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Speaker 1: That's on The Money Show six to eight pm.

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Speaker 2: Confirmation in the last twenty four hours, Discovery Health, the

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Speaker 2: administrators of the Discovery Medical Scheme, have now reversed their

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Speaker 2: previous decision to clawback money they had paid to some

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Speaker 2: members by mistake. Discovery Health sent emails to over sixteen

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Speaker 2: thousand people in December saying they'd overpaid those members pharmacy bills.

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Speaker 2: As a result, they were not going to pay their

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Speaker 2: medical costs this year until they had made up the difference. Then,

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Speaker 2: over the weekend, the Discovery Health CEO Ron Whelan emailing

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Speaker 2: those members saying Discovery Health would pay back the money

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Speaker 2: to the Discovery Medical Scheme so members would not have

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Speaker 2: to repay it. Mark Harmen is the founder of Medicheck,

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Speaker 2: an organization that's been very involved in this. They represent

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Speaker 2: people in the cases of medical aid claims. Marked Evening.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's so much that's extraordinary to this, and

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Speaker 2: I remember so clearly you telling us on the Money

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Speaker 2: Show last week that Discovery Health never had any legal

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Speaker 2: claim to this money in the first place.

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Speaker 3: Good evening, Stephen, Good even to your listeners, thank you

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Speaker 3: for having me back. Yes, Stephen, in our opinion and

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Speaker 3: the opinion of our senior Council, Discovery had absolutely no

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Speaker 3: right to this supported clawback. And as I think I

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Speaker 3: stressed in last week's meeting or interview, the law is

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Speaker 3: very clear, and the law says that if a medical

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Speaker 3: aid pays you Stephen Hurdis, and you do not know

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Speaker 3: that you've been overpaid in any way for a whole year,

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Speaker 3: Discovery only have thirty days within which to say to Stephen, Stephen,

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Speaker 3: we're sorry, we've made an error. We now need to

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Speaker 3: pull that back or to put a payment arrangement in

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Speaker 3: place of this over payment, and you have sixty days

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Speaker 3: in which to lodge a dispute against that other payment.

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Speaker 3: So yes, we were of the opinion and we still

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Speaker 3: remain family of the opinion that that era was an

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Speaker 3: error from Discovery. And as I said, I think on

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Speaker 3: numerous interviews over the last week, they have to take

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Speaker 3: it on the chin and they have.

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Speaker 2: What I don't get is I don't know when at

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Speaker 2: which point Ron willim the Discovery Health CEO, got into this.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I can't imagine he was responsible for the

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Speaker 2: first mistake. It would be you know, someone running a

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Speaker 2: computer system somewhere. But even if all of Discovery Health's

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Speaker 2: legal staff were away over the holidays, and even if

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Speaker 2: all of their media staff were too, he would surely

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Speaker 2: have known that, and yet he still tried to argue

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Speaker 2: the other way.

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Speaker 3: Stephen from you know, we had a meeting with Discovery

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Speaker 3: Health last Thursday with their executor. Ron himself wasn't a meeting,

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Speaker 3: but Karen Sanderson was, and Karen is the chief operating

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Speaker 3: officer of Discovery with her executive team, and they made

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Speaker 3: it clear to us that they became aware of the

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Speaker 3: error some six weeks prior to the issuance of the

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Speaker 3: clawback on members, so they were actually aware of it.

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Speaker 3: And the fact that they took until the city of

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Speaker 3: the December twenty twenty five to start calling members to

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Speaker 3: say books we've made an error, we found astonishing.

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Speaker 4: Sure.

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Speaker 2: I mean there's so much that sort of comes out

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Speaker 2: of this. I mean I do wonder, and I mean

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Speaker 2: we shouldn't really personalize these things. It's a mistake, but

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Speaker 2: I mean I do wonder if there'll be changes at

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Speaker 2: Discovery Health as a result. I mean, yes, they made

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Speaker 2: a profit. I think it was four and a half

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Speaker 2: billion round last year. I need to go check in

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Speaker 2: their twenty twenty five results. Bat this is still a

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Speaker 2: big mistake, and I mean what it's cost them in

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Speaker 2: kind of good will is huge.

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Speaker 3: Yes, it is, Stephen, And you know, we've received an

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Speaker 3: excess of ninety one hundred and seventy five complaints from

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Speaker 3: the sixteen thousand members. But our calculation now that we

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Speaker 3: have so much more information, we've been able to analyze

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Speaker 3: it and we've extrapolated the numbers and we estimate now

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Speaker 3: that the actual figure that is involved is anyway between

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Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty five million round and one hundred

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Speaker 3: and forty million rare.

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Speaker 2: Sure. Mark Carmen, thanks very much, indeed, founder of medizech

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Speaker 2: ready to appreciate the time. I do get the sense

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Speaker 2: that this is not going to be the end of

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Speaker 2: the story, and I would imagine, I mean, most companies

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Speaker 2: that lose one hundred and forty million round there'll be

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Speaker 2: a sort of bigger investigation in some way, shape or form.

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Speaker 2: Sixteen minutes now after six o'clock, good money show we're

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Speaker 2: deep in it.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 2: New figures today showing that South Africa's bilateral trade deficit

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Speaker 2: with China is being pushed up by the large number

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Speaker 2: of Chinese cars being imported and sold. Here the Nationalistsociation

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Speaker 2: of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa confirming car imports. We're

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Speaker 2: up by thirty percent from January to November compared to

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Speaker 2: the same period in the year before, and I suppose

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Speaker 2: inevitably this leads to fears about whether our car industry

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Speaker 2: will survive. Doctor Paulina Mamochobo is the chief economist at

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Speaker 2: an AMSIR. Paulina, good evening and thanks for your time,

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Speaker 2: I mean all of us, surely is bad news for

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Speaker 2: our car industry. It just won't be able to compete.

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Speaker 6: Sure good evening, Stephen, and good evening to your listlesseness.

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Speaker 6: So definitely, when we look at it from the strategic imperatives,

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Speaker 6: it is putting pressure on our domestic local manufacturing.

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Speaker 7: So what a lot of.

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Speaker 6: People or consumers usually celebrate is when they see that

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Speaker 6: we've gone up by fifteen point seven percent in terms

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Speaker 6: of new vehicle sales and they say the industry is

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Speaker 6: doing well. But when you look at the comparative figures

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Speaker 6: in twenty twenty four, at least the top ten selling models,

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Speaker 6: forty percent of that were important and we have seen

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Speaker 6: that also year on year, we've seen that quite increase

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Speaker 6: quite significantly. So what that means is that whilst on

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Speaker 6: a sales performance we're doing well, there's quite significant pressure

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Speaker 6: in terms of our domestic manufacturing as well.

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Speaker 7: Whereby while production I mean.

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Speaker 6: Sales are going up and we see imports going up,

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Speaker 6: when we look at our production figures they remain quite

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Speaker 6: muted significantly, And of course you start thinking what does

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Speaker 6: that then mean to the socio economic impact of the country,

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Speaker 6: such as jobs and of course some of the economic

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Speaker 6: activity that we continue to anchor in these strategic provinces

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Speaker 6: whereby we operate.

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Speaker 2: If you look at the shear scale, the sheer number

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Speaker 2: of cars that are being imported from China, but also

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Speaker 2: the shear diversity of models. I mean, it seems there'll

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Speaker 2: be more luxury versions, but they're cheap cars too. It

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Speaker 2: would seem that we would never be able to compete.

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Speaker 2: I mean, is it fair to say that South Africa

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Speaker 2: car manufacturers would never be able to compete? Would that

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Speaker 2: be accurate?

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Speaker 6: Maybe let me take it one step back. I think

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Speaker 6: important to highlight is that a mist of China's trade supplus,

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Speaker 6: it's also a surplus in automotive manufacturing, meaning that we're

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Speaker 6: seeing that they have reached a supplied lot of over

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Speaker 6: twenty five million units. What they are producing in their market,

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Speaker 6: their own domestic market is not able to consume. So

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Speaker 6: where are they looking for other growth markets? It's in

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Speaker 6: other emerging markets, and that's why we see a lot

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Speaker 6: of influx. And of course it's not just a unique

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Speaker 6: position for South Africa, but we seeing the same as

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Speaker 6: well happening in a big continent such as Europe. What

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Speaker 6: that then means is that even with our production and

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Speaker 6: what we are able to produce locally, competing with the

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Speaker 6: Chinese influx, and this is what we call the Chinese

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Speaker 6: aggressive growth is going to be quite significantly difficult. The

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Speaker 6: Financial Times recently reported that just in twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 6: we're expecting an auto export growth in China of over

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Speaker 6: twenty five percent. That's about seven million cars just in

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty six. So where will that be going in

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Speaker 6: markets such as our market, which is the African market.

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Speaker 6: And maybe Stephen, just to paint a bit of a picture,

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty four, we had about eight Chinese brands that

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Speaker 6: were reporting to NASA. Twenty twenty five that grew in

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Speaker 6: additional six companies as well. Brands rather in twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 6: we're actually expecting that we will have even those brands

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Speaker 6: explaining their derivatives more than six times than what was

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Speaker 6: reported in twenty twenty five. So already we are seeing

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Speaker 6: that influx, and that's what will continue to put pressure

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Speaker 6: into the domestic market. And maybe from a trade perspective,

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Speaker 6: what makes it difficult for us to compete is on

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Speaker 6: an auto trade balance that's eighty seven to one in

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Speaker 6: favor of China, so meaning that because of this over capacity,

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Speaker 6: we do not have a match to be able to

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Speaker 6: compete with the strength and that they have built or

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Speaker 6: the competitiveness that they've built over the years as a market.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm no expert on trade, but I understand

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Speaker 2: that in China there was a period when these cars

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Speaker 2: were being sold. I mean, you could get discounts of

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Speaker 2: sixty percent of the sort of first price that they'd

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Speaker 2: been made for, and there various reasons as to why

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Speaker 2: that happened. And I would have thought that at the

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Speaker 2: first hint that they were selling cars here for less

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Speaker 2: than cost price, and we wouldn't be the first country

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Speaker 2: to do this. This is happening in other countries too. There

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Speaker 2: will be complaints of dumping. I don't know if that

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Speaker 2: would have any impacts at all.

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Speaker 6: Interestingly, I looked at that modeling in my December periote,

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Speaker 6: meaning that I didn't have much of a break. But

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Speaker 6: when we look at what the price points at which

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Speaker 6: the Chinese market is actually selling to the domestic market,

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Speaker 6: they are not actually selling at a price less than

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Speaker 6: what they are selling in their home market, meaning that

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Speaker 6: arguing dumping may be quite a conversation that we're not

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Speaker 6: able to prove. What we're able to prove is the

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Speaker 6: over subsidization, which is what is actually reducing the cost

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Speaker 6: of the vehicle in their domestic market, and of course

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Speaker 6: then reducing the cost of the vehicle when it comes

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Speaker 6: into the domestic market. What makes it a bit more

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Speaker 6: price here in the South African market is our taxation model.

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Speaker 6: So about forty three percent of the vehicle price is

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Speaker 6: actually text bat carbon text at venorum text that the

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Speaker 6: premium that the dealerships actually put on the vehicles, so

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Speaker 6: that actually barks up the price of the vehicle. So

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Speaker 6: the argument of dumping, we would have to really do

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Speaker 6: acquite a rigorous exercise whereby we check comparatively. But having

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Speaker 6: run my models, we realize that we have a much

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Speaker 6: more stronger case and over subsidization versus dumping because they

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Speaker 6: are able to absorb some of these costs that actually

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Speaker 6: come into the manufacturing process in terms of how they

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Speaker 6: incentivize production on their base market.

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Speaker 2: Are you looking at putting at advising government to lodge

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Speaker 2: some complaints somewhere if there is a basis for it.

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Speaker 6: Of course we would have to abide by the WGO

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Speaker 6: regulations because we are guided by that. So the only

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Speaker 6: time we're able to sort of lodge that is if

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Speaker 6: we are able to get to a point of proving

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Speaker 6: harm and I think as part of the work that

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Speaker 6: we do together with the manufacturing OEMs that are in

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Speaker 6: the countries to be able to quantify that, and once

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Speaker 6: we're able to get to it as establishing that this

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Speaker 6: actually is causing significant harm, then we will be lodging

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Speaker 6: a case with an I text to say this is

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Speaker 6: some of the things that we can look at, maybe

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Speaker 6: the potential threat of ham which is what we can

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Speaker 6: actually put forward so that as the investigation bill, then

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Speaker 6: we're able to say this is the impact that it's

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Speaker 6: able to cause or that which will be causing twelve

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Speaker 6: domestic manufacturing.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Paulina Mamochobo, thank you so much.

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Speaker 8: Well.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Martin Davis is an expert birth on the automotive

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Speaker 2: industry and on China. Martin good evening, one million cars

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Speaker 2: exported by China and twenty twenty projected to export seven

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Speaker 2: million this year. Are they really going to keep up

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Speaker 2: this level of production?

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Speaker 9: Uh?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, good evening, steveny have really sort of staggering figures

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Speaker 10: that Paulina set out there, and as it is obvious,

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Speaker 10: the local incumbent industry needs needs to react alongside government,

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Speaker 10: I think really be quickly on this. And to answer

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Speaker 10: your question, yes they can.

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Speaker 2: Clearly.

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Speaker 10: There's almost what a sort of a pressure valve release

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Speaker 10: that has become exports.

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Speaker 2: There's over you.

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Speaker 10: Know, the the the overcapait we've seen in many sectors

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Speaker 10: for the last twenty years. And Steve, we've been talking

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Speaker 10: for years about this in other sectors, and you steer

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Speaker 10: it in upstream sectors like steel and many others in

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Speaker 10: China where you have this significant overcapacity issue of manufacturing,

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Speaker 10: and then at the same time you have companies. As

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Speaker 10: sectors tend to liberalize or as technology kicks in many cases,

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Speaker 10: companies tend to always invest ahead of a market, and

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Speaker 10: hence you have the so called overcapacity issue. And of

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Speaker 10: course it has been exacerbated by recent consumer sentiment or

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Speaker 10: lack thereof in China itself, which is you know, which

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Speaker 10: is certainly impacting the necessitating this drive for exports.

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Speaker 2: You know, I live here in the Middle East.

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Speaker 10: In the last two and a half years, it's been staggering,

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Speaker 10: So Africa must not think it's unique here. The influx

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Speaker 10: of lower cost, a relatively high quality, well designed vehicles

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Speaker 10: coming out of China is indeed staggering.

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Speaker 2: As I understand it, and you'll know it far better

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Speaker 2: than I. But the reason that China is producing so

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Speaker 2: many cars is because government set targets. As we can see,

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Speaker 2: there is no demand for them in China. Does it

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Speaker 2: serve China's interests to do this or could the Chinese

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Speaker 2: government reverse its previous decision and say, actually, don't produce

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Speaker 2: so many cars.

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Speaker 10: Look, I think that's wrong people. Honestly, this is this

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Speaker 10: is not a government directive or government quota system. That's

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Speaker 10: a view of China as twenty twenty five years out

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Speaker 10: of date. This is hence private sector competition absally intense,

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Speaker 10: and so I always use this word way off when

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Speaker 10: I talk about Chinese manufacturing. It's Darwinian in nature. So

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Speaker 10: you know, Chinese firms can can Western should we say,

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Speaker 10: or even Japanese incumbents compete with Chinese firms or I

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Speaker 10: respond by saying, what Chinese firms can't compete with Chinese firms?

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Speaker 10: And it really is a race to consolidate. You've got

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Speaker 10: a few hundred literally, Paulina was talking about the increased

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Speaker 10: presence of brands here and domestics so Africa market. You've

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Speaker 10: got literally hundreds of brands in China, most of which

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Speaker 10: you and I never even heard of. Now most of

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Speaker 10: these will disappear in the next ten years or so.

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Speaker 10: This consultant period will be deeply disruptive for the global economy.

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Speaker 10: And we'll even reported today even that that China, as

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Speaker 10: of last week for twenty twenty five figures, Chinese cars

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Speaker 10: in terms of new car sales globally now rank number

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Speaker 10: one in the world, having displaced for Japanese who held

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Speaker 10: that position for the last two decades for twenty years.

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Speaker 2: The trends going forward, and.

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Speaker 10: This is particularly I think is building on the valid

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Speaker 10: to very good points which Paulina mentioned is the rising

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Speaker 10: increase in protectionist sentiment for incumbents. I think it's a

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Speaker 10: fine line for DTIC to tread. You have to yes, protectionism, Yes,

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Speaker 10: you cannot compete against this. The challenges, however, to consider

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Speaker 10: is that it's not so much countries who are competing here,

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Speaker 10: it's companies. And these companies all have very very global

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Speaker 10: value chains in terms of procuring and selling whatever it

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Speaker 10: may be. The supply chains are very global, So how

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Speaker 10: do you differentiate. It's like an apple, apple, you know,

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Speaker 10: phone or whatever it may be. How do you how

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Speaker 10: do you attrack that supply chain? And it's extremely extremely complex.

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Speaker 10: You can imagine the components and the car for example.

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Speaker 10: I think the second thing is to balance is the

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Speaker 10: is the need to attract investment. You really there's thirty

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Speaker 10: one Chinese automotive factories currently globally outside of China, thirty one.

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Speaker 10: The trend going forward for US is to attract these

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Speaker 10: manufacturers into South Africa. Yes, to create jobs, but more importantly,

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Speaker 10: to create value. And the jobs we recall will not,

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Speaker 10: we must note, will not come from the factories. They

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Speaker 10: will come from downstream, the distribution logistics and whatever else

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Speaker 10: in the whole value chain, of that of that of

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Speaker 10: an investment. So I think these are things you need

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Speaker 10: to think about going forward. Ultimately need to be strategic

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Speaker 10: and pragmatic. But again building on what the figures mentioned earlier,

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Speaker 10: was I'm staggered that I'm really surprised in the South

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Speaker 10: African market, which is a now growth economy. We have

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Speaker 10: newcast sales up what was it of a fifteen percent

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Speaker 10: growth economy.

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Speaker 4: This is a.

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Speaker 10: Very pro The exports are so from a manufacturing perspective,

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Speaker 10: and think about Stephen. The last twenty years, I mean

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Speaker 10: services have become significantly more expensive because they're non tradeables.

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Speaker 2: You cannot typically your.

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Speaker 10: Your healthcare, your health insurance, your medical your educational services, etc.

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Speaker 10: Are procured locally. The non tradeables across borders. That's very inflationary.

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Speaker 10: The tradeables, let me use a simple phrase, the China price.

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Speaker 10: China has been a force for deflation globally on the

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Speaker 10: product side.

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Speaker 2: So that's very consumer friendly.

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Speaker 10: And these are the issues from protecting incumbent yes, undoubtedly,

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Speaker 10: encouraging investment from new players Chinese OEMs or aspriant OEMs

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Speaker 10: or asper multinationals rather and thirdly being pro consumer in

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Speaker 10: the process as well. These are the forces that we

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Speaker 10: as a as a country, as an automotive industry clearly

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Speaker 10: have to balance.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Martin Davis really do appreciate the time, Thank you

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Speaker 2: very much. Indeed, as you can hear an experts on

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Speaker 2: the automotive industry and on China. The money show the market,

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Speaker 2: Sibonie and Romalo is the chief investment officer the old

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Speaker 2: mutual investment Group, Sibanese or good evening, Ah, where do

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Speaker 2: we start? I mean gold record highs that that pushed

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Speaker 2: the jc to record highs, and that's all because of

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Speaker 2: Jerome Power and Donald Trump.

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Speaker 8: Yes, Stephen, good evening to you and good evening to

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Speaker 8: your listeners. So Stephen, what we're seeing here is a

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Speaker 8: market that's unsettled. Now, why is the market unsettled if

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Speaker 8: we're seeing record highs for the JSE and obviously driven

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Speaker 8: by precious metals, which is gold and platinum. Well, Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump obviously sent Jerome who's the Federal chair, the chair

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Speaker 8: of the Reserve Bank, and they're going to investigate him

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Speaker 8: for some renovations that have cost a lot. Now the

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Speaker 8: market is starting to basically see behaviors here that we

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Speaker 8: would previously only see in emerging economies. If you study

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Speaker 8: your financial history, you would have seen the government, usually

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Speaker 8: led by a strong man, put pressure on the central

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Speaker 8: bank in Turkey, in Argentina, in Venezuela, and as you

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Speaker 8: can read, it never ends well. Steven, So what is

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Speaker 8: the issue here? The issue here isn't about today's interest

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Speaker 8: rates or the renovation projects. When markets basically look and

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Speaker 8: they say America has got high levels of debt, they

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Speaker 8: are running at very large deficits, they're spending more than

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Speaker 8: they get in Texas. And then now Donald Trump basically

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Speaker 8: is putting pressure and has been putting pressure on the

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Speaker 8: federal chair and now with a direct pressure, the most

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Speaker 8: aggressive form of pressure, I'm saying, actually, I want lower

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Speaker 8: interest rates because actually, what's the role of a central

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Speaker 8: bank is to control the price of money. Because when

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Speaker 8: interest rates are high, that's the price of money. Then

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Speaker 8: you spend less. But if interest rates are low, then

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Speaker 8: we all have more money because you're paying less on

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Speaker 8: cars and mortgages. And so therefore Trump wants a booming economy.

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Speaker 8: He wants to get reelected in the midterms. But this

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Speaker 8: is making markets nervous, and so markets then are saying,

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Speaker 8: we don't trust the US. We don't trust the dollar.

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Speaker 8: This is why the rand is where it is too,

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Speaker 8: That's why the gold is where it is. And so

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Speaker 8: therefore we are going to price additional risk on the

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Speaker 8: US market, and it's exactly where markets are. But Stephen,

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Speaker 8: this is wonderful for South Africa, where like probably eight

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Speaker 8: or ninth largest gold producer with the number one platinum

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Speaker 8: group metals producer, and so therefore for our fiscus, these

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Speaker 8: high prices are good for the companies that operate in

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Speaker 8: South Africa, that pay taxes in South Africa, for the

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Speaker 8: people that are employed in South Africa, and obviously for

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Speaker 8: people whose pensions are invested in the sou African market.

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Speaker 8: They were up forty two percent last year the average

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Speaker 8: South African indeed, and so actually this keeps going. Yeah,

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Speaker 8: there's bad news there in America, good news in South Africa.

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Speaker 2: Indeed. I mean it would seem Trump hasn't read its history.

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Speaker 2: Nixon did exactly the same thing in the nineteen seventies

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Speaker 2: and the US suffer's taxation for a long time as

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Speaker 2: a result.

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Speaker 8: Yes, and that's the fear that the market is pricing

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Speaker 8: in the markets. Like we've seen this movie before. Generally

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Speaker 8: it's in emerging economies, but here it is in the

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Speaker 8: most powerful and the most important central bank in the world.

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Speaker 8: It's risky, it does not work, and so therefore this

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Speaker 8: is why we're seeing the I mean, the rand is strengthening.

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Speaker 8: We're happy with the rant, but actually the dollar is weakening.

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Speaker 8: That's actually what's happening and driving our rand. And so

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Speaker 8: therefore the market's saying no, let's have cautioned there to

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Speaker 8: the US. We don't like what we're seeing.

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Speaker 2: Sibanisa, thank you. Sibanis and Lomarlo, chief investment officer at

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Speaker 2: the Old Mutual Investment Group. Stephen has gone x at

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Speaker 2: at Stephen Well are reporting the Sunday Times yesterday suggesting

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Speaker 2: the National Treasury is looking at the increasing the excise

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Speaker 2: tax on the bring of beer by twenty percent. It

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Speaker 2: would obviously increase the price of beer, would also increase

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Speaker 2: the amount of money government gets and tax from clebal

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Speaker 2: Lamini is the campaign manager for the South African Alcohol

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Speaker 2: Policy alligance from Clebor good evening xiz taxes charged to

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Speaker 2: the point of production. I would imagine that'd have a

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Speaker 2: big impact on the price of beer in South Africa.

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Speaker 2: Did something to go up by twenty percent.

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Speaker 7: Good evening, Steven, And indeed the issue of exos tax

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Speaker 7: is one that we need to be talking about because

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Speaker 7: rising xiz taxes, that's what we say as supper is

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Speaker 7: one of the most most effective and cost effective ways

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Speaker 7: to reduce alcohol, and it is something that we are supporting.

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Speaker 7: And the price of beer in our country is currently

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Speaker 7: quite low. In some instances we find that ba is

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Speaker 7: lower than in terms of the price is lower than

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Speaker 7: the loaf of bread, which is what is needed by

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Speaker 7: most people. So definitely we are supporting this as a

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Speaker 7: supper and we are saying it definitely should be increased.

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Speaker 2: What would be the consequences we would get more money

413
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Speaker 2: into the first yes, would it result unless be being drunk?

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Speaker 7: Definitely, Steven, Because who has evidence that whenever at the

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Speaker 7: price of alcohol not necessarily be alone. But the price

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Speaker 7: of alcohol is at a sudden amount, there is less

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Speaker 7: drinking and even those that are consuming alcohol, they tend

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Speaker 7: to consume much less than they would if it was cheaper.

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Speaker 7: So it also speaks to the issue of our young

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Speaker 7: people drinking in our country because currently young people are

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Speaker 7: able to access alcohol easily, and if then the price

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Speaker 7: is higher, then it would mean less people are drinking.

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Speaker 7: And this also then speaks to the issue of what

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Speaker 7: the country actually ends up spending in terms of noncommunicable diseases,

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Speaker 7: because the country is currently spending almost torran what nine

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Speaker 7: billion is pared twenty thirteen dealing with noncommunicable This is

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00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 7: in our country that in some instances caused by the

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Speaker 7: way that we drink, especially the bench drinking that happens.

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Speaker 7: So definitely we see this as a way of reducing

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Speaker 7: the drinking, reducing heavy drinking, and dealing with the issue

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Speaker 7: of young people accessing alcohol.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the obvious arm the obvious argument from the

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Speaker 2: alcohol industry is they'll say it will increase the amount

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Speaker 2: of illegally brewed beer and beer like cigarettes, non table

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Speaker 2: It's not that hard to make and look at the

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Speaker 2: consequences of that illicit alcohol.

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Speaker 7: Stiven is it does exist. We do acknowledge that, but

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Speaker 7: it doesn't necessarily exist because of price. It exists mainly

439
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 7: because of weak enforcement in some instances. What's been seen

440
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 7: in our country is the issue of weak enforcement, and

441
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 7: that's the thing that we need to be looking at,

442
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 7: not necessarily to say that we're not going to come

443
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 7: up with interventions that can ask us this simply because

444
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 7: we are afraid or wor scared, or there's spearmongering that

445
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 7: is coming from the industry to say as soon as

446
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 7: you increase prices or as soon as you implement the

447
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 7: evidence based measures, then suddenly there's going to be listed alcohol.

448
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 7: We are also not wanting ilisted alcolture us. We do

449
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 7: not want trade in cigarettes in our country. But then

450
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 7: we need to look at the poor end licensing enforcement

451
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 7: that is happening. We need to look at the limited

452
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 7: inspections of outlets and manufacturers. We need to look at

453
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 7: corruption and the capacity gapps because when you hear the

454
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 7: liquor the provincial liquapods talking about the issue that they

455
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 7: do not have enough people to be actually checking even

456
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 7: the licensing, that speaks to the capacity gaps that we

457
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 7: have in our country. It also speaks to the inadequate

458
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 7: tracking and customs controls, and that is how the alcohol.

459
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 8: Is coming in the brewing. We remember very.

460
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 7: Well Striven around twenty twenty. People are bring pineapple, but

461
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 7: how much pineapple can you possibly prove? And how much

462
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 7: mango can you possibly So that's the thing that is

463
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 7: an issue here.

464
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: Okay, but that was because we knew it would end.

465
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 2: But if you know it's not going to end, I mean,

466
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 2: it is much easier to set up a little installation

467
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 2: somewhere far away no one knows anything. You can have

468
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 2: all the enforcements in the world. It's a big country.

469
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 2: I don't need to remind.

470
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 4: You of that.

471
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 2: There are all sorts of places you could hide a

472
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 2: massive illicit still, like we presume people do for cigarettes,

473
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 2: and people would absolutely make money out of that. And

474
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 2: I hear you on the enforcement, but I don't know

475
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:15,400
Speaker 2: if it will happen. I mean, we've been talking about

476
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,159
Speaker 2: banning alcohol advertising for how.

477
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 7: Long, of course, not something that we're still talking about,

478
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 7: and it's something that we need to get done, and

479
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 7: we are glad that it has been the issue of

480
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 7: that advertising bill that has just been tabled by that

481
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 7: Private member's bill. That's something that we need to as

482
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 7: society to be pushing again. We know that from twenty

483
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 7: sixteen we're talking about the bill that was on us.

484
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 7: We need to revive it and we need to continue

485
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 7: having those conversations even with our parliamentarians, to say we

486
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 7: need to get these things connected so that we can

487
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 7: be protected as a country. And we still insist that

488
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 7: the strong enforcement and hire texes coming together, they can

489
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 7: assist and the PIVEN. We are not saying a supper

490
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 7: that this is a is a silver bullet.

491
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 4: Obviously it's not.

492
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 7: We need to then talk about the education as communities

493
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 7: in our country. We need to bring forth the departments

494
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 7: that are responsible, Department of Social Development, Department of Health

495
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 7: working together with the Department of Education. All of these

496
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 7: departments need to come on board to make sure that

497
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 7: there's prevention awareness that's talking about these issues of the

498
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 7: alcohol harm, especially as pertains to the noncommunicable diseases that

499
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 7: are enabled or that are pushed and supported by the

500
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 7: way that we drink alcohol. There's issues of breast cancer

501
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 7: STIVEN that are a rising case of breast cancer, rising

502
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 7: cases of other cancers are rising, and we are not

503
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 7: talking about how this links to the way that we

504
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 7: drink alcohol in the country. And in some instances we

505
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 7: may not necessarily be a linking it to cancer, but

506
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 7: more often than not you find that because we are

507
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 7: not dealing with it and talking about it at that

508
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 7: level and understanding that the taxes that government will get

509
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 7: from alcohol are going to actually assist in actually dealing

510
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 7: with the high cost of even the healthcare we need

511
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 7: to deal within the country.

512
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 2: Non Clobald Lamini, thank you so much, campaign manager for

513
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 2: the South African Alcohol Policy Alliance.

514
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 11: The Money Show with Stephen Kuetz is brought to you

515
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 11: by abs as CIB, a Pan African bank invested in

516
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 11: your story and the potential it can unlock because your

517
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 11: story matters APPS as the rested FSP.

518
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 2: Eight minutes now to seven the time well overnight in

519
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: the US, the most extraordinary statement put on YouTube by

520
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 2: the Chair of the US Federal Reserved Jerome bow He

521
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 2: said that there was now clearly a federal government investigation

522
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 2: into the testimony he had given to Congress about renovations

523
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 2: to the headquarters of the FED. He went on to

524
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 2: say he did respect the law, but this was not

525
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 2: about wrongdoing on his part.

526
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 12: But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader

527
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 12: context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure. This new

528
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 12: threat is not about my testimonial last June, or about

529
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 12: the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not

530
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 12: about Congress's oversight role. The FED, through testimony and other

531
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 12: public disclosures, made every effort to keep Congress informed about

532
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 12: the renovation project.

533
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 2: Those are pretexts.

534
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 12: The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the

535
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 12: Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment

536
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 12: of what will serve the public, rather than following the

537
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 12: preferences of the President. This is about whether the FED

538
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 12: will be able to continue to set interest rates based

539
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 12: on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy

540
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 12: will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.

541
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 2: Jerome pal speaking last night Sannish and I do senior

542
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 2: research FED at the Institute of Global Dialogue evening to you,

543
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 2: this is just extraordinary. I mean, you have a chair

544
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 2: of the US Federal Reserve talking about political intimidation.

545
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 13: Good evening, Steven, Yeah, you're right, it's absolutely extraordinary. But

546
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 13: I think, as he has indicated in the brief video

547
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 13: that was released yesterday evening, it's very clear that this

548
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 13: according to your own Powell, he says that it's about

549
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 13: whether the FED will succumb to political pressure by the

550
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 13: Trump administration and not set interest rates based on evidence

551
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 13: around economic conditions. In other words, what's happening economically in

552
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 13: the country with regard to inflation, with regard to cost

553
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 13: of living and so forth. But instead kind of bow

554
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 13: down to the political pressure from the White House and

555
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 13: in particular the Trump presidency to cut interest rates. And

556
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 13: this is again the question of the independence of the

557
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 13: FED and whether the FED is now being pushed or

558
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 13: pulled into the ambit of the Trump presidency in terms

559
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 13: of how they want to monitor and maneuver the economy

560
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 13: because it's not really working out.

561
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 14: I mean, the.

562
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 13: Economy in the US is not at the at best.

563
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 13: And if you look at the latest ratings that have

564
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 13: come out with regard to the President Trump's favorability, it's

565
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 13: sitting at about thirty eight percent that people are seeing

566
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 13: a favorable response by the Trump presidency to the economy.

567
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 13: About sixty one percent of respondents are saying it's not

568
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 13: a good fit.

569
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: For the economy.

570
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 13: So you can see that tension that's coming out. And

571
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 13: to be clear, Trump has also not been favorable in

572
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 13: his comments about the FED chair Jerome Powell. He's always

573
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 13: kind of had a negative reaction to him. And it

574
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 13: seems to talk to bigger questions about what does the

575
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 13: Trump presidency want to do, how does it fit in

576
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 13: with the Secretary of Commerce issues around how this plays

577
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 13: out in a year where the US is going into

578
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 13: midterm elections, and the economy is going to be critical

579
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 13: to that.

580
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 2: I mean, when Trump first came into office, everybody thought, well,

581
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 2: he'll do what the markets want. He'll be driven by

582
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 2: the markets, he'll respond to them. The markets are showing

583
00:30:58,000 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 2: they don't like this. I mean, look at the Gold

584
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 2: Prize right now. It's incredible. But I think there's something

585
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 2: bigger at play here, which is that Trump wants to

586
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 2: do something for the sake that he wants to do it.

587
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 2: He's not going to accept anyone's limits. He's not going

588
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 2: to accept any limits to his power. Now, if that's

589
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 2: the case, it would seem to me and I already

590
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 2: don't want to be alarmist, but people who think, well,

591
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 2: he won't go that far and try and remove Powell

592
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 2: might be wrong. He will.

593
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 10: Yeah.

594
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 13: I mean, it's it's the unpredictability of command. And you've

595
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 13: seen this in the last I mean, we already have

596
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 13: to say in the last couple of days with regard

597
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 13: to Venezuela, with regard to the way in which he's

598
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 13: responded to the actions of the ice agents in what

599
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 13: happened in Minnesota, the response to how how, how how

600
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 13: he's reacting to this, so at the moment, he's also

601
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 13: now taken taken the US out of or out of

602
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 13: UN agencies. There's also a sense that, you know, any

603
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 13: that's seen as anti Trump could be construed as being

604
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 13: domestic terrorism.

605
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: Or a domestic terrorist. So there's a very broad and

606
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: a very long.

607
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 13: Kind of definition which doesn't really have the kind of anchor.

608
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 13: So I think it's going to be important to look

609
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 13: at this also in the context of.

610
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: Where the dollar is. I mean, if you look at

611
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: where the dollar is now.

612
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 13: And he's also made a few posts on his social

613
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 13: media a platform where he's now threatened brick countries bricks

614
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 13: plus to not use their currencies of localized payments, I mean,

615
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 13: you stick to the dollars, So he's kind of using

616
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 13: this also.

617
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: Tying it to the way in which the dollar in.

618
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 13: A sense is losing its value proposition as the global reserve.

619
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: Currency because gold.

620
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 13: Has now kind of spiked to over four thousand dollars

621
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 13: an ounce. The other precious metal that's spiking and it's

622
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 13: actually going to have an incredible impact is silver. And

623
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 13: that also links back to the fact that it's not

624
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 13: just about you know, the FED chair and what he

625
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 13: wants the FED chair to do in terms of telling

626
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 13: the fair chair that your independence doesn't make any sense.

627
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 13: We will tell you how to play this out. He

628
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 13: wants a dollar that can actually be transactionable, but he

629
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 13: also wants the world not to start using alternative or

630
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 13: try to.

631
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: Use localized payments.

632
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 13: And already at the end of last year we saw

633
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 13: around about forty percent of the dollar where people are

634
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 13: not transacting so much in the dollar. This ties into

635
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 13: the swift, It ties into a whole lot of bigger

636
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 13: financial questions. But it's going to be interesting because it

637
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 13: is going to impact on the fact that the US

638
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 13: has a US domestic debt of about thirty eight trillion

639
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 13: US dollars.

640
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: We've got just thirty seconds left, Sluitia. But I mean,

641
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 2: this also seems to be to me to be a

642
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 2: historic moment. It's not just that the US is losing

643
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 2: kind of the leadership role it had in the sort

644
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 2: of western sphere of the world. It's also losing the

645
00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: leadership role it had in the economy.

646
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 13: Yes, and this is the underprinting of that.

647
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: Because the dollar is this reserve.

648
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 13: Currency, and that's why you have this floating currency which

649
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,879
Speaker 13: has now replaced US replacing the gold standard. What you're

650
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 13: now seeing is a hedging against the dollar with gold

651
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 13: and other kinds of precious metals. But it's also about

652
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 13: the security of critical munderals because again this ties into

653
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 13: what the US companies are thinking about or what Trump

654
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 13: is thinking about in terms of critical munerals that link

655
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 13: back to value added production silver. For example, in making tomahawks,

656
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,800
Speaker 13: you know you require silver. The Chinese have a monopoly

657
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 13: on that, and of course you know the price of

658
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 13: silver is the next thing that we need to look

659
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:40,720
Speaker 13: at that's spiking.

660
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 2: So Nusia and Iidi, thank you so much, really appreciate

661
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 2: the time, Senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue.

662
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 2: Incredible times we're living through. Just a reminder, Ron Will

663
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 2: and the CEO at Discovery Help, agreed to speak to

664
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 2: you in about ten minutes from now. We'll hear his

665
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: view on all of this. We have heard quite a

666
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 2: strong critique about what he said about the Discovery health

667
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 2: and the payments issue. Will get his side of that

668
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 2: story in just a moment. Azar Ja min as well,

669
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 2: he will be talking to you about his career as

670
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 2: an economist from seven thirty Breaking news now around the

671
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 2: metric pass rate at seven o'clock.

672
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,720
Speaker 1: The Money Show on seven OS.

673
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 2: Monday till Friday, six to a pm. Well, over the

674
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 2: last few days, you've heard all about the Discovery Health issue,

675
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 2: the fact that they overpaid some of their customers their

676
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 2: PHARMACYA bills over the course of last year for about

677
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 2: a twelve month period. Just before the end of the year,

678
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: they said to those customers, we want the money back.

679
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 2: We won't be reimbursing you for your medical cost until

680
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 2: you've made that up. Then, as you can imagine, a

681
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 2: huge outcry heard, and then over the weekend they confirmed

682
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 2: over sixteen thousand customers they would no longer claw back

683
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 2: the money they had overpaid during the course of last year.

684
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: And earlier on the Money Show you heard from medichecks

685
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 2: Mark Himan that, in fact, he says, meant Discovery Health

686
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 2: never had the legal basis to claim they should be

687
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:06,399
Speaker 2: repaid by customers simply because you only have thirty days

688
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 2: as a medical scheme to actually reclaim that money. Well,

689
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 2: let's get the other side. Num, very please to tell

690
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 2: you that doctor Ron willin CEO Discovery Help, has agreed

691
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 2: to speak to you tonight. Ron Good evening, I know

692
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: it's been a crazy couple of days for you. Firstly,

693
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 2: is it correct that if a medical aid scheme overpays

694
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 2: a member, it only has thirty days to lodge a dispute.

695
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 9: Good evening, Stephen, thank you for hosting us. I mean,

696
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 9: I'll get your question right now, but I do want

697
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 9: to just start off apologizing to the discovery of medical

698
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 9: scheme members have been impacted by the error. It is

699
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 9: a small proportion of the membership base, but anyone impacted

700
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 9: is not acceptable. So just wanted to start there, Stephen. Stephen,

701
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 9: let me come to that's a very important question you

702
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:56,839
Speaker 9: ask and judge. Unfortunate that has been completely misrepresented. Let

703
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 9: me explain the rules very clear to you telling to you.

704
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 9: In the Medical Scheme Act, the thirty day rule is

705
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 9: an obligation on medical schemes to pay claims within thirty days.

706
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 9: So our systems need to ensure that all providers and

707
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 9: members claims are paid within thirty days.

708
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 4: It's a big obligation to do that.

709
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,399
Speaker 9: There is then a four month rule, and the four

710
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 9: month rule is the period of time that members have

711
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 9: to submit their claims. The providers have to submit their claims.

712
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 9: Claims are not submitted within the foremoths, they are determined

713
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 9: to be stale claims, So that's are clearly provided for

714
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 9: when the medical schemes act. There's a third parameter in

715
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 9: there related to a three year rule, and the three

716
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:41,879
Speaker 9: year rule is the period in which medical schemes can

717
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 9: recover funds that were incorrectly paid through either fraud, waste abuse,

718
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 9: or errors. So I just want to be crystal clear

719
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 9: on this. It's a pity that this has been misrepresented

720
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 9: through various channels, social media and otherwise. It's a highly

721
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 9: highly regulated industry.

722
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 4: The rules and legislation are entirely clear, and.

723
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 9: In this particular instance, your the scheme was operating, you're

724
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 9: fully within the legislation and regulatory environments to enact to

725
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 9: other recovery that you have proceeded on during the course

726
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 9: of December three years.

727
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 2: So if you made an error in paying me one

728
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 2: hundred thousand rand, you would have three years and only

729
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 2: three years later you could claim for it.

730
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, it's very unusual that it extends to

731
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,760
Speaker 9: that period of time. That's not the way we operate

732
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 9: our business. So we seek to identify these errors and

733
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 9: correct them as quickly as you're possible, but there are

734
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 9: some complicated technicalities around your medical scheme claiming environments and

735
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,919
Speaker 9: the act as I say, you're rightly or wrongly does

736
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 9: permit up to a three year period. You know, we

737
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 9: typically typically your reprocessed claims and you are correct any

738
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 9: areas you're within there somewhere around a four to six

739
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 9: month your window, and we like to do it much

740
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 9: much quicker than that. You're within within days, and you

741
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 9: know that's typically how things unfold.

742
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 2: Okay, So then if that's the case, I would imagine

743
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 2: you felt you were on strong ground here.

744
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:12,720
Speaker 4: Absolutely, Stephen.

745
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 9: I mean, I think it's important to point out, notwithstanding

746
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 9: the you know, the individual circumstances and members, the scheme

747
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 9: was entirely within its rights to pursue the recovery of

748
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 9: these overpaid months during the course of the year. It's

749
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 9: interesting now when you look at the manifestation of this era,

750
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 9: most of the overpayments manifested during the last four months

751
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 9: of twenty twenty five. So we're roll within you that

752
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 9: four month your window as well. But the legal standpoint

753
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 9: is was you know, entirely, entirely strong. It works the

754
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 9: same as the financial sector. Stephen you'll know that if

755
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 9: there's money erroneously paid into your bank account, you know

756
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 9: the bank is you're fully entitled to recover that money,

757
00:39:56,360 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 9: and your medical schemes operate on the same basis. I think, Stephen,

758
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 9: I do want to say, however, we must look beyond

759
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 9: just the data, the statistics, you know, the legal facts,

760
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,479
Speaker 9: the technical facts around us. And that's exactly what we've

761
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 9: done in coming to this decision to pay the overpaid

762
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 9: amounts that your members incurred on behalf of members back

763
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 9: to the medical scheme. This is a question of your

764
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 9: principles overriding technicalities.

765
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 4: Are taking due consideration for.

766
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 9: The circumstances and the very individual and unique circumstances that

767
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 9: members face in this particular era. And that's what we

768
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 9: uncovered in the first part, very early stages of the

769
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 9: recovery process.

770
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 4: Here within the first two or three.

771
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 9: Days, once we started engaging members on the recovery, we

772
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 9: quickly realized that this was a very unique set of

773
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 9: circumstances and experiences, and each member had a unique circumstance

774
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 9: and experience, and listening carefully to those circumstances and experience,

775
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 9: we quickly made a decision on a principle basis to

776
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 9: cover the cost of the overpaid overpaid a months.

777
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:05,839
Speaker 2: Okay, I mean I can imagine so in an organization

778
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 2: like yours, someone first sort of says, look, I think

779
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 2: there's a problem here. They go to their bus or whoever,

780
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 2: and they say, I think there's a problem here. You

781
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 2: have to convince that person and convince that person. My

782
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 2: understanding is and this is what Mark Hyman, who I

783
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 2: know you'll be aware of, he told us about an

784
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 2: hour ago on The Money Show that it took six

785
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 2: weeks before you actually contacted the first members to say

786
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 2: there'd been a problem. I imagine you were wanting to

787
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 2: make sure of what had exactly happened.

788
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 9: That's a pretty that you're being communicated in that way.

789
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 9: Let me give it the facts around the Steven. I mean,

790
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 9: it is a complex your environment, and I'll be you're

791
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 9: very clear with you. The error manifested in a system

792
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 9: update in early January last year. It related to accumulation

793
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 9: against the above threeshold benefit. Now, because it's an accumulation eraror,

794
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 9: it takes time for the error to manifest and the

795
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 9: numbers and the system so you would only detected later

796
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 9: in the year given the numbers. The second thing is

797
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 9: that the error related specifically to the activation of the

798
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 9: Personal Health Fund benefit across these members, and everyone activated

799
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:14,280
Speaker 9: at a different time of the year. So incredibly incredibly

800
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 9: hard to pick up your through the system monitoring. Now

801
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 9: it is your credit to our team. It was in

802
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 9: late October and during the course of November that we

803
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 9: started through our drug risk monitoring team to pick up

804
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,919
Speaker 9: your some variation in the numbers. Now, when you see

805
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 9: variation in medicine consumption numbers, you know, the first thing

806
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 9: you think about is you, has consumption really changed? In

807
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 9: other words, of people using more medicines, you know than

808
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 9: what they ordinarily do.

809
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 4: Is so with you.

810
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 9: That investigation and as part of that investigation started to

811
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 9: unearth that this was a deeper issue related to the

812
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 9: accumulation of certain medicines within a certain rule. It was

813
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:57,320
Speaker 9: then if we did an immediate to your system investigation,

814
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 9: we're able to isolate the error your late in November

815
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:05,280
Speaker 9: but early December. We immediately at that stage fixed the eraror,

816
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,319
Speaker 9: but then needed to quantify the impact of the era

817
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 9: on members across the system. You know, so how many

818
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 9: members you know we're impacted? You know, what was the

819
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 9: degree that they were impacted. Incredibly complex analysis that happened

820
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 9: during the course of December, and as soon as we

821
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 9: were able to identify the members impacted together with a

822
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 9: quantum you know, we put out your communication. You know,

823
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 9: we didn't want to leave members in the dark you're

824
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 9: regarding regarding this era, and I think that's the unfortunate

825
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,959
Speaker 9: your timing on this, Stephen. I think a lesson learned

826
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 9: for us is you you can't he was never put

827
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 9: out your bad news over Christmas. You know that was

828
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 9: the wrong time to put out the bad news, but

829
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 9: it was done in good faith. It was done in

830
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 9: good Principlsey wanted to make sure that members went into

831
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 9: twenty twenty six year with a very clear view on

832
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 9: where they stood. I was Stephen, I just wanted one

833
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 9: point you made a little bit earlier on.

834
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 4: And that.

835
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: There was at no.

836
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 9: Point did we communicate to members that their benefits would

837
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 9: be different. You are coming forward and told these overpaid

838
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 9: amounts were settled. I want to categoric do you state

839
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 9: that that is not the truth. So we did not

840
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 9: say that. We said there's been and error, and we

841
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 9: apologize profusely for this era. You we're seeking to make GRF.

842
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 9: We will work with you on amicable terms to resolve

843
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 9: resolve the era. So just I want to make sure

844
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 9: we clear that off.

845
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 2: So I have to say I've been operating for some

846
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 2: time under the assumption that you did only have thirty

847
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 2: days as a medical aid scheme. I'm not an expert

848
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 2: on the medical schemes act. I imagine you are, though, Ron,

849
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 2: and perhaps we've all become a little bit more expert

850
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 2: on it over the last couple of days. I hate

851
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 2: to be so boring. I don't know if you have

852
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,959
Speaker 2: the regulation to hand that says it's that, that says

853
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 2: it's three years. I don't know if you have it

854
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 2: by memory or in front of you in any in

855
00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 2: any way, we.

856
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 9: Are very happy to share share that with you. I

857
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 9: don't have it on hand at the moment and know

858
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 9: it'd be cautious you around quoting that you're from memory directly.

859
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 9: So but we'll share that with you, Stephen. We'll send

860
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 9: you the thirty dar Rold, we'll send you the four months. Well,

861
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 9: we'll send you the three year old. You should interrogate that, Stephen.

862
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 9: We operate a highly highly regulated environment. It works extremely

863
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 9: well in till we keeps us here at the highest

864
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 9: your possible your standards, and we're part of the standards.

865
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 4: We're able to achieve.

866
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 9: On this stephen were our claim system runs at a

867
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 9: nineteen nine point nine percent accuracy rate, and even with

868
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 9: this era, you know, in twenty twenty five, it's still

869
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 9: ninety nine point nine percent your accuracy. So it is

870
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 9: a it's a very very painful error, and we hate

871
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 9: that it's impacted your sixteen thousand members, let alone your

872
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 9: one member, one member, let alone sixteen thousand your members.

873
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 9: But you're in the context of the complete the system

874
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 9: we run and a ninety nine point nine percent your accuracy.

875
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 9: We'll take the learnings from us, we want to continue

876
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 9: to improve your will work with you know, we'll get

877
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 9: the systems, your orders, some quality and controls and all

878
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 9: the rest of it, and we'll work lastly with the

879
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:20,799
Speaker 9: Council for Medical Schemes in providing absolute reassurance to the

880
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 9: Council of Medical Schemes and members.

881
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 2: Doctor ron Whedon, thank you very much. Indeed, I really

882
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 2: do appreciate the CEO of Discovery Health and I'll absolutely

883
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 2: take you up on that offer to get the regulation

884
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 2: I have to say I have been operating under the

885
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 2: assumption that it was just thirty days hearing a completely

886
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 2: different version now from Ron Wheelan on that tonight. Obviously

887
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 2: we'll investigate further. As always, I think I've made the

888
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 2: point in the past the lawyers are the ones who

889
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 2: tend to get rich in these moments. Does that change

890
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 2: your view of Discovery Health and the way you've been

891
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 2: seeing things seven two, seven oh two one, seven oh two.

892
00:46:58,160 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 2: Glad we were able to get both sides on that

893
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 2: you twenty minutes after seven No money show for business books, Well,

894
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 2: one of those books coming along that really does seem

895
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,840
Speaker 2: to have it all in the title. The book is

896
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 2: called Afronomics, a History of Western Ignorance. It's by Bronwan Everell.

897
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:19,879
Speaker 2: Bronwan Williams is the partner with Frux Trends. I'm gonna

898
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 2: get by Bronwin's Madalapia Bronwen Bronwin, Good evening. I mean, a

899
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 2: book summed up by its title, I presume it tells

900
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 2: us quite a lot about how we've misunderstood our own continent.

901
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:32,280
Speaker 14: Well, we'll show you so. I mean, it's it's pretty

902
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,719
Speaker 14: obvious from the title that the author is coming at

903
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 14: this with an agenda and with an extra grant. But

904
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 14: it was a really interesting reason to me. It wasn't

905
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 14: exactly what I expected when I picked up the pages.

906
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 14: It actually reminds me quite a lot of dates. The

907
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 14: first about five thousand years by David Grab one of

908
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,720
Speaker 14: my favorites to get into these sort of really wonky

909
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 14: topics about and it really does cover everything. So it

910
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 14: does cover some of the things that you might expect,

911
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 14: especially from critiques of the with influence in Africa or

912
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 14: global South quotes unquote, looking at, of course critiques of colonization,

913
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 14: but also making some more kind of nuanced arguments about

914
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 14: some of the original sins that have set the African

915
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 14: continent back so obviously compared to other parts of the world. So,

916
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 14: of course we could spend time talking about the of course,

917
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,319
Speaker 14: the resource kind of bates and switched, the place that

918
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 14: ended up with Africa's resources taken away and the richest

919
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 14: landing out somewhere else. But I think the more interesting

920
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 14: arguments in the book growing speak to some of the

921
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 14: narratives and stories about our assumptions about Africa and how

922
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 14: that in turn influences our policies. Even while intended policies

923
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 14: of NGOs and multinationals. It's just a semful thing, and

924
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 14: that some people working in AID actually have good intentions.

925
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:52,759
Speaker 14: But also then, of course the sort of mechanics of

926
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 14: the capitalist, globalist world that we have, and I think

927
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 14: one of the really really interesting ideas to come out

928
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 14: of that is conversation around gifts and reciprocity and how

929
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 14: we keep ledges, not just physical edges where rands and

930
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 14: sense or gold and awe have gone, but also ledges

931
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 14: of debts and what we mean by issues of debts,

932
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 14: which I think is why this book is so particularly

933
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 14: topical given what's going on with sovereign debts worldwide at

934
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:27,760
Speaker 14: the moment and some of the underlying assumptions and world

935
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:31,320
Speaker 14: views that underpin who needs to pay back those debts

936
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 14: and who actually took those debts on. And again, you

937
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 14: could look at that quite literally and quite figurasively, but

938
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 14: it was a really interesting story for those of you

939
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 14: who are interested in economic history but also the future,

940
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 14: in that the incentives we developed, the infensives we expect,

941
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 14: and our expectations around trading around reciprocity, of course, are

942
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 14: going to have influence on all of us, particularly this

943
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 14: very interesting multilateral moment when so many of those agreements,

944
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 14: both the de facto and more explicit, are being renegotiated,

945
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,320
Speaker 14: and there's many lessons you can learn, yeah, in terms

946
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 14: of renegotiating and negotiating more fair deals, not just for

947
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 14: our continent to compare to the rest of the world,

948
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 14: but also more fair deals between citizens and states. Again

949
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 14: super topical with all the gene bid process going on

950
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 14: against governments, often with regards to who's going to pay

951
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 14: back the generational money and the obligations to creditors sitting

952
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 14: on the other side of the world.

953
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 2: So Ronmin, I mean, I'm sure you've seen this debate

954
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 2: that we have in South Africa about our informal economy,

955
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:42,840
Speaker 2: the size of it, yeah, sort of how it works

956
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 2: and the formal economy. Is there an insight from this

957
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 2: book that might illuminate that when you talk about how

958
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 2: we have expectations of people, how our relationships are not

959
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 2: how financial relationships are not just about money and obligations

960
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 2: go in lots of different directions, in lots of different ways.

961
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 2: I mean, they must be insight from the way the

962
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 2: book is understanding our continent and into understanding our own economy.

963
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 14: Yeah, okay, first of all that ever provides over all

964
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 14: herself being not in African or she's spent some time

965
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:13,360
Speaker 14: in Africa, has spent most of her time in the

966
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 14: central and western parts of Africa, so she doesn't really

967
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 14: speak too much to the style African situation, which I

968
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 14: think we all do know slightly slightly different to the

969
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 14: rest of the continent when you get into the minutia

970
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 14: of how the informal and formal economy all kind of

971
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 14: works together. But yes, there are some insights, yet not

972
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 14: direct ones. It's certainly ones that are either reader can

973
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 14: extrapolate there. And one of the things that comes to

974
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 14: here and also again in Death the first five thousand Years,

975
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 14: the other book I come referring to, is how, particularly

976
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 14: in African traditional society, before you know, colonization got here

977
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 14: and you surved essentially reciprocity based society, norms with the

978
00:51:56,080 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 14: blunt instrument of the law and the contract soerly have

979
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 14: parallels to our own informal economy here. So one of

980
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 14: the things she speaks about is exactly that how deals

981
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 14: that are done with the expectation of reciprocity and the

982
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 14: expectation of I give to you today, but tomorrow I'm

983
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 14: going to get something back that might not be formalized

984
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 14: by a contract, that could have arbitrage and then become exploited,

985
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 14: which is exactly what happened when you have asymmetrical information

986
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:30,760
Speaker 14: when outsiders come into an insider based economy and try

987
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 14: to formalize it with contracts and laws and black and

988
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 14: white type red tape, use lots and lots of colors

989
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 14: in the next step, and I certainly see very similar

990
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 14: things happening with some of the both well intentioned and

991
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 14: more cynical moves to formalize or less charitably kind of

992
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 14: recolonize parts of the informal economy. But as you and

993
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 14: I know many of melisteners who too growing a lot

994
00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 14: faster on the formal parts of our economy. Right, So

995
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 14: there there's an instance into to go in and use

996
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 14: sophisticated law and contract to effectively negotiate a better deal

997
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 14: and parties that have negotiated between themselves when those negotiations

998
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 14: are based on norms, on trust, and on personal reputations. Again,

999
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:22,399
Speaker 14: a very interesting idea when you compare that to our

1000
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 14: cryptifications of our economy and trying to replace like smart contracts,

1001
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 14: even with negotiates, the verbal contracts that remove nuance and

1002
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 14: replace it with rule buy law.

1003
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 2: So interesting, Sure, we've got we've got just a minute left.

1004
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 2: Is there anything in the book that gives us a

1005
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 2: clue as to how to I was going to say,

1006
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 2: grow the economy, but that's a very sort of Western

1007
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 2: way of looking at it, to get more incomes into

1008
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 2: more homes.

1009
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:54,400
Speaker 14: Not really, No, this is an economic historian. But there

1010
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 14: are certainly cruises to help to negotiate better deal for

1011
00:53:57,600 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 14: ourselves and our descendants based on a thorough understanding of obligations,

1012
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 14: both explicit and implicit, of other counter parties across the world.

1013
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. Indeed, Ronwin Williams really to appreciate

1014
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,759
Speaker 2: it a partner at fuck Flux Trends, and he made

1015
00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 2: a mistake there. The book is called Aphronomics. History of

1016
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 2: Western Ignorance is by Bronwyn Ever all helps you to

1017
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:27,360
Speaker 2: get a deeper understanding than of our continent and our society.

1018
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:32,879
Speaker 2: Twenty seven minutes after seven The Money Show with will

1019
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:34,759
Speaker 2: you heard doctor ron wheel In a few moments ago

1020
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 2: the CEO at Discovery Health and what looks like a

1021
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:39,640
Speaker 2: big climb down, I've been making the point out a

1022
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 2: completely different understanding of the law. I thought there really

1023
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 2: was only thirty days for medical aid schemes to dispute

1024
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:48,839
Speaker 2: the payments that they had made. His view is that,

1025
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 2: in fact there is three years. A voice note coming

1026
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 2: through on that on seven two seven two one seven

1027
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 2: o two.

1028
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:58,240
Speaker 1: The Money Show, How I Make My Money.

1029
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 2: Well, whenever I I feel the need to understand what's

1030
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 2: going on in our economy and I'm looking for a

1031
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 2: rational voice, one of the people I speak to, and

1032
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 2: I'm so privileged to speak to, is doctor Azar Jimmy.

1033
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 2: He's the chief economist at Econometrics. He has a deep

1034
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 2: understanding of our economy, understands its history, and also I

1035
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 2: think as an understanding of what its future directions may be.

1036
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:20,240
Speaker 2: So I'm very pleased to tell you that he's agreed

1037
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:23,240
Speaker 2: to speak to you tonight about his own career. Azar.

1038
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 2: Good evening, and thank you so much for giving us

1039
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 2: so much of your time tonight.

1040
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 15: Thank Steven, and thank you for the opportunity.

1041
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 2: When we hear you as an economist, I suppose we

1042
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 2: never stopped to think about how you got there. You know,

1043
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 2: how it was that you ended up doing this was

1044
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 2: there always an interest in what was going on around

1045
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:47,840
Speaker 2: you with a kind of math's brain attached to it.

1046
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 15: There was actually from the time that I was finishing

1047
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:54,400
Speaker 15: university there was a boom in the stock market, the

1048
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 15: nineteen sixty seventy sixty nine bull market, and I was

1049
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:04,239
Speaker 15: fascinated by this. But at the time I had to

1050
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 15: choose a career, and I had decided, and I was

1051
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 15: awarded a scholarship by Old Mutual to become an actuary.

1052
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:17,839
Speaker 15: But during the course of my degree, I actually did

1053
00:56:17,840 --> 00:56:22,319
Speaker 15: a BSc. In mathematics and mathematical statistics, but I had

1054
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 15: to do We were given some extra art subjects that

1055
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 15: we could choose, and I chose economics, and I was

1056
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:33,640
Speaker 15: very fortunate that I was doing it part time because

1057
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 15: the part time lecturer was brilliant. I fell in love

1058
00:56:36,560 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 15: with the subject almost from the day one, so that

1059
00:56:40,520 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 15: when I actually graduated and I decided it was much

1060
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 15: more fun than becoming an actuary. But actually my very

1061
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 15: first job that I applied for and got was as

1062
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 15: an investment analyst with a bank called send Bank at

1063
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:03,239
Speaker 15: the time, and that gave me a wonderful background to

1064
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:07,879
Speaker 15: the investment world and to economics. More generally, having completed that,

1065
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 15: I decided that I really wanted to deal with the

1066
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 15: broader economy rather than with analyzing specific companies individually.

1067
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 2: And while you were growing up as I mean, what

1068
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 2: kind of community were you growing up in? Our country

1069
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 2: is so diverse and we have so many different types

1070
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 2: of community.

1071
00:57:28,480 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 15: My community is very much one that you personally can relate. Stephen.

1072
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:36,440
Speaker 15: You were at Kywards. I was at Pratorial Tie, and

1073
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 15: you know, the camp were with me at the time,

1074
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 15: Ian and Bernard and not Musky came Nater And it

1075
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 15: was a fairly basic but very sound education that I

1076
00:57:54,120 --> 00:58:00,280
Speaker 15: received at school. But it wasn't anything that would would

1077
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:04,400
Speaker 15: have necessarily led me to thinking about the business world

1078
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 15: or becoming an economist. I only learned about becoming an

1079
00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 15: economist really whilst I was at university doing the BC.

1080
00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:17,920
Speaker 2: And I mean to do a BSc on mathematical statistics.

1081
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 2: I mean, maths already must have been a big pool

1082
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:23,400
Speaker 2: for you. I mean, I remember at school knowing some

1083
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 2: kids who did maths for fun. You know. I could

1084
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 2: never get my head around that. I was too busy

1085
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:30,160
Speaker 2: at my nose in the history book that I didn't

1086
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:34,920
Speaker 2: need to read. I mean, was there something about numbers

1087
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 2: at an early age, from.

1088
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 15: A very early age, I've always loved numbers. The amazing

1089
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:44,160
Speaker 15: thing is that it's numbers rather than letters. The moment

1090
00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:47,760
Speaker 15: that numbers became letters and I had to relate to

1091
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 15: one to the other, I just didn't get to that

1092
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 15: quite as well. But I do love numbers and I

1093
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,600
Speaker 15: play with them in my mind all the time, and

1094
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 15: it's very useful as an economist to have that attribute others, say.

1095
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 2: Studying at VITS, I mean, I've spoken to so many

1096
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:11,560
Speaker 2: people in this slot and our shape shift slot, and

1097
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:14,439
Speaker 2: probably more of them went to FITS than anywhere else.

1098
00:59:14,560 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 2: I hope you see is listening when I say that.

1099
00:59:17,840 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 2: And people have such vastly different experiences depending on where

1100
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 2: they came from, depending on the time there were advits.

1101
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:29,040
Speaker 2: I think FITS now is probably much freer than it

1102
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 2: was in the nineteen sixties. I would imagine it was

1103
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 2: quite different than even though the sixties were sort of

1104
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:36,960
Speaker 2: the sixties politically, it was a very different time. What

1105
00:59:37,080 --> 00:59:39,000
Speaker 2: was it like for you? I mean, was there a

1106
00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 2: sort of intellectual ferment. Was it just a place you

1107
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 2: went to for class, or was it something that had

1108
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:47,200
Speaker 2: a bigger impact on you? In some way, I.

1109
00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:50,800
Speaker 15: Think it had a broader impact. I was also very

1110
00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:54,000
Speaker 15: much involved in sport in rugby there. But it was

1111
00:59:54,120 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 15: very fortunate that I had as my mentor whom the

1112
00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 15: person that I regard as probably South Africa's finest ever

1113
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:07,920
Speaker 15: economics academic, professor Ludwig Lachmann, and he was from the

1114
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:11,520
Speaker 15: Old Austrian school. His own mentor was Friedrich von Hayek,

1115
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 15: and so I really did get a tremendous background in

1116
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:23,720
Speaker 15: qualitative analysis economic analysis, ironically in a world that was

1117
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 15: becoming ever more quantitative in its economic analysis. And I

1118
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 15: think the mixture of the two that I think is

1119
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 15: an important strength to have as an economist.

1120
01:00:36,760 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 2: You went from there to the London School of Economics,

1121
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:45,280
Speaker 2: and by then obviously your direction was pretty set, and

1122
01:00:45,320 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 2: you did your master's and your doctorate there, going to

1123
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:50,439
Speaker 2: a foreign country, going to Britain as a younger person,

1124
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:53,360
Speaker 2: as a person from South Africa, I mean the LSE

1125
01:00:54,080 --> 01:00:57,800
Speaker 2: then as now had the most has the most amazing reputation.

1126
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:03,200
Speaker 15: It was an an extraordinary experience because it brought me

1127
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:08,160
Speaker 15: down from having been a top honor student in South Africa.

1128
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:14,760
Speaker 15: I was surrounded by many youngsters from all around the world,

1129
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 15: and many of whom could hardly speak English. And yet

1130
01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 15: we're a down side more bright than I was, and

1131
01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:24,400
Speaker 15: it was quite a challenge. But we had some extraordinary

1132
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 15: lecturers as well who are world famous. And from that

1133
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:33,560
Speaker 15: point of view, I suppose it was the quality of

1134
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:39,160
Speaker 15: the intellectual discourse that was quite amazing, but at a

1135
01:01:39,200 --> 01:01:44,200
Speaker 15: different level from what I had had here at undergraduate level.

1136
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:48,440
Speaker 2: So you come back to South Africa and in nineteen eighty five,

1137
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 2: I think it was you founded Economy Etricts. Nineteen eighty

1138
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 2: five you founded Econometrics. That's a little while ago now,

1139
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 2: I'm afraid to remind you as well.

1140
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:01,640
Speaker 15: It was forty years.

1141
01:02:02,480 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 2: What were you intending to do? I mean South Africa

1142
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 2: then a very different place to where it is now,

1143
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:09,400
Speaker 2: quite a frightening place. I mean, I remember the phrase

1144
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 2: in the business news in those days if I was

1145
01:02:11,840 --> 01:02:14,240
Speaker 2: allowed to stay up that late, you had the rand

1146
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:18,160
Speaker 2: and the financial rand. I mean, the economy was completely different,

1147
01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 2: and the way we understood it was very different too.

1148
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:25,600
Speaker 15: It has evolved amazingly, but even at that time it

1149
01:02:25,760 --> 01:02:29,720
Speaker 15: was incredibly interesting. I'd make the decision to come back

1150
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:32,680
Speaker 15: to South Africa the week of the Rubicon speech and

1151
01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 15: people said, oh you nuts, and the rand was plummeting.

1152
01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:38,600
Speaker 15: It was just that I could not bear the thought

1153
01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:42,240
Speaker 15: of spending the rest of my life in the UK,

1154
01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:48,040
Speaker 15: and when this country had such wonderful people, was such

1155
01:02:48,040 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 15: a beautiful country and had such wonderful weather, and I

1156
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:57,520
Speaker 15: couldn't bear the thought of spending my life outside of

1157
01:02:57,560 --> 01:03:02,200
Speaker 15: this country. And I returned thinking that my career would

1158
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 15: be boring.

1159
01:03:03,200 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 8: It was.

1160
01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:07,960
Speaker 15: On the contrary, it was quite dramatically interesting from the

1161
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:11,880
Speaker 15: Low Daigo part of it, because I was so well

1162
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:15,720
Speaker 15: received back in the country. I think having a doctorate

1163
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:19,400
Speaker 15: from the UK gave me a head start at the

1164
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 15: time because there were not many people who did have

1165
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 15: that at the time. But there was a lot of

1166
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:30,560
Speaker 15: respect for me at a very early stage, which I

1167
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:36,600
Speaker 15: really acknowledged and has. It's something I'm very grateful to

1168
01:03:36,720 --> 01:03:39,520
Speaker 15: South African business for ever since then.

1169
01:03:40,320 --> 01:03:43,240
Speaker 2: So you start econometrics, and I mean, I don't know

1170
01:03:43,320 --> 01:03:45,480
Speaker 2: how this works as are, but somehow you have to

1171
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:48,520
Speaker 2: make money, so someone has to pay you to study

1172
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:51,520
Speaker 2: our economy. You would have to get clients.

1173
01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 15: It was very tough. It was a case of building

1174
01:03:55,600 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 15: a marketing team to go and sell out. This is

1175
01:04:01,520 --> 01:04:09,040
Speaker 15: my I have a couple belief one who was whine

1176
01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:17,040
Speaker 15: and as a crystal with me part time, and then

1177
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 15: got another few others such as Michilbster, And we really

1178
01:04:22,120 --> 01:04:25,000
Speaker 15: did have to work very hard to try and persuade

1179
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 15: companies that they needed to receive our economic analysis because

1180
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 15: it was very outside of us and that we were independent,

1181
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:40,280
Speaker 15: and we were not getting to spread the word that

1182
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:44,400
Speaker 15: the government at the time was one to want to believe,

1183
01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:51,440
Speaker 15: and it was. It was the battle, but little by

1184
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:57,440
Speaker 15: little it really worked as well. But unfortunately it's become

1185
01:04:57,560 --> 01:05:02,440
Speaker 15: very commoditized since then, and every bank then climbed off

1186
01:05:02,480 --> 01:05:05,560
Speaker 15: the band wagon, and a lot of banks approached me

1187
01:05:05,680 --> 01:05:09,920
Speaker 15: to become the chief economist, but I was insistant on

1188
01:05:10,120 --> 01:05:14,840
Speaker 15: maintaining in the independence of the Econometics that had remained

1189
01:05:15,320 --> 01:05:20,560
Speaker 15: a strongly and fiercefully independent ever since then, with no

1190
01:05:20,760 --> 01:05:26,480
Speaker 15: major shareholder that would distort its independence.

1191
01:05:26,920 --> 01:05:29,560
Speaker 2: We're speaking to doctor Azar Jimin. We're talking about his

1192
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:33,520
Speaker 2: career this evening on The Money Show. It's twelve minutes

1193
01:05:33,560 --> 01:05:34,919
Speaker 2: now to eight o'clock.

1194
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 1: The Money Show, How I Make My Money?

1195
01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 2: Ten minutes now to eight the time speaking to doctor

1196
01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:45,360
Speaker 2: Azar Jimin the CEO of Econometrics about his career as

1197
01:05:45,520 --> 01:05:47,320
Speaker 2: I think we've got you on a stronger line. Now

1198
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:53,120
Speaker 2: you were starting a consultancy about our economy. You were

1199
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:56,560
Speaker 2: promising independence, you would give people an independent assessment of

1200
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:59,640
Speaker 2: what was going on in the economy. And we now

1201
01:05:59,720 --> 01:06:03,160
Speaker 2: have so much economic information in South Africa and we're

1202
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 2: in a very kind of transparent era in South Africa.

1203
01:06:06,640 --> 01:06:09,680
Speaker 2: But we weren't always and we certainly weren't at that time.

1204
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:12,240
Speaker 2: And there are many people, many powerful people who wouldn't

1205
01:06:12,240 --> 01:06:13,840
Speaker 2: want you to know what was going on. I mean,

1206
01:06:13,840 --> 01:06:16,080
Speaker 2: that's why we had such a thing as the financial brand.

1207
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:19,120
Speaker 2: Was it harder to actually get the real facts and

1208
01:06:19,160 --> 01:06:21,120
Speaker 2: figures that you needed then in the nineteen.

1209
01:06:20,920 --> 01:06:25,360
Speaker 5: Eighties, undoubtedly it was much harder, but that is what

1210
01:06:25,440 --> 01:06:29,840
Speaker 5: we specialized at that stage because there was so few

1211
01:06:29,960 --> 01:06:35,800
Speaker 5: The only other independent well and other body who were

1212
01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:39,240
Speaker 5: not entirely independent, but who were doing the kind of

1213
01:06:39,240 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 5: thing we were doing was the Bureau for Economic Research,

1214
01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:45,320
Speaker 5: who were still fairly active. It was only subsequently that

1215
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:49,080
Speaker 5: the banks made so much money that they didn't know

1216
01:06:49,120 --> 01:06:51,320
Speaker 5: what to do with it and use that money to

1217
01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:56,800
Speaker 5: start establishing huge economics departments to be able to use

1218
01:06:56,880 --> 01:07:02,720
Speaker 5: those as lost leaders to advertise as their general brands.

1219
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:07,640
Speaker 5: And that has obviously they've taken a lot of the

1220
01:07:07,720 --> 01:07:12,760
Speaker 5: ideas that the br and we ourselves presented and now

1221
01:07:13,160 --> 01:07:17,800
Speaker 5: providing a lot of that information free of charge, and

1222
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:21,600
Speaker 5: that of course makes it fairly difficult to try and

1223
01:07:21,680 --> 01:07:28,120
Speaker 5: compete against them whilst trying to charge for what we

1224
01:07:28,160 --> 01:07:30,920
Speaker 5: are doing. And the only way to do so is

1225
01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 5: to try and persuade people and businesses that the quality

1226
01:07:35,600 --> 01:07:41,680
Speaker 5: of what we produce and the independence comes at a premium.

1227
01:07:42,440 --> 01:07:45,000
Speaker 2: When you look at everything that you've sort of followed

1228
01:07:45,040 --> 01:07:48,880
Speaker 2: over the years, so I mean you were starting literally

1229
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:51,280
Speaker 2: as the steady of emergency was beginning. Then there was

1230
01:07:51,680 --> 01:07:55,560
Speaker 2: the release of Nelson Mandela and the rise of democracy,

1231
01:07:55,760 --> 01:07:58,600
Speaker 2: thank goodness, the economic boom at the time, during the

1232
01:07:58,600 --> 01:08:03,840
Speaker 2: Embarger years, the globe financial crisis, the state capture era,

1233
01:08:03,840 --> 01:08:06,080
Speaker 2: and I remember speaking to you fairly often then you

1234
01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 2: know you'd have a reshuffle, You wouldn't know your finance

1235
01:08:08,280 --> 01:08:11,320
Speaker 2: minster was you look at the Trump era and now

1236
01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:16,040
Speaker 2: were there moments when you were scared for our economy?

1237
01:08:16,120 --> 01:08:18,080
Speaker 2: Is anything that stands out might have been something else?

1238
01:08:18,080 --> 01:08:20,800
Speaker 2: I haven't mentioned that made you think, oh, wow, this

1239
01:08:21,120 --> 01:08:24,320
Speaker 2: really is very bad news for our economy or the

1240
01:08:24,320 --> 01:08:25,120
Speaker 2: global economy.

1241
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:29,559
Speaker 5: I have been scared about our economy for many years,

1242
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:32,479
Speaker 5: but have always had a little bit of hope in

1243
01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:35,640
Speaker 5: that the thing that has scared me most and continues

1244
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 5: to scare me is something that is very topical today,

1245
01:08:38,600 --> 01:08:42,640
Speaker 5: and that is the relative lack of decent education of

1246
01:08:42,720 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 5: the majority of the youth in this country and the

1247
01:08:45,640 --> 01:08:50,840
Speaker 5: manner in which this is contributing towards arising inequality. But

1248
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:55,639
Speaker 5: at this stage, right now, I'm actually a little more

1249
01:08:55,960 --> 01:09:01,040
Speaker 5: placated about South Africa's economic situation compared with my concerns

1250
01:09:01,120 --> 01:09:06,120
Speaker 5: relating to the world economy and the massive increase in

1251
01:09:06,120 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 5: inequality that is taking place globally that is creating a

1252
01:09:10,640 --> 01:09:17,880
Speaker 5: whole host of polarization politically and geographically throughout the world.

1253
01:09:17,960 --> 01:09:19,920
Speaker 5: And I don't know where this is going to end.

1254
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:22,880
Speaker 5: And it goes hand in hand with the stock market

1255
01:09:22,920 --> 01:09:29,320
Speaker 5: that is booming beyond all logic in many ways and

1256
01:09:29,439 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 5: is contribute is exacerbating this growing inequality between the haves

1257
01:09:34,320 --> 01:09:35,120
Speaker 5: and the have nots.

1258
01:09:36,160 --> 01:09:38,439
Speaker 2: I mean, this is one of the things that you know,

1259
01:09:38,479 --> 01:09:41,120
Speaker 2: I remember last year we spent some time on this

1260
01:09:41,200 --> 01:09:43,160
Speaker 2: on The Money Show, and I mean I see once

1261
01:09:43,200 --> 01:09:46,160
Speaker 2: a week, well, so excuse me, once a week or

1262
01:09:46,200 --> 01:09:48,800
Speaker 2: so someone will write a piece, an analysis piece about this.

1263
01:09:49,320 --> 01:09:51,880
Speaker 2: We have an economy, not just us, but a global

1264
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:54,400
Speaker 2: economy that seems to be in a dire state, and

1265
01:09:54,479 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 2: yet stock markets are booming. I mean, things have become

1266
01:09:57,360 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 2: sort of crazily decoupled.

1267
01:10:00,360 --> 01:10:02,840
Speaker 5: And at the heart of this is the fact that

1268
01:10:03,280 --> 01:10:08,760
Speaker 5: global governments, are backed by central banks, are making it

1269
01:10:08,840 --> 01:10:13,240
Speaker 5: easier and easier to access money. The global money supply

1270
01:10:13,600 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 5: just keeps expanding, and money is losing its value. And

1271
01:10:17,640 --> 01:10:21,000
Speaker 5: my biggest alibi at the moment to explain that things

1272
01:10:21,040 --> 01:10:25,040
Speaker 5: are not as they should be is the price of gold.

1273
01:10:25,240 --> 01:10:29,920
Speaker 5: Why is this so called barbaric relic that Canes and

1274
01:10:30,040 --> 01:10:34,599
Speaker 5: termed it shining at this late stage the way it's doing,

1275
01:10:34,920 --> 01:10:38,400
Speaker 5: it's telling us that money is losing its value and

1276
01:10:38,439 --> 01:10:41,280
Speaker 5: that the only way to protect yourself is to have

1277
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:42,599
Speaker 5: some hard asset.

1278
01:10:45,320 --> 01:10:48,920
Speaker 2: So I mean, I have asked you a question so

1279
01:10:49,080 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 2: often that I sometimes feel bad because I think you

1280
01:10:52,320 --> 01:10:54,080
Speaker 2: must be bored with it. And the question is always

1281
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 2: the same, which is how can we grow sow? Africa

1282
01:10:56,600 --> 01:10:58,840
Speaker 2: is economy. Do you ever get tired of being asked

1283
01:10:58,880 --> 01:11:01,400
Speaker 2: that question? Because I'd imagine every interview you do ends

1284
01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:04,439
Speaker 2: like that, because it is the only question that really matters.

1285
01:11:04,479 --> 01:11:08,040
Speaker 2: How do we get more income into more people, into

1286
01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:09,080
Speaker 2: more homes.

1287
01:11:10,360 --> 01:11:13,519
Speaker 5: You're absolutely right in asking that question, and that's what

1288
01:11:13,600 --> 01:11:17,559
Speaker 5: everyone wants to know. And the answer there is no

1289
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:20,360
Speaker 5: simple answer, but I've given you one, and that is

1290
01:11:20,880 --> 01:11:25,920
Speaker 5: a massive improvement in education and especially in the STEM

1291
01:11:26,040 --> 01:11:31,520
Speaker 5: areas science, technology, engineering, and mathematics that is required. Secondly,

1292
01:11:32,400 --> 01:11:38,599
Speaker 5: the structure of the economy needs to be liberated away

1293
01:11:38,680 --> 01:11:46,439
Speaker 5: from domination by government, big business, and powerful unions to

1294
01:11:46,520 --> 01:11:50,000
Speaker 5: bring in small business more and more actively into play,

1295
01:11:50,360 --> 01:11:53,320
Speaker 5: and that goes hand in hand with education, but it

1296
01:11:53,479 --> 01:11:59,879
Speaker 5: also requires political will on the part of everyone involved. Thirdly,

1297
01:12:00,760 --> 01:12:05,360
Speaker 5: there is this Unfortunately we do have the legacies of apartheid,

1298
01:12:05,479 --> 01:12:09,600
Speaker 5: spatial inequalities that are making it more and more difficult

1299
01:12:09,720 --> 01:12:13,760
Speaker 5: for people to establish their own businesses. But we have

1300
01:12:13,920 --> 01:12:19,360
Speaker 5: far too much government regulation that is crippling the ability

1301
01:12:19,439 --> 01:12:23,639
Speaker 5: of businesses to thrive. And if we could unleash our

1302
01:12:24,000 --> 01:12:28,599
Speaker 5: entrepreneurial spirit, I think this country has a massive future

1303
01:12:28,640 --> 01:12:31,600
Speaker 5: ahead of it. I saw it in the sixties, and

1304
01:12:31,760 --> 01:12:34,040
Speaker 5: I would like to think that I could see it

1305
01:12:34,080 --> 01:12:37,599
Speaker 5: in the future. We're going through a difficult stage. The

1306
01:12:37,640 --> 01:12:41,200
Speaker 5: Government of National Unity seems to be starting to come

1307
01:12:41,240 --> 01:12:45,000
Speaker 5: to grips with some of the issues, but not all

1308
01:12:45,040 --> 01:12:49,840
Speaker 5: of them. But I do believe that little by little,

1309
01:12:50,080 --> 01:12:53,800
Speaker 5: improving the infrastructure of the economy and addressing the other

1310
01:12:53,920 --> 01:12:57,679
Speaker 5: issues that I'd mentioned, also trying to get on top

1311
01:12:57,720 --> 01:13:02,200
Speaker 5: of crime an Unfortunately, criminal activity has also become conflated

1312
01:13:02,280 --> 01:13:08,360
Speaker 5: with the whole concept of empowerment that has been implemented

1313
01:13:08,400 --> 01:13:12,360
Speaker 5: in the wrong way, and we've got to try and

1314
01:13:12,400 --> 01:13:16,599
Speaker 5: sort that tension out as well.

1315
01:13:17,640 --> 01:13:20,400
Speaker 2: We've got five seconds left. But when people ask me

1316
01:13:20,720 --> 01:13:22,200
Speaker 2: how can you be a journalist for so long, I

1317
01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:24,200
Speaker 2: say it's because the story of South Africa is so

1318
01:13:24,360 --> 01:13:26,920
Speaker 2: unbelievably fascinating. Is it the same for you?

1319
01:13:28,439 --> 01:13:32,400
Speaker 5: It's absolutely fascinating. I have so enjoyed my job throughout

1320
01:13:32,400 --> 01:13:35,840
Speaker 5: my life. That is why I should be retired by

1321
01:13:35,920 --> 01:13:38,519
Speaker 5: now that I'm still doing it, because I love it.

1322
01:13:39,120 --> 01:13:41,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, as aar Jamin, so wonderful to speak to you.

1323
01:13:41,560 --> 01:13:43,479
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your time. I really do

1324
01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:46,680
Speaker 2: appreciate it. The CEO at Econometrics and the art. The

1325
01:13:46,720 --> 01:13:49,600
Speaker 2: story of South Africa's economy is so interesting, so we

1326
01:13:49,640 --> 01:13:51,920
Speaker 2: talk about it for two hours tonight. Azar, I really

1327
01:13:51,920 --> 01:13:54,320
Speaker 2: appreciate you taking the time to speak to us tonight.

1328
01:13:54,360 --> 01:13:55,200
Speaker 2: Thank you so much