1 00:00:02,240 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: Are you struggling to keep up with what is happening 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 1: on the ground in Iran. One day we have President 3 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,959 Speaker 1: Trump coming out saying five days cease fire of all 4 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 1: bombing of infrastructure. 5 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 2: We've had good talks. Then we have the regime saying 6 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,080 Speaker 2: we haven't had any talks. Keep going. 7 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: We then have the head of Scentcom saying to the 8 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: people of Iran there will be a signal when you 9 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: hit the streets again. 10 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: It is confusing. There is so much happening. 11 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: My next guest is going to help us understand it all. 12 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 1: Benham Teleblu from the fd D. Let's go, Benham Tallablue. 13 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 1: Thank you so so much for joining us again. We 14 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: really appreciate having you on. 15 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:42,240 Speaker 3: Always a pleasure. Thanks for having me erin. 16 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,880 Speaker 2: We learned something new this week. 17 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: And when I say we, maybe not necessarily those who 18 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,840 Speaker 1: had already understood that terrorists lie, but maybe those who 19 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: didn't so much regarding ballistic missile capability of the Islamic 20 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: regime of Iran. How far they can actually go versus 21 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: how far they told us they could go. 22 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 2: How big a deal is this? 23 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,559 Speaker 3: You know, aarin The war is over three weeks now 24 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 3: in the Middle East, these Loma Republic is at war 25 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 3: not just with America and Israel, but with the Arab world, 26 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,759 Speaker 3: and it's officially expanded that to include having recently targeted 27 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 3: or attempt to target a UK overseas territory at the 28 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 3: island of Diego Garcia. And if you know anything about geography, 29 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 3: that is just about four thousand kilometers away from Iranian territory, 30 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 3: potentially even more if you're going to be firing a 31 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 3: ballistic missile at that site from inland. And for those 32 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 3: who have been following the Iran missile issue for over 33 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 3: a decade now, you've had military officials, you've had religious officials, 34 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,559 Speaker 3: you've had political officials. You've even had the former Supreme 35 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 3: leaders say oh no, no, that their ballistic missiles are 36 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 3: capped at two thousand kilometers. And I've seen this and 37 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 3: I have said, well, based on what they've been doing, 38 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 3: based on the fact that they have a parallel space program, 39 00:01:56,360 --> 00:02:00,559 Speaker 3: this two thousand kilometer cap is a political prohibition rather 40 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 3: than a technical prohibition, and just like a political promise 41 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 3: can easily be undone, particularly by the likes of this regime. 42 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 3: A political promise as it relates to their missile program 43 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 3: could easily be undone, and we just saw that over 44 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 3: the weekend with two ballistic missiles fire towards the island 45 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 3: of Dieo Garcia. There's still a debate right now in 46 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 3: the open source world what exact projectile that was. You 47 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 3: have some Israeli officials saying that it's a two stage 48 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 3: system coming from a potential space launch or satellite launch 49 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 3: vehicle that could be the pathway for a future run 50 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 3: in ICBM. Others are saying it's a modified version of 51 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 3: a North Korean system. But moral of the story is 52 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 3: that I have not been surprised by anything out of 53 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 3: the past three weeks of the Islamica public escalating. But 54 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 3: this strike, this is a game changer. 55 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 1: What it says you would hope to particularly the likes 56 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 1: of those in Europe starmer in the UK though I 57 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: hold out no hope for the vast majority of them. 58 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 2: That hauling is that they're not untouchable here. 59 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 1: This is not a far away war in the Middle 60 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: East that doesn't impact them. Does it change now their 61 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 1: involvement in this It's too late for them to help 62 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 1: win the war. But what do you think it does 63 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: to leaders who may have previously thought this is a 64 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: far away thing that we don't need to necessarily get 65 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: involved in. 66 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 3: Well, it absolutely needs to ring the alarm bell for 67 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 3: European leaders in Eastern Europe, Central Europe, as well as 68 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 3: in Western Europe, because if you flip that four thousand 69 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 3: kilometer rangeban, that means the Islamic Republic of Iran can 70 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 3: strike bases, US bases, NATO bases, other European military facilities 71 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 3: in Eastern, Central, and even Western Europe. So this should 72 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 3: be a major problem, and the Islamica public has really 73 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 3: used this as a threat for the past decade, if 74 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 3: not just a little bit more as a sort of 75 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 3: damical is that they wouldn't go over two thousand kilometers 76 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 3: unless Europe behaved badly. While Europe, as you know, unfortunately 77 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 3: has been pulling punches, you know, particularly during this war 78 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 3: against the Islamic Republic, and yet all of a sudden, 79 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 3: the IOGC is unveiling their projectile and firing ranges. That 80 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 3: should really worry every meaningful European policy maker. So to 81 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,799 Speaker 3: this end, you know, there is ballistic missile defense in Europe, 82 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 3: but it is nowhere as good and nowhere as tested 83 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 3: as it is in the Middle East. In fact, when 84 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 3: this ballistic missile defense architecture was being created as early 85 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 3: as two thousand and nine, it was being created with 86 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 3: the Iranian threat in mind. So it's high time to 87 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 3: take that architecture that existed and upgraded to what the 88 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 3: Iranian threat looks like in twenty twenty six, rather than 89 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 3: let some of those sites and systems and strategies atrophy 90 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,599 Speaker 3: and remain back as they were in two thousand and nine. 91 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: You mentioned the former Supreme Leader himself saying that they 92 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: couldn't reach beyond that two thousand kilometer mark. The Foreign 93 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,799 Speaker 1: Minister has said the exact same thing publicly. It should 94 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: also put a spotlight on it, shouldn't it. People like 95 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: Joe Kent, who quit his position and keeps referencing this 96 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 1: fatwah from the Supreme Leader is one of the main 97 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: reasons he believes they weren't looking to develop nuclear weapons, 98 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: which to me is fascical. But surely even people who 99 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:15,679 Speaker 1: hate Israel, hate the West, hate themselves, hate everything, should 100 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 1: be able to say that if they lie about ballistic missiles, 101 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 1: then the likelihood is they're lying about everything else, including 102 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,840 Speaker 1: their intention and where they're up to with nuclear capability. 103 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 3: I'm inclined to agree with you on that if your 104 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 3: Islamic Republic is lying on missile, it certainly has been 105 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 3: lying on nuclear. It's a little odd for us to 106 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 3: take the fib of the Supreme Leader when it came 107 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 3: to a quote unquote nuclear fatwah many years ago, and 108 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 3: use that as human shield for American or Western inaction 109 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 3: when it comes to dealing with the threat of the 110 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 3: Islamica public. I think it's absolutely a fool's errand to 111 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 3: wait for the threat to actually be at your neck, 112 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,359 Speaker 3: for the knife to be sharpened in front of you 113 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 3: for years and you do nothing. Move towards your neck, 114 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 3: and you do nothing. And then only when it's place 115 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 3: that your neck do you say, Aha, now it is imminence, 116 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 3: allow me to begin to move to address it. I 117 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 3: believe that is not state graft, that is not strategy. 118 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 3: That is actually what I call the height of folly. 119 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 3: And you know, with immense respect to mister Kent and 120 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 3: his many, many years of service in uniform to America, 121 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 3: I'm not going to touch his resignation letter politically or 122 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 3: legally or any other way. I will simply say, as 123 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 3: someone who has also been looking for a while at 124 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 3: declassified US intelligence there is something that the likes of 125 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 3: mister Kent should take to heart when it comes to 126 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 3: relying on this quote unquote nuclear fatwa, and that is 127 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 3: actually an intelligence community assessment of chemical weapons used during 128 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 3: the Iran I Rock War by America. It was largely 129 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 3: about Iraq, but also there was an Iranic component because 130 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 3: Iran briefly began to experiment there as well. And the 131 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 3: intelligence community said, then, in plain English, you know, in 132 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 3: April nineteen eighty seven, iron clearly crossed the chemical barrier. 133 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 3: And it says that whereas there may have been political 134 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 3: and religious prohibitions, things changed. So here, even if one 135 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 3: is inclined to believe the political or believe the religious prohibition, 136 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 3: things have changed. And again it's a mistake to hang 137 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 3: American non proliferation policy on an alleged plot from two 138 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 3: thousand and five, just like it's a mistake to lead 139 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 3: European ballistic missile defense policy back in two thousand and nine. 140 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 3: This is twenty twenty six. The world has changed. I 141 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 3: think it's time our friends and allies and even compatriots 142 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 3: at home changed as well. 143 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's about time they catch up. 144 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: Where do you think we're at when it comes to 145 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: the war, and I look at the military component, which 146 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:38,679 Speaker 1: it's hard to argue has been as close to perfection 147 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: as you can get. Nothing is perfect, but that appears 148 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: to be going extraordinarily well. The strategic element, and I 149 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: like to look at it not just from a Western 150 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: perspective or an American perspective, which is end their ability 151 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: to harm us and get out. I care deeply about 152 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: the future of the Iranian people and their ability to 153 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: take back the nation. How do you write where we're 154 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: at now three wakes. 155 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 3: In Well, I really do believe we're on the precipice 156 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 3: because we have two totally different strategies. There are strategies 157 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 3: of attrition by American Israel, and there's strategies is of 158 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 3: attrition by Iran. But the American and Israeli strategy of 159 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 3: attrition is designed to attract Iranian capability and capacity, what 160 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 3: they can do and how much of it they can do. 161 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 3: The Iranian strategy is designed to erode America and Israel's 162 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 3: will to fight by going directly and indirectly against them, 163 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:36,359 Speaker 3: as well as directly and indirectly against their interests energy economics. 164 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 3: So while the conversation here is about politics and security. 165 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 3: The Iranians have brought in the war quite fast, unfortunately, 166 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: quite easily, to make it about energy and economics, to 167 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 3: try to put some hurt on the bone. And now 168 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 3: we see a two very different part game of chicken 169 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 3: between these forces political insecurity, energy economics, American Israel Iranian retaliation. 170 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,199 Speaker 3: And I think that's why we are still on the 171 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 3: razor's edge. The military strategy, the Israelian American decapitation plus 172 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 3: defanging strategy militarily is going along quite well, although I 173 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 3: would say the unveiling of a potential intermediate range ballistic 174 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 3: missile or potential two stage ballistic missile system that could 175 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 3: go up to four thousand kilometers should be setting off 176 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 3: alarm bells in everyone's head who is interested in meaningfully 177 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 3: setting back or knocking out I should say the Islamic 178 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 3: Republic's ballistic missile program. So that's where we are, I 179 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 3: think on the military side of things. On the political 180 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 3: I think that is still very much TBD. I was 181 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 3: really still happy to hear Prime Minison Nan Yahoo just 182 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 3: a few days ago say that goal number three of 183 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:44,319 Speaker 3: this military operation is to quote unquote create the conditions 184 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 3: for the run in people. And that's why I believe 185 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 3: that this attrition mission has to continue, because over the 186 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 3: past six or seven days, we've seen israelly targeting really 187 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 3: move away from that decapitation and towards really gutting that 188 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 3: apparatus of repression, drilling against police forces, IRGC and perhaps 189 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 3: most importantly, besiege and other paramilitaries in that country, not 190 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 3: just leaders but officials, not just officials but staff. Not 191 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 3: just staff, but service people in this very multi layered 192 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 3: apparatus of oppression, and those, if it continues really for 193 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 3: the next few weeks, can indeed stiffen the spine hard 194 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 3: in the resolve of your average running dissident and protester 195 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 3: and potentially pave the pathway for another round of protests. 196 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 3: If the war stops tomorrow, I think it would be 197 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 3: too soon. 198 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: You nervous that America not only ends it themselves and 199 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: wants to walk away because they've achieved their goals, but 200 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: that they pressure Israel to do the same because our 201 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 1: partners in the region and the world wants there to 202 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: be some form of stability, and it doesn't go to 203 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: that third goal that Israel. 204 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:53,719 Speaker 2: Has highlighted, and the people of around one. 205 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: Is there a part of you that worries that things 206 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 1: will get too hot and heavy on the ground in America, 207 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: midterms coming out, pressure, energy prices, etc. Are you confident, 208 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: given Trump has said we will create the conditions and 209 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 1: you take back your country, that he won't go back 210 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: on that. 211 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 2: Where do you sit in that instance? 212 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:14,959 Speaker 3: You know, I think the jury is still out because 213 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 3: the President has proven he's very flexible here. He has 214 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 3: a vision in mind. He has said he wants to win. 215 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 3: In my view, winning only means putting this terror sponsoring 216 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 3: regime out of business. But perhaps the President has a 217 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 3: different timeline for a win, and we have to seriously 218 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 3: consider that. Is this going to be a repeat of 219 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 3: the Twelve Day War where the President steps back and 220 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 3: pulls Israeli run back simultaneously at the same time. Is 221 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 3: this going to be the President stepping back but also 222 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 3: empowering Israel say hey, actually you continue with that mission. 223 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 3: Good on you, and I'll help you continue with that mission. 224 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 3: Or is this going to be actually the President giving 225 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 3: himself and giving the Israelies more time on the clock 226 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 3: to succeed again militarily and politically against these lumber republics. 227 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 3: The jury is still out. The regime is quite keen 228 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 3: to put the pressure on the president again, not just 229 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 3: from the military perspective, but from the energy side, and 230 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 3: the economic side and the aggregate cost side. And this 231 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 3: is what happens when you're fighting asymmetrically and when you're 232 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,079 Speaker 3: fighting a major terror sponsoring regime. So time will tell 233 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 3: which strategy the President adopts. But even if he pulls back, 234 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 3: I think it's imperative for everybody in Washington who wants 235 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 3: a fundamentally different kind of Iran, who believes that that 236 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 3: is the very definition of an America first approach to 237 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 3: the region to be able to advocate for a Phase two, 238 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 3: which is to say, hey, if this regime remains in 239 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 3: power after the major fighting stops, this regime is more 240 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 3: likely to look like a Middle eastern North Korea, and 241 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 3: therefore the mission against it can't stop. So the conceive 242 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 3: of what a Phase two potentially could. 243 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: Be looking forward, the people of Iran. Are you hearing 244 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: much about how they're coping on the ground. We saw 245 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: the hangings of three young men. We're seeing the story 246 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: of the young woman who bravely says to the judge 247 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 1: you're killing so many of our young people, you might 248 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 1: as well kill me too. She's been sentenced to death. 249 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: Do we know what morale is like on the ground. 250 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 2: Are you hearing anything from everyday Iranians? 251 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 3: Well, just recently it was no ruse that Persian New 252 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 3: Year holiday goes on for thirteen days. It was actually 253 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 3: this Friday, March twentieth, at different times in America and 254 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 3: Europe and ran because this is actually based on the 255 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 3: spring equinox, so wherever you are, it's a slightly different time. 256 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 3: And Iranians, did you know visit family did largely try to, 257 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 3: you know, make a day or so abnormalcy, given the 258 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 3: fact that around them as war and all around them 259 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 3: as a repressive regime. But fundamentally they know they're in 260 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 3: a tough place right now. Many Iranians still have fears 261 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 3: of all the costs being paid by protests and repression 262 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,839 Speaker 3: and war, and you know, potentially the conflict being turned 263 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 3: off like the flick of a switch. You know, it 264 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 3: really does talk about the state of psychosis and the 265 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 3: state of real pressure this population is under where they 266 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 3: can continue. I can't speak for every run and obviously, 267 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,559 Speaker 3: but anecdotally that which you can hear via landline or 268 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 3: via a social media message or anything else that is 269 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 3: able to come out given the very limited Internet that 270 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 3: still exists in that country. But all of these images, 271 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 3: all of these messages, you know, it is really desperation. 272 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 3: But it's desperation that is not as much fear as 273 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 3: it is anger. It is anger against this regime for 274 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 3: having really forced everyone to embrace the military option. And 275 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 3: it would be anger if that option is cut short 276 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 3: and the running people, unarmed and alone, would have to 277 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 3: again meet the hardened national security deep state that is 278 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 3: more theocratic and more repressive than ever before. So there 279 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 3: is real concern. They are trying to, you know, live 280 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 3: in the moment again, the thirteen day long version of 281 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 3: your holiday. But again I do worry for them. 282 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: It's interesting when we look at what the Islamic crese 283 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: game is doing regarding I mean, they can't bait America 284 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: and Israel militarily, but this kind of psychological warfare and 285 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: trying to get Americans to get frustrated and putting pressure 286 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: on the government, et cetera, et cetera. The greatest risk 287 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: and threat they face is their own people, isn't it. 288 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: I mean, they're the ones that they need to lose, hope, 289 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: more than any American, more than any Israeli, any Jew, 290 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 1: anyone else. 291 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 2: They need to kill the spirit of their own people 292 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 2: to survive, don't they. 293 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 3: And so far, I would say, out of all the constituencies, 294 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 3: that's the one that's held firm. That's the one that 295 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 3: has been willing to go out in the street in 296 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 3: January unarmed. That's the one that was willing to really 297 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 3: make their case on social media throughout the month of February. 298 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 3: And that's the one that has still, despite literal bombs 299 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 3: going across around them, them not knowing what their very 300 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 3: next day would be, still being willing to kind of 301 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 3: support this mission. Again, I can't speak for all ninety 302 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 3: two million, but anecdotally, those that we get to hear 303 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 3: from still very much do want this fight to end, 304 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 3: but a fight to end for a victory for America, 305 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 3: for Israel, and most importantly for the Iranian people. So 306 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 3: they want the West to finish the job so that 307 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 3: this big of violence can't be turned on or turned off, 308 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 3: both at home and abroad. 309 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 2: We're looking at a deadline. 310 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: Straight of Hormu's final question, what plays out here the 311 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 1: President's laid out a threat. 312 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 2: The regime has responded. What happens next? 313 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 3: You know, I recently saw a video on social media, 314 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 3: but from the regime itself, where you even had a member, 315 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 3: a spokesperson for the Military Commands Central Headquarters tell President 316 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 3: from an English that he was fired. And I feel like, 317 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 3: if this is really the mo of the regime, they 318 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 3: are the ones who will be playing with fire. I 319 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 3: mean this administration. Yes, it's been willing to relax rush 320 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 3: oil sanctions, relax even to roun oil sanctions to make 321 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 3: sure that what come, what may militarily in the Persian 322 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 3: golf and Straight of Hormuz is felt least in the 323 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 3: pockets of the average American or the average consumer of 324 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 3: the things that are exported there, which is largely energy 325 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 3: products and fertilizer. But at this point in time, I 326 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 3: think the regime is leaving the President with no pathway 327 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 3: other than to really carve out, you know, militarily on 328 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 3: restore I should say, militarily the free flow of oil 329 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 3: and free flow of commerce in this very important waterway. 330 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 3: So the regime in so many ways, by doubling down, 331 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 3: is leading with its chin against President Trump. 332 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 2: Good luck indeed, thank you so much. Really appreciate your time, 333 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 2: your expertise and your brilliance. As always, thank. 334 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 3: You, it's a pleasure. Thanks for having me.