1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,400
Speaker 1: Well, from the Moon to all the problems on planet Earth.

2
00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:07,040
Speaker 1: Very interesting piece on the website The Conversation dot com.

3
00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:09,880
Speaker 1: I'll give you a fuller reference to it, but the

4
00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:14,160
Speaker 1: headline says why second global shipping choke point could soon

5
00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:16,560
Speaker 1: live up to its name as the Gate of Tears.

6
00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:19,560
Speaker 1: Now a couple of days back, I think about ten

7
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,880
Speaker 1: twelve days ago, we focus on the Strait of Hormuz

8
00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,960
Speaker 1: and how central and crucial it was, how narrow it

9
00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,960
Speaker 1: becomes at a certain point which allows literally for two

10
00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,280
Speaker 1: ships with a two kilometer kind of middle monarchy in

11
00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,480
Speaker 1: the middle of ocean where the two ships can sell

12
00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,360
Speaker 1: safely and run a risk of banging into each other.

13
00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:45,639
Speaker 1: This is highlighting an area further south. It's not on

14
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,839
Speaker 1: the Mediterranean Sea, but it is south of the Sewers Canal,

15
00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,680
Speaker 1: and if you can picture the Horn of Africa, the

16
00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:58,160
Speaker 1: bub L Mandeb Straight also known as the Gate of Tears,

17
00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,960
Speaker 1: is about thirty kilometers wide. It's between Yemen in the

18
00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,920
Speaker 1: Middle East on the eastern side and Djibouti to the west,

19
00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,240
Speaker 1: which of course is on our own continent. The problem

20
00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,000
Speaker 1: is if that becomes some kind of blocked off point

21
00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,880
Speaker 1: as well, the implications for maritime trade. Are huge ships

22
00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,880
Speaker 1: going through the Sewers Canal would ordinarily find their way

23
00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,559
Speaker 1: into the Indian Ocean, and then they can head south

24
00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:27,920
Speaker 1: for various parts of Asia, southeast for Australia, or they

25
00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,440
Speaker 1: can head south and go along the coast of Africa.

26
00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,320
Speaker 1: So how serious of a threat is this? Because in

27
00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:35,880
Speaker 1: Yemen there is the government and then there are the

28
00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,800
Speaker 1: Hooties who are strongly aligned with the Iran and have

29
00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:42,840
Speaker 1: played some part already in the conflict currently going on.

30
00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,840
Speaker 1: Timothy Walker is a senior research on maritime security at

31
00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:51,120
Speaker 1: the Institute for Security Studies and joins us now. Mister Walker,

32
00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,720
Speaker 1: welcome and thanks very much for giving us your time.

33
00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,840
Speaker 1: How serious a problem is this? Now? How big a

34
00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:57,920
Speaker 1: problem could have become?

35
00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:01,440
Speaker 2: Good afternoon, Thanks for having me on the show, and

36
00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:06,640
Speaker 2: good afternoon to everyone listening. It's pretty finely poised, honest

37
00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,000
Speaker 2: right now. It's been that way for a few weeks,

38
00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:14,359
Speaker 2: and I think shipping viewer shipping researchers have been studying

39
00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,920
Speaker 2: this section of the Red Sea above a Men district

40
00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:20,000
Speaker 2: for Karawa. The Huti, as you mentioned, have been very

41
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,760
Speaker 2: prominent in the area for the last couple of years

42
00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,960
Speaker 2: in terms of disruption to shipping, disruption to a safe navigation,

43
00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,560
Speaker 2: and they're widely acknowledged and attributed as an ally of

44
00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,440
Speaker 2: Iran somebody who's been supplied by them in the past,

45
00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:39,320
Speaker 2: and there's many many kind of of their policy interests coincide.

46
00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,000
Speaker 2: So the fact that they haven't so far come to

47
00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 2: either Iran's aid or Iran hasn't asked them in some

48
00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:49,079
Speaker 2: way to assist in their struggle by further halting shipping

49
00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,800
Speaker 2: in that part of the world, it's struck a lot

50
00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,240
Speaker 2: of people, as you know, quite curious, because it did

51
00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,720
Speaker 2: seem quite an open shutcase that they would be attacking

52
00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,960
Speaker 2: shipping in the region as they've done for the last

53
00:02:59,040 --> 00:02:59,919
Speaker 2: two or three years.

54
00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,440
Speaker 1: I mean, I suppose, and I don't know how many

55
00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:05,520
Speaker 1: years we need to go back for this to have

56
00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:07,840
Speaker 1: been true. But one might have said, well, the Hooties

57
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:11,359
Speaker 1: don't have an air force. The Babbel Mandev, if I've

58
00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:16,040
Speaker 1: said that correctly, straight is thirty kilometers wide, so it's

59
00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,920
Speaker 1: not as narrow as the Strait of Homos. But of

60
00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 1: course in the age of drones, I would think air

61
00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:26,399
Speaker 1: forces are neither here nor there in this particular regard.

62
00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,720
Speaker 2: You're absolutely right drones and the HOOTI also have used

63
00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,880
Speaker 2: several missiles in the past as well, the lifting missiles,

64
00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:37,640
Speaker 2: which are very difficult to intersept so the reaction time

65
00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,960
Speaker 2: often for a ship, even if I'm talking here from

66
00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:42,760
Speaker 2: military ship and that alone a cargo ship. If you're

67
00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:44,960
Speaker 2: on a cargo ship, it might be very difficult to

68
00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,120
Speaker 2: impossible to do anything about a drone or a missile

69
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,200
Speaker 2: coming towards you. But to be able to react in

70
00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:54,640
Speaker 2: such a confined sea space with enough time to identify

71
00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,520
Speaker 2: the threat, to plot it and to launch your countermeasure

72
00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,400
Speaker 2: is incredibly fine. And the risk therefore is a judge

73
00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:06,000
Speaker 2: too great to send vulnerable shipping into that area when

74
00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,920
Speaker 2: the coastal force operates that kind of weaponry. When they

75
00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:11,680
Speaker 2: do operate that kind of weaponry and have used in

76
00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:14,640
Speaker 2: the past, there's no sometimes no knowing when it might

77
00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:18,000
Speaker 2: what might trigger a resurgence of that right attack, And

78
00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,000
Speaker 2: most of the vessels which are being used for protection

79
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,279
Speaker 2: are absent from the area now or are you deployed elsewhere.

80
00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:27,600
Speaker 2: Because the Americans, for instance, had a fleet and a

81
00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,240
Speaker 2: substantial presence in the area which is now pretty much

82
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,159
Speaker 2: plugged into what's going on in Iran. The Europeans have

83
00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,520
Speaker 2: continued to patrol up and down there as well, but

84
00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,839
Speaker 2: they often have countermeasures. They haven't had to fire missiles

85
00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,240
Speaker 2: for Quadajuana, but the countermeasures they have anti drone missiles

86
00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,760
Speaker 2: cost sometimes ten even one hundred times more expensive than

87
00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,039
Speaker 2: the actual drone itself. So the UTI with very cheap

88
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:53,120
Speaker 2: weaponry can actually deplete the very expensive weaponry countermeasures of

89
00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,760
Speaker 2: anybody opposing them and still have enough resources or weapons

90
00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,320
Speaker 2: left over to threaten shipping again.

91
00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:01,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm just looking at the map, and we've

92
00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:05,320
Speaker 1: been focused very much on Saudi Arabia, but of course

93
00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:09,240
Speaker 1: Oman would be sending a lot of its oil that way.

94
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:14,279
Speaker 1: I would imagine through the Red Sea up and past

95
00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,360
Speaker 1: Jedda and then through the sewer's canal to, for example,

96
00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,400
Speaker 1: a European end client. I want to step back from

97
00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,359
Speaker 1: the specifics here, Timothy Walkin, get your view on this.

98
00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:29,400
Speaker 1: I mean, this conflict seems to me to be I

99
00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,760
Speaker 1: wouldn't saund necessarily unprecedented, but it does seem to be

100
00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:40,000
Speaker 1: uniquely focused on control of waterways, with that dictating political

101
00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:45,640
Speaker 1: and military decisions as much as possibly even more than

102
00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,760
Speaker 1: you know, the use of weaponry is this something new

103
00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,479
Speaker 1: or is it something just specific to the geography of

104
00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:55,200
Speaker 1: where the conflict is taking place.

105
00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,320
Speaker 2: Well, the geography you points out quite rightly. The geography

106
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:03,400
Speaker 2: is really being leveraged by the defensive side in this

107
00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:06,160
Speaker 2: in regard for Iran with the straight of hor moves

108
00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:11,160
Speaker 2: and the Huti with the bubb a mendeb straight. When

109
00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,599
Speaker 2: you have such a confined sea space where all the

110
00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:17,960
Speaker 2: ships looking to enter or exit that particular narrow straight

111
00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:20,920
Speaker 2: sort of bunching or bottle necking up on either side,

112
00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,360
Speaker 2: you really have what they call a choke point. And

113
00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:25,719
Speaker 2: the more a pressure you ply on that choke point

114
00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,720
Speaker 2: are able to stop shipping even going through, the more

115
00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:32,680
Speaker 2: you have that kind of strategic effect on your adversary.

116
00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:37,120
Speaker 2: So the strategic importance of above amendev has been recognized

117
00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,279
Speaker 2: for a couple of centuries. The British and the French

118
00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:44,640
Speaker 2: during the during their imperial phases, they created quite a

119
00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,560
Speaker 2: few sort of naval bases around that part of the world,

120
00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:49,599
Speaker 2: especially once the Sewers Canal had been opened, because they

121
00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,240
Speaker 2: knew that that particular part of the world was such

122
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,039
Speaker 2: a narrowly confined area where shipping would be very vulnerable.

123
00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,480
Speaker 2: Whoever had control of that area, would be able to

124
00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,600
Speaker 2: control shipping going from east to west or vice versa.

125
00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:06,480
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. It's fascinating, indeed, how geography is

126
00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:10,680
Speaker 1: so much at play in geopolitics. I suppose there's nothing

127
00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:13,520
Speaker 1: new about that, but I find myself reaching for maps

128
00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,520
Speaker 1: way more than I used to. Timothy Walker is senior

129
00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:21,680
Speaker 1: researcher on maritime security at the Institute for Security Studies.

130
00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 1: This is seven oh two drive