1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,520 Speaker 1: The latest truth social posting by US President Donald Trump reads, 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:10,720 Speaker 1: back again. I don't want that to happen, but it 4 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: will probably will. However, now that we have complete and 5 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: total regime change, where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, 6 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 1: maybe something revolutionary, wonderful can happen. Who knows. We will 7 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: find out tonight one of the most important moments in 8 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: the long and complex history of the world. Forty seven 9 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 1: years of extortion, corruption and death will finally end. God 10 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,520 Speaker 1: bless the great people of Iran. This comes after he 11 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: threatened yesterday that if an agreement peace agreement between the 12 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: US and Iran, which obviously will involve what Iran does 13 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: in the manufacturing of nuclear heads, is not reached by 14 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: a deadline which is nearly hours away, that he will 15 00:00:55,440 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: obliterate Iran within one night. We want to find out 16 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: whether they have their defense capability to do so. Dean 17 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: Wingraan is a defense analysts joined me on the line now, Dina, 18 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: very good afternoon and welcome to the. 19 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: Show, Hi Africa, Nice to be on again. 20 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: From what you know, can the US obliterate Iran in 21 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: one night of attacks. 22 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 2: Well, America is the pre eminent I think military power 23 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 2: on the planet at the moment, and certainly with the 24 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 2: support of Israel, it's capable of inflicting immense damage on Irun. 25 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 2: But whether you know, we take Trump's rhetoric and at 26 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 2: his word, I think he's probably being a little bit bombastic, 27 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:45,959 Speaker 2: but you know, you're going to still be taken seriously. 28 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 2: And although I don't think Iran will disappear off the map, 29 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 2: I think there will certainly if he carries through with 30 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 2: a threat, there certainly will be widespread damage. Not any 31 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: to military bases which are really damaged, but a lot 32 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 2: of the infrastructures supporting the military, as well as other 33 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 2: probably commercial infrastructure as well. 34 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: It appears the approach up until now, which has basically 35 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: been fought in the air, has not been as successful 36 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: as Donald Trump would of which right he has expressed 37 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: frustrations in his very many varied ways that this war 38 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: has not been won as yet. Did he run catch 39 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: both the US and Israel by surprise, do you think? 40 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 2: Well, Ever since the dawn of aircraft in the military, 41 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 2: particularly from World War One, you know, aerial warfare has 42 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 2: dominated the battles and certainly aerial dominance and supremacy makes 43 00:02:55,520 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 2: it easier for the ground forces to estet more permanent 44 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 2: change on the ground. But that's the imperative thing. You know. 45 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 2: Air dominance in itself does not change things on the ground. 46 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 2: It just makes it easier for ground forces to operate. 47 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: So I don't think it should come as a surprise 48 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: to anyone who's learned from history and or has even 49 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 2: read one or two books on the on the military. 50 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 2: But you know, it's also that we're also dealing with 51 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 2: a regime in Iran that supports suicide bombers, it kills 52 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 2: its own civilians. You are calling for freedom, it's currently 53 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: calling for the youths to make human chains around the 54 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 2: power stations. So this is not a regime that puts 55 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 2: their people first. It's it's more likely self preservation. And 56 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 2: with you with a regime like that, gentle persuasion was 57 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 2: never going to turn them over to whatever America wanted 58 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 2: out of this. 59 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, the US has been alienating its NATO alliance partners, 60 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 1: the UK, for example, taking a long time to agree 61 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: that the US can use its bass for it to 62 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,799 Speaker 1: obviously take off in order to go and attack Iran. 63 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: And in fact, Donald Trump has been mocking the UK 64 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: Prime Minister say Kiostama regarding that now the UK Prime 65 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 1: Minister under pressure to not allow the US to use 66 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: its bass as that Donald Trump is threatening, of course, 67 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: devastation of infrastructure. Can he do this just with the 68 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: help of Israel and not, at least from an infrastructure 69 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: point of view, help from his NATO alliances. 70 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 2: Well, well, before I get onto that, I think we 71 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 2: should also understand that NATA is more of its defensive alliance, 72 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 2: and it's from if one of its members is attacked 73 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 2: by an external party, then then they can call upon 74 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 2: the other NATO members to assist them. It's not an 75 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 2: offensive alliance. And although NATA has been used in the Balkans, 76 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,280 Speaker 2: I think it was in Bosnia to protect the Muslim 77 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 2: minorities there, But it's more of a you know, so 78 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 2: of you know, of a protective, defensive measure. So now 79 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 2: Trump has been alienating his NATO allies even before the 80 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 2: Iranian offensive, so you know, obviously he's got the you know, 81 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 2: the other NATA members have got their backs up now 82 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: and they don't want to be drawn into a never 83 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 2: ending conflict which they never had a And in starting. 84 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 2: But so America has a wide range of offensive options available. 85 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 2: Besides sending cruise missiles from its warships in the area 86 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 2: and submarines in the area, It's also got its bombers 87 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:23,919 Speaker 2: such as the B one, B two in even the 88 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 2: B fifty two that flies direct from the continental USA. 89 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 2: Now this is well over ten thousand kilometer trip that 90 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 2: can take off for sixty seven hours, and it requires 91 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 2: multiple refuelings and so on, so it is a very 92 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 2: sort of equipment intensive, labor intensive, expensive option. So there 93 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 2: would much rather prefer to use bases in Europe. And 94 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 2: we've already seen Spain sort of denying America access to 95 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 2: NATO bases for use of offensive operations against Iran. But 96 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 2: as you pointed out, Starman, the UK initially refused America 97 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 2: use of the bases in the UK, but have now 98 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 2: sort of relented since Iran has targeted UK bases in 99 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 2: Cyprus and so on. So the UK now can say, oh, 100 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 2: this is more defensive in Nasia, because you know, Iran 101 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 2: has attacked US first, but it would certainly help to 102 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 2: make use of bases in Europe. And then of course 103 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 2: we've got Israel, which will also assist with this, who 104 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 2: are flying continuous sorties one five hundred kilometers distant sorties 105 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 2: from Israel to Iran and back. So it's a very 106 00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 2: expensive undertaking in the form of munitions, manpower and the 107 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 2: support infrastructure to do this. 108 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: Let me ask this as a parting question, Dean. We 109 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 1: do know that Israel issued a warning on x to 110 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: citizens of Iran to stay away from the rail from 111 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 1: using railways because they were going to bomb some of 112 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: its infrastructure, justifying this as saying that this is what 113 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: the Revolutionary Guard is using as a way of transporting 114 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: obviously things. When does all of this become a war crime? 115 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: Because under international humanitarian law, my understanding is that if 116 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: the target becomes civilian infrastructure or causes disproportion harm to civilians, 117 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 1: that's when it switches to potential war crimes. 118 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a very tricky subject, and I think we 119 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 2: could spend a week discussing it among various you know, 120 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: specialist area and still not come to a proper solution 121 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 2: or idea of exactly what a war crime is. But 122 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 2: as you say, it must be proportional. But civilian infrastructure 123 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 2: can be a legitimate target if it is assisting the military, 124 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 2: such as bridges, you know, because they're transporting equipment via bridges, 125 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 2: via the railway lines sort of. You can see the 126 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 2: Ukrainians are doing it in Russia as well, where they're 127 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 2: targeting petrochemical and other infrastructure that is nominally civilian but 128 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 2: is also used to support the war effort. So, as 129 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 2: you mentioned, proportionality is quite an important word when it 130 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 2: comes to this, and you've seen that Israel is actually 131 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 2: warning the civilians to stay away from certain areas which 132 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 2: you've never seen in other worlds, and in fact today 133 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,439 Speaker 2: as well, they dropped I think it was about seven 134 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 2: bridges as well as part of this incremental campaign to 135 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 2: contain the Iranian military. But it is a difficult thing. 136 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 2: Trump is sort of shouting beforehand that he's going to 137 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 2: do certain things that on the face of it could 138 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 2: be styled as a war crime. But until it's actually done, 139 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 2: you know that it will be up to the various 140 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,319 Speaker 2: legal minds to determine. 141 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: All right, Dean, thank you very much. Indeed, Dean Wingren 142 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: is a defense analyst. I should note that President Sauroma 143 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: Posa has in the meantime called for any immediate cease 144 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: fire and restraint amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, 145 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: warning that further hostilities risk deepening instability in the Middle East. 146 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: This comes after Tehran refused to accept a ceasefire deal 147 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 1: on the eve of a deadline set by the United 148 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: States President Donald Trump to agree to his demands. The 149 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: President a Ramapasa that is further stressing that all roads 150 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: should lead to a negotiated settlement.