1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Drive with Africa Milani in for John Maatham on katalk Well. 2 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:09,480 Speaker 1: Pakistan's leadership is trying to keep alive the prospect of 3 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,120 Speaker 1: a diplomatic breakthrough in the conflict between the United States, Israel, 4 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:17,319 Speaker 1: and Iran. That's according to a Pakistani security source. The 5 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,600 Speaker 1: source adding that an attack early on Tuesday on vital 6 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:24,319 Speaker 1: infrastructure in Saudi Arabia may have diminished the chances of 7 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 1: a back breakthrough, saying the entire Pakistan civil military leadership 8 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,599 Speaker 1: is working hard to make a breakthrough happen, but they 9 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: are now concerns after Saudi Arabia was targeted that this 10 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: could compromise the entire process. Earlier, the US struck military 11 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: targets on Iran Strategic Cach Island overnight. That's according to 12 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:46,840 Speaker 1: a US and a White House official. The strikes did 13 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: not target oil facilities. Attacks have been carried out on 14 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: civilian infrastructure across Iran, including railway lines and roads, according 15 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: to Iranian media, strikes by the US and Israel severely 16 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: damaging a cinem in central Tehran earlier today as well. 17 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,319 Speaker 1: Joining me now is a distinguished Fellow with the German 18 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: Marshall Fund of the US in Brussels. That's Ian lesser Ian. 19 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: We are counting ours to the deadline that has been 20 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: pronounced by US President Donald Trump. What is a likelihood 21 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: of us coming out with an agreement ahead of that deadline? 22 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 2: Good afternoon, Good afternoon, and thanks very much for the 23 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 2: invitation to be with you again. Well, you know, I 24 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 2: one would hope that the likelihood is there, but I'm 25 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 2: really not that optimistic, you know, Honestly, I think at 26 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 2: this point it has less to do with whatever Pakistan 27 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 2: or other interlocutors might be able to do. Then simply 28 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 2: the logic coming from the White House. You know, how 29 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 2: far are they willing to push this? Are they willing 30 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 2: to in essence, declare victory. The President had an opportunity 31 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 2: to do this yesterday, well on numerous occasions actually when 32 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: he's spoken to the public, into the press, and he 33 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 2: chose not to do that. So it's very difficult to say, 34 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 2: especially given today these very very striking, kind of inflammatory 35 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 2: threats coming from President Trump, this is really being pushed 36 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 2: to the edge. 37 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 1: In fact, he wrote on truth Social not too long ago, 38 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought 39 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: back again. I don't want that to happen, but it 40 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: probably will. However, now that we have complete and total 41 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: regime change, where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, 42 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: maybe something revolutionary, wonderful can happen. Who knows mixed messaging there, Yan. 43 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 2: Well, that's one way to put it. You know, it's 44 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 2: very difficult. It's been very difficult even from the beginning 45 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 2: to know whether there are any serious negotiations going on. You know. Again, 46 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 2: I think the key variable here is what the administration 47 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 2: at this point is willing to accept as a way 48 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 2: of getting out of the conflict. And of course on 49 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 2: the Iranian side, there are choices to be made. They 50 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 2: have some you know, minimum demands. Apparently the Iranian side 51 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 2: broadly speaking, has responded to the overtures that have been 52 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 2: made by saying, you know, look, we're not just looking 53 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 2: for a cease fire. We're looking for, you know, a 54 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 2: longer term end to this confrontation, you know, a non 55 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: aggression treaty of some kind in exchange for opening up 56 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 2: reopening the straight of horm moves. And then I suppose 57 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 2: whatever might be able to be done on the nuclear 58 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 2: front to be negotiated later on. But there the truth 59 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 2: is that there is something in what President Trump says 60 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 2: when he says that the regime, it's not that there's 61 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 2: been regime changed, it's just that the regime has changed. 62 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 2: There are fewer interlocutters at a senior level, and so 63 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 2: who is the White House or indeed those who are 64 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 2: trying to help, like Pakistan, who are they talking to. 65 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: It's very unclear that I suppose intervention from Islamabad seems 66 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: to be directed to the US and Iran. Israel is 67 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 1: an important partner in this conflict that they warned the 68 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: people of Iran earlier today via x not to use 69 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: trains and be near railway liance because they are striking, 70 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 1: what they say, routes that are used by the Revolutionary Guard. 71 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:24,919 Speaker 1: How important a player is Israel in whatever negotiated peace 72 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: agreement between the US and Iran? 73 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 2: Do you think, well, Israel clearly is deeply involved in 74 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 2: the conflict, is an important player, but not in a 75 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 2: sense in the same league either politically or operationally as 76 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 2: the United States. At this point, you know Israel will 77 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 2: have its preferences, but unless they accord in some sense 78 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 2: with what President Trump and the White House would like 79 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 2: to do, I doubt it's going to actually unfold that 80 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 2: way and for others, you know, there are many different 81 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 2: things at stake. I mean, you were talking earlier about 82 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 2: Pakistan and its role, you know, sounds very close relationship 83 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 2: now with Saudi Arabia. The fact that Saudi Arabia was 84 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 2: targeted again the other day in a very destructive way 85 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 2: has got to also change thinking on the Pakistani side. 86 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 2: But there are a lot of other calculations like this 87 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 2: going on right around the region. Lots of stakes in play. 88 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 2: Decisions really are to be made in Washington. 89 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 1: A new draft of a United Nations Security Council resolution 90 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 1: aimed at protecting shipping in the Strait of Homu's has 91 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 1: dropped language around the possible use of force in the 92 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: hope that it won't be vetoed. That's according to a 93 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: golf source familiar with the matter. The United Nations unfortunately 94 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: seems to be a toothless organization in trying to bring 95 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 1: about a solution here. 96 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 2: You know, it's I think it's clear politically at the 97 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 2: United Nations, but it's also clear from the discussions that 98 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,600 Speaker 2: have gone on among European allies and others, some in Asia, 99 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: that it's much easier to contemplate the deployment of forces 100 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 2: to guarantee safe passage in and around the straight upform 101 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 2: moves once hostilities are over. What is very difficult is 102 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 2: to get nations to agree on action in the middle 103 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 2: of a war to put forces in harms way, but 104 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 2: also to do things that in many cases countries either 105 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 2: view as contrary to international law or, certainly for China 106 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 2: and for Russia's, contrary to their strategic interest. So it's 107 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 2: very difficult to get a Security Council resolution of that 108 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 2: kind past, but clearly the prospects for doing that will 109 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 2: be better if it doesn't make reference to any kind 110 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 2: of preemptive offensive military operation to open the straits. 111 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: Do we live in hope though, because with the deadline 112 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 1: fast approaching, what we are seeing from reports is that 113 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: there's engagement between the US and Iran, They are engaging 114 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: in last ditch negotiations ahead of that deadline. Do we 115 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:56,799 Speaker 1: live in hope? 116 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 2: Well, I think we need to. I think we all 117 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:03,799 Speaker 2: need to, and you know, honestly, I have to hope 118 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:06,280 Speaker 2: that at the end of the day, you know, President 119 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 2: Trump too is looking for an exit from this. Yes, 120 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 2: an operational success on many levels, but politically very uncertain, 121 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: many mixed signals, and strategically doubtful. I think that would 122 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,239 Speaker 2: be a fair assessment of where we are at the moment, 123 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 2: not to mention the human cost and the ongoing economic costs. 124 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 2: So I think, you know, both sides in a sense 125 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 2: are looking for an exit, but that doesn't necessarily mean 126 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 2: that one will be found. But let's stay. 127 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:34,679 Speaker 1: Hopeful, because there really doesn't appear to be a neat 128 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: exit for anyone here, actually not for the US, certainly 129 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: not for Israel. And one would argue Iran didn't ask 130 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: for this to happen in the first place, but there 131 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be a neat exit for them either 132 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: from this conflict. 133 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,679 Speaker 2: No, there really, there really isn't a neat exit, which 134 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 2: you know begs the question obviously of why this conflict 135 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 2: in the first place. There are issues here. They're not 136 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,679 Speaker 2: knew about safe passage, about energy security, about Iran's nuclear program, 137 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 2: missile proliferation, all of those things. Support for terrorism in 138 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 2: the region, much of it very real, but what do 139 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 2: you do about it? And having embarked on this very 140 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 2: large scale operation, I think you know, conflicts of this 141 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 2: contake on dynamics of their own They're very difficult to control, 142 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 2: even if there's a will to try to keep them limited. 143 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 2: You know, Iran I think would in many ways would 144 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 2: see it as a victory to simply survive, and it 145 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 2: would of course create an open account with them in 146 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 2: terms of things that they might do globally in the 147 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,439 Speaker 2: years to come. I think the administration is very well 148 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 2: aware of that in Washington, and they have to be 149 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 2: looking over their shoulder at midterm elections coming up, you know, 150 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 2: in much less than a year in the United States. 151 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 2: This is an unpopular war with the population as a whole. 152 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:56,079 Speaker 2: Somewhat more popular obviously with Republicans than Democrats, but basically 153 00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 2: not a hugely popular endeavor, and he has to be 154 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 2: thinking about that. So, I mean, the hopeful answer is 155 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 2: that perhaps President Trump is issuing these striking threats in 156 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 2: a way of being able to sort of set us 157 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 2: all up for something where he can declare victory and 158 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 2: at least provide a path out of this. But Iran 159 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 2: also will obviously have to do something. But again, who 160 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,559 Speaker 2: are they talking to, are they credible? Can they actually 161 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:25,959 Speaker 2: deliver all? Very unclear? 162 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: Well, we'll find out in nine and a half hours, 163 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: Thank you, very much ian Ian. Lesser is a Distinguished 164 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:35,719 Speaker 1: Fellow for the German Marshall Fund at the US in Brussels, 165 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: reflecting of course, on the conflict in the Middle East.