1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,320 Speaker 1: Let's turn off focus to Joeburg for a second and 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 1: the politics in the run up to the local government elections. 3 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: Johannesburg meyoral candidate for the Democratic Alliance Helen Zilla, saying 4 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: that her main political competitors in the city are the 5 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: Patriotic Alliances Kenny Gunene and Action Essay leader Herman Mashaba. 6 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 1: We have no clue who the mayoral candidate will be 7 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: yet for the African National Congress, and of course they 8 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: are internal divisions within the city of Joeburg and its 9 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 1: leadership that may influence who that person might be. Joining 10 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: me via zoom Is Elections analyst Wayne Sussman. Wayne, A 11 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 1: very good afternoon, welcome to the show. 12 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: Very nice to be speaking to aga in Africa. I 13 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: hope you will I am. 14 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 1: Indeed, do you have a favorite memory of your favorite 15 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: butt course when you and your family embarked on long 16 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 1: road trips across South Africa? 17 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 2: You know, I have a memory of my late father 18 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 2: enjoying horrible coffee. This was before the we knew what 19 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 2: a barista was and I become a I love my 20 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 2: coffee and I just remember him enjoying this horrible coffee 21 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 2: while we'd stop on those concrete stools under a place 22 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 2: which might or might not have a tree in the karu. 23 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 2: That's what I have a fond memory of, even though 24 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 2: the coffee was really not of a high caliber. 25 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: I'm so happy those memories are fund for you. The 26 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: Patriotic Alliances a Deputy President and make a member for 27 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: Roads and Transporting the City of Joburg. Ken Kuena accusing 28 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 1: Helen Zilla of misinforming the public by posting a video 29 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: of herself swimming in a pothole in the north of Johannesburg. Zilla, 30 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: of course raising eyebrows earlier in the week when she 31 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: was seen in her swimming gear doing the backstroke in 32 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: water she had gathered in a pothole. The mayoral race 33 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: in Joeburg is really becoming serious, isn't it correct? 34 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 2: Johannesburg, even though I know you called him from but 35 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 2: Johannesburg is the largest metropolitan area in South Africa. There 36 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 2: is a massive budget. This is like running a huge 37 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: global company. This is a high stakes metropolitan area. Two 38 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 2: hundred and seventy seats, the magical number being one hundred 39 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 2: and thirty six and it's been under coalition government since 40 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 2: twenty sixteen. And is very likely going to continue like that. 41 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 2: And this is why there has been so much attention 42 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 2: on this race since Helen Zillah announced her candidacy, and 43 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 2: of course Kenny Kunene who just spoke about he was 44 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 2: the first major candidate to announce his candidacy. And we 45 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 2: still to see the ANC and the eff and the 46 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 2: contoist is where is going to field? We know Herman 47 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 2: Rasharb is standing again for action essay. I think even 48 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 2: in Cape Town and in other parts of the country, 49 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 2: they're going to be tired of all the discussion about 50 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:54,959 Speaker 2: the Johannesburg mayor race this year. 51 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 1: If an election was to be held tomorrow, and we 52 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: are mindful that not all political parties have named the 53 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: mayoral candidates, we certainly don't know who the ANC candidate 54 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 1: will be, as you said, MKP and others must still 55 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: name the candidates. But if if an election was to 56 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: be held tomorrow, who would be the likely front runner? 57 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 1: Do you think? 58 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 2: Yeah? I think Helen Zilla is likely to lead the 59 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 2: DA to the best of a performance in Johannesburg. The 60 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 2: video you spoke of at the outset with swimming in 61 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 2: that pottle, I just think there's a lot of momentum 62 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: behind a campaign. However, as you know, it's one thing 63 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 2: being the leading party, it's another thing being able to 64 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: form a coalition of one hundred and thirty six seats, 65 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 2: because that's a fifty percent plus one, and that is 66 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 2: going to be Helen Zilla's challenge. And therefore, even though 67 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 2: the ANC have not announced its mayoral candidate, I think 68 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 2: the next most likely candidate for mayor is Herman Mashaba. 69 00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 2: We know that in Twane actually essays working with a 70 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 2: n C right now. We know that they did work 71 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 2: together in Johannesburg. It didn't end well. But Mashaba is 72 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 2: another candidate who's well known. He's been a mayor before. 73 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 2: He's a candidate of national profile, and even though I 74 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 2: don't think he'll be certain, I think the ANC will 75 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 2: beat him comfortably for second place. He might be a 76 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 2: king maker of sorts and he's someone I wouldn't rule out. 77 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 2: But let's also again and see who the ANC's candidate 78 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 2: is going to be. Currently, the mayor's Dara Morrero, but 79 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 2: at the recent local ANC elections, his rival Uso Masuka 80 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 2: won the Johannesburg leadership, so her name might also feature. 81 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: We are seeing attention between the ANC and the Democratic 82 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: Alliance in Kau Teng. In fact, yesterday Panazala Sofi and 83 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 1: naming an EFF candidate as the MECO member for effectively 84 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:59,679 Speaker 1: a provincial treasury, which has raised some concerns of course 85 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 1: from people in Kao Teng. So the likelihood of an 86 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: ANC Democratic Alliance coalition in the city of Joeburg is 87 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: not going to be realized. So it will be a 88 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 1: case of does Hem and Mashaba going to bed with 89 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: Helen Zilla or does Hem and Mashaba going to bed 90 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: with the ANC most likely? Right correct? 91 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 2: I think that while Mashaba might not do as well 92 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 2: as he did in twenty twenty one, and he did 93 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 2: very well with the Formation of Action essay, he's still 94 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 2: he has done well in by elections in township areas 95 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 2: in Harteng in the last couple of months. He's got 96 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 2: some momentum. So even if he doesn't do as well, 97 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 2: I think it'll have a significant number of seats to 98 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 2: determine who'll be the mayor. And it's very interesting that 99 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 2: you refer to the EFF joining Premier Panyaza Lasufi's cabinet 100 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 2: yesterday with a very important position of NEC for finance. 101 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 2: So that's a very key position. And now we are 102 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 2: seeing I think this is there's a lot of internal 103 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 2: factionism within the ANC fighting do they work with parties 104 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 2: like the EFF from Them CONTO with CIZRAE, or do 105 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,919 Speaker 2: they work with parties like the Democratic Alliance and the IFP. 106 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 2: This is what played out yesterday. And obviously politics is 107 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 2: also about numbers. I mean planiazos if you rarely needed 108 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 2: the EFF to pass his budget, but the EFF walking 109 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 2: away with that key position of empty for finance. So 110 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:32,040 Speaker 2: although that's at a provincial level, these factors certain trickle 111 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 2: down to local government, particularly in the local government. 112 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: Election, and I suppose it really shows the stout difference 113 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: between A and C and KU Teng and A and C. Nationally. 114 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: President Sorama Possa managed to successfully argue for all of 115 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: the critical roles, including the Ministry of Finance, to be 116 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: retained by the ANC in their government of National Unity 117 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: as they call it. And we all agree that number 118 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: of cabinet positions helped by there and see disproportionate to 119 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: the percentage of the electoral shared that they enjoyed. After 120 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: the May twenty twenty four elections, you would imagine that 121 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 1: Panaz Lusfi would want to protect such a key office 122 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: that of MEC for Finance. 123 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 2: Correct, But I think the EFF in a way cornered 124 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:24,679 Speaker 2: him and said, look, you cannot lead a provincial government 125 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 2: if you can't pass a budget. We will help you 126 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 2: pass the budget, but this is what we expect in return. 127 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 2: We I mean, to be honest, the EFF should be. 128 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 2: They were an eleven percent of the vote that the 129 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 2: second largest party in the hut End coalition. They entitled 130 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 2: to more than one MEC position. But I think their 131 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 2: red line was you give us THATMEC position for finance 132 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 2: or we do not support your budget. And I think 133 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 2: this is a good victory for the EFF. It keeps 134 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 2: them as part of the conversation. Remember the EFF went 135 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 2: backward slightly in the last election in twenty twenty four 136 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 2: and right, no, I mean I'm currently heating. There is 137 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 2: a lot of conversation about the re emergence of the EFF. 138 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 2: Let's see whether they can use this opportunity on the 139 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 2: road to the twenty twenty six local government. 140 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: All right, Wayne, we'll live it there, thank you very much. 141 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll have many more conversation of this nature 142 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: as we build up to the local government elections, most 143 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: likely in November. Wayne Sussman election analyst. Happy to take 144 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: your reflections on that conversation.