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Speaker 1: Seven notes. You're listening to the best of the Money

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Speaker 1: Show the show.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Best Bits of the Money Show. You're

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Speaker 2: listening to a digest some of the best insights, thoughts,

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Speaker 2: comments and ideas from the show this week. A good

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Speaker 2: idea to if you enjoy it. If there's a particular

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Speaker 2: interview that caught your attention, maybe just send it what's

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Speaker 2: happened to a friend or someone who you think might

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Speaker 2: just benefit from it. There's so many people need a

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Speaker 2: bit of financial help in these difficult times. To start,

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Speaker 2: some of the news stories that we thought were important

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Speaker 2: from this week, escam's finalized a memorandum of understanding with

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Speaker 2: the major ferrochrome producers, someone called Chrome and the glen

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Speaker 2: called Morafe Chrome Venture. There's a whole lot of paperwork

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Speaker 2: to get through and lots of discussions, but it does

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Speaker 2: look like for now that our chrome sector, our smelter sector,

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Speaker 2: will be able to stop those retrenchments and keep those

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Speaker 2: smelters going. It's all about electricity prices. Business confidence in

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Speaker 2: South Africa are bounding towards the end of the year.

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Speaker 2: Surveys from SACHI, the Essay Chamber of Commerce Industry and

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Speaker 2: RMB both showing improved sentiment. A lot of it to

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Speaker 2: do with the number of international visitors we had in November,

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Speaker 2: and we have the G twenty and the B twenty

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Speaker 2: to thank for that. And Botswana, can you believe it

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Speaker 2: reinstating a ban on the import of vegetables from South Africa.

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Speaker 2: They say it's to promote local agricultural production. From what

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Speaker 2: I understand, no warning to our authorities that this was coming.

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Speaker 2: Tonight we bring you a mixture of stories from the

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Speaker 2: world of money from the week that has been. This

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Speaker 2: week on how I make my money, we spoke to

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Speaker 2: doctor Ralph Mattera. He spoke about how he went from

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Speaker 2: growing up in a rural area in the country watching

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Speaker 2: his parents farm, to then studying political science and law

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Speaker 2: advits to earning a PhD, and now his public roles

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Speaker 2: as a researcher, a lecturer, a policy analyst, a columnist

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Speaker 2: and an author, and his private life as a farmer.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Ralph Motecha.

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Speaker 3: I was quite curious even the interest kin later. I

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Speaker 3: was trending in politics, university, trained in law, trained in

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Speaker 3: economic history. But I was so curious. I remember when

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Speaker 3: I did my undergrad I spent a lot of time

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Speaker 3: also reading newspapers, and I had professors who encouraged me

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Speaker 3: to read quite a lot of current affairs. So I've

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Speaker 3: always gravitated towards the politics international relations, but most importantly

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Speaker 3: on how it affected or relate to daily living experience

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Speaker 3: for most people. So I came through a lot through

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Speaker 3: academia and my earlier publications. Before I even started writing

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Speaker 3: for newspapers, I was publishing in academic journals, contributing chapters

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Speaker 3: and so you mentioned the group that moved from academia

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Speaker 3: into political analysis work for me, I've merged the two

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Speaker 3: together because I still existed a lot with an academia

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Speaker 3: where a year in, year out, I published for academic

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Speaker 3: anaw's books, publications such as chapters and so forth, and

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Speaker 3: I engage with academics. I enjoy reading quite a lot.

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Speaker 3: So I found myself one day being referred to as

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Speaker 3: political analysis. Said, well, that's not inaccurate. It's part of

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Speaker 3: what I do.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I know some people really don't like the

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Speaker 2: phrase political analyst, but you know, an economist is an

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Speaker 2: economics analyst, but we can't call you a politician. Are

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Speaker 2: you comfortable with the term. I mean, I've thought for

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Speaker 2: many years is there a better term, but actually what

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Speaker 2: you are doing when you come on the radio is

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Speaker 2: your analyzing politics. I don't know for a better term.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Stephen, I'm quite comfortable with the term. And

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Speaker 3: I've also looked at how this has managed, this has

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Speaker 3: evolved as a profession over a period of time. I

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Speaker 3: mean you've seen people mostly who will be rooted in academia,

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Speaker 3: will be rooted in journalism, in economics, but they come

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Speaker 3: and break down current affairs to talk about implications on

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Speaker 3: on on policy making and thereof. So I'm quite comfortable

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Speaker 3: with it. Actually, I've been mistaken to being a politician

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Speaker 3: that I always correct to say, No, I'm not a practitioner.

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Speaker 3: Politicians are people who you know, they go to office,

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Speaker 3: they get elected, and I don't do that. What I

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Speaker 3: do is to look at the issues and to look

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Speaker 3: at the broader environment within which actors that we call

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Speaker 3: referred to as politicians or political leaders they make decisions

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Speaker 3: and what criteria do they use their orf. So it's

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Speaker 3: not a curtain dry way you can say there is

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Speaker 3: a purecyparation. But I always believe Stuven that day it's

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Speaker 3: always better to get a sense of the concept. That's

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Speaker 3: what we learn in academia and then we try to

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Speaker 3: apply them on current affairs and public policy discourse.

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Speaker 2: Where were you growing up? And I feel I've known

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Speaker 2: you for so long and I don't think I've ever

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Speaker 2: asked you that question. What kind of community were you

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Speaker 2: growing up in?

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Speaker 3: Interestingly, I grew up within a farming community in an

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Speaker 3: area oddly named my Darling Zella. And I say what

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Speaker 3: the name? Because every time I refer to this, you know,

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Speaker 3: you always your wife You say I'm going to my dallying.

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Speaker 3: The friends might say, hey, where are you going, because

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Speaker 3: that's supposed to be your dali right there. But I

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Speaker 3: grew up in this area. It is in sant Ovarana,

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Speaker 3: which is to be called Baham Area. And interestingly, Steven,

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Speaker 3: I did my metric here in the rural high school here,

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Speaker 3: and I've been part of the community. Every time I

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Speaker 3: would venture in our countries, travel study, I always have

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Speaker 3: the community in mind. I always tried to relate my story,

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Speaker 3: my research back to the community where I grew up.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I've been to many countries, but I believe

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Speaker 3: this is one of the best communities among which to.

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Speaker 2: Leave to go from there. Obviously, you would have had

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Speaker 2: to do quite well in the trick to get into university.

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Speaker 2: There's always a big fight for places. How difficult was that?

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Speaker 3: I mean, the teachers were very supportive. I was quite

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Speaker 3: ambitious then young I left this place when I finish

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Speaker 3: my metric or seventeen, and then fortunate enough I got

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Speaker 3: admitted to Vets University and I never looked back. That's

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Speaker 3: when I did my undergrade, I did my honors, I

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Speaker 3: did my master's. Privileged enough to even go study overseas

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Speaker 3: and do that. So often when I see younger people

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Speaker 3: here in my community, some of them they don't believe

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Speaker 3: I studied here, and their parents will remind them that

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Speaker 3: no used to study here, used to go to home

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Speaker 3: and eat at home during lunch break at school and

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Speaker 3: so forth. So it's a story where you know, you

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Speaker 3: come around and you talk to the younger ones, saying

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Speaker 3: to them that it doesn't matter where you can always

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Speaker 3: make it and always try to show. And most interestingly,

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Speaker 3: when I go out to interact with people elsewhere, I

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Speaker 3: bring the case study of where where I grew up,

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Speaker 3: this village. It's always fascinating. It's a very strong agricultural community.

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Speaker 3: I remember Steven before I went to university during in

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Speaker 3: Genuary February. I always said to plow the field before

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Speaker 3: the year cousta. My grandfather insisted that, hey, you've got

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Speaker 3: to plow the sill to usually plow sogham here, cultivate

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Speaker 3: sogam and so forth. So it has always been part

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Speaker 3: of me and coming back and mingling with the community

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Speaker 3: is always the best feeling here.

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Speaker 2: Quite quite a thing to go from plowing to to

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Speaker 2: sort of it's university. And I mean you might strangely

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Speaker 2: have had more in common with some you know, other

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Speaker 2: young men growing up on farms in the Free State

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Speaker 2: than many other people. I mean, it's a very interesting

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Speaker 2: journey from the village to the city.

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Speaker 3: Very interesting. Steven, I'll tell you what was the most

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Speaker 3: shocking thing, And I said, this is the siling pool

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Speaker 3: at that when I did my first day in nineteen

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Speaker 3: ninety five, and I said, what a huge pool. How

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Speaker 3: did disciple manage to have so much water been put

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Speaker 3: in a pool like this? I mean, I got just fascinating.

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Speaker 3: And you know, it goes quite a huge, big journey,

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Speaker 3: having to adapt to and having to even take extra

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Speaker 3: classes to cope with the way of teaching the regardless

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Speaker 3: oray of teaching at the university. But I can say

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Speaker 3: it's quite doable. With determination, it's quite doable. And once

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Speaker 3: you can make that across that bridge, you become quite

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Speaker 3: unstabable as to how far you can go in learning.

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Speaker 3: You know, you learn more and more. And I think

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Speaker 3: it is the discipline of plowing. You know, we grew

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Speaker 3: up looking after cattle, plowing goads and everything. So when

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Speaker 3: I went to the university, it was small, like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: you're just going to read this book from cover to cover.

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Speaker 3: So that sense of discipline continued, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: what sustained my studies throughout.

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Speaker 2: You worked in government at the National Treasury. If I remember,

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Speaker 2: how did you find that experience? Because I often think

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Speaker 2: that some people who talk about government, you get a

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Speaker 2: sense they really do understand it because they've been within it,

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Speaker 2: and that I've often found is very valuable.

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Speaker 3: It that's a very interesting experience. I mean, before I

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Speaker 3: work the treasure I was a Lee Tarried University of

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Speaker 3: the Western Cape. I lecture there for two years and

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Speaker 3: I applied for a job at Treasury. You can imagine

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Speaker 3: still and I did. I was not a hardcore economist.

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Speaker 3: I was more like economic history, studied finance and so forth,

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Speaker 3: and I got a job at National Treasury at the

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Speaker 3: as a senior policy analyst within the budget office. That's

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Speaker 3: why we were responsible for doing national budgets. We will

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Speaker 3: compile that sick book called Estimated National Expenditure. That was

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Speaker 3: very interesting because it also told me that I needed

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Speaker 3: to read more about economics and finance. I don't necessarily

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Speaker 3: have to go and get a certificate, but I had

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Speaker 3: to read more. Luckily, when I was a Treasury I

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Speaker 3: took out courses on financial analysis, economic analysis, and I

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Speaker 3: just saw it as a Instead of coming and thinking

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Speaker 3: that I had an impediment, I rather looked at this

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Speaker 3: an opportunity to learn more and our work within within

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Speaker 3: within National Treasury. From there I got to understand concepts

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Speaker 3: such as bonds sixty become assets and believe me, I

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Speaker 3: once worked for a bank for about six months and

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Speaker 3: so forth where I was dealing with a providing analysis

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Speaker 3: for the six income asset groups. So versatility and multidisciplinary

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Speaker 3: approach to studying is what I enjoyed the most. I

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Speaker 3: quickly moved from one area to the adult without losing

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Speaker 3: the previous of interest.

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Speaker 2: I did say to you that I was going to

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Speaker 2: ask you one or two questions about where we are

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Speaker 2: at the moment, because there's so much that's fascinating. But

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Speaker 2: I mean, our politics is changing so fundamentally. The A

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Speaker 2: and C's National General Council started today. There was a

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Speaker 2: time when that's all everybody would be talking about, even

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Speaker 2: the money show. And now I just get a sense

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Speaker 2: that people don't take the A and C nearly as

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Speaker 2: seriously as they did because of what happened in the elections,

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Speaker 2: because of the longer term trend is sort of fracturing

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Speaker 2: in our politics. How do you see things changing?

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Speaker 3: You're right, Stephen. I mean if we look at the

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Speaker 3: basic fact that for a long time well used to

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Speaker 3: referring to the n C as the ruling party, and

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Speaker 3: we have had to change our vocabulary since last year

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Speaker 3: elections whereby the NC is a leader of the coalition,

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Speaker 3: it is governing through a coalition agreement and that was

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Speaker 3: quite a shortca. I mean a lot has said to change.

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Speaker 3: Even the NC itself carisone at times as if it

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Speaker 3: is still the party that makes decisions on its own

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Speaker 3: in government. And when you look at what is happening

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Speaker 3: south Africa's politics is evolving and the NC itself. I

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Speaker 3: also have to give credit to the NC that there

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Speaker 3: have not been a sole loser during the election. Well,

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Speaker 3: they would not consider that we have lost now that

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Speaker 3: they are no longer running, I mean commanding policy on

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Speaker 3: their own. But I think the party also evolved, is

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Speaker 3: evolving to functioning within the coalition South Africa. You and

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Speaker 3: I we spoke about political fragmentation South Africa. It's a multiracial,

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Speaker 3: multi ethnic, multi interest society and we are seeing political

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Speaker 3: parties involving along those lines. There isn't a single center

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Speaker 3: of power in South Africa. We've got multiplicity of power,

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Speaker 3: of places of power. That is why the NC is

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Speaker 3: no longer the only center of power. Of course it

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Speaker 3: is quite dominant. But now if you paid too much

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Speaker 3: attention toward discipline within the NGC, it might be waste

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Speaker 3: of for your efforts because come next elections subsequent general elections,

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Speaker 3: the NC might come back with the one percent five

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Speaker 3: percent is their likely. So it is a party that

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Speaker 3: is on the decline, and our attention toward discipline within

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Speaker 3: the ANC also has to shift proportionately in understanding other

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Speaker 3: parties that are emerging and contesting power in South Africa.

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Speaker 2: Talking to doctor Ralph Moteka the political analysts about how

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Speaker 2: he makes his money. Ralph, I presume you have clients

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Speaker 2: you come to you for political analysis. You, I imagine

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Speaker 2: get some money from columns and things like that, your

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Speaker 2: books that you haven't spoken about yet, but I'm hoping

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Speaker 2: you're also making some money from farming. How big a

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Speaker 2: part of your life is that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a very interesting area, Steven, I would say

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Speaker 3: when it comes to farming, I have a competitive advantage because, Sven,

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Speaker 3: it's one thing I've known about before going into advanced studies.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I've learned about crops when I grew up here.

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Speaker 3: So I decided the last few years just set up

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Speaker 3: what you can call a commercial farm. I just didn't

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Speaker 3: want a subsistence because I grew up within subsistence arrangements.

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Speaker 3: So what I did was to was to try to

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Speaker 3: set up a modern farm with modern irrigation, mechanized irrigation

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Speaker 3: where we can measure the amount of water that we

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Speaker 3: use and put the necessary infrastructure. And I've been putting

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Speaker 3: infrastructure for the last few years. As people say that

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Speaker 3: if you want to make a million out of farming,

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Speaker 3: Stevens be prepared to lose or put two millions. It's

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Speaker 3: quite demanding, capital intensive, but I think we are. We

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Speaker 3: will be able to start putting high velue crops maybe

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Speaker 3: within a couple of weeks. We've had to work on

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Speaker 3: the land, steven We've had to level the land, whether

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Speaker 3: to work on the soil, whether had to do the pipeline,

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Speaker 3: just to do it by the book proper and everything.

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Speaker 3: So it's one of the things that I said to

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Speaker 3: myself when I started waking, that one day I'll go

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Speaker 3: back to where I grew up and try to see

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Speaker 3: if we can take this thing to another level. And

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Speaker 3: I'm quite happy. The success might not come through myself

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Speaker 3: and my farming project, but I think some younger people

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Speaker 3: who are coming up and they end better, they're waiting,

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Speaker 3: they might see something like that and start thinking that, hey,

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Speaker 3: let's invest in this community in a way that we

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Speaker 3: can change this community into authorizing farming community. Because that's

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Speaker 3: what we've been doing. When I grew up, Stephen, we

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Speaker 3: never we never bought daily stuff like tomatoes, million million everything.

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Speaker 3: We all got them from our farm and all, and

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Speaker 3: that meant we had a lot of cash that we

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Speaker 3: did not have to spend and we could spend it

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Speaker 3: on the important things. So building a commercial from this

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Speaker 3: site and trying to do it the book has been

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Speaker 3: my occupation. And after that I go read and I

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Speaker 3: go write as I usually do. But it's been quite

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Speaker 3: a fulfilling experience and an interesting journey that I would

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Speaker 3: share more with their listeners some other times. And I

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Speaker 3: can say it requires commitment. You need to be hands on.

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Speaker 3: You can't I do with the soil. You gotta work

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Speaker 3: on it. You can't. You know, those are things that

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Speaker 3: they change your attitude as to what do you do

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Speaker 3: anyone awake on the farm. You pick reports, then you

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Speaker 3: read about the trends in agriculture and so forth. But

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Speaker 3: I have to say it's been an interesting learning experience.

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Speaker 3: We are a couple of weeks from trying to put

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Speaker 3: some butternart tie vel crops and counting the seas and everything.

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Speaker 3: It's been a journey, but I'm very hopeful that we

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Speaker 3: will be able to see good pretense in the course

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Speaker 3: of the year.

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Speaker 2: Doctor roth Mota there on how I Make My Money

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Speaker 2: this week talking about his journey as a political analyst,

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Speaker 2: lecture researcher, and.

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Speaker 4: A seven notes is the best of the Money Show

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Speaker 4: from this week in personal finance.

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Speaker 2: This week, we're on Ingram talking to us the financial

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Speaker 2: advisor co founder of Galileo Capital, talking about what to

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Speaker 2: do if the market does slump next year, and why

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Speaker 2: investors so often try and predict what will happen and

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Speaker 2: so often we all get it wrong.

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Speaker 5: It's such a game we play, I think as an industry,

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Speaker 5: but also as humanity. You know, when we wake up

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Speaker 5: every morning, I don't know if you do it. I

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Speaker 5: do it. I open my phone and I look at

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Speaker 5: the weather app as if that's somehow reliable and it's

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Speaker 5: actually going to tell me what's really going to happen.

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Speaker 5: And we do the same thing with our investments. We

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Speaker 5: listen to very clever strategists and economists and they give

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Speaker 5: us very detailed reasons as to why the markets are

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Speaker 5: going to go up or down or whatever it is.

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Speaker 5: It there forecasting for the month and the year ahead,

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Speaker 5: and somehow we feel better that, you know, we've been

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Speaker 5: given this very clever sounding forecast, and now we know

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Speaker 5: it's going to happen, so we value the certainty, and then,

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Speaker 5: like our weather app, we get severely disappointed when things

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Speaker 5: don't work out as promised, and you're right, we're living

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Speaker 5: in a time nowst even where I mean, I'm so

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Speaker 5: tired of talking about the bubbles, But that's what people

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Speaker 5: want to hear, is they want to understand are we

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Speaker 5: in a bubble? Is it going to burst? When is

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Speaker 5: it going to burst? You know what day exactly, maybe

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Speaker 5: down to the minute. And then you know, kind of

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Speaker 5: giving them the answer, which is for them deeply unsatisfying,

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Speaker 5: where you say, gee, I don't know, you know, you

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Speaker 5: kind of leave them unsatisfied. And so I thought, how

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Speaker 5: can we help people maybe get a parameter of certainty,

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Speaker 5: in other words, if it crashes And that's certainly not

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Speaker 5: a forecast I'm making. I'm humble enough to say I

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Speaker 5: don't have a clue what's going to happen tomorrow. Forget

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Speaker 5: about twelve months time. But if it's going to crash tomorrow,

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Speaker 5: what does that look like? And what should we prepare

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Speaker 5: ourselves for.

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Speaker 3: Do?

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Speaker 2: I mean, we talk about this as if it doesn't

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Speaker 2: happen often, but do markets fall often? And I know

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Speaker 2: at some point we need to remind ourselves that over

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Speaker 2: the longer term, markets always grow.

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Speaker 5: Markets do always grow, and they have always grown despite

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Speaker 5: many predictions of calamity and you know, the end of

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Speaker 5: the world, somehow markets survive and continue to thrive. And

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Speaker 5: and we we you know, we also know one of

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Speaker 5: the good adages is that when America sneezes, the rest

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Speaker 5: of the world catches a cold. And and you know,

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Speaker 5: that might not be as true for the dollar, for example,

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Speaker 5: as it used to be, but it's certainly true for

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Speaker 5: the American market. If the American market has a as

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Speaker 5: a big crash, it will affect all other markets for

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Speaker 5: a period of time. And so understanding what what happens

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Speaker 5: with with big market crashes in America is key to

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Speaker 5: understanding how we will be impacted. And in the US,

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Speaker 5: the American market falls, and when I say falls, I

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Speaker 5: mean if you measure it from the first of January

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Speaker 5: to the end of December, it falls one out of

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Speaker 5: every four years. So you know, you take a typical

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Speaker 5: four or five year period and you would expect the

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Speaker 5: market to have one year where it is negative. And

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Speaker 5: so it's actually rather common a quarter of the time

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Speaker 5: you lose money by being in the market over a year.

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Speaker 5: What's interesting is how surprised people are, and you know,

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Speaker 5: whether it's you know, people like you and me when

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Speaker 5: we're talking about this stuff, or you know investors who

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Speaker 5: just happen to have money in the markets, or you know,

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Speaker 5: professional investors always seem surprised after a market fall, and

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Speaker 5: the truth is that happens quite frequently. What's maybe more

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Speaker 5: helpful is to understand what does that look like when

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Speaker 5: the market is down over a year, and you know,

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Speaker 5: typically it's going to be down about thirteen percent. So

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Speaker 5: if you started the first of January's let's say we're

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Speaker 5: on the first of January twenty twenty six, we've got

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Speaker 5: a million round in the markets. By the end of

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Speaker 5: the year, we would expe that to be down an

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Speaker 5: average of thirteen percent. In other words, thirty first of December,

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Speaker 5: our million round is now worth eight hundred and seventy

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Speaker 5: thousand rate. So that's that's the typical movement of an

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Speaker 5: average down year. And I think you know that that's

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Speaker 5: the context we should be ready for, is if there

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Speaker 5: is a correction or a crash or whatever you want

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Speaker 5: to call it. I know people don't like using the

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Speaker 5: word crash, we should talk about it, but that's what

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Speaker 5: we would expect, is that it's typically around thirteen percent

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Speaker 5: a year.

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Speaker 2: The four can be a lot bigger canswers. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we you can have a four that's a lot worse

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Speaker 2: than that. I mean, particularly if you go back to

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Speaker 2: the global financial crisis. I mean, wasn't more than that

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Speaker 2: that was a big, a big thing, though it was.

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Speaker 5: And maybe you know a lot of people are talking about,

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Speaker 5: you know, the IT bubble in nineteen ninety nine up

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Speaker 5: to the year two thousand, you know, because that's somehow

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Speaker 5: related to tech and and now you know, the fear

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Speaker 5: is that we're in another version of that. And you

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Speaker 5: know two thousand and the year two thousand and the

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Speaker 5: two thousand and eight crash, you were looking at a

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Speaker 5: fall of about forty percent over that one year period.

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Speaker 5: So again you start the year with a million and

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Speaker 5: you end the year with just fractionally more than six

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Speaker 5: hundred thousand by the end of December. So it is

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Speaker 5: a big number. And what's frightening about that is not

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Speaker 5: the fall, it's how badly people respond to that because

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Speaker 5: what they do, and we do it on mass you know,

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Speaker 5: we see it happen. But you know through thousands of

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Speaker 5: investors that they remain fairly logical, fairly irrational, for the

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Speaker 5: first five percent of the fall, then the next ten,

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Speaker 5: and then the next fifteen. But somewhere along the line,

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Speaker 5: you know, I don't know what the number is, twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty five percent. People rarely start to panic and then

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Speaker 5: they flood the market with their shares. They sell because

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Speaker 5: they believe it will not recover. And of course, as

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Speaker 5: you said, mark tend to go up over long periods

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Speaker 5: of time, so they make a catastrophic mistake. But we

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Speaker 5: do it, en mass.

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Speaker 2: We need to talk about averages here, and averages are

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Speaker 2: basically the key as opposed to investing, along with diversification.

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Speaker 2: But over averages, I mean, we've had such a great

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Speaker 2: year on the JC this year, and you kind of

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Speaker 2: want that to continue, but we should realize that it

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Speaker 2: is higher than average. What do averages tell us over

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Speaker 2: the longer term?

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Speaker 5: So I mean, I'll have to give you a real

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Speaker 5: dad joke here, but you know, if you if your

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Speaker 5: head is in the fire and your feet is in

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Speaker 5: an ice block, you know the middle of your body

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Speaker 5: is on average fine, but the ends are in real trouble.

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Speaker 5: And so we need to talk about averages because they

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Speaker 5: hide a lot of noise, and sometimes that they hide

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Speaker 5: some potential dangers. And so when you're investing in shares

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Speaker 5: and we're talking about a five year or ten year period,

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Speaker 5: you would expect your your investment to grow by somewhere

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Speaker 5: around ten to twelve percent. Yeah, that's the normal. But

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Speaker 5: as you said, I mean, this year has been a

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Speaker 5: fantastic year on the JC so way way more than that,

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Speaker 5: probably double if not. You know, who knows what the

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Speaker 5: last few weeks of the year delivers, but maybe triple that,

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Speaker 5: and just a phenomenal time in the market. And so

435
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 5: you know, we should be rightfully saying, you know that

436
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 5: that's wonderful. We also need to know that it can't continue.

437
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 5: The market just doesn't give you twenty to thirty percent

438
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 5: year after year after year if it. If it did,

439
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 5: none of us would be working. We'd all be professional investors.

440
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,119
Speaker 5: So we should anchor ourselves around that ten to twelve percent.

441
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 5: And when the market gives you much more than that,

442
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 5: we should be prepared to say, okay, we should look

443
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 5: at this with a lot more concern, a lot more

444
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 5: consideration for what might happen differently next year. The only

445
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 5: guarantee that you have with markets is whatever happened over

446
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 5: the last twelve months almost definitely won't repeat itself in

447
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,360
Speaker 5: exactly the same way over the next twelve So it's

448
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 5: it's very unlikely that we get another, you know, big year.

449
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 5: We might get a flat year, we might get it

450
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 5: down yet. But what's not going to happen is we're

451
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 5: not going to get a repetition of what happened. And

452
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 5: maybe with these averages when we're talking about ten to

453
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 5: twelve percent a year, you know, when you measure this

454
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 5: over five years, what actually happens if you had to

455
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 5: look at it from one year to the next, more

456
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 5: likely your returns are giving you twenty percent, and then

457
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 5: it's twenty eight percent, and then it's down fifteen percent,

458
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 5: and up fourteen percent and then down one percent. And

459
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,880
Speaker 5: when you do the average, it looks fine. It looks

460
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,360
Speaker 5: like it's ten or twelve percent a year. But it's

461
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 5: been a heck of a roller coaster ride in that time.

462
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 2: Your question for on ingram a voice notes on a

463
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 2: seventy two seven or two one seven or two What

464
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 2: to do if the markets do crash next year? Warren?

465
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: What happens if there is a big crash, And I

466
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 2: really do mean something like the global financial crisis. I

467
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 2: don't want to, you know, think of nineteen twenty nine,

468
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 2: because that I think I'm hoping was a once off,

469
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 2: was something very different, but a major downturn. I mean,

470
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: what can you expect in that scenario?

471
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 5: Okay, so very quick history lesson the reason that we

472
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 5: can all be fairly comfortable that nineteen twenty nine doesn't

473
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:15,400
Speaker 5: happen again is because the banks at that time were

474
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 5: really unregulated. And if you were doing nothing wrong and

475
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 5: you've been paying your mortgage every month and the bank

476
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 5: was in financial difficulty in nineteen twenty eight, for example,

477
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 5: they could knock on your door and say, okay, Stephen,

478
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 5: you know, we know you've been paying your mortgage every month,

479
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 5: but we would like you to now repay the remaining

480
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 5: seven million round of your bond by next week or

481
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 5: we taking your house now, you know, that's what they

482
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 5: could do. Nowadays, they're not allowed to do that. So

483
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 5: there is a lot around the regulation of banks that

484
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 5: will prevent that kind of really bad behavior. And so

485
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 5: if we're in a big we're a big crash, let's

486
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 5: say it is it's a forty percent year, what you

487
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 5: should understand is that the big dips, they last somewhere

488
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 5: around eight months at the shortest to around twenty four

489
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 5: months as a normal kind of longer period, and the

490
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 5: averages around sixteen months. So just you know, a year

491
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 5: and a quarter. And what that means is, if you

492
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 5: start a year with a million, you ended you know,

493
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 5: December at six hundred thousand, you know, it could take

494
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 5: another year for your six hundred thousand to get back

495
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 5: to a million, and that would be normal. That would

496
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:27,439
Speaker 5: be the thing you should anticipate. And a one or

497
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 5: two year period where the markets are down might feel

498
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 5: like a lifetime if you're looking at your statements every

499
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 5: single day, but actually over five or a ten year

500
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 5: period that that's a very small period of time and

501
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,239
Speaker 5: certainly is part of what's happened in the history. So

502
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 5: again reminding people when we talk about expecting to get

503
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 5: ten to twelve percent per year over five or ten years,

504
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 5: that includes years where you're see in your market portfolio

505
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 5: go down forty percent. It's normal.

506
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 1: You should be.

507
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 5: Okay with that.

508
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 2: So you have to just write it out.

509
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 5: It sounds like such an easy thing to say, just

510
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 5: ride it out. You know that guy on the radios

511
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 5: just called us all to ride it out. Yeah, you know,

512
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 5: be calm and carry on. This too shall pass. But

513
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 5: but it's exactly what we should do. And and the

514
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 5: truth is we're not wide psychologically to deal with this.

515
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 5: We want to take action when when something happens, our

516
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,159
Speaker 5: fight or flight you know, urges kick in and and

517
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 5: you know, and and so we want to do something

518
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 5: to prevent more losses and actually take action to correct

519
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 5: the problem and regain the money that we've lost. And

520
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 5: one of the things to understand is you can't anticipate

521
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 5: the crash, and there is certainly nothing you can do

522
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 5: to anticipate the recovery, and recoveries happened very quickly, and

523
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 5: so you know, we could be all, you know, sort

524
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 5: of doom and gloom and worrying about, you know, the

525
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,120
Speaker 5: end of the world, because the market's been going down

526
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 5: for twelve months and then all of a sudden, we

527
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 5: wake up one day and we go hang on, you know,

528
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 5: for the last two months, it's actually been going up,

529
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 5: and it's been going up there very strongly. And there's

530
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 5: been so much bad news in the world that we

531
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 5: haven't paid attention to share prices. So the news and

532
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 5: the markets are very different. And so I would say

533
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 5: if we're in this next year and we're sitting in

534
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 5: October and everything's down forty percent, and you ask me

535
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 5: what we're going to do, I would be saying to you,

536
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 5: we just ride it out. If anything, Let's not look

537
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 5: at our statements so regularly, and let's focus on positive

538
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 5: things like the weather and the spring box and whatever

539
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 5: else that we can, because the market will do what

540
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 5: it does, it will recover.

541
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: Indeed, we're talking to Warren Ingram tonight. There's a question

542
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 2: Warren for you from Emily. She says, Hi, I'm supposed

543
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 2: to host my family for Christmas lunch this year. They

544
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 2: usually twelve people who come to the family Christmas. We

545
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: wrote eight houses to spread the load. My problem is,

546
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: actually don't have enough money to do a proper lunch

547
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 2: for everyone. What should I do? That's from Emily.

548
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 5: It's so typical of this time of year where people

549
00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 5: are financially pressurized and they feel shame or embarrassed because

550
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 5: they can't you buy the presence for their their nieces

551
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 5: and nephews, or potentially even their own children or their grandchildren,

552
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 5: and and or in situation like this, wh where Emily,

553
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 5: you know, needs to put on the spread and and

554
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 5: she just doesn't have the money.

555
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 6: Uh.

556
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 5: And unfortunately, a lot of the time, you know, people

557
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 5: resort to debt to to to deal with this, you know,

558
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 5: instead of facing the problem head on, they you know,

559
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 5: they go on they load the credit card and and

560
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 5: set themselves up very badly for for for debt during

561
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 5: a very expensive time of year. And and so my

562
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 5: my suggestion, Emily is is to be clear, is to

563
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 5: be kind, you know, I would be you know, speaking

564
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 5: to to the to the family, they are your family,

565
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 5: and just being honest. You know, I don't have the money.

566
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 5: I don't I know, it's my turn and I'm supposed

567
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 5: to be able to do this, but I simply can't.

568
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 5: And and then you know, find the solutions together, you know.

569
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 5: So sometimes it's a yes of asking everybody to bring

570
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 5: a bit, you know, a dish or whatever it is,

571
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 5: that whatever they can contribute to the meal.

572
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 2: Warren Ingram there on this week's Personal Finance segment. Trying

573
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 2: to predict the future always been a bit of a

574
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 2: mug's game. No one can really get it right. But

575
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 2: also talking about the law of averages, which I found fascinating,

576
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 2: so important to have the law of averages to sort

577
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 2: of guide you in this and you know what he'll

578
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 2: tell you to do. He'll tell you to diversify.

579
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: You will listen to the money shows, Best Bids.

580
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: Africa Business Focus this week doctor Rutendo and Dingui, the

581
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: founding director of Tribe Africa Advisory, looking at some of

582
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: the most important stories happening on our continent. Looking as

583
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: well at the issue of Chinese exports to Africa and

584
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 2: how they have grown. It's been huge, and that's despite

585
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 2: all of the terror of wars or partly because of them.

586
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: Also looking at that relationship between Rwanda and the United States.

587
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 7: Two hundred billion dollars last yest even as an end

588
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 7: of December was two hundred and ninety seven billion, so

589
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 7: by end of this year it will definitely probably reach

590
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 7: that and peak that. Bearing in mind that globally the

591
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 7: Chinese surplus and trade is a trillion dollars and collectively

592
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 7: Africa has got a deficit of sixty billion dollars. So

593
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 7: the upside obviously from a Chinese perspective, even with the

594
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 7: global tariffs and the war with the US business doing

595
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 7: well for them, They're still exporting, they're still importing into

596
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 7: Africa a lot of their stuff. And another key dynamic

597
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 7: Stephen is that they've just had the announcement of the

598
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 7: launch I think it's in December of their input, which

599
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 7: is an island in China and that is a free

600
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 7: track zone. So what they're going to be doing there

601
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 7: is that they've reduced tariffs for seventy four percent of

602
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 7: line items to zero tariffs. And also I think corporate

603
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 7: text is going to be about fifteen percent, so they've

604
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 7: really created incentives for people to export to China. And

605
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 7: obviously Africa is a tea target market. So from a

606
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 7: tiny from a Chinese perspective with none of the fallow

607
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 7: has been a big play in Africa. I think the

608
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,479
Speaker 7: challenge is for Africa to say, how can we position

609
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 7: ourselves to go up higher the value chain and that's

610
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 7: always been the case.

611
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 2: It also shows you, I mean, how the world is changing.

612
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: I mean, isn't the United States losing its economic influence

613
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,479
Speaker 2: on Africa? And that's because of their own choices.

614
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 7: It's because of their own choices. And I think what

615
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 7: this shows if you see the growth in China in

616
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 7: terms of whether it's important exporting to Africa, the key

617
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 7: regions that are driving that growth of trade for China,

618
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 7: Stephen are trade with Africa and you in some of

619
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 7: the Asian markets. So although there's been a lot of

620
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 7: distability from a world trade perspective, China doesn't it doesn't

621
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 7: seem to be taking negative not although analysts still predict

622
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 7: that it's unsustainable, this rapid growth that's happening from a

623
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 7: trade perspective, eventual of flat light. But at the moment

624
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 7: they're smiling all the way to the Chinese Bank. Sorry

625
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 7: to use the.

626
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 2: Pun no no. So it's would seem Ethiopia they've looked

627
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 2: at a big sort of deal. It's twenty nine trillion

628
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 2: dollars on the gas by rail agreement. That's huge.

629
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 7: So the reason is Ethopia is the agreement has been

630
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 7: signed in Ethiopia. It's with Ethiopia and the inside Dynamic Resources,

631
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 7: it's a big consulting firm. The actual project, Steven is

632
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 7: given this unique names called the Iron River of Energy

633
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 7: and the Ambition and twenty nine trillion US dollars a

634
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 7: lot of money is to build a gas by rail

635
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 7: network that's about seventy three five seventy thousand, five hundred

636
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:30,959
Speaker 7: kilometers long. So just to give you in terms of

637
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 7: the length of this from Cape to the furthest point

638
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 7: in North Africa, which is Tunisia, it's about eight to

639
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 7: ten thousand kilometers, so seventy five thousand k's of gas

640
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 7: by rail is a big thing. It's been driven the

641
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 7: key partnerships that have come together in order to deliver

642
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 7: on this is obviously it's based on clean fuel, clean

643
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 7: steel in terms of the construction of the pipeline, the

644
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 7: ideas to reduce the carbon footprint by seventy five percent

645
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 7: by using clean energy, and two key partners that have

646
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 7: come together with the African players, Germany SMS Group and

647
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 7: the US Waste Coupe. So it's a positive initiative. It's

648
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 7: a it's a very ambitious project. A lot of money

649
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 7: is going to be spent, but they're putting pen to

650
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 7: paper and it's going to I think it's going to

651
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 7: cover forty sub seven African countries and Ethiopia, which is

652
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 7: usually a birthplace of most big African ideas like the

653
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 7: OU is going to be signatory for this project.

654
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 2: But it's going to have an impact everywhere.

655
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 7: No, it will, because I mean where does this sort

656
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 7: of fall under If you think about the African Continental

657
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 7: Free trade agreement, free movement of goods and people. This

658
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 7: is spot on in terms of that. One of the

659
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 7: big challenges we have in Africa, Steven is you know

660
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 7: very well that there about six hundred million people who

661
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 7: don't have access to electricity or power, and we've seen

662
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 7: a lot of initiatives around this. So this is an

663
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 7: element of beinging energy. I think the estimated number of

664
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 7: people who benefit just from a beneficiation perspective is one

665
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 7: point two billion. But then think from a value chained perspective,

666
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 7: from an eco ecosystem, jobs create and it's not just

667
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 7: it's not a Chinese place the way I understand, it's

668
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 7: actually quite a Pan African multinational place. So it's a

669
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 7: humongous project. This such an English world world, but ultimately

670
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 7: I think to bring the right impact in what Africa

671
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 7: needs from an infrastructure perspective.

672
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 2: Sure, the United States has signed a new deal with Rwanda,

673
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 2: and very interesting to see those two countries sort of

674
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 2: teaming up. And this is actually about health.

675
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 7: It's about health, and this is on the bank. Obviously,

676
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 7: we know that President ka Garment and President Shakedo in

677
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 7: the US designed a piece deal. Although I heard rumors

678
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 7: today that the guys are no longer trusting each other.

679
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 7: But coming back to reality, the US has invested about

680
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 7: two hundred and twenty eight million US dollars and this

681
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 7: is specifically into the health space. They've got any initiative

682
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 7: called America First Global Health Strategy. I can see you smiling,

683
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 7: Stephen on the name. But I think the key thing

684
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 7: about this, Stephen, that if it does work out, which

685
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,439
Speaker 7: is a good idea, they've moved away as America from

686
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 7: investing in pure aid and the idea is that it's

687
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 7: a strategic partnership, so they'll co invest with Rwanda. Why

688
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 7: is Wanda quite key? The reason is, wonder you remember

689
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 7: from an a FCFT perspective, from an African perspective, they've

690
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,760
Speaker 7: become the sort of the innovative biotech hub with regards

691
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 7: to develop developing vaccines, developing pharmaceutical solutions on the continent.

692
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 7: So if this two and twenty eight many US dollars

693
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 7: and it's supposed to be spread out over five years,

694
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 7: has got the vision and the deliverables that it's committed to,

695
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 7: and if it's a sustainable model in terms of helping

696
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 7: pure HIV, AIDS, malaria, TB, and polio, then it's definitely

697
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 7: a step in the right direction in terms of the

698
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 7: bigger picture for Africa and obviously East Africa.

699
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 2: And wander Obviously we need peace in that region though,

700
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 2: and I know that Trump likes to kind of almost

701
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 2: enforce a piece. I don't know nearly as much as

702
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 2: about the conflict between the DRC and the M twenty

703
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,919
Speaker 2: eight and all the race M twenty three and Rwanda,

704
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: except to say has been going on for so long.

705
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 2: You can't just impose a piece. It's a bad piece.

706
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 7: And that has been the complexity of the piece in

707
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 7: Africa is that that has been scored so long, and

708
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 7: the qure it of it obviously is the issue of

709
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 7: the precious minerals that are there and the dynamics around that.

710
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 7: So I think it's easier to say than done. But

711
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,839
Speaker 7: we just pray and hope that it will, that peace

712
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 7: will be find and a solution will be found. But ultimately,

713
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 7: you know, you you don't throw the baby with the bathwater.

714
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 7: If this two twenty eight million dollars lens in that

715
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 7: pharmaceutical innovative have been run and makes the positive impact,

716
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 7: so be it.

717
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:39,399
Speaker 2: And then Ibrahim Muhamma from Ghana, the first African to

718
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 2: top the annual Art Powerless.

719
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 7: Big Achievement Stephen. This is an art award that is

720
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 7: analyzed by thirty anonymous experts from around the world and

721
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 7: judges and it's been running for twenty four years. The

722
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 7: first time in African has won it. Ibrah Mohamma from

723
00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 7: Ghana and uses a very unique style of He uses

724
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,479
Speaker 7: old hospital beds and discarded trained carriers. Uh And also

725
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 7: one of the key things that he also does Stephen,

726
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 7: is that he actually used a drapery art piece which

727
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 7: had which had to be designed or built or sworn

728
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 7: sawn sawn on a football stagium. That's how big the

729
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 7: material was. So he's number one and quite an achievement.

730
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 7: And he was educated at Kama Kuma University, obviously quite

731
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 7: significant from a historical perspective. And it's it's it's I

732
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 7: think it's a great African story that we've had great talent.

733
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 7: I've been to Ghana a number of times. In Akra,

734
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,280
Speaker 7: there's an art market that he said that's always fabulous

735
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 7: and I can never live with it. So for him

736
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 7: and Ghana and Africa, it's a big thumbs.

737
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:46,240
Speaker 2: Up and art seis Mattic I didn't know, Rotundo and Dingue.

738
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 2: They're discussing some of the top business stories on our continent.

739
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 1: The best of The Money Show and seven seven o two.

740
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 2: This week we spoke to Wendy Nola, your consumer Ninja.

741
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 2: She was talking about the importance of knowing the start

742
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 2: date if your warranty and service plan when you buy

743
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: a new car. If you don't check, you might actually

744
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 2: lose some of the full coverage period because the car

745
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,720
Speaker 2: can sometimes spend some time on the dealership a lot.

746
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 2: If you get it wrong, you might have to avoid

747
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,760
Speaker 2: some you might have to actually pay some unexpected repair costs,

748
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 2: and you also, of course want to stay on top

749
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: of those required service schedules.

750
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 6: Hello, steven years, It's normally just a year's discrepancy, and

751
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 6: I've had quite a few of these cases, not a deluge,

752
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 6: but enough so, and the person normally only finds out

753
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 6: when they go to take the car for the first service. Right, So,

754
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 6: you think you think that if you buy a new car,

755
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 6: the date of the start date of the warranty, the

756
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 6: service plan, the maintenance plan, which all carry a lot

757
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 6: of value, at a huge amount of value, you think

758
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 6: it should be the day you drive the shining new

759
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 6: car off the shore and floor. But in these cases,

760
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 6: when they go for the first service, the dealership will say,

761
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 6: but you've missed a service, and it turns out the

762
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 6: car was registered actually the year before, and they call

763
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,760
Speaker 6: it a pre sale. That word could apply to other things,

764
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 6: but one of the words, the terms that's used to

765
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 6: describe it is a pre sale. And there are a

766
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 6: number of ways. There's reasons for this. So I was

767
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 6: once told in a couple of cases that it was

768
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 6: a sale that fell through at the last moment, so

769
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 6: it was registered in the name of would be buyer,

770
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 6: the warranty, et cetera was activated, and then it fell

771
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 6: through and they never disclosed it. Or it could be

772
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:48,360
Speaker 6: the dealership registering with the or the yeah, registering a sale,

773
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 6: OM reports to NAMSA to get to meet the targets

774
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 6: and then the car is sold a little while later. Yeah,

775
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 6: it it can be prejudicial, as you can imagine.

776
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it can also cost you a huge

777
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 2: amount of money. How does this sort of thing then happen?

778
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm guessing you've been looking at one of

779
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:12,320
Speaker 2: these cases and this has affected someone quite strongly. It has.

780
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 6: So in November last year, a Debra traded in her

781
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:17,800
Speaker 6: car and Master dealership in Hutting and she bought a

782
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 6: Cherry teag four Pro as new with just three hundred

783
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 6: and fifty kilometers on it. So the dealership had bought

784
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 6: the car and sold to them as new from a

785
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 6: Cherry dealership right when she took it for its first

786
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 6: service last month, so a year after she bought it,

787
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 6: she was told that a service had been missed and

788
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 6: the vehicle reflects on Cherry's system. So she took a

789
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 6: car to a Cherry dealership. Right, it reflects on Cherry

790
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 6: system as a twenty three model, not a twenty twenty

791
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 6: four model. But it's inatu's registration certificate is actually has

792
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 6: it as a twenty twenty four model, So it's it's

793
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 6: she tried to sell it to I don't know we

794
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 6: about cars, for example, they would not they would take

795
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 6: it as a twenty four model. Would be fine, But

796
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 6: what she's missed a year of service, maintenance and warranty,

797
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 6: and she wanted to know, she wanted readers. She either

798
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 6: wanted a new car or she wanted some kind of

799
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 6: discount given to her as a refund.

800
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 2: What do you think would have been fair here. I mean,

801
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 2: this is quite a strange thing, and she should she

802
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 2: should have been told beforehand what the real story was.

803
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 2: I mean that for me would be the note of course.

804
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 6: I mean the Consumer Protection Act is all about disclosure

805
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 6: and letting the consumer make a informed decision. So the

806
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 6: dealer and I had no reason to not believe him.

807
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 6: He said he bought when he bought the car that

808
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 6: charity little didn't disclosed any pre sale. He bought it

809
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 6: as a new car, and he thought all was well.

810
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 6: He seemed pretty reasonable. I engaged with him. I said, look,

811
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 6: the point is that this buy I should not be

812
00:42:54,920 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 6: produced at all, so she needs extra year's warranty, service

813
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 6: plan and maintenance plan. The good news was that she

814
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 6: was happy with the car and it'd been driving for

815
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 6: a year, no problem, mechanically sound, all good. So I said, well,

816
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 6: you haven't mentioned in their correspondence. I saw they hadn't

817
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:18,919
Speaker 6: mentioned anything about the warranty, so that needs to be fixed.

818
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 6: That's a big one. You can't miss out on a

819
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 6: year as warranty and also the maintenance plan. So in

820
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 6: the end he's going to make a refund. In other words,

821
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 6: he give her something to compensate her and make sure

822
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 6: he's gone to Cherry. They've spoken to the OEM and

823
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 6: they're going to sort out between them that she will

824
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 6: get those extra years on all those three covers. So

825
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 6: all good, But again I just thought it was a

826
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 6: good I don't think we ever spoken about it about

827
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 6: this particular thing, Steven. It's not something you think to

828
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 6: check on a new car, so it's deftibly the question

829
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 6: to ask, yeah.

830
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 2: Isn't isn't a problem then that it's actually a twenty

831
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 2: twenty three model and not a twenty twenty four.

832
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 1: I mean, that's still going to.

833
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 2: Be a problem.

834
00:43:57,880 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 6: I don't know, it's still a twenty twenty four model.

835
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 6: She's registered as the first owner, and the you know,

836
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 6: just registration certificate what do we used to call a

837
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 6: logbook in the old days, has it as a twenty

838
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 6: twenty four model. The only place that it's the twenty

839
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 6: twenty three appeers is with Cherry itself. So and there's

840
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 6: been you know, undertakings and whatever that she will never

841
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 6: be preduced by that, and I'm now a witness to that,

842
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 6: so I'll make sure it doesn't happen. But bottom line

843
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 6: is you need to ask, even in a new car.

844
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 6: When is that warrant? When are the warranties and plans

845
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 6: going to be activated? It must be today when I

846
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 6: take delivery of the car, and just ask that question

847
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 6: upfronts that you don't get the nasty shock at your

848
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 6: first service.

849
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 2: I mean, once again, it's back to this. You've got

850
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 2: to read the fine print, and you've got to before

851
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,240
Speaker 2: you go in. I've always thought it's a good idea

852
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: to take a list of questions that you've caught about.

853
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 6: Yes, I just I'm talking about this because I mean

854
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 6: even I wouldn't have thought that this could be a

855
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,240
Speaker 6: thing something you needed to check until I got these cases.

856
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 6: So to add that one to the list is query

857
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 6: start date of warranty, service plan and maintenance plan.

858
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,240
Speaker 2: An important conversation there with Wendy Nolas. So many issues

859
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 2: about buying cars that she comes to us with and

860
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 2: that's because of what she hears from you. You know

861
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:16,240
Speaker 2: how to get in touch with her. So many issues

862
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 2: around buying cars.

863
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,479
Speaker 4: Seven Notes is the best of the Money Show from

864
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 4: this week.

865
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 2: You've been listening to the best bits of the Money

866
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 2: Show are digests of some of the most important, thoughtful

867
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Speaker 2: and interesting comments this week. If you'd like to hear more,

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Speaker 2: please go to our website or your podcast app and

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Speaker 2: search for The Money Show. Thanks for being with us

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Speaker 2: this week. The Money Show back with you six o'clock

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Speaker 2: on Monday. Have a good weekend.