1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,520
Speaker 1: And now The Money Show with Stephen credits on seven

2
00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:04,960
Speaker 1: oh two.

3
00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:06,360
Speaker 2: Let's walk little.

4
00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:08,760
Speaker 3: The Money Show with Stephen Curtis is brought to you

5
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,640
Speaker 3: by ABS Corporate and Investment Banking, proud sponsor of the

6
00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:16,120
Speaker 3: LMA ICMA Loan and Capital Markets Africa Summer twenty twenty six.

7
00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:18,800
Speaker 3: ABS is a registered FSP. Good evening to you. I'm

8
00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,640
Speaker 3: Stephen Curtis. At seven minutes after six the time, I've

9
00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:27,240
Speaker 3: been driving around, looking around, moving kids to school, watching

10
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 3: what's happening in my neighborhood, watching what's happening on the

11
00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,879
Speaker 3: commute into Santon, and just getting a sense that from

12
00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,680
Speaker 3: the start of the year something has changed in traffic patterns.

13
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:40,839
Speaker 3: When I was in Cape Town this morning and I

14
00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,760
Speaker 3: was coming back after the budget yesterday and I was,

15
00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:45,879
Speaker 3: you know, on a highway in the back of an

16
00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,000
Speaker 3: uber at kind of six o'clock this morning, not that

17
00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,640
Speaker 3: early but all good, but kind of early to start

18
00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,760
Speaker 3: the day for a lot of people, and you're going

19
00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,080
Speaker 3: up against the traffic. Right six o'clock in the morning,

20
00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,560
Speaker 3: that highway was full, full, full full. Talking to Karabo now,

21
00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,600
Speaker 3: he's like something shifted on the M one, I thought,

22
00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,200
Speaker 3: And we had a long conversation about this. The production

23
00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,240
Speaker 3: team and I and I thought, actually we thought we'd

24
00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,559
Speaker 3: put together a special conversation about that. I'm really looking

25
00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,039
Speaker 3: forward obviously being the Money Show. It's about what it

26
00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,720
Speaker 3: costs you and how much time you lose in particular,

27
00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:19,679
Speaker 3: because that's the big cost. So from around twenty to

28
00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,600
Speaker 3: seven tonight, so call it half an hour from now,

29
00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,040
Speaker 3: you'll hear from Amor Romela, who's the morning traffic reporter

30
00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,360
Speaker 3: on seven oh two Afrika Malani. You'll know he does

31
00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,600
Speaker 3: early breakfast on seven oh two and Cape Talk and

32
00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,959
Speaker 3: he often drives against that early morning traffic that I'm

33
00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:37,920
Speaker 3: talking about in Cape Town. I thought he would be

34
00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,760
Speaker 3: a good person to hear from. Well, speak to doctor

35
00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,600
Speaker 3: Meghan Brewer from the Transport and Logistics Department at the

36
00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,720
Speaker 3: University of sellin Boston, Offense and Medesha. He's an independent

37
00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:48,880
Speaker 3: transport economist. He tells me he's been looking at some

38
00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,800
Speaker 3: of the numbers as to how much money we lose,

39
00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 3: how much time we lose in the traffic. What I

40
00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,320
Speaker 3: would like to hear from you, if that's okay, is

41
00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,480
Speaker 3: please from the start of the year only if you

42
00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,520
Speaker 3: don't mind your worst traffic experience. What's the worst that

43
00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,680
Speaker 3: you've seen this year, and I'll happily share mine with you.

44
00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,480
Speaker 3: I live in a place not a million miles from Santon,

45
00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,760
Speaker 3: and just the block, the sort of block that I

46
00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,680
Speaker 3: live in, there's a park near it. That entire park

47
00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,840
Speaker 3: was encircled by cars one morning. Was the worst I've

48
00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,560
Speaker 3: seen about three weeks ago. The entire block. You would

49
00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:24,760
Speaker 3: if you'd wanted to go in a particular direction out

50
00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:26,399
Speaker 3: of your house, you wouldn't have been able to do it.

51
00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,000
Speaker 3: Quite scary in some ways. I'm sure there are some

52
00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,680
Speaker 3: people in Cape Town Ann and Joe Burg here at

53
00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:33,560
Speaker 3: certain times have not been able to move out of

54
00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,120
Speaker 3: their house at all in both directions. So please your

55
00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,920
Speaker 3: worst experience in traffic this year? What have you seen?

56
00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,399
Speaker 3: What have you experienced? How much money has it cost you? Oh?

57
00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,560
Speaker 3: Seven two seven oh two one seven oh two. You

58
00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,880
Speaker 3: might also have a route that from the start of

59
00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 3: the year you just dread. Maybe it's you know, the

60
00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:52,160
Speaker 3: school run, Maybe it's fetching a child from here, or

61
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,480
Speaker 3: going to a particular work event there. Maybe they're places

62
00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:57,480
Speaker 3: I think they're shopping centers that people just don't go

63
00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,440
Speaker 3: to because of the traffic. I'd really appreciate hearing your

64
00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,720
Speaker 3: story to add you to our conversation if you don't

65
00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 3: mind SPUR having quite a strong set of results and

66
00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:10,160
Speaker 3: in fact people are spending above their menu inflation if

67
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,720
Speaker 3: you like. At SPUR will speak to the CEO of

68
00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,600
Speaker 3: Al Nachas in just a moment and to their John

69
00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,560
Speaker 3: Dory group. Seems to be battling a little bit, Craig Miller.

70
00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:20,679
Speaker 3: He's the CEO of Alterra Platnam. Now they had the

71
00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,400
Speaker 3: results out yesterday and I noticed and it was sort

72
00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,560
Speaker 3: of brought to my attention the zimbabwe In government owes

73
00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:29,000
Speaker 3: them one hundred million US dollars. There's a particular way

74
00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,559
Speaker 3: the Zimbabwean government does things, in your mind, in that jurisdiction.

75
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:34,800
Speaker 3: I think that's going to be an important conversation Craig

76
00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,480
Speaker 3: Miller on your radio, with talk of course about traffic

77
00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,400
Speaker 3: after that, and then in small business focus this evening

78
00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:45,400
Speaker 3: government sort of helping SMEs that tax relief and just

79
00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,600
Speaker 3: looking at how all of that plays out I think

80
00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:50,280
Speaker 3: is really quite interesting. But looking forward to hearing from

81
00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,800
Speaker 3: you please on double one, double A three oh seven

82
00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,520
Speaker 3: or two and two one four four six, five six

83
00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,560
Speaker 3: six listen to me. Do that sound a bit stuck?

84
00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,480
Speaker 3: There really is quite something sometimes two one four, four, six,

85
00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,000
Speaker 3: five sixty seven. And you thought that I was a

86
00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,920
Speaker 3: real life human being and not an AI agent. Mm hmmm.

87
00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:10,440
Speaker 3: And voice notes please on the traffic. I can see

88
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,560
Speaker 3: some of them coming in already, I know. Seven two

89
00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,040
Speaker 3: seven oh two one seven oh two. Good evening, eleven

90
00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,120
Speaker 3: minutes after six The Money Show.

91
00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:21,760
Speaker 1: With Stephen Krutters Live on ninety two point seven and

92
00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,080
Speaker 1: one o six FM, streaming on the Prime Media Plus.

93
00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,880
Speaker 2: Now and DStv channel eight five six.

94
00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,520
Speaker 3: Well the Spur Corporation saying it's been able to put

95
00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,720
Speaker 3: their headline earnings up on nearly thirteen percent despite what

96
00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:36,760
Speaker 3: I still see as a relatively tough environment in which

97
00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,440
Speaker 3: to be a restaurant chain. They're also able to convince

98
00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,680
Speaker 3: customers to spend more than their menu inflation rates. In

99
00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,159
Speaker 3: other words, people are going and having I don't know,

100
00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,640
Speaker 3: the big Fanta rather than the small one. I suppose

101
00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,680
Speaker 3: Velnachus is the CEO at Spur VL. Good evening, Good

102
00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,760
Speaker 3: to chat again. You have quite intense competition. I mean,

103
00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,320
Speaker 3: you go to a center with a Spur, with any

104
00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,640
Speaker 3: of your outlets, there's probably a pizza place on one

105
00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,120
Speaker 3: side and a fish place on the other. How have

106
00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,919
Speaker 3: you been able to get people to continue to increase

107
00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:08,200
Speaker 3: their spending at your different outlets despite all of this competition.

108
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:14,800
Speaker 4: Stephen with difficulty. I think there is a big amount

109
00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:20,000
Speaker 4: of competitive activity out there. I think probably one advantage

110
00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:23,200
Speaker 4: the Spur group does have is just the size of

111
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:28,240
Speaker 4: its active loyal customer members. So, yes, it has not

112
00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,960
Speaker 4: been easy, even though the results are good, we must

113
00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,719
Speaker 4: understand these overall results. But we know that in certain

114
00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:39,680
Speaker 4: shopping nodes competitions heavy. There's some store that aren't trading

115
00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:44,120
Speaker 4: as well because customers are strapped for cash. So no,

116
00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,960
Speaker 4: it hasn't been easy. But I think our active loyal

117
00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,400
Speaker 4: base has definitely continued to benefit us.

118
00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,760
Speaker 3: I mean it's interesting to see how the competition is

119
00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,000
Speaker 3: focusing because you have to do, I presume a lot

120
00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,320
Speaker 3: more advertising. You have to make sure you're in the

121
00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,400
Speaker 3: right place as well, that's probably quite important. And then

122
00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,279
Speaker 3: you've got foot in mouth, which must have been pushing

123
00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,159
Speaker 3: your beef prices up quite dramatically.

124
00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:11,360
Speaker 4: Yes, absolutely, And I think another dimension that is important

125
00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:15,480
Speaker 4: in these difficult and constrained times is the fact that

126
00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:20,000
Speaker 4: the consumer is less forgiven, you know, I think there's

127
00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:24,400
Speaker 4: just no room for error. They going to spend money,

128
00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,040
Speaker 4: They're busy, they have busy schedules, and when they come

129
00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,320
Speaker 4: into a restaurant to have a little bit of connection

130
00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,960
Speaker 4: time with their families and have a meal, I think

131
00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,280
Speaker 4: they have high expectations, and I think the risk when

132
00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:39,720
Speaker 4: you're not offering that expected experience, I think you probably

133
00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:41,120
Speaker 4: could lose customers.

134
00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,560
Speaker 3: Are people changing what they eat because meat prices are

135
00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:46,720
Speaker 3: so much high, They're moving maybe to chicken rather than

136
00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,040
Speaker 3: beef or fish, or maybe some of them may be

137
00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:50,919
Speaker 3: going veggie.

138
00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a bit early to see if there's been

139
00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:58,920
Speaker 4: a dramatic change. I think it's more about price sensitivity.

140
00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,839
Speaker 4: So I think if you came in and had a

141
00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,960
Speaker 4: lovely combo meal and you find by one hundred and

142
00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,359
Speaker 4: forty one hundred and fifty rand, I don't think you'll squirll.

143
00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:11,920
Speaker 4: I think if you are priss conscious and you like

144
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,280
Speaker 4: having your entry level berg and suddenly your entry level

145
00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,720
Speaker 4: burger's gone up, I think there you probably will get

146
00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,480
Speaker 4: a consumer other than not coming back or switching to

147
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:26,400
Speaker 4: something cheaper. So I think it depends on the store,

148
00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,280
Speaker 4: the location, and also the consumer.

149
00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,360
Speaker 3: You're John Dory's unit, so it's fish, sushi and grills,

150
00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:34,040
Speaker 3: and it seems to be in a bit of trouble.

151
00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:35,760
Speaker 3: I mean their sales are done eleven percent.

152
00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:41,000
Speaker 4: Yes, yeah, I look that brand has had some difficulty

153
00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,840
Speaker 4: over the last couple of years. I think it's a

154
00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:49,120
Speaker 4: combination of things. We know, the seafood category in economic

155
00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,960
Speaker 4: downturn is not always your first choice. It's always perceived

156
00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:54,880
Speaker 4: to be a little bit more of an expensive eat.

157
00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:59,360
Speaker 4: Also because we promote sushi and that does have that perception. Yeah,

158
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,560
Speaker 4: so there's still a lot of work to do. We're

159
00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:06,240
Speaker 4: not without hope. You know, it's like having a sick

160
00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,800
Speaker 4: child or a child that's struggling at school. You've got

161
00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,040
Speaker 4: to step in there and try and support and see

162
00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,080
Speaker 4: how we're going to turn it. We have very dedicated

163
00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:19,560
Speaker 4: franchisees in that brand. They love the brand. But yes,

164
00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,520
Speaker 4: there will be some rationalization that's going to take place,

165
00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:27,480
Speaker 4: will have started already with you know, franchisees might not

166
00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,920
Speaker 4: beile to hold on to really poor performing stores. Some

167
00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:35,920
Speaker 4: will be brand conversions, and then obviously to restrategize how

168
00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,400
Speaker 4: we're going to win the consumer over.

169
00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:42,440
Speaker 3: I get the idea that you know, a family of five, six,

170
00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:44,840
Speaker 3: seven people could have someone who wants a burger, someone

171
00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:47,280
Speaker 3: who wants someone who wants sushi, someone who wants fish.

172
00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:52,080
Speaker 3: But maybe that market, just that model doesn't just doesn't work.

173
00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,240
Speaker 3: Maybe a bit of specialization is in order, which is

174
00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,480
Speaker 3: quite strange. Really, it goes against rationality.

175
00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,680
Speaker 4: Oh, yes, it could be. I mean there is one

176
00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:04,040
Speaker 4: advantage that John Dorley's has always had over traditional seafood

177
00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:08,600
Speaker 4: restaurants is that it does offer one or two alternative proteins.

178
00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:10,199
Speaker 4: So if you've got a family that are going out

179
00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:14,319
Speaker 4: for seaper food and maybe mom wants chicken, she can

180
00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:18,439
Speaker 4: have it. So that is an advantage. But primarily people

181
00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:20,520
Speaker 4: still come to John Dory's for seafood.

182
00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,800
Speaker 3: You're still opening more restaurants this year despite what do

183
00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,720
Speaker 3: you describe as sort of still a weak consumer environment.

184
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 3: I mean, you're clearly quite bullish about the future despite

185
00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,080
Speaker 3: really quite difficult times for people.

186
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:36,520
Speaker 4: Yes, And I think the lesson there is, as we've

187
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 4: always all learned through business, is in economic downtterm, you

188
00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,760
Speaker 4: mustn't stop growing, you mustn't stop expanding, because when the

189
00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,280
Speaker 4: market turns, you want to have outlets that are at

190
00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:51,400
Speaker 4: arms reach of the consumer. So no, we continue looking

191
00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,320
Speaker 4: for opportunities. Obviously, there's a lot of development happening in

192
00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:58,160
Speaker 4: South Africa and new shopping malls, new shopping areas, and

193
00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,680
Speaker 4: lots of housing development, and all those people have to

194
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:06,800
Speaker 4: have access to some eating out of home environment. So no,

195
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,000
Speaker 4: that is still a priority for us, and a lot

196
00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:11,640
Speaker 4: of our growth, even though we have attracted a lot

197
00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:15,080
Speaker 4: of new franchisees through the process of last period, a

198
00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,840
Speaker 4: lot of the growth is coming from our existing franchisees.

199
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,000
Speaker 4: You have confidence in the brand and have the money

200
00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,160
Speaker 4: to invest you.

201
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,680
Speaker 3: The last time we spoke all the time before that,

202
00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,440
Speaker 3: we spoke about how your outlets have been investing in

203
00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,040
Speaker 3: water storage and the ability to survive power cuts. And

204
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,480
Speaker 3: I suppose electricity is often the mall's problem or a

205
00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,480
Speaker 3: censors problem, and you'll sort of work off that. But

206
00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,440
Speaker 3: the water storage investments you're making in joe Burg, now,

207
00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:42,240
Speaker 3: are they beginning to sort of pay off?

208
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,480
Speaker 4: Yes, A lot of the franchisees have put in Jojo tanks,

209
00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:52,040
Speaker 4: which maybe can supply water for about four days. They

210
00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,840
Speaker 4: haven't all had to use them because I mean, we've

211
00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,880
Speaker 4: had intermittent interruptions of water so I don't think it's

212
00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 4: reached a crisis yet because it is difficult to run

213
00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:06,120
Speaker 4: a restaurant without water. The last count I think we

214
00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,400
Speaker 4: had almost close to about three hundred restaurants that have

215
00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:11,680
Speaker 4: got alternative sources for water.

216
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:13,480
Speaker 5: But it's not.

217
00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,160
Speaker 4: As easy as putting in a generator to sort out

218
00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:20,280
Speaker 4: the energy crisis, because obviously it's just its volume.

219
00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:20,920
Speaker 6: It's so big.

220
00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,240
Speaker 4: So sometimes restaurants are based in chopping malls and don't

221
00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,640
Speaker 4: have the space for any form of the tank. So

222
00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,640
Speaker 4: I think it's still something that concerns us. But let's

223
00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:33,400
Speaker 4: see hard.

224
00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:35,680
Speaker 3: All and fold. I mean, it's quite difficult in a

225
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:37,760
Speaker 3: way because there are plenty of other companies that will

226
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:42,760
Speaker 3: have invested heavily in electricity generation. Made sense at stage six,

227
00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,440
Speaker 3: maybe doesn't make as much sense now, I suppose with

228
00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:48,840
Speaker 3: Water and Joeberg, and let me be honest, I don't

229
00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,679
Speaker 3: see a short term fix, so it's probably a good

230
00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:53,760
Speaker 3: long term investment no matter what happens.

231
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,439
Speaker 4: Well, yes, it's true. I think it's going to be

232
00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,599
Speaker 4: like trading in the rest of Africa. You've got to

233
00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,080
Speaker 4: have all those things.

234
00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,360
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Well, Nias is the CEO at

235
00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,880
Speaker 3: the Spur Corporation nineteen minutes after.

236
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:13,880
Speaker 1: Six Stephen, that's on the Money Shows six to eight pm.

237
00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,439
Speaker 3: Well, I'm at all of the results released yesterday by

238
00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 3: the platinum minor Volterra. The news that's in Barbwie's government

239
00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:23,040
Speaker 3: still is the one hundred million US dollars. The way

240
00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,040
Speaker 3: it works in Zimbabwe, as I understand it, as the

241
00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,640
Speaker 3: government says exporters can only keep seventy percent of their

242
00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,640
Speaker 3: earnings and foreign currency. The rest has to be converted

243
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,520
Speaker 3: to Zimbabwe and currency. Craig Miller is the CEO at

244
00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:38,199
Speaker 3: Volterra Platinum. Craig Good Evening one hundred million dollars one

245
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,600
Speaker 3: and a half billion rant. It's a fair amount of change.

246
00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:42,760
Speaker 3: I mean it must be money. You would quite like

247
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:43,719
Speaker 3: to have back.

248
00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,400
Speaker 7: Good Evening, Stephen and meet to your listeners. Yes, certainly.

249
00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:52,200
Speaker 7: I think from our perspective, ensuring that we receive the

250
00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:56,480
Speaker 7: whole proceeds of our of our revenue that we generate

251
00:12:56,520 --> 00:13:00,240
Speaker 7: in Zimbabwe is really key for us, and we have

252
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:04,920
Speaker 7: been in discussions with the government of Zimbabwe to rectify

253
00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:06,800
Speaker 7: the situation. So it's been going on for a couple

254
00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,760
Speaker 7: of months now where we've been not been able to

255
00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:14,680
Speaker 7: receive the local currency element of the remittances, and we're

256
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,920
Speaker 7: in conversations with them to try to rectify the situation

257
00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,480
Speaker 7: going forward, we put something in place which is sustainable

258
00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,160
Speaker 7: not only for Votter or platinum, but for the PGM

259
00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:26,600
Speaker 7: industry in Zimbabwe which is also affected by this.

260
00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:29,679
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know if they have if they

261
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,040
Speaker 3: have the current the money to Frankly, Craig, I don't

262
00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:33,280
Speaker 3: know if they have the money to give you. And

263
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,079
Speaker 3: isn't that really the problem. You can negotiate until you're

264
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,200
Speaker 3: blue in the face and in good faith on your

265
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,400
Speaker 3: side and in theirs, but they just don't have the money.

266
00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 7: Stephen, I think you know we need we need to

267
00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,839
Speaker 7: continue with the ongoing conversations that we're having with both

268
00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 7: the Ministry or Finance, the Reserve Bank, Ministry of Minds

269
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,480
Speaker 7: and others and come up with a sustainable solution which

270
00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:57,439
Speaker 7: supports the actions that the government are taking to improve

271
00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:01,199
Speaker 7: the fiscal situation, but also address the requirements that we

272
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,600
Speaker 7: require as a mining as a minor, particularly our Ownkey

273
00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:05,599
Speaker 7: mine in Zimbabwe.

274
00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,400
Speaker 3: Could it threaten your operations there in any way? And

275
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:12,040
Speaker 3: I imagine when platinum prices are higher, you can keep

276
00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,520
Speaker 3: going for much longer without getting the full amount of

277
00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,120
Speaker 3: money that you're owed from what you produce.

278
00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:22,360
Speaker 7: Certainly, you know, certainly, in the current price environment, we do,

279
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 7: you know, we do generate sufficient cash to keep the

280
00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:29,640
Speaker 7: operation going on, but that's clearly not a sustainable position

281
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:32,760
Speaker 7: and we need to ensure that, you know, the full

282
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,600
Speaker 7: proceeds of what we generate are returned back to Voltaire

283
00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,960
Speaker 7: Platinum so that we can continue to deploy that capital

284
00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,880
Speaker 7: back into the business, both in Zimbabwe and here in

285
00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,920
Speaker 7: South Africa. And that's the position that we've been in

286
00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:48,480
Speaker 7: conversation with the government to rectify.

287
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:52,600
Speaker 3: You had strong results yesterday. Higher platinum price has really helped.

288
00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,240
Speaker 3: Was a very good day for you to release your results. Yes,

289
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,640
Speaker 3: to the Craig, you share price reacted quite nicely. Do

290
00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,480
Speaker 3: you have a sense of what platinum price are going

291
00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:03,760
Speaker 3: to do? Their various factors involved, but probably the key

292
00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,200
Speaker 3: fact for the moment is there's no way for anyone

293
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:10,120
Speaker 3: anywhere to dramatically increase the supply of platinum group metals.

294
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:12,760
Speaker 7: Yes, Steven, so thank you. Yeah. No, it's a really

295
00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,480
Speaker 7: really good result yesterday and really pleased in terms of

296
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,480
Speaker 7: how the business has performed post are and bundling from

297
00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,840
Speaker 7: the Anglo American group. Certainly, I think we you know,

298
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,800
Speaker 7: prior to the emerger, we spent a great deal of

299
00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 7: time explaining sort of the PGM market and some of

300
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 7: the fundamental drivers which have been impacting the market. That being,

301
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,600
Speaker 7: you know, demand is really really good, both from an

302
00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:39,440
Speaker 7: internal combustion or a hybrid engine vehicle perspective. Investment demand

303
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,560
Speaker 7: is high, jewelry demand is high, and industrial demand is good,

304
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 7: which all purports to you know, continued in the continued

305
00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,560
Speaker 7: demand for for PGMs, but as a result of you know,

306
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 7: the low PGM prices in a decade of under investment

307
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:57,720
Speaker 7: by the sector, it's really difficult for for for others

308
00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,080
Speaker 7: to respond and peace to say, Volterra Platinum, we've got

309
00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,760
Speaker 7: a fantastic acid base which is enabled us to continue

310
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,920
Speaker 7: to sustain and maintain our production profile and we continue

311
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,040
Speaker 7: to do that for many years to come, and we're

312
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 7: continuing to invest, particularly out of Mahalaquena operation where we

313
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:18,920
Speaker 7: can actually grow production. But ultimately primary supply is going

314
00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 7: to reduce. Secondary supply is not necessarily coming to the market,

315
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,280
Speaker 7: and that's resulting in deficits in both Utnam palladium and

316
00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:30,000
Speaker 7: rhodium certainly persisting in twenty twenty six and into twenty

317
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 7: twenty seven, and given sort of current demand and critical minerals,

318
00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:39,280
Speaker 7: et cetera, I don't necessarily see that position unfolding anytime soon.

319
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, this is the thing. If you want

320
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 3: more platinum in South Africa, you're probably going to have

321
00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:46,760
Speaker 3: to dig four kilometers for it. Zimbabwe might be a

322
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 3: bit easier, as you say, you have at least one

323
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,880
Speaker 3: mind where you can increase production. It's a very difficult

324
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,040
Speaker 3: thing to do to get more production online that should

325
00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:56,640
Speaker 3: sustain the price for a while.

326
00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 7: Absolutely, certainly price is certainly help, but I think you'd

327
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,640
Speaker 7: have to see sustained higher prices for longer in order

328
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,040
Speaker 7: to encourage new Greenfille investments coming online. But as we

329
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:13,960
Speaker 7: all know, mining projects and danstream processing requires a significant

330
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,080
Speaker 7: amount of capital and also time, and I think that's

331
00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 7: the sort of the key determinant in terms of how

332
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:25,119
Speaker 7: supply would necessarily come to the market. So if do

333
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:29,160
Speaker 7: you think through some that we have underway to sustain production,

334
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 7: probably take about five to eight years before you actually

335
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,119
Speaker 7: see the metal coming to market. So yep, prices are

336
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 7: great for the moment, and they've sitting rallied in the

337
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 7: second half of twenty twenty five. You'd need to see

338
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 7: that continuing for quite some time, and then also have

339
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 7: the patients to see those mining projects come to fruition.

340
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 3: Mining and patients don't they always go to great Yeah,

341
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 3: Craig Miller, thank you so much. Seed voltaira platinum twenty

342
00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:57,119
Speaker 3: five after six The Money Show, the market. Graham Kerner

343
00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 3: of course is at the current perspective joins us now, Graham,

344
00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 3: good evening. I don't know really where to start today.

345
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:07,080
Speaker 3: There's so many different companies, but let's start with Discovery,

346
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,879
Speaker 3: I mean up very strongly. The results were frankly, if

347
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 3: you come to the size of Discovery amazing.

348
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:17,199
Speaker 6: Yeah, good evening, Stephen. I think absolutely everything kind of

349
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:22,360
Speaker 6: seems to be falling into around is what There's been

350
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:24,640
Speaker 6: a loss making bank for a very long time. They're

351
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 6: guiding that they'll make I think about two hundred and

352
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,920
Speaker 6: thirty million, so yeah, that that obviously is no longer

353
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,440
Speaker 6: a detractor, and a lot of the other businesses seem

354
00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 6: to be kicking into gears. So over twenty percent guidance

355
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,159
Speaker 6: on the earnings growth market really liked to cheer up

356
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:42,439
Speaker 6: over seven percent today.

357
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 3: Ned Bank also strongly it's not often that a bank

358
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 3: at that size says they'll have a better than expected

359
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 3: sort of end of their financial year. Certainly really gets

360
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 3: a suggestion that things are going right for them too.

361
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think the if you looked at it at

362
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 6: a of a headline earnings level, not maybe doing what

363
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 6: some of the other banks or but obviously the Eco

364
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 6: Bank sale is sort of unraveling a whole lot of

365
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 6: accounting noise. Yeah, but I mean if you just look

366
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,320
Speaker 6: at that Stephen that it was at about these levels

367
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 6: late last year, so arguably it's somewhat lagged it's peer

368
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,119
Speaker 6: group in the big five banks, and I think that

369
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 6: was the reason that it really popped today. I mean,

370
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 6: all the banks were a little bit better, but I

371
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 6: think I think the market is getting a better idea

372
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 6: of what netbank will look like without the Ecobank. But

373
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,680
Speaker 6: of course, then you know the Africa strategy question Mark

374
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 6: is frankly a big one.

375
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 3: Long term tiger brands. I mean a group that's sort

376
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 3: of reforming itself a little bit. Their sales were up,

377
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,679
Speaker 3: but they're also hit by food price deflation and particularly

378
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 3: in their raw ingredients. That's obviously having a big impact,

379
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,640
Speaker 3: and I think that clearly showed in the way investors responded.

380
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 3: They didn't like it at all.

381
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, but I think you know, you always sort of ask, well,

382
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 6: you know, what do you need to do to satisfy

383
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 6: people like us. I think the market maybe forgot that

384
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:12,440
Speaker 6: that they are fairly Yeah, you know, they're obviously quite

385
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 6: exposed to input prices. And as you're saying, I mean

386
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 6: there was again there was some disposal, some portfolio rationalization,

387
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 6: which you know, muddy the water slightly. But you know,

388
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 6: at a core level you're talking about I think revenue

389
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:25,919
Speaker 6: up one or two percent with a little bit of

390
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 6: price deflation. You know, that's that's the macroeconomic environment. And

391
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 6: Asper was saying earlier, you know it is it's difficult.

392
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 6: Consumers are under pressure, and you know, anybody that's sort

393
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,399
Speaker 6: of in the they want to be funny about it,

394
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 6: but you know, lower down the food chain in terms

395
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 6: of not being able to really drive the margin, maybe

396
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,160
Speaker 6: more food producers and food retailers, it's tough out there.

397
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,719
Speaker 6: You know, you're not getting any any help from from

398
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 6: food inflation. But I think it was more case of

399
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 6: the market that maybe run a little ahead of itself

400
00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,439
Speaker 6: with the with the outlook for Tiger Bred, and I

401
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 6: think that's why it was marked on about six percent today.

402
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 6: But yeah, it's definitely, as rightly said Stevens, rebuilt itself

403
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 6: as sort of you know, dusting itself off and getting

404
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 6: rid of a lot of those legacy issues and focusing

405
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 6: on core core issues, which I think is really really commendable.

406
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 3: Truest and mister Price up strongly today. I mean, mister

407
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 3: Price has had angry shareholders too, but true a sudden

408
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 3: updates and their retail sales seem to be pretty much

409
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 3: the same as last year.

410
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, so then you sort of osk, all, why was

411
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 6: the share up four percent? Yeah, exactly, And I've got

412
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 6: to try and explain it. But I think I think

413
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 6: the whole clothing retail cluster, so as you likely say,

414
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 6: mister Price for Shine Group, even if you want to

415
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 6: take Pep into that, all up sort of three and

416
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 6: a half to four percent. And the best I can

417
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 6: come up with is, you know, the results don't look spectacular,

418
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 6: as you rightly say, you know, sales really relatively flat.

419
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 6: And think in the case of obviously mister Price is

420
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 6: the deal risk in Europe. But I think the market

421
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 6: is just saying, hang on a second, Yeah, we've been

422
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 6: very bearish on these food sorry, on the clothing retailers,

423
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 6: and on eight multiples. Paying you really attractive divinity feels

424
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 6: better than you're getting after tax some cash, so to say, well,

425
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 6: maybe we've been a little bit too bearish. So that's

426
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 6: the best I can come up with. Maybe the market's

427
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 6: just saying, you know, we we've marked these things down

428
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 6: too far, and there's probably some optionality in them.

429
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 3: In video results ound last night, they're quite strong, it

430
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 3: would seem, and yet the market's just not impressed at all.

431
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 3: Last time I checked all the US indices down quite shopply,

432
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 3: but particularly the nasdacks down Yeah, one point three seven

433
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 3: at the moment.

434
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, I suppose the question for in video is when

435
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 6: do you hit peak earnings and what does earnings then

436
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 6: look like a year or two after that. The reality is,

437
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 6: you know, if you look at those high end chips,

438
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 6: you know those order books are sold that well into

439
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 6: the future, so you don't think that there's any sort

440
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 6: of train smash coming if you look at it on fundamentals,

441
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 6: valuations and not demanding our on video. But I do

442
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 6: think the market is finning to just get a little

443
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 6: bit anxious about the you know, we spoke about it

444
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 6: a few weeks ago about these telephone numbers of spending

445
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 6: the AI guys and whether that is maintainable. So I

446
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 6: think it's more case of the market being a little

447
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 6: bit more forward looking and just sort of saying, well,

448
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 6: you know, in video is not going to have you know,

449
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 6: this sort of demand growth forever and one day you

450
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 6: will look at it at the earnings, you know, maybe

451
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 6: resetting thirty percent or for relatively or not a relatively,

452
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 6: they're a very high base. I think that's why that

453
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 6: shares down four percent, probably taking the bulk of the

454
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 6: nastick with it.

455
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 3: Graham Connor, thanks very much, indeed at the kind of

456
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 3: perspective just one six thirty.

457
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 2: Seven o two with Stephen Curtis email him on Stephen

458
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 2: at seven oh two dot co dot.

459
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 3: Z eighteen minutes now to seven. The time when you

460
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 3: look at your day and what you're going to be

461
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:55,120
Speaker 3: spending your working day doing your productive day, how much

462
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 3: time of that are you losing to traffic? And it

463
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: seems to me both Joe Burg and in Cape Town

464
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 3: where I was this morning. Traffic has just exploded since

465
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 3: the start of the year. We'll investigate both the time

466
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 3: lost and the economic cost of all of this in

467
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 3: just a moment with Megan Brewer, An Offense and Medesha.

468
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 3: But first let's just hear from Joe burg amor Romela

469
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: is the breakfast traffic reporter on Radio seven or two.

470
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 3: Good evening to you. Have you noticed a change in

471
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 3: what you're seeing since the start of the year, A.

472
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 8: Very good evening. See well, indeed, we have noticed heavy,

473
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 8: hectic changes on our roads, particularly because of the roadworks

474
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 8: that are taking place on most routes, as well as

475
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 8: the pothole and even wet weather conditions. So unfortunately, the

476
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 8: pothole don't make it easy to travel on our roads,

477
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 8: especially in the peak our traffic volumes. See this is

478
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 8: because of if you bump into a traffic or a

479
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 8: pothole that you aren't usually used to using on that

480
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 8: road and you see a pothole, obviously you're going to

481
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 8: slow down a little bit and that causes more traffic

482
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 8: and more conditions. And also the chances that we are

483
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,919
Speaker 8: seeing this year is the use of ehaling providers. So

484
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 8: if you are going to your office and you decide

485
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:16,439
Speaker 8: to use Ehaling transport, your neighbor decides to do the

486
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 8: same thing you need on that that's five cars on

487
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 8: the roads or even more on the road for one person,

488
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 8: and that also contributes towards heavy traffic volumes on the roads.

489
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 8: And then of course the issues of forty traffic lights.

490
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 8: That is the biggest issue in specifically Joe roads. This

491
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 8: is because the traffic lights take forever to be six

492
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 8: and if the traffic light is not six on a

493
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 8: busy four way stop, definitely that's going to contribute towards

494
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 8: the delays on our roads.

495
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 3: I'm or Romela, thank you very much. Indeed, the breakfast

496
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 3: traffic reporter on radio seven or two when I left

497
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: Cape Town this morning, was an an uber on the

498
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 3: highway to the airport at about six o'clock in the

499
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 3: morning and I could not believe how much traffic there

500
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 3: was coming into the city at that early hour. Africa

501
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 3: Milani is your host on early Breakfast on both seven

502
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 3: or two and five six seven Cape Talking. He drives

503
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 3: against that traffic every morning. Africa Houses, what have you

504
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 3: seen on the roads of Cape Town early in the morning.

505
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 9: Steven I suspect that one of the reasons why I

506
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 9: do work the early hours is so that I'm never

507
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 9: ever sitting in traffic in any way whatsoever. Our station

508
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 9: manager here in Cape Town at Cape Talk lives in

509
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 9: Somerset to west and on a good day she will

510
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 9: drive over forty five fifty minutes perhaps to get to work,

511
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 9: and that often is her leaving ahead of traffic, but

512
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 9: in peak traffic could be up to two and a

513
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 9: half hours to travel the same distance. We have multiple

514
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 9: challenges in Cape Town, a minority of roads to get

515
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 9: into and out of the city center, unlike Johannesburg that

516
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 9: sort of has a sprawling network. Everything descends onto the

517
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 9: CBD of Cape Town if you like. With the major roads.

518
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 9: Of course, the end one day, end two there are three,

519
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 9: Andred becomes a major connecting road between those two national roads,

520
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 9: and then the M three coming from the southern suburbs,

521
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 9: all of it bad. We have a concentration of very

522
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 9: good schools, particularly around the southern suburbs, so anything from

523
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 9: six thirty until about eight to eighty is a mess.

524
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 9: When it comes to Claremont, weinberg Ronaboche and those kinds

525
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 9: of places, we don't have many of the road issues

526
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 9: that I'm always referring to. Kept on roads generally are

527
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 9: well maintained, traffic lights are generally operational. There is some

528
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 9: question around the timing on those traffic lights, whether they

529
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 9: are optimally designed if you like to move traffic along.

530
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 9: And ultimately, stephen cap Town is a very popular destination

531
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,439
Speaker 9: for work and school, so we have a lot of

532
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 9: net in migration, if you like, from surrounding provinces and

533
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 9: in some cases even how Teng. So we see sprawling

534
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 9: communities going up the west coast past Parklands and sand Down,

535
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 9: and I'm not sure whether in our town planning we

536
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 9: are factoring that into the equation enough. In terms of

537
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 9: public transport that is going out there, my city is

538
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 9: going out to I suppose Kaylie Chamcher's plane connecting with

539
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 9: Weinberg and Claermont, but that is going to be years

540
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 9: away before we see relief. The metro rail is now

541
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 9: getting back on board, which means hopefully people will be

542
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 9: getting off their cars and into the train service. But

543
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 9: this beautiful city of ours, doing very well in education,

544
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 9: employment opportunities, and all of that is just overcrowded.

545
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 3: I'm afraid Africa Malani. Thank you very much, indeed your

546
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: host on early Breakfast on this radio station. So that's

547
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 3: what you and I are living for, living through in

548
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 3: the major cities in South Africa. Let's start to now

549
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: get an understanding of why are we living through. Doctor

550
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 3: Meghan Brewer is at the University of Sell and Bosch's

551
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 3: Transport and Logistics department. Megan, good, evening, has something changed

552
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 3: or does the traffic just feel a lot worse?

553
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 10: So I went to have a look at some of

554
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 10: the traffic volumes up in Joeburger. I got some data

555
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 10: from the sun Rall Freeway Network and I just wanted

556
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 10: to have a look at what the annual growth rates were.

557
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 10: So I looked at January in twenty twenty four and

558
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 10: twenty twenty six, and there's been an annual growth rate

559
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 10: of nearly five percent on the end one this is

560
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 10: the section between Bicleu and Ravoonia, so at the end

561
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 10: one wastebound and that is a very high annual growth rate.

562
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 10: We normally on traffic are looking at a growth rate

563
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 10: of between two and three percent per year, so nearly

564
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 10: five percent, it's four point eight three percent. That really

565
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 10: is a very high growth rate. So you do have

566
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 10: a lot more traffic this year than you did last

567
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 10: year in January, January and February also some of the

568
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 10: months with high traffic as well. We tend to see

569
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 10: in South Africa much higher traffic volumes in the summer

570
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 10: months than in the winter months. And this is all

571
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 10: just because of businesses that are busier, people just getting

572
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,719
Speaker 10: on the roads. So yes, there's an enormous growth rate.

573
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 10: You've also got this high summer traffic volume that we've seen.

574
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 3: The enormous growth, I mean, there's been quite a big

575
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 3: increase in the number of cars on our roads, the

576
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 3: more cheaper cars on the roads. Is it as simple

577
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,239
Speaker 3: as saying there's just more traffic, that there's just more

578
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: traffic because there's more cars, or is something going on

579
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 3: with the road network that's making it worse too.

580
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 10: I can't really answer that question, but yes, there are

581
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 10: definitely more cars. And I think what's happening is that

582
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 10: in South Africa, the way that we design a lot

583
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 10: of our local areas is telling people that if you

584
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 10: want to be a successful, middle class working citizen, you

585
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 10: need to own a car, and so a lot of

586
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 10: people are moving away from public transport. We've been seeing

587
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 10: that for a couple of years now, just with the

588
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 10: modal shift that all of our public transport modes have

589
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 10: got decreasing numbers of people using it, or not maybe decreasing,

590
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 10: but just not increasing at the rate that we see

591
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 10: our private vehicle numbers rising. So there is a lot

592
00:30:55,760 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 10: more private vehicle ownership. And obviously that's a good thing

593
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 10: because it means that the economy is strengthening. But yes,

594
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 10: it does also mean that there's a lot more traffic.

595
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 10: And what we should be seeing is that business traffic,

596
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 10: traffic to work. There should be a much higher shift

597
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 10: towards a public transport, which we are not finding.

598
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 3: The seasonality of it, and I get particularly both Joeburg

599
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 3: and Cape Town have quite high levels of seasonality in

600
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 3: terms of when the sun comes up. In joe Burg.

601
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 3: Obviously it's much colder. In Cape Town it rains in

602
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 3: the middle of winter, but it does seem and this

603
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 3: is I say the words seem, because I don't have

604
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 3: objective facts on this, Megan, but January and February, particularly

605
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 3: in joe Burg, seem to be the worst months. And

606
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 3: I wonder if it's because everyone's going to school at

607
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 3: the same time everyone's going to work at the same time,

608
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 3: everyone's still enthusiastic and going to gym. And the moment

609
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 3: you have the first set of school holidays, as soon

610
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 3: as you take you know, five percent off the roads,

611
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 3: things seem to change.

612
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:58,959
Speaker 10: Yeah, I don't think it's five per scenes. I think

613
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 10: we've seen a lot of bigger changes when you've got

614
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 10: holiday periods. I mean you can have up to sort

615
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 10: of twenty five percent less traffic. So I think you

616
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 10: quite right. What we find in term times that people

617
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 10: drop their kids off at school and then they go

618
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 10: to work, so they are you're funneling a lot of

619
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 10: people into traveling all at the same time. That is

620
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 10: very true, whereas there's more flexibility in holiday times. I

621
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 10: think maybe people are you know, potentially working from home

622
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 10: or or just are taking holidays. And if you take

623
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 10: you know, even a tenth of the workforce who are

624
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 10: taking holidays you know at different times during a three

625
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 10: weeks school holiday for example in June, that's going to

626
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 10: have a very big impact on the traffic. So yees,

627
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 10: during school holidays there's always a lot less traffic on

628
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 10: the road. But in general what we see in winter

629
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 10: months is about fifteen percent less traffic on our roads

630
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 10: in South Africa in most cities than what you've got

631
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 10: during the summer months. So yes, you do have higher

632
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 10: traffic volumes in the January Sevruary period less.

633
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 3: Doctor Megan Burke, thanks very much. Indeed, at University of

634
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 3: set and Bosh the transport and logistics up into a

635
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 3: year with the money show just that deep dive into

636
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 3: the impact traffic is having on us at statementutes now

637
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: to seven the time off and so Madisha is an

638
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: independent transport economist or fans good evening, good to chat again,

639
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 3: are there any estimates for how much time people in

640
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 3: Cape Town and Jerburg are spending in traffic? I mean,

641
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 3: how much of our lives are we losing to being

642
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 3: stuck in a car?

643
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 6: Thank you for having me at real big pleasure and privilege.

644
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 6: So the most recent INRIX report, which looks like twenty

645
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 6: twenty five data, suggest that Cape Town is ranking sixth

646
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 6: in the world in terms of traffic congestion. That's ninety

647
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 6: six hours lost per year. It sounds like very very

648
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 6: little until you start adding those up. Johannesburg is at

649
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 6: twenty nine at fifty nine hours, Pretoria at ninety two

650
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 6: ninety second and the rest that we're basically under two

651
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 6: hundred and fifteen our major cities, and that's what thirty

652
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 6: three hours lost. If we try and pull this together

653
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 6: and try to, for example, estimate the total amount of

654
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 6: time that people indeed lose stuck in traffic, it is

655
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 6: roughly around two hundred and sixty turing sixty to three

656
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 6: hundred and thirty work days lost the right. So it

657
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 6: just depends if effecting things like leave and so on.

658
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 6: So it's actually quite quite a lot of time. When

659
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 6: you compound that with the number of drivers, number of

660
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 6: vehicles in all Africa, that's about eight point six million

661
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 6: drivers will see five point six, you know, because you

662
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 6: don't always assume that everybody drives every day, And then

663
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 6: as an absolute number, you'd be looking at at least

664
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 6: at sixty five billion ran per year lost in traffic.

665
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 6: And if you accumulate that over forty years, say you

666
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 6: keep driving from age twenty five up to you know,

667
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 6: age sixty five, for example, that's two point eight trillion.

668
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 6: So it's quite a lot of money over time, and

669
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 6: also on an annual basis, and let's just commute.

670
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 3: Sure, I mean an economic impact. I suppose doesn't stop

671
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 3: there because you lose time, you lose meetings, meeting get canceled,

672
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 3: and some people won't go to events at certain times.

673
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,879
Speaker 3: I mean, the true cost must be even higher than

674
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 3: that's staggering them out of.

675
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 6: Course, of course, if you start factoring in things like

676
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 6: the public transport operators, so they are also stuck in

677
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 6: traffic because we don't have you know, dedicated lanes everywhere, right,

678
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 6: So then you add things like the freight logistics sector.

679
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 6: I mean some estimates lean up to three hundred million,

680
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 6: I mean sure billion around a year in lost value.

681
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 6: So that's delays in your food, that's delays and supplies,

682
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 6: that shift in supply chains, and as you put it,

683
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 6: worth the meetings, potentially losing contractual obligations right or missing

684
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 6: contractual opplications. So it is quite a significant impact that

685
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 6: does need a lot of attention.

686
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 3: Indeed, there have been other cities in other parts of

687
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,280
Speaker 3: the world that have had big traffic problems in the past.

688
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 3: Are there ways to reduce traffic to sort all of

689
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 3: this out? And I mean improving public transports a major

690
00:35:58,440 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 3: part of that.

691
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 6: Of course, of course, So it always depends on the

692
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 6: density of a city. So to doctor Bruller's point, if

693
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 6: you an even Africa's comment right, if you think about

694
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 6: Cape Town, high density city, everybody goes there. What the

695
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 6: city really needs is to leverage its railway corridors make

696
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 6: sure people can actually use it. But to do that,

697
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 6: the railway corridor has to be super competitive, and that

698
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 6: means they need to devolve the function, which in all

699
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 6: those three steps requires a lot of institutional change, and

700
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 6: the city seems to be prepared to do so to

701
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 6: have their own maybe Cape Town train, I don't suppose,

702
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 6: but it's a very competitive and compelling exercise to try

703
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 6: and move people from their cars to public transport, especially

704
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 6: fixed route public transport. So a city like that needs

705
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 6: that kind of work. A city like Johannesburg, however, is

706
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 6: very very dispersed, and the land news makeup requires a

707
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 6: very different type of thinking. So when people talk about

708
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 6: how trains or congestion pricing interventions to force people to

709
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 6: use their cars a lot less, they have different implications

710
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 6: in a place like Johannesburg versus a place like to.

711
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 3: Come offends and Medsha really do appreciate the time, thank

712
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 3: you very much. Indeed. Okay, so you've heard from Amamorella Africa, Milani,

713
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 3: doctor Meghan Brewer and Offense and Medesha. Let's now hear

714
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 3: your stories that have come through on seven two seven

715
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 3: two one seven o two.

716
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 11: Hi Steven, you're talking about traffic, and I wanted to

717
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 11: just throw in a pointer. It is very clear I'm

718
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 11: in Capitown that we've reached some sort of traffic density

719
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 11: threshold and traffic is now pretty much snoled up every morning.

720
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 11: Travel times have increased exponentially. I think it's I don't

721
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 11: have real data, butt it by by anecdotal experiences that

722
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 11: it's becoming primitively complicated to get to places, so much

723
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 11: so that you know, I'm considering work options which are

724
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 11: just not viable anymore because of the multi clim I

725
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 11: have to spend in traffic. And I really think it's

726
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 11: it's going to have an effect on decision making around

727
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 11: where how people work. But we certainly have rich the

728
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 11: threshold where traffic is now becoming a really unmanaged problem.

729
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 12: Thank you, Hi.

730
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 3: Stephen Eugene from sentence.

731
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 13: The worst I've seen this year is on the R

732
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 13: fifty five just before Kylamkonna. This road repairs being undertaken

733
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 13: for a little stretch probably ten meters or so that

734
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 13: has sunk and needs repair. But it's taken almost four

735
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 13: weeks now for the guys to prepare the road. But

736
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:38,439
Speaker 13: what surprised me the most the guys are working off

737
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 13: literally a bucky. They have a bucky with with a

738
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 13: trailer with a jojo tank of water trying to compact

739
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 13: that that you know, that section of the road so

740
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 13: and the traffic is backed up on both ways.

741
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 3: It's a bottleneck.

742
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 13: That's really horrendous. But the point I'm trying to make

743
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 13: is there's no urgent you to fix it, and it's

744
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 13: probably an issue to someone that doesn't have the equipment

745
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:07,879
Speaker 13: or was incapable of doing a job.

746
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 14: That the worst traffic by far this year in Cape

747
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:19,919
Speaker 14: Town was during the soda and the mining and double

748
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:25,479
Speaker 14: was on and it's be holiday, four foreigners in Cape Town.

749
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 14: Cape is captn is fall there. Cape to On cannot

750
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 14: handle and then they have these two events in the

751
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 14: same week doing the same thing. It was it just

752
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 14: everything was gridlocked.

753
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 15: It was it was chaos and Cape to like it

754
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 15: literally was gridlocked in a five kilometer radius from of

755
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 15: of Cape Toon.

756
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 3: It was it was insane. Cap is CAPTN is a

757
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 3: bit screwed.

758
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 14: I don't know what the solution is.

759
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 3: Maybe that's the best way to In this segment on

760
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 3: what do we do? How do we solve a problem

761
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 3: like traffic? I'm sorry to say this, but I don't

762
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:06,240
Speaker 3: know if there is a solution.

763
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 2: And now The Money Show with Stephen.

764
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,439
Speaker 3: Credits on seven O two.

765
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 2: Let's walk the All.

766
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 3: The Money Show with Stephen Curtius is brought to you

767
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 3: by ABS of Corporate and Investment Banking, proud sponsor of

768
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 3: the LMA ICMA Loan and Capital Markets Africa Summitt twenty

769
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,760
Speaker 3: twenty six, ABS as a registered FSP. At nine minutes

770
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 3: after seven the time plenty to come. We'll talk to

771
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 3: Microsoft in just a moment about a new way in

772
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 3: which they're trying to help people in the SMME sector.

773
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 3: But plenty to come also an investment school talking of

774
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 3: AI agents. We're going to be talking about how AI

775
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 3: is changing the way in which we invest. And he

776
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 3: might have thought a few years ago that using some

777
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,840
Speaker 3: of the technical tools that are available to help you

778
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 3: trade more quickly, to help you trade more efficiently, to

779
00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 3: help you trade in better ways, is actually impossible for

780
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 3: an individual to get that's all changing and that will

781
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,800
Speaker 3: be your focus in investment school tonight. So really looking

782
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 3: forward to speaking to doctor Mussulma Wandler, a differential capital

783
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 3: and of governor, the portfolio manager at Rand Swiss. Good evening,

784
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 3: It's ten minutes after seven.

785
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: The Money Show with Stephen Crutis live on ninety two

786
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:24,439
Speaker 1: point seven and one six FM, streaming on the Prime

787
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 1: Media Plus.

788
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 2: Snap and DStv channel eight five six. The Money Show

789
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 2: Take Thursday.

790
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 3: Best Tech Feature with Stephen Crotis has brought to you

791
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 3: by Microsoft Empowering Essay through the Mission Next Equity Equivalent

792
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 3: Investment program. Well Microsoft announcing it will give one point

793
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 3: three billion Rand helping black own small and medium enterprises

794
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 3: part of that Mission Next series and Lebochang Lovorna is

795
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 3: the broad based Black economic executive at Microsoft South Africa. Lebochang,

796
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us in Good evening. What

797
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 3: support are you giving these firms? How's this all going

798
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 3: to work?

799
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 16: Good evening, Stephen, thanks for having me. The support we're

800
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 16: giving the firms is specifically around business development, but focusing

801
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:12,759
Speaker 16: primarily on digital enablement, so helping them to understand the

802
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 16: digital tools available to them and walking the journey and

803
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 16: making it practical for them and their businesses in order

804
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 16: to drive scale.

805
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 3: I mean, you've been working with smaller firms for quite

806
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:25,479
Speaker 3: a while. There must be so many lessons you've learned

807
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 3: by this point to try and help smaller entities scale up.

808
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 16: Absolutely, and one of the biggest ones that we've applied

809
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 16: to the Equity Equivalent Investment Program, which is the Mission

810
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 16: Next program, is that it's not a one size fits

811
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:45,360
Speaker 16: all approach when it comes to supporting smemes, which is

812
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 16: why our program is very bespoke, looking at exactly where

813
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 16: the business is and what they need specifically for their

814
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 16: business and what their next is so that we can

815
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 16: support them to take that very crucial next step to scaling.

816
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:02,319
Speaker 3: I mean, you've got to do some education as well,

817
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 3: so you have to go and speak to the smmes.

818
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,880
Speaker 3: You have to go and see where they are. You

819
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 3: have to sort of help them in that way. I

820
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:12,360
Speaker 3: mean that must be a really interesting experience. But it

821
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: must also mean that you're able to add some I

822
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 3: suppose almost power to what they're trying to do.

823
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 16: Absolutely, and it does allow for some co creation in

824
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 16: a way with regards to making the program work. So

825
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 16: we're going to have quite a few cohorts because this

826
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 16: is a ten year investment, so each cohort will help

827
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 16: us learn. And we're working with our partners as well,

828
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 16: our implementation partners, our government partners, other corporate essay participants

829
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 16: just to ensure that we are driving the right messaging,

830
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 16: including being on shows less atters this one, and attracting

831
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 16: the right SMEs into the program.

832
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:56,279
Speaker 3: A lot of talk about the township economy and businesses there,

833
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,800
Speaker 3: and you talk about township ecosystem empowerment. How do you

834
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 3: see your role in that ecosystem? I mean, and then

835
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 3: this is obvious, but if we could really sort out

836
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 3: scale there, we could make all of that work, perhaps

837
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,359
Speaker 3: in a more efficient way that I mean, we could

838
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 3: literally change the faces of our economy and probably a generation.

839
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 16: Absolutely, And we have incorporated the township economy into our

840
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 16: equity equivalent investment program and we're doing that through the

841
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:28,319
Speaker 16: Township Challenge, and that's where we will be challenging the

842
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 16: tech startups that are in our program to come up

843
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 16: with a solution that could that could be relevant to

844
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 16: township businesses to help them become regional hubs for economics

845
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 16: and logistics. The idea is not to take from the township,

846
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 16: but to invest within the township and ensure that the

847
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 16: businesses that are there are able to scale beyond within

848
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 16: the township and beyond.

849
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 3: How do businesses get involved? I mean, there'll be people

850
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 3: listening to you now thinking I'm not going to wait

851
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,440
Speaker 3: for Leboguang to come and find me. I'm going to

852
00:44:56,440 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 3: go and find her. How do you make that work?

853
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 16: And they should definitely come and find us. And they

854
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 16: can find us by going to the Microsoft South Africa

855
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 16: websites on their browser and searching for EEIP on the

856
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 16: Microsoft South Africa website and the first link that will

857
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 16: come up will be the link to our EP program

858
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 16: and they can navigate to the right area for them

859
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:22,320
Speaker 16: to apply.

860
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 3: There's so many things changing at the moment, and I mean,

861
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,400
Speaker 3: you know, we worry about sort of Fourth Industrial Revolution skills.

862
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 3: Are we falling behind? We are not sure what AI

863
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 3: has in store for us. But I sometimes think the

864
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 3: right idea doesn't the right idea with the right kind

865
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 3: of support. It matters far less now where that idea

866
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 3: has had than it used to. There used to be

867
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 3: a time when you know, only in Silicon Valley in

868
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 3: San Francisco. Could you make something work? I don't think

869
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 3: the world is like that anymore. I mean their potential

870
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 3: gold mines in this country frankly, with the right support.

871
00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 16: Absolutely, And that's why enablement is central to Microsoft's mission

872
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 16: as well as this program, because the idea is that

873
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 16: we have to focus on capability before complexity. So there

874
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 16: are many businesses that could do amazing things, but they

875
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 16: just need to use technology to unlock the growth. But

876
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 16: they need to understand it in order for it to

877
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 16: be used meaningfully. And that's where we're come in to

878
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 16: make sure that we can build entrepreneurs confidence around these

879
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 16: technologies and help them to apply it in a way

880
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 16: that generally improves whatever concept they're working on or their

881
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 16: productivity and decision making within their business.

882
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 3: Lebolhunk, thank you so much. Lebohang Lovno is the broad

883
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 3: based Black Economic Empowerment Executive at Microsoft South Africa. This

884
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 3: tech feature with Stephen Curtis was brought to you by

885
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 3: Microsoft Empowering Say through the Mission Next Equity Equivalent Investment program.

886
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 3: Microsoft South Africa is launched Mission Next high Impact Equity

887
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:58,360
Speaker 3: Equivalent Investment program, calling on South Africa's most ambitious future

888
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 3: really black owned smmes to own their next phase of growth.

889
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 3: Mission Next forms part of Microsoft's commitments to empower establish

890
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:10,799
Speaker 3: black owned businesses with the tools, skills, and global tier

891
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 3: technology required for rapid scaling.

892
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 1: The Lanely Show with Stephen Kruti's Lion on ninety two

893
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: point seven and one six FM streaming on the Prime

894
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 1: Media Plus.

895
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 2: Tap and TSTV channel eight five six.

896
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 3: We'll just sort of reflecting a little bit on the

897
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 3: conversations around traffic. And there are very few people whom

898
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 3: traffic does not touch in some way, even if you

899
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 3: are and they're very few people maybe in certain parts

900
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 3: of Cape Town, Cork Bay, for example, maybe in parts

901
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 3: of Johannesburg Parkhurst, maybe in some parts of Soweto or

902
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 3: perhaps Cutler Hong where very few people are able to

903
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 3: walk everywhere. You know, you walk to the shop, you

904
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 3: walk there, you walk back, you walk to whatever it

905
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 3: is the moment you are working in most places you

906
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,800
Speaker 3: need to move around on the roads. Affects the community

907
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 3: around you. And in some cases, you know, you heard

908
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 3: a voice note from someone who said he's looking at

909
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 3: changing his job. I mean people move because of issues

910
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 3: around traffic. They just move, they go somewhere else. I

911
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:15,880
Speaker 3: realized that it is in the nature of our cities

912
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,399
Speaker 3: that they're quite difficult to change. So if you look

913
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 3: at the way Cape Town was sort of built pre cars,

914
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 3: and you look at joe Burg, if you go to

915
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 3: Los Angeles, have only been there once. But if you

916
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:28,439
Speaker 3: go there and you come to Joburg and people who've

917
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 3: lived in LA have come to me landed and on

918
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,319
Speaker 3: the way, you know, out of the airport said of

919
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 3: joe Burg, they feel at home. That's because it's a

920
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 3: car city, and so's Los Angeles, and that's one of

921
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,320
Speaker 3: the big differences. But the whole of karting in a

922
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 3: way is kind of created for cars. So that tells

923
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 3: you how those cities are designed. What I don't see

924
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 3: any conversation about in South Africa is a kind of

925
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 3: post car city. I just don't see that, and I

926
00:48:55,640 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 3: don't think anyone anywhere is seeing it like that. I

927
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 3: wonder if maybe that's our detriment to postcar city. Did

928
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 3: a thing such a thing ever exists in South Africa?

929
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 3: Just going twenty minutes now after seven the.

930
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 2: Money showed Small Business Focus.

931
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 3: Small Business Focus is brought to you by Capy tech

932
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 3: startup or scale up with Caby Tech. The Business Bank

933
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 3: for Everyone will important announcements for smaller firms in the

934
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:25,240
Speaker 3: budget yesterday, particularly around the that threshold and capital gains

935
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,720
Speaker 3: taxes on selling a business. Daniel Hatfield is the CEO

936
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 3: at Edge Growth. Daniel good Evening the move in the

937
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:34,760
Speaker 3: VAT registration threshold, so it's from one million round suddenly

938
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 3: to two point three million round. How important is that

939
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 3: for smaller firms?

940
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 12: So Good Evening, next Stephen and Good Evening listeners.

941
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 17: Look, I think that the that threshold will make a

942
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 17: meaningful difference, particularly for smaller businesses. I hate to say it,

943
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 17: but for a lot of businesses that is something which

944
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 17: they use to fund themselves from.

945
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:56,439
Speaker 12: Month to month.

946
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 17: And the fact that this is now extended just means

947
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:03,000
Speaker 17: that there are a number of businesses that not only

948
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 17: don't have to registerial VAT, which we all know, it's

949
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 17: not only about the additional money, it's also about the

950
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:12,240
Speaker 17: friction that it creates around all the extra compliance burden

951
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 17: and the fact that you know you're having to run

952
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 17: a whole different process in your business which consumes very

953
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 17: scarce resources. So I think this is a positive move

954
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:26,399
Speaker 17: and you know, I think it's definitely indicative of what

955
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 17: governments are trying to do in the small business landscape.

956
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 3: I mean I also felt with this change, this should

957
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:35,880
Speaker 3: have happened years ago. I mean when we asked the

958
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 3: Director General of the National Treasury this last night, and

959
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 3: basically this is something that should have been happening incrementally

960
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 3: a year after year.

961
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 17: Yeah, look, I think that, you know, from a tax

962
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 17: burden point of view, it's definitely a good place to start, Stephen.

963
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:53,960
Speaker 17: As you know, I think there are a lot of

964
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 17: different constraints that small businesses face, and so the work

965
00:50:58,600 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 17: that is.

966
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 12: Being done in the access to finance pillar is key

967
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 12: and be interesting to talk to you a little bit

968
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 12: more about that.

969
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 17: The access to markets pillar is also key, and then

970
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 17: just reducing friction for small businesses is another thing which

971
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 17: we're doing lots of work with government and also with

972
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:18,759
Speaker 17: the private sector to try and move the needle there.

973
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 12: So, yes, this should have been done many years ago.

974
00:51:22,120 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 12: It's certainly not the only thing that needs to be done.

975
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 17: But I am seeing that for the first time in

976
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 17: a while, small businesses are getting some talwins.

977
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 3: I mean, the capital gains relief for someone's spilling a

978
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 3: fall selling a smaller firm and it changes too Interestingly,

979
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 3: you have to be fifty five, I think. I mean,

980
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,280
Speaker 3: is that kind of thing going to stimulate much activity?

981
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 3: Is it going to make someone sell a business or

982
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 3: give it to a new, energetic, younger than fifty five owner.

983
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 3: Then maybe it would have before.

984
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 12: I'm not sure this is so much about business stimulus.

985
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 17: I think in many ways it's trying to encourage, you know,

986
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 17: a different way of creating an awareness for savings and justify.

987
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 12: Your passing over potential to new owners.

988
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 17: I think that this is a smaller indication of what

989
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 17: we're trying to do in the SAM landscape. For me,

990
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 17: this wouldn't be a big one that I'd be looking

991
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:26,320
Speaker 17: at in terms of changing the behavior of small businesses.

992
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 17: And to be honest, I'm not sure whether the fifty

993
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 17: five threshold is meaningful. I mean, you would want business

994
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 17: mobility a lot earlier than a certain age dictator threshold.

995
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 3: I mean, frankly, I don't see the link between age

996
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:43,919
Speaker 3: and whether a business should be sold. But there must

997
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 3: be some idea somewhere. The government support programs for small

998
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 3: business I mean, do you see much changing there? And

999
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 3: there's a conversation we should have about the small business

1000
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 3: development industry. I'm going to get to that in a sect,

1001
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 3: but I mean the way that the budget talks about

1002
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 3: that and the way that government says it's supporting small businesses.

1003
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: In some ways it tries very hard, but in other

1004
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 3: ways it seems that there's always seems to be some

1005
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:08,360
Speaker 3: sort of problem or capacity issue or something.

1006
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:12,800
Speaker 12: Yeah.

1007
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:15,399
Speaker 17: I think that there's a lot of good intent when

1008
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 17: it comes to what government trying to do around small businesses.

1009
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 12: I ask the question, you know where to start?

1010
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 17: And you know, I think that often when we are

1011
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:26,719
Speaker 17: doing the work that we do as small businesses, it

1012
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 17: feels like the best thing that government can do as

1013
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 17: a first step is get the basics right.

1014
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:35,360
Speaker 12: I think we all agree about that.

1015
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 17: I mean, when we talk about manufacturing, businesses have steady power,

1016
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 17: have great water supply, you know, those sort of things

1017
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 17: are important, and then from a legislation point of view,

1018
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:49,320
Speaker 17: working towards reducing the friction. So I think that introduction

1019
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 17: is a sign of them leaning in as far as

1020
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:57,440
Speaker 17: that's concerned. The Startup Acts another bit of legislation around that,

1021
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,160
Speaker 17: and so I feel like to the extent.

1022
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 12: That can make life easier.

1023
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 17: I'll say it again for a small business when you

1024
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:09,479
Speaker 17: give them additional compliance burden. It's not that this goes

1025
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,959
Speaker 17: to a compliance department. This is another thing which the CEO does,

1026
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:17,760
Speaker 17: which means it's taking away bandwidth to be selling, be delivering,

1027
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 17: be creating value. So for me, that's where the focus

1028
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:21,400
Speaker 17: needs to be.

1029
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,839
Speaker 3: It's been interesting watching the Business Registration Act, the new

1030
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 3: act that's supposed to come through and you have we

1031
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 3: spoke to the Small Business Development Minister said into Bennie

1032
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 3: Abraham's about a month ago now she said it'll make

1033
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,399
Speaker 3: things easier for small business. That I have to say,

1034
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:39,120
Speaker 3: Business Unity South Africa say it's going to make life

1035
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 3: harder for all business. In fact, the President then said

1036
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 3: in his Stead of the Nation address, we are going

1037
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:48,359
Speaker 3: to take into account the comments of businesses who tell

1038
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:51,160
Speaker 3: us that this is going to be too difficult, and

1039
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 3: we will make those changes. What I'm trying to get to,

1040
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 3: I suppose, is do you get a sense that government

1041
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 3: people in government, the people who sort of make these

1042
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 3: decisions and are supposed to set these tailwinds going, that

1043
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:09,600
Speaker 3: they rarely understand what small business owners are actually dealing with.

1044
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 3: Do you think there is that sort of sense that frankly, Daniel,

1045
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 3: they get it.

1046
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:20,760
Speaker 12: Yeah, look a difficult question to answer.

1047
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 17: I mean in that I do think in pockets, there's

1048
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 17: certainly are people who have walked this journey themselves, and

1049
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:31,240
Speaker 17: you know, they're part of driving the changes. But most often,

1050
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 17: in our experience, the people that you're wanting to be

1051
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 17: leaning on when you're making these legislative changes are the

1052
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 17: people who have actually got their hands dirty in the

1053
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 17: entrepreneurial landscape. So when you're talking about, you know, what

1054
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:50,839
Speaker 17: sort of funding is necessary to catalyze businesses, you know,

1055
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 17: as an example, you know, the concept of of rate

1056
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 17: interest rates often is where people lead with when it

1057
00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:00,879
Speaker 17: comes to funding. Our experience is that it's not the rate,

1058
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 17: it's the access to capital on the right terms. So

1059
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 17: the fact that a business can get capital, it can

1060
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 17: be patient, it's going to have repayment holidays, it can

1061
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:13,920
Speaker 17: be a certain type of instrument that works for them,

1062
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:16,440
Speaker 17: and in that stage of their business, that's where I

1063
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 17: feel like the real value gets unlocked. And unfortunately, going

1064
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 17: back to your question, I often wonder whether the people

1065
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:25,640
Speaker 17: that are actually writing these have been in the shoes

1066
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 17: of the entrepreneur and you know, so that's where this

1067
00:56:29,040 --> 00:56:32,799
Speaker 17: public private partnership thing comes in. And you know we're

1068
00:56:32,840 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 17: seeing certainly in our space. You know where corporates is

1069
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 17: an example. Have been working with implementation partners for a

1070
00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 17: number of years and trying to refine how.

1071
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 12: Where they support businesses. That's where you start to see

1072
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 12: the magic happen.

1073
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 3: Daniel, thanks very much, indeed, Daniel Hatfield, the CEO at

1074
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 3: Edge Growth, The Money Show Investment School twenty three minutes

1075
00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:57,800
Speaker 3: now to eight the time, Well talking tonight on Investment

1076
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 3: School about AI. I realized you mentioned AI once or

1077
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,799
Speaker 3: twice in a school. This time is different. We're talking

1078
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 3: about how you would use artificial intelligence to trade better,

1079
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:11,720
Speaker 3: to put it another way, could AI actually democratize trading?

1080
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:14,800
Speaker 3: There was a time when really to compete in investing

1081
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 3: you needed to employ a huge number of people, know

1082
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:19,920
Speaker 3: a huge number of facts, be able to spot trends.

1083
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:22,120
Speaker 3: AI might be able to do some of that for you,

1084
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:24,960
Speaker 3: and maybe you'd compete with some of the bigger firms.

1085
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 3: Well tonight, Doctor muse Marwandler is the co chief investment

1086
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 3: officer at Differential Capital and Vivgarvind is portfolio manager at

1087
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:35,360
Speaker 3: randswist gents, thanks very much indeed for coming and really

1088
00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 3: do appreciate it. All right, Musa, let me start with you.

1089
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 3: Investing is all about making decisions, and you've generally got

1090
00:57:43,240 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 3: a spread of decisions that you can make. The alternatives

1091
00:57:45,920 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 3: are in front of you. You just go to the

1092
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:49,320
Speaker 3: JC and look or whatever it is that you're doing.

1093
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 3: And so it would make sense to me then, and

1094
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:53,960
Speaker 3: it's about numbers, and it would make sense to me

1095
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 3: then that AI would be pretty helpful with making those

1096
00:57:57,160 --> 00:57:59,840
Speaker 3: decisions and spotting trends. Yeah, precisely.

1097
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 18: So AI has always been used for the past almost

1098
00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 18: thirty years in different forms. So the older version is

1099
00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:11,320
Speaker 18: what you would call specialized forms of AI. So these

1100
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,320
Speaker 18: are you know, models that you use to figure out

1101
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 18: the winners and losers, so signals in the market that

1102
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 18: you know, these stocks are likely to do well, these

1103
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 18: are likely to do poorly, or even baskets of stocks,

1104
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:26,000
Speaker 18: so stocks that tend to move together but have dislocated,

1105
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 18: so things like that. So that's one of the uses

1106
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 18: of AI. Some of the other more advanced uses we've

1107
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:34,160
Speaker 18: seen in the recent past, so let's say over the

1108
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 18: past fifteen or so years, is within the context of

1109
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 18: alternative data and the likes so things like scanning you know,

1110
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 18: car parks to figure out how many people are visiting

1111
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 18: a retailer. So there are very sophisticated uses in that regard.

1112
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:51,520
Speaker 18: More recently, you then have the likes of generative AI

1113
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:53,959
Speaker 18: and agentic workflows.

1114
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:56,360
Speaker 3: In this case, you're using AI to.

1115
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 18: Help you figure out what's happening within a company and

1116
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 18: you know, get a a tempo of what's happening on

1117
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 18: the overall market. So really read the news, read the

1118
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 18: financial statements, just you know, to get up to speed

1119
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:10,040
Speaker 18: with news fly. And I think that's the bulk of

1120
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 18: the use today of you know, most of the AI

1121
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:14,320
Speaker 18: is generative AI within finance.

1122
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 3: How I mean, is everybody using this as everyone who's

1123
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:23,640
Speaker 3: professional using this? Is? Are some people specializing and using

1124
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:26,160
Speaker 3: it while others are still keeping that thing what do

1125
00:59:26,200 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 3: we call it? The human brain? Look?

1126
00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 19: I mean the thing is that I know I do

1127
00:59:30,200 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 19: whenever a sense and ausment comes out and it's too long,

1128
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 19: I just asked for somebody sure if you read it,

1129
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 19: And that's something that's been done also for news events,

1130
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 19: et cetera. I do think one thing to be understand

1131
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 19: is that I think the upper end of these AI

1132
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 19: systems are something that like the retail investor is not touching.

1133
00:59:49,880 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 19: I mean, remember deep Seek was created by a hedge fund. Yeah,

1134
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:55,800
Speaker 19: the Chinese would say, you know, I'm possibly not entirely

1135
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:57,280
Speaker 19: drive the hedge fund. But the reason that they were

1136
00:59:57,320 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 19: able to do it is because they had a hedge

1137
00:59:58,600 --> 01:00:00,440
Speaker 19: fund that was doing a lot of you know, AI

1138
01:00:00,480 --> 01:00:03,440
Speaker 19: research in the background. I do think that there's going

1139
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:05,600
Speaker 19: to be in a kind of a bifurcation. So yes,

1140
01:00:05,760 --> 01:00:07,400
Speaker 19: you will be better, but the guys that have the

1141
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 19: money and have the access to the data will be

1142
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 19: even better than you. What it will do, I think

1143
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:15,040
Speaker 19: primarily is it's going to get the retail investor. What

1144
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 19: it's going to do is that it's basically allow them

1145
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 19: to cut a lot of the bureaucracy. I think it's

1146
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 19: going to let them basically invest in a more efficient way,

1147
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 19: not be as stuck as sticking into some of the

1148
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:29,080
Speaker 19: investment products they've been in the past. Especially with the

1149
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:31,840
Speaker 19: gentic AI, I think that, you know, it's going to

1150
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:34,240
Speaker 19: be a much more trivial task to just say, go

1151
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 19: through my portfolio and make sure that I'm not big

1152
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:39,000
Speaker 19: overcharged for anything. Go through a portfolio and make sure

1153
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 19: that it's balanced or et cetera, et cetera. It's always

1154
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:44,040
Speaker 19: achieving my goals. And I think that's where it's really

1155
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 19: going to hit. In terms of basically individuals trying to

1156
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:48,720
Speaker 19: beat the market, I don't think that's going to be possible.

1157
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 19: I think the big guys are just going to have

1158
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 19: too much firepower behind them in terms of both access

1159
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 19: to data like you said, you know, itto data, as

1160
01:00:57,000 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 19: well as just pure computing power to basically be competed against.

1161
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 19: Where's the fun in that? I mean, they're all going

1162
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:05,560
Speaker 19: to just start right, That's it. Investment school for humans

1163
01:01:05,600 --> 01:01:06,920
Speaker 19: can be a class of two.

1164
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 3: Musa. So just to understand when at the moment the

1165
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 3: sort of state of the art, are people in South

1166
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 3: Africa like yourselfs making investment decisions just using AI to

1167
01:01:19,640 --> 01:01:23,480
Speaker 3: help inform the decision, whereas AI making the decision and

1168
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:24,520
Speaker 3: making the trade.

1169
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 18: Yes, So in terms of generative AI, I think we're

1170
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 18: not quite there yet. I've really so. There are a

1171
01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:35,160
Speaker 18: few famous examples globally. So a famous hedge fund called

1172
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 18: Bridgewater Associates has developed an agentic you know analyst or

1173
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 18: AI analyst that sits alongside other analysts making you know,

1174
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 18: making recommendations and so.

1175
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 3: On in great office, I imagine.

1176
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 18: So now the problem though is when it comes to

1177
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 18: making the final you know, pulling the final trigger, you

1178
01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:56,160
Speaker 18: still have to you know, account for some of the

1179
01:01:56,200 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 18: things like hallucination. Although it's a much you know, smaller

1180
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:03,360
Speaker 18: problem today, but that's still a big problem in.

1181
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 3: Terms of the other types of AI.

1182
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:08,360
Speaker 18: So there's you know, predictive AI and specialized AI that

1183
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:11,000
Speaker 18: you know, the AI trading algorithm. Those have been here

1184
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 18: for years, right, So, and I think a fair chunk

1185
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:18,680
Speaker 18: of the global market is quant quant driven. So that's

1186
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:22,040
Speaker 18: AI models making the investment decision, which comes with its

1187
01:02:22,080 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 18: own problems, but it's there.

1188
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,200
Speaker 3: I was waiting for the word quantit to come up.

1189
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:29,400
Speaker 3: And we just need to explain this a little better because,

1190
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 3: as I understand it from a very amateur level, the basically,

1191
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:35,880
Speaker 3: a quant is a sort of system where one thing

1192
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 3: happens and a series of computer programs will make a

1193
01:02:39,400 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 3: serious of decisions based off that. So say, for example,

1194
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:46,880
Speaker 3: just to give a strange example, Russia invades Ukraine. A

1195
01:02:47,000 --> 01:02:50,840
Speaker 3: QUANT program which would not necessarily be AI, but would

1196
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 3: know automatically to buy arms, manufacturers, maybe oil, maybe things

1197
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 3: like that.

1198
01:02:55,560 --> 01:02:57,480
Speaker 5: Would that be the right way to understand it? I

1199
01:02:57,520 --> 01:03:00,840
Speaker 5: think partly yes. I mean obviously past it was people.

1200
01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:04,000
Speaker 5: It wasn't just a system a quantity person like a

1201
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:05,840
Speaker 5: computer was a person at one point time, you know

1202
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 5: what I mean. Yeah, But it is moving towards this

1203
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:11,440
Speaker 5: this this, this automated system. The issue here is that,

1204
01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:13,960
Speaker 5: as must have mentioned, they're still hallucinations, not as big

1205
01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:15,720
Speaker 5: a problem as they were in the past, but I mean,

1206
01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:18,280
Speaker 5: dealing with money, one in a thousand is still possibly

1207
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 5: you know, deadly to you, you know what I mean,

1208
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 5: especially if we get the wrong thing happening there. And

1209
01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 5: so even one in a thousand hallucinations is still going

1210
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 5: to be, you know, something that you can't handle. And

1211
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 5: if you think about like most generations of AI, if

1212
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:31,840
Speaker 5: you know one in a thousand times you ask, you know,

1213
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 5: chat chipet of Claude to do something for you, and

1214
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:35,880
Speaker 5: it gets something slightly off, you don't really care. But

1215
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:37,520
Speaker 5: when it's actually making a final decision. That's why the

1216
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:40,240
Speaker 5: human in the loop is still important. Well, at some

1217
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:42,440
Speaker 5: point in time get out of the loop. I don't know,

1218
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:44,240
Speaker 5: I know, in chess points since as I used as

1219
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:46,480
Speaker 5: a comparison, there was a pedd for a couple of

1220
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 5: years whether what's called Centaurs outperformed both humans and computers.

1221
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:53,400
Speaker 5: Center was basically a human and a computer working together. Unfortunately,

1222
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:55,640
Speaker 5: now the computer bes every human and the only thing

1223
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 5: the human can do is make it worse. And so

1224
01:03:57,400 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 5: maybe down the line we will come to a point

1225
01:03:59,080 --> 01:04:00,720
Speaker 5: where that's also going to be the case. But right

1226
01:04:00,760 --> 01:04:04,000
Speaker 5: now I think probably Centaurs in the investment space probably

1227
01:04:04,000 --> 01:04:07,480
Speaker 5: beat at list terms of safety. Maybe not a performance,

1228
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:09,920
Speaker 5: you know, just a pure automatic system.

1229
01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:12,720
Speaker 3: We were talking to Beata Armitage last night. He was

1230
01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 3: our shape shift and he's the CEO at Anchor Capital,

1231
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 3: as you will know, and someone who I think we

1232
01:04:18,320 --> 01:04:21,920
Speaker 3: could say he's been successful in this business. And he

1233
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:23,760
Speaker 3: and I were just talking about and I asked him

1234
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:26,240
Speaker 3: the question straight out, does it ever worry you that

1235
01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:31,160
Speaker 3: something could kind of get out of hand and were

1236
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 3: ai to actually make the trades? The problem is that

1237
01:04:35,160 --> 01:04:37,920
Speaker 3: what we're seeing now, and you see this is a

1238
01:04:37,920 --> 01:04:39,840
Speaker 3: good example of some of the shares that move today.

1239
01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:42,320
Speaker 3: Net Bank had an update and they were up nearly

1240
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:44,960
Speaker 3: nine percent. Now, thirty years ago they might have had

1241
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:47,640
Speaker 3: an update that strong, But as Peter explained it to

1242
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:50,080
Speaker 3: me last night, they would have been up maybe three percent,

1243
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:53,439
Speaker 3: you know, because there's so much information, so many people

1244
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:56,360
Speaker 3: are moving so many shares. Where I'm going with all

1245
01:04:56,440 --> 01:05:00,000
Speaker 3: of this, Muso is does the risk of a cascade

1246
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 3: aiding event that's based on one mistake which leads to another,

1247
01:05:04,760 --> 01:05:07,880
Speaker 3: which leads to another. Because it all happens so quickly

1248
01:05:07,920 --> 01:05:11,160
Speaker 3: by the time a human being, by the time Muso

1249
01:05:11,280 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 3: or Vivo a year later Stephen have even noticed, it's

1250
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:18,120
Speaker 3: actually something almost irrevocable has happened.

1251
01:05:18,360 --> 01:05:21,439
Speaker 18: Yes, No, that's a big risk, and in fact, with

1252
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:25,120
Speaker 18: generative AI it's an even bigger risk because a lot

1253
01:05:25,160 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 18: of the models that we are using generative AI models

1254
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:28,880
Speaker 18: come from a few providers.

1255
01:05:28,920 --> 01:05:32,160
Speaker 3: It's Open AI, it's LAMA, it's anthropic, and they're all

1256
01:05:32,160 --> 01:05:33,440
Speaker 3: financially related to each other.

1257
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:36,600
Speaker 18: The architecture of the model itself is the same, it's transformers,

1258
01:05:36,600 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 18: et cetera. Now the problem is, then you have and

1259
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:41,080
Speaker 18: they're looking at the same data, right, the same kind

1260
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:44,000
Speaker 18: of information in the market. Now, markets work on the

1261
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 18: presumption of wisdom of crowds. We are all individually wrong

1262
01:05:47,440 --> 01:05:50,960
Speaker 18: as investors, but collectively we make the right decision because

1263
01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:54,680
Speaker 18: it's a polling system. Now, the problem with overreliance on AI,

1264
01:05:54,760 --> 01:05:57,960
Speaker 18: whether it's not even pulling the trigger but just simply

1265
01:05:58,000 --> 01:06:00,880
Speaker 18: relying on it too much, creates the systemic risk in

1266
01:06:00,920 --> 01:06:03,240
Speaker 18: the market. And we've seen this before. So in two

1267
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:06,360
Speaker 18: thousand and seven there was what is called the quant quake. Yeah,

1268
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:11,080
Speaker 18: this is where quant funds, using simple factor investing models

1269
01:06:11,080 --> 01:06:14,200
Speaker 18: that have been here for a few decades, started to

1270
01:06:14,240 --> 01:06:17,000
Speaker 18: make the same kind of investment decisions as you as

1271
01:06:17,040 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 18: you you know, you pointed out on the same signal,

1272
01:06:19,840 --> 01:06:21,880
Speaker 18: so the input signal is the same, they start making

1273
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:24,600
Speaker 18: the same decision and it leads to a collapse. That

1274
01:06:24,640 --> 01:06:28,160
Speaker 18: particular collapse lasted about about a week and then eventually

1275
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:31,560
Speaker 18: corrected itself. Now people lost money and even worse one

1276
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:34,840
Speaker 18: was the Flesh crash. I think this was twenty eleven

1277
01:06:34,920 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 18: or twenty ten, I forget the date. Now what happened

1278
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:39,720
Speaker 18: to there is within the space of a few minutes

1279
01:06:39,840 --> 01:06:43,640
Speaker 18: you had the markets collapse nine percent, which is almost

1280
01:06:43,680 --> 01:06:48,880
Speaker 18: COVID level of corrections. All in fact, with the Flesh crash,

1281
01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:51,120
Speaker 18: we still today don't know what happened. No one you know.

1282
01:06:51,160 --> 01:06:54,919
Speaker 3: And actually first figure it is reassuring. Yeah, it's self reinforcing.

1283
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:59,360
Speaker 3: So different quant models trading against each other to create chaos.

1284
01:06:59,680 --> 01:07:02,040
Speaker 18: So what's the problem is this systemic risk that you

1285
01:07:02,080 --> 01:07:03,080
Speaker 18: know that we're creating.

1286
01:07:03,560 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 3: Okay, So the next question, then, I suppose becomes, has

1287
01:07:08,080 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 3: all of this, these developments that we're seeing now that

1288
01:07:10,160 --> 01:07:12,560
Speaker 3: we've got the dangers safely out the way, has it

1289
01:07:12,680 --> 01:07:14,480
Speaker 3: made things a little bit more democratic?

1290
01:07:15,600 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 10: So?

1291
01:07:16,200 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 3: Does it level the playing field that you or I

1292
01:07:21,280 --> 01:07:25,040
Speaker 3: let me put it like this, you have infinite quite

1293
01:07:25,040 --> 01:07:28,280
Speaker 3: infinite years of experience, but a lot why don't it

1294
01:07:28,280 --> 01:07:28,919
Speaker 3: call me al today?

1295
01:07:28,880 --> 01:07:30,000
Speaker 5: I don't know what's happening.

1296
01:07:32,640 --> 01:07:36,640
Speaker 3: Really. Maybe anyway, so you have years of experience and

1297
01:07:36,680 --> 01:07:39,280
Speaker 3: I don't. Right now we're competing at the same time

1298
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:42,200
Speaker 3: in the same investment space. For whatever reason, suddenly we

1299
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:44,440
Speaker 3: both have access to AI. Does it give me a

1300
01:07:44,480 --> 01:07:46,360
Speaker 3: greater chance of coming closer to you?

1301
01:07:47,200 --> 01:07:47,280
Speaker 8: Not?

1302
01:07:47,520 --> 01:07:49,760
Speaker 19: Like I said, I don't think the actually versts hedge

1303
01:07:49,760 --> 01:07:52,560
Speaker 19: fund trading kind of space already beating the market space.

1304
01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:54,240
Speaker 19: I don't think that's going to be a viable option

1305
01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:56,440
Speaker 19: for individuals. In fact, I think what's happening right now

1306
01:07:56,480 --> 01:07:58,360
Speaker 19: is probably going to make it more difficult because you

1307
01:07:58,360 --> 01:08:00,600
Speaker 19: could have a very small kid. I mean, the flash

1308
01:08:00,640 --> 01:08:04,280
Speaker 19: crash was apparently caused by some young man in his parents' basement.

1309
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:07,200
Speaker 19: I'm maybe needed diverged into something. But you know, he

1310
01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:09,240
Speaker 19: was very smart and he was able to beat you know,

1311
01:08:09,680 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 19: the markets inverted commas. Uh, that's not going to happen

1312
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:13,880
Speaker 19: nowadays because AI is just going to give you too

1313
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 19: much of an advantage to those of the capital and

1314
01:08:15,440 --> 01:08:17,960
Speaker 19: excellent data. But like I said, I think we're the

1315
01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:20,680
Speaker 19: real quick in the investment environment. Is that comes for

1316
01:08:20,760 --> 01:08:23,040
Speaker 19: the regional investor, because what is going to happen is

1317
01:08:23,040 --> 01:08:24,679
Speaker 19: more regional investors is going to get closer and closer

1318
01:08:24,720 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 19: to the efficient frontier in terms of investments. That means

1319
01:08:27,400 --> 01:08:29,679
Speaker 19: it's going to be less profits for the financial planners

1320
01:08:29,680 --> 01:08:31,559
Speaker 19: out there and the you know, the fund managers and

1321
01:08:31,560 --> 01:08:34,320
Speaker 19: those kind of guys. And I think that's the real uh,

1322
01:08:34,400 --> 01:08:36,320
Speaker 19: you know, democratization, if you want to talk about it,

1323
01:08:36,400 --> 01:08:38,519
Speaker 19: you're not going to get beyond efficient frontier. And unless

1324
01:08:38,520 --> 01:08:40,360
Speaker 19: you're someone you know with a doctorate and you know,

1325
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 19: or experience and a big brain, you know what I mean,

1326
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:47,719
Speaker 19: and also lots of capital to enforce those idies with AI.

1327
01:08:48,160 --> 01:08:50,040
Speaker 19: But the individual man on the street of moon on

1328
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:52,559
Speaker 19: the street is something going to find himselves much more

1329
01:08:52,600 --> 01:08:56,439
Speaker 19: able to avoid the huge you know, expense ratios or

1330
01:08:56,640 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 19: the inefficient allocation of resources, et cetera that probably plagues

1331
01:09:00,000 --> 01:09:02,080
Speaker 19: lost of Africans at the moment. I think I recently

1332
01:09:02,160 --> 01:09:05,000
Speaker 19: saw stat that the majority as of Aflicans don't get

1333
01:09:05,040 --> 01:09:07,920
Speaker 19: anywhere near the aviation shot in the market because they

1334
01:09:07,920 --> 01:09:09,960
Speaker 19: do really bad things like you'll sell to early, buy

1335
01:09:10,000 --> 01:09:12,080
Speaker 19: to early, those kind of things, And that I think

1336
01:09:12,160 --> 01:09:13,240
Speaker 19: was what I can help you with.

1337
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:17,519
Speaker 3: We're talking to Governor portfolio manager at RAND Swiss. Doctor

1338
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:20,920
Speaker 3: mussamal Landler is their co chief investment officer at Differential Capital.

1339
01:09:21,200 --> 01:09:24,280
Speaker 3: We're talking about the use of artificial intelligence in investing.

1340
01:09:24,439 --> 01:09:25,920
Speaker 3: It will make you a better investor, it will make

1341
01:09:25,920 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 3: you a quicker investor. I don't know if that's going

1342
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:30,280
Speaker 3: to make me sleep at night. Ten minutes now to

1343
01:09:30,320 --> 01:09:31,639
Speaker 3: eight The.

1344
01:09:31,720 --> 01:09:34,080
Speaker 2: Money Show, Investment School.

1345
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:37,599
Speaker 3: Nine minutes to eight Investment School Tonight, Using AI in

1346
01:09:37,600 --> 01:09:40,360
Speaker 3: investment and how it's literally going to change the world.

1347
01:09:41,360 --> 01:09:43,800
Speaker 3: Doctor Musam Milwandler is the co chief investment officer at

1348
01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:49,400
Speaker 3: Differential Capital. The Governor's portfolio manager at rand Swiss. All

1349
01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:52,680
Speaker 3: of these things are making decisions, but they've got to

1350
01:09:52,720 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 3: make decisions on something, and they're making decisions on information.

1351
01:09:57,160 --> 01:10:01,200
Speaker 3: And most of the information is in some way, shape

1352
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:02,040
Speaker 3: or form public.

1353
01:10:02,600 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 18: Yes, yes, so well, the bulk of the information that

1354
01:10:06,439 --> 01:10:09,479
Speaker 18: at least generative AI. So the AI models we are using,

1355
01:10:09,560 --> 01:10:12,000
Speaker 18: you know, the ch GPT, et cetera. It's public data.

1356
01:10:12,280 --> 01:10:14,960
Speaker 18: And the warry here, so maybe let's go back to

1357
01:10:15,000 --> 01:10:17,800
Speaker 18: how these models are trained. They're using common cross or

1358
01:10:17,920 --> 01:10:21,000
Speaker 18: you know, a crawl of the entire website, you know,

1359
01:10:21,120 --> 01:10:23,439
Speaker 18: collecting all of the text and then training the models.

1360
01:10:23,880 --> 01:10:26,679
Speaker 18: Even at inference time, when you're using the models, they're

1361
01:10:26,680 --> 01:10:30,200
Speaker 18: collecting information from places like Reddit, you know, sometimes it's

1362
01:10:30,240 --> 01:10:34,400
Speaker 18: financial statement data, sometimes news, et cetera. So it's publicly

1363
01:10:34,520 --> 01:10:37,920
Speaker 18: you know, available data. And again therein lies a bias.

1364
01:10:38,040 --> 01:10:44,200
Speaker 18: But whether advantage or you know, so so forth, particularly

1365
01:10:44,200 --> 01:10:47,479
Speaker 18: institutional investors comes is when you have your own private

1366
01:10:47,560 --> 01:10:49,960
Speaker 18: bank of data, in other words, a report of data

1367
01:10:50,400 --> 01:10:52,840
Speaker 18: that these models can draw and to make decisions. That's

1368
01:10:52,840 --> 01:10:55,680
Speaker 18: why you differentiate yourself right and correct for some of

1369
01:10:55,760 --> 01:10:58,360
Speaker 18: that risks. And that's what we call alternative data. So

1370
01:10:58,439 --> 01:11:01,680
Speaker 18: data beyond just what you know, what's in the financial statements,

1371
01:11:01,680 --> 01:11:04,840
Speaker 18: et cetera. Examples of this I mentioned some of them.

1372
01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:08,439
Speaker 18: So you might use you know, satellite imagery to scan

1373
01:11:08,520 --> 01:11:10,719
Speaker 18: a maze field to figure out what the crop yield

1374
01:11:10,760 --> 01:11:12,960
Speaker 18: looks like. You might scan a car park, you might

1375
01:11:13,040 --> 01:11:15,439
Speaker 18: you know, there are more sophisticated versions of this, but

1376
01:11:15,520 --> 01:11:18,439
Speaker 18: I think that's the lasting advantage that you can you know,

1377
01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:22,280
Speaker 18: deploy these models to to help you with and that Unfortunately,

1378
01:11:22,280 --> 01:11:24,479
Speaker 18: it is not something that a retail investor can you know,

1379
01:11:24,560 --> 01:11:27,400
Speaker 18: partake in it. It's very difficult to get this, you know,

1380
01:11:27,920 --> 01:11:31,040
Speaker 18: this concept of alternative data right when you don't have

1381
01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:34,360
Speaker 18: the you know, the scale and the capital advantage to

1382
01:11:34,439 --> 01:11:35,560
Speaker 18: do it.

1383
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:37,840
Speaker 3: Verb So obviously data is a big part of it,

1384
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:40,000
Speaker 3: but so is an insight that no one else has.

1385
01:11:40,560 --> 01:11:42,240
Speaker 3: And I mean there have been times in my life

1386
01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:44,880
Speaker 3: when I've been working in an industry and someone almost

1387
01:11:44,880 --> 01:11:47,639
Speaker 3: outside it's it's just seen things that I haven't has

1388
01:11:47,720 --> 01:11:51,519
Speaker 3: said well, this is what will happen next, and You're like, oh,

1389
01:11:51,640 --> 01:11:53,680
Speaker 3: I hadn't seen it like that. And I mean there

1390
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 3: must be people in companies, at senior levels in companies

1391
01:11:56,400 --> 01:11:59,000
Speaker 3: who are surprised by things that happened to those companies,

1392
01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:03,320
Speaker 3: whereas people outside the aren't. Is AI really capable of

1393
01:12:03,360 --> 01:12:06,760
Speaker 3: that insight that gives you an age? I mean, some

1394
01:12:06,840 --> 01:12:10,360
Speaker 3: of it must be, but there sometimes I think genuine

1395
01:12:10,479 --> 01:12:14,800
Speaker 3: human insights born of experience. I think for now, like

1396
01:12:14,840 --> 01:12:16,080
Speaker 3: I do think that we have an advantage.

1397
01:12:16,080 --> 01:12:18,519
Speaker 19: I was just talking before we came on about like

1398
01:12:18,640 --> 01:12:20,479
Speaker 19: one of the reasons I started AI fund was I

1399
01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:23,800
Speaker 19: spotted a drop in podition markets for when the AI

1400
01:12:23,880 --> 01:12:26,639
Speaker 19: is don't come about forever. It was twenty thirty years,

1401
01:12:26,680 --> 01:12:28,840
Speaker 19: twenty fifty years, that kind of thing. Then about three

1402
01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:30,760
Speaker 19: four years ago it been down to seven years to

1403
01:12:30,840 --> 01:12:32,960
Speaker 19: ten years, and that was a shocking drop. It was

1404
01:12:33,000 --> 01:12:35,240
Speaker 19: pretty quickly because obviously something was happening there and that

1405
01:12:35,360 --> 01:12:37,479
Speaker 19: fund I saw a whole fun based on that. That

1406
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:39,320
Speaker 19: is something you know, a human might be able to

1407
01:12:39,320 --> 01:12:41,040
Speaker 19: do right now that the AI does not make the

1408
01:12:41,040 --> 01:12:43,600
Speaker 19: connection to. But as these systems get bigger, as a

1409
01:12:43,640 --> 01:12:46,120
Speaker 19: system get you know, more complicated, that they start I

1410
01:12:46,120 --> 01:12:48,880
Speaker 19: mean access to more real time data. I do think

1411
01:12:48,880 --> 01:12:51,200
Speaker 19: that that even that advantage over time will go away.

1412
01:12:52,160 --> 01:12:54,680
Speaker 19: You'd be surprised the kind of you know interesting you know,

1413
01:12:54,720 --> 01:12:56,400
Speaker 19: I mean, if you spend some time talking to the

1414
01:12:56,439 --> 01:12:58,880
Speaker 19: newer systems, it'd be amazed at some of the you know,

1415
01:12:58,960 --> 01:13:01,760
Speaker 19: kind of ideas connections that they make that you are

1416
01:13:01,800 --> 01:13:03,479
Speaker 19: finding interesting, you know what I mean, and that you

1417
01:13:03,520 --> 01:13:05,880
Speaker 19: didn't think of yourself. And so I do think that

1418
01:13:05,880 --> 01:13:09,320
Speaker 19: that is something to be like. You know, yes, this

1419
01:13:09,439 --> 01:13:11,120
Speaker 19: is the worst AA is ever going to be, and

1420
01:13:11,160 --> 01:13:13,400
Speaker 19: every single year it gets better and any advantage you

1421
01:13:13,400 --> 01:13:15,040
Speaker 19: have over time disappears and one day will be a

1422
01:13:15,040 --> 01:13:15,760
Speaker 19: disadvantage to you.

1423
01:13:17,200 --> 01:13:20,519
Speaker 3: So then so what keeps I mean there's a huge

1424
01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:25,439
Speaker 3: investment industry, I mean it's massive. What keeps that going

1425
01:13:25,960 --> 01:13:29,120
Speaker 3: in in sort of tech pilance? What's its you know, mote?

1426
01:13:29,200 --> 01:13:32,400
Speaker 3: What's the thing it can do that ordinary people or

1427
01:13:32,479 --> 01:13:34,920
Speaker 3: just a small group of very clever people with AI

1428
01:13:35,040 --> 01:13:37,599
Speaker 3: can't do. That's that's the right question.

1429
01:13:37,760 --> 01:13:42,920
Speaker 18: So that the problem is what AI has enabled smaller

1430
01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:48,040
Speaker 18: investment firms or even private individuals is to participate at

1431
01:13:48,560 --> 01:13:51,519
Speaker 18: not exactly the same level of competence as you know

1432
01:13:51,800 --> 01:13:55,800
Speaker 18: some of the larger institutions, but they're thereabout now.

1433
01:13:55,840 --> 01:13:58,080
Speaker 3: Where the moat remains is.

1434
01:13:58,040 --> 01:14:01,040
Speaker 18: In the tradition in data, right, That's that's one part

1435
01:14:01,080 --> 01:14:03,920
Speaker 18: which is which is what we already discussed. But the

1436
01:14:03,960 --> 01:14:06,680
Speaker 18: other part is maybe we'll go back to our roots. Right,

1437
01:14:06,720 --> 01:14:09,960
Speaker 18: So what investing active investing was supposed to be about

1438
01:14:10,120 --> 01:14:13,880
Speaker 18: was activism, so sitting across from a management team, you know,

1439
01:14:14,320 --> 01:14:17,880
Speaker 18: discussing strategy, so creating vet not just picking winners and losers,

1440
01:14:17,920 --> 01:14:20,920
Speaker 18: but actually agitating for change in direction and so on.

1441
01:14:20,920 --> 01:14:24,120
Speaker 18: And I think that's probably a space where I mean,

1442
01:14:24,160 --> 01:14:27,880
Speaker 18: I can't imagine a management team of a bank taking

1443
01:14:28,000 --> 01:14:32,120
Speaker 18: orders from an agent, so I think that could be, you.

1444
01:14:32,040 --> 01:14:34,960
Speaker 3: Know, still quite a long way away. And I think, yeah,

1445
01:14:36,360 --> 01:14:41,360
Speaker 3: are there certain advantages that will remain? I mean, this

1446
01:14:41,479 --> 01:14:45,240
Speaker 3: is really a conversation about active management of funds, It's

1447
01:14:45,280 --> 01:14:50,320
Speaker 3: not buying indices. But I mean, does anything stays? There

1448
01:14:50,320 --> 01:14:54,000
Speaker 3: going to be any reason why you need humans to

1449
01:14:54,120 --> 01:14:55,360
Speaker 3: do all of this? I mean I can think of

1450
01:14:55,400 --> 01:14:58,800
Speaker 3: several reasons perhaps, and maybe they're to do with coordination

1451
01:14:59,120 --> 01:15:01,960
Speaker 3: or strategy, like long term what I want, But is

1452
01:15:01,960 --> 01:15:04,360
Speaker 3: there any other reason why are you going to need

1453
01:15:04,400 --> 01:15:06,600
Speaker 3: a human for investment? That sounds a bit strange on

1454
01:15:06,680 --> 01:15:07,720
Speaker 3: investment school to ask us.

1455
01:15:07,880 --> 01:15:09,400
Speaker 19: I mean, factually ten this time, I don't know the

1456
01:15:09,400 --> 01:15:11,599
Speaker 19: future holes, but I mean even that, but you talked

1457
01:15:11,600 --> 01:15:14,080
Speaker 19: about that doesn't be a problem. And the guy running

1458
01:15:14,120 --> 01:15:20,160
Speaker 19: the companies also in AI. Yeah, look, I mean the

1459
01:15:20,479 --> 01:15:22,880
Speaker 19: new agentic stuff that's coming about. We were talking about

1460
01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:25,080
Speaker 19: it just before we came on air. I think that

1461
01:15:25,160 --> 01:15:27,040
Speaker 19: if you think you know what AII is, and you

1462
01:15:27,080 --> 01:15:28,919
Speaker 19: last time you looked at it in real like details,

1463
01:15:28,920 --> 01:15:32,280
Speaker 19: like say the second half or the third quarter of

1464
01:15:32,360 --> 01:15:34,599
Speaker 19: last year and missed the last two or three months

1465
01:15:34,600 --> 01:15:37,120
Speaker 19: of AI, you don't know what it'stical. So what the

1466
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:41,960
Speaker 19: real actually outbooks Like, it's become really clear that edgentic

1467
01:15:42,080 --> 01:15:45,599
Speaker 19: systems are here already, I mean, would open claw. Those

1468
01:15:45,680 --> 01:15:47,920
Speaker 19: kind of things are really really taken a market by storm.

1469
01:15:48,400 --> 01:15:51,120
Speaker 19: And I do think that what those things are able

1470
01:15:51,160 --> 01:15:54,400
Speaker 19: to do at the moment, I mean they're probably equivalent

1471
01:15:54,439 --> 01:15:57,960
Speaker 19: to a competence, like you know, graduate from a university.

1472
01:15:58,160 --> 01:15:59,120
Speaker 3: Not great, I like a C.

1473
01:15:59,200 --> 01:16:01,400
Speaker 19: Student to be students, but every year that Craig goes

1474
01:16:01,439 --> 01:16:03,840
Speaker 19: up one or two grades and by year three or

1475
01:16:03,880 --> 01:16:06,519
Speaker 19: four might be in Einstein. And unfortunately, I don't know

1476
01:16:06,560 --> 01:16:10,519
Speaker 19: what we compete in that particularly period. Resort to people

1477
01:16:10,680 --> 01:16:12,960
Speaker 19: like an overlying on regulation, that might be a danger

1478
01:16:13,000 --> 01:16:15,599
Speaker 19: where you know the industry decides to resort to regulation

1479
01:16:15,720 --> 01:16:18,839
Speaker 19: to protect their mode and that might be somethings negative

1480
01:16:18,840 --> 01:16:22,920
Speaker 19: for racial investors out there, but I don't know what survive,

1481
01:16:23,000 --> 01:16:25,519
Speaker 19: say five or ten years of the future. Maybe the

1482
01:16:25,600 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 19: human touch, but even that we don't know.

1483
01:16:28,240 --> 01:16:32,320
Speaker 3: So well, that's encouraging, Thanks very much. I've going to

1484
01:16:32,360 --> 01:16:36,080
Speaker 3: his portfolio manager at RANTS Swiss doctr. Musamal Landler is

1485
01:16:36,120 --> 01:16:39,080
Speaker 3: the co Chief investment Officer of Differential Capital. It's a

1486
01:16:39,160 --> 01:16:41,720
Speaker 3: fascinating conversation available for you as a podcast in a

1487
01:16:41,720 --> 01:16:44,320
Speaker 3: couple of moments. You'll be pleased to know the podcast

1488
01:16:44,400 --> 01:16:46,719
Speaker 3: is put together by a real live person.

1489
01:16:49,160 --> 01:16:51,400
Speaker 20: The Money Show with Stephen Kruetiz is brought to you

1490
01:16:51,439 --> 01:16:54,880
Speaker 20: by Absolve Corporate and Investment Banking, proud sponsor of the

1491
01:16:55,040 --> 01:16:59,479
Speaker 20: LMA ICMA Loan End Capital Markets Africa Summit twenty twenty

1492
01:16:59,520 --> 01:17:01,280
Speaker 20: six Absolut retiar FFP.

1493
01:17:03,000 --> 01:17:06,280
Speaker 3: Well in the US, markets still down despite all of

1494
01:17:06,280 --> 01:17:08,760
Speaker 3: the froth about AI and and videos results. The Dow

1495
01:17:08,880 --> 01:17:11,519
Speaker 3: Jones is down point three eight percent, the Nasdaq is

1496
01:17:11,560 --> 01:17:13,040
Speaker 3: down one and a half. The S and P five

1497
01:17:13,120 --> 01:17:15,120
Speaker 3: hundred is down point eight to seven. I can't tell

1498
01:17:15,160 --> 01:17:18,599
Speaker 3: you what is making the trading decisions that have led

1499
01:17:18,600 --> 01:17:20,840
Speaker 3: to this, but certainly this is where things are going,

1500
01:17:20,880 --> 01:17:22,920
Speaker 3: at least for the moment, perhaps in an hour or two.

1501
01:17:23,400 --> 01:17:26,639
Speaker 3: As you know, these things can turn really very very quickly.

1502
01:17:27,000 --> 01:17:29,679
Speaker 3: There's already been quite a busy week with the budget

1503
01:17:29,720 --> 01:17:32,400
Speaker 3: and with everything else. I'm still mulling over the conversations

1504
01:17:32,439 --> 01:17:35,559
Speaker 3: we had about traffic, and I think in the future

1505
01:17:35,600 --> 01:17:37,640
Speaker 3: we look at some more deep dives into subjects like

1506
01:17:37,680 --> 01:17:41,200
Speaker 3: that that affect you and your productivity. Thanks for being

1507
01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:43,160
Speaker 3: with us tonight. Back with you tomorrow. Good evening, it's

1508
01:17:43,200 --> 01:17:43,679
Speaker 3: eight o'clock