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Speaker 1: You're listening to the best of The Money Show.

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Speaker 2: The Money Show.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the best bits of the Money Show. You're

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Speaker 3: listening to a digest of just some of the best

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Speaker 3: interviews from the show this week. If you'd like to

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Speaker 3: hear more, please go to our website or your podcast

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Speaker 3: app and search for The Money Show. Obviously a good

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Speaker 3: idea to share it with someone in your life and

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Speaker 3: your community, maybe in your workplace, who you think could

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Speaker 3: benefit from one of the conversations that you hear. To start,

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Speaker 3: some of the news stories that we thought were interesting

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Speaker 3: from the week that was in a striking show of

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Speaker 3: nearly global unity, the G twenty clinching a joint declaration

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Speaker 3: that's despite the US boycott did seem to signal to

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Speaker 3: me and I was there. It seemed to signal the

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Speaker 3: world's intention to move forward without the Trump administration and

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Speaker 3: certainly was a very powerful moment for President Sarah Roma Poser.

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Speaker 3: And then on his own social media platform social Trump

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Speaker 3: said that South Africa is off the guest just for

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Speaker 3: next year. He says, because and he's lying here of

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Speaker 3: what's happening to our farmers, our wife farmers. He believes

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Speaker 3: that South Africa should not be invited. We'll see how

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Speaker 3: the rest of the D twenty feel about that. And

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Speaker 3: then the other big story this week, the Durban Container

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Speaker 3: Terminal seems to now be overhauling operations from clean clin

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Speaker 3: cranes to clearances and is slowly but surely working its

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Speaker 3: way off the bottom of being the worst port in

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Speaker 3: the world bank Port Index ratings. Tonight we bring you

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Speaker 3: a mixture of stories from the world of money from

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Speaker 3: the week that has been our shape shift to this week.

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Speaker 3: Timbani Bakula the chair of the National Energy Regulator of

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Speaker 3: South Africa. He is an electrical engineer and an energy strategist.

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Speaker 3: He's been involved in regulatory and technical issues for many

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Speaker 3: years and finds himself in the middle of a very

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Speaker 3: interesting situation regarding the energy transition.

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Speaker 4: Timbani Bacola so I did my BC and electrical engineering

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Speaker 4: at the University of natal Further to that, I did

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Speaker 4: my diploma in Engineering Business Management at the Warwick University

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Speaker 4: and my master's in Maths, Engineering and Science at UNISO.

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Speaker 4: So I was keen on the electrical supply industry.

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Speaker 3: What was it about it that was so interesting? And

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Speaker 3: I can imagine the technical nature of it I think

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Speaker 3: you can sort of drown yourself in it. It must

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Speaker 3: be quite interesting, was it that? Was there something else about,

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Speaker 3: you know, making electrons move that you found interesting.

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Speaker 4: I think let's add from the fact that I come

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Speaker 4: from a small village called the Kofinbaba, and in that village,

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Speaker 4: electricity was not something that we had a lot of.

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Speaker 4: So I think my interest was in having knowing about

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Speaker 4: this commodity that makes life easy and yet it is

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Speaker 4: not so easily available.

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Speaker 3: And I must have had such a huge impact on

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Speaker 3: your community when there was the electricity available, and I

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Speaker 3: mean it was one of the parts of the country.

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Speaker 3: It had to wait quite a long time.

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Speaker 4: Yes, it did, and I think it changed a lot

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Speaker 4: of lives. I mean people didn't know no longer had

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Speaker 4: to take a bath every day to just go and

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Speaker 4: buy meat that they must consume that evening and then

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Speaker 4: the following day they have to go and buy. They

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Speaker 4: could now storm it to reduce their course. So the

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Speaker 4: quality of life just by providing electricity improved. I mean

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Speaker 4: kids could play at night and study those who were

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Speaker 4: studying under proper lighting, not the candlelight or paraffine lamp.

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Speaker 4: So it was a big contributor to the change in

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Speaker 4: the quality of life of the people.

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Speaker 3: One of your first jobs was at a company called

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Speaker 3: Yellend Engineering, and I smiled slightly, because there's a yell

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Speaker 3: End you probably have to deal with quite often nowadays.

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Speaker 4: Yes, it was actually his family business. His dad was

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Speaker 4: my boss at Yelland Engineering.

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Speaker 3: Oh wow, I didn't know that. See, so you have

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Speaker 3: a long association with the family then, jesh.

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Speaker 4: Yes.

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Speaker 3: So when I first started reporting on you, and I

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Speaker 3: can't remember the exact year, but it would have been

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Speaker 3: after the first part of low Heading in two thousand

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Speaker 3: and eight, and you were the member for Electricity at

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Speaker 3: NURSA for a long time, and that meant you were

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Speaker 3: the person in charge of that. That's quite a you

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Speaker 3: kind of would have found yourself, as you know, in

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Speaker 3: the spotlight because so many things were happening around it.

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Speaker 3: How did you end up in that position? How did

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Speaker 3: you end up as a regulator? I suppose is what

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Speaker 3: I'm really asking Steve.

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Speaker 4: And I think my first contact with the National Energy

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Speaker 4: Regulator was when I wanted to do a technical audits

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Speaker 4: for them for a few of the transmission lines and

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Speaker 4: substations that they wanted to look at. And out of

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Speaker 4: that I then I think they were appointing the first

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Speaker 4: board of the National Energy Regulators or it NASA, and

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Speaker 4: it was out of that interaction with NASA that they

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Speaker 4: then nominated me to be appointed as the regulator member

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Speaker 4: that would be primarily responsible for electricity.

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Speaker 3: How did you find the job? I mean, it's very technical.

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Speaker 3: We sort of would see that person in the context

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Speaker 3: of making decisions about power prices. It's a complex formula.

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Speaker 3: I often wonder. I mean, you must spend hours at

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Speaker 3: night just assessing all of the numbers to get it right.

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Speaker 3: It's very kind of fiddly. It must be very interesting

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Speaker 3: as well.

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Speaker 4: It is. I think there's the part that is really

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Speaker 4: the science and the accounting and the economics that there's

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Speaker 4: also then the other part that is more of an art.

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Speaker 4: I think as much as the regulation we may want

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Speaker 4: to look at it is that you look at a

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Speaker 4: lot of numbers and a lot of graphs. But there's

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Speaker 4: a part where you also, because you are predicting things

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Speaker 4: that are going to happen in the future, that you

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Speaker 4: also don't have one hundred percent certainty around them. You

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Speaker 4: also have an art of how do I make sure

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Speaker 4: that even if the future I'm picturing is not exactly

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Speaker 4: what it's going to be, but it doesn't fall far

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Speaker 4: off from that. But I also have to say that

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Speaker 4: during the times of low satting, as much as there

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Speaker 4: many other things that were predicted that would happen, when

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Speaker 4: they happened, they happened at a pace that was much

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Speaker 4: faster than what we had anticipated. And we also the

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Speaker 4: utility that was also not operating at optimal levels. So

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Speaker 4: things got really complicated.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean very difficult as well, and I mentioned

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Speaker 3: there must have been moments that where it was probably

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Speaker 3: quite uncomfortable. If we can, I'd like to talk a

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Speaker 3: little bit about sort of the changes we're seeing now.

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Speaker 3: So there's a review around how we put together the

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Speaker 3: electricity price. That's kind of out of your hands in

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Speaker 3: a way. You regulate on what you're given to regulate,

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Speaker 3: But how do you see your role in all of that,

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Speaker 3: because I mean, I imagine for me, it would be

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Speaker 3: kind of foolish to do a whole review without including

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Speaker 3: nurser in it somewhere. And yet your job is to

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Speaker 3: be independent and to basically make a judgment on what

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Speaker 3: you're asked to make a judgment on. I mean, you're

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Speaker 3: a bit like a judge. This is the law. You

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Speaker 3: have to follow that.

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Speaker 4: Stephn the matter of pricing. As I said that, I

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Speaker 4: mean there's accounting, there's economics, and there's engineering in it,

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Speaker 4: and when you have to determine the pricing, you have

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Speaker 4: to consider all of those fields. And in what we

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Speaker 4: are going to do now now that we are moving

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Speaker 4: towards a market, what is being hoped would happen is

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Speaker 4: that when we have other players that wants to sell

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Speaker 4: their product, the tendency when a market is created is

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Speaker 4: that producers try and find the list possible way of

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Speaker 4: producing their product, which then results in the list possible

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Speaker 4: costs of the product. What our function is going to

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Speaker 4: be going forward as a regulator is to ensure that

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Speaker 4: the playing fields are leveled. We do not necessarily have

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Speaker 4: an entity that has the advantage over the other. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: in our case in South Africa, we're still going to

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Speaker 4: have es COM being a dominant player for the list

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Speaker 4: the next ten years, So our function is still going

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Speaker 4: to be that one of mitigating that dominant dominance or

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Speaker 4: dominant power of es COM and ensuring that the other

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Speaker 4: players that are not dominant are given the same rules

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Speaker 4: to play under the same field and the same parameters

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Speaker 4: operate under.

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Speaker 3: So, just to be clear, you do believe, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I believe you do believe that the introduction of competition

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Speaker 3: will bring electricity prices down. It will make electricity prices

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Speaker 3: lower at some point.

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Speaker 4: True, when we get to a point where there's efficiencies

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Speaker 4: in the way that you run your operations to your operations,

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Speaker 4: then there is no reason why the electricity prices would

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Speaker 4: not go down. We also have a change in the

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Speaker 4: technologies that are being used that also will contribute to

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Speaker 4: the reduction in the costs and therefore make the electricity

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Speaker 4: prices kind of reduced from the levels that we're seeing.

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Speaker 3: So, I mean, there might be a moment where Eskim,

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Speaker 3: for various reasons, maybe because it's such a big coal

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Speaker 3: fired producer of power, just can't compete with other operators.

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Speaker 3: Do you have to take that into account that we

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Speaker 3: do kind of need Eskim or something like it, even

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Speaker 3: if it may just never be able to really compete

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Speaker 3: on price. I mean, that's quite a difficult situation to

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Speaker 3: have to deal with where you kind of need it

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Speaker 3: as a I suppose, I don't know, any emergency or

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Speaker 3: a baseload supplier or something, and yet other newer plants

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Speaker 3: may just be able to provide electricity more cheaply. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you need to keep best going in that circumstance, and

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Speaker 3: year it won't be competitive.

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Speaker 4: That's partly true that we have to keep an escom

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Speaker 4: there going, But I think one of the reasons why

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Speaker 4: we will keep Escome going is because we also haven't

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Speaker 4: got to a stage where the alternative technologies are able

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Speaker 4: to supply power twenty four to seven. The sun only

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Speaker 4: shines during the day. The wind blows when it wants

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Speaker 4: to blow, and therefore you need something that can then

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Speaker 4: provide that base power for when there's no wind and

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Speaker 4: when there's no sun. And I think that's the advantage

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Speaker 4: that es commands. The disadvantage with the plants that they

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Speaker 4: have is that they are not the sort of plants

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Speaker 4: that you can, you know, ten on and off and

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Speaker 4: when you need them, you need to be running them

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Speaker 4: all of the time for them to be able to

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Speaker 4: produce power. It's not like you can, I mean, to

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Speaker 4: study coal fire power station takes a few hours. And

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Speaker 4: therefore we have to accept that there is going to

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Speaker 4: be that part of the inefficiency in our system if

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Speaker 4: we want to have a continuous power available. But I

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Speaker 4: think as the technology has change, and as the ESCOM

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Speaker 4: improves its own technologism, so we will get to a

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Speaker 4: point where we have a way of adjusting the output

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Speaker 4: of the call file power stations to align with what

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Speaker 4: is required, and not to just have them idling because

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Speaker 4: you can switch them off.

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Speaker 3: I want to ask you to make a prediction about

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Speaker 3: power prices and when they'll come down, And as I

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Speaker 3: do it, I realized that this cannot be. This will

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Speaker 3: be more of the art you spoke about rather than

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Speaker 3: a science. Do you have any idea of when that

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Speaker 3: might happen? And you may not even be able to

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Speaker 3: answer because of the position you hold as chair of nurses,

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Speaker 3: But I mean, do you think in ten years, for example,

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Speaker 3: we will stop having such big power price? Maybe fifteen years.

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Speaker 3: I won't hold you to it either way, because I

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Speaker 3: realized it's an impossible question.

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Speaker 4: Uh, Steven, I think as the regulator, we've made there's

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Speaker 4: a pronouncement, so I'm not speaking out of terms. And

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Speaker 4: I think even ESCOM itself has made this realization that

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Speaker 4: going at the times and the days where we would

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Speaker 4: have increases that are double digits. The increases that we're

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Speaker 4: going to have in electricity have to be related to

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Speaker 4: inflation and the single digit and there's less the part

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Speaker 4: where where we also had to add a percentage or two.

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Speaker 4: If you looked at the determinations, they're already indicating that

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Speaker 4: the increases are going to be in your five for

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Speaker 4: six percent range. And yes, the other part that there

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Speaker 4: is that there are other technologies like your coal, I mean,

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Speaker 4: your solar PV and wind have had the reduced costs.

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Speaker 4: So there may be periods during in the next two

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Speaker 4: to three years, periods where we would have cheap power,

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Speaker 4: say during the day, we would have cheaper power because

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Speaker 4: it is cheaper cheaply produced or produced at the lowest

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Speaker 4: cost by your solar PV plants. And then yes, you

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Speaker 4: may have it at higher rates when the sun sets

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Speaker 4: and you have to start kicking in the escomb generators

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Speaker 4: and the digital generators. But we will have that, and

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Speaker 4: I mean other countries have already experienced that. In Australia,

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Speaker 4: for instance, during the day, consumers are encouraged to do

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Speaker 4: anything and everything they used to need to do with

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Speaker 4: power and pay nothing for that power that they use

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Speaker 4: during the day. Because of this advantage that has been

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Speaker 4: brought by your solar PV systems with the lowest cost production.

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Speaker 3: Our shape shift to the sweet company, but Cool bringing

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Speaker 3: a wealth of experience and knowledge from his decades to

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Speaker 3: come and explain what's happening around nurser.

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Speaker 1: The Best of the Money Show on seven.

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Speaker 3: Two Personal Finance This week, Warren Ingram, the financial advisor

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Speaker 3: co founder of Galileo Capital, speaking about how you and

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Speaker 3: investors can seize opportunities as South Africa enters a period

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Speaker 3: of economic optimism.

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Speaker 5: And I don't think we necessarily stop and tech stock

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Speaker 5: of we've arrived here. Can we remind ourselves where we

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Speaker 5: were and what we were not complaining about? But what

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Speaker 5: were we worried about? One, three, five, seven years ago?

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Speaker 5: And I'm just thinking, you know, when last died, you

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Speaker 5: said around the brier or the dinner table, complaining about

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Speaker 5: load shedding. Yeah, we don't do it anymore. And and

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Speaker 5: you know, the unemployment rates is rioting, and you know,

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Speaker 5: the economy is not doing anything, and the country's being

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Speaker 5: badly managed, et cetera, et cetera. And we were ingrained

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Speaker 5: to do that anyway, But we should stop and just

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Speaker 5: take a second to look where we are, and and

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Speaker 5: for me, a couple of things happened. We gave it atten.

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Speaker 5: We've given it actually attention on the show, but I'm

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Speaker 5: not sure as a country we gave it enough attention.

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Speaker 5: And so things like getting off the Gray List. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I've had so many people say to me, oh, we

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Speaker 5: shouldn't have been on it in the first place. Of

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Speaker 5: course that's true, but we're off it, and we did it,

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Speaker 5: not necessarily in record time, but actually one of the

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Speaker 5: quickest turnarounds. And then you add to the fact that

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Speaker 5: we're starting to balance the books as a country. You know,

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Speaker 5: when you talk about an individual and you say, please

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Speaker 5: stop spending more than you earn every month. While we

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Speaker 5: were doing that very successfully as a country, we were

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Speaker 5: spending a lot more than we were earning. We actually

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Speaker 5: now are spending less than the earning when you ignore

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Speaker 5: the interest cost. When you add the interest cost, that

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Speaker 5: it's not such a pretty picture. But that's called the

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Speaker 5: primary surplus. We're making a primary surplus again, so it's

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Speaker 5: now the second time, and I think we're on track

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Speaker 5: to do it for the third time. Then we get

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Speaker 5: to this blessed budget, and firstly, the budget goes through

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Speaker 5: without a fight. It happened. If there was fighting, You

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Speaker 5: and I didn't hear about it. It wasn't splashed all

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Speaker 5: over the news. Maybe you heard about it, I didn't

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Speaker 5: hear about it. Seems to me largely a consensus like

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Speaker 5: that that actually our government is pulling in a direction,

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Speaker 5: and it's what I would call a responsible direction. Again,

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Speaker 5: we're spending lesson we're earning, we're allocating money correctly. More

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Speaker 5: so as time goes on and we add into something

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Speaker 5: into that budget. Of By the way, we actually think

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Speaker 5: this three percent inflation target is a good thing, almost.

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Speaker 1: Like a buy the buy thing.

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Speaker 5: You know, there was a bit of a spat and

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Speaker 5: now there's not. Then we get a standard. I think

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Speaker 5: it's standard. Were saying, oh, we think you're doing a

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Speaker 5: really good job. Actually we're going to upgrade you. So

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Speaker 5: we're still below junk, but we're going to upgrade you.

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Speaker 5: And we think that the momentum for that upgrade is positive.

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Speaker 5: In other words, there is room for more upgrades in

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Speaker 5: the very near future. All of this has happened in

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Speaker 5: a reasonably short space of time. All of it is

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Speaker 5: incredibly positive.

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Speaker 3: It's also all about momentum, right it's not about the numbers,

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Speaker 3: it's about the trend, the direction that you're moving in.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I couldn't remember if I mentioned about unemployment.

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Speaker 5: Unemployment is slightly less bad. Yeah, another positive thing. So

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Speaker 5: what we've got now is that that kind of stone

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Speaker 5: that's rolling down the hill, all that's happened is it's

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Speaker 5: fractionally moved. It's got momentum. And what we need to

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Speaker 5: know is momentum has worked against us for a very

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Speaker 5: long period of time, but almost kind of two thousand

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Speaker 5: and seven was the last time we had really good

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Speaker 5: economic news. Now we're having it again. And if you

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Speaker 5: just keep doing the right things, that momentum starts to build.

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Speaker 5: And I think that that's where we are now. And

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Speaker 5: it's not just you and I are looking at this

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Speaker 5: and going, oh, that's okay. The rest of the world

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Speaker 5: looks at that and goes mineratings agencies. They're not the

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Speaker 5: most exciting people, right like they're not. They're looking at

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Speaker 5: the positive item, they're looking at what could go wrong,

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Speaker 5: and they're saying we're doing things well, things are going well,

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Speaker 5: and should carry on. That for me is very good news.

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Speaker 3: There's a big issue around the RAND and the new

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Speaker 3: inflation target of three percent. Why is that so important

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Speaker 3: because it keeps the rand at a certain level and

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Speaker 3: basically keeps it stronger.

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Speaker 5: Does so, just to be clear, like the intent is

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Speaker 5: not to manage the rand. The intent is the country

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Speaker 5: and the people that manage the books of our country.

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Speaker 5: So the Reserve Bank and our treasury are saying, we

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Speaker 5: are showing the world that we are fiscally disciplined, that

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Speaker 5: we are actually restrained in our spending, and that we

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Speaker 5: can control inflation if we do that. One of the

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Speaker 5: things that causes the rand to get weaker against the dollar,

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Speaker 5: for example, is if our inflation rate has been six

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Speaker 5: percent for a long period of time and theirs has

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Speaker 5: been two percent for a long period of time, that difference,

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Speaker 5: that that four percent difference will be the amount that

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Speaker 5: the rand will weaken against the dollar. When you ignore

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Speaker 5: all the politics and all the other things that could

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Speaker 5: go wrong, that would be a guarantee. So if we

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Speaker 5: get to three percent and they seem to be struggling

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Speaker 5: to break three percent, that means we both at three percent.

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Speaker 5: That's one thing that keeps the rand at a level

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Speaker 5: to the dollar. We'll still weaken because we're a small economy.

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Speaker 5: Politics are not great in all those things. But a

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Speaker 5: strong rand means we don't import inflation with oil, with food,

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Speaker 5: and that's a big issue. So we import a lot

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Speaker 5: of petrol we don't have our own, and we import

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Speaker 5: a lot of food, surprisingly, and those things cause inflation.

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Speaker 5: So if you're paying in dollars for those things and

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Speaker 5: the rand is now stable against the dollar, you don't

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Speaker 5: have as much inflation. Again, positive news.

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Speaker 3: Okay, it's eighteen minutes now to eighth the time. You

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Speaker 3: know the number O double one double A three or

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Speaker 3: seven two two one four four six, O five six

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Speaker 3: seven and voice notes on seven two seven oh two

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Speaker 3: one seven or two your questions for Warren Ingram tonight.

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Speaker 3: That's all the good news that's happening. How you make

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Speaker 3: money from it? And the first thing, I just want

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Speaker 3: to check this, Warren, because I know you'll know the answer.

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Speaker 3: We are now going to have lower inflation, which I

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Speaker 3: presume means that over time. So if we say over

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Speaker 3: the next twenty years, we should have lower interest rates,

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Speaker 3: which I'm hoping means that I would pay a lot

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Speaker 3: less interest on a bond that I started now than

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Speaker 3: I won then I started twenty years ago.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So the reason we have high interest rates right now

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Speaker 5: is it's the main tool and almost the only tool

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Speaker 5: that the Reserve Bank has to control inflation. If inflation

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Speaker 5: is under control, that means the Reserve Bank can start

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Speaker 5: to cut interest rates. If they cut interest rates, that

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Speaker 5: means that you and I pay less on our debts.

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Speaker 5: It also means the whole country pays less on its debts.

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Speaker 5: Because we as a country, we issue a government bond,

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Speaker 5: we have to be attractive to everybody South African and

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Speaker 5: global investors to offer them a good interest rate above inflation.

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Speaker 5: So if inflation rate is low, and that means instead

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Speaker 5: of issuing a bond at eleven percent, we might issue

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Speaker 5: it at eight percent, still a very attractive rate for

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Speaker 5: investors above inflation. But you and I are spending less

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Speaker 5: on debt, which means hopefully that we pay our debts down,

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Speaker 5: and that means that we've got more money to spend

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Speaker 5: on the economy. In the economy, so on building houses,

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Speaker 5: all of those things. Lower interest rates are extremely positive

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Speaker 5: for the property market for every individual who owns a

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Speaker 5: property or wants to own a property. Also for unfortunately,

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Speaker 5: things like extra spending. So now people will spend more

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Speaker 5: on the things that they don't really need. But it's

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Speaker 5: actually positive for the economy if we're not spending it

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Speaker 5: on useless thing, so we can actually create a positive

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Speaker 5: economic spiral that causes better unemployment.

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Speaker 1: You get the picture.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So then all of those things mean that there

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Speaker 3: would be quite a lot of positive news over the

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Speaker 3: long term, because this is where the long term matters.

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Speaker 3: But it's good news for businesses too if they want

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Speaker 3: to borrow money to expand.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so when you're paying you know, ten or eleven

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Speaker 5: percent a year to grow your factory or to build

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Speaker 5: a new building, I mean ten or eleven percent a year,

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Speaker 5: most businesses would be thrilled to grow their whole business

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Speaker 5: by let's say fifteen percent year. When you're giving away

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Speaker 5: most of that just an interests, it just doesn't create

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Speaker 5: scope to really invest properly. But if you're borrowing at

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Speaker 5: eight percent, it creates more scope to actually grow and grow,

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Speaker 5: and that's what we want. We want businesses to grow

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Speaker 5: so they employ more people. So lower interest rates caused

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Speaker 5: by controlled inflation have a huge economic impact, but not tomorrow.

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Speaker 5: So it's something that sustainably incrementally is the tire to turn.

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Speaker 3: You spoke about ratings agencies. Now, presumably they see this

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Speaker 3: if they then give us another. And going into this

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Speaker 3: with S and P Global, they gave us the upgrade.

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Speaker 3: The others haven't yet, but there was a lot of

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Speaker 3: speculation they didn't give us one now they would give

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Speaker 3: us one next year. So they gave us one. Now

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Speaker 3: that doesn't necessarily mean they'll give us one another one

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Speaker 3: next year, but the others will sit up and take

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Speaker 3: notice of that. What happens then if they all follow

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Speaker 3: and we start slowly getting rated.

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Speaker 5: Up let's say, which is not unrealistic. I'm not saying

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Speaker 5: we'll jump from three levels or two levels below junk

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Speaker 5: to immediately in fairy lay. Now we're at investment grade,

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Speaker 5: but that path to getting to investment grade is much

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Speaker 5: shorter now than it was in the past. If we

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Speaker 5: get to investment grade, that means we get onto global

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Speaker 5: bond market inducees, we get onto global stock market inducees again,

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Speaker 5: et cetera, et cetera. So now we start to attract

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Speaker 5: money simply because of momentum. Back to the M word again.

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Speaker 5: Momentum is in our favor here, so we get onto

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Speaker 5: a whole lot of red ears of the bond fund

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Speaker 5: managers as well, and just global investors would be looking

438
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,199
Speaker 5: at this and saying, Okay, your investment grade. So if

439
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 5: I'm a global manager and I've got to get allocate

440
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 5: money to places, I don't really get fired when I

441
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 5: allocate money to an investment grade country, allocate money to

442
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 5: a junk status country and it doesn't go well, I

443
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 5: get fired. So your risk appetite improves when you're buying

444
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 5: investment grade countries. There's a lot of human behavior behind this.

445
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 5: And then global businesses would be saying, okay, we can

446
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 5: build factories there, we can build our operations down there

447
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 5: as well. So investment grade for us is a huge thing,

448
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:38,920
Speaker 5: Like that's the thing we're really aiming for.

449
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 3: Okay, I mean I remember the terrible headlines South Africa

450
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 3: now junk you know when it all happened in twenty

451
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 3: seventeen and twenty fifteen, in December and all of that.

452
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 3: All of this. Then if we get some economic growth,

453
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 3: it starts to spiral. What happens then, I mean that

454
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 3: obviously does things for the JC which is having a

455
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 3: record time, even though a lot of the stocks that

456
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: are doing very well well are kind of earning money

457
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 3: in dollars and are related to gold.

458
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, so let's talk at about the growth were everybody's

459
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 5: kind of forecasting at the country generates point nine or

460
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 5: one point one percent economic growth, they call it GDP growth.

461
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 5: If we get something slightly faster than that, where the

462
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 5: good news does compound slightly, that means we start to

463
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 5: absorb more and more people who are unemployed into the

464
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,479
Speaker 5: employment sector. Our population growth is not much more than

465
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 5: one or two percent. So if you're actually absorbing people

466
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,239
Speaker 5: into the employment where you're growing employment faster than your

467
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 5: population is growing, all of a sudden, the whole country

468
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 5: gets a little bit richer per person. So that's GDP

469
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 5: per capital.

470
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 2: That's the jargon.

471
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 5: That is the gold and like the holy grail of everything.

472
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 5: You want to get to that point where you start

473
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 5: to make everybody feel a bit richer every day and

474
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 5: that they see hope. What we know is if you

475
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 5: have hope or all of a sudden, you start to

476
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 5: invest better and you do look at the long term.

477
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 5: You do build a house, you do builder business, you

478
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 5: do educate your kids in the country. So you break

479
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 5: that really bad spiral that we might be coming out

480
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 5: of now.

481
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 3: And that will also partly come over time because of

482
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 3: a lower inflation target, because they're interest rates in the

483
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 3: end will be lower.

484
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I didn't appreciate. I had to spend

485
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 5: some time with bond managers to understand that this inflation target,

486
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 5: almost like the announcement of it on its own wasn't something.

487
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 5: But now that Treasury is agreeing and Reserve Bank agreeing,

488
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 5: and actually that people see we're sticking to it in

489
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 5: our budgets in the way we're doing things means that immediately,

490
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 5: almost the very next day, when we issue new bonds

491
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 5: or we refinancing as a country, we're paying less interest already,

492
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 5: so it had a very positive impact. We are not

493
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:41,439
Speaker 5: going to spend as much on interest as we have

494
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 5: in the past, which means we can pay down our

495
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 5: debt faster, which hopefully means we can invest as a

496
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 5: country in more infrastructure, the things that create jobs.

497
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 3: Well, your questions for on Ingram tonight, John, I do

498
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 3: see your core will be with you in just a moment.

499
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: First one and Tony's asking I'm changing jobs. Have some

500
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 3: money in my provident fund. I can draw a trunk

501
00:25:58,160 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 3: of it as a resignation benefit. To have some credit

502
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 3: card debt. Should I use my provident fund money to

503
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 3: settle the debt?

504
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 5: I mean, I really don't like that as an option.

505
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 5: I think you know, you do that when you've just

506
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 5: run out of all other runways. So when you're canceling

507
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 5: your or taking money out of your provident fund, you're

508
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 5: paying big taxes on that. So you're already going backwards,

509
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 5: and those taxes are probably higher than what the interest

510
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 5: is that you'd pay. And all the growth that would

511
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 5: have been in your provident fund growing tax free, now

512
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 5: you lose that, So you lose the tax regrowth and

513
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,479
Speaker 5: you pay a lump some tax. So I think unless

514
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 5: you're kind of you're going to lose all your assets

515
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 5: because you're going to be foreclosed or something. They're going

516
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 5: to bankrupt you at the credit card company, if you

517
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 5: can find another way, please do.

518
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 3: That, okay, So just keep the money in the provident fund, Tony.

519
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 3: Over the longer term, it'll be worthwhile, all right, John

520
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: on the line from Craig hall Park, John, Good evening.

521
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 3: What's your question?

522
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 4: Go for it?

523
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, good evening. I've heard all of the advantages of

524
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 6: the lower interest rate. What is the disadvantage or why

525
00:26:55,560 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 6: don't they set the inflation target zero?

526
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: It's a great question, eh at zero?

527
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, thank you?

528
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: All right, Thanks, Johnny's going to listen on the radio.

529
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 5: Word now, John your example is probably Japan actually, because

530
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 5: you do want a little bit of inflation, because it's

531
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 5: a sign of a growing economy. When you have zero inflation,

532
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 5: you open the option for deflation, where for example, things

533
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 5: constantly get cheaper. So that sounds like an amazing thing,

534
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 5: but if things are getting cheaper, it means companies are

535
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 5: making less money. It means they've got less money to

536
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 5: pay salaries, they've got less money to invest in the country,

537
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 5: the company, everything goes south. So you actually want a

538
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 5: little bit of inflation, but it needs to be under control,

539
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 5: and it needs to be reasonably small and reasonably stable.

540
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 5: Then all of a sudden you get this positive spiral.

541
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 5: But at zero inflation rate. I know it sounds good

542
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 5: for most of us. You don't want our food prices

543
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,400
Speaker 5: to get higher, but actually you want to sign of growth.

544
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,360
Speaker 5: You want things to get better and bigger. And I'm

545
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 5: talking about economics now, and so a little bit of

546
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 5: inflation is kind of your your perfect point two or

547
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 5: three percent is ideal, that's what most of the good

548
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 5: developed countries have.

549
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 3: An important conversation there with Warren Ingram on personal finance

550
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 3: this week, looking at how you and investors can take

551
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: advantage of some of our emerging economic optimism and look

552
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 3: at what sectors are moving and how to benefit from

553
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 3: a hopefully and economic Upswing seven notes the best of

554
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 3: the money show from this week this week and how

555
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 3: I make my money my release Fan Sale, the CEO

556
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,360
Speaker 3: of Aspire Art, looking at the intersection of art, culture,

557
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 3: design and investment in the work she does making sure

558
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 3: that you get value from your art.

559
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 7: So way back then, when I went to university, I

560
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 7: went and studied art. I always knew I wanted to

561
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 7: somehow be involved with art, but not knowing exactly what

562
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,239
Speaker 7: to do. Back then, we didn't know about all the

563
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 7: opportunities that can and do exist, and the art industry

564
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 7: and marketers also changed quite a lot. There are a

565
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 7: lot more job opportunities. So many of us as art

566
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 7: students we would end up in other creative jobs like

567
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 7: advertising or design, or TV production and surf forth. But yes,

568
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 7: I ended up as an advertising agency, which was a

569
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 7: valuable learning curve for me. I learned about business, project management,

570
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 7: client relationships. But art was always my passion and I

571
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 7: was always looking for an opportunity to somehow get into

572
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 7: the industry.

573
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 3: Okay, so you now in the industry, and how did

574
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 3: you do that? I mean, this is always the question.

575
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 3: There's a sort of the way in because it's quite niche.

576
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 3: We've spoken to one or two people in your industry before.

577
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 3: We've spoken to an auctioneer, for example, she studied fine

578
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 3: art and kind of went from there. But to get

579
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 3: into it, how are you able to do that? Because

580
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 3: I presume you can't just go from advertising to setting

581
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 3: up your own business as you did.

582
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 7: No, No, it is quite a long process. But in

583
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 7: two thousand and seven I had an opportunity to literally

584
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 7: pull a three sixty on my own life and continue

585
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 7: postgraduate studies and literally just quit my job, moved to

586
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 7: Cape Town and finished studies. But it was while I

587
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 7: was at university I was introduced through my professor to

588
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 7: this one gallery owner and then I got a job

589
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 7: as a gallery manager or gallery curator I called it

590
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 7: back then, to work in this commercial gallery and to

591
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 7: literally start the business from the ground up. So it

592
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 7: was definitely by way of introduction and yeah, the rest

593
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 7: is just a lot of hard work. Yeah, introduction is important.

594
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 3: Okay, So I mean you're now in the space where

595
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 3: you particularly look at art as an investment, as I understand.

596
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 3: And let me start at the beginning with this, because

597
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 3: this is quite a complic topic. I mean, there's a

598
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 3: wonderful phrase, there's a wonderful philosophical question.

599
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 1: What is art? Right?

600
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 3: So you could say art is squigly drawing, art is

601
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 3: the design of a really good cell phone. Art is

602
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 3: a tennis recket. But we think of art as something

603
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 3: that exists only for itself. So what then creates value

604
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 3: in an art work?

605
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 4: You know?

606
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 7: That is actually what also put me on this path

607
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 7: because I, while I was still at university, went to

608
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 7: my first art auction. And back then also I loved

609
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 7: reading the newspapers and they would have these clips or

610
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 7: photographs of paintings that went for certain amount of money

611
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 7: at an auction. Be that oversee, and I always wondered,

612
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 7: but how is this value created? And then when I

613
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 7: pursued my postgraduate studies, it was actually the theme of

614
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 7: my thesis the creation of value in art looking at

615
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 7: auctions specifically. So it's quite interesting that everything came full

616
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 7: circle for me and now I'm working in the industry.

617
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 7: But we work with fine art. So basically it's painting, sculpture, photographs,

618
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 7: and new media works. And there is actually a clear

619
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 7: set of indicators that we use to create that value.

620
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 7: First of all, it's the artist, the position of the

621
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 7: artist in the industry, and what that artist does. Also,

622
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 7: if we look at historical works, what was their role

623
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 7: in bringing new ideas or methods to the four And

624
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 7: then it's a size. You know, you look at the

625
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 7: basic things like size, your medium, and then the age

626
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 7: of creation and then also subject matter and then the

627
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 7: real thing. That's quite I think difficult for a lot

628
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 7: of people to understand. We also look at esthetics, so

629
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 7: we basically judge a work, you know, if it's good

630
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 7: or not. They do all artists in the eye of

631
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 7: the beholder. For us, who has spent many, many years

632
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 7: looking at art and studying it, we make those esthetic

633
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 7: judgments as well. So yes, we will stand in front

634
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 7: of a painting and say is it a good pinting

635
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 7: or is it a leaf? You know, accomplished fighting.

636
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 3: So I would like to think that you and say

637
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: you're the greatest competitive If they were such a person

638
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 3: would be invited to a gatherery and asked, so look

639
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 3: at this invited to look at an artwork. Do you

640
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 3: think that you and someone else in your business would

641
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 3: agree or disagree on whether something is a good artwork

642
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 3: or not. What I'm trying to get to, I suppose

643
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 3: is is there a commonality. Without the commonality, there can

644
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 3: be no extra value.

645
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 7: Yeah, so yes, absolutely, we would to a certain point

646
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 7: agree on the value of that work. There is commonality,

647
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 7: and that is also what investors look for and or collectors.

648
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 7: So it's a lot of talking, a lot of looking,

649
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 7: but it's exactly those components of value the artists, the date,

650
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 7: the medium, the size, and then it's esthetic factors. And

651
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 7: then also we look at the market. You know, we

652
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 7: will see, okay, certain artists ten years ago sold for

653
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 7: this amount of money. What is the worth of last

654
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 7: particular work now? And there are different indexes that we follow.

655
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 7: We follow Mutual Art, Art Price, art Net, and these

656
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 7: are all databases that literally they draw all the information

657
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 7: and all the auction results. So you can basically do

658
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 7: a search on a particular artist and then put in

659
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 7: certain dates and mediums and subject matters. So yes, there's

660
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 7: definitely a commonality.

661
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 3: Okay, So now this gets a different thing. Who says okay?

662
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 3: So so why why?

663
00:34:59,120 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 6: Now?

664
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 3: I realize you study this and I haven't. But why

665
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 3: why with something like this is your does it matter?

666
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 3: Why is your voice louder than mine? Now, now let

667
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 3: me just accept first you that it should be okay,

668
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 3: but I can't tell you why. But but but I

669
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 3: mean such a charged way of asking it. But why

670
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 3: do these people's voices matter not others?

671
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,399
Speaker 7: So because we work in it, this is our job,

672
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 7: we consult people on it. We my title, Yes, I

673
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 7: am a CEO, but first and foremost summer art historian

674
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:39,280
Speaker 7: and a specialist. So it's the same why people review

675
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 7: books or review movies, films, concerts, music, it's it's the same.

676
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 7: It's we We've studied it for so long and we

677
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 7: follow it. It's actually for us quite close through religion.

678
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 7: But the art, the art world, or the art market

679
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 7: is not a new thing. It existed since the Renaissance.

680
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 7: And you know prominent families like the Medici's I all

681
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 7: collected art and then you will have their advisors as well.

682
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 7: So yes, it is. It's a very close knit community.

683
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 7: It's what we call the ecosystem. It is the industry

684
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 7: that supports all the various role players. But definitely there

685
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 7: are guide keepers, but I always say the taste makers.

686
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 7: But then generally there's just good art and less good

687
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 7: art and art that will give you a return on

688
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 7: your investment.

689
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 3: So can you see if you look at the sort

690
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 3: of did you say taste makers? I think was the

691
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 3: phrase that as tastemakers change and say, for example, a

692
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 3: particular group is in the ascendancy, they're starting to rise.

693
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 3: Can you then predict from that that certain types of

694
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 3: art will become more valuable and others less valuable.

695
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 7: Yes, absolutely, So we see that the industry and the

696
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 7: market is quite It works in a cycle. So you

697
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 7: are not necessarily going to collect or appreciate the works

698
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 7: or the art that your parents or grand grandparents collective.

699
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 7: We do see the younger people coming in. Now you

700
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 7: see people in their early let's say, late twenties, early thirties.

701
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 7: They have some disposable capital, They add an aspirational phase

702
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 7: in their life, and so they are also looking to

703
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 7: the finer things in life, and we see them starting

704
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 7: to buy art, and then we will we see them

705
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 7: engaging in our online auctions because naturally that's a medium

706
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 7: or a channel that they really like and engage with,

707
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,360
Speaker 7: so they bet a lot online. And then it's also

708
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 7: entry level works and I think they also enjoy that,

709
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 7: and then we actually guide them through the process. So

710
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 7: the road that we walk with collectors is quite a

711
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 7: long one. I mean I've worked with some collectors for

712
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 7: almost twenty years, starting their collections, growing their collections, and

713
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 7: then selling and buying again from their collections. But yeah,

714
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 7: definitely there are cycles and we can see trends and

715
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:16,280
Speaker 7: also an interesting thing for South Africa. About ten years

716
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 7: ago with all the new museums coming up in Capton,

717
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 7: there was this big focus on contemporary African art and

718
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 7: also the works from South Africa, and they also so

719
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 7: we saw a lot of figurative works coming in, a

720
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 7: lot of performative works coming in, especially from international audience

721
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,720
Speaker 7: audiences that really loved collecting these works. But then again

722
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 7: we also see now there's all the artists like a

723
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 7: France Urder, where you get people my age returning to

724
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 7: those works and appreciating them more.

725
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 3: A conversation there with Marlis Foncelle leading an art organization

726
00:38:55,640 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 3: that's all about value and.

727
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 1: Listening to the money shows the best bids.

728
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: This is unusual. This week. Graham Quadrington, the lead researcher

729
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 3: that Tomorrow Today Futures Institute. He was at the twenty

730
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 3: twenty five Dubai Futures Summit. He spoke about how focus

731
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 3: is the new currency and also how you need to

732
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 3: have deliberate attention for effective leadership. It's a fascinating conversation.

733
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 3: Here's Graham.

734
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 2: It is one of the highlights of Mayo. I'll be honest.

735
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 2: Dubai is one of the only countries in the world

736
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 2: that actually has a futures department in their government, and

737
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 2: they have a cabinet member who is responsible for the future,

738
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 2: Minister of the Future, and they environ the world's futurists

739
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: to come and join them at that wonderful Museum of

740
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 2: the Future in Dubai, and we spend a few days

741
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 2: thinking about the future, looking at scenarios, and then the

742
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 2: Dubai government produces a report which they very generously make

743
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 2: a freely available people can just do a search for it.

744
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 2: This year's conference was held last week and the report

745
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 2: will come out early next year. But right at the

746
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 2: beginning of the conference, one of the best Sessions was

747
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 2: actually by the chair of the Futures Foundation of Dubai,

748
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: and instead of coming up with a list of predictions

749
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,240
Speaker 2: for the future, I mean, as futurists, we don't predict

750
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 2: the future anyway, nobody can do that. But instead of

751
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 2: having a list of things that might happen in the

752
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 2: next year or two, he brought out these three deep

753
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 2: shifts that he believes is happening, and you're exactly right.

754
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 2: The first one is focus is the new currency that attention.

755
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 2: Our ability to obviously grab attention of the market, our

756
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 2: ability to grab our own attention and focus it, whether

757
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: that's on the to do list in front of us,

758
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 2: saw the work that needs to be done, all the

759
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 2: project we're trying to complete, or if it's just about

760
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 2: making sure that our teams and our organizations are meaningfully

761
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 2: directing their attention at the things that really matter, you know,

762
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 2: in a world of infinite inputs, protecting your focuses. I

763
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 2: actually think a key leadership skill, if nothing else. So

764
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 2: I think he's right, and I think there's a there's

765
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 2: a lot of us maybe need to take some of

766
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 2: the December break not just to recover from the year,

767
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 2: but to think about how we go into twenty twenty

768
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 2: six with a renewed attempt to focus.

769
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:43,800
Speaker 3: It's so interesting because I mean, so many things happen

770
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 3: in a day. You know, if someone asks me at

771
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 3: the end, what did you do today, it actually gets

772
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 3: quite hard to work out simply because you've done so

773
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 3: many different things. And I'm sure it's the same for you.

774
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: You know, at a personal level, this this applies for

775
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 2: sure that I just think we can get into this.

776
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 2: It's more than a hamster wheel because it isn't just

777
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 2: about activity. It's about the scatteredness of what happens, and

778
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 2: every time you dip into the news, I mean one

779
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:14,279
Speaker 2: hundred things going on at warp speed. But I think

780
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 2: at an organizational level, I really do get a sense

781
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:21,840
Speaker 2: that people are not just sort of exhausted in the

782
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 2: way you normally exhausted in the last week of November.

783
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 2: But I think we worn out by just this infinite

784
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,839
Speaker 2: change going on all around us, and we've got to

785
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 2: almost get a systems level change in twenty twenty six.

786
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 2: I think it's a good call to say, how do

787
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 2: you get attention and focus and build it into your

788
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 2: own life.

789
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 3: And you and your organization we're almost hyper connected in

790
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 3: a way. Another shift is that everyone and no one

791
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 3: is an expert.

792
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 1: I like this one.

793
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 2: I've used the line for a few years in my presentations.

794
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:04,240
Speaker 2: When nobody is allowed to say I don't know anymore.

795
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 2: You can only say I don't know yet, or you

796
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 2: can say I don't know and I don't care to know,

797
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 2: which is maybe one way to get your focus back.

798
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, we live in a world where any information

799
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: insight is available at your fingertips. AI pretends to have

800
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 2: intelligence and give us even more information than we think.

801
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 2: So at that level, everybody has the potential to have

802
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 2: access to every piece of information and therefore can at

803
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 2: least pretend or think that they are experts. On the

804
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 2: other hand, there's a danger then that nobody is an expert.

805
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 2: And I think we see this in the world around us,

806
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 2: where there is now a sense that people are questioning everything.

807
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:55,240
Speaker 2: They don't know who to believe. You know, that video

808
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:57,959
Speaker 2: comes across your newsfeed. You can't be sure that that's

809
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 2: real rather than just a I, and so there's a

810
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:08,400
Speaker 2: deep skepticism building it. And again, I think as a journalist,

811
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 2: in doing what you do, Stephen, this this must be

812
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 2: very concerning how do we overcome this, and again no answers,

813
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 2: just questions. This is one of the defining shifts of

814
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 2: our age. And in the next two or three years,

815
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 2: I think he's going to define our world quite dramatically.

816
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 2: Everyone and no one is an expert right now.

817
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 3: I think that's spot on, and a little bit of

818
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 3: information is a dangerous thing, and AI is reshaping trust

819
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 3: and connection.

820
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 2: Now, this this one was fascinating, and this one was

821
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 2: where I took took a little bit of a of

822
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 2: a jump because the actual way that the director of

823
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 2: the Future the Dubai Futures Forum phrased this is AI

824
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 2: will be your best friend. And I'm a little bit

825
00:44:56,600 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 2: skeptical about AI. Not not that it isn't part, but

826
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 2: it isn't intelligent. In my opinion, it's a mimicry of intelligence,

827
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 2: and I think it's best understood as a form of

828
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 2: machine intelligence rather than a form of artificial human intelligence.

829
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 2: But there are many, many people, and on our team

830
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 2: we have a psychologist who does quite a lot of

831
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 2: work on trying to understand this. There are many people

832
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 2: who are beginning to see large language models and AI

833
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 2: models as people. As somebody you can have a conversation with,

834
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 2: that you can interact with, that you can be friends with,

835
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 2: even so far as to say, I would say you

836
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 2: could fall in love with. And I think that there's

837
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 2: a fascinating thing going on here. I don't want to

838
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 2: be judgmental in the way I frame it, because we

839
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 2: have an epidemic of loneliness, there's difficulties with mental health,

840
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 2: and I think if any tool that would be useful

841
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 2: to help us deal with loneliness and mental health issues

842
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:05,839
Speaker 2: would be good tools. And I think there is some

843
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 2: good to be done there. But I think there's also

844
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 2: danger down that path where we replace real human interaction

845
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 2: with human machine interaction and and and no guardrails around it.

846
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 2: So for me, the response is that we need to

847
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 2: become more bionic rather than automate the world. We must

848
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 2: augment the world where human and machine sort of work

849
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 2: alongside each other rather then replace each other. But I

850
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 2: think it's a fascinating thought that maybe the next step

851
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 2: for AI is a step into the relationship space rather

852
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 2: than the just the business automation space. Fascinating.

853
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 3: Graham Quadrington there on Business Unusual, giving an update and

854
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 3: a breakdown of what we're spoken about it the to

855
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 3: Bai Futures Summit.

856
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 1: Seven Notes is the best of The Money Show from

857
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 1: this week.

858
00:46:58,200 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 3: You've been listening to the best bits of The Money

859
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,799
Speaker 3: Show digest of just some of the best interviews from

860
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 3: the show this week. If you'd like to hear more,

861
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 3: go to our website or your podcast app and search

862
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 3: for The Money Show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back

863
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 3: on The Money Show six pm on Monday. Have a

864
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 3: good weekend.