1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: You're with Clement Manya Tela on seven o two. Let's 2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: walk the talk streaming on the Prime Media Plus as 3 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: GSTV channel eight five six. 4 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 2: Ninety two point seven and one O six f M. 5 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 1: Seven minutes after nine oht club do you Mela? Welcome 6 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: to the Wednesday edition of the Clement Manyitela Show. It's 7 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: great to have you with us here on seven oh two. 8 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 1: I trust you are well this morning, so let's kick 9 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: off the seven oh two open line, shall we. The 10 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 1: big developing story we're trekking this morning is around the 11 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: war in the Middle East. We talk about this a 12 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: lot because this war is quite a defining moment in geopolitics. 13 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: It's defining for the world, it's defining for the people 14 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 1: of Iran. But it also affects you in various ways, 15 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: including your pockets. So it matters much. So we woke 16 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: up this morning to a huge sense of relief because 17 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 1: a ceasefire has been agreed between the US and Iran. 18 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 1: It's been agreed between the US and Iran. Remember, President 19 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: Trump warned that a whole civilization was going to die 20 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: last night. He threatened to annihilate Iran. But thanks to 21 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 1: the intervention of Pakistan, which is trying to broak a 22 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: peace between the two countries, and hopefully that works because 23 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: the entire Gulf region is on pins and needles. So 24 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: I was away from President Trump committing a war crime. 25 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: A ceasfire was agreed to you. And this ceasfire means 26 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: that the attacks will stop for about two weeks. The 27 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: Strait of Homus will be opened for two weeks. Iran 28 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: says a safe passage through that strait will be possible 29 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: via coordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration 30 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: of technical limitations, which is a great short term relief 31 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: for the global market. So the two parties are now 32 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: expected to meet on Friday. In fact, world leaders have 33 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 1: been responding welcoming this sees fire. Here's what Pope Leo 34 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: said just the other day. 35 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 2: I would simply say once again what I said in 36 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 2: the messaged on Sunday, asking all people of goodwill to 37 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 2: search always for peace and not violence, to reject war, 38 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 2: especially a war which many people have said is an 39 00:02:54,320 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 2: unjust war, which is continuing to escalate and which is 40 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 2: not resolving anything. In fact, we have a worldwidide economic crisis, 41 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 2: energy crisis, situation in the Middle East, of great instability, 42 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:15,239 Speaker 2: which is only provoking more hatred throughout the world. So 43 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 2: come back to the table, let's talk, Let's look for 44 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: solutions in a peaceful way, and let's remember especially the 45 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: innocent children, the elderly, sick, so many people who have 46 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 2: already become or will become victims of this continued warfare. 47 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 2: To remind all that at tax on civilian infrastructure is 48 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 2: against international law, but that it is also a sign 49 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: of the hatred, the division, and the destruction the human 50 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,839 Speaker 2: being is capable of. And we all want to work 51 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 2: for peace. People want peace. I would invite the citizens 52 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 2: of all the countries involved to contact the authorities, political leaders, 53 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 2: congressman to ask them, tell them to work for peace 54 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 2: and to reject war always. Thank you very much. 55 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: So that's what Pope Leo said. But other I mean, 56 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: there are world leaders that have been responding, a lot 57 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: of them welcoming and this opportunity for the two parties 58 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 1: to sit down. So here's a question for you. Whose 59 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 1: victory do you think this is? Because both America and 60 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 1: Iran are claiming victory. America will tell you that Iran caved. 61 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,359 Speaker 1: Iran will say to you, America blinked but what do 62 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 1: you think? Let me call on oh one one eight 63 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: eight three oh seven oh two. You can send your 64 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: WhatsApps on seven two seven two one seven oh two. 65 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: Here's what I think, and let me know if you 66 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 1: agree or disagree. I think this is a victory for Iran. 67 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: Do you know how many deadlines President Trump said against Iran? 68 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 1: About five or so, and he didn't follow through on them. 69 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: In fact, he kept moving them. Is that a sign 70 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: of a man in control? The way he's been posting 71 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: on social media, clearly frustrated, using profanity, mocking the religion 72 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:13,599 Speaker 1: of the Iranians, all of that another sign of a 73 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: man who has strategy. So I think the US was 74 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 1: out maneuvered here Strategically. They didn't have the foresight of 75 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: Iran weaponizing victory, I mean, or weaponizing the strait of Homus, 76 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: is what I mean to say. And I think this 77 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: is a strategic victory for Iran. And here's why I 78 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: think so, And I'm interested in your thoughts. There's strategic 79 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 1: goals of this war from the US side. Let's take 80 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: a few steps back. What were the goals of this war? 81 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: They have shifted from Iran may attackers. We don't want 82 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: them to have a nuclear weapon to open the Strait 83 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: of Hormuz. So if Iran opens the Strait of Hormus 84 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: but keeps its nuclear enrichment program, is America now going 85 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: to be ok with that? Because that's no longer a demand. 86 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: Have you noticed that it's all about opening the Strait 87 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: of Hormus? Now, that's what the noise is about. Iran 88 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: has always been clear about its goals in this war. 89 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:15,720 Speaker 1: Remember I said to you on the first week of 90 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: the war, when we spoke on the open Line, I said, 91 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: I think iran strategy seems to be to internationalize the war, 92 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: to increase the collective price of the conflict, so that 93 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: this becomes sort of a war against the entire global economy. 94 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 1: And I think the idea was to have as many 95 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 1: countries as possible affected so that they can put pressure 96 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: on the US to and the war, which is why 97 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: you saw them targeting other Gulf countries, disrupting travel, affecting 98 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 1: energy infrastructure, et cetera. And then of course the world's 99 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 1: most critical oil shipping route being effectively close. It's so 100 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: funny because this is like a thirty three kilometer or 101 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: so area, but it holds enough power to shake the 102 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 1: entire world, and the entire world has been shaking because 103 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: it handles a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, 104 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: about a fifth of the world's supply of LNG, the 105 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: liquefied natural gas, So this war has effectively paralyzed it. 106 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: Almost no ships have been entering or exiting the Strait 107 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: of Homus, which means higher oil prices gas prices, which 108 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: will then only push up inflation. And America itself, by 109 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: the way, is not shielded from the impact, even though 110 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: it doesn't heavily rely on the Strait of Homos for 111 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: energy security, but because of how oil is priced, they 112 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: are affected. It's a global pricing system. So Iran has 113 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: managed to put pressure on the US through the Strait 114 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 1: of Homos. And I really think that's it for me. 115 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: This war has handed a weapon to Iran that is 116 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: far usable than a nuclear webpon and that's the Strait 117 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: of Homos that's choking up global oil supply and disrupting 118 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: the global economy. It's a choke point. And for forty 119 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: seven years, if you look at the relationship between Iran 120 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: and America, for forty seven years of these tensions, Iran 121 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: has never closed the Strait of Hermus or used it 122 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: as leverage, but now it has and the US wants 123 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: it open. So President Donald Trump put himself in a 124 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: corner here, and I really think we need to also 125 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: have a conversation about the demands of the US and Iran, 126 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: because I honestly think they are not practical at all. 127 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 1: They are unrealistic. Reports in America indicate that Trump's fifteen 128 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: point plan includes dismantling key Iranian nuclear facilities. That plan 129 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: by Trump includes a permanent ban on nuclear development, the 130 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 1: opening of the Strait of hermus limitations on ballistic missiles Iran. 131 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: When they looked at this plan initially, they said, this 132 00:08:56,520 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 1: is unreasonable. Look at what Iran is demanding in return 133 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: their ten point plan. Iran's ten point plan includes the 134 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: withdrawal of the US forces from the Gulf region. Are 135 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: you kidding me? America is never gonna allow that. Their 136 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: plan includes continued control of the Strait of Homus, cessation 137 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. You think Israel 138 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: would be okay with that, acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment program, 139 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: lifting of all sanctions against Iran. That's what Iranians are demanding, 140 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: and I just think both these are not realistic at all, 141 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: but I guess it's part of negotiations.