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Speaker 1: That's on the Money Show six to eight PM. Well,

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Speaker 1: First Round reporting their headline earnings up by over ten

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Speaker 1: percent in the six months to the end of December.

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Speaker 1: Headline earnings per share up eleven percent. I do wonder

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Speaker 1: how big effect a higher car sales volumes were a

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Speaker 1: strong contribution also from the F and B unit. Mary

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Speaker 1: Vilakazi is the CEO at the First Round group. Mary,

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Speaker 1: good evening and thanks so much for your time. Your

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Speaker 1: normalized earnings from F and B they were up eight percent.

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Speaker 1: You say that's mainly from targeted origination strategies. What are

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Speaker 1: you doing to get more business? What seems to be

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Speaker 1: working for you at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Stephen. So, I think this last six months

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Speaker 2: period what's been good to see is I think F

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Speaker 2: and B retails make it make it ten around. I

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Speaker 2: think that profits went up by fourteen percent. I think

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Speaker 2: overall contribute into a highroe in that business. So where

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Speaker 2: did the growth come from? I think it's a focus

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Speaker 2: on growing customer franchises and particularly in the lower end

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Speaker 2: of the market where competition is quite fierce. So I

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Speaker 2: was very pleased that, you know, to see that the

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Speaker 2: recent efforts to grow customers. They are paying off. So

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Speaker 2: overall customer growth on a for for a franchise that

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Speaker 2: is already that's already big. I think for us, that's

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Speaker 2: that is good. And then on the back of customer growth,

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Speaker 2: we get increased transitional volumes from various services and solutions

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Speaker 2: that we give our clients, and that's really the big,

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Speaker 2: the bigger driver of you know, that's what ultimately contributes

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Speaker 2: to a non interest revenue. Lending for F and B,

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Speaker 2: particularly retail has been muted, so I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: we we we asked only now starting to see an

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Speaker 2: increase in demand for for mortgages that started coming that

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Speaker 2: last quarter of the year, and and and on personal loans,

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Speaker 2: so I guess we are quite constructive that you know,

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Speaker 2: there is a bit of a turn from a consumer interview,

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Speaker 2: but it will, it will, it should hopefully manifest over

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Speaker 2: the next six months. So that six months was really

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Speaker 2: I think a function of good top land growth and

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Speaker 2: then supported by by good credit experience, so that was

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Speaker 2: also good to see. And then if in B commercial

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Speaker 2: I think has been a steady steal up performer over

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Speaker 2: a number of years, but also good to see that

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Speaker 2: we are going we are growing our customer franchise there

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Speaker 2: and lending and I guess this is also this is

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Speaker 2: a segment where we focus quite quite quite a lot

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Speaker 2: in coming up with particularly lending solutions for for SME.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, so overall good growth from commercial, good continued

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Speaker 2: growth by west Bank. I think you made reference to

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Speaker 2: motor finance. I think of the over the last two years,

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Speaker 2: if west Bank has managed to capture quite a lot

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Speaker 2: of deal flow on the back of alliances that they

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Speaker 2: went into with a lot of the Chinese o em

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Speaker 2: so and I guess that's paid off course South Africans

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Speaker 2: this high demand for those vehicles. So but pleasing performance.

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Speaker 2: I think also just showing the discipline that that west

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Speaker 2: Bank team has has applied to the strong arri and

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Speaker 2: then maybe just to finish off R and B. French

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Speaker 2: has also delivered quite a strong set of results coming

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Speaker 2: from their lending activities where they managed to improve the

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Speaker 2: margin that that we earn from those and the global

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Speaker 2: markets business also bouncing back well as well as our

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Speaker 2: private equity business making a good contribution. So yeah, overall, good,

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Speaker 2: good portfolio performance from our franchises.

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Speaker 1: I mean, are you there's a lot of talk about competition,

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Speaker 1: I mean particularly I don't imagine for F and B,

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Speaker 1: maybe for West Bank too. Do you feel any of

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Speaker 1: the heat of that competition. I mean, do you have

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Speaker 1: to change your practices a little bit just to make

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Speaker 1: sure that your offering is still competitive?

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Speaker 2: Steven, We have to do that on a regular basis.

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Speaker 2: I think that is actually something that we are very

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Speaker 2: focused on because if we don't have, you know, good

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Speaker 2: client value proposition, I think, if our solutions and offerings

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Speaker 2: are not well priced, you know, there are definitely a

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Speaker 2: lot of alternatives that that that customers can get. So

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Speaker 2: we are very focused on making sure that we we

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Speaker 2: are innovative and also that we are competitive. So I

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Speaker 2: mean on the retails. On the retail front, I guess

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Speaker 2: you hear every day about number of banks growing their

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Speaker 2: number of customers, and for us, it's still quite important

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Speaker 2: to grow the number of customers. But also the customers

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Speaker 2: that you know, not only have a transitional bank account,

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Speaker 2: but do a lot more in our space. So I

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Speaker 2: think it's yeah, we're still being able to attract that

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Speaker 2: and hold onto those clients. That's valuable for us. And

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Speaker 2: then commercial and the business banking side, I think it's

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Speaker 2: also a highly contested space. You know, but there Fortunately,

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Speaker 2: it's not a I think it's a market that we

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Speaker 2: we think that we improvement in the structural reform execution

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Speaker 2: and and and and then the corporate cycle that we

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Speaker 2: are starting to see emerge where the creates extension is

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Speaker 2: showing that you know, corporate are back to lending again.

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Speaker 2: We think all of that should be supportive of increased

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Speaker 2: SME activities. So they I guess we are not. It's

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Speaker 2: not about just protecting the franchise and and and and

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Speaker 2: and defending. But I think there is opportunity really for

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Speaker 2: for more players in that space. So but yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think the key thing is making sure that we've got

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Speaker 2: relevant plan value propositions and we are looking at after

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Speaker 2: our customer as well.

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Speaker 1: Your operation in Botswana battling a little bit. The economy

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Speaker 1: is in trouble. There's been a collapse in demand for

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Speaker 1: diamonds and it's a small part of your overall portfolio.

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Speaker 1: I do worry that maybe the Botswana economy is not

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Speaker 1: actually going to recover for a long time. That'll have

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Speaker 1: an impact on you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we are the biggest bank, I think actually the

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Speaker 2: biggest business in Botswana, so it's certainly Yeah, I think that.

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Speaker 3: We we we.

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Speaker 2: That the government and liquidity stress transmits to us quite

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Speaker 2: directly and so look, we are constructive on the outlook

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Speaker 2: of for for for that, for for Botsona as a country,

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Speaker 2: because fortunately there's starting point I guess from a from

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Speaker 2: from from from a from a country point of view

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Speaker 2: is a bit higher than most countries start when the

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Speaker 2: experienced distress and they've got opportunities to implement structural reforms.

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Speaker 2: If you see the benefits of Zambia, Ghana and Nigeria

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Speaker 2: are able to to bank today, you know that should

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Speaker 2: be a good example I think to the Botsona government

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Speaker 2: around the importance of aarly structural reforms. We left them

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Speaker 2: too late for South Africa. But okay say not starting

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Speaker 2: to take to take shape. But yeah, so I guess

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Speaker 2: we yeah, we we we We are hopeful that some

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Speaker 2: structural reforms will be implemented in Botswana because that is

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Speaker 2: what the country requires.

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Speaker 1: The situation around you in the UK also complicated. You

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Speaker 1: had to put a side was a five point eight

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Speaker 1: billion round because of the sort of miss selling issue.

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Speaker 1: It's not just you, of course, it's it's other operators

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Speaker 1: there too. Are you worry the final findings of the

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Speaker 1: Financial Conduct Authority in the UK might actually go against you.

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Speaker 1: I mean, for a long time you've sort of been

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Speaker 1: very confident in public about this. Are you beginning to

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Speaker 1: have a few more sleepless light sleepless nights over it?

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Speaker 2: I think not more than in the past. And I

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Speaker 2: guess what's also encouraging is that we are getting to

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Speaker 2: the end because the FAA has announced that they will

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Speaker 2: they will have the readress scheme out in the market

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Speaker 2: before the end of March, so I guess you know

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Speaker 2: that will provide certainty around what aspects to require readdress

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Speaker 2: and how much it will cost. So in this six

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Speaker 2: month period we haven't set up any provisions. So the

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Speaker 2: number you quoted is up. It was the number two

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Speaker 2: June twenty twenty five. We are waiting to just see

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Speaker 2: what the final readress scheme is going to cost and

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Speaker 2: then we will take it from there.

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Speaker 1: Mary Lacasi, thank you so much for your time. Ready

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Speaker 1: to appreciate it, CEO at the first round group on

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Speaker 1: the Money.

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Speaker 4: Show, No Money Show it.

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Speaker 1: For confirmation today from Cornel Plus, the owners of DStv

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Speaker 1: that they're shutting down the streaming service Showmas Tinas Ferreira.

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Speaker 1: As you know, it is the critic industry expert Tina's

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Speaker 1: good evening max hemorrhaging money for a long time. I

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Speaker 1: suppose in the end a good idea to just put

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Speaker 1: it out of its misery.

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Speaker 4: Three point nine billion rant and some change just evaporating.

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Speaker 4: Think of what could have maybe been done with that money.

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Speaker 4: And now, after sort of the other content cuts, the

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Speaker 4: next tree in the woods to fall is the streamer

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Speaker 4: after ten eleven years since it started, now also getting

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Speaker 4: the ax and also halving a once again of what

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Speaker 4: might else still come and happen during the course of

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Speaker 4: the year as Canal continues their aggressive cost cutting.

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Speaker 1: I mean, MAC surely had quite a large number of

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Speaker 1: South African subscribers. There was content there, A lot of

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Speaker 1: it had come through a DStv. What about the model

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Speaker 1: just didn't work.

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Speaker 4: It was almost like a pastiche I wouldn't say, like

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Speaker 4: a copy and paste version of the Netflix.

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Speaker 5: But they.

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Speaker 4: Sort of saw the writing on the wall with streamers,

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Speaker 4: and then Multi Choice decided we also need to start

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Speaker 4: and push the streaming service out, maybe a bit haphazardly,

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Speaker 4: maybe a little bit of miseducation of not understanding and

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Speaker 4: throwing money and more money after bad money, and maybe

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Speaker 4: in the execution they falted. And now we sit with

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Speaker 4: the situation where another company bought this company and decided

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Speaker 4: that until yeah and no further in terms of the

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Speaker 4: loss making, let's cut the losses and end the streaming

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Speaker 4: future of show Max.

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Speaker 1: Cano Plus I have told us they're going to launch.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't have a name yet, but everyone

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Speaker 1: callses a sort of super app, so I presume it

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Speaker 1: would include DStv channels that would include Netflix or maybe

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Speaker 1: Disney Plus. Is that going to work? That's still somewhere away.

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Speaker 4: I think it will mostly remain in the way that

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Speaker 4: it is at the moment. But what people might not

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Speaker 4: realize is that last year Canal Plus signed a new

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Speaker 4: partnership with Netflix in Francophone Africa the countries up there

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Speaker 4: on our continent and bundle Netflix into their offering. And

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised if we're year late in the

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Speaker 4: year that they just extending that existing partnership with Netflix

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Speaker 4: into the rest of Africa, and then we get Netflix

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Speaker 4: bundled instead of Canals sort of doing the groundwork of

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Speaker 4: trying their own app, and all of those kinds of things.

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Speaker 4: They just sort of aggregate and kind of execute better

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Speaker 4: on what Multi Choice always said it wanted to do

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Speaker 4: by sort of bundling traditional streaming services like your app

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Speaker 4: and your Netflix and giving that is to the es

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Speaker 4: TOV subscribers under one price.

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Speaker 1: So the whole point of the Canoe Plus deal with DStv,

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Speaker 1: as we understood it all, the sort of motivation for

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Speaker 1: it was scale. And you've got the operations across Europe.

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Speaker 1: Now you've got the operations across Africa. You would think

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Speaker 1: if scale was the issue, that does help you in

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Speaker 1: content discussions, sure, but it would also help you develop

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Speaker 1: an app for Europe and Africa that would run together.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to end up like that.

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Speaker 4: I think they're big thing now after basically overpaying by

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Speaker 4: quite a lot for Multi Choice, now you are on

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Speaker 4: that next step, which is aggressive cost cutting. So you're

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Speaker 4: not really looking in terms of doing more and expanding,

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Speaker 4: you're looking at the balance sheet and seeing where you

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Speaker 4: can cut costs. Next week, on the eleventh of March

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Speaker 4: is the first full year result of Canal after incorporating

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Speaker 4: Multi Choice, and then in black and white they have

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Speaker 4: to explain to investors why is this on the balance sheet?

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Speaker 4: Why why are we making losses? Yen there and sort

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Speaker 4: of the big things to cut are sort of starting

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Speaker 4: in content and then with things like show Max. So

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Speaker 4: they're not going to now look at really like expanding.

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Speaker 4: They are looking at all of the big ticket items

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Speaker 4: on the combined balance sheet and what they can do

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Speaker 4: away with.

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Speaker 1: And at the same time, one of the big cash

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Speaker 1: cows sort of live sport, that market is evolving and changing.

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Speaker 1: Netflix has moved into some of that into North America.

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Speaker 1: But there are also rumblings I heard for the first

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Speaker 1: time yesterday that Sorrow might even have you know, stream

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Speaker 1: rugby matches off a Sorrow app Why.

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Speaker 4: Not the shape of things to come, I'm here at

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Speaker 4: a Joe Berg film festival and producer after producer is

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Speaker 4: coming up to me and saying, my contract hasn't been renewed.

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Speaker 4: I'm in season four my show for Cakenit or Zunzie

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Speaker 4: Magic or Emit. So it's across the board. It doesn't

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Speaker 4: matter whether your show is profitable or high rating. So

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Speaker 4: what every whatever, I think, every single thing that remotely

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Speaker 4: to do with TSTV is on the cards and potentially

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Speaker 4: on the chopping block. Content that might go away, that

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Speaker 4: migrate to other apps, orce services, or might just be canceled.

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Speaker 1: Jiness Verra, thank you so much. Ready to appreciate it,

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Speaker 1: tins Verra, as you know, the industry expert, also of

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Speaker 1: course a TV critic. Twenty six minutes now after six

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Speaker 1: don't forget why you keep going back to streaming service

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Speaker 1: seventeen seven two one seven.

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Speaker 6: O two The money show the market right.

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Speaker 1: More TONI is an analyst at ninety one Roy good evening.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with first Rand. Quite strong results and maybe

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Speaker 1: also benefiting a little bit from increased sort of economic activity.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, Stephen. Well the resultso actually in lane expectations,

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Speaker 5: what I think the market leaked was that they maintained

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Speaker 5: their gaidence for hateen growth for the follier. Remember this

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Speaker 5: was just a result for the first six months plus.

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Speaker 5: They increased their dividend by about eighteen percent, just showing

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Speaker 5: what confidence they have in the market performance. And then

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Speaker 5: when you look at it from a divisional perspective, all

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Speaker 5: the essay businesses did well. They grew west Bank, west Bank,

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Speaker 5: first National Bank in RMB. The only one that went

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Speaker 5: backwards was the UK business, but all around quite a

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Speaker 5: solid performance in power platinum.

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Speaker 1: I mean a tough day to release some parlor is

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Speaker 1: to release platinum results. They profits were what five times

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Speaker 1: what they were in the six months of the first

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Speaker 1: of their financial year the year before in the same period,

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Speaker 1: but obviously there was a big platinum set of today

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Speaker 1: and they got hammed.

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Speaker 5: No, absolutely, I mean the results from an operational perspective

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Speaker 5: were exceptional. I mean, you clearly expected the impact of

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Speaker 5: the higher PGM prices, but even from a pure operational perspective,

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Speaker 5: they did very well, generating significant and amounts of cash,

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Speaker 5: increasing the dividing, stating the interim dividend, the balance sheet

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Speaker 5: strengthened meaningfully, and from a production perspective, they maintained their

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Speaker 5: guidance for the next for the next period, so peritionally

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Speaker 5: really good. But like you say, timing is everything. I

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Speaker 5: think the market had anticipated these results, So you Releasia

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Speaker 5: results on a day when there's a general sell off,

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Speaker 5: you'll get hit that way. But I think as student

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Speaker 5: investors look through sell off such a reason see opportunity and.

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Speaker 1: Some of the insurers are down, some of the financial

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Speaker 1: shares too. Obviously, the conflict in the Middle East weighing

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Speaker 1: on them. There's a sort of relationship between share price,

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Speaker 1: bond yields, and what's happening around Iran.

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Speaker 5: So what's basically happened is, before the Iran conflict broke out,

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Speaker 5: those general confidence that economic growth was coming through and

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Speaker 5: that inflation would come down, so it seemed very predictable.

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Speaker 5: I think what has happened with this conflagration is that

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Speaker 5: there's now serious doubts as to whether growth continues depending

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Speaker 5: on how long this whole thing lasts, and whether inflation

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Speaker 5: remains contained across the world. Now, in a world such

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Speaker 5: as that, you've already seen the risk ofst sentiment, which

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Speaker 5: is basically people selling off anything they consider risky, such

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Speaker 5: as shed and then going into bonds that they consider

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Speaker 5: that they consider relatively riskless because those are asshured cash

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Speaker 5: flows into the future. So initially, what you tend to

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Speaker 5: see with this is that there's a mathematical relationship between

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Speaker 5: the price of bonds and the yields. So the yield

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Speaker 5: is basically just the coupon over the market value, so

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Speaker 5: the cash that you earn every six months over the

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Speaker 5: price that you would pay for you to buy the bond. There,

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Speaker 5: when bond prices go up the yields go down. But

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Speaker 5: at times when you go risk off and therese greater

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Speaker 5: demands than and yields go up, then places come down.

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Speaker 5: So it's diametrically opposite. It's a pure mathematical relationship. But

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Speaker 5: I think it reflects people wanting higher returns because the

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Speaker 5: environment has become riskier.

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Speaker 1: I mean in the middle of that. Yet Sanlam today

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Speaker 1: they put out a sort of statement. They said their

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Speaker 1: new business was growing strongly, but then they also said

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Speaker 1: the headline earnings were lower because I think the phrase

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Speaker 1: was structural sort of changes in corporate activity. And obviously

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Speaker 1: there is the deal with ninety one, as you know

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Speaker 1: better than me, Roy, but it was still I wasn't

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Speaker 1: quite sure what to make of it. The market didn't

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Speaker 1: seem to like it.

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Speaker 5: So an interesting one, and these insurance company results are

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Speaker 5: complicated on a good day. But I think the way

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Speaker 5: you have to look at this is the results were

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Speaker 5: comparing twenty twenty twenty five on twenty twenty four. In

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty four, their earnings were call it not exaggerated,

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Speaker 5: but they are higher because of a lot of corporate

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Speaker 5: action around the Indian business and the alliance and all

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Speaker 5: of that. While in twenty twenty five they didn't have

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Speaker 5: any of that, so they were coming off quite a

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Speaker 5: high base. Then they're very happy about the new business wins,

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Speaker 5: but they're coming at much lower margins because those are

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Speaker 5: change in business mix. Because of the movement in bundials,

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Speaker 5: people started buying different products, which and a whole lot

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Speaker 5: less for them, so it was much harder for the

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Speaker 5: company to beat a hurdle set in the previous year.

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Speaker 5: So yes, they're guiding to earnings going backwards, but like

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Speaker 5: you said, when you look at it operationally, they're actually

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Speaker 5: not so bad. So if you use twenty twenty five

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Speaker 5: as your base and start looking forward on a more

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Speaker 5: normalized basis, then you wouldn't be so concerned. But clearly,

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Speaker 5: when you read the results and they're guiding arnings going

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Speaker 5: down in double digits, the first thing you do is

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Speaker 5: panic or or believe that this badue is em better

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Speaker 5: than Like I said, the insurance company earnings are complicated.

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Speaker 1: On a good day, Roy Matni, thanks so much. Really

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Speaker 1: to appreciate it's analyst at ninety one Stephen has on

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Speaker 1: x at at Stephen thirteen minutes to seven, good evening,

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Speaker 1: A big event in London today. The Finance Man Seatana

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Speaker 1: was there, the Reserve Bank Governor le Cerajo, CEOs A,

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Speaker 1: Transnit and Escum. They're making the investment case for South Africa.

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Speaker 1: It's the JAC Investor Macroeconomic Summit. Kommche Mudlah is the

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Speaker 1: s CEO at Investor SA Commerce. Good evening really to

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Speaker 1: appreciate the time. How was the message received today? What

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Speaker 1: kind of questions were investors asking?

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Speaker 7: Good evening to you and it was really a very

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Speaker 7: good day for for SA inc. I think we had

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Speaker 7: over eighteen institutional investors present in the room represent.

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Speaker 5: YEA.

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Speaker 1: Seems to have lost Commission Mudla. They're not entirely sure

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Speaker 1: what happened that see if we're able to get him

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Speaker 1: back on the line. Might just have to read dialum quickly.

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Speaker 1: But seems to have just literally disappeared. Not quite sure

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Speaker 1: what's happened to that link. But I'm fairly optimistic we'll

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Speaker 1: get him back and just to continue the conversation. We

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Speaker 1: have had this once or twice, as you know, let's

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Speaker 1: just see if he's there. All right, Commission, I think

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Speaker 1: you're back with us now, Sorry about.

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Speaker 5: That, no problem now.

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Speaker 7: Just in answer to your question, we had over eighteen

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Speaker 7: institutional investors represented in the room today with all of

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Speaker 7: the government ministers that you refer to, and these investors

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Speaker 7: represent over twenty nine trillion dollars of assets under management,

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Speaker 7: so real capital allocators in the room today and essay

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Speaker 7: INC has a really good story to tell. I think

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Speaker 7: when we look at all of the fundamental improvements in

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Speaker 7: terms of metrics, from energy improvements in the energy availability factor,

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Speaker 7: transport logistics, the financial governance coming off the FATF gray list,

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Speaker 7: as well as looking at the strengthening of the rand

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Speaker 7: and the improvement of tenure government bond deals. So we

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Speaker 7: take all of those factors and the significance of the

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Speaker 7: structural reform program in its entirety across all of the

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Speaker 7: sectors that it's now operating in the message that investors

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Speaker 7: took home this afternoon was one that we've moved from

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Speaker 7: a significant possession of where I think South Africa has

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Speaker 7: been in the last ten years on the back foot,

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Speaker 7: where we were averaging point seven percent GDP growth, onto

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Speaker 7: a platform where we're starting to see GDP growth lift

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Speaker 7: to over one percent in all our cued for the

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Speaker 7: year twenty five and for the year twenty six projected

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Speaker 7: to do one and a half percent with an ongoing

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Speaker 7: trajectory up. So I think the message delivered by the

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Speaker 7: Finance Minister, by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, as

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Speaker 7: well as Minister Flabisi and Minister Dean Macpherson and Deputy

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Speaker 7: Minister Alvin Burtus was one that we open for business,

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Speaker 7: that South Africa has created a depth of institutional strength

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Speaker 7: now to have the right investment climate foreign investment.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the world's got a lot more complicated in

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Speaker 1: the last few years. Do you think South Africa is

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Speaker 1: sort of navigating those changes?

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Speaker 6: Probably?

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Speaker 1: I mean, our investors happy with what we're doing. I

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Speaker 1: mean lots of talk, slightly uncomfortably, I suppose about our

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Speaker 1: presumed or whatever our relationship with Iran is. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't even know where to begin to describe it,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, are there concerns about that?

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Speaker 7: Absolutely, and some of that was raised, and I think

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Speaker 7: the most important point that came through it was, you know,

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Speaker 7: we compared the situation as an emerging market and Governor

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Speaker 7: Leceta gosn Yago dealt with that. He spoke about when

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Speaker 7: the war in the Ukraine broke out in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 7: and the significant deterioration in the rand off the back

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Speaker 7: of that and now emerging market. It's gott not post

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Speaker 7: the declaration of war between the Ukraine and Russia. Fast

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Speaker 7: forward to February twenty six and you've noticed, Yes, there's

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Speaker 7: been a slighter toeration in the rand, but all of

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Speaker 7: the fundamentals in SA are holding us in place. You know,

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Speaker 7: the rand is generally held up. Obviously, we've been supported

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Speaker 7: by the commodity cycle and particularly the rise in the

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Speaker 7: price of gold, and that the US dollar is not

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Speaker 7: perceived as the soul safe haven in a time of crisis.

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Speaker 7: And I think that's been some of the significant changes

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Speaker 7: if you look forward from twenty two to twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I mean in a strange way. I hate to look

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Speaker 1: at it like this because there's a conflict, but this

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Speaker 1: could be a little bit of an opportunity. We're trending

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Speaker 1: the right way just as people are looking for a

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Speaker 1: place to invest in. Other places they used to put

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Speaker 1: their money aren't looking so good. We're trending in the

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Speaker 1: right direction basically, very.

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Speaker 7: Much, Sir Stephen. And I think that was pointed out

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Speaker 7: by a number of the investors, and I think the

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Speaker 7: debate has really shifted to the fact that we have

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Speaker 7: such a strong framework for investors to be attracted to,

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Speaker 7: that you have the rule of law, that you have

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Speaker 7: a functioning legal system, and where we can see that

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Speaker 7: investors are acknowledging that the risk premium on investing in

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Speaker 7: South Africa has reduced significantly, that we are able to

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Speaker 7: attract capital inflows. And you know, one of the interesting

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Speaker 7: facts highlighted by Leila for Ree, the outgoing CEO of

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Speaker 7: the JSE, was that the JSE in the current period

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Speaker 7: or in the period to the end of your December

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Speaker 7: twenty five, had actually seen foreign investment increase from twenty

438
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 7: eight percent to i think earlier this year thirty four percent,

439
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 7: So foreign investment in the JC again a significant indicator.

440
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 7: And then similarly Dean Ready, the incoming CEO, had noted

441
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 7: that the JSE has been in the to date one

442
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 7: of the top three performing stock exchanges. So the fact

443
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 7: that we are able to attract those sorts of capital

444
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 7: inflows as an emerging market is obviously a very good indicator.

445
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 7: And secondly, there was consensus in the room that you

446
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 7: should be seeing an increase in terms of our own

447
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 7: investment grade rating so at the end of last year

448
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 7: we saw that coming through from SMP. Moody's will be

449
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 7: making their decision early in May. But if all of

450
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 7: these factors continue in the same trajectory and in the

451
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 7: same line as we're currently seeing, we would expect further

452
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 7: improvement in our investment grading. And hopefully I returned to

453
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 7: investment grade at an earlier date than was initially protected.

454
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 7: And I think that then opens the doors to be

455
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 7: the proper intersection between private capital into fixed capital formation

456
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 7: as well as public sector unlocking any of the public

457
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 7: private partnerships.

458
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: Commesh, thank you so much. Ready to appreciate the time

459
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 1: on what I know is a busy day. Commission Woudla

460
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: is the CEO at investig Essay.

461
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 8: The Money Show with Stephen Freutzez is brought to you

462
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 8: by APPS Corporate and Investment Backing.

463
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 5: Refined performance is a measure of discipline.

464
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 9: That's how we're invested in your story as a rated

465
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 9: their FFP.

466
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: Five minutes to seven on Monday, you heard from the

467
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: CEO at Shopwright, Peter Eilbrecht. He was explaining they have

468
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty two containers stuck in the sewers

469
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: Canal because of the conflict in the Middle East, and

470
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: while some of our importers may be stuck and waiting

471
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 1: for products, our exporters are beginning to get a little

472
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: worried about this as well. The chair of Exporters Western Capers,

473
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 1: Terry Gale at Terry Good Evening, are some shipping lines

474
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 1: already saying, actually, we're not going to take produce, We're

475
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 1: not going to take South African products into that part

476
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 1: of the world.

477
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 10: Yes, Good evening, Stephen, I'm fort to you that is

478
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 10: quite the case as well. And in particular we're reaching

479
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 10: the situation now that we have fruit on the water

480
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 10: and that has obviously left prior to the war starting

481
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 10: on Friday. And actually, what happens to this fruit that

482
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:15,239
Speaker 10: is now on the water. You can't do anything with it.

483
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 10: It cannot be transferred to another country or anything like

484
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 10: because of five A. Sanitary requirements differ from country to country.

485
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 10: And in particular, we opened up a very good market

486
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 10: in the Middle East. We had a very good market

487
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 10: going with our agricultural products and our fruit going into

488
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 10: Dubai in particular, as I say most Middle East countries.

489
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 10: We now sit with a problem that a lot of

490
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 10: this is on the water. There is one good site.

491
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 10: It is that the majority of the peaks deciduous season

492
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 10: is over our stone fruit and we are now doing

493
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 10: apples and pears and the grape cystell moving as well,

494
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,959
Speaker 10: so it's not peak season. However, there are certainly export

495
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 10: boxes that are stuck, and the shipping lines of already

496
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 10: implied that are not going to go to this route.

497
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 10: They're canceled, they're not accepting any bookings. They're not actually

498
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 10: their vessels are going to be there. We don't know

499
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 10: actually what's going to happen from day to day at

500
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 10: the moment.

501
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 1: I mean the problem with this is things back up.

502
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 1: I mean it's like oil. So because oil can't be

503
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: exported from that region, there's no place to store the

504
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 1: oil that's being produced on a minute by minute basis.

505
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 1: You have to stop production. Takes a lot longer to

506
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 1: restart that. What happens to all the produce that's been

507
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 1: grown specifically to be sold? I imagine those fridges in

508
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 1: Cape Town get full too.

509
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 10: Yeah, that is, as I say, a problem. What were

510
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 10: that we don't know? As as I have just previously

511
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 10: mentioned the fact that can they sell if the product

512
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 10: is still here, has not left here. Can they re

513
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 10: rootless containers, but they would have to follow the proper

514
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 10: procedure for the country that they're going to. For arguments

515
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 10: that containers destined for Dubai, we cannot suddenly move them

516
00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 10: to India as an example, because India's requirements complete different

517
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 10: to what Dubai or Middle East requirements are as well.

518
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 10: So we are going to have an overflow of food

519
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 10: sitting on our key side that we wouldn't know what

520
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 10: to do. That's why we actually are obviously hoping that

521
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 10: they all ins shortly, quickly and not violently either. We

522
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 10: live in that out but we don't know from day

523
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 10: to day.

524
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: I mean, what options are They very difficult to suddenly

525
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 1: go and find other trading partners. I must just say

526
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: other exporters will find themselves in the same boat. Obviously

527
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 1: I'm talking about other countries. I suppose the problem is

528
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: that there's almost nothing anyone can do.

529
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 10: It's actually it's not a nice situation to be in.

530
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 10: As I said, we've done lots of market and we've

531
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 10: grown the market, and just listening to the previous gentlemen

532
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 10: who spoke as well, I think the gentleman from shop Right.

533
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 10: He gat a very positive outlook on the potentials as well,

534
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 10: which was very interesting to you. However, ours is what

535
00:29:58,560 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 10: do we do with the food? What do we do

536
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 10: with the product that actually either is booked or is

537
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 10: on the water as well? We as are own a

538
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 10: small company also that mainly focuses on exports, exports all

539
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 10: over the world, and Dubai was quite a big market

540
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 10: for us. Now we're saying we actually, fortunately we're doing

541
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 10: quite a big project in Dubai. Fortunately it hasn't left

542
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 10: yet so we can hold back on that. But however,

543
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 10: there is a situation. As I have mentioned, the fruit

544
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 10: is there, the fruit is actually on the water. What

545
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 10: do we do with that? It's almost a rhetorical question.

546
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 10: At the moment, we don't know. And as I said,

547
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,479
Speaker 10: the shipping lines as well. The problem also is that

548
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 10: the shipping lines have implemented emergency emergency fuel charges with

549
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 10: immediate effect, so your costs are going up by the

550
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 10: time the goods get there. I respect to what the

551
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 10: situation is some days to paper and it tends to

552
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 10: be either be the shipper or ultimately the importer. So

553
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 10: the costs are going up all the time as well.

554
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: Erry Gail, Thanks you so much. Sharing the exports Western

555
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 1: kp up something that's very difficult to fix. You can't

556
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: really do anything. Maybe you just have to sort of wait.

557
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 1: But that's hardly, hardly encouraging. We'll talk more about the

558
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: streaming industry in a moment. Don't forget Also investment school tonight.

559
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: How to keep your emotions in check during times like this.

560
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: Yere at the Money Show, Good Evening, seven o'clock.

561
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 6: The Money Show take Thursday.

562
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,479
Speaker 1: In conversation with Stephen Crutis is brought to you by

563
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: Microsoft Empowering Essay through the Mission Next Equity Equivalent Investment Program. Well,

564
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 1: in the beginning, it seemed pretty obvious that audiences were

565
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: moving from TV to online streaming. TV audiences dropped and

566
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: they haven't requvered, but they're not always on streaming. We've

567
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 1: been talking about show Max all day. So you put

568
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: Mallella Zondie. There's our tech expert, and he joins us now,

569
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: so you put Allelo Good Evening. So we've been hearing

570
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 1: about Show Max and we understand the competition they were under,

571
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: but some of the things are happening in other places.

572
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 1: So in the years you've got paramount Plus and HBO

573
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 1: Max they're emerging into one platform. Is the same thing?

574
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 3: Well, hello, Stephen, and yes, totally it's will be similar

575
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 3: things because what you're realizing in the United States of

576
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 3: America is that uh A Paramount has gone and done

577
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 3: a takeover of Warner Brothers, which used to make movies

578
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 3: for a very long time, so they dominated in that

579
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 3: in that sector. So because of that takeover, you would

580
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 3: think that in the way that it's happening here in

581
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 3: South Africa with Canal Plus having done a takeover of

582
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 3: Multi Choice, that there would be restructuring. And part of

583
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 3: that restructuring is that you can't have two streaming services

584
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 3: done by what is now one company. So a merger

585
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 3: then would be expected in that particular area as well.

586
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 3: And it's quite interesting that it's it's pretty it's all

587
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 3: across the world in what used to be and still

588
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 3: probably is the biggest film sector in the world, but

589
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 3: yet their issues are pretty much similar to ours.

590
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: I mean, other services have closed recently. I mean there

591
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: was questions there was Telcom one, remember that there was

592
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 1: Vodacom had one. Where are the audiences going?

593
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 3: What audiences seem to be the clip that you played

594
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 3: it's a fragmentation because there are a lot of these

595
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 3: streaming services. But we also need to realize that it's

596
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 3: not the traditional film or the traditional TV players that

597
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 3: are now enabling people to consume content. There are other

598
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 3: platforms and they're available all over online spaces that have

599
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 3: not been in this traditional TV space that are now

600
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 3: available on making contents available. Think social media, for example,

601
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: which is where a lot of people spend their time.

602
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 3: We're even here that South Africans spent probably the most

603
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 3: amount of time on social media when you compare them

604
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 3: to many as nations. And so they've also enabled a

605
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 3: video as well, and short V videos as well, which

606
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 3: have also even changed how movies are produced because movies

607
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 3: are now or movie producers have realized this concentration is

608
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 3: taken away. People don't have time to try and figure

609
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 3: out complex storylines anymore because the time is taken away

610
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 3: by these small screens and shorts videos, and they have

611
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 3: to cater to that in how they produce movies as well.

612
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 1: So, I mean, what I've been fascinated by is the

613
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 1: more and more evidence that more people are watching YouTube

614
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: on their couch. They're sitting at home and watching it

615
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 1: on their big screen TV. One is YouTube doing so well?

616
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 1: And I realized the shorts is a big thing, but

617
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 1: is it just not?

618
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 3: It's multiple things, right, because multiple research that's been done

619
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 3: is that gen Z, for example, that's consumed documentaries. You

620
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 3: would have thought so that younger generations and interested in documentaries,

621
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 3: but they consumed these documentaries on YouTube. And you mentioned

622
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 3: shorts just now that also they got that from TikTok

623
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 3: because TikTok came with short videos and they also then

624
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 3: started producing short videos too. And you would think of

625
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 3: podcasts as well, because they have also said that podcasts

626
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 3: are their best performers, so podcasts are also so I

627
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 3: suppose because it's a one stop shop for multiple things,

628
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 3: it also enables people who haven't traditionally produced contents because

629
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 3: these traditional platforms that are some of which are shutting

630
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 3: down now come from a big TV players who probably

631
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 3: still use methods that uh in a way archaic now

632
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 3: because of how TV used to function when it had

633
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 3: no competition, when they would have expectations of what a

634
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 3: production company is, what content must look like. Whereas if

635
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 3: you find a platform like YouTube, yes you'd find TV

636
00:35:55,360 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 3: producers going into that space. You'd find a news produce

637
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: just uploading their content on those platforms too. But you'd

638
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 3: also find an ordinary Stephen Whorts who was out at

639
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 3: the beach and spot at something and decided to upload

640
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 3: it on YouTube. You'd find a surfer, for example, who

641
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 3: comes in from a different territory, comes to South Africa

642
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 3: and documents his experience when he was exploring South Africa.

643
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 3: So it's because you can get multiple types of content,

644
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 3: the professional kind as well as the type that's done

645
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 3: by the ordinary person on a single platform.

646
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 1: Okay, okay, So that makes a lot of sense. And

647
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people also just go through

648
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: sort of old movie clips because it's fun. So now

649
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,720
Speaker 1: you have people they produce content, right, and they produce

650
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 1: it for TV and that to move away from TV.

651
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 1: Now streaming platforms are merging or shutting down. I mean

652
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,800
Speaker 1: the producers and at one point we had quite a

653
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: big TV production industry in South Africa. I mean they're badly.

654
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 3: And it does seem like it's going to be a

655
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 3: continuous battle because there's also the next point in all

656
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 3: these battles that are so there now fewer spaces where

657
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 3: their content can be and also there's AI also now

658
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 3: that's also taking some eyes away and social media, which

659
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 3: has also taken either way changes. It will change the

660
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 3: nature of the film industry and the TV industry in

661
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 3: South Africa because it doesn't seem like we know the

662
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 3: one place that audiences are because when we thought we

663
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:38,760
Speaker 3: did know where audiences were, we're transitioning to it seems

664
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 3: like audiences either are no longer there or we're overestimated that.

665
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so interesting to see how there's all changes

666
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: and you still need more content. I mean I realized AI,

667
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: but also AI slop. I mean audiences could be more

668
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 1: discerning or just more distracted. I know Matt Damon was

669
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: talking about how films have to change with people on

670
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 1: following as you say, a storyline and then kind of

671
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: what's the point really.

672
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 3: Well, that's the thing. So it also tests creativity, right

673
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,919
Speaker 3: and what a feature film actually is because if you're

674
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 3: going to sit for an hour and a half. Thing

675
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 3: about for example, when you're sitting with the kids and

676
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 3: watching a film for an hour and a half, and

677
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 3: whether they can concentrate as much as we would back

678
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 3: in the day when you're watching the films we loved

679
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 3: when we're growing up. So and also the repetition in

680
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 3: the storylines because they know that there are multiple screens

681
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 3: that they are contending with. They're not just focusing on

682
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 3: the one big screen or as they're focusing on the

683
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 3: one big screen, but the mind might also be thinking

684
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 3: about the small screen that they might also go and

685
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 3: pick up and fetch and it's taking their eyes away.

686
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 3: So it needs to I suppose some new type of

687
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 3: creativity that's constantly going to get the ice back on

688
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 3: the primary screen. Or maybe the primary screen is no

689
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 3: longer the big screen, and that's what we also need

690
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 3: to understand, that the primary screen has become the small

691
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 3: screen and maybe content including film maybe also needs to

692
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 3: be produced for the primary screen now, which is the

693
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:09,240
Speaker 3: small screen.

694
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: Sure, super Malela, thank you, Supermolella Zondie our tech expert

695
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: ready to appreciate the time. Microsoft South Africa has launched

696
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: Mission Next, a high impact equity equivalent investment program calling

697
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:25,959
Speaker 1: on South Africa's most ambitious, future ready black owned smmes

698
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 1: to own their next phase of growth. Future Next forms

699
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 1: part of Microsoft's commitment to empower establish black owned businesses

700
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 1: with the tools, skills, and global tier technology required for

701
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 1: rapid scaling small business focus is brought to you by Capitech.

702
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 1: Startup or scale up with Capitech the business bank for

703
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 1: everyone or so often when you're running a small business,

704
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 1: it's the things outside your control that can have a

705
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 1: really big impact on you. And the one thing that

706
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: can hurt you now is higher oil prices and then

707
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: higher fuel prices or because of what's happening so far

708
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 1: away from where we are. Tente is the managing director

709
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: for Advantage Advisory. How's it good to talk again? I

710
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 1: mean it's a classic case, right a company can be

711
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 1: operating quite well, something comes along and suddenly your costs

712
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,800
Speaker 1: profile changes completely.

713
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 8: Gretive and actually it's spot You know. What is interesting

714
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 8: is that businesses can be able to absorb a couple

715
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:27,839
Speaker 8: of business shops right.

716
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 5: However, when it.

717
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:34,959
Speaker 8: Comes to sm one event can eliminate a business out

718
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 8: and I usually I think make an example right now.

719
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 8: You know, in this particular case, you find that there's

720
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 8: a business that has taken some orders and invoiced their

721
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 8: customers and the bottom items somewhere in the mike, and

722
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 8: the item was supposed to be shipped or delivered this week,

723
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 8: and all of a sudden it is stuck and you

724
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 8: can just imagine in terms of that entrepreneur right now

725
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 8: how they are feeling, and especially that the customers will

726
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 8: be expecting their products. And you find that as well.

727
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 8: On the other side, especially with SMEs, they're not able

728
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 8: to really have couple or to absorb some of the

729
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 8: overheads and especially one important element, one line item, especially

730
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 8: when you imput is an insurance and the moment if

731
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 8: you didn't actually take that box, you'll find yourself that

732
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 8: within a month you'll be out of business. So that

733
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,359
Speaker 8: is basically the classic business case when it comes to

734
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 8: t SM is that events like this can become catastrophic

735
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 8: and and and therefore, but there are some learning cabs

736
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 8: as well as that. I think the SMBs should be

737
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 8: learning from this, Stiven and especially when it comes to

738
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 8: day specification of your suppliers.

739
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna just hold on a sex.

740
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 1: So I mean the problem is is sorry Cleat, that

741
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 1: no one sort of saw this coming. I mean, you know,

742
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 1: if you're if you're running a small business, you would

743
00:41:57,680 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 1: have maybe known the top of your head ify come.

744
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 1: But this is another example of how you have to

745
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 1: prepare for the unexpected. Is my greater point well, it's.

746
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,760
Speaker 8: Portant, and I think the lesson and again the lesson

747
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 8: from here is that risk management becomes one of those

748
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 8: items we usually anticipate of things that it applies only

749
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 8: to big businesses and because they've got the budget for that.

750
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,879
Speaker 8: But I think if you are running a business as

751
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 8: well as an as A and E A means part

752
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 8: and passle of your strategy when you start the year

753
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 8: to say, look, how do we apply some of the

754
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 8: risk management principles and what can we do to save

755
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 8: ourselves be all of these shocks. And I think right now,

756
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 8: especially with this decades, we are littally a lot of

757
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 8: saying that we were having more and more of these

758
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 8: events that are becoming you know, heavy shocks for us.

759
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 8: I mean, we had convent just four or five years

760
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 8: ago and we are having this now right now, And

761
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 8: therefore we should not really assume that all of these

762
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 8: things are only impacting good businesses. But is at the

763
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 8: end of the day, especially a country like South Africa

764
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 8: or a continent like Africa that is becoming more and

765
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 8: more important dependence. So therefore as important that you also

766
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 8: surround yourself with good advisors and good accountants. Basically that

767
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 8: can help you to advise you around that.

768
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 1: This is a really important point you're going to make.

769
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 1: And I really interrupted you about supplies and diversifying your supplies.

770
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: How do you do that?

771
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 5: Yeah?

772
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:35,439
Speaker 8: Look, and again I think it's also an opportunity here

773
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 8: for I see is to say, look, we've seen, you know,

774
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 8: our manufacturing base in South Africa really going down over

775
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 8: the years, and I think events like this they're really

776
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 8: remind us that let us also invest heavily, you know, locally,

777
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 8: so that at least years you can have your main

778
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 8: suppliers that we've been doing business with for like a

779
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 8: year or two or three years down the line. However,

780
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 8: you must have I think a secondarylant of suppliers that

781
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 8: should in that particular reaching for instance, be affected. Think

782
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 8: about how many SMBs that are doing business, especially in

783
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,399
Speaker 8: Asia with the likes of China. What happens if there's

784
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 8: an event like that, what's going to happen to those businesses?

785
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 8: So it's important that I think as an SME that

786
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 8: you don't really become heavily, heavily you know, focusing in

787
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 8: one region when it comes to your suppliers. But most

788
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 8: importantly as well, some of the lessons that we're picking

789
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 8: up the especially of the sms that have two that

790
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 8: are going to be impacted. You know, I think collaborate

791
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 8: as well with with other businesses, you know, with some

792
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 8: of your convertitors as well. Pick up a call and

793
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 8: discuss in terms of how you guys can absorb some

794
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 8: of the rising fixed costs that are going to be

795
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 8: coming through, especially businesses like retail. You know, I'm checking

796
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 8: some declement over saying, all of a sudden, we can

797
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 8: be sitting with all of these goods, where are we

798
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 8: going to do with that? So retail, tourism factor, you know, logistics,

799
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,759
Speaker 8: these are some of the things the that are going

800
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:02,240
Speaker 8: to feel the immediate impact.

801
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 1: I mean when when when things get tougher So so

802
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 1: for a long time we've been talking about, you know,

803
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:11,280
Speaker 1: lower inflation, lower interest rates, all of that stuff. Suddenly

804
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 1: it could all reverse, mainly because of higher fuel prices

805
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:17,240
Speaker 1: and very hard to get around higher fuel prices for anyone,

806
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 1: never mind a smaller business. Can you prepare better kind

807
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: of next time around? There'll be a lot of lessons

808
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:27,759
Speaker 1: from this time. The problem is, I mean, no matter

809
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,240
Speaker 1: what you do, fuel prices are going to whack.

810
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 8: You well and and and and again. Manufacturing companies will

811
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 8: tell you that the impact, especially if you has on

812
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 8: their on their income statement. But I think what is

813
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 8: important here. I mean it says, go back to drawing board, right.

814
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 8: Cash flow becomes kink in, you know, in periods like

815
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:56,359
Speaker 8: this and and and and you have to really try

816
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 8: to say, okay, find how do we collect more than

817
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 8: you know to really you know, run away for some

818
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 8: of the costs. And I mean it's it's ideas like

819
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 8: where you've shotten some of your payment cycles. You know,

820
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 8: if you're getting paid in thirty days, offer some incentives

821
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 8: to say, if you pay us with them like a

822
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 8: week or two, will give you a particular discount two

823
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 8: percent or three percent discount because you can have all

824
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,439
Speaker 8: of these sales. But if there's no cash that is coming,

825
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,879
Speaker 8: you find yourself, you know, in a situation where you're

826
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,360
Speaker 8: not able to cover your day to day operating expenses.

827
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 8: But I think most importantly, you know, don't ride this

828
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 8: wave alone. Bring your advisors close up, you know, bounce

829
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 8: ideas and to find that you know what too is

830
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 8: better than money.

831
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:47,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean it's also this is the moment.

832
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 1: I mean, I hate to be this person. But if

833
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: you survive this, you might certainly find that you have

834
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: a bigger patch of the market to yourself.

835
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 8: Look, the impact the stiment is quite there, because I mean,

836
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 8: if if you think about it, I mean, we had

837
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 8: about a class thousand flives that are grounded. It's one

838
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:11,879
Speaker 8: of the biggest that we've had other than COVID and

839
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:15,359
Speaker 8: the ninety eleven, you know, and most people that are

840
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 8: and retailer as well, they're going to fill the page,

841
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 8: especially those ones who are important.

842
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 5: Around the nutleast.

843
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 8: But also it's an opportunity for some of the businesses

844
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 8: or some of the low coal suppliers as well to

845
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 8: real rise. And well, look, and if you were importing

846
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 8: this particular product, we are around the corner. You can

847
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 8: start now to consider and use us. And that's what

848
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 8: we've been saying, you know, and very much I'm very

849
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 8: much worried myself. As I said, we're becoming more and

850
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,439
Speaker 8: more important depending and it may curse because of the costs, right,

851
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 8: but I mean, if you are a local manufacturer, you know,

852
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 8: and you've got a very good product and the cost competitive,

853
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 8: I think it is your time that you take this

854
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 8: as an opportunity to reach out to some of you

855
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 8: know your clients that you know they import quite a lot.

856
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 1: Thanks so much, ready to appreciate that. The managing director,

857
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:08,919
Speaker 1: advantage advisory, so much to look at in these problems.

858
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 1: The money show Investment School twenty five minutes now to

859
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 1: seven the time, well rarely, I mean in moments like this,

860
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 1: what else can you talk about on Investment School? And

861
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 1: we've seen such volatility over the last few days, the

862
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 1: JAC losing huge value, regaining half of it, then kind

863
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 1: of losing it again. In the US indice swinging back

864
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 1: and forth. I mean, there's probably a more technical way

865
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: to say that, but let's just sink with swinging back

866
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 1: and forth. I mean South Korea, the index yesterday dropped

867
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 1: twelve percent, more than at any other day in its history.

868
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 1: I mean, how do you, I suppose, manage your emotions,

869
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 1: manage the turmoil, just manage all of it. Tonight we're

870
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,360
Speaker 1: joined by Chantel Marks out of Equity Research at F

871
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:52,919
Speaker 1: and B Wealth and Investments and not just the chief

872
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 1: investment officer at MARSI Asset Management. And thanks both to

873
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 1: both of you so much for coming in. I mean, Chantel,

874
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 1: if I can start with you, I mean the first

875
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 1: moment when I see an index falling like that. Frankly,

876
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 1: let me just be honest. Here, is I fear for

877
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 1: my retirement? And isn't that the normal human emotion that

878
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: we have to overcome? Right, John tell I, I'm not

879
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,280
Speaker 1: sure if you're there, I think we're going to just battle,

880
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 1: all right, Sander. I mean that that feeling of fear

881
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:26,880
Speaker 1: is the emotion right, natural and grievingly everyone, that is

882
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 1: the natural feeling. And you know, as you say, immediately

883
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 1: you're thinking, you know my sunset the retirement, and you

884
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:36,399
Speaker 1: see this big drop, and you know half of your

885
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 1: dreams are getting wiped out. I suppose this is where

886
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: the element of managing your your emotions, managing the fear

887
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 1: factor involved in all of this comes in. Of course,

888
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 1: for people who do this all the time, I'm going

889
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 1: to say it's easier, but it's not. So I can

890
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:55,359
Speaker 1: only imagine for people who don't look at this and

891
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 1: do this on a daily basis.

892
00:49:57,120 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 9: But I think what I can say is it's really

893
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 9: the time to focus on what it is that you're

894
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:04,720
Speaker 9: trying to do. So you're investing for the long term,

895
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 9: you've got a strategy, you've got a plan. Of course,

896
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 9: Equity markets are at times a big part of long

897
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:14,800
Speaker 9: term investment and long term savings by their very nature

898
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 9: and actually part of the you know, there's the adage

899
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:21,240
Speaker 9: you know, risk return. Of course this is now heightened

900
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 9: risk and yeah, and you know we've seen instances in

901
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:27,400
Speaker 9: history where there's been big drops and then you know,

902
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:30,720
Speaker 9: we see recoveries over the next couple of years. So yes,

903
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 9: this is the time to really sort of knuckle down,

904
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,799
Speaker 9: remember why you're doing what you're doing, and focus on

905
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 9: on on sort of the long term thinking around what

906
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 9: it is that you're trying to achieve.

907
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 1: Chantel marks you with us now, I mean, can you

908
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:50,879
Speaker 1: almost prepare your emotions for a moment like this? Can

909
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 1: you almost think to yourself when you go into investing,

910
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 1: there will be days when this happens.

911
00:50:56,760 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 11: I think it comes with many years in the market

912
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 11: where you see days like these taking place and you

913
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 11: actually start seeing the opportunities.

914
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 6: There's always, uh, there's always a little bit of panic.

915
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:10,920
Speaker 6: I think it's just human.

916
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,840
Speaker 11: But you start seeing the opportunities amid the chaos, and

917
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 11: you're able to maintain your composure better.

918
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 6: But I think the first step.

919
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 11: Is actually recognizing that having these emotions like panic, like

920
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 11: fear is very very normal, and to to coach yourself

921
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:33,520
Speaker 11: through that, to say, okay, I'm feeling this.

922
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 6: This is a natural human emotion.

923
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 11: But that but that markets don't really, they don't work

924
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 11: according to emotion. You'll get short term volatility that is

925
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 11: based on other investors fear and greediness. But ultimately markets

926
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:52,720
Speaker 11: revert to the fundamentals. They're revert to long term growth.

927
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 11: They're avert to strategy and thematic changes and technological changes.

928
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 11: They don't long good term reflect human emotions. And once

929
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 11: you get that mindset right, I think it's easier to

930
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 11: start spotting the opportunities instead of doing something rash like

931
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:12,840
Speaker 11: panic selling.

932
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 1: And I mean under there's there's also and this is

933
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 1: you know, the bigger, sometimes the more difficult questions, that

934
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 1: there are actually opportunities in these moments. And I'm not

935
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 1: just saying to you know, buy oil or look at

936
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,879
Speaker 1: the people who bought tung gala today, but there are

937
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 1: things that you can do that will actually maybe make

938
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:31,880
Speaker 1: you some money.

939
00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:36,400
Speaker 9: Absolutely, I think there's there's all these edges, you know,

940
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 9: buy when there's blood on the street and and so on.

941
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 6: I think what it goes back to or back. It

942
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 6: really relates to.

943
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:47,879
Speaker 9: Understanding PEPs that assets even in the off the mouth

944
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 9: of all of this, you know, we still need to eat,

945
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 9: we need to call and communicate, we need to get

946
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 9: to work, and all these things. So there are some

947
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 9: there are there remain basic sort of fundamental economic principles

948
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 9: that then drive what you'd say are the value of

949
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 9: assets underlying ultimately, So it's not that you know, all

950
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:12,759
Speaker 9: of a sudden the banks shut down and close and

951
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 9: so there's normal banks. As I said, shop write will

952
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 9: probably still be around, will still need to go in

953
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 9: and eat. So the opportunities then arise from understanding that

954
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 9: these moments do sometimes present opportunities to buy good assets

955
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 9: with good fundamentals at actually much more attractive prices than

956
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:31,719
Speaker 9: what you would have brought them for let's say a

957
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 9: week or two ago.

958
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: I mean, Chantel, you know sort of buying the dep

959
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 1: and I mean you saw buying the you know almost

960
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 1: immediately that this started, you know, things plunged and then

961
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,319
Speaker 1: people bought the dep. But if people are buying the deep,

962
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:44,399
Speaker 1: I mean, are we going to get to a point

963
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 1: where people buy the dip so quickly that actually there's

964
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 1: no dip.

965
00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 11: We are starting to see that the deep becoming a

966
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 11: much sharper dep and.

967
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:59,840
Speaker 6: Not no longer kind of a shallow, drawn down up.

968
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:04,359
Speaker 11: So I think you have to be quite quick, and

969
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 11: you have you'll probably have to become quicker over time.

970
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:09,560
Speaker 11: And that is just because there are things like our

971
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 11: algorithmic kind of trading that is taking place in the background,

972
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 11: machine trading taking place in the background, So.

973
00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 6: It makes it a little bit more difficult for the.

974
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:22,759
Speaker 11: Man on the street to actually take these opportunities when

975
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:26,719
Speaker 11: they arise and take them quick enough. I think the

976
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 11: best thing to do is not to try and be first,

977
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 11: but to see where that disconnect really has taken place

978
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:36,360
Speaker 11: between But perhaps a company has come under pressure and

979
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 11: it hasn't exactly recovered. Maybe you miss it on one,

980
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 11: but there'll be opportunities like that where you don't see

981
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 11: that immediate recovery. And then it's also important to just

982
00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:50,360
Speaker 11: stick to your strategy. I mean, if your strategy is

983
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 11: to set aside a certain amount of money per month,

984
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 11: naturally you will be you will you will invest through

985
00:54:56,600 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 11: periods where you have opportunities to invest in the dip

986
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:01,879
Speaker 11: without even knowing about.

987
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 6: It, because your debit order has already gone off.

988
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 11: Another important strategy is just to keep that diversified portfolio

989
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 11: and stick to your portfolio management rules. So look at

990
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:16,759
Speaker 11: whether or not some companies have run very hard. In

991
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 11: this case, there was also actually opportunities to sell because

992
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 11: you would have seen some of these oil companies and

993
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 11: the energy companies rarely exceptionally hard on the back of

994
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 11: what happened in the Middle East, and maybe they've run

995
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 11: ahead of their fundamental values and the.

996
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:35,760
Speaker 6: Fundamentals in the oil market.

997
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 11: So sticking to your portfolio management principles and sticking to

998
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,440
Speaker 11: your strategy is probably the best option, and not trying

999
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 11: to time it perfectly because it's almost impossible to do that.

1000
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1001
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 1: No, that's so interesting. I mean it's sort of I

1002
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,759
Speaker 1: suppose investings, like many other things, you know, perfections the

1003
00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:56,560
Speaker 1: enemy of good sound. There must be things that you

1004
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 1: need to remember, and there must be things you need

1005
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:01,080
Speaker 1: to avoid in these moments.

1006
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:05,879
Speaker 9: Absolutely, so I think remembering maybe just back to watch

1007
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:09,399
Speaker 9: Intel said, you know you'd invest for a purpose. Let's say,

1008
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 9: so I'm setting this money aside for retirement, for a holiday,

1009
00:56:14,920 --> 00:56:19,279
Speaker 9: for children's education. So investment strategy, even if we go

1010
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 9: back to right at the beginning, the purpose for actually

1011
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:26,560
Speaker 9: putting the money aside becomes an important anchor that one

1012
00:56:26,600 --> 00:56:30,880
Speaker 9: needs to lean on and remember in terms of, you know,

1013
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 9: in these moments and sort of trying to make sure

1014
00:56:33,440 --> 00:56:37,440
Speaker 9: you stick to those principles. I think again, the fear factor,

1015
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 9: the sort of the design or the potential to panic

1016
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 9: in these moments is really where one needs to manage

1017
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 9: themselves focus on what it is that you're trying to

1018
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:51,800
Speaker 9: do in terms of the investment strategy. Much easier said

1019
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 9: than done. So it is I know what I'm saying.

1020
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 9: For people who are watching their statements or watching the

1021
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 9: markets moving at the moment, it's like, what are you

1022
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 9: talking about? But I think that's really when we talk

1023
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,400
Speaker 9: about equity market, those are the kind of things that

1024
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 9: one needs to be aware of ahead of time in

1025
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:11,960
Speaker 9: terms of what it is that you're getting into and

1026
00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:16,360
Speaker 9: the characteristics of the equity market and how they can perform.

1027
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 1: I mean, it's sort of interesting. I mean, Chantelle, I'm

1028
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 1: sure there are kind of things you need to remember

1029
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 1: in your head while you do this, and I mean

1030
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 1: part of it is is just why you invested in

1031
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: the first place. You know, you've got to have a

1032
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,600
Speaker 1: sense of what the actual point of all of this is.

1033
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:33,960
Speaker 1: And the point of this isn't actually to protect all

1034
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 1: your money on Monday and double it on Tuesday. Your

1035
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:38,920
Speaker 1: aim is actually something very different.

1036
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:43,480
Speaker 11: Yes, So I think when we're looking at short term training,

1037
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 11: perhaps your aim is more immediate. But when you are

1038
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:49,920
Speaker 11: a long term investor and you're investing for retirement or

1039
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:52,280
Speaker 11: for a specific goal, and you have five to ten.

1040
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 6: Years on your side.

1041
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 11: It's I think, like just looking at what markets have

1042
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:02,480
Speaker 11: done in the past during these shocks or these bouts

1043
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 11: of volatility. Think about Liberation Day, think about Russia Ukraine,

1044
00:58:07,640 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 11: think about COVID nineteen.

1045
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 6: You will have.

1046
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:14,440
Speaker 11: A lot of time and you won't even need that

1047
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 11: much time for the market to cover fully and then

1048
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 11: some and kind of repeating that yourself will also help

1049
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 11: you stay calm during periods of volatility. It's very natural

1050
00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 11: for markets to react violently to news like this, but

1051
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:33,320
Speaker 11: it's also very natural for markets to eventually settle down

1052
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 11: and revert to behaving according to the fundamentals.

1053
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 6: As I said earlier, So I.

1054
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 11: Think once you understand that the point is not to

1055
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 11: make money tomorrow or for next week, it calms your

1056
00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 11: mind to a certain extent a Sunday.

1057
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 1: We're talking specifically about managing emotion, but a lot of

1058
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 1: trading now is almost automatic. It's algorithmic. In other words,

1059
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 1: it's not humans making the decisions. It's give it a name,

1060
00:59:03,280 --> 00:59:07,120
Speaker 1: quant algorithms, AI machines. It's a machine, right, It's a

1061
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 1: machine that's been programmed. Now, when that happens, that should

1062
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:16,400
Speaker 1: automatically take the emotion out, shouldn't it It?

1063
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:16,920
Speaker 6: It should?

1064
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 9: Theoretically, I suppose with these machines there are let's use

1065
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:28,040
Speaker 9: the term algorithms which have been inputed in there, so

1066
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 9: simplifying it, maybe that algorithm comes from someone. Yeah, there

1067
00:59:32,720 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 9: are biases at times that are embedded in these algorithms.

1068
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:39,280
Speaker 9: So if you think about an algorithm that's going to say, well,

1069
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 9: shares fall in ten percent, I need to sell now,

1070
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 9: that immediately is a bias, because who's to say that

1071
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:48,960
Speaker 9: it's in the ten and a half percent that it

1072
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 9: starts to go up again. So those those are the

1073
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,440
Speaker 9: kind of things that you know, yes they are there,

1074
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:57,800
Speaker 9: it's the machine reacting. But there is built in I'm

1075
00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 9: going to say intelligence if you will, or direction instruction

1076
01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:04,160
Speaker 9: that's built into it. I think another thing. Maybe a

1077
01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 9: related topic is that markets these days are influenced by

1078
01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 9: newer factors. So you've got the Chinese retail investors who

1079
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 9: can't invest in property now the US, let's say, buying

1080
01:00:19,160 --> 01:00:21,600
Speaker 9: US bonds and so on not so sure about that

1081
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 9: because of what's happening with the US or the Daral

1082
01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 9: and so on. And so we've seen those investors, alongside

1083
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:29,600
Speaker 9: let's say central banks and so on, also buying things

1084
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:32,920
Speaker 9: like gold. So you've seen also quite interestingly, you know,

1085
01:00:33,080 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 9: gold not reacting perps as would be choreographed, i e. Uncertainty,

1086
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:43,280
Speaker 9: geo politics. There's the potential of oil rising causing sort

1087
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:47,080
Speaker 9: of an inflationary impact. So I think that's also maybe

1088
01:00:47,120 --> 01:00:49,959
Speaker 9: along the same lines and impact in the market, which

1089
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 9: is resulting in very strange behaviors movements in the short term.

1090
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:57,560
Speaker 9: But again it maybe does talk to some of these

1091
01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 9: biases that are embedded in these reactions. And I think

1092
01:01:01,720 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 9: back to you, know, what we've been saying is long

1093
01:01:04,080 --> 01:01:07,320
Speaker 9: term strategy seeking to the strategy in terms of what

1094
01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 9: you're trying to achieve, and not being influenced in the

1095
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 9: short term.

1096
01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:14,360
Speaker 1: Chantana, I'm going to put this question to you and

1097
01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 1: to a Sunday, because I think it may be a

1098
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 1: big question if we have more sort of aisle automatic

1099
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:26,240
Speaker 1: or computerized trading and you have a non emotional trader,

1100
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: does that change markets because the issue of sentiment starts

1101
01:01:31,160 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 1: to disappear.

1102
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean the reality is you'll have a non

1103
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:40,400
Speaker 11: emotional trader, but you'll have an emotional client at.

1104
01:01:40,240 --> 01:01:42,120
Speaker 6: The end of that portfolio that's free.

1105
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 11: So that is something that you also need to keep

1106
01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 11: in mind. Your algo might be trading efficiently, but your

1107
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 11: human who owns that money and owns that portfolio may

1108
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 11: not like the outcome.

1109
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:01,840
Speaker 6: What you could also so fine is that.

1110
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:06,720
Speaker 11: The machines start acting in almost a very similar way.

1111
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 11: So you build efficiency in your markets, but through building

1112
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 11: that efficiency, it actually becomes inefficient again because the machines

1113
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 11: are all doing the exact same thing or acting similarly.

1114
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 11: To certain scenarios, you could get a massive disconnect between

1115
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 11: what is actually driving a company's profitability and what its

1116
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:30,439
Speaker 11: share price should be. So yeah, I mean, I think

1117
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 11: it can change it, but it could actually not change

1118
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 11: it in the way that you think it might change it.

1119
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: That's such an interesting point because asunder instead of you know,

1120
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 1: a sunder versus Chantel. I mean, in the nicest possible way,

1121
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 1: it really becomes it really becomes program versus program, and

1122
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:49,920
Speaker 1: they will do the same thing. I mean, humans copy

1123
01:02:49,920 --> 01:02:53,040
Speaker 1: each other now, but programs are absolutely the same thing.

1124
01:02:53,200 --> 01:02:56,440
Speaker 9: Yeah, and I think it almost becomes a self fulfilling

1125
01:02:56,480 --> 01:03:00,240
Speaker 9: prophecy in a sense where you're trying to avoid and

1126
01:03:00,400 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 9: act in a certain way programmatically. But if one machine

1127
01:03:04,440 --> 01:03:07,960
Speaker 9: is doing that and another one sees their outcome of

1128
01:03:07,960 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 9: what the first machine is doing, so to Chantelle's point,

1129
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:13,000
Speaker 9: then the other one reacts to that, then the efficiency

1130
01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 9: is actually lost because the reaction is not to the

1131
01:03:16,120 --> 01:03:20,439
Speaker 9: original information, but to almost the artificial outcome of what's

1132
01:03:20,440 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 9: happened in the first instance. So again, I think the

1133
01:03:24,080 --> 01:03:27,160
Speaker 9: impact of all these things, the extent of the moves

1134
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 9: and what they mean, becomes so much more vague and

1135
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 9: opaque because it's not then linked to let's say fundamentals,

1136
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:37,040
Speaker 9: people looking at the company and saying, well, this company

1137
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:38,520
Speaker 9: is now ten percent less.

1138
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 6: Valuable than it was a moment ago.

1139
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:45,920
Speaker 9: But it's actually reactions to information inefficiencies creeping in. And

1140
01:03:45,960 --> 01:03:48,680
Speaker 9: again I think it does to your point to your

1141
01:03:48,800 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 9: original question, it does introduce changes and different patterns in

1142
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:56,480
Speaker 9: terms of how markets trade and how or relative to

1143
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:57,600
Speaker 9: what we've seen in the past.

1144
01:03:57,600 --> 01:04:01,000
Speaker 1: Perhaps we're speaking to Asunder Notch, chief investment officer at

1145
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:03,880
Speaker 1: Marsiaset Management, and chantel Mark set of equity research at

1146
01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:07,280
Speaker 1: iffn BE Wealth and Investments in Investments School, how to

1147
01:04:07,320 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 1: manage your emotions on the markets during these times? Nine

1148
01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:11,400
Speaker 1: minutes state.

1149
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 6: The Money Show Investment School.

1150
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 1: Speaking to chantel Mark set of equity research at if

1151
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:19,840
Speaker 1: and B Wealth and Investments and A Sunda not A,

1152
01:04:19,920 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 1: chief investment officer at Marsiacid Management. How to stay grounded

1153
01:04:23,120 --> 01:04:25,520
Speaker 1: during these times? How to manage your emotions? I suppose

1154
01:04:25,640 --> 01:04:27,480
Speaker 1: just how to keep your shirt might be the old

1155
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:31,120
Speaker 1: versioned way of saying it. You know, when this happens, Chantelle,

1156
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:33,280
Speaker 1: you've made the point, and this point has been made

1157
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:38,840
Speaker 1: about how markets tend to calm down. And I think

1158
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 1: you might have been a part of the conversation which

1159
01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:43,280
Speaker 1: pointed to the Great Depression, well like the next day

1160
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 1: that doubt the next time the Dow Jones got to

1161
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:47,920
Speaker 1: where it was that, you know, before the start of

1162
01:04:47,960 --> 01:04:50,160
Speaker 1: the Great Depression was I think in the nineteen fifties.

1163
01:04:50,560 --> 01:04:55,439
Speaker 1: So I mean, obviously you are correct. Markets do calm down?

1164
01:04:56,480 --> 01:04:57,520
Speaker 6: Do they always sort of?

1165
01:04:57,840 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 1: I mean, do they always have a pattern like the

1166
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 1: we're seeing now where you actually can't predict which way

1167
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 1: the volatility will go.

1168
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:11,080
Speaker 11: It's become worse in terms of predicting where the market

1169
01:05:11,160 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 11: is going to go, particularly when we're looking at shorter

1170
01:05:13,760 --> 01:05:16,120
Speaker 11: term movements, and a lot of that has to do

1171
01:05:16,680 --> 01:05:21,440
Speaker 11: with how interconnected the world has become, and also how

1172
01:05:21,720 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 11: technology is also playing a role in how information is disseminated.

1173
01:05:27,200 --> 01:05:29,680
Speaker 11: So I do think that it is becoming a little

1174
01:05:29,680 --> 01:05:33,400
Speaker 11: bit more difficult, and the volatility is also quite heightened

1175
01:05:34,120 --> 01:05:39,360
Speaker 11: for quite some time after the initial kind of shock event.

1176
01:05:40,640 --> 01:05:43,160
Speaker 11: What I would say, though, is that the recovery time

1177
01:05:43,840 --> 01:05:45,640
Speaker 11: has become a lot shorter as well.

1178
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:47,520
Speaker 6: So you've seen these big reactions.

1179
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 11: Volatility is heightened, is heightened for a few days, but

1180
01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:53,120
Speaker 11: when you're looking at the recovery of the market, it

1181
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:57,400
Speaker 11: happens a lot quicker than it did in the past.

1182
01:05:57,520 --> 01:06:01,320
Speaker 11: And that's just because that again, that information gets disseminated

1183
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:06,720
Speaker 11: pretty quickly. If you cast your mind back to the

1184
01:06:06,720 --> 01:06:11,640
Speaker 11: Great Depression, you were also in the midst of well

1185
01:06:11,880 --> 01:06:15,000
Speaker 11: what followed was also a global war, so there were

1186
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:17,360
Speaker 11: a few shark events that took place, But you were

1187
01:06:17,360 --> 01:06:21,720
Speaker 11: also living in a world where countries and markets were very,

1188
01:06:21,840 --> 01:06:25,240
Speaker 11: very isolated, so it would have taken a very long

1189
01:06:25,280 --> 01:06:26,040
Speaker 11: time to recover.

1190
01:06:26,520 --> 01:06:29,960
Speaker 6: Capital's flowing freely. Now no one's isolated anymore.

1191
01:06:30,000 --> 01:06:33,640
Speaker 11: Everyone knows what's happening, so it's easier to adjust.

1192
01:06:34,560 --> 01:06:36,480
Speaker 1: So, Asanda, I'm going to put this point to you,

1193
01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:38,720
Speaker 1: just to be difficult, because you know, it's what I'm

1194
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:43,240
Speaker 1: paid for. I would argue that the situation in Iran

1195
01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:46,600
Speaker 1: and the attacks around it are not what's changed. What's

1196
01:06:46,680 --> 01:06:50,280
Speaker 1: changed to the Trump administration and the Trump administration will

1197
01:06:50,280 --> 01:06:54,400
Speaker 1: have long term consequences. So if you look at this

1198
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:57,200
Speaker 1: would be the argument, not necessarily my view, but the argument.

1199
01:06:57,720 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 1: Iraq was supposed to be a quick thing. It up

1200
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:03,880
Speaker 1: as a disaster. Same for Libya, by the way, and

1201
01:07:03,960 --> 01:07:07,000
Speaker 1: a disaster for the people living there. Iran could easily

1202
01:07:07,040 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 1: go the same way. The Trump administration still has some

1203
01:07:09,680 --> 01:07:13,040
Speaker 1: time to run. The sort of make America Great movement

1204
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:16,280
Speaker 1: in the States is not done yet, and doesn't that

1205
01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:19,600
Speaker 1: mean that that's actually what's changed, and therefore markets are

1206
01:07:19,640 --> 01:07:21,600
Speaker 1: going to be like this, not just because of this,

1207
01:07:21,800 --> 01:07:24,520
Speaker 1: not just because of Venezuela. But because of Trump for

1208
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:27,200
Speaker 1: a long time. This is not a once of event,

1209
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:29,640
Speaker 1: is my point. The world has literally changed.

1210
01:07:30,560 --> 01:07:35,720
Speaker 9: That's probably the with the with the developments in Iran,

1211
01:07:35,960 --> 01:07:38,080
Speaker 9: one of the biggest questions is how long do we

1212
01:07:38,120 --> 01:07:40,480
Speaker 9: think this is going to take? And so I think

1213
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:45,960
Speaker 9: your question is quite fundamental. I suppose if you look

1214
01:07:45,960 --> 01:07:49,000
Speaker 9: at geopolitics, you know what was coming down along along

1215
01:07:49,040 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 9: the way is the shift in terms of East West

1216
01:07:53,480 --> 01:07:58,040
Speaker 9: China US. Yeah, so I suppose you could say the

1217
01:07:58,480 --> 01:08:03,800
Speaker 9: what we're see now is a heightened development of that long,

1218
01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 9: long developing sort of trend. Perhaps the Trump administration is

1219
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:14,240
Speaker 9: accelerating that. The the sort of geopolitical I'm going to say,

1220
01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:16,919
Speaker 9: almost like a fight for for for position for dominance.

1221
01:08:18,040 --> 01:08:22,360
Speaker 9: And having said that, though, another view around it is,

1222
01:08:23,600 --> 01:08:25,880
Speaker 9: you know, there's the there was the Greenland sort of

1223
01:08:25,880 --> 01:08:30,960
Speaker 9: situation with with the Trump and Canada Mexico. So there's

1224
01:08:30,960 --> 01:08:32,840
Speaker 9: there's the other school of thought that says, look, only

1225
01:08:32,880 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 9: all the Trump administration is after is the dominance of

1226
01:08:35,560 --> 01:08:38,640
Speaker 9: the of their hemisphere as they call it, and and

1227
01:08:38,680 --> 01:08:41,800
Speaker 9: so that then gives the Chinese an angle in terms

1228
01:08:41,800 --> 01:08:44,280
Speaker 9: of dominance in their hemisphere. And so we lived in

1229
01:08:44,320 --> 01:08:46,800
Speaker 9: that we live in that fractured world. Only problem is,

1230
01:08:46,840 --> 01:08:49,000
Speaker 9: you know, Iran is a long way from that that

1231
01:08:49,080 --> 01:08:52,360
Speaker 9: other hemisphere. So so there's also then the sort of

1232
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 9: discussion around oil and where China has been sourcing its

1233
01:08:57,160 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 9: oil and the sort of discounted oil it's been getting

1234
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:03,680
Speaker 9: and pleased like Venezuela Ryan. So yes, I think the

1235
01:09:04,920 --> 01:09:08,479
Speaker 9: arrival of the administration does accelerate a lot of these

1236
01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:12,880
Speaker 9: I think geopolitical developments that have been simmering. I think

1237
01:09:13,200 --> 01:09:16,719
Speaker 9: and perhaps that as you say, what we can expect

1238
01:09:17,479 --> 01:09:19,599
Speaker 9: in the next couple of years going forward.

1239
01:09:20,560 --> 01:09:23,679
Speaker 1: Well, so much to think about, so much to stay

1240
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:27,080
Speaker 1: calm about. As Under not thank you. The chief investment

1241
01:09:27,120 --> 01:09:30,759
Speaker 1: officer at Marsi Asset Management, Chantel marks that have equity

1242
01:09:30,800 --> 01:09:33,600
Speaker 1: researched it and be wealth and investments ready to appreciate

1243
01:09:33,640 --> 01:09:36,439
Speaker 1: the time on this And as always in life, you know,

1244
01:09:36,520 --> 01:09:38,200
Speaker 1: you've got to sort of listen to your head, not

1245
01:09:38,280 --> 01:09:40,040
Speaker 1: your heart when you've got to make a big decision,

1246
01:09:40,040 --> 01:09:43,439
Speaker 1: particularly one about money, count to ten and all of

1247
01:09:43,479 --> 01:09:47,040
Speaker 1: those things. But in the end, as both Asunder and

1248
01:09:47,360 --> 01:09:49,400
Speaker 1: Chantell made the point, you have to think about why

1249
01:09:49,479 --> 01:09:50,960
Speaker 1: you're doing this. In the first place,