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Speaker 1: The money show the market.

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Speaker 2: Chris Stewart's portfolio manager at ninety one Chris good evening,

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Speaker 2: A really strong update from Reengrow tonight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good evening, Stephen yep. First half earnings out of

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Speaker 1: Remgrow coming through with very strong earnings growth city eight

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Speaker 1: and a half percent, well ahead of what the market

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Speaker 1: was looking for, eighty percent increase in dividend, and some

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Speaker 1: ongoing activities to continue to streamline their portfolio and an

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Speaker 1: attempt to I guess narrow the discount to net asset

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Speaker 1: value at which the company is currently trading, which is

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Speaker 1: narrowed somewhat from last time it reported, but remains by

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Speaker 1: historic standards still quite high. And I guess if you

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Speaker 1: look at the quality of the earnings beat other than

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Speaker 1: you know, a couple of one offs within Mediclinics earnings

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Speaker 1: numbers as well as within Tatall Energies, which particularly benefited

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Speaker 1: from a three hundred and thirty million rand odd pipeline

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Speaker 1: refund from trans Net. Outside of that, you know decent

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Speaker 1: organic growth in the underlying entities, and you know a

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Speaker 1: fairly strong result out of brim Direct Day.

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Speaker 2: I think so many markets around the world, as included

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Speaker 2: really beholden to the oil price, and one or two

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Speaker 2: pieces in the Economists quite recently suggesting the oil price

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Speaker 2: should actually be much higher than it is because there's

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Speaker 2: just no way we're going to get oil supplies going

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Speaker 2: through the strait of Humus and things going back to normal,

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Speaker 2: you know, anytime over the next few months. How do

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Speaker 2: you see it playing out At the moment, I mean

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Speaker 2: markets are kind of in thrall to the oil price.

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Speaker 2: US markets though it's not quite business as than usual,

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Speaker 2: but it's not always that far off.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's the oil price near term is

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Speaker 1: incredibly difficult to predict, you know. I think it's just

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Speaker 1: over one hundred dollars a barrel on Brent crude today.

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Speaker 1: You know, one could very easily make an argument that

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Speaker 1: the market is possibly underreacting in the near term to

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Speaker 1: what can potentially happen. We saw moves of foot overnight

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Speaker 1: to try to initiate talks towards some sort of off

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Speaker 1: ramp from some of the tensions that have set in

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Speaker 1: Trump saying that you know, he'd sent via Pakistan a

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Speaker 1: fifteen point planned to Iran the Iranians recently as a

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Speaker 1: couple of hours ago, sort of fairly clearly rejecting that

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Speaker 1: move and therefore indicating that perhaps talks or not imminent.

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Speaker 1: I think it's clear that the US, you know that

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Speaker 1: President Trump is probably under estimated the fallout from the

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Speaker 1: invasion of Iran, would like very much to de escalate,

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Speaker 1: but doesn't really know how to de escalate while saving

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Speaker 1: face and maintaining, you know, a victory in the eyes

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Speaker 1: of the US voting populace. So that's pretty you know,

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Speaker 1: it's going to carry on being quite volatile in the

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Speaker 1: near term. I think the oil price remains elevated. But

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Speaker 1: what's more interesting, if you look at twelve months forward

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Speaker 1: oil futures, you know, the market's still discounting the fact

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Speaker 1: that oil and twelve months time will return to somewhere

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Speaker 1: near the mid seventy dollars a barrel market. I think

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Speaker 1: the biggest, bigger risk for the global economy is, even

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Speaker 1: in the event of a de escalation of tensions and

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Speaker 1: some sort of normality of you know, oil supply out

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Speaker 1: of the Middle East through the straits of Humors, I

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Speaker 1: think behavioral changes are going to dictate that the oil

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Speaker 1: place may settle structurally at higher levels than that, and

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Speaker 1: we all know what impacts the oil price has on

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Speaker 1: global inflation and indeed you know intrast rate cycles across

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Speaker 1: the globe and indeed global growth. So you know, a

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Speaker 1: highly uncertain outcome, and you know you could argue that

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Speaker 1: a somewhat sanguine response out of markets at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Chris Stuart, thanks so much, portfolio manager at ninety one