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Speaker 1: I'm reading a lot about the aviation industry and what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen to the Gulf hubs which have been

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Speaker 1: such an important part of global aviation. So many carriers

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Speaker 1: routing through Doha and Dubai and places like that, and

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Speaker 1: there are even some fairly doom scrolling type predictions about

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Speaker 1: it's going to change the direction of global air travel

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Speaker 1: for decades, that they're never going to regain the prominence

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Speaker 1: that they have held for the last couple of decades,

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Speaker 1: as so many airlines route through there wherever they're going

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Speaker 1: to in the rest of the world. And there's no

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Speaker 1: doubt that this crisis is good for some airlines because

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Speaker 1: they are filling up. Kenya air for example, has seen

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Speaker 1: a Ethiopian air is doing very well. Targ the Angolan

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Speaker 1: Airline is doing extremely well as people book on those

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Speaker 1: because they are not routed through Dubai or Doha. But

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Speaker 1: good news for Cape Town International Airport, lighted by some

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Speaker 1: research from Andrew Thompson of News twenty four that I

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Speaker 1: don't know whether steel is the right verb, Andrew, good afternoon,

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Speaker 1: but a lot of international flights direct ones landing choosing

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Speaker 1: to land in Cape Town and bypassing Johannesburg.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think steel is a close enough word.

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Speaker 2: They would probably choose lobby or campaigning to get to

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Speaker 2: get those lights.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: But the sort of the widespread analysis that I did

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Speaker 2: this week into access figures that they published freely, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I revealed that it does seem that Kate's on international

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Speaker 2: is kind of the new dialing of at least international

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Speaker 2: foreign travelers from a leisure aspect.

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Speaker 1: And does I mean the numbers are, as you point

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Speaker 1: out in your article, even though Cape Town is taking

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Speaker 1: some of Johannesburg's lunch, which Johannesburg still has the larger

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Speaker 1: part of the meal by some distance.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So obviously Joeberg is still the economic hub and

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of legacy play there which has kept

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Speaker 2: it with the lion's share of the of the the traffic.

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Speaker 2: But the numbers are striking it. Kton went from three

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Speaker 2: million to eight million passengers over the period that I analyzed.

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Speaker 2: That goes back to about twenty twelve, whereas joe Berg

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Speaker 2: peaked at nine point two million in twenty seventeen, and

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Speaker 2: it actually hasn't really recovered. So I think if you

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Speaker 2: look at the grass that I that I put together

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Speaker 2: as well for the article. You'll see that the index

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Speaker 2: number of people moving to Kton Airport's sword, whereas Katon

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Speaker 2: has remained pretty stagnant and actually is still somewhat below

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Speaker 2: the COVID nineteen numbers and the highest peak of all times.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think it's I think there's a there's

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Speaker 2: a clear trend there that I tried to forecast.

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Speaker 1: And that it certainly fits in with what a lot

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Speaker 1: of the people that I know in the travel and

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Speaker 1: tourism industry tell me, which is that the pattern of

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Speaker 1: people visiting South Africa from overseas is changing. That they're

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Speaker 1: they're the there's not the wide range of destinations that

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Speaker 1: are traveled to which you could reach from Johannesburg as

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Speaker 1: well as from Pretoria. But people are now flying into

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Speaker 1: Cape Town and then either up to the Kruger and

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Speaker 1: the private reserves they're the National Game Reserve itself, or

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Speaker 1: they're flying up to Botswana into Namibia. So they're doing

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Speaker 1: Cape Town, perhaps a little bit of the coast up

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Speaker 1: towards George and Nisner and then they are flying to

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Speaker 1: nature reserve. So there's no reason to fly into Johannesburg,

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Speaker 1: because yes, you can get to the game reserves from Johannesburg,

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Speaker 1: but you don't want to spend time in Johannesburg. You

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Speaker 1: do want to spend time in Cape Town. And with

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Speaker 1: more airlines offering direct flights to Cape to On, that's

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Speaker 1: what people are doing.

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Speaker 2: Exactly. So I mean you can askly directed kids on

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Speaker 2: from London, Paris, Amsterdam or Frankfurt. You know, several kind

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Speaker 2: of leading tourism destinations direct to Caton. And I think

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Speaker 2: that is the sort of considered actions of west Grow

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Speaker 2: and its air access program, is to get those people

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Speaker 2: in here. And I think what's then happened is that

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Speaker 2: the other airlines have thought there's an opportunity now to

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Speaker 2: get people from Cape Toon to a little bit further afield,

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Speaker 2: and let's get them up to Botswana or Namibia or

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Speaker 2: even I fly quite often and I know you have

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Speaker 2: recently result to hooks Break and those are really easy flights.

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Speaker 2: So there was a time when even as a Cape Tonian,

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Speaker 2: you would need to bypass through joe Burg if you're

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Speaker 2: going long haul or even domestically to Kruger or somewhere

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Speaker 2: in that area. Now there are ample flights that actually

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Speaker 2: allow you to skirt that, and I think maybe to

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Speaker 2: hangover from COVID or the of a recent shift, but

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Speaker 2: I think people are increasingly harried. They don't have time

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Speaker 2: to spend another three four hours in an airport, and

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Speaker 2: if they can afford the direct flights, either direct to

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Speaker 2: Cape Town or from US direct doctor hood Spray, those

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Speaker 2: three or four hours that it saves us are often

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Speaker 2: worth the premium. And I think it just speaks to

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Speaker 2: a shift in how people are traveling generally, that if

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Speaker 2: you can afford to go direct, you are, and if

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Speaker 2: you can't, you'll suck it up, but you'll still look

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Speaker 2: for the most convenient roots as opposed to settle. And

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Speaker 2: I know you spoke us about the Haven Spoke model

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Speaker 2: of the Middle Eastern airlines. You know, I've read quite

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Speaker 2: a lot in recent days that that might also be

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Speaker 2: a little bit dated, because people actually just want to

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Speaker 2: get to their destinations and they don't want to spend

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Speaker 2: multiple hours sitting on an airport's terminal chair.

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Speaker 1: Andrew Thompson a travel journalist and he also does a

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Speaker 1: lot of important debunking work at News twenty four And

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Speaker 1: I was on an Airlink flight from Cape Town to

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Speaker 1: Vic Falls on Friday, and then an airlingk flight from

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Speaker 1: Vic Falls back to Cape Town on Monday. And it's

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Speaker 1: an Embreyer so it's not a huge jet, but both

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Speaker 1: legs were full and wandering up and down and listening

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Speaker 1: to people talking. The vast majority of accents I heard

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Speaker 1: were American and other foreign accents. A couple of Australians,

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Speaker 1: a few UK but mostly Americans. So they're flying in

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Speaker 1: to Cape Town. They loving their time here. They're flying

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Speaker 1: up to Vic Falls, they take a day trip into Choby.

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Speaker 1: They get back to Vic Falls, fly back down to

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Speaker 1: Cape Town, maybe do a trip to Plettenberg Bay or

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Speaker 1: Nis and a George somewhere along there, and get on

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Speaker 1: a plane home