1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,080
Speaker 1: While we wait for our analyst on the US around

2
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 1: ceasefire deal, which Israel is partially agreeing to, it says

3
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:13,120
Speaker 1: it is not going to at stop its attacks on Lebanon,

4
00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:18,599
Speaker 1: particularly southern Lebanon where those attacks are currently concentrated.

5
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:20,200
Speaker 2: I see.

6
00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,079
Speaker 1: We have now been joined via zoom by Heather Holbert,

7
00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:29,000
Speaker 1: an associate fellow at Chathamhouse who served in the Biden administration. Heather,

8
00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:33,240
Speaker 1: it's morning your time, So good morning from afternoon in Cape.

9
00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,720
Speaker 3: Town, good morning from Washington.

10
00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:43,760
Speaker 1: Okay, it came this announcement of the truth of the

11
00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:49,320
Speaker 1: ceasefire followed Pakistan's request to Donald Trump to delay his

12
00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:55,440
Speaker 1: annihilation of an entire civilization forever. And ever, what's your

13
00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,120
Speaker 1: sense of how we got to a point where this

14
00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,760
Speaker 1: announcement was made.

15
00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:06,320
Speaker 2: There has been talk for at least a week, if

16
00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,320
Speaker 2: not longer, that the Pakistani government was working to mediate

17
00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:15,240
Speaker 2: and there had been various denials and non denials floating

18
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:19,720
Speaker 2: around Washington about who the administration was talking to, even

19
00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:25,240
Speaker 2: as President Trump was ratcheting up the annihilist rhetoric through

20
00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:29,160
Speaker 2: the tweets you mentioned. And it looks as if we

21
00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:33,160
Speaker 2: got stuck close to the finish line and then Beijing,

22
00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:37,440
Speaker 2: which had not been involved previously and had not been

23
00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,640
Speaker 2: very helpful, did at that point step in and in

24
00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,000
Speaker 2: some way that we're not quite clear on what help

25
00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:51,160
Speaker 2: the Pakistanis get. The agreement that was produced last night,

26
00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,920
Speaker 2: by the way, in several different forms, so it's still

27
00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,920
Speaker 2: very unclear what was agreed to over the line.

28
00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:01,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, because both the Americans and the Iranian are claiming

29
00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,800
Speaker 1: complete victory, and in a war, you can't have two

30
00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:11,639
Speaker 1: sides equally winning totally. So we don't know much about it.

31
00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,680
Speaker 1: Donald Trump referred to the Iranian tent point plan and

32
00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:23,080
Speaker 1: said that's something we can work with. But both sides

33
00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:30,600
Speaker 1: must be trying to find a formula which allows the

34
00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:35,919
Speaker 1: hostilities to stop and allows each to say to their

35
00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:41,399
Speaker 1: particular constituencies, we won and they've got I suppose two

36
00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,320
Speaker 1: weeks or until the ceasefire breaks for that to happen.

37
00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:50,240
Speaker 2: Well, something it's important to point out is that this morning,

38
00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:56,239
Speaker 2: or as of the afternoon your time, the Iranians, some

39
00:02:56,320 --> 00:03:00,440
Speaker 2: of the Gulf States, and the Israelis are all still

40
00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:05,280
Speaker 2: engaged in hostilities. There have been a continuing number of

41
00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:09,880
Speaker 2: attacks both in the Gulf States and from the Israelis

42
00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,360
Speaker 2: in Lebanon, which the Pakistani said was covered by the

43
00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:17,480
Speaker 2: ceasefire and the Israelis said was not. So it's very

44
00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 2: unclear even whether what we have is a proper ceasefire

45
00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,679
Speaker 2: or simply whether we have is a suspension or a

46
00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:30,200
Speaker 2: rollback of President Trump's threat to end Iranian civilization.

47
00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:36,000
Speaker 1: Because I've seen it the continuing miss island drone attacks

48
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,560
Speaker 1: from parts of Iran into some of the Gulf States

49
00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,760
Speaker 1: as being an inevitable consequence of the taking out of

50
00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:45,760
Speaker 1: the central leadership command of the Iranian Defense Force, the

51
00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,120
Speaker 1: top clerics and members of the ig RC, and that

52
00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:56,320
Speaker 1: with their sort of mosaic defense strategy, that it was

53
00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,120
Speaker 1: inevitable that some commanders on the ground weren't going to

54
00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,960
Speaker 1: get the ceasefire age, and that these kind of attacks

55
00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,040
Speaker 1: were inevitable certainly in the first twenty four to forty

56
00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,119
Speaker 1: eight hours after the announcement.

57
00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:13,560
Speaker 2: Right, So we will we will see what kind of calm,

58
00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:18,880
Speaker 2: if calm emerges after forty eight hours. And you we've

59
00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:23,800
Speaker 2: also already this morning seen the Secretary of Defense taking

60
00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,000
Speaker 2: a bit of a victory lap here in Washington. So

61
00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,640
Speaker 2: we will also see whether, as you say, that proved

62
00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:35,520
Speaker 2: sufficient for President Trump to decide that US participation in

63
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,280
Speaker 2: the war is done, and then, as you suggested, you

64
00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:44,839
Speaker 2: use the next two weeks to negotiate some kind of agreement. Again,

65
00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,599
Speaker 2: you also had over the course of the last twenty

66
00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:53,159
Speaker 2: four hours President Trump speculating that his administration and the

67
00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:58,080
Speaker 2: Iranians would together levy tolls at the Strait of Hormuz,

68
00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,360
Speaker 2: which seems rather fan to imagine. But there's so much

69
00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,200
Speaker 2: of this that none of us, who think that we're

70
00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,640
Speaker 2: professionals in this field, would have predicted a month ago.

71
00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:13,640
Speaker 2: So we'll have the next two weeks to see which

72
00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:18,960
Speaker 2: aspects of hostilities actually get negotiated, frankly, and which are

73
00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:22,200
Speaker 2: left as they are. I think we're also going to

74
00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,720
Speaker 2: see that some of the things that Washington would be

75
00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,480
Speaker 2: quite happy to just leave behind at this point, others

76
00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,560
Speaker 2: in the region will want to see more clearly settled.

77
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:36,400
Speaker 2: So I think the hope coming from the Trump administration

78
00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,640
Speaker 2: is very much that they can declare victory and walk away,

79
00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:42,320
Speaker 2: and it remains to be seen whether other parties on

80
00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:43,960
Speaker 2: the ground will allow them to do That.

81
00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,240
Speaker 1: Is the way that various people in the administration, including

82
00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,560
Speaker 1: the man at the top of the administration, of framed

83
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:55,719
Speaker 1: the US objectives, and this has been so inconsistent that it's,

84
00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,800
Speaker 1: you know, that makes it easy in a sense for

85
00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:02,200
Speaker 1: them to say to their acolytes, who are poised anyway

86
00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:04,840
Speaker 1: to believe whatever they say, that we have won. I

87
00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:09,279
Speaker 1: mean Donald Trump again saying today, I think via truth

88
00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,360
Speaker 1: social that the Iranians have agreed to give up their

89
00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:17,040
Speaker 1: enrich nuclear material. And there's no evidence that the Iranians

90
00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,600
Speaker 1: have said that. The Iranians said that, they haven't said that,

91
00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,279
Speaker 1: but there's no evidence that the Uranians haven't said that.

92
00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,920
Speaker 1: And if the Iranians that six hundred kilograms is that

93
00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,640
Speaker 1: of sixty percent enriched uranium, if they still have that

94
00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,960
Speaker 1: when Donald Trump declares victory and walks away, and if

95
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,839
Speaker 1: they still have, as they have now the ability to

96
00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:44,280
Speaker 1: arm their proxies to a much much lesser extent, but

97
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,599
Speaker 1: the Houties still have missiles. Hesboala's getting a bit of

98
00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,520
Speaker 1: a pounding at the moment. Donald Trump claims regime change,

99
00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,520
Speaker 1: but there hasn't been regime change. So I mean, it

100
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:57,960
Speaker 1: goes back to something I said on the radio last week.

101
00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:02,000
Speaker 1: This is humpty dumpty. Territory means when I say something,

102
00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:03,719
Speaker 1: it means whatever I want it to mean.

103
00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:08,800
Speaker 3: We have certainly seen that play out with a variety

104
00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:13,600
Speaker 3: of things with Trump's base supporters in the US, and

105
00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:17,560
Speaker 3: I do think that that will absolutely be tried again here.

106
00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,800
Speaker 2: The difference, I think is that there are various actors

107
00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,840
Speaker 2: in the region, in the Middle East who won't be satisfied.

108
00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:30,120
Speaker 2: I mean this, This situation is now dramatically less stable

109
00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:33,720
Speaker 2: than it was before this attack. This war began a

110
00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:38,640
Speaker 2: month ago, so I think we will certainly see a

111
00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 2: respite of relative calm for some period. But the logic

112
00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 2: of having having disturbed the equilibrium as much as it

113
00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:53,040
Speaker 2: has been suggests that this is extremely likely to flare

114
00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,280
Speaker 2: up again in a way that's that's deeply unstable for

115
00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:00,840
Speaker 2: everyone and deeply bad for humanitarians reasons as well.

116
00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,280
Speaker 1: Thanks very much to Heather Hulbit, served in the Biden

117
00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:08,360
Speaker 1: and administration, currently an Associate Fellow at Chatham House.