1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:03,040 Speaker 1: The dialogue with Clement man Tela. 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 2: It's not just another roundtable discussion. 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,039 Speaker 1: Let's walk the talk on saven O two. 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 3: So on our Thursday dialogue this morning, we are discussing 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 3: how the Democratic Alliance's leadership contest this weekend is likely 6 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:24,479 Speaker 3: to shape its political future. As you know, the second 7 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 3: largest political party, the DA, is heading into an all 8 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 3: important federal congress this weekend in Johannesbeck, and this is 9 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 3: under mounting pressure inside and outside the party. The party's 10 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,279 Speaker 3: current leader, John Stin Haysen has already indicated that he 11 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 3: will not stand for re election, opening the door to 12 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 3: a contested leadership race at a critical moment for this organization. 13 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 3: So this is a congress that comes in the middle 14 00:00:56,000 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 3: of tensions among some senior national leaders, raising questions about 15 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 3: unity and the strategic direction ahead of a crucial local 16 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 3: government election circle, and with the DA seeking to grow 17 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 3: beyond its traditional support base, the leadership transition will be 18 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 3: closely watched as actually a test for its ability to 19 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 3: broaden its national appeal. Remember the day one twenty two 20 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 3: percent of the vote in the last national elections in 21 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. Internal polling suggests that support may have 22 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 3: risen to around thirty percent, but the outcome of this 23 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 3: weekend's congress will be quite decisive in shaping whether the 24 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 3: DA can consolidate and expand this support in the lead 25 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 3: up to the local elections. So I would like to 26 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 3: know what you think, right, how critical do you think 27 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 3: this weekend is? This congress is for the Democratic Alliance? 28 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 3: John Stein Haysen won't be standing for election. Jordan hill Lewis, 29 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 3: the mayor of k Town, is really the one expected 30 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 3: to be voted leader of the party. Helen Zillah is 31 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 3: not going to be contesting any positions. She's been focusing 32 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 3: a lot on the mayoral candidature. So what do you 33 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 3: How critical do you think this is going to be 34 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 3: and how do you think the DA can broaden its 35 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 3: appeal among South Africa's largest voting market, that's the black population, 36 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 3: because without that support, really the party can never take 37 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 3: charge of government as through a majority vote. 38 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 2: Right, what are you? What do you think? 39 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 4: Oh? 40 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 3: One one eight eight seven O two is the number two? 41 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 3: Die You can share your thoughts with us on what's 42 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 3: up on seven two seven two one seven two. Will 43 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 3: start this conversation with Tony Leon, who is a former 44 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 3: leader of the Democratic Alliance. And then later on I'm 45 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 3: going to play your what'sapp voice notes, take your calls, 46 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 3: and then bring in some analysts after eleven thirty to 47 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 3: share their thoughts with us. Tony Million joining us now 48 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 3: on the line. Thank you so much for making time 49 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 3: for us, Tony, Good morning. 50 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 5: Good morning, lem and thank you for inviting me. 51 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 3: How critical do you think this congress is? Is this 52 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 3: a moment of renewal for South Africa's largest opposition party, 53 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 3: and if so, what kind of renewal you think? 54 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 5: Yes, well, this congress is going to be the passing 55 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:27,239 Speaker 5: of the baton. I mean when Jordan will be elected. 56 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 5: I think there are two horses, but it is essentially 57 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 5: a one horse race given how well known he is, 58 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 5: and with all respect I don't know his opponent, but 59 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 5: he's rather obscure. So I think you they bet that 60 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 5: Jordan will emerge on Sunday as the leader. So in 61 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 5: one sense, it's it's it's a healthy development. I mean, 62 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 5: the DA has been going for tween six years and 63 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 5: it's about to choose it's this leader. So it's not 64 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 5: a one person culture. It's a multi generational project. And 65 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 5: I say this is the founding leader. I think it's 66 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 5: very good. Not there'll be a change of leadership, which 67 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 5: always is in itself a renewal project, but that is 68 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 5: a generational change because Jordan is not yet forty. I 69 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 5: was thirty seven when I took over, but those were 70 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 5: in very different circumstances back in May nineteen ninety four 71 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:31,279 Speaker 5: to the ones the party confronts and has the opportunity 72 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 5: to deal with now, and the next chairperson the federal 73 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 5: executive will which is the other important position. The others 74 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 5: are more in the realm of beauty and popularity. Contest 75 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 5: doesn't really count for much. But the leader and the 76 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 5: headix chair of the two drivers of the party going forward, 77 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 5: and both of them are going to be from a 78 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,479 Speaker 5: new generation, and I think in and of itself, that's 79 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 5: a healthy and positive development. 80 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. 81 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 3: What kind of leadership do you think is is required 82 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 3: to take the party forward right now? I mentioned earlier 83 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 3: that the DA probably wants to broaden its appeal and 84 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 3: if you want to do that, you probably want to 85 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,239 Speaker 3: look at South Africa's largest voting market. Do you think 86 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 3: that it's still sort of a priority for the Democratic Alliance? 87 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 3: They still see themselves one day winning, you know, the 88 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 3: majority of support or is there acceptance around Well, maybe 89 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 3: this is sort of our ceiling and we need to 90 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,919 Speaker 3: now start finding creative ways to still be in government, 91 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 3: but with the partnership of other political parties. And what 92 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 3: kind of leadership do you think is needed for this 93 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 3: era of the Democratic Alliance that will decide really what 94 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 3: the future of this organization will be. 95 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 5: Well, speaking from the outside with some long time inside 96 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 5: experience in my mind back the past, but in my 97 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 5: farewell note, I used to publish a week letter called 98 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 5: South Africa Today in two thousand and seven when I 99 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 5: stood down actually the same place Gallagher status. It happens 100 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 5: that this leadership transitions happening, I said, Leading a political 101 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 5: party is rather like riding a bicycle uphill. Stop pedling 102 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 5: and you fall off. So whoever the leader is, even 103 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 5: in very different circumstances in twenty twenty six, you've got 104 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 5: to keep peddling uphill. And I think it's a combination 105 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 5: of some of the aspects that you mentioned in your question, Clement, 106 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 5: So you absolutely need to consolidate what you've got, but 107 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 5: you've got to keep practicing what I used to call 108 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 5: the politics of addition, not the politics of division, and 109 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 5: as you say, it is kind of maxed out more 110 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 5: or less, not entirely, and on its current base because 111 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 5: there are some contenders who want to eat at lunch. 112 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 5: You know, in the colored voting market, you've got Katon McKenzie. 113 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 5: In the white voting market, you've got the Freedom Front plus. 114 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 5: So they're not uncontested in their existing base, but they 115 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 5: largely have a monopoly on the minority vote in South Africa. 116 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 5: But you know, as you say, the quest it's been 117 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 5: a blood to search for the holy grail without being 118 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 5: here religious has been you know, how does the DA 119 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 5: impact and imprint itself where most of the voters are 120 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 5: and that, as you say, it's among black South Africans 121 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 5: And a number of strategies have been tribes. None of 122 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 5: them have been obviously successful. And you could say that 123 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 5: the next leader Jordan will have to confront that challenge. 124 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 5: On the other hand, that challenge wealth might be self 125 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 5: fulfilling and the sense that we are looking at an 126 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 5: A and C which has lost its status in the country. 127 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 5: And once again, if you go back in time through 128 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 5: nineteen ninety four when I took over the African National Congress, 129 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 5: bestrode South Africa, Art colosses it had moral authority and 130 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 5: actual dominance and in their monopoly of political legitimacy. So 131 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 5: in those days in my time, you either had to 132 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 5: differentiate yourself, which are succeeded in doing with the DP 133 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 5: and then the DA, or you disappeared. Well, the DA 134 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 5: has differentiated itself from the A and C now founds 135 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 5: itself in the rather strange position of not disappearing but 136 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 5: cooperating with government. That has had an interesting effect. And 137 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 5: I yeah, I simply quote from the latest polls, Clement. 138 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 5: It seems to me that simply being in government, whether 139 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 5: the DA is being successful or unsuccessful, differentiates rough undifferentiated 140 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 5: from the. 141 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 6: A and C. 142 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 5: It seems to me that the das had an uptick 143 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 5: in voter support. You know that it's and we saw 144 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 5: this in recent byelects since there was one in Choria 145 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 5: I think Conshuscian Gubert or Yeah or actually or one 146 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 5: of those township areas where the DA kind of support doubled. 147 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 5: And you saw the same thing in Cape Town in 148 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 5: kay Lecha. So what I'm saying is by being in government, 149 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 5: the DA has become legitimized. I think for a lot 150 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 5: of voters who wouldn't previously a vote for it, and 151 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 5: that has literally had not so much to do with 152 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 5: the DA leadership but to do with the DA positioning. 153 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 5: So the one thing I would say in a shorthand 154 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 5: is a lot of this doesn't have to do with 155 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 5: the personality of the leader. Sometimes it does and that's important, 156 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 5: but with the position in which the party finds itself 157 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 5: at a particular moment in time. 158 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 2: Mm hmm. 159 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's so fascinating because that means then just by 160 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 3: mere you know, of the reality of them being in 161 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 3: that in the government of National Unity, that really seems 162 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 3: to impress some voters on the ground, people who then 163 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 3: sort of start thinking, oh, look at what they're able 164 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 3: to do, or look at how they've behaved. 165 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 5: Or absolutely there's another aspect here, and that is you know, 166 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 5: for my time as leader, and certainly in Helen Zilla's 167 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 5: time after me, there was an enormous kind of and 168 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,679 Speaker 5: whether you know Artle was completely wrong, but it was. 169 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 5: It was a labeling. They the A n C and 170 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 5: the A and C, as I said, had a near 171 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 5: monopoly position in the public discourse. In my time. The 172 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 5: ANC kept saying they're the White Party, they're going to 173 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 5: bring back a party it tw though wrong, that was 174 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 5: and fanciful, but you know, you railed, you rain down 175 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 5: a lot of artillery and some of it's you know, 176 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 5: lands and hits and impacts. It's much more difficult for 177 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 5: the A and C or anyone else in their circle 178 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 5: to use that argument now because if you use the 179 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 5: argument the rejoinder just from ordinary folk of well, if 180 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 5: they are illegitimately. 181 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 2: Did you work with it. 182 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 5: Into the government, major portions of governance to the party, 183 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 5: party or whatever you choose to label the man's hyber 184 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 5: misdirect mappy. So I think that has been the other 185 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 5: situational change which a new leader and he's going to 186 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 5: have to do some you know, smart dancing around this 187 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 5: will be able to take advantage of. 188 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 3: Yeah, And I wonder how much smart dancing they need 189 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 3: to they need to do, because there's one sort of 190 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 3: grouping in the party that seems to take the position 191 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 3: that you know, the DA should work pragmatically, you know, 192 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 3: within the government of National Unity to demonstrate its ability 193 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 3: to govern. But there's another group that fears that such 194 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 3: cooperation then risks weakening the party's identity as a robust opposition, 195 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 3: and I'm just wondering how the new leadership of the 196 00:11:55,640 --> 00:12:00,040 Speaker 3: Democratic Alliance needs to then balance that out. And and 197 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 3: let me give you an example, Tony. And I'm you know, 198 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 3: you don't have to comment on this thing that I'm 199 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 3: about to tell you, but I'm just using it as 200 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 3: an example for me. 201 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 2: And I've told I've said this to the listeners before. 202 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 3: I thought when the DA joined the Government of National Unity, 203 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 3: that was both a curse and a blessing. It was 204 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 3: a blessing in that the Democratic Alliance is going to 205 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 3: be able to demonstrate to South Africans what it is 206 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 3: it can do using the leavers and the power of government. 207 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 3: But I said it's a curse because the DA will 208 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 3: have to stand against the high standards that it has 209 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 3: set for the African National Congress when it's been in government. 210 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 3: So the DA yes speaks about being the best in 211 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 3: government and you can't argue with that looking at some 212 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 3: of the metros that the party governs. But there's an 213 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 3: issue some South Africans have with the parties, sort of 214 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 3: hypocrisy on some issues. You can take the issue of 215 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 3: Dean Macpherson traveling to Brazil with his partner. It's costing 216 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 3: three one hundred and fifty thousand rand. And to be clear, 217 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 3: there was nothing wrong in terms of the law that's 218 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 3: been done, but that's never been the position of the deer. 219 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 3: The position of the Dea has always been why is 220 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 3: ma Luci gig about traveling with his wife? Why is 221 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 3: still don't there any Abraham So for instance, when you 222 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:19,319 Speaker 3: look at examples like that, there's some South Africans who feel, well, 223 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 3: he used to set these high standards for ANC ministers, 224 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 3: but you can also meet that as DA ministers. 225 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 2: Is that a conundrum for the party. 226 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:32,559 Speaker 5: Oh, I think it's a real challenge and I think 227 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 5: you've outlined one aspect. There's another one that broke this morning. 228 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,719 Speaker 7: I don't know if you read Jonathan Jansen's extraordinary critique 229 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 7: of the new proposed history syllabus, which will effectively dumb 230 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 7: down and can so a lot of received history. 231 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 5: That is I think quite important to create fully rounded matriculence, 232 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 5: and that's been done. I don't think it had she 233 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 5: had any authoring it. That's been done under the baton 234 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 5: of the d Minister of Basic Education and you can 235 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 5: rest assured if the DA was plarting government and was 236 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 5: an opposition to the Minister of Education. The DA would 237 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 5: have been shouting very loudly about that. So of course, 238 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 5: once you're in government you make compromises. I think though, 239 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 5: to me, one of the advantages of the next leader 240 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 5: of the DA is and once again the very sound 241 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 5: workingers I'm just going to be Jordan. He has indicated 242 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 5: that he's not going into the government, so he's going 243 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 5: to be the leader of the party, but he's not 244 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 5: going to be in the GNU as a serving minister. 245 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 5: So in a way, that critical distance might allow the 246 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 5: party to sharpen its distinctiveness with all the compromises that 247 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 5: happen when you are sitting around the cabinet table and 248 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 5: you've illustrated one of them. And I think that he 249 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 5: might be able. I don't know. This is just an assumption. 250 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 5: I simply don't know what his murders operand is going 251 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 5: to be. Once he's elected. He might be able to 252 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 5: ensure that DA ministers are more sensitive to the fact 253 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 5: that indeed they serve under the collective responsibility mantra of 254 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 5: any governing minister, but they've also got to as far 255 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 5: as possible to make sure that they are aligned with 256 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 5: the DA policies, principles and value system. I'm not suggesting 257 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 5: that current DA ministers and the government aren't, but I 258 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 5: think having a leader who is outside that magic circle 259 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 5: will help that process. But that look, I don't know. 260 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 5: I'm just giving you a theoretical or hypothetical clement. Yeah, 261 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 5: so that the child can I just add one thing 262 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 5: once again, what's interesting to me? And again I quote 263 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 5: those opinion polls for what they work, but they do 264 00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 5: give us at least a photograph and time. Say, the 265 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 5: current poll suggests that most DA voters, despite all these 266 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 5: compromises and concessions you've got to make when you're a 267 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 5: minor exporting government, actually favor the continuance of the GNU, 268 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 5: and most A and C voters do as well. And 269 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 5: most ANC and DA voters suggest in the latest batter 270 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 5: of polls that they would have given a choice after 271 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 5: these municipal elections, the coalition they most favor would be 272 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 5: a DA, A and C coalition, which is interesting. 273 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 3: M that's fascinating. So how do you think the party 274 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 3: then needs to shape its political future and an ability 275 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 3: to expand its national support based ahead of other upcoming 276 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 3: local government elections. Of course, the challenge the DA leader, 277 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 3: whoever is the leadership is going to be. It's the 278 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 3: challenge that other leaders have phased before, the predecessors, and 279 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 3: it's that issue of getting the DA to break through that. 280 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 3: As we've discussed not so long ago, that twenty percent 281 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 3: or so a ceiling. The DA hasn't been able to 282 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 3: grow that exponentially, So you would have to be quite 283 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 3: creative with the message you sell to South Africans as 284 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 3: an organization. What do you think that message needs to 285 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 3: be with your experience of having led and observed to 286 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 3: this organization. 287 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 5: Well, I tried the same thing with very limited success. 288 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,199 Speaker 5: Well a lot of success in one market, limited success 289 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 5: in another market, So maybe I'm not the person to 290 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 5: give the advice. Look, I think in a sense, if 291 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:37,679 Speaker 5: you go back to the leadership change between Helen and Mucy, 292 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 5: the local elections immediately after that when Mucy took over, 293 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 5: were a huge success and profobly got twenty six percent 294 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 5: and then fell downwards rather dramatically in the next general election. 295 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 5: In a way, these local elections coming up I think 296 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,640 Speaker 5: in November will be a great success for the DA, 297 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 5: mainly because the ANC has made such a mess of 298 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 5: local government but that could be an So your question 299 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 5: will be not so much for these elections because I 300 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 5: think in the metros of DA is going to do 301 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 5: very well by not being the AMC and because the 302 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 5: ANC misgovernance and Joe Bergen elsewhere. But I think the 303 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,679 Speaker 5: big test is going to be after November and in 304 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 5: other words, for the next general election twenty twenty nine. 305 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 5: And look, the DA is going to have to take 306 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 5: all the strategies that have work that haven't worked, and 307 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 5: it's going to have to put them through the ring 308 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 5: and it's going to come out with a new one. Look, 309 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 5: I do rate Jordan to actually go and be a 310 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 5: person that a lot of voters outside of the normal 311 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 5: voting base can identify with. I think he's got very 312 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 5: high levels of emotional intelligence. I think he has convictions 313 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 5: that don't arise just out of bolistical calculation or some 314 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 5: polling spreadsheet that he's read. I think he genuinely empathizes 315 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 5: with the situation most South Africans find themselves in. Interesting enough, 316 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 5: he himself, although he comes obviously from what the ams 317 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 5: you record, the privileged case of whiteness, grew up in 318 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 5: very modest personal circumstances, so he's not one of these 319 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 5: rich kids who was you know, you know, wafted forward 320 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 5: on an air on a floating privilege. I think he's actually, 321 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 5: you know, proved in his own life how you can 322 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:33,399 Speaker 5: overcome personal circumstances to reach you know, significant heights. So 323 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 5: I think a lot of that is going to resonate 324 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,919 Speaker 5: with a lot of people. And you know, he's going 325 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 5: to have to take his offer into the broad public 326 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 5: and we'll have to see because basically he's very well 327 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 5: known in Cape Town and he's not known outside of 328 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 5: Cape Town, and this is going to be the test. 329 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 5: So yeah, I think the party will be applying its 330 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 5: mind and hopefully it'll be up to show some heart 331 00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 5: because that is also the thing. You know, You're going 332 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 5: to have any number of policies, you can have any 333 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 5: number of statements, you can have any number of platforms, 334 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 5: but at the end of the day, people have got 335 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 5: to see you to believe you, and to believe what 336 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,919 Speaker 5: they see. Sorry to use reverse raincoats rhetoric, but you 337 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 5: understand what I'm saying that you've got to go into 338 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 5: where people live, work, and and and and play, and 339 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 5: then they've got to see that you can actually relate 340 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 5: to them, and that. 341 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 2: Is understand their issues. 342 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 5: Absolutely. And it's not just about something that you say, 343 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 5: it's about saying that you feel. You know, if I 344 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:44,920 Speaker 5: might go back to the classics of my hope that 345 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,360 Speaker 5: don't disappear entirely from our educational slabar. But who knows, 346 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 5: you know, Ian Forster said, it's some two most important 347 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 5: words in politics maybe enough only connect, only connect. So 348 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 5: if the DA new leader can show that he only connects, 349 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 5: that people actually feel that there's a connection between them 350 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,400 Speaker 5: and him and what he is selling and what they're experiencing, 351 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 5: I think that there will be a breakout. If that 352 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,160 Speaker 5: doesn't happen, I think there'll be more or less a plateau, 353 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 5: which is where the DA is at the moment. It's 354 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 5: a reasonably a hyph Plato. It's a bit of plateau 355 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 5: than other opposition parties, but it's a plateau. 356 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 4: It is. 357 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, Tony Leon, thank you so much. Thank you for 358 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 3: your insights. Former leader of the Democratic Alliance talking to 359 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 3: us about this crucial Congress of the Democratic Alliance that's 360 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 3: coming up this weekend. What do you think of what 361 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 3: he has had to say so far, Tony Leon? That 362 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 3: is about how crucial this conference is jord and here 363 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 3: Lewis is the man that is much likely going to 364 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 3: be elected leader of the Democratic Alliance for the next 365 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,879 Speaker 3: couple of years. Do you think he's the man the 366 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 3: DA needs to sell the message that this is an 367 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:10,159 Speaker 3: organization that wants even more support from the largest voting 368 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,439 Speaker 3: market in South Africa, the black population that is. And 369 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 3: I'm asking that question because Tornillan also says well, Jordan 370 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 3: hill Lewis is known a lot in Capeton, he's famous there, 371 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 3: but he's not so much known across the country. So 372 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 3: there's gonna be a lot of work that the organization 373 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 3: does in getting him on the ground, getting him to 374 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 3: be known by DA supporters, DA members and just ordinary 375 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 3: potential voters around the country. What do you think of 376 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 3: Jordan hill Lewis as someone who's likely to image I'm 377 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 3: out of this Congress as the leader of the DA, 378 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 3: And what do you think how do you think the 379 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 3: DA needs to position itself. How do you think they 380 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:57,360 Speaker 3: can expand their national support base ahead of the upcoming 381 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 3: local government elections. Share your thoughts with us, please seven 382 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 3: two seven o two and seven oh two. That's the 383 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 3: word supply or call us on one one eight day 384 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 3: three seven two. Bali has the latest in eyewitness news headlines. 385 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 1: The dialogue with Clement man Tela. 386 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 2: It's not just another roundtable discussion. 387 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 1: Let's walk the talk. 388 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 3: On seven o two, it's twenty four minutes before twelve o'clock. 389 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:27,159 Speaker 3: We've been having a conversation that's hour about the Democratic 390 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 3: Alliances Congress that's taking place this weekend. How is the 391 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 3: DA's leadership contest likely to shape its political future. I 392 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 3: spoke to Tony Leon first, who is the former leader 393 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 3: of the Democratic Alliance, and I'm going to bring in 394 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 3: two analysts now who are also going to give us 395 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 3: their thoughts around how the DA can position itself. Just 396 00:23:56,080 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 3: position itself as an organization that is in trusted in 397 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 3: expanding its national support base ahead of the upcoming local 398 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 3: government elections. Theres some messages that have come through on 399 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 3: seven two seven two. On seven two, Anonymus says High 400 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 3: Clement with regards to the DA, they have proven to 401 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 3: be the only political party that can govern without massive corruption, 402 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 3: that can govern with service delivery. 403 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 2: But they have. 404 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 3: Plateaued because the face that they show the public is 405 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 3: white male. So the DA is not going to make 406 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 3: massive inroads until they change that, they are vulnerable to 407 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 3: the criticism from the A and C that they're a 408 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 3: racist party. I don't believe they're racist, but within the 409 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 3: South African political community, one needs to be more inclusive. 410 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,399 Speaker 3: That's a message from Lawrence in the East Rand. And 411 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 3: then another one says High Clement. I believe that Jordan 412 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 3: Hill Lewis can grow the party. There's a trend I 413 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,720 Speaker 3: noticed regarding the DA growth when Helen Zillah was leader 414 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,159 Speaker 3: and then mayor. She was able to connect to people 415 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 3: as she saw the bread and better issues as part 416 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 3: of her government deployment, a trend she carried on even 417 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 3: when she was elected premier. I believe it's easier to 418 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,680 Speaker 3: connect to voters when the party leader serves at local 419 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 3: government level. That's another message there from anonymous. Here is 420 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 3: what's up. That's also come. 421 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,439 Speaker 2: Through come morning, Clement Rachel. 422 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 4: As usual, Clement, the DA needs to get rid of 423 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 4: racists within the party. And another thing the DA needs 424 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 4: to get rid of is trying to get the rest 425 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 4: of the population to select to develop selective amnesia regarding 426 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 4: the history of this country. What the DA does, or 427 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 4: what the DA wants to do, is that you know, 428 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 4: forget about everything that happened, forget about your current disadvantage. 429 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 4: Just join us and move on sing kumbaya. No, we 430 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 4: need real redress and the DA is shying away from that. 431 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 3: Thank you, oh, thank you so much for your thoughts. 432 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 3: Let me bring in professor Andre given Age, is a 433 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 3: political analyst with the Northwest University, joining us on the line. 434 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 3: Thank you for making time, Good money. 435 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 6: Morning, Clement. 436 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,160 Speaker 3: We also have lucanam Goni, who is a political analyst 437 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 3: joining this conversation. Loacana, thank you for your time as well. 438 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 8: Good money, Good morning, Clement, and good morning to your listeners. 439 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, let me start with you, Lucana, what do you 440 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 3: think is at stake when we look at this congress 441 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,360 Speaker 3: by the DA this weekend, Because it seems like it's 442 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 3: not just about leadership, but the party's identity and the 443 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 3: party's ability to grow beyond its traditional support based. So 444 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 3: which leadership is going to be able to take the 445 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 3: party to that next level? 446 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,199 Speaker 8: Well, Clement, it's a tough question, because, I mean, the 447 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 8: da is greatest success in terms of the actual number 448 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 8: of people who voted for it was in twenty fourteen, 449 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 8: breaking that four point five million mark. In terms of 450 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 8: number of voters. Look, number of things are important about 451 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 8: this upcoming frongra. It's almost like the final Congress, I believe, 452 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 8: where the old God will have influence in terms of 453 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 8: the a succession and also the first congress where the 454 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 8: Old God will probably not you know, occupy a very 455 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 8: some very senior posts. I mean, if you think about it, 456 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:29,119 Speaker 8: people like doctor Dean, George Deanna are gone even out 457 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,120 Speaker 8: of the party. Helen's Hill will definitely not be part 458 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 8: of the upcoming leadership. She's probably I mean, I remember 459 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 8: when we had this debate with you sometimes with her 460 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 8: coming on to say no, she doesn't influence, only has 461 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 8: one vote. I think this will be the last congress 462 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 8: where she has materials influence in terms of how the 463 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 8: succession is going. Particularly if you look at who is 464 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 8: the friend now, which is you know, Jordan Hill Lewis, 465 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 8: and he will become the next leader of the DA. 466 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 8: He is seen as I mean in some of the 467 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 8: DA cycles even calls even called Mama's boy in indicating 468 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 8: proximity that he has to Helen. What's going to be interesting, Clement, 469 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 8: is the amount of space the new leadership will be 470 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 8: given to craft its own identity of the party, its 471 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 8: own messaging of the party, turning it into the Party 472 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 8: of the future. If you remember when John Sienaism was 473 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,720 Speaker 8: announcing in Deban that he will not be available for leadership, 474 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,199 Speaker 8: he spoke about a need for someone to take the 475 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 8: party to twenty twenty nine in a way that you know, 476 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 8: would ensure that the party has a material stake in 477 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 8: the government that is to come for it to do 478 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 8: that well, of course, the first risk that's going to 479 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 8: happen is that before the next election in twenty twenty nine, 480 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 8: the DA will have to go to Congress because they 481 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 8: work in three year cycles, so in twenty twenty nine 482 00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:58,959 Speaker 8: around this time, they will have to have a Congress, 483 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 8: and that will be materially affected by how the DA 484 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,959 Speaker 8: performs in the upcoming local government elections, how it it 485 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:11,239 Speaker 8: delivers or not deliver us inside the GNU and in 486 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 8: those local municipalities where it to be represented as of now, 487 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 8: and lastly, climent whether or not people will feel that 488 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 8: this new leadership has full control and authority over the 489 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 8: organization to reach out to other sections of society in 490 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:31,240 Speaker 8: South Africa and and and and really this is an 491 00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 8: important generational break. Congress if you think about it, where 492 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 8: new leads of the Democratic Alliance are probably going to 493 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 8: emerge to take the DA into the future for the 494 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 8: next ten to twenty years. 495 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 3: That's it's going to be so interesting, Professor given can 496 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 3: I get your thoughts there as well? 497 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 2: Whereas the old because the old. 498 00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 3: God may not necessarily be there as in holding these 499 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 3: actual positions. But who says they're not going to be 500 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 3: driving things behind the scenes like they have before. 501 00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 6: You know, if you look at the history, the culture 502 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 6: and the context of the DA, the DA may have 503 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 6: a liberal democratic policy, social democratic policy approach, but the 504 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 6: party is also in many ways conservative, and with conservative 505 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 6: I am basically referring to continuity. You will see that basically, 506 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,120 Speaker 6: and we will see what happened in the next few days. 507 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 6: But Gordon hill Lewis is basically already selected by a 508 00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 6: number of chosen people behind the scenes to take over 509 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 6: in THEDA. So these people are not going to be 510 00:30:55,080 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 6: disappearing in the next day or two. They will still 511 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 6: be an influential factor. And it's an interesting tradition within 512 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 6: the DA that the moment they are running into a 513 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 6: crisis of some sort, they are resorting back to their 514 00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 6: brain Trust, their traditional leadership, and this happened with John 515 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,960 Speaker 6: Steernas and this is now going to happen, I believe 516 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 6: with Gordon and Lewis. But I think we must approach 517 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 6: the topic also from another angle, and that is that 518 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 6: there are a number of major challenges for the Democratic 519 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 6: Alliance at this point. They came from a crisis in 520 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 6: terms of the whole John Stearnation food and Moalth disease crisis, 521 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 6: the Dion George episode and what happened behind the scenes, 522 00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 6: and it is clear that the Farming community, some of 523 00:31:56,080 --> 00:32:02,479 Speaker 6: their core supporters, linking to the broader Freconner community, is 524 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:07,120 Speaker 6: in a way dissatisfied with what happened with the DA 525 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 6: and specifically with Jonson in person. So there's a challenge 526 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 6: on that side, and we have seen that resulting in 527 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 6: some constituencies being one or got beer majorities towards parties 528 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,719 Speaker 6: like the Freedom Front plus I think in Pretoria and 529 00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:32,560 Speaker 6: some other places. But then on the other side, there's 530 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 6: also the challenge coming from the Patriotic Alliance and the 531 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 6: so called Colored grouping. There's more and more of identity 532 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 6: politics coming through, and this is endangering the position of 533 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 6: the Democratic Alliance and it is clear to me that 534 00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 6: these challenges should be addressed as soon as possible. Now 535 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 6: we know that the DA has a very strong and 536 00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:08,640 Speaker 6: very effective electoral machine and they can do a job. 537 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 6: They have strong leaders in position, they have a strong 538 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 6: party with process protocol and so on. But still it's 539 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 6: going to be challenging. It is interesting what ipsos are 540 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 6: telling us about the DA is lying somewhere between twenty 541 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 6: two and twenty five percent. I agree with that assessment. 542 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 6: ANC thirty to thirty five percent. The strong point of 543 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 6: the DA, and that's my last point is they have 544 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:44,120 Speaker 6: the ability to deliver their support base during election day. 545 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 6: And on the AMC side, there's a huge lot of apathy, 546 00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 6: people not prepare to go and vote on a day, 547 00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 6: a stay away factor that is going to be negative 548 00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 6: for the ANC. And he even taking them below thirty 549 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 6: percent in ucoming local elections. 550 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, look on, let's look at Jordan Hill Lewis for 551 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,520 Speaker 3: a bit now, because Antoni Leon made the point as 552 00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 3: well that he's not so much known across the country. 553 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 3: I mean he is here in Cape Town. He is 554 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 3: known here. He's quite popular here in the Western Cape. 555 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:28,440 Speaker 3: People know him, but he really doesn't have that strong 556 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:32,799 Speaker 3: of a constituency, but also even among ordinary South Africans, 557 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 3: you know, not everybody when you put up his image 558 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 3: will tell you, oh, I know who this person is. 559 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 3: So is he the person the DA needs now in 560 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:46,400 Speaker 3: order to expand its national support base because the challenge 561 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 3: that his predecessors have faced is the issue of getting 562 00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,279 Speaker 3: the DA to break through that twenty percent twenty one 563 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 3: percent or so ceiling. The day hasn't been able to 564 00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,439 Speaker 3: grow that exponentially, so they would need to find quite 565 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,919 Speaker 3: creative ways, even with their messaging to sell to South 566 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,239 Speaker 3: Africans as an organization. Do you think this is the 567 00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,759 Speaker 3: man that they will be able to do that with? 568 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,239 Speaker 8: Well, look, I mean Clement for a party you know, 569 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 8: which was on the ballot in nineteen ninety four is 570 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,960 Speaker 8: the Democratic Party with one point seven percent of the vote, 571 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:25,760 Speaker 8: it has actually probably outpaced itself in terms of growth. 572 00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,560 Speaker 8: I don't think that the DA goes any further than 573 00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 8: where it is. Even hitting twenty five percent, in my view, 574 00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 8: would probably be a function of a low voter turnout 575 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 8: and differentiated turnout in terms of their own support base. 576 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,600 Speaker 8: It's not necessarily a sign of growth. The key question 577 00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,560 Speaker 8: is can the DA hit five million votes in a 578 00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,399 Speaker 8: national election of five million voters, and I think that's 579 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,400 Speaker 8: the key question. And I don't think that it happens 580 00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,200 Speaker 8: at least and it's not just only a function of 581 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,759 Speaker 8: you know, John hill Loui is not being known. He's 582 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 8: probably the best bet that they have. I mean, Alan 583 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,880 Speaker 8: Winde is not that known. His premier product or in 584 00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 8: Hill Louis is much more known than him. The party 585 00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:11,440 Speaker 8: machinerdo WI level responsibility to sell him, you know, to 586 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,960 Speaker 8: various constituencies. But I do think that you also need 587 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 8: to look at the provincial layer of leadership where the 588 00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:21,200 Speaker 8: DA has actually become standard in terms of, you know, 589 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 8: who it puts across. I mean, you take two provinces 590 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,799 Speaker 8: whose constituencies by far larger black voters. And of course 591 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 8: the terminology that we use in terms of you know, 592 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:37,440 Speaker 8: electoral analysis. In in Guazulo Natal the leader is you know, 593 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:42,520 Speaker 8: Dean macfisten. You know, with Francois Rogers. You go to 594 00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,960 Speaker 8: the Eastern Cape, the leader is Andrew Whitfield. So you 595 00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 8: also have a DA that is so tone deaf to 596 00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:53,560 Speaker 8: the constituent makeup of some of the key provinces that 597 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,800 Speaker 8: are the hard bit of electoral competition in the country. 598 00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 8: So where you fail in terms of national leadership, you 599 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,839 Speaker 8: tend to compensate in terms of the quality and the 600 00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,879 Speaker 8: resonance of your provincial leadership. But because of what during 601 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 8: Age is saying, the DA also has this conservative element 602 00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 8: where as long as it becomes you know, stepped in 603 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,839 Speaker 8: its own traditions, it doesn't make it then deems it 604 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:23,360 Speaker 8: unnecessary to conduct an analysis of who becomes the leader. 605 00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 8: And yet it is not particularly in the context of 606 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,239 Speaker 8: trying to spread the message and get across. I mean, 607 00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,279 Speaker 8: it's no longer the DA that would attract you know, 608 00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,440 Speaker 8: various leaders like maybe let's say an adult Trollip who 609 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,560 Speaker 8: could you know, even attempt to speak as it first. 610 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,200 Speaker 8: It's not the DA that's elevating people like who have 611 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,840 Speaker 8: become charismatic in some constituencies in Gazunata, like Christopher purpose 612 00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,759 Speaker 8: to take up leadership position. So it's not only just 613 00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,000 Speaker 8: about critiquing that it has too many white leaders. It's 614 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,759 Speaker 8: also about the type of white leaders who then resonate 615 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 8: with the electorate. I mean, at a height of seeming 616 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,480 Speaker 8: political transformation. Helen Zill even God given a name by 617 00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,439 Speaker 8: you know a black voters that she's non Popple, which 618 00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 8: meant that they were relating and resonating with to a 619 00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,560 Speaker 8: point and then to a point where she made a 620 00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 8: uten to back to this consolidation of the conservative elements. 621 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,120 Speaker 8: And it's what I call Clement, the DA failing to 622 00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:21,440 Speaker 8: then open it open itself up as indeed, that Liberal 623 00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:24,799 Speaker 8: party two different forms of persuasion to a point that 624 00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 8: they nearly collapsed the Congress that was in Clibeta a 625 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 8: few years ago when they needed to insert diversity as 626 00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 8: the fourth value in the values that defined the existence 627 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,720 Speaker 8: of the DA, there were such conservative elements that people 628 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,960 Speaker 8: thought the acceptance of diversity as a value of the 629 00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 8: Democratic Alliance would open the door to less you know, 630 00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:50,520 Speaker 8: a liberal, to less conservative people in the identity and 631 00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,640 Speaker 8: image of the d N Then in I think the 632 00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:56,040 Speaker 8: DA began to lose costs and it's called probably going 633 00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,239 Speaker 8: to be very difficult to return to that DA that 634 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,560 Speaker 8: was entering and you know, maneuvering as many communities as 635 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,520 Speaker 8: possible between the period of two thousand and nine and 636 00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:09,560 Speaker 8: twenty sixteen. And lastly, Clement, it's not only that Jordan 637 00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:13,320 Speaker 8: hill Lewis may be little known what is not stated 638 00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,400 Speaker 8: about the DA is actually the fact that in the 639 00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:19,280 Speaker 8: twenty twenty one elections in the City of Cape Town, 640 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:24,960 Speaker 8: the DA lost almost ten percent of of of support 641 00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:28,759 Speaker 8: that in that municipality. And one of the things that 642 00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,759 Speaker 8: we are looking at quite critically is whether or not 643 00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,759 Speaker 8: it's going to regain that lost ground or it's going 644 00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:38,160 Speaker 8: to be further eroded by some elements of the Patriotic Alliance, 645 00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:43,040 Speaker 8: the National Color Congress, some elements of you know, you know, 646 00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:47,080 Speaker 8: you know, a Serendum party now infusing itself to the 647 00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:51,319 Speaker 8: Freedom fun Class. These are very important dynamics within the 648 00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:55,239 Speaker 8: Western Cape context, Bordern dynamics within Cape Town. And I 649 00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,480 Speaker 8: do think that as much as Jordan Hill Lewis is 650 00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,839 Speaker 8: committed to running as mayor of the City of Cape Town, 651 00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,799 Speaker 8: if he really really wants to show himself up as 652 00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,080 Speaker 8: the leader that can take the DA forward in the 653 00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,200 Speaker 8: twenty twenty nine elections, strategically, he might have to think 654 00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,279 Speaker 8: twice about leaving the City of Cape Town after the 655 00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,600 Speaker 8: elections and then joining the Government of National Unity as 656 00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,840 Speaker 8: a member of cabinet and so that it can help 657 00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,759 Speaker 8: trust him into the spotlight of the nation. 658 00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:27,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, at national level, your thoughts on what the DA 659 00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,360 Speaker 3: needs to do to sort of break through that twenty 660 00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:31,960 Speaker 3: percent silly? 661 00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 6: Well, I think a number of things. The first thing, 662 00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,960 Speaker 6: I think Gordon you Lewis is probably as good as 663 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:44,360 Speaker 6: they can get at this point. There are other competitive leaders, 664 00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:49,000 Speaker 6: but I think Gordon you Lewis was the best choice. 665 00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:51,319 Speaker 6: If he's going to make it, But I would say 666 00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,600 Speaker 6: the chances he's ninety five to ninety nine percent that 667 00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,840 Speaker 6: he would take it. How can he do that? He 668 00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:05,240 Speaker 6: must first consolidate is leadership position and a leadership group, 669 00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:11,200 Speaker 6: and then they must resort on a very strong election campaign. 670 00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,640 Speaker 6: Now there is a huge catch twenty two for all 671 00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,800 Speaker 6: political parties, but also for the DA. Now, the DA, 672 00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:25,720 Speaker 6: as a liberal democratic party, is primarily focusing on individuals 673 00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:30,400 Speaker 6: and try to accommodate the interest of individuals, while a 674 00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:35,200 Speaker 6: party like the IFP is a party more exclusive for 675 00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:39,960 Speaker 6: a certain group. The Freedom Front plus more exclusive for 676 00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:46,040 Speaker 6: a certain group. To accommodate both groups and individuals in 677 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,440 Speaker 6: the South African context is a bit of a catch 678 00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:54,879 Speaker 6: twenty two situation, and my take on it is that 679 00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:58,919 Speaker 6: if the DA want to break through a ceiling, they 680 00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:03,759 Speaker 6: need to focus not only on individuals, but try to 681 00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:10,719 Speaker 6: give some room to group identity without creating such a 682 00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:16,200 Speaker 6: conflict that it's going to take their supporters, the traditional 683 00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:22,279 Speaker 6: supporters away. Secondly, I believe their strongest support base and 684 00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:27,040 Speaker 6: history as shown that is more in the urban areas 685 00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:31,480 Speaker 6: and in the metropols in comparison to the rural areas. 686 00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:36,920 Speaker 6: In the rural areas, parties like the ANC, the EFF 687 00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:40,680 Speaker 6: and the MKA Party is definitely going to do better. 688 00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:44,520 Speaker 6: So I would put the emphasis and the energy on 689 00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:50,120 Speaker 6: the urban area and specifically the metros. And then very important, 690 00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:56,799 Speaker 6: they need to get the slate clean from all controversies, 691 00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:03,840 Speaker 6: consolidate their leadership, go in to a strategic session plan properly. 692 00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:07,040 Speaker 6: Now my own take is that it's going to be 693 00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:11,880 Speaker 6: difficult for them to go past twenty five percent. I 694 00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,040 Speaker 6: would say at this point they will be lucky to 695 00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:20,200 Speaker 6: get twenty two percent. But we can say that parties 696 00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:26,880 Speaker 6: like the ANC and the Democratic Alliance is gaining momentum 697 00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:31,080 Speaker 6: closer to the election date and at this point we 698 00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,640 Speaker 6: do not even know what is going to when is 699 00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:38,000 Speaker 6: the election going to take place. A last point that 700 00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:42,480 Speaker 6: is important. We have seen a proliferation of the political 701 00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:46,360 Speaker 6: process the last few I have seen is that about 702 00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:51,480 Speaker 6: five hundred plus political parties want to register for the election, 703 00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:56,560 Speaker 6: and we don't know how these smaller parties are going 704 00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:02,640 Speaker 6: to impact on the bigger broad church type parties like 705 00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:06,640 Speaker 6: the ANC and to a certain extent, the Democratic Alliance. 706 00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:12,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, Professor Andre Duvenache a political analyst, and lucon Amgourni, 707 00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,399 Speaker 3: also a political analyst. Thank you so much to both 708 00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:19,200 Speaker 3: of you for joining us for this conversation. Truly truly 709 00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:22,719 Speaker 3: appreciate it. It's a minute now before top for drug