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Speaker 1: Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things

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Speaker 1: Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to

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Speaker 1: take advantage of the many free online courses there, and

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Speaker 1: them at q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google,

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Speaker 1: Apple iTunes and Hillsdale Grace America. Good Thursday to you

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Speaker 1: from the Relief Factor Studio West. I'm beginning the program

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Speaker 1: with the former Israeli Ambassador the United States, former Deputy

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Israel, doctor Michael Oran. You can follo

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Speaker 1: him on exit d R Michael Orran, Ambassador Oran. I

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Speaker 1: think we're about to get into a battle with Iran.

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Speaker 1: I don't care about the talks tomorrow unless they give

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Speaker 1: them the Assaud option and Hamini capitulates, which I don't

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Speaker 1: see happening. That's where I think it's going. What do

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Speaker 1: you think.

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Speaker 2: I think so too.

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Speaker 3: I think so too.

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Speaker 2: Let me dug down a little bit and just what's

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Speaker 2: happened of the last week.

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Speaker 4: Because we sort of opened with that drone approaching the

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Speaker 4: USS Lincoln. I'm getting shot down at a champ by

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Speaker 4: Iranian missile boats. Try to take over an American tanker,

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Speaker 4: American flag tanker in the Gulf of for moves.

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Speaker 2: Why would Heron do this big question?

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Speaker 4: Why would he ron try to provoke the United States

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Speaker 4: into launching a war now?

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Speaker 2: And the answer is this, I think the Irinians understand what.

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Speaker 4: You understand, Hugh, that these negotiations are going nowhere that

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Speaker 4: maybe they can conceive part of their nuclear program. What

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Speaker 4: is their conceed It's it's half destroyed at least already.

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Speaker 4: And secondly, you know they're not going to give up

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Speaker 4: their support for terrorist groups. They're not going to give

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Speaker 4: up their missile program. This is in their DNA, It's

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Speaker 4: who they are. And so the question is when does

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Speaker 4: the America strike. And since America's building up his forces

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Speaker 4: very rapidly in the Middle East, now that.

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Speaker 2: The hw Bush aircraft charriage is on route in approaching.

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Speaker 4: The area, the Irrinians would rad to have this, have

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Speaker 4: the America attack earlier or rather than later.

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Speaker 2: And they think they can maybe survive it, and they maybe.

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Speaker 4: Can cause prohibitive damage to American naval vessels and forces

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Speaker 4: in the Middle East and force and cease fire.

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Speaker 2: They are relying on the experience they.

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Speaker 4: Had last summer when the Ryans fired rather performatively at Katar,

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Speaker 4: and Trump quickly called for ceasefire.

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Speaker 2: They were going to make up his calculation on this.

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Speaker 4: But that's what I'm thinking to me, there's no other

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Speaker 4: reason why this drone approached the USS Lincoln. Why these

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Speaker 4: missile boats try to take an American flag tanker is

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Speaker 4: to provoke the United States into a military confrontation sooner

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Speaker 4: rather than later.

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Speaker 1: So, Michael, why would they want to do that because

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Speaker 1: we've already got there a lot of force. I assume

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Speaker 1: they will strike at Israel. Israel will join in. It

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Speaker 1: will be an overwhelming punishment that I think will end

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Speaker 1: up with regime decapitation. Do they not believe that?

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Speaker 4: I think that right now they understand that the United

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Speaker 4: States position military deployment in the Middle East is not

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Speaker 4: as a height.

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Speaker 2: It's far from it.

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Speaker 4: Right now, you have one aircraft carrier there, best of

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Speaker 4: my knowledge, the aircraft carriers about ninety planes. Of those

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Speaker 4: about seventy warplanes. You have other planes safe in the area,

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Speaker 4: You have bases. But listen, even generally, even in President

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Speaker 4: Biden on October eighth, twenty twenty three, cent two aircraft

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Speaker 4: carriers off the coast of Lebanon the Ford in the

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Speaker 4: Eisenhower and that was considered a formidable force, not a

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Speaker 4: force for war, but war.

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Speaker 2: For preventing war. And you need a much bigger build

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Speaker 2: up if.

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Speaker 4: You're going to take on a country of ninety million

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Speaker 4: people that is more than the size of France and

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Speaker 4: Germany combined. It is a very huge country, armed with

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Speaker 4: thousands of rockets, many thousands of drones, and then it

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Speaker 4: has positions throughout the Middle East. It has all these proxies.

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Speaker 3: And you know all.

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Speaker 2: The difficulties the US Navy had in fighting the Goodies.

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Speaker 4: I have a colleague who was an officer in the

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Speaker 4: US Navy was involved in that in that campaign, told

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Speaker 4: me it was the biggest combat operation that the US

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Speaker 4: Navy has had since World War Two.

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Speaker 2: Messages from the Hoodies alone.

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Speaker 4: And had a very difficult time because they were firing

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Speaker 4: between thirty and forty rockets at US Naval vestas every day,

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Speaker 4: and they had to do all these face if maneuvers.

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Speaker 4: In fact, at one point one of the airplanes off

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Speaker 4: the aircraft carrier went into the ocean because they were

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Speaker 4: moving so fast trying to swivel to avoid these oncoming rockets.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're going to get that from many.

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Speaker 4: Different directions from Iran, from the Syrian and Iraqi Iran

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Speaker 4: backed militias.

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Speaker 2: They also have rockets, and it's going to be a

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Speaker 2: big challenge.

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Speaker 4: The last time we spoke here we talked about I said,

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Speaker 4: remember the Sheffield right and the HMS the British destroyer

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Speaker 4: that was hit by an Exocet missile file by the

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Speaker 4: Argentinians during the Falklin Boards of nineteen eighty two. I

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Speaker 4: think we also have to remember the coal and two thousand,

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Speaker 4: the US naval vessels that was hit by a suicide

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Speaker 4: speedboat in Odden Harbor and Yemen in two thousand. Iran

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Speaker 4: has many, many of these speedboats. The hooties are perfectly

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Speaker 4: willing to blow themselves up.

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Speaker 2: They're big on market. So you're going to have you

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Speaker 2: coming at something like the USS.

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Speaker 4: Abraham Lincoln is going to have all the thrones, all

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Speaker 4: these rockets, all these missile boats coming at you. It

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Speaker 4: is going to be quite a challenge. So in order

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Speaker 4: to meet that challenge, you have to build up, build

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Speaker 4: up anti missile capability which is unrivaled anywhere in the world,

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Speaker 4: and that takes time, and I think dat armies understand that,

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Speaker 4: and they don't want to give President Trump at that time.

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Speaker 1: So ambasorin, I don't think Trump will go until he

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Speaker 1: has everything there. But as Admiral Montgomery said on this

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Speaker 1: program the day or Friday before the Monday we last talked,

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Speaker 1: no doubt we have one or two Ohio class Tomahawk

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Speaker 1: missile carrying submarines. We have all of the Air Force

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Speaker 1: assets that have been moved to the variety of bases,

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Speaker 1: and we have the Israeli Air Force, and we have

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Speaker 1: the first carrier and the second carriers en route. If

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Speaker 1: we cannot decapitate a regime or overwhelm it with force,

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Speaker 1: with that, then the United States isn't a superpower and

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Speaker 1: we don't have to invade. We're not going to invade.

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Speaker 1: If we can't do it, that can't be done. What

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Speaker 1: in fact Israel to do if we begin that campaign.

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Speaker 2: Before I answer that, let me tell you.

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Speaker 4: Let me tell you about whether America, what America can

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Speaker 4: and cannot do. I think the expectation is not just

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Speaker 4: a whole. The expectation is that once America acts against

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Speaker 4: the regime, that the people once again rise up. Typicular

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Speaker 4: they see that the regime's hands are tied, that it's

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Speaker 4: on its hind legs, they'll rise up again. And that

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Speaker 4: is where the regime gets its koudi gras, not to say,

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Speaker 4: from American missiles, but from its own people, as.

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Speaker 2: It should be, by the way, and here we get

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Speaker 2: to the reason why nine Arab and Muslim.

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Speaker 4: Countries pressured President Trump to go back to the negotiating

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Speaker 4: table even after the Iranians have balked at meeting with

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Speaker 4: the President and other Arab Middle East term representatives in

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Speaker 4: acre Instable this week, and they move the talks to Aman.

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Speaker 4: It's interesting, Hugh, that these these nine countries share Israel

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Speaker 4: in America's interest in removing the nuclear threat from around,

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Speaker 4: removing the ballistic missile capability from on, and stopping Iran

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Speaker 4: support for terrorist groups throughout the.

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Speaker 2: Middle East of the world. That we all agree on.

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Speaker 4: That there's one point we are not on the same page,

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Speaker 4: and it's this.

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Speaker 3: It's this.

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Speaker 4: These countries want to see a weakened, emasculated Iran. They

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Speaker 4: don't necessarily want the Iranan regime to fall, because if

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Speaker 4: you see a regime falling as a result of a

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Speaker 4: popular uprising, that won't be good.

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Speaker 2: For those countries.

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Speaker 4: They aren't democracies and they don't want that precedent, so

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Speaker 4: they would like to see just Iran, you know, sort

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Speaker 4: of defangt toothless.

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Speaker 2: But I think the United States and.

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Speaker 4: Israel together care about the Iranian people and care about

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Speaker 4: run Asi, and that sets us apart. Now as to

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Speaker 4: what Israel do. Israel defend itself. Israel has immense capabilities.

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Speaker 4: We're talking about an air force. The number of actual

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Speaker 4: airplanes we have is classified, but it is in the

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Speaker 4: hundreds plus other capabilities. We also have submarines.

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Speaker 2: We also have a.

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Speaker 4: Navy, and I measure that all of these assets will

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Speaker 4: be brought to bear. We will also have to spend

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Speaker 4: a tremendous amount of energy on missile defense because the

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Speaker 4: audience have these missiles.

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Speaker 2: They are quite large.

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Speaker 4: I think the last time I spoke on the Protram,

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Speaker 4: I talked about the warheads, which are about twenty times

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Speaker 4: the size of a rocket that has follow a rocket that.

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Speaker 2: Hamas will fire.

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Speaker 4: That our safe rooms can be of little utility of

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Speaker 4: protecting us in the face of these massive rockets.

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Speaker 2: They can take down a neighborhood, and we're going to

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Speaker 2: have to have quickly quickly to locate the launchers.

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Speaker 4: The point is Iran may have one thousand, five hundred

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Speaker 4: ballistic missiles left, but it doesn't have one thousand, five

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Speaker 4: hundred launchers. If we could knock out the launchers very

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Speaker 4: very quickly, those missiles will be useless.

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Speaker 1: So doctor Oran, I also have a friend in the

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Speaker 1: United States Navy who is deployed in the Gulf during

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Speaker 1: Round one with the Hooties, and it was an annoyance,

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Speaker 1: but this officer was not worried about attacks on carriers,

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Speaker 1: although I am and I thought, I've been repeating your

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Speaker 1: warning about the Sheffield ever since you made it to me.

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Speaker 1: It reminded me of nineteen eighty two about it with

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Speaker 1: brit Hume yesterday. I do believe that everything has to

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Speaker 1: go at once in order to decapitate the regime. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's a ninety million, ninety two million

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Speaker 1: person regime. I think it's one hundred and fifty thousand

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Speaker 1: members of the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Just finished

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Speaker 1: reading a book on them, Empire of Evil by Mark Soliski,

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Speaker 1: which came out four years ago, but the numbers are

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Speaker 1: probably still the same. They're ideological, they are corrupt. They

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Speaker 1: are completely glued to Hamani. They can't give up, and

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Speaker 1: that people will kill them. So it's one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand people. You got another half million people in

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Speaker 1: the Iranian army, but they are not as ideologically fanatical

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Speaker 1: as that. Do you think what John Thune told me yesterday,

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Speaker 1: The objective of this ought to be regime change, not occupation.

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Speaker 1: Regime change. We have one minute, doctor worn.

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Speaker 2: Listen, I have to be very cross this year because

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Speaker 2: we don't position.

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Speaker 4: There are by people already saying that Israel's pushing America

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Speaker 4: into this war, and it's for Israel's interests. It's all

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Speaker 4: thattayak who's doing And I don't want to push anybody

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Speaker 4: into any war. But the question of regime change are

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Speaker 4: not regime change almost a mood point, because if the

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Speaker 4: Iranians theoretically were agreed to give up their nuclear program,

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Speaker 4: give up their missiles, and stop supporting his Balla Alhaja

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Speaker 4: Musk and al Kudz force which operates tear around the world,

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Speaker 4: then it's not the same regime anymore, is it. It's

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Speaker 4: basically a regime change, as if the regime is incapable

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Speaker 4: of making those changes. What alternative is there. It's kind

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Speaker 4: of a moot point.

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Speaker 1: I agree, and I also think I agree with britt

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Speaker 1: Hereman yesterday. Having built up this kind of force in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, not to use it would significantly deteriorate

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Speaker 1: America's deternity. Doctor Orm. We'll talk again next week. I

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Speaker 1: appreciate the special appearance on the Thursday. Stand by me,

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Speaker 1: Welcome back America. Open source Intel reporting at this hour,

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Speaker 1: the US air lift activity for the Iran operation has

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Speaker 1: hit at least one hundred and two C seventeen and

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Speaker 1: C five flights into Sentcom as of February five. That

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Speaker 1: includes fifty eight arrivals at our air base in Jordan,

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Speaker 1: thirteen arrivals at our air base and cut Her, twelve

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Speaker 1: arrivals at our air base in Saudi Arabia, nine arrivals

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Speaker 1: at Diego Garcia, which is a British Indian ocean territory

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Speaker 1: which does have quite a lot of our stuff there.

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Speaker 1: I didn't think that the Iranians had a missile capable

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Speaker 1: of getting to Diego Garcia, but no chances of being

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Speaker 1: taken there. Kuwait seven arrivals, Bahrain three arrivals. I started

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Speaker 1: thinking that's low and pending flights twelve and I would

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Speaker 1: guess they're going to go to Bahrain. So that is

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Speaker 1: a build up without precedent. I think bigger than the

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Speaker 1: one before midnight hammer by a lot. And Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Netanyahu warned his Knesset today that the conditions for the

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Speaker 1: collapse of the regime are mounting, and I do think

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Speaker 1: that is a partial explanation for the schizophrenic activity coming

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Speaker 1: out of Iran. Some members of the regime, senior military members, spokespeople,

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Speaker 1: are attempting to intimidate the United States via their statements,

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Speaker 1: and they're showing of pictures of missiles and stuff like that,

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Speaker 1: pronouncements that are poking the bear, and then actions by

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Speaker 1: Iran to actually poke the bear, like attacking the Abraham

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Speaker 1: Lincoln with a drone. They could do drone swarms, they

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Speaker 1: could put up a lot of drones, but the Lincoln

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Speaker 1: can move, and I'm not sure their drones are that good.

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Speaker 1: But all of our ships will not be sitting around

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Speaker 1: waiting for a drone to find it. The airbases can't move,

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Speaker 1: which is why the THAD Theater Altitude Deployment System and

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Speaker 1: the Patriot missiles are being deployed to our stationary basis

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Speaker 1: they have a GPS. Very very likely that America will

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Speaker 1: be hit hard, not continental the United States, but our

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Speaker 1: bases and our people at sea and on land in

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Speaker 1: the region if this begins, and I think it's going

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Speaker 1: to begin, because I don't believe the Iranians are going

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Speaker 1: to give up anything that they have. They have to capitulate. Basically,

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Speaker 1: if they give up what they has been demanded of them,

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Speaker 1: they will have to capitulate. I am afraid that the

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Speaker 1: Special Envoy is invested in envoying, but mister Widcoff has

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Speaker 1: pulled off a lot thus far this year, so hopefully

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Speaker 1: he will continue to do so. We'll talk with Jim

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Speaker 1: Tallan after the break. Donald Trump at the prayer Bakfast

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Speaker 1: today Cut number twenty.

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Speaker 5: Under the Trump administration was standing strongly behind the Americans

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Speaker 5: of faith, stopping the attacks on our values, our traditions,

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Speaker 5: defending religious liberty.

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Speaker 1: Cut number twenty two.

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Speaker 5: The Department of Justice recently charged individuals from for storming

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Speaker 5: a church in Minnesota during a worship service and trampling

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Speaker 5: on Americans First Amendment rights.

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Speaker 6: I watched that.

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Speaker 1: Type and you know that was violent.

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Speaker 5: I saw the people sitting there Pam and they were scared.

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Speaker 5: They were well, some were scared and some were holding

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Speaker 5: up their hands like I believe in God.

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Speaker 1: But they were violent people.

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Speaker 5: Screaming your parents and Nazis. Your parents had Nazis. The

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Speaker 5: people are sitting and I thought the minister was great,

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Speaker 5: he was so calm and good.

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Speaker 3: They's screaming at him.

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Speaker 6: Terrible right in the middle of.

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Speaker 1: A church service.

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Speaker 5: It's got to be illegal. I mean, Pam is doing it.

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Speaker 5: I'm not doing it, but Pam is doing it. And

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Speaker 5: I'll tell you people are happy with the job that's

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Speaker 5: taking place because they're bad people.

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Speaker 6: They're bad people.

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Speaker 5: You have on one Trumpeter in particular that just I

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Speaker 5: watched his performance.

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Speaker 3: It was terrible.

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Speaker 6: They tried and use freemo, repressed.

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Speaker 5: And alls to get out of a criminal event.

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Speaker 1: They were. That was a horrible thing to witness. And

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Speaker 1: if we allowed that to go, and you wouldn't, You

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be able to have a church.

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Speaker 5: No, everybody would be afraid to go to church.

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Speaker 1: He is not wrong about that. Coming up, Senator Jim

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Speaker 1: Talent from a senator from the very jointing to talk

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Speaker 1: about Iran. Stay tuned, Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewett,

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Speaker 1: joined by a former United States Senator, Jim Talent, who's

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Speaker 1: on the Reague Institute Center for Security.

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Speaker 6: Uh.

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Speaker 1: Center, Talent, your assessment of what's going on with Iran?

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Speaker 7: I think the odds that we're going to strikech are

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Speaker 7: very very high. You uh, there's You've been talking all

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Speaker 7: day about the three things that we want. No nukes,

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Speaker 7: no support for the proxies, and no ballistic missiles. Well,

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Speaker 7: the new program has pretty much gone. Their economies collapsed.

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Speaker 7: I can't imagine they're sending much money to Hesbalaut, but

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Speaker 7: they still have a substantial ballistic missile arsenal. So the

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Speaker 7: big win for the administration is if we get some

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Speaker 7: kind of regime realignment or recalibration, if somebody wearing a

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Speaker 7: military cap takes over from Homine and decides to play

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Speaker 7: ball with us. But if they don't, we're going to

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Speaker 7: go after the ballistic missiles directly. That's what I think

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Speaker 7: is going to happen. And you know the issue is

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Speaker 7: when your guess is as good as mine, they're certainly

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Speaker 7: getting ready now.

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Speaker 1: Center Talent at the Regan Institute Center for Peace through Strength.

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Speaker 1: It believes in muscular foreign policy. But we haven't seen

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Speaker 1: a build up like this since the invasion of Iraq

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Speaker 1: and two carrier groups, all of these fads and patriots,

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Speaker 1: no boots on the ground planned and not that we

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Speaker 1: know of, and certainly doesn't look that way. Are you

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Speaker 1: still nevertheless worried about American casualties at our bases and

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Speaker 1: on our ships?

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Speaker 3: You always worry you.

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Speaker 7: I remember as a kid listening to your old boss,

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Speaker 7: Dick Nixon talking about the Vietnam War and how much

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Speaker 7: casualties it he had gone down, but he said, you know,

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Speaker 7: one casualty's won too many.

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Speaker 3: So and we all feel that way.

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Speaker 7: But that's why we have send coom planners, Admiral Cooper,

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Speaker 7: That's why we have the Joint Staff under General Kine,

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Speaker 7: That's why we have the Undersecretariat for Policy in the

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Speaker 7: Department of Defense, you know, to prepare to advise the

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Speaker 7: President whether there's something like this can be done within

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Speaker 7: an acceptable margin of risk. And I think clearly they've

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Speaker 7: told them that they can, that they can do it.

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Speaker 7: And my experience through the years is that when we're

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Speaker 7: in a basically non competitive environment in the sense that

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Speaker 7: the air defenses have not proven effective and we're going

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Speaker 7: up against a non peer competitor, and we have time

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Speaker 7: to build up. We're very good at this, so I

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Speaker 7: have a fairly high confidence level. But of course you're

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Speaker 7: gonna worry until it's over, and nobody can guarantee there

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Speaker 7: won't be any losses. I mean, that's just not possible.

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Speaker 7: But these are substantial Americans secure already interests that we

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Speaker 7: can gain by this operation, and I think the President's

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Speaker 7: decided he's going to do it if we don't get

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Speaker 7: a diplomatic solution.

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Speaker 3: I think he's right.

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Speaker 1: Ambassador ORNs twice in a week reminded me of the

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Speaker 1: British ship the Sheffield, which was hit by an Exocet

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Speaker 1: missile in the Falklands conflict in nineteen eighty two. It

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Speaker 1: was a lucky hit, but it killed a lot of

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Speaker 1: British sailors anyway and sunk the ship. What is the

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Speaker 1: threat to the Lincoln or any of the destroyers or

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Speaker 1: support ships, do you think.

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Speaker 7: Well, it's obviously the anti ship crews and ballistic missiles,

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Speaker 7: but we know about that. I mean, those ships have

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Speaker 7: very sophisticated air defense systems. We're going to take out

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Speaker 7: the launchers as quickly as we can. They're going to

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Speaker 7: try and achieve tactical surprise. And with all due respect

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Speaker 7: to our allies, the Brits, you know, our navy, which

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Speaker 7: and they had a much better navy in nineteen eighty two,

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Speaker 7: but nowhere near even relatively speaking, as good as ours now.

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Speaker 7: So this is why you people who all my former

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Speaker 7: colleagues and colleagues who want to be president, these are

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Speaker 7: the kind of decisions you got to make. I think

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Speaker 7: it's time to do this. I think I think the

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Speaker 7: administration is determined to eliminate the Iranian threat, which has

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Speaker 7: been with us for fifty years. It's necessary to do

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Speaker 7: that to achieve our vital national interest in the Middle East.

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Speaker 7: Read the National Security Strategy, page five, and I think

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Speaker 7: I think the President is determined, and we got the

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Speaker 7: best guys and gals in the world, and if we

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Speaker 7: have to do it, I think will be successful.

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Speaker 1: Now. Britta Hume was my guest yesterday, Jim, and he said,

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Speaker 1: and after many years of watching presidents, if a president

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Speaker 1: leans this far forward as President Trump has, if nothing happens,

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Speaker 1: his deterrence is injured. Do you agree with him?

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Speaker 7: Yes, oh, absolutely, And the president knows that. I mean,

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Speaker 7: that's why he would not have said this as often

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Speaker 7: as he's at it if he did not intend to

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Speaker 7: order a strike in the event the diplomatic channels fail,

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Speaker 7: And I'm not quite as down on that as some

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Speaker 7: other people are. I think part of this may be

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Speaker 7: to pressure this regime. Well, there's no question the president's

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Speaker 7: got leverage because he's in this case, it's military leverage,

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Speaker 7: and he's increasing the pressure on the regime, which is

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Speaker 7: one reason I think why this is going on for weeks.

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Speaker 7: Imagine what that's like in their bunkers view, especially since

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Speaker 7: so many of their people have already been taken out.

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Speaker 7: And I know again there's concern about what they might

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Speaker 7: do in response, but you I bet anything, we're holding

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Speaker 7: secondary deterrence in reserve. In other words, if they respond

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Speaker 7: and attack Americans, they know we can come back with

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Speaker 7: even more. And what about the Israelis. If they don't

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Speaker 7: go in in the first wave, they may go in

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Speaker 7: in the second. So you know, I'd much rather be

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Speaker 7: on our side making these decisions.

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Speaker 3: Then on the Mulla side.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to talk with you about timing after the break,

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Speaker 1: But can you run through what you would assess the

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Speaker 1: response to an actual hit on a carrier or a

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Speaker 1: destroyer that took a lot of sailors lives.

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Speaker 7: Well, we go in with everything then, and that would

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Speaker 7: probably trigger an attack on directly on the Iranian economy.

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Speaker 7: You've talked about Cark Island and I can't pronounce it either,

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Speaker 7: by the way, the way the Iranians do. You've talked

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Speaker 7: about that, I mean at that point, and again the

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Speaker 7: president's warned that about that, and we've seen how sensitive

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Speaker 7: he's been in the past to taking American casualties.

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Speaker 3: So we're going very heavy then.

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Speaker 7: You know, the power of an aircraft carrier task force,

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Speaker 7: not to mention the submarines, not to mention the long

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Speaker 7: range precision strike aircraft.

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Speaker 3: We've got the V two's.

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Speaker 7: If we have targets that don't have effect of anti

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Speaker 7: air defenses, they're just helpless.

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Speaker 1: You I'm doing my math in my head. And if

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Speaker 1: the Israeli Air Force gets involved, it's five hundred bomb

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Speaker 1: delivering precision munitions every cycle from the ship to the

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Speaker 1: sea and from the Israeli Air Force. But it's an

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Speaker 1: incredible amount of firepower.

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Speaker 7: It will turn, you know, eight hundred sorties into several

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Speaker 7: thousand sorties and just be absolutely devastating. And so again,

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Speaker 7: they've got to be thinking about that too, before they unleash,

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Speaker 7: you know, hundreds of missiles at US.

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Speaker 1: Stand by Cenator Town. I'm going to ask you about

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Speaker 1: timing when we come back to the u ushef stay

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Speaker 1: turned in America. Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh Hewett, Centertor

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Speaker 1: of Talent, is still with me because I wanted to

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Speaker 1: talk to him about the window in which he believes

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Speaker 1: battle with Iran will begin. What's your estimate, Center of Talent.

439
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 3: Well, let's look at the reasons for the delay. I

440
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 3: think there were three.

441
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 7: One of them is so we could build up that's

442
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 7: got to be near completion now you've been tracking the

443
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 7: forces that have been coming into the region. The second

444
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 7: was diplomatic because, as doctor Warren said, our allies and

445
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 7: partners want all the things we want with their round,

446
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 7: but the Gulf States in particular, probably nbs IS, they're

447
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 7: nervous about whether a military conflict will destabilize the region.

448
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 7: And I think the third reason is the president is

449
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 7: letting the regime sweat. I mean, he's seeing that they've

450
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 7: been pushed to the edge.

451
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: We locked you there, Jim, and we don't know.

452
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know how much.

453
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: You.

454
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 7: Yeah, they're pushed to the edge and we're waiting to

455
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 7: see if they'll break. I mean, as I said, they're

456
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 7: the ones who are sweating at this point. Yeah, we're

457
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 7: concerned about our servicemen and women, but we've done this

458
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 7: kind of thing before, So I think those are the reasons.

459
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 7: And I think once we get the force package in place,

460
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 7: it could happen at any time.

461
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 1: And do you think the present beat us to the

462
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 1: punch because they have been known to go first before.

463
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 7: Well, to me, the two questions about this you other

464
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 7: than timing, and I have little doubt that the administration

465
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 7: will seek to engineer a tactical surprise, which they did

466
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 7: with Midnight Hammer. They'll do that again. To me, the

467
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 7: two questions with this are are the Israelis going to

468
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 7: join in initially with us? They certainly will if Iron

469
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 7: attacks them in response. And then the second is are

470
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 7: we going to attempt to decapitate the highest levels of

471
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 7: leadership Omane, the Mullahs, the IRG commanders, I mean a

472
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 7: lot of them have already been killed. Are we going

473
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 7: to do that or are we going to hold that

474
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 7: back to use for secondary deterrence? Those are tactical questions,

475
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 7: as is timing, and you unless you're read into these

476
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 7: briefings every day, I mean, you just don't know. But

477
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 7: I think they'll they'll try and engineer a tactical surprise.

478
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,160
Speaker 7: It's going to be interesting to see how they try

479
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 7: and do it.

480
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: Maybe the discombobulator will be deployed. Jim Talent, do you

481
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,360
Speaker 1: think that's an ends.

482
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 3: Could be?

483
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 7: We have a lot of ways of breaking the kill chain,

484
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,719
Speaker 7: and the Navy is particularly good at it and always

485
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 7: has been electronic countermeasures, jamming the radar. I mean, there's

486
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 7: there's all kinds of things. We're good at that and

487
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 7: which is one of the reasons we haven't had the

488
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 7: kind of disaster you're talking about. So again, it's it's

489
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 7: up to the president to decide whether we can do

490
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 7: this within an acceptable margin of risk.

491
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 3: But I think.

492
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 7: Clearly he has decided, and I would be surprised if

493
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 7: that's if that's not a well founded decision.

494
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: Center Jim Talent, always good to talk to you.

495
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 8: Following or fencing, we have seen the Iranian leadership wiring

496
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 8: money out of the country. So the rats are leaving

497
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 8: the ship and that is a good sign that they

498
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 8: know the end may be near.

499
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: Welcome back to America. I'm Hugh hewittt that with Treasury

500
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: Secretary Scott Besson on what the molocracy is doing right now.

501
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: I'm joined by Noah Rothman, senior writer at National Review.

502
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: No I just talked to Ambassador Oran, who believes they

503
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 1: Iranians attempted to bake the United States into striking too

504
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: soon yesterday or this week with the attack on the

505
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: Lincoln by the drone and the attempt to seize the

506
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: oil ship. They took two cargo ships today or two

507
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: freighters today? What do you think? What's your assessment of

508
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: what's going on over there.

509
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 9: So that was a very interesting interview with Ambassador Oran.

510
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 9: I hope your listeners caught it. That they didn't, they

511
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 9: should catch up with it. He painted a pretty dire situation,

512
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 9: very dire scenario, and it concerns me. It's the worst

513
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 9: case scenario, and we've talked about it previously, the notion

514
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 9: that the Iranian military or the IRGC will throw everything

515
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 9: they can at US assets, particularly naval assets, but also

516
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 9: its bases and its partner bases around the region, and

517
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 9: it would be a significant challenge. They would attempt to

518
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 9: in my view, engineer sinking of a US warship, but

519
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 9: that would require a lot of assets. Now here's the

520
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 9: other situation scenario rather that the ambassador did not bring up.

521
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:24,120
Speaker 9: Is that that situation, that scenario where Iran looses all

522
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 9: its munitions, all its ordinance, sacrifices future deterrent capability. This

523
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 9: is a regime that is hyper focused on survival. It

524
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 9: has a long time horizon. It is not necessarily going

525
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 9: to sacrifice all its missiles, all its drones in a

526
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 9: one off strike because it won't have them to deter

527
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 9: future aggression against future adversaries. We can anticipate that a

528
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 9: US operation will begin with, as Ambassador orre And said,

529
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 9: the striking of missile launch facilities and production facilities. So

530
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 9: Iran can be certain that its capabilities will be damaged

531
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 9: for the foreseeable future. It will take a long time

532
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 9: to spin up those productions facilities. So what it's got

533
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 9: is what it's got, and if it uses them, it

534
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 9: won't have them in the future. The turn capability is

535
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 9: something this regime would like to preserve, so we can't

536
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,479
Speaker 9: rule out the prospect of a calibrated response akin to

537
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 9: what it marshaled after the operation that destroyed its nuclear

538
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 9: facilities in June.

539
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, the Iranians demonstrated in two thousand and twenty

540
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: when President Trump ordered Sillimani to be killed, that they

541
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 1: can hit a United States base. They hit Ali Sad

542
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 1: with array of ballistic missiles, and so they if there's

543
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: a GPS attached, we know they can hit it. Because

544
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 1: they hit Ali Sad. They injured a few American soldiers

545
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: that were left on the base, but we had warning

546
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: of it and we evacuated beforehand. What would be the

547
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 1: response if they actually did a serious casualty figure on America,

548
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,719
Speaker 1: much less taking out a carrier, which is five thousand people,

549
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: which is the nightmare scenario. What do you think the

550
00:28:58,600 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: response from America would be.

551
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 9: Well, the nightmare scenario that you just discussed would require

552
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 9: a very significant response, a response that would involve, basis

553
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 9: in the United States sending B twos with mops and

554
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 9: five thousand pounds bombs to attack regime targets, to attack

555
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 9: military targets as well as IRGC targets. We would make

556
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 9: an example of the Iranian nation.

557
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 10: That is not.

558
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 9: Because we would want to communicate to our adversaries in

559
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 9: Beijing and Moscow. What happens if you attack a carrier

560
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 9: not because of iron. That is the worst case scenario.

561
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 9: That's almost inconceivably bad for American prestige and American determ capabilities.

562
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 9: But a smaller response is possible to think about. And

563
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 9: the notion that the United States will not experience casualties

564
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 9: or fatalities in that response is not something you could

565
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 9: rule out. And how would Trump administration response, I think

566
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 9: that depends on how the American public response. Would the

567
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 9: American public regard this as an operation of choice, not

568
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 9: of military, an ass and therefore something we invited on ourselves,

569
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 9: or do they think it's an absolute imperative to get

570
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 9: rid of this regime by whatever means are necessary and

571
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 9: whatever comes after it is a good.

572
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 10: Problem to have.

573
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 9: I hope the American public would respond with the latter assumption.

574
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 9: But the President needs to make this case to the nation.

575
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 9: President needs to enlist the public in this project because

576
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 9: it is a national project. And the sooner he comes

577
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 9: before the public and says why we're doing this, the better.

578
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 1: I agree with that, by the way, because the first

579
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 1: part of that case is to announce how many people

580
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 1: we think they murdered. I think it's over thirty thousand

581
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 1: that hasn't sunk in Noah, and I don't know that

582
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: the American people have their arms around that yet. That

583
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: this regime is capable of murdering thirty thousand or more

584
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: of its own citizens in forty eight hours, and that therefore,

585
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: if they ever got a nuclear weapon or of ICBM

586
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: that could hit the United States with a dirty bomb

587
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: or whatever, they would do it. There's just nothing they wouldn't.

588
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 9: Do, absolutely, And that is so to say the scale

589
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 9: of the bloodshed, because it communicates to the public how

590
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 9: this regime views its own survival. It compelled its own

591
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 9: security forces to sign their death warrants with the execution

592
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 9: of their neighbors in the streets in January. This regime

593
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 9: regards survival, its own survival, their personal survival, as an imperative,

594
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 9: and nothing else compares, including the survival of the citizens

595
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 9: to which it is ostensibly dedicated. There's nothing that it

596
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 9: wouldn't do in order to preserve its own stability, its

597
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 9: own existence, and that does mean attacking the United States

598
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 9: with whatever weapons it has available, attacking the United States

599
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 9: on its own soil engineering, assassination campaigns, on American soil,

600
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 9: killing Americans by scores. That is what this regime does,

601
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 9: and it will not shy away from doing that. And

602
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 9: if it has no legitimacy at home, it has no

603
00:31:55,880 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 9: mechanism to rein it in. There's no domestic trigger that

604
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 9: the Iranian people can pull to impose some circumspection on

605
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 9: this regime. It is moderated and guided purely by the

606
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 9: Islamic Republic's Supreme leader's own sense of morality, and we've

607
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 9: not seen very much of that. It is really a

608
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 9: force that is untethered to anything beyond what this very

609
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 9: cloistered group of clerics is telling themselves.

610
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: It's a very dangerous regime. It's a twelfth mm End

611
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 1: Times regime, and I would encourage anyone to read deep

612
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: on this. Noah, you did post on your ex account

613
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: a picture of our base encatter that shows the deployment

614
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 1: of Patriot missiles over the last three weeks. I think

615
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: that explains why President Trump hasn't moved yet. And the

616
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: dispatch of the George H. W. Bush carrier tells me

617
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: the same that tomorrow's meeting may or may not produce

618
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: a second meeting, But I don't think it matters in

619
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: the end. You share my fatalism about this, Oh I do.

620
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 9: Yeah, we gave a little bit, and I kind of

621
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 9: wish we hadn't, But I understand why. The idea being

622
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 9: to keep the Arab States on board with the diplomatic track.

623
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 9: But we're too far apart. We are talking about the

624
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 9: nuclear program, which is under several tons of lightly irradiated rubble,

625
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 9: it's not really worth talking about. But we are also

626
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 9: talking about the ballistic missile program and the proxy terrorist groups.

627
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 9: The problem is that we want those things to go

628
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 9: away forever, and the regime wants them to exist forever

629
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 9: because they regard them as essential to their own survival.

630
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 9: So we're just too far apart to meet in the middle.

631
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 9: But Ambassador Orang's point is extremely important that the Arab

632
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 9: States are not democracies. They do not necessarily want to

633
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 9: see this regime fall from popular pressure. This is not

634
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 9: like the Arab Spring. We're talking about some conditions that

635
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 9: are sue generas very unique to Iran, so they have

636
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 9: a little bit less to be worried about in Riad,

637
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 9: although they should be worried about their own people. But

638
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 9: it is important for us to be able to communicate

639
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 9: and convey that what we want to see happen to

640
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 9: the Islamic Republic is an implosion, not an explosion, and

641
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 9: that will require sustained US power and presence in the

642
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 9: region for the foreseeable future and a soft landing space

643
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 9: for this regime elements of it that are willing to

644
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 9: either exile themselves or to work with a successor government,

645
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 9: because we do not want to see the collapse of

646
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 9: this regime into civil war and chaos and disunion, because

647
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 9: our partners abroad do not want.

648
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 3: To see that.

649
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 9: That might be distasteful, but it's real politique that we

650
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 9: will have to consider.

651
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 1: Well said as always, nosc Rothman. Follow him on x

652
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 1: from National Review. Nosc Rothman on Welcome Back in America.

653
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: I'm juq and Eliana Johnson is the editor in chief

654
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,720
Speaker 1: of the Washington Free Beacon. You can follow at Eleian

655
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 1: at y Johnson on AX Freebeacon dot com. She's also

656
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: almost daily contribute to the commentary podcast Eleana. I haven't

657
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 1: listened to the commentary podcast from this morning, but yesterday

658
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 1: just the last little bit was devoted to what's going

659
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 1: on in Iran. I opened the program with Ambassador or

660
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: In today who says, be very very very sure you

661
00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 1: know what you're getting into, because this is going to

662
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: be very ugly if we get into a shooting match

663
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 1: with Iran. What do you think about that?

664
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 11: I think that's right, and I think the President's aware

665
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 11: that this is a risky undertaking, which is part of

666
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 11: the reason he's taking his time. We did devote quite

667
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 11: a bit of time to talking about Iran today and

668
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 11: actually had a debate about whether the President wants to

669
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 11: engage in diplomacy as an off ramp and is really

670
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 11: reluctant to do something, and whether the Iranians, in harassing

671
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 11: the USS Abraham Lincoln with a drone, we're trying to,

672
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 11: as the ambassador suggested, force the US to act by

673
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 11: taunting the president before it's good and ready. So I'm

674
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 11: not sure which one of these two avenues. I actually

675
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 11: argued the second that I think the President is reluctant

676
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 11: to act, but will end up choosing action because it's

677
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:55,439
Speaker 11: the least worst option that he's presented with. But many

678
00:35:55,520 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 11: of my colleagues believed that the Iranian actions in sending

679
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 11: a drone over the USS Abraham Lincoln were intended to

680
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 11: force US action before they're ready because they know this

681
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 11: is going to be quite messy.

682
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 10: As the ambassador suggested, Well.

683
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 1: That's my take is that President Trump's going to go

684
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 1: when he wants to go, and that he's got a

685
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 1: big window. He tried to prevent a masker by posting

686
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: about it, but he couldn't. And any regime that will

687
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: kill thirty thousand of its own people in forty eight hours,

688
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 1: we cannot underestimate whatever they're doing. And they're probably lying

689
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 1: up their ducks as well. But I've talked to naval

690
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: officers and I believe that they are confident in their

691
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 1: ability to quickly suppress fire. But that doesn't mean that

692
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 1: a ship doesn't get blown up. Because the Sheffield in

693
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 1: the Falklands was a lucky shot from Argentina with an

694
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: aging EXO set. We know that the Iranians, when they

695
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 1: have a GPS can hit the GPS. They hit the

696
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 1: Alis Sad base after Solimani was killed. What do you

697
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 1: think do you think Americans are ready for this?

698
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 11: Well, I heard Noah Rothman say that President Trump needs

699
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 11: to make the case to the American people. I think

700
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 11: it's I think that's absolutely true, because I think there

701
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 11: are plenty of elements of the president's own base that

702
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 11: are skeptical of this, and I think it's worth speaking

703
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 11: to them, as well as the Americans who aren't a

704
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:20,919
Speaker 11: member of the president's party and attempting to persuade here

705
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 11: about why this is in the American interest. I also

706
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 11: think he should speak to the fact that in diplomacy,

707
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 11: in action is action. Hovering in the background of all

708
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 11: of this are the degradation of American credibility that Barack

709
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 11: Obama achieved by failing to act in Syria in twenty thirteen,

710
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 11: and that the Biden administration eroded over his four years.

711
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 11: And I think President Trump knows as his people prepare

712
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 11: to meet in Oman and negotiate with the Iranians, that

713
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 11: there's no such thing as real, honest negotiations with these people,

714
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,799
Speaker 11: and that he does not want he tore up the

715
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 11: first nuclear deal, but that he does not want to

716
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 11: be the second coming of Barack Obama. He's worked quite

717
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 11: hard to restore American credibility, and that's hovering in the

718
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 11: background here. No action is a deliberate choice in an action,

719
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 11: and I think he should speak to that.

720
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 1: And no action would be the destruction of the deterrent

721
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 1: that he's rebuilt, and it was destroyed by the JCPOA,

722
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: it was destroyed by the Redliner Ratier, it was permanently

723
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 1: damaged by Joe Biden's catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. But I

724
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: also think even if those had not happened, when a

725
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 1: massacre on the scale happens the United States, it's a

726
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 1: non nuclear power. The United States represents the West. It

727
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 1: really can't just not notice it. Eleon, and they'd killed

728
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: Americans for twenty for forty seven years, they cannot not

729
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: pretend that they're trying to kill us. Now.

730
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 11: Well, he the president, chose to speak up when Ron

731
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 11: was killing its people, which is why I think his crediblit,

732
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 11: he's on the line here when he speaks, if and

733
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 11: when he speaks to the American people, I really do

734
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 11: think he should speak more to the fact that this

735
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 11: is a regime that for the past fifty years, you know,

736
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 11: since nineteen seventy nine, how many, yeah, fifty plus years,

737
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 11: for the past half century plus, has devoted itself wholly

738
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 11: and entirely to murdering Americans, has American blood on its hands,

739
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:29,240
Speaker 11: and that weakening the external threat of Iran every action

740
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,800
Speaker 11: we take aimed at its nuclear ballistic or its support

741
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 11: for its terrorist proxies, itself weakens and degrades the internal

742
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 11: standing of the regime, because that is what this regime

743
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 11: is now.

744
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: One thing that has to be done and hasn't been

745
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:47,760
Speaker 1: done yet. It was done by President George HW. Bush

746
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 1: before Desert Storm. It was done before George W. Bush

747
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 1: ordered the invasion in Afghanistan and then the invasion of Iraq,

748
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,720
Speaker 1: which was to prepare the Americans for the worst case.

749
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 1: I mean, when we went into a rock first time

750
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,959
Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety one, they were telling us one hundred

751
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 1: thousand Americans could die. The second time, they were also

752
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 1: worried about what could happen in Iraq more than Afghanistan.

753
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 1: Does anyone have that sense of my gosh, your stomach

754
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 1: is in knots over this, because mine is well.

755
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 11: I think that's what's led to this long pause and

756
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 11: deliberation inside the administration. We have pretty good reporting that

757
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 11: three weeks ago or so, the President was prepared to

758
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,959
Speaker 11: act and called off an operation. And I think he's

759
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 11: grappling with this because all of the operations he's been

760
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 11: involved in, the assassination of customs Solimani, the Maduro operation.

761
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 11: They have not led to the deaths of American servicemen

762
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 11: and the withdrawal from American from Afghanistan's President Trump has

763
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 11: compared the operations he has ordered favorably to the withdrawal

764
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,800
Speaker 11: from Afghanistan that led to the deaths of thirteen American

765
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 11: service members. And we know that this president does not

766
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 11: want the blood the bodies of American service members on

767
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 11: his hand, and you have to imagine he's wrestling with

768
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 11: that quite hard.

769
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 1: I agree, but very quickly, Eliana. If he bring Hume

770
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 1: on the program, he actually said he can't back down

771
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 1: now or his credibility is shot in the American deterrent.

772
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 1: It's a shot. I agree with that, do you.

773
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 11: I think that's a black and white way to put it,

774
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 11: but I asolutely I'm not totally there, but I think

775
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 11: it absolutely would degrade the deterrent that he's spent the

776
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:31,240
Speaker 11: past year rebuilding from the degradation that took place during

777
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 11: the Obama and Biden administrations.

778
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 1: It would hurt Eliana Y. Johnson on X, editor in

779
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 1: chief of The Washington Free Beacon, participant in the commentary podcast.

780
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 1: Thank you for joining me. As always, Eleiana great to

781
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,880
Speaker 1: speak with. You don't not read the Washington Freebeacon go

782
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 1: every day. Check out what they put up for you

783
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 1: at freebeacon dot com, and do not miss one episode

784
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 1: of the commentary podcast. I'm joined by Josh Kraashauer. He

785
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 1: is the editor in chief of Jewish Insider. Josh. Welcome,

786
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 1: I want to read to you for it from Open

787
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 1: Source Intel that came out about fifteen minutes ago. Islamic

788
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: Revolutionary Guard General Yadullah Havani told Al Maya Dean first

789
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 1: unveiling the Kormashar four missile was a direct message to

790
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 1: the United States. Two, Iran will not trade away its

791
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 1: military capabilities at the negotiating table. Three the US returned

792
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 1: to talks in a weakened, in humiliated position, and four

793
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: the general says US power in the region has weakened.

794
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 1: What is that message?

795
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,240
Speaker 12: I think it's a combination of a lot of bluster

796
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 12: and a lot of intransigence and anyone expecting a breakthrough

797
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,280
Speaker 12: to come out of the talks between the United States

798
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 12: and Iran and scheduled this Friday, scheduled tomorrow in Oman,

799
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 12: I think is very optimistic.

800
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 3: They're definitely going.

801
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 12: Through the motions but there's been no sign publicly or

802
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 12: privately from the Iranians that they're willing to make the concessions,

803
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 12: even the basic concessions about their nuclear program, that the

804
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 12: Trump administration has demanded. And it looks like, you know,

805
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 12: the Iranians seem to be trying to buy some time

806
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 12: and trying to perhaps delay the inevitable, or perhaps trying

807
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 12: to buy time to you know, the delay inevitable and indefinitely.

808
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 3: But we'll see.

809
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 12: I think the Trump administration is pretty committed to going

810
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,879
Speaker 12: through with military action if they don't get any buying

811
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 12: from the Iranians on any any kind of diplomacy.

812
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 1: Josh I talked to Ambassador Orran at the beginning of

813
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 1: the program. He laid out a potentially very dire set

814
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 1: of reactions to a battle with Iran, including strikes on

815
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: our basis and perhaps on our carriers. That the Iranians

816
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 1: are pretty good at targeting their missiles. What do you

817
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 1: think is the risk level that the American people are

818
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 1: aware of?

819
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 12: Well, I think I think Michael Orian laid it out

820
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,800
Speaker 12: pretty pretty directly. You look at the public hue in

821
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 12: Israel and as opposed to last year with the war

822
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 12: against the strongard in Israel to dost some the Iranian

823
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 12: nuclear The public opinion in Israel is a lot more mixed.

824
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 12: In fact, it was just a very respected survey that

825
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:08,800
Speaker 12: came out this week showing fifty to fifty in Israel

826
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 12: between folks are who want Israel to know essentially be

827
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 12: publicly behind any ulitary strike, and another half predominantly from

828
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,959
Speaker 12: the outside of it, that are much more wary about

829
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 12: the consequences. And make no mistake that if the US

830
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 12: duk age and does strike Iran militarily, Israel is probably

831
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 12: a brunt of the constas.

832
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: Now Prime Minister and you know who addressed the Kinessa today,

833
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: and it is reported that he said there is a

834
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 1: build up of conditions toward a critical mass that could

835
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,919
Speaker 1: bring about the downfall of the Iranian regime. I don't

836
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 1: know if that's correct. Have you ever read Empire of

837
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 1: Terror by Mark Zelenski, Josh, it's about the IRGC. I

838
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 1: have none. Well, the IGCS one hundred and fifty thousand strong.

839
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 1: They are a very small portion of the ninety two

840
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:56,800
Speaker 1: million Iranians, but they run everything, and they're so deeply

841
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 1: encrusted on the regime. I don't think regime change is

842
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 1: a question of killing the Ayatolla. I think it's a

843
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 1: question of killing most of the i er g C.

844
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 1: Do you agree with that?

845
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, look, there's a lot of from Israel

846
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 12: to the Golf States. There's not an expectation that even

847
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 12: if you know, Committee disappeared or you know, was killed,

848
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 12: that there would be an automatic transition to a democracy

849
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 12: or much more humane government that the IERGC in a

850
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 12: life and they have, you know, they would natural inheritors.

851
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 12: So you know, there's a certainly the Golf States are

852
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 12: and in fact, I think part of the US delay,

853
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:41,439
Speaker 12: they're getting a lot of pushback I would imagine from

854
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 12: the Golf State allies.

855
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia ue.

856
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:48,720
Speaker 12: You know, the allies in the region are very worried

857
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:51,280
Speaker 12: about but what could happen if there is a long, long,

858
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 12: long term or more days of engagement against Iran and

859
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 12: Iran I've seen what they do and what they what

860
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 12: kind of what kind of damage they can.

861
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:01,760
Speaker 3: Cause of the region.

862
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, our friend Noah Rothman posted pictures over at his

863
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:08,399
Speaker 1: ex account nosc Rothman of our base and cutter two

864
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: weeks ago in today and the difference is Patriot Air

865
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:17,360
Speaker 1: Defense batteries have been deployed. I also saw online the

866
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 1: account of the traffic of the big C seventeens that

867
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 1: can carry the FAD systems anywhere in the world. They

868
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 1: were up and flying again last night. It's clear that

869
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 1: every air defense asset that we've got is deploying to

870
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 1: our bases in the region, because we remember the Iranians

871
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:37,760
Speaker 1: hit Ali Sad base on the nose when they wanted

872
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 1: to after Solimani was killed, so they can hit our bases.

873
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: Do you think the American public is aware of the

874
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:49,919
Speaker 1: actually the cost that this could bring with it. Well, yeah,

875
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 1: they have.

876
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 12: I mean you just let it out Q, both in

877
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 12: Iraq and Katar that they've done it, and it hasn't

878
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 12: been that long ago, so that that memory runs fresh.

879
00:46:58,200 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: And look, I.

880
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 3: Think there's been a lot of debate.

881
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 12: We've talked about this on the show qu on whether

882
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 12: Trump is actually going to.

883
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 1: Go forward with military strikes.

884
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 12: Obviously said he would after Iran slaughtered thousands of its

885
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 12: own citizens, but the reality is it wants to negotiate

886
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 12: with the I and it's gave a notable interview to

887
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 12: Makan Kelly this week where he was sort of expressing

888
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 12: out loud that the president was sort of bewildered that

889
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,440
Speaker 12: Iran can't even reach the Iyatola to directly negotiate in

890
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 12: the same way he has with other enemies like Vladimir

891
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 12: Putin or in the first term, with North Korea as

892
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:33,800
Speaker 12: a leader. So, I mean, I think it's a frustration.

893
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 12: I think Trump would love to do some kind of deal,

894
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 12: and that's what's driving a lot of the conversations and

895
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 12: the meeting in Oman tomorrow. But ultimately they have been

896
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 12: in transgend and that's who the Iranian regime is and

897
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 12: has always been.

898
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: You know, I want to close on that point. There

899
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 1: is no negotiating with this regime. They just murdered at

900
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: least thirty thousand of their own people, and some estimates

901
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 1: I've seen go twice and high and even higher. What

902
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 1: can you expect? I mean, really, just because Barack Obama

903
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 1: felt for this doesn't mean all American presidents are obliged

904
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,399
Speaker 1: to call for this. That's right, Hugh.

905
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 12: And look, I think it's a little bit of a

906
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 12: mixed message and that yes, these negotiations are about nuclear

907
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 12: and about the enrichment maybe missiles, but that's certainly been

908
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 12: the sensible focus.

909
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 1: But Trump has said.

910
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 12: It was about, you know, the slaughter, I mean, the

911
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 12: human rights abuses, the slaughter of your own citizens, the

912
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 12: support for Rubio sectoristic Rubo. It's also about the support

913
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 12: for tapes across the region in the world. This is

914
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 12: a reventeous regime that has caused untold around the world,

915
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 12: and I think it's important, you know, focus on that

916
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 12: big picture. I think Trump sometimes can kind of get

917
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 12: into the narrow details of a nuclear negotiation, but it's

918
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 12: a lot more than that, all right.

919
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,879
Speaker 1: I think he's also pretty good at throwing a lot

920
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 1: of dust into everybody's eyes about what is going on

921
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,320
Speaker 1: and when it's going to happen. He's done it, certainly

922
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 1: to everyone in the United States. I assume the Iranians

923
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 1: are Justice continued Josh Cross, our editor in chief of

924
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: Jewish Insider, always a pleague to talk to you. Come

925
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 1: to the on this Thursday. I will be returning later

926
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 1: in the program to the topic of the loving battle

927
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 1: with Iran. But there's some domestic news going on as well,

928
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:10,799
Speaker 1: and for that I have Sarah Bedford with me. She

929
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 1: is the investigations editor at the DC Examiner Washington Examiner.

930
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 1: You can follow her on ex at Sarah C. Bedford. Hello, Sarah,

931
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: how are you in very very cold beltwey Land.

932
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 10: I'm great, Thanks for having me. Yeah, still pretty cold here.

933
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm going back on Sunday, and I'm hoping it

934
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 1: will warm up a little bit before then, because going

935
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:30,879
Speaker 1: from California to the Belway is going to be quite

936
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:35,240
Speaker 1: the trip. Sarah, the Leader was on with me yesterday

937
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 1: lear Thoon, and he said the Democrats have not yet

938
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 1: made their demands on the DHS appropriations bill. Has anything

939
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 1: changed in twenty four hours? Have they laid out what

940
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:46,360
Speaker 1: they want yet?

941
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 13: Yes, Democrats have since laid out ten demands that they

942
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 13: have for the DHS funding bill, and to be honest,

943
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 13: most of them are non starters with Republicans. One of them,

944
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:01,840
Speaker 13: sort of as expected, was to require ICE agents CBP

945
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 13: agents to get a judicial warrant before.

946
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 10: They go to someone's home.

947
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,680
Speaker 13: That would effectively end the way that immigration enforcement is

948
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:14,440
Speaker 13: conducted now. With an administrative warrant through administrative courts, it's

949
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,919
Speaker 13: a totally different type of law enforcement, and to bring

950
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 13: that in line with the criminal justice system would grind

951
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 13: enforcement to a halt. So that's one that's totally a

952
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:28,360
Speaker 13: non starter with Republicans. Another one is to end the

953
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 13: DHS's the Trump DHS's policies on sensitive locations. The Trump

954
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 13: administration said ICE, you can go to places like pulling areas,

955
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 13: polling places, schools, churches. That way, illegal immigrants who know

956
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,839
Speaker 13: that the law enforcement is coming for them can't hide

957
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 13: out in those locations and know that they're untouchable. If

958
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:52,360
Speaker 13: you take away the ability for ICE to go to

959
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:56,680
Speaker 13: someone's house or their school, or their workplace or a

960
00:50:56,719 --> 00:51:00,799
Speaker 13: polling place, where is I supposed to arrest people? And

961
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:04,439
Speaker 13: on top of that, it ends what democrats call racial profiling,

962
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 13: which is going to places where legal immigrants tend to congregate,

963
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 13: such as outside home depots.

964
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 10: I wouldn't even be allowed to do that.

965
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 13: So if the Republicans were to concede to these Democratic demands,

966
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 13: it would effectively end immigration enforcement altogether.

967
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:20,280
Speaker 10: And that's why they're non starters.

968
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 1: Are there any demands that they made that Republicans appeared

969
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: to consider reasonable.

970
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 13: Republicans have shown a willingness to consider requiring body cameras

971
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 13: for agents, and the Trump DHS has already said this

972
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 13: is something they want to do. They're rolling it out

973
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:40,399
Speaker 13: in Minneapolis. They're willing to roll this out nationwide if

974
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:43,800
Speaker 13: the appropriations are there, to get cameras for everyone, because

975
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,360
Speaker 13: a lot of the agents say that the body camera

976
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 13: footage would end up validating their version of events. The

977
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:53,280
Speaker 13: agents themselves don't seem to be that opposed to getting

978
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 13: body cameras. In fact, Tom Homan, who's in charge of

979
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 13: the situation in Minneapolis now, said what he heard from

980
00:51:58,040 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 13: the rank and file.

981
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:00,760
Speaker 10: Was that they wanted to have cameras.

982
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 13: So that's one that the Republicans could concede to the

983
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 13: Democrats on Capitol Hill.

984
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:09,319
Speaker 1: Did the list include regularization of the Dreamers, the three

985
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 1: million people who came into the United States as a minor,

986
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:15,880
Speaker 1: not brought by their own free will, but who were

987
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 1: brought here.

988
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:16,960
Speaker 3: By other people.

989
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 13: That's certainly something Democrats want, but it wasn't part of

990
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 13: the appropriations package. That would be really difficult to do

991
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 13: through appropriations, But certainly amsty for full swaps of people

992
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 13: is something that Democrats would want to do policy wise,

993
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:32,720
Speaker 13: if they had control of government.

994
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 1: You know, I'm going to differ with you, Sarah. I

995
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 1: believe the appropriations process is amendable in regular order, provided

996
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 1: that you get over sixty votes in the Senate. So

997
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 1: if they really cared about the Dreamers and coupled it

998
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 1: with I wrote about this at Fox News today, coupled

999
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 1: it with a sanctuary city funding cut off for the Republicans,

1000
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: they could get the Dreamers regularized. They've been talking about

1001
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 1: it for twenty years. Why not ask for it?

1002
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 13: Well, it's a great question, and a lot of their

1003
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:04,720
Speaker 13: demands had to do with sort of defanging ICE and CBP.

1004
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:08,319
Speaker 13: Other things that the Democrats wanted is to prevent ICE

1005
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 13: agents from ever being able to wear masks, and not

1006
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 13: only that, but having to wear IDs visible on their

1007
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:17,839
Speaker 13: uniforms at all times with a serial number that these

1008
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 13: ICE observers would be able to take down badge numbers

1009
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 13: and make individualized reports. But you do have DHS saying

1010
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 13: that threats against these agents are up something like one

1011
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 13: thousand percent. I mean, they're getting an insane number of

1012
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 13: threats against these agents, and so that's why the administration

1013
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 13: argues they need to protect these people's identities.

1014
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 1: So this is basically a dead on arrival list of

1015
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 1: demands and no room to negotiate, nothing to talk about.

1016
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: That means DHS won't be funded. What does that? What's

1017
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 1: the schedule call for shutdown.

1018
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:56,239
Speaker 13: They have until February thirteenth, so next week to get

1019
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,839
Speaker 13: this done. The one thing Republicans have going for them

1020
00:53:58,920 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 13: is that DHS.

1021
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 10: It's not just Ice and CVP.

1022
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 13: You have FEMA in there, you have TSA in there,

1023
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:07,759
Speaker 13: things that Democrats know they can't let go without funding.

1024
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,840
Speaker 13: And the One Big Beautiful Bill Act already gave Ice

1025
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 13: millions billions of dollars through twenty twenty nine to conduct

1026
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 13: a surgeon deportation. So allowing another shutdown for DHS wouldn't

1027
00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:22,799
Speaker 13: defund the stuff that Democrats hate.

1028
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:23,839
Speaker 10: And because you do have.

1029
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 13: FEMA and TSA in there, Democrats will also feel pressure

1030
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:29,839
Speaker 13: to reach some kind of funding deal.

1031
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:33,840
Speaker 1: And last question, Serre Betfort, have they named their negotiating team?

1032
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 1: Do we know doing the actual cut and paste of

1033
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:40,319
Speaker 1: any deal on DHS appropriations.

1034
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 10: We have a leadership leadership at both parties.

1035
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 13: You have a keen Jeffries, you have Chuck Schumer Thune

1036
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 13: out there right now being.

1037
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:50,520
Speaker 10: The public face of negotiations.

1038
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 13: In terms of the rank and file, you know you've

1039
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:55,919
Speaker 13: had at least the appropriators be more willing to play

1040
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:56,719
Speaker 13: ball with each other.

1041
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 10: Susan Collins in the Senate for example, and others.

1042
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 13: So but right now, you know, because this is the

1043
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 13: ballgame for Democrats, you have leadership being the again the.

1044
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:08,400
Speaker 10: Public face of the negotiations.

1045
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:10,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I'm going to shift topic on you quickly

1046
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 1: because that's not going anywhere, and unless they sing a

1047
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:15,600
Speaker 1: new tune, there's going to be a shutdown and they're

1048
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 1: going to end up being embarrassed like they were last year.

1049
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 1: Is there any concern in the Congress about the looming

1050
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:24,120
Speaker 1: battle with the Iran that you've picked up?

1051
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 10: Republicans are? They are so far for the.

1052
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 13: Most part, backing Donald Trump and acknowledging you know, of

1053
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 13: course he has the authority to do any sort of

1054
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:37,919
Speaker 13: limited immediate strikes. But if you're talking about a sustained

1055
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 13: military action, you do have some Republicans saying, if it's

1056
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 13: going to be a sustained situation, whether boots on the

1057
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 13: ground or a bombardment or anything, then we're going to

1058
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 13: want Trump to.

1059
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:48,759
Speaker 10: Come talk to us.

1060
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 13: So Republicans are just sort of cautiously waiting to see

1061
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 13: what Trump is going to do.

1062
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 1: Sarah see Bedford from the Washington Demmer always going to

1063
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:58,800
Speaker 1: talk to you. Thank you, Sarah, follower at Exit Sarah C.

1064
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: Bedford dot not dot com. Sara see Bedford on x.

1065
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,360
Speaker 1: Philip Valboni is editor in chief and the founder of

1066
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 1: Global Post, which you can find at GlobalPost dot com.

1067
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 1: I don't want to make the Kanu that mistake GlobalPost

1068
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 1: dot com and the lead story today is about our

1069
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 1: neighbor to the south, Mexico. Hello, Philip, how are you?

1070
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:22,280
Speaker 14: I'm good, Hugh. I love the conversation about the discombobulator.

1071
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 14: It's a tough active folk it is.

1072
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 1: I don't want to get hit by one, but you know,

1073
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 1: we might have to use it in Mexico. After I

1074
00:56:28,239 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 1: read the lead story today, it does not appear that

1075
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:36,280
Speaker 1: President Schinbaum is doing enough that the Trump administration wants done.

1076
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:39,720
Speaker 1: Or is she? Did I read it the right way?

1077
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:46,720
Speaker 14: Well, the President has talked about possibly using special forces

1078
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:53,279
Speaker 14: to attack the drug cartels. Obviously President Shangong, president of Mexico,

1079
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 14: does not want that to happen. I mean what we

1080
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 14: wrote about today was, I mean for the horrific violence

1081
00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:07,200
Speaker 14: that the drug cartels have been visiting on the Mexican people.

1082
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 14: One hundred thousand killed over the last twenty years. Ten

1083
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 14: mayors in the last year alone. Of course, the drug

1084
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 14: cartels are wreaking havoc in America as well. We have

1085
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:29,280
Speaker 14: lost one hundred thousand drug overdose deaths a year. The

1086
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 14: peak was two thousand and twenty three. Last year was

1087
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 14: a little bit less. But it's a tremendous tragedy. And

1088
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 14: President hump doesn't think that the Mexican government is doing enough,

1089
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 14: and it's hard to argue that he isn't right about that.

1090
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 1: I did not I had missed until I read a

1091
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:50,520
Speaker 1: Global post today the Ryan Wedding story. Do you want

1092
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:53,000
Speaker 1: to tell people about that? Because I did not realize

1093
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 1: that a Canadian former Olympic snowboarder was involved with the

1094
00:57:57,080 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 1: Sineloa cartel.

1095
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 6: It appears that that is the case.

1096
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 14: And apparently an elite FBI team, although we're a little

1097
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 14: uncertainty about this, went into Mexico and extracted mister Wedding

1098
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:16,840
Speaker 14: and brought him back and obviously he is going.

1099
00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 6: To go on trial.

1100
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 14: But he had been involved with the Sineloa cartel allegedly

1101
00:58:22,480 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 14: for a long time, ten years or more, in you know,

1102
00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 14: funneling all these drugs up across the borders. Pretty amazing story.

1103
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:35,160
Speaker 14: I had not heard about it before. Until I read

1104
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 14: it in the newsletter this morning.

1105
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 1: Now I want to read the opening to this and

1106
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:40,720
Speaker 1: it's at GlobalPost dot com if you want to read it.

1107
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:42,400
Speaker 1: By the way, if you're a student or an educator,

1108
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 1: it's free for you to sign up for GlobalPost dot

1109
00:58:44,640 --> 00:58:47,760
Speaker 1: com if you just love foreign news, Philip, did you note,

1110
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,320
Speaker 1: by the way, Jay, the Washington Post basically closed their

1111
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 1: foreign gurel.

1112
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 14: I sure did, and I know you used to write

1113
00:58:55,040 --> 00:58:58,520
Speaker 14: for The Post, a once great newspaper. I mean, it's

1114
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 14: really a sign of what has been going on for

1115
00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:05,440
Speaker 14: twenty years that declined and coverage your foreign news.

1116
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 6: The Post is another example.

1117
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:13,840
Speaker 14: They eliminated seventy five percent of their foreign team. Pretty shocking.

1118
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:17,520
Speaker 14: And it's why we're here. That's why Global Posts was created.

1119
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 14: Why I started it is to help Americans know the

1120
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 14: world better.

1121
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it occurred to me when I was reading the

1122
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:26,320
Speaker 1: brief today that you're going to fill in and if

1123
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 1: people love knowing about the world, they should go to

1124
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:31,960
Speaker 1: GlobalPost dot com, especially if you're a teacher or a student.

1125
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:34,680
Speaker 1: It's free, but anyone who cares about the world, you

1126
00:59:34,720 --> 00:59:37,800
Speaker 1: can subscribe to it at GlobalPost dot com. The headline

1127
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:40,440
Speaker 1: is in the cross here. Mack Mexico walks a tightrope

1128
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 1: as US threats mount and Philip and his team are

1129
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 1: pretty good writers. Great lead, but a tragic one. You're

1130
00:59:47,280 --> 00:59:51,800
Speaker 1: up on Marror. Carlos Manzo was attending Day of Death

1131
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:54,959
Speaker 1: Day of the Dead celebrations in his city's historic center

1132
00:59:55,000 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 1: in November when a lone gunman shot him to death. Manzo, forty,

1133
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 1: became heir of the town in the western state of

1134
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 1: mccoaugh Khan in September twenty twenty four. Was an outspoken

1135
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 1: critic of the Cartels, pursuing a no leniency approach to

1136
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 1: finding them. Just a few months before his murder. The

1137
01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:15,040
Speaker 1: mayor said his efforts were inspired by his outrage over

1138
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 1: local suffering in the region taken over by these criminal groups.

1139
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 1: I don't want to be just another mayor on the

1140
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 1: list of those executed, Manzo said, But I don't want

1141
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:26,800
Speaker 1: the municipal police to continue becoming statistics or the honest

1142
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:29,920
Speaker 1: and honorable citizens who are victims of this social cancer amount.

1143
01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:33,280
Speaker 1: I don't know who runs for office in Mexico, Philip,

1144
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 1: do you.

1145
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:37,480
Speaker 14: I know? I mean, this has been going on for

1146
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 14: twenty years, Hugh, and so many you know, courageous people

1147
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:49,600
Speaker 14: have died, you know, trying to come back these cartels, and.

1148
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 6: They're still.

1149
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:55,160
Speaker 14: Very, very powerful, and they're still you know, spreading corruption

1150
01:00:55,440 --> 01:00:59,640
Speaker 14: among you know, the military and the politicians.

1151
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 6: Uh, I mean.

1152
01:01:03,000 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 14: Something, something needs to change, because this can't go on,

1153
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:09,560
Speaker 14: you know, any longer.

1154
01:01:09,600 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 1: Really, Now that the Post notes GlobalPost dot com, right

1155
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 1: analysts say she has gone further Claudia Scheinbaum, the President

1156
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:21,080
Speaker 1: of Mexico, than her predecessors in combating the cartels, but

1157
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:25,520
Speaker 1: warned that progress remains uneven, though the government's moved to

1158
01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 1: decrease the already miniscule security brought budget or its reluctant

1159
01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:32,040
Speaker 1: to target politicians, but link to the cartels are alarming.

1160
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:36,120
Speaker 1: What has she done?

1161
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:42,720
Speaker 14: She has apparently, through their you know, their law enforcement people,

1162
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 14: has reduced the flow of fetanyl across the border. I

1163
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 14: think that's one of the things that she has cited.

1164
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:52,240
Speaker 14: They have increased their cooperation with the DEA and other

1165
01:01:53,240 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 14: you know, law enforcement people in the United States. But

1166
01:01:57,920 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 14: these efforts have gone on know in her priors, prior administrations,

1167
01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 14: her predecessor and others.

1168
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:09,440
Speaker 6: Nothing seems to be able to break the power of

1169
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:10,600
Speaker 6: all that money.

1170
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,760
Speaker 14: The billions and billions of dollars that these cartels make

1171
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:19,800
Speaker 14: from selling drugs in the United States, and that money

1172
01:02:19,080 --> 01:02:24,200
Speaker 14: is paying off people, and it's extremely difficult to break.

1173
01:02:24,240 --> 01:02:27,600
Speaker 14: I mean, you have to break the cartels. And I

1174
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 14: think that's why, I mean it's tempting for the President

1175
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:34,400
Speaker 14: to want to use special forces. Most people think that

1176
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 14: would not work, that it would. It's not as simple

1177
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:42,920
Speaker 14: as going after one person, although you could get out

1178
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 14: some of the.

1179
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:44,800
Speaker 6: Leaders, but we've done that before.

1180
01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 14: But you really have to break an organization of thousands

1181
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 14: and thousands of people, many of them just foot soldiers.

1182
01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:58,800
Speaker 14: And plus you know, going into Mexico would produce a

1183
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:02,959
Speaker 14: big anti US reaction in our neighbor to the south,

1184
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:06,480
Speaker 14: which is a great trade partner, important trade partner. So

1185
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:12,640
Speaker 14: I don't know, it's been it's been persisting for a

1186
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 14: long time, and it doesn't look like we're making the

1187
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 14: progress that we deserve to.

1188
01:03:20,200 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 1: Well, it is difficult to imagine pulling out the cartels.

1189
01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:26,120
Speaker 1: By their roots, they're they're deeper and wider, I think,

1190
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 1: in fact, than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Court, which is

1191
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:31,120
Speaker 1: at one hundred and fifty thousand Phillip In the last

1192
01:03:31,120 --> 01:03:34,160
Speaker 1: minute that we have. Do you expect that the United

1193
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:36,280
Speaker 1: States is going to initiate a battle with Iran?

1194
01:03:39,280 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 6: I wouldn't be surprised.

1195
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:42,800
Speaker 14: I don't think the Iranians are going to give up

1196
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 14: the opportunity to make Nubleo weapons. I don't think they're

1197
01:03:47,520 --> 01:03:53,080
Speaker 14: going to give up power, and so I think it

1198
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:54,440
Speaker 14: may very well come to that.

1199
01:03:55,040 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 1: I think the next time we docked the Global Post

1200
01:03:57,080 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 1: ll app stories about what we did in Iran or

1201
01:04:00,440 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 1: the imminence of it. I'm given the president till Saint

1202
01:04:03,800 --> 01:04:07,160
Speaker 1: Patrick's day. Because of the back to back the Olympics

1203
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:12,320
Speaker 1: followed by Ramadan, there is a second carrier group going.

1204
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:15,240
Speaker 1: That's a lot of strength to marshal and then not use.

1205
01:04:15,680 --> 01:04:17,880
Speaker 1: Philip Elbonie always go to talk to you, editor in

1206
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 1: chief of Globalposts GlobalPost dot com. If you want to

1207
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:23,640
Speaker 1: learn more about it, Hi, it's you, Hewett. You've heard

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Speaker 1: me talk a lot about Consumer Selluler, how you can

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Speaker 1: switch your carrier and save money without sacrifice. That's because

1210
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Speaker 1: Consumer Cellular uses the same towers as the major carrier.

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Speaker 1: You'll save money every month on your bill without having

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Speaker 1: get two lines of unlimited talk, text and data for

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Speaker 1: sixty dollars a month. That's an addition to the second

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Speaker 1: month totally free using promo code Q and are you

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Speaker 1: tired of your wireless company telling you have to talk

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Speaker 1: to an AI robot, download an app, or Horizon pay

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Speaker 1: ten dollars to talk to someone when paying your bill? Yeah?

1220
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Speaker 1: No thanks. Consumer Sellular ranks number one for network coverage

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Speaker 1: and customer satisfaction. According to ACSI, whether you're switching online

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Speaker 1: or over the phone, you'll be working with an actual

1223
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Speaker 1: human being based right here in the US. So switch

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Speaker 1: and get your second month free plus two unlimited lines

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Speaker 1: of sixty dollars. If you're over fifty, go to Consumer

1226
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Speaker 1: siler dot com, slash hue, promo Hugh or call one

1227
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Speaker 1: hundred eight or call one eight hundred four one one

1228
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Speaker 1: forty four fifty four one eight hundred four one one

1229
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Speaker 1: forty four fifty four. That's one eight hundred four to one,

1230
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Speaker 1: one forty four to fifty four. Don't forget My code

1231
01:05:37,280 --> 01:05:41,520
Speaker 1: is Hugh, Joined by Jonathan Williams, President of the American

1232
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:46,680
Speaker 1: Legislative Exchange Council ALECALEC dot org slash u if you

1233
01:05:46,720 --> 01:05:49,520
Speaker 1: want to sign up for the Alex newsletter. Jonathan joins

1234
01:05:49,560 --> 01:05:51,960
Speaker 1: me a couple of times a month to talk about

1235
01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 1: what's going on in the stage. Jonathan, I'm going to

1236
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:57,280
Speaker 1: start at the with the Save Act because it's on

1237
01:05:57,400 --> 01:06:00,840
Speaker 1: everybody's mind. I got criticized yesterday John Thune about it

1238
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:03,160
Speaker 1: because I know what the leader said, which is he'll

1239
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:05,160
Speaker 1: vote for it when it comes up. What do you

1240
01:06:05,160 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 1: think about the say back. I don't think it's got

1241
01:06:07,120 --> 01:06:07,840
Speaker 1: sixty votes.

1242
01:06:09,600 --> 01:06:13,000
Speaker 15: Well, you know, regardless of the vote counting HU in Washington.

1243
01:06:13,080 --> 01:06:15,480
Speaker 16: I think it's got the broad backing of the American people,

1244
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:17,200
Speaker 16: which is the important thing. I mean a lot of

1245
01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:20,840
Speaker 16: times we're here talking about common sense ALEC policy ideas.

1246
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:23,000
Speaker 16: I mean, this has to be right up there with

1247
01:06:23,080 --> 01:06:26,440
Speaker 16: the ninety percent issue. To say that Americans say that

1248
01:06:26,520 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 16: citizens only should be the ones that are voting, and

1249
01:06:28,800 --> 01:06:31,520
Speaker 16: we need to have valid voter ID just as the

1250
01:06:31,520 --> 01:06:32,600
Speaker 16: states are working on.

1251
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:34,680
Speaker 15: This is a really important item.

1252
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,640
Speaker 16: Now, you know, if that's where, if that's the plank

1253
01:06:37,680 --> 01:06:40,840
Speaker 16: that some of the progressive Democrats in the Senate want

1254
01:06:40,880 --> 01:06:43,760
Speaker 16: to walk in an election year, that's I think that's

1255
01:06:43,840 --> 01:06:46,040
Speaker 16: up to them. But I mean, the American people are

1256
01:06:46,040 --> 01:06:48,640
Speaker 16: pretty strongly in favor of something as common sense as this.

1257
01:06:49,040 --> 01:06:51,760
Speaker 1: ALEC kids for a long time had the only Citizens

1258
01:06:51,880 --> 01:06:56,200
Speaker 1: Vote model policy. How many states have adopted that, Jonathan.

1259
01:06:57,480 --> 01:06:59,840
Speaker 15: Well, you know, we're in a number of states this year.

1260
01:06:59,840 --> 01:07:03,760
Speaker 16: We just adopted this is last year as a model policies.

1261
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,280
Speaker 16: We're in the infancy of it, but we're seeing tons

1262
01:07:06,320 --> 01:07:09,240
Speaker 16: of states introduce it. We've had our task Force director

1263
01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:11,680
Speaker 16: of our New Process of Procedures task Force out of

1264
01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:15,080
Speaker 16: testifying on the policy. Kansas has been a real leader

1265
01:07:15,080 --> 01:07:17,439
Speaker 16: in this area, and so be on the lookout because

1266
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:18,640
Speaker 16: I think you're going to see a lot of states

1267
01:07:18,640 --> 01:07:20,360
Speaker 16: get across the finish line this session.

1268
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:22,760
Speaker 1: I would actually prefer to be done at the state

1269
01:07:22,880 --> 01:07:25,919
Speaker 1: level because then there is no constitutional issue about whether

1270
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:28,920
Speaker 1: or not the Save Act works when it's mandated by

1271
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 1: Congress without a spending clause attached to it. So I

1272
01:07:31,840 --> 01:07:34,520
Speaker 1: hope states follow your lead on the Model Act. Let's

1273
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:37,000
Speaker 1: go to the census next, John, what is this new

1274
01:07:37,080 --> 01:07:40,800
Speaker 1: census data telling us about twenty thirty in the reapportionment.

1275
01:07:42,440 --> 01:07:44,400
Speaker 16: Well, when you look at the political side of it,

1276
01:07:44,760 --> 01:07:47,400
Speaker 16: really bad news for if you're in California, right, I mean,

1277
01:07:47,440 --> 01:07:50,480
Speaker 16: they're doubling down on just silly economic policies with his

1278
01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:53,640
Speaker 16: wealth tax and making things even worse. But if current

1279
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:58,600
Speaker 16: trends continue, California is going to lose potentially four or

1280
01:07:58,720 --> 01:08:02,440
Speaker 16: more US House to stricts in the reapportionment of twenty thirty.

1281
01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:04,320
Speaker 15: And keep it in mind, California has been a.

1282
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 16: State, as you know, since eighteen fifty. In every single

1283
01:08:07,320 --> 01:08:09,280
Speaker 16: decade they gained multiple.

1284
01:08:09,240 --> 01:08:10,720
Speaker 15: Seats in many of those decades.

1285
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:13,840
Speaker 16: They only lost their very first seat in state history

1286
01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:17,680
Speaker 16: in the last of reapportionment in twenty twenty. So for

1287
01:08:17,840 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 16: conservatives out there that don't want another Nancy Pelosi in Congress,

1288
01:08:21,160 --> 01:08:24,920
Speaker 16: that's probably very good news. But it's once again reiterating

1289
01:08:24,960 --> 01:08:27,880
Speaker 16: the point that we make every single year here in

1290
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 16: rich states, poor states, which is Americans continue to vote

1291
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:34,080
Speaker 16: with their feet away from states Lake California with the

1292
01:08:34,120 --> 01:08:36,080
Speaker 16: high taxes and big government policies.

1293
01:08:36,479 --> 01:08:40,040
Speaker 1: I'm afraid they're going to start leaving Virginia. John, I'm

1294
01:08:40,040 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 1: a Virginian year of Virginia. Even though I'm in California

1295
01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 1: for a few weeks and I teach here every other year,

1296
01:08:45,040 --> 01:08:48,240
Speaker 1: I'm a Virginian and I know that Spanberger was not

1297
01:08:48,360 --> 01:08:51,080
Speaker 1: my choice. But Governor Spanburger ran as a moderate. Is

1298
01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:52,439
Speaker 1: she governing as a moderate?

1299
01:08:54,160 --> 01:08:57,719
Speaker 16: Well, the legislature still certainly not governing as a moderate

1300
01:08:57,760 --> 01:09:00,400
Speaker 16: with all the different bills being introduced on it's the

1301
01:09:00,439 --> 01:09:04,360
Speaker 16: tax increases, bringing back a death tax, as we've talked about,

1302
01:09:04,520 --> 01:09:07,519
Speaker 16: the regional greenhouse gas initiative, you know, and those things

1303
01:09:07,520 --> 01:09:10,200
Speaker 16: are not making it tour desk in many cases yet,

1304
01:09:10,360 --> 01:09:12,840
Speaker 16: so the jury is still out, you know.

1305
01:09:12,880 --> 01:09:15,160
Speaker 15: We'll see what she does with some of these. I

1306
01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:16,160
Speaker 15: mean during the campaign.

1307
01:09:16,200 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 16: For instance, a massive issue for job creation in Virginia

1308
01:09:19,600 --> 01:09:21,960
Speaker 16: is the right to work status right or you're going

1309
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:23,720
Speaker 16: to have a forced union workforce.

1310
01:09:24,000 --> 01:09:26,280
Speaker 15: This is something that she said she would not sign

1311
01:09:26,360 --> 01:09:30,360
Speaker 15: during the campaign. We'll see if she actually follows that.

1312
01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:32,680
Speaker 16: And as you know, you governor's got a lot of

1313
01:09:32,720 --> 01:09:36,040
Speaker 16: times let laws become law without their signature.

1314
01:09:36,160 --> 01:09:37,840
Speaker 15: So there's a way to wheeze a lot of that,

1315
01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:38,519
Speaker 15: I suppose.

1316
01:09:39,120 --> 01:09:41,439
Speaker 16: But it's a good point that she did campaign as

1317
01:09:41,439 --> 01:09:45,639
Speaker 16: a moderate against wins seers, and based on what's happening

1318
01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:48,720
Speaker 16: with her party there in the Virginia General Assembly, she's

1319
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:49,800
Speaker 16: going to be put to that test.

1320
01:09:49,800 --> 01:09:52,960
Speaker 1: Offully soon, Jonathan, do you think that they are more

1321
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:57,200
Speaker 1: likely to make big mistakes in Virginia because they feel

1322
01:09:57,280 --> 01:10:00,040
Speaker 1: that it's not as mobile a population as California. The

1323
01:10:00,160 --> 01:10:03,599
Speaker 1: California's population was very mobile, and the people who made

1324
01:10:03,640 --> 01:10:06,200
Speaker 1: incomes left and now the billionaires are leaving and the

1325
01:10:06,760 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: capital is mobile. But if you're working for the federal

1326
01:10:09,240 --> 01:10:11,840
Speaker 1: government and you're in the northern suburbs of Virginia, you

1327
01:10:11,960 --> 01:10:14,840
Speaker 1: got to stay there. They are they indifferent to those people?

1328
01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:18,720
Speaker 15: Well, there is that argument to say, where are you

1329
01:10:18,760 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 15: going to go? Maryland or DC?

1330
01:10:20,400 --> 01:10:23,600
Speaker 16: And we can be arguably worse, Although some of the

1331
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:25,800
Speaker 16: proposals you see out of Richmond right now would make

1332
01:10:25,880 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 16: Virginia the high tax state in the region. So you

1333
01:10:28,120 --> 01:10:30,320
Speaker 16: could see a reversal of the folks that have left

1334
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:33,320
Speaker 16: Maryland and DC over the years to escape to the

1335
01:10:33,320 --> 01:10:35,479
Speaker 16: freedom loving side of the Potomac, as we used to

1336
01:10:35,479 --> 01:10:36,439
Speaker 16: call it in Virginia.

1337
01:10:37,080 --> 01:10:38,280
Speaker 15: You could see a reversal of that.

1338
01:10:38,360 --> 01:10:41,120
Speaker 16: But keep in mind, I was just with Governor Patrick

1339
01:10:41,160 --> 01:10:44,840
Speaker 16: Morsey this week in Charleston, West Virginia, and you had

1340
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:48,720
Speaker 16: Virginia losing population, Glenn Young and trying to address that.

1341
01:10:49,040 --> 01:10:52,759
Speaker 16: West Virginia had lost population uninterrupted for one hundred years,

1342
01:10:53,120 --> 01:10:56,040
Speaker 16: and this most recent batch of census data showed that

1343
01:10:56,160 --> 01:10:59,840
Speaker 16: West Virginia actually gained six thousand residents on net from

1344
01:10:59,840 --> 01:11:02,840
Speaker 16: the other states. And so Harper's Ferry just west of

1345
01:11:02,880 --> 01:11:06,440
Speaker 16: the metro DC area here in Jefferson County, West Virginia.

1346
01:11:07,160 --> 01:11:08,680
Speaker 16: I think it's a great bet if you're a real

1347
01:11:08,760 --> 01:11:11,559
Speaker 16: estate investor in Jefferson County right now, because I think

1348
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:14,559
Speaker 16: that's going to become the low cost, limited government area

1349
01:11:14,600 --> 01:11:16,840
Speaker 16: for people that still want to commute to the DC metro.

1350
01:11:17,080 --> 01:11:20,280
Speaker 1: Well, you anticipated me. I say West Virginia for last

1351
01:11:20,280 --> 01:11:22,639
Speaker 1: because I knew you were there in the last week.

1352
01:11:22,800 --> 01:11:24,960
Speaker 1: And I think you're going to see not a few

1353
01:11:25,000 --> 01:11:28,960
Speaker 1: people head for Harper's Ferry and beyond. It's not a

1354
01:11:28,960 --> 01:11:34,400
Speaker 1: bad commute. My general manager of the Salem station in

1355
01:11:34,439 --> 01:11:37,679
Speaker 1: the Beltway lives there and drives in every morning. It's

1356
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:42,280
Speaker 1: not terrible commuteses like California commute. Actually, So what's going

1357
01:11:42,320 --> 01:11:45,479
Speaker 1: on in West Virginia that's attracting everyone besides the taxes?

1358
01:11:47,120 --> 01:11:47,800
Speaker 15: Well, you know, and.

1359
01:11:47,720 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 16: Governor Morrisey wants to continue to cut taxes this session too,

1360
01:11:50,800 --> 01:11:54,400
Speaker 16: to make that differential with Virginia even bigger. The other

1361
01:11:54,439 --> 01:11:57,519
Speaker 16: big thing is that this coming school year, the Hope

1362
01:11:57,560 --> 01:12:00,960
Speaker 16: Scholarship Plan that you've talked to our great board member,

1363
01:12:01,000 --> 01:12:04,040
Speaker 16: a Senator Patricia Rutger, who's really the heroin of national

1364
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 16: school choice movement. As the first universal school choice state

1365
01:12:07,640 --> 01:12:10,600
Speaker 16: with that Hope scot Ship that becomes truly universal and

1366
01:12:10,640 --> 01:12:14,040
Speaker 16: available to all families this coming school year. Now there's

1367
01:12:14,080 --> 01:12:17,200
Speaker 16: some efforts from some big government folks in West Virginia

1368
01:12:17,240 --> 01:12:19,600
Speaker 16: that would like to impede its progress and try to

1369
01:12:19,600 --> 01:12:23,000
Speaker 16: weaken it during this legislative session, but thankfully people like

1370
01:12:23,040 --> 01:12:26,280
Speaker 16: Senator Rutger and Governor Morrisey are standing strong. So you

1371
01:12:26,280 --> 01:12:30,160
Speaker 16: have that combination of school choice which benefits obviously families

1372
01:12:30,160 --> 01:12:34,120
Speaker 16: and kids, and you have the lower taxes, limited government regulations,

1373
01:12:34,640 --> 01:12:38,760
Speaker 16: and it becomes a really unescapable value creation to live

1374
01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:40,880
Speaker 16: on the West Virginia side of the line versus the

1375
01:12:40,960 --> 01:12:43,200
Speaker 16: Virginia side of the line. You know, you got access

1376
01:12:43,240 --> 01:12:45,960
Speaker 16: to Dallas Airport, and especially for those commuters as we

1377
01:12:46,000 --> 01:12:48,439
Speaker 16: are talking about you that maybe only need to come

1378
01:12:48,439 --> 01:12:50,519
Speaker 16: to d C two or three days a week, it

1379
01:12:50,600 --> 01:12:53,360
Speaker 16: becomes a whole lot more manageable. So you know, I'm

1380
01:12:53,360 --> 01:12:55,639
Speaker 16: a big fan of what's going on in West Virginia,

1381
01:12:55,720 --> 01:12:57,880
Speaker 16: and I think the folks in Richmond how to pay

1382
01:12:57,920 --> 01:13:00,400
Speaker 16: awfully close attention to that question.

1383
01:13:00,479 --> 01:13:02,599
Speaker 1: Jonathan. By the way, Senator Rucker is one of our

1384
01:13:02,640 --> 01:13:05,280
Speaker 1: favorite guests that the annual ALEC get together. She and

1385
01:13:05,360 --> 01:13:07,680
Speaker 1: Danny Perez are one two punch the speaker of the

1386
01:13:07,720 --> 01:13:11,720
Speaker 1: Florida House. But how many people are using the Hope Scholarship?

1387
01:13:11,760 --> 01:13:13,439
Speaker 1: Do you have an actual head count yet of how

1388
01:13:13,439 --> 01:13:16,160
Speaker 1: many people have raised their hand in West Virginia and

1389
01:13:16,200 --> 01:13:16,960
Speaker 1: said I want that.

1390
01:13:18,760 --> 01:13:20,519
Speaker 15: You know, it's a really impressive number.

1391
01:13:20,520 --> 01:13:23,679
Speaker 16: I think they've cleared to ten thousand student hurdle here,

1392
01:13:23,880 --> 01:13:26,960
Speaker 16: which is really important as they continue to build progress

1393
01:13:26,960 --> 01:13:29,640
Speaker 16: and it becomes truly universal in this coming school year,

1394
01:13:29,680 --> 01:13:31,840
Speaker 16: I think you're going to see those numbers added toe

1395
01:13:31,840 --> 01:13:34,000
Speaker 16: and you add that to the great new numbers just

1396
01:13:34,040 --> 01:13:36,160
Speaker 16: out of Texas this week yesterday that you might have

1397
01:13:36,240 --> 01:13:38,719
Speaker 16: seen reported where they've already had a couple of tens

1398
01:13:38,760 --> 01:13:43,320
Speaker 16: of dozens of individuals now joining that new education freedom

1399
01:13:43,920 --> 01:13:45,240
Speaker 16: plan that they just opened up.

1400
01:13:45,560 --> 01:13:47,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I did not know that, but it's the greatest

1401
01:13:47,560 --> 01:13:50,080
Speaker 1: thing going on in the country's education freedom and in

1402
01:13:50,080 --> 01:13:52,960
Speaker 1: fact The incentive that Ted Cruz put into the Big

1403
01:13:53,000 --> 01:13:55,880
Speaker 1: Beautiful Bill is working all across the United States. I'm

1404
01:13:55,880 --> 01:13:58,880
Speaker 1: sure ALEC is helping it do that. Go to ALC

1405
01:13:59,160 --> 01:14:01,400
Speaker 1: dot org. Shoot if you want to hear from Jonathan

1406
01:14:01,479 --> 01:14:04,240
Speaker 1: and his colleagues over at the American Legislative Exchange Council

1407
01:14:04,240 --> 01:14:05,920
Speaker 1: about what's going on in the state and the states

1408
01:14:05,920 --> 01:14:08,000
Speaker 1: are great sponsor. Love talking to Jonathan