1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,480
Speaker 1: Quarter past five on seven two Drive. Let's focus our

2
00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:06,640
Speaker 1: attention now on the Middle East. All sorts of reports,

3
00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:10,639
Speaker 1: many of them conflicting, some of them conflictual, and certainly

4
00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:13,920
Speaker 1: a lot of them contradictory, are coming out all the

5
00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:18,040
Speaker 1: time about possible peace talks, and then contained within the

6
00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:22,599
Speaker 1: same reports comments made by adverse series involved in the

7
00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:26,320
Speaker 1: conflict in and around Iran that would suggest peace couldn't

8
00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:30,600
Speaker 1: be further from the table if you tried. The latest

9
00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,519
Speaker 1: thing that I've looked at, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and

10
00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,760
Speaker 1: Egypt have set up a team for back channel talks

11
00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,080
Speaker 1: with the US and Iran, but the positions do appear

12
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,360
Speaker 1: to be at the moment widely divergent. Let's try and

13
00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,800
Speaker 1: get an insights as to whether there are any insights,

14
00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:52,760
Speaker 1: any tentative steps down peace road. Professor James Kerlinsey international

15
00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,280
Speaker 1: relations expert, back with us on seven oh two drive.

16
00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:01,240
Speaker 1: Prof thanks so much again for your time. It's very

17
00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:05,840
Speaker 1: hard to actually gauge whether you know there are genuine

18
00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,839
Speaker 1: piece talks going on at all, but one might say that, well,

19
00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,200
Speaker 1: that's what always happens when there's a war in progress.

20
00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:17,240
Speaker 1: That nobody says exactly what they might be thinking about

21
00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,600
Speaker 1: or talking about behind closed doors. What's your take on

22
00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:22,000
Speaker 1: this is anything happening?

23
00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 2: A great question, and I think as you sort of

24
00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,480
Speaker 2: suggested in the introduction, I mean, the fact is we're

25
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 2: dealing with lots and lots of rumors. I mean, this

26
00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:37,440
Speaker 2: is very common in warfare. We see this time and

27
00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:39,520
Speaker 2: time again, and I think this is the thing the

28
00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:44,240
Speaker 2: first few weeks, especially of a conflict, it's almost breathless

29
00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:48,200
Speaker 2: news coverage of every new development that we're getting, and

30
00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:50,480
Speaker 2: there's very little analysis that comes out of it. But

31
00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:55,040
Speaker 2: this is a particularly confusing conflict in that there are

32
00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:59,640
Speaker 2: all sorts of rumors swirling. You're absolutely right. Trump seems

33
00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,360
Speaker 2: to be said mixed messages. So one moment he could

34
00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,120
Speaker 2: be talking about, you know, on the verge of peace

35
00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,640
Speaker 2: talks and on the verge of peace or the cessation

36
00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:10,639
Speaker 2: of hostilities. The next moment he's talking about obliterating Iran's

37
00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:14,919
Speaker 2: energy infrastructure, which has also been pointed out would be

38
00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:19,200
Speaker 2: a war crime. But nevertheless, we're also hearing troop movements,

39
00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:23,720
Speaker 2: American troop movements into the Middle East, that there's talk

40
00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:28,240
Speaker 2: that they're sending marines in. So it's incredibly difficult to tell,

41
00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:32,440
Speaker 2: And I think one of the things, you know, that

42
00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,600
Speaker 2: seems to be the prevailing view at the moment is

43
00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:39,799
Speaker 2: that ultimately the most likely way this conflict is going

44
00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,160
Speaker 2: to end is that Trump just declares victory and walks away.

45
00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,320
Speaker 2: The thing is, he's got to do it in a

46
00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,960
Speaker 2: way that isn't going to necessarily humiliate him. We know

47
00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,880
Speaker 2: what a narcissisty is. We know all the problems that

48
00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,799
Speaker 2: you know, come if you bruise his egos. So what

49
00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:59,560
Speaker 2: that would in fact require is for Trump to declare

50
00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,360
Speaker 2: victory and everyone to play along with it, you know,

51
00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,000
Speaker 2: to accept the mad king has made his decision. But

52
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:09,320
Speaker 2: you know what, in this case, swallow their pride, to

53
00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:13,360
Speaker 2: allow his pride to sort of exit the United States

54
00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,200
Speaker 2: from this utter mess that he's created.

55
00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:22,000
Speaker 1: It's an additionally complicated scenario, though, isn't it that in

56
00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,880
Speaker 1: the first stages of this you I think it's fair

57
00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,800
Speaker 1: to say the United States and Israel were working together.

58
00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,560
Speaker 1: But I think what's become clear over time is that

59
00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:38,840
Speaker 1: their goals and timelines and limitations, if any, on what

60
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:43,640
Speaker 1: they want to pursue in this particular conflict are not

61
00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,360
Speaker 1: exactly the same. And at times quite divergent.

62
00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,360
Speaker 2: Absolutely. I mean, you know, look, you can take several

63
00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,880
Speaker 2: views of what Israel's ultimate goals are. So you've got

64
00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:59,640
Speaker 2: Israel as a country which will want to diminish Iran's capabilities.

65
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,560
Speaker 2: Iran has spent the past, what you know, we're talking

66
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:08,400
Speaker 2: since the creation of the Islamic Republican in nineteen seventy nine,

67
00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,800
Speaker 2: as sort of threatening the existence of the state of Israel,

68
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,120
Speaker 2: and so Israel has always seen Iran as an existential threat.

69
00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,480
Speaker 2: But for Netanyahu in particular, you know, this is somebody

70
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,880
Speaker 2: who has faced all sorts of corruption allegations at home.

71
00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,680
Speaker 2: The war against Iran, not just this one, but obviously

72
00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,400
Speaker 2: the one that we saw last summer, has become a

73
00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:34,800
Speaker 2: lifeline for his political survival. So for him, an inconclusive

74
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,000
Speaker 2: end is not actually the end of the world. He

75
00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:38,640
Speaker 2: can simply say, look, I had to go along with

76
00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,720
Speaker 2: it because this is what the Americans wanted and we

77
00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,719
Speaker 2: need their support. But I will be keeping a close

78
00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:46,960
Speaker 2: eye on Iran and I will not let this drop.

79
00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,239
Speaker 2: But of course, as you point out, for the United States,

80
00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,520
Speaker 2: we're dealing with a very different situation. The United States

81
00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,200
Speaker 2: has created the conditions. I think maybe felt Trump felt,

82
00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,880
Speaker 2: under advisement from his key official, not least of all

83
00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,320
Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth, who goes under the ridiculous title of Secretary

84
00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,760
Speaker 2: for War, that this would be an easy victory, and

85
00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:09,400
Speaker 2: you know, they'd be able to do what they were

86
00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:12,000
Speaker 2: able to do in Venezuela, and they'd be regime changed.

87
00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,599
Speaker 2: And of course that hasn't happened, and the effects that

88
00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:16,680
Speaker 2: we've seen on the world economy and on the US

89
00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,960
Speaker 2: economy has been utterly disastrous. So you're absolutely right. You know,

90
00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,120
Speaker 2: it might have been at first that Israel and the

91
00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,120
Speaker 2: United States were on the same page and had the

92
00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,920
Speaker 2: same objectives, but I think it is very clear now

93
00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,279
Speaker 2: that they do have very, very divungent aims. And for

94
00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,839
Speaker 2: Trump this has become a problem on all sorts of levels,

95
00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,480
Speaker 2: not just from the economic perspective, but this has really

96
00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,360
Speaker 2: undermined the US role in international affairs. This has shown,

97
00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:46,640
Speaker 2: I mean, this is rapidly becoming the Usay's Ukraine War,

98
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,160
Speaker 2: as it has been for Pootin in Russia, an intense

99
00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,600
Speaker 2: embarrassment that was meant to be over in a few days,

100
00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,720
Speaker 2: and the Iranians have proved much much tougher than many expected.

101
00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,560
Speaker 1: There's an expression I've heard that you can't win a

102
00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,760
Speaker 1: the ta what you don't hold in the field. If that,

103
00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:07,159
Speaker 1: to some degree at least is a factor in negotiations

104
00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,520
Speaker 1: in the back channeling going on, If one were to

105
00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,120
Speaker 1: look at the position in the field, I mean, does

106
00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:17,080
Speaker 1: is it run yet in a position where they would

107
00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,600
Speaker 1: have to accept anything the US puts on the table?

108
00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:24,080
Speaker 1: Are they sufficiently weakened in that regard or are they

109
00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:28,719
Speaker 1: able to say, well, actually, as a kind of relatively speaking,

110
00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:33,000
Speaker 1: low intensity war, we can continue doing loads of damage

111
00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,880
Speaker 1: while holding a much on the face of it, a

112
00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:39,159
Speaker 1: weaker set of cards.

113
00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,640
Speaker 2: Well, I mean great points, and I mean this is

114
00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:47,359
Speaker 2: where you get into questions of resilience. And we saw that.

115
00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:52,040
Speaker 2: You know, Iran can clearly take quite a battering, and

116
00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,320
Speaker 2: it has done so far. But how long they can

117
00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:58,880
Speaker 2: keep that up for? But of course then you get

118
00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,039
Speaker 2: into the situation so I mean, look, one parallel that

119
00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,160
Speaker 2: we could draw would be sort of the Kosovo conflict

120
00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:07,000
Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety nine, where Serbia was born by NATO

121
00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,320
Speaker 2: seventy eight days and then eventually just simply said, look,

122
00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,679
Speaker 2: this punishment's too much, we can't take it, and sued

123
00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:18,240
Speaker 2: for peace and there was a UN resolution. Whether we

124
00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,960
Speaker 2: get to that situation with Iran or not is a

125
00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,280
Speaker 2: very good question. I think this is a much tougher

126
00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,760
Speaker 2: regime in all sorts of ways, it will be fighting

127
00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:30,680
Speaker 2: for its survival. And also it's very cleanly aware that

128
00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,360
Speaker 2: it has a strategic whip hand over this Strait of

129
00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:36,960
Speaker 2: Hormuz and being able to block it, and will know

130
00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:40,200
Speaker 2: that ultimately, if the United States wants to break the logjam,

131
00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,440
Speaker 2: if they really dig their heels in, the only way

132
00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,400
Speaker 2: Washington is going to be able to do that is

133
00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:48,800
Speaker 2: sending troops in, and that I think the general consensus is,

134
00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:51,320
Speaker 2: or it might be possible to take a few islands,

135
00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:53,720
Speaker 2: but you know, to send troops into Iran, a country

136
00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,080
Speaker 2: of ninety million people. Now many people would love to

137
00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,360
Speaker 2: see the end of the regime. There will also be

138
00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,080
Speaker 2: a lot who will fight again against it. And you know,

139
00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,680
Speaker 2: we're of an age where we can very clearly remember

140
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,720
Speaker 2: what happened with the United States and Iraq and what

141
00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:09,119
Speaker 2: a mess that ended up becoming. And I think most

142
00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,280
Speaker 2: military observers would say that pails into insignificance as to

143
00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,040
Speaker 2: what we could be facing if the US tried to

144
00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:14,800
Speaker 2: go into Iran.

145
00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,840
Speaker 1: I think it's the world's biggest, eighth biggest army if

146
00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:24,680
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, but profess I mean the beck channelers

147
00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,080
Speaker 1: and foreign ministers from the four countries. Let me just

148
00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:32,440
Speaker 1: repeat them again, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt meeting

149
00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:38,960
Speaker 1: in Islamabad there was yesterday. Why those four and what

150
00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:42,880
Speaker 1: do they bring any particular leverage, either individually or collectively.

151
00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,160
Speaker 2: Well, I mean it's an interesting lineup, isn't it, Because,

152
00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,120
Speaker 2: of course, all four of them have very close traditional

153
00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:54,920
Speaker 2: relations with the West. And remembering of course that certainly

154
00:08:54,960 --> 00:09:00,199
Speaker 2: Turkey and Pakistan are neighbors of Iran and by and

155
00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:03,079
Speaker 2: large have had actually pretty good relations with it. I mean,

156
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,120
Speaker 2: in recent years there have been a few tensions between

157
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:09,000
Speaker 2: Iran and Pakistan over a part of Iran and a

158
00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,800
Speaker 2: neighboring part of Pakistan called Blochistan, but essentially that they've

159
00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,240
Speaker 2: had a very good relationship, and the same in many

160
00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,400
Speaker 2: ways with Pakistan. With Turkey and Iran, I mean, you know,

161
00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,000
Speaker 2: there are tensions over the years. They're very different in

162
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:25,680
Speaker 2: many ways, but there has been a relationship. Saudi Arabia

163
00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,000
Speaker 2: is a more interesting one because Saudi Arabian and Iran

164
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,200
Speaker 2: had a long time rivalry which was actually there was

165
00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,640
Speaker 2: a peace broken by China, of all countries. This was

166
00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,160
Speaker 2: one of the first major steps of Beijing onto the

167
00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,760
Speaker 2: international stage a couple of years ago when it broke

168
00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,800
Speaker 2: this deal. But on the other hand, there are also

169
00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,000
Speaker 2: a lot of observers who feel that underneath it all,

170
00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,520
Speaker 2: many of these countries wouldn't mind it if the Iranian

171
00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,880
Speaker 2: regime fell, but perhaps they can also see this is

172
00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:57,280
Speaker 2: a chance for Muslim countries, major Muslim countries to come

173
00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,240
Speaker 2: together and also show that they can do something. So

174
00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:04,000
Speaker 2: it's a very interesting development. But how far it's going

175
00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,960
Speaker 2: to go is obviously anyone's guess at the moment, especially

176
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:08,440
Speaker 2: when you're dealing with someone like Trump.

177
00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:15,120
Speaker 1: And I suppose just finally, in terms of the kind

178
00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:19,480
Speaker 1: of volatility of all of this, uh, the the US

179
00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:23,200
Speaker 1: President will come up with a range of statements. You know,

180
00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:27,920
Speaker 1: he is quoted as saying that he will deal with

181
00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:32,040
Speaker 1: the new reasonable regime in Iran. I mean, does that

182
00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:34,400
Speaker 1: even exist?

183
00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:39,200
Speaker 2: No, in a word, this is the thing. It's it's

184
00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:42,760
Speaker 2: wishful thinking, you know. And this is this has been

185
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:48,040
Speaker 2: an exceptionally badly planned conflict. Maybe they felt they could

186
00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,079
Speaker 2: do what they had done in Venezuela, where they got

187
00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,600
Speaker 2: rid of Nicholas Maduro and they put in place Elsea Rodriguez.

188
00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,760
Speaker 2: And this is somebody who may be very compliant. In

189
00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,200
Speaker 2: the case of Iran. We saw even in the first

190
00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:04,080
Speaker 2: few days after they killed Atola Hamini, there was you know,

191
00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,800
Speaker 2: there were reports coming out that the American government had

192
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:10,760
Speaker 2: admitted two journalists that ups. We also killed the second

193
00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:14,160
Speaker 2: and third order of leadership, those we'd identified as a

194
00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,360
Speaker 2: potential replacements. And now you have how Many's son, who

195
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,120
Speaker 2: is end that far more hardline, who was in ways

196
00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:24,600
Speaker 2: from what we can tell, is strange from his father

197
00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:28,600
Speaker 2: because he was so much more hardline, and of course

198
00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,640
Speaker 2: we don't know where he is. There is a very

199
00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,360
Speaker 2: diffuse power structure that now seems to exist in Iran

200
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,320
Speaker 2: that they seem to put something in place to make

201
00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,920
Speaker 2: sure that if something like this happened, that they could

202
00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:44,360
Speaker 2: resist US invasion simply by not having a single leadership

203
00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:46,679
Speaker 2: in place. So it looks like the Iranians have been

204
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:48,800
Speaker 2: doing a lot of planning for this. But certainly all

205
00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,080
Speaker 2: the indications suggests that the idea that we're going to

206
00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:53,800
Speaker 2: get some sort of moderate compliant figure who's going to

207
00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,520
Speaker 2: roll over and say, you know, after forty five years

208
00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:59,320
Speaker 2: of hating the United States, that well that's it. Will

209
00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:04,880
Speaker 2: Let bygones beag up bygones. Seems rather deluded at this stage.

210
00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:05,760
Speaker 1: Thank you very much.

211
00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:06,160
Speaker 2: Indeed.

212
00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:11,080
Speaker 1: Professor James ker Lindsay, international relations expert, his take on

213
00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:15,480
Speaker 1: the piece talks or not that are going on in

214
00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,480
Speaker 1: regard to the conflict in and around Iran twenty seven

215
00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:19,560
Speaker 1: minutes past five