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Speaker 1: Is on The Money Show six to eight pm. Well,

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Speaker 1: last night on the Money Show you heard a conversation

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Speaker 1: with Warren Tucker, he's the motoring expert, and we were

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Speaker 1: talking about why we buy Cars is no longer using

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Speaker 1: the independent car assessment service Decra. Instead, people who want

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Speaker 1: to buy their cars are using, or being asked or

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Speaker 1: told to use inspect to Phy. It's a new car

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Speaker 1: assessment service, but inspect to Phi is owned by We

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Speaker 1: buy Cars. In other words, we buy Cars. It's telling

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Speaker 1: you if you want to buy its cars, you mistrust

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Speaker 1: the service that it owns. Veynant Berkis is the deputy

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Speaker 1: CEO at We Buy Cars. Veynant, good evening. I'm very

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Speaker 1: glad we're able to have this conversation. Thank you. Firstly,

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Speaker 1: why have you stopped using decro? Why did you decide

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Speaker 1: to no longer use a service that is independent and

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Speaker 1: is owned by someone else?

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Speaker 2: Stephen Growth chatting to you, I think it's important that

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Speaker 2: we just clarify. I think we've been using the word

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Speaker 2: decros encompassing words for mini services. If you look at

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Speaker 2: the current Decora's website, they provide more than one service.

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Speaker 2: First to look at a legal road certificate. That you

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Speaker 2: can obtain at any DECRA branch nationwide, and these legal

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Speaker 2: road certificates is necessary or required by South African law

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Speaker 2: before a vehicle can be licensed, and this is governed

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Speaker 2: by the Department of Transport in South Africa. Secondly, another

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Speaker 2: service they provide is the vehicle condition report. It's important

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Speaker 2: to note that a condition report is not required by

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Speaker 2: law by any dealership to provide to sell a vehicle.

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Speaker 2: It's an additional service or value added service that we

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Speaker 2: provide to help the consumers understand the condition of the

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Speaker 2: used vehicle before making a purchasing decision. So what we've

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Speaker 2: done is with yes and note to answer your question, Yes,

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Speaker 2: we've parted ways on the condition report of DECRA and

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Speaker 2: we still have a great relationship with Deectra and we

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Speaker 2: use themselves for the required legal road certificate that we

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Speaker 2: cannot provide. We're not going to do that, so we

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Speaker 2: only took ownership of the condition report and that's what

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Speaker 2: we bought last year and that's the brand. It's called Inspectify.

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Speaker 1: Okay, But why.

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Speaker 2: So, Steve and I think it's important. It's very that

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Speaker 2: the declar report or condition report was a very technical

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Speaker 2: report and if you go back and we visited the

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Speaker 2: US last year and you look at international players that's

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Speaker 2: a trend like car Max and the US, they all

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Speaker 2: provide an internal service called a vehicle assessment or a

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Speaker 2: one twenty five point report, and there's many dealership to

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Speaker 2: Africa that's doing that. And we felt that the technical

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Speaker 2: report from the condition report provide was very technical and

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Speaker 2: we want to be very or provide information, clarity to

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Speaker 2: the information to the consumer and to an understandable report.

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Speaker 2: So we took over the technical development of the condition

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Speaker 2: report or the assessment itself, and we we generate report

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Speaker 2: ourselves in a in such a way that's paluable for

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Speaker 2: a average consumer to understand report, especially for first time buyers.

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Speaker 2: It's a big financial decisions that you make and you

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Speaker 2: need to understand the condition of the vehicle when you

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Speaker 2: get into it's still a second end vehicle. And we

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Speaker 2: from a trust and transparency perspective, we are just there

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Speaker 2: to serve the consumer to make sure that they understand

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Speaker 2: what they're buying before they make a surchasing decision.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so I'm glad you use the words trust because

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Speaker 1: that is everything in this and essentially what you're doing

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Speaker 1: is we buy cars. Is you're saying, Stephen, here's a car,

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Speaker 1: here's the condition of the car. The condition of a

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Speaker 1: car is what inspect to fire, which we own, say

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Speaker 1: it is, and Stephen might well feel well, Actually, I

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Speaker 1: would rather know that the condition of the car is

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Speaker 1: what someone a third party says. It is, not you

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Speaker 1: and not me.

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Speaker 2: And I think I'll come back to my first point.

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Speaker 2: It is not required by law to provide a condition report.

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Speaker 2: It's a value added service provided by we by cost

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Speaker 2: and by some of the bigger groups South Africa. The

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Speaker 2: smaller builders to South Africa doesn't provide any conditional report

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Speaker 2: on vehicles being solved, So there's value added service. It's

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Speaker 2: just a it's just a way for us to communicate

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Speaker 2: the condition of the vehicle. Yes, you can argue that

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Speaker 2: we're marking our own homework, but it's all in the

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Speaker 2: quality of the report. I think the trust from the

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Speaker 2: public hotel in time as we can portray the condition

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Speaker 2: of the vehicle in such a method that with the

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Speaker 2: consumer trust that report and he knows what the condition

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Speaker 2: of that vehicle is. I think that's what it's all about.

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Speaker 2: It's about the trust and the accuracy of the report,

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Speaker 2: and we need to make sure that it's actually is possible.

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Speaker 1: Who's running and spectify who's in charge of it.

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Speaker 2: As in spectifies a wholly owned subsidiary from of vy costs,

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Speaker 2: it's a hundred percent fully unsubsidary from VY course, and

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Speaker 2: we've developed a software internally in vark course.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so how can I know it's independent? Is ready

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Speaker 1: the question?

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Speaker 2: So see when it's not a case of independence, it's

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Speaker 2: a it's a case of the quality.

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Speaker 3: Of the report.

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Speaker 2: Like we mentioned us, it's not it's not required by law.

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Speaker 2: So if we if we provide a high quality report

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Speaker 2: that's got accurate information and the consumer can trust that information,

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Speaker 2: the independence.

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Speaker 4: Is not going to be.

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Speaker 2: We can have a governing body that governs or independent

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Speaker 2: orders that orders this, but if the quality report is

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Speaker 2: not under standards and the consumer can trust, it is

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Speaker 2: not going to work in any case. So for us,

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Speaker 2: independence is not it's not about the independence, it's about

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Speaker 2: the quality and the trust willness of that report. And

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Speaker 2: and and and we're working very hard to make that

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Speaker 2: improve that report and making sure that the consumer knows

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Speaker 2: exactly what the condition of the vehicle is when you

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Speaker 2: purchased that vehicle. So in any road conditions that it

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Speaker 2: needs to fix, or we can fix for him, and

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Speaker 2: we can take it to a decraft station, for example,

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Speaker 2: to get a roadmally test or certificate.

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Speaker 1: Okay, but I understand the value in having a report

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Speaker 1: that is easier to understand. I have to say to you,

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Speaker 1: I would find a report that is conducted independently of

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Speaker 1: more value because I can always take the decro report,

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Speaker 1: or I can always take the more technical report and

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Speaker 1: spend some time understanding it all going to ask a

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Speaker 1: friend or asking someone else, or whatever the question really is.

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Speaker 1: And it keeps boiling down to trust too. It's so direct,

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Speaker 1: But how can we trust you?

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Speaker 2: VENA, Well, it's a it's a it's a time will

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Speaker 2: tell Steven the quality of the reports. Again, it will

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Speaker 2: come back to the consumer. If we accurately this portraying

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Speaker 2: information and the condition of the vehicle, that's where the

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Speaker 2: that's where the test is going to lie.

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Speaker 4: It's not in the in the.

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Speaker 2: Independent auditing, it's in the it's in the quality of report.

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Speaker 2: And we we're going to stand by that point. It's

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Speaker 2: a we we feel that if we can accurately portrayed information,

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Speaker 2: the consumer will trust it. If we if we make

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Speaker 2: case of it, then we are not true and trust

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Speaker 2: with your that report it will come up very very quickly.

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Speaker 1: Okay. So on that point, I presume Inspective I has

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Speaker 1: been running for a while and someone somehow maybe have

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Speaker 1: done this already would be able to say to Inspectify,

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Speaker 1: give us the data on what percentage of cars they

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Speaker 1: were with defects. And do you know at the stage

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Speaker 1: venant if there is a difference between the percentage of

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Speaker 1: cars with defects found by DECRA and the percentage of

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Speaker 1: cars with defects found by Inspectify.

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Speaker 2: So Steven, no, we haven't checked that yet. So in

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Speaker 2: regards to it's in Inspectify, it's currently internally used by

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Speaker 2: Rebik Corse only. This is not a service provided to

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Speaker 2: of the market or a consumer outside of Rebark COSSE.

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Speaker 2: So we just provide us for internal use only for

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Speaker 2: at this stage and we Inspectify. We process all our

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Speaker 2: course through Inspectify when we purchase it before we sell

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Speaker 2: it to provide it to report to the consumer. So

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Speaker 2: from that data perspective, and the important here is to

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Speaker 2: notify what a problem is. We are by law requires

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Speaker 2: or not law required, we are required to cite. What

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Speaker 2: is a road really relevant condition? And why do you

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Speaker 2: have to stix on that vehicle to make sure it

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Speaker 2: will pass a roads win taste? And that is required

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Speaker 2: by law to make sure that we are safe roads

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Speaker 2: for the consumer to drive on.

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Speaker 1: All right then, and thank you very much. Indeed, I

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Speaker 1: do appreciate the time. Ben and Berkus is the deputy

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Speaker 1: CEO of We Buy Cars. Well, i'd appreciate your view

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Speaker 1: on that. Oh seven two, seven oh two one seven

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Speaker 1: oh two. How do you feel do you feel that

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Speaker 1: you can trust them? I mean, would you buy a

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Speaker 1: car from me because I say that I've looked at

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Speaker 1: it and it's fine. Would you prefer someone else to

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Speaker 1: look at it if if you're buying it from me?

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Speaker 1: Or do you think actually we're making a big fuss

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Speaker 1: about nothing? A double one double A three oh seven,

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Speaker 1: O two two one four four six, O five six

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Speaker 1: seven of voice notes please on O seven two seven

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Speaker 1: oh two one seven oh two one or two WhatsApp

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Speaker 1: messages already coming through? About it a good money show

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Speaker 1: with see them through? It is so interesting. Numbers and

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Speaker 1: an almost contradictory picture of our economy emerge in the

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Speaker 1: abs of purchasing Managers Index Today, the headline figure shows

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Speaker 1: that PERMI contracted to just forty point five points in December.

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Speaker 1: Technically that anything below fifty is a contraction, so that

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Speaker 1: would mean that the manufacturing activity shrank quite dramatically. But

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Speaker 1: there's another index as part of this which tracks expected

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Speaker 1: business conditions in six months time, and that jumped by

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Speaker 1: eighteen points. In other words, you've got a sector that's

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Speaker 1: contracting and everyone's very optimistic. Soloso Kele is an economist

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Speaker 1: at abster Cy IB and therefore can understand new ones

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Speaker 1: much better than I can. So looh, good evening. Why

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Speaker 1: is everyone in a contracting sector so optimistic?

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Speaker 3: Even to you and your listeners has given you know,

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Speaker 3: what we realize is that at the end of every

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Speaker 3: year and at the beginning of every year, we tend

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Speaker 3: to see people are quite optimistic about activity and about

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Speaker 3: six months time, so people tend to be quite hopeful

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Speaker 3: at the end and the beginning of the day. So

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Speaker 3: it's nothing new really.

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Speaker 1: So that means then that the headline figure that shows

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Speaker 1: such a big contraction is actually the number that we

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Speaker 1: really do need to look at, and it was a

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Speaker 1: big contraction.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, correct, So look, if you look at the level

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Speaker 3: at which the PMI fell, I mean it's level that

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Speaker 3: we last saw in twenty twenty, just after those harsh lockdowns.

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Speaker 3: And when you look at how you know it fell,

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Speaker 3: it was quite broad based, but it was mainly led

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Speaker 3: by inventory and employment. And what's quite well here is

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Speaker 3: that new sales orders, which treat demand, remain subject and

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Speaker 3: mainly due to domestic factors. So it's not it's not

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Speaker 3: a good print to end.

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Speaker 1: The employment index was down too, so I presume men

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Speaker 1: that along with this contraction, manufacturing is shedding jobs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's tough Steven to add jobs when business

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Speaker 3: conditions have been quite difficult for some time in the

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Speaker 3: manufacturing sector. I mean I was looking at the curtain

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Speaker 3: employment statistics for Q three just before we went for

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Speaker 3: Christmas holidays. I mean, employment is down quite by quite

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Speaker 3: a lot on a year on year basis, and it

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Speaker 3: doesn't look like manufacturers are going to add employment numbers

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Speaker 3: significantly anytime soon, at least until we see business conditions

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Speaker 3: start to start to improve. But what I want to say, yes,

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Speaker 3: that it's not uncommon for the PMI and actual output

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Speaker 3: data to not move in the same time. So when

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Speaker 3: you look at output data in the manufacturing sector. At

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Speaker 3: the beginning of the quarta, the data was quite good,

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Speaker 3: but the number that came out today was quite disappointing.

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Speaker 3: But that's said, even when you look at the quarter averhold,

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Speaker 3: it seems like output in the manufacturing sector actually continue

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Speaker 3: to increase in Q four.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting that, I mean it would seem then that

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Speaker 1: that would also underpend perhaps some of the optimism people

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Speaker 1: are producing a little bit more. And I was interested

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Speaker 1: that there seems to be a shortage of specialized skills.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so skills. It's a probably not just in the

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Speaker 3: manufacturering sector. I mean, if you look at the critical

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Speaker 3: skills visit that the government you know, tends to publish.

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Speaker 3: They also collaborate a lot with manufacturers. So that's why

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Speaker 3: you have things like visa reforms under paration willing gallach

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Speaker 3: to exactly address these sort of issues. So, yes, you're right,

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Speaker 3: the employment issue is not just a week activity story,

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Speaker 3: but it's also a skills shortage story.

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Speaker 1: So oh, thanks so much. Settles a care as an

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Speaker 1: economist at Abscess CIB twenty five minutes after six The

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Speaker 1: Money Show the Market. Norman mckeckney is an independent investor Norman,

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Speaker 1: good evening, good to chat again. There's quite a few

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Speaker 1: things going on in the metals markets, and I'm particularly

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Speaker 1: fascinated by silver. I haven't spent much time in my

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Speaker 1: life talking about silver, but certainly it's moving.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it is.

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Speaker 6: I think, just to summarize probably what's happened there, the

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Speaker 6: prices moved there very sharp. You certainly, if you look

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Speaker 6: at the gold silver ratio, silver in the short term

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Speaker 6: is really sharply outperformed gold. Gold obviously has done well

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Speaker 6: over the year, and I think what we've got there,

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Speaker 6: what we what we're seeing is that silver is used

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Speaker 6: as a reserve asset by banks. Basil trees allowed that

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Speaker 6: to happen, and I think there's been a lot of

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Speaker 6: people that have written paper on the back of the

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Speaker 6: silver holdings, and what we've had is there's probably more

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Speaker 6: paper out there than the physical gold, and you can

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Speaker 6: actually ask for physical delivery, and there's a shortage of inventory.

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Speaker 6: And what's happened is people have had to go and

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Speaker 6: borrow silver, so the lease rates to borrow silver have

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Speaker 6: moved up. And then the Chinese have also said they're

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Speaker 6: not selling silver into the market, and that's pushed the

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Speaker 6: price up, So it's probably a short term factor, but

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Speaker 6: you're interesting none the less. And we've seen a similar

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Speaker 6: sort of story in copper as well.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting how in so many metals all at the

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Speaker 1: same time, things are moving in ways that you wouldn't

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Speaker 1: have expected just a year ago exactly.

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Speaker 6: I think, you know, if you look at copper, the

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Speaker 6: issue there has been the tariffs that we're proposed in July.

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Speaker 6: That's or inventry moving to the States, which has stayed

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Speaker 6: there just probably on the back of data center and

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Speaker 6: passtation builds, which I require for AI. That's probably a

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Speaker 6: longer term factor. So they've probably got too much copper there.

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Speaker 6: And then we had the grasp of fertility and September

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Speaker 6: and the closure in December, and that's what saw the

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Speaker 6: copper price move up fairly sharply.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lack of.

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Speaker 6: Supply again, so that's push things up. I mean, the

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Speaker 6: counter there is oil, but don't know whether you want

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Speaker 6: to go into that.

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Speaker 1: Student we're talking about oil a lot because of what

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Speaker 1: happened over the weekend. Just on the copper story, I mean,

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Speaker 1: how long does it say at these prices some people

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Speaker 1: are predicting and certainly the Anglo Tech merger is all

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Speaker 1: around that. Essentially, the idea saying that, look, they're going

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Speaker 1: to you know that that's going to be the long

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Speaker 1: running metal for a longer term. Do you buy that?

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Speaker 1: I mean, do you see copper prices rising through the air?

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Speaker 6: I think it one looks at a short term obviously,

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Speaker 6: with the supply issues, maybe there is you know, still

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Speaker 6: a bit of upside, but it's not sustainable at these levels.

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Speaker 6: I think, you know, the whole issue has been if

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Speaker 6: you look at what the AI potential spend is, there's

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Speaker 6: a lot of data centers, there's a lot of past

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Speaker 6: days that are required just to keep and sustain these

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Speaker 6: AI buildouts. The issue that you've got is it's probably

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Speaker 6: longer term, so they've probably got too much in the inventory,

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Speaker 6: so that probably gets liquidate and it comes back into

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Speaker 6: the market. Nevertheless, in the longer term there's a positive

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Speaker 6: underlying demand. We can argue the toss about where AI

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Speaker 6: goes and what the demand is and what the sort

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Speaker 6: of financing of that is and are they making money

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Speaker 6: at this point in time. But I think longer term,

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Speaker 6: the fact is that there is a shortage of copper

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Speaker 6: supply and the demand will pick up over time that

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Speaker 6: you're likely to see prices being reasonably positive. However, I

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Speaker 6: don't think they stay at these levels that we're seeing

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Speaker 6: at the moment.

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Speaker 1: And platinum, particularly Norman. I mean, a strong start of

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Speaker 1: the year as you would sort of expect based on

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Speaker 1: what was happening towards the end of last year, how

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Speaker 1: far does it go.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think again, you know, it's difficulty to actually

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Speaker 6: get all the numbers, but essentially we've got a deficit.

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Speaker 6: This we know with platinum prices, if you go back

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Speaker 6: a year or so, we're probably almost half of what

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Speaker 6: they are now as was Palladian and so there was

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Speaker 6: no incentive to invest. And I think there hasn't been

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Speaker 6: any new investment in new minds bar probably Northern that

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Speaker 6: has put minds in, and that was a good number

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Speaker 6: of years ago. So if one look at it, as

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Speaker 6: the grades decline, as this supply out of those minds.

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Speaker 2: Decline, there is a deficit and I.

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Speaker 6: Think that's what's pushed the price up in the short term.

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Speaker 6: And then I think the move from the electric vehicles

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Speaker 6: to back to internal combustion engines with the subsidies going,

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Speaker 6: and then people also politicians allowing the VWS and other

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Speaker 6: manufacturers to not having to produce as many electrical vehicles

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Speaker 6: in terms of what was required by twenty thirty. That

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Speaker 6: they probably built in inventory and they realize that there

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Speaker 6: is a deficit so you don't be caught out. Rather

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Speaker 6: pay up for something that it is a part of

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Speaker 6: the total costs for the vehicle, but not a major cost.

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Speaker 6: And that's what's happened. I'd be interesting to see yourself

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Speaker 6: sustanal that is. But I think having a deficit there

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Speaker 6: probably just underpins where the price actually falls.

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Speaker 1: Back to Normanne, thanks so much, Independent investor, Ready to

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Speaker 1: appreciate the time. Bringing the time on the Money Show

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Speaker 1: to six thirty The Money Show on seven owns Monday

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Speaker 1: till Friday, six to am, seventeen minutes now to seven

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Speaker 1: the time. Well, you'll have heard so much conversation around

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Speaker 1: metal prices recently. You heard Norman and Keckney a few

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Speaker 1: moments ago. He was talking particularly about gold. We've been

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Speaker 1: speaking about gold. He was talking particularly about copper. We've

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Speaker 1: been talking about gold as well. And there are signs

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Speaker 1: now that the prices of both metals are going to

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Speaker 1: continue going up for quite some time. That will have

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Speaker 1: an impact on how the mining sector reacts on how

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Speaker 1: they spend their capital. Craig Brewer is a managing director

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Speaker 1: at cohed for Origination and Investment Banking at absas c

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Speaker 1: ib Craig, good evening, So we know why gold is

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Speaker 1: doing so well. It's partly about central bank selling their

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Speaker 1: dollars and buying gold, but what is driving the sudden

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Speaker 1: rally in copper prices?

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Stephen I thanks for this opportunity.

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Speaker 7: I think if you are two metals out there, gold

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Speaker 7: and copper have the clearest forward horizon in terms of

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Speaker 7: demand and expectations. Obviously gold, as you've mentioned, geopolitical risk

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Speaker 7: is underlying that and that will continue forwards the years

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Speaker 7: to come. In terms of copper, it is a very

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Speaker 7: much global GDP driven and at the same time it

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Speaker 7: is the catalyst with regards to energy transformation from evs

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Speaker 7: all the way through. At the same time, you've got

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Speaker 7: this massive capex in terms of these data centers, both

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Speaker 7: for storage and more particularly for AI and they require

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Speaker 7: a significant amount of copper. So if you look at

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Speaker 7: it with a copper from Latin America, all the Africa

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Speaker 7: in terms of Zambia and the DOOS there is a

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Speaker 7: deficit in terms of copper output as to what versus

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Speaker 7: copper need and trying to restore chugging along. You've seen

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Speaker 7: in the States their GDP is continuing and there's been

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Speaker 7: focused on defense today, et cetera. And all of those

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Speaker 7: electronic drones equipment to the light require copper. So as

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Speaker 7: you've seen, whilst EV vehicles have kind of tape it

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Speaker 7: or somewhat, eventually, why twenty thirty five et cetera, virtually

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Speaker 7: everything will be EV. So there's this massive underlying pull

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Speaker 7: for copper across a broad range of industries and that's

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Speaker 7: why I think you've seen copper breakthrough to a new

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Speaker 7: harboring thirteen thousand dollars a ton in the last couple

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Speaker 7: of days.

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Speaker 1: Then So unless someone invents something that can do what

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Speaker 1: copper does, or there's a massive AI smash, I mean

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Speaker 1: you can suddenly see why Anglo and Tech are doing

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Speaker 1: what they're doing.

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Speaker 7: Dirrect and that's the Anglo Tech that is clearly it

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Speaker 7: was a topper player as much as BHP looked at

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Speaker 7: Anglo eighteen months ago. And as you said, it's whilst

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Speaker 7: add of metals from anyone in all the way through

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Speaker 7: do have the same ability to transfer electrons. Copper is

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Speaker 7: stoll the most efficient in terms of both transfer and

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Speaker 7: effectively in costant the amount you need there are various

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Speaker 7: other metals, but then you need a lot more, which

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Speaker 7: means that then you can't put in terms of your tesla,

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Speaker 7: you can't streamline it can get just these very narrow ribbons.

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Speaker 7: In terms of the electrical harnesses, You've got to look

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Speaker 7: at something bigger with more weight. So it is unlikely,

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Speaker 7: and I'm not a chemical engineer, that there's going to

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Speaker 7: be anything to replace copper over the longer term.

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Speaker 1: Yeh, neither am I. But but the logic sounds good.

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Speaker 1: I've been fascinated by the deals we see in the

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Speaker 1: gold sector. So as you say golds on a sustained rally,

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Speaker 1: minds don't seem to be. I mean, you think one

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Speaker 1: of the responses to that would be to basically prospect more.

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Speaker 1: Now I understand, you know, it's such a long lead time.

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Speaker 1: You're probably looking at ten years in many countries and

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Speaker 1: very few places you could do it less and that

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Speaker 1: fine gold know that it's worth mining and get gold

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Speaker 1: out of it. But it's still interesting to see so

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Speaker 1: many deals in which minds are buying other miners.

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Speaker 7: Absolutely, and remember when you buy either miners in terms

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Speaker 7: of a group or the actual assets, even at a

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Speaker 7: product stage, often all the feasibility studies have been done.

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Speaker 7: There drilling programs, there's early capics, so your risk is

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Speaker 7: much lower, Whereas if you're doing total green fields, you've

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Speaker 7: actually got to go out and you've got a long

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Speaker 7: period of five to eight years in terms of that

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Speaker 7: exploration building up to your early works. So it's far

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Speaker 7: quicker and easier to go and acquire other assets or

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Speaker 7: gold companies. The challenge you've got at the moment is

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Speaker 7: at this gold price of four four fifty, it makes

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Speaker 7: it challenging in terms of acquisition prices. That's why you've

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Speaker 7: seen a couple of these gold consolidations or mergers. They're

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Speaker 7: done on a share basis, so no cash transfers or

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Speaker 7: there's a smaller amount of cash, because that makes it

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Speaker 7: easy for shareholders to except that they're going to be

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Speaker 7: ups and downs. The worst thing a shareholder wants is

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Speaker 7: that all mining companies, but in particular goals, you go

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Speaker 7: out on an acquisition spree and effectively the top of

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Speaker 7: the gold market and then goal declines of it, maybe

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Speaker 7: because of global stability, etc. Which is unlikely. You then

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Speaker 7: have a perod where your acquisition is earnings destructible, dilutive,

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Speaker 7: and that's what shareholders don't want. So they've seen this

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Speaker 7: in various cycles when mining houses have gone out on

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Speaker 7: these acquisitions sprees, only to regret it a couple of

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Speaker 7: years down the line.

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Speaker 1: So you would think with prices like this, particularly for

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Speaker 1: copper and gold, Africa would be at the center of

437
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 1: its both. But if there's no actual prospecting, then that's

438
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 1: not going to happen.

439
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 7: Remember that if you talk of that in terms of iscolation,

440
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 7: if you look at the West Africa Ghana that corridor,

441
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 7: there is still some exploration. In South Africa, there's much less.

442
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 7: But remember we have mind out a significant portion.

443
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 2: Of our reserves and resources.

444
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 7: But having said that, you've just seen West of it's

445
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 7: an Australian ASX listed company with a mind that just

446
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 7: raised the project finance and equity for just on the

447
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 7: other side of Soweto, you're starting to see that again.

448
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 7: But yes, in terms of raw exploration, that is extremely costly.

449
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 7: And remember when you go into some of the jurisdictions

450
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 7: in South Africa, and Marley is an example. You have

451
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 7: changing regimes, changing royalties, changing taxes, et cetera. The risk

452
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 7: factor is large and hence I think you see more

453
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 7: of the consolidation in the M and A coming through

454
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 7: than green Field's exploration.

455
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: Craig Brewer, thanks so much, really enjoyed that. Managing director

456
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: co head for Origination and Investment Banking at abscess cib

457
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 1: Ten minutes to seven.

458
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 8: The Money Show with Stephen Kuetas is brought to you

459
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 8: by ABSs CIB, a Pan African bank invested in your

460
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 8: story and the potential it can unlock because your story matters.

461
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 5: As the rested FSP.

462
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 1: Eight minutes and now to seven. Well Business Day reporting

463
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 1: this morning, the DTIC Minister Parkstwle confirming cast of the

464
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 1: Communications Regulator is looking at new regulations that would force

465
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: cell phone networks to roll over your data every month.

466
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 1: In other words, if you bought data for January, you

467
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 1: bought at the beginning of January, you bought a gigabyte

468
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 1: and you only used half of that. Instead of you

469
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 1: losing it at the end of month, as we've done

470
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 1: for years and years and years, you would actually keep it.

471
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 1: And you know, of course there's been a concerted campaign

472
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: to drive data costs down. Coquetsu Marty is the executive

473
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:02,360
Speaker 1: director at Amandla Dot Moby the big role in that campaign. Coquettes,

474
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: good evening. I mean, I think all of us have

475
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: grown moaned, complained about the lack of data rollover at

476
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: some stage. Is government now serious about making some kind

477
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 1: of change? Courquttal can you hear me? Oh yeah, I'm

478
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 1: going to put Cokettel back to our producer and just

479
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: see if we can sort that line out. I'm very

480
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 1: aware of the irony of the fact that we're talking

481
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: about communication and the guests on communication about cell phone networks.

482
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 1: It's suddenly unable to hear us. These things do happen,

483
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 1: as you know, and let's just see if we are

484
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 1: able to get Coquettes back on your radio and to

485
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: hear from her in just a moment. I do think

486
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: it's an important conversation that we will be having. Don't

487
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 1: forget as well. Of course, in a little while we'll

488
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: be looking at some other issues on the money shown,

489
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 1: particularly the idea of humanoid robots. I don't quite understand

490
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: why there's such a big fuss about them. I mean,

491
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: if you don't like humans. Fine, but I think most

492
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 1: of us do like humans. But I don't get the

493
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 1: point of trying to replace humans. That doesn't make any

494
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: sense to me. So sort of don't really understand. If

495
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,360
Speaker 1: you want a functional robot to do things for you,

496
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,959
Speaker 1: well then why don't you just go ahead and do that?

497
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: And it will probably involve wheels?

498
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 9: All right?

499
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: Coquettesumiti back with us now, the executive director at Amanda

500
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 1: dot Maurby coquetzal good evening. I mean, do you think

501
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: government is serious now about making some kind of change

502
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 1: to ensure that our data can roll over at the

503
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: end of the month.

504
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 10: Yes, there is an absolute seriousness. Ikasa had started the

505
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 10: process a while ago to change parts of the regulation

506
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 10: to enable this. The thing that we should be absolutely

507
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 10: cautious about though, in how this is implemented, is that

508
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 10: it shouldn't only benefit high income consumers, but low income

509
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 10: consumers as well, who tend to buy smaller bundles right

510
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 10: and are much more impacted by the inability to roll

511
00:27:58,760 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 10: over those bundles.

512
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 1: I mean, in a way we should preference smaller bundles

513
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 1: rather than bigger ones.

514
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 10: Absolutely, absolutely, So what tends to happen is low income

515
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 10: consumers by an hour of data or an hour a

516
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 10: day and so on. So in some instances, as we know,

517
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 10: when low reduction happens, we low load trading has been reduced,

518
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 10: but low reduction load reduction is still happening in many,

519
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 10: many townships of South Africa. What would then happen is

520
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 10: you've spent some of your last money. I mean, people

521
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 10: are talking about how they choose between buying a loaf

522
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 10: of bread and buying data, right, and then there's no

523
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 10: electricity and no network. So by the time the electricity

524
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 10: comes back, you've already lost the data that you would

525
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 10: have had. And so we should be fighting to ensure

526
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 10: that the benefit of this change particularly benefits these low

527
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 10: income consumers.

528
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: So coquetto min you'll know this better than I do.

529
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: But the cell phone companies have a particular model that's

530
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 1: based around time. So I wenter to my cell phone

531
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: provider and I saw that I could buy two gigabytes

532
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: that would be valid for three days for thirty four rand. Now,

533
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 1: two gigabytes for thirty four rands actually not a bad deal,

534
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: and I could probably you know, I could stream enough

535
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: music for a kind of two day party if I

536
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 1: wanted to do that on that amount, isn't the risk

537
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: that companies change their model and make that two gigabytes

538
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 1: much more expensive because it would be there will be

539
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: no time limit and the longer term consequences in fact,

540
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: that data becomes more expensive.

541
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 10: That is indeed one of the risks, and this is

542
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 10: why it should be carefully done.

543
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 8: Right.

544
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 10: I know a lot of people do not want data

545
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 10: to expire at all. You know that data should just

546
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 10: be you know, just run and run and ran. But

547
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 10: the other risk that it poses a path from what

548
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 10: you've just mentioned, is that the smaller NBI is no

549
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 10: incentive to keep the small innovative bundles that they have

550
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 10: introduced that low income consumers can afford disappear, because if

551
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 10: there is no expiry, then why would it be that

552
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 10: you have these differentiated bundle types that meet people at

553
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 10: these different financial resources.

554
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 4: Right.

555
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 10: And so when we talk about data and data expiry

556
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 10: and roll over, row over, it's not that we understand

557
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 10: it is not a perishable good, right, But what we

558
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 10: are saying is that it should throw over for the

559
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 10: same validity period. So if it was two days that

560
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 10: you had let it throw over for two days for

561
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 10: a certain amount of time, not indefinitely, because what we

562
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 10: cannot risk is impacting those smaller bundles we have a

563
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 10: costwise or the very existence, because that would in fact

564
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 10: make things harder for low income consumers and increase the

565
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 10: digital divide in South Africa.

566
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: So as a principle, you do accept the idea of

567
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: a time limit on how long you can use the

568
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: bundle for that particular reason.

569
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 10: Absolutely absolutely, And there are ways to do it that

570
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 10: ensure that don't prejet as consumers.

571
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 9: Right, So yeah, you could do it for if you

572
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 9: bought a.

573
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 10: Month bundle right aprils over for another month, but you

574
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 10: put a limit on how many mont it can run over.

575
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 10: But the moment it becomes indiffinite, low income consumers res

576
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 10: being harmed by it.

577
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: Sure, data costs have come down really quite significantly in

578
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 1: the last qual it five years, maybe a bit longer

579
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: than that. How do you think now we compare with

580
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 1: other countries? And I realize that nowadays, if someone wants

581
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: to watch a movie, they're probably going to wait or

582
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 1: watch their series or whatever it is, wait for the

583
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: time they walk past the known Wi Fi area because

584
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: there's so many more of them download it there and

585
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 1: then watch it later. I mean there are more options

586
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 1: than there used to be, partly because there is so

587
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: much more fiber around. How do our data costs compare now?

588
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: And I'm talking mobile data, so hard to.

589
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 10: Draw a comparison, right, and the drop war significant, but

590
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 10: it was just a starting point. What we should be

591
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 10: really concerned about is the move that mobile network operators

592
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 10: are making to monopolize the fiber space at the moment.

593
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 10: Right we've seen like requests for mergers or interest in

594
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 10: merging with certain companies. And part of this reason we

595
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 10: are seeing that right now is because as more people

596
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 10: off flow to your point, fiber becomes more accessible, it

597
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 10: is cheaper, and so we are seeing people offload they

598
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 10: used to fiber, right, And so the next space for

599
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 10: profiteering for these mobile network operators is in fiber, and

600
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 10: especially since twenty twenty, we've seen fiber become much more

601
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 10: accessible in township and that is only expanding everywhere we look,

602
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 10: and so we have to keep an eye that otherwise

603
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 10: we rest what they did in the mobile network space,

604
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 10: they will repeat it in fiber.

605
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 7: Two.

606
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: Very interesting point, Coquettop, Thanks so much. Coquetsu Merti, Executive

607
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: director at Amandla Dot Morby in a moment, Why is

608
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: everyone obsessed with humanoid robots? Aren't there enough of us

609
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 1: on two legs?

610
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 9: Are you?

611
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: With the Money Show? At seven o'clock?

612
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 9: The Money Show takes Thursday.

613
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: With the Consumer Electronics Show underway in Las Vegas in

614
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 1: the US and lots of conversations around AI, but also

615
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: around humanoid robots, Pumalella, zondies, Artach experts, Pumalella high that

616
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 1: good to talk to you again, A happy New Year,

617
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 1: and all of that. Why is everyone so obsessed by

618
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: humanoid robots? I don't get what they can do that

619
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: nothing else can do for me?

620
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 4: Hello?

621
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 9: Yeah, what it seems like this is the tech industries.

622
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 9: I suppose decision of what's next in the tech space, because,

623
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 9: for example, when every year starts, we look at what's

624
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,240
Speaker 9: going to be happening in that particular air and sometimes

625
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 9: you think back about two to three years when the

626
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 9: advancement in AI became what it is, and this was

627
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 9: a shock to everybody. And so this year we've been

628
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 9: told that. Uh and and actually the first event of

629
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,959
Speaker 9: the year is the Consumer Electronics Show that's taking place

630
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 9: in Las Vegas in the United States of America is

631
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 9: the first big text show of the and everybody is

632
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 9: talking about human robots and the text sector saying well,

633
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 9: this is the new big advancement in technology and they

634
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 9: should be helping us in whichever manner and way, and

635
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 9: we should wait for that for that time. So it's

636
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 9: I suppose it can be called the tax sectors a

637
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 9: way of saying, well, that there is some sort of

638
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 9: advancement that's taking place in what a s official intelligence

639
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 9: is going to be and what it's going to be

640
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 9: for us even in the home.

641
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 1: I mean, I grew up reading I don't know if

642
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 1: you've read them, the Isaac Asimov stories science fiction. They're

643
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 1: about robots. They come with laws so they can't harm

644
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 1: humans and all of that, and all of that is predicated.

645
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 1: It's based on a robot that actually looks like a human.

646
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: It has a face, all of those things. I mean,

647
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 1: I don't think we're ever going to have a robot

648
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,240
Speaker 1: like that. I think the human face is just simply

649
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 1: too unique. So still keep coming back to it. What

650
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,720
Speaker 1: kind of things are we talking about? Are we talking

651
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 1: about something that makes you a drink or something different?

652
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 9: Well, at the moment, it seems like just a robots

653
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 9: that are starting to fold your clothes for you, make

654
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 9: a meal for you, but it's still painfully low in

655
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 9: how they do it. And also I've been pitched as

656
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 9: machines that will work in factories like putting together as

657
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 9: a car brand that is saying that's in about twenty eighteen,

658
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 9: it's going to be putting together some car parts in

659
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 9: a factory out in Asia, and so they are as

660
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 9: said to be help us in the home as also

661
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 9: as workers in factory. But right now, from what we

662
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 9: seeing and what's been shown to us, it still does

663
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 9: it very painfully slows.

664
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 1: Well, look a robot will fold anything better than me,

665
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 1: so it's fine, and than I will too. What else

666
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: are we seeing at the Consumer Electronics Show? I mean

667
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:21,800
Speaker 1: it's a big showcase for the industry.

668
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 3: They're just about all sorts.

669
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 9: Really, Then, is advancement, for example in medicine that we

670
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 9: are we're seeing and how these machines are going to

671
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 9: perhaps help us breathe better if we have a certain

672
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 9: breathing conditions.

673
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 10: But it seems to be.

674
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 9: All at or a huge amount of it seems to

675
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 9: be a testing phase at the moment. It doesn't seem

676
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 9: like there's much that's new that's going out to the

677
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 9: market because you're also getting a lot of wearable technology

678
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 9: that's also being showcased. We've been talking about what wearable classes,

679
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 9: for example, can do for us in future. That's still there,

680
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 9: that's still being showcased, and also the conversion of what

681
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 9: you might have, whether it's your spectacles or whether it's

682
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 9: your it's your shape that you were converting it into

683
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 9: some smart technology as well that can do a lot

684
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 9: of these big brands I can do. But we do

685
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 9: know that rebel technology hasn't really taken off as much

686
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 9: as it's been it's been pitched in the past. And

687
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 9: also there's a lot of few car tech as well,

688
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 9: and these travelers vehicles that now also have technology that

689
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 9: enable or assist you to do some work as you

690
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 9: are heading to the office. I'm not sure how safe

691
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 9: that is because it's now a multifunction tool, that's what

692
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 9: they're telling us. So it's striving, but at the same

693
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 9: time it's a computer that's also helping you with certain

694
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 9: other tasks that you wouldn't have done.

695
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 1: When else are you going to listen to the radio?

696
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 1: We've also I mean grock so so many people are

697
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 1: worried about AI being used for different things and grock

698
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: AI seems to have been used to create child porn images,

699
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 1: and I mean, this is an engine that's based on Twitter.

700
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 9: X and also you yes, that's actually something that's law

701
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 9: makers in Europe are worried about. And but also if

702
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 9: you think about the platform itself X itself as Twitter,

703
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 9: it did not allow any adult content to be uploaded there.

704
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:25,280
Speaker 9: But when it became X, suddenly rules and regulations changed,

705
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 9: and suddenly there was a lot of nudity, There was

706
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 9: a lot of pornography that started to appear there. So

707
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 9: now again when you think about CROP, it's another a

708
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 9: platform that's owned by Ilan Musk, who also owns X

709
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 9: and uh, law makers in Europe are it that they're

710
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 9: people who managed to create some child pornography. AI child pornography.

711
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,800
Speaker 9: So now these are not humans, are not real children,

712
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 9: but they are kids in I suppose in an imagined

713
00:38:56,840 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 9: manner where someone went online and decided to UH to

714
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 9: create these images and this platform allowed it.

715
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how you stop AI from

716
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 1: doing that, and that for me is one of the

717
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,760
Speaker 1: scary things. I mean, it's incredibly dangerous.

718
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 9: But it's the platforms themselves now were because it ventures

719
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 9: into esex of it all because when you, for example,

720
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 9: look at the many laws that many countries could have,

721
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 9: is that look into this, they'd be looking at protection

722
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 9: of children who are humans, or they would look as

723
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:35,320
Speaker 9: protection of humans in general. Really and and and and

724
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 9: the person who whose visuals might have been shared on

725
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 9: social media. But in this case it's not a human,

726
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 9: which then means or it's not an existing human being.

727
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 9: It's someone went and drew an image, so which means

728
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 9: now that new or normals need to be drawn up

729
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 9: and they and they, and this needs to be done

730
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 9: pretty quickly because when you think about it, when you

731
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 9: look at it, when a child looks at it, and

732
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 9: also what it does to the minds of children which

733
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 9: might see images that look like them and see that

734
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 9: as normal behavior because they can't differentiate.

735
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: It's incredibly scary. I mean normally, I mean, as you say,

736
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: laws look at protecting humans, I mean you're sort of

737
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 1: protecting society in this case and not individual humans. I

738
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 1: do get a sense, sipul Malleia. I mean everyone talks

739
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: about AI all the time, and I've seen so many

740
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 1: sort of bits of commentary across my email saying this

741
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,320
Speaker 1: is the year of AI, this is the era it

742
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 1: changes your workplace. There is still a part of me

743
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 1: that goes yeah, but only a.

744
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 9: Bit yes, because you still need a human hand, like

745
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 9: what you mentioned earlier about, for example, the human faces

746
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 9: that are creating these human old robots and or what's

747
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:51,479
Speaker 9: unique about the human face, and a I still can't

748
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 9: really replicate it be replicated to mimic a human to

749
00:40:56,239 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 9: that extent. So even with the tasks that A does,

750
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 9: a human still needs to give an instruction to say

751
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 9: do this, which means you still need a human to

752
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:10,280
Speaker 9: do the work and to give the instruction to AI

753
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 9: to do a certain thing faster, let's say, like doing research,

754
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 9: because a human is to say research this for me,

755
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 9: and then it does the research. It then brings it

756
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 9: back up, and as we've discussed in the past, sometimes

757
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 9: it's not as great as the work that the human

758
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 9: would have done, at least for now.

759
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 1: No sure, see Pumalella, thank you Pumalella, Zondie, do you

760
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: appreciated our tech experts? On The Money Show? Eighteen minutes

761
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 1: after seven.

762
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 9: The Money Show Small Business Focus.

763
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,720
Speaker 1: Small Business Focus is brought to you by Capitech startup

764
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: or scale up with Capitech the business bank for everyone. Well, normally,

765
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 1: when you speak to the owner of a small company

766
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 1: and they say they're going to export to other markets,

767
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 1: I mean I think many might often think, well, look

768
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: they're going to Europe or the US. But now there's

769
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: a strong argument that in fact we should be looking

770
00:41:56,600 --> 00:42:00,760
Speaker 1: more into Africa. Claid Orton Tentwe is the managing director

771
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 1: Advantage Advisory and host of the Psycho Bis Impact podcast

772
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: cred or Good Evening. You suggest smaller firms should really

773
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: be looking into Africa. We know the market is huge.

774
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 1: How difficult is it to get your goods into those

775
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 1: markets into and to get access to the market.

776
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 4: Good experience spirits. It's actually that compluments same year to

777
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 4: yeah seven, Yeah, Look number one, I think what we

778
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 4: need to to if you bring the conduct together, is

779
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 4: that if you look at the intra African trade, it

780
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 4: is around just below twenty percent. So therefore what that

781
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 4: means that means the countries we see in Africa trading

782
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 4: amongst each other, is that that rate is quite low

783
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 4: compared to other continents in terms of how they're trading

784
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,720
Speaker 4: amongst each You're looking at about sixty to seventy percent.

785
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 4: So therefore, at the heart of the successful jet Into

786
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 4: submits held last year, you're a scene or your had

787
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 4: quite a lot some of the task forces around to

788
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:11,800
Speaker 4: say how do we really promote the African growth and development?

789
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:17,720
Speaker 4: And therefore them is as well to collaborate with big corporates.

790
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 4: They were very very good points that were shad around that,

791
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 4: and it is an opportunity that the South africanism Is

792
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 4: have to take the advantage of that, have to really say, look,

793
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 4: how do we scale further? We know that in terms

794
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 4: of the geopolitical risks that are actually happening in other continents. Therefore,

795
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 4: most of the South african ism Is therefore have to

796
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 4: really start to look at how do you partner with

797
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 4: some of the local players or either some of the

798
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 4: African players to penetrate literally in those particular countries. So therefore,

799
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 4: that's why it's very important that it's not only just

800
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 4: you look at Africa is either so much international partners. However,

801
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 4: you look at just the regional integration where just you

802
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 4: moving your goods from just another region to another region.

803
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 4: The moment we start to look at Africa in that

804
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 4: particular way and the moment we put the narrative that

805
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 4: Africa is also developing country and we as Africans we

806
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 4: have to beat on it. Therefore we have a very

807
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 4: good chance that we will continue to grow the.

808
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 1: Secondermy So a large part of this obviously is around

809
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: the sort of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement supposed

810
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: to make things easier. Does it actually do that?

811
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,879
Speaker 4: And and and and and and still in that's that's

812
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,280
Speaker 4: the most important part and always the people. The African

813
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 4: Continental Free Trade Area, what it does. It aims to

814
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:49,280
Speaker 4: create this single market of goods and services across Africa,

815
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:52,680
Speaker 4: and we are talking about the market of about one

816
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:57,840
Speaker 4: point four billion population right and try to really reduce

817
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 4: some of these trade barriers and also this economic integration

818
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 4: amongst each other. And that is one of the biggest

819
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 4: issues on the challenge is that most African businesses or

820
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:12,919
Speaker 4: South African businesses have had to share to say look

821
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 4: for us to move our goods from South Africa to

822
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 4: Kenya or to DRC. The issues around the infrastructure, the

823
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 4: issues around border management, and that's what the f CFTA

824
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 4: is actually trying to resolve. And we have started to

825
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 4: see some very good track record some kickoff, especially in

826
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:36,320
Speaker 4: twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four, really coming in

827
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five as well, some of the trade

828
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 4: between some of these countries. About forty seven foot eight

829
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 4: countries have signed some of the agreements in terms of

830
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 4: let these countries start to trade, let some of the

831
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 4: tariff be removed on some of the particular goods. And

832
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 4: therefore the moment some of the sms start to understand

833
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 4: what the af CFTA tries to do and how you

834
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 4: keep it up lives. If the manufacturerer, for instance, to

835
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 4: move some way ship goods from South Africa to another country,

836
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 4: you realize that you are early to capture sub of

837
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 4: these markets before someone else from other continuous come and

838
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 4: capture these markets.

839
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 1: Is it based to do it through e commerce? I

840
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 1: mean is digital the way?

841
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 4: Well? Absolutely, there's a report there was sd stiven by

842
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 4: Mistra and there was connected as well with take a

843
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 4: lot that sad. Look, there's a huge opportunity when it

844
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 4: comes to online retail market that is really anticipated or

845
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 4: expected to be above one children. But for that to

846
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 4: be unlocked you need a very good public and private

847
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 4: partnerships for them to really unlock this and therefore, you know,

848
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 4: anyone who plays within e commerce, anyone who plays within

849
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 4: you know, health tech or outgro tech. Those are the

850
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 4: comple that were kept our lives because at an infrastructure

851
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,439
Speaker 4: level it becomes the to move some of these goods.

852
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 4: But if you have access, for instance, with e commerce,

853
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 4: what it does It gives you market access not only

854
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 4: South Africa, but two different markets.

855
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 2: And therefore any other.

856
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 4: Sm is that is within, that is playing within the

857
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 4: digital economy, it still's a very good chance to capture

858
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 4: this market.

859
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 1: So I mean if you said to me, Stephen, go

860
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:25,360
Speaker 1: to Lagos, yeah, I kind of wouldn't know where to

861
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 1: start of I's going to sell steering whils, Yeah I would.

862
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 1: I would need to go and find I don't know,

863
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 1: probably my friend's neighbor's previous starg o and his friend

864
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 1: and tap them on the shoulder. I mean, it's important

865
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 1: to work with local people, right, Yeah.

866
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 4: We know some more fast South African you know big

867
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:48,320
Speaker 4: corporates that have tried to expand it to Africa. We

868
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 4: we have to be realistic that to access and operate

869
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 4: in Africa, it's not that easy.

870
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 5: Right.

871
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 4: However, when you look and you study, what are some

872
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 4: of the reasons some of the big businesses have sailed

873
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 4: in these particular countries. At the heart of that one

874
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 4: has always been the relationship or the collaboration with the

875
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 4: local players and the investment that you have to make

876
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 4: to get the right partners right understand the lay of

877
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 4: the land, that understands the value shame of that particular country.

878
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 4: And that's one of those things that I as an

879
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 4: you're about to move to another country, we're about to

880
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,320
Speaker 4: move your goods. Make sure that you do your appropriate

881
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 4: your diligion, make sure that you identify good partners that

882
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 4: you're going to partner with.

883
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 2: There are some big businesses that we have the Life of.

884
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 4: Multitude, they've done extremely well in Africa, but at the

885
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 4: heart of that has always been the fact that they've

886
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 4: managed to pattern with some good key players. So also

887
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 4: what is important it's not just about just moving to

888
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 4: another country, but identify some of the countries that have

889
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 4: high growth markets and don't just move in is but

890
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 4: pilot for like a year or two before we are

891
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 4: fully concentrated in those particular countries. And the more you

892
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 4: do is that such when you start to understand Africa

893
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 4: and the importance around the local partnerships that you have

894
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 4: falls with some of the local agents in those particular countries.

895
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 4: But it is not an is market. It needs a

896
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 4: very good due diligence. It needs you to have a

897
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 4: very good risk a strategy and you implement that and

898
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:19,720
Speaker 4: you monitor that properly.

899
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 1: Sole Yeah, do you, I mean what kind of pace

900
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: would you go at? I must say my my slightly

901
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 1: cautious nature would probably go sort of big toe and

902
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 1: no further at the start.

903
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:37,720
Speaker 4: Yes, absolutely, you you're that small and and your scale strategically,

904
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:42,320
Speaker 4: so it's about piloting fast to some of your products

905
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 4: and the goods if they're going to be well received properly,

906
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:49,800
Speaker 4: so they're going to be well taken across and you

907
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 4: understand some of the players, you understand the religion. So

908
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 4: what that does It also helps you to get the

909
00:49:55,560 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 4: experience around that particular market. And because the moment you

910
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 4: come in, honestly, it's different to do a good diligence

911
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 4: from a laptop unless you actually get into the market.

912
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:14,320
Speaker 4: You experience this, you get to understand those markets. So

913
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 4: therefore that is a very important element. But use that

914
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:21,399
Speaker 4: small you know, one step at a time. You'll find

915
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:23,439
Speaker 4: that in the next two or three years you're able

916
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 4: to understand the market and that's when they can be

917
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 4: able to skate fully.

918
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 1: It's so interesting because the opportunity is massive, and you

919
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 1: would think, considering where we are as an economy, uh

920
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 1: and kind of the developed nature of our economy, that's

921
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,360
Speaker 1: surely what we would do is we would be expanding

922
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 1: into the rest of Africa more than anyone else.

923
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, you've thought on a stiven and I was talking

924
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 4: to I've show this before the ladies that I interviewed

925
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 4: in the podcast and watch your search. Mean what is

926
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:59,320
Speaker 4: interesting is that is seaper for hair to export goods

927
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 4: either to Europe or to Asia, then to move or

928
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 4: to export goods in Africa. And the heart of that

929
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,479
Speaker 4: is all about the costs around the cost of moving

930
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 4: some of these goods. And the heart of that is

931
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 4: about the border management that you find that you're going

932
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 4: to spend through four days around the borders to actually

933
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 4: pass over. It's also about just the road infrastructure or

934
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 4: the real infrastructure. And therefore that way again we have

935
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 4: to be heavy and we have to emphasize and put

936
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 4: pressure on the politician when it comes to the African

937
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 4: Continental Free Trade Area to be implemented, to really move

938
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,840
Speaker 4: and to move this narrative that Africa is so difficult

939
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 4: to do business in, but it should be something that

940
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 4: we are also betting on this continent because we can

941
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 4: see what is happening in other continents and of course

942
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:53,719
Speaker 4: they're starting to really group together and trained amongst each

943
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 4: other some of those countries, for instance in Asia and

944
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 4: in Europe. And therefore if Africa is well, does it

945
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 4: do that? You find that in the last five for

946
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 4: ten years, we still have the same story where we

947
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 4: say Africa is a potential, but we never realize that potential.

948
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 4: So it all bought down to how African governments really

949
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 4: you know, get into not as your site, by the

950
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 4: into implementation.

951
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,240
Speaker 1: Thanks so much. Joan credo On twenty is the managing

952
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:23,720
Speaker 1: director the Advantage Advisory and host of the Psycho Busy

953
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 1: Impact podcast.

954
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 10: The Money Show, Investment School.

955
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 1: Well time for Investment School, and the question tonight for

956
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 1: Investment School is whether or not we're about to enter

957
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 1: another commodities super cycle? What am I even talking about? Well,

958
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 1: thankfully Vincent Anthony Raja understands that he's the CEO and

959
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:45,600
Speaker 1: co founder of Differential Capital.

960
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:46,359
Speaker 5: Vincent good evening.

961
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 1: Good to see you again, Happy New Year and all

962
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 1: of that.

963
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, happy to you and all of that, Stephen, thanks

964
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 5: for having me.

965
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 1: Okay, So, firstly, when we talk about a commodity supercycle,

966
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:56,839
Speaker 1: what do we mean?

967
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 5: Okay, what we're talking about here, I guess is the

968
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:06,360
Speaker 5: a commodity is generally when we refer to as mind goods,

969
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 5: you know, and sometimes people also tend to include agricultural

970
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 5: produce in there. But I think when it comes to

971
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 5: when you add supercycle or cycle to that, generally you're

972
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:21,440
Speaker 5: talking about mind items. So we're talking about precious metals

973
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 5: based metals like you know, copper and those kinds of things,

974
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 5: and also the bulks as well.

975
00:53:28,120 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so we're talking about a cycle in which

976
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 1: the price of as we've seen with gold, with copper,

977
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,399
Speaker 1: with silver, with palladium, with platinum, all of those things

978
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 1: are going up at the same time. Sure, why would

979
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 1: they go up at the same time if they have

980
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 1: such different uses. So platinum we're always told it's all

981
00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 1: about the transition from internal combustion engines to electric cars. Gold,

982
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 1: we're told is because central banks are selling their dollars

983
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 1: and buying gold with it because of well, we know why.

984
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 1: And silver it's because something's happening in China and they're

985
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:05,319
Speaker 1: not putting extra capacity on the market. Why would all

986
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 1: of this be happening when all of these metals are

987
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 1: so different.

988
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 5: I think, while the metals are generally all different, and

989
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:15,720
Speaker 5: we've got to park golder side because that's a slightly

990
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:19,160
Speaker 5: different one, but generally all the others have a heavy

991
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 5: industrial use. Most of them. A large component is industrial.

992
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 5: Sometimes jewelry and other things, but there's a large component

993
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 5: it's industrial. And if we go back to the last

994
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 5: commodity cycle, I remember actually seeing the start of it

995
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 5: by in a national geographic magazine where this journalist had

996
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 5: done a great piece going to China and documenting the

997
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 5: start of these massive factories and starting to comment that,

998
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 5: you know, if this continues, there could be something big here.

999
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 5: And that's exactly what panned out. So even though we

1000
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:54,800
Speaker 5: had let's call it really loose monetary policy, everything that

1001
00:54:54,960 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 5: led up to the GFC, but what happened towards end

1002
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 5: of the GFC is China's just to be.

1003
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: Clear, you're talking about the global financial the.

1004
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 5: Global financial crisis. You know that of two thousand and seven,

1005
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,600
Speaker 5: two thousand and eight, China's economy really took over and

1006
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:16,320
Speaker 5: everything in terms of manufacturing, they became dominant in and

1007
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 5: as a result, they required more steel to build bridges,

1008
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 5: et cetera, put in more electricity, more copper, and as

1009
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 5: a result, all of the commodity demand increased around the

1010
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 5: world and you know, places from Australia to South Africa,

1011
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 5: commodity producing countries were scrambling to supply China and that

1012
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 5: kind of drove all of those prices at the same time,

1013
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 5: and that's what drove that up.

1014
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:44,359
Speaker 1: Then at the same time, this was in the sort

1015
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:46,759
Speaker 1: of embaky era. Typical South Africa is always by the

1016
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:50,400
Speaker 1: president and everyone will talk about that era is a

1017
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 1: time when the economy grew. This was part of that.

1018
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 5: Definitely. I think if one looks back at South African history,

1019
00:55:56,680 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 5: it's the commodity cycle that drives our economy. As much

1020
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:03,279
Speaker 5: as you want to, you know, assign it to a

1021
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 5: president or political or you know, other things, but the

1022
00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 5: reality in South Africa's case, the commodity cycles has a

1023
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:14,760
Speaker 5: big party play. There's another important point to consider, Steven,

1024
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 5: is that when we think about the commodity cycle, it's

1025
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:21,360
Speaker 5: also linked to let's call it the business capex cycle.

1026
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,800
Speaker 5: And here I'm talking about capital expenditure that you know,

1027
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 5: big corporations do when they build factories, et cetera. And

1028
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:33,719
Speaker 5: what tends to happen is, you know, big businesses also

1029
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 5: go through cycles where they invest and they underinvest. And

1030
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:40,919
Speaker 5: when you go through a period where you've been under

1031
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 5: investing in your equipment, et cetera for too long, it

1032
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 5: can very quickly become a case of being having you know,

1033
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:52,000
Speaker 5: not enough capacity for a growing population or things like that.

1034
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 5: So what we see around the world right now is

1035
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:58,520
Speaker 5: you know, economies like India and Vietnam growing very quickly

1036
00:56:58,719 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 5: and large parts of the population, huge volumes of people

1037
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:04,720
Speaker 5: moving from let's call it lower middle to middle class

1038
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:08,160
Speaker 5: and consuming a lot more goods and pushing up demand.

1039
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 5: And what we've seen over the last I would say

1040
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 5: fifteen years, is the capital expenditure in minds as an example,

1041
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:19,800
Speaker 5: has dropped substantially. You know, one just has to think

1042
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 5: about South Africa. I mean, not too many not too

1043
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 5: much mining activity going on, and there's other reasons for that,

1044
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 5: but you know, that's generally something a trend that's been

1045
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 5: around the world. The amount of capital expenditure in building

1046
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:35,320
Speaker 5: new minds dropped. Now, the funny thing about a mind

1047
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 5: is that you can't just dig the hole and pull

1048
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:41,040
Speaker 5: the commodity out tomorrow. It takes years. So I read

1049
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 5: somewhere for copper, mind can take between seven to twelve

1050
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 5: years to finally get it up and running from the

1051
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:50,000
Speaker 5: moment you discover the or to when you pull it out.

1052
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 5: So what tends to happen is you go through a

1053
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 5: cycle where you underinvest for a long period of time,

1054
00:57:57,080 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 5: and all of a sudden there's sort of maybe demographic

1055
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:06,400
Speaker 5: reasons for increases in demand or population growth or in

1056
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:09,880
Speaker 5: this case, we're seeing many economies start to transition to

1057
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 5: higher economic status, and at the same time we're seeing

1058
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,800
Speaker 5: this major change in technology, which is the AI boom.

1059
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:21,760
Speaker 5: All of that converging means that there's a demand for

1060
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 5: pretty much anything industrial mental related. And then on the

1061
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 5: other hand, you've now got minds that we haven't invested

1062
00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 5: in globally for the last fifteen years. So when you

1063
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:37,240
Speaker 5: have the shortage, the prices tend to rise extremely and

1064
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 5: then that's what we're starting to see.

1065
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:42,600
Speaker 1: So I mean, platinum is a great example where I

1066
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:44,919
Speaker 1: think a northern Platinm's the only one that's really brought

1067
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 1: new minds on recently. Everyone else hasn't, and that's actually

1068
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:51,960
Speaker 1: created the sortage genet. I mean, I still find it

1069
00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 1: fascinating that there's suddenly a moment when the market realizes

1070
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:59,880
Speaker 1: this and suddenly the price shoots up, even though where

1071
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 1: everything was yesterday in terms of you know, platinum stocks

1072
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 1: relative to demand was x on Monday. On Tuesday, it's

1073
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 1: still x, but the platinum price has gone up because

1074
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:11,200
Speaker 1: everyone's just realized it.

1075
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 5: Kind of that's kind of it. It's I've noticed with commodities,

1076
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:17,680
Speaker 5: it's a slow burn. I worked with a guy called

1077
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 5: Dr David Davis probably seven years ago at when I

1078
00:59:23,320 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 5: was at one of the larger banks, and he wrote

1079
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:28,960
Speaker 5: a great piece about the coming shortage in the platinum market.

1080
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:30,680
Speaker 5: And people were talking about it for a long time,

1081
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:34,439
Speaker 5: that the market was undersupplied and that the mines weren't

1082
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:37,560
Speaker 5: being you know, built to build to replace that supply.

1083
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 5: But in the case of platinum, there's also been this

1084
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 5: theme that because there's going to be this transition to

1085
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:46,280
Speaker 5: electric vehicles, you know, the demand was going to fall away,

1086
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:50,280
Speaker 5: not realizing that even hybrids plug in hybrids tend to

1087
00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 5: actually use a lot more platinum than you know, people

1088
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:55,440
Speaker 5: thought in the past. So all of a sudden, you

1089
00:59:55,560 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 5: have again an exogenous factor like the European Union in deciding, well,

1090
01:00:01,240 --> 01:00:02,720
Speaker 5: we're going to kick the can down the road with

1091
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 5: regards to their transition plants. And now you have a

1092
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 5: problem because you have a large economy that's decided to

1093
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 5: defer their transition. And we all know that the you know,

1094
01:00:13,480 --> 01:00:16,280
Speaker 5: things like platinum and particular roodium if you look at that,

1095
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 5: that's now second on the US critical Minerals list. So

1096
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:25,040
Speaker 5: when you've got something that that's extremely rare and very

1097
01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:28,800
Speaker 5: difficult to get out the ground. And there's another important factor, Stephen,

1098
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 5: which is I would say unique to this cycle, is

1099
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 5: that for many commodities, you know, for the past one

1100
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:39,800
Speaker 5: hundred years, a lot of commodities were you could do

1101
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 5: what's called open cast mining because the resources close to

1102
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:46,440
Speaker 5: the ground. What we're starting to see in many important

1103
01:00:46,480 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 5: metals copper, gold, platinum, et cetera. The next all bodies

1104
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:53,720
Speaker 5: are deep under the ground, which also means the cost

1105
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:57,120
Speaker 5: of getting them up is also going up. So again

1106
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 5: the complexity in providing these codes to industry has become

1107
01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:06,760
Speaker 5: vastly more difficult than it was, say for the last

1108
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 5: hundred years. You know, Copper is a great example where

1109
01:01:09,680 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 5: in the nineteen hundreds, it is sort of the end

1110
01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 5: of nineteen hundred thereabout, copper was very expensive to get

1111
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 5: and then all of a sudden, huge improvements and technology exploration,

1112
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 5: et cetera. The price of copper collapsed. And now if

1113
01:01:24,320 --> 01:01:26,240
Speaker 5: you look at the last fifteen years, I think the

1114
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:30,320
Speaker 5: one of the most recent mind discoveries in the US.

1115
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:33,400
Speaker 5: As an example, there's a place called resolution copper that

1116
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:36,280
Speaker 5: that copper is two kilometers underneath the ground, which is

1117
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 5: not typical for let's call it the last hundred years

1118
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 5: of copper mining and.

1119
01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:42,440
Speaker 1: Half the depth of where your new platinum is going

1120
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 1: to be in Rustenburg.

1121
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:47,600
Speaker 5: Exactly, you know, And then that's a that's platinum. And

1122
01:01:47,600 --> 01:01:49,120
Speaker 5: if you think about gold, you know, you've got some

1123
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 5: of the mines and particularly in South Africa, the deepest

1124
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 5: mines on earth. So I think that's that all of

1125
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:57,440
Speaker 5: that coming together and will get to gold in the second.

1126
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:00,560
Speaker 5: But when we talk about the rest of the indust metals,

1127
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:04,200
Speaker 5: you have this combination of increased demand and the fact

1128
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:06,800
Speaker 5: that people haven't been investing in minds for a long time.

1129
01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:10,120
Speaker 5: It's something that gives me great excitement. You know, when

1130
01:02:10,160 --> 01:02:13,480
Speaker 5: I think about the potential for South Africa is if

1131
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:18,000
Speaker 5: the sustained high prices continue, I think we're in for

1132
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:21,840
Speaker 5: hopefully more investment into a sector that can employ a

1133
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:24,120
Speaker 5: lot of people, which is something we desperately need.

1134
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:24,920
Speaker 7: M No.

1135
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:28,440
Speaker 1: I mean, the potential is huge. It's interesting to me

1136
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:31,840
Speaker 1: that we have several things happening together, which is also

1137
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 1: what happened the last time, even though they're unrelated. So

1138
01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 1: there's no real relationship between the transition to the decision

1139
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:43,959
Speaker 1: by the European Union to delay the transition to electric cars,

1140
01:02:44,000 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 1: which stimulates demand for platinum, and the AI boom, which

1141
01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:52,720
Speaker 1: stimulates demand for copper. Does this happen quite often where

1142
01:02:53,720 --> 01:02:55,840
Speaker 1: lots of commodities suddenly go up and value at the

1143
01:02:55,840 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 1: same time. I can understand the China example that we

1144
01:02:58,800 --> 01:03:01,680
Speaker 1: spoke about in the two thous because that makes sense

1145
01:03:01,720 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 1: because it's such a big country and it needed so

1146
01:03:03,800 --> 01:03:06,120
Speaker 1: many things. That economy needed so many things at the

1147
01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:09,680
Speaker 1: same time. In this case, though these things are I mean,

1148
01:03:09,720 --> 01:03:13,520
Speaker 1: they're they're tenuously related, but they're not directly related at all.

1149
01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:18,920
Speaker 5: Not directly, but I also think this trend of not

1150
01:03:19,120 --> 01:03:22,200
Speaker 5: wanting to invest in mining. If you look at many

1151
01:03:22,360 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 5: large investment banks, they hardly lend to miners anymore. You know,

1152
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 5: the issues around carbon footprint of mining, et cetera. So

1153
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:34,000
Speaker 5: there's been a lot of similar reasons as to why

1154
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:37,000
Speaker 5: we haven't invested in the supply chain of these commodities

1155
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 5: for a long time, sometimes the hope that they would

1156
01:03:40,680 --> 01:03:43,600
Speaker 5: be recycling and things like that, which haven't panned out

1157
01:03:43,680 --> 01:03:46,919
Speaker 5: as people would have thought. So I think when you've

1158
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:50,800
Speaker 5: when you've got that, and I find it's interesting with humanity.

1159
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 5: It's some of these trends are long term and you

1160
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 5: can see them coming.

1161
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:55,400
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1162
01:03:56,360 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 5: You know, I've been reading PHP's annual. They've got a

1163
01:03:59,760 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 5: great piece that they write about, you know, commodity economics,

1164
01:04:04,320 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 5: and they've been talking about these shortages in many of

1165
01:04:07,800 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 5: these commodities for a long time. But as you said, Stephen,

1166
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:15,640
Speaker 5: you know when you're approaching something that's in deficit and

1167
01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 5: you suddenly have one or two things moved, especially in

1168
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:21,320
Speaker 5: the demand side, because that's ten that tends to be

1169
01:04:21,400 --> 01:04:23,960
Speaker 5: what drives it is when people realize, oh, hang on,

1170
01:04:24,040 --> 01:04:25,880
Speaker 5: we're going to have to build few more data centers

1171
01:04:25,960 --> 01:04:28,720
Speaker 5: and two years from now there's a big shortage. That's

1172
01:04:28,760 --> 01:04:30,560
Speaker 5: what causes the panic and the squeeze.

1173
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 1: And that's what's so interesting, because you talk about reading

1174
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:37,760
Speaker 1: in the National Geographic article which suddenly made you realize

1175
01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:40,200
Speaker 1: these superfactories or gigafactories in China, we're going to be

1176
01:04:40,280 --> 01:04:43,880
Speaker 1: a thing. We've known about ai let's call it for

1177
01:04:43,960 --> 01:04:48,160
Speaker 1: three years. Okay, it's only quite recently that everybody's made

1178
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:51,880
Speaker 1: the link to copper. And again we'll talk about gold

1179
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 1: after the break, because once we get they will never

1180
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:57,760
Speaker 1: get off it. But the same with platinum. People suddenly

1181
01:04:58,000 --> 01:05:01,480
Speaker 1: realized it was it should have been foreseeable, and yet

1182
01:05:01,560 --> 01:05:02,480
Speaker 1: it wasn't foreseen.

1183
01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:09,080
Speaker 5: Maybe I could just add one more point, Stephen. You

1184
01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:10,920
Speaker 5: know you've got the ones that we're talking about that

1185
01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:14,680
Speaker 5: are squeezing upwards. But there's one slight difference this time around.

1186
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:17,200
Speaker 5: Have you noticed how oil prices are going.

1187
01:05:17,160 --> 01:05:17,640
Speaker 2: The other way?

1188
01:05:18,480 --> 01:05:21,160
Speaker 5: So I think in the case of oil here we

1189
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:24,840
Speaker 5: also have a long term trend that's been observable declining

1190
01:05:24,960 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 5: use of demand slightly and not declining, but slower growth

1191
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:32,840
Speaker 5: in demand. But you know, again, I think this is

1192
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:36,080
Speaker 5: part of the geopolitical games that are happening. If you

1193
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:39,960
Speaker 5: have a country like Venezuela ramping up production, I mean

1194
01:05:40,520 --> 01:05:42,520
Speaker 5: I read somewhere the other day that you know, the

1195
01:05:42,760 --> 01:05:45,520
Speaker 5: South America can ramp up production for you know, another

1196
01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:48,640
Speaker 5: ten million barrels a day. So this time round we

1197
01:05:48,720 --> 01:05:51,320
Speaker 5: have something interesting happening. Is you have, yes, all of

1198
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:53,760
Speaker 5: you that the longer term trends that you said, like

1199
01:05:53,840 --> 01:06:00,600
Speaker 5: AI population growth, but for some reason, you know, capital

1200
01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:04,120
Speaker 5: markets I'm talking about investors here haven't been quick to

1201
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:06,360
Speaker 5: go out there and invest in new minds to supply

1202
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:08,439
Speaker 5: these things. It's been a wait and see, wait and see.

1203
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:11,200
Speaker 5: And maybe that's a fair point. You know, I was

1204
01:06:11,280 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 5: actually looking at some economics for some of these commodities,

1205
01:06:15,240 --> 01:06:18,160
Speaker 5: and you know, again, for platinum, it's almost like you

1206
01:06:18,320 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 5: need it to be above two thousand for minds to

1207
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:25,320
Speaker 5: start thinking about sinking a new shaft. In the case

1208
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:27,760
Speaker 5: of copper, you need copper to get to thirteen fourteen

1209
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:30,920
Speaker 5: thousand dollars a ton to start thinking about increasing supply.

1210
01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:33,520
Speaker 5: So it's kind of like you almost needed this panic

1211
01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:37,240
Speaker 5: and this increase, and if you look at previous cycles,

1212
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:41,360
Speaker 5: this could only be the beginning because you know, sure,

1213
01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:44,040
Speaker 5: the prices go up now, but it's not like tomorrow

1214
01:06:44,080 --> 01:06:45,360
Speaker 5: we're going to have all of a sudden a whole

1215
01:06:45,360 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 5: lot of new platinum out on the streets. Silver is

1216
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:51,480
Speaker 5: another great example where yes it's kind of linked to gold.

1217
01:06:52,120 --> 01:06:54,720
Speaker 5: But Stephen, if you notice what's happening with the demand

1218
01:06:54,760 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 5: for solar panels as an example, that's become a key

1219
01:06:58,960 --> 01:07:00,400
Speaker 5: driver of the demand for silver.

1220
01:07:01,960 --> 01:07:03,080
Speaker 1: Oh why.

1221
01:07:05,840 --> 01:07:08,800
Speaker 5: I wonder in South Africa we've solved all of our

1222
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:12,280
Speaker 5: load chatting problems. But nonetheless, I think the demand for

1223
01:07:12,480 --> 01:07:16,080
Speaker 5: for solar panels and and and the transition means that

1224
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:19,000
Speaker 5: you know, a metal like silver, which I think there's

1225
01:07:19,000 --> 01:07:21,640
Speaker 5: a there's a good example of where I don't think.

1226
01:07:21,960 --> 01:07:23,840
Speaker 5: I think there's only a few like one, one or

1227
01:07:23,840 --> 01:07:26,840
Speaker 5: two listed miners out there, you know. So I think

1228
01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:29,640
Speaker 5: you have all of these things coming together where you

1229
01:07:29,720 --> 01:07:33,000
Speaker 5: have this sudden, slight jump in demand and then the

1230
01:07:33,080 --> 01:07:35,360
Speaker 5: panic sets in. And as you said, we watch and

1231
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:38,440
Speaker 5: we watch it for three four years, and then and

1232
01:07:38,520 --> 01:07:41,480
Speaker 5: then when it takes off, it's these things go like

1233
01:07:41,560 --> 01:07:43,880
Speaker 5: a rocket. And and that's what I've noticed with with

1234
01:07:44,000 --> 01:07:48,240
Speaker 5: commodity cycles. They also crash quickly too, So that's.

1235
01:07:48,920 --> 01:07:52,000
Speaker 1: Come to that. Vincent Anthony rat is the see A

1236
01:07:52,120 --> 01:07:55,840
Speaker 1: CEO and co founder of Differential Capital Investments School. Tonight

1237
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:58,560
Speaker 1: is the commodities market entering a super cycle.

1238
01:07:59,000 --> 01:08:01,560
Speaker 10: The Money Show Investment School.

1239
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:04,160
Speaker 1: Six minutes now to eight the time. Vincent Anthony Raja

1240
01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:07,280
Speaker 1: here and co founder of Differential Capital is the commodities

1241
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:11,120
Speaker 1: market entering a super cycle. Vincent, let me just throw

1242
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:13,840
Speaker 1: a curve ball if I may so. One of the

1243
01:08:13,880 --> 01:08:16,600
Speaker 1: reasons we're talking about this is because of the unbelievable

1244
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:20,720
Speaker 1: performance of gold. Now, if it was not for that,

1245
01:08:21,040 --> 01:08:23,320
Speaker 1: would we still be talking about And I say that

1246
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:26,720
Speaker 1: because gold could be having an outsized influence on our

1247
01:08:26,800 --> 01:08:28,240
Speaker 1: perception of what's really happening.

1248
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:36,240
Speaker 5: You know, I think gold is indicating and reacting to

1249
01:08:36,360 --> 01:08:39,800
Speaker 5: some of the drivers that are pushing the other commodities.

1250
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:44,240
Speaker 5: And I'll explain quite simply what's happening around the world,

1251
01:08:45,960 --> 01:08:50,560
Speaker 5: specifically in countries like the US where they're going to

1252
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:56,120
Speaker 5: have to stimulate the economy, and you know, investment markets

1253
01:08:56,840 --> 01:09:00,880
Speaker 5: when that is potentially arec I'm not going to use

1254
01:09:00,880 --> 01:09:05,800
Speaker 5: the word potentially. Investors try and hedge themselves from that.

1255
01:09:06,520 --> 01:09:09,280
Speaker 5: And gold traditionally has always been in place people go

1256
01:09:09,400 --> 01:09:13,439
Speaker 5: and hide. So that's an important factor. The other component is,

1257
01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:19,479
Speaker 5: and it's factual if you look at what central banks

1258
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:22,880
Speaker 5: around the world are doing, they are diversifying the reserve

1259
01:09:23,000 --> 01:09:26,200
Speaker 5: base for various reasons. This is common sense. I mean,

1260
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:30,280
Speaker 5: if a particular currency becomes a risk to you, it

1261
01:09:30,439 --> 01:09:33,439
Speaker 5: just makes sense to diversify. And of course gold has

1262
01:09:33,520 --> 01:09:38,880
Speaker 5: now overtaken the US dollars the most popular reserve for

1263
01:09:39,080 --> 01:09:43,599
Speaker 5: reserve banks. Now, all of that is driving the price

1264
01:09:43,640 --> 01:09:46,320
Speaker 5: of gold up. But what is starting to drive the

1265
01:09:46,360 --> 01:09:50,120
Speaker 5: other commodities up is these large economies like the US

1266
01:09:50,160 --> 01:09:53,000
Speaker 5: and I believe potentially China are going to start to

1267
01:09:53,040 --> 01:09:58,200
Speaker 5: stimulate the economies and excuse me, potentially print more money,

1268
01:09:58,280 --> 01:10:01,400
Speaker 5: inject a lot of liquidity. And that's what's driving the

1269
01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:05,519
Speaker 5: other commodities. So it's almost like gold was the let's

1270
01:10:05,560 --> 01:10:09,080
Speaker 5: call it, the first signal that you know, not only

1271
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:12,000
Speaker 5: were we seeing sort of natural demand drivers like you know,

1272
01:10:12,080 --> 01:10:15,720
Speaker 5: population growth, AI, et cetera, but we're also going to

1273
01:10:15,760 --> 01:10:19,160
Speaker 5: see let's call it, political stimulation. And all of this

1274
01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:22,400
Speaker 5: together is what's setting gold on fire. And to be honest,

1275
01:10:22,439 --> 01:10:25,400
Speaker 5: that's also going to drive the other economies. I mean,

1276
01:10:25,439 --> 01:10:28,639
Speaker 5: the other commodities, probably a bit more aggressively than would

1277
01:10:28,640 --> 01:10:29,479
Speaker 5: normally have happened.

1278
01:10:30,439 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 1: So are there risks to this? Is there something? Are

1279
01:10:33,240 --> 01:10:36,759
Speaker 1: there things that could stop this commodity supercycle or parts

1280
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:38,920
Speaker 1: of it in its tracks? I mean, could there be

1281
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:42,639
Speaker 1: an AI share collapse on the NAS deck and that's

1282
01:10:42,680 --> 01:10:43,200
Speaker 1: it for copper?

1283
01:10:44,120 --> 01:10:44,320
Speaker 9: Yeah?

1284
01:10:44,400 --> 01:10:49,000
Speaker 5: So I think from the supply side, I don't see

1285
01:10:49,080 --> 01:10:52,519
Speaker 5: too many risks of all of a sudden finding huge

1286
01:10:52,560 --> 01:10:56,160
Speaker 5: amounts of you know, copper and platinum and things like that.

1287
01:10:56,840 --> 01:10:59,240
Speaker 5: Oil is another story. I mean, oil is one we

1288
01:10:59,320 --> 01:11:03,000
Speaker 5: need to watch where this substitution, et cetera. So I

1289
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:04,840
Speaker 5: think oil is one to watch where there could be

1290
01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:08,240
Speaker 5: a supply reason that drags down the price of that commodity.

1291
01:11:11,439 --> 01:11:16,120
Speaker 5: Here's my here's my Where it gets perhaps concerning is

1292
01:11:16,240 --> 01:11:21,360
Speaker 5: where you've had economies fueled by loose monetary policy. We

1293
01:11:21,479 --> 01:11:23,800
Speaker 5: know that doesn't last for long. You know, we've seen it.

1294
01:11:24,240 --> 01:11:26,160
Speaker 5: We saw it briefly during COVID, where there was a

1295
01:11:26,200 --> 01:11:28,519
Speaker 5: lot of what were they called stimmy checks, you know,

1296
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:32,080
Speaker 5: pumped into you know, households. They spent a lot of money,

1297
01:11:32,320 --> 01:11:35,639
Speaker 5: drove off the prices of commodities, and but within twelve

1298
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:39,040
Speaker 5: months everything dropped and collapsed again. So so that is

1299
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:41,960
Speaker 5: something to be wary of. It is where there's been

1300
01:11:41,960 --> 01:11:45,640
Speaker 5: an artificial stimulus that can't last forever. There's got to

1301
01:11:45,720 --> 01:11:50,280
Speaker 5: be sustained economic growth thereafter. And generally when when politicians

1302
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:55,679
Speaker 5: drive stimulus into economy, the follow through is kind of weak,

1303
01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:57,920
Speaker 5: you know. So I think that's something to be to

1304
01:11:58,040 --> 01:12:00,880
Speaker 5: be concerned of. The And then if you also look

1305
01:12:00,880 --> 01:12:06,639
Speaker 5: at the other incremental driver of demand, you know, AI,

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01:12:07,880 --> 01:12:10,639
Speaker 5: it seems very impressive, but at the moment, it's kind

1307
01:12:10,680 --> 01:12:13,519
Speaker 5: of at the early Internet phase where it's being used

1308
01:12:13,520 --> 01:12:17,960
Speaker 5: for all sorts of silly things and hopefully, hopefully, let's

1309
01:12:18,000 --> 01:12:20,519
Speaker 5: call it, really productive uses of AI comes through that

1310
01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:23,920
Speaker 5: justify this large amount of money that's being spent on it.

1311
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:28,679
Speaker 5: And if and I think that needs to happen reasonably soon,

1312
01:12:29,200 --> 01:12:32,599
Speaker 5: you know, in order to justify the demand. I mean,

1313
01:12:32,680 --> 01:12:35,680
Speaker 5: the amount of money that's being spent on power and

1314
01:12:35,880 --> 01:12:38,640
Speaker 5: data centers and things like that is substantial, particularly in

1315
01:12:38,720 --> 01:12:45,280
Speaker 5: the US. That's that's one area that I think one

1316
01:12:45,320 --> 01:12:48,320
Speaker 5: should be be concerned. And then the other component that

1317
01:12:48,360 --> 01:12:51,040
Speaker 5: I would say that's been artificially driving up the demand

1318
01:12:51,240 --> 01:12:58,519
Speaker 5: is this isolationist approach by by the US and perhaps

1319
01:12:58,600 --> 01:13:03,000
Speaker 5: other economies. Means that you know, there's maybe an artificial

1320
01:13:03,040 --> 01:13:06,240
Speaker 5: scramble for commodities that can can that might just go

1321
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:08,080
Speaker 5: away if people decide to work better together.

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Speaker 1: Vincent, Thank you, Vincent. Anthony Rajer's CEO and co founder

1323
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Speaker 1: of Differential Capital