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Speaker 1: Well, let's focus our attention now on the war in

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Speaker 1: and around Iran. Those two countries, the Iran and the

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Speaker 1: United States, have agreed to a two week ceasefire, billion

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Speaker 1: hour before the US President Donald Trump's deadline, which was

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Speaker 1: set for eight pm Eastern time in the United States

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Speaker 1: last night, which would have been rather early in the

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Speaker 1: morning two am in South Africa. Iran has put forward.

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Speaker 1: The US president set a ten point proposal, which he

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Speaker 1: described as quote a workable basis on which to negotiate.

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Speaker 1: So where do we stand. Let's find out the opinions

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Speaker 1: of Dr Kingsley. Mircelbella is a former diplomat and director

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Speaker 1: at Risk Greekon fortunately a regular guest on seven h

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Speaker 1: two and were delighted to welcome him back. Dr Michael Bella,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at the points that Iranian state media is publishing.

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Speaker 1: Some of them are pretty fundamental, for example, the lifting

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Speaker 1: of all prime in secondary sanctions on Iran, the release

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Speaker 1: of Iranian assets that have been frozen, and the UN

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Speaker 1: Security Council resolution making any deal binding, and the other

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Speaker 1: points as well. Is this though, the way negotiations go

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Speaker 1: that you set out what you most want to get

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Speaker 1: and then you negotiate to get as much as you can,

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Speaker 1: but recognizing you're not going to get all of it.

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Speaker 2: Good afternoon, John, and thanks very much for the invitation.

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Speaker 3: You know, there are ten points that have been presented

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Speaker 3: by Iran and the United States has fifteen points. And

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Speaker 3: if you look at both documents, they are actually mutually exclusive.

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Speaker 3: They don't accommodate each other at all. But that's the

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Speaker 3: starting point, John, A real way would be in on Friday,

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Speaker 3: when the two delegations starts to meet what they will

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Speaker 3: need to do, and they are definitely going to do

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Speaker 3: I can guess they have to agree on issues that

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Speaker 3: are conju se for negotiations, issues that are going to

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Speaker 3: reduce the tension and trust building between the two delegations

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Speaker 3: and the two countries. And these are issues that are

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Speaker 3: non controversial for instance, that I think the United States

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Speaker 3: would agree on it. For instance, what Iran is proposing

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Speaker 3: the two million dog charges for vessels that are passing

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Speaker 3: through the state straight or formos.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the United States is going to oppose

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Speaker 2: that because.

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Speaker 3: Join airlines that are flying over our airspace, they.

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Speaker 2: Pay a certain level for flying over the airspace.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so these are issues that are really acceptable. I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure they would end up a two million dollars

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Speaker 3: the vessels, but that would be a subject of negotiation.

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Speaker 2: There'll be other issues that are trust.

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Speaker 3: Building, maybe reopening of diplomatic relations between the two countries,

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Speaker 3: opening up channels of communications at all levels before they

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Speaker 3: start to get into the peace treaty, because the Iranians.

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Speaker 2: Are looking at a long term, sustaining.

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Speaker 3: Will Piss treaty. Now that john can't be negotiated within

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Speaker 3: two weeks. Yes, it can't be negotiated within a year.

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Speaker 3: It would take long. They may develop a roadmap for

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Speaker 3: the negotiation that maybe may take two three years or

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Speaker 3: so on to final life.

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Speaker 1: So one of the points on the ten point plan

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Speaker 1: is I'm just looking at the exact word again and

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Speaker 1: into attacks on Iran and its allies. That then raises

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Speaker 1: the question of Lebanon and the extent to which Israel

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Speaker 1: is included in the steal. US President Trump is saying

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Speaker 1: Lebanon is not under discussion. The Pakistanis who have been

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Speaker 1: leading the negotiations are saying that it does. Does that

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Speaker 1: all get hammered out in Islamabad on Friday or is

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Speaker 1: that another long range, long term negotiation the Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Pakistan, Shabbaz Sharif, is very clear on what he

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Speaker 1: thinks the deal, says US President has a different version.

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Speaker 3: You know, the ten point It includes the end of

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Speaker 3: strikes by Israel in Lebanon and other regions. So it's

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Speaker 3: quiet clears a ten point, and President Trump is accepted

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Speaker 3: the fact that the ten points will be the basis

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Speaker 3: for negotiations. It does not necessarily mean at the end

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Speaker 3: of the day you're going to have all ten points agreed, right,

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Speaker 3: But if you agree on a cessation of hostilities, you

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Speaker 3: are unlikely to have any clause that allows for continuous

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Speaker 3: and military attacks against any of the parties that they've

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Speaker 3: been involved in this conflict. Remember this conflict, it's a

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Speaker 3: very intractable conflict. It includes a lot of Arab world.

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Speaker 2: So that's why.

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Speaker 3: Iran is looking it's looking at it's looking at a

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Speaker 3: very inclusive conflict that would take away even the possibility

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Speaker 3: of researchence of this conflict moving forward. But the tough

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Speaker 3: wak would be in on Friday when they start to

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Speaker 3: bag in, Iran would have.

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Speaker 2: To give in on some of the visions.

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Speaker 3: For instance, John the question thinking that the United States

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Speaker 3: would pay reparation.

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Speaker 2: There's no way the us WO pay operation. Congress would

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Speaker 2: not agree to that.

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Speaker 3: So those are some of the issues that you may

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Speaker 3: see level of flexibility and give there and there and

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Speaker 3: take somewhere.

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Speaker 1: I know, I don't know if it's fair to say that,

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Speaker 1: but you may get some clues as to how negotiations

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Speaker 1: might proceed if you have a clear understanding as to

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Speaker 1: what brought the two parties and in this instance more

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Speaker 1: than two parties to the table. What's your take on that?

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Speaker 1: Why are they sitting down at all?

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Speaker 3: You know, the Americans have suffered serious defeat. The biggest

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Speaker 3: operation that they tried to undertake during the course of

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Speaker 3: the weekend, the operation in Isfahan that later on they

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Speaker 3: claim was an operation to take out one of their

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Speaker 3: men who was shot. You can send one hundreds and

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Speaker 3: something instag and take one person in the hostile territory

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Speaker 3: that you don't know in fact and evidence, I imagine

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Speaker 3: now that there was a serious defeat that the Americans

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Speaker 3: intended to go and take away the uranium from ist Pahan,

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Speaker 3: and the American were testing the ground for the eventuality

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Speaker 3: of any ground forces.

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Speaker 2: We know within the Pentagon that issue is not accepted.

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Speaker 3: The Pentagon military expected of the view that a ground

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Speaker 3: force will be a serious disaster for the United States.

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Speaker 3: So there's a faith saving retreat from this because I

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Speaker 3: think the US has tried the possibility of all ground

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Speaker 3: the invasion, and they realized it one way. Remember John,

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Speaker 3: at the beginning of the conflict, President Trump was looking

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Speaker 3: for unconditional surrender. So why do you are have it now?

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Speaker 3: It's no longer unconditional surrender because the issues or the

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Speaker 3: battlefield is definitely tilted, not in favor of the US,

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Speaker 3: I'm afraid, but in favor of the Iranians.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Kingsley Marcubella, former diplomat and director at Risk Greekan So,

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Speaker 1: I now focus on Islamabad in Pakistan. Country that alongside Egypt, Turkey,

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Speaker 1: and I think did I leave one out? Possibly Cutter

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Speaker 1: or Oman, but four countries very much involved in this.

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Speaker 1: I'll bone up on who the fourth country is a

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Speaker 1: little bit later, but yeah, the focus now turns to

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Speaker 1: them and they're mediating and facilitating powers. The clock is

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Speaker 1: ticking Islamabad. As I said in the Spotlight on Friday

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Speaker 1: twenty three minutes past five