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Speaker 1: And now The Money Show with Stephen Crittis on seven

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Speaker 1: oh two.

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Speaker 2: Let's walk little.

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Speaker 3: The Money Show with Stephen Curtis is brought to you

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Speaker 3: by ABS of Corporate and Investment Banking, a Pan African

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Speaker 3: bank that's invested in your story because your story matters.

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Speaker 3: Good evening, eight minutes after six times, Stephen Curtis. I

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Speaker 3: think that the reason we'll remember today is probably because

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Speaker 3: it really brings to an end a sort of era

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Speaker 3: of legal cigarette production in South Africa. British American Tobacco

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Speaker 3: closing their last factory here it's in Heidelberg, two hundred

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Speaker 3: and thirty jobs going. As you've probably heard through the day,

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Speaker 3: they say, because of the illicit cigarette economy. What's going

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Speaker 3: on that the illicit industry? And I'm sure at some

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Speaker 3: point there's a conversation to be had about the longer

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Speaker 3: term consequences of the lockdown, the ban there, which seemed

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Speaker 3: to me unreasonable at the time, and the longer this

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Speaker 3: goes on seems more and more unreasonable to me now.

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Speaker 3: But the ban on the sale of tobacco during the pandemic,

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Speaker 3: only one other country did anything like it. When it

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Speaker 3: comes to tobacco, well, obviously we'll speak to British American

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Speaker 3: Tobacco about that. It's also sort of really leads to

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Speaker 3: a bigger conversation about a much bigger issue in South Africa,

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Speaker 3: which is literally the consequence of allowing so many people

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Speaker 3: to break the law so often and what that does

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Speaker 3: to legal businesses. And surely British American Tobacco is a

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Speaker 3: victim of that. Now, I'm no fan of the tobacco industry.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you're aware of that. But even so, if

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Speaker 3: we're going to have laws, we must enforce them, and

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Speaker 3: we're clearly not able to do that in this industry,

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Speaker 3: and that surely is a major major problem. We speak

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Speaker 3: to Johnny Malott or from British American Tobacco in just

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Speaker 3: a moment. I can't believe that Nurser could make yet

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Speaker 3: another mistake, and yet here we are. I mean, Nurser

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Speaker 3: always manages to surprise, don't they. The Energy regulator finishly

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Speaker 3: difficult to sort out elliteracy tariffs sometimes lots of things

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Speaker 3: to consider. But in this case, according to the Money

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Speaker 3: Were Report, what essentially happened is that they actually created

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Speaker 3: a situation in which it would appear tariffs were implemented

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Speaker 3: in certain places that really seemed to punish businesses and

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Speaker 3: was good for houseown householders. Now that's going to be

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Speaker 3: reversed by the looks of it, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: an important conversation. We'll speak to one of the people

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Speaker 3: who was involved in the court case that led to

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Speaker 3: this finding. I was interested to see in News twenty

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Speaker 3: four report by Carol Peyton, who are rate very highly

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Speaker 3: as you know that you're not got on one of

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Speaker 3: the Financement's disease. He wants a truce in the sort

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Speaker 3: of NHI battle there are I think it's one too,

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Speaker 3: I think nine court battles now relating to the NHI.

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Speaker 3: He's looking for a truce on that good We obviously

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Speaker 3: need such a thing. I don't know though, how you

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Speaker 3: would sort of negotiated who you would negotiated with. We

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Speaker 3: know the Health Minister, doctor erin Moutsueltti rarely wants an NHI,

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Speaker 3: So how do you negotiate that And that's really it's

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Speaker 3: going to be difficult. Craig Comrie the sea of the

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Speaker 3: propmed medical scheme and we'll speak to him about that,

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Speaker 3: and then also mining the Minerals Council saying that yes,

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Speaker 3: they're making lots of money at the moment. We know

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Speaker 3: that their record have got prices for gold platinums on

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Speaker 3: a tear, But there are still real issues around the

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Speaker 3: way in which the price of mining and costs for

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Speaker 3: the mining industry are going up. In this sort of

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Speaker 3: mining boom won't be with us forever. This would be

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Speaker 3: the good moment to reform. I would say, good to

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Speaker 3: hear from you tonight. Oh double one, double a three

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Speaker 3: oh seven O two two one four four six oh

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Speaker 3: five six seven. Are you weeping tears for the jobs

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Speaker 3: lost at British American tobacco? Are the crocodile tears? You

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Speaker 3: don't mean it seriously because this is a tobacco company.

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Speaker 3: How do we deal with the illicit tobacco economy? Please

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Speaker 3: your thoughts? Oh seven two seven oh two one seven

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Speaker 3: oh two. And how is it that the tobacco economy,

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Speaker 3: the illicit, the illegal economy, has managed to get so big?

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Speaker 4: I mean, who do you blame for that? And how

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Speaker 4: do we affix it?

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Speaker 3: Twelve minutes after six, The Money Show.

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Speaker 5: With Stephen krudis live on ninety two and seven and

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Speaker 5: one six FM, streaming on the Prime Media plus.

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Speaker 2: NAP and TSTV channel eight five six.

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Speaker 3: Well, first this morning a remportant business day, and then

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Speaker 3: confirmation from British American Tobacco themselves that they've decided to

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Speaker 3: shut down their last cigarette factory in South Africa. They

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Speaker 3: say two hundred and thirty jobs will be lost. Johnny

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Speaker 3: Malato is the head of corporate affairs for B eight

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Speaker 3: sub Saharan Africa. Johnny, good evening and thanks for your time.

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Speaker 3: You say you're shutting down your factory because of the

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Speaker 3: illicit economy. What impact is the illicit cigarette economy the

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Speaker 3: industry having on your business.

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Speaker 6: Thank you very much, and good evenings to you and

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Speaker 6: your listeners. The impact really has been, as you correctly

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Speaker 6: pointed out, there are potentially two hundred and thirty jobs

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Speaker 6: at risk. We announced yesterday that we will be seizing

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Speaker 6: local production, but we will continue through an import model sold.

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Speaker 6: To be quite clear, we remain present in meted to

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Speaker 6: South Africa and should the situation substantially change, would definitely

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Speaker 6: reinvest in local production. But what that does mean is

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Speaker 6: that where we are today is that over the last

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Speaker 6: ten years, we've tried the best to hang on, you know,

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Speaker 6: to not come to this painful decision. But the reality

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Speaker 6: is that we are only operating at just thirty five

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Speaker 6: percent of total capacity at the factory, which is a

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Speaker 6: massive facility. Just to give you the scale, that factory

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Speaker 6: could produce the total size of the tobacco industry in

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Speaker 6: South Africa, so that's how big it is. So if

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Speaker 6: you're operating at just thirty five percent of your total capacity,

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Speaker 6: it means all the efficiency measures that we've implemented have

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Speaker 6: now come to the point where you know, we've reached

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Speaker 6: the limit of how much feather you can try to

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Speaker 6: implement efficiencies. But the third issue is that that economy

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Speaker 6: in hight of depth. We've been there for over fifty

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Speaker 6: years and that's where between ourselves and a second manufacturer

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Speaker 6: have been the biggest contributors to the local economy as

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Speaker 6: well as too the fiscus in the municipality from the

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Speaker 6: revenue generation point of view. And we've also reached out

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Speaker 6: to the mayor yesterday to convey you know, our decision

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Speaker 6: as a catecy seeing as you know, he has been

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Speaker 6: also at the forefront of trying to engage with other

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Speaker 6: spheres of government and law enforcement authorities to help him

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Speaker 6: in making sure that that you factory remains viable.

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Speaker 3: Your sales volumes, how they declined then, because you produce

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Speaker 3: these cigarettes to sell. What kind of percentage change are

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Speaker 3: we looking at from saying before the pandemic and where

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Speaker 3: you are now in terms of the volumes that you

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Speaker 3: sell that are legal cigarettes, Yes, Steven.

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Speaker 6: Out of respect to you and the listeners, let me

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Speaker 6: also put a stub with the disclaimer that we are

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Speaker 6: in a close period. I will share with you though

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Speaker 6: that between twenty nineteen and twenty twenty one, so we

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Speaker 6: lost about forty percent of our volume. That is the

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Speaker 6: information that is public that I can share. And since

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Speaker 6: then we've seen feather declines which has led us to

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Speaker 6: the point where we are now. But the forty percent

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Speaker 6: decline itself was quite significant and also over the years

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Speaker 6: has also involved the reduction of headcount over the years.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so from the pandemic, your volumes never recovered.

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Speaker 4: They never recovered.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, In fact, it accelerated from the pandemic because we

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Speaker 6: had started seeing some green shoots when from twenty eighteen

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Speaker 6: twenty nineteen, and as well as when the new Commissioner

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Speaker 6: of SARS joined, we were sitting somewhere around forty one percent.

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Speaker 6: That's where the illicit industry was, but past forward, post COVID,

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Speaker 6: that just spiked and it continues here on your year.

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Speaker 3: You've been calling on government to deal with the illicit

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Speaker 3: cigarette industry. SARS has been trying to increase its enforcement.

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Speaker 3: Is any of that having any impact that you can see.

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Speaker 6: Looks during the biggest problem with the illicit industries that

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Speaker 6: eighty percent of it is locally produced, is local manufacturing,

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Speaker 6: which we have rather than just complaining to the government,

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Speaker 6: but we've also profited, you know, solutions like placement of

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Speaker 6: customs officers and factories. If you look at places like Nigeria,

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Speaker 6: for example, they have them permanently in their factories and

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Speaker 6: you have almost zero percent illicit And this is some

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Speaker 6: of the things that had led to that slight decline

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Speaker 6: in twenty nineteen. And this is something that we said

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Speaker 6: to such this is a low hanging fruit. But we've

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Speaker 6: also called upon the Ministry of Finance to say that

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Speaker 6: the above inflation increases that we've seen year on year

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Speaker 6: where you are only controlling only twenty five percent of

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Speaker 6: the market doesn't make sense because you widen the gap

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Speaker 6: over so much. Given the stretch to the consumer, it's

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Speaker 6: only natural that they will gravitate towards the cheaper option.

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Speaker 6: And as we know, this is a sin product which

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Speaker 6: is not necessarily meant to be easily accessible, but the

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Speaker 6: consumer now can access it for as cheap as tendrand.

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Speaker 6: So those are the concents that we've raised, and we have,

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Speaker 6: I mean, we have had some commitments where we saw

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Speaker 6: the Minister locating budget last year towards tackling this problem.

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Speaker 6: We've seen the Commissioner made some very very strong commitments

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Speaker 6: and statements. We've seen the Border Management Authority also coming

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Speaker 6: to the party. However, this still requires a whole of

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Speaker 6: government approach and a sustainable approach and if I may

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Speaker 6: even add to say that to go after the big fish,

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Speaker 6: because at the moment you are tinkering around the edges

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Speaker 6: where you're just erupting the retail sector and also just

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Speaker 6: capturing here and they're a player, but not really the

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Speaker 6: main players behind the illicit industry.

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Speaker 3: Johnny Meloto, thank you. Ahead of Corporate Affairs for bat

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Speaker 3: some Saharan Africa. Very difficult news for people in Heidelberg.

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Speaker 5: Tonight, Steven's on the Money six to eight pm.

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Speaker 3: Eighteen after sex a court ruling overnight in which a

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Speaker 3: judge ordered the energy regulator Nurser to recalculate the electricity

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Speaker 3: prices that you pay in Joeburg E Coroleni, Mauddi, BEng

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Speaker 3: and Umsunduzi after several businesses and one business group said

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Speaker 3: that tariffs were discriminating against them. So what that means

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Speaker 3: is it is possible that once the tariffs have been recalculated,

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Speaker 3: households who've already paid too little for their electricity might

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Speaker 3: have to pay more to make up the difference. Some

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Speaker 3: of the companies would have paid too much, they might

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Speaker 3: have to be reimbursed in some way. Melanie Vaness is

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Speaker 3: the CEO of the Peter Maritzburg and Midland's Chamber of Business.

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Speaker 3: They were involved in this court action on behalf of

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Speaker 3: enterprises and businesses in the Msndouzi area. They went against

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Speaker 3: the Umsunduzi municipality. Melanie, good evening, Thanks for your time.

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Speaker 3: Why did you bring this application? What was happening to

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Speaker 3: your members that you thought was unfair?

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Speaker 7: Well, several years ago, in fact two twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 7: we supported some court action against the regulator to challenge

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Speaker 7: the methodology that they're employed to determine municipal tariffs because

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Speaker 7: by law, municipalities are permitted to recover the efficiently incurred

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Speaker 7: cost of supply and a small return on assets, and

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Speaker 7: it has to be calculated per customer category. So municipalities

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Speaker 7: have to submit that cost of supply to get an increase,

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Speaker 7: and in our case, our municipality were granted at fifteen

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Speaker 7: percent increase across careiff categories without having looked at the

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Speaker 7: real data per category. And in our case, industrial members

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Speaker 7: appear to be subsidizing other tariff categories, and so that

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Speaker 7: is basically it's both unfair and bad for our economy

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Speaker 7: because there are big employers and that's just not acceptable.

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Speaker 7: Economy can't go and our manufacturers can't compete if they're

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Speaker 7: not getting a secure quality supply of electricity at a

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Speaker 7: competitive rate.

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Speaker 3: So the cost of supply issue is something that I

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Speaker 3: think is sort of in a way you've been ruled upon,

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Speaker 3: perhaps in your case earlier, because it came it is

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Speaker 3: true that municipalities has not been submitting that nurs had

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Speaker 3: not been considering that, But at the same time, did

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Speaker 3: nurser consult you, because isn't that something they're also supposed

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Speaker 3: to do? So did they make it clear to your

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Speaker 3: members they would be paying more than other people for

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Speaker 3: their power?

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Speaker 7: No, absolutely not. There is a consultation process both with

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Speaker 7: the municipality. When they determined draft tariffs, we asked for

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Speaker 7: them to share the cost of supply with us, and

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Speaker 7: they refused. We then asked the Energy Regulator, and they're

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Speaker 7: also compelled to consult with us, to share the municipality's

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Speaker 7: cost of supply studies so we could engage meaningfully on it,

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Speaker 7: and they too refused, And so they determined the teriff

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Speaker 7: the absence of making that information available. So we really

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Speaker 7: had no choice but to take this action.

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Speaker 3: What's your understanding of what happens now? The tariffs will

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Speaker 3: have to be recalculated. I presume the municipalities would have

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Speaker 3: to include a cost of supply. I have to say, Melanie,

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Speaker 3: and I'm sorry to say this, I don't know if

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Speaker 3: all of the municipalities will actually be able to do that.

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Speaker 7: As in our case, our municipality did submit a cost

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Speaker 7: of supply study. Unfortunately, in our view it was a

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Speaker 7: flawed coster supply. They've got ten days from the order

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Speaker 7: made by the court to submit resubmit their application. I

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Speaker 7: would imagine that they are not going to find much

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Speaker 7: joy unless the review the cost of supply study and

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Speaker 7: put an amended one in that looks at every customer

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Speaker 7: category and then makes the application on that basis. We'll

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Speaker 7: then have the opportunity to interrogate the cost of supply

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Speaker 7: and to make our comments and run.

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Speaker 8: A proper process.

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Speaker 7: How it's exactly what you have had and when the

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Speaker 7: tariffs were first proposed and considered.

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Speaker 3: Ban There's still a few things that have to happen here.

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Speaker 3: But is it possible that households that ended up with

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Speaker 3: lower paying less relictuously than they should have because you

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Speaker 3: were paying more, that somehow that money might have to

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Speaker 3: be made up.

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Speaker 7: Look, I think that it's going to be very very

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Speaker 7: important for all sectors of society to engage with this

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Speaker 7: cost of supply. If you look at the municipality's domestic tariffs,

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Speaker 7: they are much higher than the domestic tariffs of ESCAM

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Speaker 7: and essentially they're supplying, they're.

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Speaker 8: Giving the same service.

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Speaker 7: So I can't see how the current tariffs that they're

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Speaker 7: paying won't be sufficient to cover the cost for their category.

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Speaker 7: So it will be important for all sectors of society

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Speaker 7: to engage with that cost of supply and to ensure

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Speaker 7: that we get fair cost reflective tariffs in every customer category.

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Speaker 3: Melanie Vaness, thank you so much. See the PETA, Marrisburg

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Speaker 3: and Midland's Chamber of Comments to that. Matthew Cruise, the

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Speaker 3: energy expert at in Power, Matthew, good evening. I mean,

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Speaker 3: once again NURSA has egg on its face. It must

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Speaker 3: be losing credibility as a regulator.

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Speaker 9: Hello, good evening and thanks for having me so. Yes,

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Speaker 9: unfortunately this is the case. Now there's this is now

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Speaker 9: following the mistakes that they made, the fifty four billion

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Speaker 9: round mistake that was agreed with ESCOMB and now that's

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Speaker 9: back in the High Court as well. So there's a

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Speaker 9: lot of egg going on. This is space and this

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Speaker 9: is we shouldn't forget that. This is actually something that

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Speaker 9: occurs pretty much every single time that there's a multi

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Speaker 9: year price determination from ESCOM where they asked for like

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Speaker 9: a ridiculous fifty percent increase or last time thirty six

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Speaker 9: perent increase and the nurse says, no, no, you're not going

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Speaker 9: to get that increase. You can get a lower one.

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Speaker 9: Don't worry public, It's going to be initially short term

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Speaker 9: pain for long term gain the first year is going

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Speaker 9: to be only half of what es COM applied for

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Speaker 9: in our case last year twelve point seven four percent increase,

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Speaker 9: but then this year we were hoping to get a

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Speaker 9: five point th six percent increase, but now it looks

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Speaker 9: like it might be even a ten point five percent piece.

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Speaker 9: So this is unfortunate that nurses going to this situation

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Speaker 9: at a time when they we would hope that they

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Speaker 9: would be showing a lot of competence and excellence in

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Speaker 9: the space because they need to be playing a key

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Speaker 9: role in the unbundling of es COM to ensure that

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Speaker 9: that efficient cost of supply that was mentioned is actually

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Speaker 9: correct and being awarded without ESCOM, as they termaut receiving

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Speaker 9: undue conversations. So I've got a big problem with the

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Speaker 9: whole way that this cost of supplies approached because if

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Speaker 9: you think about it, if you were a company and

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Speaker 9: you're told, oh, no, you can replenish any cost that

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Speaker 9: you have with a small margin, you would just inflect

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Speaker 9: your cost and find ways of reflecting more costs. And

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Speaker 9: this has been seen with es COM and from my

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Speaker 9: time ESCOM and understanding how it goes with recent versipalities,

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Speaker 9: they unfortunately view the revenue collected from electricity as revenue

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Speaker 9: that they can spend on anything. So they use it

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Speaker 9: for word infrastructure, they use it for their homes, their

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Speaker 9: houses and their cars, things like that. The fruitless and

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Speaker 9: waste wasteful expenditure that we hear about, it's the revenue

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Speaker 9: from electricity. So then if that's the case, are they

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Speaker 9: really providing the Are they really accounting for the costs

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Speaker 9: that they're using to supply electricity? I don't think so.

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Speaker 9: So I'm hoping for a whole review of the way

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Speaker 9: that the cost litity is actually determined into Africa.

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Speaker 3: Well, I was going to say, I mean, if ever

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Speaker 3: there was a moment for a sort of big bang

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Speaker 3: reform approach, something that really changes that, this would be.

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Speaker 10: Now.

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Speaker 3: The system is kind of creaking and the electricity environments

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Speaker 3: has changed so much in the last ten years. I

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Speaker 3: know there's a review of the tariff structure. I think

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Speaker 3: SNADI is in charge of that. That'll take some time.

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Speaker 3: What people rarely want, of course, is cheaper power.

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Speaker 9: M Yes, that's the being on the cards for the

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Speaker 9: last ten years for the government saying that oh all

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Speaker 9: the screen electricity is coming online, is going to bring

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Speaker 9: down the sty but that's not actually been a reality.

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Speaker 9: So what is exciting is that when this unbundled state

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Speaker 9: of es COM finally comes into fruition and we have

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Speaker 9: a democratized intersector, it won't be within s COM's ability

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Speaker 9: to be like, oh, this is now the prostaticity for everyone.

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Speaker 9: They will be bidder in the markets, no longer at

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Speaker 9: the terminal of the costs of electricity. So what will

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Speaker 9: happen is the other independent power producers that I'll able

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Speaker 9: to provide electricity from solar farms pedals batteries and wind

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Speaker 9: farms pedal batteries, that electricity to be costs half of

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Speaker 9: what is comme's currently charging. They will bid the electricity

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Speaker 9: on the markets and then all of the less expensive

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Speaker 9: renewal energy will be practiced first, and then ESCOM will

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Speaker 9: be able to receive their price. So that'll start driving

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Speaker 9: down the price writesity, But I see that only happening

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Speaker 9: in about three to five years.

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Speaker 3: Unfortunately, then, Matthew Cruz, thank you energy expert at im

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Speaker 3: Power twenty seven. After six the money show. The governor

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Speaker 3: is portfolio manager at rand Swiss House. It a tough

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Speaker 3: day for Rich months even though the earnings weren't that bad,

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Speaker 3: I thought.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, no, I mean, look, the thing is that in

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Speaker 10: constant the currency, the earnings looked quite nice, I mean

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Speaker 10: double digit improvement. Unfortunately, if you're put in the actual

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Speaker 10: number in it's not as positive. I think, only up

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Speaker 10: about four percent or so. Also, you must take an

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Speaker 10: account the fact of the last you know, say six

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Speaker 10: months or so. This company is up quite nicely from

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Speaker 10: like the loads itself basically around about August last year

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Speaker 10: until now it's up about twenty two percent from loads

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Speaker 10: in August.

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Speaker 3: In the US. Suddenly it looks like them is a

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Speaker 3: tough day for their stock exchanges yesterday. But suddenly TSMC,

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Speaker 3: the chip maker, it clearly had a blockbuster quarter. I mean,

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Speaker 3: suddenly it looks like the AI rally could be back.

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Speaker 10: Look, I mean yeah, TSMT is going to be seeing

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Speaker 10: something in the regional about thirty percent growth in in

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Speaker 10: in their earnings. Yet on the REMU Sorry, I do

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Speaker 10: think that you know, the fear around what's been happening

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Speaker 10: with regards to especially it's such a proper stuff. But

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Speaker 10: if I've just said, but what the film's been happening

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Speaker 10: with the AI sector at the moment is there's there's

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Speaker 10: almost an other life fear that it's une so much

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Speaker 10: there must be a bubble. And we've seen companies that

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Speaker 10: KMT is is black parts of tele Monk. We see

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Speaker 10: ASML past a half or trillion dollars Monk, not to

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Speaker 10: mention the indidires and you know the Google of the

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Speaker 10: world past four trillion. These numbers are so large that,

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Speaker 10: you know, unless we see incredible results coming through the

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Speaker 10: market intermediate product for if they ever KSMT has delivered

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Speaker 10: these incredible results.

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Speaker 3: Brent Crewd went to I think was sixty six dollars.

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Speaker 3: Yesterday's pulled back a little bit. And obviously the situation

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Speaker 3: in Iran, I presume is what's pulling that is what's

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Speaker 3: driving that. But fundamentally oil still seems to be in

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Speaker 3: a kind of strong supply phase.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 10: Look, I mean the fact that all is it's holding

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Speaker 10: around the sixty dollars a battle level, it's generally shows

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Speaker 10: that it's the buyer that's controlled the more of the scilla.

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Speaker 10: If you look at what OPENQ once, what you know,

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Speaker 10: the reel produced in the US one and other places,

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Speaker 10: the deprise of ALL one. They don't wanted a fifty

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Speaker 10: dollars the battle. They want it closer to, like the

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Speaker 10: eighty dollars to be given above that level, you know,

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Speaker 10: a lot of budgets work only about eighteen dollars a battle.

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Speaker 10: Unfortunately for them that the old price right now is

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Speaker 10: not cooperating. And we have seen you oil you know

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Speaker 10: pretty much is about twenty twenty two come down quite sharply,

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Speaker 10: be down about forty four percent forty five percent twenty

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Speaker 10: twenty two till now with recause what's happening in Iran.

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Speaker 10: But this is greatness. We're just from the point of

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Speaker 10: view that we in Africa are not going to be

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Speaker 10: obviously paying higher to the mounds part petrol. But the

400
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Speaker 10: fact of the matter is that the reason that is

401
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Speaker 10: coming down is because there seems to be less willing

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Speaker 10: this apparently among the US to do something you know,

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Speaker 10: too violent in Iran at the moment, which is you know,

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Speaker 10: obviously from an imagination in point of view consumer, what

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Speaker 10: happened to Iraq, We having to Syria and other places

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Speaker 10: they in the being in the re least a good thing.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and then.

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Speaker 3: There's been and I'm sure it's going to be a

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Speaker 3: political issue in the US. The strength of that economy.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the Trump administration says it's you know, the

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Speaker 3: best it's ever been, et cetera. It's going into earning

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Speaker 3: season there. Now, is it possible to know if we're

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Speaker 3: currently going to going to see I mean, it's going

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Speaker 3: to really tell us what's actually going on.

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Speaker 10: Yeah. Look, I mean if we look at the US,

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Speaker 10: the forecast for growth in their top quarter, it is

417
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Speaker 10: surprisingly high for these podcasts being pushed through. I mean,

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Speaker 10: REMEMBERLUS we could be seeing you know, Toulus. I think

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Speaker 10: the number is seeing like goes to like four plus

420
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Speaker 10: percent at the moment into the forecast or what you

421
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Speaker 10: expected what a growth in the US? Obviously you know

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Speaker 10: there was you know, movements in terms of things like

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Speaker 10: for instance, the shutdown, et cetera. But forecasts and growth

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Speaker 10: in the US is against a sounding number. I mean

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Speaker 10: because through the fact that the EU last year did

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Speaker 10: we grow by one and a half, you got to

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Speaker 10: be uh, the US right now? It's Trump probably more

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Speaker 10: to do with things like the AI in constructure prove

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Speaker 10: that's happening and other factors, But the US is by

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Speaker 10: far the strongest large economy the world, even in the

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Speaker 10: comparative place like China.

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Speaker 3: Both Governor, thanks very much, indeed, portfolio manager at Grand

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Speaker 3: Swiss to appreciate it. Yeah, interesting to see how it's

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Speaker 3: all playing out there. You with the Money show. Just

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Speaker 3: after six thirty, What up Stephen.

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Speaker 2: On seven two seven two one seven o two.

437
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 3: A couple of messages coming through tonight about a nurser

438
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 3: and the way in which it sort of managed all

439
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 3: of this. I have to say, I mean, what I

440
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: keep coming back to is and I have to sort

441
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 3: of say that I kind of agree, I think with

442
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 3: the expert we spoke to, and just what you know,

443
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 3: he was saying about the problems that we have, Matthew Cruz,

444
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: that it's just got too complicated, too technical, The system

445
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 3: is too old, the system has changed, everything has changed

446
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: around it. It just doesn't sort of work anymore. And

447
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 3: I don't know how how he sort of you know,

448
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: fixed all of that. And Timber is saying today that

449
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 3: the energy expert from him is misinformed. Eskim does not

450
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 3: set the electricity price. The price is set by the

451
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 3: regulator nurser. It's just honestly claim the ESCUM sets its

452
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 3: own price. I don't think that's what you're saying in Timber,

453
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 3: I'm afraid. I think what he was saying is that

454
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 3: Eskam still has a cost to produce electricity. So I

455
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 3: don't think Eskam was I don't think you were saying

456
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 3: Escam says its price at all, but the cost of coal.

457
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 3: Eskim would know, the cost of labor. Eskim would know,

458
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 3: and it's amits all of that to nurser and things

459
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 3: go from there. Now, don't forget if you'll talk about

460
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 3: the NHI in a moment. I mean, is it possible

461
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 3: that there could be some kind of truce one would hope.

462
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 5: The Lanely Show with Stephen krudis live on ninety two

463
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 5: point seven and one six f M, streaming on the

464
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 5: Prime Media Plus NAP.

465
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 2: And DStv channel eight five.

466
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 3: Six fourteen minutes now to seven the time. Well a

467
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 3: report from News twenty fours Carol Payton today saying the

468
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:57,199
Speaker 3: finance and now one some kind of negotiation to resolve

469
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 3: would have become a nine separate court cases that have

470
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 3: been brought against governments implementation of the na Chine. You'll

471
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 3: know the Health Ministry and the current Health Minister, doctor

472
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 3: Aaron Motsouli, have been adamant they want to go ahead

473
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 3: with its implementation, but private healthcare funders, healthcare providers, doctors,

474
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: they've all launched cases against it. Craig Comri is one

475
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 3: of those involved in one of the cases against CIT.

476
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 3: He's the CEO of the profit made Medical Scheme Craig

477
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 3: good evening. Are you open to some kind of negotiation

478
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 3: with government over this evening?

479
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 10: Stephen? Absolutely.

480
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 11: We always wanted to sit around a table and discuss

481
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,199
Speaker 11: and avoid the legal and protracted legal cases that are

482
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 11: out there. So throughout the consultation processes there was lots

483
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 11: of submissions from both the funding associations and also the

484
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 11: provider associations for the doctors indicate in their preference for

485
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 11: alternatives which are far more realistic in terms of achieving

486
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 11: improvement in terms of universal healthcare coverage. And so we

487
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 11: welcome the minister's pronouncements on opening up and hopefully an

488
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 11: invitation will follow to have those discussions.

489
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 3: Do you think that you might that you let me

490
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 3: put it like this, so you're optimistic you would be

491
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 3: able to find common ground with government. It can look

492
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 3: and I mean court cases do this, It makes it

493
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 3: look like you very far apart. Do you think you're

494
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 3: as far apart as it sometimes looks.

495
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 11: I think there are a few very key parts of

496
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,120
Speaker 11: the National Health Insurance Act where if there aren't any

497
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 11: concessions made from a government perspective, I don't see anybody

498
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 11: in the private sector changing their views, and some of

499
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 11: them affect the constitutionality around how you would fund healthcare,

500
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 11: the role of medical schemes. Specifically, we find in a

501
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 11: lot of universal health care systems or national health systems

502
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 11: that private health care plays a small but important role

503
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 11: in providing funding for health care. What we have to

504
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 11: do is do it in a framework that improves the

505
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 11: equity that we that we see or the inequities we

506
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 11: see in the health system.

507
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 4: Currently.

508
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 3: One of the things that strikes me is it looks

509
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 3: like government's a little divided. So for a long time,

510
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,879
Speaker 3: the Health Ministry and the Health Minister, whoever it was

511
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 3: at the time, has supported the NHI, and this current

512
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 3: minister is strongly in favor of it.

513
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 4: The Treasury has always has always.

514
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 3: Sort of demurred, gone the other way or not never

515
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 3: come out and said we don't support it. But certainly

516
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 3: in the on the issue of the medical aid tax credit,

517
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 3: refused to sort of remove that, which to my mind

518
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 3: suggests they're not that keen. Could divisions and government make

519
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 3: this a little difficult for or because you will need

520
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 3: a negotiating partner, they will also need one, by the

521
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 3: way from you.

522
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think the best ally so far throughout the

523
00:27:56,359 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 11: ministries is certainly Minister go And I always say, when

524
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:05,400
Speaker 11: you are going to change a system and build something new,

525
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 11: the guys that hold the purse strings are probably amongst

526
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 11: the most important people you need to bring along. And

527
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 11: I think there's a realization after all the health consultative

528
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 11: processes and even the legal cases, that the amount of

529
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 11: money that there is available is just not possible to

530
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 11: do what I guess was promised him the National Health

531
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 11: Insurance Act when it was signed in And so I

532
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 11: think what we have to do is not just get

533
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 11: the Minister of Health around the table. I think he

534
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 11: has very clear views on what he wants to do,

535
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 11: but it would help to have both of them in

536
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 11: the room and talk about the realism around the need

537
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 11: to improve health care in the country.

538
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 3: I mean, I must say, I worry Craig and I

539
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 3: have reported on politics for a little while. I worry

540
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 3: that this will just become a political football. Whatever you

541
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 3: and whatever you know Gogana do there are always going

542
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 3: to be voices on both sides, one very much against

543
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 3: and one very much four And do you think do

544
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 3: you worry that that noise local election this year? Do

545
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 3: you think that noise might actually make it quite hard

546
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 3: to do a deal?

547
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 4: Yeah.

548
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 11: I think when the National Health Insurance Act was signed

549
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 11: in it was straight before the last set of elections.

550
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 11: So between the four and the two year type of

551
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 11: breaks in the politics, we see some reasoning coming through

552
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 11: or some reasonable reasonable views coming through and being pronounced. Now,

553
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 11: I do think it will distract from proper negotiations and

554
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 11: hopefully people can see past the politics and we can

555
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 11: get to something that's far more practical and implementable. But

556
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 11: what we have to do is get to a changed

557
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 11: healthcare system that does deliver better healthcare.

558
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 3: I suppose the other issue is how long all of

559
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 3: this takes, and a negotiation could go on lucially for

560
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 3: five to ten years, because it is such a big

561
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 3: complex thing that people are trying to do. You're trying

562
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 3: to create a system of universal healthcare in the most

563
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 3: unequal country on earth that by its very nature is

564
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 3: very difficult.

565
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 11: Absolutely, But I think things like the Court challenges that

566
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 11: are currently in play could also draw out in a

567
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 11: similar vein over many years without anybody moving. And I

568
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 11: think the risk there is that the health system needs

569
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 11: to change now. It can't wait five or ten years.

570
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 11: The private sector is particularly expensive in terms of getting

571
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 11: medical scheme coverage that needs to change and become more affordable.

572
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 11: And so some of the enabling legislation or the regulations

573
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 11: that have set on the back burner are things like

574
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 11: low income medical schemes, which in fact could relieve more

575
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 11: of the health burden from the state financing requirements. And

576
00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 11: so we just don't see any of the other important

577
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 11: pieces of reforms happening with a focus on we just

578
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 11: want to get NHI in place, and I think that's

579
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 11: going to be problematic.

580
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 3: Greig Comrie, thanks very much, indeed do appreciate it. The

581
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 3: sear of the prof made medical scheme okay, so the

582
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 3: doors open there for negotiations. I am not convinced. I'm

583
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 3: afraid that the Health Minister is going to be that

584
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 3: easy to convince to get to the table. On the

585
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 3: other hand, if government is serious about some kind of truth,

586
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 3: this would be the moment to make that happen.

587
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 12: The money show with Stephen Quets is brought to you

588
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 12: by abs A cib A Pan African Bank invested in

589
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 12: your story and the potential it can unlock because your

590
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 12: story matters as the rest f.

591
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 3: SP five minutes now two seven the time Well the

592
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 3: Minerals Council saying that despite the fact gold's at record highs,

593
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 3: platinum is doing so well at the moment, mining costs

594
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 3: are still rising very quickly, and of course once this

595
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: boom is over, the costs will remain.

596
00:31:59,400 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 4: They say.

597
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 3: Our prices are up by sixteen percent year on year,

598
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 3: water is up nearly twelve percent, Labor costs are up

599
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 3: by six percent. Andre Lowrenz is the economists at the

600
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 3: Minerals Council South Africa. Andre Good evening, what impacts are

601
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 3: power and water prices having on our miners? They're going

602
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 3: up really quite steeply.

603
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 13: Hi, Stephen, thanks for having me. Yeah. I mean, I

604
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 13: think everyone knows that electricity and water are quite essential

605
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 13: for mining operations. You can't run a mine without them.

606
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 13: I mean you can't switch the power. You definitely can't

607
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 13: operate without water. So I think you know the essential

608
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 13: nature of these services are not in doubt. The Reserve bangles.

609
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 13: I mean they've flagged administered prices which would include electricity

610
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 13: and water, how fast these are rising now for mining oftentimes,

611
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 13: what you'll see is that these items are increasing by

612
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:56,239
Speaker 13: around three times the rate of inflation. So even if

613
00:32:56,280 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 13: our members the mining industry budget for three times the

614
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 13: rate of CPI increases in water and electricity, still isn't enough.

615
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 13: So essentially what this is doing as eroding our competitiveness.

616
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 13: So it's particularly in South Africa that is a big concern,

617
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 13: something that we're actively sort of working on. Of course,

618
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 13: you know, the fact that load shedding has abated is

619
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 13: now being offset by the fact that electricity is so expensive,

620
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 13: so overall it's not good for profitability.

621
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 3: We know that many of your members are now producing

622
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 3: their own power where they can, and they started that

623
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 3: during load shedding. But the economic case now for well

624
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: any business, but particularly in mind to produce its own

625
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 3: power and to get away from ESCUM, I mean, the

626
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 3: economic case must be very strong now.

627
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 13: Yeah, exactly, so, I mean during the height of load shedding,

628
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 13: the reason for shifting towards renewables and self generation was

629
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 13: quite evident, right we didn't have electricity the sector needed it,

630
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 13: so investing in renewables, particularly because the case made itself

631
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 13: that has since been sought and I think everyone's quite

632
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 13: happy about that. But now, like I said, we sit

633
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 13: with the problem of very high electricity prices. So basically

634
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 13: what that does is it still incentivizes the mining sector

635
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 13: to continue to invest in cheaper renewables just to offset

636
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:26,959
Speaker 13: the expensive power that we're getting from ESCAM. And of course,

637
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 13: you know, there is also this third driver that we

638
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 13: don't often talk about, but there is the shift towards

639
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 13: renewable power because it, you know, helps us offset some

640
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 13: of the carbon taxes we talk about the border adjustment

641
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,320
Speaker 13: mechanism that the EU is imposing and the UK for example,

642
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 13: So there are also benefits of having renewable power from

643
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:54,399
Speaker 13: a sort of tax and environmental perspective. But no doubt

644
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 13: the price is just sort of hastening the shift towards renewables.

645
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 3: Problem is is that to bring I mean ESCAM, as

646
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 3: we know, and there's already discussed on this program today's

647
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 3: all sorts of problems in terms of bringing the price down.

648
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 3: Water also quite difficult to bring down. I mean, these

649
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 3: are hard things to change. So I mean you might

650
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 3: hope for reform, and yes, there's a teriff reform process

651
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 3: under way, but I don't really see it. I'm afraid,

652
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 3: certainly in the short term leading to cheap electricity or

653
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 3: cheaper water for you.

654
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean that's a very valid point, and that's

655
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 13: also why we've said, you know, we need to see

656
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 13: longer term, more sustained reform. But you're absolutely right, no

657
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 13: solution will bring us cheaper prices within the next two

658
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 13: years even right, So it's definitely, you know, something that

659
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 13: unless we embark on some sort of radical sort of

660
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,800
Speaker 13: structural change. And when you think about water, what we

661
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 13: need there is massive amounts of capital expenditure on infrastructure

662
00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 13: for example. These things take time. But I think you

663
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 13: can make the case that if we don't start now,

664
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 13: you know, we're not going to solve this problem even

665
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 13: in two years. So I think it's still imperative that

666
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 13: we do that, you know, the reforms and actress earnest today.

667
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 3: I mean, in a strange way, this is the moment,

668
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 3: isn't it, Because yes, you're making your members are making

669
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:22,280
Speaker 3: nice profits from platinum and gold, but this gives everyone

670
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 3: a bit of space to do some reform, and we

671
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 3: need to do it before this current boom comes to

672
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 3: an end and it won't last forever.

673
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 13: Yeah, it's also difficult because I think you know it's

674
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,840
Speaker 13: well known to the listeners as well. You have the

675
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 13: municipal problem, right, so sorting out electricity and water at

676
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 13: municipal level is also a challenge in and of itself.

677
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 13: So let's say, for arguments, even during these booms when

678
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 13: we have money, you still have the problem at municipal level.

679
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 13: And of course you know not all the money is

680
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 13: being fenced. And but for example, the mining industry, during

681
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 13: these booms, we are expecting to pay more in terms

682
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 13: of royalties and corporate income tax, but that goes to

683
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 13: the fiscus. They don't ring sends any of that. So

684
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 13: there's no guarantee to say that that will be directed,

685
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 13: that windfall will be directed towards water or electricity.

686
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 3: For example, Andre Lowrens, thanks very much. Indeed, economists at

687
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 3: the Minerals Council South Africa. At seven o'clock and.

688
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: Now The Money Show with Stephen Cribbs on seven oh

689
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: two nets, walk a little.

690
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 3: The Money Show with Stephen Crutis is brought to you

691
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 3: by ABSTE Corporates, an investment banking, a Pan African bank

692
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 3: that's invested in.

693
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 4: Your story because your story matters.

694
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 3: Lots to come in the next little well eight minutes

695
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,720
Speaker 3: after seven the time to speak to see pumelele Zoondie

696
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 3: and just a moment take addiction. Will you ever try

697
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,399
Speaker 3: to take a screen from a young child to try

698
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 3: to take your phone back?

699
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 4: I mean, what happens?

700
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 3: You ever done it?

701
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 4: Hey? The tantrum?

702
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 3: I mean you sometimes have to give them sugar to

703
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 3: get the screen back and that doesn't last. But why

704
00:37:58,480 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 3: is it happening? And how do you deal with it?

705
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 3: Such a tough thing. We'll speak to Supimalea about that

706
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 3: in just a moment. Small business focus tonight, how you

707
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 3: access new markets at the start of the year. Songba

708
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 3: will be with you. And then how you actually beat

709
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 3: the market? Investment school the focus of investment school Tonight's

710
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 3: what their purpose of the money show really is. I

711
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 3: suppose help you understand and make more money that how

712
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 3: to beat the market, and everyone is trying to do

713
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 3: the same thing. Will speak to doctor Mussamial Wandler and

714
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 3: Trello Gaijorse. Looking forward to that conversation tonight. Good year

715
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 3: from you, No double one double A three oh seven,

716
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,479
Speaker 3: O two two one four four six O five six seven,

717
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 3: and of course voice notes on No. Seven two seven

718
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:41,319
Speaker 3: oh two one seven oh two.

719
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 5: The Lovely Show with Stephen Krudis live on ninety two

720
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 5: point seven and one six FM, streaming on the Prime

721
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 5: Media Plus NAP.

722
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 2: And DStv channel eight five six.

723
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 3: Well, you would have seen today the news that Dion George,

724
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 3: the former Environmental Affairs Minister, has resigned from the Democratic

725
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 3: Alliance and he's clearly furious at how he's been treated.

726
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 3: The DA saying they would rather have gone through a

727
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 3: sort of formal process first, because there was a sort

728
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 3: of disciplinary investigation underway. I am not convinced at this

729
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 3: stage that the story around Dion George and the DA

730
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 3: leader John stan Haysen is over. George was also the

731
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 3: federal finance chair of the party, and his claim is

732
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 3: that stan Haysen essentially used the DA credit card for

733
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 3: private purposes. You remember the Sunday Times headline that it

734
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:35,840
Speaker 3: was being used for uber eats and things like that.

735
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 3: The DA says they had an investigation, that everything has

736
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 3: been reconciled and it's fine. The problem is that in

737
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 3: just about every corporate I can think of if you

738
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 3: use a corporate credit card for personal items and you

739
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 3: get found out, you are in big trouble. And one

740
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 3: way of sort of understanding this is that Deon George

741
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 3: was sort of the the chief financial officer of the DA,

742
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 3: and John Cnasen is sort of the CEO, and the

743
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 3: chief financial officer is left saying that the CEO was

744
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 3: misusing the company credit card and paying it back is

745
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 3: kind of not good enough in most corporates that I

746
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 3: can understand.

747
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 4: You have to do more than that.

748
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 3: Noven people are fired. You know you hear about it

749
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 3: from time to time. So I'm not convinced this is

750
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 3: all over at this point. And let me put it

751
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: like this. The DA's big campaigning point what they claim

752
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,280
Speaker 3: makes them different from everyone else. This is their argument,

753
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 3: not mine. But their argument is that they are clean

754
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 3: of corruption, and by and large, I think you could

755
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 3: say objectively speaking that that's true. This sullies that because

756
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 3: it's about the misuse of money. Now, John Cnasen might

757
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 3: well argue and I don't know the full facts, and

758
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 3: I must just make it clear. We don't know what

759
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 3: the payments were, we don't know how many they were.

760
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 3: We don't know what the circumstances were. Maybe he was

761
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 3: able to explain it away. I am not convinced that

762
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 3: this thing is over. I suspect it's going to come

763
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 3: back and den George in a very sort of public resignation.

764
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 3: And if you look at his letter, his resignation letters

765
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 3: very pointed, and it's been published in many places that

766
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 3: it's very personal. That might weaken part of his argument

767
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,439
Speaker 3: that it's so personal. The fact is, I think there's

768
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 3: going to be a sting in this tale that is

769
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 3: still to come.

770
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 2: So many show take Thursday.

771
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 3: Well, new evidence, this time from the research firm Swinburne

772
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 3: saying that parents are the reason that so many primary

773
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,760
Speaker 3: school children are actually addicted to tech to their screens

774
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 3: and that sixty three percent of children spend more time

775
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 3: on social media than the recommended guidelines. Comes in a

776
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,720
Speaker 3: journal called Human Behavior and Emerging Technologies. That's a journal

777
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 3: we should all sign up to see. Pumelella zondies artecha experts.

778
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 3: Pummeleta has it. I mean, what kind of tech are

779
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 3: children addicted to? And you know, from a very young

780
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 3: age you and see children who just refuse to give

781
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 3: the screen back.

782
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 8: Hello, Stephen, and yes, so very interested largely in gaming

783
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 8: and social media. And there are primary school going children.

784
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 8: And do you think that a lot of especially social

785
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 8: media companies would say that they don't allow children, including

786
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 8: by the way, games development companies, where you'd find that

787
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 8: just a lot of video games because of issues like addiction,

788
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 8: but also what children could be exposed to when they're

789
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 8: playing video games. They'd also say that they have eight restrictions.

790
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 8: But what these researchers have found is that children actually

791
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 8: are addicted to largely video gaming and social media, and

792
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 8: therefore they do have a tech addiction.

793
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 3: There's a study from the John Copping University in Sweden.

794
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 3: They say they're real concerns and addiction to video games.

795
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 3: Now it's not from a young age. I mean I

796
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 3: played games a little bit, but I'm not that interested.

797
00:42:56,719 --> 00:43:00,399
Speaker 3: I know plenty of people who are, and I get

798
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 3: that that can be an addiction, but I would think

799
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 3: that social media, particularly for teenage girls, actually can be fun. Well,

800
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 3: it's an addiction than video games, but they say video

801
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 3: games is the thing totally.

802
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 8: And also when you think about how we often think

803
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 8: about a gimmification of almost everything like this gammification of education,

804
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 8: and there are suggestions that maybe children will be interested

805
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 8: more in education if they are doing it through a

806
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 8: video game of sorts. But yes, maybe they might be.

807
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 8: They might learn more, they might learn better, they might

808
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 8: register concepts better they're playing games. But now there's this

809
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 8: high there's this issue that's being highlighted. You just mentioned

810
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 8: another reports apart from the initial reports that is broadly

811
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 8: on social media, and again this report from the university

812
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 8: in Sweden is also highlighting the issue off of video

813
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 8: games as well. Where where as will think that if

814
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 8: you play video games, you can you can do it

815
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 8: even in spaces like education or even learning. Sometimes they

816
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,399
Speaker 8: say you learn new languages better if you are doing

817
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 8: it through something that looks like a video game with

818
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 8: characters that children could identify with. But it does pose

819
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:11,760
Speaker 8: a danger.

820
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 3: There's other research that says parents can be addicted to

821
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 3: their smart watch. Now, I mean, maybe my watches are

822
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 3: a dolf, but apart from exercise, I don't know what

823
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 3: else I would look at on it.

824
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 8: Frankly, well, that's a huge chunk of it, and that's

825
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 8: why people are wearing smart watches. But what you also

826
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 8: find is that that your smart watches connected to your

827
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 8: mobile phone, so it's not like you are almost you

828
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 8: are moving away from a mobile phone when you put

829
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 8: on the smart watch, because when you receive a message,

830
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 8: it comes through your watch, you're going to look at it.

831
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 8: Certain apps comes through your watch as well, and also

832
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 8: sometimes you feel that you have these targets that you

833
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 8: must need. And also because you're wearing this watch, it's like, oh,

834
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 8: I can't I need to run, or I can't run

835
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 8: without this watch, or I can't go on a hike

836
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 8: without this watch, and you find that you're constantly now

837
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 8: checking it and you constantly now feel like you need

838
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 8: to meet certain targets because there's this watch that you're

839
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 8: not telling you that your target is this, and that's

840
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 8: why people there's this caution that a psychologists are also

841
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 8: making to say, well, you're smart watch could be problematic too,

842
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 8: because it's different from the ordinary watch. There's a lot

843
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 8: of stuff that's happening in it, and you might find

844
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 8: that you spend a lot of time looking at it,

845
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 8: and sometimes you've even created things to do because the

846
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 8: watch says, listen, there's this thing that you now need

847
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 8: to do in order for you to achieve.

848
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 3: That these things, we're supposed to be in charge of them,

849
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 3: and yet more and more they become in charge of us.

850
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at how much time people

851
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 3: spend on TikTok, for example, just flicking, just flicking. You

852
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 3: say them, come, come, get off, get off, they find

853
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 3: it really hard to do.

854
00:45:59,400 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 4: I find that.

855
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,280
Speaker 3: YouTube super millellia. And there is a reason I whispered

856
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:08,439
Speaker 3: that how do we make sure that we get control back?

857
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,000
Speaker 3: And if you give us a proper answer to this,

858
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 3: I'm going to nominate you for a Nobel prize in

859
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 3: some kind because it's so blinking difficult.

860
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 8: Well, with children, I suppose it's parents monitoring, and sometimes

861
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 8: actually you'd find that parents would say that a device

862
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:31,959
Speaker 8: is a good babysitter. It's not so, because a child

863
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:34,479
Speaker 8: is going to end up not wanting to move away

864
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:38,800
Speaker 8: from devices because you treated it as a babysitter of sorts.

865
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 8: And so it's with children, it's parents monitoring, and parents

866
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 8: sort of like creating a timetable or a schedule of

867
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 8: sorts where a child can move from one activity to

868
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 8: the next that also moves them away from the screen,

869
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 8: because what you sometimes find happening is that they might

870
00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 8: move away from the smartphone and then the suddenly looking

871
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 8: at the big screen on the wall. They could be

872
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:04,879
Speaker 8: looking at YouTube on the big screen on the wall.

873
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:07,239
Speaker 8: When they switch that off, they move in to the

874
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 8: next technology, or maybe they've connected a device to headphones.

875
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 8: You're saying, they don't have the device in front of them,

876
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,759
Speaker 8: but the headphones are still on and that's all technology.

877
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:18,720
Speaker 8: That and they and you find that they can't.

878
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 10: Have a life away from technology.

879
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,720
Speaker 8: So it's parents need to create some sort of schedule

880
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,800
Speaker 8: where they might They need to create activities in the

881
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 8: real world that children can be a part of, or

882
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 8: even read a book or some education.

883
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 10: That moves away from technology.

884
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 8: Now we are also then finding out that adults as

885
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 8: well are now phoning pray to this in terms of

886
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 8: them being addicted to this because if it doesn't happen,

887
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 8: these addictions I remember speaking to assist in they are

888
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 8: also So they ended up having to go to rehab

889
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 8: because his addiction was to that extent that he could

890
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 8: not move away from a device of any sort, and

891
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:02,919
Speaker 8: so parents needed to intervene take them to rehab where

892
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 8: you could learn how to move away from digital devices

893
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 8: or any form of technologies from time.

894
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 3: To time, or you could just organize to get together

895
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 3: with some friends, sit around a table, leave the devices

896
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 3: somewhere else, and you'll come away feeling happier, refreshed and

897
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 3: having broken your addiction, and.

898
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,439
Speaker 8: Maybe not even recording the stuff, because that's a part

899
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 8: of it where you'll find that activities that need to

900
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 8: be recorded, and so you still are on the device

901
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 8: recording what's happening offline.

902
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 3: Super Malela Zondie, thank you so much to talk about

903
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 3: our tech expert and something that I do. Sometimes if

904
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:41,240
Speaker 3: I'm with a group of friends, there'll be an argument

905
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 3: about something and I'll say.

906
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 4: No, one's allowed to google the answer.

907
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 3: It's much more fun to continue to have the argument

908
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:49,880
Speaker 3: and let the conversation go as it normally would have.

909
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:52,879
Speaker 3: You can google it tomorrow for goodness. Second, then tell

910
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 3: me I was right. Nineteen minutes after seven.

911
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 2: The Money Shows Small Business.

912
00:48:58,000 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 3: Focus Corbob Entrepreneurial Business Strategist with us now some Craberg

913
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 3: good evening, a happy new year.

914
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 4: We're still in the complement season.

915
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 3: We're talking about how to access new markets and particularly

916
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:15,240
Speaker 3: at the start of the year, and it can actually

917
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 3: be quite a daunting thing. You might be running a

918
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 3: small stall in one area, you go two blocks away,

919
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:22,839
Speaker 3: you need to access that market too.

920
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 8: Correct.

921
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 14: And I love how simple an example use because normally

922
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 14: when we talk to like small businesses and we talk

923
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 14: about growing market access, they're like, Okay, I need to

924
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 14: go to another province, I need to go to another country,

925
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 14: I need to go to another continent.

926
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 15: And actually, like you say, it's just expanding the business.

927
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 14: And I think also it's one of those terms that

928
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 14: people kind of try and confuse others.

929
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 15: With, but at the end of the day, what is

930
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:47,280
Speaker 15: market access.

931
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 14: Market access is purely your ability as a business to

932
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 14: put your product in front of the customer that is

933
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 14: likely to pay money for that product. And it's super

934
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,399
Speaker 14: important for ESAMESE because at the end of the day,

935
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 14: that's what we're all about, serving that customer. And if

936
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 14: one is unable to do that, it does very much

937
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 14: put a cap on how far your business can grow.

938
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:08,879
Speaker 10: Yeah.

939
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I mean people look for what they call market

940
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 3: access opportunities.

941
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 4: I don't even know what that is.

942
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 3: If it's macked me, if it slapped me in the face,

943
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 3: so probably sort of you know, a.

944
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,800
Speaker 14: Little bit computed, So I think it does smack a

945
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 14: few people in the face. Actually, I think, and I

946
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 14: ironically and unfortunately sometimes that I speak to a lot

947
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 14: of entrepreneurs and founders who say that they've gone and

948
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 14: gone onto a program because the program promised market access.

949
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 14: You know, often people think that the outcome of those programs,

950
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 14: often enterprise supply development programs, is going to be that

951
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 14: that corporate gives you a contract. And therefore, when you're

952
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 14: now being put through a program i e. Training and

953
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:56,760
Speaker 14: skills development and upliftment, you're like, hey, listen, stop wasting

954
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 14: my time, just give me the contract. So I think

955
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 14: it's important for people to be more discerning about what

956
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 14: does it mean. And I think if we break it down,

957
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 14: there's often steps or things that you need to have

958
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 14: ticked the boxes on in order for you to expand

959
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,840
Speaker 14: from a market access perspective. Sometimes there's regulatory stuff, as in,

960
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:17,359
Speaker 14: you have to be a registered company with CIPC, you've

961
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 14: got to be in good standing with SARS. You know,

962
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 14: for some businesses, you've got to have some sort of

963
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 14: ISO accreditation or some sort of insurance in place for

964
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 14: public liability. And that's key because that's kind of the

965
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:31,399
Speaker 14: door opener. And then beyond that You've got to also

966
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 14: go to be very very clear on what channels you're

967
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 14: using to reach your customer. Whether you're selling a product

968
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,240
Speaker 14: or a service, it's how do you reach that customer

969
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 14: To have that critical moment where your product or service

970
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 14: is right in front of a customer and the outcome

971
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 14: is a sale, do.

972
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 3: You have to make sure that your sort of home

973
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 3: market or the block where you started is nailed down first.

974
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 14: I've seen different success case studies. Some completely fall apart

975
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 14: when the first one wasn't nailed down, and some actually

976
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 14: continue to thrive and now there's two thriving places. I

977
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 14: think the differentiator is about the consistency, the diligence that

978
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 14: goes into even that first location that you set up.

979
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 15: So if you're going to walk away.

980
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 14: Especially if you're a founder and CEO walk away to

981
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 14: put all new focus on a new area of development

982
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 14: and expansion, you need to know that you've left behind

983
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 14: a rock solid structure, team, processes, systems that allow that

984
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 14: business to continue. And I think that's really the differentiator.

985
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 14: Rather than should we have gone for the second location,

986
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 14: it's more question of were we ready to go to

987
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 14: the second location?

988
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:46,800
Speaker 3: What do you need sort of in place before you

989
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 3: go and walk round the corner to the next block.

990
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:50,520
Speaker 3: What do you need to make sure that you have

991
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 3: sort of ready?

992
00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 14: So I think you've got to be transitioning. So I

993
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,880
Speaker 14: find oftentimes when we start a business, we're gung ho.

994
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:00,080
Speaker 14: We're a party of one at the beginning, and the

995
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 14: founders are hustler extraordinary, and they land all the sales.

996
00:53:03,760 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 14: Every customer probably knows you or you've had an interaction

997
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 14: with them at the beginning, and then you quickly start

998
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:12,840
Speaker 14: moving towards a place where that can no longer be

999
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:16,279
Speaker 14: the way that things function without you burning out right.

1000
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 14: And therefore you start to expand your operations, you expand

1001
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 14: your team, and you very much need to start developing

1002
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:24,360
Speaker 14: systems procedures to.

1003
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 15: Be in place that allow you not to be there.

1004
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:28,400
Speaker 14: Always say to a founder, if you've set up a

1005
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:30,919
Speaker 14: business and you can't even go on holiday, you haven't

1006
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 14: really set up a business.

1007
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:33,800
Speaker 15: You've set up a prison for yourself.

1008
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 14: And the question becomes, if you've ticked those things, are

1009
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 14: you then able to put hands off the table and

1010
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:40,799
Speaker 14: off the wheel and.

1011
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:42,279
Speaker 15: Things run as they should.

1012
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 14: There'll be mistakes, there'll be mishaps, but it shouldn't be

1013
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 14: anything catastrophic and then you kind of are ready to

1014
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:50,919
Speaker 14: move into the next environment. So and what that would

1015
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 14: mean is you've got to be clear on what is

1016
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 14: your growth path. Where are you expanding locally? Are you

1017
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 14: expanding from a channel perspective. You used to do face

1018
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:01,400
Speaker 14: to face brick and mortar stores, now you want to

1019
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:03,840
Speaker 14: do e commerce, or you've been doing e commerce, you

1020
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 14: want to do face you know, brick and mortar, which

1021
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 14: you've seen a couple of those kind of grow billy

1022
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:08,399
Speaker 14: up as well.

1023
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:10,800
Speaker 15: You've got to be clear what is that growth strategy.

1024
00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 14: Is it replicate more of the same or is it

1025
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 14: replicate and grow with a slight tweak on what you've

1026
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:16,759
Speaker 14: been doing.

1027
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 3: Are these particular avenues you can use to access new

1028
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 3: markets to sort of grow your business.

1029
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 14: So I think there are, depending on obviously the type

1030
00:54:25,080 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 14: of business and the industry, but I think some of

1031
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 14: the key things that one would need to do is effectively.

1032
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 14: Number one, I think people always underestimate the power of

1033
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 14: following their customer and referrals. So at the end of

1034
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 14: the day, if you're growing your business, you're trying to

1035
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 14: clone your customers, which means you've got to know them

1036
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 14: so well that you know where others that look like

1037
00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:49,280
Speaker 14: them are. Obviously, if you're a B to B business

1038
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 14: or you know, you're trying to get more business and

1039
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 14: corporate clients. And I think the other one for direct

1040
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 14: to consumer businesses is if you're trying to grow and

1041
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:02,240
Speaker 14: expand market access, partnerships becomes a key element because instead

1042
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 14: of chasing one by one by one consumer, you start

1043
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,840
Speaker 14: to find solutions where you can partner with another business

1044
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:12,239
Speaker 14: and they give you access to thousands or millions of

1045
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:15,640
Speaker 14: customers that actually come into the world of your service

1046
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:16,479
Speaker 14: or product offering.

1047
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:18,759
Speaker 3: Just because you're going to the next block doesn't mean

1048
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 3: you can't do it in the same way a multinational

1049
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 3: would and find a.

1050
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 14: Local correct, correct, one hundred percent correct here. And I

1051
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 14: think that's really the challenge, right We've got to keep

1052
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 14: growing and beginning of the year, everyone's like new Year,

1053
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:33,320
Speaker 14: New me, and I guess from a business perspective, we

1054
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 14: really need to ask ourselves what the equivalent of new

1055
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 14: me is for your small business in order for you

1056
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:40,680
Speaker 14: to continue to remain competitive.

1057
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 3: Song Corbert, good to see you, Thanks so much. Song Colbo.

1058
00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 3: Robert is the entrepreneur and business strategist The Money Show

1059
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 3: Investment School. Tonight's on investment School. We're discussing what I

1060
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:55,439
Speaker 3: suppose we should discuss an investment school every week, which

1061
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 3: is how to beat the market, beating the market versus

1062
00:55:58,280 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 3: riding the market?

1063
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 4: What were are supposed to?

1064
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 3: Put it another way, how do you make more money

1065
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:04,879
Speaker 3: than the other guy when the other guy is trying

1066
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:08,319
Speaker 3: to do exactly what you're trying to do. Lucky enough

1067
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:10,359
Speaker 3: to have in our studio tonight Claire Logi or say,

1068
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 3: the chief investment officer and principle at First Avenue Investment Management,

1069
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:18,360
Speaker 3: and doctor Mussat Malwandla, the co CIO of Differential Capital.

1070
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 3: He looks at alternative investments. Gentlemen, thanks so much. I

1071
00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 3: really appreciate you coming in.

1072
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 4: Creilo.

1073
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 3: Let's start with you, and I suppose we need to

1074
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 3: ask a question about what is a market efficiency? You're

1075
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:34,239
Speaker 3: trying to compete against everyone else? Right where do you

1076
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,360
Speaker 3: even begin? Because it's it's if it was easy, you know,

1077
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 3: AI would be doing it well.

1078
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 8: It is.

1079
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 16: Actually to some people, there's a school of thought that

1080
00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:47,880
Speaker 16: says it's that easy because share prices or market prices,

1081
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 16: as you see the stock price of Pick and pay

1082
00:56:49,760 --> 00:56:52,840
Speaker 16: and more worse. And you know apps, there's a school

1083
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 16: of thought that says those are very efficient, right, they

1084
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 16: are reflecting the true value of the underlying company.

1085
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 4: That they're not are wrong right The school i thought

1086
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 4: that says that, and that's called passive investing. Right.

1087
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:07,719
Speaker 16: So if you buy the cet tricks forty or any

1088
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:11,680
Speaker 16: other kind of index and you pay fifteen twenty basis points,

1089
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 16: it's about as cheap as that, and you basically ride

1090
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 16: that for a lifetime. You know, you're not beating the

1091
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:22,400
Speaker 16: index at that point. You are riding the index. And

1092
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 16: the big reason why people want to do that is

1093
00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 16: that it's very hard to beat the index.

1094
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 4: Number one.

1095
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 16: Number two is the index actually is probably the best

1096
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 16: wealth creating vehicle in the country, not just the country,

1097
00:57:36,880 --> 00:57:40,560
Speaker 16: in the world. Right, So it's not shabby to write

1098
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 16: an index. You're writing a tiger. Try to beat the tiger.

1099
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 4: So mussa.

1100
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 3: I mean, there are different levels of efficiency, and there

1101
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 3: are some things that some markets might miss. And the

1102
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 3: obvious South African example is people who bought Capitech when

1103
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:56,120
Speaker 3: it's listed.

1104
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 8: You know.

1105
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 3: The US example would be people who bought some of

1106
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 3: the text it shares when they listed, So there are

1107
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 3: things markets miss.

1108
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 4: Sure.

1109
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 17: Yeah, so there are actually three groups of things that

1110
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 17: you know, theorists. So people think about markets all the time.

1111
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 17: From a theoretical perspective, it's either they are missing price patterns.

1112
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 17: In otherwise there's information in the prices themselves that if exploit.

1113
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 17: So in other worse, if you model these prices properly,

1114
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 17: you can predict what's likely to happen to a particular company.

1115
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 17: And then are those who believe that it's public information

1116
00:58:30,560 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 17: about the company, so the fundamentals, the financial statements, that

1117
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 17: contains information that's often missed. And then there are those

1118
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 17: who believe that it's non public information, so information that's

1119
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,160
Speaker 17: only available to insider that's the only thing that's missed

1120
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,680
Speaker 17: by market. So now, depending on what you believe, you

1121
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 17: can then formulate an investment strategy. Now suppose you believe

1122
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:54,600
Speaker 17: that markets miss price patterns, right, so that there's patterns

1123
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 17: in the data itself that can be exploited. One of

1124
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:00,920
Speaker 17: the approaches you can then use is some called chatism

1125
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 17: or trend following or momentum. So price momentum, for instance,

1126
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 17: is the simplest. One of the simplest strategies is you

1127
00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 17: buy what worked yesterday. In otherwis what worked yesterday is

1128
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,439
Speaker 17: likely for you to work tomorrow and the day after

1129
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 17: and the day after. Now, the problem with that is,

1130
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 17: if it were that simple, somebody probably would have done

1131
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:21,720
Speaker 17: it already. If you had an Excel spreadsheet and some data,

1132
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 17: you can replicate that kind of strategy.

1133
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 4: So it's likely not to work.

1134
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 17: But that's one of the entry level strategies that you

1135
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:29,880
Speaker 17: can use that are then much more sophisticated strategies that

1136
00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 17: people have built that actually have generated a lot of

1137
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 17: alpha in the market. So that's you know, that's one

1138
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:36,400
Speaker 17: category of generating alpha.

1139
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:41,800
Speaker 3: You talk about patterns in prices, Clio, I just I

1140
00:59:41,920 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 3: just need a deeper understanding of what that is. Are

1141
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:47,080
Speaker 3: you looking at a price that's gone up ten percent

1142
00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 3: year on year for three years. Are you looking for

1143
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:51,480
Speaker 3: something a bit more sophisticated than that. Well, it's just

1144
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:53,360
Speaker 3: a statistical.

1145
00:59:54,200 --> 01:00:00,200
Speaker 16: Computation of how prices have evolved in the past a

1146
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 16: for instance, on a moving average basis. And you say, well,

1147
01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 16: that moving average is more representative over six months, ten months,

1148
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 16: more representative off the business, off of the business that

1149
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:16,680
Speaker 16: this company tends to do. Right, it's more representative of that.

1150
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 16: And so you say, I'm gonna look at historical statistical

1151
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:25,360
Speaker 16: patterns of information just in terms of the price movement alone,

1152
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,840
Speaker 16: not profits, not none of that, just price moving alone.

1153
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 16: How prices are distributed across highs and lows and mediums

1154
01:00:34,560 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 16: and so on on a daily basis, how much they

1155
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 16: go up, how much they go down, how much they

1156
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 16: stay flat, and so on. You just take and and

1157
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 16: and aggregation off those movements and you project them forward. Right,

1158
01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:49,919
Speaker 16: That's probably that's what AI is really good at looking

1159
01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:53,320
Speaker 16: at those patterns. And I always say to myself, there's

1160
01:00:53,360 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 16: no way AI is going to be good at this

1161
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:58,720
Speaker 16: when it's so good at this, good at predicting markets

1162
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 16: and winning. Because if it was good, an AI could

1163
01:01:01,840 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 16: sit here today and tell us which team is going

1164
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 16: to win the English Premier League, which team is going

1165
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:09,360
Speaker 16: to win the World Cup, just by looking at patterns

1166
01:01:09,400 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 16: of which teams are won of the past. But players change, attitudes,

1167
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:18,200
Speaker 16: change feelings, change, something happens on the day today, Donald

1168
01:01:18,200 --> 01:01:21,760
Speaker 16: Trump announces trek tomorrow, he's been getting into Venezuela. That's

1169
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 16: not in the price pattern, right, So that's what it means.

1170
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 4: Mosa.

1171
01:01:26,520 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 3: How hard is this to do. I mean, it's very competitive.

1172
01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 3: It is it easy to execute, So it turns out

1173
01:01:34,160 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 3: so to do it well. So there are funds that

1174
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:36,960
Speaker 3: have done this well.

1175
01:01:37,000 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 17: In fact, the best hedge fund in the world in

1176
01:01:39,200 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 17: history has done this, which is Renaissance Technologies. They've generated

1177
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:47,320
Speaker 17: something like sixty to seventy percent per annum for you know, decades.

1178
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:51,400
Speaker 17: Now in that case that employing physicists, you know, people

1179
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:53,960
Speaker 17: who could win the Nobel Prize or have won Fields

1180
01:01:54,360 --> 01:01:55,400
Speaker 17: medals in mathematics.

1181
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:56,640
Speaker 4: So the heavy duty work.

1182
01:01:57,360 --> 01:01:59,880
Speaker 17: If you are sitting in your you know, living room

1183
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 17: in your garage trying to it's it's very hard to do, right.

1184
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 17: The point is that if it was easy, you know,

1185
01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 17: somebody would have done it already.

1186
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:10,520
Speaker 4: And yeah, okay, clilo.

1187
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:13,920
Speaker 3: I mean, so, when you think that a market is

1188
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:16,760
Speaker 3: missing a pattern in prices, how do you try and

1189
01:02:16,880 --> 01:02:19,760
Speaker 3: then so let me sort of put this another way.

1190
01:02:19,800 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 3: When you think that when you're trying to compete on insights,

1191
01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:26,880
Speaker 3: so you're seeing something that other people are not seeing

1192
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:31,000
Speaker 3: in information that is publicly available, how do you try

1193
01:02:31,080 --> 01:02:36,360
Speaker 3: and do that because you're essentially betting your brain against

1194
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:38,040
Speaker 3: all of the other brains. I mean this is why

1195
01:02:38,120 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 3: investing is fun.

1196
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:43,680
Speaker 16: So just wagging the four quadrants, right, it's what do

1197
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:47,320
Speaker 16: I know that everyone else also knows?

1198
01:02:48,200 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 4: Right now?

1199
01:02:48,680 --> 01:02:50,800
Speaker 16: When I say no, what everyone knows is not the

1200
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:54,120
Speaker 16: price patterns? What do I know about this business that

1201
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:58,080
Speaker 16: everyone else knows about the business? Fundamentally? Right, if you

1202
01:02:58,160 --> 01:02:59,800
Speaker 16: know the same thing as everybody else, there's no way

1203
01:02:59,800 --> 01:03:01,800
Speaker 16: you're win and there's no way they win that you

1204
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 16: get have average outcomes.

1205
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 12: Right.

1206
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:07,560
Speaker 16: The second quadron is what do other people know that

1207
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 16: I don't know? At that point you lose, right. What

1208
01:03:13,320 --> 01:03:16,440
Speaker 16: you really want to be is what you know that

1209
01:03:17,040 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 16: no one else knows the market doesn't know. Right, That's

1210
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 16: where you win. It's called stock picking success.

1211
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:23,520
Speaker 4: Right.

1212
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 16: But then there's a fourth quadron, which is really what

1213
01:03:26,960 --> 01:03:31,200
Speaker 16: risk tends to merge out of, which is what Donald

1214
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 16: Rumsfeld called the unknown unknowns. Nobody knows anything, right, We

1215
01:03:36,640 --> 01:03:39,320
Speaker 16: all don't know, and we all don't know that April

1216
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:41,640
Speaker 16: second is going to happen in terms. You know, terrorist

1217
01:03:41,640 --> 01:03:44,520
Speaker 16: skatet announced. We all don't know something. They're gonna be

1218
01:03:44,520 --> 01:03:46,480
Speaker 16: intervention with the fat we all, we all don't know

1219
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:51,480
Speaker 16: anything that we rush. You're gonna invade Ukraine? Okay, and

1220
01:03:51,680 --> 01:03:55,440
Speaker 16: I'll tell you what's interesting is if you just limit

1221
01:03:55,520 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 16: the exercise to what you know, what other people don't know,

1222
01:03:58,200 --> 01:04:02,480
Speaker 16: or vice versa. Right, you can pick some really good companies.

1223
01:04:02,520 --> 01:04:06,840
Speaker 16: You can have moderate success. Okay, you want to say

1224
01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:09,320
Speaker 16: modest success. You can beat the market fifty five to

1225
01:04:09,400 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 16: sixty percent of the time, but all of that can

1226
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:15,200
Speaker 16: be wiped out, can be wiped out by what we

1227
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:18,520
Speaker 16: see now, which is a breakdown. When I say while

1228
01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:21,920
Speaker 16: we're see not by choke points. Choke points are like

1229
01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:25,760
Speaker 16: now a breakdown in the world trade and world security

1230
01:04:25,840 --> 01:04:30,120
Speaker 16: system that leads to gold outperforming every asset class. And

1231
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:33,280
Speaker 16: if you don't have gold, however well you've done in

1232
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:35,560
Speaker 16: the past, if you don't have it in your portfolio,

1233
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:39,640
Speaker 16: you've probably lost the last five, six, seven years worth

1234
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:40,520
Speaker 16: off returns.

1235
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:43,520
Speaker 4: The market has beaten you by that much. Just think

1236
01:04:43,560 --> 01:04:43,840
Speaker 4: about it.

1237
01:04:44,000 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 16: Last year, that precious metal sector went up one hundred

1238
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 16: and forty four percent. I think the financials or industrial

1239
01:04:52,280 --> 01:04:54,440
Speaker 16: sector went up twenty percent and thirty percent.

1240
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:56,080
Speaker 4: You really fell behind.

1241
01:04:56,880 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 16: So the way to invest is certainly and great companies,

1242
01:05:01,400 --> 01:05:04,040
Speaker 16: peck them right, keep an eye on them, evolve your

1243
01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:07,600
Speaker 16: thoughts as they evolve their strategies well, but be very

1244
01:05:07,880 --> 01:05:13,840
Speaker 16: very cognizant of what they call tail risks that can

1245
01:05:14,040 --> 01:05:19,920
Speaker 16: upend the best laid plans and take into account those risks.

1246
01:05:20,000 --> 01:05:23,080
Speaker 16: And you do that sometimes by having investments that seem

1247
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 16: to contradict each other, like, for instance, have Capitech, but

1248
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:27,320
Speaker 16: then go and have a golf stock.

1249
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:30,520
Speaker 4: But the two are not related, Yes, because risks are

1250
01:05:30,560 --> 01:05:31,439
Speaker 4: not related.

1251
01:05:32,800 --> 01:05:35,560
Speaker 3: Most. I mean, are there some examples of how you

1252
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:38,800
Speaker 3: can have genuine knowledge that's in the public domain and

1253
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:40,120
Speaker 3: still invest better than others.

1254
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:45,120
Speaker 17: Yeah, So I think specifically for private investor, regular people

1255
01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:48,800
Speaker 17: on the street who don't invest professionally, they actually are.

1256
01:05:48,880 --> 01:05:54,000
Speaker 17: In fact, they might have certain edges that most professional

1257
01:05:54,120 --> 01:05:56,920
Speaker 17: investors don't. Let's take a practical example. One of the

1258
01:05:57,000 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 17: companies I used to cover before it was listed a

1259
01:05:59,200 --> 01:06:01,640
Speaker 17: dealist that is at cog Ingram. They produce things like

1260
01:06:01,720 --> 01:06:07,400
Speaker 17: Panado Alcofilex allergics. Now, if you're a professional doctor medical doctor,

1261
01:06:08,480 --> 01:06:11,640
Speaker 17: you have a front row seat at what's likely to

1262
01:06:11,680 --> 01:06:14,320
Speaker 17: happen to the flu season. The flu season, how severe,

1263
01:06:14,400 --> 01:06:17,400
Speaker 17: it is a good predictor for the demand in that

1264
01:06:17,520 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 17: particular product. So if you are a medical doctor, that's

1265
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:24,640
Speaker 17: one of the insights, things that you are likely to

1266
01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 17: be better at picking up than a CFA, a CA.

1267
01:06:27,360 --> 01:06:30,200
Speaker 17: You know, a professional investor, was you know, well credentialed.

1268
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 17: Another thing you can do better is figuring out what

1269
01:06:33,040 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 17: occupants the race that hospitals are. And similarly, suppose you

1270
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:41,560
Speaker 17: are In fact, what happened after COVID is what was

1271
01:06:41,640 --> 01:06:44,400
Speaker 17: the is now known as the home improvement boom. So

1272
01:06:44,720 --> 01:06:48,760
Speaker 17: companies like if you remember, like there's you know, cash

1273
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:50,840
Speaker 17: bills and so on, did really well. A lot of

1274
01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:53,120
Speaker 17: us didn't see it coming right because we don't work

1275
01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 17: with paint and so so suppose you are in building

1276
01:06:55,600 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 17: in construction, you would have seen, well, why are people

1277
01:06:58,440 --> 01:07:01,000
Speaker 17: buying so much paint? Why am I so busy as

1278
01:07:01,040 --> 01:07:04,400
Speaker 17: a plumber? That's an early warning signal that maybe there's

1279
01:07:04,440 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 17: a trend in here that people have not picked up. Now,

1280
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:08,880
Speaker 17: if you're a private investor, that's usually the beginning of

1281
01:07:08,920 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 17: the journey. Now you have to worry about the unknown unknowns,

1282
01:07:11,400 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 17: you know, the things that could go really wrong, because

1283
01:07:14,040 --> 01:07:16,320
Speaker 17: usually that's signal. So, for instance, if you go back

1284
01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:19,560
Speaker 17: to the Paranado example, how big is Panado in the

1285
01:07:19,640 --> 01:07:22,160
Speaker 17: life of at colk Ingram, it's big, but not that big?

1286
01:07:22,400 --> 01:07:24,240
Speaker 4: So how you know? So? So it's a signal, but

1287
01:07:24,360 --> 01:07:26,520
Speaker 4: you still need to do the work. How good is management?

1288
01:07:26,840 --> 01:07:27,000
Speaker 4: You know?

1289
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:29,600
Speaker 17: How LeVert is this company? Does it have enough free

1290
01:07:29,680 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 17: cash flow? You know what happens if rates go up

1291
01:07:32,800 --> 01:07:34,840
Speaker 17: and down? So these are practical things that you still

1292
01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:38,200
Speaker 17: need to do, but you at least have an advantage

1293
01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:40,400
Speaker 17: in that you have certain types of information that most

1294
01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:41,400
Speaker 17: people are locked out of.

1295
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:43,240
Speaker 4: And that's really the advantage here.

1296
01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:47,720
Speaker 3: You're with investment school on The Money Show tonight, how

1297
01:07:47,800 --> 01:07:51,080
Speaker 3: to Beat the Market Logan Yours's chief investment officer at

1298
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:55,000
Speaker 3: First Avenue Investment Management, Doctor Musumo Wandless the co chief

1299
01:07:55,040 --> 01:07:56,840
Speaker 3: investment Office Differential Capital.

1300
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 4: It's nine minute state the.

1301
01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:02,560
Speaker 12: Money Show Stephen Curtis is brought to you by apps

1302
01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:06,200
Speaker 12: A cib A Pan African Bank invested in your story

1303
01:08:06,480 --> 01:08:10,360
Speaker 12: and the potential it can unlock because your story matters

1304
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 12: as as the raster fsp.

1305
01:08:13,680 --> 01:08:16,360
Speaker 2: The Money Show Investment schools sex.

1306
01:08:16,320 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 3: Minutes say the time talking about how to beat the

1307
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:22,280
Speaker 3: market versus riding the market with fellow giose and Mum

1308
01:08:22,520 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 3: Wandler Clo is an idea I think in it partly

1309
01:08:27,080 --> 01:08:30,400
Speaker 3: because of what we watch on TV that people's real

1310
01:08:30,479 --> 01:08:33,720
Speaker 3: insights come from inside information or they see something that

1311
01:08:34,160 --> 01:08:37,080
Speaker 3: gives them an edge. I mean, I can't imagine that

1312
01:08:37,960 --> 01:08:40,439
Speaker 3: inside information really helps you for long in this game.

1313
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 4: Not for long.

1314
01:08:41,760 --> 01:08:46,639
Speaker 16: It's it's not sustainable. If also just bear in mind

1315
01:08:47,240 --> 01:08:50,519
Speaker 16: the reason you want to invest is you want to

1316
01:08:50,560 --> 01:08:53,880
Speaker 16: create wealth of the long term. Inside information tends to

1317
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:59,679
Speaker 16: have a very short shelf life. It's expiry is really

1318
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:03,479
Speaker 16: a few days. So now there are people that take

1319
01:09:03,560 --> 01:09:06,080
Speaker 16: real good advantage of it. So for instance, members of Congress,

1320
01:09:06,680 --> 01:09:09,040
Speaker 16: they get to know our companies are on a benefit

1321
01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:11,800
Speaker 16: from legislation, which tends to be pretty transformative.

1322
01:09:12,200 --> 01:09:15,240
Speaker 4: So people like Nancy Pelosi they're very wroth because of that. Right.

1323
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:18,280
Speaker 16: They look at national secuity plans and they know the

1324
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:21,400
Speaker 16: discussions with you know, how Infila's going to benefit from this.

1325
01:09:21,840 --> 01:09:24,479
Speaker 4: But those are very privileged people. You are not like them.

1326
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:27,840
Speaker 4: So if somebody whispers something to you say thank you,

1327
01:09:27,920 --> 01:09:28,320
Speaker 4: but no.

1328
01:09:28,439 --> 01:09:33,200
Speaker 3: Thanks, it was like, are they some legal ways of

1329
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:35,920
Speaker 3: kind of understanding what the bosses of a company know

1330
01:09:36,160 --> 01:09:38,439
Speaker 3: and what they're thinking? And I mean every day on

1331
01:09:38,520 --> 01:09:42,519
Speaker 3: the jacu'll have you know, what's the phrase on sends

1332
01:09:43,280 --> 01:09:46,000
Speaker 3: share purchases by or whatever it is, if you know

1333
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:47,120
Speaker 3: what I mean the disclosures.

1334
01:09:47,520 --> 01:09:50,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, so it happens to be a good signal.

1335
01:09:50,120 --> 01:09:52,240
Speaker 17: So the idea here is that you know, the management

1336
01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:55,080
Speaker 17: teams of a company usually have insight infomore, it's the

1337
01:09:55,120 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 17: better sense of other company works. Now, if they are buying,

1338
01:09:59,479 --> 01:10:02,439
Speaker 17: it's usually if they're buying a lot in their own stock,

1339
01:10:02,479 --> 01:10:05,880
Speaker 17: it's usually a positive, especially if they're selling a lot.

1340
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:07,640
Speaker 4: If they sell a lot all of a sudden.

1341
01:10:07,520 --> 01:10:09,920
Speaker 17: Either the valuation could be very high, or the fortunes

1342
01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:13,040
Speaker 17: of the company might not be as attractive, or they

1343
01:10:13,080 --> 01:10:15,639
Speaker 17: could just be selling for text reasons or to buy

1344
01:10:15,640 --> 01:10:17,479
Speaker 17: a new house. So you have to use that kind

1345
01:10:17,479 --> 01:10:20,719
Speaker 17: of information with care. But it you know, some data

1346
01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:21,640
Speaker 17: is behind that.

1347
01:10:21,800 --> 01:10:24,840
Speaker 3: Don't they also buy their stock and a crisis because

1348
01:10:24,920 --> 01:10:27,240
Speaker 3: they're trying to show the market that they're not worried.

1349
01:10:27,439 --> 01:10:30,879
Speaker 17: Yeah, so as a signal of confidence, false or positive.

1350
01:10:31,320 --> 01:10:32,000
Speaker 4: So it is.

1351
01:10:32,520 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 17: Now it's a data point that at least hints. It's

1352
01:10:35,320 --> 01:10:37,080
Speaker 17: a signal that you can use to at least infer

1353
01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:40,120
Speaker 17: what's happening on the inside. And then some people do

1354
01:10:40,240 --> 01:10:41,639
Speaker 17: follow that particular strategy.

1355
01:10:42,360 --> 01:10:45,080
Speaker 3: So I am old enough to know that some people,

1356
01:10:45,360 --> 01:10:49,000
Speaker 3: particularly men, just want to prove they're cleverer than other people, right,

1357
01:10:49,080 --> 01:10:50,800
Speaker 3: That's all they want to do, and so they work

1358
01:10:50,920 --> 01:10:53,599
Speaker 3: very hard at beating the market. Most of us are

1359
01:10:53,640 --> 01:10:56,320
Speaker 3: more rational than that and are married, and so all

1360
01:10:56,400 --> 01:10:59,160
Speaker 3: we really want to do is make sure that we

1361
01:10:59,280 --> 01:11:02,559
Speaker 3: make enough well that we make it efficiently and easily.

1362
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:07,920
Speaker 3: Now that word efficiently, hell, it would make me suggest Actually,

1363
01:11:08,479 --> 01:11:10,599
Speaker 3: I'm not going to try that hard to beat the market.

1364
01:11:10,840 --> 01:11:12,760
Speaker 3: I know how clever I am, and who's cleverer than

1365
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:15,000
Speaker 3: me and who and who isn't? But I have an idea,

1366
01:11:15,320 --> 01:11:16,680
Speaker 3: and so I'm going to do something else. So if

1367
01:11:16,680 --> 01:11:18,479
Speaker 3: I've decided I'm not going to try and beat the market,

1368
01:11:18,560 --> 01:11:20,600
Speaker 3: what's the best way to make as much money.

1369
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:22,479
Speaker 4: Or to grow my wealth by as much as possible.

1370
01:11:22,640 --> 01:11:24,800
Speaker 16: Well, if you're not going to beat the market, then

1371
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:27,599
Speaker 16: you're going to ride the market through a passive product.

1372
01:11:28,040 --> 01:11:30,840
Speaker 16: Right now, you're going to buy the RSI forty or

1373
01:11:31,600 --> 01:11:35,240
Speaker 16: just pick an index that represents well, that's probably the

1374
01:11:35,280 --> 01:11:38,200
Speaker 16: best performing index, and that's the ausie or the capsulicks,

1375
01:11:38,400 --> 01:11:40,519
Speaker 16: you know, as I used to call it. It's not

1376
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:44,160
Speaker 16: a shameful strategy at all. By the way to beat

1377
01:11:44,200 --> 01:11:46,519
Speaker 16: the market. You also have to find someone who's good

1378
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:49,200
Speaker 16: enough to do that. Now, over the long term, even

1379
01:11:49,320 --> 01:11:53,280
Speaker 16: professional investors, I think about fifteen percent of them beat

1380
01:11:53,320 --> 01:11:56,920
Speaker 16: the market, right, So this is a hard, hard job.

1381
01:11:57,560 --> 01:11:58,679
Speaker 4: It's very very difficult.

1382
01:11:58,800 --> 01:12:02,559
Speaker 16: It's it's as difficult as when advocates show up at

1383
01:12:02,600 --> 01:12:06,920
Speaker 16: the Supreme Court consultational court and argue the case. Their

1384
01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:10,640
Speaker 16: one rate is very low. Yeah, right, but it's transformative

1385
01:12:10,680 --> 01:12:13,559
Speaker 16: when it happens, and that's what makes justice really worthwhile.

1386
01:12:13,880 --> 01:12:16,200
Speaker 16: That's what makes investing really worthwhile. Is if you can

1387
01:12:16,280 --> 01:12:19,360
Speaker 16: find someone that can do that, it's worth it most.

1388
01:12:19,880 --> 01:12:21,960
Speaker 3: So you need to sort of find out what age

1389
01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:24,120
Speaker 3: the manager hasn't and do you need to maybe also

1390
01:12:24,200 --> 01:12:26,240
Speaker 3: look at sort of funds of funds because those try

1391
01:12:26,280 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 3: and even things out.

1392
01:12:27,640 --> 01:12:29,880
Speaker 17: Sure, So I think the first thing is either look

1393
01:12:29,920 --> 01:12:32,960
Speaker 17: at a part passive before you think about investing on

1394
01:12:33,080 --> 01:12:36,160
Speaker 17: your own, which is really an adacious thing to do

1395
01:12:36,200 --> 01:12:39,360
Speaker 17: when you consider how many investment professionals there are. If

1396
01:12:39,439 --> 01:12:41,760
Speaker 17: that is too vanilla for you, then you think of

1397
01:12:41,920 --> 01:12:44,360
Speaker 17: about an active fund you know, and I said manager,

1398
01:12:44,400 --> 01:12:45,280
Speaker 17: and then you have to think.

1399
01:12:45,120 --> 01:12:46,920
Speaker 4: About whether they're good at what they do.

1400
01:12:48,120 --> 01:12:50,799
Speaker 17: If that doesn't work, then you go to a multi manager,

1401
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:53,960
Speaker 17: a DFM, a fund of funds. Now their job is

1402
01:12:54,240 --> 01:12:57,720
Speaker 17: exactly to figure out who's the best manager, which kind

1403
01:12:57,760 --> 01:13:00,640
Speaker 17: of investment strategy is likely to work better in this

1404
01:13:00,840 --> 01:13:04,040
Speaker 17: kind of market, and how do you blend different managers together.

1405
01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:06,479
Speaker 3: Doctor mussaml Wandler, thank you so much for coming in.

1406
01:13:06,560 --> 01:13:08,799
Speaker 3: Good to see you again. The co chief Investment Officer

1407
01:13:08,840 --> 01:13:12,400
Speaker 3: of Differential Capital, Clailgi your ses in a while, the

1408
01:13:12,520 --> 01:13:16,240
Speaker 3: Chief investment Officer and principal at First Avenue Investment Management.

1409
01:13:16,920 --> 01:13:19,400
Speaker 12: The Money Show with Stephen Quetez is brought to you

1410
01:13:19,640 --> 01:13:23,080
Speaker 12: by abs as cib, a Pan African bank invested in

1411
01:13:23,200 --> 01:13:26,599
Speaker 12: your story and the potential it can unlock because your

1412
01:13:26,680 --> 01:13:27,960
Speaker 12: story matters.

1413
01:13:28,400 --> 01:13:31,200
Speaker 4: APPS is a registered FSP on the US markets.

1414
01:13:31,280 --> 01:13:33,640
Speaker 3: Right now, the Dow jones are three quarters of a

1415
01:13:33,680 --> 01:13:35,600
Speaker 3: percent of nastack up point eight four v s and

1416
01:13:35,640 --> 01:13:38,160
Speaker 3: P five hundred up point sixty two. Thanks I think

1417
01:13:38,520 --> 01:13:41,200
Speaker 3: to TSMC. We're back tomorrow. Good evening, eight o'clock