --> 0:31:43.360 with whatever weapons it has available, attacking the United States 0:31:43.360 --> 0:31:47.360 on its own soil engineering, assassination campaigns, on American soil, 0:31:47.440 --> 0:31:50.400 killing Americans by scores. That is what this regime does, 0:31:50.400 --> 0:31:53.000 and it will not shy away from doing that. And 0:31:53.280 --> 0:31:55.720 if it has no legitimacy at home, it has no 0:31:55.880 --> 0:32:00.800 mechanism to rein it in. There's no domestic trigger that 0:32:00.880 --> 0:32:04.200 the Iranian people can pull to impose some circumspection on 0:32:04.240 --> 0:32:08.120 this regime. It is moderated and guided purely by the 0:32:09.160 --> 0:32:13.600 Islamic Republic's Supreme leader's own sense of morality, and we've 0:32:13.600 --> 0:32:16.640 not seen very much of that. It is really a 0:32:16.680 --> 0:32:20.440 force that is untethered to anything beyond what this very 0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:22.960 cloistered group of clerics is telling themselves. 0:32:23.000 --> 0:32:26.760 It's a very dangerous regime. It's a twelfth mm End 0:32:26.800 --> 0:32:30.640 Times regime, and I would encourage anyone to read deep 0:32:30.680 --> 0:32:33.000 on this. Noah, you did post on your ex account 0:32:33.520 --> 0:32:36.720 a picture of our base encatter that shows the deployment 0:32:36.760 --> 0:32:39.240 of Patriot missiles over the last three weeks. I think 0:32:39.280 --> 0:32:42.640 that explains why President Trump hasn't moved yet. And the 0:32:42.720 --> 0:32:45.320 dispatch of the George H. W. Bush carrier tells me 0:32:45.360 --> 0:32:49.280 the same that tomorrow's meeting may or may not produce 0:32:49.320 --> 0:32:51.240 a second meeting, But I don't think it matters in 0:32:51.280 --> 0:32:55.240 the end. You share my fatalism about this, Oh I do. 0:32:55.400 --> 0:32:57.440 Yeah, we gave a little bit, and I kind of 0:32:57.440 --> 0:33:00.440 wish we hadn't, But I understand why. The idea being 0:33:00.520 --> 0:33:03.880 to keep the Arab States on board with the diplomatic track. 0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:07.840 But we're too far apart. We are talking about the 0:33:07.880 --> 0:33:11.280 nuclear program, which is under several tons of lightly irradiated rubble, 0:33:11.280 --> 0:33:13.040 it's not really worth talking about. But we are also 0:33:13.040 --> 0:33:16.560 talking about the ballistic missile program and the proxy terrorist groups. 0:33:16.600 --> 0:33:18.440 The problem is that we want those things to go 0:33:18.480 --> 0:33:21.920 away forever, and the regime wants them to exist forever 0:33:21.960 --> 0:33:24.480 because they regard them as essential to their own survival. 0:33:24.520 --> 0:33:26.840 So we're just too far apart to meet in the middle. 0:33:27.280 --> 0:33:31.280 But Ambassador Orang's point is extremely important that the Arab 0:33:31.320 --> 0:33:34.080 States are not democracies. They do not necessarily want to 0:33:34.120 --> 0:33:37.360 see this regime fall from popular pressure. This is not 0:33:37.480 --> 0:33:39.800 like the Arab Spring. We're talking about some conditions that 0:33:39.800 --> 0:33:42.640 are sue generas very unique to Iran, so they have 0:33:42.680 --> 0:33:44.360 a little bit less to be worried about in Riad, 0:33:44.360 --> 0:33:47.080 although they should be worried about their own people. But 0:33:47.200 --> 0:33:49.320 it is important for us to be able to communicate 0:33:49.320 --> 0:33:51.760 and convey that what we want to see happen to 0:33:51.760 --> 0:33:55.600 the Islamic Republic is an implosion, not an explosion, and 0:33:55.680 --> 0:33:59.080 that will require sustained US power and presence in the 0:33:59.120 --> 0:34:03.680 region for the foreseeable future and a soft landing space 0:34:03.800 --> 0:34:06.560 for this regime elements of it that are willing to 0:34:07.000 --> 0:34:11.200 either exile themselves or to work with a successor government, 0:34:11.520 --> 0:34:14.200 because we do not want to see the collapse of 0:34:14.200 --> 0:34:17.720 this regime into civil war and chaos and disunion, because 0:34:17.760 --> 0:34:19.640 our partners abroad do not want. 0:34:19.520 --> 0:34:19.960 To see that. 0:34:19.960 --> 0:34:22.320 That might be distasteful, but it's real politique that we 0:34:22.360 --> 0:34:23.160 will have to consider. 0:34:23.600 --> 0:34:26.440 Well said as always, nosc Rothman. Follow him on x 0:34:26.440 --> 0:34:30.640 from National Review. Nosc Rothman on Welcome Back in America. 0:34:30.719 --> 0:34:34.160 I'm juq and Eliana Johnson is the editor in chief 0:34:34.200 --> 0:34:36.720 of the Washington Free Beacon. You can follow at Eleian 0:34:36.800 --> 0:34:40.240 at y Johnson on AX Freebeacon dot com. She's also 0:34:40.600 --> 0:34:44.120 almost daily contribute to the commentary podcast Eleana. I haven't 0:34:44.120 --> 0:34:47.880 listened to the commentary podcast from this morning, but yesterday 0:34:48.120 --> 0:34:50.799 just the last little bit was devoted to what's going 0:34:50.840 --> 0:34:54.000 on in Iran. I opened the program with Ambassador or 0:34:54.040 --> 0:34:57.880 In today who says, be very very very sure you 0:34:57.920 --> 0:34:59.520 know what you're getting into, because this is going to 0:34:59.520 --> 0:35:02.239 be very ugly if we get into a shooting match 0:35:02.239 --> 0:35:03.759 with Iran. What do you think about that? 0:35:06.640 --> 0:35:08.920 I think that's right, and I think the President's aware 0:35:09.040 --> 0:35:11.480 that this is a risky undertaking, which is part of 0:35:11.520 --> 0:35:14.000 the reason he's taking his time. We did devote quite 0:35:14.000 --> 0:35:16.520 a bit of time to talking about Iran today and 0:35:16.600 --> 0:35:20.560 actually had a debate about whether the President wants to 0:35:20.640 --> 0:35:23.920 engage in diplomacy as an off ramp and is really 0:35:23.960 --> 0:35:28.279 reluctant to do something, and whether the Iranians, in harassing 0:35:28.360 --> 0:35:31.799 the USS Abraham Lincoln with a drone, we're trying to, 0:35:32.200 --> 0:35:36.080 as the ambassador suggested, force the US to act by 0:35:36.160 --> 0:35:41.160 taunting the president before it's good and ready. So I'm 0:35:41.200 --> 0:35:43.480 not sure which one of these two avenues. I actually 0:35:43.640 --> 0:35:47.160 argued the second that I think the President is reluctant 0:35:47.160 --> 0:35:50.319 to act, but will end up choosing action because it's 0:35:50.320 --> 0:35:55.439 the least worst option that he's presented with. But many 0:35:55.520 --> 0:36:00.800 of my colleagues believed that the Iranian actions in sending 0:36:00.880 --> 0:36:05.640 a drone over the USS Abraham Lincoln were intended to 0:36:05.760 --> 0:36:09.879 force US action before they're ready because they know this 0:36:09.960 --> 0:36:12.200 is going to be quite messy. 0:36:12.200 --> 0:36:14.160 As the ambassador suggested, Well. 0:36:13.920 --> 0:36:16.680 That's my take is that President Trump's going to go 0:36:16.719 --> 0:36:18.560 when he wants to go, and that he's got a 0:36:18.560 --> 0:36:22.040 big window. He tried to prevent a masker by posting 0:36:22.040 --> 0:36:24.560 about it, but he couldn't. And any regime that will 0:36:24.640 --> 0:36:27.680 kill thirty thousand of its own people in forty eight hours, 0:36:27.760 --> 0:36:30.759 we cannot underestimate whatever they're doing. And they're probably lying 0:36:30.840 --> 0:36:33.520 up their ducks as well. But I've talked to naval 0:36:33.520 --> 0:36:36.680 officers and I believe that they are confident in their 0:36:36.719 --> 0:36:40.239 ability to quickly suppress fire. But that doesn't mean that 0:36:40.320 --> 0:36:42.799 a ship doesn't get blown up. Because the Sheffield in 0:36:42.880 --> 0:36:45.719 the Falklands was a lucky shot from Argentina with an 0:36:45.840 --> 0:36:48.680 aging EXO set. We know that the Iranians, when they 0:36:48.719 --> 0:36:51.040 have a GPS can hit the GPS. They hit the 0:36:51.080 --> 0:36:54.920 Alis Sad base after Solimani was killed. What do you 0:36:54.960 --> 0:36:56.960 think do you think Americans are ready for this? 0:36:59.800 --> 0:37:03.239 Well, I heard Noah Rothman say that President Trump needs 0:37:03.280 --> 0:37:05.759 to make the case to the American people. I think 0:37:05.760 --> 0:37:09.200 it's I think that's absolutely true, because I think there 0:37:09.200 --> 0:37:12.319 are plenty of elements of the president's own base that 0:37:12.360 --> 0:37:14.440 are skeptical of this, and I think it's worth speaking 0:37:14.480 --> 0:37:16.759 to them, as well as the Americans who aren't a 0:37:16.760 --> 0:37:20.919 member of the president's party and attempting to persuade here 0:37:20.920 --> 0:37:23.880 about why this is in the American interest. I also 0:37:23.920 --> 0:37:27.680 think he should speak to the fact that in diplomacy, 0:37:28.200 --> 0:37:32.200 in action is action. Hovering in the background of all 0:37:32.239 --> 0:37:38.680 of this are the degradation of American credibility that Barack 0:37:38.719 --> 0:37:43.680 Obama achieved by failing to act in Syria in twenty thirteen, 0:37:44.000 --> 0:37:47.960 and that the Biden administration eroded over his four years. 0:37:48.120 --> 0:37:52.400 And I think President Trump knows as his people prepare 0:37:52.440 --> 0:37:55.279 to meet in Oman and negotiate with the Iranians, that 0:37:55.320 --> 0:37:58.720 there's no such thing as real, honest negotiations with these people, 0:37:59.040 --> 0:38:01.799 and that he does not want he tore up the 0:38:01.840 --> 0:38:05.319 first nuclear deal, but that he does not want to 0:38:05.440 --> 0:38:08.600 be the second coming of Barack Obama. He's worked quite 0:38:08.600 --> 0:38:12.000 hard to restore American credibility, and that's hovering in the 0:38:12.000 --> 0:38:15.200 background here. No action is a deliberate choice in an action, 0:38:15.320 --> 0:38:16.680 and I think he should speak to that. 0:38:16.880 --> 0:38:20.120 And no action would be the destruction of the deterrent 0:38:20.200 --> 0:38:23.240 that he's rebuilt, and it was destroyed by the JCPOA, 0:38:23.360 --> 0:38:26.960 it was destroyed by the Redliner Ratier, it was permanently 0:38:27.080 --> 0:38:32.160 damaged by Joe Biden's catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. But I 0:38:32.200 --> 0:38:35.080 also think even if those had not happened, when a 0:38:35.160 --> 0:38:37.960 massacre on the scale happens the United States, it's a 0:38:38.000 --> 0:38:41.440 non nuclear power. The United States represents the West. It 0:38:41.520 --> 0:38:44.799 really can't just not notice it. Eleon, and they'd killed 0:38:44.840 --> 0:38:48.480 Americans for twenty for forty seven years, they cannot not 0:38:48.840 --> 0:38:51.600 pretend that they're trying to kill us. Now. 0:38:54.360 --> 0:38:57.400 Well, he the president, chose to speak up when Ron 0:38:57.600 --> 0:39:00.000 was killing its people, which is why I think his crediblit, 0:39:00.160 --> 0:39:03.560 he's on the line here when he speaks, if and 0:39:03.600 --> 0:39:06.359 when he speaks to the American people, I really do 0:39:06.400 --> 0:39:08.239 think he should speak more to the fact that this 0:39:08.400 --> 0:39:11.600 is a regime that for the past fifty years, you know, 0:39:11.640 --> 0:39:14.800 since nineteen seventy nine, how many, yeah, fifty plus years, 0:39:14.840 --> 0:39:19.440 for the past half century plus, has devoted itself wholly 0:39:19.560 --> 0:39:23.880 and entirely to murdering Americans, has American blood on its hands, 0:39:24.200 --> 0:39:29.240 and that weakening the external threat of Iran every action 0:39:29.320 --> 0:39:32.800 we take aimed at its nuclear ballistic or its support 0:39:32.880 --> 0:39:37.839 for its terrorist proxies, itself weakens and degrades the internal 0:39:37.920 --> 0:39:40.640 standing of the regime, because that is what this regime 0:39:40.880 --> 0:39:41.480 is now. 0:39:41.520 --> 0:39:44.520 One thing that has to be done and hasn't been 0:39:44.520 --> 0:39:47.760 done yet. It was done by President George HW. Bush 0:39:47.800 --> 0:39:51.840 before Desert Storm. It was done before George W. Bush 0:39:51.920 --> 0:39:54.960 ordered the invasion in Afghanistan and then the invasion of Iraq, 0:39:55.000 --> 0:39:57.720 which was to prepare the Americans for the worst case. 0:39:58.160 --> 0:40:00.640 I mean, when we went into a rock first time 0:40:01.320 --> 0:40:03.959 in nineteen ninety one, they were telling us one hundred 0:40:04.000 --> 0:40:07.040 thousand Americans could die. The second time, they were also 0:40:07.120 --> 0:40:10.640 worried about what could happen in Iraq more than Afghanistan. 0:40:10.960 --> 0:40:14.760 Does anyone have that sense of my gosh, your stomach 0:40:14.800 --> 0:40:19.000 is in knots over this, because mine is well. 0:40:19.040 --> 0:40:22.239 I think that's what's led to this long pause and 0:40:22.360 --> 0:40:26.200 deliberation inside the administration. We have pretty good reporting that 0:40:26.920 --> 0:40:29.440 three weeks ago or so, the President was prepared to 0:40:29.520 --> 0:40:31.959 act and called off an operation. And I think he's 0:40:32.000 --> 0:40:34.879 grappling with this because all of the operations he's been 0:40:34.920 --> 0:40:39.880 involved in, the assassination of customs Solimani, the Maduro operation. 0:40:40.200 --> 0:40:42.840 They have not led to the deaths of American servicemen 0:40:42.960 --> 0:40:48.160 and the withdrawal from American from Afghanistan's President Trump has 0:40:48.200 --> 0:40:53.200 compared the operations he has ordered favorably to the withdrawal 0:40:53.239 --> 0:40:55.800 from Afghanistan that led to the deaths of thirteen American 0:40:55.840 --> 0:40:58.719 service members. And we know that this president does not 0:40:58.880 --> 0:41:01.719 want the blood the bodies of American service members on 0:41:01.760 --> 0:41:04.319 his hand, and you have to imagine he's wrestling with 0:41:04.360 --> 0:41:05.240 that quite hard. 0:41:05.600 --> 0:41:08.879 I agree, but very quickly, Eliana. If he bring Hume 0:41:08.880 --> 0:41:11.279 on the program, he actually said he can't back down 0:41:11.360 --> 0:41:14.080 now or his credibility is shot in the American deterrent. 0:41:14.160 --> 0:41:16.279 It's a shot. I agree with that, do you. 0:41:18.400 --> 0:41:20.120 I think that's a black and white way to put it, 0:41:20.160 --> 0:41:22.799 but I asolutely I'm not totally there, but I think 0:41:22.840 --> 0:41:26.239 it absolutely would degrade the deterrent that he's spent the 0:41:26.320 --> 0:41:31.240 past year rebuilding from the degradation that took place during 0:41:31.239 --> 0:41:33.400 the Obama and Biden administrations. 0:41:33.560 --> 0:41:36.840 It would hurt Eliana Y. Johnson on X, editor in 0:41:36.880 --> 0:41:40.120 chief of The Washington Free Beacon, participant in the commentary podcast. 0:41:40.120 --> 0:41:42.319 Thank you for joining me. As always, Eleiana great to 0:41:42.320 --> 0:41:45.880 speak with. You don't not read the Washington Freebeacon go 0:41:45.960 --> 0:41:47.719 every day. Check out what they put up for you 0:41:47.800 --> 0:41:50.560 at freebeacon dot com, and do not miss one episode 0:41:50.560 --> 0:41:53.920 of the commentary podcast. I'm joined by Josh Kraashauer. He 0:41:54.120 --> 0:41:57.960 is the editor in chief of Jewish Insider. Josh. Welcome, 0:41:58.000 --> 0:42:00.880 I want to read to you for it from Open 0:42:00.880 --> 0:42:04.719 Source Intel that came out about fifteen minutes ago. Islamic 0:42:04.760 --> 0:42:10.960 Revolutionary Guard General Yadullah Havani told Al Maya Dean first 0:42:11.120 --> 0:42:14.239 unveiling the Kormashar four missile was a direct message to 0:42:14.280 --> 0:42:17.400 the United States. Two, Iran will not trade away its 0:42:17.440 --> 0:42:21.520 military capabilities at the negotiating table. Three the US returned 0:42:21.520 --> 0:42:24.520 to talks in a weakened, in humiliated position, and four 0:42:24.920 --> 0:42:27.520 the general says US power in the region has weakened. 0:42:27.960 --> 0:42:29.120 What is that message? 0:42:31.560 --> 0:42:34.240 I think it's a combination of a lot of bluster 0:42:34.960 --> 0:42:39.640 and a lot of intransigence and anyone expecting a breakthrough 0:42:40.480 --> 0:42:42.280 to come out of the talks between the United States 0:42:42.320 --> 0:42:46.080 and Iran and scheduled this Friday, scheduled tomorrow in Oman, 0:42:46.320 --> 0:42:48.360 I think is very optimistic. 0:42:49.360 --> 0:42:50.440 They're definitely going. 0:42:50.280 --> 0:42:53.279 Through the motions but there's been no sign publicly or 0:42:53.320 --> 0:42:55.840 privately from the Iranians that they're willing to make the concessions, 0:42:55.880 --> 0:42:58.759 even the basic concessions about their nuclear program, that the 0:42:58.800 --> 0:43:02.120 Trump administration has demanded. And it looks like, you know, 0:43:02.200 --> 0:43:04.000 the Iranians seem to be trying to buy some time 0:43:04.360 --> 0:43:07.080 and trying to perhaps delay the inevitable, or perhaps trying 0:43:07.120 --> 0:43:11.400 to buy time to you know, the delay inevitable and indefinitely. 0:43:11.440 --> 0:43:12.200 But we'll see. 0:43:12.360 --> 0:43:15.680 I think the Trump administration is pretty committed to going 0:43:15.880 --> 0:43:18.879 through with military action if they don't get any buying 0:43:18.960 --> 0:43:21.239 from the Iranians on any any kind of diplomacy. 0:43:21.560 --> 0:43:24.239 Josh I talked to Ambassador Orran at the beginning of 0:43:24.280 --> 0:43:27.880 the program. He laid out a potentially very dire set 0:43:27.920 --> 0:43:32.239 of reactions to a battle with Iran, including strikes on 0:43:32.280 --> 0:43:35.520 our basis and perhaps on our carriers. That the Iranians 0:43:35.520 --> 0:43:38.560 are pretty good at targeting their missiles. What do you 0:43:38.600 --> 0:43:41.160 think is the risk level that the American people are 0:43:41.200 --> 0:43:41.719 aware of? 0:43:43.600 --> 0:43:45.520 Well, I think I think Michael Orian laid it out 0:43:45.520 --> 0:43:48.800 pretty pretty directly. You look at the public hue in 0:43:48.920 --> 0:43:53.080 Israel and as opposed to last year with the war 0:43:53.080 --> 0:43:59.040 against the strongard in Israel to dost some the Iranian 0:43:59.080 --> 0:44:03.000 nuclear The public opinion in Israel is a lot more mixed. 0:44:03.000 --> 0:44:04.759 In fact, it was just a very respected survey that 0:44:04.840 --> 0:44:08.800 came out this week showing fifty to fifty in Israel 0:44:08.880 --> 0:44:12.279 between folks are who want Israel to know essentially be 0:44:12.400 --> 0:44:18.000 publicly behind any ulitary strike, and another half predominantly from 0:44:18.040 --> 0:44:20.959 the outside of it, that are much more wary about 0:44:20.960 --> 0:44:23.560 the consequences. And make no mistake that if the US 0:44:23.840 --> 0:44:28.080 duk age and does strike Iran militarily, Israel is probably 0:44:28.120 --> 0:44:30.640 a brunt of the constas. 0:44:30.800 --> 0:44:33.800 Now Prime Minister and you know who addressed the Kinessa today, 0:44:33.840 --> 0:44:35.640 and it is reported that he said there is a 0:44:35.680 --> 0:44:38.520 build up of conditions toward a critical mass that could 0:44:38.560 --> 0:44:41.919 bring about the downfall of the Iranian regime. I don't 0:44:41.920 --> 0:44:43.880 know if that's correct. Have you ever read Empire of 0:44:43.960 --> 0:44:48.200 Terror by Mark Zelenski, Josh, it's about the IRGC. I 0:44:48.239 --> 0:44:51.880 have none. Well, the IGCS one hundred and fifty thousand strong. 0:44:52.360 --> 0:44:54.319 They are a very small portion of the ninety two 0:44:54.320 --> 0:44:56.800 million Iranians, but they run everything, and they're so deeply 0:44:56.920 --> 0:45:00.239 encrusted on the regime. I don't think regime change is 0:45:00.280 --> 0:45:02.239 a question of killing the Ayatolla. I think it's a 0:45:02.280 --> 0:45:04.239 question of killing most of the i er g C. 0:45:04.440 --> 0:45:05.200 Do you agree with that? 0:45:06.400 --> 0:45:09.440 Yeah, I mean, look, there's a lot of from Israel 0:45:09.480 --> 0:45:12.520 to the Golf States. There's not an expectation that even 0:45:12.520 --> 0:45:15.560 if you know, Committee disappeared or you know, was killed, 0:45:16.120 --> 0:45:19.560 that there would be an automatic transition to a democracy 0:45:19.680 --> 0:45:26.560 or much more humane government that the IERGC in a 0:45:26.960 --> 0:45:30.640 life and they have, you know, they would natural inheritors. 0:45:31.760 --> 0:45:35.640 So you know, there's a certainly the Golf States are 0:45:36.040 --> 0:45:38.080 and in fact, I think part of the US delay, 0:45:38.239 --> 0:45:41.439 they're getting a lot of pushback I would imagine from 0:45:41.520 --> 0:45:42.719 the Golf State allies. 0:45:42.480 --> 0:45:44.160 Saudi Arabia ue. 0:45:45.280 --> 0:45:48.720 You know, the allies in the region are very worried 0:45:48.760 --> 0:45:51.280 about but what could happen if there is a long, long, 0:45:51.440 --> 0:45:57.200 long term or more days of engagement against Iran and 0:45:57.239 --> 0:45:59.719 Iran I've seen what they do and what they what 0:45:59.760 --> 0:46:01.200 kind of what kind of damage they can. 0:46:01.120 --> 0:46:01.760 Cause of the region. 0:46:01.840 --> 0:46:04.560 Yeah, our friend Noah Rothman posted pictures over at his 0:46:04.600 --> 0:46:08.399 ex account nosc Rothman of our base and cutter two 0:46:08.440 --> 0:46:12.600 weeks ago in today and the difference is Patriot Air 0:46:12.640 --> 0:46:17.360 Defense batteries have been deployed. I also saw online the 0:46:17.440 --> 0:46:20.680 account of the traffic of the big C seventeens that 0:46:20.719 --> 0:46:22.840 can carry the FAD systems anywhere in the world. They 0:46:22.840 --> 0:46:25.680 were up and flying again last night. It's clear that 0:46:25.920 --> 0:46:30.040 every air defense asset that we've got is deploying to 0:46:30.080 --> 0:46:33.960 our bases in the region, because we remember the Iranians 0:46:34.040 --> 0:46:37.760 hit Ali Sad base on the nose when they wanted 0:46:37.760 --> 0:46:41.719 to after Solimani was killed, so they can hit our bases. 0:46:42.239 --> 0:46:45.160 Do you think the American public is aware of the 0:46:46.120 --> 0:46:49.919 actually the cost that this could bring with it. Well, yeah, 0:46:50.440 --> 0:46:50.680 they have. 0:46:50.800 --> 0:46:52.239 I mean you just let it out Q, both in 0:46:52.280 --> 0:46:54.880 Iraq and Katar that they've done it, and it hasn't 0:46:54.880 --> 0:46:58.000 been that long ago, so that that memory runs fresh. 0:46:58.200 --> 0:46:59.440 And look, I. 0:46:59.320 --> 0:47:00.719 Think there's been a lot of debate. 0:47:00.719 --> 0:47:02.799 We've talked about this on the show qu on whether 0:47:02.880 --> 0:47:03.759 Trump is actually going to. 0:47:03.800 --> 0:47:05.440 Go forward with military strikes. 0:47:05.920 --> 0:47:09.719 Obviously said he would after Iran slaughtered thousands of its 0:47:09.719 --> 0:47:14.520 own citizens, but the reality is it wants to negotiate 0:47:14.560 --> 0:47:18.480 with the I and it's gave a notable interview to 0:47:18.560 --> 0:47:21.520 Makan Kelly this week where he was sort of expressing 0:47:21.560 --> 0:47:23.520 out loud that the president was sort of bewildered that 0:47:23.560 --> 0:47:26.440 Iran can't even reach the Iyatola to directly negotiate in 0:47:26.520 --> 0:47:29.040 the same way he has with other enemies like Vladimir 0:47:29.080 --> 0:47:31.799 Putin or in the first term, with North Korea as 0:47:31.800 --> 0:47:33.800 a leader. So, I mean, I think it's a frustration. 0:47:34.040 --> 0:47:35.640 I think Trump would love to do some kind of deal, 0:47:35.680 --> 0:47:38.279 and that's what's driving a lot of the conversations and 0:47:38.320 --> 0:47:41.440 the meeting in Oman tomorrow. But ultimately they have been 0:47:41.440 --> 0:47:44.360 in transgend and that's who the Iranian regime is and 0:47:44.400 --> 0:47:45.000 has always been. 0:47:45.640 --> 0:47:48.040 You know, I want to close on that point. There 0:47:48.160 --> 0:47:51.560 is no negotiating with this regime. They just murdered at 0:47:51.680 --> 0:47:54.600 least thirty thousand of their own people, and some estimates 0:47:54.640 --> 0:47:57.719 I've seen go twice and high and even higher. What 0:47:57.760 --> 0:48:01.080 can you expect? I mean, really, just because Barack Obama 0:48:01.120 --> 0:48:04.000 felt for this doesn't mean all American presidents are obliged 0:48:04.000 --> 0:48:06.399 to call for this. That's right, Hugh. 0:48:06.440 --> 0:48:08.319 And look, I think it's a little bit of a 0:48:08.320 --> 0:48:12.360 mixed message and that yes, these negotiations are about nuclear 0:48:12.600 --> 0:48:16.560 and about the enrichment maybe missiles, but that's certainly been 0:48:16.680 --> 0:48:17.840 the sensible focus. 0:48:18.120 --> 0:48:19.160 But Trump has said. 0:48:19.040 --> 0:48:21.000 It was about, you know, the slaughter, I mean, the 0:48:21.800 --> 0:48:23.960 human rights abuses, the slaughter of your own citizens, the 0:48:24.000 --> 0:48:28.520 support for Rubio sectoristic Rubo. It's also about the support 0:48:28.520 --> 0:48:31.319 for tapes across the region in the world. This is 0:48:31.480 --> 0:48:34.960 a reventeous regime that has caused untold around the world, 0:48:34.960 --> 0:48:37.759 and I think it's important, you know, focus on that 0:48:37.800 --> 0:48:40.160 big picture. I think Trump sometimes can kind of get 0:48:40.160 --> 0:48:43.000 into the narrow details of a nuclear negotiation, but it's 0:48:43.000 --> 0:48:44.080 a lot more than that, all right. 0:48:44.160 --> 0:48:46.879 I think he's also pretty good at throwing a lot 0:48:46.880 --> 0:48:49.319 of dust into everybody's eyes about what is going on 0:48:49.400 --> 0:48:51.320 and when it's going to happen. He's done it, certainly 0:48:51.360 --> 0:48:54.080 to everyone in the United States. I assume the Iranians 0:48:54.080 --> 0:48:57.000 are Justice continued Josh Cross, our editor in chief of 0:48:57.080 --> 0:48:59.600 Jewish Insider, always a pleague to talk to you. Come 0:48:59.640 --> 0:49:02.640 to the on this Thursday. I will be returning later 0:49:02.719 --> 0:49:04.880 in the program to the topic of the loving battle 0:49:04.920 --> 0:49:08.120 with Iran. But there's some domestic news going on as well, 0:49:08.160 --> 0:49:10.799 and for that I have Sarah Bedford with me. She 0:49:10.920 --> 0:49:14.520 is the investigations editor at the DC Examiner Washington Examiner. 0:49:14.800 --> 0:49:17.880 You can follow her on ex at Sarah C. Bedford. Hello, Sarah, 0:49:17.920 --> 0:49:20.040 how are you in very very cold beltwey Land. 0:49:21.560 --> 0:49:24.040 I'm great, Thanks for having me. Yeah, still pretty cold here. 0:49:24.160 --> 0:49:27.000 Yeah. I'm going back on Sunday, and I'm hoping it 0:49:27.040 --> 0:49:29.000 will warm up a little bit before then, because going 0:49:29.040 --> 0:49:30.879 from California to the Belway is going to be quite 0:49:30.920 --> 0:49:35.240 the trip. Sarah, the Leader was on with me yesterday 0:49:35.320 --> 0:49:38.319 lear Thoon, and he said the Democrats have not yet 0:49:38.360 --> 0:49:42.600 made their demands on the DHS appropriations bill. Has anything 0:49:42.719 --> 0:49:45.160 changed in twenty four hours? Have they laid out what 0:49:45.200 --> 0:49:46.360 they want yet? 0:49:47.520 --> 0:49:51.279 Yes, Democrats have since laid out ten demands that they 0:49:51.320 --> 0:49:54.480 have for the DHS funding bill, and to be honest, 0:49:54.640 --> 0:49:57.719 most of them are non starters with Republicans. One of them, 0:49:57.920 --> 0:50:01.840 sort of as expected, was to require ICE agents CBP 0:50:01.960 --> 0:50:04.360 agents to get a judicial warrant before. 0:50:04.120 --> 0:50:05.279 They go to someone's home. 0:50:06.040 --> 0:50:09.680 That would effectively end the way that immigration enforcement is 0:50:09.760 --> 0:50:14.440 conducted now. With an administrative warrant through administrative courts, it's 0:50:14.480 --> 0:50:17.919 a totally different type of law enforcement, and to bring 0:50:18.000 --> 0:50:21.160 that in line with the criminal justice system would grind 0:50:21.280 --> 0:50:24.120 enforcement to a halt. So that's one that's totally a 0:50:24.160 --> 0:50:28.360 non starter with Republicans. Another one is to end the 0:50:28.400 --> 0:50:32.520 DHS's the Trump DHS's policies on sensitive locations. The Trump 0:50:32.560 --> 0:50:37.400 administration said ICE, you can go to places like pulling areas, 0:50:38.120 --> 0:50:43.279 polling places, schools, churches. That way, illegal immigrants who know 0:50:43.600 --> 0:50:46.839 that the law enforcement is coming for them can't hide 0:50:46.880 --> 0:50:50.680 out in those locations and know that they're untouchable. If 0:50:50.719 --> 0:50:52.360 you take away the ability for ICE to go to 0:50:52.400 --> 0:50:56.680 someone's house or their school, or their workplace or a 0:50:56.719 --> 0:51:00.799 polling place, where is I supposed to arrest people? And 0:51:00.840 --> 0:51:04.439 on top of that, it ends what democrats call racial profiling, 0:51:04.719 --> 0:51:08.279 which is going to places where legal immigrants tend to congregate, 0:51:08.360 --> 0:51:10.040 such as outside home depots. 0:51:10.200 --> 0:51:11.719 I wouldn't even be allowed to do that. 0:51:12.040 --> 0:51:15.480 So if the Republicans were to concede to these Democratic demands, 0:51:15.680 --> 0:51:18.680 it would effectively end immigration enforcement altogether. 0:51:18.840 --> 0:51:20.280 And that's why they're non starters. 0:51:20.600 --> 0:51:24.920 Are there any demands that they made that Republicans appeared 0:51:25.000 --> 0:51:26.200 to consider reasonable. 0:51:28.080 --> 0:51:32.000 Republicans have shown a willingness to consider requiring body cameras 0:51:32.040 --> 0:51:34.440 for agents, and the Trump DHS has already said this 0:51:34.480 --> 0:51:36.640 is something they want to do. They're rolling it out 0:51:36.640 --> 0:51:40.399 in Minneapolis. They're willing to roll this out nationwide if 0:51:40.440 --> 0:51:43.800 the appropriations are there, to get cameras for everyone, because 0:51:43.840 --> 0:51:46.360 a lot of the agents say that the body camera 0:51:46.400 --> 0:51:49.640 footage would end up validating their version of events. The 0:51:49.719 --> 0:51:53.280 agents themselves don't seem to be that opposed to getting 0:51:53.280 --> 0:51:55.560 body cameras. In fact, Tom Homan, who's in charge of 0:51:55.600 --> 0:51:58.040 the situation in Minneapolis now, said what he heard from 0:51:58.040 --> 0:51:59.000 the rank and file. 0:51:58.880 --> 0:52:00.760 Was that they wanted to have cameras. 0:52:00.920 --> 0:52:04.360 So that's one that the Republicans could concede to the 0:52:04.360 --> 0:52:05.520 Democrats on Capitol Hill. 0:52:05.719 --> 0:52:09.319 Did the list include regularization of the Dreamers, the three 0:52:09.360 --> 0:52:12.600 million people who came into the United States as a minor, 0:52:13.080 --> 0:52:15.880 not brought by their own free will, but who were 0:52:15.880 --> 0:52:16.440 brought here. 0:52:16.280 --> 0:52:16.960 By other people. 0:52:18.400 --> 0:52:20.759 That's certainly something Democrats want, but it wasn't part of 0:52:20.800 --> 0:52:23.560 the appropriations package. That would be really difficult to do 0:52:24.000 --> 0:52:28.799 through appropriations, But certainly amsty for full swaps of people 0:52:28.880 --> 0:52:31.160 is something that Democrats would want to do policy wise, 0:52:31.200 --> 0:52:32.720 if they had control of government. 0:52:33.280 --> 0:52:36.319 You know, I'm going to differ with you, Sarah. I 0:52:36.400 --> 0:52:42.120 believe the appropriations process is amendable in regular order, provided 0:52:42.120 --> 0:52:44.520 that you get over sixty votes in the Senate. So 0:52:44.560 --> 0:52:47.080 if they really cared about the Dreamers and coupled it 0:52:47.120 --> 0:52:49.600 with I wrote about this at Fox News today, coupled 0:52:49.600 --> 0:52:52.640 it with a sanctuary city funding cut off for the Republicans, 0:52:52.880 --> 0:52:55.520 they could get the Dreamers regularized. They've been talking about 0:52:55.520 --> 0:52:57.440 it for twenty years. Why not ask for it? 0:52:59.239 --> 0:53:01.440 Well, it's a great question, and a lot of their 0:53:01.480 --> 0:53:04.720 demands had to do with sort of defanging ICE and CBP. 0:53:04.920 --> 0:53:08.319 Other things that the Democrats wanted is to prevent ICE 0:53:08.360 --> 0:53:10.799 agents from ever being able to wear masks, and not 0:53:10.840 --> 0:53:14.560 only that, but having to wear IDs visible on their 0:53:14.640 --> 0:53:17.839 uniforms at all times with a serial number that these 0:53:18.200 --> 0:53:20.880 ICE observers would be able to take down badge numbers 0:53:20.920 --> 0:53:25.160 and make individualized reports. But you do have DHS saying 0:53:25.239 --> 0:53:28.920 that threats against these agents are up something like one 0:53:28.920 --> 0:53:31.759 thousand percent. I mean, they're getting an insane number of 0:53:31.840 --> 0:53:34.920 threats against these agents, and so that's why the administration 0:53:35.080 --> 0:53:37.759 argues they need to protect these people's identities. 0:53:38.120 --> 0:53:40.640 So this is basically a dead on arrival list of 0:53:40.680 --> 0:53:44.680 demands and no room to negotiate, nothing to talk about. 0:53:45.280 --> 0:53:49.000 That means DHS won't be funded. What does that? What's 0:53:49.040 --> 0:53:50.640 the schedule call for shutdown. 0:53:52.880 --> 0:53:56.239 They have until February thirteenth, so next week to get 0:53:56.239 --> 0:53:58.839 this done. The one thing Republicans have going for them 0:53:58.920 --> 0:53:59.600 is that DHS. 0:53:59.640 --> 0:54:01.000 It's not just Ice and CVP. 0:54:01.160 --> 0:54:03.600 You have FEMA in there, you have TSA in there, 0:54:03.680 --> 0:54:07.759 things that Democrats know they can't let go without funding. 0:54:08.239 --> 0:54:11.840 And the One Big Beautiful Bill Act already gave Ice 0:54:12.200 --> 0:54:16.120 millions billions of dollars through twenty twenty nine to conduct 0:54:16.120 --> 0:54:20.560 a surgeon deportation. So allowing another shutdown for DHS wouldn't 0:54:20.640 --> 0:54:22.799 defund the stuff that Democrats hate. 0:54:22.840 --> 0:54:23.839 And because you do have. 0:54:23.719 --> 0:54:27.600 FEMA and TSA in there, Democrats will also feel pressure 0:54:27.920 --> 0:54:29.839 to reach some kind of funding deal. 0:54:30.160 --> 0:54:33.840 And last question, Serre Betfort, have they named their negotiating team? 0:54:34.200 --> 0:54:38.200 Do we know doing the actual cut and paste of 0:54:38.239 --> 0:54:40.319 any deal on DHS appropriations. 0:54:42.360 --> 0:54:44.560 We have a leadership leadership at both parties. 0:54:44.600 --> 0:54:47.000 You have a keen Jeffries, you have Chuck Schumer Thune 0:54:47.239 --> 0:54:48.560 out there right now being. 0:54:48.440 --> 0:54:50.520 The public face of negotiations. 0:54:50.520 --> 0:54:52.600 In terms of the rank and file, you know you've 0:54:52.600 --> 0:54:55.919 had at least the appropriators be more willing to play 0:54:55.960 --> 0:54:56.719 ball with each other. 0:54:56.840 --> 0:54:59.640 Susan Collins in the Senate for example, and others. 0:54:59.680 --> 0:55:03.040 So but right now, you know, because this is the 0:55:03.080 --> 0:55:06.920 ballgame for Democrats, you have leadership being the again the. 0:55:06.840 --> 0:55:08.400 Public face of the negotiations. 0:55:08.520 --> 0:55:10.760 Yeah, okay, I'm going to shift topic on you quickly 0:55:10.800 --> 0:55:13.960 because that's not going anywhere, and unless they sing a 0:55:14.000 --> 0:55:15.600 new tune, there's going to be a shutdown and they're 0:55:15.600 --> 0:55:18.080 going to end up being embarrassed like they were last year. 0:55:19.200 --> 0:55:22.480 Is there any concern in the Congress about the looming 0:55:22.480 --> 0:55:24.120 battle with the Iran that you've picked up? 0:55:26.320 --> 0:55:29.200 Republicans are? They are so far for the. 0:55:29.160 --> 0:55:32.200 Most part, backing Donald Trump and acknowledging you know, of 0:55:32.239 --> 0:55:34.640 course he has the authority to do any sort of 0:55:34.719 --> 0:55:37.919 limited immediate strikes. But if you're talking about a sustained 0:55:37.960 --> 0:55:40.920 military action, you do have some Republicans saying, if it's 0:55:40.920 --> 0:55:44.600 going to be a sustained situation, whether boots on the 0:55:44.640 --> 0:55:47.440 ground or a bombardment or anything, then we're going to 0:55:47.520 --> 0:55:48.120 want Trump to. 0:55:48.120 --> 0:55:48.759 Come talk to us. 0:55:48.800 --> 0:55:51.480 So Republicans are just sort of cautiously waiting to see 0:55:51.600 --> 0:55:52.520 what Trump is going to do. 0:55:53.080 --> 0:55:55.600 Sarah see Bedford from the Washington Demmer always going to 0:55:55.640 --> 0:55:58.800 talk to you. Thank you, Sarah, follower at Exit Sarah C. 0:55:59.040 --> 0:56:03.080 Bedford dot not dot com. Sara see Bedford on x. 0:56:03.840 --> 0:56:06.360 Philip Valboni is editor in chief and the founder of 0:56:06.400 --> 0:56:09.279 Global Post, which you can find at GlobalPost dot com. 0:56:09.280 --> 0:56:11.640 I don't want to make the Kanu that mistake GlobalPost 0:56:11.800 --> 0:56:14.480 dot com and the lead story today is about our 0:56:14.520 --> 0:56:17.080 neighbor to the south, Mexico. Hello, Philip, how are you? 0:56:18.520 --> 0:56:22.280 I'm good, Hugh. I love the conversation about the discombobulator. 0:56:22.680 --> 0:56:24.200 It's a tough active folk it is. 0:56:24.280 --> 0:56:26.279 I don't want to get hit by one, but you know, 0:56:26.360 --> 0:56:28.200 we might have to use it in Mexico. After I 0:56:28.239 --> 0:56:31.120 read the lead story today, it does not appear that 0:56:31.280 --> 0:56:36.280 President Schinbaum is doing enough that the Trump administration wants done. 0:56:36.960 --> 0:56:39.720 Or is she? Did I read it the right way? 0:56:40.880 --> 0:56:46.720 Well, the President has talked about possibly using special forces 0:56:47.640 --> 0:56:53.279 to attack the drug cartels. Obviously President Shangong, president of Mexico, 0:56:53.320 --> 0:56:58.040 does not want that to happen. I mean what we 0:56:58.080 --> 0:57:02.680 wrote about today was, I mean for the horrific violence 0:57:02.760 --> 0:57:07.200 that the drug cartels have been visiting on the Mexican people. 0:57:07.239 --> 0:57:11.799 One hundred thousand killed over the last twenty years. Ten 0:57:11.880 --> 0:57:16.280 mayors in the last year alone. Of course, the drug 0:57:16.280 --> 0:57:22.240 cartels are wreaking havoc in America as well. We have 0:57:22.360 --> 0:57:29.280 lost one hundred thousand drug overdose deaths a year. The 0:57:29.320 --> 0:57:32.840 peak was two thousand and twenty three. Last year was 0:57:33.200 --> 0:57:38.000 a little bit less. But it's a tremendous tragedy. And 0:57:38.160 --> 0:57:41.320 President hump doesn't think that the Mexican government is doing enough, 0:57:42.000 --> 0:57:44.960 and it's hard to argue that he isn't right about that. 0:57:45.520 --> 0:57:47.440 I did not I had missed until I read a 0:57:47.440 --> 0:57:50.520 Global post today the Ryan Wedding story. Do you want 0:57:50.520 --> 0:57:53.000 to tell people about that? Because I did not realize 0:57:53.520 --> 0:57:57.040 that a Canadian former Olympic snowboarder was involved with the 0:57:57.080 --> 0:57:58.520 Sineloa cartel. 0:58:00.040 --> 0:58:01.560 It appears that that is the case. 0:58:01.760 --> 0:58:07.320 And apparently an elite FBI team, although we're a little 0:58:07.960 --> 0:58:13.400 uncertainty about this, went into Mexico and extracted mister Wedding 0:58:13.840 --> 0:58:16.840 and brought him back and obviously he is going. 0:58:16.800 --> 0:58:17.600 To go on trial. 0:58:18.320 --> 0:58:22.240 But he had been involved with the Sineloa cartel allegedly 0:58:22.480 --> 0:58:28.880 for a long time, ten years or more, in you know, 0:58:29.200 --> 0:58:33.280 funneling all these drugs up across the borders. Pretty amazing story. 0:58:33.320 --> 0:58:35.160 I had not heard about it before. Until I read 0:58:35.160 --> 0:58:36.840 it in the newsletter this morning. 0:58:37.000 --> 0:58:38.600 Now I want to read the opening to this and 0:58:38.640 --> 0:58:40.720 it's at GlobalPost dot com if you want to read it. 0:58:40.720 --> 0:58:42.400 By the way, if you're a student or an educator, 0:58:42.440 --> 0:58:44.640 it's free for you to sign up for GlobalPost dot 0:58:44.640 --> 0:58:47.760 com if you just love foreign news, Philip, did you note, 0:58:47.760 --> 0:58:50.320 by the way, Jay, the Washington Post basically closed their 0:58:50.360 --> 0:58:50.960 foreign gurel. 0:58:52.440 --> 0:58:55.040 I sure did, and I know you used to write 0:58:55.040 --> 0:58:58.520 for The Post, a once great newspaper. I mean, it's 0:58:58.800 --> 0:59:02.080 really a sign of what has been going on for 0:59:02.160 --> 0:59:05.440 twenty years that declined and coverage your foreign news. 0:59:05.440 --> 0:59:06.840 The Post is another example. 0:59:06.880 --> 0:59:13.840 They eliminated seventy five percent of their foreign team. Pretty shocking. 0:59:14.040 --> 0:59:17.520 And it's why we're here. That's why Global Posts was created. 0:59:17.520 --> 0:59:21.000 Why I started it is to help Americans know the 0:59:21.000 --> 0:59:21.520 world better. 0:59:21.720 --> 0:59:23.680 Yeah, it occurred to me when I was reading the 0:59:23.680 --> 0:59:26.320 brief today that you're going to fill in and if 0:59:26.360 --> 0:59:29.240 people love knowing about the world, they should go to 0:59:29.280 --> 0:59:31.960 GlobalPost dot com, especially if you're a teacher or a student. 0:59:32.040 --> 0:59:34.680 It's free, but anyone who cares about the world, you 0:59:34.720 --> 0:59:37.800 can subscribe to it at GlobalPost dot com. The headline 0:59:37.840 --> 0:59:40.440 is in the cross here. Mack Mexico walks a tightrope 0:59:40.440 --> 0:59:43.200 as US threats mount and Philip and his team are 0:59:43.200 --> 0:59:47.160 pretty good writers. Great lead, but a tragic one. You're 0:59:47.280 --> 0:59:51.800 up on Marror. Carlos Manzo was attending Day of Death 0:59:52.160 --> 0:59:54.959 Day of the Dead celebrations in his city's historic center 0:59:55.000 --> 0:59:59.400 in November when a lone gunman shot him to death. Manzo, forty, 0:59:59.600 --> 1:00:02.160 became heir of the town in the western state of 1:00:02.280 --> 1:00:06.200 mccoaugh Khan in September twenty twenty four. Was an outspoken 1:00:06.240 --> 1:00:09.320 critic of the Cartels, pursuing a no leniency approach to 1:00:09.360 --> 1:00:12.440 finding them. Just a few months before his murder. The 1:00:12.520 --> 1:00:15.040 mayor said his efforts were inspired by his outrage over 1:00:15.080 --> 1:00:18.120 local suffering in the region taken over by these criminal groups. 1:00:18.360 --> 1:00:19.920 I don't want to be just another mayor on the 1:00:19.960 --> 1:00:22.880 list of those executed, Manzo said, But I don't want 1:00:23.160 --> 1:00:26.800 the municipal police to continue becoming statistics or the honest 1:00:26.840 --> 1:00:29.920 and honorable citizens who are victims of this social cancer amount. 1:00:31.080 --> 1:00:33.280 I don't know who runs for office in Mexico, Philip, 1:00:33.320 --> 1:00:33.560 do you. 1:00:35.240 --> 1:00:37.480 I know? I mean, this has been going on for 1:00:37.520 --> 1:00:43.120 twenty years, Hugh, and so many you know, courageous people 1:00:43.880 --> 1:00:49.600 have died, you know, trying to come back these cartels, and. 1:00:48.640 --> 1:00:49.760 They're still. 1:00:51.120 --> 1:00:55.160 Very, very powerful, and they're still you know, spreading corruption 1:00:55.440 --> 1:00:59.640 among you know, the military and the politicians. 1:01:00.080 --> 1:01:02.000 Uh, I mean. 1:01:03.000 --> 1:01:07.720 Something, something needs to change, because this can't go on, 1:01:08.480 --> 1:01:09.560 you know, any longer. 1:01:09.600 --> 1:01:13.720 Really, Now that the Post notes GlobalPost dot com, right 1:01:14.120 --> 1:01:17.280 analysts say she has gone further Claudia Scheinbaum, the President 1:01:17.280 --> 1:01:21.080 of Mexico, than her predecessors in combating the cartels, but 1:01:21.200 --> 1:01:25.520 warned that progress remains uneven, though the government's moved to 1:01:25.560 --> 1:01:29.080 decrease the already miniscule security brought budget or its reluctant 1:01:29.120 --> 1:01:32.040 to target politicians, but link to the cartels are alarming. 1:01:32.880 --> 1:01:36.120 What has she done? 1:01:36.920 --> 1:01:42.720 She has apparently, through their you know, their law enforcement people, 1:01:42.800 --> 1:01:45.960 has reduced the flow of fetanyl across the border. I 1:01:45.960 --> 1:01:48.120 think that's one of the things that she has cited. 1:01:48.520 --> 1:01:52.240 They have increased their cooperation with the DEA and other 1:01:53.240 --> 1:01:55.720 you know, law enforcement people in the United States. But 1:01:57.920 --> 1:02:02.760 these efforts have gone on know in her priors, prior administrations, 1:02:03.240 --> 1:02:06.280 her predecessor and others. 1:02:06.320 --> 1:02:09.440 Nothing seems to be able to break the power of 1:02:09.520 --> 1:02:10.600 all that money. 1:02:10.920 --> 1:02:14.760 The billions and billions of dollars that these cartels make 1:02:14.880 --> 1:02:19.800 from selling drugs in the United States, and that money 1:02:19.080 --> 1:02:24.200 is paying off people, and it's extremely difficult to break. 1:02:24.240 --> 1:02:27.600 I mean, you have to break the cartels. And I 1:02:27.680 --> 1:02:30.440 think that's why, I mean it's tempting for the President 1:02:30.520 --> 1:02:34.400 to want to use special forces. Most people think that 1:02:34.760 --> 1:02:39.960 would not work, that it would. It's not as simple 1:02:40.000 --> 1:02:42.920 as going after one person, although you could get out 1:02:42.960 --> 1:02:43.240 some of the. 1:02:43.280 --> 1:02:44.800 Leaders, but we've done that before. 1:02:46.040 --> 1:02:49.240 But you really have to break an organization of thousands 1:02:49.280 --> 1:02:52.960 and thousands of people, many of them just foot soldiers. 1:02:53.240 --> 1:02:58.800 And plus you know, going into Mexico would produce a 1:02:58.880 --> 1:03:02.959 big anti US reaction in our neighbor to the south, 1:03:03.000 --> 1:03:06.480 which is a great trade partner, important trade partner. So 1:03:08.640 --> 1:03:12.640 I don't know, it's been it's been persisting for a 1:03:12.680 --> 1:03:18.360 long time, and it doesn't look like we're making the 1:03:18.400 --> 1:03:19.840 progress that we deserve to. 1:03:20.200 --> 1:03:23.320 Well, it is difficult to imagine pulling out the cartels. 1:03:23.360 --> 1:03:26.120 By their roots, they're they're deeper and wider, I think, 1:03:26.160 --> 1:03:28.560 in fact, than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Court, which is 1:03:28.560 --> 1:03:31.120 at one hundred and fifty thousand Phillip In the last 1:03:31.120 --> 1:03:34.160 minute that we have. Do you expect that the United 1:03:34.200 --> 1:03:36.280 States is going to initiate a battle with Iran? 1:03:39.280 --> 1:03:40.320 I wouldn't be surprised. 1:03:40.520 --> 1:03:42.800 I don't think the Iranians are going to give up 1:03:44.280 --> 1:03:47.520 the opportunity to make Nubleo weapons. I don't think they're 1:03:47.520 --> 1:03:53.080 going to give up power, and so I think it 1:03:53.200 --> 1:03:54.440 may very well come to that. 1:03:55.040 --> 1:03:56.960 I think the next time we docked the Global Post 1:03:57.080 --> 1:03:59.880 ll app stories about what we did in Iran or 1:04:00.440 --> 1:04:03.760 the imminence of it. I'm given the president till Saint 1:04:03.800 --> 1:04:07.160 Patrick's day. Because of the back to back the Olympics 1:04:07.200 --> 1:04:12.320 followed by Ramadan, there is a second carrier group going. 1:04:12.360 --> 1:04:15.240 That's a lot of strength to marshal and then not use. 1:04:15.680 --> 1:04:17.880 Philip Elbonie always go to talk to you, editor in 1:04:17.920 --> 1:04:20.720 chief of Globalposts GlobalPost dot com. If you want to 1:04:20.800 --> 1:04:23.640 learn more about it, Hi, it's you, Hewett. 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If you're over fifty, go to Consumer 1:05:20.960 --> 1:05:24.919 siler dot com, slash hue, promo Hugh or call one 1:05:24.960 --> 1:05:28.040 hundred eight or call one eight hundred four one one 1:05:28.080 --> 1:05:31.520 forty four fifty four one eight hundred four one one 1:05:31.680 --> 1:05:34.560 forty four fifty four. That's one eight hundred four to one, 1:05:34.560 --> 1:05:37.080 one forty four to fifty four. Don't forget My code 1:05:37.280 --> 1:05:41.520 is Hugh, Joined by Jonathan Williams, President of the American 1:05:41.640 --> 1:05:46.680 Legislative Exchange Council ALECALEC dot org slash u if you 1:05:46.720 --> 1:05:49.520 want to sign up for the Alex newsletter. Jonathan joins 1:05:49.560 --> 1:05:51.960 me a couple of times a month to talk about 1:05:51.960 --> 1:05:54.080 what's going on in the stage. Jonathan, I'm going to 1:05:54.200 --> 1:05:57.280 start at the with the Save Act because it's on 1:05:57.400 --> 1:06:00.840 everybody's mind. I got criticized yesterday John Thune about it 1:06:00.840 --> 1:06:03.160 because I know what the leader said, which is he'll 1:06:03.240 --> 1:06:05.160 vote for it when it comes up. What do you 1:06:05.160 --> 1:06:07.080 think about the say back. I don't think it's got 1:06:07.120 --> 1:06:07.840 sixty votes. 1:06:09.600 --> 1:06:13.000 Well, you know, regardless of the vote counting HU in Washington. 1:06:13.080 --> 1:06:15.480 I think it's got the broad backing of the American people, 1:06:15.480 --> 1:06:17.200 which is the important thing. I mean a lot of 1:06:17.200 --> 1:06:20.840 times we're here talking about common sense ALEC policy ideas. 1:06:21.080 --> 1:06:23.000 I mean, this has to be right up there with 1:06:23.080 --> 1:06:26.440 the ninety percent issue. To say that Americans say that 1:06:26.520 --> 1:06:28.720 citizens only should be the ones that are voting, and 1:06:28.800 --> 1:06:31.520 we need to have valid voter ID just as the 1:06:31.520 --> 1:06:32.600 states are working on. 1:06:33.160 --> 1:06:34.680 This is a really important item. 1:06:34.760 --> 1:06:37.640 Now, you know, if that's where, if that's the plank 1:06:37.680 --> 1:06:40.840 that some of the progressive Democrats in the Senate want 1:06:40.880 --> 1:06:43.760 to walk in an election year, that's I think that's 1:06:43.840 --> 1:06:46.040 up to them. But I mean, the American people are 1:06:46.040 --> 1:06:48.640 pretty strongly in favor of something as common sense as this. 1:06:49.040 --> 1:06:51.760 ALEC kids for a long time had the only Citizens 1:06:51.880 --> 1:06:56.200 Vote model policy. How many states have adopted that, Jonathan. 1:06:57.480 --> 1:06:59.840 Well, you know, we're in a number of states this year. 1:06:59.840 --> 1:07:03.760 We just adopted this is last year as a model policies. 1:07:03.840 --> 1:07:06.280 We're in the infancy of it, but we're seeing tons 1:07:06.320 --> 1:07:09.240 of states introduce it. We've had our task Force director 1:07:09.320 --> 1:07:11.680 of our New Process of Procedures task Force out of 1:07:11.800 --> 1:07:15.080 testifying on the policy. Kansas has been a real leader 1:07:15.080 --> 1:07:17.439 in this area, and so be on the lookout because 1:07:17.440 --> 1:07:18.640 I think you're going to see a lot of states 1:07:18.640 --> 1:07:20.360 get across the finish line this session. 1:07:20.680 --> 1:07:22.760 I would actually prefer to be done at the state 1:07:22.880 --> 1:07:25.919 level because then there is no constitutional issue about whether 1:07:26.000 --> 1:07:28.920 or not the Save Act works when it's mandated by 1:07:28.960 --> 1:07:31.840 Congress without a spending clause attached to it. So I 1:07:31.840 --> 1:07:34.520 hope states follow your lead on the Model Act. Let's 1:07:34.520 --> 1:07:37.000 go to the census next, John, what is this new 1:07:37.080 --> 1:07:40.800 census data telling us about twenty thirty in the reapportionment. 1:07:42.440 --> 1:07:44.400 Well, when you look at the political side of it, 1:07:44.760 --> 1:07:47.400 really bad news for if you're in California, right, I mean, 1:07:47.440 --> 1:07:50.480 they're doubling down on just silly economic policies with his 1:07:50.640 --> 1:07:53.640 wealth tax and making things even worse. But if current 1:07:53.680 --> 1:07:58.600 trends continue, California is going to lose potentially four or 1:07:58.720 --> 1:08:02.440 more US House to stricts in the reapportionment of twenty thirty. 1:08:02.600 --> 1:08:04.320 And keep it in mind, California has been a. 1:08:04.280 --> 1:08:07.240 State, as you know, since eighteen fifty. In every single 1:08:07.320 --> 1:08:09.280 decade they gained multiple. 1:08:09.240 --> 1:08:10.720 Seats in many of those decades. 1:08:10.760 --> 1:08:13.840 They only lost their very first seat in state history 1:08:14.240 --> 1:08:17.680 in the last of reapportionment in twenty twenty. So for 1:08:17.840 --> 1:08:21.160 conservatives out there that don't want another Nancy Pelosi in Congress, 1:08:21.160 --> 1:08:24.920 that's probably very good news. But it's once again reiterating 1:08:24.960 --> 1:08:27.880 the point that we make every single year here in 1:08:28.000 --> 1:08:31.040 rich states, poor states, which is Americans continue to vote 1:08:31.040 --> 1:08:34.080 with their feet away from states Lake California with the 1:08:34.120 --> 1:08:36.080 high taxes and big government policies. 1:08:36.479 --> 1:08:40.040 I'm afraid they're going to start leaving Virginia. John, I'm 1:08:40.040 --> 1:08:43.120 a Virginian year of Virginia. Even though I'm in California 1:08:43.160 --> 1:08:45.040 for a few weeks and I teach here every other year, 1:08:45.040 --> 1:08:48.240 I'm a Virginian and I know that Spanberger was not 1:08:48.360 --> 1:08:51.080 my choice. But Governor Spanburger ran as a moderate. Is 1:08:51.120 --> 1:08:52.439 she governing as a moderate? 1:08:54.160 --> 1:08:57.719 Well, the legislature still certainly not governing as a moderate 1:08:57.760 --> 1:09:00.400 with all the different bills being introduced on it's the 1:09:00.439 --> 1:09:04.360 tax increases, bringing back a death tax, as we've talked about, 1:09:04.520 --> 1:09:07.519 the regional greenhouse gas initiative, you know, and those things 1:09:07.520 --> 1:09:10.200 are not making it tour desk in many cases yet, 1:09:10.360 --> 1:09:12.840 so the jury is still out, you know. 1:09:12.880 --> 1:09:15.160 We'll see what she does with some of these. I 1:09:15.160 --> 1:09:16.160 mean during the campaign. 1:09:16.200 --> 1:09:19.400 For instance, a massive issue for job creation in Virginia 1:09:19.600 --> 1:09:21.960 is the right to work status right or you're going 1:09:22.000 --> 1:09:23.720 to have a forced union workforce. 1:09:24.000 --> 1:09:26.280 This is something that she said she would not sign 1:09:26.360 --> 1:09:30.360 during the campaign. We'll see if she actually follows that. 1:09:30.520 --> 1:09:32.680 And as you know, you governor's got a lot of 1:09:32.720 --> 1:09:36.040 times let laws become law without their signature. 1:09:36.160 --> 1:09:37.840 So there's a way to wheeze a lot of that, 1:09:37.920 --> 1:09:38.519 I suppose. 1:09:39.120 --> 1:09:41.439 But it's a good point that she did campaign as 1:09:41.439 --> 1:09:45.639 a moderate against wins seers, and based on what's happening 1:09:45.640 --> 1:09:48.720 with her party there in the Virginia General Assembly, she's 1:09:48.720 --> 1:09:49.800 going to be put to that test. 1:09:49.800 --> 1:09:52.960 Offully soon, Jonathan, do you think that they are more 1:09:53.720 --> 1:09:57.200 likely to make big mistakes in Virginia because they feel 1:09:57.280 --> 1:10:00.040 that it's not as mobile a population as California. The 1:10:00.160 --> 1:10:03.599 California's population was very mobile, and the people who made 1:10:03.640 --> 1:10:06.200 incomes left and now the billionaires are leaving and the 1:10:06.760 --> 1:10:09.160 capital is mobile. But if you're working for the federal 1:10:09.240 --> 1:10:11.840 government and you're in the northern suburbs of Virginia, you 1:10:11.960 --> 1:10:14.840 got to stay there. They are they indifferent to those people? 1:10:16.680 --> 1:10:18.720 Well, there is that argument to say, where are you 1:10:18.760 --> 1:10:20.160 going to go? Maryland or DC? 1:10:20.400 --> 1:10:23.600 And we can be arguably worse, Although some of the 1:10:23.640 --> 1:10:25.800 proposals you see out of Richmond right now would make 1:10:25.880 --> 1:10:28.120 Virginia the high tax state in the region. So you 1:10:28.120 --> 1:10:30.320 could see a reversal of the folks that have left 1:10:30.320 --> 1:10:33.320 Maryland and DC over the years to escape to the 1:10:33.320 --> 1:10:35.479 freedom loving side of the Potomac, as we used to 1:10:35.479 --> 1:10:36.439 call it in Virginia. 1:10:37.080 --> 1:10:38.280 You could see a reversal of that. 1:10:38.360 --> 1:10:41.120 But keep in mind, I was just with Governor Patrick 1:10:41.160 --> 1:10:44.840 Morsey this week in Charleston, West Virginia, and you had 1:10:44.920 --> 1:10:48.720 Virginia losing population, Glenn Young and trying to address that. 1:10:49.040 --> 1:10:52.759 West Virginia had lost population uninterrupted for one hundred years, 1:10:53.120 --> 1:10:56.040 and this most recent batch of census data showed that 1:10:56.160 --> 1:10:59.840 West Virginia actually gained six thousand residents on net from 1:10:59.840 --> 1:11:02.840 the other states. And so Harper's Ferry just west of 1:11:02.880 --> 1:11:06.440 the metro DC area here in Jefferson County, West Virginia. 1:11:07.160 --> 1:11:08.680 I think it's a great bet if you're a real 1:11:08.760 --> 1:11:11.559 estate investor in Jefferson County right now, because I think 1:11:11.600 --> 1:11:14.559 that's going to become the low cost, limited government area 1:11:14.600 --> 1:11:16.840 for people that still want to commute to the DC metro. 1:11:17.080 --> 1:11:20.280 Well, you anticipated me. I say West Virginia for last 1:11:20.280 --> 1:11:22.639 because I knew you were there in the last week. 1:11:22.800 --> 1:11:24.960 And I think you're going to see not a few 1:11:25.000 --> 1:11:28.960 people head for Harper's Ferry and beyond. It's not a 1:11:28.960 --> 1:11:34.400 bad commute. My general manager of the Salem station in 1:11:34.439 --> 1:11:37.679 the Beltway lives there and drives in every morning. It's 1:11:37.720 --> 1:11:42.280 not terrible commuteses like California commute. Actually, So what's going 1:11:42.320 --> 1:11:45.479 on in West Virginia that's attracting everyone besides the taxes? 1:11:47.120 --> 1:11:47.800 Well, you know, and. 1:11:47.720 --> 1:11:50.800 Governor Morrisey wants to continue to cut taxes this session too, 1:11:50.800 --> 1:11:54.400 to make that differential with Virginia even bigger. The other 1:11:54.439 --> 1:11:57.519 big thing is that this coming school year, the Hope 1:11:57.560 --> 1:12:00.960 Scholarship Plan that you've talked to our great board member, 1:12:01.000 --> 1:12:04.040 a Senator Patricia Rutger, who's really the heroin of national 1:12:04.080 --> 1:12:07.599 school choice movement. As the first universal school choice state 1:12:07.640 --> 1:12:10.600 with that Hope scot Ship that becomes truly universal and 1:12:10.640 --> 1:12:14.040 available to all families this coming school year. Now there's 1:12:14.080 --> 1:12:17.200 some efforts from some big government folks in West Virginia 1:12:17.240 --> 1:12:19.600 that would like to impede its progress and try to 1:12:19.600 --> 1:12:23.000 weaken it during this legislative session, but thankfully people like 1:12:23.040 --> 1:12:26.280 Senator Rutger and Governor Morrisey are standing strong. So you 1:12:26.280 --> 1:12:30.160 have that combination of school choice which benefits obviously families 1:12:30.160 --> 1:12:34.120 and kids, and you have the lower taxes, limited government regulations, 1:12:34.640 --> 1:12:38.760 and it becomes a really unescapable value creation to live 1:12:38.800 --> 1:12:40.880 on the West Virginia side of the line versus the 1:12:40.960 --> 1:12:43.200 Virginia side of the line. You know, you got access 1:12:43.240 --> 1:12:45.960 to Dallas Airport, and especially for those commuters as we 1:12:46.000 --> 1:12:48.439 are talking about you that maybe only need to come 1:12:48.439 --> 1:12:50.519 to d C two or three days a week, it 1:12:50.600 --> 1:12:53.360 becomes a whole lot more manageable. So you know, I'm 1:12:53.360 --> 1:12:55.639 a big fan of what's going on in West Virginia, 1:12:55.720 --> 1:12:57.880 and I think the folks in Richmond how to pay 1:12:57.920 --> 1:13:00.400 awfully close attention to that question. 1:13:00.479 --> 1:13:02.599 Jonathan. By the way, Senator Rucker is one of our 1:13:02.640 --> 1:13:05.280 favorite guests that the annual ALEC get together. She and 1:13:05.360 --> 1:13:07.680 Danny Perez are one two punch the speaker of the 1:13:07.720 --> 1:13:11.720 Florida House. But how many people are using the Hope Scholarship? 1:13:11.760 --> 1:13:13.439 Do you have an actual head count yet of how 1:13:13.439 --> 1:13:16.160 many people have raised their hand in West Virginia and 1:13:16.200 --> 1:13:16.960 said I want that. 1:13:18.760 --> 1:13:20.519 You know, it's a really impressive number. 1:13:20.520 --> 1:13:23.679 I think they've cleared to ten thousand student hurdle here, 1:13:23.880 --> 1:13:26.960 which is really important as they continue to build progress 1:13:26.960 --> 1:13:29.640 and it becomes truly universal in this coming school year, 1:13:29.680 --> 1:13:31.840 I think you're going to see those numbers added toe 1:13:31.840 --> 1:13:34.000 and you add that to the great new numbers just 1:13:34.040 --> 1:13:36.160 out of Texas this week yesterday that you might have 1:13:36.240 --> 1:13:38.719 seen reported where they've already had a couple of tens 1:13:38.760 --> 1:13:43.320 of dozens of individuals now joining that new education freedom 1:13:43.920 --> 1:13:45.240 plan that they just opened up. 1:13:45.560 --> 1:13:47.559 Yeah, I did not know that, but it's the greatest 1:13:47.560 --> 1:13:50.080 thing going on in the country's education freedom and in 1:13:50.080 --> 1:13:52.960 fact The incentive that Ted Cruz put into the Big 1:13:53.000 --> 1:13:55.880 Beautiful Bill is working all across the United States. I'm 1:13:55.880 --> 1:13:58.880 sure ALEC is helping it do that. Go to ALC 1:13:59.160 --> 1:14:01.400 dot org. Shoot if you want to hear from Jonathan 1:14:01.479 --> 1:14:04.240 and his colleagues over at the American Legislative Exchange Council 1:14:04.240 --> 1:14:05.920 about what's going on in the state and the states 1:14:05.920 --> 1:14:08.000 are great sponsor. Love talking to Jonathan