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Speaker 1: And now The Money Show with Stephen credits on seven

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Speaker 1: oh two.

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Speaker 2: Let's walk at all. The Money Show with Stephen Curtis

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Speaker 2: is brought to you by ABS, the corporate and investment

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Speaker 2: banking balancing, balancing economic growth with ecosystems. That's how they're

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Speaker 2: invested in your story. Good evening to you. I'm Stephen Curtis.

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Speaker 2: Eight minutes after six. Well one of those days where

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Speaker 2: there's just once again the kind of volatility on markets.

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Speaker 2: Metal prices were much softer. That had been an impact

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Speaker 2: on the JAC and quite a lot of corporate news

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Speaker 2: coming through as well, a bit a bit of a

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Speaker 2: bad update from SAS. I don't think it had been

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Speaker 2: well signed posted. Oil prices have been lower, chemical prices

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Speaker 2: have been softer, Arsenal metal as well. Just explaining how

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Speaker 2: much money they're still losing, still over three and a

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Speaker 2: half billion Rand, and that's despite cutting losses by sixty percent,

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Speaker 2: and that of course is only because of the closure

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Speaker 2: of the long steel business. I was reminded of the

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Speaker 2: CEO of the conversation we had with the CEO of

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Speaker 2: the Industry Development Corporation just two weeks ago, and I

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Speaker 2: asked specifically how those discussions going. Are we expecting some

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Speaker 2: kind of result of the conversations around arsenal Mittle And

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Speaker 2: she said yes, and we haven't heard much since then.

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Speaker 2: I realized they're all very confidential and we won't hear

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Speaker 2: anything until they're already that there'll be plenty of workers,

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Speaker 2: particularly in parts of Newcastle, that will be really just

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Speaker 2: waiting for some kind of outcome. The President was at

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Speaker 2: SARS today and he was talking about the size of

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Speaker 2: the ilicit economy. I don't think we'll ever know how

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Speaker 2: big it is. I will say though, that just on

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Speaker 2: your way home today, it's probably all around you. You know,

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Speaker 2: people sitting individual cigarettes, alcohol here, and something that's been

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Speaker 2: sort of undervalued there, all of that kind of thing.

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Speaker 2: And SARS has got to be careful about who it

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Speaker 2: goes for. I mean, you don't want to crush the

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Speaker 2: economy in the process. But we'll talk a little bit

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Speaker 2: about that in a moment. Still waiting as well to

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Speaker 2: see who might take over from Edward Kissfetter, a SARS

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Speaker 2: commissioner at this stage. As I talked to you, now,

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Speaker 2: I might have missed it, but I have not heard

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Speaker 2: of any kind of public process, and there was last

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Speaker 2: time there was a series of interviews, but we haven't

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Speaker 2: had any kind of news of what will happen around

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Speaker 2: a SARS commissioner this time. As I understand the law,

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Speaker 2: I think it's still just up to the President to

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Speaker 2: appoint someone a bit like the head of the NPA.

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Speaker 2: We'll speak to just Ran Baiju, the partner in the

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Speaker 2: head of Strategic Engagement and Compliance at Tax Consulting, about

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Speaker 2: SARS and the ilicit economy. In a moment, I was

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Speaker 2: slightly surprised to see, despite all of the good news

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Speaker 2: around the economy, that dead levels still seem to be rising.

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Speaker 2: And this has been a perennial problem for so long.

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Speaker 2: You look at the needs in our society. Someone who's

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Speaker 2: earning money probably looking after so many people, and so

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Speaker 2: many sort of course for help from members of the family,

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Speaker 2: and all of that just the nature of our society,

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Speaker 2: and so debt goes up. We'll speak to the executive

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Speaker 2: head of Debt Busters, Bene Saga in about ten minutes

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Speaker 2: after the six thirty news. With pulling the psycho technology,

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Speaker 2: they've been on a bit of a buying spree. Link

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Speaker 2: In Marley, their CEO. You'll talk about the interim results

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Speaker 2: the bank zero deal. I noticed also there in the

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Speaker 2: prepaid phone course space, and we saw Vodicon yesterday saying

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Speaker 2: they're selling they're making far less money from that. Are

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Speaker 2: they having the same issue at Lasaka? And just the

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Speaker 2: sort of way ahead? And then reforms. We've heard so

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Speaker 2: much about reforms buss the sewermovs or business leadership. They

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Speaker 2: say they've got their own reform tracker and we'll hear

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Speaker 2: a little bit more about that. So lotus to look

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Speaker 2: forward to this evening. Don't forget dating apps after seven

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Speaker 2: o'clock as well. Good to hear from you on O

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Speaker 2: double one, double A three oh seven oh two two

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Speaker 2: one four four six five six seven.

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Speaker 1: The Lonely Show with Stephen krudis live on ninety two

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Speaker 1: point seven and one six FM, streaming on the Prime

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Speaker 1: Media Plus NAP and DStv channel eight five.

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Speaker 2: Six twelve minutes after six, Well, I see news out

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Speaker 2: of China that are the makers of a zempeg are flagging,

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Speaker 2: but they're not expecting their revenues to be quite as high.

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Speaker 2: And the reason for that is just in tense intense competition.

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Speaker 2: A zempic, of course is this weight loss drug. And

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Speaker 2: I sort of look around South Africa for evidence that

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Speaker 2: people are taking a zempic. And I mean it's very

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Speaker 2: difficult to know. Hi, excuse me, you're looking very well.

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Speaker 2: Are you taking a zempic? You know? I mean, go ahead,

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Speaker 2: I'd like to know how that went for you if

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Speaker 2: you tried it. And someone I know talking about a

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Speaker 2: very posh school in a very posh part of a

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Speaker 2: particular city which is neither Joe Burg Pretorian nor Cape

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Speaker 2: Town actually said to me he knows a particular school

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Speaker 2: parking lot that he just caused the parking lot, it's

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Speaker 2: the ozempic parking lot. He was making a comment about

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Speaker 2: the parents who are picking up their children there. He said,

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Speaker 2: you know, clearly o empics all over the place. Have

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Speaker 2: you bumped into it much? Would you consider using it

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Speaker 2: for weight loss? I mean, I know plenty of people

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Speaker 2: who are desperate to lose weight. Are your views? Oh

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Speaker 2: seven two seven oh two one seven two thirteen minutes

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Speaker 2: after six.

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Speaker 1: The Money Show, I'm seven too, Friday, six to a pm.

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Speaker 2: The President Sauramoposa speaking today at the headquarters of SARS.

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Speaker 2: He was praising the way in which the institution has

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Speaker 2: been reformed, how its reformed itself, since the state capture era,

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Speaker 2: also talking about what SARS needs to do now and

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Speaker 2: specifically the elicit economy.

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Speaker 3: We continue to rely on USARS on the ongoing fight

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Speaker 3: against corruption and malfeasans in both the public and the

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Speaker 3: private sectors. Now through lifestyle audits, enforcement actions directed the

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Speaker 3: ilicity economy and other efforts, this organization is playing a

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Speaker 3: critical role and a leading role for that matter. And

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Speaker 3: I saw a demonstration of exactly what you do. And

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Speaker 3: as I looked at all those items that are part

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Speaker 3: of the elicity economy, there are so many and it

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Speaker 3: must be hard, but we need to give you all

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Speaker 3: the support we need. In the past, I used to

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Speaker 3: think that it is tobacco, it's you know, things that

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Speaker 3: come in at least said itally. But it's much more

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Speaker 3: than that. Even toothbrushes. People even bring toothbrushes, and you

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Speaker 3: and your officials have to be agile enough to look

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Speaker 3: at it and say, but this should not be coming

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Speaker 3: in withoutch text.

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Speaker 2: The President speaking this morning. J Vanijo is a partner

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Speaker 2: and head of Strategic Engagement and Compliance. A text consulting essay. J.

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Speaker 2: Just Frien, good evening. I really do appreciate the time.

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Speaker 2: Thank you. I mean, we all know about the tobacco economy,

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Speaker 2: but tooth brushes. I mean, SAS clearly has its work

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Speaker 2: set out for it.

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Speaker 4: Thanks Steven. And look, I mean even if we look

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Speaker 4: at sausa's modernization plan which they recently released, you know,

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Speaker 4: modernization three point zero, well, one of their key external

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Speaker 4: factors that they need to focus on to mitigate threats

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Speaker 4: is while economic voltilty and I listed activities and the

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Speaker 4: list of activities you know underscores well the need for

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Speaker 4: an agile modernization including E invoicing, AI enhannted detection and

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Speaker 4: as we know, goods crossing the borders. While we need

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Speaker 4: those international partnerships because if we look at the last

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Speaker 4: stats on illiicted activities and compliance erosion so to speak,

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Speaker 4: while there were seizures to the value of six point

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Speaker 4: seven billion, and that's not just cigarette, that's anything that

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Speaker 4: has basically going to the country to syndicate a tax

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Speaker 4: and customs crimes and illicit an illegal trade flow.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I can just see a scenario plenty of

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Speaker 2: people will stand up and cheer of SARS says we're

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Speaker 2: going to crack down on the illicit economy, and they

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Speaker 2: go after the illegal cigarettes. The moment that SARS people

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Speaker 2: arrive and start to investigate, for example, a sparser shop,

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Speaker 2: will they you see three men in SARS uniforms arresting

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Speaker 2: someone setting individual cigarettes on the side the road, Society

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Speaker 2: will turn on that. I mean, the illicit economy is

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Speaker 2: so entrenched you don't want to sort of crack the

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Speaker 2: nut too hard.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So that's that's that's correct, and that's why you'll

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Speaker 4: note that over the last year to eighteen months or so,

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Speaker 4: what Source have done gradually is implemented a segmentation model,

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Speaker 4: meaning they have on one side your tax, financial crimes,

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Speaker 4: your illicit and illegal trade flows. On the other hand,

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Speaker 4: you've got large international businesses, then you've got your high

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Speaker 4: wealth individuals, and then you've got most recently probably is

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Speaker 4: your businesses in the gig shad and social media economies.

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Speaker 4: So each one has a different compliance strategy because, as

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Speaker 4: you rightfully said, you know you can't apply this blanket

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Speaker 4: strategy which may work for you know, high wealth individuals

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Speaker 4: or businesses that are looking at profit erosion and think

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Speaker 4: it's going to work the same to the guy that's

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Speaker 4: selling listed cigarettes on the side.

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Speaker 5: Of the road.

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Speaker 2: There's been big promises from the SARAS Commissioner Edward keisvetter,

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Speaker 2: I should really call him the outgoing SACE commissioner. Now

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Speaker 2: I suppose are those promises are going to be actually

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Speaker 2: impossible to keep. I mean, I don't know if I

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Speaker 2: would like to have to be the successor and now

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Speaker 2: you have to keep live up to someone else's promises

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Speaker 2: because expectations are very high. We're going to be looking

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Speaker 2: to SARAS to cover any budget gap.

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Speaker 4: Dook so I mean addressing the tax gap so to speak.

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Speaker 4: While what we've seen over Commissioner Keyswati's term is he

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Speaker 4: has the strategic intent of voluntary compliance and this requires

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Speaker 4: sustainable investment to increase awareness and the certainty of tax

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Speaker 4: obligations and anything that's he's kind of alluded to say

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Speaker 4: while SARS is going to do this as an example,

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Speaker 4: the implementation and use of AI and data science to

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Speaker 4: detect non compliance. Five six years ago, we would have

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Speaker 4: heard that and all thought, wow, this is going to happen.

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Speaker 4: You know it's false South Africa. But here we are

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Speaker 4: seeing it, not saying it's perfect, because I mean they're

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Speaker 4: processing system and one example as well, increase in VAT audits, right,

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Speaker 4: project Duma billion surge in VAT audits, you know, focus

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Speaker 4: on on on PAYE and inter but by running that

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Speaker 4: through some sort of AI model. While it's not perfect,

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Speaker 4: you know, when they process bank statements as an example

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Speaker 4: of taxpayers, we often see a number of duplications, including

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Speaker 4: inter account transfers being classified as income and then en'll

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Speaker 4: see that two hundred percent being imposed. So it's not

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Speaker 4: perfect to work in progress, but my my my view

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Speaker 4: on this is well, if they are promises made, it's

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Speaker 4: not to say it will you know, come to Frusian

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Speaker 4: in the next year or two years or three years.

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Speaker 4: But we see that saus now has a plan. Similarly

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Speaker 4: with their modernization, they've they've actually got a five year

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Speaker 4: roll out with milestones every few months. Instead of just

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Speaker 4: saying we're going to do this and that's that.

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Speaker 2: Keys fait to leave sars I think it's in a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks. I haven't seen much about the appointment

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Speaker 2: of a predecessor of a successor rather, do we need

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Speaker 2: a sort of interview process like we had for kiss Fetter.

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Speaker 4: So typically sarsa's internal processes would say, yes, there must

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Speaker 4: be an interview process, it must be fair, It must

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Speaker 4: be unbiased, and that is most likely what's going on

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Speaker 4: in the background and probably just a little bit less

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Speaker 4: publicized in the last round.

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Speaker 2: Joshua and Baju, thanks very much. Indeed, partner and head

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Speaker 2: of Strategic Engagement and Compliance at Text Consulting. Essay nineteen

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Speaker 2: after six.

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Speaker 1: The Money Show with Stephen Schruit on seven O two

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Speaker 1: seven O two.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's been so much good news about the economy,

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Speaker 2: lower inflation, lower interest rates, hopefully just around the corner,

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Speaker 2: more jobs, higher incomes. But despite all of that, we

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Speaker 2: also it would seem have higher debts, certainly according to

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Speaker 2: Debt Busters. Bene Saga is the executive headed Debt Busters.

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Speaker 2: Bene good even good to talk to chat again. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it seems slightly counterintuitive. Things are supposed to be turning

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Speaker 2: for the good, and yet how debt levels are so high.

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Speaker 2: What do you think is really going on?

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Speaker 6: Thanks Steven for having me on the show. Yeah, I think,

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Speaker 6: as they say, two things can be tree at the

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Speaker 6: same time, we certainly have noted that the wave of

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Speaker 6: optimism about the future definitely holds when you look at

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Speaker 6: consumer expenditures, and perhaps that's part of the clue, you know,

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Speaker 6: in our business we help restructure people's debts in terms

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Speaker 6: of giving them a longer runway and giving them their

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Speaker 6: headroom to repay back the debt that they have. So

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Speaker 6: what we see is of course the byproduct of that.

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Speaker 6: So I think, as they say, two things can be

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Speaker 6: true at the same time. I think while many people

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Speaker 6: have received a lot of relief, particularly with interest rate cuts,

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Speaker 6: you know, those with asset base, there are also a

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Speaker 6: lot of people who have borrowed money without that asset protection,

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Speaker 6: particularly with unsecured that and I think we're seeing some

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Speaker 6: of that come to the fruition now. And I think

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Speaker 6: that's why you're seeing some of the debt pressures on

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Speaker 6: consumers subside.

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Speaker 2: There's been a long pressure of debt building up, I

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Speaker 2: mean the debt crisis, and I suppose I should probably

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Speaker 2: call it that has a very long running momentum behind it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, lower interest rates is not going to make

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Speaker 2: a dent in that momentum rarely. It's been going for

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Speaker 2: so long. I think there's a few factors.

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Speaker 6: I think you know, definitely interest rates play a role

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Speaker 6: in terms of the composition of debt. And why I

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Speaker 6: say that is because you know, when you talk about

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Speaker 6: the time you have to pay off your mortgage is

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Speaker 6: twenty years. The time to pay off your car is okay,

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Speaker 6: maybe these days six or seven years, but let's call

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Speaker 6: it sumher in four to six years. But the time

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Speaker 6: to pay off your personal learner is generally much shorter

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Speaker 6: than that. So if the interest rates move against you

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Speaker 6: or for you, you know, you have a bit longer time

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Speaker 6: to kind of respond, particularly with a mortgage and so on.

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Speaker 2: But I think in.

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Speaker 6: This case where we really got caught out is predominantly

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Speaker 6: because of the lack of increases in take hoompay. And

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Speaker 6: I think I appreciate the conversation you just had about

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Speaker 6: tax and what's going to happen with you know, a

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Speaker 6: next SARS commissioner and so on. I think the tax

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Speaker 6: is quite topical here in the sense that when we

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Speaker 6: look at the take home pay over the last ten years,

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Speaker 6: it hasn't really budged for many people. And I think

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Speaker 6: there's a bit of pickup in the last twelve months

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Speaker 6: or so, But structurally, I think what people are able

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Speaker 6: to take home, adjusting of trax brackets and all of

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Speaker 6: that haven't really moved in our favor over the last

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Speaker 6: several years, and that coupled with the lack of increase

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Speaker 6: in terms of income levels. That's why I think people

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Speaker 6: have had to borrow essentially to keep themselves afloat. And

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Speaker 6: I think that's what you're really seeing here.

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Speaker 2: Is there a sort of age issue here as well?

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Speaker 2: I mean I kind of hope that people as you get,

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Speaker 2: as you sort of get into your mid late fifties,

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Speaker 2: at the stresses of their ease a little bit more.

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Speaker 2: You've been able to manage things, you should certainly get

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Speaker 2: better at managing your money. Although the demands may increase

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Speaker 2: younger people maybe first car things like that can be

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Speaker 2: quite stressful, first house, very stressful. What's happening age wise?

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Speaker 2: It seems that people around the age of forty are

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Speaker 2: actually more stressed than anyone else else. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: can understand that in a way, but I was still

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Speaker 2: a bit surprised.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that is that is true. So certainly,

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Speaker 6: if you look at the overall debt levels compared to income,

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Speaker 6: certainly younger people that would be on the lower end

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Speaker 6: of the spectrum. For example, we compare the overall debt

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Speaker 6: to annual net income ratio and for that for younger

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Speaker 6: people less call them less than thirty five, that would

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Speaker 6: be somewhere around seventy five to eighty five percent, whereas

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Speaker 6: for those over forty it would be one hundred and

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Speaker 6: twenty two hundred and forty percent. And I think what

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Speaker 6: you're seeing there is of course accumulation of the assets

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Speaker 6: that you have to read payback, particularly live with vehicles

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Speaker 6: and homes, and of course our responsibilities also amplify it.

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Speaker 6: But I do want to point something else out also

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Speaker 6: with increased age, generally, we also earn a higher salary.

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Speaker 6: And what's happened in the South African context over the

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Speaker 6: last three and a half four years since the if

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Speaker 6: you can call it the end of the pandemic, if

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Speaker 6: there is such a thing, since early twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 6: we've seen that a fewer number of individuals generally with

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Speaker 6: higher incomes have been the ones borrowing more money. And

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Speaker 6: as a result, I think that is also linked with

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Speaker 6: age generally speaking, and I think that's why you're seeing

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Speaker 6: this correlation between age and income levels and higher levels

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Speaker 6: of debt. We've certainly seen that change since twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 6: and I think that dynamic is a bit different.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I sometimes wonder if you consider the nature

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Speaker 2: of our society, by which I mean so many people

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Speaker 2: coming into the former economy, moving into the suburbs, having

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Speaker 2: to look after so many people. I mean we always

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Speaker 2: called a black tax, but you know, there's so many

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Speaker 2: factors to it that actually we're probably going to be

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Speaker 2: a heavily in debted society more than many others for

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Speaker 2: a very very long period of time. I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: quite disturbing if you consider how long it's been like

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Speaker 2: this and how difficult it's going to be to change.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 6: I think the two ways of looking at it always

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Speaker 6: one is that we are we are a young economy,

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Speaker 6: and I think if you can get a lot a

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Speaker 6: lot of the young people into the workforce, it may

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Speaker 6: look very different.

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Speaker 2: Right now.

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Speaker 6: As part of our challenge is that not enough young

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Speaker 6: people are entering the workforce with meaningful roles and meaningful salary.

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Speaker 6: So their contribution is somewhat marginalized, and it's sitting almost

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Speaker 6: firmly in the informal sector, and it's not really accounted

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Speaker 6: for when it comes to credits, so I think it

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Speaker 6: skews the outcome a little bit. And secondly, the National

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Speaker 6: Credit Act is only and I'm saying only only twenty

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Speaker 6: years old. That's actually not a very long time. I

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Speaker 6: think for many many established places, you have to go back,

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Speaker 6: you know, several decades for things to settle. And I

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Speaker 6: think it's a very good act and it's really brought

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Speaker 6: a lot of things together, and we've had to learn

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Speaker 6: to consolidate a lot of different acts. So we're still

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Speaker 6: in that teenager period when it comes to it, and

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Speaker 6: I think as things settle over the next ten years.

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Speaker 2: I do believe things will look a little bit.

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Speaker 6: Better in terms of debt to income ratios for many

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Speaker 6: South Africans.

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Speaker 2: Ah, I like your optimism, benez Thanks so much, Bene Saga.

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Speaker 2: Someone who's in child who manages debt and is optimistic.

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Speaker 2: Good to know. Benet Sega's executive debt of debt bustards

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Speaker 2: twenty seven after six The Money Show, The Market. Jira

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Speaker 2: Bill Noniana is a vib Clients manager prime XBT Here,

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Speaker 2: good evening, Welcome to the Money Show. Sassil had an

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Speaker 2: update today and they're flagging lower earnings. I mean, we've

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Speaker 2: watched the oil price, we watched other prices. In a way,

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Speaker 2: this is no surprise.

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Speaker 7: I think there's no surprise. I mean, Sasol remains a

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Speaker 7: commodity based company, meaning they are price taking any market.

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Speaker 7: So what management and hasn't in control is the ability

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Speaker 7: to manage internally. And I think they have not shown

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Speaker 7: themselves to be credible in managing internal costs and managing

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Speaker 7: internal operations. And that's kind of come out in the results.

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Speaker 7: I mean, ageps down about ninety percent on the back

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Speaker 7: of a very strong rand and a very weak brain

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Speaker 7: crew price arsalal Mattel.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they cut their losses by sixty percent, but still,

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Speaker 2: you know three what was a three point six billion Rand,

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Speaker 2: and that's despite at great sort of cost to so

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Speaker 2: many people closing the long steale business.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, the long steel business remains a good employer. I mean,

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Speaker 7: if you look at the history of South Africa and

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Speaker 7: Chance Month set up this company a long time ago.

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Speaker 7: It was meant to become employer of people. But right

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Speaker 7: now it's technically insolvent and the material capacity of this

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Speaker 7: business to operate going forward all depends on if they

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Speaker 7: find a buyer of this company, and the Industrial Development

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Speaker 7: Corporation is looking to buy it out. But this result

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Speaker 7: was not great as a major loss.

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Speaker 2: Cumber Iron Ore, I've been watching some of the companies,

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Speaker 2: the mining companies that rely on the logistics, and it's

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Speaker 2: just a sort of one two percent kind of pick up.

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Speaker 2: And it's the same as Cumba. For the quarter their

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Speaker 2: volumes are up one percent. I think there were up

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Speaker 2: two percent in terms of what they're actually able to

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Speaker 2: get to sell Dana over time. That does matter over.

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Speaker 7: Time, it does matter the clog up in the real

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Speaker 7: system and essentially the put public private partnership which need

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Speaker 7: to come fix the real system. But I think it's

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Speaker 7: better than a year ago because if you look at

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Speaker 7: it right now, we were able to get the wet

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Speaker 7: the wet iron or off to export to China, and

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Speaker 7: I mean that's resulted in for your profit profit increasing

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Speaker 7: about twenty three percent on the back of a very

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Speaker 7: strong iron ore price as well as Chinese demands. So overall, good,

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Speaker 7: good set of results. I think the market did expected

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Speaker 7: these results and good for Cumba.

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Speaker 2: In the US, still a very very difficult open markets.

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Speaker 2: They're very I suppose skittish, I don't know that's the

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Speaker 2: right word. Nervous maybe around AI, around software and people

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Speaker 2: almost a little afraid to put their money kind of anywhere.

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Speaker 2: I suppose the argument of the faith doesn't help.

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Speaker 7: I was speaking to my team earlier now morning meeting,

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Speaker 7: and I think I think the markets return into some

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Speaker 7: sense of normalcy because there was like a lot of

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Speaker 7: things out of culture in terms of asset prices. And

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Speaker 7: I think right now, with this fear coming back into

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Speaker 7: risk assets, I think you're getting more fair pricing and

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Speaker 7: the market is starting to price risk correctly on the

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Speaker 7: back of Alpha best results and the big AI spend.

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Speaker 7: I mean, they proposed to spend about one hundred and

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Speaker 7: eighty five billion dollars into the AI spend, and looking

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Speaker 7: at Microsoft results last week, the opportunity cost of investing

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Speaker 7: so much money into AI and it not being revenue

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Speaker 7: generating very quickly is really scaring off the market. I

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Speaker 7: mean right now, even at pre Marketer, we're down about

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Speaker 7: four to five percent, and I mean Advanced micro Devices

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Speaker 7: was down about fifteen percent. So overall, just not a

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Speaker 7: not a good picture on the US this morn this

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Speaker 7: early morning and on us.

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Speaker 2: Open Yo Bill Nonjana, thanks so much, really appreciate that time.

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Speaker 2: VIP Clients manager at prime XBT.

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Speaker 4: Seven O ten with Stephens email him on Stephen at

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Speaker 4: seven O two dot co DOTZ.

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Speaker 2: Eighteen minutes now to seventh the time. Good to have

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Speaker 2: you along enough of course, how to give in touch

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Speaker 2: oh seven two, seven oh two one seven oh two

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Speaker 2: are probably the quickest way. Lis Saka Technologies today saying

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Speaker 2: it's booked its first profit in the quarter to the

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Speaker 2: end of December, operating income by up by over two

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty percent, also hoping to finish its type

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Speaker 2: with bank zero in the next couple of months. Lisaka

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Speaker 2: has been buying tech firms. It provides all sorts of

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Speaker 2: services billing at some supermarkets prebay their time being sold

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Speaker 2: through others. Lincoln Mali is the CEO at Lisaka Technologies.

436
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 2: Lincoln good evening, good to chat on the Money show.

437
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 2: So thank you very much. Indeed for your time. You

438
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 2: made a profit of sixty one million round there was

439
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: a loss of nearly six hundred million in the previous period.

440
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:06,880
Speaker 2: I mean clearly a lot changed in that period.

441
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 8: It's been a long James Steven for the last four

442
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 8: and a half years. We've repositioned the business through organic

443
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 8: growth and some inorganic growth, you know activities, and we're

444
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 8: quite happy that we are at this point. We had

445
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 8: signed posted to the market that will end the financial

446
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 8: year in a net in compositive position and this is

447
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 8: the first quarter where that is starting to happen.

448
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 9: So quite pleased with the results.

449
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 2: You seem quite optimistic the momentum will continue to grow

450
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 2: quite strongly through the year. Now, is bank zero a

451
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 2: big part of that?

452
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 8: No, Steven, We have not included bank zero in our

453
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 8: guidance numbers for financial year during twenty six because although

454
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 8: we've got competition comdition approval, competition tidbinal approval, we're still

455
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 8: waiting for the potential authority approval. We think that in

456
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 8: the businesses that we have, both the merchant business, our

457
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 8: consumer business and our enterprise business have got enough momentum

458
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 8: to be able to carry us through to be able

459
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 8: to meet our guidance.

460
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 2: How are you feeling about the banks here? Business? Obviously, well,

461
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 2: will wait for that approval. But I mean there's a

462
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: lot of competition in the banking space. There's so much

463
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 2: going on. You've got to make your money in different ways.

464
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 2: Otherwise you've got to change its name. I mean, you

465
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 2: must be on one level rubbing your hands and on

466
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 2: the other level, you know, how are we going to

467
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:36,199
Speaker 2: do this?

468
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 9: Yeah?

469
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,639
Speaker 8: We we real like players on the outside waiting for

470
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 8: the ref to get the game started. So hopefully the

471
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 8: the the regulators will be able to give her the

472
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 8: go ahead. But a couple of things that are important

473
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 8: for us. Firstly, the biggest signal was if entrepreneurs like

474
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 8: Michael Judan and Ya Tin could build a business from

475
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 8: the ground up and then when we buy them, the

476
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 8: ninety percent of the transaction is through equity and for

477
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 8: them to be buying into the future of Lisaka is

478
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 8: a big sign for us and the first and out

479
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 8: for a fintech to buy into a bank. The second

480
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 8: thing is that this gives us an opportunity to change

481
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 8: our business models fundamentally.

482
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 9: Today we borrow.

483
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 8: Money from commercial banks and on land to consumers and merchants.

484
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 8: But with Bank zero, will be able to fund those

485
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 8: loan books through bank deposits and that will be about

486
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 8: a billion RAN swing positive in our balance seat and

487
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 8: give us a much more efficient way of funding our

488
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 8: loan books and be able to give us the opportunity

489
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 8: to grow that lending even further. And lastly, they built

490
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 8: an amazing text check which is quite.

491
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 9: Modern and when you combine.

492
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 8: That text deck with our large distribution in town ships,

493
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 8: and villages with merchants and consumers. I think this is

494
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 8: going to be a nice tech and touch model going forward,

495
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 8: will give us the opportunity to compete.

496
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 9: Yeah.

497
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: No, I mean I'm very intrigued and looking forward to

498
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 2: see how it all plays out with you and the

499
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 2: other players. One of the things you do, and I

500
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 2: don't need to remind you, but one of the things

501
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 2: you do is that you also sell prepaid airtime. We

502
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: saw from Vodcom yesterday they seem to be getting less

503
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 2: revenue from prepaid calls. Are you finding that as well?

504
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 8: Yes, we think airtime is an area that is going

505
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 8: to see more competitive dynamics with firstly consumers changing the

506
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 8: chunnels where they buy their airtime, and secondly there's mugin

507
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 8: compression in that space. We're facing the same headwinds, but

508
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 8: in the model that we've built, we've built a model

509
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 8: that's not based on one product set. We've built a

510
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 8: model that gives us opportunities with more solutions, and hence

511
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 8: we've bought the different companies that we've bought. That gives

512
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 8: us the oppertionality to give a holistic solution to a client.

513
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 2: Is it just the competition or is it also about

514
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 2: behavior change and people making calls on WhatsApp.

515
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 8: Absolutely, the change we'll see. There are also other dynamics,

516
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 8: people sometimes going to you know, Wi Fi hotspots when

517
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 8: they don't need to buy airtime because they can be

518
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 8: able to you know, connect to the network and things

519
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 8: of that sort. So just openly just focusing on airtime

520
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 8: is not the way to go. There are other ways

521
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 8: that we are working on to be able to deal

522
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 8: with the market pressus. Whether it's how we buy the

523
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 8: airtime and how we sell the airtime and what we

524
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 8: bundle with the airtime are all the kinds of things

525
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 8: that we've got cooking, you know a kitten.

526
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: You've also been part of the launch of our first

527
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 2: safe South Africa's first stable coin, a cryptocurrency linked to

528
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 2: the RAND. I mean, so much is changing in that space,

529
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 2: but of a tough time for a lot of cryptocurrencies

530
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 2: at the moment. Linking well, I think, yeah, so yeah,

531
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 2: I was just going to say, what role do you

532
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 2: think our stable coin is going to play?

533
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 8: I think the stability that's brought by a stable coin

534
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 8: is the fact that it's packed to a fiad currency.

535
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 8: Others are linked to a commodity, but there's ours is

536
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 8: packed to our RAND. We think that all of these

537
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:36,120
Speaker 8: technology are great. Technologies are great when they're solving intactical problems.

538
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 8: Cross border payments is inefficient, cross border payments are expensive.

539
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 8: Cross border payments do not give people a cost effective

540
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 8: ways of doing this. This gives people security and so

541
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 8: we've partnered with Luna some special affect management easier equities

542
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 8: than others in order to be able to enable people

543
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 8: to have twenty four by seven settlements of.

544
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:04,479
Speaker 9: Their cross boarder pinyons.

545
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 8: Also, this gives us an opportunity to connect the RAND

546
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 8: to global blockchain economies and also be able to support

547
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 8: fintial inclusion with something we're quite patient about.

548
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 9: But what makes this unique is that we're building on

549
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 9: global tens.

550
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 8: But we're tailoring this to local needs and that's why

551
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 8: we're quite proud to be part of this partnership with

552
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 8: the other players to bring Zaru into the market.

553
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 2: Lincoln Marley, thanks so much for the time. The CEO

554
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 2: at Lesaca Technologies. It's eleven minutes now to seven.

555
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 10: The Money Show, Stephen Crutchez is brought to you by

556
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 10: Absolve Corporate and Investment Banking balancing economic growth with ecosystems.

557
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 10: That's how they've invested in your story.

558
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 2: Nine minutes is seven the time. Well, last week you

559
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 2: heard the head of Operation will and Leila Rudy Dix

560
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 2: on The Money Show saying he believes that reform is

561
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 2: making progress. There are some areas who was worried about.

562
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 2: We did have a conversation around electricity Business Leadership essay

563
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 2: today relating its own score on its own reform tracking mechanism.

564
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 2: They say the overall score is now twenty four percent,

565
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,719
Speaker 2: but it is worried. I think the word they use

566
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: is reversal about certain reforms in the electricity sector. The

567
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 2: CEO Businesses says Samvuso SASA, good evening, as I understand

568
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 2: that the main issue in electricity at the moment seems

569
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: to be government's change of heart over whether to properly

570
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 2: break up ESCUM and have an independent system operator. Is

571
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 2: that the big issue for you?

572
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 11: That is definitely the big issue. We see this as

573
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 11: a reversal, as a U tend as a capitulation, as

574
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 11: a deviation. As a dealer, I can't think of an absynonym.

575
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 11: You know, it's all of those, you know and more

576
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 11: because we're very clear about what we're doing when we're

577
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 11: actually said we're going to unbundled es COM. And I

578
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 11: think that is an electricity regulation at steven is actually

579
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 11: very constructive on this one. It mandates the creation of

580
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 11: an independent transmission system operator and it lists as one

581
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 11: of the TSO's duties being a transmitter. A transmitter is

582
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 11: clearly defined as an entity that owns and operates the

583
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 11: transmission system. This implies control and ownership of the grade.

584
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 11: It also is very clear, you know, in that NASA

585
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 11: has to license the TSO to operate the transmission facilities,

586
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 11: which requires the TSO to demonstrate control over the assets

587
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 11: it intends to operate. Now, what the MILITA is announced

588
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 11: in December is not in line with this mandate actually

589
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 11: as come retaining the ownership of the country's transmission assets

590
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 11: and infrastructure, you know, it represents a significant deviation from

591
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 11: the reform path that has been articulated and committed to,

592
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 11: and it seriously undermines the intent of reform, and it

593
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 11: seriously weakens the independence of the transmission function. And this

594
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 11: is actually an economic consensutive.

595
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 2: I mean, as I understand the argument, what they're saying,

596
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 2: what government says is if they break up ESCUME, it

597
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 2: could trigger across default from eskam's lenders. In other words,

598
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 2: all the money that these lenders are owned by government

599
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 2: could become due. I mean that seems a bit apocalyptic

600
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 2: to me. Is there something else going on?

601
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 11: You know? I absolutely agreed, because when you talk to

602
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 11: they only had the engagement with the lenders, by the way,

603
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 11: was it two days ago or what were the cases,

604
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 11: and that actually didn't go well. So I really think

605
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 11: that that is a red herring because when we took

606
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 11: the Transmission Company, the establishment of National Transmission Company of

607
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 11: South Africa out of ESCOM, lenders were engaged because the

608
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 11: same consent you know, actually had to be addressed, you know,

609
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 11: to see whether this is actually going to trigger that covenant.

610
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 11: So lenders knew that after the removing of the NTCSA,

611
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 11: there's now going to be the second part, which is

612
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 11: actually going to be the removal of the assets into

613
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 11: the NTCSA to hold for the Tso, so this is

614
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 11: not a new engagement that they were actually going to

615
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 11: have with the lenders. So when you actually talk to

616
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 11: the lenders, when you talk to the bankers, when you

617
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 11: talk to the asset managers. They will actually tell you

618
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 11: that the issue of the transference of assets, you know,

619
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 11: the issue that is common is li tually raising as

620
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 11: a concern. Here is something that they deal with every day.

621
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 11: Renegotiating that covenance in assetra structuring is neither nay well

622
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 11: nor is a taboo. It happens routinely and daily, and

623
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,239
Speaker 11: I think we are better off as a country, they

624
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 11: are better off as lenders. Sitting with a TSO that

625
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 11: has these transmission assets, which can therefore have a strong

626
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 11: balance sheet Steve in a case which they can raise

627
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 11: the four hundred billion rands you know that is required

628
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 11: to build the fourteen thousand kilometers of transmission lines that

629
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 11: this country leads. And without those assets, it puts this

630
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 11: TSO in a very weak position. Because the National Trailer

631
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 11: has been very clear that they're not going to give

632
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 11: government guarantees to this thing. It has to find a

633
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 11: way of operating on its own. And the strength it

634
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 11: was actually going to have is having these transmission assets.

635
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 11: Now this action really undermines all of that. So this

636
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 11: feels for me as if we are actually protecting es common,

637
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 11: we're not driving national interests. And it's very interesting because

638
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 11: the Minister has continuously said that what I'm doing here

639
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 11: in the Spies energy reform is content is not protecting

640
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 11: comp It is about ensuring that this country has energy security.

641
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 11: So we are seeing now the conflation stealing of s

642
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 11: CON's institutional interest with the national interest. So it is

643
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 11: very concerning and I really think that we're going to

644
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 11: have to find, you know, a resolve resolution for this issue.

645
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: I mean, I worry that this dispute. I mean generally speaking,

646
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: the business sector, the private sect, many other parts of

647
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 2: society and government have been on the same page. I mean,

648
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 2: could this sort of you know, unravel all of that

649
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 2: the last thing we need at this moment, just as

650
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 2: we're seeing some progress.

651
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 11: Absolutely, you know, And I think I worry that because

652
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 11: the energy reform has been the first one, you know

653
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 11: to actually show the world, not just South Africa, how

654
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 11: serious we are about from remember the S and P

655
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 11: just that traded us in the last quarter, you know,

656
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 11: saying they're very pleased about the progress that we've made.

657
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 11: Now we have said to investors all over the world

658
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 11: we are opening up, you know, in liberalizing our energy market.

659
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 11: Come and invest you know in South Africa, and come

660
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 11: and bring your mind, and that has brought the money.

661
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 11: Two hundred billion rants west of investments are underway, which

662
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 11: are actually going to need you know, this transmission company

663
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 11: to will their electricity to.

664
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:27,760
Speaker 9: The end user.

665
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 11: Now with s com keeping you know, the TSO or

666
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 11: the transmission assets deciding you know, who's actually going to

667
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 11: be given the willing rights or who's actually going to

668
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 11: be prioritized you know, in the willing you know, is

669
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 11: that therefore you know, going to be fair. So I

670
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 11: worry that this capitulation might actually set a very bad

671
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 11: precedence for transport logistics. For instance, you know, there's the

672
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 11: eleven private rail operators that have actually been brought on stree,

673
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 11: you know, based on certain commitments by government. This government

674
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 11: now unilaterally, without engaging all of this stakeholders, decides to capitulate,

675
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 11: decides to therefore remake on their commitments, decide to actually

676
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 11: take a different cost, you know, which seriously undermines what

677
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 11: we intention, what we initially intended to achieve in as

678
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 11: far as reform is content, we're actually going to treading

679
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 11: a very dangerous path as giving and this could actually

680
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 11: be quite yeah, so an economic content.

681
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 2: Really let's just talk about where there has been progressed

682
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 2: and we do need to reflect this. I mean the

683
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: logistics area in particular. We do start to see the

684
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 2: major changes and that is important and some of that

685
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 2: could have an economic impact, if not already very soon.

686
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 11: So what is very interesting for me is that the

687
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 11: network industry is stiving for us two three years of

688
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 11: the ago business was actually saying network industries is where

689
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 11: we actually need to start for network industries, energy, transport, logistics,

690
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 11: wartime telecoms. Telecoms was the only one that was functioning

691
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 11: as it should. Energy we have see in progress. Now

692
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 11: the other two that have been legging behind are now

693
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 11: feeling progress. More progress in fright you know that we're

694
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 11: actually seeing in water. So I think that is quite

695
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 11: sexually encouraging because it means that the trading environment is conducive.

696
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 11: And if that is condusive, you know, it means it's

697
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 11: easy to trade and operate in this country. That will

698
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 11: increase business confidence. Business confidence going up will mean investment

699
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 11: will come in. If investment comes in, the growth is

700
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 11: going to therefore tickup. And if the growth ticks up,

701
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 11: you're therefore going to see the unemployment being dealt with.

702
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 11: So frighten logistics is actually going ahead very well. Ten

703
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 11: around blends are showing progress. Translates, operations you know, are

704
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 11: actually improving, you know, the product see participation is advancing.

705
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 11: And the one that is actually interesting for me is

706
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 11: the improvements that we're seeing in the passenger rail with

707
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 11: the South African that is seriously under pleasure you know,

708
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 11: from just an economic perspective. Then being able to now

709
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,800
Speaker 11: once again access this cheap form of transport therefore means

710
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 11: that they have more funds you know, in their disposal

711
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 11: for them to be able to contribute to consumer spending,

712
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 11: and we might literuly be seeing it, but you're seeing

713
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,720
Speaker 11: a little tickup you know in the GDP because consumer

714
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 11: spending is obviously a huge component of the GDP. So

715
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 11: that is aterually quite interesting. The visas we've spoken about

716
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 11: quite a lot, but I think the one that we're

717
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 11: still excited about, you know, is the fact that we're

718
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 11: virtually exited from the first half playlist, and of course

719
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 11: that made headlines last year. But progress in a whole

720
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 11: lot of areas, including water by the way, so we

721
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 11: are really giving real effects, you know to the reform

722
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 11: agender functioning in this country, and it has really produced

723
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 11: good results versus hum.

724
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 2: I've also thank you so much really to appreciate it,

725
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 2: the see your business leadership South Africa so much to

726
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 2: sort of look at. I mean, we are making progress

727
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 2: with reform. The problem is when you get to these

728
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 2: difficult bits, and I think for ESCOM to be broken

729
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 2: up is almost the epitome of the difficult bits because

730
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 2: it's government giving up power effectively. I do wonder if

731
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 2: that's one of the issues. We will be talking about

732
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 2: dating app in a moment. When was the last time

733
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 2: you looked at the dating app? Just having a quick

734
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 2: look around. It's seven o'clock.

735
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 1: And now the Money Show with Stephen credits on seven

736
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:12,439
Speaker 1: o two.

737
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 2: Let's walk little. The Money Show with Stephen Crutis is

738
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 2: brought to you by abs of corporate and investment banking,

739
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 2: balancing economic growth with ecosystems. That's how they're invested in

740
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 2: your story. At seven after seven the time we will

741
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 2: of course have a your tech feature. In just a

742
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: moment you put males Zondie talking about dating apps, they

743
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 2: seem to have run their course a little bit. I mean,

744
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 2: I think for people of my generation, if you ask

745
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 2: the question where did you meet your spouse. The most

746
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 2: common response for a long time was that a wedding,

747
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 2: actually the community was there, your cousin's friends, sister, came along,

748
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 2: whatever it was, and so you would bump into someone

749
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 2: who was kind of from the same strata of society

750
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 2: as you, which is where most people meet their spouse,

751
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,760
Speaker 2: and in the end that's how you are meet someone.

752
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 2: I was amazed when about ten years ago I read

753
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 2: that actually in many parts of the world now it

754
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: was dating apps, and particularly in places like New York

755
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,399
Speaker 2: or London. You know, I know people here in South

756
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 2: Africa who met on Tinder or whoever it was. In

757
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 2: some way it seems that maybe they're not doing as

758
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 2: well to letters. Zondie's been investigating small business focus, you

759
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 2: know for years, I mean literally years. We've had president

760
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 2: after presidents saying that they're going to make sure government

761
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 2: doesn't pay small businesses. Later and we still have that problem.

762
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 2: Trentwe we'll talk to you about that and then and

763
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 2: then an investment school inflation, how to keep your money

764
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 2: working during inflation. Looking forward to speaking to Vincent, Anthony

765
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 2: Raja and asunder.

766
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 1: Notche Thelney Show with Stephen Krudis Live on ninety two

767
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: point seven and one six FM streaming on the Prime

768
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 1: Media plus.

769
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,720
Speaker 4: NAP and DStv channel eight five six.

770
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 2: I've been keeping half an eye on the various inquiries

771
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 2: in Parliament into the Road Accident Fund and some of

772
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 2: the issues. I mean, you've had the previous board making

773
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 2: claims and trying to defend themselves, and I mean there

774
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 2: are a couple of things that just, you know, stand out.

775
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 2: I mean, the one is the way in which it

776
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 2: is run. It's just no longer feasible. We need a

777
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 2: whole new system. And I get a sense that sort

778
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: of political momentum is growing for that. There was a

779
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 2: wonderful quote that explains I think the Road Accident Fund

780
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 2: but many other institutions as well, coming out of the

781
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 2: Inquiryum Colleccor Klangwe he's from the IFP, he's been the

782
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 2: national spokesperson for some time. He's also now the Deputy

783
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 2: Minister of Transport. He was the chair of the Standing

784
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 2: Committee on Public Accounts and he was involved in trying

785
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 2: to sort of curtail some of the worst of the

786
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 2: Road Accident Fund. And he was testifying and he said this,

787
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 2: He said the Road Accident Fund was a playground of

788
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:54,880
Speaker 2: ulterior motives. I love that a playground of ulterior motives.

789
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 2: And actually, when you think about it, there are plenty

790
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 2: of other places that have been like that. There was

791
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 2: a time when the National Lotteries Commission was like that.

792
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 2: You know, people came and basically play to enrich themselves.

793
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:10,760
Speaker 2: Those are the ulterior motives You've seen it in other places.

794
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 2: Sometimes I think you see a council that can look

795
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 2: a bit like that. There's a sort of you know

796
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 2: that sort of just looks like I means Abela, And

797
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 2: it's probably hard to argue it wasn't that a playground

798
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 2: of ulterior motives, And that seems sometimes to be the incentive,

799
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 2: I'm afraid to say, to get into certain positions. We

800
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 2: see it with the police too. Sometimes people want to

801
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 2: get into senior positions not because they get more money

802
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 2: or more sort of legal power, but because of the

803
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: power it gets them in other ways. Just wonder how

804
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 2: many places you can think of that are a playground

805
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 2: for ulterior motives. Oh seven two seven two one seven

806
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 2: two The Money Show take Thursday. Well, it might be

807
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 2: that when you wake up in the morning and you

808
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 2: look at your spouse, you think the day that you

809
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 2: swiped the right way to meet your spouse on a

810
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:03,240
Speaker 2: dating and in fact, the mayor of New York or around,

811
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 2: Mam Dany originally from Cape Town, says he met his

812
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 2: wife Mara Douergi, on Bumble, which is one of the

813
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 2: many dating apps. But many people are saying, actually they're

814
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 2: suffering from swipe fatigue. Super Medella Zondi, Good Evening Are

815
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 2: takeare expert? What's wrong with everyone's thumb? Super Meleele.

816
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 12: Hello Susan. So yes, it seems like people are suffering.

817
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 12: But the thing is a lot of these platforms that

818
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:32,760
Speaker 12: we use on I think about any social media platform,

819
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 12: for example, the build for us to keep on swiping right,

820
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 12: because you have many options where there's many options of content.

821
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 12: In this particular case, you have many possible suitors. So

822
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 12: you'll keep on swiping until you think you're looking for

823
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 12: you're finding the perfect match or the one who is

824
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,799
Speaker 12: more perfect than the previous one that you thought was

825
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:57,239
Speaker 12: was perfect because you found a better one. So people

826
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:00,399
Speaker 12: keep on then just keep on swiping, and so that's

827
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 12: what's creating this problem. And you find that someone five

828
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 12: years later, but like one of you know, this app

829
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 12: for about five years, I still haven't found anybody yet.

830
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 12: I haven't reached his zoranmam done. It's luck in finding

831
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 12: a suitor, and so that's basically what it is. And

832
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,319
Speaker 12: so they're saying, well, there's a slight fatigue on these

833
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 12: apps where people then possibly start to give up and

834
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 12: to start thinking that they'll probably never find someone they

835
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 12: can spend the rest of their lives with.

836
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 2: I mean, is there a research and how successful these are?

837
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 2: And I mean, you know, there's the short term success. Well,

838
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: I met someone who we've been going out for a month.

839
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 2: There's the long term success. I met someone we've been

840
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: going out for two years, or I met someone who

841
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 2: got married, or I met someone who got married, and

842
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 2: over the longer term wasn't great.

843
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,359
Speaker 12: Where As you say, success is measured in different ways,

844
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 12: and for a very long time, a lot of these

845
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 12: platforms are measuring their success by the number of people

846
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 12: that are staying on the app. But it seems like

847
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,879
Speaker 12: people go at less and as they go back less

848
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 12: and they start to worry about whether they're still as

849
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 12: successful as as they used to be. And so it

850
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 12: depends on how you measure success. But people are there

851
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,360
Speaker 12: to find someone that can possibly spend the rest of

852
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 12: their life with. They're not there to be kept on

853
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 12: for the next five years. And as more people get older,

854
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:27,280
Speaker 12: perhaps than they need to start to appeal to younger

855
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 12: demographics as they get on, because when they started, millennials

856
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,919
Speaker 12: where the people who were possibly starting to look for

857
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 12: life partners. But as with glen Z, now gen Z

858
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,839
Speaker 12: is competing with so much and so much online, and

859
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 12: they're the ones who are saying that, actually, no, we

860
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 12: don't want to be on these mess anymore.

861
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 2: I suppose what these apps really need is a proper

862
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 2: turnover reviewsers. I mean, what should happen over the longer terms.

863
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 2: You might use it for a few years, your life

864
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 2: of being a person who is single looking for a

865
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:00,879
Speaker 2: relationship in that way will come name because you meet

866
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:03,319
Speaker 2: someone on the app and so you move on. I mean,

867
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 2: I'm presuming once you've met someone you don't look at

868
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 2: the apps again. But so much has changed, I mean,

869
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 2: maybe I'm wrong, and that's what should happen. What they

870
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 2: don't seem to be doing is sort of regenerating or

871
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 2: getting new users in.

872
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 12: Well, that's the thing, right, And also the reasons people

873
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 12: are using some of these apps because I also can

874
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 12: found is that there are people who are not there,

875
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 12: who are there as an experiment. They want to test

876
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 12: their flirting skills. For example, some people are faking who

877
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 12: they are. Remember the Tinder swindler for example, They're faking

878
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 12: who they are. So it's the authenticity of what you

879
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 12: can find on these apps as well, which also then

880
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 12: results in people who are possibly thinking that they're not

881
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:54,479
Speaker 12: going to find authentic relationships if they're there, or they're

882
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:57,439
Speaker 12: not going to find the right kind of person who's

883
00:46:57,440 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 12: possibly the best person for them, or they just are

884
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 12: there to play around them to test whether they can

885
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 12: flirt or not.

886
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:10,840
Speaker 2: So these appsods they're going to use AI. Now, Super Maleta,

887
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 2: I'm old enough to know this that if you want

888
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 2: something to me to be more authentic, AI is not

889
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:16,800
Speaker 2: where you start.

890
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 12: So what they're saying is that because of authenticity issues,

891
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 12: AI is going to if you give it permission. And

892
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:31,359
Speaker 12: this is also where privacy issues also might come in.

893
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 12: AI might go through your fossil gallery to find things

894
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 12: that you are interested in, and then it's going to

895
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,399
Speaker 12: limit to the search. So instead of constantly showing you

896
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 12: a variety of individuals that you can pick from, it's

897
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:49,959
Speaker 12: going to limit to the search and say, well, maybe

898
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 12: there are these five individuals and one of the five

899
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 12: is your best mate in life as opposed to five

900
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:02,439
Speaker 12: hundred and you the scrolling. But again, it's how much

901
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 12: you are given up to the app itself, because it

902
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 12: needs to go through certain information, It needs to go

903
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 12: through your device in order to figure out who you

904
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 12: actually are in order to or to find the perfect

905
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 12: match for you.

906
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 2: There's another thing I suppose, which is that I mean

907
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 2: at a lot of people are just a little bit younger,

908
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:24,320
Speaker 2: just a little bit younger than me, so familia, I

909
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:26,399
Speaker 2: have sort of grown up thinking, well, this is how

910
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 2: you find a partner, right, But it is very new

911
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 2: in human history. Now, I must just say different societies

912
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 2: have had different ways of doing this for a very

913
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 2: long time, and the idea of a romantic love and

914
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 2: getting married for that reason is only about maybe three

915
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 2: four hundred years old. In fact, some societies families arrange things.

916
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:52,720
Speaker 2: In some societies, families arrange things after advertising in newspapers.

917
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 2: All of that, I do wonder if maybe apps, well

918
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 2: the dating apps, I think, will always be around. I

919
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 2: mean they've been dating services for you know. Maybe seventy

920
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 2: years that just won't be as prominent, will kind of

921
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 2: lose interest in them. It will be something somebody does

922
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 2: for six months and moves on.

923
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 12: It also depends on how society evolves because there's also

924
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 12: a safety element right where in the past you could

925
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 12: you use the example of a wedding, whereas people are

926
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 12: now more wary of meeting people in public spaces and

927
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 12: people tend to and also our social skills. Because you

928
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 12: spend a lot of time on digital devices, a lot

929
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 12: of people have lost that human to human interaction that

930
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 12: used to happen easily back in the day. And so

931
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 12: it also depends on how our society evolves because with

932
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 12: this as well, it goes to even where you are

933
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:53,720
Speaker 12: finding that people will have AI boughts being companions for example,

934
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 12: in their lives, and that's being tested in certain parts

935
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 12: of the world where people have machine and opposed to

936
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 12: human companions. So again it really does depend on the

937
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:10,720
Speaker 12: direction that different societies take as they as they evolve,

938
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 12: and how much humans and human interaction actually happens and

939
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 12: how much. I mean, we've actually even been finding out

940
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 12: that the people who prefer spending their their time alone,

941
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,440
Speaker 12: so so those people might think that a machine might

942
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 12: be a better companion than using a machine to find

943
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 12: a human. You can spend the rest of your life west.

944
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,880
Speaker 2: With every instinct and every fiber of my being. I

945
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: know that's wrong, it has to be wrong.

946
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:37,720
Speaker 7: But you need humans.

947
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 12: You need humans in your life. You need humans to

948
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 12: point communicates with Unit, you need humans to divan up

949
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 12: as a human. So you need humans.

950
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 2: I agree with you. There, Oh, super Malaenna, we need

951
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:54,319
Speaker 2: to have a beer. Supermellernis experts in person, Thank you

952
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 2: very much. Indeed, nineteen after seven.

953
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 1: The money shows small business focus.

954
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 2: So often when I speak to small businesses, speak to

955
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 2: the people who run them, and hear them here and

956
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 2: something that comes through is such a consistent thread is

957
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 2: this complaint about late payments. You just can't get the

958
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 2: money your own. Now, if you're a bigger company, you

959
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 2: have a whole department that does it, You outsource it,

960
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 2: You get an oak, you put them in a big suit,

961
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 2: and off he goes and gets you the money. You're

962
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 2: a small business. The oak you've got to send us

963
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 2: the owner and she's busy, she's got other things to do.

964
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 2: On Twente is the managing director advantage at Viountary, Lord Clado,

965
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 2: good to see you, Thanks so much for coming in.

966
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 2: I mean, we hear this complaint all the time. It

967
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 2: must have such a big impact.

968
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 5: That's the good evening, yes, But on one of the

969
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 5: biggest risks that we are picking up now when it

970
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,360
Speaker 5: comes to smb is. It's not that there's no business

971
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 5: so that they kind of get seen, but the biggest

972
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:51,720
Speaker 5: risk they're feeling, especially for thosem is that do business

973
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:55,240
Speaker 5: with government, you find that most of them they'll complain

974
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:58,600
Speaker 5: about the fact that the issue of the late payments

975
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 5: and it's something that it's impact has a very very

976
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 5: you know impact when it comes to one cash flow.

977
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 5: You know, it can get to a point where you

978
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 5: find that rental is not paid, salaries are not paid

979
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:16,840
Speaker 5: because one would have really you know, got this particular project,

980
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 5: you know, and that's the hope that listen. Business is

981
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 5: growing things that in a round you spend a lot

982
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 5: of money for like a month.

983
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 2: Or two to deliver that particular project.

984
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 5: Then you send your inversity to a particular department, to

985
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:31,799
Speaker 5: a municipality, you find that instead of you know, the

986
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 5: normal what inational Treasury says that it should take at

987
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 5: least thirty days for you to get paid. But on

988
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:41,520
Speaker 5: average it takes about turn righteen eighty six days just

989
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:45,840
Speaker 5: for municipalities to pay their inverses. And that's what audited

990
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 5: you know said actually to say about forty seven percent

991
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:52,759
Speaker 5: of the municipalities don't pay their invoices on time. And

992
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 5: and and again that's not only municipalities, but even national

993
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 5: and provincial departments are some of the biggest cultures.

994
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 2: Relation to that. In my article I know about but

995
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 2: the five billion rants that.

996
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 5: Are not paid to sms who have delivered work, submitted

997
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 5: the inverses on time. However, because of the bureaucracy that

998
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 5: you will have, and therefore that's a very important aspect.

999
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:17,279
Speaker 5: I believe that in twenty twenty six we really have

1000
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:20,320
Speaker 5: to bring it out out there, especially to government, to say, look,

1001
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 5: public precummend is very important.

1002
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 2: It does assist sm is.

1003
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:27,040
Speaker 5: By the way, government is one of the biggest finders,

1004
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,400
Speaker 5: you know, the expeditions of over two trillion. So therefore all

1005
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 5: of these goods and services that are buying SMS do

1006
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 5: participate in terms of that. However, even though that sm

1007
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 5: is assumed that okay, things are going to get better,

1008
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:42,799
Speaker 5: but if you don't get paid on time. You find

1009
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 5: that your business now you need to scale down a

1010
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 5: little bit. So therefore these are the issues that government

1011
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 5: has to take it very seriously.

1012
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 2: But more than important is to say how do we.

1013
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:55,320
Speaker 5: Implement consequence manishment Because the policies are clear, the regulations

1014
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 5: are clear till BEPFMA is clear that pays suppliers within

1015
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:03,000
Speaker 5: thirty days. How Ever the officials don't realistic to that

1016
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 5: and the impact, you know, it becomes pretty much layer.

1017
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 2: So, I mean, the reasons why this happens. In some councils,

1018
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:13,359
Speaker 2: they don't have the money. In some councils, they are

1019
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:17,280
Speaker 2: processes that have been put there for quite a few reasons,

1020
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:21,720
Speaker 2: for quite a few very important reasons, because of situations

1021
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 2: around the fact that they've had problems with misspending in

1022
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 2: the past and things like that. Those are all very important.

1023
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 5: It's wrong, but at the end of the day, it

1024
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 5: all boils down to the controls that should be implemented

1025
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 5: at a garbine level because it's not justified.

1026
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 2: You know, the fact that tender has been awarded. Then

1027
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:45,879
Speaker 2: you find that at the end.

1028
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 5: Of the day someone says, look, the budget is not

1029
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 5: there for that so these are the controls that have

1030
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 5: to be implemented. These are the controls have to be

1031
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 5: monitored before you allow suppliers to come in into the

1032
00:54:57,120 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 5: business and then to find that they deliver the product right.

1033
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 5: And then once the product is delivered, then it takes

1034
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 5: all of this number of days and some of those issues,

1035
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 5: you find that it will be submitted on time right,

1036
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 5: either a particular manager is not available to sign off

1037
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 5: on that particular po or either particular CFO is not

1038
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 5: around to sign off all of those pios. So these

1039
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 5: are the solutions that I think some somehow we need

1040
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 5: to bring to the fault to say, look, it shouldn't

1041
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 5: affect the business owner because the impact at the end

1042
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 5: of the day, we always talk about a job creation

1043
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:31,160
Speaker 5: and the moment and all of a sudden, you're not

1044
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 5: coming to the platy.

1045
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 2: You're destroying the same thing that we always talk about. So,

1046
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 2: I mean, we've had three presidents promised that this will

1047
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:42,360
Speaker 2: sorted out right and it hasn't been done. Now, now

1048
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:45,879
Speaker 2: I would like to think that they were they meant

1049
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 2: what they said. Yeah, the reason it didn't happen wasause

1050
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 2: it's actually very hard. Now, I mean, government generally, and

1051
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:54,920
Speaker 2: I look at the testimony we're seeing with the SAPs.

1052
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 2: I mean it's someone again, someone uncument And I can

1053
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 2: see a situation where the moment is easier to pay someone,

1054
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:03,799
Speaker 2: people are going to say hold on, hold on, hold on.

1055
00:56:04,040 --> 00:56:06,040
Speaker 2: That means it's also easier for the money to go

1056
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 2: to the wrong person. I must just say, though, that

1057
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:11,280
Speaker 2: with the procedures we have now, the money still sometimes

1058
00:56:11,640 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 2: to get to the wrong person. So I don't know

1059
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 2: if that's an argument.

1060
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, and and and and what we've picked up is

1061
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,720
Speaker 5: to say, yes, this has been such so many times,

1062
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 5: to say let's prioritize early payments. And policies have been there,

1063
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 5: regulations have been there. But what is laking heesterevin is

1064
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:32,160
Speaker 5: consequence management.

1065
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, government you've been reading

1066
00:56:34,680 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 2: in order to General's report again exactly.

1067
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 5: That's only if we can get to a point where

1068
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:43,080
Speaker 5: consequence management, public officials are held accountable and someone has

1069
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:45,279
Speaker 5: to answer, someone has to lose a job, or someone

1070
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 5: has to pay for all of this interest and penalties,

1071
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 5: because government is really incurring huge amounts of interest and

1072
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:55,920
Speaker 5: penalties abou footing bill on rands in the Detentioneneral Report

1073
00:56:55,920 --> 00:57:00,600
Speaker 5: twenty and four that municipality. Municipality is incurred the result

1074
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 5: of lead papers, but at the end of the day,

1075
00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:05,680
Speaker 5: who's accountable for that and there's no one. So the

1076
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 5: moment we solve that issue of consequence management and we implement,

1077
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 5: then we'll have it burrow way. But we've noticed that

1078
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 5: so somehow corruption also clips in because you find a

1079
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 5: sequestion now that if you don't have the relationships inside

1080
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 5: to push your inverses, you end up having what we're

1081
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:27,160
Speaker 5: picking up during the day, that you will have internal

1082
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:29,440
Speaker 5: stateholders or prioritizing certain inverses.

1083
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 2: Other inverses are not prioritized. And it's not supplys like

1084
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 2: that at all, not at all. John Claido, good to see.

1085
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for coming in and really do appreciate it.

1086
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 2: Clado on Twentwest Managing Director, Advantage Advisory, The Money Show,

1087
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 2: Investment School. Well, in Investment School, we're talking tonight about inflation.

1088
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 2: There was a time when there was a politician. His

1089
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:51,760
Speaker 2: name was Ronald Reagan. He was the President of the

1090
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:54,360
Speaker 2: United States in the nineteen eighties, and he came to

1091
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 2: office at a time of very high inflation. And he

1092
00:57:56,800 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 2: said one or two things about inflation that have kind

1093
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 2: of rung out a time. One of them was inflation

1094
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 2: is the quiet thief was stealing our future. And then

1095
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 2: the one that stuck in my mind. I did look

1096
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 2: for this on video and YouTube, but I couldn't find

1097
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 2: any video of him saying it. He said, inflation is

1098
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 2: as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber,

1099
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:22,040
Speaker 2: and as deadly as a hitman. All of the violent

1100
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 2: crime imautry is so republican in the nineteen eighties. But

1101
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 2: that's a different story tonight. We're talking about inflation, how

1102
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:32,840
Speaker 2: to protect your investments during inflation, and particularly with all

1103
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,280
Speaker 2: of the changes matene around the inflation target. What it

1104
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:38,680
Speaker 2: means for you. Vincent Anthony Rajer's the CEO and co

1105
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 2: founder of a differential Capital A Sunder Notches, the chief

1106
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 2: investment officer at Marsi Asset Management GENS. Thanks so much

1107
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 2: for coming in, ready to appreciate it, and I really

1108
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 2: do appreciate the time. Someday, let me start with you.

1109
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 2: Perhaps the recent change to the inflation target, so it

1110
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 2: was three to six percent, which meant it could go

1111
00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:00,880
Speaker 2: quite high compared to other places. What it's three percent

1112
00:59:01,280 --> 00:59:03,959
Speaker 2: what does that kind of mean for interest rates over

1113
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 2: the longer term, It would presumably mean they're going to

1114
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 2: be lower, but it'll take a while. Yeah, thanks Stephen,

1115
00:59:09,280 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 2: and good evening to the listeners. So it is an

1116
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:15,880
Speaker 2: interesting one, and I think the concept that we start

1117
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:20,439
Speaker 2: with here is the setting of inflation expectations. And so

1118
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 2: maybe jumping straight into it, if you think about wage negotiations,

1119
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:27,960
Speaker 2: and now we at the high heart of those negotiations

1120
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 2: when you're talking about what are the increase is going

1121
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 2: to look like? So when inflation expectations get anchored around

1122
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,560
Speaker 2: a certain level, that's kind of where you're then starting

1123
00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 2: those conversations. What it then does, It then feeds into

1124
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:46,280
Speaker 2: what we see in terms of actual realized inflation in

1125
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 2: the economy. So if we do, indeed find that wage

1126
00:59:49,720 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 2: negotiations anchor or around those levels, then you'll find that

1127
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 2: maybe inflation sort of realizes at those levels, which means

1128
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:04,160
Speaker 2: perhaps the interest rates level becomes maybe more predictable, less

1129
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 2: there's probably less likely to be let's say, violent increases

1130
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 2: or swings as it were. But of course the risk

1131
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 2: is that to the extent that that inflation expectation is

1132
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 2: not anchored and set then you would have a reserve

1133
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:22,600
Speaker 2: bank that needs to hold interest rates higher in order

1134
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 2: to then contain inflation and stay true to this target

1135
01:00:27,000 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 2: that they've set, and therefore be you know, there's that

1136
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 2: word credibility of the central bank, and so move expectations

1137
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 2: back towards this target that they've set. Vincent, the credibility

1138
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 2: of the central bank is everything, as I think America

1139
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:46,880
Speaker 2: is about to be reminded. But you also have to

1140
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 2: meet the target, otherwise you lose your credibility. And when

1141
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:52,320
Speaker 2: you have such a broad target range of three to

1142
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 2: six percent, it's actually relatively easy to hit your target.

1143
01:00:55,880 --> 01:00:58,160
Speaker 2: They'll hardly ever out of the band. When you have

1144
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:00,720
Speaker 2: to hit three percent, it's much harder to hit the target,

1145
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:03,000
Speaker 2: not just because it's lower, but because it's a much

1146
01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 2: more specific figure.

1147
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:08,240
Speaker 13: Yeah, that's true, Stephen, And personally sometimes I just wonder

1148
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:09,840
Speaker 13: about the wisdom of that.

1149
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 2: To your point, it's very difficult too.

1150
01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 13: In South Africa's case, we have a lot of exogenous

1151
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 13: factors that drive our inflation. So it makes interest rates

1152
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 13: by themselves sometimes a blunt tool. And if you just

1153
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:28,000
Speaker 13: think about the oil price and how much that infects affects.

1154
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 2: Transport costs and things like that.

1155
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:34,640
Speaker 13: So you know, sometimes I'm not sure sure how effective

1156
01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 13: the Reserve Bank will be in certain instances, but that's

1157
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:42,520
Speaker 13: the route that they've taken, and certainly to asunders point,

1158
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 13: at least on the demand side of inflation or the

1159
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 13: expectation side, hopefully that dampens that. But there's the money

1160
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:54,439
Speaker 13: supply side, which is yeah, that's that's the tricky part.

1161
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:55,959
Speaker 13: That's a tricky beast to tame.

1162
01:01:56,840 --> 01:02:00,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I would have phone in now one double

1163
01:02:00,600 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 2: A three h seven two as the Reserve Bank governor.

1164
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 2: Wouldn't he say, remember what it was like before two thousand,

1165
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 2: Remember what it was like before that inflation target was

1166
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:12,080
Speaker 2: brought in and before we did it in this way,

1167
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,560
Speaker 2: I mean, Vincent, wouldn't he remind us of of how

1168
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:17,440
Speaker 2: high inflation and interest rates were? Then?

1169
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 13: Sure, and you would be spot on, and certainly there's

1170
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:25,920
Speaker 13: no argument against the policy. I think sometimes one should

1171
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 13: also realize that policy itself has limits.

1172
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I guess that's the only point that I'm

1173
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:30,320
Speaker 2: trying to make.

1174
01:02:30,880 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 13: When you try and tie it down to such a

1175
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:35,520
Speaker 13: hard and fast target like three percent, you know, you

1176
01:02:35,880 --> 01:02:40,280
Speaker 13: have to be wary that you could you're under risk

1177
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:44,520
Speaker 13: of your your credibility lapsing asunder.

1178
01:02:44,600 --> 01:02:47,840
Speaker 2: There's I hadn't heard this phrase before. A hurdle rate

1179
01:02:48,560 --> 01:02:50,360
Speaker 2: for people who are trying to grow your wealth in

1180
01:02:50,440 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 2: real terms, so you're obviously trying to make yourself richer.

1181
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:55,000
Speaker 2: What's the hurdle rate?

1182
01:02:55,720 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 14: So if I've got andro drand well, let's say billion rate,

1183
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:02,360
Speaker 14: let's be init So I've got a billion rand and

1184
01:03:02,360 --> 01:03:05,840
Speaker 14: I'm investing that on behalf of somebody who wants to

1185
01:03:06,240 --> 01:03:11,800
Speaker 14: retire in twenty years time, fifty years time. Now, the inflation.

1186
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 14: Inflation is your biggest enemy in that sense, because with

1187
01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:20,640
Speaker 14: every passing year, that billion rand left untouched and without

1188
01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:24,160
Speaker 14: growing ahead of inflation, loses its purchasing power, which means

1189
01:03:24,560 --> 01:03:27,160
Speaker 14: that that pension or that person when they get to pension,

1190
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 14: the purchasing power of their money is gone. So as

1191
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:34,000
Speaker 14: an investor then and investing on behalf of that particular client,

1192
01:03:34,400 --> 01:03:36,840
Speaker 14: you would then say that there's a hurdle that I

1193
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:41,400
Speaker 14: need to meet, above which I'm then achieving a real return.

1194
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 2: So that hurdle would then be whatever that inflation level is.

1195
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:48,600
Speaker 14: Because if I've got that billion rand and I needed

1196
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:52,440
Speaker 14: to beat inflation, if I'm just beating inflation or not. Actually,

1197
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:54,920
Speaker 14: then I'm not meeting the very basic in terms of

1198
01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:58,240
Speaker 14: being able to keep the purchasing power of the money

1199
01:03:58,480 --> 01:04:02,360
Speaker 14: of that particular individual with reference to the erosion of inflation.

1200
01:04:03,000 --> 01:04:06,880
Speaker 2: Okay, so Vincent, if inflation comes down, this would mean

1201
01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:10,560
Speaker 2: the hurdle rate is lower. Yeah, the hurdle rate is lower.

1202
01:04:11,040 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 2: It should, in theory be in theory be easier to achieve,

1203
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:19,120
Speaker 2: at least in nominal terms. So in nominal terms, as.

1204
01:04:19,040 --> 01:04:22,440
Speaker 13: In it's easier to beat three percent than it is

1205
01:04:22,480 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 13: to be three to six percent. But there's an interesting

1206
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 13: dynamic and that as inflation itself comes down, the growth

1207
01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:32,240
Speaker 13: in asset prices also.

1208
01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:36,320
Speaker 2: Tends to come down. So you know, it's what investment

1209
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:37,560
Speaker 2: managers often focus on.

1210
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:39,440
Speaker 13: Those that are focused on the hurdle rate that you

1211
01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:41,760
Speaker 13: speak of is the what we call the real rate,

1212
01:04:42,240 --> 01:04:46,680
Speaker 13: which is the rate above inflation. That's essentially what you

1213
01:04:46,680 --> 01:04:49,720
Speaker 13: want to ensure, so you want to When investors say

1214
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:52,880
Speaker 13: in real terms, I want to achieve two to three percent,

1215
01:04:52,920 --> 01:04:56,120
Speaker 13: it's saying whatever the inflation rate is, I'd like to

1216
01:04:56,160 --> 01:04:59,280
Speaker 13: achieve two to three percent more than that, And that's

1217
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:01,440
Speaker 13: generally where the focus is.

1218
01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:05,160
Speaker 2: Why do asset prices come down when inflation goes down?

1219
01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:08,400
Speaker 13: Okay, So if we take the equity market, which is

1220
01:05:08,440 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 13: probably the most recognizable form of that most people would

1221
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:16,800
Speaker 13: be aware of, at the heart of what drives an

1222
01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 13: equity price or its increase is the rate at which

1223
01:05:20,520 --> 01:05:23,840
Speaker 13: its profits increase, and the primary driver of that is

1224
01:05:23,880 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 13: its own revenue. So if a system has very high inflation,

1225
01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:30,760
Speaker 13: like a couple of years ago where Turkey had inflation

1226
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 13: of massive numbers and their stock market went up like

1227
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:37,960
Speaker 13: a bullet, because what happens is the revenue of those

1228
01:05:38,040 --> 01:05:41,640
Speaker 13: underlying companies is also going up very quickly, probably faster

1229
01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:45,040
Speaker 13: than their cost, and then you have equity markets exploding.

1230
01:05:45,880 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 13: What you can have on the other side is when

1231
01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:51,120
Speaker 13: inflation gets way too low, as you can see now

1232
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:54,520
Speaker 13: as what's happened in China, where you actually have deflation,

1233
01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:58,240
Speaker 13: it's very difficult to grow your revenue, and so that

1234
01:05:58,320 --> 01:06:01,640
Speaker 13: means that asset prices themselves grow at a slower pace.

1235
01:06:02,040 --> 01:06:05,160
Speaker 2: Okay, that makes sense to me now asunder, So inflation

1236
01:06:05,680 --> 01:06:08,400
Speaker 2: across last year was three point two percent, the lowest

1237
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:10,720
Speaker 2: and what was it twenty years I think people were

1238
01:06:11,000 --> 01:06:12,880
Speaker 2: lots of patting on the back and all the rest.

1239
01:06:13,200 --> 01:06:16,280
Speaker 2: It was three point six percent in December. We expect

1240
01:06:16,760 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 2: a new figure in about two and a half two

1241
01:06:19,080 --> 01:06:23,560
Speaker 2: weeks time. There's specific things that keep inflation up. Now.

1242
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:26,600
Speaker 2: I'm going to start off with electricity going to move

1243
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:30,080
Speaker 2: to a beef prices and that's that's foot and mouth disease.

1244
01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:31,840
Speaker 2: So in a year that should be eased out, but

1245
01:06:31,880 --> 01:06:34,440
Speaker 2: electricity prices will probably still be with us. I mean,

1246
01:06:34,440 --> 01:06:36,920
Speaker 2: what other things are keeping inflation up at the moment? Coffee?

1247
01:06:38,120 --> 01:06:38,440
Speaker 9: Would you?

1248
01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:39,200
Speaker 2: Would you imagine?

1249
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 14: I think it goes back also to what Evince was

1250
01:06:42,920 --> 01:06:47,720
Speaker 14: saying around exogenous factors. So we've been fortunate with oil,

1251
01:06:47,920 --> 01:06:50,840
Speaker 14: so that's gone in our favor because that's been a

1252
01:06:50,880 --> 01:06:53,160
Speaker 14: bit subdued as well as the strength of the end.

1253
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:56,080
Speaker 14: But also I think on the upside or on the

1254
01:06:56,160 --> 01:06:59,800
Speaker 14: on the higher or increasing or higher inflation. Higher side

1255
01:06:59,880 --> 01:07:05,440
Speaker 14: is municipal prices, so that's rates and Texas. You know

1256
01:07:05,480 --> 01:07:10,160
Speaker 14: you mentioned electricity. Water is another issue that's coming up now,

1257
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:12,240
Speaker 14: and I think that's why they also big outcry in

1258
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 14: the country around infrastructure and making sure we reduce those losses.

1259
01:07:17,320 --> 01:07:19,479
Speaker 14: I think, as you say, you know, we we also

1260
01:07:19,560 --> 01:07:23,200
Speaker 14: at the whim sometimes off commodity prices as they move

1261
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:27,520
Speaker 14: up and down, so soft commodities, maze, wheat and these

1262
01:07:27,560 --> 01:07:30,400
Speaker 14: types of things in terms of those prices as well,

1263
01:07:31,360 --> 01:07:31,959
Speaker 14: I think some.

1264
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:33,760
Speaker 2: Of the the the.

1265
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:36,280
Speaker 14: In the baskets, as you mentioned, you know, food transports

1266
01:07:36,280 --> 01:07:39,040
Speaker 14: has been an issue in the past, less so now

1267
01:07:39,080 --> 01:07:42,280
Speaker 14: I think it's it's a bit subdued given what's happened

1268
01:07:42,320 --> 01:07:45,360
Speaker 14: with with with oil. So I'd say those are probably

1269
01:07:45,400 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 14: some of the main ones. And I think, again, just

1270
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:51,200
Speaker 14: to emphasize Vince's point, some of these factors are actually

1271
01:07:51,240 --> 01:07:54,360
Speaker 14: a little bit out of control, and that's that's really

1272
01:07:54,360 --> 01:07:57,800
Speaker 14: why I think, you know, sentiments around the target being

1273
01:07:57,880 --> 01:08:01,320
Speaker 14: quite low and you know, maybe posing somewhat of a

1274
01:08:01,400 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 14: challenge in terms of maintaining its given exog aspectors.

1275
01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 2: Seven two seven two one seven o two Your questions

1276
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:11,960
Speaker 2: tonight for Investments School, we're talking about inflation and how

1277
01:08:11,960 --> 01:08:14,760
Speaker 2: to beat at Vincent Anthony Raja, CEO and co founder

1278
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:18,439
Speaker 2: at Differential Capital, asunder Notchez, chief investment officer at Marsi

1279
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:20,960
Speaker 2: Acid Management. It's twelve minutes now to eight.

1280
01:08:22,800 --> 01:08:25,400
Speaker 10: The Money Show Step Encroachers is brought to you by

1281
01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:30,560
Speaker 10: Absolve Corporate and investment banking, balancing economic growth with ecosystems.

1282
01:08:30,880 --> 01:08:36,719
Speaker 2: That's how they've invested. In your story The Money Show

1283
01:08:37,240 --> 01:08:41,519
Speaker 2: Investment School ten minutes to the time, we're speaking to

1284
01:08:41,720 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 2: Vincent Anthony Raja, co and co founder at Differential Capital

1285
01:08:45,200 --> 01:08:47,920
Speaker 2: as under not a chief investment officer at Marsi Acid Management.

1286
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:52,920
Speaker 2: We're talking about inflation as under the the JCU all

1287
01:08:52,960 --> 01:08:55,479
Speaker 2: share last year, everyone was talking about how well it did.

1288
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:59,519
Speaker 2: Remember in September thirty thirty percent ended up thirty five percent,

1289
01:09:00,240 --> 01:09:04,080
Speaker 2: mainly because of gold. What kind of issues, what kind

1290
01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:08,439
Speaker 2: of opportunities now offer sort of inflation beating value? You're

1291
01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:11,440
Speaker 2: looking for something that you know is going to appreciate

1292
01:09:11,479 --> 01:09:15,400
Speaker 2: it better than three percent, but rarely better than five percent.

1293
01:09:15,720 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 14: Correct, And I think you know it's it's a very

1294
01:09:19,240 --> 01:09:21,880
Speaker 14: very good point around the performance of the JC because

1295
01:09:21,880 --> 01:09:24,360
Speaker 14: it always you know, you had gold and the and

1296
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:27,920
Speaker 14: the other precious metals PGMs, platinum group medals also doing

1297
01:09:28,000 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 14: quite well.

1298
01:09:29,240 --> 01:09:29,439
Speaker 9: You know.

1299
01:09:29,560 --> 01:09:33,680
Speaker 14: Generally, though to your question, you'd be looking for assets

1300
01:09:33,920 --> 01:09:38,560
Speaker 14: and companies that have got the ability to pass price increases.

1301
01:09:39,080 --> 01:09:42,600
Speaker 14: So so you know, put differently, if I sell a

1302
01:09:42,600 --> 01:09:45,880
Speaker 14: product and that product is in demand for whatever reason,

1303
01:09:45,880 --> 01:09:48,519
Speaker 14: and you know, it's a really good product, and I'm

1304
01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:52,519
Speaker 14: therefore able to push through the price increase that I desire.

1305
01:09:52,640 --> 01:09:55,240
Speaker 14: So I can say, look, I you know, I want

1306
01:09:55,240 --> 01:09:58,360
Speaker 14: to push through a ten percent price increase, and because

1307
01:09:58,400 --> 01:10:01,920
Speaker 14: of the the cacteristics of that product, I'm able to

1308
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:04,840
Speaker 14: do that. So if I if I look at it,

1309
01:10:04,840 --> 01:10:07,880
Speaker 14: then from that sort of basic economics, you're looking for

1310
01:10:07,920 --> 01:10:10,920
Speaker 14: those companies that if we're talking equities, the companies have

1311
01:10:10,960 --> 01:10:13,120
Speaker 14: got the ability to do that because they then have

1312
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:16,679
Speaker 14: the ability to grow ahead of inflation and ahead of peers.

1313
01:10:17,040 --> 01:10:19,320
Speaker 14: I think if you look more broadly in other asset classes,

1314
01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:23,080
Speaker 14: you know, bond market did very very well as well,

1315
01:10:23,600 --> 01:10:25,839
Speaker 14: and I mean you could argue on a risk adjusted

1316
01:10:25,880 --> 01:10:29,920
Speaker 14: basis it's probably done, you know, quite comparatively to to equities,

1317
01:10:30,360 --> 01:10:33,160
Speaker 14: if not better. But even there so you you then

1318
01:10:33,400 --> 01:10:36,599
Speaker 14: evaluate and say, look, if I'm getting you know, eight

1319
01:10:37,640 --> 01:10:40,080
Speaker 14: eight eight and a half percent from from in the

1320
01:10:40,120 --> 01:10:43,800
Speaker 14: bond markets as eels, even if have come down, it's

1321
01:10:43,840 --> 01:10:47,000
Speaker 14: not too bad relative to three percent in terms of

1322
01:10:47,000 --> 01:10:49,519
Speaker 14: so I think you've got a rail rate that's quite

1323
01:10:49,640 --> 01:10:52,519
Speaker 14: attractive in that environment. So so I think those are

1324
01:10:52,560 --> 01:10:54,800
Speaker 14: the characteristics of assets that you'd be looking at and

1325
01:10:55,120 --> 01:10:58,520
Speaker 14: the kind of things that can then exhibit those characteristics

1326
01:10:58,520 --> 01:11:01,479
Speaker 14: in terms of beating inflation consistently vincent.

1327
01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:03,400
Speaker 2: There was a time when you would say, well, invest

1328
01:11:03,439 --> 01:11:08,920
Speaker 2: in property, but I did in Joeburg. What options are there?

1329
01:11:09,280 --> 01:11:11,599
Speaker 2: Just sort of you know, I mean, I mean property

1330
01:11:11,680 --> 01:11:12,479
Speaker 2: must be an option.

1331
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:19,559
Speaker 13: Yeah, property is definitely an option. And you know, actually

1332
01:11:19,560 --> 01:11:22,559
Speaker 13: looking around if you drive into Santin now, I don't

1333
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:26,240
Speaker 13: think you see much cranes building, any offices. And I

1334
01:11:26,240 --> 01:11:29,920
Speaker 13: looked at the interesting stat not too long ago showing

1335
01:11:29,960 --> 01:11:34,679
Speaker 13: the vacancy rates within the office sector in joe Burg

1336
01:11:34,720 --> 01:11:37,200
Speaker 13: and surrounds, and it's dropping quickly for a number of reasons,

1337
01:11:37,200 --> 01:11:41,200
Speaker 13: many of the older officers being converted to residential. There

1338
01:11:41,240 --> 01:11:44,880
Speaker 13: are certain times where there's a supply factor that also

1339
01:11:44,920 --> 01:11:47,080
Speaker 13: comes into your favor. So all of a sudden, when

1340
01:11:47,080 --> 01:11:50,360
Speaker 13: there's not enough office space, and even when office space

1341
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:54,200
Speaker 13: vacancies are low, you know, it doesn't mean all companies

1342
01:11:54,240 --> 01:11:56,080
Speaker 13: can just fit into that space. You know, it might

1343
01:11:56,120 --> 01:12:00,479
Speaker 13: be just uncomfortable enough that it actually allows the existing landlords.

1344
01:12:00,080 --> 01:12:03,400
Speaker 2: Start pushing up their prices. And I suspect that's where

1345
01:12:03,439 --> 01:12:04,120
Speaker 2: we could be.

1346
01:12:05,479 --> 01:12:09,160
Speaker 13: So yeah, typically through through you know, over long periods

1347
01:12:09,200 --> 01:12:12,040
Speaker 13: of time, real estate, you know, if you look at

1348
01:12:12,040 --> 01:12:15,559
Speaker 13: the name real estate, you know, real real implies that

1349
01:12:15,600 --> 01:12:19,880
Speaker 13: it protects you against inflation. It certainly South African real

1350
01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:22,320
Speaker 13: estate has been a good inflation edge.

1351
01:12:22,960 --> 01:12:26,839
Speaker 2: The question though, to ask is if.

1352
01:12:26,640 --> 01:12:33,599
Speaker 13: Inflation is being managed much much lower, you know, inflation

1353
01:12:33,960 --> 01:12:36,439
Speaker 13: protection is probably not as big a risk as it

1354
01:12:36,560 --> 01:12:39,840
Speaker 13: was when inflation was higher and volatile. So it can

1355
01:12:40,000 --> 01:12:43,639
Speaker 13: then completely change the dynamics of the market. Because another

1356
01:12:43,680 --> 01:12:46,519
Speaker 13: impact of low and stable interest rates and let's let's

1357
01:12:46,600 --> 01:12:50,719
Speaker 13: really hope that the governor gets this right, what tends

1358
01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:55,120
Speaker 13: to happen is borrowing rates and rates of banks charge

1359
01:12:55,240 --> 01:12:58,040
Speaker 13: forget about what the reserve bank charges. The rest of

1360
01:12:58,080 --> 01:13:01,960
Speaker 13: that also goes down because investors themselves expect lower and

1361
01:13:01,960 --> 01:13:03,479
Speaker 13: lower returns because they don't.

1362
01:13:03,280 --> 01:13:05,519
Speaker 2: Need that inflation protection.

1363
01:13:06,240 --> 01:13:08,439
Speaker 13: Long story short, what happens is companies that are really

1364
01:13:08,439 --> 01:13:12,240
Speaker 13: good at taking capital, deploying it and generating excess returns

1365
01:13:12,320 --> 01:13:15,879
Speaker 13: let's call it the growth stocks can become very interesting

1366
01:13:15,920 --> 01:13:18,640
Speaker 13: places to invest, you know, so companies that are very

1367
01:13:18,640 --> 01:13:21,240
Speaker 13: good at capital allocation. So that's another thing to look at.

1368
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:24,160
Speaker 13: If your view is that inflation is going to be

1369
01:13:24,200 --> 01:13:27,599
Speaker 13: lower and contained. That might not be the case though,

1370
01:13:27,600 --> 01:13:31,280
Speaker 13: but yeah, if that is your view, then there might

1371
01:13:31,280 --> 01:13:33,800
Speaker 13: be another set of assets that you don't typically look at,

1372
01:13:33,880 --> 01:13:35,200
Speaker 13: which you could you could look at.

1373
01:13:35,720 --> 01:13:37,760
Speaker 2: So I mean Sunda, I mean you would think then

1374
01:13:38,840 --> 01:13:41,479
Speaker 2: Willworths has I mean I sometimes think Willworths has us

1375
01:13:41,479 --> 01:13:43,920
Speaker 2: all captive and we never We're never going to get

1376
01:13:43,960 --> 01:13:48,200
Speaker 2: away from them. I shop right too. Actually, would retailers

1377
01:13:48,200 --> 01:13:50,960
Speaker 2: be a place where you know, you might get inflation

1378
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:53,840
Speaker 2: beating returns no matter what the inflation rate is? Okay,

1379
01:13:53,880 --> 01:13:54,920
Speaker 2: So that's an interesting one.

1380
01:13:54,960 --> 01:13:59,559
Speaker 14: So you know inflation higher inflation is actually good for

1381
01:13:59,600 --> 01:14:05,240
Speaker 14: retailers because when you think about increasing your your prices

1382
01:14:05,280 --> 01:14:09,120
Speaker 14: every year, if the inflation number is higher, your revenue number,

1383
01:14:09,360 --> 01:14:13,320
Speaker 14: your actual random amount that you're making crows. So let's

1384
01:14:13,360 --> 01:14:16,080
Speaker 14: just say I was selling a ton of coup bake

1385
01:14:16,160 --> 01:14:19,840
Speaker 14: beans or no name or whatever for X amount. I'm

1386
01:14:19,880 --> 01:14:21,439
Speaker 14: sad to say I don't actually know what the price

1387
01:14:21,479 --> 01:14:23,519
Speaker 14: is of coup bake beans, but let's just say X.

1388
01:14:24,240 --> 01:14:27,160
Speaker 14: Then I can increase that price by ten percent. So

1389
01:14:27,200 --> 01:14:30,360
Speaker 14: now it's one point one x. But actually my costs

1390
01:14:31,360 --> 01:14:34,120
Speaker 14: my shop, the people that I pay, that cost maybe

1391
01:14:34,160 --> 01:14:36,400
Speaker 14: goes up by five percent, So all of a sudden,

1392
01:14:36,439 --> 01:14:41,960
Speaker 14: I'm actually making more profit. So in declining inflation, that

1393
01:14:42,080 --> 01:14:45,200
Speaker 14: does present a problem for retailers because all of a sudden,

1394
01:14:45,280 --> 01:14:47,920
Speaker 14: you know, you can't as a shoprite, for instance, keep

1395
01:14:48,320 --> 01:14:51,559
Speaker 14: that higher inflation when everybody else is going lower, because

1396
01:14:51,560 --> 01:14:53,680
Speaker 14: then all the shoppers are going to go elsewhere, so

1397
01:14:53,720 --> 01:14:56,200
Speaker 14: you need to be competitive. But of course, in fact

1398
01:14:56,240 --> 01:14:58,519
Speaker 14: it was quite interesting because the retailers have just come

1399
01:14:58,560 --> 01:14:59,680
Speaker 14: out with some updates.

1400
01:15:00,360 --> 01:15:03,040
Speaker 2: In one words, if I recall was.

1401
01:15:03,040 --> 01:15:06,160
Speaker 14: Able to pass some inflation relative to the other retailers,

1402
01:15:06,240 --> 01:15:08,520
Speaker 14: so you know your shop rights boxes.

1403
01:15:09,080 --> 01:15:12,920
Speaker 2: Boxer was was was one percent deflationary for over the

1404
01:15:12,920 --> 01:15:14,200
Speaker 2: course of last Yeah, yeah.

1405
01:15:14,080 --> 01:15:16,920
Speaker 14: Now I just contrast that with a Willi's, which I

1406
01:15:16,920 --> 01:15:19,400
Speaker 14: think was around four five percent. You know, So to

1407
01:15:19,439 --> 01:15:21,960
Speaker 14: your point, and maybe to the point earlier, if you've

1408
01:15:22,000 --> 01:15:24,720
Speaker 14: got price in power in terms of the product, you

1409
01:15:24,760 --> 01:15:27,040
Speaker 14: then have some lever to pull as far as your

1410
01:15:27,080 --> 01:15:28,240
Speaker 14: ability to beat inflation.

1411
01:15:28,760 --> 01:15:31,280
Speaker 2: We've literally got two minutes left. And I mean different

1412
01:15:31,360 --> 01:15:34,280
Speaker 2: parts of the economy get impacted by different by change,

1413
01:15:34,400 --> 01:15:36,439
Speaker 2: by by lower interest rates in very different ways.

1414
01:15:36,439 --> 01:15:39,880
Speaker 13: Obviously, Yeah, so so definitely, and maybe a sector we

1415
01:15:39,880 --> 01:15:42,200
Speaker 13: haven't spoken about too much today is the banking sector.

1416
01:15:42,840 --> 01:15:47,879
Speaker 13: So banks sit on lots of let's call it equity

1417
01:15:47,960 --> 01:15:51,800
Speaker 13: and cash, and when interest rates become low and drop,

1418
01:15:52,439 --> 01:15:56,160
Speaker 13: that impacts them negatively and hopefully sort of starts to

1419
01:15:56,160 --> 01:15:58,000
Speaker 13: trigger them to lend more to try and make up

1420
01:15:58,000 --> 01:16:01,880
Speaker 13: for that. So that's an area to watch in that,

1421
01:16:02,360 --> 01:16:04,360
Speaker 13: you know, let's call it banking stocks might have a

1422
01:16:04,360 --> 01:16:07,519
Speaker 13: bit of a headwind, but there are other reasons why

1423
01:16:07,560 --> 01:16:10,120
Speaker 13: I think, you know, there'll be good investments, but I

1424
01:16:10,160 --> 01:16:13,160
Speaker 13: think this is called the direct impact of inflation is

1425
01:16:13,680 --> 01:16:16,280
Speaker 13: going to hurt them. Maybe another a quick sector to

1426
01:16:16,439 --> 01:16:19,519
Speaker 13: just focus on. I know you mentioned gold, but generally

1427
01:16:19,600 --> 01:16:25,240
Speaker 13: resources stocks they are the let's call it engines of inflation.

1428
01:16:25,960 --> 01:16:29,960
Speaker 13: And you know, you can find that in certain commodities

1429
01:16:30,000 --> 01:16:32,559
Speaker 13: when inflation does get high and volatile, they do protect

1430
01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:36,760
Speaker 13: you against it. But again in environments where inflation is contained,

1431
01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:39,960
Speaker 13: then you've got to look at the metal specific demands,

1432
01:16:39,960 --> 01:16:43,120
Speaker 13: which is which is different. So those are maybe two

1433
01:16:43,200 --> 01:16:47,479
Speaker 13: extremely different sectors, but just something to watch. When inflation

1434
01:16:47,560 --> 01:16:50,080
Speaker 13: gets as low as it can get right.

1435
01:16:49,960 --> 01:16:53,839
Speaker 2: Now thirty seconds at Sunday, is it easier or harder

1436
01:16:53,880 --> 01:16:56,240
Speaker 2: to invest in a time of lower inflation? If you've

1437
01:16:56,240 --> 01:16:59,040
Speaker 2: got lower inflation but one target just three percent, it

1438
01:16:59,080 --> 01:17:01,440
Speaker 2: should be more stable all over the longer term.

1439
01:17:01,840 --> 01:17:04,360
Speaker 14: Theoretically it should be just because you know the meths

1440
01:17:04,560 --> 01:17:07,160
Speaker 14: the number is lower, I guess to some of the

1441
01:17:07,160 --> 01:17:12,600
Speaker 14: things I've spoken about here. It's then identifying those investments

1442
01:17:12,680 --> 01:17:16,400
Speaker 14: company sectors that have got the ability to sort of

1443
01:17:16,439 --> 01:17:17,439
Speaker 14: beat inflation.

1444
01:17:17,800 --> 01:17:19,120
Speaker 2: And I think, as Vinces said.

1445
01:17:19,160 --> 01:17:22,320
Speaker 14: You know you, the low inflation is not good for

1446
01:17:22,400 --> 01:17:24,160
Speaker 14: every not not for everybody, So you do need to

1447
01:17:24,160 --> 01:17:28,720
Speaker 14: be selective. So I'd say maybe easier in theory, but

1448
01:17:29,479 --> 01:17:31,840
Speaker 14: just shoppens the mind in terms of selecting the right things.

1449
01:17:32,400 --> 01:17:37,760
Speaker 2: So why we pay you not thank you? See Chief

1450
01:17:37,800 --> 01:17:41,160
Speaker 2: investment Officer at Marsi Asset Management, Vincent Anthony Rajas here

1451
01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:44,400
Speaker 2: and co found a differential capital on investment school.

1452
01:17:46,520 --> 01:17:48,880
Speaker 10: The money show is still encouragers. Is brought to you

1453
01:17:48,960 --> 01:17:54,280
Speaker 10: by Absolve Corporate and Investment Banking, balancing economic growth with ecosystems.

1454
01:17:54,600 --> 01:17:57,240
Speaker 10: That's how they've invested in your story.

1455
01:17:59,280 --> 01:18:03,240
Speaker 2: Well, no inflation beating returns in the US tonight that

1456
01:18:03,320 --> 01:18:06,200
Speaker 2: our Jones is down point sixty three, the Nasdaq is

1457
01:18:06,240 --> 01:18:08,280
Speaker 2: down point sixty seven, and the S and P five

1458
01:18:08,360 --> 01:18:12,280
Speaker 2: hundred is down point sixty two. Tonight's still concerns around software,

1459
01:18:12,280 --> 01:18:15,880
Speaker 2: is still concerns around spending on AI as well, and

1460
01:18:15,920 --> 01:18:19,040
Speaker 2: all of that of course having plenty of impact. I

1461
01:18:19,040 --> 01:18:21,360
Speaker 2: don't forget. We'll be back with you tomorrow the Friday

1462
01:18:21,520 --> 01:18:23,720
Speaker 2: edition of The Money Show. Lots to look forward to,

1463
01:18:23,800 --> 01:18:25,799
Speaker 2: and don't forget the Cricket World Cup, the T twenty

1464
01:18:25,800 --> 01:18:28,920
Speaker 2: World Cup starting on Sunday as well. We're back tomorrow,

1465
01:18:28,960 --> 01:18:29,840
Speaker 2: good evening at eight o'clock