Speaker 1: Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things
Speaker 1: Hillsdale at Hillsdale dot ed or I encourage you to
Speaker 1: take advantage of the many free online courses there, and
Speaker 1: of course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of
Speaker 1: them at hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google,
Speaker 1: Apple iTunes and Hillsdale Graace America. Good Wednesday to you
Speaker 1: on Hewent Inside the Beltway on the Salem New Channel,
Speaker 1: Salem Radio Network. All of our great radio affiliates, welcome aboard.
Speaker 1: We've talked to bottom with guests today, most talking about Iran,
Speaker 1: but I'm starting off with Mary Katherine Ham, co host
Speaker 1: of Getting Hammered, and there was a super duper normal
Speaker 1: getting Hermreed today with Kelly Mayer as our guest host
Speaker 1: as opposed to Vic Mattis. I found it very amusing,
Speaker 1: Mary Katherine. I don't know Kelly, what's the deal on? Kelly.
Speaker 2: Kelly is a political operative out in Colorado, So she
Speaker 2: works in the Big Square States, formerly on getting Republicans elected,
Speaker 2: but the party out there doing so great these days,
Speaker 2: and that's one of the things that she comments on
Speaker 2: and observes and tries to correct to the best of
Speaker 2: her ability by getting normal people into the party, because
Speaker 2: once the party goes into a spiral in a state,
Speaker 2: it is hard to get back.
Speaker 3: So that's what's going on out there.
Speaker 1: But is she super duper not normal like your kids
Speaker 1: thought of you. She's played super duper not normal.
Speaker 2: She's I mean, we all have our ways. All my galfriends,
Speaker 2: I would say, are a little too into politics to
Speaker 2: be actually normal, but they But she is a normy
Speaker 2: mom out there.
Speaker 1: Not normal to get a wake off and say, I know,
Speaker 1: I'm going to go to auctioneer school. And I've never
Speaker 1: heard of auctioneer school.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: When I would get a week off, I would go
Speaker 1: to like Saint John's College and read great books with
Speaker 1: a bunch of venture capitalists, that sort of. But the
Speaker 1: auctioneer school in Iowa in a blizzard, that's just not normal.
Speaker 2: Hey, you know what, We're just opening up new areas
Speaker 2: of capitalism to understand and it's very powerful.
Speaker 1: I have one more question before we get to the
Speaker 1: serious stuff. You have a star spangled banner renission. You
Speaker 1: can sing the star spangled banner.
Speaker 2: I mean, I wouldn't say it's a treat, but I
Speaker 2: can hit the notes.
Speaker 3: I can carry a tune.
Speaker 1: Yes, okay, I my request wild I.
Speaker 2: Mostly wielded as a weapon because if there's a rowdy crowd,
Speaker 2: I just start the anthem and then they hush, and
Speaker 2: then I say, ah, look you here's the real singer.
Speaker 1: I have a request, which is, when Vick is in
Speaker 1: the house, that you get whatever kind of boombox you
Speaker 1: need and you warm up the pipes and you let
Speaker 1: us hear it, because you never know when you're going
Speaker 1: to use it. We were in the middle of Yosemite,
Speaker 1: somewhere way off in the middle of nowhere. Actually it
Speaker 1: was in the Canadian Rockies, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: the fetching missus Schwett thought, you know, there might be
Speaker 1: bears around here, and she broke into the Star Spangled Bears.
Speaker 2: The bears, look, you don't want to you don't want
Speaker 2: to surprise them, and they're very patriotic, so very patriotic.
Speaker 2: It all works out when you use that as a tool.
Speaker 1: All right, Let me come around to patriotism. Your assessment
Speaker 1: of our war with Iran.
Speaker 2: Look, to me, the media seems to be almost not
Speaker 2: at all focusing on what looked like tactical and operational
Speaker 2: pretty tremendous victories along with alliances and open support from
Speaker 2: Arab states that you would not have suspected Gulf states
Speaker 2: that you would not have predicted several years ago. And
Speaker 2: so I don't want to miss that part of the
Speaker 2: story for the fact that everyone is reporting only on
Speaker 2: there are risks here.
Speaker 5: Of course, there are risks here.
Speaker 2: There are risks in any military action, but it seems
Speaker 2: to me that there's a lot of overlooking of the
Speaker 2: actual victories happening.
Speaker 1: Now we're Americans. We don't like to hurt people, we
Speaker 1: really don't. But the way to win a war is
Speaker 1: to blow up the bridges and the roads, destroy the
Speaker 1: power plants, and decimate the refinery so they can't make
Speaker 1: any money afterwards. And I'll bet the people of Iran,
Speaker 1: the families of the thirty thousand plus people were murdered,
Speaker 1: would not mind if we told them what we were
Speaker 1: going to do and they could stay away from it.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, I think that the people of Iran have
Speaker 2: shown to the best that they can.
Speaker 3: Obviously they're sort.
Speaker 2: Of cut off from things that they are supportive of
Speaker 2: much of this and the clips that we have seen,
Speaker 2: but I'm not sure.
Speaker 3: Exactly what that looks like moving forward.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm afraid we won't take a kill shot because
Speaker 1: the President doesn't want to blow up the infrastructure that
Speaker 1: allows Iran to rebuild. We do dominate that you wouldn't
Speaker 1: know it from the media, but we have complete air supremacy.
Speaker 1: We can hit anything we want to hit any time
Speaker 1: we want. We can hit it three times between the
Speaker 1: Israeli Asia and we've hit sixteen thousand targets. But the iergy,
Speaker 1: she keeps bringing people out of retirement and they're old killers,
Speaker 1: they're ruthless sobs, they're not going to be reformers.
Speaker 2: Well yeah, and I think it's an open question what
Speaker 2: the American public will tolerate when it comes to length
Speaker 2: of a military action or how much you can employ
Speaker 2: a kill shot, because that, you know, our sort of
Speaker 2: military supremacy in the actual operational part is not really
Speaker 2: in question at this point, certainly coupled with Israeli intel,
Speaker 2: which is amazing, and those two working together. But I
Speaker 2: do think there's a question about how much the public
Speaker 2: is willing to stomach, and sometimes that threshold can be
Speaker 2: quite low. So I think, and of course Trump is
Speaker 2: attuned to that.
Speaker 3: To some degree.
Speaker 1: Now, what did you pay for gas last, Mary Catherine?
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I could tell you, but I'm in
Speaker 2: northern Virginia, so it's expensive.
Speaker 1: Okay. My son is visiting California paid six and a
Speaker 1: half dollars a gas with a gallon of gas on
Speaker 1: his way to Disneyland today, and that's not unusual. We've
Speaker 1: been there before in California under Joe Biden, but it's
Speaker 1: not what we've been used to for a while. I
Speaker 1: don't think the American people will break and run on
Speaker 1: Trump if he brings the regime down. This is a
Speaker 1: world historical moment. It's a pivot moment. This regime has
Speaker 1: been nothing but evil for my adult life. Do you
Speaker 1: think we've got three months of hardship in US?
Speaker 2: I think some people are interested in the world shifting moment.
Speaker 3: That this is.
Speaker 2: I think he needs to make a case for it regularly.
Speaker 2: I think an Oval Office address on this and why
Speaker 2: it's important would be helpful. Because people are concerned about
Speaker 2: the gas prices. They are as concerned about their home
Speaker 2: lives and how things look there for what they can afford.
Speaker 2: And if it looks like he is too distracted by
Speaker 2: this and not making that case. It does run a
Speaker 2: risk of alienating people before the midterms.
Speaker 1: Now I've got audition, I feel that's worth it. I've
Speaker 1: got August Flueger coming up. He runs a Republican Study Committee,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to make my plea to him. Please
Speaker 1: do a reconciliation. Please put your arm around the Pentagon
Speaker 1: supplemental double it fask for two hundred billion, given four
Speaker 1: hundred billion, Tell them to spend it on Golden Dome
Speaker 1: Fund DHS through the end of the term so that
Speaker 1: we don't go through this ridiculous stuff at the airports anymore.
Speaker 1: And hang any other Christmas tree ornament. But do it
Speaker 1: in two weeks. It's not really complicated, Mary Catherine. You
Speaker 1: can do it with fifty one votes in the Senate,
Speaker 1: and you can do it with a majority. You can
Speaker 1: lose Massey who won't vote for it. But what do
Speaker 1: you think should they at least try?
Speaker 2: Look, I do think it's probably important in the near
Speaker 2: term to do something domestically, to say that you're doing
Speaker 2: something and say, look, these are our priorities. We're making
Speaker 2: sure that these people can't mess with you in the
Speaker 2: future by pulling funding. By doing these shutdown stunts. I
Speaker 2: think they could have been better over the last bit
Speaker 2: about messaging that this is wholly a project of the
Speaker 2: Democrats that are proactively attempting to do this. The media
Speaker 2: is not going to back you up on that. You've
Speaker 2: got to make that clear yourself from the beginning so
Speaker 2: that people standing in these TSA len lines know why.
Speaker 2: But yeah, profering an actual solution to that through legislation
Speaker 2: would probably be a good pitch for people.
Speaker 1: Okay, last question about Northern Virginia. They shut the schools
Speaker 1: down in anticipation of thunderstorms that did not come. Now, yes,
Speaker 1: in Warren, Ohio, thunderstorms meant Tuesday. What is wrong with this.
Speaker 2: State many things, But what's wrong with a lot of
Speaker 2: blue localities, particularly when the politicians are aligned with teachers' unions,
Speaker 2: is that they practiced closing schools for several years. They
Speaker 2: got really good at it. And the places that practiced
Speaker 2: closing schools continue to.
Speaker 3: Do it at the drop of a hat. And places
Speaker 3: that practice being open.
Speaker 2: Are better for students and will do it even through adversity. Pittsburgh,
Speaker 2: by the way, closing for the NFL Draft for three
Speaker 2: days while that happens I mean, that's Detroit didn't do that,
Speaker 2: and they had seven one hundred and seventy five thousand
Speaker 2: people in town for the draft. But this is what
Speaker 2: leadership and education does now in blue areas.
Speaker 1: Wow, I didn't know that. I'm going to get Selena
Speaker 1: Zito on the case. Mary Catherine, I'm always good to
Speaker 1: see you. Follow her at MK hammer, Listen to her
Speaker 1: at Getting Hammered Along the podcast Very Funny podcast Today,
Speaker 1: Welcome Back in America. I'm Hugh Hewittt and no C. Rothman,
Speaker 1: senior writer for a National Review. Iran Warhawk. I'm just
Speaker 1: going to now use that as your lower third, Noah,
Speaker 1: because you're like me, you're an Iran warhawk. Do you
Speaker 1: think Donald Trump has it in him to finish the job?
Speaker 6: I sure hope he does. I mean that is the
Speaker 6: biggest question mark, isn't it. I kind of think that
Speaker 6: we've been seeing over the course of this week could
Speaker 6: be any number of things. It could be everybody has
Speaker 6: been said, well, maybe he's just trying to manipulate a
Speaker 6: wheel markets, or maybe he's just trying to look for
Speaker 6: a diplomatic off ramp, or perhaps he's sowing dissension within
Speaker 6: the ranks in the IRGC and the clearsy. Everybody thinks
Speaker 6: that their brothers and arms are going to sell them
Speaker 6: out right.
Speaker 3: Could be all of those things. It could be none
Speaker 3: of those things. We don't know.
Speaker 6: But what we're seeing in the press seems to be
Speaker 6: an exploration of every possible downside of this war except
Speaker 6: the prospect of stopping too soon. That's the most dangerous
Speaker 6: of all the outcomes that are presented before us right now.
Speaker 6: And it seems to me that the press exploring all
Speaker 6: these outcomes leaves that one unexplored because it's the one
Speaker 6: they want.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're right now. I want to make
Speaker 1: it clear because I'll say this, if the war ends
Speaker 1: during this broadcast, we are much better off today than
Speaker 1: we were twenty five days ago because the face of
Speaker 1: the regime is revealed. Most of the regime has been shattered,
Speaker 1: and their military war making ability has been set back decade.
Speaker 1: But they would more than that, if they had one.
Speaker 3: More than that.
Speaker 6: You Yeah, I mean, I have a twenty seven hundred
Speaker 6: word piece on this on the website if you're interested
Speaker 6: in my thoughts in all.
Speaker 3: Of their luggery.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and the extent to which I can't contain them
Speaker 6: beyond the fact that we have defanged, for the most part,
Speaker 6: RAN's capacity to project power across its borders. We have
Speaker 6: also re ordered the geopolitical landscape in ways that are
Speaker 6: very beneficial to US. China and Russia have been exposed
Speaker 6: as fairweather friends. The strategic pac that they signed with
Speaker 6: Iran as recently as in January isn't worth the ink
Speaker 6: that was spilled on it. Their radars and anti air
Speaker 6: systems have been exposed as insufficient to meet the threat
Speaker 6: posed by Western airpower, and the Gulf States seem rather
Speaker 6: completely arrayed against Iran, recognizing that Iran is the threat
Speaker 6: in their neighborhood, not Israel, not the United States, and
Speaker 6: the United States is the only power on Earth that
Speaker 6: has both the will and the capability to see to
Speaker 6: their defenses.
Speaker 1: They're going to be gradually there in eric in orbit
Speaker 1: as a result. Ambassador Yusef Alo Taiba, who is really
Speaker 1: one of the more influential and important ambassadors in Washington,
Speaker 1: DC's been here for a long time. Ambassador from the
Speaker 1: United Arab Emirates to the United States, has a peached
Speaker 1: in the Journal the UAE stands up to Iran. This
Speaker 1: war requires a conclusive outcome, one that addresses Tehran's full
Speaker 1: range of threats. I think that's an appeal for the
Speaker 1: kill shot, and by that I mean blow up the highway,
Speaker 1: blow up the bridges, blow up the power plants, blow
Speaker 1: up the oil refineries, reduce the country to penury that
Speaker 1: people will take it from there. Do you agree with me?
Speaker 6: Well, I don't know. The President doesn't share that outlook.
Speaker 6: As you said in the last segment, he wants to
Speaker 6: leave as much infrastructure in place for a successor regime
Speaker 6: to utilize and so the Iranian people can get a
Speaker 6: post Islamic republica ran off its feet as soon as possible.
Speaker 6: I'm not going to second guess that scenario. It's too
Speaker 6: soon to think about post war scenarios in the midst
Speaker 6: of the conflict. But people accuse me of being pollyannish
Speaker 6: about this war merely because I don't emphasize the negatives
Speaker 6: or the theoretical negatives honestly possible downsides of which there
Speaker 6: are many and I'm willing to recognize and explore. But
Speaker 6: what they don't explore is the degree to which the
Speaker 6: tactics which are begetting the strategic of benefits that we're.
Speaker 3: Going that we're enjoying now and will.
Speaker 6: Enjoy as a result of this war are immensely successful.
Speaker 6: People brush them off as saying a da YadA, YadA, YadA.
Speaker 6: We never win the post war. But you get to
Speaker 6: the post war by the tactics. If you don't focus
Speaker 6: on the beat by beat and you talk about the
Speaker 6: day after, the audience has no idea honestly what you're
Speaker 6: talking about, and it's prime for pessimism. And that seems
Speaker 6: to me to be honestly sort of the ticket into
Speaker 6: sophisticated circles. Now, if you're not really hopeless in dower
Speaker 6: and melancholy about this war.
Speaker 5: Well you're just not a serious person, or you're.
Speaker 1: Not crazy yourself knowing it's weird. I agree, but I
Speaker 1: am not. I think we are crushing them. I think
Speaker 1: the American.
Speaker 6: Worlitaria, it's at a granular level.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the only thing that has bothered me happened yesterday.
Speaker 1: The IRGC is not bringing people out of the freezer.
Speaker 1: They're bringing out the sixty eighth to seventy year old
Speaker 1: generals who fought way back eighty to eighty eight against Saddam.
Speaker 1: They're hardened killers. They've got money in the bank and
Speaker 1: their four oh one k's are at risk, and they're
Speaker 1: gonna kill everyone they need to kill on the street.
Speaker 1: So they're not going to a regime of moderates. They're
Speaker 1: bringing the old hardliners out of retirement to replace the
Speaker 1: ones we've killed. That tells me that we're gonna we're
Speaker 1: gonna be in the war for a one I don't
Speaker 1: know is that I got you go ahead?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 1: Can you can you talk?
Speaker 7: You?
Speaker 3: Can you hear me?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 5: So yeah, sorry about.
Speaker 1: That, That's okay. My point was yesterday they brought the
Speaker 1: old guard out of retirement, the IRGC guys who were
Speaker 1: killers for here. That's a bad sign. They're not going
Speaker 1: to make peace with Donald Trump. Do you agree?
Speaker 3: No, they're not going to make peace.
Speaker 6: Just about the entire idiot the regime, the IRGC and
Speaker 6: the Claresy, which are one and the same, are highly ideological,
Speaker 6: highly committed to the revolutionary creed inside Iran, and the
Speaker 6: old timers are going to be even more inclined towards
Speaker 6: that that outlook. But the post war environment that we
Speaker 6: want to create is one of internal fragmentation within the regime.
Speaker 6: Expose elite disagreement over how the best course of internal
Speaker 6: survival is individual survival. Those disagreements will have to materialize
Speaker 6: after the war, and they involve the disintegration of patronage networks,
Speaker 6: institutions that break down the isolation that I Ran experiences
Speaker 6: on the world stage beginning to bite is well, including
Speaker 6: not just the Western world, but the anti American axis Russia, Beijing, Moscow, Beijing,
Speaker 6: North Korea, et cetera. And those old timers are going
Speaker 6: to be the people who expose those internal divisions.
Speaker 3: They can't be in hiding.
Speaker 6: They have to be visible, because those are the people
Speaker 6: who have to break at some point, either with the
Speaker 6: regime or with the people, and they have to compel
Speaker 6: a confrontation at some point with the internal mechanisms of
Speaker 6: this regime versus the conflict with the people in the streets.
Speaker 6: And we can anticipate that another conflict with the Iranian
Speaker 6: people will material as it has pretty regularly over the
Speaker 6: course of this century two thousand and one, twenty nine,
Speaker 6: twenty seventeen, twenty nineteen, twenty twenty two, and twenty twenty five.
Speaker 6: We're going to see another one soon, and we need
Speaker 6: to see the Iranian regime exposed so that it can
Speaker 6: it's its internal divisions can be visible by the publican
Speaker 6: by the wider world. So I'm not entirely horrified by
Speaker 6: the prospect. In the near term, it will be horrible
Speaker 6: for the American people, difficult for us.
Speaker 1: But in the last questions, who besides Noah Rothman and
Speaker 1: Hugh Hewittt are Iran warhawks?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, it really does depend on who you ask.
Speaker 6: And I think the American people would be supportive of
Speaker 6: this project. As Mary Catherine said in the last segment,
Speaker 6: the President needs to enlist the American people in this
Speaker 6: national project. Sacrifices will be asked of them. They already
Speaker 6: are and the President needs to be forthright about that.
Speaker 6: But within the Republican Party, the majority of them are
Speaker 6: supportive of this war, apprehensive about its outcomes, anxious about
Speaker 6: its conduct, but supportive of the war aims and its
Speaker 6: conducts so far. And that's a that's a bedrock that
Speaker 6: the President can build on. He should get to work
Speaker 6: on it because that apprehension is only growing and the
Speaker 6: American public want to know that their investment in this
Speaker 6: project is going to yield returns.
Speaker 1: Not only yield return but that it's a world historical
Speaker 1: moment of the likes of which we have not seen
Speaker 1: since nineteen eighty nine. Rare when you realize that you're
Speaker 1: in the middle of a pivot. Everybody should know this
Speaker 1: is that right now, it's like nineteen eighty nine, and
Speaker 1: we have to topple this regime. We just have to
Speaker 1: no see Rothman, thank you. I'll be right back in America.
Speaker 1: Stay tuned. Morgan back in America. You do it here on
Speaker 1: the Salem New Channel, joined by Sarah C. Bedford to
Speaker 1: The Washington Examiner follow on exit. Sarah C. Bedford, Sarah,
Speaker 1: do the Democrats know that they are losing the country
Speaker 1: over the TSA and Brouglio.
Speaker 3: No, Actually, it seems like they don't at all.
Speaker 8: In fact, it seems like they're taking the opposite lesson
Speaker 8: from this. Republicans have accused them, i think quite credibly,
Speaker 8: of moving the goalposts on what a DHS funding deal
Speaker 8: could look like. They don't seem to be acting in
Speaker 8: the situation is that they believe they're going to shoulder
Speaker 8: any political blame for the long lines we're seeing at
Speaker 8: airports and the other knock on effects of the dj shutdown.
Speaker 1: If that's the case. Why is there an effort to
Speaker 1: basically do a seizure on the way to the forum
Speaker 1: to Chuck Schumer because Chris Murphy and the other people
Speaker 1: have lean and hungry looks in their eyes.
Speaker 8: Well, it's a problem for Schumer because every time that
Speaker 8: he has ultimately accepted some sort of deal that leads
Speaker 8: to the reopening of government. Now, this is a partial
Speaker 8: government shutdown, but twice now we've seen Schumer do that.
Speaker 8: With full government shutdowns, He's faced an enormous amount of
Speaker 8: backlash from the Democratic base. There's already talk of challenges
Speaker 8: to his leadership should Democrats expand their minority or even
Speaker 8: an in a less likely scenario, take control of the Senate.
Speaker 3: There's talk that.
Speaker 8: Maybe Schumer isn't the man for the moment for Democrats.
Speaker 8: So he's worried about his leadership position as well. And again,
Speaker 8: you do have Democrats acting as if they don't think
Speaker 8: that they are going to pay a political price for
Speaker 8: this shutdown. And so there's not a ton of incentive
Speaker 8: or pressure on Schumer right now to accept what might
Speaker 8: be considered by the base a bad deal.
Speaker 1: All right, let me go over to the others. I
Speaker 1: have criticisms of the GOP as well. Congressman Fluberry is
Speaker 1: coming along later. He runs the Republican Study Committee, and
Speaker 1: I'm going to press him on reconciliation. Is it going anywhere?
Speaker 1: Because the GOP is not going to get anything done
Speaker 1: unless they do it on reconciliation.
Speaker 8: It's going to be an enormous challenge. You can only
Speaker 8: lose three senators if you're going to do that, and
Speaker 8: obviously the margins for Johnson maybe even smaller at this point,
Speaker 8: so it's really really hard to get all of.
Speaker 3: The Republicans on board.
Speaker 8: But you're right, reconciliation will be the only train leaving
Speaker 8: this this year realistically for a lot of priorities, and
Speaker 8: there are a bunch of things that Republicans want to
Speaker 8: get done. They want some extra Pentagon funding for the Iranmar.
Speaker 8: There's some talk of potentially trying to shoehorn parts of
Speaker 8: the Save Act electron integrity measures into a reconciliation bill.
Speaker 3: And you could also put funding.
Speaker 8: For ice removal and enforcement operations in a separate bucket
Speaker 8: and fund it through reconciliation and not have to hash
Speaker 8: out all of this immigration enforcement stuff with the DHS deal.
Speaker 8: So there are a lot of reasons for Republicans to
Speaker 8: do a reconciliation bill, but because it's a heavy lift.
Speaker 8: That's why you've seen reluctant so far this year from Republicans.
Speaker 1: They could, I believe, fund DHS through the end of
Speaker 1: the Trump term so you don't have to worry about
Speaker 1: that again. They could take the Pentagon's floated two hundred billion,
Speaker 1: they could double it and add money for Golden Dome
Speaker 1: and the Golden Fleet, and they can. A lot of
Speaker 1: this stuff from say won't make it past the Senate
Speaker 1: part elementarian or a bird bath, but they're not going
Speaker 1: to get it through the talking filibuster either. They might
Speaker 1: as well take a run at it. And I just
Speaker 1: don't understand doing nothing. Does anyone tell you why they're
Speaker 1: doing nothing.
Speaker 8: I think there's fear for some of the vulnerable members.
Speaker 8: I mean, you have Susan Collins of Maine, for example,
Speaker 8: has said she doesn't love the idea of doing reconciliation.
Speaker 8: She's going to be in a very bitter reelection battle
Speaker 8: this year, So you do have some Republicans on the
Speaker 8: bubble who are nervous about voting for stuff that might
Speaker 8: come back to haunt them and You're right about parts
Speaker 8: of the Save Act not making it through the bird bath.
Speaker 8: There's talk of potentially measures that might incentivize states to
Speaker 8: pass their own voter ID laws, but that certainly will
Speaker 8: not satisfy conservatives who say, this is an eighty twenty issue.
Speaker 8: It's so popular even most Democrats support it. Why can't
Speaker 8: a Republican trifecta in Washington.
Speaker 6: Deliver this for us?
Speaker 3: And that's a valid criticism from conservatives.
Speaker 1: Well, it's not of a not in my eyes of criticism,
Speaker 1: because the bilibuster is the filibuster is the filibuster, and
Speaker 1: if we change it, it's gone forever. And I guess
Speaker 1: Republicans just have to be willing to stand up and
Speaker 1: say that, and Mike Lee will get mad. But Mike
Speaker 1: is a good guy, you know. The Republicans who understand
Speaker 1: this do not want to end the filibuster. Has anyone
Speaker 1: made the argument yet?
Speaker 9: No.
Speaker 8: I think you're right that there's not an appetite to
Speaker 8: end the filibuster. But there could be a way that
Speaker 8: Republicans could break out the most popular parts of the
Speaker 8: Save Act, and I'm talking primarily about voter ID and
Speaker 8: strip out the things like the proof of citizenship, to
Speaker 8: register to vote, and the stuff that Democrats have really
Speaker 8: voiced more aggressive objections over. It would be hard for
Speaker 8: Democrats to oppose a voter ID only bill, And in fact,
Speaker 8: Schumer has sort of hinted that, look, we're not opposed
Speaker 8: to voter I D we know eighty percent of America
Speaker 8: wants it. It's all that other stuff. So Republicans could
Speaker 8: sort of strategize and not let perfect be the enemy
Speaker 8: of the good if they really want and voter ID.
Speaker 1: I hope they do that. I didn't realize you what said.
Speaker 1: They should get what they can. The good must not
Speaker 1: be the perfect, must not be the enemy. They're good.
Speaker 1: Sarah C. Bedford on X from The Washington Examiner, good
Speaker 1: to talk to you. Thank you, Sarah. Don't go any America.
Speaker 1: Danny Pletka from ai AS next as we go back
Speaker 1: to the war, Stay tuned, Welcome back in America. I'm
Speaker 1: Hugh Ewett, Danny Pleck, Senior fellow at American Enterprise Institute,
Speaker 1: co host with Mark Tison of What the Hell Is
Speaker 1: Going On podcast. I saw Mark out for dinner on
Speaker 1: Virginia Danny, and I thought Danny's probably working. Mark's out
Speaker 1: here having drinks. That's not really fair, Danny. You ought
Speaker 1: to tell him he needs to be working more. I'm
Speaker 1: so glad you're here because I want to ask you
Speaker 1: is do you think the Trump administration has it in
Speaker 1: them to finish the job? And by that I mean
Speaker 1: bite down. It might mean high energy prices for three months,
Speaker 1: it might take three months to clear the straight of
Speaker 1: horror moves, but bring this down? Do you think they've
Speaker 1: got it?
Speaker 3: So that's a great question.
Speaker 4: I think that the problem is the end of the sentence.
Speaker 4: Does the Trump administration have what it takes to fill
Speaker 4: in the blank if it's to open this trads of formus.
Speaker 4: I think there's no question they have what it takes.
Speaker 4: They have a plan. I think that they are executing
Speaker 4: on that plan. I think the President hasn't faltered. I
Speaker 4: think he recognizes that he can not allow the Iranians
Speaker 4: to at will close the straight. But if the question
Speaker 4: is does he have the will to see our campaign
Speaker 4: from the air tople the regime? I think the answer
Speaker 4: to that increasingly is no.
Speaker 1: Why do you think that? Because I'm betting unless they
Speaker 1: hit his fifteen points, which is effectively the dismantling of
Speaker 1: the regime, in the way that the South Africans gave
Speaker 1: up their nukes and the Libyans gave up their nukes.
Speaker 1: They're not the regime anymore, Harmonias, They're corrupt dictators at
Speaker 1: that point, Why do you think Trump will blink if
Speaker 1: they don't deal.
Speaker 4: I don't think it's a question of blinking, Hugh. I
Speaker 4: think it's a question of defining his end game. And increasingly,
Speaker 4: what I hear in Washington, and frankly from the Israelis
Speaker 4: as well, although I'm hearing a lot, is that their
Speaker 4: aim is to create the circumstances under which the Iranian
Speaker 4: people can reclaim their country. It is not to bomb
Speaker 4: the regime into smithereens.
Speaker 3: So there's nothing left.
Speaker 4: And I will say this, if you and I think
Speaker 4: about this, and you have a lot of experience, you know,
Speaker 4: going back decades as well, if you think about this,
Speaker 4: there are very few campaigns from the air that execute
Speaker 4: a regime change, so you know, so I think those
Speaker 4: are the big caveats right now. And that's very much
Speaker 4: what I'm hearing, and that is what my co host
Speaker 4: Mark Tissen is hearing as well.
Speaker 1: So what do you think happens if the we will stipulate.
Speaker 1: The Iranian people want to be rid of this regime
Speaker 1: and they would fight for it if they had weapons.
Speaker 1: What happens if Iran runs out of electricity and oil?
Speaker 1: I mean, if we really do shatter their infrastructure like
Speaker 1: the President threatened to do and then walked it back.
Speaker 1: Is that good for the Iranian people? It's bad, it
Speaker 1: would be make rebuilding harder. But in the short term,
Speaker 1: doesn't it make it easier to throw off the regime? Yes?
Speaker 4: Absolutely, I couldn't agree with you more. Look, you know,
Speaker 4: on the one hand, you want to preserve as much
Speaker 4: as is possible in order for a successor regime to
Speaker 4: take over. On the other hand, you need to recognize
Speaker 4: there are forty seven years here, and as you and
Speaker 4: I have discussed previously, this isn't a strong man government.
Speaker 4: This is a system. This is a dictatorship. The Islamic
Speaker 4: Republic is a giant infrastructure and it needs to be crushed.
Speaker 4: And unfortunately there will be some baby thrown out with
Speaker 4: the bathwater here.
Speaker 1: Well, what worried me this week is that they began
Speaker 1: to get old timers off the bench, people who fought
Speaker 1: in the eighty eighty eight war IRGC retired general. They're killers,
Speaker 1: They're not They're enjoying their lucre. They're enjoying their corruption,
Speaker 1: but they've been brought back to kill the next wave
Speaker 1: of that regime's not changing, Danny. Do you think there's
Speaker 1: any chance of it changing?
Speaker 4: Not a chance, No, absolutely not. Look, they are inextricably
Speaker 4: tied to it. And I would add, there's so much
Speaker 4: money at stake. Even if you discount the ideology, and
Speaker 4: I don't discount the ideology. These people believe that they
Speaker 4: are God's chosen leaders.
Speaker 3: They believe that they are.
Speaker 4: The only people who can lead in wrong. And even
Speaker 4: if you set that aside and you think that's a
Speaker 4: bunch of you know, think tank clap trap. They have
Speaker 4: so much money that they've stolen and they if they
Speaker 4: are going to hold on to that money, they need
Speaker 4: to hold onto power.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you know a Valley Naser, he's
Speaker 1: all right, JOHNS Hopkins, and he wrote the book Iran's
Speaker 1: Grand Strategy. When you read that or you listen to
Speaker 1: the Ready g they're never going it's a zombie regime.
Speaker 1: But it's pretty hard to kill a zombie. You agree
Speaker 1: with that assessment, it is.
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely I mean, look, you know, I watch cable
Speaker 4: TV just like everybody else, and I know just.
Speaker 7: How hard zombies are to kill.
Speaker 4: And you know, of one of Iran's most loving analysts
Speaker 4: here in Washington, somebody who really always takes the side
Speaker 4: of the regime, said to me a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 4: You know, he said, the regime says that thirty percent
Speaker 4: of the people are with them. Even if that's half true,
Speaker 4: we are talking about millions and millions of people. This
Speaker 4: is going to be a hard job. I think the
Speaker 4: Iranian people can do it. I think there's a tipping point.
Speaker 4: I think we can help push it. But I worry
Speaker 4: that both the Israelis and the Americans are overconfident in
Speaker 4: our ability to put the Iranians in a position from
Speaker 4: which they can't come back.
Speaker 5: They can always come back.
Speaker 1: Are we too restrained? And by that I mean they
Speaker 1: do have power plants, they do have oil production facilities.
Speaker 1: They have command and control structures that will blinker the
Speaker 1: entire city and throw it into darkness. They have overpasses,
Speaker 1: they have roads and bridges. We did not spare that
Speaker 1: with the Allies in World War Two. We didn't spare
Speaker 1: it with Vietnam, and I'm not sure we should be
Speaker 1: sparing it now, should we?
Speaker 4: No, you are completely right, and there are other mistakes
Speaker 4: we're making in terms of the assets we have. We
Speaker 4: should absolutely be hitting everything. We should be allowing the
Speaker 4: Israelis to hit what we're not hitting. And in addition,
Speaker 4: only fifty percent of Iran is Persian. There are Azari's
Speaker 4: that are Ba Loochs, there are Kurds. Everyone hates this regime.
Speaker 4: This regime has.
Speaker 3: Murdered absolutely everybody.
Speaker 4: And if they're bad to the Persians, you can only
Speaker 4: imagine what they're like to other minorities. Those people want
Speaker 4: to stand up and revolt. Those people want to march
Speaker 4: on towns in the north, in the south, and we
Speaker 4: should be letting them. So far, the president has not
Speaker 4: been willing to let them, in part because because Erduwan,
Speaker 4: the dictator in Turkey, does not want to see the
Speaker 4: Turks get the Kurds get any any liberty whatsoever, and
Speaker 4: so he's talking him out of it day on day out,
Speaker 4: and that's wrong.
Speaker 1: I did not know that, and that is why we
Speaker 1: talked to Danny Plutka follower he Plukka at Ai and
Speaker 1: listen to what the hell is going on with Mark Tishan. Danny,
Speaker 1: don't let him go out and drink when you're working.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you I saw him out there at the bar.
Speaker 1: Thanks having a good time, I mean, with work on.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Danny. I'll be right back to America States
Speaker 1: in America. I'm Hugh Hewittt. Welcome to the second hour
Speaker 1: of today's program. I'm joined by Abe Greenwald. Abe is
Speaker 1: the executive editor of Commentary magazine. He's also a frequent contributor,
Speaker 1: almost daily contributor to the Commentary podcast. Abe. I found
Speaker 1: today's podcast to be very interesting, especially towards the end
Speaker 1: when you raised the possibility that maybe persuasion is no
Speaker 1: longer possible in America. You want to expand on that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, sadly, I think that's true, and actually I wrote
Speaker 3: a newsletter.
Speaker 10: To that effect that was sent out just about half
Speaker 10: an hour ago. I think that Donald Trump should have
Speaker 10: laid out a lucid and convincing argument for going into
Speaker 10: Iran when he did in the way he did. But
Speaker 10: I think you should have done it because that's the
Speaker 10: job description. Do I think it would have weighted some
Speaker 10: vast number of Americans who are now doubting the war.
Speaker 5: No, I don't.
Speaker 10: And to whatever extent it would do so, I think
Speaker 10: I apologize my dog is growling. So whatever extent it
Speaker 10: would do so, it would I think that would be
Speaker 10: very fleeting. As the media anti war coverage, Walt's war,
Speaker 10: anti war coverage has just swallowed up what is really
Speaker 10: an ongoing string of remarkable successes in this war.
Speaker 3: So the effort to talk.
Speaker 10: Down this war, to discuss it as if it's some
Speaker 10: sort of travesty, is so overwhelming. I mean, I'm kind
Speaker 10: of reminded of the argument that people made about Israel
Speaker 10: post October seventh that, you know, if the Israelis just
Speaker 10: could explain better to people why they were doing what
Speaker 10: they were doing in response.
Speaker 3: To October seventh, as if October seventh wasn't proof enough
Speaker 3: taped and filmed for everyone to see, wasn't the case
Speaker 3: enough for what the Israelis were doing?
Speaker 10: And so similarly, if you look back on forty seven
Speaker 10: year history of the running regime, it's provocations, it's violence,
Speaker 10: it's killing, its weapons development, its terror supporting, and so on,
Speaker 10: and you don't see the case for war right now,
Speaker 10: You're not going to see.
Speaker 1: It, you know, Hey, I am reminded of the movie
Speaker 1: Chariots of Fire. Did you ever see it? Yes? Okay,
Speaker 1: So the sprinter is the Jewish Kid nineteen twenty Olympics
Speaker 1: true story, and he asks a professional track coach make
Speaker 1: me faster. He says, you can't put in what God
Speaker 1: left out. God has left out of a lot of
Speaker 1: Americans basic knowledge about the evil nature of the regime
Speaker 1: in Iran. I mean, I don't think they understand it.
Speaker 1: So it's the equal the Chinese Communist Party, and they
Speaker 1: are the equal of Putin on his worst day. These
Speaker 1: are the three worst regimes in the world. North Korea
Speaker 1: would be in that rank, except they've done about as
Speaker 1: much damage as they can do short of precipitating in
Speaker 1: nuclear war. Do you think Americans understand how evil Iran
Speaker 1: is and its ambitions?
Speaker 3: No, I think they're doubtful. I think they don't quite
Speaker 3: believe it.
Speaker 10: I think that's also because we suffer from still Vietnam syndrome,
Speaker 10: Iraq and Afghanistan syndrome. And then that's all complicated by
Speaker 10: Trump derangement syndrome.
Speaker 5: And on the left you have.
Speaker 10: These anti colonialist idelogus who believe that any action the
Speaker 10: US takes his prima facia a war crime, and on
Speaker 10: the right, a lot of what used to go under
Speaker 10: the banner of patriotism has been swallow up by nationalism,
Speaker 10: which looks at American national interests from the most narrow
Speaker 10: lens and would say, well, even if they are an
Speaker 10: evil regime, what does.
Speaker 3: That have to do with us? So I think all
Speaker 3: told yes.
Speaker 1: No now At twelve forty seven this afternoon East cost time,
Speaker 1: Ambassador Yusef Alotaiba, who is the United Arab Emirates Ambassador
Speaker 1: to the United States and really one of the most
Speaker 1: talented people in the business inside of DC. I've had
Speaker 1: an opportunity to have dinner with him a few times.
Speaker 1: He worked very hard at making his country understood to
Speaker 1: the Beltway press corps. He posted a piece over at
Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal which I recommend to every listener,
Speaker 1: and it reminds people the UAE, which is forty miles
Speaker 1: away from Iran across the Strait of Hormos, has absorbed
Speaker 1: two thousand, one hundred and eighty missiles projectile drones. They're
Speaker 1: standing tall with us, and it finishes the tagline is
Speaker 1: that this war requires a conclusive outcome, one that addresses
Speaker 1: Tehran's full range of threats and the way that it ends.
Speaker 1: The last three paragraphs. Iran's nuclear capabilities have been degraded,
Speaker 1: its proxies have been weakened. More needs to be done
Speaker 1: to remove the missile and drone threats, and we are
Speaker 1: ready to join an international initiative to reopen the strait
Speaker 1: and keep it open. We aren't asking the US to
Speaker 1: carry the full burden. We are defending our people, protecting
Speaker 1: regional stability and global prosperity, demonstrating that re alliances are
Speaker 1: built on cooperation and contribution, not dependency. Finally, we want
Speaker 1: Iran as a normal neighbor. It can be reclusive and
Speaker 1: even unwelcoming, but it can't attack its neighbors, blockade international waters,
Speaker 1: or export extremism. Building a fence around the problem and
Speaker 1: wishing it goes away isn't the answer. It would simply
Speaker 1: defer the next crisis. That is blunt blunt can get
Speaker 1: that puts u AE in with US in Israel. Don't
Speaker 1: you think it's time that Trump just resolves to finish
Speaker 1: the job.
Speaker 10: Sure, and I'm not I'm not certain that that he's
Speaker 10: He doesn't feel the same way. You know, he's very
Speaker 10: hard to read, to put it very mildly, and part
Speaker 10: of my thinking here, my suspicion is that in his
Speaker 10: announcing these very positive talks, suppose it talks with Iran,
Speaker 10: is in sense some way of him demonstrating for the
Speaker 10: world going to that he's going to get an unreasonable
Speaker 10: response from the running regime that's going to reject diplomacy,
Speaker 10: and that he will then have made a stronger case
Speaker 10: for finishing the job after.
Speaker 1: Now finishing the job. In my view, I don't think
Speaker 1: we're going to send ground troops and in any sort
Speaker 1: of maybe to secure this strait. I don't know. I'm
Speaker 1: a civilian, but I do think it means taking out
Speaker 1: their dual use power plants, taking out their oil refineries,
Speaker 1: taking out their bridges and roads that allow command and
Speaker 1: control the function. In other words, treating it like an
Speaker 1: enemy in World War two, but with the precision that
Speaker 1: can save civilian lives. Would you support that?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 3: Sure, I would support that. I mean I would probably
Speaker 3: go farther. I mean, I think we should retrieve fistle material.
Speaker 3: I think that would be a wise move.
Speaker 1: And I think.
Speaker 10: Then there's job finishing that goes beyond what America.
Speaker 5: May be willing to put itself on the line.
Speaker 10: For In other words, I'd be perfectly fine if we
Speaker 10: left under the conditions that you describe. I'm very doubtful
Speaker 10: that there wouldn't be some ongoing operations having to do
Speaker 10: with Israel and the Masade and their coordination with.
Speaker 3: The run people to actually overthrow the regime.
Speaker 1: And I also but that's if we took out the
Speaker 1: infrastructure and we said we had to do it. The
Speaker 1: regime is irredeemable. They're promoting by the way, they're getting
Speaker 1: old Irgc people off the bench. They're bringing it hardened
Speaker 1: killers who had, you know, walked through minefields in the
Speaker 1: Iraq Iran War. They're true believers, their fanatics. If we
Speaker 1: just said we had to do it, We're sorry, America.
Speaker 1: We spared as many lives. They will be bankrupt, they
Speaker 1: will be out of gas, they will have no friends.
Speaker 1: Isn't that the way to bring it down?
Speaker 10: I think that's that's that's where that's the road we're
Speaker 10: headed down. Yeah, and I think that that is exactly right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and should I think Republicans ought to just stand
Speaker 1: up and say we support this, we want to pass
Speaker 1: the Supplemental we are the party of Security and Defense,
Speaker 1: and go into the November elections and let the Democrats
Speaker 1: be in favor of leaving this evil regime in place.
Speaker 5: Sure, I mean.
Speaker 10: I have to admit I think part of the calculation
Speaker 10: here on the administration's part is that maybe the midterms
Speaker 10: are a lost cause anyway, So let's do what's necessary
Speaker 10: and then we'll let the chips fall where they may.
Speaker 10: If the war proceeds along the same lines that it's
Speaker 10: been going up till now, I think it's going to
Speaker 10: be the kind of situation where six months from now,
Speaker 10: polls will show a large chunk of Americans saying, oh,
Speaker 10: I was always for it.
Speaker 1: I agree. But do you think President Trump understands this
Speaker 1: is the most important month of his presidency in history's terms.
Speaker 1: I think it is We're not going to go to
Speaker 1: war with China if we can avoid it. I think
Speaker 1: this is the month. Do you agree with that?
Speaker 3: One hundred he's going all in on changing the world.
Speaker 10: I think he's very cognizant of that, and I think
Speaker 10: it's reflected in.
Speaker 3: His demeanor, his behavior, the way he speaks. He is
Speaker 3: not rattled.
Speaker 10: He's unbelievably focused, and I think I think I think
Speaker 10: he's you know, there's a lot of discomfort with Trump's
Speaker 10: being murky about messaging and being contradictory about messaging, and
Speaker 10: I have to say I've grown quite comfortable with it
Speaker 10: because I think there's a good strategic reason for doing that,
Speaker 10: and he's using that well.
Speaker 1: I heard you say that today. I just said I
Speaker 1: can't wait to talk to Ada. You're exactly right, Ed
Speaker 1: Greenwald follo him on exit a Greenwald. Sign up for
Speaker 1: the newsletter at commentary dot org and listen to the
Speaker 1: podcast every day. You'll be smarter for it. Thank you,
Speaker 1: a stay tuned, America. I'll be right back talking back, America.
Speaker 1: I'm cue Hewitt. Early visit this week from Matt Continetti.
Speaker 1: Matt is the head of Domestic Policy Studies at ai
Speaker 1: SO also calumn is for the Wall Street Journal. He
Speaker 1: has an excellent column in Today Journal entitled I Got
Speaker 1: to get the title right. Get to the right page here.
Speaker 1: Voters lose in congressional WrestleMania, and my favorite line in
Speaker 1: it is Washington is too distracted by bitter infighting. It's
Speaker 1: too busy imitating professional wrestling to address voters economic concerns.
Speaker 1: Matt You're exactly right, you expect that's going to change
Speaker 1: anytime soon.
Speaker 3: Unfortunately not you.
Speaker 11: I mean, we can just see what's happening on Capitol Hill,
Speaker 11: where there seemed like there could be a deal to
Speaker 11: open up the Department of Homeland Security and address the
Speaker 11: pay lapses for TSA agents. But it seems like the
Speaker 11: Democrats are getting cold feet. Why because they're so fearful
Speaker 11: of their far left base, which despises ICE so much
Speaker 11: that the Democrats are willing to impose costs on an
Speaker 11: entirely different set of federal employees, the TSA agents, the Coastguard, FEMA,
Speaker 11: all of whom are suffering because of this shutdown, while
Speaker 11: ICE ironically is fully funded for years thanks to the
Speaker 11: working Family's tax cut that was passed via reconciliation last year.
Speaker 11: So this type of empty, gestural politics that we're witnessing
Speaker 11: on Capitol Hill doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon.
Speaker 1: It's a pretty damning piece. I recommend everyone go and
Speaker 1: read it. But I also want to talk about the
Speaker 1: world historical event that's unfolding. This war has the possibility
Speaker 1: of taking off of the map the equal of any
Speaker 1: evil regime on the world's map and a thorn in
Speaker 1: the side of free people for forty seven years. First question,
Speaker 1: do you think Americans realize how evil Iran is the regime?
Speaker 1: I do?
Speaker 5: I do.
Speaker 11: I think that when you've looked at American public opinion
Speaker 11: prior to the launch of Operation Epic Fury, Americans have
Speaker 11: understood the Iranian regime for what it is. It's the
Speaker 11: world's largest sponsor of terrorism. It's killed Americans, it's held
Speaker 11: our people hostage, it's attacked our allies, it's oppressed its
Speaker 11: own people. Now, the public opinion currently is I think,
Speaker 11: refracted through the lens of Donald Trump. And so when
Speaker 11: you see these polls saying that the public may be
Speaker 11: divided on what we're doing right now in Iran, I
Speaker 11: think you always have to read them with the view to, well,
Speaker 11: how does the public feel about Donald Trump? And we
Speaker 11: know that about half the country right now won't accept
Speaker 11: anything that Donald Trump does, even if he is addressing
Speaker 11: a longstanding threat to American national security, like he's doing
Speaker 11: with our Israeli allies in Iran right.
Speaker 1: Now now about twelve forty seven today, the Journal posted
Speaker 1: an editorial by Ambassador Yusuf Alataiba from the United Arab
Speaker 1: Emirates of the United States, one of the true professionals
Speaker 1: in diplomacy inside the Beltway. In it, he basically the
Speaker 1: subtitle says it all this war requires a conclusive outcome,
Speaker 1: one that addresses Tehran's full range of threats. And I
Speaker 1: recommend I read part of it to Abe Greenwald in
Speaker 1: the last segment. And the bottom line is finish the
Speaker 1: job Donald Trump. He doesn't say it explicitly, but that's
Speaker 1: the message. Do you think the President has it in
Speaker 1: him to finish the job? Oh?
Speaker 3: I think he has it in him.
Speaker 11: I think that he's hearing messages like Ambassador of Taibas
Speaker 11: from other partners, including the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia NBS,
Speaker 11: probably other Gulf states as well. We know that's the
Speaker 11: message he's hearing from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netan Yahoo.
Speaker 5: So President Trump wants to hold out.
Speaker 11: The possibility of a diplomatic resolution, but when you actually
Speaker 11: look at what the Americans are asking of the Iranians,
Speaker 11: it's nothing that the Iranians will accept because it's the
Speaker 11: same thing that we've been offering earlier. And when you
Speaker 11: look at what the Iranians are counteroffering the Americans. It's
Speaker 11: nothing America would accept. I mean, it's absurd, but it
Speaker 11: would involve US recognizing Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaker 11: It would involve US paying Iran reparations for the attack.
Speaker 11: So I think while President Trump always holds out diplomacy
Speaker 11: is an option, he recognizes the need for force, and
Speaker 11: he also uses diplomacy sometimes as cover for putting our
Speaker 11: forces in place. So I think it's very interesting that
Speaker 11: the end of Trump's latest deadline for the Iranians to
Speaker 11: agree to the diplomatic proposal will coincide with the arrival
Speaker 11: of our marines and some of our components of the
Speaker 11: eighty second Airborne into the region. So he may just be,
Speaker 11: like earlier, playing out the diplomatic channel while he's putting
Speaker 11: all of his forces in place for the next stage
Speaker 11: at the conflict.
Speaker 1: So how would you react, Matt Continent, Given that we
Speaker 1: precision strike, we can blow up every bridge, we can
Speaker 1: blow up every power plant, we can blow up every refinery,
Speaker 1: bankrupt the regime so it cannot pay its forces. They
Speaker 1: are not promoting moderates into these positions that are vacant
Speaker 1: because of assassinations. They're pulling old IRGC people out of
Speaker 1: the off the retirement rolls, off the bench and their killers.
Speaker 1: So they're not gonna blink, They're not gonna change. Shouldn't
Speaker 1: we reduce them to poverty before we throw ground trips
Speaker 1: in there and then wait and see what happens. Well, Hugh, I.
Speaker 11: Think we need to reduce the regime to poverty. What
Speaker 11: I think that means is we need to take a
Speaker 11: real hard look at the sources of revenue to the regime,
Speaker 11: and that does mean their energy flows. And so that
Speaker 11: does mean that not only do we need to get
Speaker 11: the Strait of Harmuz open, create a channel for commercial
Speaker 11: traffic free of Iranian threats, but we should also look
Speaker 11: at stopping the Iranian ghost fleet, stopping their refining capacity.
Speaker 11: I'd be reluctant to take measures that would affect the
Speaker 11: Iranian civilian population because we're going to rely on that
Speaker 11: civilian population to be the boots on the ground in
Speaker 11: overthrowing the regime.
Speaker 3: Eventually.
Speaker 11: When I listen to the military experts like General Frank
Speaker 11: Mackenzie or Admiral Mark Montgomery on your program, it seems
Speaker 11: to me that the military has a war plan in place,
Speaker 11: and one that they have been pursuing very effectively, and
Speaker 11: that probably has two to three more weeks left in
Speaker 11: it before all of our military objectives are complete. I
Speaker 11: trust General Kin, I trust Admiral Cooper, I trust our
Speaker 11: US fighting men and women to pursue that plan, and
Speaker 11: I think at the end of it will have a
Speaker 11: very good outcome, so long as we don't abandon the
Speaker 11: effort before all of our objectives are complete.
Speaker 1: Well, I would follow through on their target list, but
Speaker 1: before we called it a day and sailed away with
Speaker 1: a straight open and their ability to blackmail US reduced,
Speaker 1: I would darken the place because I think it would
Speaker 1: assist the Iranian people and frame themselves if the agents
Speaker 1: of repression don't have the internet or energy. Last word
Speaker 1: to you, Matt.
Speaker 11: I agree, and I think that just points to the
Speaker 11: fact that even when the bombs stop dropping, Hugh America
Speaker 11: will still have a role to play. The people haven't
Speaker 11: taken to the streets yet, but when they do, they're
Speaker 11: going to need our support. That's why Trump sent help
Speaker 11: in the first place. So when they do go out
Speaker 11: on the streets, we need to be prepared to help
Speaker 11: them finally overthrow this regime.
Speaker 1: Well said, By the way, if they do that, I
Speaker 1: believe that will make up a lot of ground in politics.
Speaker 1: But more importantly, from history's perspective, this is Donald Trump's
Speaker 1: big moment. Last do you agree with that, Matt. It's
Speaker 1: his big moment. It's his moment.
Speaker 11: Like he told the Atlantic, this is his time to
Speaker 11: run the country in the world, and he's changing the
Speaker 11: world in extraordinary ways. You know, it's so funny, Hugh,
Speaker 11: quickly remember she Jenping said that the world was going
Speaker 11: to see things that hadn't seen in one hundred years. Well,
Speaker 11: he was half right, except it's Donald Trump that's making
Speaker 11: those things happen.
Speaker 1: Well said Matt Connetty follow him on exit continent. He
Speaker 1: read his peaches in the Wall Street Journal and over Ady,
Speaker 1: I thank you, Matt, coming right back with Congressman Fluger.
Speaker 1: Don't go anywhere, America. I'm Hugh Hewett. Welcome back America.
Speaker 1: I'm he Hewett. I spend most of my time on
Speaker 1: the war, but once in a while I sneak in
Speaker 1: someone who does a little bit of policy, including Representative
Speaker 1: Andy Vlueger from Texas. He's the chairman of the Republican
Speaker 1: Study Committee and August. Excuse me, I say, Andy, I'm sorry, August.
Speaker 1: And you gave a speech on X that I saw
Speaker 1: talking about the Democrats and the shutdown of Deehat. Do
Speaker 1: you think that issue is going to last Congressman through
Speaker 1: to the fall.
Speaker 9: Well, I mean, my Democrat colleagues on the Homeland Committee said, well,
Speaker 9: let me tell you.
Speaker 3: Why we got here. We got here.
Speaker 9: Because ICE agents were taking illegal aliens out of the country.
Speaker 9: And you know, the narrative is just that they were
Speaker 9: very emotional about it, and I just had to refute that.
Speaker 9: I said, No, the reason we got here is because
Speaker 9: we're cleaning up a mess where ten million illegal aliens
Speaker 9: have come into this country under Joe Biden's presidency, which
Speaker 9: was a complete disaster. And I said, not a single
Speaker 9: Democrat had any sympathy for Joscelyn nunger A's parents or
Speaker 9: for Lake and Riley's parents, who were both tragically murdered
Speaker 9: by illegal aliens. That's the reason we're here. And now
Speaker 9: you're unwilling, even with an open border policy that was
Speaker 9: completely disastrous, you're unwilling to support TSA agents, Coast guardsmen,
Speaker 9: Border patrol or ICE to just do their job to
Speaker 9: keep our country safe, even though we heard testimony today
Speaker 9: saying the terror threat on our American airlines is still high.
Speaker 3: So it's very shameful.
Speaker 5: And it's try that we're in this situation.
Speaker 9: And yes, I don't think that this issue is going
Speaker 9: to continue to be an issue that defines the Democrats
Speaker 9: of who they are.
Speaker 1: I think Republicans have taken back the party of Defense
Speaker 1: and deterrence, and I think seriousness. How about a reconciliation bill,
Speaker 1: a second process that funds depending on supplemental times too,
Speaker 1: given whatever they want in times to, and then funds
Speaker 1: DHS through the end of the Trump term so we
Speaker 1: don't have to deal with this insanity. I mean, there
Speaker 1: are has been lots of leaper sells. I was in
Speaker 1: the government a long time ago. I know there are
Speaker 1: a lot of bad guys. How about just using reconciliation
Speaker 1: to get the garment working again?
Speaker 9: Well, Hugh, as you know, I chair the Republican Study
Speaker 9: Committee one hundred and ninety members. We've been pushing for
Speaker 9: reconciliation for months now, and we are certainly open to
Speaker 9: a defense supplemental in DHS funding, but I think it
Speaker 9: needs to be more than that. You know, Democrats have
Speaker 9: obstructed passing anything. If President Trump cured cancer, they would
Speaker 9: vote against it. And that's the trage nature of where
Speaker 9: we are.
Speaker 3: So we have to.
Speaker 9: Codify the rest of President Trump's agenda, and reconciliation is
Speaker 9: the mechanism by which we can do this. So, yes,
Speaker 9: we can certainly include defense supplemental and DHS funding, but
Speaker 9: I don't think that can be the sole focus of this.
Speaker 1: When's it get started? What frustrates me because I don't
Speaker 1: want to lose the midterms. I don't think it's an inevitability.
Speaker 1: I certainly don't think losing the Senate's an inevitability. But
Speaker 1: you got to do something. What are we waiting for?
Speaker 9: Well, you're speaking my language. This is exactly what we
Speaker 9: have been pushing through the RSC.
Speaker 3: Let's go. We did such a good job through.
Speaker 9: One big, beautiful bill of identifying so many of Joe
Speaker 9: Biden's errors and the things that he caused pain and
Speaker 9: suffering to every American family with. But there is more
Speaker 9: work to be done, you know, and our constituents want
Speaker 9: to know that we can unify even with a one
Speaker 9: seat majority. We can and we will unify. And this
Speaker 9: is why we have been moving with the sense of urgency.
Speaker 9: RSC with one hundred ninety members has come together and
Speaker 9: so we want to do this. I know the Speaker
Speaker 9: is in favor of it. Let's put the items on
Speaker 9: the board that we think we can accomplish. That include
Speaker 9: housing affordability, healthcare affordability, energy affordability, but now probably also
Speaker 9: need to include national security and defense items.
Speaker 1: So when does that decision get made? Congressman further, when
Speaker 1: does somebody say the starting gun goes off?
Speaker 9: Well, I think the starting gun has gone off, and
Speaker 9: there are many of us who are working on this,
Speaker 9: and I know Chairman and Jody Arrington is extremely motivated
Speaker 9: as the Budget Committee chair to move this. So I
Speaker 9: think the starting gun has gone off, and we as
Speaker 9: a conference we'll be looking at a lot of the
Speaker 9: proposals and making those recommendations to Speaker Johnson asap.
Speaker 1: Okay, So last question, how long does it take once
Speaker 1: the Budget Committee gets the work, gets a budget, gets
Speaker 1: it over to the Senate and they agree, and then
Speaker 1: you got to go to the authorizing committees and the
Speaker 1: Committee of Jurisdiction. How long until we could see that
Speaker 1: get through Because if that arrived in June or July,
Speaker 1: it could change the dynamic in the fall.
Speaker 9: Well, certainly, and that's the goal I think you just
Speaker 9: nailed it is. This has to arrive no later than
Speaker 9: June July timeframe. This is a two minute drill. You know,
Speaker 9: the one Big Beautiful Bill was really more of the
Speaker 9: long game, and we had some time on our side
Speaker 9: to get that done by the July fourth date that
Speaker 9: we set last year. But this is a two minute drill.
Speaker 9: It's more compact and narrow. The focus will be narrower.
Speaker 9: So you know, you just nailed it. I mean, we
Speaker 9: have to get this passed no later than July, and
Speaker 9: it will have an impact because those policies will come
Speaker 9: into play and American families will benefit from all of them,
Speaker 9: and our nation will be safer and more secure as
Speaker 9: a result of us continuing to work. We're not done
Speaker 9: and we're going to continue to fight every single day.
Speaker 1: Well, bravo on your floor remarks, and we're floor remarks
Speaker 1: behind a podium with other members, and I thought, well done,
Speaker 1: August Bleuler, Thank you so much, Congressman. Keep pushing the RSC,
Speaker 1: to keep pushing the leadership, to keep pushing reconciliation because
Speaker 1: we need it. Don't go anywhere in America. I'm coming
Speaker 1: right back on the hu Human Show. Welcome Back America.
Speaker 1: I'm Hugh Hewitt, joined now by Josh Krashauwer, editor in
Speaker 1: chief of Jewish Insider. Josh from your thirty thousand foot perspective,
Speaker 1: how goes the war?
Speaker 12: Well, look, it does seem like the Trump administration is
Speaker 12: trying to negotiate diplomatically with Iran and through back channels.
Speaker 12: Apparently it doesn't seem like Iran is receptive. From the
Speaker 12: looks of this fifteen point plan that was proposed, it
Speaker 12: looks like it's very similar to what was introduced to
Speaker 12: the Iranians before the war, and like was the case
Speaker 12: before the war, Iran has rejected it. So, you know,
Speaker 12: I don't think I think there is some domestic political
Speaker 12: pressure that Trump has faced, especially when it comes to
Speaker 12: higher gas prices. But when it comes to the military
Speaker 12: uh landscape, Look, I think the US and Israel are
Speaker 12: accomplishing things ahead of schedule and are actually achieving, as
Speaker 12: we've talked about on this show, a lot of their
Speaker 12: military objectives. The challenge though, is number one, the straight
Speaker 12: up wore moves and and and figuring out how to uh,
Speaker 12: you know, deal with that and clear clear up the shipping,
Speaker 12: and that may take uh, you know, more military action
Speaker 12: to do so, more more military assets, more UH personnel
Speaker 12: in the region. So that's a big, big, big wild
Speaker 12: card going forward. And I also think, you know, we're
Speaker 12: still seeing Israel being being in the Goal Skulf States
Speaker 12: as well, facing UH military or sorry ballistic missile attacks
Speaker 12: day in, day out. And and the question is, you know,
Speaker 12: how many how much more of the launchers and the
Speaker 12: missiles does I Ran have and how long is there
Speaker 12: is there is there a the stockpile gonna last for.
Speaker 1: Now, Josh. About three hours ago, Ambassador actually an hour
Speaker 1: and a half ago, Ambassador Yusef Alan Taiba from the
Speaker 1: United Arab Emirates to the United States posted published over
Speaker 1: at the Wall Street Journal a column the UAE stands
Speaker 1: up to Iran. This war requires a conclusive outcome, one
Speaker 1: that addresses to Tehran's full range of threats. Points out
Speaker 1: the UAE has been on the receiving end of twenty
Speaker 1: and eighty missiles, drones, rockets, you name it, and they've
Speaker 1: had it. I think that is a sign that the
Speaker 1: Golf allies are going to go over from being merely
Speaker 1: on the defensive, but to the offensive, and that the
Speaker 1: endgame's got to be the regime's got to go.
Speaker 12: What do you think, Well, yeah, not just usfl a
Speaker 12: little tibo who wrote that in the Wall Street Journal today,
Speaker 12: but we also saw the New York Times report you
Speaker 12: yesterday that the Saudis have urged Donald Trump and the
Speaker 12: administration to continue all to continue to fight militarily to
Speaker 12: get rid of the noxious regime in Iran. And then
Speaker 12: and I think they are much more concerned, frankly, that
Speaker 12: that there could be some remnant left in place and
Speaker 12: would still pose a threat, an ongoing threat to the
Speaker 12: Gulf states, their economies, and and and and their way
Speaker 12: of life. The the you know, I think the the
Speaker 12: Amoradi ambassador to the US, I think, in that column
Speaker 12: put it put it pretty well. He said, building a
Speaker 12: frience around the problem and wishing it goes away isn't
Speaker 12: the answer. It simply defers the next crisis. So if anything,
Speaker 12: and you know, you look at the where the UA
Speaker 12: in Saudi was before the war and where they are now.
Speaker 12: They're they're much more supportive of of the military action.
Speaker 12: They're not uh eager for it to end right now.
Speaker 12: They want more, more accomplishments on the battlefield, and they
Speaker 12: really have actually said that they would like to see
Speaker 12: a different regime in Iran, and so that that's a
Speaker 12: very notable comment from two of the closest golf state
Speaker 12: allies of the of the US.
Speaker 1: Now, I expect hutis are going to get involved here
Speaker 1: pretty soon, and the Iranians sort of suggested that today
Speaker 1: because the people that they're replacing the dead leadership with
Speaker 1: are veterans of the IRGC who had basically retired, but
Speaker 1: they're hard killers who are seventy years old, fought in
Speaker 1: the Iran I Rock War, part of the Revolutionary Guard.
Speaker 1: The original Solomani could force kind of harden those guys.
Speaker 1: They're never going to change, Josh, do you think that's
Speaker 1: the correct assessment. They don't know how to be normal.
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, I think that is the correct assessment.
Speaker 12: And intendidly like that's what a lot of the people
Speaker 12: who are a little more wary about the military operation
Speaker 12: had worried about, which is that you could get rid
Speaker 12: of some of the top leaders, as the US Israel
Speaker 12: operation has done, but you still have layers and layers
Speaker 12: of IERGC and besiege and other you know, you know,
Speaker 12: parts of the regime that are have every incentive to fight,
Speaker 12: fight till the death because otherwise, you know, they're they're
Speaker 12: every every benefit they've had since the nineteen seventy nine
Speaker 12: revolution is going to go away. So you know, this
Speaker 12: is you know, you've seen mixed reported on this, but
Speaker 12: you know, I think the initial notion that that you
Speaker 12: could easily with air strikes degrade and get rid of
Speaker 12: the regime is proving to be a little too optimistic,
Speaker 12: and it's probably gonna take you know, not only longer
Speaker 12: military action, but perhaps boots on the ground if they
Speaker 12: do want to achieve those ends, which I'm not sure
Speaker 12: if the US really wants to go that far, but there.
Speaker 1: Are boots on the ground. Before we go to boots
Speaker 1: on the ground, though, we can destroy their oil production.
Speaker 1: The UAE can seize their money, so can Bahrain. The
Speaker 1: port facilities can be destroyed, and indeed the power plant
Speaker 1: in Tehran, bridges can be blown out. All sorts of
Speaker 1: stuff can be done that doesn't involve boots on the air.
Speaker 1: It hurts the Iranian population short term, but the regime can't.
Speaker 1: It's a zombie regime already. Take away their oil and
Speaker 1: got nothing. Should we do that?
Speaker 12: Well, I think the Trump administration has shown that they
Speaker 12: are wary at least we've what we've seen in the
Speaker 12: last few days of actually destroying energy facilities that could
Speaker 12: actually hurt not just the people of Iran and then
Speaker 12: their ability to you know, the economy that totally and
Speaker 12: you know, in the economy of the regime so to speak,
Speaker 12: but it could also affect the global oil market. And
Speaker 12: you see that the Trump administration has been very receptive
Speaker 12: and very you know, concerned about the domestic political pressures
Speaker 12: back home about rising gas prices. So you know, I
Speaker 12: think that was certainly an option that was that was floated.
Speaker 12: But that was also when when Israel hit an energy
Speaker 12: facility of about a week ago, and the US apparently
Speaker 12: was supportive.
Speaker 1: Of it, but.
Speaker 12: They quickly backtracked when it turned out to affect the
Speaker 12: world market globally. So you know, I think a lot
Speaker 12: of sensitivities about the economy, and that's that's affecting the
Speaker 12: strategy here against Ran.
Speaker 1: There is but last word to you, at some point,
Speaker 1: if the objective is to get this regime collapsed, if
Speaker 1: they haven't collapsed after pages one through fourteen, don't we
Speaker 1: up there. We can't leave them there? Do you agree
Speaker 1: with me about that? You cannot leave them in place?
Speaker 12: Look at the very least, at least in me is
Speaker 12: really perspective.
Speaker 1: There's they want to wipe out.
Speaker 12: The missile launchers, the ballistic missiles, and I think the
Speaker 12: next most important thing is getting rid of the nuclear material.
Speaker 12: That may also require some special operation forces to do that.
Speaker 12: So there may need to be more more you know,
Speaker 12: more more assets or more you know, military personnel in
Speaker 12: the in the region to handle some of the operational goals.
Speaker 12: But I think you know, they've done a lot and
Speaker 12: the question is what is the timeline going forward?
Speaker 1: I hope they do a lot more. Josh croush Houer,
Speaker 1: thank you. Follow them on Act Josh crash Hower. Read
Speaker 1: him at Jewish Insider. Stay tuned. I'm coming back and
Speaker 1: the Ready Gore next hour on the Huge Hewitt Show.
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Speaker 1: And thank you Lauren and Etangrace America. I'm Hugh Hewett
Speaker 1: has promised Aviv Reta Gore is back. He is the
Speaker 1: Middle East correspondent for The Free Press. He's also the
Speaker 1: host of Ask Kaviv Anything. And if you ever join
Speaker 1: a Patreon community, this is the Patreon community to join Heviv,
Speaker 1: thank you for joining with me today. I got a
Speaker 1: lot to talk to you about. But I'm sort of
Speaker 1: glad we missed a couple of times earlier this week
Speaker 1: because I got to hear the episode with Professor schufton today,
Speaker 1: so that added to my list. Can you first tell
Speaker 1: people about the Patreon community and why they want to
Speaker 1: be a part of it?
Speaker 7: Yeah, thanks you, I appreciate it very much. We have
Speaker 7: a podcast that's trying to teach this region, trying to
Speaker 7: teach the history of the region of Israelis and Palestinians,
Speaker 7: of the big ideas that drive the Iranian regime. For example,
Speaker 7: it's not just a bunch of crazy people. They're big
Speaker 7: and profound and serious ideas, and they're generations old. And
Speaker 7: when you really understand that, you begin to be able
Speaker 7: to really understand policy better, why they respond.
Speaker 5: The way they respond, why they can take.
Speaker 7: Catastrophic levels of damage and still hold out. Right, that
Speaker 7: was an episode I did before the war began. The
Speaker 7: bombs are are not going to fellow this regime, and
Speaker 7: if you understand why, you also begin to understand what
Speaker 7: will fill this regime, what kinds of narratives, what kinds
Speaker 7: of strategies will So that's what it's about. And the
Speaker 7: Patreon community was just a way to keep the lights on,
Speaker 7: you know. It's a way to pay five dollars a
Speaker 7: month and help us fund this thing. We are five
Speaker 7: salaries at this point. We try and have fact checkers
Speaker 7: and things like that, and it turned into a real community.
Speaker 7: There are forums there, people are discussing, people are sharing
Speaker 7: studies they pull from all over the internet, and I
Speaker 7: have learned a lot and people ask questions that then
Speaker 7: guide our future episodes.
Speaker 5: So it's a new world.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 7: I grew up in print journalism and this is a
Speaker 7: whole new world, and it's kind of wonderful.
Speaker 1: It is kind of wonderful, especially if you have a
Speaker 1: war going on and run up to a war and
Speaker 1: it will at war for two and a half years.
Speaker 1: The United States has been at war for one day
Speaker 1: and then now we're in day twenty six. Let me
Speaker 1: begin with the big broad question, how do you assess
Speaker 1: the war that began on ten to seven? How is
Speaker 1: that war going? That means all of it?
Speaker 7: On ten seven, Israel went to war against an idea,
Speaker 7: not against a specific militia, even though that specific militia
Speaker 7: is absolutely our enemy. It wants to murder my children,
Speaker 7: it says so every day. You have to be a
Speaker 7: very particular kind of Western ideologue not to hear it
Speaker 7: when it's their fundamental idea.
Speaker 5: We certainly went to war with Kamas, but.
Speaker 3: We looked around them.
Speaker 7: We said, wait a second, how could Kamas want this
Speaker 7: war in Gonza? What is the meaning of these tunnels?
Speaker 7: This the biggest tunnel system in the history of war,
Speaker 7: I mean, just the most comprehensive system that the only
Speaker 7: the means that the only way to get to Kamas
Speaker 7: is to go through Palestinian cities, is to blow up
Speaker 7: entire regions in order to blow up what is, by
Speaker 7: far I mean fivefold the next biggest military tunnel system.
Speaker 7: It's the biggest thing Palestinians have ever built. And Hamas
Speaker 7: spent Gaza's entire economy for fifteen years on building it.
Speaker 7: And so this is the war, this war, this way
Speaker 7: that Gaza looks, This was what Kamas planned, This was
Speaker 7: what it would take to get Kamas out of those tunnels,
Speaker 7: and it wasn't enough to get Ramas out of those tunnels.
Speaker 5: And critiques are all all you want.
Speaker 7: I think it's really important to critique wars. And this
Speaker 7: was a war food in an urban environment with civilian
Speaker 7: dead in the many thousands, So this is not But
Speaker 7: my point is a strategic tactical on how will Tramas
Speaker 7: possibly want plan build a war in which the only
Speaker 7: possibility for the enemy coming for you? After you commit
Speaker 7: a massacre like that and announced many times since October seven,
Speaker 7: then you will commit it again and again and will
Speaker 7: never not commit it.
Speaker 5: But the enemy is going to come for you.
Speaker 7: And then you build this tunnel system. And then in
Speaker 7: two and a half years of war, after building what
Speaker 7: is basically the most common brandsive bomb shelter system in
Speaker 7: the history of war, not letting a single gusen child
Speaker 7: into it for two and a half years, what is that?
Speaker 7: How do you understand these things? Assume that Kamas isn't
Speaker 7: stupid or crazy. Assume that it's normative. Real thoughtful human
Speaker 7: beings live in a certain world and are responding to
Speaker 7: how they see the world. And it turns out that
Speaker 7: the idea driving Khamas.
Speaker 5: Is this particular idea.
Speaker 3: It's called in Arabic the mukalama.
Speaker 7: It translates into resistance in English, but that doesn't describe
Speaker 7: what the word means. What the word means in Arabic
Speaker 7: is something much much bigger. It's a kind of mass
Speaker 7: martyrdom ideology in which Muslim thinkers, over the last century
Speaker 7: and a half I've tried to explain why Islam is
Speaker 7: so far behind the West. And one of the streams
Speaker 7: that come out of this conversation between theologians and political
Speaker 7: leaders has been this stream called the Muslim brothers, or
Speaker 7: the Solophists, or the basically Jihadi radicals, however you call them.
Speaker 7: Is this stream that says, we are very weak, but
Speaker 7: our weakness is a kind kind of purity. The Westerners
Speaker 7: are very powerful, but that makes them also arrogant. The
Speaker 7: we can humble or closer to God by definition, and
Speaker 7: so God will intercede on our behalf. How do we
Speaker 7: get God to intercede on our behalf in the great
Speaker 7: civilization of war against the arrogant, powerful West. Martyrdom, sacrifice,
Speaker 7: mass martyrdom, and sacrifice that demonstrates our faith, that brings
Speaker 7: God into history in intertwo intervene and allows us to
Speaker 7: defeat the great powers of the West. This is the
Speaker 7: animating idea behind the Iranian regime. Pomani, the founder of
Speaker 7: this regime, talked about the Musta the fiend, the humble,
Speaker 7: defeating the Musta Kamilian, the powerful, the arrogant, and explicitly
Speaker 7: explained that martyrdom was the path that closes that gap
Speaker 7: between weak and powerful. It's a way of thinking about
Speaker 7: the world and instead of looking at the West as
Speaker 7: a kind of successful best practice right democracies, it turns
Speaker 7: out build better economies, stronger political systems, more stability. When
Speaker 7: you're switching out your leader every years, you tend to
Speaker 7: be a more stable political system than when you're just
Speaker 7: a bunch of tyrants who inherit from each other all
Speaker 7: of these best practices the West brought. Instead of that
Speaker 7: being the secret to the West's power and success and
Speaker 7: scientific advancement, it's a way of saying, actually, none of
Speaker 7: that is true. All we're all living through a kind
Speaker 7: of mystical religious situation. And if we just are willing
Speaker 7: to die enough and to have our people die enough,
Speaker 7: and that's how you, then we win, and that's how
Speaker 7: you and the victory is a religious victory, and that's
Speaker 7: how you produce a ramas that plans the destruction of
Speaker 7: Gaza as its foundational strategy and force multiplier. And we
Speaker 7: looked around the region and that on October eighth and
Speaker 7: we said, well, that's Risbalah Krasbela is absolutely willing to
Speaker 7: have leban Un destroyed in the Great War to defeat
Speaker 7: the arrogant Israeli power Western power, which is how they
Speaker 7: frame it, and that's Iran. Iran talks about us as
Speaker 7: the little Satan, and America is the big Satan. It's
Speaker 7: not that it hates America because America supports Israel. It
Speaker 7: hates Israel because it sees Israel.
Speaker 5: As part of America. I know there's America is the
Speaker 5: thing it hates most and first.
Speaker 3: And most profoundly.
Speaker 5: And if people want to understand why, you.
Speaker 7: Have to go to Ali Shariati.
Speaker 5: That's the name to google, and.
Speaker 7: You will discover a kind of Marxist theoretician who melded
Speaker 7: Shia eschatology with Marxist ideas in the nineteen sixties and
Speaker 7: seventies and was Folmani's great teacher on these issues. And
Speaker 7: so they see us as that and they're coming for us,
Speaker 7: and they're undeterrible because they believe that martyrdom is strength,
Speaker 7: and if you have an enemy that is literally willing
Speaker 7: to burn their own society to the ground on the
Speaker 7: altar of the destruction of you, because they believe God
Speaker 7: has decreed it. There's no deterrence, it's literally undeterable, and
Speaker 7: there's no peace and there's no compromise.
Speaker 5: You actually have to defeat this enemy, the Nazis.
Speaker 1: And have to be defeated. Now, for twenty years, maybe seventeen,
Speaker 1: I've been telling people they need to read Lawrence Writes
Speaker 1: The Looming Tower to understand Sunni extremism and Katube and
Speaker 1: the Muslim Brotherhood. After you did episode ninety three, which
Speaker 1: is your two and a half hour extravaganza on resistance
Speaker 1: theology on the Shia side, then you followed it up
Speaker 1: with episode ninety nine, which is the one hour version.
Speaker 1: I went and found a book entitled Iran's Grand Strategy
Speaker 1: of Political History by Valley Nasser, who's at Johns Hopkins
Speaker 1: School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, and it's
Speaker 1: really good, and it's sort of a slower version for
Speaker 1: readers or listeners of what ninety three and ninety nine do,
Speaker 1: but I was able to understand it. Are you familiar
Speaker 1: with that book?
Speaker 3: I haven't read it. I know of its existence. I
Speaker 3: really ought to read it.
Speaker 1: It makes the same point, so you do about maybe
Speaker 1: in a little less judgmental, a little more academic approach,
Speaker 1: but yours is more entertaining, and it made this a
Speaker 1: lot more understandable when you have we have two enemies
Speaker 1: Sunny fundamentalism, Wahabist extremes, a mal Kaita and the Iranian regime,
Speaker 1: and they sometimes work together. And then you get a Asarkali
Speaker 1: who will sometimes try and just go right after the
Speaker 1: Shia throat. There is no alternative except to destroy the
Speaker 1: Iranian regime. That's what John Fetterman said yesterday. Is there
Speaker 1: an alternative other than destroying the Iranian regime?
Speaker 7: The idea has to die, it doesn't you know if
Speaker 7: you can't literally destroy the regime, Because if I'm saying,
Speaker 7: because for forty seven years, this regime has literally succeeded
Speaker 7: at nothing, built, nothing developed, nothing driven one of the
Speaker 7: wealthiest countries in the world naturally in terms of both
Speaker 7: human intelligence and in terms of hydrocarbon reserves, has driven
Speaker 7: its economy.
Speaker 5: Into the ground.
Speaker 7: So this is a regime that has done nothing but
Speaker 7: destroy every part of Iranian society. That could possibly have
Speaker 7: built out any kind of power center to.
Speaker 3: Oppose the regime.
Speaker 7: There's simply no one organized any on an Iranian society.
Speaker 7: The Iranians made sure of it. Who could resist, who
Speaker 7: could organize against this regime. So maybe the regime can't fall.
Speaker 7: But we don't actually need the institutions to fall. What
Speaker 7: we need is the idea to die, the idea that
Speaker 7: says we must destroy Israel on the path to destroying
Speaker 7: America in all of the arrogant West in order for
Speaker 7: Islam to be redeemed. And along the way, it's okay
Speaker 7: if the entire Iranian people chokes to death on our
Speaker 7: tyranny and on our incompetence, that.
Speaker 5: Idea, and we found some prospects of the military of.
Speaker 1: The wrong, but pause for a moment. Of that idea
Speaker 1: has to die. We'll come back. I don't know what
Speaker 1: happened when the music came up. You got modeled there,
Speaker 1: But we'll come back and fix that. Stay tuned in America.
Speaker 1: I'm here Hewett. You're watching the Here Hewitt Show on
Speaker 1: the Fail New Channel. Welcome back to America. My guess
Speaker 1: is a vive Rettick Gore. He is the host of
Speaker 1: Ask evive anything. It's also the Middle East. Corresponding for
Speaker 1: the Free Press. Follow him on ex Ataviv, redig Gore
Speaker 1: and join his patroon. You'll think that's the best. And
Speaker 1: five dollars a month you spent Haviva before he went
Speaker 1: to break. You said the idea has to die. I
Speaker 1: hope it does. But in the meantime there are a
Speaker 1: two front war going on. The latest battle ten seven
Speaker 1: led to a battle in Gaza. There was a battle
Speaker 1: in Lebanon and Hesba Lah. Now there's a battle over
Speaker 1: the skies of Iran and there's a battle in southern Lebanon.
Speaker 1: How do you assess those two battles? Just like World
Speaker 1: War Two had many fronts and many battles. Some were
Speaker 1: terrible Tarawa, some were the Marianas Turkey shoot, others were
Speaker 1: really risky Normandy. We've got two right now, Israel in
Speaker 1: southern Lebanon, and Israel and American maybe the UAE and
Speaker 1: maybe Saudi Arabia joining in over the skies of Iran.
Speaker 1: How do you assess both of those battles and their
Speaker 1: immediate objectives not against the idea but against the regime's power.
Speaker 7: If you understand this war as a war against an
Speaker 7: ideological front, it's going astonishingly well. If you want to
Speaker 7: pick apart every single individual battle, it's going fairly astonishingly
Speaker 7: well in military terms. I don't know about political terms.
Speaker 7: Israel certainly hated among many parts of the world right now.
Speaker 7: Some of that is propaganda. Some of that is that
Speaker 7: there is this terrible war in Gaza, but you know,
Speaker 7: there was a worst war going on in Sudan nobody
Speaker 7: talked about or saw. There's a lot of discourse, a
Speaker 7: lot of propaganda. The Israelis and the Palestinians and the
Speaker 7: Iranians are symbols to a whole lot.
Speaker 3: Of ideologues all over the world.
Speaker 7: Israel certainly has a huge problem in terms of its
Speaker 7: public persona public image on the world stage. Militarily, it
Speaker 7: is a victory every step of the way. People will
Speaker 7: then argue, you can't kill an idea. People will then
Speaker 7: argue still there. People will argue, the Iranian regime hasn't
Speaker 7: fallen yet, it can still burn things to the ground
Speaker 7: on its way out. Maybe that means it can never
Speaker 7: be felt because nobody's willing to literally remove twenty percent
Speaker 7: of the oil supply for five years. Yeah, You could
Speaker 7: argue that, sure, but that would assume that Israel is
Speaker 7: thinking the way most Westerners think about this war, which
Speaker 7: is to say, we have a pinpoint problem, We're going
Speaker 7: to attack it with a pinpoint solution, and if it
Speaker 7: isn't all finished and within two weeks and we're all
Speaker 7: home drinking our eggnog, then then we've lost. That is
Speaker 7: not how the Israelis are thinking about it. The Israelis
Speaker 7: are thinking about this in Middle Eastern terms. The idea
Speaker 7: will come for us in one form or another, no
Speaker 7: matter what we do in any one arena.
Speaker 5: So it has to be.
Speaker 7: All the arenas, and the idea itself has to die.
Speaker 7: On October eighth, I went on a podcast and I
Speaker 7: was asked this question what happens now? And one of
Speaker 7: my main arguments was, this is not.
Speaker 3: Going to be about Goza.
Speaker 7: This is going to be the beginning of a war
Speaker 7: that must go to Fisbella and a war that must
Speaker 7: go to Iran, and it might take five years. And
Speaker 7: I got some emails of people telling me, what, you're silly,
Speaker 7: not even you're a warmonger, You're just that's a silly
Speaker 7: thing to say.
Speaker 3: Israel's not going to challenge Iran.
Speaker 7: Israel's not going to take on the costs the two
Speaker 7: hundred thousand missiles and rockets hitting Tel Aviv that would
Speaker 7: be involved in attacking Fisbellah. And here we are two
Speaker 7: and a half years later, and actually it is exactly
Speaker 7: what has happened.
Speaker 5: And so Israel is vastly.
Speaker 7: More powerful than it was two and a half years ago.
Speaker 7: Its enemies are vastly weaker than they were two and
Speaker 7: a half years ago. And that has to continue, and
Speaker 7: it may have to continue for years more until the
Speaker 7: idea no longer makes any sense. And Hugh, I'm sorry
Speaker 7: to go on like this. Can I just one last
Speaker 7: point about this. It's happened before, our experience of this
Speaker 7: has happened before. In the nineteen fifties and sixties. Israel,
Speaker 7: tiny little third world Israel that began its life rationing
Speaker 7: egg powder to children because they didn't have enough food
Speaker 7: to feed the children, tiny poor, impoverished Israel under a
Speaker 7: British and American arms embargo, faced Arab armies united behind
Speaker 7: this charismatic Nasser with brand new Soviet hardware coming at
Speaker 7: them to demolish and annihilate them. And this idea of
Speaker 7: pan Arabism that Naser was selling, that unified Egypt and Syria. Briefly,
Speaker 7: that brought up Jordanians, and then the Iraqis all to
Speaker 7: attack us, all it once again and again and again.
Speaker 7: This idea was basically the argument that if the Arabs
Speaker 7: lost in forty eight because they were disunited, if they
Speaker 7: unite and remember their strength and remember their unity, the
Speaker 7: Jews stand no chance. How did that pan Arabist idea die?
Speaker 7: We destroyed it in tank battles in the desert. So
Speaker 7: we've already been through this cycle and we have to
Speaker 7: go through it again. And by the way, if we
Speaker 7: can't kill this Mukawama idea, this terrorism self sacrificial mass
Speaker 7: martyrdom terrorism ideas, it already doesn't stop in the Middle East.
Speaker 7: It's going to be exported everywhere because it works. It
Speaker 7: had better not work, and we're going to make sure
Speaker 7: it doesn't work.
Speaker 1: Now. You already named the price, although I thank you,
Speaker 1: you priced it too high. You said the world has
Speaker 1: to get along without twenty percent of its oil supply
Speaker 1: for five years. In fact, substitutionary effect will take place.
Speaker 1: People will find alternative forms of energy. Shouty's already opened
Speaker 1: up their pipeline that they haven't used for years. You
Speaker 1: can build a pipeline from Saudi Arabia through Israel to
Speaker 1: the Mediterranean. It can. You can get the oil. It
Speaker 1: takes a year and a half to get the oil.
Speaker 1: And in the meantime, I think the world will produce more.
Speaker 1: America can produce more, and some costs will go. I
Speaker 1: think it's worth it whatever it takes, and I think
Speaker 1: Trump might think it's worth it. Do you think the
Speaker 1: Israeli Do you think UAE and Saudi Arabia have come
Speaker 1: around to the fact we cannot live across the Strait
Speaker 1: from this fanatical, medieval, theological, crazy regime.
Speaker 7: Before you know, from twenty fifteen to twenty twenty four,
Speaker 7: Iran took out something like twenty tankers in the Persian
Speaker 7: Golf and in the Tanker War, in the Irani Rock War,
Speaker 7: there were four years where hundreds of tankers in the
Speaker 7: Persian Golf were hit by this Ragis team.
Speaker 5: This idea that every time it's in danger.
Speaker 3: It shoots up the global oil supply. You want to
Speaker 3: live under that shadow.
Speaker 7: I'll say more than that, the energy prices can be
Speaker 7: spiked at Iran's will, because it can start blowing things up.
Speaker 7: That is its one strategy. By the way, has no strategy.
Speaker 7: It has no air force that can fly, it has
Speaker 7: no navy that can sail. All it has is the
Speaker 7: ability to blow up somebody else's tankers. A more productive
Speaker 7: society and government's tankers. That's not any word of bad
Speaker 7: word against Persians. The Persian people are amazing. This regime
Speaker 7: can only destroy and only ever has. But I'll say
Speaker 7: another thing. Iran sits on something like the third largest
Speaker 7: hydrocarbon reserve in the world. We keep talking about, well,
Speaker 7: what will happen to the cost of energy if Iran
Speaker 7: blows up tankers in the strait of promos. Why don't
Speaker 7: we have this conversation about what happens to the cost
Speaker 7: of energy if the Iranian oil and the Iranian gas
Speaker 7: enters the global market. Actually doesn't have sanctions on It
Speaker 7: isn't the plaything of grand empires. They're not trying to
Speaker 7: constantly demolish entire nations and the police. But this unbelievably
Speaker 7: vast oil reserve comes onto the market naturally and builds
Speaker 7: up Iran and makes everybody's oil much cheaper. On the
Speaker 7: other side of this regime lies a much, much lower
Speaker 7: price of oil for everybody. That's also part of this conversation.
Speaker 7: We can only see the bad side, there's also a
Speaker 7: good side, and it's massive. So you know, you want
Speaker 7: to live in the shadow of a bullied trying to
Speaker 7: get a nuke that has already done this again and
Speaker 7: again and again, go for it. I think that I
Speaker 7: can't afford to. It's told me this won't end until
Speaker 7: I'm dead. So here I am responding to somebody who
Speaker 7: told me I have nothing to lose. I submit that
Speaker 7: the world has vastly more to gain from this regime
Speaker 7: falling than they have to lose from this regime being
Speaker 7: in its death thrones.
Speaker 1: After they fired whatever they had at Diego Garcia. Everybody
Speaker 1: in Western Europe should have figured that out. When we
Speaker 1: come back, I'm going to ask again the follow up,
Speaker 1: does the golf get it? And in fact, if the
Speaker 1: Golf gets it, can the coalition do what has to
Speaker 1: be done? Because the Iranian people are done with this too.
Speaker 1: They have thirty five thousand of them murdered in January,
Speaker 1: and I have to think they're done with this too.
Speaker 1: So the idea might already be dead, but a zombie
Speaker 1: regime is a zombie regime. I'll be right back with
Speaker 1: Aviv ready Gore once again. You can foll him on
Speaker 1: exit and Viv Ready Gore. You can join his Patreon
Speaker 1: and you can read him at the Free Press where
Speaker 1: he's their Middle East correspondent station. Welcome back, America. You
Speaker 1: hewit with Aviv Reddy Gore. We're in week four of
Speaker 1: the war, Aviv, that is the war with Iran, that
Speaker 1: American's condent. We're going actually the thirtieth months of the war,
Speaker 1: which began on ten to seven. Do you think the
Speaker 1: world will wake up and do what has to be done?
Speaker 1: And by the way, you hew it, not anybody else.
Speaker 1: Nobody's told me that think you have to destroy the
Speaker 1: oil infrastructure of Iran. You have to impoverish the nation
Speaker 1: and impoverish the IRGC, because they just keep pulling old
Speaker 1: IRGC guys out of retirement to put him in charge
Speaker 1: of a regime. When Israel United States kills them, they've
Speaker 1: probably got a limited supply somewhere, but not for a
Speaker 1: long time, and they got to run out of hardliners.
Speaker 1: You fought in the Iraq Iran war for ten years,
Speaker 1: thirty five year years ago. They got a lot of
Speaker 1: those crazy people. So do you think the world's ready
Speaker 1: to do what has to be done, which is to
Speaker 1: blow up their ability to sustain their regime.
Speaker 7: I mean the Europeans, absolutely not. Europe has willfully made
Speaker 7: itself completely dependent on Russian energy and on Persian Gulf energy,
Speaker 7: something that is not true of the United States. And
Speaker 7: Europe has disarmed itself of militaries and the ability to
Speaker 7: project power. And Europe is now at the mercy of
Speaker 7: everyone else, of the whims of various Middle Eastern powers
Speaker 7: and the United States and everybody else. And so they're
Speaker 7: really very nervous and very angry and very upset. We're hearing,
Speaker 7: we're hearing interesting things from the Italian leadership, from the
Speaker 7: German leadership, and from the Japanese leadership. Ironically, eighty years
Speaker 7: ago the Axis powers and they get the great danger
Speaker 7: represented by the ideology that Iran leads and isn't this
Speaker 7: sole purveyor of leads in the Middle East, And they
Speaker 7: don't want this war to end with the regime intact.
Speaker 7: They might not have anything to contribute in terms of
Speaker 7: toppling it, but they certainly are on the side of
Speaker 7: the Gulf States. They're on the side of Israel in
Speaker 7: this war, even if some of them, like the Italians,
Speaker 7: don't say so. Ironically, it is the allies of Europe,
Speaker 7: the French, the British, who are utterly unwilling to see
Speaker 7: the actual challenge posed by these ideas and the destructiveness
Speaker 7: of them to Iran and to the region and to
Speaker 7: the oil infrastructure of the world and all of that.
Speaker 7: So I think the world understands. I'll put it really simple.
Speaker 7: If this regime survives this round of war.
Speaker 3: That is okay.
Speaker 5: That is okay.
Speaker 7: I was asked in the twelve day war in June
Speaker 7: this exact same question. You bombed them for twelve days,
Speaker 7: you killed a bunch of generals, and here they are
Speaker 7: still picking.
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a long war. This is not the
Speaker 5: kind of war.
Speaker 7: That is exactly catered to the schedule of your TikTok
Speaker 7: feed like. This is a long, serious confrontation between deep
Speaker 7: ideas and ways of life and ways of thinking about
Speaker 7: the world. And it will be decided in time. It
Speaker 7: will be decided in investment, in will, in a test
Speaker 7: of wills, and in sticking power.
Speaker 5: And that remains true.
Speaker 7: So we brought down this regime a few very large pegs,
Speaker 7: and the world might because of the energy prices pulled back.
Speaker 7: The United States might pull back. I don't ask Trump
Speaker 7: to lose the midterms for me. I don't think he's
Speaker 7: doing it for me. I think there are a thousand.
Speaker 7: But not living under the shadow of Iran's veto of
Speaker 7: shipping in the Strait of hor moves is reason enough
Speaker 7: to not have this regime rule for another twenty five
Speaker 7: years in that region. But nevertheless, he has given me
Speaker 7: this great gift. It's a great gift to me, even
Speaker 7: if it wasn't specifically meant for me, and I don't
Speaker 7: have the right to ask for more.
Speaker 5: But we will have another war. There's no other choice.
Speaker 7: Iran will not stop fighting, will not stop demolishing nations,
Speaker 7: will not stop expanding.
Speaker 1: Now, yesterday Israel called up four hundred thousand reservists. If
Speaker 1: I read my Israeli English line, which press correctly, what's
Speaker 1: that mean heavy, That's that's the whole shebang. That's everybody
Speaker 1: who can get called up.
Speaker 7: Basically, it's uh, it's flexibility for the army. It's flexibility
Speaker 7: for the army, for Lebanon, for a longer term fight
Speaker 7: with Iran. It is Israel signaling a willingness to keep
Speaker 7: going at a very strong level and to escalate. One
Speaker 7: of the things that Professor Schiftan talks about is this
Speaker 7: idea of escalation dominance. You face an enemy, and the
Speaker 7: enemy he wants to escalate until you bow out, and
Speaker 7: you want to escalate until they bow out. Well, whoever
Speaker 7: can escalate farthest wins, and so the ability to project
Speaker 7: the willingness to escalate is very much part of this
Speaker 7: more that's that's my sense of it. Four hundred thousand
Speaker 7: people were not called up. The army was given permission
Speaker 7: by the political echelon to begin to do that.
Speaker 5: In terms of.
Speaker 3: Logistics, which is which is mostly a signal.
Speaker 1: Okay, it does it? Do you think it signals that
Speaker 1: the Lebanon south of Latani is going to be occupied
Speaker 1: on a more or less permanent basis thirty seconds to
Speaker 1: the break.
Speaker 7: What we have heard from Israeli officials, it's a big
Speaker 7: question of how much of it is rhetoric and how
Speaker 7: much of it is actual policy. What we've heard from
Speaker 7: Israeli officials is we have to root out Chrisbelasbela.
Speaker 3: Remains a threat. We will root it out until it
Speaker 3: is dead.
Speaker 7: We can do this forever they claim they can, we
Speaker 7: can too, and we will hold south of the Litani
Speaker 7: until we have defeated them.
Speaker 3: Instead of Hasbela.
Speaker 7: Saying that about Israel back when Israel occupied southern Lebanon
Speaker 7: for eighteen years, like America's Afghanistan experience and then Israel left,
Speaker 7: now it's the opposite.
Speaker 5: Chasbelah will never not.
Speaker 7: Play the war against us, but we will hold that
Speaker 7: territory and hurt them until they are the ones wholieve.
Speaker 1: One more segment with a vive ready gourd, don't go
Speaker 1: anywhere in America. I'm Hugh Hewett. Welcome back in America. I'm
Speaker 1: Hugh Hewett. I want to thank you Vieve reddi Gore
Speaker 1: for a lot of time. I have a column coming
Speaker 1: out tomorrow. We have an ally in Israel that is
Speaker 1: really unique. We've never operated with an ally, even in
Speaker 1: World War Two, at this level of interoperability and command
Speaker 1: and control. So it's really an extraordinary point in military history.
Speaker 1: And not many Americans know much about what the Israelis
Speaker 1: think of their point of view. And I list a
Speaker 1: few people and my Fox News call them tomorrow, including
Speaker 1: a viv about whom Americans ought to be aware and
Speaker 1: follow so they know what our ally is doing now,
Speaker 1: our allies politics matter a lot. The Khaki election. I
Speaker 1: don't know if you remember in nineteen hundred the English
Speaker 1: thought they'd won the Second World War. They hadn't, but
Speaker 1: they thought they'd won. So I think Lord Salisbury called
Speaker 1: a snap election won more than four hundred seats. The
Speaker 1: poor Liberal Party got smashed. They were below two hundred
Speaker 1: seats because they have a really quick election in England.
Speaker 1: And you can do that when you think you've won
Speaker 1: a war. Can BB do that? I asked all this
Speaker 1: yesterday's no, no, no, it's going to be in October.
Speaker 1: What do you think.
Speaker 3: We're going to find out very soon?
Speaker 7: It depends on a very few people, and I don't
Speaker 7: like to predict what a very few people will do.
Speaker 3: It's easier to.
Speaker 7: Predict what one hundred million people will do. It's hard
Speaker 7: to predict what three people will do. The Knesset has
Speaker 7: to pass the budget by the end of the month,
Speaker 7: and they might pass an extension and give themselves a
Speaker 7: couple more weeks or something like that. But if they
Speaker 7: don't complete the budget process properly and all the different things,
Speaker 7: then the Kannesset is legally required to dissolve itself to
Speaker 7: snap elections, which happened ninety days later, so that would
Speaker 7: be July. If they do pass that budget, then the
Speaker 7: elections will be at their regularly scheduled time in October.
Speaker 7: What's fascinating about that is that this would be one
Speaker 7: of the more hated governments or more divisive governments.
Speaker 5: In the history of Israel, which.
Speaker 7: Is, by the way, not unexpected after October seven. And
Speaker 7: it's also a much more polarized time than it was
Speaker 7: in many periods in Israel's passed. So I'm not even
Speaker 7: accusing of being somehow beyond the pale of although.
Speaker 5: In some of the things they're doing, I'm extremely troubled.
Speaker 7: But it would be even though it's one of the
Speaker 7: least liked governments, and even though it hasn't actually won
Speaker 7: in any poll that I know of since it was
Speaker 7: voted in in December twenty twenty two, it will be
Speaker 7: the first Israeli government in history to last its full
Speaker 7: term if they managed to pass a state budget.
Speaker 5: Now, can they pass a state budget? I think so.
Speaker 7: I think so because the ultra Orthodox are getting a
Speaker 7: lot of what they want, mainly a ton of money.
Speaker 7: The religious Zionist factions of the government are getting a
Speaker 7: lot of what they want again, mainly a ton of money,
Speaker 7: and everyone is getting enough that you know they're going
Speaker 7: to stick with it. As we get closer to election day,
Speaker 7: by the way, the various different right wing factions are
Speaker 7: all going to need to try to cannibalize each other's
Speaker 7: voters because they have some overlapping constituencies. And that's a
Speaker 7: lot of the times leading up to Israeli elections, and
Speaker 7: this is true of many parliamentary systems where parties that
Speaker 7: are together in a coalition share many ias tend to
Speaker 7: then produce all kinds of artificial crises to have something
Speaker 7: to distinguish themselves to their bases as they enter the
Speaker 7: election season. So it's not a big question whether the
Speaker 7: election is in July or August or October, but those
Speaker 7: are the kinds of structural things that we have to
Speaker 7: watch for to know.
Speaker 1: It's the last question, and you've got three or four
Speaker 1: minutes on this one, so take your time. Natanyao has
Speaker 1: done a brilliant job in waging this long war. He
Speaker 1: got caught off by surprise, and he was wrong about
Speaker 1: a moss but he's done a great job waging this war,
Speaker 1: and he's got President Trump working with him. We're waging
Speaker 1: this war, and finally we've come to grips for the
Speaker 1: Iran over those guys that were run Finally. I'm seventy
Speaker 1: years old. I've been waiting for this for a long time.
Speaker 1: I saw Ron fall into chaos on the couch with
Speaker 1: Richard Nixon and Zan Clementi as a writing member's staff
Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy eight, seventy nine and eighty, so I
Speaker 1: remember it very well. Do you think that matters to
Speaker 1: the average ars Israeli or are they just as likely
Speaker 1: to do what the English did in nineteen forty five
Speaker 1: and throw Churchill out after he was the only man
Speaker 1: who could have beaten the Nazis and dead, and nevertheless
Speaker 1: they threw him out because they were the English and
Speaker 1: they were tired of him.
Speaker 7: I have to tell you a lot of Israelis who
Speaker 7: really appreciate it too on the war think that he
Speaker 7: has hurt them, betrayed them, and led them in bad
Speaker 7: directions on a host of domestic issues that have no
Speaker 7: saliens or residents that really are understood outside of Israel.
Speaker 7: For obvious reasons, how much does anyone else around the
Speaker 7: world understand America's healthcare debate?
Speaker 5: Right, but elections can be about health and unemployment and.
Speaker 7: Not about the big thing that the world cares about,
Speaker 7: like the Rock War twenty five years ago or whatever.
Speaker 7: So the answer, as the far as the polls tell us,
Speaker 7: is how does not his current coalition does not at
Speaker 7: this moment have a majority, It does not have a
Speaker 7: parliamentary victory, and it.
Speaker 5: Hasn't any poll.
Speaker 7: Now, somebody will find me one poll by right wing polster.
Speaker 7: I'll take that back. I'm not saying there literally isn't one,
Speaker 7: but I follow the polls very closely, and certainly none
Speaker 7: of the mainstream ones over time. Does that mean that
Speaker 7: the opposition has a victory. We don't see a clear path.
Speaker 7: We're talking about an election between you know, sixteen parties,
Speaker 7: of which eleven will make it in roughly give or take.
Speaker 5: That's how it works.
Speaker 7: So it's always a kind of chaos math to try
Speaker 7: and figure out that path. But a lot a lot
Speaker 7: of Israelis say things like, and it's now the.
Speaker 3: Trigger on Iran.
Speaker 5: That was terrifying, that was scary, that took guts.
Speaker 7: We didn't know that Iran would not respond competently if
Speaker 7: it had responded much war come.
Speaker 1: You didn't was, yeah, you didn't know that.
Speaker 7: It could have been two thousand ballistic misses on Tel Aviv.
Speaker 7: It could Tel Aviv could have been on fire. And
Speaker 7: he knew the potential cost. He also knows the cost
Speaker 7: of letting Iran continue to develop, letting this regime produce
Speaker 7: the capabilities it wants to produce. The Chinese where literally
Speaker 7: they signed in agreement a month before the war to
Speaker 7: hand Iran it's supersonic missiles. You know what that would
Speaker 7: have done to the strait of Hormones. An American aircraft
Speaker 7: carrier could have been taken easily by an Iranian gunboat.
Speaker 7: I mean, we're talking about an upgrading of their capabilities
Speaker 7: that we have stopped. And so Nittagnell pulled the trigger
Speaker 7: and made that absolutely terrifying decision on every domestic policy
Speaker 7: issue that I care about, that my kids' lives depend
Speaker 7: on on this massive welfare state over in the ultra
Speaker 7: Orthodox community that is larger, they get more per capita,
Speaker 7: and they get incentivized not to work in a vast scale,
Speaker 7: something like fifty percent of their men don't work at all,
Speaker 7: and the ones who do work tend to be low
Speaker 7: earners because their education system is a separate education system
Speaker 7: that doesn't teach math in English after fourth grade.
Speaker 5: Now, Israel is not a hydrocarbon power.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it has some natural gas reserves right now, but
Speaker 7: not compared to Middle Eastern levels.
Speaker 5: And that's very recent.
Speaker 7: All we have built we have built with human talent.
Speaker 7: We have built with the simple fact that the Israel
Speaker 7: invests more in R and D than any other nation
Speaker 7: on Earth per capita. It is the number one on earth.
Speaker 7: Is That is what we are. That is our strength,
Speaker 7: that is our power. Now, I'm a big fan of
Speaker 7: religious education. I'm the son of a rabbi. I have
Speaker 7: podcast episodes about holidays and diving into the Jewish religious bookshelf.
Speaker 5: I'm a huge fan of religion.
Speaker 3: Ditto Christianity.
Speaker 5: I am a big thing.
Speaker 7: You've got to work that doesn't need to get them
Speaker 7: not working, and movie tolate it. And if he has
Speaker 7: expanded that there was a law passed this week this
Speaker 7: week by this kind asset, when everybody else is hunkering
Speaker 7: down in bomb shelters, when people are losing jobs because
Speaker 7: businesses are closed, this kind of set passed. The law
Speaker 7: that expands the powers is a redemicult course.
Speaker 1: I get it. Yeah, good on the war, bad on
Speaker 1: everything else. Have they writing Door, I will check back
Speaker 1: with you in a few weeks. I greatly appreciate your
Speaker 1: time today, very illuminating as always Episode ninety nine Friends.
Speaker 1: I asked to be of anything to me too,