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Speaker 1: Well, still nothing that I can see on the Department

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Speaker 1: of Mineral Petroleum Resources WhatsApp group, the media WhatsApp group,

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Speaker 1: which I'm expecting will get a sense of what fuel

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Speaker 1: prices are going to do. But I think you know

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Speaker 1: by now we're expecting the biggest monthly increase in fuel

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Speaker 1: prices in recent history. Please to tell you that about

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Speaker 1: funnyiture for Laro, the CEO of the Fuel Industry Association

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Speaker 1: of South Africa's in the studio sitting opposite me. Now

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Speaker 1: about funny. Good evening. I really do appreciate you coming in.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much. I know you'll have a very

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Speaker 1: well informed guest. I don't know if you'll share it

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Speaker 1: with me. What are you expecting to happen tomorrow night.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm expecting the normal fuel price adjustment in the

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Speaker 2: form of basic fuel price. I'm in adjustment on the

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Speaker 2: basis of the under recovery that everyone has been talking about.

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Speaker 2: I'm also expecting to see the adjustment to the Magisterra

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Speaker 2: district zones, which are predominantly informed by the tariff increase

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Speaker 2: on the transmit appliance. And obviously there's a text the

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Speaker 2: levies that has been announced by the Minister of Finance.

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Speaker 2: I mean in February, that's what I'm expecting. I'm basically

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Speaker 2: expecting a normal fuel price adjustment, which will typically happen

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Speaker 2: every April.

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Speaker 1: But I mean in terms of actual numbers. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there are various variables, and we don't know all of those.

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Speaker 1: We know most of them. I suppose five rand a

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Speaker 1: leader for petrol. Does that sound about right to you?

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Speaker 2: Maybe on the upper limit. I mean I just saw

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Speaker 2: the numbers I mean off adjustment in LESU too earlier today.

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Speaker 2: I think the petrol has been adjusted by more than

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Speaker 2: six rand, diesel by like thirteen red. So I'm expecting

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Speaker 2: at least for South Africa something like six rand. If

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Speaker 2: we add everything else BFP levies and the Magisterra district

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Speaker 2: zones adjustment, and on the diesel, I'm expecting anything around

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Speaker 2: main tendrand patrol, sorry, paraffin probably leven ruand LPG for

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Speaker 2: a friend pick loogram.

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Speaker 1: I mean ten round for diesel. That's huge. I mean

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Speaker 1: that's a massive that's a massive increase.

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Speaker 2: We have never seen anything like that. It's quite scary

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Speaker 2: if you have to think about it. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: always think about people who like me and buy products

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Speaker 2: in bulk. So if you are a mine in do

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Speaker 2: you consume let's say, three hundred thousand liters a month,

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Speaker 2: suddenly must my apply that by ten? I mean that's

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Speaker 2: quite a significant I mean a chunk of money.

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Speaker 1: I would imagine there's going to be huge pressure on

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Speaker 1: filling stations right now. I'm sure people are queuing that

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Speaker 1: were already this morning. Have you been able to make

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Speaker 1: sure there's enough supply in the country.

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Speaker 2: The supply of for products in the country is stable.

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Speaker 2: We've got sufficient stock levels. I know people have been

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Speaker 2: reporting about dry sizes, particularly on diesel. Actually I took

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Speaker 2: a chance this morning, so I was listening to Clement

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Speaker 2: while I was driving. I happened to be in the

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Speaker 2: four weaste area near MONTICASINEW. I decided to get into

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Speaker 2: one of the serving stations to see I drive a

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Speaker 2: diesel car, and then I went in. They never asked

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Speaker 2: me like if I want the men to full time

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Speaker 2: or not. They just like say, okay, come go thisel.

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Speaker 2: So yes, there are reports of sites that are running

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Speaker 2: dry because of panic buying, and I expect that number

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Speaker 2: to increase something quite significantly, to double. Currently the number

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Speaker 2: is still less than two hundred sides that I dry

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Speaker 2: on diesel, but that number keeps on changing. So that

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Speaker 2: is the number probably that was reported this morning. So tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: by this time, I'm sure it's going to be cious

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Speaker 2: out there, so everybody will want to beat me this

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Speaker 2: massive price adjustment. But I anticipate that we're going to

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Speaker 2: have to recover come the first and second of April

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Speaker 2: to catch up on those sides that will putent you.

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Speaker 2: They have me drive, I mean products.

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Speaker 1: Government has said in the past they're not worried about

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Speaker 1: fuel shortages. They talk about us getting supply from Nigeria.

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Speaker 1: We also, of course have Sasol, which is about about

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Speaker 1: a third called thirty percent of our fuel needs. No

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Speaker 1: one knows how long this conflict is going to go

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Speaker 1: on for or more bluntly, how long the straight up

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Speaker 1: mus will be closed over the longer term. Are you

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Speaker 1: worried about a problem a supply issue?

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Speaker 2: So, Steven, if you think about it, when this wasted,

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Speaker 2: we thought it's going to be at least maximum two weeks,

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Speaker 2: and it's now a month, and I mean the price

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Speaker 2: of oil is not coming down, is still above one

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Speaker 2: hundred a mental aspect, and depending on what happens next.

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Speaker 2: So if the conflict I mean escalate, we don't know

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Speaker 2: what does that mean for us, but at least based

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Speaker 2: on what happened in the past four weeks, if we

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Speaker 2: look at that, because the disruption have been minimal in

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Speaker 2: terms of the imports that are coming our way. So

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Speaker 2: if it continues on that level, we're fine. I mean

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Speaker 2: we should be okay because we are receiving imports of

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Speaker 2: both I mean crude oil and products and just spaar

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Speaker 2: in mind that I mean the supply sources for crude

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Speaker 2: oil has changed significantly in the past ten years. We

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Speaker 2: are more heavily dependent in the continent now Nigeria, I'm

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Speaker 2: gold and Ghana. They are very key in terms of

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Speaker 2: supply of crude oil. But products that's where there's a

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Speaker 2: volatility there because you're not going to be the only

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Speaker 2: country that's looking for alternative and supply sources. So but

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Speaker 2: we are still at this point in time, I mean

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Speaker 2: being able to import products. I mean, if we just

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Speaker 2: look at what's happening in other Lackman countries, I mean

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Speaker 2: they are like significant measures now where people are products.

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Speaker 2: We are not.

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Speaker 1: There s a country when the fuel price jumps by

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Speaker 1: this much is there going to be a longer term

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Speaker 1: impact on your industry because anyone who had even been

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Speaker 1: thinking of making alternative plans. I mean, at least one

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Speaker 1: of our major supermarkets supplies most of its stores through

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Speaker 1: an electrically driven fleet. Right, they're getting electricity I presumed

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Speaker 1: from solar installations, and I imagine some from ESCAM. Surely

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Speaker 1: anyone else making you know, considering how considering the future

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Speaker 1: after this is going to do the same thing. Is

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Speaker 1: this going to be one of those moments maybe we

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Speaker 1: look back where the fuel industry changed.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so look, this is going to, like I mean,

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Speaker 2: give us opportunity to put things into perspectives. One thing

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Speaker 2: that you need to remember, if especially you are considering

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Speaker 2: buying a car, in new vehicle, you'll start to make

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Speaker 2: a ceris comparison between the alternative I mean like sort

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Speaker 2: of technology. You look at the hybrid, you look at

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Speaker 2: their pure like I'm in ev and they compared to

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Speaker 2: the ice engine to see, like I mean, like in

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Speaker 2: the long term, what are their savings. But the other

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Speaker 2: thing that is like evident is that I mean the

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Speaker 2: fossil fuels of petrol and diesel still they've got a

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Speaker 2: very significant role to play in the global economy. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if you look at what is happening in Europe in particular,

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Speaker 2: where they've really made progress in terms of like new

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Speaker 2: vehicle technology, but still they are jumping up and down

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Speaker 2: because of this crisis. So yes, it's going to give

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Speaker 2: us something like some options in terms of seriously considering

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Speaker 2: I mean like alternatives in terms of what we're seeing now.

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Speaker 1: There is supposed to be a new task team. The

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Speaker 1: President sort of refer to this something you were speaking

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Speaker 1: at NANC conference yesterday. I members of the Department of Finance, Energy,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. Have they been in touch with you at all?

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Speaker 2: Well, I suppose those are government specific issues that have

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Speaker 2: nothing to do with us as private I mean players.

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Speaker 2: So we just read about it like I mean, just

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Speaker 2: like members of the public, we also like wait to

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Speaker 2: hear what's their outcome. So we have got no interest

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Speaker 2: nor desire to be part of those discussions because I

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Speaker 2: will presume are very difficult conversations. A.

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Speaker 1: Fanny Treflau, I really do appreciate you coming in. Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. Indeed, the CEO of the Fuel Industry

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Speaker 1: Association of South Africa