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Speaker 1: Well, a massive day on markets, all driven by the

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Speaker 1: announcement last night from the Trump administration about the US

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Speaker 1: and Iran and that ceasefire that pushed goal, that pushed

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Speaker 1: oil from around one hundred and eleven dollars a barrel

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Speaker 1: yesterday to just over ninety dollars today, a massive jump,

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Speaker 1: and all sectors of the JS, the share price of

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Speaker 1: the all share ending up by around four percent. That's

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Speaker 1: been mirrored in international markets, although the jas's bounce was

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Speaker 1: so much bigger than most other indices around the world.

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Speaker 1: John Stopford's the head of multi asset Income at ninety

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Speaker 1: one John, Good evening, and thank you for your time

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Speaker 1: after what I'm sure has been a busy day. So

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Speaker 1: we've had several weeks of the US and Israel bombing Iran,

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Speaker 1: Israel's launched missiles at at Iran's launched missiles at Israel's,

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Speaker 1: and countries hosting US bases. Donald Trump claims he'll end

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Speaker 1: an entire civilization. Then we have the announcement of the ceasefire.

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Speaker 1: Markets jump so dramatically. Do you think the markets the

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Speaker 1: market exuberance is rational?

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Speaker 2: I think so. I mean, clearly trying to understand exactly

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Speaker 2: how Donald Trump operates and how he extricates himself from

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Speaker 2: what looks to have been a fairly strategic a strategic

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Speaker 2: error by the US. You know, that's pretty difficult, But

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Speaker 2: I think you know we as you say, yesterday the

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Speaker 2: market was facing down the possibility of a significant escalation,

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Speaker 2: and today that threat, at least temporarily looks to have

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Speaker 2: been removed, And certainly the language is sounding a lot

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Speaker 2: more constructive. So I think the market is trying to

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Speaker 2: trade probabilities and risks and tail events and is concluding

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Speaker 2: that the outlook now looks a lot rosier than it did,

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Speaker 2: you know, twelve twenty four hours ago.

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Speaker 1: I mean it seems, I mean, surely the two sides

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Speaker 1: are so far apart I can't see any real truth

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Speaker 1: between them. I mean, Iran will say the US attack

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Speaker 1: US during a negotiation. The US will say, we can't

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Speaker 1: let Iran have nuclear weapons, it's stry to destabilize the

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Speaker 1: whole region, etc. What's the best we can hope for

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Speaker 1: sort of an easy truce.

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Speaker 2: I think there is potential to negotiate a deal. I

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Speaker 2: think the fact that they have agreed a cease far

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Speaker 2: of some sort suggests that both sides are potentially looking

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Speaker 2: for an off ramp for Trump. The reasons I think

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Speaker 2: are fairly obvious. So you know, this war is exacting

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Speaker 2: a pretty heavy price on the global economy, and that

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Speaker 2: obviously impacts the US, and it impacts his popularity in

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Speaker 2: the popularity of the Republicans going into the midterm elections.

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Speaker 2: For Iran, I think it's about survival. So yes, they

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Speaker 2: could fight on and I think for them survival is

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Speaker 2: a victory. They can say, Okay, we put up with

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Speaker 2: what was thrown at us and came through it. The

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Speaker 2: regime is still there, so I think you can see

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Speaker 2: why both sides might want to negotiate. It's whether they

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Speaker 2: can the fact that they're talking, the fact that there

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Speaker 2: are intermediaries looking to broke as some sort of outcome

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Speaker 2: that all parties can broadly sign up to. And I

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Speaker 2: think the Americans will give some ground. I think they

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Speaker 2: want to get out of this. It's a mess that

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Speaker 2: they've created, and I'm not sure that there's an obvious

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Speaker 2: end point if they don't find an off ramp soon.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously the big variable is probably the oil

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Speaker 1: price that depends on negotiations over the Strait of Humus,

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Speaker 1: and I noticed that oil started doing a jet slightly

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Speaker 1: towards the afternoon. I don't know if maybe there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of how difficult the actual reality is going

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Speaker 1: to be still sinking in.

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Speaker 2: I think that's definitely true. I mean, it isn't easy. Clearly,

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Speaker 2: one of the other actors in this is Israel, and

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Speaker 2: they're still bombing Lebanon, and you know, the Iranians say

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Speaker 2: ceasefire was meant to incorporate them as well. Israel and

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Speaker 2: America are saying no, it isn't, No wasn't, and so

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Speaker 2: you know they are clearly there's clearly quite a lot

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Speaker 2: of issues to address, and this thing could all fall apart.

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Speaker 2: But I think there probably is enough willingness or desire

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Speaker 2: to know, save face achieve an outcome that they can

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Speaker 2: live with. For the Iranians, it will be I guess,

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Speaker 2: having ability to export crude and potentially have some economic

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Speaker 2: claim on the Straits of hor Moves, and for that

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Speaker 2: they might give up nuclear weapons. I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: being able to close the straightsful Moves has proven to

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Speaker 2: be at least as effective as a terrent as having

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Speaker 2: the threat of a nuclear weapon as far as I

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Speaker 2: can see, So yeah, I mean, I think I'm glass

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Speaker 2: half full at this point, but I wouldn't get too

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Speaker 2: carried away. And it's going to be noisy, and so,

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Speaker 2: you know, buying the market when it's gone up however

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Speaker 2: much today may not be the best starting but I

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Speaker 2: do think broadly we're in a slightly better place than

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Speaker 2: we were yesterday, and over the last few weeks. We're

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Speaker 2: probably not in as good a place as we were

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Speaker 2: before this all kicked off.

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Speaker 1: So, I mean, isn't that really the interesting thing? I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you look at this strategy mistakes, I suppose the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration has made some suggestions that, in fact, they

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Speaker 1: did not foresee that Iran would close off the Strait

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Speaker 1: of Humus, despite the fact that seemed such an obvious move.

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Speaker 1: Anyone who would have gained this out beforehand would know that.

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Speaker 1: The other risk is of more strategic mistakes by the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration just during the negotiation alone.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, allegedly there was

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Speaker 2: a nuclear deal on the table Iran, sorry, when Israel

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Speaker 2: and the US decided to bomb Iran, So who knows.

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Speaker 2: I mean, supposedly Trump plays five D chess and ours

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Speaker 2: mere mortals can't understand the strategic thinging behind this, but

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Speaker 2: it just seems like a complete disaster I think to

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Speaker 2: most people. And I think the sooner he can get

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Speaker 2: out of it and save face and presented as a victory,

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Speaker 2: the better. So I think he'll concede stuff. I think

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Speaker 2: he will give the Iranians, probably a reasonable deal, perhaps

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Speaker 2: in exchange for enriched uranium and perhaps in exchange for

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Speaker 2: you know, promising not to attack neighbors again. But they're

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Speaker 2: gonna want the irain is going to want stuff too,

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Speaker 2: so it's not easy. But I think we're probably on

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Speaker 2: the course out of this, but it's not going to

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Speaker 2: be a straight line.

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Speaker 1: There are other longer term questions about whether what's happened

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Speaker 1: over the last month change is part of the world. So,

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Speaker 1: for example, places like to buy there are other parts

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Speaker 1: of the world like to buy who've done that there

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Speaker 1: as well made themselves very attractive to people around the

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Speaker 1: world where aviation hubs, et cetera, business head officers, things

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Speaker 1: like that, Will they still be as attractive even if

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Speaker 1: a ceasefire, even if a proper agreement is signed in

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Speaker 1: two weeks time. I mean, Iran has from understand try

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Speaker 1: to launch missiles there authorities in Dubai have arrested residents

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Speaker 1: who've shown videos of that damage. This surely makes that

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Speaker 1: part of the world a lot less attractive for companies

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Speaker 1: who are looking at investing there.

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess people will probably try and factor in

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Speaker 2: the geopolitical risks more than they have done perhaps in

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Speaker 2: recent years. I guess it comes down to what kind

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Speaker 2: of deal is struck. If it is perceived to be

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Speaker 2: one that can last, then you know, I think people

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Speaker 2: will look at those economies again. They've got plenty of

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Speaker 2: positives about them, even if they have a fairly difficult neighbor.

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Speaker 2: I mean, bear in mind, obviously Iran didn't start this,

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Speaker 2: if you want to put it like that. So you know,

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Speaker 2: the firing started because other people attack them. And so

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Speaker 2: whether you know if other people promise not to attack

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Speaker 2: them again that things will settle down, we'd have to see.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot of damage that needs to

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Speaker 2: be repaired that there's a lot of cost involved, There's

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Speaker 2: a lot of lost business, so it's going to take

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Speaker 2: time for things to normalize. There is an economic cost

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Speaker 2: even if things go back to where they were for

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Speaker 2: golf countries and for the for the global economy, So

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Speaker 2: you know, I don't think we should downplay that, but

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Speaker 2: I do think there's a future for the golf if

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Speaker 2: a good deal is done with Iran and if you

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Speaker 2: know other people abied by it.

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Speaker 1: John Stopford really appreciate the time. Thank you. John Stopford's

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Speaker 1: head of multi asset income at ninety one