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Speaker 1: And now The Money Show with Stephen credits on seven

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Speaker 1: oh two.

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Speaker 2: Let's walk little.

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Speaker 3: The Money Show with Stephen Curtis is brought to you

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Speaker 3: by abscess cib Discover the latest trends shaping digital assets

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Speaker 3: across Africa. Download the ABS Africa Digital Assets Insights twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five. Good evening, Welcome to the program. I'm Stephen Curtis.

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Speaker 3: It's nine minutes now after six at the time. I suppose,

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Speaker 3: really the big story is to a large extent about jobs.

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Speaker 3: And I say that because it is the single biggest

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Speaker 3: problem that we face. If we don't find jobs for

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Speaker 3: so many of the young people who are without them,

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Speaker 3: none of the other problems really matter. And I mean

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Speaker 3: today's figures generally at face value, look very positive. They

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Speaker 3: seem to suggest the trend is going the right way.

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Speaker 3: I do worry a little bit about seasonality. Often the

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Speaker 3: December period lots of holiday jobs, things like that, So

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Speaker 3: it does take a little while to go through all

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Speaker 3: the numbers. You need to make sure that this growth

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Speaker 3: is sustained into the second court, into the first quarter

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Speaker 3: of this year and then into next year. I also

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Speaker 3: think about all of the things that we still left

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Speaker 3: to do yes, we have electricity, but load reduction still

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Speaker 3: a problem, crimes of violence still such a major problem.

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Speaker 3: The registration of businesses still seems to be difficult, and

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Speaker 3: according to Busa, in fact the new changes, the new

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Speaker 3: bill that's supposed to make things easier in terms of

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Speaker 3: business registration might make them harder. So there's so much

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Speaker 3: still to do. But just on balance, I would like

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Speaker 3: to think, and I think there is some evidence for this,

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Speaker 3: that what we rarely are seeing is the very beginnings

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Speaker 3: of the system turning. And I say that because of

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Speaker 3: all of the other things that have been going in

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Speaker 3: the right way, at some point it would follow that

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Speaker 3: jobs numbers would go in that direction too. We'll talk

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Speaker 3: more about it with Sofisioskin China, the managing director of

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Speaker 3: DSG Analytics, in about ten minutes before that, Sia Bona

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Speaker 3: Matlala is the chair of the South African Farmer's Development Association.

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Speaker 3: Big developments in the sugar industry. The sugar industry itself

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Speaker 3: will basically set quotas for the import of sugar. I

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Speaker 3: want to simply say zero, none, nada, nicks and basically

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Speaker 3: leave it at that. We'll find out in a moment

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Speaker 3: also to come the issue around the end of prime,

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Speaker 3: the end of the prime lending rate, and in a

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Speaker 3: way it's always been a sort of figment of our imagination.

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Speaker 3: You could argue all of money is that in this case,

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Speaker 3: the fact that so many contracts are linked to it,

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Speaker 3: what happens to them? Doctor Rulif Burton, Economic advisor the

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Speaker 3: Optimum Investment Group, a man of very deep insights into

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Speaker 3: our economy and the global economy. Looking forward to that

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Speaker 3: conversation at around twenty minutes to seven. And then the

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Speaker 3: latest on the electricity issue the South African Electricity Traders Association.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot to talk about there. They're hunting big changes,

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Speaker 3: but you see those changes happening around us anyway. So

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Speaker 3: all very interesting to watch. Good to hear from you.

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Speaker 3: Double one, double A three oh seven O two two

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Speaker 3: one four four six O five six seven and then

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Speaker 3: your voice notes tonight, how are you feeling about the

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Speaker 3: jobs numbers seven two seven oh two one seven oh two.

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Speaker 3: Twelve minutes after the Bloody Show.

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Speaker 1: With Stephen Krudis Live on ninety two point seven and

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Speaker 1: one six FM, streaming on the Prime Media Plus.

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Speaker 2: Nave and DStv channel eight five.

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Speaker 3: Six Confirmation today that the DTIC Minister Parks Twersk zetted

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Speaker 3: regulations that allow the sugar industry more power to stop

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Speaker 3: sugar imports. The idea of courses that they'll be able

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Speaker 3: to save the industry and save jobs. Town Now says

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Speaker 3: the South African Sugar Association will be able to set

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Speaker 3: the amount of sugar that can be imported. It will

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Speaker 3: also set quotas for the amount of sugar that can

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Speaker 3: be exported every year. Sier Banga Madlala is the chair

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Speaker 3: of the South African Farmers Development Association at SIABONCA. Good

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Speaker 3: evening and thanks for your time. Sugar imports last year

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Speaker 3: we're up one hundred and fifty five percent. I presume

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Speaker 3: you welcome this move by the minister.

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Speaker 4: Oh look greating to you and the listeners of the

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Speaker 4: Siltra FM. Look, the regulation that's been cransated do not

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Speaker 4: necessarily speak to the deep sea imports that actually regulates

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Speaker 4: the sugar industry. I think they will understanding around what

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Speaker 4: these regulations do. It's actually helping the industry to actually

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Speaker 4: manage its own export, not to manage the import. Remember

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Speaker 4: the important opering outside the sugar industry. They they just

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Speaker 4: get charged by stars for the import. So there is

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Speaker 4: regulations actually assist us with our carry over call it

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Speaker 4: carry over talaging, meaning that when we produce sugar, if

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Speaker 4: that which we can't sell in the sision, we can

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Speaker 4: actually in store it, but but be able to pay

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Speaker 4: our farmers and carry it over the next next season.

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Speaker 4: But that story as the industry. But the regulations allow

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Speaker 4: us to pay our farmers in that season. So it

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Speaker 4: helps us, you know, manage our case flows. It pums

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Speaker 4: up our our army prize in that context so that

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Speaker 4: farmers don't only get paid in the following fludment that

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Speaker 4: sugar is sold.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So just to be clear, it doesn't stop the

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Speaker 3: imports at.

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Speaker 4: All, it doesn't unfortunately in natural fact, the eas an

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Speaker 4: application is that the industry is put through so I

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Speaker 4: tech to actually ask for a review of the teriffs

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Speaker 4: to protect our sugar industry. We are still appealing on

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Speaker 4: government to intervene in swift in a swift implementation of

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Speaker 4: the tariff review so that then we can be protected

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Speaker 4: from the deep th imports. The sugar imports are talking

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Speaker 4: about are still ramaging us. We're sitting too, one hundred

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Speaker 4: fifty thousand tons of imported sugar as we speak.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I mean I'm presuming it would be quite difficult

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Speaker 3: to control that. The importers themselves would fight you on

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Speaker 3: it every tooth and nail.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's it's important to understand the context why

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Speaker 4: we need protection from that imported sugar. Generally, the import

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Speaker 4: market where it's it's really a dumbing market. Also, the

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Speaker 4: industries in the other countries are subsidized by their governments

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Speaker 4: living export sugar, so the prices that you fetch in

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Speaker 4: the market side are cheap prices which are not reflective

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Speaker 4: of the real course of production. We we don't know of

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Speaker 4: those countries, but we don't even compare to those countries

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Speaker 4: in terms of course of production. Others don't even have

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Speaker 4: minimum which we are subjected to realimum way to this country,

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Speaker 4: and the funding conditions are not the same. So generally

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Speaker 4: we need to protect our industries. But because by buying

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Speaker 4: important sugar means it means we are actually exporting jobs,

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Speaker 4: and we know that our countries face considers high unemployment

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Speaker 4: and it's not a time that we can actually be

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Speaker 4: exporting jobs and in natural effects, we'll be killing our

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Speaker 4: local farmers. So that's there's no benefit in that in

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Speaker 4: the in the socio economic impact that we can actually

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Speaker 4: you know, the experience that other.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, why why is it that these people who are

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Speaker 3: importing sugar, Why is that sugar cheaper to make somewhere

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Speaker 3: else and import than the sugar were are producing here?

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Speaker 3: Where Where's the difference in price? What's causing the price difference?

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Speaker 4: I think I did explain that most of these countries

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Speaker 4: we are talking about that actually has excess sugar, they

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Speaker 4: are satidized even to export the sugar. Their governents actually

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Speaker 4: pay them to actually to that, so they protecting their

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Speaker 4: own industries but killing our own industries. I've indicated that

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Speaker 4: our cost of production really cannot be compared to your prazis,

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Speaker 4: who have vast types of land and are much highly mechanized.

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Speaker 4: We are family and undulating terrains, you know, which are

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Speaker 4: not easy to even mechanize. But beyond that, I mean,

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Speaker 4: like I said, we've got minimum wage practices that our

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Speaker 4: country enforces to our farmers, which other countries don't even have.

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Speaker 4: So the cost of production and the conditions with famine

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Speaker 4: are not the same entirely. So you generally would want

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Speaker 4: to protect your own industries because if you don't otherwise

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Speaker 4: would be importing everything because almost everything is cheaper to

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Speaker 4: produce elsewhere than in our own country.

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Speaker 3: Sure, I mean, I mean there's so much in all

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Speaker 3: of this to look at that that if the industry

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Speaker 3: gets to basically determine how much, how big the sugar

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Speaker 3: market is going to be, how much sugar is required,

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Speaker 3: isn't that quite hard to do? I mean all sorts

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Speaker 3: of things can change that. Actually, you know, basically you're

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Speaker 3: trying to set in a way requirements ahead of time.

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Speaker 3: It's not quite a free market.

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Speaker 4: It is the free market. I mean, this is an

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Speaker 4: internal exercise that we do as an industry to say that, look,

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Speaker 4: how much is our industry, how much is our requirement

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Speaker 4: for our local market. We determine that, then we know

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Speaker 4: that there's how much we sell in the sugar for

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Speaker 4: the local market. But then whatever is excess that you

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Speaker 4: can't sell in the year, we have a liverage to

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Speaker 4: protect or to not to carry that over for the depths,

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Speaker 4: but finance and so that we can pay our farmers.

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Speaker 4: Imagine that a farmer waiting to get paid for sugar

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Speaker 4: you've produced, but because it doesn't even mean sold, so

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Speaker 4: we wait at the following suasions. What about your operational

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Speaker 4: cost and all of that took this legislation is our

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Speaker 4: fifteen lass. In a fifteen our farmers get paid tiniously

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Speaker 4: then the two old be sold in the following suits.

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Speaker 4: That's what that's all that that is is to manage

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Speaker 4: our supply.

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Speaker 3: That's all that it is for Si Bona, thank you

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Speaker 3: so much for the clarity. Sia Bona Madlala is the

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Speaker 3: chair of the South African Farmers Development Association. Eighteen after six.

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Speaker 2: The Money Show with Stephen on seven O two seven

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Speaker 2: O two.

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Speaker 3: So much sort of good news at the top level

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Speaker 3: of the economy over the last few months. Now finally

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Speaker 3: it looks on the face of it at least as

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Speaker 3: if our jobs numbers are going the right way. SATs

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Speaker 3: say saying I'm unemployment drop from thirty one point nine

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Speaker 3: percent to thirty one point four percent. This is in

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Speaker 3: the last three months of last year. Still means around

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Speaker 3: ten million people are without jobs. Maybe it's assigned things

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Speaker 3: are moving so Fiesis skin Jana is the economist and

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Speaker 3: managing director at ESG Analytics OFFESA. Good evening, I mean

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Speaker 3: many other indications that our economy is at last moving

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Speaker 3: to these numbers show there is some aggress in actually

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Speaker 3: creating jobs.

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Speaker 5: Viewing Stephen and of course to the listeners at home, Yeah,

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Speaker 5: I think beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

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Speaker 5: In the context of the sprint, I think what's beautiful

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Speaker 5: is certainly I think the progress that's come through from

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Speaker 5: an agree sector point of view. And that's also just

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Speaker 5: on the back of I think a number of ahead

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Speaker 5: winds that they had, right, I mean, they've gone through

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Speaker 5: on a three percent year on ear three percent quarter,

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Speaker 5: but also you know, we had issues on the goer,

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Speaker 5: we had issues with the Liberation Day in thirty percent tariffs.

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Speaker 5: So to see resilience in that sector I think is

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Speaker 5: incredibly important and to see those numbers come back right

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Speaker 5: back up in terms of an employment outcomes point of view,

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Speaker 5: and I think that's the beauty. I think the beast

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Speaker 5: is a lot more complex in this particular context. Even

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Speaker 5: sometimes I think percentages I think can get us lost

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Speaker 5: in looking at the particular detail that sits underneath. And

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Speaker 5: one you've got eighty percent, and say, if I just

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Speaker 5: compare from twenty fifteen, the number of long term unemployed

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Speaker 5: people was about sixty six percent. Number of long term

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Speaker 5: unemployed people today is eighty percent, and so that's the

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Speaker 5: number of people who have been unemployed for longer than

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Speaker 5: twelve months. And so that's telling you that unemployment is

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Speaker 5: becoming structural. When unemployment becomes structural, you start to see

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Speaker 5: them the two hundred and thirty three percent increase in

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Speaker 5: discourage workers and people falling off in in terms of

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Speaker 5: discourage works seat and so then one that it reduces

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Speaker 5: the base. Also, if you do fractions, then you reduce that.

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Speaker 5: To nominate to the numbers starts to look a little

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Speaker 5: the better, a little bit more interesting. And so certainly

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Speaker 5: for me, I think there's the bigger beast here, and

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Speaker 5: we can get into other elements on the numbers that

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Speaker 5: actually reinforce the story that this is not really a

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Speaker 5: good story to tell beyond some of the games that

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Speaker 5: we've seen in the every sector.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you talk about the beasts, what's it going

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Speaker 3: to take to sort of tame the beast, you know,

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Speaker 3: to create the jobs? And yes, stuff happening at the

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Speaker 3: top level, Yes stuff happening in agriculture, but I worry

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Speaker 3: deeply about manufacturing, and we know how important that is

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Speaker 3: to jobs and then services. It's quite complicated often relies

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Speaker 3: sort of on consumer demand. We don't really know where

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Speaker 3: that's going to go unless something fundamentally changes hundred percent them.

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Speaker 5: And of in economics, what you toldmost events called what

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Speaker 5: we call the structural transformation of the economy, and so

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Speaker 5: it talks about the relative contribution of the primary sector,

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Speaker 5: secondary section, the tertiary sector. And South Africa, for its

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Speaker 5: level of development, shouldn't have twenty four percent coming from services.

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Speaker 5: We'll skipped a developmental step. And it's now showing nineteen

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Speaker 5: ninety six manufacturing contributed about twenty six percent, twenty seven

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Speaker 5: percent of GDP now contributes some of between ten and

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Speaker 5: eleven percent, depending on the quurt you're looking at and

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Speaker 5: the data points you're looking at. And so you've got

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Speaker 5: an issue there where in essence that we've started as adults,

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Speaker 5: in essence because we're looking like adults, but we're actually

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Speaker 5: stunted in terms of our growth are an economy. And

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Speaker 5: so when you look at some of the other issues,

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Speaker 5: and so I'll come back is that from a labor

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Speaker 5: point of view, what's TATA says started doing is they

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Speaker 5: started looking at both because one of the measures they

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Speaker 5: used to use was kind of underemployment, and so how

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Speaker 5: many people are employed but are in suboptimal roles. Let's

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Speaker 5: call it that. Now they've actually come in with a

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Speaker 5: composite measure of labor under utilization, which simply speaks to

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Speaker 5: a combination of those who are unemployed, those who are discouraged,

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Speaker 5: those who could potentially be in job seek but are

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Speaker 5: are economically different franchise to be able to do that,

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Speaker 5: that number I think is scary because now that goes

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Speaker 5: closer to one in two people. That's in essence, forty

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Speaker 5: four point six percent for people, in essence who are

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Speaker 5: in the composite measure of labor under utilization. And that

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Speaker 5: really talks to the structural issue in the economy which

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Speaker 5: I was talking about, the kind of the structural transformation

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Speaker 5: of the economy. And so we really need to push

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Speaker 5: all our I guess you know, our leaders to start

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Speaker 5: having more intentional conversation about moving investment into the primary

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Speaker 5: sector into the secondary sectors. We saw, I think which

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Speaker 5: was quite embarrassing, Stephen, the drop in the trade numbers

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Speaker 5: in terms of unemployment or in terms of employment outcomes,

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Speaker 5: and it was because of the cleanup ahead of G

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Speaker 5: twenty and so all of the informal traders were moved

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Speaker 5: out of their areas of economic participation, so that our

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Speaker 5: country looks a little bit cleaner and it's coming out

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Speaker 5: in numbers. Yeah, and so informal trade already then becomes

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Speaker 5: a dog in the way in which we will recognize

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Speaker 5: its contribution to economic outcomes of the country. And I

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Speaker 5: think certainly quite embarrassed and coming out of the numbers

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Speaker 5: that we're seen here.

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Speaker 3: Sure, such an interesting point I saw with all of

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Speaker 3: us happening. I mean, I remember so many times the

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Speaker 3: Reserve Bank making the point during load shedding that load

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Speaker 3: shedding was responsible for cutting out GDP by about two percent.

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Speaker 3: Load shedding has now been over, let's just say for

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Speaker 3: a full calendar year, where's my two percent?

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Speaker 5: Well from two thousand and eight, sorry not to go

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Speaker 5: twenty eighteen stevens when the late Minister Boeni began the

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Speaker 5: austerity project coming out of Naturary Treasure, and if you

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Speaker 5: must remember National Treasury, they did have actually a policy

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Speaker 5: definition more policy stance that they center market that in

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Speaker 5: essence that there were countercyclical as a national accounts and

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Speaker 5: funding agency of the country. And counter cyclicalogy means that

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Speaker 5: you kind of fund into the downside. When the economy

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Speaker 5: is struggling, you kind of fund it, fund.

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Speaker 4: Into the growth.

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Speaker 5: But what happened in twenty twenty eighteen is that we

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Speaker 5: became pro cyclical, and so that's when austerity became and

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Speaker 5: so economy was contracting and we started also cutting budgets,

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Speaker 5: and it's translating into the numbers that we're seeing right

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Speaker 5: there and so and so, the truth of the matter

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Speaker 5: is that we haven't invested into growth, we haven't invested

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Speaker 5: ourselves out of the contractionary environment, and in fact, we

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Speaker 5: haven't recognized the tools that are available for us to

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Speaker 5: invest ourselves into out of the contraction environment. In fact,

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Speaker 5: we've I think we misutilize some of the tools, including

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Speaker 5: monetary policy, where we use monetropolicy as a cooling mechanism,

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Speaker 5: but in an already cool economy, so monetary policy becomes ineffective.

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Speaker 5: But all it does is strangle the economy. And so

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Speaker 5: we're finding ourselves in a space where we went against

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Speaker 5: our initial economic thinking from two thousand and eight, we

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Speaker 5: stopped doing economic scenario planning. And then doctor Lakodla from

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Speaker 5: the kind of previous stitioner talks about the ending of

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Speaker 5: economic scenario planning for the economy is a big issue

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Speaker 5: because then we stopped dreaming forward about what could become

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Speaker 5: possible for our economy and all we've become, I think

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Speaker 5: has become a recipient of global shifts and we will

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Speaker 5: figure out how to respond to whatever shows, but we don't.

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Speaker 5: We've lost a national economic strategy through meaningfully grow South

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Speaker 5: Africa as a competitive agent in the global economy.

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Speaker 3: So phasic ken, gentlemen, thanks so much for those thoughts.

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Speaker 3: Ready to appreciate it. Economists and managing director at ESG

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Speaker 3: Analytics The Money Show, Anthony Motosani, is that absolute cib Anthony,

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Speaker 3: good evening MTN just after the closed news that they're

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Speaker 3: buying IHS Towers. That seems to be quite a big move.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, thanks Steven, It was good to be here.

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Speaker 7: So yeah, Initially what happened is we saw news headlines

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Speaker 7: around I Chose Towers selling their latter business to m

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Speaker 7: Latin Towers business to macquari Asseid Management, So that paved

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Speaker 7: the way. Remember that was a little bit of a

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Speaker 7: hurdle for mt and they didn't want they just wanted

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Speaker 7: African exposure. So that now with this transaction happening should

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Speaker 7: it go through as a condition within the agreement, so

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Speaker 7: mt and will acquire the Twers business. They're already hold

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Speaker 7: up I think about a twenty five percent stake, so

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Speaker 7: they're taking the rest one point one billion dollars funded

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Speaker 7: by MTN catch with which they have, and then another

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Speaker 7: one point one by Towers business as well.

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Speaker 6: So yeah, it could.

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Speaker 7: Did take the market by a bit of surprise, and

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Speaker 7: you saw the stock New Joke off its lows and

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Speaker 7: close sort of flats on the day.

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Speaker 3: I mean you're also looking had a huge market that's

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Speaker 3: only going to want more data. Mean, this is a

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Speaker 3: very strategic move exactly.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, look at it.

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Speaker 7: I think it is going to be earning secretive, you know,

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Speaker 7: empty and from the sense they release at least that

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Speaker 7: pretty late, you know it said it's going to benefit

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Speaker 7: net income. I thought maybe, if anything, investors might be

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Speaker 7: a bit apprehensive because it means a less be less

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Speaker 7: cash in their pocket. But I think they're looking through

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Speaker 7: that and they see it as a very positive deal

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Speaker 7: for the company.

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Speaker 3: Tiger Brands sort of dropped quite dramatically. What happened, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: so we had a broker downgrade in the market. One

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Speaker 3: of the International Brokers had the stock at overweight and

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Speaker 3: cuts it to neutral. From what I could gather, it

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Speaker 3: was just rather valuation in terms of saying that the

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Speaker 3: market values are the stock are all too high. Five

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Speaker 3: percent really did feel a bit aggressive.

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Speaker 7: I mean, from you know, valuation, no problems as far

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Speaker 7: as Target Brand's concerned. I think they turnaround story has

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Speaker 7: been really positive. So yeah, I just think, you know,

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Speaker 7: maybe just got to you've got to sell around in

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Speaker 7: a market where liquidities has been on the lighter side,

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Speaker 7: and that's just sort of put a little bit of

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Speaker 7: unnecessary pressure on the stock.

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Speaker 3: Market dynamics generally. I mean, look, Asian market has been closed,

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Speaker 3: the US was closed yesterday, so a bit of thin

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Speaker 3: trade particularly yesterday, and we'll see what happens when you know,

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Speaker 3: the US markets are open now. But certainly the kind

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Speaker 3: of I mean, I presume not the end of the

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Speaker 3: dollar dey basement trade, but a stronger dollar having all

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Speaker 3: sorts of consequences.

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Speaker 7: Yes see, and we've seen that coming through in the

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Speaker 7: precious metals and even your copper. Right, we've seen that

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Speaker 7: sort of way on on on the on the commodity space,

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Speaker 7: and then we had we've had softer gold stocks and

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Speaker 7: softer PGM stocks to start this year. So yeah, I

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Speaker 7: think it's still something that's very topical. You get into

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Speaker 7: a couple of commentators coming out and saying, you know,

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Speaker 7: it's it's not gonna it's it's a theme, but it's

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Speaker 7: you know, it's not just going to be our one

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Speaker 7: way trade. You know, the debasement's not just and it's

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Speaker 7: certainly not a foregone conclusion. So I think the market

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Speaker 7: really is at a juncture at this point where it's

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Speaker 7: trying to sort of look for the next catalyst. What's

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Speaker 7: the next major news headline that's going to drive price activity.

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Speaker 3: I'm being modest signing thanks so much. Anthony is a

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Speaker 3: senior equity sales trader at ABSs CIBB.

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Speaker 1: The Money Show with Stephen Krugers Live on ninety two

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Speaker 1: point seven and one six FM.

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Speaker 6: Training on the Prime Media Plus.

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Speaker 2: NAP and DStv channel eight five six.

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Speaker 3: Nineteen minutes to seven the time. If you have a

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Speaker 3: home loan, and millions of people do, you will probably

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Speaker 3: find that your lending rate, the rate at which you've

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Speaker 3: borrowed money from the bank over twenty or twenty five years,

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Speaker 3: is linked to the prime rate which is three hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty basis points above the REPO rate. Now, the

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Speaker 3: Reserve Bank is said in a consultative paper it believes

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Speaker 3: prime as we currently understand it should be abolished and

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Speaker 3: in fact, what we now call the REPO rate, the

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Speaker 3: rate at which the Reserve Bank lends money to other banks,

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Speaker 3: should be changed to what would be called the SAB

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Speaker 3: the South African Reserve Bank Policy rate. Doctor Rulivberta is

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Speaker 3: an economic advisor at the Optimum Investment Group at Doctor

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Speaker 3: Burtter Good evening, Good to talk to you again. If

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Speaker 3: prime is a sort of imaginary rate anyway, does all

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Speaker 3: of this changing of words really change anything?

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Speaker 8: No, it doesn't change anything. I'm so concerned about the

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Speaker 8: fact that the Minority Policy Committee members actually obviously they

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Speaker 8: don't have much to do except hang around in DeVos,

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Speaker 8: and now they're filling with names which will have absolutely

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Speaker 8: zero impact on the way banks function by determining the

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Speaker 8: margin above or below prime that they will lend to

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Speaker 8: somebody depending on their credit worthiness, and as it base

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Speaker 8: it sits up by renaming prime RIPO plus, nothing changes effectively.

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Speaker 8: What they should rather do is to appreciate the fact

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Speaker 8: that the data just released today on unemployment means that

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Speaker 8: unemployed people in this country, including discouraged work seekers, now

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Speaker 8: telling more than former sector jobs in South Africa. This

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Speaker 8: has frightening because our real prime right prime minus CPI

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Speaker 8: is today six point eight percent. It was on average

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Speaker 8: three point four percent during the five year tenure of

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Speaker 8: the previous governor of the Reserve Bank, Joe Marcus. To

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Speaker 8: my mind, the best governor we ever had, became a

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Speaker 8: colleague of.

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Speaker 4: Mine at Gibbs.

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Speaker 8: One hundred percent increase from one governor to the next

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Speaker 8: in the cost of capital and the cost of credit.

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Speaker 8: This is ludicrous.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, the obvious point I suppose they would

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Speaker 3: make is aventlation has come down over the period. But

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Speaker 3: I don't want to get too mind in this. What

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Speaker 3: I do want to understand is that when a name

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Speaker 3: change doesn't change anything, I suppose what the Reserve Bank

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00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: might claim is that it will bring some kind of

438
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 3: simplicity because at the moment everybody thinks of prime, they

439
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 3: use prime as a did you get a loan of

440
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 3: above prime or minus prime? When prime is really just

441
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 3: a rate above the repo rate. And if we just

442
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 3: call it to and let's just stick with the phrase

443
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 3: reper rate for the moment. If we just stick with

444
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 3: variations above the reper rate, doesn't that make things simpler?

445
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 8: No, it's just the name change. I mean, I've done

446
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 8: I've done a couple of a little bit of research.

447
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 8: Most countries, high income countries and emerging markets of note

448
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 8: have a spread of between two hundred and four hundred

449
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 8: basis points between the official central bank rate and the

450
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 8: benchmark mortgage leaning rate. And South Africa finds itself company

451
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 8: being a changed but houses three point five percentage points

452
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 8: to the one hundred and fifty basis points. It's just

453
00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 8: a name change, quite frinkly, the bank will still and

454
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 8: that's that the I've spoken spoken today to a couple

455
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 8: of bankers and they told me that the maximum that

456
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 8: you go down from prime is about two percentage point

457
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 8: prime minus two. Or if you are really, you know,

458
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 8: od shot with a lot of assets and credit worthiness,

459
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 8: then you know, then you pay prime minus two. Otherwise,

460
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 8: if if there's a little bit of a dicey environment,

461
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 8: you will pay prime plus two percent. Changing the name

462
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 8: prime to reper plus doesn't change this. But I just

463
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 8: want to quickly Stephen tell you that the reason why

464
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 8: inflation spiked soon after COVID was because of a seven

465
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 8: hundred percent increase in global flight shipping rates and eighty

466
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 8: percent of all tradeable goods in the world gets shipped

467
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 8: by the ocean and a five hundred percent increase in

468
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 8: the oil price inter area. Because of this mass murder,

469
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 8: a muster put In's invasion of a demomocratic, free enterprise

470
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 8: country Ukraine. That that was the cause of inflation. There

471
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 8: was no sign of the non inflation. It was not

472
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 8: necessary to take the prime rate. The report rate. Obviously

473
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 8: the prime through the repot to its highest level in

474
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 8: fifteen years. And I want to I just want to

475
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 8: advise the listeners if your own mind. The Inclusive Society

476
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 8: Institute publishes, you know, really nifty research reports. You can

477
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,199
Speaker 8: go to their website Intrusive Society Institute and if you

478
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 8: click on reports, you will find a report titled the

479
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 8: damage inflicted on the South African Economy as a result

480
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 8: of the Reserve Bank's unduly restrictive monetary policy stams. It

481
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 8: was never necessary. We had a prime rate of seven

482
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 8: percent if just after COVID, our prime rate now is

483
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 8: ten point two five percent. The bond deal that has

484
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 8: come down by three hundred and twenty five basis points

485
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 8: since I last year. During this period, the primarytor has

486
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 8: only been numbered one hundred basis points. Our primary things

487
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 8: of Africa today, if I'd been government reserve bank and

488
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 8: in the old days, I had a pretty good chance.

489
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 8: Should look at my CV. I studied under one of

490
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 8: the previous governors, by the way, and we were colleagues

491
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,919
Speaker 8: at Tuchis where taught economics. The primary things of Africa

492
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 8: today should be eight percent based on the tenure bond yield.

493
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 3: So okay, I mean, I realize you're far more qualified

494
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 3: than I to argue this. But the argument I'm sure

495
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 3: would then go, we're going to have to argue about

496
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 3: inflation now. Is that what we saw in places like

497
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,479
Speaker 3: the United States, what we saw in the UK, and

498
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 3: what we saw in other parts of Europe was that

499
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 3: inflation became very difficult to tame. Our bank moved very quickly,

500
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 3: raced interest rates very quickly. I mean in some parts

501
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 3: of Europe food prices were going up by forty percent.

502
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 3: I don't know if South Africa would survive such a thing.

503
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 3: And the argument would go that the reserve bank played

504
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 3: a role by increasing interest rates and making sure that

505
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 3: that didn't happen here. And we've seen the political consequences

506
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 3: of high inflation in the United States, for example.

507
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 8: Stephen, as I said earlier, the spike in inflation globally

508
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 8: was caused by an absurd, abnormal, once in a century

509
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 8: situation where you had a seven hundred percent increase in

510
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 8: global flate shopping charges and the five hundred percent English

511
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 8: or apries inflation in South Africa would have come down

512
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 8: at the same date with or without those interst rate spike.

513
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 8: It was a supply side shock that was the only

514
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 8: cause there is to this day know demne inflation. I

515
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 8: just want to give you one other horrible statistic. Our

516
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 8: capacity utilization in South Africa's manufacturing sector, where we've sad

517
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 8: one hundred thousand jobs last year, is still below where

518
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 8: it was before COVID. It is as if the Reserve

519
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 8: Bank ignores these data sets. There is no consensus that

520
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 8: highly interstates cannot, you know, for shipping companies to lower

521
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 8: their costs. COVID was an abnormal event and they overacted

522
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 8: as far as I'm concerned. They already acted in the

523
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 8: United States as well, And there's so much scholarly research

524
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 8: that has been done in the last three years that

525
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 8: has indicated the errors, the great errors.

526
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 3: That they made as a result of this, Doctor Ruliberter,

527
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 3: thank you Pretoria and economical advisor with the Optimum Investment Group. Well,

528
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 3: you had a very strong view there on the issue

529
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 3: of inflation, also on the words that are used to

530
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 3: describe prime and repo. There will of course be other views,

531
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: some of them will be held equally strongly. Ten minutes

532
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 3: nine to seven.

533
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 9: The Money Show Steel Protest is brought to you by

534
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:58,000
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535
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Speaker 3: So many conversations around electricity policy. A strong statement by

538
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 3: the President so rom Apausa during the State of the

539
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 3: Nation last week that the company that does actually manage

540
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 3: the transmission of electricity will be fully independent ESCAM will

541
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 3: be properly broken up into three different parts. But still

542
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 3: so much work to do and at the same time

543
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 3: you kind of don't want to have anything that threatens

544
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 3: all the gains. Evan Rice is that the South African

545
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 3: Electricity Traders Association also the SEEO of Etana Energy they've

546
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 3: got a big report out today about what needs to happen,

547
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 3: the Association and Ruth and putting that together. Evan, good evening.

548
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 3: I mean, this is about policy, it's stability and that policy.

549
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 3: And you start by saying you want a formal cabinet roadmap.

550
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 3: Why is that so important? Is that just for clarity

551
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 3: so that people can plan and therefore invest, Yes.

552
00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 10: Thanks to you, then yeah, I think it is exactly that.

553
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 10: You know, we've had some really positive screenshoots in the

554
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 10: electricity industry over the last year or two, you knows,

555
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 10: comes performance on its generation fleets of turn turned around markedly,

556
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 10: and we've also found a way to unlock significant new

557
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 10: investment in generation capacity through through the private sector. But

558
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 10: in reality, there's still there's a whole bunch of other

559
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 10: pieces that actually need to come together in parallel if

560
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 10: we're going to end up with a least cost reliable

561
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 10: electricity system that can deliver the economic growth we need

562
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 10: in the country, and for that we really need, you know,

563
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 10: government endorsement to cover all those aspects, not just in generation,

564
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 10: but also in transmission, distribution as well as the upcoming

565
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 10: wholesale market that is slated to be introduced later this year.

566
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 3: I mean, at the moment, the big burning issue about electricity,

567
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 3: as you say, is not really do we have it,

568
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 3: but the issue is pricing. How do we come up

569
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 3: with a proper pricing model? Is there a way to

570
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 3: give clarity on that? And in a way even I mean,

571
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 3: it's kind of impossible.

572
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 10: So Stephen, I think the electricity pricing policy is one

573
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 10: of the ten areas you know that we are calling

574
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 10: for clarity from government to be finalized this year. You know,

575
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 10: electricity pricing has obviously increased significantly over the last fifteen years,

576
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 10: where above inflation, but new generation technologies are actually coming

577
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 10: in cost competitively with the grid. So I think we've

578
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 10: got a way to stabilize the cost trajectory from a

579
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 10: generation point of view. But there's still all the need

580
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 10: for significant investment in the grid at both transmission and

581
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 10: distribution levels to be able to improve reliability and to

582
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 10: be able to connect a new generation that needs to

583
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 10: be delivered as the aging core fleet is decommissioned. There's

584
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 10: also the sticky issue here across subsidies, and that's exactly

585
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 10: what the electricity pricing pol see, that's the instrument where

586
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 10: all of this is laid out by governments. I don't

587
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 10: think there's anybody here that's saying that people who buying

588
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 10: electricity directly from the private sector, from ibps or traders

589
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 10: should bypass certain costs. Those have got to be socialized

590
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 10: across the whole system. But we do need that policy

591
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 10: to be updated to reflect the changing reality and the

592
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 10: new overall electricity supply industry policy direction that government has set.

593
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 3: I mean, within all of this, you really need a

594
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 3: strong independent regulation. We've seen the problems that nursers had,

595
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 3: the mistakes that they've made. Frankly, it's one of the

596
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 3: reasons electricity is going up so much this year. I

597
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: kind of wonder with Nursey if we need to almost

598
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 3: start again. And I don't mean to be rude, but

599
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 3: when you've had so many problems and clearly capacity issues.

600
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 3: In other words, they don't have enough people, they don't

601
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 3: have enough money. We need real changes.

602
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 10: Yeah, Stephen Looker, I think they've got a very tough job.

603
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 10: And I don't think this is unique to electricity in

604
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 10: South Africa. I mean, I think we're undergoing such significant

605
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 10: reform in various sectors of the economy that are regulated,

606
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 10: and we desperately need to beef up our regulatory capacity.

607
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 6: You know.

608
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 10: Fortunately, we're walking a part year that's been walked by

609
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 10: many other parts.

610
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,720
Speaker 11: Of the globe over the last couple of decades.

611
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 10: And in those instances regulators haven't always got things right either.

612
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 10: But there's a lot of lessons that can be drawn

613
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 10: from those experiences, and I'm sure there's a lot of

614
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 10: skills that we can leverage. So you know, in my view,

615
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 10: it's one area under the Just Energy Transition Partnership that

616
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 10: we can really request and rely on international partners to

617
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 10: assist us with knowledge and some experience in that area

618
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 10: that we need to invest heavily in the capacity and

619
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 10: beef it up.

620
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 12: For sure.

621
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 3: The presidents seemed to me at least to be quite

622
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,280
Speaker 3: clear last week the transmission company will be fully independent.

623
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 3: I mean, that's critical for the future of your industry.

624
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,399
Speaker 3: Do you believe now that that is what is going

625
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 3: to happen. I'm not asking you to question the president

626
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 3: just you know, politics is messy.

627
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,439
Speaker 12: Yeah, Stephen, Look, I think it is a very clear

628
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 12: statement for the President, and I think you know SCOM

629
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 12: has also been clear to say that they will support

630
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 12: that direction that came out of the.

631
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 10: President's speech at Sona. So by all accounts, I think

632
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 10: that is the direction that we're taking, But there are

633
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 10: a number of other things that also require, you know,

634
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,240
Speaker 10: significant attention over this period.

635
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 12: The distribution industry suffers.

636
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 10: From a chronic lack of investment municipal finances. Really need

637
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 10: we need a systemic solution there to solve this. An

638
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,320
Speaker 10: electricity sector. And then there's a bunch of other market rules,

639
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 10: the trading rules, as we mentioned, electricity pricing policy. So

640
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 10: there's ultimately ten actions in this report that we've laid

641
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 10: out that we believe need to get implemented in a

642
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 10: coordinated manner and in parallel if we're going to really

643
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 10: reap the fruits of what's looking to be a really

644
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 10: really beneficial policy direction from the initial steps that have

645
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 10: been taken.

646
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 3: Evan Rice, thank you for the South African Eleichristy Traders Association.

647
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 3: Also CEO of Etana Energy.

648
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 1: Two Stephen has gone x at at stephen.

649
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 3: More reporting today. I think it came from Bloomberg about

650
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 3: arsenal mittal, as you know, being slowly shut down, suggesting

651
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 3: that steel processes are quite keen to join the Industrial

652
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 3: Development Corporation in buying into Arsenal Mittal in some way,

653
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 3: and I was reminded of how the end of the

654
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 3: World Economic Forum meeting in Devas. This was the end

655
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 3: of January. By the way, the CEO at the id C,

656
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 3: Majoschi Leket, had told us that a deal would be

657
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 3: announced soon. I think maybe imminently was the word, but

658
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 3: certainly soon, and we're still kind of waiting. I realized

659
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 3: it's complicated and difficult. The question, of course, is once

660
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 3: you own it as the id C, along with the processes, etc.

661
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 3: What do you do then if the current owners can't

662
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 3: make money from it, how can you? And then this

663
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 3: takes us back to surprise, surprise, electricity prices and so

664
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,439
Speaker 3: many other factors. Every decision you make around urs little

665
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 3: Mettal is going to have all sorts of costs, and

666
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 3: of course, perhaps the cost of doing nothing might be

667
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 3: greater than all of those costs. I am not sure

668
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 3: that we will get any kind of big announcement on

669
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 3: this for quite some time, and I think that must

670
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 3: be incredibly frustrating and difficult, heartbreaking really for so many

671
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: of the people that involved, the workers who are sort

672
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 3: of dependent on it, other people in the industrial sector

673
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 3: as well. The point though, is that when you've got

674
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 3: to make a decision as complicated as this, I'm not

675
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,479
Speaker 3: sure what a good idea for anyone to rush things.

676
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 3: On the other hand, wait too long and there's really

677
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 3: nothing left to save. I'm afraid. Don't forget. Rutender and

678
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 3: Dingwe he'll be with you in the next half hour.

679
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 3: We'll talk also, of course to Warren Ingram, how to

680
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 3: cope when markets are going nuts. In personal finance, you

681
00:37:59,120 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 3: with The Money Show.

682
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:05,800
Speaker 1: And now The Money Show with Stephen's credit on seven

683
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: oh two.

684
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:07,720
Speaker 11: Let's walk little.

685
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 3: The Money Show with Stephen Curtis is brought to you

686
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:14,360
Speaker 3: by Abscess CIV. Discover the latest trends shaping digital assets

687
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 3: across Africa. Download the Absent Africa Digital Assets Insights twenty

688
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 3: twenty five. Eight minutes after seven plenty to camp, we'll

689
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 3: talk about Persia and Stalentis SA in just a moment.

690
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 3: Rutendo and Dingue the founding director at Tribe Africa Advisory.

691
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 3: He'll update you on what's happening on our continent. I'll

692
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 3: give you a sneak peek. There's a lot going on

693
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 3: around solar energy and Nigeria. It's also got a story

694
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,439
Speaker 3: about a bowling alley. And then I mean, I'm sure

695
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 3: you look at the markets. I mean I sometimes look

696
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 3: at the indices coming out of the US and sometimes ours,

697
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 3: and I can't believe what I'm actually seeing, so I

698
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 3: have to put it down for a moment. How do

699
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 3: you ride all of this out? Warren Ingram's the co

700
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 3: founder at Galileo Capital. He'll explain it all and help

701
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 3: us to ride it all up. Actually, such a calm

702
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 3: rider as Warren Ingram. He'll be with us from seven thirty.

703
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 3: I saw today confirmation that the SRD Grant, the Social

704
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 3: Relief of Distress Grant and you can call it the

705
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,799
Speaker 3: COVID Grant if you like, has been extended to the

706
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 3: end of March twenty twenty seven. And I kind of feel,

707
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 3: surely the time has come to just make this thing permanent.

708
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 3: It's not a huge amount of money, and that's one

709
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 3: of the big problems. It's only three hundred and seventy rand.

710
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 3: But I can tell you for some people it matters

711
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 3: so much they go to great efforts to get it.

712
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,280
Speaker 3: And that tells you that it's playing an important role.

713
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,320
Speaker 3: And I realize this takes us immediately to the argument

714
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 3: about a basic income grant. But to keep just extending

715
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 3: it year after year after year. I mean, let's make

716
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 3: a decision and stick to it. I think maybe this

717
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 3: is the right moment. Your thoughts seven those you know

718
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 3: where you know of course, how to get in touch

719
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 3: with us and what the numbers are. But a double

720
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 3: ONEAA three seven and two and two one four four six.

721
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: O five sixty seven The Honey Show with Stephen Kruder's

722
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 1: Live on ninety two point seven and one six FM

723
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: streaming on the Prime Media Plus.

724
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:07,760
Speaker 2: NAP and DStv channel eight five six.

725
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 3: So much talk about the car industry over the last

726
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 3: couple of months. Persia making a big comeback in South Africa,

727
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 3: back now by Stilantis. That means, I suppose it has

728
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 3: world class engineering to fall back on. Sharpe Thims as

729
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 3: the commercial director at stillentis hey sel, good evening, Thanks

730
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 3: so much for coming in tonight. Thank you, Steven, great pleasure.

731
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 3: So Persia is now part of Stilantis. I think stillentis

732
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 3: we sort of see as a kind of North American brand. Really,

733
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 3: what does that mean for Persia in South Africa?

734
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 13: Yeah, so you know it's part of the international conglomerates.

735
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 13: It's you know, Italian, it's got French flair, it's got

736
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 13: the US like you say so for US in South Africa,

737
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 13: Pusia plays an integral part. It's one of the key

738
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:55,399
Speaker 13: volume brands in the future for US and obviously it's

739
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 13: a it's it's key within the segments that it's playing

740
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 13: in and we are you know, we were definitely in

741
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 13: twenty twenty six is a big focus on the LCV

742
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 13: range and the expansion of LCV within the South African market.

743
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 3: I mean the other thing is that is that you

744
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 3: have so much money and experience from different brands going

745
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 3: into automotive engineering at a time when advancement rarely matters.

746
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 3: I mean that must give you big people to fall

747
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 3: back on.

748
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think you know, from a certainly from a

749
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 13: different platform. And also if you look at our LCV range,

750
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 13: you know in various parts of the world where either

751
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 13: number one or a number three. In Europe we number one,

752
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 13: you know, the South America we number one and North

753
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 13: American number three. I think it gives us great, you know,

754
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 13: great confidence with the platforms that we have and whant

755
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 13: to bring to South Africa.

756
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,399
Speaker 3: Posures focus in South Africa right now. I mean which

757
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 3: other vehicles that are really central to your growth plans? Yeah,

758
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:54,839
Speaker 3: I think from from a.

759
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 13: Growth plan perspective, key this year is obviously the you know,

760
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 13: the full range of pickups, so from a right from

761
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 13: a single cap to workhorse professional double cabs and into

762
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 13: the last style. And then I think key for the

763
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 13: from May month onwards for the remainder of the year

764
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 13: is the launch of a full range full range vans

765
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 13: and shuttle so obviously from right from a one time

766
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 13: to right to two and a half time. So I

767
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 13: think that's key. You know, if you look at that

768
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,439
Speaker 13: segment this year, it's probably going to be over ten

769
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,880
Speaker 13: thousand units. So I think that's a big segment in

770
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 13: the LCV market that's been uncapped for quite some time.

771
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 13: There's a few players in that segment and we believe

772
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:36,879
Speaker 13: we have a great opportunity there.

773
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 3: I love the name of it, land Track, the Persia

774
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 3: land Trek Professional. I mean, what does it kind of

775
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 3: give you that other cars don't. I mean there's obviously

776
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 3: reliability is a big factor in this.

777
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 6: Yeah.

778
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 13: I think if you look, if we've done a lot

779
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 13: of work around the total total cost of ownership if

780
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 13: you look at the pass baskets. Also, it's got a

781
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 13: huge load box, especially the single cap you know, two pellets,

782
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 13: so there's a great great ground clearance. I mean, it's

783
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 13: got all the bells and whistles if you look at

784
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 13: the professional at the top of the range. So great,

785
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 13: great value proposition in the market.

786
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 3: The Persure two thousand and eight, the crossover suv. What

787
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 3: does that offer in the market at the moment. Well,

788
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 3: I think it's got a very niche signal of the market.

789
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 13: It was called the I think when we launched it

790
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 13: into twenty twenty one, great value for money, you know.

791
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 13: I mean it's a it's a good package. It's got

792
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 13: quite a punchy engine. All around, a good package. And

793
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,360
Speaker 13: you know, we've still got a lot of following and

794
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 13: loyal customers.

795
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 3: They obviously suit South African conditions very nicely. We like

796
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 3: to go for long drives, we like to go for

797
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 3: hot drives. We like to go hit the tower and

798
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 3: head north or south or to the coast or something.

799
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:54,280
Speaker 13: No sure, I mean I think there's there's in every customer.

800
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 13: From a customer expectation perspective, we can really full those needs.

801
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 13: From a mobility perspective.

802
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 3: After sales support. I think it's going to become a

803
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 3: really interesting aspect because we've got sort of other cars

804
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 3: coming in. They don't have quite the support, don't have

805
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 3: the networks, don't have the parts available. How are you

806
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 3: strengthening customer confidence in South Africa?

807
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 13: So we've consolidated, I think first and foremost, we've consolidated

808
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:21,240
Speaker 13: our parts and distribution center. It's in Roslin in Pretoria.

809
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 13: We carry roughly on any given day about five hundred

810
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,919
Speaker 13: million randsworth of parts within the PDC. So it's quite

811
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 13: big in other words to Kate exactly for that. You know,

812
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 13: we don't want vehicles off road, and I think key

813
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 13: to that is our mobility guaranteed mobility that we give

814
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 13: so if we don't, if you don't get your car

815
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 13: after forty eight hours out of the workshop, we then

816
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 13: provide you mobility guaranteed.

817
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 3: Sure. I mean that must be really interesting and a

818
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 3: really strong guarantee in difficult times, and people, especially these

819
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 3: kind of cars, like commercial vehicles, they align on them

820
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 3: to keep the business going. You lose deliveries for two

821
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 3: days in real trouble exactly for that.

822
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 13: So I think that it's a key, not just a

823
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 13: sales aspect, but also from a peace of mind. And

824
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 13: you know when you do your purchase at least you

825
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:09,240
Speaker 13: know that you're covered in that sense.

826
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:12,799
Speaker 3: To be part of a big group, I mean, it

827
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 3: changes the game. It gives you a lot more. I

828
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 3: suppose bunch is the word I'm really looking for.

829
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 13: Yeah, as I said, you know, we've got seven brands

830
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 13: in South Africa under the Solanta's brand, but lobally you

831
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 13: got a lot more access from as I said, from

832
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:31,279
Speaker 13: a platform and engine train and you know, powertrains and

833
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 13: solutions and also you know, into the future new energy

834
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 13: from a new energy perspective. So that gives us great

835
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 13: a great sort of leverage to utilize that within the

836
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 13: local lineup.

837
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 3: Shel Terms, thanks so much for coming in the commercial

838
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 3: director at Silantis. Sessa really appreciated.

839
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 1: Seven twos on the Money Shows six to eight.

840
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 3: Pm, eighteen after seven. A lot of talking, sort of

841
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 3: chatter this morning about Patrise motzepe lady yesterday confirmation that

842
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 3: Africa Rainbow Minerals he's no longer the executive chair, He'll

843
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 3: now be the non executive chaired Africa Rainbow Minerals. I

844
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 3: mean some of the sort of politics. Suggestions were, oh,

845
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 3: maybe he's running. He's not. From what I can see,

846
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 3: it's really because of a rules changed by the JAC.

847
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 3: And what they're saying is that you need to be

848
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 3: in a situation where the chairs is completely independent. And

849
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,760
Speaker 3: this makes complete sense. It's kind of in lineer everything

850
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 3: is the way things are going. I can't really see

851
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 3: an argument against it.

852
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 6: I did, and.

853
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 3: I'd be slightly cynical, and I mean, no disrespect to

854
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 3: Patrice Mutzepe. You can't disrespect anyone who's that good at football.

855
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 3: But the idea of the person who founded it changing

856
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 3: the job title and having less influence, I sort of

857
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 3: laughed a little bit. I mean, come on, surely you

858
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,360
Speaker 3: know if he founded the group, he's going to have

859
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 3: pretty much the same influence. That's different slightly from the

860
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,399
Speaker 3: technical role that he's supposed to play. But I did

861
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 3: sort of wonder. The reason I bring this up is

862
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 3: not to have a go at Patrice would say, but

863
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 3: there's no reason for me to. The reason I bring

864
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 3: it up is just a reminder of how often we

865
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 3: have things about rules. We bring in this to stop this,

866
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,919
Speaker 3: we bring in that to stop this, and things still happen.

867
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 3: We've had rules about accountancy for I don't know, in

868
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 3: South Africa one hundred and twenty years. Let's say we've

869
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:29,239
Speaker 3: had some kind of law rules about accountancy. Why is

870
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 3: Tom got he lit in such trouble because of an

871
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 3: accountancy scandal. I'm just saying it takes more than rules

872
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 3: to make it all work properly. Nineteen minutes after seven.

873
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 2: Money Show Africa Business Focus.

874
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 3: Dr Rotendo and Dingui Oh, Rutendo, I'm sorry it says

875
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 3: here doctor, I'm looking at the person who wrote it,

876
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 3: Professor Rutendo and Dingley good Evening, the founding director of

877
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 3: trib Africa Advisory, author of Rumble in the Jungle reloaded.

878
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 3: Sorry about that. I'm sure I'm going to get accused

879
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 3: of present error. A little later, let's start with the

880
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:10,879
Speaker 3: Ethiopian Airlines. They beat their revenue target very nicely.

881
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,240
Speaker 14: There, Stephen, and I'm all things to all men. Stephen,

882
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 14: just so, also no stress or don't do. But Itopian

883
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 14: Airlines Stephen half year is out four point four billion

884
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 14: US dollars in terms of revenue, which is a two

885
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 14: percent growth. Now we've always known Itiopia Airlines, Stephen obviously

886
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 14: the leading carrier on the continent been doing very well.

887
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 14: But it just highlights again in terms of ethopia is

888
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:44,760
Speaker 14: a country and the confidence is going in different sectors

889
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:49,399
Speaker 14: because of structural reform. Bearing mind bishop to the new

890
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 14: airport that is being built probably can kilometers just outside

891
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 14: at It's Ababa, a significant investment by the Americans. We

892
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,120
Speaker 14: also know that in the early last year they in

893
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 14: their stock exchange.

894
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 6: But in this case.

895
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:05,879
Speaker 14: They've probably looked in the in the last six months

896
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:08,720
Speaker 14: year on year half year on year steven and eleven

897
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 14: percent growth in terms of passenger movement and they've moved

898
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:16,240
Speaker 14: eleven million people in six months, so that's a significant number.

899
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 14: Cargo is also they've moved but four hundred and fifty

900
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 14: one thousand tons of cargo and their total destination are

901
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 14: one hundred and forty five So in a natural Steven,

902
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 14: It's open continues to grow.

903
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:31,399
Speaker 6: And I think the key highlight here.

904
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 14: Steven that this is on the back of visa bands,

905
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 14: tariff walls globally. Remember they obviously moved people all over

906
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 14: the world with a focus on America as a key

907
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 14: market and the challenges that and then the arecs who

908
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 14: dance around in countries, so even on the back of

909
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 14: the Stevens, they're still they've done extremely well regards to

910
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:53,800
Speaker 14: growing and performing with a twenty percent growth with a

911
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 14: two percent growth at a half year perspective.

912
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 3: It really is quite something to watch what's happening with

913
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 3: Nigeria and solar energy. They're a very big is this

914
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 3: right solar energy importer?

915
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 14: Solar energy important, So Nigeria has become probably one of

916
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 14: the big importers and they're actually outstripping Egypt in this

917
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 14: regards even in terms of importing solar panels and solar equipment.

918
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 6: And why this is so important for.

919
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 14: Nigeria, We know that historically oil gas has been its focus,

920
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 14: but intentionally they have been transitioned in Stephen, to alternative

921
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 14: power means and obviously solar is a no brainer. They've

922
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 14: got significant investments with Gods the solar panels and they're

923
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,399
Speaker 14: imputing them. So the upside is that they're importing them

924
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:45,279
Speaker 14: from into the country and replacing the sort of the

925
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:48,840
Speaker 14: structures that were there before. Nigeria's announced one giga what

926
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 14: solar panel factory that they want to invest in. And

927
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 14: why this is important Stephen, is that obviously a lot

928
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,440
Speaker 14: of money is being spent in terms of important and

929
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 14: predominantory from China. So the key thing is industrialization and

930
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 14: Manu factory locally. Egypt, s A and Utopia also following

931
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 14: in the same suit, so Africa and itself. Stephen has

932
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 14: become the biggest market for solar panel and solar equipment destination,

933
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 14: so that's a big thing. Algeria also is become quite

934
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 14: a significant player. And also the other thing that is

935
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 14: that has facilitated this Stephen obviously transitioning from the from

936
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 14: the oil and gas lands from a power perspective, which

937
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 14: that whole value chain is still significant. I mean figures

938
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:30,879
Speaker 14: have just come out Stephen, the national oil company that's

939
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 14: the se for Nigeria that that oversees this has reported

940
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 14: a four point two billion US dollar uh after tax profit.

941
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 14: So oil and gas still a significant pai of the market.

942
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 14: But the key thing transitioning to solar is it's clean energy,

943
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 14: It contributes industrialization. Is they build that factory and it

944
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 14: takes the country in the right direction. And we've seen Angola,

945
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 14: Botswana also diversifying from the oils and the and the diamonds,

946
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 14: et cetera, et cetera, which is a great story for

947
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:02,960
Speaker 14: Africa in terms of moving in the right direction. So

948
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 14: looking at the story, Steven, the upside obviously in terms

949
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 14: of them plansitioning from earl and gas and going to solar.

950
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:12,880
Speaker 14: The downside is they still need to manufacture locally because

951
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 14: a big importation bill is still there getting things from China.

952
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 3: No sure, And I mean it's all moving in the

953
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 3: right way. Don't Did anyone tell Donald Trump the meaning

954
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 3: from OILD for solar and Egypt is marking. It's half

955
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 3: a trillion dollars to finance projects across Africa. That's a

956
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 3: ton of money.

957
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:34,880
Speaker 6: That's a ton of money, Steven.

958
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 14: And why I like the story, Steven, because it's a

959
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 14: it's a South al it's an African initiative. Egypt obviously

960
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:43,720
Speaker 14: has got a key leadership responsibility in the African Union

961
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:49,320
Speaker 14: newped framework and their focus is obviously to invest money.

962
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 14: They've got EU clearance, there's a whole certification while our

963
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:55,919
Speaker 14: alignment process that's there. So from a global perspective, they've

964
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:58,400
Speaker 14: got that perspective, they've got that go ahead and the

965
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 14: focus really Steven, is to deal with issues that affect

966
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,800
Speaker 14: the continent in terms of unemployment, in terms of health,

967
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 14: in terms of infrastructure, and the fund is limited to

968
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,320
Speaker 14: the Africa Business Summit as well. There's a big business summit.

969
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 14: I think they's committed with one hundred billion, but I

970
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:16,239
Speaker 14: think the positive upside, yes, Stephen, is that they might

971
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:16,919
Speaker 14: be up north.

972
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 6: Africa is big, but.

973
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:22,239
Speaker 14: They're doing a leading initiative for five hundred billion US

974
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 14: dollars to develop three hundred projects over the continent to

975
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 14: make the right impact. So a good story coming from Africa.

976
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 14: African's leading trying to solve our African problems.

977
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:36,800
Speaker 3: Really really important. As Zambia is mining regulated, they suspended

978
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,400
Speaker 3: operation at Mapani's Muffleira.

979
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:43,760
Speaker 14: Mine, Mopanu mouf Felida mine, more Pani.

980
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:45,960
Speaker 6: As we know, Stephen is probably all.

981
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 14: Zambia is the second biggest producer of copper on the continent.

982
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:53,320
Speaker 14: The first is the dr se more Pani is fifty

983
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 14: one percent owned by a UAE outfit called ir H

984
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 14: and the other one is owned by a local by

985
00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 14: the state owned enterprise. The reason, unfortunately, which is quite sad,

986
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 14: is that the regulator has done the right thing.

987
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:09,840
Speaker 6: It's been the one or two accidents that have happened

988
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 6: on the mind.

989
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 14: I'm accounted for and I guess the auditibility of what

990
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 14: has happened hasn't been clear, so the regulator has stepped up. Obviously,

991
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 14: this is quite a big impact because Zambia in terms

992
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 14: of copper is more part is a key player in

993
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 14: that space. Steven It's copper output year on year has

994
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:29,480
Speaker 14: grown by ten percent, so they are producing about eight

995
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 14: hundred and twenty metric tons of copper and they are

996
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 14: targeted to produce twenty by twenty thirty one three million

997
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:40,760
Speaker 14: metric tons of copper. But this does not mean anything

998
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 14: if there's not proper infrastructure rules in place from a

999
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:46,880
Speaker 14: health and safety perspective, and that's why the regulator has

1000
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,760
Speaker 14: stepped in. And in terms of investigating the issue, hopefully

1001
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:54,239
Speaker 14: it's quickly resolved, identified and accountability and safety is breaking

1002
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 14: line so that people can continue mining.

1003
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 6: But because at the end of the day, jobs are.

1004
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:00,879
Speaker 14: Impacted and that translates to lives, so hopefully that will

1005
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:01,760
Speaker 14: come out of the place.

1006
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 3: To Stephen and then in Mogadishu, Somalia, and we've heard

1007
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 3: so many difficult things over the years, they've now got

1008
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:10,879
Speaker 3: a bowling alley, we've.

1009
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 14: Got a bowling ellie and magadish Somalia Steven Renoit. Obviously,

1010
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 14: Morgadish has gone through a civil war for the last

1011
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:21,960
Speaker 14: thirty five years, but because of the focus on safety.

1012
00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 14: One of the keyert sheeties that has come up, and

1013
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 14: it seems to be led by locals, is the famous

1014
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 14: Bowling center. And it's it's a basic bowling It's attracted

1015
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:35,920
Speaker 14: a great hype and hip in the city. Uh and

1016
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 14: really people just come in. It's a social gathering place.

1017
00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 14: It just gives a breadth of fresh air for a

1018
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 14: continent or for a country that has gone through so

1019
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 14: much from a commulsions perspective over the last number of decades,

1020
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 14: and it's given young people and old people a place

1021
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 14: to come to find entertainment.

1022
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 6: Forty young people have been employed.

1023
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:59,920
Speaker 14: So that's that's the obviously believe with the unemployment problem.

1024
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 14: Although the unemployment rate is twenty one percent, not as

1025
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 14: better South Africa, but still Stephen, you know this is

1026
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 14: a breath of Frascia or the Magadian story that we

1027
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 14: know is that a hard civil war history and obviously

1028
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:14,759
Speaker 14: still issues, but it ultimately something like this has made

1029
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 14: such a social impact both locally and in the dashport

1030
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,879
Speaker 14: or realm of Magadicia and people coming from all over

1031
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 14: the world back into to Somalia and studies like this

1032
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:27,480
Speaker 14: excitement because it gives them a hope in terms of

1033
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 14: where the country and the city can go.

1034
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:32,160
Speaker 3: No sure, Professor Routendu and Dingley, thank you so much.

1035
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 3: Juning Director of Tribe Africa Advisory Personal Finance, with Warrant

1036
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 3: Ingram twenty three minutes now to eight the time we're

1037
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:44,239
Speaker 3: an Ingram of course as a certified financial planner at

1038
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:47,839
Speaker 3: Galileo Capital. How's it warrant tonight? We're talking about how

1039
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:50,920
Speaker 3: to maximize your money when you can't control the markets,

1040
00:56:51,239 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 3: and I presume you're talking specifically about what we're seeing

1041
00:56:54,640 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 3: at the moment where things are incredibly volatile, they're very

1042
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:02,360
Speaker 3: high levels of fear, and no one knows what AI

1043
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:04,160
Speaker 3: is going to do except that it's going to bring

1044
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 3: a lot of change.

1045
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:07,880
Speaker 11: It's going to bring a lot of change.

1046
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:12,719
Speaker 15: And I think you know, the people forecasting, you know,

1047
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:16,160
Speaker 15: the end of jobs in the software sector and maybe

1048
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 15: the end of all work if you listen to some

1049
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:22,880
Speaker 15: of the big tech CEOs, and to me, I think

1050
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 15: it's you know, it's an interesting conversation. I'm not sure

1051
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 15: what we do about it when we're trying to manage

1052
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 15: our money and plan for the next five, ten, fifteen years.

1053
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:38,320
Speaker 15: And when we see these big technological changes going right

1054
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 15: back through history, it's true that they do change things,

1055
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:45,720
Speaker 15: but I always think, you know, if you study history,

1056
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 15: what happens is these changes happen much more slowly than

1057
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 15: everybody thinks, and sometimes the change is bigger than everybody thought,

1058
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 15: but in fundamentally different directions than what we predicted. So

1059
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 15: for me, you know, watching what's happening in the space

1060
00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 15: and reading with interest, I find it fascinating. I find

1061
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 15: the technology and the change that's happening very interesting.

1062
00:58:10,360 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 11: I'm just not sure.

1063
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 15: I believe all the prognosticators, and some of them are

1064
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 15: way cleverer than me, but they lose sight of one

1065
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 15: very important factor. On the one superpower they don't have,

1066
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 15: is they need to remember that as humanity, we are

1067
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 15: fantastically terrible at making accurate predictions.

1068
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 3: So we should give it up. Yeah, obviously we won't.

1069
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:39,640
Speaker 3: Otherwise my show Thank You won't exist. The big lesson,

1070
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 3: I suppose is something you've said many times and I'm

1071
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 3: not going to use your d word, is that markets

1072
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 3: tend to create wealth. Putting your money into the stock

1073
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 3: market because of what it actually is, which is putting

1074
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:54,080
Speaker 3: your money into the economy tends to work for you.

1075
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 15: It does, and I think we need to you know,

1076
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 15: stand that, you know, two things happen with us in

1077
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:09,120
Speaker 15: in the wealth creation space. One, we we always underestimate

1078
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:13,000
Speaker 15: how much money can be made over long periods of time,

1079
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 15: and we all always overestimate how much can be made

1080
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 15: in a short period of time. So so I mean

1081
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 15: to give you a real example. You know, well, we'll

1082
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 15: all know stories of the people that made a huge

1083
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 15: amount of money in in you know, cryptos or in

1084
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 15: certain textures that did incredibly well. And we believe that

1085
00:59:32,080 --> 00:59:34,440
Speaker 15: that is the way that investing works because those are

1086
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 15: the stories that attract a lot of attention. And you know,

1087
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 15: it's it doesn't kind of make headlines when someone puts

1088
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 15: out a story saying, you know, Joe blogs made you know,

1089
00:59:45,040 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 15: two million dollars of wealth over the last thirty years

1090
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 15: by saving a bit of money every month and letting

1091
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 15: the stock markets grow grow Joe's money over that time.

1092
00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:58,120
Speaker 15: It's it's not exciting. In fact, I think wealth creation,

1093
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 15: if you think it's entertain you're doing it wrong. So

1094
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 15: we need to know that. I think as individuals we

1095
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 15: need to understand time and patience are real superpowers in

1096
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:14,440
Speaker 15: the investing game, and if you can exercise those, it

1097
01:00:14,480 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 15: gives you a huge advantage over the big pension funds,

1098
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 15: the big unit trust companies, the professional investors, the hedge

1099
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:21,960
Speaker 15: fund managers, all of them.

1100
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:23,760
Speaker 11: Because they don't have time.

1101
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 15: They get judged every month, every quarter, they get ranked

1102
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 15: once a year. There's awards that get given for the

1103
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:31,919
Speaker 15: good ones, the ones that have done well over a year,

1104
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 15: as if somehow one year makes all the difference. And

1105
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:37,160
Speaker 15: what we need to do with our own money is

1106
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:38,959
Speaker 15: we don't have to win awards. We need to build

1107
01:00:39,000 --> 01:00:41,360
Speaker 15: our wealth over long periods of time, so our money

1108
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 15: looks after us. And so I think being able to

1109
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:47,440
Speaker 15: say I can't predict the future, I can maybe have

1110
01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 15: a good conversation about it, and I've got time on

1111
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 15: my side gives you a massive advantage over the rest.

1112
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 3: I suppose the thing is what to do when markets

1113
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 3: start to fall. And this is where the news flow

1114
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 3: at the moment is quite scary and all sorts of

1115
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:06,680
Speaker 3: different ways. I can't tell you what's going to happen

1116
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:10,440
Speaker 3: in Iran. It's been such a sustained run in US

1117
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 3: markets that surely there's reason to worry. You know, what

1118
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 3: are those signs start to mount up a little bit,

1119
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 3: and I think you're allowed to lose a little bit

1120
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:19,440
Speaker 3: of sleep at night about it.

1121
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:24,720
Speaker 15: You can, and and I mean I think a lot

1122
01:01:24,760 --> 01:01:27,200
Speaker 15: of us that you know, do this investing thing for

1123
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:27,600
Speaker 15: a living.

1124
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 11: We get sucked into the cycle.

1125
01:01:31,240 --> 01:01:35,320
Speaker 15: Of worry, the wall of worry, and it pays us

1126
01:01:35,400 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 15: to just stop and think about this for a second.

1127
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 15: We've been through if you think about the last sort

1128
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 15: of let's one hundred and twenty six years. Why that's

1129
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:47,000
Speaker 15: relevant is we've been through some massive wars. We've been

1130
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:51,440
Speaker 15: through technological change from you know, steam engines and you know,

1131
01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 15: horse drawn cars right through to you know, supersonic jets

1132
01:01:55,960 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 15: and and you know cell phones, which which really changed

1133
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 15: the world. You know, I don't I don't think you know,

1134
01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:03,560
Speaker 15: someone at the age of twenty five can conceptualize what

1135
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 15: it's like to live without a smartphone. All the Internet

1136
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 15: and all of that has happened, and guess what wealth

1137
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:17,360
Speaker 15: was created. People built retirement funds and developed long term savings,

1138
01:02:17,440 --> 01:02:21,320
Speaker 15: and their lives are immeasurably immeasurably better than those of

1139
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 15: the people in let's say the eighteen eighties. So just

1140
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:29,400
Speaker 15: assuming that you know, geopolitical change or technological change will

1141
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:33,040
Speaker 15: always result in bad outcomes, I think is a mistake.

1142
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:37,360
Speaker 15: But unfortunately that's how we are wired. We don't like change,

1143
01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:42,320
Speaker 15: especially dramatic change, and we reacted usually very badly as humanity.

1144
01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:44,720
Speaker 15: So I guess the you know, the aim is to

1145
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:48,520
Speaker 15: say it's going to be unsettling. There will be you know,

1146
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:52,080
Speaker 15: sectors or people that will lose jobs when there is

1147
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 15: a big change. And I think something like tariffs with

1148
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:58,800
Speaker 15: Trump and and a changing world order will also cause

1149
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:02,800
Speaker 15: some businesses to to die just simply from time. You know,

1150
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,440
Speaker 15: if you're a fruit farmer and you're exporting all your

1151
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 15: fruit to the States and suddenly Trump, you know, stops

1152
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:11,640
Speaker 15: buying your fruit, then you know, potentially you might not

1153
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:13,880
Speaker 15: have enough time to get through the cycle where you

1154
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:16,560
Speaker 15: can find a new bar in another country. So I'm

1155
01:03:16,560 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 15: not saying that there's no pain, but I think this

1156
01:03:19,720 --> 01:03:22,480
Speaker 15: the sort of massive concern. I haven't seen people this

1157
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:27,000
Speaker 15: unhappy about stock markets growing in my nearly thirty year

1158
01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 15: history in the investment world, and I think we need

1159
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:30,480
Speaker 15: a bit of perspective here.

1160
01:03:30,840 --> 01:03:34,680
Speaker 3: No, sure, that's a that's such an interesting point. So, okay,

1161
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:37,840
Speaker 3: there's so much I can't control. What can you control?

1162
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:43,680
Speaker 15: I think I'm gonna I'm gonna. It's going to become

1163
01:03:43,680 --> 01:03:46,920
Speaker 15: my mantra. You know, owning your your your lack of

1164
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:49,840
Speaker 15: ability to predict is a superpower. Knowing that you don't

1165
01:03:49,880 --> 01:03:52,240
Speaker 15: know is the thing you need to to kind of own.

1166
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 15: Once you do that, it allows you to say that

1167
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 15: there is so much that I can't control. I can't

1168
01:03:58,040 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 15: influence markets. I can't actually we decide to buy shares

1169
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:04,920
Speaker 15: now because I know that things are going to go

1170
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 15: up over the next three months.

1171
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:09,320
Speaker 11: It's it's an impossibility. So once you make.

1172
01:04:09,120 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 15: That decision that then you can say, okay, let's look

1173
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:15,360
Speaker 15: at the things that I can control. I can decide

1174
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:18,480
Speaker 15: how much of my money should go into stock markets,

1175
01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:22,480
Speaker 15: bond markets, property markets, and cash. I can decide how

1176
01:04:22,560 --> 01:04:26,800
Speaker 15: much goes into the essay markets, other emerging markets, and

1177
01:04:27,200 --> 01:04:31,400
Speaker 15: global markets. Once you make those decisions and you develop

1178
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:34,760
Speaker 15: a little bit of discipline around keeping that mix of assets.

1179
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 15: So I think the one is how much you keep

1180
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:40,200
Speaker 15: in shares. You should be disciplined about maintaining that and

1181
01:04:40,200 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 15: and then being sure to manage that every you know,

1182
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:45,680
Speaker 15: every six months or every twelve months. And the same

1183
01:04:45,760 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 15: with your your local versus global exposure. If you've decided,

1184
01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:52,800
Speaker 15: you know, fifty percent in South Africa and fifty percent globally,

1185
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 15: then once a year, make sure that you're getting that

1186
01:04:55,520 --> 01:04:59,120
Speaker 15: balance right and and and staying in line and in

1187
01:04:59,160 --> 01:05:02,520
Speaker 15: that instance, agn boring the news, ignoring all the prognostic

1188
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 15: heacters because they don't know. And once you remind yourself

1189
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:09,240
Speaker 15: that you don't know, then sticking to your strategy gives

1190
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:12,960
Speaker 15: you the advantage. And I think a lot of the time,

1191
01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:15,880
Speaker 15: once you've developed that kind of a framework for making decisions,

1192
01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:19,080
Speaker 15: there will be times when you get emotional and worried

1193
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:22,360
Speaker 15: and afraid. But it's the framework that helps you ignore

1194
01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 15: that stuff to say, well, you know, I kind of

1195
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:26,280
Speaker 15: almost want to say on the top of your piece

1196
01:05:26,320 --> 01:05:29,240
Speaker 15: of paper, to say, remember, you don't know. And once

1197
01:05:29,280 --> 01:05:31,960
Speaker 15: you know that, then you say, I can be worried,

1198
01:05:32,040 --> 01:05:34,760
Speaker 15: but I mustn't let the worry affect my investment decisions,

1199
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:38,520
Speaker 15: because those are twenty or thirty year decisions, and what

1200
01:05:38,680 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 15: happens over the next year when I look back in

1201
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 15: ten years time, it'll be interesting, but it won't be

1202
01:05:44,080 --> 01:05:47,920
Speaker 15: fundamental to whether I've made a financial future or not.

1203
01:05:49,960 --> 01:05:53,439
Speaker 3: Does it help the longer you do it? So, I mean,

1204
01:05:54,040 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 3: if there's going to be a situation where markets do

1205
01:05:57,320 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 3: go down at some point, you know, quite regularly, you

1206
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:04,120
Speaker 3: start to realize what the traps are and you start

1207
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:06,640
Speaker 3: to understand it. I mean that must help you to

1208
01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:09,240
Speaker 3: manage your emotions because you get used to the idea.

1209
01:06:11,400 --> 01:06:14,760
Speaker 15: Yeah, so I think you know, as a reminder, the

1210
01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:19,000
Speaker 15: stock market over a ten year period, whether in South

1211
01:06:19,000 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 15: Africa or overseas, it almost always goes up over ten years,

1212
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:26,440
Speaker 15: and it's pretty reliably. You know, it gives you growth

1213
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:29,480
Speaker 15: significantly more than what you would have lost to inflation,

1214
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:34,560
Speaker 15: so your wealth is created far faster than the cost

1215
01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:36,120
Speaker 15: of living erodes that wealth.

1216
01:06:36,400 --> 01:06:39,400
Speaker 11: So over a ten year period very rawding to be

1217
01:06:39,440 --> 01:06:40,040
Speaker 11: an investor.

1218
01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:44,640
Speaker 15: If you remain invested, however, almost every single year out

1219
01:06:44,680 --> 01:06:47,040
Speaker 15: of that ten year period, you'll be looking at your

1220
01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:49,560
Speaker 15: statement somewhere in that year and you will be down.

1221
01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:52,200
Speaker 15: And that's the thing you've got to be comfortable with.

1222
01:06:52,240 --> 01:06:54,400
Speaker 15: You've got to say, from the first of January to

1223
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:56,880
Speaker 15: the thirty first of December, somewhere along the line, my

1224
01:06:57,000 --> 01:07:00,040
Speaker 15: investments will be down and most of the time and

1225
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:02,920
Speaker 15: they'll be down ten percent. So to give it context,

1226
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:06,480
Speaker 15: you know, percentages don't sound like big things. But you've

1227
01:07:06,480 --> 01:07:08,720
Speaker 15: got a million rand, and somewhere along the line you've

1228
01:07:08,760 --> 01:07:11,520
Speaker 15: only got nine hundred thousand rand because the markets went down,

1229
01:07:11,720 --> 01:07:14,440
Speaker 15: so you lost one hundred thousand rand. And you know,

1230
01:07:14,480 --> 01:07:16,440
Speaker 15: someone like me will be saying to you, don't worry,

1231
01:07:16,480 --> 01:07:17,080
Speaker 15: that's normal.

1232
01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:18,120
Speaker 11: Everything is fine.

1233
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:18,360
Speaker 6: Now.

1234
01:07:18,360 --> 01:07:20,360
Speaker 15: It took an incredible amount of time to say that

1235
01:07:20,360 --> 01:07:24,080
Speaker 15: one hundred thousand, so it's difficult. But remembering that if

1236
01:07:24,080 --> 01:07:26,800
Speaker 15: you stay invested and you let that money recover, that's

1237
01:07:26,840 --> 01:07:30,160
Speaker 15: the superpower. So I think you know, understanding that markets

1238
01:07:30,200 --> 01:07:33,960
Speaker 15: give you more than their take is important, and they

1239
01:07:34,080 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 15: do it every single year. And there will be a

1240
01:07:36,680 --> 01:07:38,800
Speaker 15: year like two thousand and eight, or like the year

1241
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:42,960
Speaker 15: two thousand where markets take away thirty percent. Again, you

1242
01:07:43,040 --> 01:07:45,640
Speaker 15: start with a million, somewhere along the line, you're down

1243
01:07:45,680 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 15: to seven hundred thousand rand. I mean, that's a terrifying drop.

1244
01:07:48,960 --> 01:07:51,160
Speaker 15: And the trick there is to say, I don't know

1245
01:07:51,160 --> 01:07:53,360
Speaker 15: what's going to happen. In other words, I don't know

1246
01:07:53,440 --> 01:07:55,360
Speaker 15: that it's going to go from seven hundred to two

1247
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 15: hundred thousand. The likelihood is history repeats itself and it

1248
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:02,080
Speaker 15: goes from seven hundred back to a million at some point.

1249
01:08:02,200 --> 01:08:03,760
Speaker 15: And I think that's the thing we need to be

1250
01:08:03,920 --> 01:08:07,080
Speaker 15: very clear on is control our emersions and give ourselves

1251
01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:09,120
Speaker 15: time for these investments to do their job.

1252
01:08:10,520 --> 01:08:14,160
Speaker 3: We're talking to Warren Ingram, the of course certified financial

1253
01:08:14,200 --> 01:08:17,479
Speaker 3: planner at Galileo Capital. Your questions for him on seven

1254
01:08:17,520 --> 01:08:20,840
Speaker 3: two seven o two one seven oh two. Raymond's got

1255
01:08:20,880 --> 01:08:23,479
Speaker 3: in touch. Raymond's question for you, Warren, is is there

1256
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:26,759
Speaker 3: an ideal amount to invest in my retirementtenuity? The taxi

1257
01:08:26,880 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 3: is nearly over, we just a couple of weeks away.

1258
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:31,360
Speaker 3: I'm not sure whether I should add more to my

1259
01:08:31,720 --> 01:08:34,679
Speaker 3: ram I retirement in unity as I've contributed ten percent

1260
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:37,880
Speaker 3: of my income over the year. We'll get an answer

1261
01:08:37,880 --> 01:08:40,120
Speaker 3: for your Raymond in just a moment. Eleven minutes now

1262
01:08:40,160 --> 01:08:40,920
Speaker 3: to eight o'clock.

1263
01:08:42,640 --> 01:08:45,160
Speaker 9: The Money Show Steve Crotes is brought to you by

1264
01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:50,200
Speaker 9: Abscess cib Discover the latest trends shaping digital assets across Africa.

1265
01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:54,440
Speaker 9: Download the ABSTH Africa Digital Assets Insights twenty twenty.

1266
01:08:54,160 --> 01:09:00,280
Speaker 11: Five Personal Finance with Warren Ingram.

1267
01:09:00,560 --> 01:09:04,679
Speaker 3: Nine minutes to eight the time question from Raymond for you, Warren,

1268
01:09:04,880 --> 01:09:07,680
Speaker 3: is there an ideal amount to invest in my retire intinuity?

1269
01:09:07,720 --> 01:09:10,240
Speaker 3: The taxi is nearly over. I'm not sure whether I

1270
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 3: should add more to my ra have already contributed ten

1271
01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:16,800
Speaker 3: percent of my income over the year. Ten percent of

1272
01:09:16,840 --> 01:09:18,080
Speaker 3: the income. Is that a good amount?

1273
01:09:19,600 --> 01:09:22,240
Speaker 15: It's it's not a bad amount, and you know, saving,

1274
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:24,679
Speaker 15: you know, saving is always good. So so I don't

1275
01:09:24,680 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 15: want to in a kind of you know, poor scorn

1276
01:09:27,920 --> 01:09:31,120
Speaker 15: on the percentage, but I would say, you know, the

1277
01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:34,160
Speaker 15: to me, the range should be around fifteen to thirty

1278
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:38,160
Speaker 15: percent of your income. And thirty percent is very tough.

1279
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:40,600
Speaker 15: I think that's a you know, that's a steep target.

1280
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:43,000
Speaker 15: But I think that's for people that you know, that

1281
01:09:43,080 --> 01:09:46,679
Speaker 15: want to get to financial freedom much younger and earlier

1282
01:09:46,680 --> 01:09:50,840
Speaker 15: than that age fifty five or sixty. But if you're

1283
01:09:50,840 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 15: aiming to get to financial freedom, you know, around about

1284
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:56,920
Speaker 15: sixty sixty five, then ten percent is going to be

1285
01:09:56,920 --> 01:09:58,960
Speaker 15: a bit low unless you're saving a lot of money

1286
01:09:58,960 --> 01:10:02,200
Speaker 15: elsewhere as well. So I think fifteen percent is a

1287
01:10:02,520 --> 01:10:05,120
Speaker 15: good number. And you know, as you said, we've got

1288
01:10:06,080 --> 01:10:07,840
Speaker 15: a couple of weeks till till the end of the

1289
01:10:08,200 --> 01:10:11,160
Speaker 15: tax here, so I think take advantage. You know, most

1290
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:14,000
Speaker 15: retirement inunities you can do a top up, you know,

1291
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:15,720
Speaker 15: an ad hoc top up, so you don't just have

1292
01:10:15,800 --> 01:10:18,120
Speaker 15: to do a man Ski debit order. You can actually

1293
01:10:18,120 --> 01:10:21,599
Speaker 15: do a lump sum as well. And just remembering that,

1294
01:10:21,920 --> 01:10:24,880
Speaker 15: you know, retirement innuities are so flexible now in terms

1295
01:10:24,920 --> 01:10:25,759
Speaker 15: of where they can invest.

1296
01:10:25,920 --> 01:10:27,400
Speaker 11: You know, forty five percent can.

1297
01:10:27,320 --> 01:10:30,040
Speaker 15: Be invested overseas, and and if you look at what

1298
01:10:30,120 --> 01:10:32,400
Speaker 15: balanced funds have been doing over the last year or two,

1299
01:10:33,080 --> 01:10:36,719
Speaker 15: they've delivered fantastic returns for investors because of the bond markets,

1300
01:10:36,760 --> 01:10:40,360
Speaker 15: the local stock market, and even the international market. So

1301
01:10:40,640 --> 01:10:42,920
Speaker 15: it's not as if your your your money goes into

1302
01:10:42,960 --> 01:10:44,960
Speaker 15: your RN then just goes to die. I mean it

1303
01:10:45,240 --> 01:10:48,400
Speaker 15: can grow very nicely, and so getting the tax benefits

1304
01:10:49,160 --> 01:10:53,920
Speaker 15: and the growth from that over time. Yeah, I'm going

1305
01:10:53,960 --> 01:10:57,320
Speaker 15: to stay fifteen percent if you've got the to do

1306
01:10:57,360 --> 01:11:00,559
Speaker 15: it is your minimum. But if you're if you're really

1307
01:11:00,560 --> 01:11:03,120
Speaker 15: scraping the barrel and you're getting to ten percent, well done.

1308
01:11:03,160 --> 01:11:05,280
Speaker 15: You know, I think it's way better than doing nothing.

1309
01:11:05,920 --> 01:11:07,880
Speaker 3: Sure, such an interesting way of looking at a Raymond.

1310
01:11:07,920 --> 01:11:11,839
Speaker 3: Thank you. Okay, So markets are rising and then they're falling.

1311
01:11:11,920 --> 01:11:15,120
Speaker 3: They're falling quite dramatically at times, Warren, What can you

1312
01:11:15,200 --> 01:11:17,759
Speaker 3: do in these moments? How do you manage it?

1313
01:11:20,160 --> 01:11:22,559
Speaker 15: Okay, So, let's say we are going to hit a

1314
01:11:22,560 --> 01:11:25,000
Speaker 15: big drop in the next twelve or eighteen months, and

1315
01:11:25,479 --> 01:11:27,639
Speaker 15: you know it's just kind of one tariff too many,

1316
01:11:27,680 --> 01:11:30,160
Speaker 15: one piece of bad news on the geopolitics side, too much,

1317
01:11:30,200 --> 01:11:32,639
Speaker 15: or whatever the deal is, and we see markets taking

1318
01:11:33,000 --> 01:11:35,800
Speaker 15: a big fall. I think you should be looking at

1319
01:11:35,880 --> 01:11:39,479
Speaker 15: your cash flow. If you're someone that saves regularly, can

1320
01:11:39,520 --> 01:11:42,559
Speaker 15: you find a way to save a bit more in

1321
01:11:42,600 --> 01:11:46,280
Speaker 15: the times when markets are down fifteen or thirty percent,

1322
01:11:46,560 --> 01:11:50,640
Speaker 15: Because if you can, you're buying a quality collection of

1323
01:11:51,080 --> 01:11:54,479
Speaker 15: assets at a huge discount, and that's a really smart

1324
01:11:54,479 --> 01:11:57,160
Speaker 15: thing to do. So I think whatever you do if

1325
01:11:57,200 --> 01:12:01,280
Speaker 15: markets are falling, don't stop saving, and if you know, save,

1326
01:12:01,800 --> 01:12:04,960
Speaker 15: actually accelerate your savings, save a bit more. If you're

1327
01:12:05,000 --> 01:12:07,160
Speaker 15: on the other side of that spectrum where you already

1328
01:12:07,200 --> 01:12:09,880
Speaker 15: retired and you're living off your investments and you see

1329
01:12:09,880 --> 01:12:12,680
Speaker 15: a drop like that fifteen to thirty percent, it is

1330
01:12:12,840 --> 01:12:15,599
Speaker 15: very scary. I think the one thing you can do is,

1331
01:12:15,920 --> 01:12:19,479
Speaker 15: you know, if your financial position is good, you know,

1332
01:12:19,640 --> 01:12:22,360
Speaker 15: maybe you don't stop drawing your monthly income. I mean,

1333
01:12:22,400 --> 01:12:24,880
Speaker 15: I think we all need to live. But what you

1334
01:12:24,920 --> 01:12:28,240
Speaker 15: can do is just delay your big purchases. So, for example,

1335
01:12:28,280 --> 01:12:30,280
Speaker 15: if this is the year you were planning to buy

1336
01:12:30,320 --> 01:12:33,479
Speaker 15: that replacement car after five years or seven years or

1337
01:12:33,520 --> 01:12:37,000
Speaker 15: whatever the deal is, and the markets really fall, then

1338
01:12:37,080 --> 01:12:39,479
Speaker 15: perhaps look at delaying that purchase for a year or

1339
01:12:39,520 --> 01:12:43,200
Speaker 15: two until the markets have recovered. And you know, maybe

1340
01:12:43,200 --> 01:12:45,439
Speaker 15: you were planning an overseas holiday and if it's not

1341
01:12:45,479 --> 01:12:47,720
Speaker 15: to go and see family and it was just an experience,

1342
01:12:48,040 --> 01:12:50,160
Speaker 15: can you rather swap that around and do a local

1343
01:12:50,200 --> 01:12:53,320
Speaker 15: experience and do the overseas holiday, you know, a bit

1344
01:12:53,400 --> 01:12:56,120
Speaker 15: late to once things have gone better. So there are

1345
01:12:56,160 --> 01:12:58,160
Speaker 15: things that you can do around your expenses which would

1346
01:12:58,160 --> 01:12:58,919
Speaker 15: help a lot.

1347
01:12:59,760 --> 01:13:02,559
Speaker 3: If you're quite nervous about markets. I mean, you mentioned

1348
01:13:02,600 --> 01:13:05,679
Speaker 3: an emergency fund quite often. Is that a good idea

1349
01:13:05,760 --> 01:13:08,479
Speaker 3: maybe to do something with that, to maybe bank it bigger?

1350
01:13:09,880 --> 01:13:10,120
Speaker 11: Yeah?

1351
01:13:10,800 --> 01:13:13,120
Speaker 15: I like this idea for people that are you know,

1352
01:13:13,160 --> 01:13:15,839
Speaker 15: that know themselves well enough to know that they're very panicky.

1353
01:13:16,200 --> 01:13:18,000
Speaker 15: If you're in that position and you're looking at your

1354
01:13:18,040 --> 01:13:20,320
Speaker 15: portfolios and things have gone very well, and you keep

1355
01:13:20,360 --> 01:13:22,160
Speaker 15: thinking that you know this is going to be bad

1356
01:13:22,240 --> 01:13:25,920
Speaker 15: news somewhere along the line, consider just increasing your emergency fund.

1357
01:13:26,160 --> 01:13:28,200
Speaker 15: What it does is it buys you peace of mind.

1358
01:13:28,240 --> 01:13:31,040
Speaker 15: So it's not a great investment decision, but it becomes

1359
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:34,840
Speaker 15: a phenomenal behavioral tool, and over time, maybe having a

1360
01:13:34,840 --> 01:13:37,960
Speaker 15: big emergency fund stops you panicking and selling out your

1361
01:13:37,960 --> 01:13:41,519
Speaker 15: investments at the worst moment. And if you get through

1362
01:13:41,560 --> 01:13:43,920
Speaker 15: the bad time and you've got a big emergency fund

1363
01:13:44,200 --> 01:13:46,880
Speaker 15: and the markets are still down, it does allow you

1364
01:13:46,920 --> 01:13:49,360
Speaker 15: to draw on some of that emergency fund to then

1365
01:13:49,400 --> 01:13:51,760
Speaker 15: start deploying it back into the markets to get those

1366
01:13:51,760 --> 01:13:54,600
Speaker 15: investments at a discount. But it's a great way to

1367
01:13:54,680 --> 01:13:57,519
Speaker 15: kind of manage your emotions. With the bigger cash pile

1368
01:13:57,560 --> 01:14:00,920
Speaker 15: then potentially you would actually need. From a theoretical point.

1369
01:14:00,720 --> 01:14:06,639
Speaker 3: Of view, so different moments where markets go down feel

1370
01:14:06,640 --> 01:14:09,000
Speaker 3: different because there are different factors to them and all

1371
01:14:09,040 --> 01:14:11,880
Speaker 3: sorts of things. One of the things that's interesting though,

1372
01:14:12,200 --> 01:14:15,400
Speaker 3: is that let's say thirty years ago or even forty

1373
01:14:15,479 --> 01:14:17,240
Speaker 3: years ago, but thirty years ago, I think it's safe

1374
01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:20,960
Speaker 3: if you were watching the markets, you would probably really

1375
01:14:21,160 --> 01:14:24,000
Speaker 3: only be able to watch it by reading the newspaper

1376
01:14:24,040 --> 01:14:26,559
Speaker 3: once a day, so you'll only get the news kind

1377
01:14:26,560 --> 01:14:29,640
Speaker 3: of once. You know, you might get radio updates, but

1378
01:14:29,680 --> 01:14:31,559
Speaker 3: if you were invested in the spread of shares, you'd

1379
01:14:31,560 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 3: only be able to check their share price when they

1380
01:14:33,280 --> 01:14:36,759
Speaker 3: came in the newspaper. Now you're watching it in real

1381
01:14:36,840 --> 01:14:41,120
Speaker 3: time on your phone, And I just wonder if that's

1382
01:14:41,160 --> 01:14:43,479
Speaker 3: a big problem, because it makes you more anxious than

1383
01:14:43,479 --> 01:14:46,160
Speaker 3: you would be otherwise. In other words, a fall of

1384
01:14:46,200 --> 01:14:48,640
Speaker 3: two percent now feels far worse than a fall of

1385
01:14:48,680 --> 01:14:50,240
Speaker 3: two percent thirty years ago.

1386
01:14:52,120 --> 01:14:53,880
Speaker 11: It's absolutely right.

1387
01:14:54,200 --> 01:14:57,479
Speaker 15: They've actually done studies about looking at the investment returns

1388
01:14:57,479 --> 01:15:01,280
Speaker 15: of people who monitor their investments a minute by minute,

1389
01:15:01,360 --> 01:15:03,840
Speaker 15: day by day, week by week, month by month, year

1390
01:15:03,880 --> 01:15:05,920
Speaker 15: by year, and the people who only look at their

1391
01:15:05,960 --> 01:15:08,720
Speaker 15: investments once a year do way better than the people

1392
01:15:08,760 --> 01:15:12,479
Speaker 15: who look at their investments more frequently. And so, you know,

1393
01:15:12,479 --> 01:15:15,160
Speaker 15: knowing a share price and knowing how quickly share prices

1394
01:15:15,200 --> 01:15:18,240
Speaker 15: are moving might feel like you've got more information than

1395
01:15:18,240 --> 01:15:21,200
Speaker 15: someone else. All you've got is a lot more noise,

1396
01:15:21,320 --> 01:15:24,639
Speaker 15: And and you know, tracking share prices every single day

1397
01:15:24,880 --> 01:15:27,280
Speaker 15: doesn't help you with any kind of information. All it

1398
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:30,760
Speaker 15: does is raise your levels of anxiety. And so to me,

1399
01:15:31,479 --> 01:15:33,360
Speaker 15: you know, if I'm in a position like this, I

1400
01:15:33,360 --> 01:15:36,400
Speaker 15: would want to read books. I would want to understand

1401
01:15:36,400 --> 01:15:40,360
Speaker 15: that what happens to the world in big geopolitical changing times.

1402
01:15:40,400 --> 01:15:43,000
Speaker 15: You know, have a look at in history what's happened

1403
01:15:43,000 --> 01:15:47,120
Speaker 15: to markets and investments to understand how this movie might

1404
01:15:47,160 --> 01:15:49,960
Speaker 15: play out. But don't worry about what's going on. And

1405
01:15:50,000 --> 01:15:52,160
Speaker 15: social media is really bad for this because you get

1406
01:15:52,160 --> 01:15:55,400
Speaker 15: people who are really good at creating videos that scream

1407
01:15:55,400 --> 01:15:58,040
Speaker 15: at you to say panic or buy or something, and

1408
01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:00,600
Speaker 15: you know, and unfortunately they're good at media, they're not

1409
01:16:00,640 --> 01:16:02,800
Speaker 15: good at investing. That's why they're on the media side

1410
01:16:02,840 --> 01:16:06,080
Speaker 15: and not on the investing side. So I feel, you know,

1411
01:16:06,640 --> 01:16:09,479
Speaker 15: you know, read if you want to read books or

1412
01:16:09,720 --> 01:16:11,439
Speaker 15: just listen to the show, we'll we'll tell you what

1413
01:16:11,520 --> 01:16:11,800
Speaker 15: to do.

1414
01:16:13,240 --> 01:16:15,919
Speaker 3: Warre onn Ingram, thank you very much. Indeed, certified financial

1415
01:16:15,960 --> 01:16:19,800
Speaker 3: planner at Galileo Capital. One of those conversations. I think,

1416
01:16:19,800 --> 01:16:22,000
Speaker 3: if you've got someone in your life who you know

1417
01:16:22,120 --> 01:16:25,840
Speaker 3: is booked to social media around investing, maybe send this

1418
01:16:25,920 --> 01:16:28,560
Speaker 3: podcast to them.

1419
01:16:29,000 --> 01:16:31,519
Speaker 9: The Money Show Stevel Protest is brought to you by

1420
01:16:31,600 --> 01:16:35,719
Speaker 9: Abscess the ib Discover the latest trends shaping digital assets

1421
01:16:35,760 --> 01:16:40,120
Speaker 9: across Africa. Download the as Africa Digital Assets Insights twenty

1422
01:16:40,160 --> 01:16:40,840
Speaker 9: twenty five.

1423
01:16:43,280 --> 01:16:47,280
Speaker 3: Well, US markets down to height, the Dow Jones downpoint

1424
01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:50,080
Speaker 3: one two, the NAZEC downpoint one five s and P

1425
01:16:50,240 --> 01:16:53,280
Speaker 3: five hundred down point zero two. The main reason still

1426
01:16:53,400 --> 01:16:56,160
Speaker 3: from what I can see, concerns about AI with the

1427
01:16:56,200 --> 01:16:57,519
Speaker 3: Money Show. It's eight o'clock