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Speaker 1: And we got out to our colleagues at Deutsche VLLA

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Speaker 1: in Berlin. It's a regular Friday interaction just after ten o'clock. Again,

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Speaker 1: I suggest that it's an important election for Europe. It's

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Speaker 1: taking place the Hungarian parliamentary elections, and Paul suggests Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Victor Auburn and he's Fidead's party ein Danjov losing

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Speaker 1: after sixteen years in power, and indeed he has been

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Speaker 1: a powerful man.

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Speaker 2: So for more on that and what it means.

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Speaker 1: Arthur Sullivan joins us a correspondent with our partners at

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Speaker 1: Deutsche Vala in Berlin.

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Speaker 2: Welcome Arthur, great to have you, Great to be here.

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Speaker 1: Clarence as always, Okay, so tell us why this election, Matt,

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Speaker 1: is so much for Europe.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So, at first Lance, you know, you might wonder at

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Speaker 3: that because Hungary is not a big country even in

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Speaker 3: European terms, you know, let alone global terms. But this

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Speaker 3: election really does have a lot of significance and symbolic

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Speaker 3: significance because of the kind of politics that Victor Orban

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Speaker 3: who's been the prime minister since twenty ten, has come

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Speaker 3: to represent, and also because of the very real prospect

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Speaker 3: that he could actually be defeated. So it may be

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Speaker 3: a bit of a cliche to say it, but for

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Speaker 3: a lot of people in Hungary and beyond, it seems

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Speaker 3: to be democracy and a lot of those maybe old

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Speaker 3: fashioned values that seem to be going out of fashion, democracy,

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Speaker 3: rule of law, multilateral order, those kind of things seem

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Speaker 3: to be on the ballot here. So Orban is a

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Speaker 3: global symbol at this stage of so called national conservative movements.

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Speaker 3: You know, we know he's a very close ally of

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Speaker 3: US President Donald Trump, and he has many admirers in

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Speaker 3: other sort of right wing like minded movements around the world.

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Speaker 3: But during his sixteen years in charge of Hungary, he

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Speaker 3: has really stretched the meaning of democracy to its limits,

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Speaker 3: and according to his many crickets critics, sorry, he has

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Speaker 3: lurched into authoritarianism, cronyism, and corruption. He has packed the

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Speaker 3: courts with loyalists. He has changed the constitution to suit

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Speaker 3: his own needs. He's limited gay rights, he has curtailed

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Speaker 3: his opponents, and he has really put serious curbs on

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Speaker 3: the media. Now it's not just me saying this, clarrence,

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Speaker 3: it's not my opinion. I mean, according to the World

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Speaker 3: Banks governance measures, which look at the way different countries

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Speaker 3: perform in terms of key metrics with regard to democracy.

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Speaker 3: Since Orban has been in power, Hungary has been performing

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Speaker 3: particularly poorly in things like corruption regulation, rule of law,

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Speaker 3: accountability of institutions. I think one very simple example as

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Speaker 3: well which points to the kind of corruption at the

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Speaker 3: core of Hungary under Orban. His childhood friend who he

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Speaker 3: grew up with in a small village in Hungary is

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Speaker 3: now one of the richest men in the country. And

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Speaker 3: before Orban came to power, he was struggling with a

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Speaker 3: company that worked in gas fitting.

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Speaker 2: He was really struggling to make a ends meet.

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Speaker 3: Now he's a multi billionaire, So that gives you an

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Speaker 3: indication of the kind of cronyism that's been at the

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Speaker 3: core of Orban's governance. He also has been a thorn

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Speaker 3: in the side of the EU. He has regularly used

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Speaker 3: Hungary's veto to block majority decisions, and he has been

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Speaker 3: a very clear supporter of Russia despite the war in Ukraine,

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Speaker 3: and indeed this campaign has been one where Orban has

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Speaker 3: actually portrayed Ukraine and the EU as enemies of Hungary.

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Speaker 3: Also exposed how deeply connected Orban and his government have

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Speaker 3: been an r To the Kremlin. Really close connections have

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Speaker 3: been established over the course of this campaign. But the

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Speaker 3: final point about this election why it really is so interesting.

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Speaker 3: Despite that authoritarianism, despite the fact that he has to

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Speaker 3: such an extent carved out in his own image. In

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Speaker 3: the way Hungary is run, elections are harder to control,

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Speaker 3: and this time he has a really serious, really popular

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Speaker 3: opponent in a guy called Peter Magiar. And if Orban

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Speaker 3: and his party were to be defeated, it would be

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Speaker 3: a really big blow, symbolic blow to the type of

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Speaker 3: politics he represents, and on the flip side, a stunning

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Speaker 3: victory for those who still believe in things like the EU,

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Speaker 3: in democracy and so on. But likewise, if Orban were

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Speaker 3: to win, and if indeed he was possibly to be

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Speaker 3: involved in a dispute over the result, it would be

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Speaker 3: a very different picture.

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Speaker 2: So there's really a lot at stake in this election.

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Speaker 1: Let's got to us President Donald Trump and and Andy's

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Speaker 1: vice president Jeddy vass I've shown a strong support for

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Speaker 1: Auban in his campaign time, of course, when EUS and

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Speaker 1: EU relations are pretty close to an all time low,

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Speaker 1: if not there, what does this support tell us about

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Speaker 1: this election?

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Speaker 2: Beyond Europe?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really interesting that side of the Clarence. I mean,

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Speaker 3: this week, Vice President JD. Vance flew to Budapest. You know,

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Speaker 3: that gives you an indication of how important it is

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Speaker 3: for them. He went there, he shared a stage with Orban,

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Speaker 3: He was involved in multiple events to give the absolute

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Speaker 3: full throated backing of the White House to Orban, and

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Speaker 3: Orban himself has been regularly appearing at MAGA events in

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Speaker 3: the US, so they all see themselves as part of

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Speaker 3: the same movement. A lot of it's more focused on

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Speaker 3: culture war issues than anything else, really, but the ironclad

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Speaker 3: US support for Orban is kind of odd when you

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Speaker 3: think about. You know, Orban is a close ally of

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Speaker 3: Putin and Russia. Ostensibly they should be geopolitical rivals of

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Speaker 3: the US, and yet couldn't be clearer the support that

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Speaker 3: Vance and Trump lavish on Orban. You know, he said

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Speaker 3: at this event that this campaign event in Budapest the

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Speaker 3: President and I love you. Trump even called Orban during

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Speaker 3: this event and was live on speakerphone again talking about

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Speaker 3: how wonderful Orban is and how much he loves Hungary

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Speaker 3: and he loves the way Hungary's run and how unlike

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Speaker 3: other countries in Europe. They haven't let the country, you know,

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Speaker 3: kind of go to the dogs. Vance's speech has also

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Speaker 3: jibed at the EU, and you know, he talked again

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Speaker 3: about these cultural war issues migration. To use his own words,

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Speaker 3: Western civilization been under threat. The direct quote, we focus

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Speaker 3: on the God of our fathers, you know. So these

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Speaker 3: are the areas they seem to be aligned on. But

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Speaker 3: then there is also this issue of Ukraine. Orban is

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Speaker 3: a really clear supporter of Moscow. He wants Russian oil

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Speaker 3: and gas to continue pumping into Hungary.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't want any disturbance in that relationship.

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Speaker 3: And Vance and Trump have been openly skeptical of Ukraine

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Speaker 3: and their position.

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Speaker 2: And so the US clearly sees.

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Speaker 3: Orban as a very useful ally to have within the EU,

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Speaker 3: someone who can thwart collective decision making, who can OpenD

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Speaker 3: the way they go about their business, and especially when

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Speaker 3: it comes to the war in Ukraine, they can to

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Speaker 3: an extent, you know, be a position a sort of

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Speaker 3: bridge hole for the US to get their views across

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Speaker 3: in EU decision making rooms. And also they see urban

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Speaker 3: first and foremost as a symbol of the type of

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Speaker 3: politics which they want to see prevail around the world.

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Speaker 1: And I think the big question is what are the

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Speaker 1: polls currently telling us could Urban actually lose.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 3: Multiple polls, particularly the independent ones which are not run

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Speaker 3: by Orban's party or connected to his party, do suggest

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Speaker 3: that this opposition leader, Peter Magyar, could not only win,

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Speaker 3: but possibly win a super majority in the parliament. And

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Speaker 3: that super majority part is important because that gives them

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Speaker 3: additional powers to really change the country. So at the

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Speaker 3: moment they have leads of twenty to twenty five percentage points,

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Speaker 3: big big leads. Magyar is an interesting character, is a

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Speaker 3: former member of Orban's party, broke ranked ranks two years ago.

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Speaker 3: You know, started a political campaign based on accusing Orban

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Speaker 3: of corruption and that really developed in snowballed. But here's

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Speaker 3: the thing we shouldn't get too short for says with

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Speaker 3: this election, Clarence, because there's been a lot of accusations

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Speaker 3: of things like vote buying. We know that Orban's party

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Speaker 3: are the ones in power. They're capable of gerrymandering districts

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Speaker 3: to their own liking. They have been doing that and

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Speaker 3: it's worth remembering that at the last elections in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty two, Orban's party won a super majority with barely

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Speaker 3: fifty percent of the vote. Often, the way the elections

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Speaker 3: play out in terms of on the ground local results

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Speaker 3: don't necessarily see, you know, follow what we see in polls.

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Speaker 3: At that time, opinion polls had suggested a much closer outcome.

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Speaker 3: Definitely not to the extent to which we see at

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Speaker 3: the moment. But we have sort of been here before

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Speaker 3: where Orban was a bit written off and then of

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Speaker 3: course came out on top.

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Speaker 2: But there's no doubt.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, if we believe the polls even

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Speaker 3: a little bit, he could lose this weekend. And you know,

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Speaker 3: to reiterate what I said at the outset that this defeat,

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Speaker 3: if it were to happen, would echo far beyond Hungary.

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Speaker 3: It will be a really symbolic loss for the kind

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Speaker 3: of right wing culture war focused authoritarianism he represents, and

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Speaker 3: it would also give some you know, hope, I guess,

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Speaker 3: to those who still believe that that kind of politics

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Speaker 3: is not necessarily destined to sort of conquer all before it,

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Speaker 3: as is sometimes portrayed by its advocates and supporters.

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Speaker 2: We're going to thank you again.

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Speaker 1: Arthur Sullivan from Deutsche Vala in Berlin is one of

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Speaker 1: the correspondents there and regularly we touch base with him

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Speaker 1: every Friday to get a sense of where the European

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Speaker 1: mines are at