WEBVTT - Six States, One Story: The Polls Got It Wrong Again 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.720 Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 Hillsdale Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hilldale dialogues, all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at q for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:19.480 iTunes and Hilldale and even Grace America and you hew it. 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:22.200 On this Wednesday, at the day after an election. There's 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:24.320 a lot to talk about, and I will be talking 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:26.840 about it with Brett Bair, I'll be talking about with 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.600 Comfortably Smugg of the Ruthless Podcast. I'll be talking about 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:32.720 it with Noah Rothman as well. The first of the 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:36.840 bottom line, Peggy Flannagan is a lunatic from Minnesota, their 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:40.960 lieutenant governor, deeply involved in the non oversight that allowed 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:43.400 the fraud to app in Minnesota. She won the nomination 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:47.000 over a moderate Democrat, is not really a moderate. Congress 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:49.520 Woman Craig is a lefty, but she's not crazy lefty, 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:53.120 and Peggy Flannigan is. And Peggy Flannigan is their nominee 0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:55.920 going to take on Michelle Tafoya. You've heard on this show. 0:00:56.600 --> 0:01:00.400 Michelle won a spirited race with an absolute majority fifty 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:04.040 against some very strong candidates like my friend Tom Wheeler 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:06.920 and others, and so Michelle de Foya will be formidable. 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:10.640 Is a question about whether or not Minnesota wants to 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:13.640 actually have a reasonable person in the United States Senate. 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:15.720 They've gone from al frank And to Tina Smith and 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:18.240 now they they're gonna send Peggy flan again. They keep 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:21.000 going from left to left to left. I don't know. 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:23.920 We will wait and see if they elect Peggy flan again. 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.120 Maybe it's time to give Minnesota to Canada and swap 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:29.279 it out for Alberta. I'll bring that up with Smug 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.360 as well, coming up a little bit later. If you're 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:35.959 watching on the Sale News channel, this is when Peggy 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:42.040 Flanagan went full coseplay with the Muslim community in Minneapolis. 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:48.720 And I understand devoted Muslims dressing in accordance with their 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:53.960 religious observance. I don't understand non Muslims dressing up as Muslims. 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:58.840 And it's sort of like you do wear green right 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:02.680 on Saint Patrick's Day, but it's not this. If you're 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:04.720 watching on the sam News channel, I don't know what 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:08.600 you call that. It's not a Burka. It's a full 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:14.320 covering associated with people from Somalia, some Malli Americans, and 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:18.600 I just think that's a little too identity politics for me. 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:22.240 But we'll see what they have to say. The biggest 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:27.000 story though, not Minnesota, not even Wisconsin, where Francesca Hong 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:29.959 blew what the pollsters said was a twenty plus point 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:34.359 lead a week ago and lost to David Crowley by 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:36.480 four thousand votes out of seven or ninety one thousand 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:39.320 votes cast, less than a half percent. The story there 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:42.280 is how did the polls get it that wrong? Including 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:44.400 the Marquette poll. I'll talk about that a little bit 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:47.200 later with John Roberts of Fox News. I was talking 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:49.280 with him about it today. It is the gold standard. 0:02:49.360 --> 0:02:51.760 John knows that. I know that. Marquette's one of those 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:55.800 that you just say, oh, that's I believe it. It's broken. 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:58.040 Polling is absolutely broken. The question is going to be, 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:00.799 why are we going to use it anymore? Why is 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:04.480 anyone reporting on what pulling is right now? In Georgia, 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:08.840 the most recent poll has John oss Off ahead of 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:13.720 Mike Collins by nine points ar P Pole. In North Carolina, 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.560 the most recent poll has Roy Cooper seven points out 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:19.720 of Mike Watley, Well, given that they missed by ten 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:27.359 or fifteen in Michigan and twenty in Wisconsin last night, 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.239 why in the world do we believe these numbers? And 0:03:30.360 --> 0:03:36.440 Steve Kornaki, estimable and serious man on MS NOW last night, 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:39.520 trying to explain the pulling cut number five. 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:44.280 Yeah, yeah, I. 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:49.280 He's here's the thing. 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:58.600 A glitch, Yeah, Steve. 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:05.080 Steve's thinking, here's let's let's let's look at it this way. 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:11.560 We're kind of indefinitely waiting for them to get their 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:16.480 act together here and get the sticks and bring them 0:04:16.520 --> 0:04:19.320 back and go on. And we've got folks here who 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:24.960 are working real late, and I don't think we want to, 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:34.520 you know, keep them here to this could go ninety minutes. 0:04:34.960 --> 0:04:37.000 And it's ninety minutes of me saying. 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:44.960 Have you heard of any other athletes running for Congress? 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:49.120 It's such a It's like we've I know, we've come 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:52.400 so far here. It's been four hours since polls closed. 0:04:52.960 --> 0:05:01.920 It's been unbelievably interesting and an intense a night here, 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:08.080 and and it really is coming down to this one giant, 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:10.839 you know, update in Milwaukee. 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:11.680 But man, they. 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:17.520 We we we we waited ninety minutes for them, they 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:20.680 did this whole procession and then they find out there's 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:25.160 nothing on the sticks and and yeah. 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:28.400 So it's just my way of saying that. 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.920 I'm just trying to say the audience here so abruptly 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:36.279 ending on them, just why we're doing this, because they've 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:40.160 the audience has been with us for for six hours 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:46.760 in some cases for this moment that didn't happen. And 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.840 and so folks, we're gonna I think we are gonna 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:52.800 wrap it here for the reasons we're saying here. Just 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:59.000 but I just I want you to know, I hate hate, 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.479 you know, doing this to you because it's we we 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:06.600 we we You've been I know you're here for results, 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:08.640 and we've come to the point where it's like one 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.560 thing away. I hope you understand that we just, you know, 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:14.719 we gotta let everyone here has got a you know, 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:20.800 has been here for a long time, and and I'm just. 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:21.240 Trying to. 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.680 They never killed time before, has he? They just never 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:30.680 done this. I've done this like a million times in 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:35.880 my life. Okay, I need this is very awkward. 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:40.760 So this is a okay, Okay, so folks, here's what's 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:44.240 happening there there. I'm I'm doing a this is sort 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:45.040 of a cut in thing. 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:45.440 I have to. 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:50.400 I'm they're gonna let me set this, so it's you. 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:53.599 Sorry, yeah, the producer. 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:58.240 But listen, do we want to do Wisconsin results in 0:06:58.279 --> 0:06:59.680 these updates? 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:01.839 Or how do we want to parties out? 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:08.000 They're like producing it live. They've got someone in Steve's here. 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:12.360 I guess they fired every producers. Now, okay, so we're 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:13.880 doing job over the thing. 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:14.480 We're gonna fit. 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:16.520 We're gonna tape here that they're going to insert into 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:19.160 news now. So if you, if you'd like, you can 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:20.320 watch us put this together. 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:23.240 Yeah, we're gonna do that. No, we're not gonna watch. 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:29.560 It's a flabbergasted Steve Karnaki. It's very good. Always welcome 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:32.720 on the Hue Huge Show. But I've been at thirty 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:38.080 Rock till dawn right twenty sixteen after the Trump upset, 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:40.040 when it was like night of the Living Dead there, 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:42.240 and I was the only guy in the building that 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:46.400 voted for Trump. And uh, I was sitting by myself 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:48.119 in a corner. Andy Lack, who was then the president 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:49.680 of NBC News, you might want to go in this 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:53.160 other room, and I did, But I know what all 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:55.800 night elections are like we joyed, and I did that 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:59.080 in Dallas in two thousand and four. They're much more 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:02.800 fun then say twenty twelve, when you think Mitt Romney's 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:04.440 going to win and he loses in an hour. Yeah, 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:07.360 you remember this studio in twenty twelve. Yeah, I mean 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:10.480 it's just it's there are times where you got to fill, 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:12.640 and there are times where you don't have to fill 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:14.240 at all because it's over and you can go home. 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:16.560 And that was a time when you got to fill. 0:08:16.600 --> 0:08:18.600 And what you're doing is you say, Okay, let's pretend 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:22.840 that somebody has not been awake and therefore they're just 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:24.680 coming in. So I'm going to start over and I'm 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:27.000 going to fill for the next ten minutes by repeating 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:29.760 everything I've set up until this point. And I have 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:33.160 a lot of experience in this department. When Arnold Schwarzenegger 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:39.240 was running in the recallection, he asked me. I said, 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:41.840 I would be happy to mc a rally for him 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:46.640 at the Orange County Fairground. And the terminator was forty 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:52.000 five minutes late after the program called on him to 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:55.920 be forty five minutes late, and so I was up there. 0:08:56.640 --> 0:08:59.680 I was calling everybody out of the crowd. If I 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:03.160 wreck he ignized anyone like the third city council member 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:06.680 from Laguna Neguel, come on up and tell us what 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:09.440 you It was one of those situations where you just 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:13.280 got to fill And I feel awful for Steve Karnaki 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:15.520 because he had to have a producer and his ear 0:09:15.600 --> 0:09:21.640 giving him something anything. Talk about Minnesota, talk about South Carolina, 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:24.240 talk about New Hampshire's gonna vote on September third, And 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:25.800 what are we gonna do about the pulling up there? 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:28.400 If this is bad there? And what are we I 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:33.600 can't believe that he was so absolutely dumbfounded by the 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.640 lack of data, because Steve's a machine, He's the best 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:40.280 in the business. I just feel bad for him. Meanwhile, 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:44.000 Hassan Piker on his podcast was feeling sad for Francesca. Huh. 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:44.960 Cut number two. 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:49.559 Will be able to lean into their victories, so it'll 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:53.880 be less difficult, It'll be easier to deliver our message. 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:57.480 It'll be more difficult though, because the establishment will not 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:01.840 underestimate us. They will continue to undermine us, but they 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.959 will not underestimate us, so. 0:10:06.440 --> 0:10:07.400 The knives will be out. 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:13.840 What what do you with the appeal of this fella. Really, 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:19.360 the establishment will not underestimists, they will undermine us. The 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:22.040 knives will be on. What does that even mean. That's 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:23.960 the dumbest thing. Because he says so many dumb things, 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:26.440 I can't say that's the dumbest thing he said. It's 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:30.000 like a therapy session with him. He's doing talk therapy 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:33.680 with himself into a microphone, and for whatever reason, seventy 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.079 five thousand people are watching him and they fanned for it. 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:38.240 I don't get it. Stay tuned in America. I'm cuture. 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:48.520 Welcome back, America. I'm cucuit. 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:49.240 No c. 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:52.559 Rothsman is the senior writer at National Review, author of 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:56.000 the book Blood and Progress. Noah, when I was a 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:58.080 lawyer in the White House long ago, you may not 0:10:58.200 --> 0:10:59.960 have been born. When I'm a lawyer in the White House, 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:03.800 we had a questionnaire Forrairie would be appointee to the 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:06.880 Reagan nomination? Who's interviewing? The last question of which was, 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:09.880 and may still be, is there anything in your background which, 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:12.400 should it be made public, would embarrass the president? I 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:15.680 think we now need an addendum. Have you ever criticized Thanksgiving? 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:17.760 Do you think that's now going to be early on 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:19.559 in the due diligence with candidates. 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:21.520 Yeah. 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:25.440 Absolutely, there should be a woke one checklist. Have you 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:30.400 ever criticized cultural appropriation? Do you think burritos are in 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:31.520 American food? 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:32.760 Yeah? 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:36.079 Do you have a problem with holidays, Thanksgiving, Christmas, Fourth 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:40.120 of July, Halloween, any of those apply? You should not 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:42.920 run on the Democratic ticket, and a healthy Democratic Party 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:47.000 would enforce that kind of thing, because it's objective is 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.400 to get people elected to high office. That's the only 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:52.439 point of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party to that. 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:58.640 Peggy Flanagan, we got Elsie in Michigan calling football an 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:02.040 area of toxic mask. We've got Grant Platner with a 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:05.280 Nazi tattoo. I mean, we've got a parade of horribles 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:07.600 this year. Do you think the Republicans are out of it? 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:11.400 Given the candidate quality on the Democrat side, they're not. 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:15.920 I mean, if twenty twenty two is a model Republicans, 0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.439 we should have benefited more from that environment, an anti Democratic, 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:23.200 anti Biden environment, but candidate quality put a ceiling on 0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:26.600 their performance and Democrats could experience the very same phenomenon today. 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:28.480 Back to Elsie, you had mentioned that you know they're 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:32.120 finding these old tweets which aren't especially old twenty three, 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:34.839 twenty four. You know, if you've undergone some kind of 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:37.440 a conversion, you should have a conversion narrative that you 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:39.280 can reach to and say why you don't believe the 0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:43.440 thing you believed two years ago. But he's exactly like 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:46.760 Francesca Hong in that regard the. 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:49.040 Senate. 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:52.720 Yeah, there's a new one cut number three abdu Alsai 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:54.520 for Noah. 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:58.280 Rockmand healthcare should be a choice made by a patient 0:12:58.960 --> 0:12:59.600 and their doctor. 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:01.400 That patient is under the AHV. 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:05.680 To eighteen the parents as well, right, and I believe 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:09.120 that Medicare for All should cover all healthcare, yeah, which 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:13.040 is defined by what a patient needs in accordance with 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:18.959 their doctor. So that includes reproductive rights right, that includes 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:20.760 gender affirming care. 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:24.640 What do you think, Noah, that going to be in 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:25.959 a couple of Mike Rogers ads. 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.160 That's going to be in a couple of Mike Rogers ads. 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:33.000 As well as Bernie Sanders, who had admitted in his 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:35.960 twenty twenty bill for Medicare for All that it consists 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.920 essentially of nationalizing the health insurance industry. Everybody loves the 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:43.040 idea of getting healthcare for everybody that's great, but they 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:46.199 don't want to lose their insurance. This is a primary 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:47.360 problem with Obamacare. 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:48.400 It was a big. 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.360 Selling point for Republicans who opposed that sort of thing. 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:54.080 And if you just were unconscious for Obamacare debates, maybe 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:58.520 you missed it. But Democratic political professionals remember the ordeal 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.280 they went through trying to sell that thing. It was 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.880 not fun. And that's just on the policy side of things. 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:07.600 You know, Lsieid's come out against as you said, you 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.000 know football, it's got a big problem with the toxic 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:13.400 masculinity in football. Not a huge fan of July fourth. 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:16.480 It's very Francesco Hongi ish, and he checks all the 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:20.320 boxes that a conventional far left liberal would have to 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.120 check in twenty twenty. And it was not a great 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.600 year for Democrats in twenty twenty, but the exception of 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:30.880 Joe Biden, who conspicuously distanced himself from all the revolutionary 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:33.760 progressivism that was overtaking the party at the time. So yeah, 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:35.560 they want to run that playbook again, they're going to 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:38.840 encounter what Abigail Spamberger said when she admonished all her 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.640 colleagues in the post election call in that year and said, 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.560 never say defund the police again. Never say the word 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:47.320 socialism again. If you do, we're going to experience exactly 0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:50.320 what we experienced this year, a very disappointing year, despite 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:55.520 the headwinds that Republicans were experiencing Democrats. 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.200 Two segments come back to polling in segment two. But 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.640 I got to ask you about a parents you're out 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.360 on CNN the other night. It reminded me of the 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:06.280 final scene of Godfather Won. You took care of all 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:10.200 family business around the table. I just wonder when you 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:14.120 went to break, did people slump over in their chairs? 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:14.800 What happened? 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:16.120 No? 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:19.040 You know, I managed to get all ninety seconds of 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.920 that out uninterrupted, which which was unique and gratifying for me. 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:24.920 It's a funny thing about that show, and the cameras 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.400 go off. You know, we're not talking about what we 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:29.800 just talked about. We're not rehearsing the fight that we 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.640 just had. Everybody's just kind of cordial. But yeah, it 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.800 was a it was a fun segment. And if nobody 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:37.640 knows what you're talking about. I was referring to LSA 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.720 even just trying to elaborate on all the deficits that 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:42.680 he has he brings with him. As a candidate, and 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:44.560 I managed to get them all out ended up being 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:45.200 a lot. 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:47.640 Well, I thought, and tell me if I'm wrong, I 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.040 know you're a theater kid, or you admit to being 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:52.280 a theater kid on National Review and you've got a 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:54.040 theater kid that was. 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.760 Deliberate the theater scholarship to undergrad. 0:15:56.360 --> 0:16:00.800 Q okay, So you delivered that with pan, and I 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:03.760 think they were a little bit stunned at the fact 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:06.240 you didn't have to take a breath as you just 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:10.120 moved around the table, taking the premise after premise out 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:13.080 and chopping it up into firewood and leaving it splintered 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:16.560 around and they were stunned. Has that ever happened before? 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:18.280 It has? 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:21.480 But I'll tell you why, only because on MSNBC and 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:25.960 now CNN, I'm trained to get as much of a 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:30.560 thought out with as few breaks as possible, because if 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:33.080 you take a breath, that's the last thing you're going 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:35.720 to say, will there will be interjections, So you really 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:38.480 just have to hit beat, beat, beat as fast as 0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:41.360 you possibly can in order and be as coherent as possible. 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:45.720 It requires some training, But I blame my liberal colleagues 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:48.400 for forcing me to figure that one out because it 0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:49.440 was a matter of necessity. 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:53.680 It was a masterpiece, and I just thought they were 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:57.480 a little bit stunned by the fact you dove in 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:02.320 to Abby's objection, seize it by the throat and said, yes, 0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:05.879 we're going to do exactly that and here's why, and 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:08.960 did not let go of the throat of the premise 0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:12.399 until after your ninety seconds were done. And I would 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.240 use that in a media training class. Actually, it's so 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:20.879 rare that anyone gets even our wonderful friend Scott. Scott 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:23.080 gets shut down a lot. Are they treating you nicely 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:24.320 because you're relatively new? 0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:28.320 Well, they always treat me nicely, and they interrupt very frequently. 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:30.840 It was a rare occurrence that I'd managed to get 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.440 that thought out and uninterrupted. It's just kind of part 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:36.240 and parcel for that set, which I don't blie. It's 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:38.920 just the nature of that show and very many other 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:42.119 political chat shows, especially those with a left wing host. 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.680 You know, they challenged the premises of conservatives. They don't 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:47.040 accept the premises of conservatives. I'm used to it, which 0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.439 is why you have to be as articulate as you 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:53.359 possibly can be, which with as much alacrity as you 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.440 can summon because you only have so much runway. 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:58.600 And get up momentum. This is a little bit of 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:00.520 a class for people out there who in speech and 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.679 debate get up momentum, take a deep breath, and and 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:10.560 keep running the ball forward until somebody tackles you. Fair summary, Yeah, 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:11.040 fair enough. 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:12.680 I actually managed to put a period on that thought, 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:14.960 so I didn't need to be tackled to the ground, fortunately, 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.639 But sometimes you do. Sometimes you there's other thoughts in 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:19.520 there that you don't have the opportunity. 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:19.440 To get out. 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:21.320 But this time, Yeah, that was a that was a 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:22.399 good solid clip. 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:24.200 Enjoyed it? 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:24.760 Thank you? 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:26.760 Oh I did? I thought I watched it? Try did 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:30.080 they did they put rap in your ear? There's some 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:34.040 some mysterious voice say rap ever to you on CNN. No. 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:37.240 I get that from Fox often and it's very dis oorienting, 0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:38.680 But on CNN, no, I do not. 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:47.879 I'd learn they don't need to bother the guests if 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:48.560 you if you take. 0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:50.080 A morning Joe used to do that to me. 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:52.199 They would say listen, we're coming to you next, and 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:55.640 that sort of thing, which is usually quite helpful. But wrap, Yeah, 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:57.960 that doesn't happen on CNN, just because I don't control 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.760 the microphone that they probably give that those directions to Abby. 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:01.840 But not me. 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:04.480 All right, it was I salute you. I'm going to 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:06.600 try and keep Noah over to talk about the big 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:09.760 question of the day. Why are we reading any polls? 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:12.960 Why are we taking any poles? Seriously, two weeks in 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:16.080 a row been off by double digits. Last night they 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.960 were off by twenty points. The Marquet poll, well, the 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:21.320 gold standard pole, like the des Moines registered poll that 0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:24.320 a Kamala winning. No one will be back if he's back, 0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:35.879 stay tuned, Welcome back America. I'm Hugh Hewitt No See Rothman, 0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:37.200 senior writer with the National Review. 0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:37.680 No. 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:41.880 I assume you are familiar with the Monty python bit. 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:46.480 This parrot is dead, are you? I am all right, 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:50.240 So the polling is dead. Try and tell me that 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:50.639 it's not. 0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:55.920 Well, here's the only thing you can say about polling, Hugh. 0:19:56.600 --> 0:20:00.200 It's all we've got. And that's not saying a lot, 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:07.520 but it's not nothing. Otherwise, prognostication is reduced to just 0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:12.200 expressions of opinion, a subjective exercise, which you know can 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.200 be valuable if you're talking to somebody with a lot 0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:16.399 of wisdom, has been around a long time, who has 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:20.520 been servying the political environment for decades. That can be valuable, 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:23.560 but otherwise it's our only instrument for measuring public opinion. 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:27.200 When it comes to primary races, polling has always been 0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:31.320 very bad. This year, it's exceptionally bad, but it's exceptionally 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:33.760 bad in a way that we're familiar with. What are 0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:36.600 these polls failing to capture so far? On the Democratic 0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:41.120 primary side, It's African American voters, it's working class voters. 0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:43.480 We've been dealing with this problem for a decade. Only 0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:46.440 the problem was beneficial to Donald Trump because Donald Trump 0:20:46.520 --> 0:20:48.320 was getting a lot of these votes that just weren't 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:50.960 being captured by pollsters. It's funny when you get older, 0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:54.480 as when I was young coming up, it was impossible 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:57.240 to get young people to respond to a poll. Young 0:20:57.280 --> 0:20:59.560 people were so difficult to pull, and that was a 0:20:59.640 --> 0:21:01.359 hidden source of democratic strength. 0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:02.200 They banked on it. 0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:04.879 Now it's impossible to not get them to respond to 0:21:04.880 --> 0:21:07.920 surveys because those surveys aren't necessarily conducted by landline. They're 0:21:08.000 --> 0:21:10.760 very rarely conducted by landline. So we've altered these methods 0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:13.160 to correct for one problem and created another along the way, 0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:14.680 and that's just how these sort of things work. 0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:19.640 My question whether or not we're capturing the question yet is. 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:24.840 Why are we using bad information that can influence the election, 0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:28.720 which I think it did in Michigan, may not have 0:21:28.840 --> 0:21:32.919 done obviously, did not do in Wisconsin, but could do 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:37.239 in North Carolina, in New Hampshire, in South Carolina. There 0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:39.600 are a lot of places where you just wonder if 0:21:39.600 --> 0:21:44.160 it's bad information in you're going to get bad election results. 0:21:44.359 --> 0:21:46.800 It does have an impact. It's not neutral. 0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:49.680 It did no it does have an impact, or it 0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:52.119