WEBVTT - GNU- where are we now?

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<v Speaker 1>Joined the conversation conversation you with Cape Talk. It's tenminous

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<v Speaker 1>to ten o'clock. Doctor Dell McKinley, political analyst, joins us.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to find out how the gn you is

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<v Speaker 1>holding up over the next couple of minutes. Welcome to you,

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<v Speaker 1>doctor McKinley.

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<v Speaker 2>Great have you, Thanks Clarence, and thanks to your listeners.

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<v Speaker 2>Always a pleasure.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's just understand, is it a government of National Unity

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<v Speaker 1>or is it a grand coalition?

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<v Speaker 2>It's a coalition government. I think we've been playing with semantics.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean the Government of National Unity tag was given

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<v Speaker 2>by the A and C because it wanted to make

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<v Speaker 2>it more than it was. But yeah, it's a coalition arrangement,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's a very fractious coalition arrangement. So I think

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<v Speaker 2>still as South African's as I said and others, we

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<v Speaker 2>haven't quite gotten used to that terminology and we haven't

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<v Speaker 2>quite gotten used to the politics it goes with such

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<v Speaker 2>a coalition. So we tend to respond to every little hiccup,

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<v Speaker 2>for every little bump in the road and thinking it's

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<v Speaker 2>going to end, when in fact, in some ways that's

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<v Speaker 2>a natural progression of this kind of coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>Then our permutations are limits it then, are they not?

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<v Speaker 1>It could either be a grand coalition or a minority coalition.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, listen, I mean right now we have a grant

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<v Speaker 2>it's majority. If you take the DA in the A

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<v Speaker 2>and C they've got over seventy percent. Yes, So you've

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<v Speaker 2>got other two other options that the ANC can take.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is what they're obviously on the table at

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<v Speaker 2>the moment in their NEC discussions. Is they could go

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<v Speaker 2>with a sort of what sort of a transactional relationship

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<v Speaker 2>you could call it, with the EFF, where essentially the

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<v Speaker 2>EFF comes on board on particular kinds of things and

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<v Speaker 2>helps them pass legislation, but it's not a formal coalition.

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<v Speaker 2>They could enter into a minority coalition, which of course

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<v Speaker 2>is just to run it and then try to get

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<v Speaker 2>as many people on their side for particular pieces of legislation.

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<v Speaker 2>Or they could call new elections, So we have three

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<v Speaker 2>or four different scenarios, or obviously continue as the press

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<v Speaker 2>and arrangement is.

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<v Speaker 1>We've seen some pretty significant fractions. I have some really

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<v Speaker 1>deep divisions, but we can also say we've seen some

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<v Speaker 1>resilience in the that they've been togeven.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, listen, I think and the reason. You can call

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<v Speaker 2>it resilience, but I think it's practicality basically, if you

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<v Speaker 2>look at the scenario besides all you know, if you

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<v Speaker 2>take away all the noise and a lot of the

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<v Speaker 2>posturing and sort of performances in Parliament, the basic bottom

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<v Speaker 2>line is the ANC and the DA need each other

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<v Speaker 2>and one without the other right now. The other options

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<v Speaker 2>are probably worse than the ones they've got right now.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think the dominant factions within each of the

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<v Speaker 2>parties and there are differences obviously, I think they understand

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<v Speaker 2>this and realize that. That's why when you have all this,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, are we going to break it up? Is

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<v Speaker 2>it going to last till next week? You'll see them

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<v Speaker 2>stepping back and they'll come with some other kind of plan.

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<v Speaker 2>How far that can go along given they have to

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<v Speaker 2>hold off the other factions which want to break or

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<v Speaker 2>who which want a different kind of outcome. That I

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<v Speaker 2>think is where we pay more attention is to internal

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<v Speaker 2>party politics.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so then we're dealing with vested interest then, and

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<v Speaker 1>how are they going to play out in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>relationships within this grand coalition? So we know the A

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<v Speaker 1>ANDC wants to hold onto power. It's not going to

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<v Speaker 1>give it up at all. It is also the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>party within this coalition, the DA. The DA is smelling power,

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<v Speaker 1>familiarizing itself with power. Do you think it's fortunes would

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<v Speaker 1>be better realized outside of the Grand Coalition that inside.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I don't on a tactical basis. You could argue

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<v Speaker 2>in some ways, on a strategic longer term it might.

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<v Speaker 2>But in the short term, when we have local government

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<v Speaker 2>elections coming up next year, I don't think it would

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<v Speaker 2>serve the DA very well. If they were to pull

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<v Speaker 2>out right now, I think they would be seen as spoilers.

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<v Speaker 2>I think many of those that sort of sit on

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<v Speaker 2>the fence right now and would be thinking of possibly

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<v Speaker 2>voting for the DA. Let's say in my home province

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<v Speaker 2>Koteng and Joe, where Helen Zilla wants to become the mayor.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, these kinds of things that would sort of

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<v Speaker 2>royal the terrain a bit. And I think right now,

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<v Speaker 2>if the DA can be seen as a responsible sort

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<v Speaker 2>of you know, okay, yes, we're gritting our teeth. We

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<v Speaker 2>don't like these kinds of things, but we're doing it

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<v Speaker 2>in the interests of the country, so forth and so on,

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<v Speaker 2>and be the responsible one and not be seen to

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<v Speaker 2>be always just complaining and always sort of throwing their

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<v Speaker 2>toys out of the cot when things don't go their way.

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<v Speaker 2>Then I think that many other voters would then pay

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<v Speaker 2>attention to what they're the other side of what they're

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<v Speaker 2>saying they do, which is governance, which is delivery, which

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<v Speaker 2>is the things that they want people to pay attention to.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think tactically would make sense for the DA

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<v Speaker 2>to remain.

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<v Speaker 1>Others would argue that they perceive their fortunes, yeah, could

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<v Speaker 1>be better realized out aside with unencumbent commentary on government.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm inclined to believe that too. But let's go to

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<v Speaker 1>the National dialogue seven hundred million National dialogue mooted by

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<v Speaker 1>the ANC, objected to by the Democratic Alliance. Is this

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<v Speaker 1>a make or break disagreement.

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<v Speaker 2>No, not at all. The national dialogues or sort of

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<v Speaker 2>side shows. I mean, we've had several national dialogues in

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<v Speaker 2>the last twenty to thirty years. None of them have

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<v Speaker 2>really produced much of anything. They produced very big reports

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<v Speaker 2>and lots of big bills, but in terms of action,

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<v Speaker 2>not a great deal. I mean, look, it is an

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<v Speaker 2>important space for people to be heard and I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think the DA's sort of absence is going to help

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<v Speaker 2>them a great deal. I mean, what does it achieve

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<v Speaker 2>really if you step outside the room on this one,

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<v Speaker 2>Because the national dialogues are going to involve a range

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<v Speaker 2>of different voices, so might as well you might be

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<v Speaker 2>heard as well. But I don't think politically it's that central.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think it's a make or break thing. I

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<v Speaker 2>think where the real issues are going to come is

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<v Speaker 2>in departmental budget voting. So if you notice up coming

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<v Speaker 2>up in the next few weeks, a lot of the

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<v Speaker 2>budgets are going to be put forward in Parliament and

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<v Speaker 2>the DA is basic he said, no, we're not going

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<v Speaker 2>to vote for budgets where the ministers are compromised or

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<v Speaker 2>under allegations of corruption. I think this could be a

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<v Speaker 2>much more politically fractious kind of situation than the National Dialogue.

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<v Speaker 1>A very compelling argument has been made that we don't

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<v Speaker 1>need a national Dialogue, we need the what's it? The Plan?

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<v Speaker 1>The Development Plan the NDP to be implemented because proactively

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<v Speaker 1>it talks to solutions.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I think most people would say the National Dialogue

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<v Speaker 2>is more of a top shop.

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<v Speaker 1>It is.

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<v Speaker 2>It doesn't mean that talking is a bad thing. It

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't mean the dialogue is a bad thing. Sometimes it's

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<v Speaker 2>good to have those spaces. I think the feist tag

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<v Speaker 2>obviously makes us squeeze because of what's going on, But

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<v Speaker 2>in the context of plans, yes, I think everybody would

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<v Speaker 2>be in agreement that where we are lacking, not just

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of past administrations, but this G and u

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<v Speaker 2>is action is putting things on the ground. There have

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<v Speaker 2>been some elements of a progress, you know, the electricity situation, others,

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<v Speaker 2>but sliding back. And then I go back to the

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<v Speaker 2>local government and we're coming up next year. Local governments

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<v Speaker 2>where it's at. It's where people feel it the most

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<v Speaker 2>in communities, at locals.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's the party in the penned in twenty twelve.

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<v Speaker 1>It is there, the plan for local government, the plan

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<v Speaker 1>for parisdats, the plan for state owned enterprises, the plan

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<v Speaker 1>for professionalizing the civil service. It's all there.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, We've got about seven plans Clarence that we come

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<v Speaker 2>back from about nineteen ninety and each one of them

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<v Speaker 2>succeeded the other, and they've been I think the problem

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<v Speaker 2>is is that the plans are so grand that that

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<v Speaker 2>they oftentimes don't get implemented. We need very specific plans

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<v Speaker 2>for very specific areas of work, and people put into

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<v Speaker 2>capacity and teams made, task teams made. You saw what

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<v Speaker 2>happened with SARS. Where SARS basically there was a concentrated

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<v Speaker 2>focus on recapturing the capturers, so to speak, and putting

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<v Speaker 2>things correct. It's getting there and they've done a fairly job,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's what we need to replicate in the context

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<v Speaker 2>of I think many of the other departments. Is a

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<v Speaker 2>recapacitation or reprioritization, but done so much more focused as

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<v Speaker 2>opposed to some grand plan where everything gets lost in

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<v Speaker 2>the detail.

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<v Speaker 1>We got to wrap it there. We appreciate your time,

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<v Speaker 1>doctor Delle McKinley, political analyst, just getting an idea of

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<v Speaker 1>where the GNU is headed up or rather holding up.

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<v Speaker 1>It is two minutes from ten o'clock. He's coming your

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<v Speaker 1>way at the top of the hour.